The euro, pound, and other risk assets continued to rise during the European session. Apparently, many market participants are still encouraged by the possibility that the US and Iran may sign an agreement to suspend hostilities for 45 days. This geopolitical rally is expected to put pressure on the dollar, as it reduces uncertainty and promotes a calmer trading environment. However, it is important to remember that geopolitical tensions remain a variable capable of influencing markets. Any signs of escalation in the conflict could quickly shift trader sentiment and lead to a sell-off in risk assets. Nevertheless, at the moment, positive factors clearly outweigh the negatives.

In the second half of the day, economic data releases are expected that could significantly impact the currency market. In particular, the US ISM Services PMI for March will be published. This indicator is one of the key measures of the US economy, reflecting dynamics in one of its largest sectors. Preliminary analyst expectations point to potentially positive results. The index is expected to remain above 50, which is already a good sign. If the actual data exceeds forecasts, it could strengthen the case for maintaining a tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Strong data from the services sector signals stable economic growth and strengthening consumer demand, which in turn could even support higher interest rates.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1563 ? targets 1.1593 and 1.1628
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1540 ? targets 1.1510 and 1.1480

For GBP/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3250 ? targets 1.3282 and 1.3317
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3215 ? targets 1.3182 and 1.3162

For USD/JPY:

• Buy on a breakout above 159.53 ? targets 159.74 and 159.94
• Sell on a breakout below 159.29 ? targets 159.09 and 158.85

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1575, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1535, on a return to this level

For GBP/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3274, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3231, on a return to this level

For AUD/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.6951, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.6917, on a return to this level

For USD/CAD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3928, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3905, on a return to this level

Analysis: Since January of this year, price movement in the main British pound pair has been driven by a downward wave algorithm. After touching the upper boundary of a strong potential reversal zone, quotes entered a drifting phase, forming a full correction.

Forecast: In the first half of the week, sideways movement along resistance is expected. Closer to the weekend, the downward movement of the pound may resume, likely accompanied by increased volatility after major economic news releases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 1.3410–1.3460

Support:

• 1.3180–1.3130

Recommendations:Selling: No favorable conditions expected for such trades this week.Buying: Relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.

AUD/USD

Analysis: Since December last year, the Australian dollar against the US dollar has been forming a bearish wave. Its middle part (B) was completed last week. At the end of the week, quotes began forming the final part, breaking through intermediate support. At the time of analysis, price is pulling back to this zone to consolidate.

Forecast: In the coming days, sideways movement with an upward bias is expected. After possible pressure on resistance, a reversal and decline toward the support zone may follow.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 0.6960–0.7010

Support:

• 0.6830–0.6780

Recommendations:Buying: Quite risky and may lead to losses.Selling: Possible after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.

USD/CHF

Analysis: On the daily chart, an upward wave has been forming since April last year. The final segment (C) began at the end of January. Price is approaching the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone on the daily timeframe. The wave structure is still incomplete.

Forecast: In the next couple of days, sideways drifting toward resistance is expected. After that, conditions for a reversal may form. A decline may resume closer to the weekend. A spike in volatility and a brief breakout above resistance cannot be ruled out.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 0.8080–0.8130

Support:

• 0.7890–0.7840

Recommendations:Buying: Can be used with small position sizes for intraday trades.Selling: Relevant after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.

EUR/JPY

Analysis: The short-term chart shows the formation of an upward wave in the form of a horizontal flat. Price is moving within a channel between reversal zones of different wave levels. Over the past two weeks, the beginning of the final part (C) has been forming.

Forecast: In the next few days, sideways movement with a downward bias is expected. In the second half of the week, a reversal and renewed upward movement toward resistance are likely.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 184.70–185.20

Support:

• 182.50–182.00

Recommendations:Selling: Limited potential and relatively risky.Buying: Can be considered after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.

EUR/GBP

Analysis: Since April 11 last year, price movement has been driven by a downward wave. Over the past six months, the chart has been forming an unfinished correction in the shape of a shifting flat. The structure is not yet complete.

Forecast: In the coming days, upward movement is expected to continue until completion near resistance. After testing the upper boundary, a reversal and decline may begin, potentially reaching the lower boundary of the established price channel.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 0.8800–0.8850

Support:

• 0.8630–0.8580

Recommendations:Buying: Possible with small position sizes during individual sessions.Selling: Relevant after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.

EUR/CHF

Brief Analysis: On the euro/Swiss franc chart, the short-term trend since early March last year has been downward. Since February, a corrective phase (B) has been developing in the form of an extended flat. From the lower boundary of the reversal zone last week, price has started a downward corrective pullback, forming a reversal wave structure.

Weekly Forecast: Next week, sideways movement with an overall upward bias is expected. After a possible pullback to support early in the week, upward movement may resume. Weekly volatility boundaries are defined by opposing calculated zones.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 0.9270–0.9320

Support:

• 0.9190–0.9140

Recommendations:Buying: Possible with small positions after confirmed reversal signals near support.Selling: Limited potential, high risk.

Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A–B–C). The analysis focuses on the latest unfinished wave on each timeframe. Dashed lines indicate expected movements.

Important: Wave analysis does not account for the duration of price movements over time.

Analysis: On the chart of the euro, price movement since late January has been defined by a downward wave algorithm. Over the past month, the wave structure has formed a corrective flat. The price extremes have created a horizontal channel. The final part (C) is developing within the correction structure.

Forecast: Next week, sideways movement is expected within opposing zones. Early in the week, a downward movement toward the lower boundary of the channel is likely. Growth may resume closer to the weekend.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 1.1630–1.1680

Support:

• 1.1450–1.1400

Recommendations:Selling: May be profitable with reduced position size and short intraday trades.Buying: Premature until reversal signals appear near resistance.

USD/JPY

Analysis: The upward wave that began in April last year is forming its final part (C). Since March 13, a counter correction has been developing, taking the form of a shifting flat and not yet complete.

Forecast: In the coming days, sideways movement along the support zone is expected. A brief dip below support is possible. Later, conditions for a reversal may form, with growth resuming in the second half of the week.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 160.90–161.40

Support:

• 158.80–158.30

Recommendations:Selling: High risk, low potential.Buying: Relevant after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.

GBP/JPY

Analysis: Since July last year, the main direction has been upward. After a zigzag wave ended in late January, a new upward segment began forming during a flat phase. The middle part (B) of this wave is nearing completion.

Forecast: In the next couple of days, sideways movement with a slight downward bias is expected. A reversal may form near support, with upward movement resuming in the second half of the week.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 212.50–213.00

Support:

• 209.40–208.90

Recommendations:Selling: High risk, low potential.Buying: Attractive after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.

USD/CAD

Analysis: The 4-hour chart shows the formation of an upward wave starting from late January. The structure is not yet complete. Since late March, a downward corrective move with reversal potential has been forming.

Forecast: In the next few days, sideways movement is expected, with a possible rise toward resistance. In the second half of the week, a reversal and decline toward support is likely. This support aligns with a strong higher timeframe reversal zone.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 1.3960–1.4010

Support:

• 1.3870–1.3820

Recommendations:Selling: Risky, limited potential.Buying: Possible after signals appear; upside is limited by resistance.

NZD/USD

Analysis: The short-term unfinished wave is downward, starting from late January. In recent weeks, an internal correction has formed. The downward move since April 3 has reversal potential.

Forecast: At the start of the week, sideways movement is expected. A temporary upward move toward resistance is possible. After that, a reversal and continued decline are likely. The support zone marks the lower boundary of the expected weekly range.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 0.5730–0.5780

Support:

• 0.5600–0.5550

Recommendations:Buying: High risk, low potential.Selling: May become the main strategy after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.

