The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade with low volatility on Wednesday. Macroeconomic data again had little to no impact on the pair's movement, which is not surprising—this is the trend we have observed for three consecutive months. Therefore, the business activity indices or the ADP and JOLTs reports are now little more than interesting figures. The market is fully focused on the Iranian conflict, but in a very peculiar way, for which we can thank Donald Trump. The market is now only prepared to react to confirmed information that affects the actual situation in the Middle East, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, and so on. Hundreds of reports about the termination of negotiations, resumption of talks, new ceasefire violations, and imminent agreements are simply ignored by the market. Because this information is either unverified or has no real impact.

For example, what is the point of reacting to another ceasefire violation by Iran and the US if it brings no consequences? In the last two weeks, the parties have fired missiles at enemy positions about five times. What impact has this had? What is the point of reacting to Trump's repeated promises of a forthcoming agreement with Iran if this information also brings no consequences? Trump has been promising a deal for at least several weeks, and yet nothing has changed. What is the point of reacting to potential concessions from Washington or Tehran if such information is unconfirmed and often contradicted by the opposing side within hours?

The market has come to fully realize that Iran will not abandon uranium enrichment, and Washington will not abandon its goal of denuclearizing Iran. The situation is completely deadlocked. Thus, we believe that the conflict in the Middle East will persist for a long time, but the parties will not engage in daily active hostilities. The active phase of the war in February and March showed that the US cannot conquer Iran, that the assassination of Iranian leaders does not lead to regime change, there will be no national revolution, and the US will not succeed in persuading Iran to sign a favorable deal using those methods. As for Iran, it did not initiate this war and has the same right to possess nuclear weapons and develop them as the US does. Therefore, Tehran is certainly not interested in resuming the war.

Consequently, we do not see substantial reasons for a new strong dollar trend. Geopolitics supported the American currency in 2026. Without that support, the GBP/USD pair would already be above the 40 level. However, the dollar has gained some time but has not broken the negative trend that began last year when Trump came to power. Thus, we should not expect a deal now, but rather a shift in market attention from geopolitics back to the economy.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 62 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. On Thursday, June 4, we expect the pair to move within the range bounded by 1.3373 and 1.3497. The upper channel of linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has not formed any signals recently.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3428
• S2 – 1.3367
• S3 – 1.3303

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3489
• R2 – 1.3550
• R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to recover after a 300-pip drop. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the US dollar. However, 2026 is currently looking very positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3550 and 1.3611 can be considered if the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be opened with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306 on geopolitical grounds. The market situation often changes, and it continues to focus predominantly on geopolitical news that lacks uniformity. Given the current weak movements, it is advisable to trade on lower timeframes.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels: These help determine the current trend. If both channels are directed in the same way, it indicates a strong trend.
• Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): This defines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray Levels: target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines): This indicates the likely price channel within which the pair will trade over the next day, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in exactly the same manner on Wednesday as in the past few weeks—showing low volatility, a minimal upward tilt, and movement close to a flat range. Under current circumstances, we wouldn't even focus on the upward slope, as 90% of the current movement is pure flat. Therefore, our conclusions remain the same as yesterday and the day before: the market continues to ignore the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, is unwilling to take risks with any positions, and is waiting for a resolution to the conflict between Iran and the US.

What does "waiting for a resolution" mean? The answer to this question is crucial, as this "resolution" could determine the fate of the dollar in the coming weeks or even months. In our view, the market has simply grown tired of the endless streams of geopolitical information, 90% of which are unverified or meaningless. For instance, it was reported yesterday that Washington is seemingly ready to make concessions on the "nuclear issue," but everyone understands there is no evidence to support this. Iran announced earlier this week that it was halting negotiations with the US; however, Trump intervened to prevent an Israeli attack on Lebanon, which logically suggests that negotiations should resume. Yet there is no information on this or on Iran's current position.

Instead, there are reports of yet another ceasefire violation in the Persian Gulf. The US struck the Iranian island of Qeshm, while Tehran retaliated with strikes on American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Understanding what is happening in the Middle East at present is nearly impossible. The parties to the conflict intermittently strike each other, claim to be in negotiations, report progress, or regress, talk about deals, and then deny any agreements. In this information soup, it is impossible to make sense of anything. Therefore, the market has drawn an obvious conclusion. If Tehran and Washington themselves cannot decide whether they are at war or seeking to sign a peace agreement, let them figure it out first, and then something concrete can be acted upon.

Thus, the market is waiting for such a resolution: either a full-scale resumption of hostilities following failed negotiations or the signing of a peace agreement and further discussions to resolve the crisis. For now, it can be said that there is still no scent of a peace agreement, and neither Iran nor the US wants to restart a full-scale war for understandable reasons. We believe that this form of conflict may continue for weeks, months, or even years. It is evident to everyone that Iran will not abandon its enriched uranium under any circumstances, nor will it relent on uranium enrichment. Moreover, Tehran understands that it is the US that is currently eager to end the war, declare victory, and calmly prepare for the elections. In blunt terms, the initiative is now in Tehran's hands, which is in no rush and does not agree to yet another burdensome deal from Donald Trump under the threat of coercion.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 4 is 55 pips, characterized as "medium-low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1552 and 1.1662 on Thursday. The upper channel of linear regression has shifted upward, indicating a trend reversal toward bullish. In fact, the upward trend for 2025 could have resumed as early as March. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone and formed two "bearish" divergences, warning of a downward correction that is still ongoing.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1597
• S2 – 1.1536
• S3 – 1.1475

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1658
• R2 – 1.1719
• R3 – 1.1780

