Meanwhile, the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report looms on the horizon. No matter how much the market now believes in Federal Reserve tightening, the current state of the U.S. labor market cannot be ignored. Recall that traders currently have no explicit signals from the Fed about a planned rate hike. On the contrary, Fed policymakers are not commenting on future rate moves, and Kevin Warsh only speaks about high inflation without the central bank taking coordinated action. But what does all this mean for Bitcoin?

In fact, if the Fed does not tighten policy in 2026, that would be very good for risk assets. And the Nonfarm Payrolls report would significantly reduce the probability of tightening. Remember, the U.S. labor market has been weakening for four months in a row, and the last annual report showed a negative figure that the market interpreted as positive only because it expected an even worse revision. Thus, the weaker tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls prove to be, the better for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. It is not guaranteed that the crypto market will react immediately to this report or to the unemployment rate, but in the medium term abandoning tightening would be supportive.

General picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend. The trend is identified as bearish, and the CHOCH line is at $82,800, where the last Lower High (LH) formed. Only above that level can the downtrend be considered complete. The last and only "bearish" FVG has been pierced and turned into a "bullish" IFVG. Thus, in the future this area will be a POI for long positions. Bitcoin has not yet broken the downtrend, but over the past two weeks the chances of ending the bearish trend have risen sharply. However, there is a high probability of a range forming between $60,000 and $82,500. That would mean price could take liquidity from the last LH and begin a new decline.

General picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe it is obvious how Bitcoin literally shot upwards. Analyzing the 4-hour timeframe right now is of limited use because the moves are too strong. Therefore, signals in the coming days should be sought on the daily or even weekly timeframe. Nevertheless, one point is important: liquidity was taken from the last peak, which warned traders of a possible decline. The decline has already started, but it cannot be guaranteed that it will be large or prolonged. The only pattern worth noting on the 4-hour chart is the bearish FVG. If a downward impulse begins, the price may resume falling from that pattern.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend despite the strong rise last week. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), although that level has effectively already been tested. We do not believe the downtrend has ended. The current rally of the leading cryptocurrency resembles a pump rather than a bona fide corrective structure, and this is not a sufficient reason to open long positions. The current move most resembles a pump: liquidity may be taken from the $82,850 high, which could trigger a decline and confirm a transition to sideways action. On the 4-hour chart one can expect a new leg down from the last bearish FVG.

Explanations for illustrations

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure.

Liquidity — liquidity such as stop losses and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.

FVG — Fair Value Gap / area of price inefficiency: price moves quickly through such areas indicating absence of one side; price often returns to react to such areas in the direction of the main trend.

IFVG — Inverted FVG. After returning to such an area, price may not react and instead impulsively break through and then test from the other side.

OB — Order block. A candle where a market maker opened positions to collect liquidity and then establish a position in the opposite direction.

The GBP/USD pair fell on Wednesday to the support area of 1.3465–1.3480, which may become the terminal point of the dollar's recent advance. In our view, the recent downward move is primarily a correction triggered by dubious factors. No fundamental or macroeconomic drivers may be responsible for it, since technical corrections often occur independently of news and events. For example, this week none of the macro releases supported the US dollar, yet the dollar continued to strengthen. Perhaps the market has become fully convinced that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy at the next meeting. Or perhaps the explanation is purely technical: the pound had been rising for a long time and was due for a pullback.

Yesterday there were no notable events in the UK, while the US published the ADP employment report. According to ADP, private sector employment rose by just 38,000 in August — below even the lowest forecasts and below last month's figure. Thus, even the ADP report did not support the dollar. Bear in mind that ADP has no reliable correlation with the official Nonfarm Payrolls, so Friday's data could still surprise.

Technically, the pound continues to form a downward trend, but this week much will depend on US labor-market, unemployment, and business-activity data. A further decline is possible, but remember that the US economy and labor market have shown relatively weak readings in recent months.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one buy signal formed. The price bounced from the 1.3465–1.3480 area, allowing long positions and suggesting a potential rise in the pound on Thursday.

COT Report

COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that demand for the dollar was strong in the first half of 2026. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists; geopolitics is the main near-term support factor for the US dollar. However, until the pound consolidates below the trend line, we would not expect a strong decline in GBP/USD.

In the long run, the dollar is expected to weaken due to Trump's policies, which is visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains valid as shown by the trend line; price recently retested that line and bounced. According to the latest COT (August 25), the "Non-commercial" group opened 16,300 BUY contracts and 6,200 SELL contracts, so the net position rose by 10,100 contracts during the week.

GBP/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a new downward trend, as indicated by the trendline. But in the long term, the British pound still looks set to rise. We still do not see strong reasons for a prolonged, powerful rise in the U.S. currency, and this week, important overseas reports could create many problems for the dollar. However, technically the decline looks quite natural.

For September 3 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3596) and Kijun-sen (1.3535) may also provide signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss to break even after the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Thursday, the UK will publish a second-estimate services PMI for August (not market-moving), and the U.S. will release the ISM services index and secondary initial jobless claims. We believe the market may react only to the ISM services index.

Trading Recommendations

Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3369–1.3377 if price consolidates below the 1.3465–1.3480 area. Long positions can be opened today in case of a rebound from the 1.3465–1.3480 area with targets at 1.3535 and 1.3588.

Explanations for illustrations

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines where movement may end; not necessarily direct trade signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B — Ichimoku lines transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe; they are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which price has previously bounced; they are sources of trade signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts — size of net positions for each trader category.

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its downward move on Wednesday, but it did refresh its most recent local low. The downtrend remains intact, as shown by the trendline, so the dollar can feel relatively calm and stable until that trendline is broken. That said, there is little real cause for further (even local) dollar strength. The decline began after a month of growth, so this is primarily a correction. This week, none of the U.S. macro releases have supported the dollar. Tomorrow, the most important reports will arrive — Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate for August. The market effectively ignored last Friday's weak annual Nonfarm report. The only thing currently allowing the dollar to rise is market belief in Federal Reserve tightening in September. But belief is not a concrete fact. In our view, the chances of a September rate hike remain low, and Friday's labor data could bury hopes for tightening. Nevertheless, the dollar can remain more or less stable for now.

Technically, the pair continues the downward trend supported by its trendline. Thus, the decline may continue in the near term. Several more important reports will be released this week, but the market already shows that it is mainly focused on the Nonfarm payrolls.

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trade signals formed on Thursday. First, the pair bounced from 1.1585 from below, then it breached that level. In both cases, the price failed to move even 15 pips in traders' favor. That is because market volatility has been extremely weak over the past month. On average, the pair moves 30–40 pips per day and only occasionally shows medium-strength moves.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated August 25. On the weekly chart, it is clear that net positions of non-commercial traders have turned bearish and have fallen markedly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been reducing exposure to the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, and for a time the dollar acted as a reserve currency.

We still do not see fundamental factors that support sustained dollar strength. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily very attractive, but when that factor expires, markets should revert to normal — and that process may already be underway. In the long run, the euro could fall as low as the $1.08 trend line, but the multi-year uptrend remains relevant, and the pair has not approached that line despite recent months of dollar growth.

The positions of the red and blue lines on the COT indicator indicate approximate parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group rose by 2,700 while shorts decreased by 20,000. Accordingly, the net position increased by 22,700 contracts for the week.

EUR/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and shows no improvement, but that alone is not enough to fuel a new strong rally for the dollar. Kevin Warsh's remarks and the annual Nonfarm Payrolls supported the dollar, yet we see few solid reasons for sustained dollar strength. This week the dollar's advance looks more like a technical correction.

