What Sentix shows: the November index printed 2.4 versus a 1.8 forecast and 2.7 in October—better than expected but below the prior reading, meaning the deterioration in sentiment is slowing. Notably, the euro gained despite weak domestic data. Germany's trade surplus fell to €15.6bn in September versus a forecast of €18.1bn and €17.8bn (revised) a month earlier—the third decline in a row from €21.3bn in July—and eurozone retail sales plunged 0.7% month-on-month in Friday's data versus -0.1% expected. Why did not the euro fall? I believe the market focused on the dollar rather than on European fundamentals; euro buyers won the day, while those betting on continued dollar strength lost out.

On Fed rhetoric, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said yesterday that data suggest some data center investment looks overheated and central banks typically respond aggressively to such demand. He argued for maintaining restrictive policy with an emphasis on fighting inflation, a noticeably firmer stance than in October, when he left open both hikes and a pause. That did not help the dollar against the euro and the pound. Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin also said policy would remain tight, calling inflation stubbornly high and noting companies increasingly pass cost increases to consumers. He expects rate rises but gave no specific ceiling; on November 5 he backed a gradual pace of hikes without naming a peak.

The market now prices the chance of a December hike at more than 80%, up from 67–75% on November 2, and many experts expect the Fed to continue raising rates into next year, possibly until March 2027. The policy rate is currently 3.75–4.00% after a 10–2 vote on October 28; the next meeting is December 9. The ECB deposit rate sits at 2.50%, with a move to 2.75% expected on December 17, leaving the rate gap in the dollar's favor. The Bank of England, having raised to 4.00% with a 9-0-0 vote, also retains a hawkish tone. Central banks are broadly aligned to tightening, so dollar support should primarily come from data—chiefly inflation readings.

Looking at today's calendar, there is no major eurozone data, so attention shifts to U.S. inflation. The headline CPI for October is expected to be +0.3% month-on-month after +0.6% in September. Recall the run: June falling, July +0.1%, August +0.4%, September +0.6%, and now forecast +0.3% for October. Last year's October data are unavailable due to the government shutdown at that time, so a year-on-year headline figure will not be published; September's annual rate was 3.7%. The focus will likely be on core CPI, forecasted to be +0.2% month-on-month in October after +0.3% in September, because core strips out volatile energy and better reflects persistent inflation pressures. If prints exceed forecasts, Fed officials will sound tougher, and with December already priced in, further hikes for next year would become more likely—strengthening the dollar.

After the release, many Fed speakers will comment, including Lorie Logan, Jeffrey Schmid, and Michelle Bowman; from the Bank of England, we will hear Briden, Lombardelli, and Pill. A strong labor market and high inflation increase the odds of further Fed tightening. I lean toward dollar downside pressure persisting before the inflation prints, giving the euro and the pound room to recover further, but a core CPI beat could quickly bring dollar buyers back.

Technical picture for EUR/USD (hourly)

For buyers I see support at 1.1218: a false break below this level is a long entry toward 1.1244. A break and hold above that range opens the path to 1.1272, with a further target at 1.1298, where I will look to sell bounces for 20–25 pips. Shorts from 1.1244 and 1.1272 are valid on false breaks; their bear target is 1.1218. If bulls do not defend 1.1218, a break and hold below the range would prompt a slide to 1.1187. There I would consider long on a false break, with a farther target at 1.1164 and buying bounces for 20–25 pips.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

The story is much the same. Given Andrew Bailey's firm tone yesterday, the pound may have upside potential. First resistance is 1.3460, where I expect bears on a false break. If selling pressure returns in the European session, active buyers should appear around 1.3431, where I would buy false breaks aiming for a move above 1.3460. A break above 1.3460 could run to 1.3481, where I will look to short failed closes, and the next target is 1.3501—there I will sell bounces for 15–20 pips. If bulls do not appear at 1.3431, wait for a correction to 1.3399 (near the moving average) for longs on failed closes, or buy bounces from 1.3371 targeting 25–30 pips.

NAB's October survey recorded a further deterioration in business sentiment. The confidence index fell one point to -15 and the conditions index to -2, with the weakest dynamics shown by the forward-orders component, which collapsed 11 points to -12. This broad-based decline was led by construction and manufacturing. For the RBA, this report confirms the narrative voiced in the November Monetary Policy Statement — the economy is slowing but continues to operate near capacity limits, which sustains supply-side inflationary pressure.

The composite PMI fell to 48.2 from 51.3 a month earlier, decisively crossing the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, and the services sector, which had been the economy's last pillar for much of the year, also joined the downward trend. This result aligns with the picture painted by the NAB and Westpac surveys — households are cutting spending under pressure from higher living costs and debt servicing, and businesses are responding to weaker demand by reducing orders and hesitating on investments.

The RBA rate has reached 4.85%, and most economists agree the RBA will pause, with the risk of another hike if inflation continues to rise. The RBA expects GDP growth to remain below potential over the entire forecast horizon. CBA takes a more pessimistic view: the bank's economists forecast annual growth slowing to 1% by mid-2027 — well below the RBA's 1.6% projection — before recovering to 2.1% by the end of 2028. This is not yet a recession, but if the negative trends continue in the coming months, forecasts will inevitably be revised downward.

Speculative positioning in AUD changed little over the reporting week, with a net short position of -9.07 billion and the implied price trajectory moving up.

The AUD/USD pair tested support at 0.6868 but failed to close below it. Long-term factors do not give grounds to expect a sustained rise in the Aussie, but short-term drivers, especially geopolitical ones, could work in its favor. We believe another wave of declines is unlikely in the near term; the pair is highly likely to return toward the mid 0.6960/70 area.

Global equity indices are recovering rapidly from recent sell-offs, putting in their strongest two-day advance in roughly three months. The main positive driver was a steep drop in Brent crude below $92/bbl. The decline in oil prices was triggered by easing geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump said that new strikes on Iran would be unnecessary, a signal investors read as a de-escalation of the conflict.

Cheaper energy eases inflationary pressure, raising hopes that the Fed could pause interest rate hikes. With markets positioned for softer US October CPI, investors are returning to risk assets. Follow the link for more details.

Tech sector recovers political losses ahead of Anthropic's record IPO

Chipmakers and major tech names experienced a powerful rebound from local lows. Investors quickly bought the dip caused by recent regulatory fears around AI and proposed limits on data-center construction after the US midterm elections. Wall Street's attention has shifted to Anthropic's impending IPO, and the company released updated Mythos and Fable model versions ahead of its listing.

Preliminary market chatter suggests that the IPO could take place as early as November 19-20, and the deal could raise as much as $69.3 billion (against quarterly revenue of roughly $17 billion). Renewed appetite for tech is likely to keep volatility elevated. Follow the link for more details.

