The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart has changed. There is still no indication of a cancellation of the upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), which began in January of last year, but the wave structure itself now looks quite ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on simpler, smaller wave structures in order to make short-term forecasts—which is usually sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be highly complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The simplest approach is to trade based on standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, a classic five-wave impulse structure can be identified, with an extended third wave. If this interpretation is correct, then this structure has already been completed, and a corrective sequence of at least three waves is currently forming. Therefore, in the near term, some upward movement can be expected—but within a correction relative to the most recent trend segment. At the moment, recent wave formations do not align well with the higher-level structure, but the situation should become clearer over time. The euro's recovery may end near the 1.1824 level.

The EUR/USD pair once again showed very low volatility on Thursday due to the absence of important news. The only notable event was the final estimate of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, which differed little from the preliminary reading. Inflation in the EU accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year in March, while core inflation slowed to 2.3%. The increase in headline inflation over the month amounted to 0.7%. That was essentially the only notable data point of the day.

However, there are less significant but potentially impactful developments. Today, Donald Trump announced that the leaders of Lebanon and Israel will hold their first talks in 34 years on Friday. This means the conflict in the Middle East could ease slightly in the coming days. It is worth noting that more than 10 countries are currently involved in the conflict, but even if just two reach a ceasefire, it would represent continued movement toward a broader resolution. Trump would also add another item to his "list of ended wars." Incidentally, the conflict with Iran—which Trump himself initiated—may also come to an end, adding yet another entry. At this pace, by the end of his presidential term, Donald Trump could potentially bring several conflicts around the world to a close.

Based on the wave analysis, I would suggest that a decline in the pair may begin today or tomorrow—or may have already started. The failed attempt to break above the 1.1824 level indirectly supports this view. The corrective a–b–c wave structure appears complete. However, the duration and strength of any euro decline will depend heavily on geopolitical developments.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis, EUR/USD remains within an upward trend segment (on the higher timeframe), while in the short term it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave sequence appears complete and would only become more complex and extended if a stable ceasefire is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and all other parties in the Middle East. Otherwise, a new downward wave structure could begin from current levels—or at least a corrective decline, even if geopolitics continue to improve and the current trend segment evolves into a new impulse.

On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is somewhat unconventional, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. Such situations do occur. It is important to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than trying to rigidly label every wave. In the near future, the trend may reverse.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If you are uncertain about market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction is impossible—always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

As mentioned in previous analyses, an important and relatively rare "Three Drives Pattern" was formed, which initiated the current upward move. Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, while the trend remained bullish throughout. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile, and the parties involved have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Talks may resume this week, which is a positive factor. The Strait of Hormuz is under dual blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could potentially face similar restrictions, which is a negative factor. However, as of Thursday, the overall situation remains unchanged. The Middle East situation could deteriorate further—or continue moving toward de-escalation.

The probability of a decline in both pairs still exists. At the same time, the "Three Drives Pattern" (marked by a triangle on the chart) allowed bulls to take control, which is already a strong positive factor. Yesterday, a second reaction to imbalance 16 was observed, but second reactions are usually weaker than the first. The pair also swept liquidity above the February 26 high, and together these two factors may trigger a corrective pullback. From below, the only notable bullish pattern is imbalance 18, which has already produced a reaction. A new imbalance 19 has also formed, which may generate a new buy signal today or tomorrow. The current bullish pause may be very brief—especially if news emerges about renewed negotiations and progress between Iranian and US delegations.

The economic news on Thursday allowed bulls to continue their advance, as UK GDP data for February came in stronger than expected, and industrial production also exceeded forecasts. However, two technical bearish signals led to a corrective pullback. Once again, traders chose to largely ignore the economic data.

In the United States, the overall information backdrop suggests that, in the long term, little can be expected other than a decline in the dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the US does little to change this. The long-term outlook for the dollar remains challenging: the US labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving closer to recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, a fourth major wave of protests against Donald Trump has taken place across the country. From an economic standpoint, there appear to be no strong reasons for dollar appreciation.

A sustained bearish trend in GBP/USD would require a strong and stable positive backdrop for the US dollar—something that is difficult to expect under the current circumstances. Geopolitics supported the dollar for two months, but this support is now fading. While it cannot be ruled out that the dollar may strengthen again due to geopolitical factors, there are currently no clear reasons to expect this.

News Calendar for the US and UK:

On April 17, the economic calendar contains no events. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth, followed by a bullish imbalance and a confirmed buy signal. Price has swept liquidity from bullish swings on March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, but bears have still not taken control—another positive factor for the pound.

Given the current conditions, despite geopolitical uncertainty, I believe the upward movement will continue. The euro is also likely to continue rising. The target for the pound is the 2026 high. A reaction to imbalance 16 may cause a corrective pullback, while reactions to imbalances 18 and 19 could provide new buying opportunities.

