Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the initiative in familiar rhetoric, calling the GENIUS Act a landmark framework and clear set of rules for payment stablecoins, saying the department seeks to give businesses the regulatory certainty needed for innovation and growth, to cement the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, and to keep the US the world's crypto capital.

The timeline for the rules' entry into force is staggered and increases in strictness over time.

From 18 January 2027, the expected effective date of the GENIUS Act, issuing a payment stablecoin in the US will only be permitted with an appropriate federal or state license, and digital-asset service providers will not be able to offer foreign stablecoins in the US if the overseas issuer lacks the technical capability and willingness to comply with lawful US requirements and the terms of any mutual agreements between the US and the issuer's jurisdiction.

From 18 July 2028, the requirements tighten further: providers will be completely prohibited from offering or selling payment stablecoins in the US unless those coins are issued by a licensed issuer.

Thus, the law establishes a transition period of nearly 18 months between the basic licensing requirement for new issuances and a full ban on unlicensed stablecoins for end users.

The public can submit comments for 60 days after the notice is published in the Federal Register, and those comments will be viewable on regulations.gov — giving industry a direct channel to influence the final wording of the rules before they are fixed.

All of this logically continues the institutional wave around stablecoins that accelerated this summer. Fidelity, State Street and Invesco have already launched money?market funds to serve as stablecoin reserve vehicles in line with GENIUS Act requirements, Visa has extended stablecoin support across the Visa Direct network, and Mastercard closed the $1.8 billion purchase of BVNK to deepen its stablecoin infrastructure. The Treasury's current paper also touches on a matter of particular importance for foreign issuers such as Tether, whose largest stablecoin USDT was effectively pushed out of the European market after the company refused to comply with MiCA requirements.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are now targeting a return to $65,000, which opens a direct path to $66,000 and then to $66,800; a break above $66,800 would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On a sell?off, buyers are expected at $64,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly drop BTC toward $62,800. The furthest target would be the $60,600 area.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,916 opens a direct path to $1,974. The furthest target is the high around $2,012; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On a decline, buyers are expected at $1,868. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,834. The farthest target would be the $1,782 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

Stocks joined Treasuries in the sell-off: inflation fears outweighed the enthusiasm around chips and AI. The decline hit most S&P 500 names, although some stories stood out — SanDisk gained 8.9%, Marvell rose 5.5%, and Micron 4.1% after reports of a 14-fold jump in Anthropic's Q2 revenue. Meanwhile, 30-year yields climbed to their highest levels since 2007, and the derivatives market priced in a new wave of monetary tightening.

The Middle East again played spoiler. President Donald Trump indicated he does not intend to extend the expired agreement with Iran and is in no hurry to defuse the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz — a route that carries a significant portion of global oil shipments. "Oil needs to come down, otherwise rates will stay too high, and the S&P 500 faces a correction," Interactive Brokers warns.

But it's not only geopolitics weighing on sentiment. Chinese retail sales rose just 0.6% in July — well below expectations and June's pace — adding to signs of cooling global demand. Recall that an earlier disappointing US retail sales report sparked market fear. Still, Goldman Sachs notes S&P 500 company revenues rose 6.4% — the best pace in five years excluding energy. Including revaluations of AI?startup stakes, overall profit growth approached 50%.

In reality, the market is balancing between two forces: rising oil ? higher inflation expectations ? tighter Fed rhetoric on one side, and strong corporate results fueling global risk appetite on the other. The minutes of the last Fed meeting, due August 18, could be the card that tips the scales. Investors are in wait-and-see mode: there are only a few days left until the symbolic central?bank gathering in Jackson Hole, and the government bond market is already signaling growing concern about US fiscal discipline.

Nvidia's report next week can either extend the tech inertia or spark the collapse of an expectations?built house of cards. Risks appear roughly balanced, and time will tell who is right.

Will the market withstand simultaneous pressure from oil, Treasury yields, and geopolitics? Or will the tales of a "hard landing" again prove premature?

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 is fighting for fair value at 7,745. A rebound would allow adding to longs; a drop below that level would be a trigger for short?term selling.

The key factor supporting the metal has been the reduction in expectations of a Federal Reserve policy tightening. Following a series of weaker economic data from the U.S., swaps no longer fully price in another rate hike by the end of the year, whereas just a week ago, such a scenario was considered almost assured. The weakening dollar automatically makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for most buyers.

Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached a near two-decade high, reflecting investor concerns about rising government spending, a flow in long-term bond issuance, and inflation. This creates an unusual but potentially supportive environment for gold, as investors view the metal as a hedge against the rising debt burden of governments. Typically, rising yields pressure gold through the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; however, when the reason is doubt about the sustainability of government finances, the metal benefits as a safe-haven asset.

Nevertheless, the risk of monetary tightening, which is traditionally negative for non-yielding gold, has not disappeared, as the prospects in the Middle East remain unclear. Against the backdrop of renewed hostilities in Lebanon, President Trump stated that he is not interested in extending the temporary truce with Iran that was signed in June. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, and this key shipping route continues to operate intermittently due to attacks on vessels.

The upcoming two events will be key for traders. On Wednesday, the minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released, which should clarify the future trajectory of rates and the depth of the divide within the committee, where three members advocated for an immediate hike. Later this month, close attention will be paid to Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the FOMC's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, where the new head of the central bank will make his first address in this capacity.

Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to break the nearest resistance at $4,432. This will allow targeting $4,481, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest objective will be around $4,546. In the case of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,372. If successful, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4,304, with the potential to reach $4,249.

A key signal for the market was President Trump's statement that he is not interested in extending the agreement with Tehran, which formally expired on Monday. The parties remain far apart on several issues, including the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is negotiating with Oman regarding the management of this critically important waterway, with Washington not participating in these discussions. Media reports indicate that Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it interfered with the American naval blockade.

The reality of the threats to shipping was confirmed on the same day. The British Maritime Trade Operations reported on Tuesday that a vessel leaving the strait was hit by a projectile of unknown origin, leading to damage in the engine room and the death of a crew member. Authorities are conducting an investigation.