Gold

Analysis: The short-term wave in gold has been downward since January 29. Over the past two months, prices have moved sideways, forming a corrective part (B) in the shape of a shifting flat. The correction is not yet complete. Price is approaching the lower boundary of a higher timeframe reversal zone.

Forecast: In the next couple of days, sideways movement is most likely, possibly with a decline toward support. In the second half of the week, volatility may increase, with a reversal and renewed upward movement.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

• 4780.0–4800.0

Support:

• 4600.0–4580.0

Recommendations:Selling: Limited potential, risk of losses.Buying: Relevant after confirmed signals near support.

Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A–B–C). The analysis focuses on the latest unfinished wave on each timeframe. Dashed lines indicate expected movements.

Important: Wave analysis does not account for the duration of price movements in time.

The wave situation on the hourly chart has taken on a rather complex form. All recent waves have formed within approximately the same price range and are roughly equal in size. Thus, it might be best to conclude that a sideways market is present. In my opinion, this is not exactly a sideways market. Rather, these are erratic movements formed as a result of constantly changing geopolitical conditions. At the moment, traders do not understand what to expect next in the Middle East.

On Friday, the news background gave bears the opportunity to continue their offensive, which had faded in recent weeks. At present, it is clear that the worst-case scenario in the Middle East has already been priced in by traders, and new factors are needed for further decline. On Friday, such factors appeared. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the creation of nearly 180,000 jobs, far exceeding more modest forecasts. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, while traders had expected 4.4%. Thus, the US dollar had every chance to continue rising on Friday, but traders once again did not consider economic statistics an important event. It is worth recalling that in recent weeks, economic data has rarely been taken into account by traders. Most attention remains focused on geopolitics. Friday made it clear that the situation in the currency market has not changed—traders are still tracking only geopolitics. Therefore, in the absence of escalation in the Middle East, a sideways movement may continue this week.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the US dollar. Thus, the decline may continue toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1474. Earlier, the pair closed above the descending trend channel, which slightly improves the outlook for bulls compared to bears. However, geopolitics remains the decisive factor. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 143 long positions and 8,915 short positions. Thus, in just seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has evaporated. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 200,000, while short positions total 199,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to view the euro with significant interest. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention is currently focused on the Middle East, where the conflict continues to intensify and expand geographically. Therefore, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the dollar is extracting maximum benefit from this situation.

News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• US – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The April 6 economic calendar contains one fairly important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be felt in the second half of Monday, unless traders ignore this report as well.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.1577 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1440. These positions can still be held. Buy trades will become possible if the price consolidates above 1.1577, targeting 1.1696.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation has once again shifted to "bearish." The last completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the last downward wave confidently broke the previous low. The news background remains weak for the pound, and geopolitics provides bears with almost complete dominance in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the strengthening of the US currency in recent months. Bulls can only hope for the end of the war in the Middle East, a drop in oil prices, and a ceasefire by all parties involved.

The news on Friday once again supported the bears, but they chose not to take advantage of this opportunity in the form of strong US labor market and unemployment data. Over the weekend, Donald Trump confirmed his intention to strike Iran's energy infrastructure and other targets if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Since the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked at the moment, traders are expecting a new escalation of the conflict. In this case, bears may launch a new offensive and continue to ignore economic data. Today, the US ISM Services PMI for March will be released. If Donald Trump does not carry out a new strike on Iran, traders may react to this report, as well as Friday's labor market and unemployment data, which were likely ignored due to Easter. Thus, I expect active movements during the US trading session on Monday.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, which gave the bulls absolutely nothing. A rebound from the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3340 occurred, followed by a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the start of a new decline. A consolidation below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3215 will increase the probability of further decline toward the 1.3044 level. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,845, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively 51,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have been actively increasing short positions and reducing longs, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction began while the bullish trend was still intact, and then the Middle East conflict started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the sole driver of the US dollar's strength.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

• US – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The April 6 economic calendar contains one important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be present on Monday, but mainly in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below the 1.3177–1.3199 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3016. Buying is possible if there is a rebound from the 1.3177–1.3199 level, targeting 1.3341–1.3352.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

Why should we not expect major changes? Primarily, this is because the war in the Middle East produces at least two important sources of uncertainty. The first is when it will end, or in other words, the timing of its conclusion. The second is what the outcome will be.

The first factor shows that the US and Israel have clearly underestimated Iran and its retaliatory actions, which is already leading to disruption of global trade and the economy. The inability to forecast the conflict's end could collapse the economies of entire regions that depend on gas and oil supplies from the Middle East. For example, some believe that Europe could plunge into a severe crisis within a week or ten days. Equally important is the impact of the second factor, the war's outcome, which also scares investors. Against this backdrop investors are exercising extreme caution, which is reflected in the broadly sideways dynamics of asset prices.

Another important factor, which stands apart but clearly indicates market participants' priorities, is the reaction to the release of major US economic data. The nonfarm payrolls report published on Friday showed an unexpected increase in March to 178,000 against a forecast of 60,000. Markets simply ignored that report. If one could excuse this by noting that Friday was a holiday ahead of Catholic Easter, today's market dynamics point to a complete disregard for the news. This is happening because developments in the Middle East are the main driver for markets, and they will remain so until it becomes truly clear when and how the war will end.

What can be expected in markets in the near term?

I believe that, against the background of the Middle East war, overall market dynamics will form within sideways ranges and not much beyond that.

Forecast of the day:

USD/JPY

The pair shows a probability of a local reversal downward and a possible decline first to 58.50, and then to 157.50 after breaching support at 159.40. The level for selling could be 159.24.

GOLD

The spot price of gold is also likely to trade within the 4,573.00–4,798.00 range. The most suitable trading approach could be range trading. After a rise to 4,798.00, a renewed reversal down to 4,573.00 can be expected. The level for selling might be 4,781.50.

Iran has already rejected Trump's latest ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stating that it will fully resume operations only after receiving compensation for war-related damage. Tehran, meanwhile, continued strikes on energy facilities in neighboring Persian Gulf states, including the headquarters of Kuwait's national oil company.

Another Trump's press conference is expected today, and the ultimatum deadline expires tomorrow at 03:00 Moscow time.

All of this indicates that tensions in the region have reached a critical point. The new rhetoric coming out of Washington is worrying international observers, who see signs of a possible intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, up to the commencement of a ground operation. Threats against civilian infrastructure, such as power plants, run counter to international norms and could lead to catastrophic humanitarian consequences.

Iran, for its part, demonstrates determination to defend its interests and to respond to external pressure. The statement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened only after compensation for war damage highlights deep grievances and a desire to secure recognition of losses on Tehran's terms. While this position sounds like an ultimatum, it reflects Iran's aim to restore what it sees as fairness and to stabilize the situation on its own conditions.

Strikes on energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Kuwait, are a clear signal of Iran's willingness to use asymmetric levers. Such actions against critical infrastructure may have far-reaching consequences for the entire regional economy and energy security. This complicates an already fragile balance of power and increases the risk of wider conflict contagion.

Yesterday, Axios reported that the US, Iran, and regional intermediaries are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end to hostilities, which briefly eased pressure on risk assets. However, the chances of reaching an agreement within the next 48 hours are small.

Recall that on March 26 Trump gave Iran a 10-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which also expires tomorrow.

On the FX market, should the war in the Middle East worsen, the US dollar will most likely quickly resume gains against risk assets, including the euro and the pound.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to consider how to take the 1.1540 level. Only this will allow targeting a test of 1.1590. From there, a climb to 1.1630 would be possible, but achieving that without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1662. In case the instrument falls only to around 1.1510, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If there is no one there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1485 or to open long positions from 1.1445.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3230. Only this will allow targeting 1.3260, above which it will be rather difficult to break through. The most distant target is the 1.3300 area. In the event of a fall, bears will try to seize control of 1.3200. If they succeed, a break of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3160, with a prospect of reaching 1.3130.

