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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Bitcoin is trading around $75,993, rebounding after coming very close to the psychological level of $75,000, which also coincides with the 4/8 Murray level.

Bitcoin could find strong support around $75,000, or, if downward pressure prevails, it could be expected to reach $74,200, which could be considered the lower band of the downtrend channel. However, we believe that Bitcoin has found strong support, and any pullback in the coming days could be viewed as a buying opportunity.

A Bitcoin recovery is likely in the coming days, and we believe it could return to $78,125 and eventually reach the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), around $80,228.

US employment data will be released in the coming hours, which could also affect the volatility of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. If there is a sharp drop toward $75,000 followed by a rebound around this level, it will be considered a buying opportunity.

Conversely, if there is a sharp move toward the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) or the Murray 5/8 line and the price struggles to break above this zone, we believe this could be interpreted as a negative signal, and Bitcoin could resume its downtrend and trade below $78,125.

The Eagle indicator is approaching oversold levels, and we believe Bitcoin could rebound in the coming days; therefore, as long as the price remains above the psychological level of $75,000, any pullback will be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Crude oil is approaching resistance levels around the 5/8 Murray and could continue its rise slightly until it reaches the upper band of the downtrend channel at $91.30.

If crude oil faces rejection below $91 in the coming hours, this could be considered a negative signal, and we could look to sell below this zone, at $90 and $89, with the hope that it will ultimately reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $88.

Technically, oil could continue to fall, as it remains within the downtrend channel; as long as the price consolidates below the Murray 5/8 level at $90.62, strong downward pressure could persist, and we could open short positions below this zone.

An opportunity to open long positions in crude oil would be to wait for the price to rebound above the Murray 4/8 level, around $87.50. This level, which also constitutes strong support, could provide us with a buying opportunity, and we could expect the price to reach the psychological level of $90.

The US nonfarm payrolls will have a direct impact today. I warn you to brace for high volatility in crude oil prices in the coming hours. Therefore, as long as the price remains above the 4/8 Murray level or pulls back toward this area, we will look to buy. Conversely, if the price reaches the 21-day SMA around $92.53 or the 6/8 Murray level around $93.75, it will be considered a sell signal.

Gold is trading around $4,061 after reaching a high of $4,145, which coincided with the upper band of the downtrend channel.

From a technical perspective, we expect gold to resume its uptrend and move closer to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $4,113.

If gold tests the Murray 6/8 level and consolidates above this zone in the coming hours, it could be interpreted as a positive signal to buy above $4,062, with targets at $4,120.

A decisive break above the uptrend channel and consolidation above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) could change the outlook for gold, and we could expect it to reach the Murray 3/8 level, around $4,218.

On the other hand, given that US nonfarm payrolls will be released during the US trading session, we expect this to impact gold; we could see it retest the strong resistance levels of $4,120 or $4,145. If gold fails to break above this zone, it could be interpreted as a sell signal; conversely, if gold falls below $4,062, it could reach the psychological level of $4,000.

One opportunity to sell XAU/USD would be to wait for gold to reach the upper band of the downtrend channel before opening short positions; conversely, a good point to open long positions would be to wait for the price to continue falling until it finds solid support around the daily S_2 or S_3 levels, located at $3,980.

The Eagle indicator has reached extremely overbought levels. From a technical perspective, a technical bounce from the Murray 6/8 level toward $4,120 or $4,218 could be considered a signal to open short positions in the coming days.

Importantly, gold left a gap around $3,873. From a technical perspective, we believe it could return to that level in the coming days if the price falls below the psychological level of $4,000.

The euro is trading around 1.1208 under downward pressure, below the Murray 4/8 line, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the 21-period simple moving average (SMA). As we noted in our previous analysis, the euro failed to break above the 200-period EMA; technically, it is under selling pressure.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is breaking out of the uptrend channel formed since October 28. If EUR/USD consolidates below 1.1217 in the coming hours, this will be considered a sell signal, and we expect it to continue falling to 1.1160, then to 1.1135, and finally to 1.1108.

Conversely, if a pullback occurs toward 1.1230 or 1.1258, this price reaction could be interpreted as an opportunity to sell, since, technically, the price is at resistance levels, and we believe this brief recovery could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

In the coming hours, the US nonfarm payrolls will be released. This employment report has a significant influence and directly affects the dollar; this could also trigger movements in the euro. Therefore, we believe that if the US data is positive, we could expect a strong upward move in the euro. We believe EUR/USD could reach 1.1231 or 1.1260.

In the meantime, we will look for opportunities to sell below the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) and will keep an eye on the data to be released in the coming hours, as we can expect a strong price reaction; from a technical standpoint, we anticipate that the euro will rebound again.

Ethereum is trading around $2,235, rebounding after hitting a low very close to the Murray 6/8 zone, around $2,201. According to the H4 chart, it is consolidating above the Murray 6/8 level, which looks promising for a recovery in the cryptocurrency.

If ETH consolidates above the Murray 6/8 level at $2,187 in the coming hours, this will be considered a buying opportunity with targets at $2,310; ultimately, we expect it to reach the upper band of the downtrend channel formed since early October, around $2,398.

On November 4, Ethereum reached a strong resistance zone around the upper band of the downtrend channel. As the Eagle indicator entered the overbought zone, the price formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. On Thursday, there was a sharp drop during the US trading session, and the token is currently recovering; however, downward pressure could persist, so we should keep an eye on the Murray 6/8 zone.