Last week, a reaction was observed at bullish imbalance 12, which triggered the current bullish advance. Thus, traders had the opportunity to open long positions, which are now showing strong profits. The geopolitical backdrop has become more favorable compared to two weeks ago, which likely explains the sharp improvement in bullish sentiment. However, in my view, several factors played a role. First, the market could not continue fleeing risk indefinitely by buying dollars. Risk is not a permanent condition, and capital can be reallocated into safe assets fairly quickly. Second, there was a technical buy signal. Third, Donald Trump softened his rhetoric regarding the Middle East conflict. Previously, he issued threats toward Iran, but now he is speaking primarily about negotiations and agreements.

All of the US dollar's growth over the past one and a half to two months has been driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately retreated and bulls moved aggressively into the market. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile but intact, despite the failure of talks in Islamabad last Saturday. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the break of key structural lows. The price action of the past two months could evolve into a bearish trend if geopolitics deteriorates further—but how much worse can it realistically get? Most of the worst-case scenarios have already occurred. Markets often price in the most pessimistic outlook in advance, attempting to anticipate the worst. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

The technical picture has now become clearer. First, price showed no reaction to imbalance 11, meaning no sell signal was formed. Second, price reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which represents a zone of interest for future long positions and serves as a support area for the euro.

There was virtually no news flow on Thursday. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index rose to 2.6% in March, slightly above expectations, but traders had already anticipated strong inflation growth. The exact increase in inflation during the first month of the Middle East conflict is not particularly important. What matters now are the ECB's next steps, and Christine Lagarde did not clarify the outlook for monetary policy earlier this week.

There remain many reasons for bulls to stay active in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which contributed to a significant weakening of the dollar last year—have not changed. In the short term, the US dollar may still rise due to risk aversion, but this would require ongoing escalation in the Middle East, which is not sustainable. Just one week of pause allowed the euro to recover nearly 300 points. Meanwhile, the dollar lacks other strong supporting factors. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will drive bears in the long term?

News Calendar for the US and Eurozone:

On April 17, the economic calendar contains no significant events. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the formation stage of a bullish trend. The news backdrop shifted sharply two months ago, but the overall trend cannot yet be considered canceled or complete. Therefore, bulls may continue their advance in the near term—unless geopolitics suddenly turns toward renewed escalation.

Bulls previously had opportunities to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, targeting around the 1.1670 level. This target has long been reached, and the upward movement may continue toward this year's highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which may generate another bullish signal in the future. For uninterrupted growth of the euro, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward a lasting peace—something that is not currently evident. However, bears are not gaining additional reasons to attack either. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis.

After 47 days, the EUR/USD pair finally closed the gap left on February 27, demonstrating that technical analysis also has targets to be met. From the 1.14 level, a new upward move began, reaching a high around 1.1827.

The euro had left a gap in February around 1.1813, which was completely filled yesterday during the US session. A technical correction is now expected toward the lower band of the uptrend channel located at 1.1645.

If the euro finds solid support above the 21 SMA at 1.1778, this area could present a buying opportunity with targets at the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840.

Given that the Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels, should a pullback occur toward the 5/8 Murray level, this could be considered an opportunity to open short positions, with targets at the 4/8 Murray level at 1.1718 and finally at the lower band of the uptrend channel.

Technically, the euro could consolidate below 1.1840 over the next few days. Therefore, we will look for signals to continue selling EUR/USD as there is strong downward pressure.

The XAU/USD pair is trading around $4,818 following a consolidation above the 200 EMA, showing a positive signal. The chart above shows signs of exhaustion, suggesting that gold is expected to face downward pressure in the coming days.

Gold has made every effort to consolidate above the 200 EMA, rebounding several times above this zone. However, the bullish momentum was unable to push gold toward the two expected levels of $4,890 and even $5,000.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold has reached its early April high around $4,860. Since then, we have seen a technical correction, so the instrument is likely to face downward pressure in the coming days. If this scenario plays out, XAU is expected to reach the 200 EMA around $4,778, but if there is a break below the 7/8 Murray line, it could continue to fall.

A technical rebound in gold above the 200 EMA, the 21 SMA, and the lower band of the uptrend channel—which converge around $4,778—could be a good entry point for long positions with targets at $5,000.

Conversely, a sharp drop below the 200 EMA and a decisive break of the uptrend channel could signal a trend reversal, and gold could quickly sink to $4,687, and even down the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375.

Bitcoin is trading around $74,700, below the 4/8 Murray line, and above the 21 SMA, showing consolidation after encountering a strong resistance zone.

Bitcoin could continue to rise in the coming days if it reaches the 21 SMA around $73,950. If a technical bounce occurs in this zone, it could provide a strong upward momentum and reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around $77,340.

If the technical correction continues, Bitcoin is expected to find strong support around the lower band of the bullish trend channel at $73,000. This zone could provide a strong boost for Bitcoin, potentially driving it to $75,000 and possibly even $78,000.

Given that the Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels, Bitcoin is expected to continue trading within a range in the coming days. Below $75,000, there could be strong downward pressure.

Conversely, above $75,000, Bitcoin could attempt to continue rising and is expected to reach the weekly high of $76,113 and, ultimately, the strong monthly resistance at $77,300.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $2,340 above the 21-day SMA and showing signs of waning bullish momentum. After three failed attempts to break above the $2,400 level, Ethereum is undergoing a technical correction and could find solid support around $2,300.