Moving aside from that, I'd like to draw attention to yesterday's interview with Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy. In his view, Bitcoin has prevailed. His statement that "the global consensus is: BTC is digital capital" is an important point for understanding the nature of this digital currency. There is no longer room for cyclical speculation — the four-year cycle that long served as a guide for investors is now considered outdated. Instead, attention is shifting to fundamental forces — capital flows that will determine Bitcoin's growth trajectory.

According to Saylor, this paradigm shift opens a new era for BTC, where its value will directly correlate with inflows from both traditional and digital investments. Saylor emphasizes that banking and digital credit will become the main growth drivers. As the global economy searches for new ways to preserve and grow capital, Bitcoin, in his view, has established itself as a reliable digital asset. This transition from a speculative instrument to a fundamental store of capital is key to further adoption and integration of BTC into the global financial system.

However, despite such a confident forecast, Saylor does not ignore potential threats. He warns against "bad ideas that will lead to iatrogenic changes to the protocol." This subtle but important remark points to Bitcoin's vulnerability to incompetent or malicious actions that could undermine its decentralized nature and foundational principles. Any attempts to artificially change the protocol driven by short?term interests or misunderstanding could have catastrophic consequences, threatening all progress made. In this context, responsibility for preserving the integrity of the Bitcoin protocol falls not only on developers but on the entire community.

In the crypto community, Saylor's words are not just a forecast but a call for a thoughtful approach to Bitcoin's development and investment. It is a declaration of victory, but a victory that requires constant vigilance and commitment to core principles.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are now targeting a return to $69,600, which would open a direct path to $71,400, and then to $72,500. The furthest target is the high around $74,600; overcoming that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a drop, I expect buyers at $68,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $66,400. The most distant target on the downside is $64,900.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,140 opens a direct path to $2,160. The furthest target is the high around $2,238; overcoming that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,117. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,096. The most distant downside target is $2,037.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The theme of US exceptionalism is restraining the S&P 500's slide, especially after an impressive employment gain of 178k in March and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. Investors believe that the Middle East conflict will inflict more pain on Europe and Asia than on the United States and therefore continue to hold US stocks. Meanwhile, the temporal pattern of buying in the first two days of the week and selling in the last two gives them an opportunity to profit.

S&P 500 and energy stock performance

Indeed, Monday began with good news. Rumors circulated that Iran, the US, and a group of regional intermediaries are negotiating a 45-day ceasefire. If a truce follows through, it could lead to peace, which would justify optimism. As a result, the S&P 500 could kick off the week with a gap up. Ten of 11 sectors that were heavily sold off could benefit from easing geopolitical tensions. Only energy has been the outperformer.

Investors could not find a place to hide. Previously defensive assets included small-cap stocks with low forward-P/E valuations, but in March, even they were swept up in the sell?off. Initially, markets feared that higher oil prices would accelerate inflation and force central banks to raise or keep interest rates high. Now they are weighing recession risks from overly tight monetary policy.

S&P 500 and Russell performance

The market continues to swing from hot to cold. Rumors of US-Iran talks do not square easily with Donald Trump's threats. The White House owner promised to bomb every power plant and bridge if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would force the country to "live in hell."

Nevertheless, Trump's ultimatum deadlines keep getting pushed out, and the president's coarse rhetoric suggests he is losing patience. The situation is clearly spinning out of control. Not much time remains before his promised 2–3 weeks to end the Middle East conflict. And yet, here we are.

Technically, the daily chart shows that a breakout of fair value at 6,590 followed by a new local high at 6,610 would increase the odds of a continued rally and could justify short-term long positions. Conversely, a retreat from resistance at the 6,635 moving average and the 6,665 pivot level would reopen the case for short entries.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday, nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 last month, the strongest print since late 2024 after revisions showed a deeper decline in February. Economists broadly expected employment to rebound in March following a strike by more than 30,000 healthcare workers and severe winter weather that contributed to a sharp February decline. The firm payroll gain will likely increase the Federal Reserve's focus on inflationary risks amid a rapid rise in energy prices driven by the war in Iran.

The Fed's reaction to the fresh labor market data will be a key factor for financial markets next week. Strong employment readings could push the Fed toward more aggressive action to counter inflationary pressure and the amplified rise in energy prices. That, in turn, could raise borrowing costs for businesses and consumers and further strengthen the dollar.

The Iran war, now just over a month old, remains a major source of uncertainty for global markets. The sharp oil price spike caused by geopolitical tensions undermines efforts to stabilize the US economy and presents central banks with the difficult task of balancing support for growth against inflation control. Market participants will be watching developments in the Middle East closely.

Overall, Friday's US labor data pointed to solid dynamics, underscoring the complex interaction between growth, inflation, and geopolitical factors. The durability of the current dollar strength and its global implications will depend on Fed decisions and how the Middle East situation evolves.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, although that partly reflects Americans leaving the labor force. The employment-to-population ratio declined to 61.9% in March, the lowest since 2021. The employment rate for 25–54-year-olds (prime-age workers) also fell. The number of people working part time for economic reasons rose.

As for the EUR/USD technical analysis, buyers should consider taking 1.1540. This will mak it possible to target a test of 1.1590. If successful, the euro could extend gains to 1.1630, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1662. On the downside, I would expect meaningful buyer activity only around 1.1510. In case of muted interest there, it would be prudent to wait for a break of the 1.1485 low or to open long positions at 1.1445.

Regarding the current GBP/USD technical setup, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance level of 1.3230. This will make it possible to target 1.3260. Breaking above that level may prove difficult. The next major target is around 1.3300. On a decline, bears will attempt to seize control of the market at 1.3200. If they succeed, a break of that level would deal a serious blow to bulls and push the British currency down to a low near 1.3160, with scope to reach 1.3130.

However, US intelligence is far more skeptical. Security analysts warn that Tehran is unlikely to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. Control of the planet's main oil artery remains Iran's single real lever over Washington. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has already responded to Trump's threats, saying the region will "burn to the ground." Tehran's position remains hardline: war crimes will not force Iran to surrender, and the only way out is respect for the rights of the Iranian people. Meanwhile, Iran has begun implementing an electoral blockade system.

According to Tasnim agency, the government and armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels carrying humanitarian and essential cargoes. However, the "pass" is issued exclusively by Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization. Iraq has been given a special status: the Iranian military command officially exempted the "brotherly country" from any shipping restrictions, enabling Baghdad to continue exporting oil despite the broader crisis and thereby driving a wedge into the coalition of Arab states.

The diplomatic gulf between the parties remains enormous. Iran's Foreign Ministry openly states its readiness to strike mirror targets on US infrastructure in the region if Iranian facilities are attacked. Tehran has refused direct meetings with US officials, calling American demands "unacceptable." The world is therefore holding its breath for April 7 — a date that may become either the biggest deal of the decade or the start of a total energy war, where not only Iran's sovereignty but the stability of the entire global financial system is at stake. Trump is personalizing targets (bridges and power plants); Iran is signaling loyalty to humanitarian missions and allies like Iraq while keeping its finger on the "nuclear button" of the global economy.