A technical bounce above $2,187 will be considered a bullish signal. A break below this zone could cause Ethereum to continue falling, and we expect it to reach the lower band of the downtrend channel, around $2,100.

Since the Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels, we will technically look for buying opportunities in the coming hours.

The test of 158.00 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the yen. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 158.33.

Today's US labor market report will be particularly important for USD/JPY, as its impact on this pair is reflected through the interest rate differential. Japan released strong economic data this morning. Specifically, nominal wages increased by 4.6% in September, compared with the forecast of 3.8% and the previous month's reading of 3.9%. This brought wage growth back to the July level of 4.7%. These figures strengthen the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, whose current policy rate stands at 1.25%. At its previous meeting on October 30, the central bank maintained its policy stance in an 8–1 vote, but many economists expect a rate hike as early as December 17–18. The problem is that the gap between Japanese and US interest rates remains substantial. The Fed's rate currently stands at 3.75–4.00%, exceeding Japan's rate by 2.5–2.75 percentage points. Even if the Fed raises rates to 4.00–4.25% in December, the differential will remain significant. This gap continues to support demand for dollar-denominated assets, and Japan has yet to catch up with the United States in this regard. If the US employment report is strong, with job growth exceeding 65,000 and wage growth reaching 0.3%, expectations of further Fed rate hikes will strengthen. Treasury yields will rise, providing support for USD/JPY and potentially pushing it closer to the psychologically important 160.00 level, where the market has come to expect a response from Japanese authorities. A weak report would have the opposite effect, bringing the scenario of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan to the forefront and potentially supporting the yen. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak in the evening, and his comments on the pace of monetary policy normalization could also influence the pair.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: USD/JPY can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 158.49 (the green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 158.86 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.86, the long position will be closed and a short position will be opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pair can be expected to rise today only if US economic data is strong. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests 158.23 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair can be expected to rise toward the opposite levels of 158.49 and 158.86.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: USD/JPY can be sold today after the price breaks below 158.23 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 157.87, where the short position will be closed and a long position will be opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests 158.49 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair can be expected to decline toward the opposite levels of 158.23 and 157.87.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of 1.3420 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line. Therefore, selling the pound was considered too risky, and the entire move in the pair was missed.

The dollar is currently receiving strong support, and today's employment report could provide a new bullish impulse. On the one hand, the Democrats' victory in the elections and declining US Treasury yields are supporting the US currency. On the other hand, the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Beth Hammack stated the previous day that monetary policy would need to shift toward a restrictive stance, while the market is pricing in a rate hike in December and another one in March. The labor market will be the decisive factor. If nonfarm payroll growth comes in close to or above the forecast of 65,000, while average hourly earnings increase by 0.3%, the Fed will have little reason to pause its tightening cycle. Treasury yields will rise, and the dollar will recover its previous losses. In this case, risk-sensitive assets will continue to decline. Conversely, a weak report would support expectations of an economic slowdown and give the pound an opportunity to recover. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide an additional indication of economic conditions. Given the current balance of factors, the dollar is likely to remain in a stronger position, as there are currently few indications that the economic data will be weak.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3395 (the green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 1.3423 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3423, the long position will be closed and a short position will be opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pound could rise today if US economic data is weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests 1.3373 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair can be expected to rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3395 and 1.3373.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be sold today after the price breaks below 1.3373 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3348, where the short position will be closed and a long position will be opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound will return if US economic data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests 1.3395 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair can be expected to decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3373 and 1.3348.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of 1.1182 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for selling the euro was appropriate. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The market is preparing for economic data that could determine sentiment toward the dollar in the near term. All attention is focused today on the US labor market report, which is expected to show a significantly better result than a month earlier. In September, job growth was very weak, with only 29,000 jobs added compared with the expected 84,000. At that time, the market immediately reduced its expectations of a Fed rate hike in October, and the dollar lost some of its support. The current forecast points to a recovery, and if this materializes, September's weakness will appear to have been temporary. Average hourly earnings are equally important. Wage growth leads to higher incomes and, consequently, stronger demand, which adds to inflationary pressures. This is why the Fed closely monitors this indicator when deciding whether to raise interest rates further. If wage growth exceeds expectations, expectations of a rate hike in December will strengthen. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide additional insight into the overall picture by showing how confident US consumers feel amid high prices. Strong data will restore demand for the dollar, increasing pressure on risk-sensitive assets. The euro, which has faced difficulties in recent days, will come under renewed pressure.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: The euro can be bought today when the price reaches the level around 1.1182 (the green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 1.1218. At 1.1218, the position will be closed, and the euro will also be sold in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today if US economic data is weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be bought today if the price tests 1.1159 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair can be expected to rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1182 and 1.1218.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The euro will be sold after the price reaches 1.1159 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1124, where the position will be closed and a position in the opposite direction will be opened immediately (targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from that level). Selling pressure on the pair will return if economic data is stronger than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be sold today if the price tests 1.1182 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair can be expected to decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1159 and 1.1124.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price has clearly broken out of a previous descending channel (marked in blue), which had pressured it toward a low in the 86.35–86.95 range. Subsequently, the price staged a strong rebound, establishing an upward trajectory within a steep, secondary ascending channel (marked in pink/red). Despite temporary corrective pullbacks, the price is consistently attempting to hold its position above the median line of this ascending channel.