Trump's threats and spy scandal send Nvidia shares tumbling amid Congressional probe

Donald Trump issued a severe ultimatum to the head of a major AI company, even threatening prison — rhetoric markets immediately associated with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who has become the center of an international spy scandal. US intelligence agencies are reportedly probing his ties to Alice Huang, founder of Singapore-based Megaspeed International. Megaspeed bought advanced Nvidia chips worth roughly $4.6 billion and reportedly rented compute capacity to Alibaba, actions that could have helped Beijing skirt US export controls.

Following a public admission, Nvidia's board launched an internal emergency review, and House Republicans have summoned the CEO for closed hearings on November 18. Although the company says that there is no public evidence of direct technology leakage, premarket quotes for the chipmaker fell by 3.4% immediately. The unprecedented vulnerability of Nvidia's leadership introduces major risks for the AI industry and raises the potential for a serious diplomatic rift between Washington and Beijing. Follow the link for more details.

As I noted above, oil did not help, although in theory it would reduce the chances of further upward price pressure. For now, Brent holds around $90 after Donald Trump signaled a pause in strikes on Iran. Recall that on Monday the oil decline supported stocks and returned Bitcoin above $75,000, but today that effect is not observed. Nasdaq-100 futures are falling after yesterday's rally, and because Bitcoin's correlation with US equities this week was about 0.8, it is being pulled down alongside the tech sector.

I believe that while flows into Bitcoin ETFs remain weak, strong growth in the crypto market is unlikely. The only notable buyer now is Strategy, which on Monday added 1,036 BTC at an average price of $79,012—above the current price—and that position is currently underwater. If the US core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, I expect a move toward the 200-week moving average near $67,700. A soft report would produce only a bounce to $75,500 but would not change the balance of forces.

Bitcoin

The nearest range runs between support at 74,100 and resistance at 74,500, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. A confident break above 74,500 opens the way to 75,000, where it is sensible to take profit and look for a short on the pullback; condition: price above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero. If price drops below 74,100 but the downside breakout is not confirmed, and buyers quickly reclaim the level, buying is acceptable, with an initial target of 74,500 and a secondary target of 75,000.

Selling is mirrored: a confirmed close below 74,100 gives a short targeting 73,400, provided the 50-day average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the price rises to 74,500 but an upside breakout fails to hold, consider a short back to 74,100 and then to 73,400.

Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: the working range lies between support 2,084 and resistance 2,098. A break above 2,098 opens the way to 2,118, where it is sensible to take profit and look for a short on the pullback; condition: price above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero. If price falls below 2,084, but the downside breakout is not confirmed, and buyers quickly reclaim the level, buying is acceptable, with targets at 2,098 and then 2,118.

Selling is possible on a confirmed close below 2,084 with a target of 2,067, provided the 50-day average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the price rises to 2,098 but an upside breakout fails to hold, consider a short back to 2,084 and then to 2,067. Both indicators serve only as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early, and decisions are made only after real price confirmation of the specified levels.

The price test at 158.10 in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator began to move up from the zero line; however, this did not lead to a large rally in the pair.

Japan's data today proved unconvincing for the yen. The current-account surplus in September was £1,817.7 billion against expected £2,790.0 billion and £2,910.5 billion a month earlier, while bank lending grew 5.2% versus an expected 5.4%. A weaker external balance reduces inflows of foreign currency that normally support the national currency, and the deterioration in sentiment indicates that domestic demand remains fragile.

Attention now shifts to the US consumer-price index for October, expected at 0.3% after 0.6% in September, with core at 0.2% after 0.3%. After the September report, the dollar jumped sharply on October 14 even though inflation merely matched forecasts, and a repeat reaction is possible. Ten-year US Treasury yields around 4.87% versus 5.02% on October 28 give the dollar somewhat less support, but the probability of a Federal Reserve hike in December is close to 80%, and speeches by Waller and Bowman could cement that outlook.

The Bank of Japan remains an important counterweight. The policy rate is 1.25%; on October 30 the committee kept it by an 8–1 vote. Many expect a hike in December because nominal wages rose 4.6% in September versus a forecast of 3.8% and 3.9% a month earlier. But with weak current accounts and business sentiment, that argument is insufficient to guarantee a strong yen. In my view, a sharp rise in US inflation and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials will leave yen buyers with little chance, while soft prints would give the pair room for a correction.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 158.25 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 158.65 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.65, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). Expect the pair to rise today only after strong US data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 158.03 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 158.25 and 158.65.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 158.03 level breaks (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 157.59, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return if there is central-bank intervention. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 158.25 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 158.03 and 157.59.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

The price test at 1.3454 occurred when the MACD indicator was already well above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. A second test of 1.3454 triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the pound, resulting in a 30-pip decline.

This morning the pound held up reasonably well but then gave back gains. UK data were limited to the BRC retail sales monitor, which rose 1.1% versus a forecast of 1.2% and 1.0% a month earlier, so the main focus remains on remarks from British and US policymakers. Last night in Zurich, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey spoke, but not about rates — he talked about trade. As head of the central bank, he declined to judge whether Brexit was the right move or whether political relations with the EU should change, but he emphasized that any reduction in openness to trade weighs on growth and productivity, and that opportunities to expand sales markets, including in the EU and Switzerland, should be used when possible.

Now the floor goes to Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Both previously belonged to the Federal Reserve's cautious wing, and their tone will show how broadly a hawkish consensus is forming in the committee. On October 28, the Fed left rates unchanged with a 10–2 vote, with Cook and Hammock voting for a hike, and in early September Waller said he would be ready to hold the rate if inflation progressed. If he and Bowman shift toward supporting a December hike, that would carry more weight than comments by Goolsbee and Barkin because it would come from officials who earlier resisted pushing for tightening.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point around 1.3435 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 1.3453 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3453, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). The pound's rise today can be expected after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if it tests 1.3421 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3435 and 1.3453.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3421 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3400, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Strong pressure on the pound will return with good US data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3435 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3421 and 1.3400.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

The price test at 1.1235 occurred after the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, limiting the euro's upside potential. For that reason, I did not buy the euro.