Between statistics and reality

March US labor market data (+178k jobs) may at first glance look "acceptable," but a deeper look reveals a pathological dependence of the whole system on a single sector. Since May 2025 (the moment of the trend break), the US economy has effectively stopped generating private sector jobs if healthcare is excluded:

• Healthcare and social assistance: +605k (since May 2025)
• Rest of the private sector: ?202k
• Public sector: ?251k

We are observing a dangerous pattern: growth is occurring only where human labor is hardest to automate (caregiving, healthcare, food service). Sectors that make up two-thirds of the economy are steadily cutting staff. Historically, such a configuration has always led to a full-scale crisis within 6–9 months. The information sector is going through a "black streak." Record job cuts here directly correlate with the rise of generative AI. The negative macro effect of replacing people with neural networks currently outweighs the gains from higher productivity. Industries are being partially destroyed faster than new supporting sub-sectors are being created.

The drop in unemployment is largely a statistical mirage. Labor force participation has fallen to 61.9%. People simply stop looking for work and drop out of the statistics, creating an illusion of stability. The situation of "low hiring — low firing" indicates that businesses are frozen, waiting for the outcome of the war with Iran and the energy shock. Trump's 2026 economy rests on two pillars:

• investment in data centers
• endless expansion of nursing staff

Excluding healthcare, job cuts are happening at spring 2008 rates. If the productivity gains from AI do not materialize explosively in the coming quarters, a macro break around mid-year will become inevitable. For this reason, some Wall Street investors are taking a wait-and-see stance.

Oil at $120 and emptying IT offices

The current Middle East crisis has long ceased to be only a problem for gas stations. High energy prices are transmitted directly into the cost of living. In March, the CPI for food jumped 2.4% to 128.5 points — the highest level since last autumn. Prices for grain, sugar and vegetable oils are rising across the chain: from fertilizer costs to logistics. The war has given a powerful boost to proponents of the green transition, but as long as the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, the trajectories of importers and exporters continue to diverge, deepening the global crisis.

OPEC+ and "theoretical" output. On April 5, at a meeting of the OPEC+ eight (Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Oman, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria), a preliminary agreement was reached to raise quotas by 206,000 barrels per day in May. But Bloomberg analysts and market experts are unanimous: this decision is purely symbolic. When the Persian Gulf is engulfed in flames, increasing paper quotas does nothing for the physical market. The most frightening figure today is the estimated real drop in output in Persian Gulf countries.

Analysts estimate that the market has lost between 7 and 10 million barrels per day because of the conflict. OPEC+ is trying to preserve the appearance of control and to signal an intention to return to production "once the guns fall silent." But while the JMMC discusses deal compliance, the real oil deficit continues to push the global economy toward stagflation. One month of armed conflict with Iran has presented the United States with a harsh bill: preliminary estimates put direct and indirect economic losses at around $45 billion.

What does Iran cost the Americans?

The first month of a full-scale armed conflict with Iran has delivered a heavy bill to the United States, estimated at $30–45 billion. Each American is effectively paying about $3 a day out of pocket for the operation. The main burden falls on the defense budget, which has already been allocated tens of billions of dollars. But the pain is felt most acutely at the pumps. The jump in oil prices from $79 to $110 per barrel triggered a chain reaction of higher gasoline, logistics and food costs.

At the same time, the US financial sector is bearing hidden but far larger losses:

• The stock market has lost trillions of dollars in market capitalization.
• This has dealt a heavy blow to pension accounts and personal savings for millions.
• Inflationary pressure is forcing mortgage rates higher, making housing less affordable.

Analysts' baseline scenario is bleak. Any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger another wave of inflation that could finally undermine consumer demand in the country. Against this backdrop, the Trump administration is mounting a large-scale operation to replace the Fed leadership. The Senate is preparing to consider Kevin Warsh's nomination for the Fed chair; hearings in the Banking Committee are scheduled for April 16. However, the process is stalling: influential Senator Thom Tillis has already said he will not allow Warsh's confirmation until the investigation into Powell is complete, creating a serious political obstacle for the White House's plans.

The main locomotive of spending has become the Pentagon's direct combat expenditures. But the population feels the crisis most sharply at the pumps. Oil prices jumping from $79 to $110 per barrel amid threats in the Strait of Hormuz have produced multibillion-dollar additional costs for American households. The economic damage is not limited to fuel prices. An inflationary spiral is beginning to unwind across:

• transportation services
• food
• essential goods

Despite the "military" uncertainty, Goldman Sachs analysts are trying to calm the markets. In their latest report, the bank forecasts that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year. They argue that the current supply shock is limited compared with the crises of the 1970s and that current monetary policy is already sufficiently tight. CME FedWatch confirms this cautious stance: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in April is put at 99.5%. The market is frozen in fragile equilibrium, waiting to see which will be the decisive factor — a geopolitical detonation or monetary restraint.

6 April

6 April, 16:30 / Canada / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 45.8 / actual: 46.5 / forecast: 48.0 / USD/CAD – down

Business activity in Canada's services sector in February 2026 showed signs of stabilization, rising to 46.5 points. Despite the 15th consecutive month of falling new orders, the rate of decline eased to the most moderate level since last autumn. The sector has been losing jobs for the sixth month in a row. However, business optimism reached a peak on expectations of an influx of tourists ahead of major sporting events. If the March index fails to reach the forecasted 48.0 points, the Canadian dollar may strengthen.

6 April, 17:00 / USA / ISM Services PMI for March / prev.: 53.8 / actual: 56.1 / forecast: 55.0 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

The US services sector in February 2026 showed a strong upswing. The ISM index rose to 56.1, marking the fastest expansion in three and a half years. The sharp rise in business activity was supported by:

• a steep increase in hiring
• an inflow of new orders (a 17-month high)

Although price pressures remain above average, they eased to the lowest level in a year, indicating a gradual slowdown in cost inflation. If the March reading confirms the 55.0 forecast, the dollar index is likely to correct downward.

6 April, 17:00 / USA / ISM Non?Manufacturing New Orders Index for March / prev.: 53.1 / actual: 58.6 / forecast: 57.6 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

The new orders index in the US non-manufacturing sector jumped to 58.6 in February 2026. The reading hit its highest level since September 2024, well above the long-term average of 56.5. Such a sharp pickup in demand signals strong resilience of the US domestic market despite tight monetary conditions. If the March data reach the 57.6 forecast, it will add downward pressure on the dollar.

7 April

7 April, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 56.3 / actual: 52.8 / forecast: 46.6 / AUD/USD – down

Australia's services sector unexpectedly moved into contraction in March 2026 — the PMI plunged to 46.6. This is the first decline in activity in the sector in two years, driven by a sharp drop in domestic demand and business confidence falling to a 20-month low amid the Middle East war. The situation is worsened by three-year-high cost inflation and tariff increases to 2023 levels. If the March index reaches the forecasted 46.6 points, the Australian dollar will weaken.

7 April, 02:30 / Japan / Household spending growth for February / prev.: ?2.6% / actual: ?1.0% / forecast: ?0.7% / USD/JPY – down

Household spending in Japan fell 1.0% year-on-year in January 2026. Although the decline slowed versus December, the result was much weaker than market expectations, which had forecast growth. Recovery in demand for food and household appliances was offset by sharp declines in education and housing. On a monthly basis, personal spending fell 2.5%, indicating persistent fragility in domestic consumption. If February spending contracts to the forecasted -0.7%, the yen will strengthen.

7 April, 04:00 / Australia / Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge for March / prev.: 0.2% / actual: ?0.2% / forecast: 0.5% / AUD/USD – up

Inflationary pressure in Australia unexpectedly "hit the brakes" in February 2026 — the Melbourne Institute gauge fell by 0.2%. This is the first price decline since last August, driven by:

• cheaper fuel
• normalization of supply chains

Despite an annual rate of 3.8%, which remains above the central bank's 2–3% target range, the market views this as progress. If the March data confirm the forecasted 0.5% rise, the Australian dollar will get a boost.

