The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year, but the wave structure now looks rather ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest and smallest wave structures to make a short-term forecast, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, a classic five-wave impulsive structure with an extended third wave can be identified. If this is indeed the case, then this structure has been completed, and a corrective formation of at least three waves is currently underway. We have already seen three waves, so the market is likely to form at least one more corrective wave in the near future. Future developments will depend on geopolitics: either the correction becomes more complex, or a new downward trend segment begins.

On Friday, EUR/USD rose by about 30 basis points, but that was the full extent of the day's movement. Volatility remained minimal, and the market still shows little willingness to trade amid complete geopolitical uncertainty. Throughout the week, the focus has been on the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations, and the likelihood of a deal—not because there is nothing else to discuss. For instance, the UK released important unemployment and inflation data this week, PMI figures for April were published (some of which were surprising), and Christine Lagarde spoke twice. However, all of this has little impact while the market remains focused solely on geopolitics.

Today it was reported that Iran's Foreign Minister is heading to Islamabad. For what purpose? Most likely for negotiations. At present, there is no confirmation that a U.S. delegation led by J.D. Vance is also heading to Pakistan's capital. However, it is reasonable to assume that negotiations are the main reason for such a visit. That said, it is too early to be optimistic. A second round of talks may take place over the weekend, but the outcome remains highly uncertain, and the chances of a lasting agreement are low. Washington and Tehran continue to exchange demands and ultimatums, creating the appearance of willingness to reach peace while showing no real intention to compromise. Therefore, it is quite possible that the next round of negotiations will also fail.

Conclusions

Based on this EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the short term it is in a corrective phase. The corrective wave structure appears largely complete and could only become more complex and extended if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves. Otherwise, a new downward wave sequence may begin from current levels. A corrective wave has already formed, and further movement will depend on the outcome of the second round of negotiations between Iran and the United States.

On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely typical, as corrective waves vary in size—for example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such variations do occur. It is important to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than rigidly labeling every wave. In the near term, the trend may reverse.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

What is needed for the pound to resume its growth? First, negotiations in Islamabad must take place. Second, there must be at least some progress. Third, the market must believe in a resolution of the Middle East situation. These three factors could support bulls in the near term. We can see that economic reports are currently being ignored by the market, so the focus remains on geopolitics. It was reported today that Iran's foreign minister has arrived in Islamabad. However, no details are available, so such news should be treated with caution. It may turn out that the visit is for unrelated matters, that the U.S. delegation did not arrive, or even that the report is inaccurate.

The latest rise in the pound began with a "Three Drives Pattern." Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, and the trend remains bullish. At present, the ceasefire is quite fragile, and the parties to the conflict have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume fighting. Talks may restart this week, but the conflict could also reignite. The Strait of Hormuz remains under dual blockade, while Tehran and Washington have been unable to agree on the next round of negotiations. In fact, as of Friday, nothing has changed for about a week. Both sides verbally express a willingness to reach a deal, but no real steps have been taken.

The "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart by a triangle, allowed bulls to launch their advance. A second reaction occurred at imbalance 16, but second reactions are typically weaker than the first. The pair also performed a liquidity grab above the February 26 high, and together these factors triggered a corrective pullback, which may end at imbalance 19. Therefore, a new bullish signal may form soon, or the bullish setup could be invalidated, opening the way for bearish pressure.

Friday's economic news flow once again provided opportunities for active trading. It became known that UK retail sales in March increased more than expected, marking at least the fourth positive report from the UK this week. Given that the pound declined for most of the week, it reinforces the view that economic data is being ignored by the market.

In the United States, the overall backdrop still suggests that, in the long term, little supports dollar strength. Even the conflict between the U.S. and Iran does not fundamentally change this. Geopolitics temporarily reminded markets of the dollar's safe-haven status for about two months, but structurally, the outlook remains challenging. The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—the Federal Reserve is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, there have been several large-scale protests across the U.S. against Donald Trump. From an economic perspective, there are no clear reasons for sustained dollar growth.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On April 27, the economic calendar contains no significant events. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a bullish signal. The price performed liquidity grabs from bullish swings on March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, yet bears did not launch a decisive attack in either case. This is another positive sign for the pound—market sentiment remains bullish.

Therefore, under current conditions, despite geopolitical risks, the upward movement is likely to continue. Most likely, the euro will also continue to rise. The target for the pound is the 2026 high. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered a corrective pullback, but a reaction to imbalance 19 may provide traders with a new buy signal.

In the current circumstances, traders can only wait for the price to react to imbalance 13. There are no other clear buying zones at the moment, and the trend is still considered "bullish." Therefore, the focus remains primarily on buy signals. The last buy signal from imbalance 12 worked perfectly, with the euro gaining around 270 points. There are currently no bearish patterns, so sell signals are neither expected nor considered.

It is worth noting that all of the U.S. dollar's growth over the past one and a half to two months has been driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately retreated and bulls rushed in. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile but intact, despite the failed negotiations last Saturday and the cancellation of talks on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the break of important trend-forming lows. The price movement over the past two months could evolve into a bearish trend if geopolitics deteriorates further. However, markets often price in the most pessimistic scenario in advance, trying to anticipate the most extreme developments. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

The overall chart picture is currently clear. First, the price showed no reaction to imbalance 11. Second, it reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which represents a zone of interest for future buy trades as well as a support area for the euro.