If bearish momentum prevails and Ethereum consolidates below the 21 SMA, we could expect it to continue its downtrend and undergo a technical correction until finding support around the lower band of the uptrend channel at $2,220.

A technical rebound around the lower band of the uptrend channel could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions. The price will reach the psychological level of $2,500 around the 4/8 Murray line in the coming days.

Only a decisive break below the bullish trend channel and a consolidation below the 3/8 Murray line—and in turn below the 200 EMA at $2,169—could signal a shift in the ETH/USD trend, potentially entering a bearish phase that could drive prices down toward the 2/8 Murray line at $1,875.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing overbought signals, we could expect a technical correction toward $2,200 to open long positions. Otherwise, we could look for opportunities to open short positions from current price levels below $2,400.

According to the Associated Press, both sides have reached a principled agreement to continue diplomatic consultations. This became possible after the first, but inconclusive, round of talks held in Pakistan last weekend. Mediators are actively working to find compromise solutions on key issues such as the status of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program, with the aim of reaching an agreement before the current truce expires, scheduled for April 7.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the likelihood of renewed hostilities is falling. He said that the conflict, which has lasted nearly seven weeks, is in its closing stage, reinforcing market expectations for a possible de-escalation. Iran's foreign ministry said that a Pakistani delegation will visit Tehran on Wednesday and that Islamabad will continue to act as an intermediary in communications between the two sides.

Nevertheless, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important route for global energy supplies, remains extremely tense. The United States has imposed a naval blockade, effectively halting Iranian oil exports, while Tehran, in turn, is blocking the strait for other vessels. Such mutual escalation creates serious risks for global energy security.

Ali Abdollahi, commander of Iran's joint military staff, said that Iran viewed the extension of the American blockade as a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire. He warned that, if the blockade persists, Iran's armed forces will take retaliatory measures that could include a complete halt of exports and imports through ports in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Red Sea. Such actions would not only exacerbate geopolitical tensions but could also trigger a sharp rise in oil prices, with a significant impact on the global economy.

Oil prices remain elevated, although on Wednesday Brent fell below $95 a barrel. That is roughly 33 percent higher than before the start of the war.

It is worth noting that, since the announcement of the truce on April 7, hostilities in the Middle East have largely ceased. The exception is Lebanon, where Israel continues to exchange fire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah. On Wednesday Israel's state broadcaster reported that talks on a possible ceasefire are underway, but no decision has been made. This, too, has supported demand for risk assets, including on the currency market, weakening the US dollar.

As for the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1820 level. Only that will allow a target test of 1.1840. From there it is possible to reach 1.1866, but doing so without support from major players will be rather difficult. The furthest target will be the high at 1.1880. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1780. If no one appears there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1757 or to open long positions from 1.1725.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3585. Only that will allow a target of 1.3610, above which further breakout will be rather problematic. The most distant target will be the 1.3635 area. In the event of a drop, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3545. If they succeed, a breakdown of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward the low of 1.3510, with a prospect of reaching 1.3480.

Yesterday, US stock indices closed higher in confidence: the S&P 500 gained 0.80%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.59%, while the Dow Jones, by contrast, slipped 0.15%. Markets are in an upbeat mood — investors are actively buying stocks as hopes for a possible settlement between the US and Iran have reduced the "risk premium" and supported demand.

The global MSCI All Country World index stood out, rising 0.3% to a fresh high and extending a 10?day rally. Strong corporate earnings from the US provided an extra boost — robust results from major companies reinforced investor confidence and helped the market to keep rising. More details via the link.

For S&P 500 bulls, the key levels are 7,049 and 7,087; on a pullback, important support sits around 7,033 and 6,993.

The US and Iran are discussing extending the current ceasefire, which expires next Tuesday, for another two weeks to give both sides more time to negotiate a peace deal. At the same time, Donald Trump said leaders of Israel and Lebanon will also hold talks. Against this backdrop, Asian equity indices are rising again as investors rotate attention from geopolitics to corporate results and profitability.

Technically, for the S&P 500, the buyers' main task today is to break the nearest resistance at 7,049. A successful hold above that would allow a move to 7,066 and then strengthen bids toward 7,087. If risk appetite wanes and prices fall, the key line for bulls is 7,033. With further weakening, a pullback to 7,013 could follow, opening the way to 6,993. More details via the link.

Market confidence is clearly evident despite geopolitical risks

US stock indices are outperforming many global peers: the United States is far from the Middle East hotspots, and its economy is less dependent on the "oil needle" than some Asian and European countries. Competition for energy resources helps the US boost exports and generate additional profits.

The S&P 500 rally is particularly striking: the index has declined no more than 10% from January highs — a behavior not seen in previous market downturns. A similar pattern was last visible in March 2000, just before the dot-com bubble burst. Investors are currently not reacting strongly to geopolitics or the threat of stagflation. Apparently, the market is once again betting on the resilience of the US economy. More details via the link.