7 April, 08:00 / Japan / Leading Economic Index (Prel) for February / prev.: 110.4 / actual: 112.1 / forecast: 112.5 / USD/JPY – down

The Japanese economy is sending upbeat signals: the leading indicators index jumped to 112.1 in January, the highest in three years. The labor market remains resilient, and consumers, encouraged by Tokyo's stimulus measures, are optimistic (confidence at a 21-month high). Although the result was slightly below forecasts, the overall stabilization trend is clear. If the February reading reaches 112.5, the yen will continue to strengthen.

7 April, 10:55 / Germany / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 52.4 / actual: 53.5 / forecast: 51.2 / EUR/USD – down

Germany's services sector ran into a speed bump in March 2026: the preliminary PMI fell to a seven-month low of 51.2. Five months of rising orders ended due to rising costs and client financial uncertainty. Although the labor market in the sector is still holding up, business expectations have fallen to the year's lows. If the final March reading settles at 51.2, pressure on the euro will increase.

7 April, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 51.9 / forecast: 50.1 / EUR/USD – down

The eurozone services sector in March 2026 is balancing on the edge of stagnation: the PMI fell to 50.1. Growth has virtually exhausted itself, orders are contracting again, and the Middle East war is adding to cost-push inflation. Even modest employment gains cannot hide that the sector is experiencing its weakest period since last spring. If the forecast of 50.1 is confirmed, the euro will continue to decline.

7 April, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 54.0 / actual: 53.9 / forecast: 51.2 / GBP/USD – down

The UK services sector "caught its breath" in March 2026. The PMI eased to 51.2, the weakest six-month result. The biggest hit came from export orders: overseas clients are freezing projects in the Middle East and canceling trips en masse. War-related logistics nightmares have driven up costs, forcing companies to curb hiring. If March's final value is confirmed at 51.2, the pound will face significant pressure.

7 April, 15:15 / USA / ADP Private Sector Weekly Hiring / prev.: 9k / actual: 10k / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile

ADP data show that private sector hiring in the US in early March 2026 remained steadily low. The average weekly increase was 10,000 jobs, nearly unchanged from late February. This "freeze" in hiring activity signals employer caution despite the absence of mass layoffs. The lack of a clear trend in the labor market during this period creates scope for volatility in the dollar index.

7 April, 15:30 / USA / New Orders for Durable Goods (m/m) for February / prev.: 1.3% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 0.7% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

New orders for durable goods in the US rose a moderate 0.4% in January, slowing significantly from December's strong surge. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, dynamics remain within long-term averages (0.25%). This points to a cooling of manufacturing momentum, although the sector remains in expansion. If the February reading approaches the 0.7% forecast, it will be a positive signal for the dollar.

7 April, 17:00 / Canada / Ivey PMI for March / prev.: 50.9 / actual: 56.6 / forecast: 57.2 / USD/CAD – down

Canadian economic activity jumped impressively to 56.6 in February. The Ivey index signals broad expansion supported by active inventory replenishment. However, there is a downside: the employment subindex fell below 50, indicating hiring contraction, and logistics chains have begun to slow again. Nevertheless, overall expansion and easing price pressures favor the Canadian dollar. If March's index reaches 57.2, the loonie may strengthen.

7 April, 18:00 / USA / Median Inflation Expectations for March / prev.: 3.1% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 3.7% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

US consumers became slightly more optimistic in February: median one-year inflation expectations fell to the psychological 3.0% mark. People expect cheaper food, rents and healthcare — the lowest reading in seven months. At the same time, gasoline price expectations rose. Stable longer-term inflation expectations (3% at 3 and 5 years) are reassuring for the Fed. But if March expectations jump to the forecasted 3.7%, this could spur dollar strength.

7 April, 23:30 / USA / API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks / prev.: 2.3 mln bbl / actual: 10.263 mln bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile

The US oil market faced an unexpected "flood": API crude inventories jumped by more than 10.2 million barrels in a week. This massive build completely contradicted forecasts of inventory draws. Although gasoline and distillate stocks fell, such an oil glut is weighing on prices. Brent's reaction will be extremely volatile as markets await official data from the US Department of Energy.

April 8

8 April, 05:00 / New Zealand / Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, press conference / prev.: 2.25% / actual: 2.25% / forecast: 2.25% / NZD/USD – volatile

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its key interest rate at 2.25%, maintaining a wait-and-see approach. The rate remains the main tool for controlling liquidity in the interbank sector. Any hawkish comments from the regulator or hints at future increases in borrowing costs traditionally support the New Zealand dollar. Given the current maintenance of the status quo amid volatile external conditions, the kiwi is moving in mixed directions.

8 April, 09:00 / Germany / Industrial orders growth in February / prev.: 6.4% / actual: -11.1% / forecast: 5.5% / EUR/USD – up

Germany's industry experienced a real shock in January 2026: order volumes plunged by 11.1%. Such a sharp drop is explained by a "high base effect" after an unusually strong December in metal products. Domestic demand fell by 16%, which looks worrying, although the auto industry and defense sector are still growing. Excluding one-off large contracts, the situation looks more stable (-0.4%). If orders recover to the forecasted 5.5% in February, the euro will receive support.

8 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Halifax House Price Index, March / prev.: 0.4% / actual: 1.1% / forecast: 1.3% / GBP/USD – up

The UK housing market showed unexpected vigor in February 2026:

• annual price growth accelerated to 1.3%
• the average house price crossed the psychological level of £301

Drivers were Northern Ireland and Scotland, while London and the South East are still cooling. Rate cuts and rising real wages are supporting buyers despite tight supply. If the March data confirm the forecasted 1.3% increase, the pound will receive strong support amid recovering consumer confidence.

8 April, 10:30 / Eurozone / Construction PMI, March / prev.: 45.3 pts / actual: 46.0 pts / forecast: 46.6 pts / EUR/USD – up

The eurozone construction sector lifted its head slightly in February 2026 — the PMI rose to 46.0 points. Although still in contraction (below 50), the trend is encouraging compared with a poor start to the year. The sector is gradually adapting to current financial conditions, although it remains below the historical average of 47.55 points. If the March index reaches the forecasted 46.6 points, the EUR/USD pair may rise on signs that the sector's downturn is ending.

8 April, 10:30 / Germany / Construction PMI, March / prev.: 44.7 pts / actual: 43.7 pts / forecast: 44.5 pts / EUR/USD – up

German construction went into the red again in February 2026. The PMI fell to 43.7 points.

• Residential and commercial sectors are pulling the industry down.

• New orders are declining at the steepest half-year pace due to harsh winter conditions and higher commodity cost.

Nevertheless, business expectations jumped to 2020 highs. Developers are optimistic about future infrastructure projects. If the March index recovers to the forecasted 44.5 points, it would be a signal for the euro to strengthen.

8 April, 11:30 / United Kingdom / Construction PMI, March / prev.: 46.4 pts / actual: 44.5 pts / forecast: 43.6 pts / GBP/USD – down

UK construction was hit hard in February 2026: the PMI plunged to 44.5 points amid poor weather and weak demand. Residential construction fell especially sharply. Despite the current setback, experts remain optimistic, expecting business conditions to improve by mid-year. If March figures confirm the pessimistic forecast of 43.6 points, the pound will come under pressure due to stagnation in the real economy.

8 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Producer price inflation (annual) in February / prev.: -2.0% / actual: -2.1% / forecast: -1.9% / EUR/USD – up

Deflationary pressure at the producer level in the eurozone intensified in January 2026 — prices fell by 2.1% year-on-year. This is well below the long-term average of 2.51% and indicates persistently weak inflation expectations in the industry. For the ECB, this is an important signal that accommodative monetary conditions may persist. If the February figure moves toward the forecasted -1.9%, it could trigger a moderate rise in the euro amid price stabilization.