The news background on Friday was extremely weak, so traders ignored reports from Germany and the United States without hesitation. On Thursday, they also ignored PMI data released across several countries, as well as important reports on unemployment and inflation in the United Kingdom. Thus, even if geopolitics is not the sole driver of the market right now, it still plays a major role.

There are still many reasons for bulls to remain active in 2026, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the U.S. currency may occasionally strengthen due to risk aversion, but this factor requires ongoing escalation in the Middle East, which is unsustainable. Just two weeks of pause allowed the euro to recover by 60%. There are no other strong supporting factors for the dollar. I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will sustain bearish momentum in the long term?

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Consumer Confidence Index (06:00 UTC)

On April 27, the economic calendar contains only one minor event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday is likely to remain very weak.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. The news background shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, bulls may well continue their advance in the near term, unless geopolitics suddenly turns toward renewed escalation.

Bulls had the opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, and the upward movement may continue toward the yearly highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which may soon provide another bullish signal. For uninterrupted euro growth, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward lasting peace, which is not currently the case. However, bears also lack new reasons to attack. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis.

The test of the 159.74 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 12 points.

Going forward, developments will depend less on U.S. macroeconomic data and more on the situation in the Middle East. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, along with inflation expectations data, will serve as a kind of indicator of the U.S. economic situation, but they are unlikely to significantly change the balance of power in the USD/JPY pair. On the other hand, if traders see signs of sustained economic growth and hints of possible tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy, demand for the dollar could increase. This may lead to the USD/JPY pair strengthening above the 160 level.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.79 (green line on the chart), with a target at 160.00 (thicker green line). At 160.00, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back). Growth in the pair today may occur if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.70 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward 159.79 and 160.00 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.70 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 159.43, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return today if positive news emerges from the Middle East.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.79 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.70 and 159.43 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.

In early April, a number of indicators — despite their different natures — unanimously signaled persistent fragility in the global economic system. The dollar is strengthening its role in international payments, the oil market is being driven higher by geopolitics as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faces real problems, and crypto assets remain a source of volatility — a point underscored by Tesla's write-down of its Bitcoin holdings. At the same time, tech companies continue to double down on ecosystem expansion: Apple is accelerating plans for smart home and wearable devices, laying the groundwork for future product drivers.

Dollar gains ground in international payments

In March, the US dollar noticeably increased its share of international transactions. Its share of SWIFT payments rose to a record 51.1% versus 49.2% in February. The data, published Thursday by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), reaffirm the dollar's status as the world's primary trade currency.

This result is the highest since a methodology revision by the Belgian consortium in 2023. It essentially reflects sustained demand for dollars under heightened uncertainty, especially amid the ongoing US–Iran conflict in the Middle East.

Dollar strength is unfolding against a backdrop of geopolitical turbulence that has been affecting markets since late February, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a global sell-off in risk assets, a sharp rise in oil prices and a flight to the dollar as a safe haven, according to Bloomberg.

As Bloomberg notes, March currency markets were "extremely volatile." The dollar's one-month implied volatility hit a ten-month high in March, though swings later moderated as investors priced in the possibility of ceasefire talks and reassessed risk scenarios.

The euro loses share, the yuan rises, but remains below record highs. Against this backdrop, the euro — still the second most used currency in SWIFT transactions — saw its share fall: in March it dipped to roughly 21% from 22.8% in February. Next in share are the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan and the Canadian dollar. The yuan's share of SWIFT flows rose to 3.1% in March but remains below its 2024 peak.

Key takeaways The message is clear: the rise of the USD share in SWIFT to 51.1% signals continued elevated demand for the dollar in international settlements even amid high volatility. The euro's declining share shows capital and payment flows shifting toward the dollar as a relatively more "predictable" asset amid geopolitical risk.

For traders, this dynamic may mean higher FX market activity: with ongoing uncertainty around the Middle East, the dollar is likely to remain in focus, and volatility can create entry opportunities.

Market note: the trading instruments mentioned in the article are available on InstaForex. To avoid missing profitable market moves, open an account on the platform and, for greater convenience, install the mobile app to manage trades anytime, anywhere.

Oil rises for the fifth day straight: Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed

On Friday, oil prices continued to climb: both major benchmarks rose more than 1% amid the de facto halt of commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of meaningful diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran.

According to the Economic Times, in early Asian trading, Brent futures rose 1.17% while WTI gained 1.12%. The rally has accelerated over the past few days: on Thursday, Brent jumped more than 3% and closed above $105/bbl.

Reminder: the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important sea routes, previously handling about 20% of daily oil and LNG shipments. The situation deteriorated sharply after Iran closed the strait at the end of February in response to US and Israeli air strikes.

On April 18, Iran reinstated full restrictions after a brief reopening that lasted less than 24 hours. Since then, the strait has been under a regime Tehran describes as "strict management and control" by the armed forces.

Escalation continued this week. On Wednesday, Iran attacked at least three commercial ships in the strait, hours after Trump announced the extension of an open-ended ceasefire with Iran. The US has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports.