Today the euro continued its rise without a single eurozone release on the calendar, but after updating the weekly high the market began taking profits. The anticipation of US inflation best explains this caution, since the previous prices report was unpleasant for the pair. On October 14, the September index of 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year matched the forecast, yet the dollar still jumped sharply against the euro, and PPI the next day only gave it brief support. Now a slowdown to 0.3% for the headline index and 0.2% for core is expected, so the bar is set lower and any exceedance will be read more harshly than then. Waller and Bowman will also speak today. Waller in early September said he was ready to hold the rate if inflation continued to progress, and later noted that timing is flexible and consecutive hikes are not necessary. If today he and Bowman, who was also considered part of the committee's cautious wing, support a December move and the CPI prints above forecast, euro buyers will lose their last arguments. I believe the pair will continue to decline in that combination.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1230 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1257. At 1.1257, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. Expect euro strength today only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1213 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1230 and 1.1257.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1213 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1189, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of strong data above the forecast. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1230 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1213 and 1.1189.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a broad, primary descending channel that reflects the overall negative trend. Overlaid on this is a steeper, secondary descending channel, which exerts direct, forceful pressure on the price, driving it toward a succession of new lows. Notably, the price is currently positioned near the lower boundaries of these channels, with minor fluctuations suggesting an attempt to establish a temporary support base following the sustained decline.

Interaction with Pivot and Resistance Levels: The price faced intense downward pressure after failing to hold above key pivot levels—specifically the weekly pivot at 93.24—as well as upper resistance levels, such as the Weekly R1 (99.83) and Weekly R2 (109.33). Consequently, the price broke through support lines and is now trading below the pivot, moving progressively toward the first weekly support level (Weekly S1), located near 83.74.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 88.00 – 89.00 (near-term intraday resistance zones and median lines).

Second Resistance: 93.24 (Weekly Pivot point and the threshold for the intraday trend).

Pivotal Resistance: 99.83 (Weekly R1 resistance level).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 83.74 (Weekly S1 support level and the immediate target for bearish momentum).

Second Support: 82.00 (a major psychological support level and the lower boundary of the price range).

Pivotal Support: The 80.50 zone and below, should the price collapse continue and selling momentum intensify.

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations:

Bearish Scenario (Primary):

The negative trend remains dominant and most likely, provided the price stays below the near-term resistance levels and the Weekly Pivot point of 93.24.

Recommendation: It is advisable to sell into any corrective upward rebounds toward the 87.50 – 89.00 range, as long as these levels continue to cap any price advances.

Technical Targets: Aim to break the current low, reaching the first weekly support level at 83.74, with a potential extension toward 82.00.

Corrective Bullish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario would be triggered if significant buying pressure emerges, successfully lifting prices from current lows and breaking through the technical resistance levels. Confirmation Condition: A 4-hour candle must close clearly above the nearby resistance level at 89.00.

Technical Targets: This would pave the way for a deeper bullish correction, targeting the weekly pivot level at 93.24.

Risk Management

During periods of decline and high negative momentum in the crude oil markets, it is strongly advised to avoid entering trades haphazardly without a clear plan. It is essential to strictly adhere to rigorous capital management rules, limiting risk to a maximum of 2% per trade. Furthermore, stop-loss orders must be placed with precision to protect the portfolio against sharp reversals and sudden volatility.

Price Action on the Crude Oil (#CL) Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at 85.83, below the ascending channel on the daily timeframe. It has experienced a sharp decline and widespread selling pressure, leading to a downward breakout below the monthly pivot point (100.05) and the first monthly support level (Monthly S1 at 89.59).

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday's and Today's):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected intense selling pressure and an accelerated decline, breaking through key support levels and confirming the dominance of negative momentum.

Today's Candle: Shows a continuation of the bearish momentum, with the price attempting to reach new lows near 85.83, amid clear dominance by the bears.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): Remains highly probable as long as the price stays below the broken support levels and the monthly pivot point. The decline could potentially continue, targeting the next monthly support level at 76.41 (Monthly S2).

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Would be triggered if sudden buying pressure emerges, pushing the price to rebound and climb back above the 89.59 level (Monthly S1), thereby easing the negative pressure.

Additional pressure on the pair may come from the US side, and inflation will decide everything. Today the consumer price index for October will be published; for beginners, this is the indicator of how much goods and services have become more expensive. The headline monthly figure is expected at 0.3% after 0.6% in September, and core at 0.2% after 0.3%. Core is needed to see whether inflation has accelerated within the economy itself, since it excludes food and energy. Year-on-year headline is expected at 3.9% versus 3.7%, and core at 2.8% versus 2.6%. September's jump was driven largely by gasoline, which rose 9.1%, so the forecast implies half the monthly gain, and any exceedance of these figures will give the dollar a reason to be bought. In addition, Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman will speak. Waller in early September said he was ready to support holding the rate if inflation continued to decline, but the committee's tone has since changed markedly, so their words after the data can easily amplify the move.

There is another interesting signal. As of November 3, the net short position of large speculators on the pound fell to 59,821 contracts from 79,414 a week earlier. In short, bets on a falling pound have noticeably decreased, whereas in mid-October their number was the highest in nine years. That means part of the recent pound rise was linked to closing those short positions rather than to genuine increased interest in the currency itself. When that buffer runs out, the rally often peters out. If inflation comes in above forecasts and Waller and Bowman back the hawkish line of Goolsbee and Barkin, pound buyers will have almost no arguments left.

Momentum

The price is now at 1.3427, literally at the lower level. A move beyond the boundary is a breakout, but one touch is not enough—confirmation is needed, meaning several consecutive five-minute candles must close beyond the level. Otherwise, it's easy to get caught by a false breakout, after which price returns.

From above 1.3456 is active. A close above opens the way to 1.3481 and then to 1.3501. Today's rise already showed how hard that is: the pair reached that mark but failed to hold and turned down, so buyers need a fresh reason for another attempt, and that reason can only be soft US inflation, which would weaken the dollar. I have significantly less confidence in that scenario.

From below, the reference is 1.3429; a close below it leads to 1.3399 and then to 1.3371. This is the direction I consider primary. The price is already two pips below the level, so much depends on whether it can close candles below it rather than return above. Caution is required here because, before the inflation report, the market likes to make sharp moves in both directions. If there is no confirmation, I prefer to wait rather than enter on the first touch.

Mean Reversion

There are two levels here, 1.3443 and 1.3409, both between the breakout points, so it's easier to distinguish them from Momentum. The upper reference 1.3443 sits thirteen pips below 1.3456 and fourteen pips above 1.3429. If price returns to it, fails to hold, and turns down again, I consider selling toward 1.3429 with a stop above 1.3456, with a small buffer. This pullback is most likely if inflation prints near expectations and the market calms after the initial reaction.

The lower reference 1.3409 lies twenty pips below 1.3429 and only ten pips above the first breakout target 1.3399. The scheme is mirrored. Price falls to 1.3409, finds no continuation, returns above, and then I look to buy with a stop below 1.3399 with a margin. But if the price confidently closes below 1.3409, the reversion is canceled, and the downward breakout plays. Be especially careful here, since the first Momentum target and this level are very close, and a novice can easily mistake a pause within a decline for a true reversal.