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, which is presumably a correction within the broader upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, with only geopolitical factors consistently providing support. If the price is below the moving average, short trades can be considered, targeting 1.1552 and 1.1536. Long positions become relevant when the price is above the moving average line, targeting 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to distance itself from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks, demand for the dollar has increased as hopes for peace in the Middle East have weakened. Currently, movements are weak, so it is advisable to trade on lower timeframes.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels: These help determine the current trend. If both channels are directed in the same way, it indicates a strong trend.
• Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): This defines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray Levels: target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines): This indicates the likely price channel within which the pair will trade over the next day, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite sluggishly on Wednesday, despite significant news from the Middle East and overseas. Let's start with the economic data. In the US, the ISM business activity index was published yesterday and exceeded forecasts, following the manufacturing index. As such, the dollar had economic grounds for growth yesterday. Additionally, it was reported later in the evening that Iran had launched a missile strike on Kuwait's international airport, clearly indicating the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East. Kuwait is an ally of the US. Essentially, traders received another answer to the question: "Should we expect a peace agreement between Tehran and Washington anytime soon?" Our response over the past few weeks has been no, as there are no real grounds for such an agreement, but practically daily missile attacks in the Persian Gulf region continue.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend began after breaking the trend line, but in recent weeks, the price has been tightly stuck between 1.3369-1.3377 and 1.3465-1.3480. The upper boundary of this channel could not be breached, so we may soon observe movement towards the lower boundary. Geopolitics remains uncertain, meaning the pound may continue to stay within the sideways channel until the situation clarifies.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one sell trading signal was formed. Just before the European trading session opened, the price bounced off the 1.3465-1.3480 area and then dropped to the Kijun-sen line at 1.3427 by the end of the day. Thus, traders could have secured a profit of 25-30 pips from the short position, which is quite a decent result given the current volatility.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that, in recent years, sentiment among commercial traders has been continually shifting. The red and blue lines, which reflect the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, with non-commercial traders continuing to dominate with... shorts. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for riskier currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, as evidenced by the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors currently take precedence, providing significant support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East cannot be declared resolved, the US dollar may still see potential growth in the future. According to the latest COT report (as of May 26), the Non-Commercial group closed 10,100 buy contracts and 13,000 sell contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 3,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its upward trend amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and strained relations between Iran and the US. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop continues to have little influence on the pair's movements. We do not believe that the dollar can show strong growth without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East; however, the situation is indeed moving towards escalation.

For June 4, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, and 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3477) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3424) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Thursday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is scheduled to speak, and in the US, the jobless claims report will be published. It is unlikely that there will be any significant reactions to either of these events. However, a new escalation in the Middle East may occur. The dollar could continue its upward movement towards the 1.3369-1.3377 area.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may maintain short positions targeting 1.3369-1.3377, as the pair has bounced off the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Long positions will become relevant if there's a rebound from the 1.3369-1.3377 area, targeting 1.3465-1.3480.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Price Levels (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts represents the size of each category of traders' net positions.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade between a group of levels, areas, and lines. Overall, it is not even worth analyzing which levels were breached and which were not. The sideways movement with a slight upward tilt and low volatility is clearly visible. Over the past three weeks, the euro has been trading against the dollar between the areas of 1.1657-1.1666 and the level of 1.1585. Essentially, the movements we observe daily are market noise rather than a reaction to any events. The macroeconomic backdrop remains largely ignored, and the market is frankly tired of geopolitical issues. For example, yesterday, there was no reaction to the quite important ISM services activity index in the US, nor to Iran's new attacks on Kuwait's international airport. The market is disregarding all events, and volatility remains low.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend persists, as the pair has not been able to initiate an upward movement or breach the 1.1657-1.1666 area over the past three weeks. We are currently witnessing a purely flat movement, the completion of which can be judged either below 1.1585 or above the area of 1.1657-1.1666.

In the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one trading signal was formed, but, as one might guess, it was extremely challenging to realize profits from the trade due to weak movement. Throughout the European trading session, the pair struggled to break through the 1.1615-1.1625 area, but during the American session, it did! By the end of the day, the price dropped by 10 pips...

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated May 26. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining due to geopolitical events. Traders have been getting rid of the European currency in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but for a time, the dollar acted as a "reserve currency." However, this process may already be complete.

We still do not see any fundamental factors for the strengthening of the euro, while there are sufficient factors for the decline of the dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but once this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will revert to normal. It may have already expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Currently, the pair has not significantly deviated from the descending trend line that has been breached several times.

The positioning of the red and blue lines in the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-Commercial group decreased by 10,200, while the number of shorts decreased by 6,100. Consequently, the net position fell by 4,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has been trading in a flat range between the level of 1.1585 and the area of 1.1657-1.1666 for three weeks. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, not worsening, and Washington and Tehran can only dream of signing a preliminary agreement at this point. If no new signs of a resumption of war emerge in the Middle East and the memorandum is indeed signed, the dollar may begin to lose ground. However, so far we have not observed either a deal or a resumption of hostilities.

For June 3, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1619) and Kijun-sen line (1.1639). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Thursday, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will give a speech, which could be interesting a week ahead of the central bank's meeting and after the May inflation report, which indicates an acceleration to 3.2%. A retail sales report will also be published. However, we want to remind you that the market is currently ignoring both fundamental and macroeconomic factors equally.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may maintain short positions targeting 1.1585 and 1.1542, as the price has consolidated below the 1.1615-1.1625 area. Long positions can be opened in the event of consolidation above the area of 1.1657-1.1666, targeting 1.1750-1.1760.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Price Levels (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts represents the size of each category of traders' net positions.

And yet, the Australian dollar rang a "warning bell" on Wednesday: almost all components of the key macroeconomic release fell into the red zone and failed to meet expectations. In quarterly terms, GDP volume increased by only 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, while most analysts had forecast a more significant decline to 0.5% (after a 0.8% rise in the previous quarter). This is the weakest result since the first quarter of 2025. Year-on-year, the Australian economy grew by 2.5%, compared to a forecast of 2.7%. It's worth noting that the annual figure had shown an upward trend over the previous five quarters, reaching 2.6% year-on-year, but unexpectedly slowed at the beginning of the current year.

Not only were the "headline " figures disappointing, but the structural elements of the report also showed signs of deterioration across many key components of the economy.

The main issue lies in the quality of growth. Essentially, the Australian economy has been propped up by narrow and largely temporary factors. Specifically, a sharp surge in business investments in equipment was recorded in the first quarter (up to +16% in certain segments). Infrastructure and import-warehouse effects (inventory accumulation, capital-goods imports) also played a role.

At the same time, consumer activity is practically stagnant. Household spending growth was very weak (0.3%), with spending shifting towards essential goods (utilities, rent, food), while discretionary spending (restaurants, leisure, large appliances, and vehicles) plummeted sharply. This indicates a high cost of living and weak real income growth. High interest rates from the Reserve Bank and persistent inflationary pressure are forcing Australians to adopt strict saving measures.

Additional pressure on the report came from external sector dynamics: exports decreased by 1.1%, while imports increased sharply, primarily in equipment and energy-intensive categories. The contribution of net exports was negative, amounting to -0.8 percentage points. This is a critical point, as it signals that economic growth is largely "eaten up" by imports while foreign trade ceases to be a supportive factor and begins to exert a restraining influence.

It's also important to note another structural problem: the continued decline in labor productivity (-0.6%). This means that economic growth is becoming more "expensive": labor costs are rising faster than output (this, among other things, creates internal inflationary pressure).