An Iranian negotiator said Tuesday that restoring navigation through the strait was "unrealistic" amid what he described as "open violations of the ceasefire" by the US and Israel. Trump responded by saying his decisions are keeping the strait closed and arguing that reopening would allow Iran to earn "$500 million a day."

Key conclusions As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic and diplomatic signals fail to reassure the market, oil prices will keep upward momentum.

Traders can exploit the situation by monitoring futures dynamics and price reactions to news on regional restrictions, changes in shipping, and official statements.

Tesla keeps all 11,509 Bitcoin and records $173 million impairment

Tesla said on Wednesday that in the first quarter of 2026, it did not change its crypto portfolio: the company retained all 11,509 Bitcoin it held at the start of the period. The automaker recorded an impairment loss of $173 million after taxes. The write-downs were triggered by a decline in the cryptocurrency's price: over the quarter, Bitcoin fell by roughly 22%.

According to the income statement, Tesla made no Bitcoin transactions during the first quarter—there were no purchases or sales of digital assets.

The impairment reflects Bitcoin's price movement: the price fell from about $90,000 at the start of the year to around $68,000 by the end of March. As a result, the carrying value of Tesla's digital assets declined from roughly $1.008 billion to $786 million. The total drop amounted to about $222 million before tax adjustments.

The company treats cryptocurrency as an intangible asset with an indefinite useful life. Valuation is performed at fair value, which is tied to exchange prices.

Despite the sizable impairment, it was a relatively small item in Tesla's overall results. For Q1, the company reported revenue of $22.39 billion — up 16% year-on-year. GAAP operating income was $941 million, and free cash flow was $1.44 billion.

Non?GAAP earnings per share, excluding one-offs, were $0.41. That beat analysts' expectations and, according to reports, supported after-hours share gains.

Key takeaways

Tesla confirmed it held steady on Bitcoin in Q1 2026: 11,509 coins remained on the balance sheet, and no trading was needed to reflect market moves in the financials. The drop in the cryptocurrency's price led to a $173 million after-tax impairment — an important reminder of digital?asset volatility and accounting revaluation risk.

Traders may want to watch similar corporate events: changes in the value of Bitcoin held by companies with large holdings often affect short-term market sentiment and can amplify price moves.

Apple accelerates home and wearables ecosystem: Bloomberg lists six new product directions

According to Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman, Apple is developing work in six major product directions that could significantly expand its device lineup — from wearables to home automation.

In an interview on the TBPN tech podcast, Gurman consolidated previously published details and outlined the most complete picture to date of the company's hardware plans ahead of a leadership transition.

Gurman singled out a smart home display known in the industry as "HomePad." He believes this device is closest to market launch. The display is expected to have a roughly seven-inch touchscreen and an A18 chip. Significant emphasis is expected on deep integration with Apple Intelligence and Siri.

According to earlier reporting by Gurman, HomePad and several other home products — including an updated Apple TV and HomePod mini — have long been sitting in warehouses, but their release was delayed while updated Siri software was finalized. Current projections put HomePad's likely unveiling at the September iPhone 18 event.

A second major item is a security camera with the internal code name J450. Gurman says its release is planned for this year. The device is described as a small, portable sensor focused on home security, expected to include face recognition and infrared sensors.

The camera is envisioned not only as a surveillance device but also as a component of home automation. Use cases Gurman mentions include turning off lights in empty rooms and playing music tailored to a specific family member.

He also reports Apple may launch a whole line of cameras, possibly including a video doorbell with Face ID.

Key takeaways

The market gets a clear signal: Apple is betting on expanding its ecosystem beyond smartphones and laptops, strengthening smart home and security segments while accelerating wearables and household devices.

HomePad looks like the most likely near?term product launch, and the J450 security camera is one of the key releases "this year" that could set the tone for a broader product line.

If you want to trade on market moves driven by tech sector news, note that the instruments mentioned in the article are available on InstaForex. Open a trading account on the platform, and for greater convenience, download the company's mobile app.

Projects such as Lido, Golem, Mantle, and many others joined the effort. They have already raised 43 500 ETH. This coordinated action demonstrates the growing maturity and interdependence of the decentralized finance ecosystem. When one of the key protocols, Aave, faced serious liquidity problems due to external events, other significant players pooled resources to support it.

The move by Lido, Golem, Mantle, and others underscores the value of solidarity in the crypto industry, where the security and stability of a single participant can directly affect the entire system. After the initiative was announced, outflows from Aave stopped. Recall that in recent days funds worth tens of billions of dollars flowed out of the protocol.

The current situation shows that a timely and decisive community response can effectively stabilize conditions and restore investor confidence. Demonstrating a readiness to provide mutual support sends an important signal to all market participants and strengthens confidence in the resilience of the DeFi space as a whole.