For September 3, we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1639) and Kijun-sen (1.1613). Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so take that into account when determining trade signals. Remember to move Stop Loss to break even after a 15-pip move in your favor to protect against false signals.

On Thursday, second-estimate services PMIs will be published in European countries — these are secondary releases and are unlikely to move the market. Pay special attention to the ISM services index in the U.S.; however, at least until Friday, the market is biased toward buying the dollar and tends to ignore weak U.S. data.

Trading Recommendations

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1536–1.1542 if price consolidates below 1.1585. A fresh rebound from 1.1585 would allow opening long positions targeting 1.1613 and 1.1639.

Explanations for illustrations

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines where movement may end; not necessarily direct trade signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B — Ichimoku lines transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe; they are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which price has previously bounced; they are sources of trade signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts — size of net positions for each trader category.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued moving south on Wednesday. The worst part of this move is that, in the near term, the British pound could again fall toward the 1.3200 area for no obvious reason. This article is not about local macro releases that do not affect the overall trend. It is about global processes and the technical picture.

Looking at the daily chart and zooming out substantially makes it clear that, since around June last year, the GBP/USD pair has been trading in a range. Yes, a range is not necessarily a matter of days or weeks — sometimes it can last for years. Look closely at the chart below. In the past 14 full months, the pound has left the 1.3150–1.3750 band only twice, and both times for literally a few days. What is that if not a sideways channel? Suppose we are dealing with a long-term range. It is then reasonable to assume that global factors led to the formation of this range. The market does not know which direction to trade next, so it makes no sustained attempt to leave the channel. And what is the most important global factor over the past year? Uncertainty.

Global uncertainty is the key reason why neither the dollar, the euro, nor the pound can start a trend. Market participants do not understand what to expect next. A war with Iran could last years — who can say it won't? Look at events in Ukraine, which many initially expected to be over in a couple of months. At the same time, the Iran conflict could end at any moment; nobody knows when Trump might wake up in a good mood and decide that it is enough.

Geopolitical uncertainty breeds monetary uncertainty. Because inflation readings depend on oil prices, which swing wildly and can collapse or soar, the market cannot predict how central banks will act. With the European Central Bank or the Bank of England, you can still form a reasonably coherent forecast, but with the Federal Reserve it has become almost impossible. Too many factors must be taken into account, and Kevin Warsh's new approach to Fed communications has removed almost all market cues.

And then there is the Trump factor. No one knows when the U.S. president will decide to start a new war, see an injustice to America somewhere, sack another Fed official, or launch a new trade war. The market does not know what to expect from Trump and, until he causes fresh trouble, prefers not to force events in the FX market. As 2026 showed, Trump can make decisions that cause the dollar to strengthen — a result few expected at the start of the year. But Trump started a conflict with Iran, and the dollar strengthened, even if the White House did not want that outcome.

Therefore, the pound may fall again to the 1.3200 area simply because the long-term flat persists.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 48 pips, which is considered "low" for the pound/dollar. On Thursday, September 3, we therefore expect the pair to move within a range bounded by 1.3449 and 1.3545. The higher channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating an uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3489

S2 – 1.3428

S3 – 1.3367

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3550

R2 – 1.3611

R3 – 1.3672

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair maintains an uptrend. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. 2026 has been positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every story ends. On the weekly timeframe, the pair remains flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, allowing for the expectation of continued pound appreciation in the medium term. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3611 and 1.3672 when price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, consider trading the downside with targets at 1.3449 and 1.3428.

Explanations for illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which trading should be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility.
• The CCI indicator — entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) signals an approaching trend reversal.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish decline on Wednesday, with minimal volatility. It feels like the market is doing someone a favor right now. You can't completely stop opening new trades, but you also very much don't want to open new trades. So the market moves just for form's sake, to tick a box so no one can say it's standing still. But you can't fool the volatility indicator. If the pair moves only 40 pips from low to high in a day and this repeats day after day, the conclusion is obvious: traders don't have much desire to trade right now. The question is why.

The answer, in fact, is painfully simple. There are a huge number of factors that theoretically influence market sentiment, and you can't be certain which factors truly matter to traders and which don't. Take one of 2026's key themes — geopolitics. Guns have thundered again in the Middle East, rockets have been launched, and the rhetoric of the leaders of Iran and the U.S. is full of threats. That suggests a new escalation that could, in theory, support the safe-haven dollar. But at the same time, traders know full well that Iran and the U.S. are at war today, and tomorrow there may be a truce or a pause. Today Trump threatens to destroy Iran; tomorrow he announces a deal is near. Moreover, the dollar's rise amid geopolitical turmoil is not simply due to the conflict itself but to capital fleeing the region and its owners seeking to move assets into the most liquid currency — the dollar. So ask who among capital owners hasn't already fled the Middle East? That reduces the unique safety premium for the dollar.

Consider the Federal Reserve's monetary policy — it's even more confusing. Kevin Warsh has repeatedly warned that current inflation is unacceptable, and markets repeatedly interpret his words as a precursor to future tightening. Yet look at the macro data and serious doubts emerge about a rate rise before year-end. Nonfarm Payrolls reports keep disappointing; the economy is slowing, inflation is easing. Why would the Fed raise rates, especially given that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded lower rates? So many contradictions remain. The market keeps oscillating between expecting tightening and not expecting it.

Remember also the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase bond buybacks. Effectively, this is a form of quantitative easing — albeit without printing additional dollars — which, in any case, eases. So the Treasury loosens while the Fed tightens? Does that mean the Fed won't raise rates? And if the Fed does not tighten, what about inflation that could accelerate in August and September?

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of September 3 is 46 pips and is characterized as "medium." We expect the pair to move between 1.1546 and 1.1638 on Thursday. The higher channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating the start of an upward trend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area, warning of a possible end to the correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1536

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1414

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1658

R3 – 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, which may mark the beginning of a new leg of a global uptrend on higher timeframes. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics first, and then the Fed's hawkish stance, provided strong support for the US currency. However, at present, those factors are no longer supporting the dollar. With the price below the moving average, consider short positions on corrective grounds, targeting 1.1546 and 1.1536. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1719.

Explanations for illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which trading should be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility.
• The CCI indicator — entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) signals an approaching trend reversal.

There are relatively few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Thursday. Most are completely secondary. For example, Germany, the UK, the Eurozone and the US will publish second-estimate services PMIs for August. These releases are unlikely to provoke any notable market reaction. In the US, initial jobless claims and the ISM services index will be published. The ISM services index is the most important report of the day that traders may react to — but even here a strong reaction is unlikely.

Analysis of fundamental events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events are speeches by Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee members Beth Hammack and Christopher Waller. Recall that the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has tightened guidance on officials' public communications, and they are now prohibited from commenting on future changes to the policy rate. Therefore, we strongly doubt that Hammack or Waller will provide a clear forecast for the September meeting. The market is left guessing what the Fed will decide in September, and forecasts for that event keep changing.

The geopolitical backdrop remains worrying. The US and Iran are not currently negotiating; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed; the Yemeni Houthis continue to blockade Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump has decided to carry out an unprecedented economic campaign aimed at weakening Iran and threatens to sanction any countries that in any way interact with it. So far, however, no one has publicly supported Trump's plan to "destroy" Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. What is known is that the US carried out its first strikes in a month on launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz, to which Iran responded by announcing a military operation against the US and its regional allies. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up again.