Such trader indecision is quite understandable and justified. Both EUR/USD buyers and sellers are reluctant to open large positions amid an uncertain geopolitical backdrop. The economic calendar for the current week is practically empty for EUR/USD; therefore, all attention is fixed on geopolitics. However, here the picture is highly contradictory as well: the scales can tilt at any moment either toward a de-escalation scenario or toward further escalation.

So, according to the latest information, a second round of talks between the United States and Iran could take place in the coming days. According to several sources, a new meeting of delegations from the two countries will be held at the end of the current week or at the beginning of the next. In anticipation of this event, influential media outlets are publishing their insiders, which are, for the most part, encouraging.

For example, high-level sources cited by Axios report that negotiators have made significant progress and have moved closer to a framework agreement to end the war. According to unnamed White House officials, mediators from Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are trying to bridge remaining differences to reach an agreement before the temporary truce expires. The two-week truce expires on April 21. However, Bloomberg reports that Washington and Tehran are considering extending it for another two weeks to allow more time for negotiations.

Incidentally, Donald Trump yesterday said that something very important may happen in the coming days, after which the need to extend the temporary truce would disappear.

In addition, Reuters reports that Iran may allow vessels to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side — but only if an agreement is reached with the United States that prevents a resumption of the conflict. That is, if the second round of talks is successfully concluded.

But despite the overt and covert diplomatic process, the United States is simultaneously increasing its military presence and tightening the economic blockade of Iran.

As The Washington Post writes, the United States is sending more than 10,000 troops to the Middle East as part of two carrier strike groups. In particular, 6,000 service members are aboard the USS George H.W. Bush, which is currently heading to the region. After its arrival, US command will have three aircraft carriers in the area simultaneously (the USS Gerald R. Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln are already in the region).

Obviously, this is a form of pressure — part of the US negotiation strategy. Washington is showing that, in the absence of an agreement by the end of the two-week truce, it could move to a forceful scenario. Specifically, this could involve strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure or an attempt to seize Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran's oil exports transit.

At the same time, unconfirmed reports have appeared in the media that Iran is not wasting time either—allegedly, Iranian forces are regrouping missile assets and strengthening defensive positions in parallel with the talks.

However, it is worth noting that to date Iran's reaction to the maritime blockade of its ports has remained restrained and predominantly verbal. De facto, the parties are observing the truce, holding out hope for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict. Figuratively speaking, the parties have adopted a wait-and-see posture, while keeping powder dry in case of a possible escalation.

EUR/USD traders are adopting a wait-and-see stance as well, avoiding large positions either for or against the dollar. The pair has settled into a drift at the borders of the 1.18 figure, awaiting further events that are expected imminently. Suppose the parties officially agree on a date for the second round of talks; buyers will again attempt to secure a foothold within the 1.18 figure. Conversely, as the truce expiry date approaches (in the absence of signals about talks or its extension), the dollar will likely strengthen, exerting pressure on EUR/USD.

Under such fundamentally driven uncertainty, it is rather difficult to make trading decisions since the scales can tip at any moment either toward further escalation or toward de-escalation. In my view, at present, it is reasonable to consider longs on southern pullbacks in the pair, but strictly on a short-term horizon—with a target of 1.1800 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on D1).

According to CryptoQuant data, there has been a significant inflow of bitcoins to exchanges, which may signal holders' readiness to realize short-term gains. This spike in activity could indicate an intention to sell part of their holdings in response to the recent price rise. The market is currently in a state of uncertainty as participants assess the outlook.

Prominent crypto specialist Arthur Hayes also believes that a substantial Bitcoin rally is unlikely in the near term. In his view, the key factor for a new wave of buying would be an aggressive cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Only the start of large-scale liquidity injections into the financial system, Hayes argues, would justify speaking of a significant upward move in BTC. Under the current monetary policy, Bitcoin will likely remain under pressure or display limited volatility.

Traders analyzing ETF flows, market sentiment and macroeconomic factors face difficulties because the data are highly mixed and contradictory. However, only a change in the Fed's rhetoric or actions can materially shift the balance toward renewed crypto buying strong enough to form a sustainable uptrend.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $75,000, which would open a direct path to $76,500 and then $78,400. The farther target is the high near $80,100; a break above that would signal attempts to return to a bull market. On a pullback, I expect buyers to step in at $73,100. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400, with a further target around $69,800.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,410 would open a direct path to $2,499. The farther target is the high near $2,585; a break above that would strengthen bullish sentiment and revive buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers to step in at $2,308. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,244, with a further target around $2,162.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The test of the 158.98 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

After a notable decline during the Asian session, demand for the US dollar against the yen returned, even leading to a new daily high. Ahead, the economic calendar is packed with US statistical reports.