And perhaps the key point is that formal GDP growth has not been accompanied by an improvement in the population's well-being: on a per capita basis, the Australian economy has been contracting for several consecutive quarters, and the first quarter of the current year is no exception. This means that the average Australian is effectively becoming poorer, and the standard of living is declining despite the nominal growth of the country's economy.

In other words, Australia is (for now) managing to avoid a technical recession; however, the economy's internal structure contains several alarming signals. Economic growth is partly artificial and unsustainable because its main driver is the public sector rather than private businesses or consumers. This trend raises the risks of further slowing growth rates in the second half of the current year.

All of this suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain a wait-and-see position in the coming months, despite rising inflation.

In response to the weak GDP growth report, the AUD/USD pair tested the support level at 0.7150 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart and simultaneously the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). The composite PMI index (from S&P Global) acted as a limiting factor, although it remained in contraction territory (48.7). Most analysts had predicted a more significant decline (to 47.2), so this figure came out in the green zone. The Australian dollar also received background support from Markit's Chinese services sector activity index, which surged to 54.4 (against a forecast increase to 52.3).

However, the AUD/USD pair remains under pressure amid disappointing data on Australian economic growth and rising geopolitical tensions. It is reasonable to consider short positions if sellers manage to push through the support level at 0.7150. The next targets for the downward movement are the levels 0.7120 and 0.7100 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the H4 chart and the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1 chart).

The Polymarket odds reflect only a 22% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened by the end of June. Oil has been rising for the third consecutive day, thereby increasing the risk that inflation in the US will remain at elevated levels. As a result, CME derivatives indicate a 54% chance of a federal funds rate hike in 2026. Interest rate swaps indicate an 85% probability of monetary policy tightening this year.

Market Outlook on Fed Rate Projections

The longer the conflict in the Middle East persists, the higher the risks of this scenario materializing. The US economy can afford higher rates. By the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve had lowered rates due to signs of weakness in the labor market. However, by 2026, the employment situation had stabilized. The number of job vacancies in April was at a two-year high. Investors are eagerly awaiting reports from ADP and the BLS.

According to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, the Fed is currently in a good position. The current level of rates allows it to extend the pause and assess the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and incoming data. However, if inflation continues to accelerate, the central bank will be forced to act.

S&P 500 Dynamics and Global MSCI Excluding US Stocks

Rising geopolitical risks are putting pressure on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair finds support from the consistently record-setting S&P 500 index. Since the beginning of the armed conflict in the Middle East, it has outperformed the MSCI World Index by 10 percentage points. Essentially, this indicates American exceptionalism and should support a rally in the USD index. However, in reality, the successes of the US stock market increase foreign demand for hedging currency risks and limit the potential for strengthening the US dollar.

Nothing is eternal under the sun. It is quite possible that an Iranian attack on Kuwait could trigger a correction in the S&P 500, worsen the global appetite for risk, and increase demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. How much longer can Donald Trump turn a blind eye to Tehran's actions?

Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, bears are attempting to capitalize on the internal doji bar. A break below its lower boundary near the level of 1.1615 will allow for short positions to be formed. If quotes do not return above this level in the near future, the risks of a continued decline toward 1.145 will grow. In such conditions, it makes sense for traders to maintain a focus on selling.

The EUR/GBP pair traded around 0.86376, showing limited fluctuations throughout the day as investors analyze a new batch of revised macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and the UK.

Prices remain stable despite the upward revision to the May Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The HCOB Services PMI was revised to 47.7 from the initial value of 46.4, while the composite PMI was raised to 48.5 compared to the preliminary estimate of 47.5. These data indicate a less sharp contraction in private sector activity than previously expected, although they still confirm the most significant contraction since November 2024.

On the other hand, inflation data continue to support expectations for a more stringent monetary policy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Eurozone in April rose 0.6% after rising 3.4% in March, exceeding analysts' expectations. Year-on-year, producer prices increased by 4.9% compared to the revised figure of 2% from the previous month. On Tuesday, the core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Eurozone rose by 2.5% year-on-year in May, up from 2.2% in April and exceeded the forecast of 2.4%.

Against this backdrop, several representatives of the European Central Bank express a hawkish rhetoric. Olli Rehn from the ECB stated that a rate hike in June may be viewed as a precaution against inflation risks, while Gediminas Simkus emphasized the need for a swift response to prevent entrenched price pressure. Pierre Wunsch also supported the view that arguments for tightening monetary policy remain relevant.

In the UK, PMI data were also revised upward. The S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised to 49.3 from the previous estimate of 47.9, while the composite PMI improved to 49.7 from 48.5. Although both indicators were upgraded, they remain below the 50 mark, indicating the first contraction in business activity in over a year.

However, comments from members of the Bank of England provided some support for the British pound. Megan Greene, a member of the BoE's governing council, noted that she sees increasing reasons for further rate hikes, emphasizing the importance of the speed of response as well as its scale. Earlier, the Governor of the BoE, Andrew Bailey, reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to reducing inflation to the target level of 2%.

The balance of hawkish expectations from both the ECB and the BoE limits directional movements in the EUR/GBP pair, keeping it in a narrow range.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is trading below all significant moving averages, with oscillators indicating a bearish advantage in the market. Bulls need to overcome the 20-day SMA first.

The table below shows the percentage change of the euro against major currencies today. The euro shows the greatest strength against the New Zealand dollar.

Gold prices enter the middle of the week in a highly vulnerable position. On Wednesday, the precious metal continued its decline, consolidating near the weekly low of 4445.00 at the time of this review. XAU/USD is retreating from the resistance zone of 4590.00–4600.00, where prices have repeatedly failed to break through over the last three weeks during attempts to rise above the "round" mark of 4500.00.

Investors are on edge, assessing the renewed escalation of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and growing expectations of a "hawkish" pause from the Federal Reserve, which is exerting significant pressure on the non-yielding asset.

Fundamental Background: Geopolitical Shock and the Fed's Hawkish Turn

Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough that temporarily supported markets at the end of May have been completely erased by a new wave of military escalation in the Persian Gulf.

Key Events of the Last 24 Hours

• US Strikes on Iran: The US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed carrying out "defensive strikes" on the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's Response: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and launched missiles and drones at targets in Kuwait and Bahrain (most were intercepted).
• Escalation in Lebanon: Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have also intensified, expanding the conflict zone.