Overall conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, currency pairs may trade rather quietly again. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1584–1.1594 area, and the pound from the 1.3456–1.3476 area. Overall, declines in the euro and the pound may continue because technical trends for both pairs have turned downward — but tomorrow, the US Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate will be released, and those reports can strongly affect market sentiment and views of the dollar.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades, or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H chart of the GBP/USD pair

The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Wednesday, although there were few reasons for this beyond technical factors. A few days ago, the price left the ascending channel, so the pound may continue to fall on technical grounds. However, there is no real fundamental or macroeconomic support for the dollar. One could argue that geopolitics in the Middle East has worsened again and that Kevin Warsh once more spoke about high inflation in the U.S., which increases the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset and raises the probability of Federal Reserve tightening. We believe, however, that this is not entirely the case. The current state of the U.S. labor market does not, in our view, justify a rate hike, and Warsh has been talking about high inflation all summer, yet the Fed has not taken hawkish steps. Yesterday only one report was published — the ADP employment report — and, as has been typical this week, it came in weaker than forecasts and could not have driven dollar strength. Nevertheless, the American currency is still retracing gains.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one buy signal was formed. At the start of the U.S. session, the price bounced from the 1.3456–1.3476 area, allowing novice traders to open long positions. The pound failed to extend the upward move, but another bounce from that area may occur today.

How to trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD remains in a downward corrective trend. In our view, the pound should continue to rise in the medium term, but it is currently in correction. On the weekly timeframe, the move from the lower bound of the sideways channel toward the upper bound continues, and that movement may not yet be complete. Friday improved sentiment for the U.S. currency, but that support is unlikely to last.

On Thursday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3380–1.3386 if price consolidates below the 1.3456–1.3476 area. Long positions can be opened targeting 1.3587–1.3598 if the price bounces from the 1.3456–1.3476 area.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider trading the following levels: 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741. On Thursday, the UK will publish the second-estimate services PMI for August (a secondary release). In the U.S., the ISM services index — a fairly important report — will be released.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades, or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair tried to continue downward after breaking the ascending trend line, but it is now rather difficult for the dollar to keep rising. Recall that global factors continue to support every currency except the U.S. dollar, and even over the past two weeks (during which the dollar strengthened) there were virtually no solid reasons for its rise. For example, this week the U.S. released four relatively important reports on the labor market and business activity, and none of them supported the American currency. Thus, the current strengthening of the dollar is purely corrective, driven by technical factors and by the market's belief in Federal Reserve tightening in September. Last Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh once again spoke about high inflation in the U.S., which the market interpreted as a signal that tightening may be forthcoming. That is why the dollar is rising, despite the weak labor-market indicators.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, four trading signals formed, but traders spent most of the day indecisive about direction. First, the price bounced three times from the 1.1584–1.1594 area but failed to move even 15 pips in the desired direction. Later, there was a consolidation above 1.1584–1.1594, but the pair could not continue higher either.

How to trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD remains in a correction after a month of growth. Considering all recent events, we believe the euro should continue to rise steadily even without local support. The U.S. currency currently has no growth drivers other than the market's near-religious belief in a Fed rate hike.

On Thursday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1527–1.1531 if price settles below the 1.1584–1.1594 area. Long positions can be opened on a rebound from 1.1584–1.1594, targeting 1.1655–1.1665.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider these levels: 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1830–1.1837. On Thursday, the Eurozone and Germany will publish second-estimate services PMIs, and in the U.S., claims for unemployment benefits and the ISM services index will be released. We recommend paying particular attention to the ISM services index.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The shorter the time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades, or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading at the moment.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

Yields on 10- and 20-year U.S. government bonds continue to rise despite the Treasury Department's best efforts. Briefly, why did this happen and what risks does it pose for the U.S. economy and budget?

Opinions vary among analysts, but I believe Donald Trump's policies, especially on the international front, have prompted many foreign investors to shy away from U.S. securities. Demand for these bonds has fallen sharply, so yields have risen to attract new buyers. Demand remains low, so yields keep climbing.

Why is that dangerous? Higher yields increase U.S. government interest payments. In simple terms, the U.S. government must borrow at ever-higher rates, which adds pressure on the budget and raises overall public debt. Last week, U.S. national debt exceeded $40 trillion. Annual interest payments on the debt passed $1 trillion. It is obvious: the higher yields climb, the larger future interest bills will be — and we are talking about high interest costs that may need to be serviced for decades.

It is also easy to infer that total U.S. debt will continue to rise. I don't know whether this will lead to default, but the attractiveness of the U.S. economy for foreign investors is declining. As the appeal of the U.S. economy falls, so does the appeal of the dollar. That is another reason I would currently expect the dollar to weaken rather than strengthen. Yet the market is now fixated on the Federal Reserve's September meeting and seems convinced the Fed will raise the policy rate. That view supports demand for U.S. currency and has forced revisions to the wave counts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Now both pairs could fall several hundred pips further — but, in my view, such a move should be backed by substantial news flow. Personally, I don't think the dollar currently has that kind of news support.

It currently has two potential positives: possible escalation in the Middle East and a possible Fed decision to raise interest rates. Neither event is certain to occur. Therefore, I prefer to avoid new downward waves that contradict virtually everything else right now.

Wave count for EUR/USD:

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a corrective downward segment of the trend. That segment is taking on an increasingly complex shape. It appears this segment may form an A–B–C–D–E structure. If that is indeed the case, the decline should continue toward targets below the low of wave C — 1.1325. If so, now would be a good time to build short positions, since the instrument has the potential to fall by at least 350 pips.

Wave count for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become relatively clear but could still become more complex. The charts show a distinct corrective A–B–C structure that looks complete. Therefore, I expect an ensuing impulsive set of upward waves. However, the current wave labeling on EUR/USD raises doubts. If the euro develops a five-wave downward structure, then GBP/USD could also fall toward the 1.31 area. In that case, the pound's wave count would need to be revised and would take a different form and structure.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and readable. Complex structures are harder to trade and often change.
2. If you are not confident about what the market is doing, it's better to stay out.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in direction. Always use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

However, the quality of that growth raises questions. The improvement in the trade balance occurred against a 1.6% deterioration in terms of trade due to a sharp rise in imported oil prices. That means Australia is paying more for imports, which eats into the benefits from export revenues.

Business activity in August continued to expand for the third consecutive month (composite PMI at 52.5), but growth momentum has slowed. Producer spending is rising, and input-cost inflation has accelerated, especially in manufacturing. Despite higher costs, companies are reluctant to pass them on to consumers — the output-price index rose at the slowest pace since the start of the year. This points to margin compression and weak demand confidence.

The labor market is holding up for now. Employment has risen in 19 of the past 20 months, although hiring pace is the weakest in three months. The Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts unemployment will gradually rise toward 4.5–4.8%.

The RBA's response to the current situation is a "hawkish pause." In August, the cash rate was left at 4.35%, with the Bank acknowledging that the current rate is already restraining the economy and that further slowing may be acceptable. Inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, and that nuance prevents markets from fully ruling out another hike. All these forecasts assume the Middle East conflict will be resolved and energy prices will normalize; if that does not happen, inflation could be higher and more persistent.

The net short position on AUD/USD decreased by $0.43bn over the reporting week to -$2.7bn; the implied price remains above the long-term average.

Despite everything, the Aussie continues to climb, indicating internal strength even after Warsh's hawkish comments or another escalation in the Persian Gulf. If tensions persist, consolidation may begin. If US inflation prints come in softer than expected, weakening the dollar, AUD could test 0.7200 and even 0.7277 (this year's high).

If geopolitical tensions rise further and the Federal Reserve continues to send hawkish signals, a retracement toward the psychological 0.7000 level could form — but for now the trend remains bullish.

So, following Wednesday's meeting, the RBNZ raised the policy rate by 25 basis points — from 2.50% to 2.75%. The decision was taken by consensus, i.e., unanimously: all members of the Committee supported the tightening. This is a key difference from the May meeting, when votes were split 3–3, and Governor Anna Breman's decisive vote kept the rate unchanged.