Recall that hackers breached the KelpDAO protocol and withdrew 116 500 ETH, roughly $293 mln. Although this incident is serious, it also highlighted the importance of proactive security measures and rapid threat response. The DeFi United initiative is a direct reaction to the aftermath of that attack, demonstrating decentralized protocols' ability to self-regulate and to collectively resolve problems that arise during their development.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers now target a return to $78,700, which opens a direct road to $80,900, and from there the market would be within reach of $83,100. The most distant target stands at the high near $85, 600, and a breach of that level would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In case of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at $76,800. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $75,000. The furthest downside target would be the $73,100 area.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,371 opens a direct road to $2,459. The most distant target stands at the high near $2,575, and a breach of that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of an Ether decline, I expect buyers at $2,295. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,228. The furthest downside target would be the $2,162 area.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

The test of the 1.3472 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 12 points.

Ahead of key macroeconomic data releases, the market has paused in anticipation. The U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, along with inflation expectations data, will serve as a litmus test for assessing the state of the U.S. economy and, consequently, a determining factor for the future direction of the dollar. Positive consumer sentiment, reflecting confidence in future economic conditions, may signal stronger consumer activity. At the same time, inflation expectations are equally important. Moderate growth in inflation expectations, within the Federal Reserve's target range, may be interpreted as a sign of a healthy economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3492 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3514 (thicker green line). At 1.3514, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back from the level). Growth in the pound today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3477 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward 1.3492 and 1.3514 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3477 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 1.3456, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move back). Pressure on the pound may return today if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3492 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3477 and 1.3456 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.

The test of the 1.1690 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair did not manage to develop a significant upward move.

The releases expected in the second half of the day include the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report as well as inflation expectations data. If the economic figures come in favorable, a quick recovery in demand for the U.S. dollar can be expected. These macroeconomic indicators can influence the trajectory of the dollar, but only if the data significantly deviates from economists' forecasts. Consumer confidence reflects how confident U.S. citizens are in the current economic situation, their willingness to spend, and, consequently, support economic growth. Inflation expectations carry similar weight. Stronger-than-expected data may trigger increased interest in the dollar, while weak figures could lead to its decline.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1698 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1716. At 1.1716, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after positive news from the Middle East.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1684 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward 1.1698 and 1.1716 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1684 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1660, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return today if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1698 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1684 and 1.1660 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or closing positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you are not using proper money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Next, data on the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations are expected. In addition, the market will monitor developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. If the data comes in strong, demand for the dollar will quickly return.

It is worth noting that the above macroeconomic indicators have a significant impact on the dynamics of the U.S. currency. Consumer sentiment reflects Americans' confidence in the economy, their willingness to spend, and consequently to stimulate economic growth. High index readings typically indicate stability and positive expectations, which in turn support demand for dollar-denominated assets. At the same time, inflation expectations play an equally important role. If consumers expect rising prices, this may prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, including raising interest rates.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1695, targeting 1.1720 and 1.1750
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1680, targeting 1.1650 and 1.1620

For GBP/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3495, targeting 1.3515 and 1.3545
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3460, targeting 1.3446 and 1.3416

For USD/JPY:

• Buy on a breakout above 159.83, targeting 160.02 and 160.24
• Sell on a breakout below 159.60, targeting 159.36 and 159.13

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 1.1697 and a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 1.1672 and a return to this level

For GBP/USD:

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 1.3490 and a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 1.3455 and a return to this level

For AUD/USD:

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 0.7142 and a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 0.7115 and a return to this level

For USD/CAD:

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 1.3705 and a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 1.3675 and a return to this level

The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating near yesterday's low, trading around 1.3466. This level is slightly above the nearly two-week low recorded the day before. Spot prices remain under pressure and appear vulnerable to further decline after pulling back from the psychological level of 1.3600, which marked a more than two-month high, amid a strengthening U.S. dollar.Despite the temporary extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, investor sentiment remains negative due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, driven by a lack of progress in peace negotiations caused by the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Moreover, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reduces the chances of a stable de-escalation. This may further reinforce the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency and play a key role in limiting gains in GBP/USD.

On the other hand, ongoing disruptions in energy supplies through strategically important waterways are keeping oil prices elevated, which impacts global inflation. This could force major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to adopt a more hawkish stance. These prospects may provide additional support to the dollar and strengthen the bearish outlook for GBP/USD.

Nevertheless, expectations of a Bank of England rate hike have increased following Thursday's UK PMI data, which came in above forecasts. Traders are currently pricing in around 60 basis points of monetary tightening by the end of 2026 and a 70% probability of a rate hike in June. This is preventing market participants from taking aggressive bearish positions on the pound and is helping to limit the downside in GBP/USD.

Today's UK economic data, particularly core retail sales, had little impact on the pound. The market's focus has now shifted to geopolitical developments, which could increase volatility in global financial markets and create significant trading opportunities for GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, the pair has managed to hold above key moving averages, with the 100-day SMA providing support. The next support may come from the confluence of the 50-, 20-, and 200-day SMAs around the psychological level of 1.3400. A failure to hold this area would give bears the upper hand. Resistance is seen around 1.3480, where the 9-day EMA is located. A break above this level would bring the 1.3525–1.3530 level into focus on the way toward the 1.3600 psychological level.

The wave situation on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke through six previous peaks, while the new downward wave has not yet come close to the last low. A two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently bullish. In the near term, the geopolitical backdrop may worsen again, which would give bears more strength and confidence. However, breaking the bullish trend would require two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low.