Clearly, Trump's threats toward Oman and his refusal to acknowledge the urgency of a new ceasefire have prompted oil traders to buy, pushing Brent futures above last week's highs. The administration's position has been confirmed by other officials, indicating that Washington is in no rush to end the conflict, which is nearing its sixth month. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the U.S. is playing a long game with the Islamic Republic. At the same time, special envoy Jared Kushner noted that Trump will exercise patience regarding the deal.

An additional benchmark for traders will be the fresh data on U.S. crude inventories. Last week, the data showed an unexpected increase in reserves to a two-month high. Later on Tuesday, the industry group American Petroleum Institute is expected to release its estimates, while official data will be published mid-week.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at $86.60. This will allow targeting $89.60, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target is around $92.56. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control at $84.40. If successful, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $81.50, with the prospect of reaching $78.70.

The price test at 159.24 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential.

Strong U.S. data supported the dollar in the afternoon, with the key driver being the Empire State manufacturing index, which surged to its highest level in over four years. The housing market provided a more subdued signal, as the NAHB builder sentiment index increased by only 1 point to 35 and remained in the pessimistic zone. However, the strength in manufacturing outweighed this, bolstering the dollar on the back of rising expectations regarding the economy's resilience. For the yen, the dollar's strengthening put pressure, as strong U.S. data widened the gap between the more cautious Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. This difference has traditionally weakened the Japanese currency, and against the backdrop of positive data, the USD/JPY pair had reason to rise.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches around 159.83 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 160.14 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 160.14, I intend to exit my long positions and sell in the opposite direction, expecting movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its rise from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 159.64, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 159.83 and 160.14.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level of 159.64 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 159.36, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Sellers could return at any moment; only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 159.83 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 159.64 and 159.36.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3563 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound; however, the pair ultimately did not rise.

Positive U.S. data supported the dollar in the afternoon and undermined risk assets. The Empire State manufacturing index surged by 5 points to 20.6, reflecting the highest level of business activity in New York's manufacturing sector in over four years. This result alleviated some concerns about economic slowdown and strengthened arguments for a more hawkish Fed, which the American currency capitalized on. Against this backdrop, the British pound became dependent on external forces and surrendered ground to the dollar. The strengthening of the U.S. currency diminished demand for riskier assets, causing GBP/USD to retreat. A weak report on the housing market could have served as a mitigating factor, as the NAHB index rose only 1 point to 35 and remained deep in pessimistic territory; however, the market regarded this signal as secondary. The pound had no driving factors of its own, so the strength of the dollar primarily determined the extent of its decline.

Today, the British currency enters the first half of the day with an eye on a significant block of labor market data, including the unemployment rate and changes in the number of unemployment claims. Employment data holds particular weight for the pound, as it shapes expectations for the Bank of England's policy, and the market reacts primarily to deviations of actual figures from forecasts. An increase in the number of claims signals weakening labor market conditions, while a decrease indicates its resilience. The setup for the pair appears cautious. If the figures disappoint and are worse than economists' forecasts, pressure on GBP/USD will only increase, as weakness in employment undermines confidence in the economy's resilience and gives the BoE more reason for caution.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3539 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3558 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3558, I plan to exit my long positions and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Today's growth in the pound can be anticipated to follow the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its rise from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3528 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3539 and 1.3558.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3528 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3510, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Only bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3539 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3528 and 1.3510.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1591 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 pips.

A strong manufacturing report from New York set the tone for afternoon trading and supported the dollar. The Empire State index rose to 20.6, reflecting the highest business activity in the state's manufacturing sector in recent years. Since this indicator is one of the first to capture the state of the sector, its sharp increase convinced the market of the economy's resilience, thereby benefiting the U.S. currency. Against this backdrop, the euro lost ground. Strong data reinforced arguments for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy and increased demand for the dollar, driving the EUR/USD pair down.

The euro enters the first half of the day targeting the ZEW indices, which cover business sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the current situation assessment. These are considered leading indicators, as they are based on surveys of experts and are the first to capture shifts in economic sentiment. Their significance increases when compared to previous values. The dynamics compared to last month will indicate whether optimism is gaining strength or beginning to wane. Much will depend on how the fresh data correlates with past assessments and forecasts.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1580 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1609. At 1.1609, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. The growth of the euro can be expected to continue in line with the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its rise from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1565 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1580 and 1.1609.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1565 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1538, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return if weak data are released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1580 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1565 and 1.1538.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Meanwhile, BitMine has continued to buy Ethereum for the 14th consecutive month, while Strategy has not touched Bitcoin for the fourth week. Yesterday, it was reported that Tom Lee's BitMine added 9,926 Ethereum to its balance, bringing its reserves to 5,815,164 coins, about 4.8% of the asset's total supply and 96% of the way to its stated goal of owning 5% of all circulating Ethereum.

The regularity of accumulation is notable; the company has been buying Ethereum weekly for 14 months since launching its Ethereum treasury strategy on June 30, 2025, without a single miss. Over 5 million coins, or 87% of the total reserves, are staked through its own institutional platform MAVAN, generating an annual yield of 2.61% and a projected income of $250 million per year. Concurrently, the company has repurchased 1.7 million of its own shares, raising the total buyback volume since July 1 to 20.8 million shares under a $4 billion program, which Lee has called the largest such buyback among all crypto treasury companies in history.

In contrast, Strategy has completely ceased operations with Bitcoin this week, leaving its reserve unchanged at 840,447 coins. For the first time in a month, the company did not buy the asset. Instead, it directed all capital towards strengthening its preferred shares, repurchasing 1,388,720 shares for $132.2 million at an average price of around $95.20, financing the operation by selling 3,458,866 MSTR shares for $333.7 million. The proceeds were divided into three parts: $52.4 million in dividends on STRC, $132.2 million for the buyback, and the remaining $149.1 million to replenish the dollar reserve, which rose to $4.8 billion.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches around $64,500, targeting a rise to $64,900. At around $64,900, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario No. 2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $64,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction, targeting $64,500 and $64,900.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches around $64,300, targeting a decline to $63,900. At around $63,900, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario No. 2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $64,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction, targeting $64,300 and $63,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches around $1,907, targeting a rise to $1,926. At around $1,926, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario No. 2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $1,897 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction, targeting $1,907 and $1,926.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches around $1,897, targeting a decline to $1,885. At around $1,885, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario No. 2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $1,907 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction, targeting $1,897 and $1,885.