At the September meeting, the Committee showed unanimity on the rate hike, but divisions remained within the Committee regarding inflationary risks. Four RBNZ members said those risks are skewed to the upside, while the others called them balanced, even as they emphasized significant risks to economic activity.

As a result, the RBNZ said the future path of the policy rate is not predetermined — further decisions will depend on incoming data and the balance of medium-term inflation risks. Moreover, the OCR forecast itself was practically unchanged from May's projection despite the implemented tightening. The central bank expects the rate to be around 2.8% by the end of this year and 3.15% by the end of 2027. That effectively corresponds to one more 25-basis-point hike in December, assuming a pause at the October meeting.

Those relatively cautious projections acted as a cold shower: market participants who had been pricing a more aggressive tightening cycle — possibly pushing the rate toward 3.5% — must now materially lower their expectations.

At the same time, the inflation picture does not look unequivocally hawkish. Yes, headline CPI accelerated year-on-year to 4.1%, but the main driver of that rise was higher fuel and fuel-related prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Inflation excluding motor fuels fell to 2.9%; most core inflation indicators remain inside the 1–3% target range, and inflation expectations over the one- to two-year horizon have declined.

It is also worth noting that at the September meeting, the central bank spoke in some detail about the weaknesses of the national economy. Committee members noted that Q2 GDP growth was sluggish, unemployment remains elevated, consumer spending is weak, and spare capacity (especially in the labor market) remains significant. As a result, the RBNZ acknowledged the risks of a decline in economic activity as "material."

The New Zealand dollar came under significant pressure for a simple reason: market participants expected more hawkish and clearer signals from the central bank about the future path of rates. Instead, the RBNZ effectively signaled a likely pause in October while leaving the door ajar for further tightening in December. The classic trading adage "buy the rumor, sell the fact" therefore played out. For NZD/USD, this is especially sensitive to changes in the interest-rate differential — US yields are rising faster than New Zealand yields, so the carry advantage that might have supported the kiwi is narrowing. An additional blow to NZD/USD was the broad strengthening of the greenback: the escalation in the Middle East sparked demand for safe-haven assets, pushing oil prices higher and strengthening expectations of Fed rate hikes before year-end.

From a technical standpoint, the situation is mixed. On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD bears have broken the 0.5830 support (the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart) and are trading below all Ichimoku lines, which have produced a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. However, on the daily chart, sellers have not managed to close decisively below the key support at 0.5800 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud, coinciding with the daily lower Bollinger Band). That is the critical and largely decisive level. If NZD/USD buyers can hold above this target, short positions will lose relevance (including due to profit-taking). In that case, a retracement to the 4-hour middle Bollinger Band — roughly the 0.5890 area — is likely. Conversely, a confident break of 0.5800, followed by consolidation below it, would materially increase the probability of further declines toward 0.5750 and lower.

The next 24 hours may be decisive: the balance will tilt in favor of either buyers or sellers depending on whether bulls can defend 0.5800. Therefore, it is sensible to adopt a wait-and-see stance on the pair now. A reliable bounce from that level will be the first signal in favor of an upward correction, whereas a break and close below it will significantly strengthen bearish sentiment.

The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. There is still no question of canceling the upward section of the trend (lower chart), which began in January last year. On the contrary, we saw a complete corrective A-B-C structure, which has most likely been completed. We never got the convincing wave 5 of C that we were expecting. This wave took a truncated form, which also occurs from time to time. Let me remind you that classical wave structures are generally found only in textbooks. In real life, traders and analysts should be more flexible in their analysis.

Unfortunately, the wave count may once again become more complex at present. Wave C may take a three-wave form, the wave following it will be identified as wave D, and the entire trend section beginning on January 27 will take the form of a five-wave corrective A-B-C-D-E structure. If this assumption is correct, wave D is taking a three-wave form, and on August 21, EUR/USD entered the phase of forming wave E, whose low should be below the low of wave C — 1.1325.

None of the reports this week supported the dollar. But the dollar is rising.

The EUR/USD exchange rate declined by 15 basis points during Wednesday's trading. Market movements are currently extremely strange because demand for the U.S. currency has been steadily increasing this week, even though there has not been a single economic event in favor of the U.S. dollar. The week's economic hit parade began with the inflation report from the European Union. Despite the fact that the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.3%, significantly increasing the likelihood of an ECB monetary policy tightening as early as September, the market did not consider the report sufficient reason to buy the euro. Next came the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came in below market expectations but also failed to trigger any strengthening of the euro. The JOLTS report also failed to please traders with the number of job openings in the United States. Today, the ADP report was released, and its figure also came in below market expectations — just 38,000. This figure is extremely weak in itself, so I am not even interested in what level the forecasts were at. In any case, the forecasts were higher.

This means that all the reports this week supported the European currency, yet for some reason the dollar is rising. This phenomenon can only be explained by a sharp increase in expectations of a hawkish Fed decision at the September meeting. And hawkish expectations began to rise after Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. In my view, the market is once again mistaken, and sentiment may deteriorate sharply as early as Friday, following the release of unemployment and payroll data. However, there is nothing preventing market participants from constantly changing their expectations. Let me remind you that a month ago, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September was estimated at 70–80%, a week ago it did not exceed 33%, and now it is back to almost 70%.

Overall Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a corrective downward section of the trend (lower chart), which is becoming increasingly complex. It appears that this trend section will take the form of A-B-C-D-E. If this is indeed the case, the decline in prices will continue, with targets located below the low of wave C — 1.1325. If so, now is a good time to establish short positions, as the instrument has downward potential of at least 350 points.

On the higher timeframe, an upward section of the trend can be seen, after which a corrective wave sequence began to form. The A-B-C structure is presumably complete. If this is the case, a new impulsive upward section of the trend has begun to form.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a move. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair declined for six days, but the bears' advance may end here. Overall, it can be said with confidence that the bears truly attacked only last Friday, when FOMC President Kevin Warsh first gave a speech, followed by a revision of the annual Nonfarm Payrolls data. Neither of these events was unequivocally bearish; nevertheless, they can be interpreted that way if one chooses to do so. As I wrote earlier, the Nonfarm Payrolls report could have been much worse than it ultimately was, while Warsh's speech could once again be interpreted as containing hawkish tones. However, if we assess the situation objectively, I see no reason for the dollar to rise even on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a negative figure, while Kevin Warsh merely spoke about high inflation but did not promise to raise interest rates or take any specific measures. The price of the European currency fell to the base of imbalance 21, and the decline has ended there for now. From here, everything will depend primarily on the U.S. labor market and unemployment data due to be released on Friday.

Overall, in my view, the fundamental backdrop continues to fully support the bulls. First, any chart clearly shows that the European currency began its rise from relatively low levels, compared with the average price over the past year. This means that it still has upward potential. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what statements Warsh makes. Third, U.S. economic data has recently been a source of disappointment. Fourth, geopolitics no longer supports the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB may implement another monetary policy tightening this autumn. Sixth, the U.S. Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, which reduces demand for the dollar. Seventh, a new trade war between the United States and Canada and between the United States and China could begin in the near future. Eighth, the U.S. labor market is contracting, which could put an end to Warsh's hawkish initiatives. Thus, I currently see no reason whatsoever for a bearish advance.

The latest U.S. labor market data showed weak figures, inflation showed a slowdown, and GDP showed a decline in its growth rate. These three factors make me doubt that the FOMC will raise rates not only in September but also before the end of the year. In my view, the bears' only opportunity at present lies in a new escalation in the Middle East.