Despite the latest statements from US President Donald Trump claiming that an agreement to extend the ceasefire and open the strait could be reached "as early as next week," Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a hard stance. He stated that Washington would not lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and any easing of sanctions would only be possible after significant concessions on the nuclear program.

This dynamic of mutual accusations and strikes (along with the lack of diplomatic breakthroughs) instantly returned the geopolitical premium to prices. However, contrary to the logic of a "safe haven," this strengthened the dollar. Rising oil prices and uncertainty have renewed inflation expectations and hawkish rate prospects for the Fed.

Alongside geopolitics, the main driver of pressure remains the Fed's reevaluation of monetary policy expectations. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in nearly a 60% probability of a 25 bps rate hike by the end of 2026.

Key Hawkish Signals This Week

• JOLTs Data: The number of job openings in the US soared to 7.618 million in April (forecast: 6.88 million), the highest level since May 2024. This indicates an overheating labor market.
• Comments from Fed Officials: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that inflation may require action "soon," and the central bank is firmly committed to returning inflation to 2%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also stated that "it is still too early to even think about rate cuts" due to persistent inflation risks.
• 10-Year US Treasury Yields: Yields have settled above 4.40% and rose an additional 0.08% on Wednesday. High yields increase the opportunity costs of holding gold, which does not provide interest income, putting direct pressure on prices. Strong labor market data casts doubt on the need for rate cuts, and the Fed may face challenges in justifying easing policy.

Brief Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the price has confirmed a trend change, forming classic bearish signals on the 4-hour chart for XAU/USD.

The price remains below the 50-, 144-, and 200-period exponential moving averages, indicating a classic sign of continued short-term bearish control.

• RSI (14) is around 44, indicating weak bearish momentum but not oversold, leaving room for further declines.
• OsMA is showing declining histogram bars below the signal (zero) line, confirming that recent attempts at stabilization are losing strength within a broader downward structure.
• Stochastic has "dipped" into the oversold zone and has not yet shown signs of reversal.

On the daily chart, the price stays below the 144-day EMA (4525.00) and the 50-day EMA (4625.00). Only the 200-day EMA (4380.00) is preventing the metal from falling deeper.

The main scenario anticipates continued downward movement. A confident break and consolidation below the key support level of 4380.00 will open the door to 4300.00 (the area of strong institutional demand), and then down to 4255.00 (the 50-day EMA on the weekly chart and the breakdown zone of the mid-term upward trend).

Key Events

Conclusion

Gold is under significant double pressure. The escalation of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices are influencing dollar strength, while the Fed's hawkish stance continues to raise expectations for interest rate hikes.

The current technical picture remains bearish, with the price holding below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart. The market retains its downward structure: each new rise meets selling pressure, and highs are gradually decreasing.

The key zone of 4525.00-4400.00 will be the battleground in the coming days. A technical breakdown below this area will confirm the bearish scenario and open the pathway to 4380.00 and 4300.00. A return above 4525.00 would be the first sign of weakening pressure.

Developments in the Middle East continue to influence risk sentiment and the direction of the USD and gold, while the technical picture favors sellers. Investors should closely monitor Friday's labor market data—it will determine whether the dollar gains enough momentum to break through the 4380.00 level.

At the moment, it is difficult to believe in such a substantial decline of the euro, but the first quarter of 2026 demonstrated that geopolitical developments can dramatically alter market trends.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic three-wave bullish corrective structure. Following the completion of this structure, a new downward trend segment began to form, which, logically, should be impulsive in nature. If this assumption is correct, we can expect a five-wave structure within higher-degree Wave C, with targets below the 1.1400 level.

Are there sufficient fundamental reasons to expect such a strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar? Not conclusively. However, the market is increasingly losing confidence in the prospect of a deal between the United States and Iran, which is supporting dollar buyers.

The EUR/USD pair declined by 30 basis points on Wednesday and is gradually moving toward the formation of a new downward wave, which may be identified as the fifth wave within the current bearish structure. If this interpretation is correct, only one conclusion can be drawn: the market has largely abandoned hopes for a peace agreement between Iran and the United States and is once again shifting toward safe-haven assets and currencies.

The recent decline in the cryptocurrency market indirectly supports this view. Traders are once again reducing risk exposure, as hopes for a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East continue to fade.

I do not even wish to list today's geopolitical headlines. They offer nothing fundamentally new or particularly informative. Every day, traders receive the same collection of conflicting reports or statements that fail to reflect objective reality.

At the same time, there has been very little economic data released today, and the market continues to pay limited attention to macroeconomic indicators. For example, yesterday's Eurozone inflation report was largely ignored despite significantly increasing the likelihood of European Central Bank monetary tightening next week.

Even the prospect of a rate hike in the Eurozone in June, while neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England is expected to raise rates, has provided no meaningful support for the euro. The market is simply ignoring economic factors and remains skeptical about a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Middle East.

As a result, we are seeing a moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is fully consistent with the current wave structure.

What should be expected after the completion of the fifth wave? In my view, at least a three-wave bullish sequence will begin to form, and its strength will once again depend on geopolitical developments. Nothing has changed in that regard.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a broader bullish trend segment (lower chart) and, in the shorter term, within a corrective structure. At present, Wave 5 may be developing as part of Wave C.

The entirety of Wave C, if the current wave count is correct, may ultimately complete its formation well below the 1.1400 level. However, such a significant decline would require substantial support from geopolitical factors. Otherwise, the bearish wave sequence may become truncated and complete slightly below the 1.1600 level.

On the higher time frame, a bullish trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, Wave C is expected to form with targets near 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Once the A-B-C corrective structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in what the market is doing, it is better to stay out of it.
3. Absolute certainty regarding market direction does not and cannot exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

For the second consecutive week, the EUR/USD pair has been attempting to reverse in favor of the euro and resume its upward movement. The bullish trend remains intact, and Bullish Imbalance 13 has not been invalidated. However, it can now be stated with confidence that bulls lack sufficient strength for a new advance.

The current chart structure clearly suggests that the reaction to Bullish Imbalance 13 has been weak and unconvincing, while the reaction to Bearish Imbalance 15 was precise and decisive. At the same time, bears also lack compelling reasons to launch a sustained attack. EUR/USD has effectively been moving sideways for several weeks.

What is the market waiting for? In my view, it is not waiting for anything in particular; rather, it is simply ignoring a large portion of the incoming news flow. In June 2026, geopolitics completely overshadowed all other market themes. At the same time, geopolitical headlines require careful filtering to separate meaningful developments from noise. At present, traders are effectively disregarding nearly all news entering the information space, and for good reason, as none of the recent headlines have materially changed the situation in the Middle East or the prospects for relations between Iran and the United States.