The euro is trading around 1.1572 within the uptrend channel that has been forming since July 24, and a technical bounce could be expected in this area, after which EUR/USD could resume its uptrend.

The euro encountered strong resistance around 1.1626 but failed to consolidate above the 7/8 Murray level. Now, EUR/USD may be showing signs of exhaustion in its upward momentum. We should watch to see if the instrument holds above 1.1560 to resume its uptrend so that we could open buy positions.

A decisive break below the uptrend channel and a consolidation below 1.1550 could change the outlook for the euro. We could expect EUR/USD to reach the psychological level of 1.15—around the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA)—in the coming days, and ultimately find strong support around the 6/8 Murray level at 1.1474.

Technically, we believe the euro could continue to fall, and we must remain vigilant, as a potential breakout from the uptrend channel could occur, given that the Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal.

Bitcoin is trading around $64,090, consolidating above the 200 EMA and within the downtrend channel that has formed since June 18.

If Bitcoin reaches strong resistance at $64,753 in the coming hours, this area could present a good opportunity to open short positions. It is likely that a technical correction could occur below this level, potentially bringing the price back toward the 4/8 Murray level around $62,500.

If Bitcoin falls and consolidates below $64,000 and below the 200 EMA, the outlook could remain negative, and we should monitor whether the price stays above this zone to continue buying.

A decisive break above the uptrend channel and above $64,753 could lead Bitcoin to reach $65,625; it could eventually hit the July 20 high around $66,700.

Conversely, if Bitcoin encounters strong resistance at the upper band of the downtrend channel, this could be seen as a clear signal to sell, with the price expected to reach $62,500 in the coming days and eventually the psychological level of $60,000.

Gold is trading around $4,394, after pulling back from a high of $4,436 reached during the Asian session. This level coincided with strong resistance, which, in turn, could be forming a triple-top pattern, suggesting the bearish cycle is likely to continue in the coming days.

Gold could find strong support around the lower band of the uptrend channel, at $4,384. A technical bounce above this level could be interpreted as a buy signal, and one might expect it to challenge the strong resistance at $4,436 and ultimately reach the 5/8 Murray level, around $4,531.

Conversely, if gold falls below the 4/8 Murray level, the outlook could turn negative, so the instrument could reach the 3/8 Murray level, around $4,220, in the coming days.

Should gold decisively break below the channel formed since early August, and if it consolidates below the Murray 4/8 pivot point, the outlook could be a clear bearish signal, which could be considered a selling opportunity with targets at $4,310, $4,285, and finally at the 200-day EMA, around $4,200.

The Eagle indicator is in negative territory, so we will continue to sell in the coming days as long as the price of XAU remains below the triple-top pattern.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant experts have urged retail traders not to attempt to "catch" the market bottom. They reported that the share of Bitcoin supply in profit has fallen to 51%, the lowest level in three years and historically an indicator that precedes an accumulation phase. In other words, Bitcoin is already trading at levels where new bull trends have historically begun. However, it's not that simple. We have often said that historical data is useful, but it's na?ve to assume every new Bitcoin cycle will follow the old rules. In our view, nothing prevents Bitcoin from a further fall in the medium term and dropping well below $50,000. It should be understood that the proportion of underwater Bitcoin positions can be anything. If investors are unwilling to buy "digital gold" now, and supply on exchanges exceeds demand, then regardless of what any indicators say, there will be no upward move.

CryptoQuant experts also noted that the "market bottom" is a very elastic concept. Its formation can take a very long time. Many market participants may lack the patience because of fear of further declines. Thus, to "catch the bottom", one needs not only conviction but also patience. We would add that we do not consider current levels of the "digital gold" to be the market bottom, and therefore we expect further declines in the leading cryptocurrency.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been worked off. We do not believe the downtrend is over. The last bearish FVG pattern was formed in the $68,000–70,700 area on the daily timeframe, so that zone serves as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is again biased toward a fall, but movements will most likely remain choppy and swing-like. Traders can consider trades from local patterns, but we would not count on strong moves right now.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily timeframe, the downtrend that began in August last year continues. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of its completion for either Bitcoin or Ether. Currently, the second leg of the correction continues, which recently transformed into a flat. In a flat market, you can only trade from its boundaries; the subsequent direction will be determined after the flat ends. Near the upper boundary of the sideways channel ($1,800–1,942), no deviation or pattern has formed, so there are no trading signals at this time. Ether is positioned exactly in the middle of the channel.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG is Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG stands for Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

Strong U.S. data supported the dollar in the afternoon, primarily driven by the Empire State manufacturing index. The New York manufacturing sector accelerated to its highest level in over four years in August, with the overall index rising by 5 points to 20.6. This indicator reflects business activity in the region's manufacturing sector and serves as an early benchmark for the economy. Thus, such a confident rise confirmed its strength and added weight to the dollar. The picture for the housing market, however, was much more subdued. The NAHB builder sentiment index added only one point to 35 and remained deep in pessimistic territory, indicating ongoing problems in the real estate sector. Nevertheless, the market focused on strong industrial data, which placed pressure on both the euro and pound. Both European currencies lost ground, and EUR/USD and GBP/USD retreated under pressure from a stronger dollar.