Interaction with Pivot Levels: During its recent upward surge, the price broke through the daily pivot point at 89.39, targeting the area near the first daily resistance level (Daily R1) at 92.13. Although a recent short-term corrective pullback pushed the price back toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, it currently remains supported above the daily pivot, keeping the potential for a continued positive trend intact.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 92.13 (Daily R1 and the most recent intraday high).

Second Resistance: 93.77 (Daily R2).

Pivotal Resistance: 96.51 (Daily R3 and the upper boundary of the broken descending channel).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 89.39 (Daily Pivot point and current pivotal level).

Second Support: 87.75 – 87.60 (Daily S1 and a nearby local low).

Pivotal Support: 86.35 and below (the most recent major low and the lower boundary of the price range).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations:

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive outlook is favored for the intraday timeframe, provided the price remains stable above the daily pivot point of 89.39 and above the boundaries of the newly formed ascending channel.

Recommendation: Consider long positions (buying) if the price holds above 89.39, or upon a corrective pullback toward the 90.00 level.

Technical Targets: A retest of the first daily resistance at 92.13, followed by an extension toward 93.77.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if selling pressure returns and the price fails to hold above the daily pivot point, shifting the trend back to the downside.

Confirmation Condition: A clear hourly candle close below the 89.39 level. Technical Objectives: A pullback to target the first daily support level at 87.75, followed by a test of the major low at 86.35.

Risk Management

Trading in crude oil markets requires adherence to strict capital management rules, given the rapid volatility and shifts in price momentum. Risk per trade should be capped at a maximum of 2%, and stop-loss orders must be precisely implemented to protect the portfolio.

Price Action on the Crude Oil Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at the 90.54 level within an ascending channel on the daily timeframe. It has experienced a sharp decline and selling pressure, pushing it below the monthly pivot point at 100.05, as well as the first monthly support level (Monthly S1) at 89.59.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday's and Today's):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected a steep decline and strong selling momentum, which led to a breakdown through the median lines and sub-channels, driving the price toward nearby support zones.

Today's Candle: Shows signs of slight consolidation, with trading stabilizing near the 90.54 level, though negative pressure remains dominant.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): This remains the most likely outcome as long as the price stays below the monthly pivot point and key resistance levels. The decline could potentially continue, targeting the next support level at 76.41 (Monthly S2).

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): This would be triggered if the price manages to establish a support base and regain buying momentum, allowing it to climb back above the first monthly support level and test nearby resistance levels.

Nasdaq Composite capitalisation losses

The Nasdaq Composite recorded the biggest market-cap loss in its history, led by chipmakers after disappointing profit outlooks and worries that Democratic control of Congress will bring tougher regulation of the AI industry. The sell-off spilled into risky assets as if someone pulled the support out from under the whole tech sector. Bitcoin fell into the $76,000 area — a September low — posting its steepest one-day drop in five months. Ether plunged alongside it.

A lingering negative for Bitcoin is that the market has yet to recover from the record $6.3 billion Binance hack and fading retail enthusiasm. Volatility in tech stocks added pressure, although a decline in Treasury yields would normally support speculative assets in a different scenario, so that factor's net effect is ambiguous.

Stock-market volatility dynamics

Investor anxiety that Democratic control of Congress will choke off industry-friendly legislation and impose tougher oversight on digital-asset firms also weighs on BTC/USD. Broader macro effects are unclear. Political gridlock could limit fiscal stimulus and depress speculative assets, while falling Treasury yields might eventually ease financial conditions in their favour.

In the days after the Binance hack, investors pulled $1 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bloomberg data show, with capital leaking from funds like water through a crack in a dam. BlackRock's IBIT was hit hardest, losing about $900 million.

The on-chain picture has changed, too. A month ago, almost all coins held by short-term holders (bought in the past 155 days) were in profit, like a bountiful harvest. That share has collapsed. Glassnode notes that most holders of those coins are now underwater.

One support factor for Bitcoin remains its integration into the traditional financial system. Glassnode argues that Democrats taking Congress is unlikely to dramatically shake market sentiment because Bitcoin is much more embedded in the broader financial system than in previous cycles — with banks, asset managers and ETFs on board.

Bitcoin long promised to remain detached from legacy markets, but this time, it could not hide.

Technically, the BTC/USD daily chart shows a long-bodied bar and a rejection at the moving averages. These are bearish signals that support maintaining short positions. Targets lie at $71,600 and $69,400.