Nevertheless, geopolitical developments will continue to determine both price action and market sentiment in the near term. If Tehran and Washington eventually sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, and make progress in negotiations on the nuclear issue, it will become much easier for bulls to regain momentum, allowing both the euro and the pound to resume their upward trends.

The problem, however, is that the likelihood of such an optimistic scenario appears to be decreasing with each passing day.

Under current conditions, traders can either expect a reaction from Bullish Imbalance 13, which remains the latest bullish pattern within the current bullish impulse, or its eventual invalidation. If the recent decline is viewed as a corrective pullback, it may already have been completed within Imbalance 13.

However, without geopolitical support, bullish traders will struggle to push the market higher, something that has been clearly demonstrated over the past two weeks. If the current move is interpreted as the beginning of a new bearish trend, then traders should expect negotiations to fail and the conflict to escalate once again. In that case, the sell signal formed within Bearish Imbalance 15 would become increasingly relevant.

It is worth emphasizing once again that the U.S. dollar's appreciation between January and March was driven almost entirely by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bearish pressure on EUR/USD quickly faded, and bulls dominated the market for more than a month.

At present, the chances of reaching a comprehensive agreement are declining once again, while the market remains highly skeptical of any reports suggesting that the conflict is close to resolution. More precisely, a deal will likely be signed eventually, but "eventually" is not sufficient to support a strong and sustained rally in EUR/USD.

The overall technical picture remains relatively clear. The bullish trend is still intact, but it desperately requires support. Ideally, that support should come from geopolitics through at least a framework agreement between Iran and the United States, followed by continued negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Without a favorable news backdrop, a renewed advance in the euro appears unlikely.

Economic data released on Wednesday once again failed to attract traders' attention. The only potentially market-moving report was the ISM Services PMI, but earlier in the week the Manufacturing PMI had little impact on sentiment. Other important releases, including Eurozone inflation data, were largely ignored by the market.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has done little to change the broader picture. Structurally and fundamentally, the policies that contributed to the dollar's significant decline last year remain unchanged.

Over the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen as investors seek safe-haven assets, but such support would require continuous escalation in the Middle East. I still do not believe a sustainable bearish trend in EUR/USD is developing. The dollar has received temporary support from geopolitical events, but it remains unclear what factors could sustain a long-term dollar rally.

• Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone
• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (08:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Retail Sales (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

The June 4 economic calendar contains three scheduled events, none of which I consider particularly significant. As a result, the economic backdrop may have little or no impact on market sentiment throughout Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed dramatically three months ago, but the broader trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or completed.

Therefore, bulls may resume their advance in the near future if they receive even modest support from geopolitical developments.

Traders previously had opportunities to open long positions based on signals from Imbalance 12 and the Order Block. The upward movement could eventually resume toward this year's highs, with Bullish Imbalance 13 serving as the key reference zone.

At present, however, it is crucial that bulls maintain market control. For the euro to continue rising without significant obstacles, the Middle East conflict must move toward a durable peace. A breakdown in negotiations, rejection of a framework agreement by either side, or another ceasefire violation could strengthen bearish pressure.

A sell signal has already formed within Bearish Imbalance 15. If the geopolitical situation fails to improve this week, a decline toward 1.1500 will become increasingly likely. Nevertheless, Bullish Imbalance 13 continues to act as a strong support zone.

The GBP/USD pair has continued to trade within Bearish Imbalance 19 for the past two and a half weeks and has so far failed either to invalidate it or to form a sell signal. The chart structure continues to support a bullish advance; however, in that case, Imbalance 19 should be invalidated, and the price should be moving higher rather than remaining range-bound.

This week, Donald Trump once again stated that a deal with Iran could be signed in the very near future. At the same time, the United States and Iran exchanged strikes again, Tehran suspended negotiations with Washington at the beginning of the week, and it remains unclear whether consultations between the parties are still ongoing. The market is in a state of extreme uncertainty and is unwilling to make significant decisions without a clearer understanding of how events in the Middle East will develop in the near future.

Therefore, traders can currently do little more than wait for genuinely important information. It should be noted that Iran continues to insist on its right to use nuclear energy and is also demanding a complete cessation of military operations against itself and its allies.

Overall, the situation in the Middle East is better than it was a few months ago when active hostilities were ongoing. Nevertheless, traders remain concerned that the situation could shift toward renewed escalation. In fact, this is exactly what has been happening over the past two weeks. Last week, the United States carried out two missile strikes against Iranian targets, while Iran responded with strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait. The new week began with the situation repeating itself twice more. The more frequently such exchanges occur, the lower the market's confidence in the prospects for a peaceful agreement.

In my view, the trend remains bullish despite the pair's significant declines earlier this year. At present, the ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still in place and could be extended for another 60 days. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, the nuclear issue has not been resolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations relies almost entirely on statements from Donald Trump. Iran maintains a very different position.

The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. For now, the market still retains some confidence that an agreement can be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited.

The current technical picture is as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a market reaction, whereas Bearish Imbalance 19 did not and is likely to be invalidated. Therefore, the chart structure continues to support further appreciation of the pound. The main task now is to monitor geopolitical developments closely in order to exit long positions promptly if negotiations once again reach a deadlock and the framework agreement remains agreed upon but unsigned.

The economic news flow on Wednesday once again had no impact on market sentiment. The pound continues to trade within Imbalance 19, and neither economic reports nor developments from the Middle East have been able to force traders out of this range.

The broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, from a long-term perspective, there is little reason to expect anything other than continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little in this regard. Geopolitical developments temporarily reminded markets of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging.

The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving toward recession, inflation is rising, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be in a position to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Across the United States, four major protests have recently taken place specifically against Donald Trump, while Jerome Powell's eventual departure could further worsen the outlook for the dollar if the FOMC adopts a more dovish stance under Kevin Warsh.

From an economic standpoint, I see no grounds for dollar appreciation. Only geopolitical developments are capable of supporting the U.S. currency.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

United States

• Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

The economic calendar for June 4 contains only one release, which is unlikely to attract significant market attention. Therefore, the economic backdrop is not expected to influence market sentiment on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The Three Drives pattern warned traders about the beginning of the upward move. Since then, three bullish patterns and three bullish signals have formed, all of which offered trading opportunities.

At present, bulls continue to hold the initiative and have formed a new bullish signal within Bullish Imbalance 18. If geopolitical developments become more favorable, the upward move is likely to continue.