The current chart picture points to the continuation of bullish momentum. The price has completely filled the latest bullish imbalance 21 and may even touch the previous bullish imbalance 20. The combined reaction to these two patterns could bring the bulls back into the market, and the upward movement will resume. If one or both patterns are invalidated, the bears will then be able to launch their own advance, but even in that case they will need fundamental support. Where could they get it?

There was virtually no economic backdrop on Wednesday. The only report worth noting, ADP in the United States, did not trigger any market reaction, as traders are once again betting on Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be released on Friday. For imbalance 20 to be invalidated, Nonfarm Payrolls would finally need to show a strong figure.

There are still a huge number of reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I see no significant factors supporting the U.S. currency, despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitics, which supported demand for the U.S. currency for most of the first half of 2026, is no longer doing so. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, but there have been no new hostilities from either Iran or the United States.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany — Services Purchasing Managers' Index (07:55 UTC).
• European Union — Services Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC).
• United States — Change in Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
• United States — ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (14:00 UTC).

On September 3, the economic events calendar contains four entries, among which I would highlight the ISM index. The economic backdrop may affect market sentiment in the second half of the day on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that paused for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. In the long term, I would say that the pair is range-bound. However, a range does not invalidate the broader trend. Thus, the bulls may well continue their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support level in the form of imbalance 20, where a new bullish signal may form. I consider 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the upward targets for the European currency.

The GBP/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum. Unfortunately. In my view, saving the pound from another decline lies exclusively in the hands of... the euro. The euro currency is currently still maintaining its bullish bias and has not invalidated the last two bullish imbalances. These imbalances could save both the euro and the pound. As I said earlier, I see no reason for the bears to take control. For example, it is extremely difficult to explain today's or yesterday's decline in the pound. Today, the pound lost around 30 points even before the release of the only ADP report. Yesterday, the pound also lost around 30 points. In total, the pound has already fallen by 180 points, although I still see no compelling reasons for this decline. Unfortunately, only in hindsight can we assume that the market is once again concerned about a war in the Middle East, which is increasing demand for the dollar as a "safe haven." Or perhaps traders firmly believe that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, which I personally find highly doubtful. In any case, all bullish patterns have been invalidated, and traders now have only two bearish patterns at their disposal — imbalances 27 and 28.

Over the past month, the dollar has received numerous blows, including the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks, weak monthly Nonfarm Payrolls reports, a weak annual Nonfarm Payrolls report, a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index, a slowdown in GDP growth, and a decline in market expectations for tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. However, at the most critical moment, with all the cards in their hands, the bulls retreat once again, showing that they are not interested in advancing further.

Do the bears have prospects at present? In my view, very few. As we have already established, the news background does not support the U.S. dollar. However, it should not be forgotten that not everything in the market depends solely on the news background. In the long term, the market has been range-bound for about a year. We have seen three waves to the upside, and everything points to the bulls forming a fifth wave as well. However, over the past year, we have observed an alternation of three-wave structures or similar formations. The liquidity sweep of the swing from May 1 could become a basis for a new bearish leg, which is completely inconsistent with the fundamental backdrop.

Geopolitics is no longer having a favorable effect on the dollar. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have completely become bogged down and are simply not taking place at present. From time to time, Iran and the United States exchange strikes, threats, and ultimatums, which has no effect whatsoever on resolving the conflict and ending the war. At present, no one can predict how much longer the conflict will continue.

Chart analysis shows that the picture changed from bullish to bearish in just a few days based on two highly ambiguous events. Perhaps the European currency will stop the pound's decline, but at present it is the bears who have two imbalances from which positions can be opened. The latest imbalance 27, which was initially bullish and is now an "inverted bearish" imbalance, has already received a market reaction, incidentally. However, yesterday I did not even consider the possibility that the decline would continue. I also believe that the pound's decline could end at any moment if the euro fails to overcome its imbalances.

The economic news background on Wednesday was extremely weak, while the U.S. data released in recent days does not provide a reason for the U.S. dollar's strengthening or the bears' continued attacks.

The overall news background remains such that, in the long term, I cannot expect anything other than a decline in the U.S. dollar. However, this decline once again appears to be postponed for some time. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my long-term expectations. Geopolitics forced the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The prospects for tighter FOMC monetary policy remain ambiguous, while the market itself constantly changes its expectations. Thus, in my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and random in nature. I see no reason for a large-scale advance by the bears.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• European Union — Services Purchasing Managers' Index (08:30 UTC).
• United States — Change in Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
• United States — ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic events calendar for September 3 contains three entries, among which the ISM index stands out. The economic backdrop may affect market sentiment in the second half of the day on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term picture for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings and the formation of a series of buy signals, the bulls may still continue their advance. Unfortunately, the bears have controlled the initiative over the past week, and all the latest bullish patterns have been invalidated. The bears currently have chart-based grounds for an advance. Only the euro currency can save the pound. The liquidity sweep of the swing from May 1 allowed the decline to begin; a sell signal was formed within inverted imbalance 27. How long the pound will continue to fall is difficult to say. Two bullish imbalances on EUR/USD could well stop the decline. On Friday, there will be important U.S. reports on the labor market and unemployment.

The crux of the complaints is simple and arithmetical. We recently reported that Strategy sold roughly 7,000 Bitcoins at prices between $60,000 and $65,000, then resumed purchases at around $80,000. A $15–20k gap per coin means the company effectively missed out on more than a hundred million dollars, and that sequence of actions became the object of market mockery in a space where Michael Saylor's strategy has traditionally been presented as relentless accumulation regardless of price.

Lee framed the defense around the timeliness of each individual trade. "It was the right trade at that point in time to sell Bitcoin to fund part of our dividend," he said, adding, "It is the right trade at the current point in time to sell MSTR at a premium and buy Bitcoin." In other words, the company portrays itself not as a pure holder but as an arbitrageur between its own shares and the cryptocurrency.

Notably, during the roughly ten-week pause Strategy was focused on strengthening the balance sheet. According to Lee, net debt was reduced from about $7 billion to zero, and cash reserves were increased to roughly $7 billion. That is presented as the main justification for the sales: the company exchanged crypto exposure for financial resilience.

Recall that the return to buying was fairly large-scale. Last week, Strategy purchased 4,603 Bitcoins for about $369.7 million at an average price of $80,318, bringing its holdings to 845,050 coins worth roughly $65 billion at current prices.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are now targeting a return to $77,500, which opens a clear path to $79,200. From there, $81,300 is within reach — a breach of which would signal attempts to reclaim a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $75,300. A drop below that zone could quickly push BTC toward $72,800. The most distant target would be around $71,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,443 opens a direct route to $2,504. The furthest target would be the high around $2,557; surpassing that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,373. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,320. The most distant target would be around $2,274.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

Autumn 2026 meets the global economy not with seasonal calm but with a string of unprecedented shocks. The intensifying confrontation between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz has sparked a spike in oil prices, and the fallout is painfully obvious in Europe, where a critical deficit of Qatari gas has emerged on the eve of winter fuel demand.

Against this backdrop of geopolitical fractures and worrying macro signals from the US Treasury about the monetization of debt, investors have poured into "hard" assets en masse. That flow helped drive Bitcoin through key resistance and created a new cohort of crypto millionaires.

At the same time, the tech sector is on the verge of its own revolution: TSMC's ambitious plans to multiply compute capacity for AI promise to create a new class of highly profitable infrastructure assets.

In this briefing, we'll unpack how the intersection of military threats, energy crises, a shift in macroeconomic paradigms and technological breakthroughs is forming a "perfect storm" of volatility — and, with it, major trading opportunities.

