In the current situation, traders are left waiting for a reaction at imbalance 13. There are no other clear buying zones at the moment, and I still consider the trend to be bullish. Yesterday, bulls fell just short of reaching imbalance 13 and generating a signal. Notably, there are no bearish patterns at all, so there is currently no basis for selling the pair. The last buy signal at imbalance 12 worked very well, with the euro gaining about 270 points. Those trades could have been closed with solid profits.

It is worth noting that the entire rise of the U.S. dollar from January to March was driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated and bulls rushed in. At present, the truce remains fragile but intact. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the breakdown of important trend-forming lows. The movement over the past two months could evolve into a bearish trend if geopolitics continues to deteriorate. However, markets often price in the most pessimistic scenario in advance, trying to anticipate the most extreme outcomes. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. For further bullish advances, the market currently lacks positive developments from the region, while for bearish moves, it lacks negative catalysts.

The overall chart structure is currently clear. First, the price showed no reaction to imbalance 11. Second, it reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which represents a zone of interest for future long trades as well as a support level for the euro.

The news background on Friday was practically absent. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI had no impact. Bulls received minor support from the ECB's more hawkish stance compared to the Fed, but overall the situation remains unstable, mixed, and uncertain. The market largely ignored most economic data this week.

There are still plenty of reasons for bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the coming months, the U.S. currency may occasionally strengthen due to risk-off sentiment, but this would require continuous escalation in the Middle East. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will drive bears in the long term?

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Manufacturing PMI (07:55 UTC
• Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC)

On May 4, the economic calendar contains only two secondary events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be negligible.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news background shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend cannot be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, bulls may well continue their advance in the near term, provided geopolitics does not suddenly escalate again.

Traders had the opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, and the upward movement may continue toward the yearly highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which could soon provide another bullish signal. For uninterrupted euro growth, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward a stable peace, which is not currently the case. However, bears also lack sufficient reasons to attack. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis, which points to continued bullish dominance.

There is little more to add at the moment regarding the news background or the chart structure. The situation with resolving the conflict in the Middle East is completely stalled, and traders no longer even understand whether any attempts are being made to organize a new meeting between Tehran and Washington. The chart picture is simple and clear.

The pound's rise began with the "Three Drives pattern." Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, and the trend remains bullish. At present, the truce in the Middle East is quite fragile, and the parties involved have not yet decided what to do next: continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Negotiations may resume, but so could the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, and Tehran and Washington have not even been able to agree on a second round of talks, let alone a full agreement to end the conflict. In fact, as of Friday, nothing has changed for two weeks. The parties express a desire to sign a deal verbally, but in practice, no concrete steps are being taken.

The "Three Drives pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle, allowed bulls to go on the offensive. Imbalance 18 enabled traders to open long positions, and imbalance 19 provided another opportunity to do so. Thus, we have already received the third bullish signal within the current impulse. Bearish patterns and liquidity grabs are not causing any discomfort for bulls. I expect another bullish imbalance to form next week.

The economic news background on Friday was weak, but bulls, encouraged by the Bank of England's stance, continued their advance. The ISM Manufacturing PMI only supported them, as its reading came in below market expectations. The Federal Reserve did not support the dollar, and traders have largely turned away from geopolitics, as the most pessimistic scenario has already been priced in.

In the United States, the overall backdrop remains such that, in the long term, little can be expected other than a decline in the dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States does not change much. Geopolitics temporarily revived the dollar's safe-haven appeal for about two months, but overall, the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains challenging. The U.S. labor market continues to struggle, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—does not plan to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, there have already been four major protests across the United States against Donald Trump personally, and Jerome Powell's departure could further worsen the situation for the dollar (if the FOMC becomes more dovish under Kevin Warsh). From an economic standpoint, I see no basis for dollar growth.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On May 4, the economic calendar contains no significant events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives pattern" warned traders of a possible rise, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a bullish signal. The price performed liquidity grabs from bullish swings dated March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, but bears did not initiate an attack in either case. This is another positive factor for the pound—traders remain in a bullish mood. Under current conditions, despite geopolitical factors, I believe the upward movement will continue. Most likely, the euro will also continue to rise. I consider the 2026 high as the target for the pound. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered a corrective pullback, while the reaction to imbalance 19 provided traders with a new buying opportunity.

Gold (XAU/USD) continued a moderate intraday decline, falling below the round level of $4,600 and partially giving up the gains made the previous day, though it has currently recovered some of its intraday losses. Based on current dynamics, the precious metal is set to end a second consecutive week in negative territory, holding near a monthly low around $4,510 recorded on Wednesday.