Today, attention will be on the ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the current situation index. The ZEW index is based on surveys of financial analysts and investors and reflects their expectations for the economy in the coming months. In contrast, the current situation index assesses the current state of affairs. The gap between these components is particularly telling, as expectations better predict future dynamics, and the market traditionally compares recent values with past ones to understand whether sentiment is improving or deteriorating. For the euro, this data is directly relevant. If expectations improve compared to the previous month, it will bolster confidence in the economy's resilience and support the euro; conversely, a deterioration relative to past values will add pressure. The EUR/USD pair will respond primarily to how the actual figures compare with previous ones and the forecast; without a significant deviation, the initiative will remain with the dollar.

As for the pound, traders are awaiting important UK labor market data today, specifically the unemployment rate and changes in the number of unemployment claims. The unemployment rate reflects the share of the workforce that is unemployed and characterizes the overall state of the labor market. At the same time, changes in claims provide a more timely indicator, as they quickly capture emerging trends in layoffs and hiring. Both metrics directly influence expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate, as a strong labor market gives the central bank room for tighter policy, while its weakening nudges toward caution. Therefore, the pound's response will largely depend on how the data aligns with forecasts. If the figures disappoint and are worse than economists' expectations, pressure on the GBP/USD pair will only increase, as weakness in employment undermines arguments for economic resilience. Strong figures, by contrast, will support the British currency.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout at 1.1590, which may lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1613 and 1.1645.
• Sell on a breakout at 1.1566, which may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1541 and 1.1514.

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout at 1.3552, which may lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3569 and 1.3588.
• Sell on a breakout at 1.3527, which may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3501 and 1.3475.

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout at 159.83, which may lead to a rise in the dollar to around 160.02 and 160.24.
• Sell on a breakout at 159.60, which may lead to a dollar sell-off down to around 159.39 and 159.13.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1591 on a return below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1564 on a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3556 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3522 on a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7111 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.7096 on a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3887 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3864 on a return to this level.

Crude oil managed to remain within the uptrend channel formed since August 4. During Monday's Asian session, it consolidated around the lower band of the uptrend channel and experienced a strong technical rebound. Crude oil resumed its uptrend above $81.25 and is likely to continue rising in the coming hours.

Crude oil reached its July 31 high around $84.65 and is technically very close to retesting that level. Therefore, we believe that if the price breaks through and surpasses $84.065 in the coming hours, we could expect it to quickly reach the 6/8 Murray level around $87.50 and might even reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around $88.90.

In the event of a technical correction and if the price consolidates above $83, we could expect a technical rebound around the lower band of the uptrend channel, which could be considered an opportunity to open long positions.

Only a decisive break below the uptrend channel and consolidation below the 5/8 Murray level would lead us to expect crude oil to fall in the coming days until it reaches the key $75 level, around the 4/8 Murray level.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal. Hence, we believe a good idea to sell would be to wait for the price to reach the 6/8 Murray level or for a decisive break below the uptrend channel.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is heating up again. Just yesterday, Donald Trump announced that he is ready to order strikes against Oman "if it interferes with the U.S. in the fight against Iran for the Strait of Hormuz." In simple terms, Trump does not welcome any deals or agreements between Tehran and Muscat, but it remains unclear exactly what has angered him. In any case, Trump has issued threats against Oman, which had previously maintained complete neutrality and had not involved itself in the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran is tired of being isolated from the world (although it has been doing so for the last 50 years). One high-ranking Iranian official, speaking anonymously, informed Reuters that Iran is ready to forcibly break the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. I wouldn't qualify this announcement as "news of the week" that "will inevitably lead to new sparring." First, it's unknown how high-ranking the official really is. Second, it's uncertain whether this information is accurate. Third, it could simply be a typical "duck," of which there have been numerous over the past six months. Fourth, Iran cannot be unaware that lifting a naval blockade is unlikely to succeed. For the same reasons, Americans cannot break Iran's blockade by force either.

So, what is a blockade? Tehran declares that the strait is closed and that any vessel attempting to cross it will be attacked. How can it be lifted if Iran can strike any ship from any point? We are not living in the Stone Age or the Middle Ages. To strike, one does not need to be in proximity to the target or have visual contact with it. Therefore, Iran can launch strikes from anywhere within its territory, which is not small. Consequently, to lift the Iranian blockade, all launch sites, planes, missiles, and drones in Tehran's possession would need to be destroyed. It's clear to everyone that this is impossible.

The same applies to the American blockade. Suppose Iran destroys U.S. military vessels in the Persian Gulf. Washington can still launch missiles and the same drones from allied military bases, which are sufficiently numerous in the region. Therefore, Iran cannot lift the American blockade by force, and the U.S. will not lift the Iranian blockade of the strait either. The most Iran can achieve is to trigger a new escalation, which, by the way, it does not seem very interested in.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend and, in the short term, has presumably transitioned to a new upward wave sequence. In my opinion, this is an excellent time to form long positions. Wave 5 in C has taken on a shortened form. Unless the downward segment of the trend that began on January 28 takes on a more extended five-wave form (which requires a strong news background in favor of the dollar), the EUR/USD instrument is at the very beginning of a new, prolonged upward segment of the trend, with targets extending up to the 25 figure.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has taken on a completely clear form. We now see a well-defined corrective structure A-B-C on the charts, which has been completed. Therefore, I expect the construction of an upward wave sequence that takes on an impulsive form, which coincides with the impulsive structure of the EUR/USD instrument. If this is the case, the British pound is currently in its third wave, and the targets for the entire trend segment lie above the 39 figure. In the coming months, I only consider trading on the upside.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to play, and they often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

There are quite a few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Tuesday. In the UK, today will see the release of the unemployment rate, wage growth for June, and the number of unemployed for July. In Germany and the Eurozone, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will be released. In the U.S., reports on new home construction, building permits, and the weekly ADP employment report will be published. However, among these reports, we can highlight only the UK unemployment rate. This report could provoke a market reaction only in the event of a deviation from the forecast, while the other data is, frankly, secondary.

Review of Fundamental Events:

One notable event on Tuesday is a speech by the European Central Bank's Chief Economist, Philip Lane. It's worth recalling that the ECB is the only G7 central bank to have already tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation amid the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the energy crisis. However, the ECB is not planning to stop there, and if consumer price growth continues, it is ready to implement one or two more rate hikes. Thus, the Chief Economist's comments could provide traders with clues about whether to expect another rate increase in September. In our view, the conflict in the Middle East will persist, leaving little chance for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This means that oil prices are unlikely to fall in the near future.