The flow of data will begin with initial jobless claims. It will conclude with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and data on changes in industrial production. A speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member John Williams is also expected. These macroeconomic indicators, released sequentially, will provide a comprehensive picture of the state of the US economy at the beginning of spring 2026. The upcoming data will be closely analyzed by market participants, especially in the context of future Federal Reserve monetary policy. Deviations from forecasts—whether positive or negative—may trigger increased volatility in the currency market and influence investor expectations regarding the future path of interest rates.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.25 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.45 (thicker green line). Around 159.45, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points). Growth of the pair today can be expected if the data is strong.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.02 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 159.25 and 159.45 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below 159.02 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.81, where I plan to exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if the data is weak.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.25 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.02 and 158.81 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – use overbought and oversold zones when making trading decisions

Important Note for Beginners: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1796 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which in such a bullish market clearly limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

At first glance, news that the Eurozone's Consumer Price Index rose to 2.6% year-over-year in March should have triggered euro buying, but this did not happen. Although the data shows rising inflation, it remains within the expectations of European Central Bank economists and does not raise concerns about economic overheating. On the contrary, the current level of inflation is seen as moderate, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand rather than structural problems.

Next, fresh data on initial jobless claims is expected. This weekly indicator is one of the most timely ways to assess labor market conditions. A decline in claims usually signals strengthening and lower unemployment. Then, focus will shift to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which includes components such as new orders, employment levels, and supply chains. At the same time, data on industrial production will be released. Growth in this indicator would likely support the US dollar against the euro.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1783 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1804. At 1.1804, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. Euro growth today should only be expected after very weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1765 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1783 and 1.1804 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1765 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1742. At this level, I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today in the case of strong data.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1783 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1765 and 1.1742 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Despite the fact that the Eurozone's Consumer Price Index rose to 2.6% year-over-year in March, the euro declined against the US dollar in the absence of positive news from the Middle East. This came as something of a surprise to many market participants, who had expected more confident performance from the European currency on the back of the inflation data.

The British pound also surprisingly ignored strong UK GDP data, indicating a complete lack of enthusiasm among buyers of risk assets, who were apparently expecting more positive progress in resolving the US-Iran conflict.

Ahead, we have a packed block of US macroeconomic data, which will provide a detailed overview of the state of the American economy. The data release sequence will begin with initial jobless claims, a weekly indicator that is one of the most timely measures of labor market conditions. A decline in claims typically signals a strengthening labor market and falling unemployment, while an increase may indicate the opposite.

Next, attention will turn to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. This index reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector of one of the key industrial regions in the US and serves as an important barometer of manufacturing conditions. At the same time, data on US industrial production will be released, providing insight into the dynamics of output in the manufacturing sector—one of the key indicators of the overall health of the economy.

In addition to the data, one of the key events will be a speech by FOMC member John Williams. Given his significant role in shaping Federal Reserve monetary policy, his comments on the current economic situation, inflation expectations, and the outlook for interest rates will be closely analyzed.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1790 may lead to a rise toward 1.1825 and 1.1850;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1750 may lead to a decline toward 1.1735 and 1.1680.

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3550 may lead to a rise toward 1.3585 and 1.3615;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3515 may lead to a decline toward 1.3480 and 1.3450.

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.13 may lead to a rise toward 159.40 and 159.84;
• Selling on a breakout below 158.85 may lead to a decline toward 158.57 and 158.25.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1802 and a return below this level;
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1765 and a return to this level.

For GBP/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3565 and a return below this level;
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3519 and a return to this level.

For AUD/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7187 and a return below this level;
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7157 and a return to this level.

For USD/CAD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3744 and a return below this level;
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3715 and a return to this level.

On Thursday during Asian trading, oil prices slipped slightly as investors weighed the likelihood of further US?Iran peace talks before the temporary ceasefire expires next week. Caution also remained ahead of key Chinese economic growth data, with China the world's largest oil importer.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 0.4% to $90.90 a barrel at 03:42 (23:42 GMT). Price moves were set against a backdrop of nervousness about potential disruptions to logistics and supply related to the war around Iran.

Earlier this week, oil had posted sharp losses after US officials again raised the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough following fruitless talks over the weekend. US President Donald Trump said talks could begin in the coming days and that the end of the war is "close."

At the same time, Washington indicated it has effectively imposed a full naval blockade on Iran, a measure that could complicate negotiations and raise risks to maritime infrastructure in the region.

Traders are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint for oil and gas shipments. Reports said some vessels and oil tankers have transited the Strait this week. Reuters also reported that Iran might consider allowing vessels to pass freely on the Omani side of Hormuz without threat of attack as part of a future peace deal.

Although the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran reportedly held into Thursday (with no new strike reports since late last week), it is set to expire on April 21.

Separately, reports on Wednesday suggested the US plans to deploy more than 10,000 additional service members to the region — stoking fears of further escalation.

Since the start of the Iran conflict, oil briefly rose to $120 a barrel, but that rally has struggled to hold. Pressure has come from large releases of crude from strategic reserves in major economies. Warnings from the IEA and OPEC about weaker demand due to disruptions tied to the Iran conflict have added to the negative backdrop.

A critical market issue remains Washington's stance on any ceasefire deal: the US insists on full reopening of transit routes as part of an agreement.

For traders, this means that even if rhetoric about talks continues, actual price dynamics will hinge on any signals about the status of Hormuz and conditions for vessel access, as well as upcoming Chinese macro releases.