Geopolitical tensions related to stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to support high oil prices, thereby strengthening inflation expectations.

Against this backdrop, expectations of tighter monetary policy from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), are increasing, which acts as a significant pressure factor on gold, a non-yielding asset.

U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's initiative to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, postponing discussions on the nuclear program to a later date. He also emphasized that the naval blockade would remain in place until Tehran agrees to terms addressing Washington's concerns over nuclear development. Additional signals suggest that the U.S. may consider new military measures against Iran. This heightens the risk of further escalation, supports demand for the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, and creates additional pressure on gold prices.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, the decision was accompanied by the highest number of dissenting votes since 1992, with three FOMC members opposing the continuation of a dovish tone in the regulator's statement. Additionally, macroeconomic data released on Thursday indicated accelerating inflation in March and resilient economic activity, reinforcing expectations that rates will remain at current levels through next year. These factors limit the potential for dollar weakening and strengthen the case for further declines in gold prices.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE index rose by 0.7% month-over-month in March, while annual inflation accelerated to 3.5% from 2.8% the previous month. Core PCE, which excludes volatile components, increased to 3.2% year-over-year compared to 3.0% in February. In addition, the preliminary estimate of GDP showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, significantly higher than the revised 0.5% in Q4 2025. At the same time, the probability of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in 2026 rose above 15%, up from a low of 1.3% the previous day. This limits aggressive dollar buying and may provide some support to gold.

Market focus is shifting to key U.S. macroeconomic releases at the start of the new month, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will be published later on Friday. Further influence on the dollar and precious metals markets will come from developments in the Middle East.

From a technical perspective, oscillators are negative; support is at $4,550 and resistance at $4,650. For bulls to gain a chance of control, they first need to break above the 20-day SMA, but for now, the market remains in the hands of bears.

The test of the 157.11 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 100 points.

Another intervention by the Bank of Japan led to a large-scale sell-off of the dollar and buying of the Japanese yen. However, most of the pair's decline was quickly reversed. In the second half of the day, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is expected to be released. An ISM Manufacturing PMI reading above forecasts typically supports the U.S. dollar. This could lead to further gains in USD/JPY—especially at such attractive price levels.

A scenario in which the index shows deterioration or falls short of expectations could trigger another sell-off in the pair. Signs of weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector may indicate a slowdown in economic growth, reducing the attractiveness of U.S. assets and leading to a decline in the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.77 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 157.58 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.58, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today is likely only with strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.40 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 156.77 and 157.58 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout above 159.40 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.35, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.77 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.40 and 155.35 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3597 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 10 points.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is expected to be released. This indicator, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management, is one of the most important leading indicators of the U.S. economy, as it reflects both sentiment and actual activity in the manufacturing sector. Strong ISM Manufacturing PMI data—exceeding forecasts or showing steady growth compared to the previous month—will inevitably have a positive impact on the U.S. dollar. Investors will interpret this as evidence of the resilience and strength of the manufacturing sector, reinforcing expectations for future economic growth and, consequently, supporting the dollar.

Conversely, if the index shows weakness or falls below expectations, it may trigger the opposite reaction. Weak manufacturing data could signal a slowdown in business activity, reducing the attractiveness of U.S. assets and potentially leading to a decline in the dollar against the British pound, thereby continuing the upward trend observed since yesterday following the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3614 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3652 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3652, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Further pound growth today is only likely after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3590 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3614 and 1.3652 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.3590 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3540, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return today if U.S. data is strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3614 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3590 and 1.3540 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

"It's highly unusual for someone who says he's an institutionalist and cares about norms at the Fed," Bessent said, commenting on Powell's actions. "This is a violation of all Federal Reserve norms." He emphasized that moving from the chairmanship to the position of a board member, without any cooling-off period, is an unprecedented step that could undermine the authority and independence of the central bank.

Bessent expressed concern that this decision could set a precedent for future chairs, encouraging them to remain on the board after their term as chair ends. The Treasury Secretary believes that such a practice weakens institutional norms, which play a key role in ensuring the stability and predictability of Fed policy. He called for stricter adherence to established traditions, which, in his view, serve the interests of the economy and the financial system.

Recall that on Wednesday, Powell announced he would remain on the Board of Governors for an unspecified period after Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to succeed Powell as chair, is confirmed by the Senate and takes office. Powell's decision to stay on the board follows numerous legal attacks on the Federal Reserve.