The geopolitical backdrop remains quite troubling. The U.S. and Iran continue to exchange strikes regularly; negotiations are currently non-existent; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed; Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Tehran threatens to fully close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington attempts to exert pressure again. Tehran has also presented a list of demands to Washington necessary for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump has put forth his own demands. Neither side intends to meet them. On Monday, Tehran also warned Washington that if the blockade is not lifted, it will commence a "clearance" by its own means. The rhetoric is clearly escalating, and oil prices are rising again.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, currency pairs may trade fairly sluggishly, as there will be few important news items today. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3587-1.3598. Overall, we expect further strengthening of both the euro and the pound against the U.S. dollar, and only the most important reports this week or geopolitical developments can hinder this.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair experienced a slight pullback on Monday, but overall volatility was extremely low throughout the day. Therefore, discussing any notable price changes is not particularly meaningful. A 30-40 pip move in the British pound is typical market noise. Thus, it cannot even be said that the market reacted strongly to the disheartening news from the Middle East. The GBP/USD pair remains clearly within the upward channel, so upward movement may well continue this week. Moreover, the threats from Iran should not be taken too seriously at this point, as Tehran must understand the consequences of such actions. This week (especially on Tuesday and Wednesday), traders should focus on the British macroeconomic data. Tomorrow's inflation report will follow today's unemployment report. The inflation report will significantly influence the Bank of England's monetary policy in the coming months.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Monday. As a result, novice traders had no basis for opening positions. The volatility of the pair, in any case, was low, and with such volatility, any signals would not yield profits.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend. In our view, the British pound should continue to rise, even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly timeframe, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper continues. This movement is not yet complete. The market's belief in a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is diminishing, as recent U.S. macroeconomic data has been weak. Only a consolidation below the upward channel on the hourly timeframe could allow the dollar to show growth.

On Tuesday, novice traders can open short positions if there is a rebound in the 1.3587-1.3598 area, targeting 1.3456-1.3476. Long positions can be opened targeting 1.3631-1.3641 if price consolidates above the 1.3587-1.3598 area.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels to consider include 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Tuesday, the UK will publish data on the unemployment rate, the number of unemployed, and changes in wage growth rates. In the U.S., reports on the construction sector and the weekly ADP report will be released. Of all the reports, we can only highlight the unemployment report from the UK.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed based on the time it took to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a plethora of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair was unable to continue its upward movement during Monday's trading after some less-than-positive geopolitical news came in during the afternoon. There is currently no reason for panic, but Iran warned the U.S. that if the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not lifted soon, Tehran will remove it by its own means. In simple terms, Tehran intends to reclaim the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to take new military action if necessary. In our view, such a move by Iran will inevitably lead to escalation of the conflict, but Iran effectively has no other path if it does not want to be in a besieged position for another 5 to 10 years. It is difficult to say what the new escalation will lead to, but it clearly will not result in lower oil prices. Thus, the more escalation-related news that comes to market in the near term, the fewer chances there will be for continued growth of the euro and pound. Geopolitics will, at the very least, impede the upward momentum.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Monday, neither of which generated significant profit for traders. It should be emphasized again that the pair's volatility throughout the day was quite low, so high profits were not to be expected. Both signals marked on the illustration could have been utilized by novice traders. The first trade closed at stop-loss at breakeven, while the second trade may still be open.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. Considering recent events, we believe the European currency should continue to grow with confidence. In recent months, the market has stubbornly ignored many factors in favor of the euro, which is why we still expect it to move higher unless geopolitical issues intervene.

On Tuesday, novice traders may stay in short positions with targets at 1.1527-1.1531, as price has settled below the 1.1584-1.1594 range. Buy trades can be opened if the 1.1584-1.1594 area is breached, targeting 1.1655-1.1665.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1665, 1.1745-1.1754. On Tuesday, the Eurozone will publish the ZEW economic sentiment indices, while the U.S. will release secondary reports on the construction sector. We believe all these reports will likely provoke only a very minor reaction from the market.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The GBP/USD currency pair also attempted to continue its upward movement on Monday, but in the afternoon, it retreated slightly. Market volatility was again quite low, as the only notable news of the day was Iran's announcement that it was ready to remove the U.S. naval blockade by military means. Simply put, Iran is prepared to use military means to achieve its own objectives and goals. While these are still just threats directed at the U.S. and Donald Trump, we tend to trust the words of Tehran's officials more than the American president's promises. Iran has made it clear that if the U.S. fails to meet the conditions of the agreement from June 17, it will lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by force. This implies that Tehran may plan to strike American warships stationed near the strait, controlling it. One can be sure that such an act of aggression will not go unanswered by Washington. However, as we've already mentioned, Iran and the U.S. could freely engage in conflict for a couple more years. It is naive to think that the dollar will continue to rise solely on geopolitical grounds during this time. The American currency is currently driven by completely different factors, which we regularly outline.

From a technical standpoint, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly timeframe. In the long term, the pair is in a sideways channel and continues to move from the lower boundary of this channel to the upper. Thus, the nearest target is at 1.3588, but this level does not appear to be a "final stop." The dollar may experience periodic corrections, but we do not expect any significant strengthening.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Monday. The price moved mostly sideways during the day and did not approach any significant lines or levels.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that, for several months, non-commercial traders have dominated the market, selling. The net position remains negative despite the ongoing long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for riskier currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Geopolitics could sustain demand for the U.S. dollar in the near term. However, we would not expect a significant decline in the pair until it firmly settles below the trend line.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as seen clearly on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, directly and indirectly, at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as indicated by the trend line. The price has recently interacted with this line and has rebounded from it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 11), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,300 BUY contracts and 8,600 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,700 contracts over the week.