8 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Retail sales growth in February / prev.: 1.8% / actual: 2.0% / forecast: 1.8% / EUR/USD – down

Eurozone retail sales rose by 2.0% year-on-year in January 2026. The result exceeded market expectations and the long-term average of 1.18%, confirming resilient consumer demand at the start of the year. Despite high base effects from previous years, the sector shows notable stability, which is a positive sign for the region's domestic market. However, if the February figure cools to the forecasted 1.8%, the euro could weaken against the dollar.

8 April, 17:30 / USA / US crude oil inventories (EIA) / prev.: 6.926 mln bbl / actual: 5.451 mln bbl / forecast: 3.234 mln bbl / Brent – up

US crude inventories for the week ending March 27, 2026, increased by 5.5 million barrels, reaching 461.6 million. The sharp build—well above forecasts—occurred against lower refinery runs and reduced net imports. Market pessimism was partly offset by deep draws in distillate stocks (down 2.1 million barrels) and gasoline. If the forecasted inventory rise of 3.234 million barrels is confirmed, Brent prices will strengthen.

7 April, 19:35 / US / Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee /

USDX 8 April, 00:50 / US / Speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson /

USDX 8 April, 21:00 / USA / Release of the Federal Reserve minutes from the 18 March meeting / funds rate – 3.75% / USDX

Speeches by representatives of major central banks are also due this week. Their comments typically trigger FX market volatility as they can signal future policy intentions.

Brent crude oil prices fell below $110 per barrel, losing much of the initial increase, while West Texas Intermediate prices approached $111. Online information indicates that the US, Iran, and regional intermediaries have begun discussing the terms of a potential 45-day pause that could lead to a definitive end to the war. However, the chances of a partial agreement within the next 48 hours remain low. Recall that in less than 24 hours, Trump's ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz will expire.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened in a series of social media posts to "unleash hell" on Iran by striking power plants and other infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened. Tehran has rejected these demands, and the route remains closed to all vessels except for a small number.

This indicates that tensions in the Persian Gulf remain at a critical level. Trump's statements, filled with belligerent rhetoric, imply a readiness to escalate the conflict, including striking key Iranian infrastructure if Tehran does not meet the ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz. Such developments have inevitably captured the attention of the global community, which is concerned about the far-reaching consequences of such confrontation and is clearly unable to compete with media rumors about negotiations for a 45-day peace.

Tehran's reaction was predictably firm. Iranian authorities categorically rejected the claims and threats from Washington, calling them unacceptable and provocative. The statement that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to the passage of most vessels posed a direct challenge to the American administration and affirmed Iran's intention to continue its policy despite mounting pressure. This deadlock in relations jeopardizes not only regional security but also the stability of global energy markets.

The war has already plunged the oil market into chaos, causing an unprecedented supply shock that is escalating into a global energy crisis. Oil prices and fuel products have surged sharply, exacerbating inflationary pressure, undermining economic growth, and placing additional burdens on businesses and consumers.

Trump announced plans to hold a press conference at 1:00 PM on Monday and set a deadline for Tuesday at 8:00 PM Eastern Time, without clarifying what he meant. On March 26, Trump gave Iran a ten-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which expires on Monday evening.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $113.36. This will allow them to target $118.88, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be around $124.86. In the event of a price decline, bears will attempt to take control at $106.83. If successful, breaking through this range would deliver a significant blow to bullish positions and could drive oil prices down to a low of $100.40, with the potential to reach $92.54.

This situation stems from media reports that the US and Iran are engaged in active discussions about a 45-day pause that would ultimately allow for ending the war. Indeed, the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, has recently shown increased sensitivity to geopolitical changes. Any hints at a reduction in tensions, especially between major players like the US and Iran, can provoke a short-term surge in activity. Traders seeking safer assets or anticipating a potential de-escalation of the conflict may redirect their investments into speculative instruments.

However, such rumors often turn out to be nothing more than a smokescreen. History is rife with examples of world powers engaging in diplomatic games with no real breakthroughs in conflict resolution. In such situations, speculative growth driven only by expectations becomes unstable. As soon as it becomes clear that a compromise is far off or that negotiations have stalled, the market quickly corrects itself, returning to its fundamental indicators.

For sustained growth in Bitcoin and Ethereum, more substantial arguments are needed. This could come in the form of truly positive fundamental news. Geopolitical lulls, if not backed by real actions, serve only as temporary stimuli. Therefore, traders should remain vigilant and not succumb to the euphoria driven by rumors.

As for my intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to base my actions on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the ongoing development of the bullish market in the long term, which has not gone anywhere.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $69,400, targeting growth to the level of $70,100. At $70,100, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $68,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back to the $69,400 and $70,100 levels.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $68,600, targeting a decline to $67,500. At $67,500, I will exit my sales and immediately buy on a bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $69,400 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $68,600 and $67,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,140, targeting a move to $2,160. At $2,160, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,117 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back to the $2,140 and $2,160 levels.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,117, targeting a decline to $2,096. At $2,096, I will exit my sales and immediately buy on a bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,140 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $2,117 and $2,096.

Last Friday, markets were closed for a holiday. Today, index futures climbed and oil prices fell as investors received some reassurance that the six-week Middle East conflict may be easing. Media reports say that Iran is signaling support for a ceasefire.

The MSCI Asia Pacific index added 0.2%. Advancers and decliners within the index were roughly balanced, while technology stocks led gains. S&P 500 futures retraced prior losses and gained about 0.2%.

The positive tone was supported by reports that the United States, Iran, and a group of regional intermediaries are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a final resolution of the war. Reports that more vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz also helped, despite increasingly aggressive threats from President Donald Trump to destroy Iranian power plants beginning Tuesday.

Brent crude pared earlier gains by 2.6% and was up 0.9% at roughly $110 a barrel, well below an intraday peak near $112. The 10-year US Treasury yield ticked down modestly as market participants began to reprice geopolitical risk. FX markets were mixed: the US dollar remained under moderate pressure amid improved risk appetite, while traditionally safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc showed some weakness. The euro, by contrast, strengthened on improving economic prospects in the eurozone and reduced regional risk concerns. Gold, typically a barometer of geopolitical stress, also traded lower.

According to Maybank Securities, Asian markets, in particular, tend to react quickly to any sign that worst-case scenarios such as a complete halt to oil shipments can be avoided. That is why markets see a measured recovery, especially in sectors like semiconductors and cyclicals.

Clearly, traders are seizing on any headlines that can shift sentiment after the war with Iran darkened prospects and heightened inflation fears, undermining expectations of Fed rate cuts. Attention remains focused on energy prices and the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the key artery for Middle East oil flows.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the main task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,590. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $6,603. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,616, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,577. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,563 and open the way to $6,552.

The tests of the levels I noted did not occur in the afternoon, so I was left without any trades.

Last Friday saw the US dollar rise, but there were no buyers above the 160 level. The USD/JPY pair strengthened slightly following data indicating a recovery in US business activity in March and an unexpected decrease in the unemployment rate, confirming a trend toward stabilization in the labor market. According to information provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of non-farm jobs increased by 178,000 last month. Positive macroeconomic indicators from the US suggest the Federal Reserve may continue its policy of high interest rates – especially amid the risks of a sharp rise in inflation from the US's war with Iran.

Today, there is no data from Japan, so trading will remain within the sideways channel in the first half of the day, as we await significant geopolitical changes on the global stage.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 159.66 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 159.89 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.89, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions back (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.53 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 159.66 and 159.89 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 159.53 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.33 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.66 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 159.53 and 159.33 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price at 1.3220 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning its downward move from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by more than 25 pips.