Bessent also said that the move amounted to an "insult" to Warsh and to governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, whom Trump had appointed.

Markets showed little reaction to the Treasury Secretary's attacks, as there were already other anchoring factors in play.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers should now consider how to take the 1.1735 level. Only this will allow a test of 1.1750. From there, a move to 1.1775 would be possible, but achieving that without support from major players will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1790. In the event of a decline only to around 1.1710, I expect serious action from large buyers. If there is nobody there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1685, or to open long positions from 1.1655.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3620. Only this will allow a target of 1.3650, above which breaking through will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3680 area. In the event of a fall, bears will try to seize control at 1.3570. If they succeed, a break of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3550, with the prospect of reaching 1.3525.

The test of the 1.1735 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 10 points.

In the second half of the day, important data on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is expected. Market participants will focus on the index value itself as well as the deviation from economists' forecasts. If the indicator exceeds expectations or shows steady positive dynamics, it will be interpreted as a favorable sign. Strong manufacturing activity traditionally signals stableeconomic growth, which in turn will increase the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar against the euro, potentially halting the current upward trend.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price level of 1.1750 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1786. At 1.1786, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1730 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1750 and 1.1786 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1730 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1689, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. data is strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1750 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1730 and 1.1689 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

That is exactly what happened this time. As soon as USD/JPY buyers pushed above the 160.50 resistance area (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart), Japanese authorities sharply stepped up their rhetoric. In particular, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that "the time for decisive action is approaching." Although she refrained from mentioning specific timing for possible intervention, her hints were more than transparent (for example, she urged market participants not to put their smartphones away in the near term). Adding fuel to the fire, Vice Minister of Finance and chief currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura described the developments as a final warning to speculators.

After those remarks, the market began mass liquidations of long USD/JPY positions. This process accelerated when major media outlets (notably Reuters and Nikkei) reported that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan had moved from words to action and had in fact carried out a coordinated operation to buy yen and sell dollars. In other words, Japanese authorities executed their first currency intervention since 2024.

Yesterday's volatility was amplified by the official start of Japan's so-called Golden Week, a series of national holidays, which reduced domestic market liquidity. For example, on 29 April Japan marked Showa Day, the birthday of the late Emperor Hirohito. Japanese banks and the Tokyo Stock Exchange were closed, and, with activity from Japanese participants reduced, liquidity in USD/JPY was significantly below normal.

Incidentally, one theory holds that the Ministry of Finance purposely chose a holiday to intervene, because on a thin market even relatively small currency injections can cause a much sharper and deeper price move than on a normal trading day. The situation allowed the regulator to push USD/JPY below key technical levels without serious resistance from dollar bulls.

It should be noted that Golden Week continues in Japan through 5 May inclusive, so the Japanese interbank market will operate in a limited fashion in the coming days. On such a thin market any repeat actions by Japanese authorities, or even intensified verbal interventions, could trigger new sharp moves in USD/JPY.

Given today's price retracement (buyers have managed to return to the 156 area, recovering part of the lost ground), it is worth recalling that the Japanese regulator often acts in series in such situations in order to consolidate the success of the first "attack" and convince the market of the seriousness of its intentions.

For example, in 2022 Japanese authorities executed a multistage operation: on 22 September they carried out the first round of intervention after the pair had moved into the 145 area. The rate plunged sharply but only briefly — buyers seized the opportunity and began to open long positions en masse, driving the pair back up toward the 152 area. Reacting to that situation, Japanese authorities launched a second attack—waiting until Friday evening, 21 October (when it was already night in Japan and liquidity in the West was diminishing), they intervened again, collapsing the rate from 152.00 to 146.50. And just two days later, on 24 October, Tokyo delivered a finishing blow. A third wave of dollar selling followed on Monday morning, preventing traders from buying the dip. That sequence allowed Japanese authorities to turn the trend for several months. In January 2023, USD/JPY updated its multi-month low near the 127 level. Naturally, other fundamental factors contributed, but Japanese regulators played a significant role.

All of this means that northward retracements in USD/JPY are highly unreliable and risky. Corrective spikes should be used as opportunities to open short positions, with initial targets at 156.00 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart) and 155.50 (the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart).