GBP/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to develop its upward trend, as indicated by the trend line. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" bullish and have been trading within sideways channels for a full year. This does not negate the upward trend that began in 2022. We expect the British pound to continue to grow in the coming weeks. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price settles below the trend line.

For August 18, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3471) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3520) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set the stop-loss to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Tuesday, the UK will release data that can be considered relatively important. Primarily, this includes the unemployment rate, which may decrease to 4.8%. Secondly, there will be information on changes in the unemployment rate and wage growth rates. In the U.S., reports on labor, ADP employment, building permits issued, and housing starts will be released today. We consider all reports, except for unemployment, to be secondary.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders can open short positions targeting 1.3465-1.3480 if the price settles below the Kijun-sen line. Long positions can be opened in the event of a price rebound from the critical line, targeting 1.3588.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) are represented by thick red lines, where price movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extremity levels are thin red lines from which the price previously rebounded. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines represent trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair showed notable movement on Monday. It should be noted that no important economic news was released during the day. Almost from the start of trading, the European currency began to rise, which fully corresponds to our expectations and forecasts. However, in the afternoon, information emerged that Iran plans to go on the offensive in the Strait of Hormuz and break the American blockade by military means. Naturally, this suggests an escalation of the conflict, with Tehran explicitly stating its intention to shift from a "completely defensive strategy" to an "offensive" one, as negotiations with Washington have reached a dead end. While these are still just threats, which we have heard countless times in recent months, there is a saying: there is no smoke without fire. If Iran proceeds to break the naval blockade, it will inevitably prompt further U.S. strikes. Such developments are unlikely to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, the dollar saw minimal appreciation in the afternoon. However, we would not expect significant growth in the American currency: at most, a correction.

From a technical standpoint, the pair has left the sideways channel at 1.1362-1.1461 after a month of "struggling" and is now in an upward trend. This trend is weak and slow, but it should be noted that none of the global factors currently favor the U.S. currency. Only geopolitics can help it, specifically some significant event, not just the latest mutual shelling between Iran and the U.S.

On the 5-minute timeframe, on Monday, two trading signals were formed. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the price broke the 1.1585 level, allowing traders to open long positions. However, during the American session, the price settled below this level, allowing short positions to be opened. As of now, the pair has not shown any decline.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated August 11. On the weekly timeframe illustration, it is evident that the net position of non-commercial traders has become "bearish" and has significantly decreased in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but for a time, the dollar has acted as a "reserve currency."

We still do not see any fundamental factors for strengthening the European currency, but there remain sufficient reasons for the U.S. dollar's decline. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but once this factor loses its "expiry date," everything will return to normal. This process may have already concluded. In the long term, the euro could fall to levels around 1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will remain relevant. In recent months of dollar growth, the pair has not approached this line significantly.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 4,600, while the number of shorts decreased by 2,700. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 1,900 contracts over the week.

EUR/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the pair maintains an upward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving, but this is not enough for a new, powerful dollar rally. The market has ignored the positive factors for the euro in recent months and has focused solely on the Fed's monetary policy, placing inflated demands on it. Now, however, the European currency has every chance of medium-term growth, while the dollar can only expect a technical correction and geopolitical factors.

For August 18, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362-1.1368, 1.1461-1.1473, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1518) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1563). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set stop-loss orders to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This safeguards against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Tuesday, ZEW's economic expectations indices will be published in the EU, while in the U.S., the ADP report, building permits issued, and new housing starts will be released. We consider all these reports to be secondary and do not expect strong market reactions to them.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may remain in short positions with targets at 1.1563 and 1.1536-1.1542, as price has settled below 1.1585. A consolidation above 1.1585 will allow for long positions with targets around 1.1657-1.1666.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) are represented by thick red lines, where price movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extremity levels are thin red lines from which the price previously rebounded. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines represent trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Monday, but as we warned, volatility was low. On the first trading day of the new week, there were no important geopolitical, macroeconomic, or fundamental events. The market continued its momentum in buying U.S. currency, which explains the slight strengthening of the pound.

However, this week, traders will encounter a significant number of important data points from the UK. Some reports may influence the future of the British currency. First and foremost is inflation, which will be published on Wednesday. This report will answer the question of whether the Bank of England can tighten monetary policy in the near future. Recall that the market has recently considered two facts. First, Andrew Bailey warned in the spring that inflation in the UK could accelerate in the second half of 2026. Second, the BoE indicated at its last meeting that tightening was unlikely given the current macroeconomic data. Thus, to increase the probability of a rate hike, inflation must accelerate.

According to forecasts, the consumer price index (CPI) in July is expected to be 2.9-3.0%. Meanwhile, core inflation may slow to 2.5%. Which of these indicators is more important? We believe that the core figure, which may show growth, is critical. Not a substantial increase, according to forecasts, but growth. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, inflation could easily rise to 3.5%. This level would suggest "hawkish" intervention by the BoE.

Thus, the inflation report on Wednesday is rightly the most important report of the week, at least for the GBP/USD pair. In our opinion, the pound, like the euro, should continue to rise regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. Practically all global factors currently do not support the dollar. Therefore, it is not particularly important what the specific inflation level will be in July in Great Britain. The dollar may continue to decline based on technical factors (movement within a sideways channel on the daily timeframe from the lower boundary to the upper), geopolitical factors (the situation in the Middle East is not worsening, and the geography of the conflict is not expanding), macroeconomic factors (all the most important reports in the U.S. have recently failed), and fundamental factors (the probability of the Federal Reserve tightening its monetary policy in the near future has sharply decreased).