During Asian trading on Thursday, gold prices extended their gains. The market was supported by a persistently weak dollar, while investors assessed the likelihood of US-Iran ceasefire talks. Against this backdrop, precious metals look noticeably stronger than the broader market, and traders remain glued to any geopolitical headlines.

Gold is trading near a nearly one-month high reached on Wednesday. The rally is being driven by several factors: increased risk appetite and easing concerns about persistent inflation. With reduced demand for safe-haven assets, the dollar has lost support, traditionally positive for gold.

Gold dynamics:

• XAU/USD rose 0.9% to $4,835.09 per ounce.
• Gold futures climbed 0.7% to $4,857.05 per ounce at 09:21 (05:21 GMT).

Gold is advancing amid a ninth straight session of dollar weakness. Pressure on the US currency was reinforced by weak producer inflation data released earlier in the week. For gold traders, this matters: as long as the US dollar remains under pressure, there is scope for further support for XAU/USD.

Expectations for gold are also influenced by news from the Middle East. US President Donald Trump has said extended talks with Iran could happen in the coming days and that the end of the war is "close." He also noted separate talks between Israel and Lebanon scheduled for Thursday in Washington.

At the same time, Trump's comments came alongside reports that the US is sending thousands of additional service members to Iran and that a naval blockade of the country came into full effect this week. Nonetheless, the market's immediate reaction suggests the ceasefire appears to be holding.

Key point for traders: markets are awaiting follow-up peace talks, especially given that the ceasefire is set to expire on April 21. Any signs of an extension or a breakdown in the agreement could quickly change demand dynamics for gold and the dollar.

Other precious metals also rose on the broadly positive tone:

• Spot silver gained 2.4% to $80.8165 per ounce;
• Spot platinum climbed 1.6% to $2,147.21 per ounce.

Both instruments remain near monthly highs, reinforcing the signal that demand for metals is supported by broader shifts in market sentiment rather than a single factor.

Copper rises on hopes of a China boost

Among industrial metals, copper stood out on Thursday after China's GDP data beat expectations. The market welcomed the stronger-than-expected reading from the world's key copper importer.

Market moves:

• LME copper futures rose 0.5% to $13,350.33 per tonne;
• COMEX copper futures gained 0.8% to $6.1250 per pound.

China GDP: 5% growth in Q1

China's economy grew 5% in the first quarter, driven mainly by exports: foreign demand for Chinese industrial goods remained strong. That support is expected to continue in coming quarters, which could sustain robust copper demand.

Still, Iran poses risks.

Despite the positive data, risks linger. China's economy could face headwinds from the Iran conflict: higher fuel costs may weigh on already subdued domestic spending, and disruptions to global shipping could hurt export demand.

For copper traders, this means gains may remain volatile: positive macro data supports prices, but geopolitical risks continue to influence trade and logistics expectations.

This resolution opens the door for banks to open accounts for crypto firms, but only after thorough verification and confirmation of their licenses. The move is seen as a significant impulse toward legalization of the crypto market in Pakistan, although it imposes certain restrictions. Despite the easing of regulatory barriers, banks remain categorically prohibited from investing in cryptocurrencies or holding them on their balance sheets. This means that, although cooperation with crypto businesses has become possible, direct involvement in owning crypto assets remains off limits.

The decision by the State Bank of Pakistan is, without question, a key moment for the development of the cryptocurrency industry in the country. Enabling banks to service licensed crypto firms creates the necessary infrastructure for their legitimate activity. This will not only simplify operational processes for the companies themselves, but will also increase trust among clients, who will now be able to conduct transactions through more regulated and secure channels. In turn, this may attract more domestic and foreign investment into Pakistan's crypto sector.

Against this backdrop, rumors have emerged about Pakistan potentially creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve. If these rumors are confirmed, this could indicate far deeper government intentions regarding digital assets, going beyond simple cooperation between banks and licensed crypto companies. This could potentially signal a desire by the country to integrate Bitcoin into its financial strategies at a higher level.

Such a strategy, if implemented, could substantially raise Pakistan's standing in the eyes of the international community, demonstrating a readiness for innovation and integration of new technologies. It would be a signal to other countries that are still considering digital asset regulation, showing that bold steps can be justified.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,600, which opens a direct road to $78,400, and from there $80,100 is within reach. The most distant target is the high near $83,100, a breach of which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at $74,600. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $73,000. The furthest downside target would be the $71,400 area.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,410 opens a direct road to $2,499. The most distant target is the high near $2,585, a breach of which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In the event of an Ether decline, I expect buyers at $2,308. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,244. The furthest downside target would be the $2,162 area.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, gold remains just below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), around the $4,817 level. Oscillators are positive, indicating a steady bullish bias, although the price has not yet overcome this structural barrier. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained move and consolidation above the 200-period SMA before taking positions for further upside.

On the other hand, the first support level is located at the round $4,800 mark. Additional demand is expected near the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), followed by the 50-period SMA. Below these levels, prices could decline toward the round $4,700 level.

The Australian dollar rallies sharply and hits multi-year highs amid a notable return of investor risk appetite. According to Bloomberg, the currency's advance has become one of the key indicators of an overall improvement in sentiment across global markets. Optimism is linked to hopes that the temporary truce between the United States and Iran could evolve into a more durable agreement.