In the second half of the day, important data on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is expected. These figures are one of the key indicators of the state of the American economy, reflecting activity in the manufacturing sector. Particular attention will be focused on the index value for April this year. If the indicator exceeds forecasts or shows steady growth, it will be perceived by markets as a positive signal. Strong manufacturing activity is traditionally associated with solid economic expansion, which in turn increases the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar. Improved sentiment regarding the U.S. economy could trigger capital inflows into the dollar. If the data is weak, pressure on the U.S. dollar will return, leading to fairly strong gains in risk assets by the end of the week.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on implementing the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1750 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1773 and 1.1793;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1730 may lead to a decline toward 1.1709 and 1.1685;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3619 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3650 and 1.3683;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3587 may lead to a decline toward 1.3565 and 1.3537;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 156.73 may lead to dollar growth toward 157.05 and 157.40;
• Selling on a breakout below 156.33 may lead to a sell-off toward 155.96 and 155.56;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1758, with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1719, with a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3624, with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3576, with a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7208, with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.7180, with a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3592, with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3563, with a return to this level;

Meanwhile, yesterday, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made an unusual statement, saying that Bitcoin is a matter of US national security.

He said that, over the past decade, Bitcoin had moved from a marginal asset to an instrument discussed not only by investors but also by the military as well and that its decentralized nature and global reach posed new challenges and opened unexpected opportunities for states. He argued that the absence of a single center of control and the ability to transact outside traditional financial systems make Bitcoin both an attractive tool and a potential threat.

Hegseth noted that Iran, North Korea, and China are already actively studying and using Bitcoin for strategic purposes. For some, it is a means to evade sanctions and finance prohibited activities; for others, it is a tool for cyber operations and for accumulating reserves beyond the influence of rival states. Understanding the motives and mechanisms by which these countries use Bitcoin, he said, is critical to developing an appropriate response strategy.

Hegseth added that he had long supported Bitcoin and the crypto industry, viewing them as presenting both challenges and potential benefits. He also said the Department of Defense is already working on initiatives to study and make sense of this new digital landscape. He said that their task was not only to counter potential threats from hostile actors, but also to harness that potential in the interests of US national security, whether by defending against cyberattacks or by developing new, more effective financial tools.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $77,700, which opens a direct route to $79,100, and from there to $80,900. The most distant target is the high near $83,100; breaching that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $76,300. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $74,700. The furthest target there would be around $73,100.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,290 opens a direct route to $2,353. The most distant target is the high near $2,409; breaching that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,225. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,162. The furthest target there would be around $2,114.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

"I don't care if he stays on," Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday, responding to a question about whether he would take any action in connection with the chair's decision to remain on the Board of Governors.

He added that he had merely wanted to ensure Kevin Warsh would become the new Fed chair, referring to his nominee to lead the Board and succeed Powell.

Recall that Powell's term as chair expires on 15 May, but he plans to remain on the Board of Governors for an unspecified period. On Wednesday, during what was likely his last press conference as chair, Powell said that he intends to continue serving as a governor for a period which has not been precisely determined.

Warsh is likely to be confirmed by the full Senate before Powell's term as chair ends, after the Senate Banking Committee approved his nomination by 13 votes to 11, largely along party lines.

Nevertheless, Powell's continued presence could complicate the president's efforts to reshape the central bank, even if Warsh becomes chair. Primarily, it would deny Trump another vacant seat that he could fill with an ally and thereby attempt to tilt the Board further toward his view that the Fed should immediately and sharply cut interest rates.

On Thursday, Trump said he expected Powell to remain on the Board, and repeated an insult he made on Wednesday, that nobody would want to hire the departing Fed chair.

Also, yesterday, Treasury official Scott Bessent criticized Jerome Powell. "It's highly unusual for someone who says he's an institutionalist and cares about norms at the Fed," Bessent said, commenting on Powell's actions. "This is a violation of all Federal Reserve norms." Bessent emphasized that moving from the chairmanship to the position of a Board member, without any cooling-off period, is an unprecedented step that could undermine the authority and independence of the central bank.

Markets, however, showed little reaction to the public attacks by Trump and the Treasury official.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers should now consider how to take the 1.1735 level. Only this will allow a test of 1.1750. From there, a move to 1.1775 would be possible, but achieving that without support from major players will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1790. In the event of a decline only to around 1.1710, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If there is nobody there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1685, or to open long positions from 1.1655.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3620. Only this will allow a target of 1.3650, above which breaking through will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3680 area. In the event of a fall, bears will try to seize control at 1.3570. If they succeed, a break of the range will deliver a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3550, with a prospect of reaching 1.3525.