Hormuz trap: US strikes on Iran reignite oil market and shift balance of power

Any illusion that the six-month standoff between Washington and Tehran could be contained to economic pressure evaporated with Tuesday's explosions in southern Iran. While diplomats argued over expired memorandums, US Central Command launched a second wave of strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities. The battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its hottest and most unpredictable phase.

The operation, launched at midday Eastern Time, was a direct response to bold IRGC attacks on commercial vessels and US forces in the region. The trigger was a Marisks advisory: just hours earlier, two supertankers attempting to transit the strait had been struck.

Iranian agencies Nour News and Tasnim reported strikes on the port of Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island and Chabahar — part of a scenario that began on Sunday. Then, Washington carried out a preemptive strike on missile systems on Larak Island, disrupting Iran's plans to mine the strait. Tehran retaliated overnight with ballistic missiles and drones targeting US airbases in Jordan (including Muwaffaq Salti) and assets in the UAE. Jordanian air defenses intercepted eight missiles, and Emirati forces shot down a drone.

Amid the explosions, political theater continues. Commenting on Sunday's strikes, Donald Trump called them "very limited," then added in his characteristic tone: "We will hit them hard."

He insists the Strait of Hormuz is "in great shape," noting that the US Navy escorts roughly 30 ships there daily. The shipping statistics, however, tell a different story: actual traffic remains well below pre-war levels.

Voices in Tehran are mixed. Speaking at the SCO summit in Bishkek, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned Iran will "reciprocate" if the US violates the June memorandum. Meanwhile, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that if a US-led naval blockade stops Iran from exporting oil, Iran will use military measures to block all oil shipments through the Persian Gulf.

A reminder is in order: before the war began in late February, about 20% of global crude shipments transited the Strait of Hormuz. The framework agreement painstakingly brokered by Pakistan and Qatar in June has been effectively buried after the 60-day negotiation window lapsed.

Markets reacted to the resumption of hostilities instantly and painfully. Brent crude jumped above $94 per barrel. The ripple effects hit US consumers: the national retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $4.09, roughly $0.90 higher than the same period in 2025 (AAA data).

Behind the macro numbers is a human tragedy. The US has reported 18 military fatalities since the conflict began, while Iran cites thousands of military casualties. Neither Washington nor Tehran is willing to concede control of this strategic waterway, and both the human and economic costs continue to reach historic levels.

While politicians tally human and reputational losses, market professionals calculate opportunity. Periods of global turbulence and sharp commodity moves are not only cause for concern — they create windows of significant opportunity for skilled traders.

Sharp moves in commodity markets, currency swings driven by geopolitical risk, and volatility in equity indices call for robust trading tools. All assets discussed here — crude futures, major FX pairs, and global equity indices — are available for trading on the InstaForex platform.

Grab the chance to profit from global volatility. Open an account on the InstaForex platform today and download the mobile app to stay on top of world markets and execute trades instantly, wherever you are.

Europe hit by gas crisis: Qatar supply shortage pushes prices to new peaks

Autumn is settling in, and with it comes a familiar fear across Europe — an energy shortfall. Natural gas prices continue their steady climb: prolonged disruptions to Qatari supplies amid unusually high demand are forcing European countries to scramble to boost reserves ahead of the heating season.

The benchmark TTF index at the Dutch hub rose by 2.4% on Tuesday, settling at €71.52/MWh, according to The Wall Street Journal. But behind the dry exchange figures lies a tense geopolitical and logistical drama.

The main source of Brussels' concern is the Persian Gulf. Citing an ING report, the Journal says QatarEnergy has been forced to extend force-majeure declarations for several European buyers through early November. LNG shipments from the Gulf have been catastrophically reduced.

The root cause traces back to attacks earlier this year that severely damaged the emirate's export infrastructure. Roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity was knocked out — an outage Reuters estimates has cost Doha about $20 billion in annual revenue. The scale of disruption is striking: by mid?summer, at least 21 LNG carriers scheduled to sail to Europe between April and September were taken off course.

Against this backdrop, the global LNG market has become "particularly vulnerable" heading into winter, ING analysts Warren Patterson and Eva Manthey noted — and their pessimism is well founded. European storage levels are only about 65% of capacity, roughly 12 percentage points below the level a year earlier.

To get through winter without shocks, EU energy regulators warned back in July that Europe must sharply increase LNG imports to hit a strategic storage target of 90% — roughly a 13% rise versus 2025 volumes. The dilemma is obvious: where will that gas come from when traditional supply routes are already strained and alternative sources are limited? For now, that question remains unanswered.

Bitcoin above $80,000: new crypto aristocrats and debasement trade

Last August proved to be a watershed for digital assets. While the general public enjoyed the late?summer heat, a new army of crypto millionaires was quietly forming. The driver wasn't just technical momentum — it was a macroeconomic story set in motion inside the US Treasury.

The ranks of crypto millionaires have been swelling at a speed that must alarm skeptics. According to Finbold analysts using BitInfoCharts data, the number of Bitcoin wallets holding more than $1 million jumped by 10.4% in August alone. The elite club gained 11,636 new addresses, rising from 111,846 at the end of July to 123,482 by August 31.

The top tier felt the change even more: addresses holding more than $10 million increased by 11.24% (from 14,009 to 15,584). To be fair, one person may control multiple wallets for diversification and security, so address counts do not map one-to-one to individual holders. Still, the trend is striking.

The primary catalyst for this accumulation of wealth was the strongest summer rally in nearly two years. In less than two weeks, Bitcoin took off, climbing from just above $60,000 at the start of the month to the coveted $80,000 by month-end, marking a gain of roughly 30%.

So what was the driving force? The answer lies in macro policy. On August 19, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an unprecedented step: the government will at least double its purchases of long-term Treasuries. From September 9 through November 4, operations will rise from $2 billion to $4 billion.

According to Reuters, this was an emergency move to support liquidity in 10–to-30-year Treasuries amid mounting market turbulence. The next day, Bessent signaled the administration might take even more aggressive measures.

Markets read that signal instantly. Traders deployed what is known as the "debasement trade." The logic is straightforward: if the government aggressively expands its balance sheet and effectively monetizes debt, fiat currency purchasing power is likely to erode. Capital therefore flows into hard assets, notably gold and Bitcoin.

That macro shift created ideal conditions for an explosive rally. Once Bitcoin decisively cleared the $70,000 psychological level, the futures market turned brutal for short sellers: leveraged shorts were liquidated on a record ~$4.5 billion wipeout.

Short-seller panic quickly gave way to institutional greed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $2 billion of net inflows across five trading sessions, reinforcing Bitcoin's emerging role as a primary defensive asset in the new macro regime.

AI industrialization: TSMC predicts 50x performance leap and rewrites rules

The era when artificial intelligence was just a collection of algorithms is fading. At SEMICON Taiwan 2026 this week, semiconductor giant TSMC unveiled an ambitious roadmap that promises to reshape our expectations for compute power.

TSMC says that by 2029, its advanced packaging technologies, SoIC and CoWoS, will deliver an extraordinary 50-fold increase in system performance versus 2024 levels. That positions TSMC not merely as a product upgrader but as an architect of what the company calls the "true industrialization of AI."

Speaking at the IC Forum, April Lee, TSMC's head of AI and high-performance computing business development, quoted figures that took industry analysts by surprise.

She said demand for AI compute is rising by roughly 500% year over year. This insatiable appetite from neural networks is putting unprecedented strain on the global semiconductor supply chain.

However, producing ever-more-powerful chips alone will not be enough. Lee outlined a new direction: the future of AI infrastructure is not a race focused on individual chips or models but on deep systems integration. Compute, memory, interconnects, storage, and power management must operate as a single organism, from the die to the server rack and across the whole data center.

According to Lee, in this new era, market leaders will not be those who merely build the best models but those who build the most integrated systems.