My primary target for the pound remains the 2026 high at 1.3867, while the nearest target is 1.3656.

At this stage, there are no grounds for considering a bearish trend. The only bearish imbalance is close to invalidation, and no new bearish patterns have emerged.

The test of the 1.3452 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The British pound remained under pressure despite an upward revision of the UK Services PMI for May to 49.3. However, despite the improvement, it is important to note that the PMI remains in contraction territory. This means that the services sector, a key driver of the UK economy, continues to face significant pressure. Challenges related to inflation, high borrowing costs, and uncertainty in global markets continue to weigh on the business environment.

Traders will now focus on U.S. labor market data, which traditionally serves as an indicator of the health of the American economy. Today, ADP will release its report on the change in U.S. private-sector employment. This indicator often acts as a leading signal for the official labor market figures, and its result may set the tone for subsequent trading.

In addition, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Services PMI. This indicator, which reflects conditions in one of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy, traditionally has a significant impact on investor sentiment. Strong data will help the U.S. dollar extend its gains against the pound.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3457 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3480 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3480, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a reversal of 30–35 points from that level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected if U.S. data comes in weaker than forecast.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3444 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward 1.3457 and 1.3480 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3444 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target for sellers will be 1.3421, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Pressure on the pound is likely to return today if U.S. data comes in strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3457 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3444 and 1.3421 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1620 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The euro posted a modest decline following the release of Eurozone services PMI data. Although the figures came in slightly better than economists' forecasts, this moderate boost in optimism failed to reverse the broader trend, as the indicator remained below the critical 50-point threshold. This clearly points to continued contraction in business activity within a key sector of the Eurozone economy.

Market attention will now focus on the ADP Employment Change report, which reflects the change in private-sector employment in the United States for May. This indicator often serves as a leading signal for the official labor market data and provides insight into labor market conditions and their potential impact on future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Following the employment report, the ISM Services PMI will be released. Positive momentum or, conversely, signs of slowing activity in this sector could have a noticeable impact on market sentiment and expectations regarding future economic growth.

Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will provide another important angle for analysis. The Treasury Secretary typically addresses fiscal policy, government debt conditions, and international economic relations. His remarks may touch on the budget deficit, taxation, and trade relations, all of which can directly influence the U.S. dollar.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro can be considered when the price reaches 1.1628 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1651. At 1.1651, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a reversal of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected if U.S. data comes in weaker than forecast.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1612 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward 1.1628 and 1.1651 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1612 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if U.S. data comes in stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1628 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1612 and 1.1594 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

Despite services PMI data from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom coming in above economists' forecasts, neither the euro nor the pound posted strong gains. This suggests that, despite some positive signals, the sector remains in a state of contraction. Of particular concern is the fact that weak performance is being observed not only in individual countries but also across the European Union as a whole.

The key factors behind the negative dynamics remain elevated inflation, driven by higher energy and commodity prices, as well as the high probability of further monetary policy tightening. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty related to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global supply chains continues to weigh on sentiment.

Attention now turns to a busy economic calendar, which is expected to bring a significant amount of important data and public remarks. One of the key indicators attracting market attention will be the U.S. ADP Employment Change report for May. This indicator is often viewed as a precursor to the official labor market data and serves as a barometer of labor market conditions and their potential impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Following the employment data, the ISM Services PMI will be released. This index reflects conditions in one of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy, which accounts for a substantial share of GDP.

In addition, public remarks from Federal Reserve officials always attract considerable market attention. Later in the day, FOMC member Michael S. Barr, known for his balanced stance, will share his assessment of current economic conditions and the outlook for monetary policy. His comments may provide further insight into potential changes in the Federal Reserve's strategy regarding interest rates and other policy tools. At the same time, remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will add another important element for market analysis.

Careful assessment of the released data and officials' comments will allow traders to formulate more accurate forecasts and make informed decisions in a challenging market environment.

If the economic data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1630 may lead to a rise toward 1.1655 and 1.1684;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1606 may lead to a decline toward 1.1579 and 1.1555.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3478 may lead to a rise toward 1.3510 and 1.3535;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3440 may lead to a decline toward 1.3410 and 1.3370.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.85 may lead to a rise toward 159.99 and 160.12;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.60 may lead to a decline toward 159.40 and 159.20.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1630 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1605 followed by a return above this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3465 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3432 followed by a return above this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7183 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7160 followed by a return above this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3862 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3839 followed by a return above this level.

Today, Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) continues to decline, once again falling below the $4,450 level and approaching the critically important 200-day SMA, while reaching a new weekly low during recent trading hours. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher for a third consecutive day, increasing inflation risks and reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period.

This is weighing on gold, which does not generate interest income. In addition, geopolitical instability continues to support the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, contributing to capital outflows from the precious metal.

According to the latest reports regarding the Middle East crisis, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, describing the operation as an act of "self-defense." In response, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, although a significant portion of the attacks was intercepted by U.S. and allied air defense systems in the region. At the same time, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified.

Another source of tension is the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran amid disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. This increases the likelihood of further escalation and keeps geopolitical risks elevated. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the removal of sanctions on Iran is not being considered in exchange for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that any sanctions relief would only be possible if Tehran abandons its enriched uranium program.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire regime and the continuation of the blockade until the negotiation process is concluded "one way or another." These developments have contributed to the recovery in oil prices following the monthly low recorded last Friday, strengthening inflation expectations and reinforcing forecasts of tighter monetary policy from major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Additional support for these expectations came from comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack, who stated that the central bank remains committed to returning inflation to the 2% target and may be forced to take further action if price growth fails to slow in the near term. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are assigning a probability of more than 50% to a 25-basis-point rate hike in December.

Elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to support the dollar, placing additional pressure on gold prices.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias. Failure to hold above the 200-day SMA could accelerate the decline toward deeper support levels. If bulls manage to break above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, they will gain an opportunity for further growth. However, as long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears retain the advantage.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish. Bulls will only be able to continue their advance if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement, stop violating the ceasefire terms, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened in the near future. Without these developments, it will be extremely difficult for them to launch a sustained offensive.