On Thursday, the economic backdrop made every effort to please traders, but they once again showed a lukewarm reaction to economic news. The European block of PMI data can be interpreted in different ways. For example, business activity indices in the services sectors of Germany and the EU fell to 46.9 and 47.4 points in April, respectively. It is worth noting that in recent years, the services sector has been the main driver supporting economic activity and the overall Eurozone economy. Industrial production has long been facing serious problems. At the same time, manufacturing PMI figures showed fairly solid readings, not worse than forecasts: 51.2 in Germany and 52.2 in the Eurozone. Therefore, it is difficult to label this data package as entirely negative. However, traders neither viewed it positively nor negatively and largely ignored the releases. The same applies to the U.S. PMI data and the report on initial jobless claims.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1849, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidated below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. Thus, the downward movement may continue toward the next retracement level of 76.4% at 1.1617. A rebound from 1.1617 would favor the euro and some growth toward 1.1706 and 1.1778. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 13,693 long positions and closed 19,866 short positions. Over the past seven weeks, the bulls' overwhelming advantage has dissipated. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 214,000, while short positions amount to 188,000. Two months ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict is paused but not resolved. Therefore, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend less on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the ECB or on economic data, and more on developments related to the conflict with Iran. The dollar may continue to benefit from this situation.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Business Climate Index (08:00 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On April 24, the economic calendar contains only two entries, neither of which is particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is likely to remain minimal.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities were available following a rebound from 1.1824 on the hourly chart and after consolidation below 1.1745. The current target of 1.1666 has almost been reached. New selling positions may be considered after a close below 1.1666, targeting 1.1568. Buying positions are advisable after a rebound from 1.1666, targeting 1.1745. Trader activity has been relatively low in recent days.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart, and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation remains "bullish." The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave bears an almost complete advantage in the market for two months, after which the geopolitical background supported bulls for two weeks. At present, the situation in the Middle East is contradictory, so traders are in a pause mode. To break the bullish trend, two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low are required.

The news background on Thursday and Friday gave bullish traders four opportunities to go on the offensive. However, they were unable to overcome the resistance level of 1.3513–1.3539 and ignored the entire economic backdrop from the UK. Earlier in the week, important reports on unemployment and inflation were released, which also failed to trigger any reaction from traders. Thus, the PMI and retail sales data initially had very low chances of prompting a market response. Nevertheless, the composite index rose to 52 points in April, the services sector increased to 52, and the manufacturing sector to 53.6. All reports came in stronger than forecasts. This morning it was also reported that retail sales volumes increased by 0.7% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year in March, also exceeding market expectations. Yet none of this data helped the British currency in any way. The market continues to ignore all news not related to geopolitics and remains highly selective even within geopolitical developments.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above a downward trend channel, which allows for expectations of a full-fledged trend. After forming a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3540. However, prices then became stuck between 1.3482 and 1.3540 and only yesterday managed to resume the decline. The chart pattern on the hourly timeframe is currently clearer, so it is advisable to base decisions on it. No new emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,603, while short positions rose by 5,973. The gap between long and short positions now stands roughly at 55,000 versus 110,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced long ones, leading to a significant imbalance. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but the latest news suggests that a full ceasefire remains far off, and the conflict could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could become even stronger.

Economic Calendar for the US and UK:

• UK – Retail Sales (06:00 UTC)
• US – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On April 24, the economic calendar contains just two entries, which may again be ignored, as has been the case with most reports this week. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may once again be very weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities were available following a rebound from the 1.3513–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3428–1.3437. These short positions can still be held today. New selling positions may be considered after a close below 1.3428–1.3437, targeting 1.3325–1.3352. Buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from 1.3428–1.3437, targeting 1.3513–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the hourly chart, and from 1.3012 to 1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the psychological level of $4700, attempting to hold onto a bullish tone. The escalation of the standoff between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, along with the lack of progress in the peace process, continues to sustain market tension. Additionally, increased inflation risks are limiting expectations for monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on the precious metal.

Signs of escalation between the U.S. and Iran persist amid a naval blockade of Iranian ports by the U.S. Navy. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described these actions as an act of war. Meanwhile, key negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized that a full ceasefire would only make sense if there were no restrictions related to the naval blockade. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the country's naval forces to destroy any vessels laying mines in the strategically important maritime corridor. This reduces the likelihood of sustained de-escalation and supports demand for the dollar as a reserve currency, increasing pressure on gold. Meanwhile, ongoing disruptions in energy supplies through a key transportation route are keeping oil prices elevated. This further fuels concerns about accelerating global inflation and could lead to tighter policies by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Current market expectations suggest only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in 2026. Such a scenario supports U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, negatively impacting non-yielding assets like gold and increasing the likelihood of further weakness.In the U.S. macroeconomic calendar for Friday, the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled for release. However, geopolitical factors remain the key driver, capable of increasing volatility in global markets and shaping trading opportunities in gold. Nevertheless, the current fundamental backdrop indicates that a bearish scenario prevails for the XAU/USD pair. Therefore, any corrective upward moves may be viewed as selling opportunities and are likely to be short-lived.