The wave situation on the hourly chart currently raises no questions. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low by only a few pips. A temporary truce between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. However, now, three weeks later, it can be said that geopolitics is once again moving in an undesirable direction. According to some reports, Donald Trump is ready for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which would effectively end negotiations and peace between Iran and the United States. Bears are regaining confidence.

On Thursday, there was a large amount of economic data released in both Europe and the United States, but I would like to highlight three events. First, the European economy grew by only 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year in the first quarter. Second, inflation accelerated to 3%, exceeding forecasts. Third, the ECB left its monetary policy parameters unchanged but signaled the possibility of tightening in the future. Together, these three factors allowed the euro to show growth, but the continuation of this growth remains uncertain. The European economy is slowing, and its growth rates have been modest in recent years. Inflation is accelerating, which will require tighter monetary policy, but at the same time, the ECB will delay rate hikes as long as possible, as they would further slow the economy. The next central bank meeting will take place in June, and by that time, two more inflation reports will be released, allowing an assessment of the scale of the problem. Inflation is rising and will continue to rise not only in the EU.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and began declining toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1617. In my opinion, the hourly chart is currently more informative due to weak price movements. Bulls seized the initiative in the market about a month ago but are now searching for new growth drivers. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 2,768 long positions and closed 12,538 short positions. Over seven weeks, the overall advantage of the bulls has disappeared, but the past two weeks indicate that bulls have returned to the offensive. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, while short positions total 176,000. The gap is widening again in favor of the euro.

Overall, in the long term, major players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has only been paused, not ended. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on the monetary policy of the Fed or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the situation in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the US and the EU:

• US – ISM Manufacturing PMI (12:30 UTC).

On May 1, the economic calendar contains one fairly important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may appear in the second half of the day but is likely to remain weak.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound from the 1.1745 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1666. I previously recommended buying on a rebound from 1.1666 with a target of 1.1745. The target has almost been reached. New buy positions are recommended after a close above 1.1745, targeting 1.1824.

Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation remains bullish. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak. Geopolitics provided the bears with almost complete dominance in the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop supported the bulls for three weeks. Currently, the situation in the Middle East is contradictory but is shifting toward escalation of the conflict and a prolonged confrontation between Iran and the United States. The bullish trend is on the verge of breaking.

The news background on Thursday was very interesting and provided strong support to the bulls. The most important event—the Bank of England meeting—did not surprise with its results, but traders still detected hawkish notes in them. The British central bank left all monetary policy parameters unchanged, and even the MPC voting results matched forecasts. One committee member voted for a rate hike, while the rest supported keeping it at 3.75%. Nevertheless, rising inflation prompted bullish traders to become more active. The Bank of England, like the ECB, will be forced to raise rates if inflation continues to grow in April and May. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has not signaled readiness to tighten policy in the near future, and Jerome Powell even allowed for the possibility of rate cuts in 2026. Thus, the ECB and the Bank of England have taken a more hawkish stance than the Fed, allowing bulls to go on the offensive. However, this rally may be short-lived. After central bank meetings, the market will shift its focus back to geopolitics, where the balance is again tilting in favor of the dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, which suggests a full-fledged bullish trend may develop. Consolidation above the Fibonacci level of 38.2% (1.3540) allows expectations for continued growth, but the chart pattern on the hourly timeframe is currently clearer, so I recommend paying closer attention to it. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,139, while short positions increased by 5,454. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively: 63 thousand vs. 115 thousand. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced long ones, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full ceasefire is still far off, and the conflict could resume at any moment. In this case, the advantage of the bears could become even stronger.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

• US – ISM Manufacturing PMI (12:30 UTC).

On May 1, the economic calendar contains only one, fairly important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be felt in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound from the 1.3596–1.3620 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3513–1.3539 and 1.3428–1.3437. Buying is possible if the price closes above the 1.3596–1.3620 level, with a target of 1.3700.

Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Monthly S&P 500 performance

A strong economy can tolerate higher rates. In that respect, the lowest level of initial jobless claims since 1969 and a 2% GDP expansion in Q1 gave bulls confidence. Business investment was the main growth driver, jumping 10.4% and marking the best showing in three years.

At the core of that investment surge are massive capex programs in AI. Companies continue to spend, and investors are pricing the payoff. They concluded that Alphabet's activity is effective, producing the largest one-day market-cap gain in the company's history and the second-largest ever in the US equity market.