Several notable reports were released in both the European Union and the United States on Tuesday. Unfortunately, they once again failed to attract traders' attention, although they allow for several important conclusions. An acceleration in inflation in the Eurozone to 3.2% year-on-year and in core inflation to 2.5% year-on-year gives traders reason to expect tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank. It hardly needs to be said that higher interest rates are generally a bullish factor for a currency, especially if other central banks are not expected to tighten policy. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are highly unlikely to adopt hawkish decisions in June. Therefore, the euro could have been expected to rise yesterday and today, but instead it remains under pressure. Could the JOLTS report have prevented the bulls from launching an attack? The report showed a reading significantly above market expectations, but in my view, the JOLTS data had little to do with the pair's decline. The same can be said about geopolitics, which has been changing direction several times a day in recent weeks. In my opinion, bulls and bears are engaged in a tug-of-war within a limited price range, paying little attention to incoming news and economic data. Trading activity remains extremely low.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade within a horizontal range between the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1667. The market is in no hurry to open new positions or draw firm conclusions. At the moment, I recommend focusing primarily on the hourly chart, as price movements have remained relatively weak in recent weeks. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 10,196 Long positions and 6,109 Short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while over the past nine weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the suspension of military activity in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, compared with 193,000 Short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, large market participants continue to view the euro favorably over the long term. Naturally, various global developments—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has merely been paused rather than concluded. Consequently, in the near term, the euro and the U.S. dollar will be driven not by Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor by economic data, but by developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Services PMI (07:55 UTC).
• Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 3 contains four events, with the U.S. releases being the most noteworthy. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1682 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1578. The first target has already been reached. New short positions may be considered following another rebound from the 1.1682 level. Long positions may be opened following a rebound from the 1.1578 level, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1682.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical developments to launch a sustained advance. The most recent completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Geopolitical developments have recently provided support to bulls; however, the prospects for reaching an agreement between Iran and the United States are once again fading rapidly. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after a breakout above the May 25 high.

The news backdrop shifted every few hours on Tuesday. Economic releases favored the bears, as the U.S. JOLTS job openings figure for April came in above market expectations. However, this report was released relatively late in the day, and traders showed little activity beforehand. Meanwhile, Donald Trump managed to prevent a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Following talks with Israel, he reportedly persuaded the country not to carry out strikes against Lebanon or deploy troops there, actions that would have prompted Iran to suspend negotiations with the United States. This morning, the U.S. President stated that negotiations are continuing and that an agreement could be reached in the near future, though he could provide no guarantees. According to Trump, Iran is a large country, and negotiations with it remain extremely difficult. I do not attribute the morning strengthening of the U.S. dollar to geopolitical developments, as market sentiment has been changing as frequently as geopolitical headlines in recent days. The current decline may end just as quickly as it began.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has returned to the 1.3482–1.3514 resistance level. Another rebound from this zone would once again favor the U.S. dollar and support a moderate decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements are likely to remain driven primarily by geopolitical developments rather than technical analysis in the near term. Technical analysis should be viewed only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became slightly less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,097, while the number of Short positions declined by 13,006. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 58,000 versus 119,000 contracts. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict. However, recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be easy or quick.

Economic Calendar for the United Kingdom and the United States:

• United Kingdom – Services PMI (08:30 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 3 contains three events, two of which can be considered significant. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Long positions may be considered following a rebound from the 1.3408 level, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. Traders may also consider buying the pair if it closes above the 1.3454–1.3466 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

The company on Wednesday said it will offer issuers and acquirers additional settlement options, including intraday settlements, weekend and holiday processing, and blockchain-based settlements using regulated stablecoins. The new capabilities will operate alongside existing fiat processes and are intended to give financial institutions greater flexibility in managing liquidity.

Initially, Mastercard will support settlements in USDC from Circle; PYUSD, USDG, and USDP from Paxos; and RLUSD from Ripple and SoFiUSD — on the Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Base, Arbitrum, and XRPL blockchains.

Behind the technical detail of the announcement lies a fundamental shift in the logic of global payments. Card transactions are authorized instantly, but settlements between banks and payment providers frequently occur later, in batches, and are constrained by banking hours. Mastercard's new scheme moves the network toward a model of continuous availability, where money is transferred and settled around the clock — without weekends, holidays, or time windows.

"The next phase of stablecoin adoption is about real-world utility, especially in settlement, where timing and liquidity matter most," Raj Dhamodharan, vice president for blockchain and digital assets at Mastercard, said. The company is effectively acknowledging that stablecoins have evolved beyond instruments for crypto trading and are becoming bona fide settlement assets for banks, payment firms, and asset managers.

Trading recommendations:

Buyers of BTC are targeting a return to $67,700, a level that would open a direct path to $69,500 and then to $71,400. A breach above $71,400 would indicate attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $65,800. A return of the price below that area could quickly drag Bitcoin toward $64,300. The farther target is $62,600.

As for Ethereum, a clear hold above $1,901 would open a direct route to $1,963. The farther target is the high near $2,026. A break above that level would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,827. A fall below that point could rapidly send Ethereum toward $1,783, with a deeper target at $1,724.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Dynamics of S&P 500 winning streaks

The breathtaking 36% surge in tech stocks from March highs has overshadowed weakness in energy and other names and produced a 16% rally in the S&P 500 through April–May. However, more than 12 percentage points of that divergence are attributable to just a dozen issuers. And FOMO, or Fear of Missing Out, is not confined to retail crowds; professional investors are acting the same way.

Chipmakers are leading the charge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has jumped by about 90% from this year's local lows. New S&P records were driven by Marvell Technology and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Marvell rallied after NVIDIA's CEO Steven Jen said it could be the next company to join the $1 trillion market-cap club. Hewlett Packard Enterprise surprised investors with a strong Q1 report.

Dynamics of skeptics vs optimists in the US equity market

While euphoria grips US equities, Wall Street trading advisors are split on the S&P 500's outlook. Some who previously advised buy-and-hold are turning bearish. The share of pessimists is materially higher than on the eve of the dot-com bubble burst. For some, that's a worrying signal; others see it as evidence the rally can continue — the market has yet to reach its ceiling.

S&P bulls are undeterred by geopolitics or by rising odds of Fed tightening in 2026, currently priced in at 56% following hawkish FOMC comments. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said it makes sense to keep rates on hold amid uncertainty, but if inflation accelerates further, the central bank will have to act.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has cut the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening from 60% to 22% over the past 10 days. Geopolitics continues to weigh on other asset classes, but equities are ignoring it for now. How long that will last remains the key question.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart remains unchanged: the broad index is confidently moving toward the previously announced long target of 7,700. The buy-the-dip strategy is working like clockwork. There is no case yet to abandon it — the bias remains for a continued rally.

Global equity markets are back at record highs. The MSCI All-Country World index added 0.1% to a record level, Asian bourses rose by about 0.7%, joining Wall Street at new peaks. The main engine remains semiconductors: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed by nearly 6% to a record high, and Asian chip makers followed suit, hitting fresh peaks. Europe is set to open slightly lower, however, geopolitics is reasserting itself.