The primary driver of this technological boom, she said, is the explosive growth in inference — the run-time process where trained models generate responses. Since 2022, global inference token volumes have jumped almost 500x. Agent-based AI systems exacerbate the trend, consuming multiples more tokens than ordinary user queries.

The industry faces a notable paradox: data movement within systems can account for up to 60% of total activity, leaving expensive AI accelerators underutilized. Under typical workloads, real accelerator utilization often barely exceeds 40%, with the remaining time lost waiting for data to arrive.

TSMC's advanced packaging, enabling tighter, lower-latency integration across chips and modules, aims to solve that bottleneck. Seamless, integrated systems enabled by SoIC and CoWoS will be the key trigger for the next wave of technological evolution.

This race among tech giants is as much a financial marathon as an engineering one. The semiconductor sector and companies providing infrastructure for the AI revolution are forming some of the hottest market trends today.

All related trading instruments tied to this technological expansion are available on the InstaForex platform.

Grab the chance to benefit from the AI industrialization wave: open an account on the InstaForex platform now, download the company's fast and convenient mobile app, and stay on top of the most profitable market moves.

The test of the 159.53 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 159.53 triggered the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for buying the dollar, resulting in a rise of more than 30 points.

The market reacted to Ueda's statements and then returned to its previous trajectory. Ahead of us are the August ADP employment report, changes in factory orders, and the release of the Fed's Beige Book. The ADP report provides an early indication of labor market conditions, and its deviation from forecasts will determine the dollar's direction through expectations for interest rates and US Treasury yields. Factory orders and the regional economic assessment will provide additional information on the state of the economy. For the yen, the outcome of the labor market report is directly relevant, as the currency is particularly sensitive to Fed policy. Strong data could push USD/JPY higher. However, it is also important to keep in mind the intervention factor and the plans for interest rate hikes discussed today by the Governor of the Bank of Japan.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 160.00 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 160.35 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.35, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair today can be expected, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests the 159.79 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 160.00 and 160.35 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 159.79 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.55 level, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests the 160.00 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.79 and 159.55 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3510 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.3510 triggered the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for selling the pound, resulting in a decline of more than 25 points.

At the beginning of the European session, the empty economic calendar for the UK worked in favor of the pound, allowing it to withstand sellers' attempts to push the pair lower. Nevertheless, the calm proved temporary. Next, the market will focus on the ADP employment report, factory orders, and the Fed's Beige Book, with labor market data—and, more specifically, its deviation from forecasts—determining the dollar's subsequent behavior. For GBP/USD, this represents a direct risk, as a strong report will increase demand for the US currency and put the pound under pressure again. A weak result, especially following yesterday's data on the number of new job openings in the United States, will give the British currency a chance to extend the emerging stabilization.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3497 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.3532 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3532, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected following weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests the 1.3477 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3497 and 1.3532 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3477 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3448 level, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong pressure on the pound will return following strong data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests the 1.3497 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3477 and 1.3448 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1577 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The empty economic calendar for the eurozone worked in favor of the single currency, allowing it to withstand selling pressure. For this reason, there was no major sell-off in the pair during the first half of the day. In the absence of news, trading shifted toward dependence on the external market environment, which did not produce any new negative signals. This was precisely why EUR/USD managed to hold its ground and avoid a deeper decline. However, it is still too early to speak of a reversal, as the euro lacks sufficient support for an advance without a weakening of the US currency.

This support may come from the release of US economic data, as the labor market report is likely to set the tone for trading in the second half of the day. August ADP employment data, changes in factory orders, and the Fed's Beige Book will be released. The ADP report is important because it provides an early snapshot of the labor market ahead of the official figures, while a deviation from the forecast traditionally reshapes expectations for the Fed's interest rate and determines the strength of the dollar. For the single currency, the implications are straightforward. Strong employment figures will increase demand for the dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD, while a disappointing result will work in favor of the euro. The Beige Book will provide additional information, as its regional assessments of the economy will help the market refine its view of the regulator's stance.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1580 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.1604 level. At 1.1604, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected following weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.1566 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1580 and 1.1604 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1566 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1543 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if US economic data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests the 1.1580 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1566 and 1.1543 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The decline is continuing amid a new escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. Strikes on Iranian targets and statements in response from Tehran pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel, increasing inflation expectations, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to almost 70%. All of this is discouraging buyers of risk assets from taking more active positions, and cryptocurrencies are no exception.

Market sentiment has clearly shifted to the bearish side. The ratio of buy and sell trading volumes over the past 24 hours has shifted in favor of sellers, with short positions accounting for 51.5% of the flow, according to Coinglass data. Notably, this occurred after several consecutive days of neutral readings, meaning that the shift in sentiment has occurred precisely now. This divergence between rising trading volumes and unchanged open interest is the main feature of the current decline.

However, there is also a positive factor. Despite the decline in Bitcoin's price, there are no signs that traders are actively using leverage to bet on further declines: open interest in Bitcoin futures remains unchanged at around 700,000 BTC, which is significantly below this year's peak of 801,000 BTC. In other words, positioning remains limited, and the decline is driven more by spot selling than by aggressive leveraged positions.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $76,900, with a target of $78,300. Around $78,300, I will close the long positions and immediately look to sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $76,100 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with a return toward $76,900 and $78,300.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $76,100, with a target of $75,300. Around $75,300, I will close the short positions and immediately look to buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $76,900 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with a return toward $76,100 and $75,300.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $2,383, with a target of $2,423. Around $2,423, I will close the long positions and immediately look to sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary at $2,352 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with a return toward $2,383 and $2,423.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $2,352, with a target of $2,305. Around $2,305, I will close the short positions and immediately look to buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary at $2,383 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with a return toward $2,352 and $2,305.

As expected, the lack of important eurozone economic data helped the euro withstand selling pressure. A similar situation occurred with the British pound. All of this suggests that when there is no domestic data available, traders prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Nevertheless, the stability remains fragile, as a renewed demand for the dollar or a deterioration in the external backdrop could put risk assets under pressure.

The market is now awaiting the August ADP employment data from the US, the change in factory orders, and the release of the Federal Reserve's regional economic report, known as the Beige Book. The ADP report is considered an early indicator of labor market conditions and often sets the tone ahead of the official employment data. Factory orders reflect business investment activity, while the Beige Book summarizes assessments of economic conditions across regions and helps show how the Fed views the state of the economy. The extent to which the labor market report differs from forecasts will determine the dollar's subsequent direction.

This poses a direct risk to the euro, the pound, and other risk assets. Strong employment data will strengthen the dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while a weak result will weaken the US currency and give both European pairs some relief. Given that the dollar is already supported by a hawkish stance following Jackson Hole, a strong report would further strengthen its position. Before the data are released, the pair is likely to trade cautiously, while the main volatility is expected around the release of the labor market figures.

If the data are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1583 could lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1606 and 1.1623;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1564 could lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1550 and 1.1534;

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3494 could lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3512 and 1.3531;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3475 could lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3435 and 1.3401;

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 160.13 could lead to a rise in the dollar toward 160.43 and 160.67;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.60 could lead to a decline in the dollar toward 159.39 and 158.83;

Mean Reversion Strategy (return to the level) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.1585, followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.1560, followed by a return to this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.3502, followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.3466, followed by a return to this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 0.7143, followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 0.7114, followed by a return to this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.3945, followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.3922, followed by a return to this level;

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price extended its rise yesterday and set a September high today. After a pullback, it appears ready to resume its upward move amid rising US–Iran tensions.