The US dollar rose last Friday after data showed that the number of jobs in the US rebounded in March, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased. The report indicated that non-farm jobs increased by 178,000 last month. These figures were better than analysts' forecasts, which anticipated a job increase of 68,000. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.

This indicates that a labor shortage is forming in the job market, which is usually a positive signal for the economy. The decrease in unemployment may also stimulate wage growth, which, in turn, will support consumer spending. Positive macroeconomic indicators in the US labor market suggest the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, as a stable job market is a key factor influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

Today, there is no data from the UK, so pressure on the pound could return at any moment.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point at 1.3222 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3247 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3247, I intend to exit my long positions and immediately sell back (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). It is unlikely to expect a strong rise in the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3208 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3222 and 1.3247 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it reaches 1.3208 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3182, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3222 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3208 and 1.3182 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly fell in March, indicating a stabilization in the labor market. The increase in the number of employed also surged by 178,000, exceeding all economists' forecasts. These favorable economic signals strengthened the US currency in the global arena, generating enthusiasm among investors. Typically, such a trend favors a strengthening of the national currency, reflecting a healthy economy and the dollar's appeal as an investment instrument.

Today, the eurozone market demonstrates cautious optimism despite the absence of new data. Traders seem to be getting used to the uncertainty and are seeking opportunities in other sectors where geopolitical risks are less pronounced. The energy sector, being at the center of geopolitical events, is facing the most pressure. The rise in oil prices due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could have a dual effect on both the European currency and the US dollar. On one hand, it supports oil exporters; on the other, it increases production costs for many European companies, undermining their competitiveness. Nevertheless, any escalation of the conflict may lead to a sharp strengthening of the US dollar as traders seek refuge in the world's most liquid currency.

Despite signs of a possible diplomatic resolution, risks remain high. In such conditions, it is recommended to exercise maximum caution and avoid making risky decisions until a clearer picture of developments emerges.

There is also no data from the UK today, so pound traders will be relying on new actions from the US.

Momentum Strategy (for Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.1537 may lead to an increase in the euro to the area of 1.1560 and 1.1590;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.1510 may lead to a decline in the euro to the area of 1.1485 and 1.1445;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.3225 may lead to a rise in the pound to the area of 1.3250 and 1.3280;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.3215 may lead to a decline in the pound to the area of 1.3182 and 1.3160;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 159.74 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the area of 159.84 and 160.24;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 159.53 may lead to a sell-off in the dollar to the area of 159.29 and 159.00;

Mean Reversion Strategy (for Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1538 on a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1510 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3231 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3190 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6925 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6895 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3950 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3928 on a return to this level;

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Essentially, the only notable release is the ISM Services Index for the US for March. Regardless of what this index shows, the market continues to ignore almost all macroeconomic background. Friday proved once again to traders that this is the case.

Analysis Of Fundamental Events:

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in either direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news that cannot be predicted. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3203-1.3212. We still do not see grounds for strong and sustained growth in the US currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), but in the near future, geopolitics will remain the key factor in the currency market.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

1H Chart Of The GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also demonstrated extremely low volatility on Friday, with the market showing absolutely no interest in important data from across the ocean. This can partly be understood. Jerome Powell has already stated twice that the Fed is fully focused on inflation, and the inflation report this week may show an increase of 1% in just one month. As such, the Federal Reserve will rely on the Consumer Price Index in its monetary decisions in the near future. Therefore, the labor market and unemployment data have become less important. However, "less important" does not mean "unimportant." We believe the market continues to ignore nearly all macroeconomic factors amid geopolitical events in the Middle East. A new descending trend line has been established for the British pound, which is just formal. This is because market movements are solely driven by geopolitical news, and recent weeks have shown that these movements are completely random.

5M Chart Of The GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was formed on Friday. During the American session, the price consolidated below the 1.3203-1.3212 area, but low volatility prevented traders from making good profits on this signal. The British pound did not move in the desired direction by even 10-15 pips. Thus, the trade yielded neither profits nor losses.

How To Trade On Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is forming yet another downward trend. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we expect a resurgence of the global upward trend from 2025 to 2026. However, for this to occur, global geopolitical tensions need to start easing, as the dollar is currently popular solely because of them.

On Monday, beginner traders may consider opening new short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3203-1.3212 range, targeting 1.3096-1.3107. A consolidation above the 1.3203-1.3212 area will allow for long positions with a target of 1.3259-1.3267.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to trade now include: 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. Today, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK, while in the US, the important ISM Services Index will be released, which could easily be ignored by the market, just as the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports on Friday were.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

Analysis Of Trades On Friday

The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no interesting movements on Friday. Moreover, volatility dropped to minimal levels despite a strong and vibrant macroeconomic backdrop. Of course, when the Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports were released in the US, the market pretended to be greatly interested in the data and reacted with a 30-pip move. This was despite the fact that the Non-Farm figures exceeded forecasts by three times and that the unemployment rate, contrary to expectations, decreased. Thus, we received further confirmation that the macroeconomic background is not significant at this time. The market is waiting for a resolution in the Middle Eastern conflict, anticipating new strikes from the US and Israel against Iran, followed by retaliatory strikes that could likely raise oil prices and demand for the dollar again. Geopolitics remains not just a key factor but essentially the only one.

5M Chart Of The EUR/USD Pair

How To Trade On Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend is once again formally relevant due to the adjustment of the trend line. However, the market continues to trade solely on geopolitics and emotions. Therefore, the "roller coaster" may continue for a long time, with macroeconomic, technical, and fundamental factors holding little significance. Trump continually provokes both crashes and surges in the US dollar.

On Monday, beginner traders may consider short positions if the price bounces from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, targeting 1.1455-1.1474. A consolidation above the 1.1527-1.1531 area will allow for long positions with a target of 1.1584-1.1591.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include: 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Monday, the US ISM Services Index will be published, but we saw how the market reacted to key reports on Friday. It is likely that there will be no strong reaction to the ISM index, and the market will continue to wait for geopolitical events.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

With both EMAs in a Golden Cross intersection and RSI(14) in the Neutral-Bullish level, then XPD/USD has the potential today to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 1558.44

2. Resistance. 1 : 1526.35

3. Pivot : 1466.85

4. Support. 1 : 1434.76

5. Support. 2 : 1375.26

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price holds above 1466.85, the move will likely advance toward 1526.35.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 1526.35 is broken out, 1558.44 may be tested next.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The upside bias weakens if XPD/USD breaks down below 1375.26.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 1471.19

EMA(200): 1445.01

RSI(14) : 55.85

Economic News Release Schedule:

Tonight the United States will release one economic data point which is ISM Services PMI at 21:00 WIB.

It is clearly seen that both EMAs form a Golden Cross followed by RSI(14) is in the Neutral-Bullish area, so there is a high probability today that Platinum will strengthen toward its nearest resistance level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 2091.2

2. Resistance. 1 : 2044.3

3. Pivot : 1960.2

4. Support. 1 : 1913.3

5. Support. 2 : 1829.2

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price holds above 1960.2, the move will likely advance toward 2044.3.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 2044.3 is broken, there is potential to reach 2091,2.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The upside bias weakens if the price falls below 1558.44.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 1960.2

EMA(200): 1932.4

RSI(14) : 51.83

Economic News Release Schedule:

Tonight the United States will release one economic data point which is ISM Services PMI at 21:00 WIB.