From a technical perspective, if prices manage to break above the 20-day and 100-day SMAs again, bulls may regain control. However, as oscillators have moved into negative territory, this confirms the strength of the bears. If gold fails to hold the $4645 level, the decline could accelerate toward the psychological level of $4500.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Fear has not disappeared, and it showed up in the selling of yesterday's leaders. The Magnificent Seven, which led the S&P 500 to new record highs, are now being actively sold. Investors need only the smallest pretext to exit long positions: Tesla's jump in AI spending to $25 billion — three times its 2026 level — knocked the stock down 3.6%. Microsoft slipped on voluntary buyback reports, Meta fell on layoff news, and IBM disappointed investors with updated revenue guidance.

S&P 500 dynamics

A report showing the PMI rising to a three-month high of 52 in April did not rescue the market. That print outperformed European and Asian peers and briefly returned the narrative of US exceptionalism. There is an active inventory buildup by industrial firms, a pattern also seen ahead of the large tariffs the White House put in place on Liberation Day of America in April 2025. That episode showed the pickup in business activity can be transitory.

Investors were more alarmed by the PMI price subindex jumping to an 11-month high. That suggests accelerating inflation. The Fed may be forced to keep interest rates high — or even raise them — at the expense of growth. Don't count on a central bank safety net even if GDP starts to cool significantly. That's bad news for US equities.

Donald Trump is doing his best to prop up stocks, flagging any signal of de-escalation. He said the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended for three weeks and the White House will do whatever it can to get Beirut to settle the Hezbollah issue.

In my view, retail investors' buy-the-dip strategy remains working, but the market is increasingly skeptical about a quick end to the geopolitical conflict. As a result, yesterday's leaders — the Magnificent Seven — are the first to be sold, and investors are seizing any excuse to initiate shorts.

Technically, the S&P 500 printed a bar with a long lower shadow on the daily chart. That pattern normally signals bear weakness and provides a basis for buying off the high near 7,145. However, failure by bulls to consolidate above that level would flip the picture. Selling on breaks of the support levels at 7,100 and 7,060 would then be the appropriate short-term strategy.

Markets were hit by a fresh wave of volatility driven by an escalation in the Middle East conflict. Indices plunged sharply, reflecting growing investor concern about the outlook. At the same time, oil prices spiked. That jump is directly linked to the threat of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical route for global energy shipments.

Deepening geopolitical tension raises the real prospect of significant energy supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of world oil exports transit, has seen restrictions that already created a sharp supply deficit. Continued closure would push oil prices higher and weigh on the global economy, slowing growth and accelerating inflation.

Already the renewed confrontation has pushed Brent above $105. Fears that peace talks have stalled, together with rising military threats, limit upside potential for equity indices and other risk assets.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump ordered US naval forces to fire on any vessel laying mines in the strait, while US forces reported intercepting two supertankers attempting to evade efforts to prevent passage to and from Iranian ports.

Later the same day, Trump said that if Iran does not deliver oil, its infrastructure will collapse. He also stated that Iran wants a deal and that the US is engaged in talks with Tehran. The US president warned Americans to expect higher gasoline prices for some time.

Meanwhile, Iranian news agency Mehr reported that air-defense systems had been activated in parts of Tehran to counter hostile targets, and semi-official agency Fars said the move was a response to small drone activity.

All this underscores uncertainty in diplomatic relations between the two sides. The persistent ambiguity over the Strait of Hormuz is particularly troubling. The absence of a clear plan to reopen the waterway increases uncertainty and puts pressure on risk assets.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,125. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a surge to $7,138. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $7,156, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,106. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,087 and could open the way to $7,066.

According to several economists' forecasts, the ECB is likely to respond to the current geopolitical situation by raising interest rates. The first such increase is expected as early as June of this year. This decision will aim to combat inflationary pressures, which are likely to intensify due to disruptions in energy supplies. However, in the long term, to safeguard economic growth that could be undermined by external shocks, the ECB will likely begin lowering rates next year. This dual approach will allow the central bank to balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic activity.

At the April meeting, the ECB will almost certainly keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2%, but is expected to raise it by a quarter percentage point at the next meeting after new forecasts provide a clearer picture of the economic consequences of the conflict. Half of the economists predicting a rate increase in June also expect at least one decrease by the end of 2027. The average estimate indicates that the deposit rate will return to 2% by September of that year.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and other experts have recently stated that this month, they are unlikely to have enough information to determine whether households' and companies' inflation expectations have changed significantly due to the sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices. At the same time, they emphasize that they are closely monitoring such signals and will take necessary actions.

According to the latest data, consumer prices in the eurozone rose by 2.6% year-on-year in March—the highest rate since mid-2024. Expectations regarding retail prices and concerns about inflation have also increased. However, all of this was roughly in line with economists' forecasts and did not result in significant changes in the market or the regulator's policy.

Regarding the futures market, while traders are almost entirely confident that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged next week, they still predict two quarter-point rate increases this year.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1690 level. Only this will allow for targeting a test of 1.1720. From there, they could reach 1.1760, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The further target will be the high of 1.1790. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect serious action from major buyers only around 1.1666. If there are no significant buyers present, it would be better to wait for a low at 1.1645 or open long positions from 1.1620.