Structure and dynamics of AI investment

By contrast, doubts about Meta Platforms' investment efficacy produced the opposite outcome: the stock plunged by about 9% and wiped roughly $175 billion off its market value. Even if the business is solid, investors will closely scrutinize capex plans to decide where to allocate capital given current fundamentals. Without a clear monetization path, the investment case is at risk.

Earnings season allows investors to overlook some immediate risks. However, a jump in oil prices to a four-year high increases the odds of accelerating inflation. That would force the Fed to keep policy restrictive and undermine global risk appetite, especially since Treasury yields and corporate funding costs for S&P 500 issuers would climb in parallel.

Despite the impressive rise in business investment, consumer spending in the GDP mix disappointed. After all, consumer demand has long been the main engine of US growth.

Earnings season fades, AI euphoria fades — what's left? It will be hard for the broad index to continue the rally if the US economy starts to disappoint, and the Fed is forced to maintain the federal funds rate amid inflation concerns.

Technically, the S&P 500 is in a steady uptrend on the daily chart. The first of the two previously stated targets, $7,200 and $7,300, has been met. The second target remains in view. It makes sense to use pullbacks for buy entries. The $7,100 level acts as support.

Gold is trading around $4,611 after several unsuccessful attempts to break out of the downtrend channel, and it is expected to continue falling toward the lower band of the downtrend channel, around $4,450, in the coming days.

If gold consolidates above $4,600 and decisively breaks out of the downtrend channel in the coming hours, we could expect it to continue rising, which could be seen as a positive signal to buy, with targets at the 7/8 Murray level around $4,687. Ultimately, we expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,739.

A pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $4,780 could be considered a bearish signal, and we could open long positions if the price encounters rejection below the 200 EMA.

Conversely, a drop below $4,600 could be seen as a resumption of the bearish cycle, and we could sell gold with targets at $4,500 and $4,470 near the lower band of the bearish trend channel.

Bitcoin is trading at $77,122 after forming an ascending wedge pattern, which is showing a positive signal. It is likely to continue rising in the coming days until it reaches the strong 5/8 Murray resistance level around $78,125; it could even reach the upper band of the downtrend channel, which coincides with this same price level.

Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the $77,000 zone, it is likely to retest $75,000 and could even reach the lower band of the downtrend channel, which coincides with the 200 EMA around $74,350.

A consolidation on the H4 chart below the psychological $75,000 level could give Bitcoin bearish momentum, and a break below the 200 EMA around $74,300 could push BTC down to the 3/8 Murray level around $71,875.

The outlook remains bearish for Bitcoin as long as the price settles below $78,125, and it is expected to reach $71,875 in the short term. Conversely, a decisive break above the downtrend channel and consolidation above the 5/8 Murray level could see Bitcoin reach the strong resistance at the 6/8 Murray level around $81,250.

ETH is trading around $2,284, having consolidated above the 200 EMA and the 21 SMA, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern that could support its bullish cycle. Ethereum is expected to continue rising in the coming days, potentially reaching $2,370.

Ethereum was at risk of a sharp decline but managed to consolidate above the 200 EMA, allowing it to recover some of its losses. It is now likely to continue rising in the coming days to reach the 7/8 Murray level around $2,343. Ultimately, ETH is expected to reach the upper band of the downtrend channel around $2,370.

If bearish momentum prevails and Ethereum consolidates below the 200 EMA around $2,250, we could expect a sharp drop toward the 6/8 Murray level around $2,187.

Given that the Eagle indicator is giving a positive signal and as long as the ETH price consolidates above $2,250, any pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity in the coming days.

After yesterday's statements by the heads of the ECB and BoE, the European and British currencies showed strong gains in the currency market, leaving the US dollar behind. The decisions made during the meetings, along with the subsequent comments, triggered a wave of reassessment of risks and expectations regarding future monetary policy. The indication of possible interest rate increases as early as June was a key factor that prompted this rally.

From the central banks' individual statements, a common position emerges: the Middle East conflict, which is putting pressure on commodity markets, particularly oil, is pushing central banks towards more decisive actions. The risk of renewed inflationary pressure associated with rising energy prices is becoming increasingly palpable. In this regard, considering the possibility of raising interest rates serves as a preventive measure aimed at stabilizing price dynamics and maintaining macroeconomic stability in the eurozone and the United Kingdom.

Although both central banks bought themselves some time by leaving interest rates unchanged yesterday while awaiting clarity on the war in Iran, they indicated they would consider raising rates over the summer.

ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that eurozone representatives would consider raising interest rates at their June meeting, following extensive discussions today on the feasibility of such a step. "The past period will be a suitable time to assess the state of the economy to make an informed decision based on validated and revised information," she said.

As for the BoE, its most pessimistic scenario, based on the forecast that oil prices will reach $130 per barrel and remain high, suggests a peak inflation of 6.2% by early 2027, and according to modeling based on monetary policy rules, interest rates may be raised up to seven times. Even the softer scenario currently preferred by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey anticipates two rate hikes, sharply contrasting with February when officials actively discussed the prospect of cutting interest rates.

In the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1735 level. Only then can they target a test at 1.1750. From there, it is possible to ascend to 1.1775, but this will be quite challenging without support from major players. The farthest objective will be the high of 1.1790. If the trading instrument drops only to around 1.1710, I expect serious action from major buyers. If there are none, it would be wise to wait for an update of the low at 1.1685 or open long positions from 1.1655.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3620. Only this will allow them to target 1.3650, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The farthest target will be the area of 1.3680. If the pair falls, bears will try to take control of 1.3570. If they succeed, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3550, with the prospect of a move to 1.3525.

Early in the European session, the euro is trading around 1.1725, undergoing a technical correction after attempting to break through the upper band of the uptrend channel.

The euro could consolidate in the coming hours around the 4/8 Murray line or the 21-day SMA before resuming its uptrend.

Technically, on the H4 chart, we observe that the euro is trading within a bearish trend channel formed since April 13. If the instrument falls below the 200 EMA around 1.1683, a strong technical correction toward the psychological level of 1.1500 could occur.

As long as EUR/USD consolidates above the 21 SMA and above the 200 EMA, any pullback could be considered a signal to continue buying in the coming days.

A decisive breakout and consolidation above the downtrend channel and above the April 26 high around 1.1750 could be seen as a positive signal, and we could continue buying the euro with targets at the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840.

The Eagle indicator is giving a positive signal, so we could buy the euro in the coming days in case of a technical correction to the 200 EMA. Around this area, a technical rebound could give us an opportunity to open long positions.

The test of the 159.10 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's downside potential.

Yesterday's sharp yen rise was a clear indication of the Bank of Japan's active interventions. The attempt to support the weakened national currency met with temporary success: the yen strengthened significantly against the US dollar and other major currencies. However, as is often the case after such government interventions, the achieved effect is likely to be short-lived.

The main reasons for such caution lie in the fundamental factors that continue to weigh on the yen. The gap in interest rates between Japan and other major economies, such as the US, remains significant. While the Bank of Japan maintains a wait-and-see policy, other central banks are preparing to raise interest rates. Interventions can only temporarily curb the decline, but do not eliminate the root causes of weakening.

Thus, the likelihood increases that Japan will again resort to direct intervention in the currency market. However, it will act, as before, in the vicinity of the 160 level, to which there is still room to grow. For this reason, the optimal strategy at the moment becomes buying dollars on corrections and pullbacks with the aim of returning the USD/JPY pair to the level of 160 yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 157.36 (green line on the chart), with a target at 157.90 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 157.90, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and serious pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.11 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 157.36 and 157.90 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level to 157.11 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.69 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers may return at any moment, needing only a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.36 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 157.11 and 156.69 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the price at 1.3504 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved up significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential.

The British pound sharply rose after the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep interest rates unchanged; however, several committee members indicated they were considering a rate hike soon. This decision may have initially seemed neutral, but the comments from committee members added considerable uncertainty and subsequently triggered active buying of the British currency. Investors interpreted the signals as a potential tightening of the Bank of England's monetary policy in the near future, leading them to take more bullish positions in the British currency.

Today promises to be eventful with the release of significant macroeconomic data. In the first half of the day, market participants will focus on data related to the PMI Manufacturing Index. This indicator reflects the health of one of the economy's cornerstone sectors. Its value can provide insights into current production trends and, consequently, the prospects for overall economic growth. In addition to the PMI, data on changes in the monetary aggregate M4 is also expected today. This figure serves as an important indicator of liquidity in the national economy and could signal upcoming inflationary pressures, which the Bank of England has been actively combating lately. The series of key releases will conclude with today's Nationwide House Price Index. Strong figures will lead to a new wave of growth in the British pound.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy pounds today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3598 (green line on the chart), with a target increase to 1.3641 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3641, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). A strong rise in the pound can only be expected after a firm position from the Bank of England. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3480 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3598 and 1.3641 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell pounds today after updating the level to 1.3580 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3540, where I intend to exit my shorts and also open immediate longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3598 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3580 and 1.3540 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the price at 1.1699 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 35 pips.