The rise without data looks fragile, and all attention now shifts to the US. Today the consumer price index for October will be published. For those new to the topic, this index shows how much goods and services have become more expensive. The headline monthly figure is expected at 0.3% after 0.6% in September, and the core measure, which excludes food and energy, at 0.2% after 0.3%. Core is needed to understand whether inflation is running hot within the economy itself rather than because of fuel. Year-on-year headline inflation is expected at 3.9% versus 3.7%, and core at 2.8% versus 2.6%. September's spike was largely driven by gasoline, which rose 9.1% and contributed more than half of the monthly increase. Therefore, the forecast implies half the monthly gain, and the dollar will be helped specifically by figures above these expectations. Additionally, Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman will speak. Waller in early September said he was ready to support holding the rate if inflation continued to decline, while Austan Goolsbee and Tom Barkin this week signaled a possible hawkish response. Tone in the committee is changing quickly, and their words after the data can easily amplify the move.

The backdrop remains a rate gap. The Fed funds rate is 3.75–4.00%, noticeably above the European Central Bank's 2.50%. The market prices in almost an 80% chance of a hike at the December 9 meeting, while the ECB is expected to raise rates only on December 17. Added to this is large-speculator positioning. As of November 3, their net short position on the euro rose to 157,791 contracts from 143,894 a week earlier. In short, bets on a falling euro are increasing, and the number of such contracts is higher than in mid-October, when it reached a decade high of about 138,000.

In my view, part of today's rise was linked to players closing those short positions rather than genuine renewed interest in the euro. If the monthly index prints above 0.3%, core above 0.2%, and Waller and Bowman back a hawkish line, euro buyers will have almost no arguments.

Momentum

Price is now at 1.1223, just five pips above the range's lower boundary. A move out of the range is called a breakout, but one touch of the level is not enough — confirmation is needed, meaning several consecutive five-minute candles must close beyond it. Otherwise, you can easily get caught by a false breakout, after which price returns.

From above 1.1247 is active. A close above opens the way to 1.1272 and then to 1.1298. Today has already shown how hard it is to follow that path. The pair rose above this level but failed to hold and fell back, so buyers need a fresh reason. That reason can only be soft US inflation, which would weaken the dollar. I believe in that scenario less than in the opposite.

Below the reference is 1.1218. A close below it leads to 1.1187 and then to 1.1164. I consider this direction primary. Price is already near the level, and the rise without data has lost strength, so high inflation and a hawkish tone from Waller and Bowman will quickly restore dollar demand. Use caution here because five pips can be covered in a couple of minutes, and reactions to the report are often sharp in both directions. It's better to wait for candles to close beyond the level and only then consider entry.

Mean Reversion

Two levels appear here: 1.1245 and 1.1204, positioned differently. The upper reference 1.1245 lies only two pips below the breakout point 1.1247, and novices need particular care here. Such proximity means one touch cannot determine the move's character. If price reaches 1.1245, pokes 1.1247, and quickly returns below, the reversion works, and I consider selling with a stop above 1.1247 with a small buffer. If it confidently closes above, that is a breakout, and selling isn't allowed there. The difference between these scenarios can take several minutes, so it's better to skip the first reaction in this zone. The morning rally to the high essentially played out this way, and if the market repeats it after the data, this level will be in focus again.

The lower reference 1.1204 sits fourteen pips below the breakout point 1.1218, so there is more room for error. The scheme is mirrored. Price first breaks 1.1218, falls to 1.1204, finds no continuation, returns above, and then I look to buy with a stop below 1.1204 with a margin. This picture is most likely if US inflation prints close to expectations and the market retraces after the initial reaction. If the price closes below 1.1204, the reversion is canceled, and the downward breakout plays, with the 1.1187 target already very close.

On Tuesday during the European session, the GBP/JPY pair rose for the second day in a row, with quotes breaking above 212.50 on a combination of factors.

According to today's published data, Japanese household spending fell 6.8% year-on-year in September. The decline is now in its tenth consecutive month and was the largest since September 2020. That situation complicates the Bank of Japan's ability to pursue further monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of broad investor optimism and higher risk appetite, this weighs on the Japanese yen and supports GBP/JPY's rise.

At the same time, the Bank of England's rhetoric remains more hawkish than the BOJ's, giving the pound a yield advantage. Additional support for the pound comes from the weakening US dollar, which is also favorable for GBP/JPY. However, market participants opening short positions against the yen should exercise caution given ongoing talk of possible Japanese currency intervention and the expectation of an imminent BOJ rate increase.

Moreover, the Summary of Opinions following the BOJ's October meeting noted that some board members advocated faster rate increases. One justification was that core inflation has reached the central bank's 2% target. Therefore, before opening new positions betting on further GBP/JPY gains, it is sensible to wait for more convincing confirmation of buyer momentum.

For better trading opportunities, watch the preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the third quarter, scheduled for Wednesday — the results could become a new market catalyst.

From a technical perspective, oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage. At the same time, bulls have not yet pierced the double barrier of the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The 100-day EMA provides support. Below it, the pair would return toward the 200-day EMA.

The table below shows the pound's percentage change against major currencies since the start of the current week. The most notable increase was versus the US dollar.

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair is trying to attract buyers on dips: quotes sit below the round 158.00 level but have already partially recouped losses from the previous session. At the same time, the instrument still trades within the range formed in early October, which calls for a cautious approach when opening large directional positions.

The yen's weakness was triggered by weak domestic economic indicators that could complicate the Bank of Japan's plans for further monetary tightening. According to Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, household consumption fell 6.8% year-on-year in September — the tenth consecutive monthly decline and the deepest drop since September 2020. An additional driver of the USD/JPY rise was a modest strengthening of the US dollar.

US President Donald Trump reported positive progress in resolving the Iran conflict, noting a low probability of renewed strikes and effectively declaring the conflict over. However, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, described reports of active talks as "fake news" and again stated that Washington must meet seven Iranian conditions to reach a settlement. This preserves the geopolitical risk premium and supports the US dollar, which is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset.

Moreover, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders price in better than an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. This provides additional support to the US currency as market participants await fresh US consumer-inflation data for new signals on the Fed's policy path.

At the same time, expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan combined with the risk of currency intervention can limit the yen's weakening and restrain further rises in USD/JPY. In particular, the Summary of Opinions following the Bank of Japan's October meeting noted that some board members favored accelerating the pace of rate increases because core inflation has reached the central bank's 2% target. Therefore, before opening aggressive long positions in USD/JPY, it is advisable to wait for confirming signals — a sustained move above the 100- and 200-day SMAs.