It is important to note that the sharp rise observed this week has impacted the entire cryptocurrency space. In just four days, market participants' sentiment toward Bitcoin has shifted dramatically: from "extreme fear" to "euphoria." This rapid change indicates increased optimism and, consequently, significantly raises the risk of a correction.

In the current situation, with Bitcoin at quite significant price levels from which we have frequently observed active declines this year, traders should exercise extreme caution. Historical data shows that similar peaks often become reversal points, and a new wave of growth may not be sustainable. The risks associated with investing at these levels are high, and premature buying could lead to substantial losses.

Moreover, it is important not to overlook external factors that can have an immediate impact on the cryptocurrency market. Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could suddenly put pressure back onto the market. Therefore, when making investment decisions, it is crucial to consider not only internal market sentiments but also the overall global context.

As for my intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to trade by capitalizing on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating that the long-term bull market—which is still very much intact—will continue.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $77,900, targeting an increase to $78,700. At around $78,700, I will exit the buy positions and immediately sell on the rebound (expecting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $77,200 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout back to $77,900 and $78,700.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after the price reaches around $77,200, targeting a decline to $76,300. At around $76,300, I will exit the sell positions and immediately buy on the rebound (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $77,900 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout back to $77,200 and $76,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $2,320, targeting an increase to $2,368. At around $2,368, I will exit the buy positions and immediately sell on the rebound (expecting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,304 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout back to $2,320 and $2,368.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $2,304, targeting a decline to $2,267. At around $2,267, I will exit the sell positions and immediately buy on the rebound (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $2,320 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout back to $2,304 and $2,267.

The price test at 159.63 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero mark, confirming it as a good entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by nearly 230 pips.

Yesterday's encouraging data, indicating growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors in the United States for April, rekindled demand for the U.S. dollar against the yen. The business activity indices for both the manufacturing and services sectors exceeded economists' forecasts, indicating sustained consumer interest and confidence among companies.

However, today the Japanese yen exhibited remarkable resilience, despite positive news that the consumer price index rose to 1.5%, surpassing economists' expectations. This increase should have served as a catalyst for strengthening the national currency, as it inevitably raises the question for the Bank of Japan about the possibility of further monetary policy tightening. Traditionally, interest rate hikes are seen as a factor attracting investments and consequently stimulating demand for the national currency.

Nonetheless, despite such encouraging economic signals, traders remain reluctant to increase their positions in the Japanese yen. This behavior stems from a far more powerful force currently shaping sentiment in financial markets—the geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Rising risks in this region are driving global uncertainty and increasing demand for safe-haven assets, with the U.S. dollar the primary beneficiary.

In conditions of heightened international tensions, investors tend to minimize risks by choosing more secure and liquid instruments. Therefore, even with positive internal economic data, the Japanese yen finds itself overshadowed by stronger competitors.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.84 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 160.19 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 160.19, I will exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.74 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 159.84 and 160.19.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after it drops below 159.74 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.43 level, where I will exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to sell as high as possible, near the 160 yen level. Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.84 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 159.74 and 159.43.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price at 1.3498 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming it as a good entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.3519. Short positions at 1.3486 also yielded a profit of about 30 pips.

Yesterday's PMI data from the UK, which supported the pound in the first half of the day, was unable to prevent its decline in the second half. This reflects the complex and multifaceted nature of the current market situation, where individual positive indicators are quickly offset by broader geopolitical factors. Despite encouraging manufacturing activity figures that should have strengthened the currency, traders and investors remain cautious. Pressure on the pair returned, which may be attributed to several factors, including ongoing uncertainty regarding future economic policies, global geopolitical upheavals, and strong macroeconomic data from the US.

In the first half of the day, traders will closely monitor the release of UK retail sales data. This report plays a crucial role in assessing consumer activity and, consequently, the overall state of the economy. Unfortunately, economists' forecasts do not inspire optimism. The published figures are expected to disappoint, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending. The anticipated weak retail data will undoubtedly exert pressure on the British pound. The currency, which has already been hit by negative events from yesterday, could face another wave of decline.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3472 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3503 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3503, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Strong pound growth can only be anticipated after strong economic data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3457 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3472 and 1.3503.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it drops below 1.3457 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3435 level, where I will exit the short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3472 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3457 and 1.3435.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price at 1.1694 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move above the zero mark, confirming it as a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1712.

However, the rise of the euro was not sustained. The strong data released yesterday, reflecting an increase in manufacturing and service activities in the United States in April, contributed to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Particularly encouraging were the results in the services sector, which returned to growth. The PMI index for this sector also came in above expectations, reflecting a stable demand for goods and services.

Today promises to be rich in economic events. In the first half of the day, the key event will be the release of the new IFO Business Climate Index report. This comprehensive indicator, which includes assessments of the current state of affairs and future prospects, serves as one of the crucial measures of the German economy. The IFO Institute surveys thousands of German enterprises across various sectors, from manufacturing to services, every month. The collected information provides invaluable insights into how business leaders assess current business conditions and their expectations for the future. Given the situation in the Middle East and the new energy crisis, it's essential to closely monitor the dynamics of the overall business climate index, including its components—current situation and expectations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1690 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1716. At point 1.1716, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. An increase in the euro can only be expected after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1676 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1690 and 1.1716.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1676 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1645, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today may return if the situation in the Middle East worsens. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also intend to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1690 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1676 and 1.1645.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Strong data on manufacturing and services activity in the US for April also supported the U.S. dollar. The PMI indices published by S&P Global showed robust growth, exceeding economists' expectations and indicating the ongoing resilience of the U.S. economy despite events in the Middle East.