The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar to $0.72 — a level not seen since June 2022. Particularly striking was the breakout against the Japanese yen: the cross reached 114.15 yen, the highest since September 1990.

In parallel with the currency rally, stock indices have climbed. Against this backdrop, investors are increasingly pricing in a scenario of imminent de-escalation in the Middle East, which supports demand for risk assets.

In the United States, the sentiment gauge, the S&P 500 index, continues to mark fresh all-time highs. Market participants are betting that an improving geopolitical backdrop will reduce the risk premium, which typically supports currencies with higher yield characteristics, among them the Australian dollar.

Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that the broad strengthening of the Australian dollar reflected a sharp improvement in investors' risk appetite, and she added that the rise could continue for a while as long as optimism endured; however, she said she doubted the euphoria would be long-lived and warned that the risk of talks collapsing remained critically high.

What traders should watch: AUD dynamics and reversal risks

In April, the Australian dollar has gained more than 4% versus the US dollar and has been the top performer among G10 currencies. For a trader, this signals a pronounced risk-on move and strong demand for AUD. However, Kong's comment highlights the scenario's vulnerability: the probability of a negative outcome in negotiations remains, and that could rapidly shift market expectations.

Yen as the counterbet: tightening expectations were not supported.

At the other pole is the Japanese yen. The market has effectively revised down expectations for the timing and pace of interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan: after a series of very cautious and dovish remarks by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, investors have been disappointed in the prospects for a rapid policy tightening. This has exacerbated yen weakness, accelerating the AUD/JPY cross to 114.15.

Gold (XAU/USD) is giving back part of its modest intraday gains but maintains a positive bias, holding above the $4,800 level.

Despite hopes for diplomatic progress from Tehran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to support demand for the US dollar, which remains a key factor limiting further upside in the precious metal. Following the conclusion of talks in Islamabad last Saturday, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports has come fully into force. In response, the head of Iran's Joint Military Command stated that the country is prepared to halt trade activity in the Persian Gulf region if Washington does not lift the restrictions. Additionally, Tehran demanded a halt to Israeli strikes on Lebanon as a precondition for continuing negotiations with the United States. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled that he does not intend to declare a ceasefire and has instructed the Israel Defense Forces to tighten control over the security zone. These developments are maintaining elevated geopolitical tensions, reinforcing the US dollar's safe-haven status while simultaneously limiting the upside potential of gold prices.

At the same time, expectations of a diplomatic resolution are having a moderately positive impact on market sentiment, supporting risk appetite and keeping oil prices near the three-week low recorded on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the war with Iran could end in the near future, and the White House reported progress toward a ceasefire agreement. Media reports also indicate a high likelihood of a second round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran in the coming days. This dynamic, along with easing concerns about inflationary pressure driven by energy price spikes, is prompting a reassessment of hawkish expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, potential policy easing by the US central bank is still projected toward the end of 2026. Meanwhile, moderate investor optimism is preventing dollar bulls from opening aggressive positions and is helping gold remain near the four-week highs reached the previous day.

Overall, current fundamental factors remain mixed, suggesting caution before opening positions targeting a significant decline in XAU/USD.

From a technical perspective, oscillators are hovering near the neutral line, confirming market uncertainty and a balance between bulls and bears.

On Thursday, the USD/JPY pair was struggling to maintain slight gains amid a weaker US dollar, trading below the key round level of 159.00.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of other currencies, is hovering near its lowest level since early March. This comes amid positive expectations of a sustainable peace agreement between the US and Iran, contributing to optimistic market sentiment. Moreover, US President Donald Trump has expressed the view that the conflict with Iran is nearing its end. These developments are putting downward pressure on the dollar, which in turn weighs on the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, hopes for a diplomatic resolution are preventing significant fluctuations in oil prices, keeping them near a three-week low reached the previous day. This, in turn, eases inflation concerns, reduces expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve policy, and further pressures the dollar.

The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is receiving some support from speculation about possible intervention by authorities to counter the weakening of the national currency, which also contributes to a decline in USD/JPY.

However, economic concerns related to instability in the Strait of Hormuz may limit significant strengthening of the yen. Japan is heavily dependent on energy imports from the region, and a blockade initiated by the US Navy restricting shipping to and from Iran could further complicate already strained oil supplies. This raises concerns about Japan's short-term economic resilience, which may restrain yen gains and support USD/JPY levels.

From a broader perspective, spot prices have fluctuated within a familiar range over the past month. This suggests the need for sustained selling before traders begin adjusting to recent corrections around the 160.00 level, which represents the highest level since July 2025 and was reached last month. Oscillators remain positive, but bulls have not yet broken above the 20-day SMA; only after that will they gain a stronger advantage. At the same time, it is worth noting that all key moving averages are trending upward, indicating a positive overall bias for the pair.