By the end of the year, we expect the GBP/USD pair to return to the highs of the last four years, around the 39 level, and possibly break those highs. The GBP/USD pair has been correcting within a global upward trend for more than a year, so now is the time to think about resuming the trend. The dollar has utilized all its growth factors in 2026.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days as of August 18 is 48 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "low." Thus, on Tuesday, August 18, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3506 and 1.3602. The higher linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating a downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory for the third time, again warning of a possible correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3550
• S2 – 1.3489
• S3 – 1.3428

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3611
• R2 – 1.3672
• R3 – 1.3733

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains its upward trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth for the U.S. dollar. The year 2026 has been super positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors, but every fairy tale comes to an end. A range persists on the weekly timeframe between levels 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, supporting the expectation of continued growth for the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets of 1.3602 and 1.3611 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, bearish trading can be considered, with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3367.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, the trend is strong right now;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility readings;
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade higher on Monday, despite no macroeconomic reports or fundamental events scheduled for the day. Thus, traders resumed buying the EUR/USD pair from the morning. On the 4-hour timeframe, the upward movement looks impressive, but on the daily chart, it is clear that if we are talking about a new wave of a global upward trend, we are only at the very beginning. Therefore, we expect the strengthening of the European currency to continue in the medium term.

Many analysts and traders are currently asking why the U.S. dollar is falling. We addressed this question throughout 2026. Although the dollar has been in demand for most of the current year, even novice traders understand the reasons behind it. At the beginning of the year, Donald Trump found no better way to divert attention from the "Epstein files" than to start a war with Iran. It suddenly became clear that Iran could launch a nuclear strike against the U.S. at any moment, so the nuclear threat needed to be urgently eliminated. This is what Trump focused on at the end of February this year. As of August 2026, America has failed to achieve any of its objectives in the Middle East, and Trump's military aggression has resulted only in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. dollar, which began the year with another decline and renewed four-year lows, suddenly started to rise sharply. Of course, it was impossible to predict that Trump would start a full-scale war, considering he had positioned himself as the leading peacemaker of the 21st century last year. Thus, the dollar's growth was unexpected. Nevertheless, investors began to save their capital and withdraw assets from the Middle East. This is why the dollar showed the growth that should not have occurred.

By mid-summer, the market was still buying the U.S. dollar, but for different reasons. Trump's war triggered a global oil crisis, leading to rising prices. Inflation increased, placing the task of controlling it before the Federal Reserve. The only way to control it is to raise the key rate and slow down the economy. However, the economy was slowing down in the second quarter even without the Fed's assistance, and the labor market has been declining for four consecutive months. Thus, the market completely overlooked two things. First, the Fed is now headed by Kevin Warsh, who Trump appointed to influence monetary policy. Second, high inflation does not automatically mean that the Fed will rush to tighten policy. The economy is slowing down, and the labor market is experiencing a painful crunch, so any tightening is out of the question at this time. If the labor market does not begin to recover, there will be no tightening. But how can the labor market start to recover if lowering the key rate is required to do so? The situation is a stalemate, and the Fed is unlikely to tighten given these conditions. The market had been actively anticipating tightening in 2026, but it is unlikely to see it.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past five trading days, as of August 18, is 41 pips, which is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1544 and 1.1626 on Tuesday. The higher linear regression channel is pointing down, indicating the preservation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory again, signaling a possible downward pullback.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1566
• S2 – 1.1536
• S3 – 1.1505

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1597
• R2 – 1.1627
• R3 – 1.1658

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, suggesting the beginning of a new phase of the global uptrend on higher timeframes. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative. However, in 2026, both geopolitical factors and the Fed's hawkish stance have provided significant support for the U.S. currency. At this time, these factors no longer support the dollar.

With the price positioned below the moving average, short positions can be considered, targeting 1.1505 and 1.1475. Long positions remain relevant above the moving average line with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1627.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, the trend is strong right now;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility readings;
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The price of gold continues to consolidate above the key level of 4400.00, maintaining the positive momentum gained last week. The primary driver of growth remains the weakening of the U.S. dollar against the backdrop of declining expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. However, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation risks related to oil prices limit the potential for further growth.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was demonstrating resilience, trading around 4423.00, recovering from a recent drop below 4300.00. The renewed pressure on the U.S. dollar is the main supporting factor.

The decrease in expectations for a Fed rate hike has been a key catalyst. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to about 33% from over 50% a week earlier.

This change followed a series of weak economic data from the U.S., including a disappointing non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, cooling inflation (as per CPI and PPI indices), an unexpected 0.6% drop in retail sales in July, and a decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to 51.0.

Concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices, which, in turn, keep inflationary risks on the agenda and create uncertainty for the Fed.

Brief Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bullish medium-term bias, consolidating above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but faces strong resistance around 4400.00.

On the Daily Chart:

• EMA50 is around 4235.00. The price is significantly above this level, confirming the persistence of the bullish momentum.
• EMA144 is located near 4340.00.
• EMA200 is around 4290.00, forming a key long-term support level. A breakout below this level followed by a further increase, indicates a transition to a sustainable bull market.
• RSI (14) is around 65-66, approaching the overbought zone, which may signal a correction or consolidation.
• OsMA is in positive territory, confirming the persistence of bullish momentum alongside the positive zone it remains in.

Key Events to Watch

Conclusion and Recommendations:

The XAU/USD pair is in a consolidation phase above the important resistance level of 4400.00, where a weakening dollar and reduced Fed rate-hike expectations create a foundation for further growth. However, technical resistance and ongoing uncertainty regarding geopolitical and monetary policies limit growth potential. The key catalysts will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.

For Short-Term Traders:

• Enter long positions upon a sustained breakout at 4445.00, targeting 4550.00-4600.00 with a stop-loss below 4375.00.
• Consider short positions only upon a breakout at 4290.00 with confirmation from fundamental factors (hawkish Fed signal or strengthening dollar) and a stop-loss above 4340.00.
• Pay close attention to FOMC minutes and comments from Fed representatives—unexpected signals may trigger sharp movements.

For Medium-Term Investors:

• Take a constructive position, given the weakening dollar and reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes.
• A potential correction to 4214.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) - 4235.00 (50-day EMA) can be used to build long positions while maintaining a positive fundamental backdrop.
• Consider forecasts from major banks: UBS expects gold to rise to 5500.00 by the end of the year, while J.P. Morgan does not rule out a move back to 5000.00 under favorable conditions.