Conversely, for a deeper decline to develop, the pair needs to consolidate below 157.25, where the 50-day SMA runs.

At present, USD/JPY's rise is capped by the 100-day EMA. Moreover, current prices remain confined to the specified range, making any rally attempts vulnerable to seller pressure. The overall technical picture indicates the market is still in a corrective phase while the price stays below that barrier. The nearest significant resistance is formed by the 100- and 200-day SMAs; to ease the current bearish bias and create conditions for a more confident recovery, the pair needs to decisively clear that zone. Oscillators are positive but near neutral, signaling ongoing sideways movement within this range. The 200-day EMA provides the nearest support.

According to the consensus forecast, the consumer price index (CPI) month-on-month is expected to slow from 0.6% in September to 0.3% in October. The same decrease is expected for the core measure — from 0.3% to 0.2%. At the same time, year-on-year both headline and core inflation are expected to rise from 3.7% to 3.9% and from 2.6% to 2.8%, respectively.

Recall that K. Warsh, head of the US central bank, has repeatedly emphasized that the central bank will base rate decisions on domestic conditions. Given his reluctance to raise rates in a way that would harm the national economy, a continued slowdown in inflation this month could lead the Federal Reserve to refrain from raising rates at the December meeting. Currently, fed-funds futures show about an 82.2% probability of a rate increase in December. But the picture could change sharply if the CPI report declines.

What may weigh on US price growth?

First and foremost, a likely continued decline in crude oil prices. New Trump initiatives toward a diplomatic process in the Middle East, rather than a resumption of hostilities, led to a Monday collapse in oil prices, and that decline continues this morning. On that wave, one should expect further slowing of inflation growth this month, which could become a basis for pausing rate hikes in December.

What to expect in markets today?

I believe that if the consumer-inflation report meets the forecast or shows even greater slowing, we should expect a renewed decline of the dollar versus major currencies on the Forex market. This reaction will clearly stem from falling expectations of a mandatory rate increase at the Fed's December meeting. This possible reaction is based on the fact that a December hike is already largely priced into asset values.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD

The pair is trading higher ahead of the US inflation release. On this wave, the pair may rise to 1.1270 and then to 1.1315. A buy level can be 1.1250. Place a stop-loss at 1.1177.

USD/JPY

The pair is consolidating in a very narrow range, from which it could break lower and fall to 157.00 on the US inflation data. A sell level can be 157.85. Place a stop-loss at 158.79.

On Tuesday, gold (XAU/USD) came under renewed selling pressure and surrendered part of the previous day's gains, when prices rose toward resistance in the $4,150 level. However, by the start of the European session, the price remained above $4,100. Growing expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve have become the main factor prompting investors to reduce their exposure to gold. At the same time, the US dollar has yet to attract sustained demand, as reports of diplomatic contacts between the United States and Iran remain contradictory. This provides some support for gold, while traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of US consumer inflation data.

Against the backdrop of the latest developments in the Middle East, US President Donald Trump reported positive progress toward ending the conflict with Iran. He stated that a resumption of strikes was unlikely, effectively declaring the conflict over. However, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, denied reports of active negotiations, describing them as "fake news." He also reiterated that Washington must accept Tehran's seven conditions for the conflict to be resolved. The uncertainty sustains the geopolitical risk premium. Although it does not increase demand for the US dollar, which is traditionally regarded as a "safe haven," it does help support gold prices.

Meanwhile, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released last Friday showed that the economy added 165,000 jobs in October, exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts. Figures for August and September were also revised upward, with a combined adjustment of 84,000. The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% points to economic resilience and strengthens expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Fed. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now assign a probability of more than 80% to an interest rate hike by the US central bank in December. These expectations are weighing on gold.

Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for additional signals regarding the Fed's next steps. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is in focus, as its release could have a significant impact on the US dollar and provide gold with a fresh directional impulse. Therefore, before considering the recent recovery in XAU/USD complete and opening positions in anticipation of a resumption of the downward trend observed over the past two months, it would be prudent to wait for confirmation that selling pressure is increasing again. Last month, the pair recovered from a low near $3,870, its lowest level since September 2025.

In the short term, the outlook for XAU/USD remains positive. This has been supported by the recent breakout above the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages (SMA) on the four-hour chart. Momentum indicators are also maintaining moderately bullish signals: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 57, while the MACD is also in positive territory. This indicates that further upside potential remains, with no signs of an overheated market.

In the event of a correction, the nearest support could be found at the 9-period EMA near $4,106 and the round level of $4100. A more significant support is found at the 100-period SMA ($4048): holding it is important to maintain the current bullish structure. The nearest resistance from above corresponds to the level around $4,155. Next, the $4,200 level may become a guideline for buyers.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against major currencies since the beginning of the current week. The dollar has recorded its largest gain against the Canadian dollar.

Daily S&P 500 performance

All 11 sectors led by Industrials were higher. Yet the NVIDIA scandal failed to drag down the Philadelphia semiconductor index. The disconnect between their paths is the largest on record. The company that a few weeks ago aimed at a $6 trillion market cap now sits around $4.3 trillion. A $1.6 trillion loss over the past 24 days is a record. Comparable $1 trillion episodes have occurred with Apple and SpaceX.

The gap between the daily trading performance of the S&P 500 and NVIDIA is unprecedented. In the market's history, there have been only three prior instances when a stock fell by 4% and above, while the broad index rose by 2% and more, the last in May 2009, when the chipmaker's market cap was a modest $5 billion. Today, NVIDIA represents an eye-watering 6.7% share of the US equity market.

NVIDIA versus SOX dynamics

Even if Jensen Huang fights to remain CEO after the spy allegations, a board probe could lead to a leadership change. Tighter controls on chip sales to China are another clear risk. In any case, the company's path has diverged from the S&P 500's, which is one more reminder that a single issuer, even a dominant one, is not the market.

Investors were more troubled by the prospect that Democrats might undermine the US economy by banning the construction and commissioning of data centers, a factor that contributed to the S&P 500's record capitalization loss on Black Thursday, November 5. That narrative is turning into a meme. It's absurd to assume the new Congress will cut the branch that supports the US economy.

While the AI trade may be shifting from "show me" to "prove it," investors are demanding evidence of investment efficacy; it's too early to call a bubble pop. Especially given that the labor market and the US economy remain resilient, and slowing inflation could reduce the Fed's need to raise rates further.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows a bullish reaction to an inside bar. Long positions opened near the bar's peak around 7,445 have proved correct. A fresh high above 7,575 would justify adding to long positions.