The manufacturing sector, in particular, showed promising results, with the PMI index reaching a multi-month high. This indicates that businesses are increasing production volumes, and new orders continue to come in. The services sector also returned above the 50-point mark. These positive economic signals have strengthened the U.S. dollar's position in global currency markets.

Today's economic calendar is busy, with special attention in the first half of the day on German data, which could significantly influence European market sentiment. The key event will be the publication of the new IFO Business Climate Index report. This composite indicator, comprising assessments of the current situation and economic expectations, is one of the key barometers of the largest economy in the eurozone. The results of these surveys will provide valuable insights into how business leaders assess current conditions for their activities amid a challenging geopolitical situation.

As for the pound, traders will also be paying close attention to the UK. In the first half of the day, the focus will be on the release of retail sales data. Unfortunately, economists' forecasts do not inspire optimism. Weak figures are expected, which may indicate a slowdown in consumer spending. Amid rising inflation and uncertainty about future economic prospects, the British are likely to cut back on spending, prioritizing essential goods. Weak retail data will certainly exert negative pressure on the British pound.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data show significantly higher or lower results than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy may be the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (for Breakouts):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buying at a breakout above 1.1691 may lead to an increase in the euro toward 1.1714 and 1.1736;
• Selling at a breakout below 1.1666 may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1645 and 1.1619;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buying at a breakout above 1.3475 may lead to an increase in the pound toward 1.3515 and 1.3551;
• Selling at a breakout below 1.3445 may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3416 and 1.3381;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buying at a breakout above 159.85 may lead to an increase in the dollar toward 160.05 and 160.25;
• Selling at a breakout below 159.60 may lead to a decline in the dollar toward 159.35 and 159.15;

Mean Reversion Strategy (for Pullbacks):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1695 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1671 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3477 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3449 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.7142 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.7115 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3720 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3690 on a return to this level;

Gold is trading around $4,676 under bearish pressure and within a descending trend channel formed on April 16. Gold is currently trading below the 7/8 Murray level and below the 21-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a downtrend.

For the past few days, gold has been trading below the 200 EMA, after attempting to break above it on Tuesday. Below this area, we saw a sharp technical correction, and now the instrument remains under bearish pressure. XAU could continue its fall in the coming hours, potentially reaching the lower band of the descending trend channel around $4,580.

If gold consolidates above the 7/8 Murray level around $4,687 in the next few hours and breaks above the 21-period SMA and the descending trend channel, this could be considered a positive sign. We could then expect the price to reach the 200-period EMA around $4,776 and even its weekly high around $4,886.

If gold falls towards the lower band of the descending trend channel around $4,580 in the next few hours, this area could be seen as a buying opportunity if a technical rebound occurs, with targets at the 7/8 Murray level.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so we expect gold to resume its main upward cycle in the coming days and could reach $4,800 or even the psychological level of $5,000.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $2,305, below the 21SMA and within a descending trend channel formed on April 17th. This indicates exhaustion of the upward momentum and suggests a likely decline in the coming days.

After a strong push towards the $2,400 zone, ETH failed to consolidate above this level, resulting in a technical correction. ETH has shown weakness in recent hours, and a sharp break below the main ascending trend channel around $2,300 could be seen as a sell signal, with targets around the 200-period moving average of $2,230. It could even reach the lower band of the descending trend channel around $2,180.

If ETH/USD recovers in the next few hours and reaches the upper band of the descending trend channel around $2,375, it could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with targets at $2,300 and $2,230 around the 200 EMA.

A sharp break of the ascending trend channel formed since March 30th and consolidation below the 200 EMA around $2,230 could signal the start of a new bearish scenario, and we could expect Ethereum to reach the low of $1,845 around the 6/8 Murray in the coming days.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal. So, if there is a pullback towards the resistance zone of $2,380, it could be considered an opportunity to open short positions.

Bitcoin is trading around $77,654, below the 5/8 Murray level and within the upward trend channel formed in early April. BTC is undergoing a strong technical correction but is finding significant dynamic support coinciding with the 21-day SMA.

Bitcoin could continue to fall in the coming hours, potentially reaching the lower band of the upward trend channel around $76,200. This area could offer a strong technical bounce for Bitcoin and could be considered an opportunity to open long positions, with targets around the psychological level of $80,000.

If the area where the 21-day SMA is located around $77,000 proves to be strong support for Bitcoin, and it bounces above this zone, we could see this as a buying opportunity, with targets at $78,500, $79,600, and ultimately the psychological level of $80,000.

Should Bitcoin break below the ascending trend channel and consolidate around $75,000, it could signal the start of a trend reversal. We could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $72,850 in the short term, and even potentially the 2/8 Murray level around $68,750.

The Eagle indicator is currently showing a negative signal. So, if the price returns to its weekly high of $79,500 or reaches the upper band of the ascending trend channel, it could be considered a signal to continue selling.