The AI narrative continues to dominate with extraordinary force. Reuters reports that SpaceX plans an IPO at a $75bn valuation priced at $135 per share. This is another sign of how strong investor appetite for tech is right now. Traders are ignoring concerns about stretched valuations, betting instead on continued corporate profit growth and hopes for a geopolitical settlement.

That said, oil above $97/bbl is a reminder that the settlement is not yet a done deal. US-Iran talks have stalled again, hostilities in the Middle East have resumed, and the market is in a state of cognitive dissonance: equities at records, oil elevated, gold down near $4,465 under pressure from inflation expectations and high rates. Bitcoin slipped to around $67,000.

Yesterday's US labor market data bolstered bulls. The report showed that job openings jumped to a near-two-year high in April and layoffs declined. This signals that the labor market remains resilient despite the energy shock. Today's ADP report is expected to be fairly strong. The week's climax will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 4.46% — the first of three employment reports this week reinforced the view that the next move under Fed chair Kevin Warsh is more likely to be an interest rate hike than a cut.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen is trading near the psychologically important 160 per dollar level, a break above which typically triggers expectations of intervention by Japanese authorities. Traders are reluctant to push the pair higher, mindful that the Bank of Japan and the finance ministry are watching closely.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,607. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,639. Maintaining control above $7,659 would further cement buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,574 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,547 and open the way to $7,518.

The news backdrop yesterday was especially convoluted. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a temporary peace agreement with Iran, contradicting Iranian media reports of a suspension in negotiations due to hostilities in Lebanon. However, almost simultaneously, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain—these were intercepted or failed en route—while US forces struck new targets on Qeshm Island.

It is clear that the metal remains in a downtrend, indicating instability in sentiment—and this is not accidental. Since the beginning of the war, gold has lost about 15% and moves in inverse correlation with oil: rising energy prices amplify inflation expectations, pushing rates upward and pressuring the non—interest—bearing metal.

Considering that rates in the US are certain to rise by the end of the year—given that the recently published data on the US labor market showed a surge in job openings to a nearly two-year high—all of this strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated outright that the central bank may soon need to take action against heightened inflation. The higher the rates, the lower the value of gold.

Silver lost 0.1% to trade at $75 per ounce. Platinum remained stable, while palladium gained 0.2%.

Regarding the current technical situation for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow them to target $4,546, above which breaking through will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be around $4,607. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,432. If they succeed, a range breakdown will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,372, with the prospect of a further decline to $4,304.

There are ample reasons for the increase. Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain—these were either intercepted or destroyed en route—while US forces struck back at a command center on Qeshm Island. Kuwait has suspended flights at its international airport after an Iranian drone damaged a passenger terminal. All of this occurs against the backdrop of Trump's statements expressing optimism about a soon-to-be-finalized agreement—alongside simultaneous reports from Iranian media about the suspension of negotiations due to hostilities in Lebanon. The market is receiving conflicting signals and responding to the most tangible—escalation.

A fundamentally significant detail emerged yesterday evening. According to ABC News, Trump is demanding that Iran put its nuclear concessions in writing as part of a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities. Prior to this, Tehran had only offered verbal assurances regarding various conditions. This requirement significantly complicates the negotiation process—obtaining written commitments regarding Iran's nuclear program is politically much more challenging than securing verbal assurances, which explains why an agreement that seemed imminent just a week ago has still not been signed.

It is also noteworthy that supply shortages continue to mount. According to the American oil industry, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.8 million barrels last week. If the Department of Energy's official data confirms this figure, it will mark the sixth consecutive reduction. All of this indicates that normalization of flows is still far off, and risks are skewed toward rising prices—especially considering the approaching third quarter with its seasonally high demand for energy resources.

Regarding the current technical situation in the oil market, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow them to target $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest goal will be around $110.80. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $92.54. If they succeed, breaching this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing oil down to a low of $86.50, with the prospect of a further decline to $81.40.

Meanwhile, the US securities regulator has made a statement that would have been hard to imagine two years ago. In the SEC's strategic plan draft for the fiscal years 2026–2030, digital assets have been singled out as a distinct strategic objective for the first time.

The regulator has directly acknowledged that the growth of digital assets is outpacing the existing regulatory framework and has set the goal of creating a solid regulatory basis for digital assets and blockchain technologies through a rational, consistent, and principled approach. The document is capped by the thesis from SEC Chairman Paul Atkins: "Blockchain and crypto asset technologies have the potential to revolutionize America's financial infrastructure." Coming from the head of a regulator long associated with strict enforcement actions against crypto, this sounds like a 180-degree turnaround.

Among the specific areas of focus mentioned by the SEC are tokenized offerings and blockchain financial infrastructure as areas where the regulator aims to support capital formation within the legislative framework. Storage, trading, and staking services are also highlighted, which is very positive for the further development of the crypto industry.

As for intraday trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $67,600, targeting a rise to the level of $69,500. At $69,500, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be considered from the lower boundary at $66,600 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back up towards $67,600 and $69,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $66,700, targeting a decline to $64,900. At $64,900, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy back on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can also be considered from the upper boundary at $67,500 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $66,600 and $64,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,876, targeting a rise to the level of $1,903. At $1,903, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be considered from the lower boundary at $1,852 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $1,876 and $1,903.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,852, targeting a decline to $1,802. At $1,802, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy back on the pullback. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be considered from the upper boundary at $1,876 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $1,852 and $1,802.

The test of the price level at 159.79 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Yesterday's news that Iran has suspended negotiations with the US due to breaches of the ceasefire led to a rise in the US dollar. Markets, spooked by another escalation of regional tensions, sought refuge in traditionally safer assets, and the dollar once again led the move.

Today, financial markets eagerly await the speech from the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda. This event could be a key moment that significantly impacts the future direction of the country's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates. Analysts worldwide are closely monitoring every word to predict what steps the Bank of Japan will take in light of current economic trends.

The last few months have been marked by uncertainty about inflation indicators and economic growth in Japan. Governor Ueda, known for his cautious approach, is likely to present a balanced assessment of the situation, considering both domestic and global factors. Special attention will be given to whether he provides clear signals about the possibility of further monetary policy tightening, as the yen has been in need of strengthening, and recent interventions have not yielded noticeable results.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.98 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.35 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.35, I intend to exit my positions and sell back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.94 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.98 and 160.35.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.84 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.49 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.98 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.84 and 159.49.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.