In the latest developments in the Middle East crisis, US forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps positions in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and actions against US personnel in the region. Iran, in turn, reported large-scale missile and drone strikes on US targets in Jordan and the UAE. This situation highlights risks to commercial shipping in the area and raises supply concerns, which are bullish for oil prices.

The US–Iran tensions underscore the fragility of energy agreements. TD Securities strategists note that the recent escalation is a stark reminder of how tenuous any accords or memoranda of understanding remain. They emphasize that the renewed confrontation exposes vulnerabilities in current arrangements around key energy chokepoints, and even with increased flows through US-backed corridors, the episode keeps the question of a risk premium for energy markets alive.

Additionally, Russia's decision on Sunday to extend its diesel export ban through September 30 has heightened worries about refined product supplies, which also contributes to upward pressure on oil prices. US President Donald Trump meanwhile announced that oil earmarked under a recently announced Venezuela deal will be directed to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That makes the timing and scale of any additional supply from the Venezuela deal uncertain, reinforcing a constructive outlook for oil prices.

Technically, after breaking above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the round $87.00 level, US benchmark WTI crude retains a bullish bias. Returns to those support levels should find buyers on dips. Resistance sits at the round $91.00 level, with the July high acting as a more distant barrier. Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' edge in the market. Therefore, the path of least resistance is upward, and any correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

As the Institute for Supply Management report reported, the ISM manufacturing index fell to 54.6 points in August from 55.6 in July, remaining in expansion territory for the eighth month in a row, and the economy continued to expand for the 22nd consecutive month. At the same time, the JOLTS report showed that the number of job openings in July was essentially unchanged at 7.3 million, while hires and total separations each fell to 5.1 million.

The ISM weakening affected virtually all key components. New orders dropped to 53.7 from 56.7, the backlog of orders to 51.8 from 55.0, employment to 51.2 from 52.8, and imports plunged to 52.5 from 55.7. Production fell only slightly, to 58.3 from 58.5, remaining in expansion for the tenth consecutive month. ISM Chair Susan Spencer noted that of the five subindices that make up the PMI, delivery times were the only one that accelerated, rising to 59.3, which indicates an ongoing easing of supply-chain pressures.

Notably, the price component remained unchanged. The prices index repeated July's value of 71.1, staying deeply in inflationary territory, which is bad news for the Federal Reserve. The only genuinely encouraging signal was the customer inventories index, which rose to 42.8 points from 40.7. Importantly, readings below 50 here are interpreted as inventories being "too low," which is traditionally seen as a positive indicator for future production because customers will sooner or later have to restock.

The labor market data paints a picture of frozen turnover. The report said hires fell to 5.1 million from a revised 5.3 million in June, with the main hit in professional and business services, which lost 188 thousand. Voluntary quits fell to 3.1 million from 3.2 million, and involuntary separations to 1.7 million from 1.8 million. In other words, employers are both hiring less and firing less, which fits the pattern of low hiring alongside low separations.

The dollar's reaction was noteworthy for its absence. The US currency effectively shrugged off the weakness in both reports because market attention had fully shifted to a new escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Recall that the day before, the US struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran responded with similar attacks. Under such conditions, the dollar is supported via two channels: as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical escalation and via the inflation channel, since rising oil strengthens the case for Fed rate hikes. That is why the slowdown in hiring and the weakening of industrial orders were secondary for the currency market.

Meanwhile, the market prices roughly a 60%-chance of a September rate hike after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. This fork in the road will be decisive, and the unchanged ISM prices index at 71.1 points is a reminder that inflationary pressure in the manufacturing chain has not gone away.

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to recover after reaching an almost four-week low earlier on Wednesday, maintaining a moderately negative tone. However, the US dollar continues to strengthen, preventing the precious metal from recovering. Expectations among market participants for a September Fed rate hike are increasing. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices to new highs since July 24, fueling concerns about inflation and reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. This factor, together with geopolitical risks, is weighing on demand for gold.Tensions between the US and Iran have risen again following a US strike on Iranian missile installations near Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. This was the first US strike since late July and triggered an Iranian counteroffensive targeting US-linked facilities in the region. In addition, US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that US forces had also carried out strikes against targets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In response, Iran escalated the confrontation and launched large-scale ballistic missile and drone attacks against US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. This creates an additional geopolitical risk that supports oil prices and strengthens the dollar as a safe-haven asset.Meanwhile, investors are concerned that high energy prices could once again exacerbate inflationary pressures, forcing major central banks, including the Fed, to adopt a more hawkish stance. Recent comments by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium should also be taken into account, as they are fueling expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. Adding concerns over government debt to the picture, the global bond sell-off is deepening, pushing the yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds to its highest level since January 2025. This is also viewed as a factor contributing to capital outflows from the precious metal and supporting the likelihood of a further decline in its value in the near term.

Societe Generale interest-rate strategists warn that the recent sell-off leaves the US Treasury yield curve vulnerable to further increases in long-term yields. According to them, "at the current pace, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries could reach 5%." They view this as confirmation that the bearish trend is continuing, as investors are increasingly considering how much additional term premium the market will require, while expectations regarding Fed policy remain tilted toward further tightening.

For better trading opportunities, traders may wait for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. These labor market figures will provide additional signals regarding the future outlook for Fed monetary policy, which, in turn, will affect the dollar and provide fresh momentum for the precious metal.

Nevertheless, the current fundamental situation appears to favor bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the downside. In this regard, any attempts at a recovery are more likely to be viewed as selling opportunities and carry the risk of a rapid decline.

From a technical perspective, gold has found support at the 200-day EMA, just above the round $4,300 level. A break below this level would be viewed as a new trigger for the bears. The next support is likely to be around $4,220. Upside resistance is provided by the 100-day SMA near $4,360. At the same time, the oscillators are mixed, so it can be said that gold is not ready to give up. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into negative territory, indicating weakness among the bulls.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bullish. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. However, the FOMC's stance, which remains highly contradictory, is currently more important for the dollar.

The fundamental background on Tuesday was once again ambiguous. The bears dominated for most of the day, allowing us to draw several conclusions and assumptions. First, the market is not expecting the ECB to tighten monetary policy. Yesterday, it became known that inflation in the European Union had increased to 3.3% year-on-year, bringing the ECB noticeably closer to a second policy tightening. However, instead of a rise in the euro, we saw another decline. Second, the market is not afraid of weak US economic data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in below traders' expectations, while the number of job openings in July was also below forecasts. Nevertheless, the dollar continued to rise throughout the day. Thus, in my view, the market has once again shifted its attention to the Fed and geopolitics. A storm is once again brewing in the Middle East, as Tehran and Washington have resumed strikes. The oil market has already responded with another rise, which means that inflation will increase everywhere in August and September. In addition, the escalation of the conflict threatens to create new energy problems for the entire world. I would also note that traders still expect the FOMC to tighten monetary policy in September, although I have doubts about this. Nevertheless, the dollar is benefiting from the current situation.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline and has consolidated below the ascending trend channel. A new rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1588 would allow for a modest rise in the euro, while consolidation below 1.1588 would suggest a continuation of the decline toward the next retracement level of 38.2% at 1.1526. No developing divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Over the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,678 Long positions and closed 20,058 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the last twenty-two weeks, the situation has evened out against the backdrop of the supposed ceasefire and the market's hopes that the war would end. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 235,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is rapidly narrowing.

Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Certainly, events of various kinds around the world, of which there has been no shortage in recent years, influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• United States – ADP employment change (12:00–15:00 UTC).

On September 2, the economic events calendar contains only one release, which I do not consider important. The impact of the fundamental background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be extremely weak or nonexistent.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Buying the pair today is possible if it rebounds from 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. Selling opportunities arose after a rebound from 1.1700 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. These trades can be kept open today.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.