As of Friday, gold prices (XAU/USD), after declining during the Asian session, have returned to Thursday's trading range. Quotes fell below the $4050 level amid a moderate strengthening of the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US currency against a basket of other currencies, continued to recover after reaching its lowest level since late September on Thursday. This put pressure on gold. At the same time, further declines have been limited as traders prefer to wait for the release of key US labor market data before opening large positions in either direction.The October US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 65 thousand jobs, up from 29 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Investors will also monitor changes in average hourly earnings, as wage growth could have a significant impact on expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Overall, the release of these key macroeconomic indicators could increase volatility in financial markets and affect demand for the US dollar, in turn providing additional momentum for gold price movements.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party's victory in the US midterm elections has heightened concerns that the development of the artificial intelligence sector could slow. Against this backdrop, Wall Street prices fell sharply on Thursday, while demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including US Treasury bonds, increased. However, the subsequent substantial rise in oil prices has renewed inflation concerns. In addition, traders continue to assign a probability of approximately 70% to a Fed rate hike at its December meeting. This limits the potential for further declines in US Treasury yields following their midweek drop and supports the dollar.The geopolitical risk premium also remains in place amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's next steps. On Thursday, he stated that the United States might have to "destroy the rest of Iran," adding that it would soon become clear whether he would take any action. Disagreements between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz also remain unresolved. These factors support the dollar as a safe-haven asset and, consequently, put pressure on gold. Despite this, the precious metal appears likely to end the week higher for the first time in three weeks and is holding firmly above the psychologically important $4000 level.From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a positive short-term bias, trading above the 20-day SMA. However, an intraday decline below the 20-day SMA should prompt caution among bulls. Oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming the advantage held by bears. The nearest resistance is located just above the round $4100 level. A sustained move above this mark would create conditions for a test of yesterday's high near $4155. Support is provided by the convergence of the 9-day and 14-day EMAs. The round $4000 level offers further support below.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against the specified major currencies today. The dollar has recorded its largest gain against the New Zealand dollar.

On Friday, the euro continued to decline for the second consecutive day. The US dollar remained in strong demand as risk appetite weakened following the sell-off in equity markets, which particularly affected the technology sector. During the European session, EUR/USD traded between 1.1180 and 1.1200, retreating from Thursday's highs near 1.1270. The positive German industrial production data released today failed to support the European currency.

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, industrial production increased by 0.7% in September. The figure exceeded market expectations, which had pointed to no change, and was higher than August's 0.1% increase. The improvement was mainly driven by the automotive and pharmaceutical industries. At the same time, declines were recorded in construction and the production of machinery and equipment.

Later on Friday, Eurostat will release September retail sales data for the eurozone. Analysts expect the indicator to decline by 0.1%, offsetting an increase of the same magnitude in August. Unless the data deliver an unexpectedly positive surprise, they are unlikely to provide significant support for the euro.

The US dollar, traditionally regarded by investors as a safe-haven asset, is benefiting from falling equity markets. The sell-off is linked to growing concerns about the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Shares of US and Asian chipmakers fell sharply as investors became concerned that a Democratic victory in the United States could lead to tighter regulation and the abandonment of plans to build data centers. OCBC strategists note that the combination of resilient US economic growth, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to further monetary policy tightening continues to favor the dollar overall.

Today, the October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later during the North American session, is the main focus for identifying trading opportunities. Labor market data released earlier this week were strong: initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in almost four months, ADP employment growth significantly exceeded forecasts, and the JOLTS report showed a sharp increase in job openings in September. If the NFP report confirms this picture, the dollar could receive additional support.

From a technical perspective, the pair remains under selling pressure, as indicated by negative oscillators and its recent failure to hold above the 20-day SMA. The pair is also trading below all key moving averages, further confirming bearish pressure. Selling pressure may ease somewhat if the pair consolidates above the 20-day SMA. The next resistance level is Thursday's high near 1.1270. Support is provided by the 1.1180–1.1150 level. The next major support level is 1.1100, below which the pair could accelerate its decline.

The table below shows how the euro has performed against the major currencies today. The euro has been weakest against the US dollar.

The key factor that triggered the sell-off is that the market priced out a wartime premium after the Democrats won the midterms. The president is signaling restraint, and Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could limit his ability to expand military action. Recall that on November 4, he said he was "ready to fight," but political constraints may remove the justification for a strike.

Hopes of a near-term end to the conflict are rising, but deep disagreements remain. Iran demands an end to the US maritime blockade, sanctions relief, and the unfreezing of assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US outlets report that Tehran is reviewing mediators' proposals on its nuclear program, and Qatar's shuttle diplomacy is intensifying. The frozen assets issue is not new — on October 21, reports surfaced about an interest-bearing arrangement for $6 billion in Qatari banks — but today, the political weakness of Washington is a new element.

Meanwhile, the physical market is softening. Gulf crude exports continue despite frequent attacks on vessels in Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has cut prices for Asian buyers even though Asian margins are at six-year lows. Producers are now competing for market share; Asian refiners and importers benefit, while exporters lose out on price, not volume.

The price path matters for central banks. If oil climbs back toward the highs, the Bank of England will be closer to a second hike, in Andrew Bailey's words, and the Fed, already weighing a December move, would have another reason to tighten. That is why Brent's $19-range swings ripple through FX: expensive oil supports the dollar and pressures the pound and euro.

I believe the market is paying not for actual supply shortfalls, which are not currently the problem, but for the White House's decision. With Trump weighing a strike versus a deal and Tehran making unacceptable demands, any report from Axios or similar outlets can swing prices by 3–4%. I expect Brent to trade around $100 in the near term, with risk of sudden moves both ways. Only a real agreement to secure Hormuz would produce a sustained downtrend.

Technically, the immediate task for buyers is to reclaim resistance at $92. That would open a target near $95, above which progress becomes more difficult. The next target is around $98. On the downside, bears aim to take control at $89. A break below that level would be a serious blow to bulls and could drive oil to $87, with a further target near $84.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders have been expecting at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US dollar, while traders consider other factors secondary.