In the absence of significant US macroeconomic data capable of influencing the market, speeches by key members of the FOMC may provide additional momentum for the dollar and the USD/JPY pair.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies today. The yen has shown the strongest gains against the US dollar.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The wave structure on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. Recent news about a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new bullish wave. The overall picture now resembles the beginning of a new bullish trend. Over the weekend, geopolitics turned negative again as talks in Islamabad failed, but the ceasefire is still in effect, and negotiations may resume this week. This continues to support the bulls.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. She noted that before the war in Iran, the ECB had considered three possible scenarios for 2026, with the Eurozone moving along the most optimistic one. However, after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, economic prospects worsened significantly. GDP forecasts for 2026 were revised down to 0.9% year-over-year, while inflation expectations were raised to 2.6% year-over-year. According to Lagarde, a high level of uncertainty remains, requiring constant revisions of economic forecasts. She also highlighted the importance of energy prices, calling them a key factor influencing major economic processes. Lagarde added that if the conflict in the Middle East continues, the economic situation will deteriorate further. Up to 20% of global oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait remains blocked, energy shortages will persist, preventing expectations of lower prices, slower inflation, and faster economic growth. Lagarde did not specify whether the ECB plans to tighten monetary policy at its upcoming meeting in response.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 50.0% retracement level (1.1778), allowing traders to expect continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% (1.1849). A consolidation below 1.1778 would favor the US dollar and a potential decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. Bulls have managed to exit the descending trend channel, opening up additional opportunities. There are currently no emerging divergences.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 778 long positions and 8,826 short positions. Over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 201,000, while short positions total 208,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, major players still show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's focus remains on the Middle East, where the conflict shows no signs of ending. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. The dollar may once again benefit from this situation.

News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC)
• US – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)
• US – Industrial production change (13:15 UTC)

On April 16, the economic calendar includes three events that are not particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to be very weak or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from the 1.1824 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1745. I previously recommended buying after a close above 1.1770 with a target of 1.1830, which has been reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above 1.1824, with a target of 1.1923.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.2082–1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure has shifted to a "bullish" pattern. The latest upward wave has broken the previous peak (and is still forming), while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, but then the geopolitical background began to improve, boosting bulls' confidence. For several weeks, the pound traded sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465, but this week it managed to break out of that range.

There was essentially no news background on Wednesday. However, on Thursday morning, two reports were released in the UK—the only ones this week. GDP grew by 0.5% month-over-month and 0.5% over three months, exceeding forecasts of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Industrial production also increased more than traders expected—by 0.5% month-over-month versus a forecast of +0.3%. Annual industrial production figures were also better than expected at -0.4% versus -0.9%. Thus, UK statistics supported the bulls on Thursday morning. However, we did not see a strong reaction to these reports, as bulls had already been attacking almost daily over the past two weeks. Traders believe that a two-week ceasefire could be the beginning of a path toward a full peace agreement, and that negotiations between Iran and the US may resume soon, according to statements by Donald Trump. As a result, traders no longer feel the need for a "safe haven," which led to a 400-point drop in the US dollar and a bullish advance.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, bulls have finally gone on the offensive. A consolidation above the 38.2% retracement level (1.3540) allows for expectations of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% (1.3664). A bearish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, which may allow the dollar to regain some ground. However, a rebound from the 1.3540 level could enable bulls to continue their advance.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions decreased by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now roughly 47,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have been actively increasing short positions and reducing longs, leading to a strong imbalance. Bears have dominated in recent weeks, which raises no questions given the geopolitical context.

I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, there was initially a correction within a bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only driver of the US dollar's growth.

News Calendar for the US and UK:

• UK – GDP change for February (06:00 UTC)
• UK – Industrial production change (06:00 UTC)
• US – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)
• US – Industrial production change (13:15 UTC)

On April 16, the economic calendar contains four events, two of which have already been released. The impact of the news background on market sentiment for the rest of the day may be weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from the 1.3596 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3437. Buying was possible after a close above the 1.3437–1.3465 level, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3604–1.3620. The first target has been reached. The second target was revised to 1.3596 and also reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above the 1.3611–1.3620 level, with a target of 1.3700.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

The US rally is outpacing gains in equity markets globally. That is unsurprising: the United States is geographically distant from Iran and Israel, and its economy is less dependent on oil imports than Asia and Europe. On the contrary, heightened competition in those regions for energy has allowed US exporters to ramp up shipments and profit.

Performance of equity indices

Still, the S&P 500 rally looks surreal. Fast rallies are not unprecedented. Earlier, however, they almost always started from the depths of bear markets. Today, the broad index is not even down 10% from January highs. One somewhat analogous episode occurred in March 2000 — shortly before the dot-com bubble burst. Is history repeating? Could a breakdown in US–Iran talks and renewed escalation in the Middle East send the US index into a correction?

For now, that appears unlikely. According to a Bloomberg scoop, both Washington and Tehran are exploring extensions to the ceasefire to allow more time for substantive peace talks.

Performance of US equity indices

Investors are not deterred by geopolitics or stagflation fears. The US economy has repeatedly shown resilience to shocks in the past. Why shouldn't it repeat the trick?

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is re-establishing its uptrend. Key support is the pivot level at 6,990. Traders should stick to a buy?the?dip or breakout strategy. Long targets to watch are 7,100 and 7,180.