This is a positive signal in terms of the gesture's size, but not in scale. By comparison, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week — so Strategy's buy covers only about 6% of that outflow. I believe the $188 million STRC buyback is more important than the Bitcoin purchase itself: it supports the preferred shares, which on November 4 returned to par of $100 for the first time since May, but it also uses funds that could otherwise have gone into BTC.

Bitmine, Tom Lee's firm, bought another 9,587 ETH over the past week, taking its holdings to 6.07 million tokens — about 4.97% of the total supply. Over the last six weeks, the company added roughly 450k ETH, and it has about 35k ETH left to reach its announced 5% target — roughly three to four weeks at the current pace. Tom Lee said purchases would stop after the target is reached, and that is the main risk for Ethereum: the single regular large buyer that was accumulating tokens into a falling market will exit the game.

Against this backdrop, Tom Lee expects a crypto bull market within the next 24–36 months. He views the prolonged stagnation in Ethereum more as investor impatience than a reflection of real prospects. On November 3, Tom Lee said the market was at the bottom, and that selling after the Binance hack was likely already over. Since then, Bitcoin slipped from $80,500 to $74,800, and Ethereum dropped from $2,433 to below $2,150, so the short?term forecast has not yet been confirmed.

I do not rule out that until the US inflation data released today, Bitcoin will remain below $75,500 with a test of $73,800, and Ethereum below $2,143. Purchases by Strategy and Bitmine cushion the decline but do not change the trend, while ETFs continue losing hundreds of millions of dollars a week. When Bitmine reaches 5% and stops, Ethereum will lose a buyer, and Lee's bullish scenario will require a new purchaser — that is what to watch in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin

The nearest range runs between support at $74,600 and resistance at $75,000, and the trading plan is built around two mirrored directions with full breakout and bounce scenarios. Buys: a confident break above $75,000 opens the way to $75,500, where it makes sense to take profits and consider a short on the retracement; the condition is price above the 50?day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero. If price falls below $74,600 but the downside break fails and buyers quickly reclaim the level, a buy is permissible targeting first $75,000 and then $75,500.

Sells are mirrored: a confirmed close below $74,600 gives a short targeting $73,800, provided the 50?day MA is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If price rises to $75,000 but the breakout does not hold, consider a short back to $74,600 and then $73,800.

Ethereum

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: the working range is between support at $2,110 and resistance at $2,121. A breakout above $2,121 opens the way to $2,143, where it makes sense to take profits and consider a short on a retracement; the condition is price above the 50?day MA and Awesome above zero. If price falls below $2,110 but the drop is not confirmed, and buyers quickly reclaim the level, a buy is acceptable, targeting first $2,121 and then $2,143.

A sell is possible on a confirmed close below $2,110, targeting $2,090, provided the 50?day MA is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If price moves up to $2,121 but the breakout fails to hold, consider a short back to $2,110 and then $2,090. Both indicators are used only as filters to reject false moves, not as standalone entry signals; decisions should be made only after real price confirmation at the specified levels.

Political arithmetic also works against escalation. Democrats in Congress are discussing whether to use the December 11 government shutdown deadline to pressure the president to end the conflict. Domestic instability in Israel adds uncertainty as well: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority at the end of October.

However, there is no real progress yet. Iran demands the lifting of the maritime blockade of its ports and sanctions relief, while Washington seeks an end to attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and concessions on the nuclear program. Secretary of State Marco Rubio cooled breakout hopes on Sunday, calling some of Tehran's demands "outrageous and absurd." Infrastructure risks remain: on Monday the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia near Medina was attacked, causing a limited fire that was quickly extinguished. Last week, Brent posted the sharpest weekly decline since April 2020 (excluding contract roll effects), and such pace is rarely sustainable.

Three key reports are ahead: today the US Energy Information Administration's monthly review, OPEC's report on Wednesday, and the International Energy Agency's review on Friday. They will show how quickly supply is outpacing demand. All this suggests oil is currently trading on expectations of a deal rather than on real changes in deliveries. I believe that Brent will most likely hold in the $85–$92 range in the coming sessions, and further declines will require confirmation of progress in negotiations. If a new attack in the Strait of Hormuz or a breakdown of talks returns escalation, I would not rule out a quick return above $97, where the price was as recently as yesterday.

Technical picture on oil

Buyers need to take the near resistance at $87. That would allow a target of $89, above which it will be rather difficult to push. The farther target is the $92 area. On a drop, bears will try to take control of $84. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to long positions and push oil down to a low of $81 with the prospect of reaching $78.

The main reason for Monday's gain was oil. Brent fell to $97 after trading near $116 on October 30, as the market began to expect a breakthrough in talks with Iran following the US elections. Notably, this year, gold and oil have mostly moved in opposite directions: expensive energy boosts inflation and tightens Fed policy, while cheaper oil relieves some pressure on a non-yielding asset like gold. In that dynamic, gold buyers and energy importers benefit, while oil exporters and those betting on persistent shortages lose out.

Gold is being held back by Fed policy. On Monday, Austan Goolsbee and Tom Barkin pointed to a strong economy and inflationary pressure, and Goolsbee added that the data-center boom is beginning to look like overheating demand that central banks typically respond to with tighter policy. Note that in October he still left both a hike and a pause as possibilities, so the tone has become noticeably firmer. With the funds rate at 3.75–4.00% and the CME pricing roughly a 79% chance of a December 9 hike — and October payrolls showing a 165k increase versus a 65k forecast — each such confirmation of further tightening makes gold less attractive, which is why the rally is failing to gain traction.

Dollar weakness helps. The dollar index was little changed on Tuesday after a 0.5% drop on Monday, and a cheaper dollar makes the metal more accessible to overseas buyers. However, that support is limited: when US bond yields fall along with oil, dollar pressure eases, but markets still price in more rate hikes. In the meantime, gold lacks a clear direction, so large investors are staying sidelined. As a result, short-term moves are being driven by trend strategies and physical demand.

The next key catalyst is US inflation. The market expects monthly headline CPI to slow to 0.3% from 0.6% in September, with core CPI at 0.2% after 0.3%. Speeches by Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, and Michelle Bowman are also on the calendar, and any hawkish comments will increase pressure on the metal. If the data come in softer than expected, gold has a chance to hold above $4,100, since the market would begin to doubt a March rate hike.

All this means gold is currently stuck between soft oil and hawkish Fed rhetoric. I think that before the inflation report is released, the metal will most likely trade around $4,100 without a clear direction, and after the report, its path will depend on the pace of price growth. If inflation exceeds expectations, I would not rule out a return to $4,000; with softer data and further oil weakness, gold could retest last week's highs.