There was no significant economic news on Thursday, but the currency market had plenty of developments to assess. First, traders reassessed their initial interpretation of the US election results and concluded that the change in the balance of power in Congress could benefit the US dollar. At the very least, the Democrats' victory in the congressional elections is not necessarily negative for the dollar. As a result, the US currency resumed its appreciation.

Overnight, it became known that Donald Trump is still considering the possibility of completely destroying Iran. This would increase geopolitical tensions, which had only recently eased following conciliatory statements from Democrats. However, as developments suggest, Trump has no intention of ending the conflict because of the election losses. Oil prices are rising again, while the US dollar is benefiting from demand for safe-haven assets.

Today, the United States will also release important Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports, which will indicate whether September's disappointing figures were an isolated occurrence. The US dollar's appreciation ahead of these releases suggests that the market is anticipating positive results. However, forecasts indicate that neither report is likely to show particularly encouraging figures. The dollar could weaken in the second half of the day.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar after the CCI indicator formed a second bearish divergence. Consolidation below the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1221 supports the prospect of further declines toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No new emerging divergences are currently visible.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,225 Long positions and 13,595 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 231,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 374,000. Bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributable to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's intention to bring inflation down. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Naturally, various global developments, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unexpected events. Therefore, the European currency is waiting for more favorable conditions.

US and Eurozone Economic Calendar

• Germany – Change in Industrial Production (07:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Change in Retail Sales (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

On November 6, the economic calendar contains six releases, at least two of which are particularly important. Economic data could have a significant impact on market sentiment on Friday, particularly during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Buying opportunities may arise today if the pair reverses near either of the two most recent swing points on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1270. Selling opportunities emerged after the pair closed below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target. These short positions can remain open.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the latest upward wave broke above the previous high. Thus, the bulls continue to control the market. The market has already priced in further FOMC monetary policy tightening in the near term, while the Bank of England's tightening cycle is only beginning. A renewed upward move in the pound is expected after the corrective pullback is complete.

The fundamental background on Thursday allowed bullish traders to continue their strong advance. However, it became clear that the hawkish outcome of the Bank of England meeting had already been priced in by the market. Consequently, the interest rate hike did not trigger another rally in the pound. Moreover, the pound is declining quite sharply on Friday, as the market is once again concerned about a possible resumption of hostilities in the Middle East and strong US labor market data. There are reasons to question whether the labor market and unemployment reports will actually be strong. However, the conflict in the Middle East could indeed resume in the near future, as Donald Trump can still make decisions about military operations without seeking approval from Congress. Congress will undoubtedly attempt to block a war with Iran by passing the relevant legislation. However, Trump has veto power, which he can use to block any decisions made by Democrats. In my view, the likelihood of renewed hostilities is increasing again. The congressional elections have taken place, and Trump had intended to resume attacks on Iran afterward.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and declined to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3405. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and could lead to a recovery toward the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level. Consolidation below 1.3405 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 1.3342. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 2,417, while the number of Short positions rose by 1,411. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 57,000 versus 136,000. The bears maintain a substantial advantage, which continues to widen over time. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but the situation has become less clear as the fundamental background has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound is still not considered convincing. However, developments in the near future will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had even properly begun. The war between the two countries could resume in full force as early as November.

US and UK Economic Calendar

• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

On November 6, the economic calendar contains four events, with Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate being the most significant. The impact of economic data on market sentiment could be substantial on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Selling opportunities emerged after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3469 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3404 and 1.3342. The first target has been reached, and the positions can remain open. Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from 1.3404, with a target of 1.3454–1.3469.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3674 to 1.3137 on the 4-hour chart.

Adding to the pressure were concerns that Democratic control of Congress will bring tougher oversight of the AI sector. That hit tech stocks and, through them, crypto — which was already suffering from the Binance hack and cooling retail interest. Even falling Treasury yields, which normally support speculative assets, did not help this time.

It's clear Bitcoin doesn't depend on tech profits, but investors sell correlated risk positions when cutting risk exposure, and leveraged liquidations amplify the move. Losers include miners and crypto-exchange equities; winners were those who locked in profits earlier.

Technically, the picture has worsened. Bitcoin had been trading above the cost basis of short-term holders (CryptoQuant) at $75,832, but the price has now fallen below that level. A month ago, almost all coins bought in the past 155 days were in profit; now the majority are underwater. That means any rally toward purchase prices will meet sellers trying to exit at breakeven.

Views on the outlook diverge. Some see the drop as part of a general risk reduction and argue yesterday's rally should not have occurred. Others say the fall was driven by factors unrelated to Bitcoin's price cycle and fundamentals and expect long-term growth to resume once the market calms. I believe that until the tech sector stabilizes, Bitcoin will remain under pressure, and the ETF inflows on Wednesday were too weak to change that. In the coming days, I expect trading below $76,000, with bounces running into the $77,700–78,000 area — the cost basis of recent buyers.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,900, which would open a direct path to $78,500 and then toward $79,900 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $75,300. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $72,800. The next downside target would be around $71,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,241 would open a direct path to $2,312. The farther target is the $2,383 high; overcoming that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,176. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,137. The next downside target would be around $2,084.

Chart notes:

• Red levels denote support and resistance points where price is expected to either stall or accelerate.
• Green shows the 50-day moving average.
• Blue shows the 100-day moving average.
• Light green shows the 200-day moving average.

Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.

This is clearly a continuation of Thursday's rout, when the S&P 500 plunged 4.4% — the worst performance since the tariff shock in April 2025. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 6.4% and lost $2.3 trillion of market cap. It's the worst week for semiconductors since April last year. Remarkably fast was the shift in logic. As recently as Wednesday, investors were betting that a Democratic wave would speed the end of the Iran war, and tech giants added nearly $1 trillion on hopes that tighter rules on AI spending would ease pressure on cash flows. Now the market sees regulation as a threat to the entire chain from chipmakers to data-centre builders.

The causal chain looks like this. New Democratic Texas governor Gina Hinojosa called for an immediate moratorium on data-centre projects, and winning candidates in other states have echoed that demand. As a result, about 40% of planned US data-centre capacity sits in states where new governors have promised to halt or pause construction. The biggest losers are Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Arm — whose orders depend on build-out pace — and Korean memory manufacturers.

Winners so far are bonds and the dollar. China's 10-year yield fell to an intraday record low on safe-haven demand and excess liquidity; US Treasuries held Thursday's gains, and the dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies.

Oil adds contradictions. Brent rose 1.7% to $99.93/bbl after a 3.9% jump in the previous session. For context: on Wednesday it closed at $94.62, on Thursday morning it was about $93.6, last Monday it closed at $104.77, and at the end of October it had climbed toward $118. Hopes for a quick end to the Iran war after Republican setbacks were overwhelmed by panic around AI, and commodities are retracing some of the fall.

The Fed's main focus remains the US nonfarm payrolls. Consensus suggests that the US economy could have added 65,000 jobs (versus 29,000 in September), with an unemployment rate at near 4.18% versus an expected 4.2%. I believe the market is now reacting to political headlines faster than to measured estimates of real losses. But the risk to the chain is real: 40% of new projects depend on the decisions of incoming governors. All this implies continued volatility in markets and the tech sector in the coming sessions, with only partial rebounds, while the dollar and government bonds are likely to remain beneficiaries.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

Buyers' main task today is to overcome immediate resistance at 7,355. That would confirm upside and open the way to a push toward 7,381. Equally important for bulls is holding control above 7,404 to strengthen their positions. On a downside move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must step in around 7,328. A breach would quickly drive the instrument back to 7,300 and open the path to 7,279.

Stock?index dynamics

No sector of the S&P 500 closed in the green. The VIX volatility index recorded its sharpest spike since April 2025; fear now dominates the US stock market amid severe shocks to the AI industry. Fears that Democrats will put roadblocks in front of tech companies are compounded by concerns that colossal AI investments are not paying off.

Formally, the trigger for the S&P 500 sell-off was disappointing corporate results from Qualcomm, a long-time chip supplier for Apple. In reality, investors' nerves were wound so tight that one relatively small company became the butterfly that set off a storm. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 12% — the second-worst daily drop in its history. NVIDIA's largest decline since January 2025 wiped out all the issuer's gains for the year.

S&P 500 dynamics and equal-weight ETF performance

A day earlier, there had been rotation in the stock market: divided government was seen as a boon for the economy, with investors selling tech and buying other sectors. On Thursday, everything changed. It became clear that restrictions on building and commissioning data centres will hurt not only chipmakers. They will negatively affect construction and industrial firms, banks that financed projects, and the tech giants that use the chips.

Not only markets but the real economy will suffer. It's no surprise that the Nasdaq Composite has entered a correction — its 11th in the past decade — and has entered a bear market five times over that period. A bear market here means a 20% decline from record highs.

What's next? Nobody wants to catch falling daggers while the Middle East conflict continues and the Fed keeps tightening policy. On the other hand, a statement by the new Texas governor that commissioning of data centres in 2027–2028 is not off the table suggests the underlying case may still hold. Is fear really that overblown?

Technically, a breakout strategy worked on the S&P 500 daily chart. A break below the trading range of 7,650–7,720 allowed traders to enter short positions. As long as the broad index remains below the pivot resistance at 7,460, it makes sense to keep the focus on selling.

The trigger was Thursday's acceleration of chipmakers' sell-off on worries about how a Democratic Congress will affect the AI sector. Some investors began selling gold to reduce risk and free up liquidity.

The contrast with earlier in the week is stark. On Wednesday morning, spot was around $3,942, then the metal jumped more than 3% on the day — the strongest daily gain since August — and on Thursday in Asia, the price reached roughly $4,140. The bet was simple: new politicians will fight inflation, much driven by the Iran conflict, and divided government will constrain Trump's fiscal agenda — meaning lower spending and borrowing. But that logic has two opposing implications. If inflation is under control, the Fed gains more room and rate pressure eases, which supports a non-yielding metal. At the same time, tighter fiscal expansion is theoretically less supportive for gold, which some investors buy as protection against unchecked government spending and deficits.

Then, the dollar kicked in. It strengthened on Thursday, enough to check gold since the metal is dollar-priced. On Friday, the pressure intensified: the dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies, whereas on Wednesday it was the weakest in the group. That benefits dollar holders and cash/bond investors, while leveraged gold holders are forced to cut positions to meet margin calls.