The European currency demonstrated significant growth against the US dollar after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde hinted at the possibility of revising interest rates at the June meeting, triggering an active upward move in the EUR/USD pair. Lagarde's statement caused a sharp spike in the euro, which showed substantial strengthening in global currency markets. Investors interpreted her words as a signal for the upcoming tightening of the ECB's monetary policy, which traditionally boosts demand for the national currency. Consequently, yesterday's trading ended with the euro in strong positive territory, and this positive trend has persisted into the beginning of today's Asian session.

Today, there is a likelihood of further euro growth since no new fundamental data from the Eurozone is expected. The market will likely continue to focus on rate-hike forecasts, which have become more pronounced following the ECB president's comments. In the absence of new information capable of shaking or correcting these expectations, market participants are likely to maintain the initiated trend.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1735 (green line on the chart), with a target increase to 1.1765. At point 1.1765, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Prospects for euro growth can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1717 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1735 and 1.1765 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1717 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be the level of 1.1689, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today may only return within the framework of a minor correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1735 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1717 and 1.1689 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Futures on US equity indices climbed, suggesting the rally that pushed Wall Street indices to record highs, powered by strong earnings from the largest tech companies, may continue. This advance reflects growing investor optimism about the prospects for US corporates, supported by the latest financial results from leading technology giants.

Quarterly reports from companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet showed impressive revenue and earnings growth, beating analyst expectations. Apple shares rallied in after-hours trading after a strong revenue guide, despite a warning about higher memory-chip costs. These results not only bolstered confidence in the individual names but also signaled resilient consumer demand and ongoing digital transformation that is fueling the tech sector.

The positive tone in S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq futures is expected to persist into the start of European trading, signaling market readiness to add long exposure based on corporate fundamentals. A strong finish to earnings season by the largest tech players creates a favorable backdrop for the rest of the market, reducing fears of an imminent correction and supporting expectations for further upside.

Meanwhile, the yen weakened slightly, trading around 157.18 per dollar after peaking at 155.57 on Thursday. Before government intervention, the currency was edging toward 161. The Nikkei rose by 0.7%, while several Asian markets were closed for a holiday.

Clearly, April presented traders with multiple challenges: oil surged on the Middle East crisis — a conflict with no resolution in sight — yet US equities posted their best monthly performance since 2020, driven by gains in technology and AI-related stocks. In the weeks ahead, investors will test whether AI-driven momentum can offset price pressures, geopolitical risks, and the sharp rise in oil that remains in place.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,233. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $7,256. Equally a priority for bulls is control above $7,283, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,210. A break below that level would likely push the instrument back to $7,190 and could open the way to $7,174.

Over the past month, the cryptocurrency market has shown predominantly upward momentum. The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, experienced significant growth, rising in price by nearly 12%. This figure shows a strengthening of the main digital asset's position and an increase in investor interest following a reduction in global geopolitical tensions.

Alongside Bitcoin, another key cryptocurrency, Ethereum, also demonstrated positive dynamics, although at a slower pace. During the same April period, Ethereum rose in price by 7.3%. This is a positive signal indicating a general recovery and strengthening of market sentiment following the active sell-off observed in recent months.

Such a general trend may be attributed to several factors. It is possible that investors have begun actively seeking riskier assets amid certain macroeconomic signals and geopolitical shifts. Furthermore, the ongoing development of blockchain technologies and the introduction of new solutions based on Ethereum continue to support interest in its ecosystem.

Overall, April 2026 has often been a positive month for the largest cryptocurrencies; however, this does not necessarily signal the start of a new bull cycle. It is more likely to be viewed as a phase of sustained market recovery. Ongoing observation of the dynamics of these assets and accompanying news flows will be crucial for understanding future trends.

Regarding intraday strategies in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continued development of a long-term bull market, which has not gone away.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point near $77,300 with a target increase to $77,800. Near $77,800, I will exit from the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary at $76,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown back to $77,300 and $77,800.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point near $76,900 with a target decline to $76,300. Near $76,300, I will exit from the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $77,300 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown back to $76,900 and $76,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point near $2,288 with a target increase to $2,278. Near $2,278, I will exit from the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary at $2,278 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown back to $2,288 and $2,307.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point near $2,278 with a target decline to $2,255. Near $2,255, I will exit from the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary at $2,288 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown back to $2,278 and $2,255.