Risk Management:

• Remain cautious ahead of the publication of FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium—volatility may be high.
• Strictly adhere to stop-losses—breakouts of key levels can trigger significant moves.
• Monitor inflation data and comments from Fed representatives, which remain key drivers.
• Keep in mind that rising oil prices amid geopolitical tensions may revive inflationary risks and return hawkish rate expectations from the Fed, limiting gold's growth.

The release was contradictory, although overall it was strong enough for the pound. It was reported that the UK economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, following a growth of 0.6% in the first quarter. The annual GDP growth rate accelerated to 1.2%.

The key driver of growth remains the services sector, which increased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. Significant contributions came from information and communication services, as well as professional and scientific activities. Notably, nearly half of the quarterly increase in GDP was attributed to the information and communication sector. This indicates that the British economy is supported not only by traditional consumer demand but also by the technology segment.

Attention should also be paid to the structure of demand. Consumer spending rose by 0.3%, while business investments increased by 1.7%. The private sector largely drove growth, whereas government consumption decreased by 0.3%. Real GDP per capita increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and by 1.0% year-on-year, signaling some improvement in real economic dynamics.

On the same day, UK GDP growth data for June was released. Following a flat performance in May, the economy unexpectedly grew by 0.3% (while most analysts had forecasted a flat result). However, this dynamic was partly attributed to temporary factors, with increased consumer activity during the World Cup contributing to the figures.

Among the weaknesses of the release are the actual slowdown compared to the first quarter and the very uneven structure of growth. The manufacturing sector showed zero growth in the second quarter, while construction only added 0.3%. Additionally, the decline in government consumption and ongoing issues in industry indicate a lack of widespread economic acceleration.

Nevertheless, GBP/USD traders interpreted the report in favor of the British currency, as it effectively confirmed the resilience of the UK economy and reduced arguments for a faster loosening of Bank of England policy.

In this context, upcoming macroeconomic releases take on special significance for the pound. Strong data will bolster the British currency, as it will reduce expectations of further monetary policy easing—at least in the context of the upcoming central bank meeting. On the other hand, weak data will bring the "dovish" scenario back to the agenda for the English central bank.

Thus, on Tuesday, August 18, key labor market data will be released in the UK. The consensus forecast suggests the unemployment rate will remain at 4.9%, while average wage growth is expected to be 4.5% year-on-year (after a decline to 4.3% in the previous month). This component is particularly interesting for traders, as sustainable wage growth indicates persistent internal inflationary pressure. If the wage indicator meets the forecast level (let alone enters the "green zone"), the pound will receive significant support, even if other release components disappoint.

The next day, on Wednesday, key inflation growth data will be published in the UK. In June, the overall consumer price index decreased to 2.6% year-on-year, reaching a yearly low. However, a rise in the overall CPI to 3.0% is expected in July (with other estimates suggesting a rise to 2.9%). The core index is expected to remain at June's level, that is, at 2.6%. It is worth noting that the BoE has already warned of a likely acceleration in inflation in the second half of the year; according to its forecast, CPI could rise to around 3.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter due to the carryover effect of higher energy prices. Therefore, a July result above consensus would serve as an additional (and quite strong) argument for the pound, as it would confirm the resilience of inflationary pressure.

Finally, on Friday, August 21, retail sales data will be released in the UK. After a 1.0% month-on-month spike in June, a 0.4% corrective decline is expected in July. A weaker result could pressure the pound, as it would cast doubt on the resilience of consumer demand. However, if the figure remains above zero, the pound will be "on a roll": strong sales dynamics will confirm economic resilience, especially in light of positive GDP data.

Thus, despite GBP/USD's confident rise, the pound is currently at a crossroads. If the most bullish scenario plays out (wages above 4.5%, CPI at 3.0%, and "non-zero" retail sales), the pair may test the nearest resistance level at 1.3600 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The technical picture signals a priority for this scenario, as the price on the D1 chart is between the middle and upper Bollinger Band lines and above all Ichimoku indicator lines, forming a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal.

Conversely, weak data could exert significant pressure on GBP/USD, reinforcing "dovish" expectations regarding the BoE's next actions. In such a case, the pair would likely return to the base of the 35-figure— to the support level of 1.3500, where the Tenkan-sen line on the D1 chart intersects.

Recent data presents a mixed picture. On one hand, the eurozone economy shows signs of revival—GDP for the second quarter exceeded expectations, with growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year. At the same time, business activity accelerated in July (the composite PMI was revised to 52.0), and the economic sentiment index rose to 96.9, marking the third consecutive month of improvement.

However, the eurozone economy remains extremely vulnerable to external shocks, and in August, pressure on it has intensified in several areas. This includes unprecedented extreme heat and rising inflationary pressures, which continue to undermine household purchasing power.

A blockade or serious disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would arguably pose the most dangerous scenario for the European economy, which is a net energy importer. According to an ECB study, a geopolitically induced spike in oil prices could reduce eurozone GDP growth by 0.4% in the first year following the shock. If the conflict also affects the gas market, the consequences would be even more severe.

If the situation in the strait escalates, the European economy will face a new wave of stagflationary pressure, which would be an extremely negative factor for the euro.

The ECB faces a dilemma—high inflation persists, necessitating policy tightening, while signs of slowing growth and geopolitical risks call for cautious action. A hike in September is seen as almost certain, and a second increase in 2026 is also likely. Some banks, such as UBS, expect two 25-basis-point hikes before September.

Weak data from the U.S. plays in favor of the euro; however, structural problems in the European economy and its dependence on energy imports create significant risks.

The net short position in euros changed slightly over the reporting week to -$8.52 billion, with the calculated price above the long-term average, suggesting a more likely upward than downward move.

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating after rising in response to weak U.S. labor market data. On the daily chart, the price has settled above the 100-day moving average, which is a positive signal. The main scenario suggests an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.1600 and test the 1.1625/30 area for strength. However, downside risks remain; any negative news regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, rising energy prices, or worsening economic data from the eurozone could trigger a correction down to the support levels of 1.1480/1.1500.