The key question is why the stock sell-off did not translate into the usual safe-haven bid for gold. The answer lies in rates. The market still prices a Fed hike in December, and another one in March, and high energy prices support inflation expectations. I think the pattern of the past two weeks is repeating: on October 22–23 gold was sold to raise liquidity; on October 30 it fell below $4,000 together with AI stocks, and now it is giving up gains again. The metal is acting as a source of cash to cover losses, not as a haven.

The next twist in the road depends on the US nonfarm payrolls. Consensus expects payrolls to rise by 65,000 after 29,000 in September. A weak print would be bearish for the dollar and Fed-hike expectations, which would support gold.

Technical view: buyers need to reclaim immediate resistance at $4,060. That would target $4,124, above which further gains will be difficult. The farther target is $4,192. On the downside, bears will try to take control of $4,000. A decisive break below that range would hit bulls hard and push gold toward $3,954, with a further extension to $3,906.

Hammack also proposed a tactical shift. She prefers "more frequent, smaller adjustments where possible," arguing this approach reduces the risk that policy will lag and an inflationary mentality becomes entrenched. For markets, this implies 25-bp moves at multiple meetings rather than rare large jumps. Hammack was one of two Fed voters against leaving rates unchanged on October 28 (she and Lisa Cook dissented); the vote then was 10–2. Back in July, three members dissented—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—so Hammack's stance has not softened while her circle of supporters has narrowed.

Hammack's arguments rest on data. Inflation remains above target for nearly six years; pressures are broad-based and come from both demand and supply. Core PCE in September was 3.0%, and total PCE was 3.6%, versus the 2% goal. She also cited signs of labor market strength, consistent with yesterday's report showing initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 versus a 197,000 forecast. Taken together, labor and price data give the Fed little reason to pause.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin yesterday also backed a gradual pace of hikes but declined to say how high policy will need to go. Traders now see a December hike and another in March as likely. That shifts the horizon: earlier the market discussed only a December move (probabilities around 67–75%, and about 85% on October 28); now two consecutive hikes are priced in, which would push the funds rate toward roughly 4.25–4.50%.

There is also a political context. Democrats won both chambers of Congress this week, which reduces the risk of direct White House pressure on rates, and Hammack used the moment to stress central bank independence. She argued the Fed has earned credibility as a data-driven institution rather than one swayed by short-term political forces, supporting the dollar's status. She also noted that dollar dominance rests on the rule of law, liquid markets, and central bank independence.

All this leads me to see no case for a December pause: a move to 4.00–4.25% remains the baseline. Continued hawkish Fed rhetoric will support the dollar. Today's jobs report (consensus +65,000) and speeches by Williams, Musalem, and Bowman will determine how confidently the market prices the March hike; if data are not weaker than forecast, I expect renewed pressure on the euro and the pound.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Buyers should think about taking 1.1210. Only then would a test of 1.1245 be possible. From there a move to 1.1275 is attainable, but achieving that without support from major players will be difficult. On a decline, I expect substantial buying only around 1.1175. If there is nobody there, it would be sensible to wait for a fresh low at 1.1140 or to open longs from 1.1110.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3435. Only then would a move to 1.3460 be possible, above which further progress will be difficult. The furthest target is around 1.3485. On a drop, bears will try to seize control at 1.3405. If they succeed, a range break would inflict serious damage on bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3380 with a prospect of extension to 1.3355.

A chair's powers are materially broader than those of a committee minority leader. Warren would gain the authority to launch investigations, summon company executives to hearings, and oversee the financial industry. Trump-linked crypto projects, including World Liberty Financial—flagged by Democrats immediately after their victory—would likely come under scrutiny. Warren earlier asked regulators to pause consideration of that firm's bank licence application until Trump exits the business, and she warned that "we have never seen conflicts of this scale." Prediction markets could also attract attention because of potential insider trading.

Legislative consequences are no less serious. The Banking Committee plays a central role in advancing a crypto bill, and each procedural step can now be prolonged with hearings and requests for additional safeguards. CLARITY Act already failed a procedural Senate vote at 49–50, and now the bill faces a more hostile chair. That further erodes the already low odds of passage in the near term.

Democrats are preparing their own CLARITY alternative. It envisions separate supervision by the SEC and the CFTC, but with a larger SEC role and a narrower remit for the CFTC. That is a meaningful shift for the industry because the SEC traditionally treats tokens more aggressively and often classifies them as securities. The draft would also include restrictions on crypto activities by Trump and other federal officials. Republicans call the initiative political; a presidential veto—which cannot be overridden without a two-thirds majority—makes rapid passage unlikely.

The combination is damaging for markets: without a law there is no clarity for institutional capital, and with a tough chair the risk of investigations and high-profile hearings rises. Attracting fresh capital under such conditions is difficult, especially while ETF funds are bleeding money. I expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure until the tech sector stabilizes, and I see trading below $76,000 with a test of support at $73,800.

Bitcoin

The market trades in a narrow range between $75,000 and $75,800, and the plan is built around two mirror directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. A buy is considered on a break above $75,800 if the price holds above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; the target then lies at $77,200, where profits should be taken and a short on the pullback considered. If a downside break below $75,000 proves false and the price returns, buy from that level, targeting $75,800 and then $77,200.

Sell scenarios are mirrored. A confirmed break below $75,000, when the 50-day MA is above price and Awesome is below zero, opens a short toward $73,800. If a breakout above $75,800 fails to hold and the price is rejected, sell into the move to $75,000 and then lower to $73,800.