Technical picture on gold

Buyers need to take near resistance at $4,140. That would allow a target of $4,192, above which it will be rather difficult to push. The next higher target is the $4,249 area. On a drop, bears will try to take control of $4,062. If they succeed, a breakout of that range would deliver a serious blow to long positions and drive gold down to a low of $4,001 with the prospect of reaching $3,954.

The primary driver behind the rebound is oil. Brent slipped below $92/bbl after falling by almost 6% on Monday and is trading at August lows, compared with about $116 on October 30. Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran would be unnecessary, and the market read that as a sign the conflict could be winding down after the midterms that underlined his political weakness.

Note that last week's sell-off began with politics. Chipmakers took the brunt after the market saw Democrats' wins in both chambers as a threat of tougher oversight of the AI sector. As late as November 4, the results were viewed as favorable for the largest tech firms because a more active state could curb data-center spending, but by November 5, the narrative flipped — and calls by Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa for a moratorium on new data centers amplified fears. The sell-off was driven more by positioning than fundamentals, and rhetoric from Texas Democrats is already softening.

Anthropic released updated Mythos and Fable model versions ahead of its long-awaited IPO. Reuters reports the company filed and then withdrew a document suggesting it might raise as much as $69.3 billion. By comparison, Anthropic's Q3 revenue was roughly $17 billion with 12-fold growth, and the filing came in late October. Market chatter suggests that the IPO could take place as early as November 19–20.

However, the main focus today is US inflation data for October. Headline CPI is expected at +0.3% m/m after +0.6% in September; core +0.2% after +0.3%. Some believe the Fed will pause if inflation keeps easing, and softer AI spending alongside lower oil prices strengthens that case. Yet Goolsbee and Barkin spoke on November 9 about persistent inflation, so a pause remains a view held by part of the market rather than a regulator consensus.

On the S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the resistance level of $7,574. That would confirm upside momentum and open the way toward $7,607. Equally important for bulls is to hold control above $7,633, which would reinforce buyers' positions. In case of a downward move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,544. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,518 and open the path to $7,495.

Year-over-year numbers will be messier. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish an official year-over-year comparison for October because last year's October data was not collected during the government shutdown, so early headlines will be based on analyst calculations. Unofficial estimates range from 3.7% to 3.9% for headline and from 2.5% to 2.8% for core versus 3.7% and 2.6% in September. Those discrepancies are inevitable and add nervousness into the data release.

The market approaches the print with hawkish expectations. On October 28, the Fed left the policy rate at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a rate hike, and on November 5, Hammack said that policy should be restrictive. The October jobs report was strong — 165k payrolls vs. a 65k forecast and 0.4% monthly average hourly earnings — and Goolsbee and Barkin spoke on Monday about persistent inflation. The odds of a 25-bp hike in December are roughly 78.8% versus about 85% in late October, and swaps still price in about two hikes by next summer, whereas a month ago, three were fully priced in. So, the December move is largely in the price already, and this release may not change that materially unless it surprises.

Crucially, the bond market is currently siding with the hawks. Treasury yields across the curve fell to September lows after the tech sell-off pushed investors toward safe havens. The 10-year yield has moved back to about 4.88%. However, another hot inflation print would likely erase some of that decline quickly — only a surprise can materially shift priced expectations.

Currency scenarios are as follows. Under a soft print — core inflation of 0.1% or headline inflation of below 0.2% — the probability of a December hike would likely drop, yields would fall, and the dollar would surrender some gains. The euro and the pound would be beneficiaries. If the print is in line with expectations (headline inflation of 0.3% and core inflation of 0.2%), the market reaction is likely to be short-lived. A hot report (core inflation of 0.3% or higher, or headline inflation of 0.4%) would reopen the debate about faster tightening. December odds would jump above 85%, and a March move would become more likely. Yields would move back toward 5%, and the dollar would regain a firmer footing.

Those dynamics would hit the euro, the pound, and the yen most directly since the Fed?ECB rate differential — roughly 1.25–1.50 percentage points — would again argue for dollar strength. The yen would weaken alongside higher US yields. Let me remind you that Japanese consumer spending fell by 6.8% in September, which limits the Bank of Japan's room to tighten, and expectations for a BOJ move on December 18 remain a key constraint. Past interventions also cap USD/JPY upside: this summer, Japan intervened three times for a total of £15.4 trillion.

Overall, today's report is more likely to confirm than to alter the Fed's path. My base case is an in-line to slightly softer print, which would elicit a moderate, short-lived currency reaction and leave the dollar slightly softer in the near term. The risk is one-sided: if core inflation prints at 0.3%, I would not rule out a return of the euro and the pound toward Friday's lows because a December hike and further rate rises into spring would cease to be contested.

As for EUR/USD technicals, buyers need to take 1.1245. Only that would open a test of 1.1270. From there, a run to 1.1300 is possible, but achieving it without support from large players will be difficult. On a pullback, I expect increased buying activity only near 1.1215. If that level lacks bids, I would recommend waiting for a dip to a fresh low at 1.1185 or initiating long positions at 1.1165.

Regarding GBP/USD technicals, pound buyers must take the immediate resistance level of 1.3460. That would allow a move toward 1.3481, above which further gains would be challenging. The next upside target is around 1.3501. On a decline, bears will seek control of 1.3430. If they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.3399, with the prospect of extending weakness to 1.3370.

Strong US employment data gives Fed officials cover to sound hawkish. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin says that with healthy demand and stubbornly high inflation, the direction of policy is clear. His Chicago counterpart, Austan Goolsbee, argues that the Fed must combat economic overheating that is also fueling the AI investment boom. Market odds of a December interest rate hike climbed to 84%, and the probability of two tightening moves over the next year rose to 71%.

US Treasury yields dynamics

In theory, that should push Treasury yields higher and strengthen the dollar. In practice, the bond market has continued to move lower along with Brent, and the greenback is reacting more to yields and oil than to Fed rhetoric, clearing a path higher for EUR/USD.

De-escalation in the Middle East is another negative factor for the dollar. Donald Trump called renewed strikes on Iran unlikely and appointed longtime opponent of war Stephen Miller as his new chief of staff. Democrats are debating whether to push the president to withdraw forces from the region.

Oil price dynamics across different delivery dates

Investors are unwinding the "Trump premium" priced into oil, and Brent has fallen by more than 20% from its October peaks. Reuters data shows that in October, OPEC production recovered to about 90% of pre-conflict levels, and China's oil imports returned to late-February levels. Even after the drop, crude remains roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels.

Geopolitical risk direction is still unclear. Iran continues to target tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran is watching whether the White House's stance will change after the midterms. If talks stall, oil could reverse higher and give the dollar back some ground.

Another headwind for the greenback is the prospect of softer US inflation in October. A notable cooldown in CPI could open the way for EUR/USD above 1.13. Faster consumer price gains would push the pair back toward 1.12.