The GBP/USD currency pair demonstrated only one thing on Friday—complete unwillingness to move. The market seemed to have fallen asleep and missed the Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports. Although we warned that the reaction might be absent, we didn't fully believe it. For one reason or another, both crucial reports were ignored. Thus, on Friday, traders once again confirmed that the market is not inclined to react to fundamental or macroeconomic events at present.

In the upcoming week, no significant events are scheduled in the UK. Several important reports will be released in the US, but what are the chances that the market will even notice them? All attention is currently focused on Trump's threats to deliver the promised strike against Iran within the next 48 hours. Recall that the US President gave Iran 10 days to sign an agreement with Washington (as if this is a one-sided action) and to unblock the Strait of Hormuz (which "is not a problem for the US"). As of now, none of Trump's conditions have been met, and high-ranking Iranian officials have responded to Washington: a truce and cessation of hostilities are possible, but only on terms set by Iran. Iran is seeking security and guarantees.

Who can provide these security guarantees if Trump bombards Iran every six months? It's a rhetorical question. At present, we see no signs that this conflict can be paused, even momentarily. For formality's sake, let's consider the macroeconomic background in the US. On Monday, an important ISM Services Index will be released. This indicator has recently shown positive values. On Tuesday, the durable goods orders report will be published. On Wednesday, the Fed minutes and the fourth-quarter GDP figure will be released. On Friday, the March inflation report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released.

The most important and interesting report will certainly be the inflation report. The market ignored labor and unemployment data, perhaps because the Fed has defined the trajectory of its future monetary policy. This will depend entirely on inflation. Currently, US inflation is expected to spike to 3.4%. Earlier, Jerome Powell said no tightening of monetary policy was planned; however, in our view, everything will depend on inflation growth rates in the coming months. We fully acknowledge that the Fed may consider one or two rate increases. In any case, the higher the inflation, the better the dollar will perform. The dollar has been doing quite well even without inflation in recent months.

Thus, despite the continuation of a global upward trend on the daily timeframe, we believe that further growth of the dollar is more likely under current circumstances.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 107 pips, which is considered "average." On Monday, April 6, we expect the pair to trade within a range between 1.3091 and 1.3305. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice and has also formed a "bullish" divergence, which again warns of the completion of the downward trend. However, geopolitics is currently more important than technical signals.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3184
• S2 – 1.3123
• S3 – 1.3062

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3245
• R2 – 1.3306
• R3 – 1.3367

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has been moving downward for a month and a half, but its long-term prospects have not changed. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy; therefore, we do not expect the US currency to grow in 2026. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. When the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3123 and 1.3091 based on geopolitical factors. In recent months, almost all news and events have turned against the British pound, contributing to the prolonged bearish trend. Geopolitics remains the key factor.

Explanations For Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will remain over the next day based on current volatility indicators.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with a volatility of 37 pips on Friday. This level of volatility was expected by traders on the day of the publication of the US Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. However, we are not particularly surprised by such a "wonderful" result, as we have repeatedly stated that the macroeconomic background has almost no impact on the pair's movement. We were uncertain whether the market would completely ignore such crucial reports from the US, but it turns out that nothing is impossible.

Thus, we can say right away that not much will change next week. Of course, we will consider the most important macroeconomic reports, but they are unlikely to significantly affect traders' sentiment. Geopolitics will still be at the forefront. Donald Trump may launch a new strike on Iran in the coming days, thereby provoking another escalation in the Middle East. We struggle to understand the sense in a new strike, especially against energy targets, given that Tehran has already made it clear that it intends to continue defending its sovereignty, independence, and political course. New strikes on Iranian territory will only provoke further retaliation from Middle Eastern countries.

However, Trump cannot simply retreat. More accurately, he can, but likely does not want to. Trump understands that the longer the war continues, the lower his political ratings fall. Trump himself will not participate in the 2026 elections; however, the political ratings are falling not only for Trump but for the entire Republican Party. American voters understand that a Republican victory in the congressional elections would allow Trump to make decisions essentially unopposed. The first year of his presidency clearly demonstrated what those decisions might be and how the standard of living for Americans could rise as a result. Therefore, we believe that Americans will vote for the Democrats simply to prevent the Republicans from winning.

Thus, Trump should currently focus on saving at least one chamber of Congress. To achieve this, he needs to end the war in Iran and also start doing something for his own country. For example, boosting the economy, improving relations with trading partners, and working on restoring the labor market. However, it is likely that Trump will choose a different path. Therefore, we expect new strikes on Iran, which could trigger another rise in energy prices and strengthen the dollar.

In the Eurozone, there will be very few interesting reports this week. For the Eurozone, the interesting reports include only retail sales, while Germany will release second estimates of business activity indexes, trade balance, industrial production, and the second inflation estimate. As we can see, there are unlikely to be any reports that will influence the pair's movements under the current circumstances. From a technical perspective, the pair has traded between 1.1450 and 1.1630 over the past two weeks.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 6 is 81 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1434 and 1.1596 on Monday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1475
• S2 – 1.1353
• S3 – 1.1230

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1597
• R2 – 1.1719
• R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, prompted by geopolitics. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; however, for over a month, the market has focused solely on geopolitics, making all other factors virtually irrelevant. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1434 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1629 and 1.1719. For a stronger upward movement, the geopolitical backdrop needs to stabilize.

Explanations For Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will remain over the next day based on current volatility indicators.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded very sluggishly on Friday, and overall, the week ended poorly for the British currency. Firstly, the pair consolidated below the 1.3201-1.3212 area, which suggests further declines on Monday. Secondly, the pair is near its local bottom, indicating that there are very few buyers in the market right now. While the euro has gained some stability in recent weeks, the British pound continues to slide. The reason is clear—geopolitics. However, the euro and the pound respond to it slightly differently, as practice shows.

From a technical standpoint, forming new trend lines or channels does not make much sense. Trend lines can be drawn daily, but the market pays no attention to them. Similarly, many other technical factors are being disregarded. A downward trend is indeed evident, but if Trump delays his decision to strike Iran by another 10 days, the British pound may experience a surge of optimism. If the war seems to be ending, the dollar may lose perhaps its only support. Thus, the situation remains unstable and is solely dependent on geopolitics, which is extremely difficult to predict.

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was formed on Friday, with volatility remaining minimal despite the strong macroeconomic backdrop. During the American trading session, the price consolidated below the 1.3201-1.3212 area, but by the end of the day, it moved down by a maximum of 10 pips. As a result, there was hardly any profit from this trade.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing steadily in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are often close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving further apart, with non-commercial traders predominantly holding... short positions. However, given the events in the Middle East, it is no longer surprising that demand for risk currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. However, currently, geopolitical factors are at the forefront, providing strong support for the US currency. According to the latest COT report (dated March 31), the "Non-commercial" group opened 4,800 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 5,700 contracts over the week.

Analysis Of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has shifted to form yet another downward trend, which could also be canceled soon. The market continues to closely monitor events in the Middle East, which account for 90% of market movements. Despite the significant decline of the pair in February-March, we still regard it as a correction in the long-term perspective (weekly timeframe). The daily timeframe confidently signals the maintenance of an upward trend. Geopolitics continues to dominate the currency market.

On April 6, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3319) and Kijun-sen line (1.3251) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set a Stop Loss at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Monday, there are no major events scheduled in the UK, while in the US, the ISM Services Index, a key indicator, will be released. Unfortunately, the market continues to ignore almost all macroeconomic data, anticipating a resolution between Iran and the US. Therefore, the pair could swing in either direction at any moment.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider remaining in short positions with a target of 1.3096-1.3115, as the area of 1.3201-1.3212 has been breached. Long positions can be reopened with targets at the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines if the price consolidates above the 1.3201-1.3212 area.

Explanations For Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.