Ether

The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: range set by $2,210 (support) and $2,234 (resistance), with $2,067 below and $2,283 above as additional references. A buy is considered on a break above $2,234 provided the price is above the 50-day MA and Awesome is above zero, with a target of $2,283 where profits should be taken; alternatively, if a downside false break below $2,210 reverses, buy toward $2,234 and then $2,283.

A sell is opened on a confirmed break below $2,210 when the MA is above price and Awesome is below zero, targeting $2,067; or on a failed attempt to clear $2,234, targeting $2,210 and then $2,067. Both indicators are used as filters to discard false moves rather than standalone entry triggers; decisions are taken only after price has actually confirmed the indicated levels.

The test of the 158.22 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the US dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 157.94.

Japan reported encouraging wage data, but this may not be enough to support the yen. Nominal wages increased by 4.6% year over year in September, compared with analysts' expectations of 3.8%, while the previous month's growth stood at 3.9%. This result was significantly better than expected and brought the indicator back to July levels, when growth reached 4.7%. These figures are important for the Bank of Japan, as sustained income growth is expected to fuel inflation in the services sector, giving the central bank grounds to continue raising its interest rate, which currently stands at 1.25%. It is worth recalling that the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged on October 30 following an 8-1 vote, while Hajime Takata called for an immediate rate hike. More than 80% of economists expect a rate increase at the December 17–18 meeting, and today's wage figures further strengthen this scenario.

However, the external environment remains challenging for the yen. Yesterday, US economic data once again supported the dollar. Weekly jobless claims came in at 189,000, compared with the forecast of 197,000. Labor productivity increased by 3.6% in the third quarter, against expectations of 2.8%, while hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack about the need for restrictive monetary policy further boosted demand for the US currency. The only concerning signal for the dollar was a 0.7% decline in unit labor costs, but the market barely reacted. Today's main test will be the US employment report, with job growth forecast at 65,000 compared with 29,000 in September. Later in the evening, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is also scheduled to speak.

In my view, the overall picture is mixed. Strong Japanese wage growth and expectations of a December rate hike provide solid support for the yen. However, as long as US economic data continue to exceed forecasts and the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, the yen will struggle to appreciate. If the employment report falls short of expectations, the yen will have an opportunity to recover some of its losses.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, USD/JPY will be considered for buying when the price reaches the entry level around 158.00 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 158.33 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.33, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from that level. It is preferable to resume buying the pair during corrective pullbacks and significant declines in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 157.83 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.00 and 158.33 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, USD/JPY will be considered for selling only after the price breaks below the 157.83 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 157.44, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Sellers could return at any moment; all it would take is any indication from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 158.00 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.83 and 157.44 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Yesterday, the Bank of England did everything the market expected and even a little more. The interest rate was raised to 4.00%, with the voting results showing a unanimous 9-0-0 decision. This was the first unanimous decision in more than three years. Nevertheless, the pound remained weaker than the US dollar. The reason is that the rate hike had already been priced in, while the US currency received strong support. Initial jobless claims in the United States came in at 189,000, below the forecast of 197,000, while labor productivity increased by 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with expectations of 2.8%. These figures were accompanied by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack about the need for restrictive monetary policy.

Today, the pound remains in the shadow of the US dollar. During the first half of the day, the only scheduled releases are the Lloyds house price index, which is unlikely to change much based on the forecast, and a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. No new signals are expected from him, as his hawkish stance is already well known to the market. Yesterday's hawkish tone from Bailey also showed that even confident remarks from the central bank governor are currently insufficient to generate interest in the pound. In my view, under these circumstances, UK news simply cannot outweigh the influence of US developments.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for buying when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3431 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.3446 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3446, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from that level. The pound can only be expected to rise today following very strong UK economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.3420 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3431 and 1.3446 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for selling after the price breaks below the 1.3420 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3403, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Negative news will bring renewed pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.3431 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3420 and 1.3403 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1228 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The sudden return of demand for the US dollar pushed the euro lower. Just the day before, the single currency had been holding up thanks to the weakness of the US dollar, but strong US labor market data and remarks by Beth Hammack of the Federal Reserve changed the outlook. The FOMC member emphasized that inflation has remained above the target for almost six years and that monetary policy will need to become restrictive. She also stated that she prefers to take smaller steps more frequently. This is the same message she delivered in October, when the euro hit new monthly lows following her remarks. It confirms that the Fed has no intention of stopping, while a rate hike in December remains the baseline scenario.

Today, euro buyers will find it difficult to count on support from Europe. German industrial production and eurozone retail sales figures will be released in the first half of the day, and forecasts for both indicators are disappointing. For comparison, German industrial production jumped by 2.0% in August, whereas a 0.2% decline is now expected. Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.1% month over month in August after falling by 0.6% in July, while the market is now expecting another 0.1% decline. Annual retail sales growth is also expected to slow to 0.6% from 0.8%. If the data disappoint, pressure on the euro will only intensify.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1202 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1230. At 1.1230, the position will be closed, and the euro will also be sold in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. The euro can only be expected to rise today if the economic data are positive. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.1182 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1202 and 1.1230 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: The euro will be considered for selling after the price reaches the 1.1182 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1154, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from that level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data are weak. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.1202 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1182 and 1.1154 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when using large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.