In my view, in this round, the market is cheering for oil, not the Fed—and the Fed should get used to it.

Technically, the daily EUR/USD chart shows an expanding wedge pattern. A return above fair value near 1.122 is a positive sign for bulls. However, a sustained rally requires a breakout and consolidation above the upper boundary of the 1.113–1.127 trading range.

The rebound was driven by dip buying. Nvidia shares fell by about 6% to $170.24, a level last seen on March 31, after reports that Jensen Huang may have been a target of Chinese intelligence, but later recouped some losses to $179.92. Beijing rejected the allegations. The market, however, chose not to sell off further, which supported gains in the Nasdaq Composite and in the crypto market, which has recently been highly correlated with the Nasdaq because of AI.

Oil provided additional support. WTI fell to $86.19/bbl, the lowest since September 1, before recovering to $88.20. The wider picture for Bitcoin is mixed. It remains trapped between the 21-week moving average at $73,100 and the 50-week moving average at $75,500. Many analysts see scope for a decline to the 200-week average around $67,800, which the price touched in mid-August. I believe that Bitcoin's muted response to the Nasdaq drop undermines the thesis of a flow of funds from AI stocks into crypto that was previously suggested. For now, as the tech sector retraces, capital is returning there rather than to digital assets. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, $1.28 billion last week, remain a headwind.

US inflation data due today will set the direction. I see three scenarios for Bitcoin.

Soft print: if core CPI is 0.1% or headline CPI does not exceed 0.2%, the probability of a December hike will fall below 70%, and yields and the dollar will decline, giving Bitcoin a shot at breaking the 50-week average at $75,492 and reaching $75,691, the cost base of short-term holders. A push toward $79,300 would still be distant. I view any rally as partial, given ETF outflows and the Nasdaq correlation.

In-line print: if CPI matches consensus, the price will likely stay in the 73,078–75,492 corridor, and range traders will be the winners.

Hot print: if core CPI prints 0.3% or higher, the odds of a hike will rise back toward 85% and above, yields will climb, and Bitcoin will likely lose 73,078. The next target would be 67,755, with leverage in the market amplifying the move.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Bitcoin

The immediate upside target is $75,300. Clearing that level opens a path to $76,900 and then $78,500. A break above $78,500 would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers should emerge at $72,800. A drop below that could quickly push BTC toward $71,100, with a further target near $69,400.

Ethereum

Consolidation above $2,149 would open the path to $2,194. The next upside target would be $2,234. A break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected to step in at $2,084. A move below that level could send ETH toward $2,028, with a further target near $1,974.

What's on the chart:

• Red levels show support/resistance where the price is expected to either slow or accelerate.
• Green line: 50-day moving average.
• Blue line: 100-day moving average.
• Light green line: 200-day moving average.

Crosses or the price tests of these averages typically either halt a move or set a new market impulse.

Barkin said the foundation of resilience is corporate profits. In the second quarter, the median S&P 500 company's profits rose by 15%, aggregate profits were up 31%, and the third quarter is tracking similarly. That strength was fueled by explosive gains in the tech sector, unexpectedly strong demand, productivity gains, restrained wages, tax changes, tariff rollbacks, and the use of cheap inventories. Large firms have benefited; small businesses, Barkin notes, are noticeably worse off.

Strong corporate balance sheets continue to support spending and employment. Business investment rose by 12.7% in Q3 and is not solely driven by AI-infrastructure builds. Firms are not hiring aggressively, but they are not laying people off either. Initial jobless claims are at multi-decade lows, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October from 4.2% in September.

The main problem is broad-based rising costs. Barkin listed health insurance, gasoline and diesel, freight by truck and ship, business travel, memory chips, interest rates, and tariffs. Some firms delayed passing costs through to prices, expecting the Middle East conflict to be short-lived, which explains relatively soft early-summer data. Now, businesses say they are shifting accumulated costs onto customers and meeting less resistance than before the pandemic. Let me remind you that inflation has exceeded the 2% target for more than five years. The PCE price index for September was 3.6% headline and 3.1% core, with monthly gains the fastest since March.

Consumers, Barkin observed, are gloomy but continue to spend. The Michigan sentiment index has hit record lows five times this year, though it rose to 51.0 in November from 48.0 (consensus 48.0), and one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.3% from 4.7%. Real incomes are barely rising; wages increased by 3.1% y/y versus a 2.9% forecast, yet nominal core spending over six months rose by 6.9% y/y. Households are switching to private-label goods, substituting cheaper meats for beef, repairing instead of replacing, dropping insurance coverages, and drawing down savings. Barkin called this "borrowing from the future," and warned that weaker households will bear the cost of that model.

Wealthier Americans are sustaining demand from the other side. They have benefited from higher equity and housing values and account for a disproportionate share of spending. Michigan data shows that over 40% of high-income consumers plan to spend as usual even on goods with strong price increases, more than twice the share of lower-income consumers.

Barkin's most serious risk is AI, which cuts both ways. If returns disappoint, business investment will slow, followed by equities and high-income consumer spending. If AI outperforms and displaces more workers than expected, spending will also fall. In both scenarios, the focus would shift from inflation to the Fed's other mandate—maximum employment. That is why caution is warranted.

The next test arrives today: US inflation data for October, with prior prints at 3.7% y/y headline and 2.6% core. I view Barkin's comments as supportive of a 25-bp hike on December 9 rather than a larger step, and as dollar-positive while the gap with the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate remains around 1.25–1.50 percentage points. If inflation prints above expectations, I don't rule out the market seriously pricing in a March hike as well, which would increase downside pressure on the euro and the pound. A softer report would likely pare some dollar gains but probably wouldn't alter the broader path for interest rates.

As for EUR/USD technicals, buyers need to capture 1.1245. Only that would open a test of 1.1270, from which a push to 1.1300 is possible, though doing so without large-player support will be difficult. On a pullback, I expect increased buying activity only near 1.1215. If that level lacks bids, it would be wise to wait for a decline to a fresh low at 1.1185 or to open long positions at 1.1165.

Regarding GBP/USD technicals, pound buyers need to take the immediate resistance level of 1.3460. That would enable a move toward 1.3481, above which further gains would be challenging. The next upside target is 1.3501. On a decline, bears will try to seize 1.3430. If successful, a range break would deal a heavy blow to bulls, pushing the pound sterling toward a low of 1.3399, with a prospect of extending weakness toward 1.3370.

The test of the 157.94 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for a short position on the US dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

The yen began trading today on a negative note, following disappointing economic data from Japan. Inflation-adjusted household spending fell by 6.8% year over year in September, compared with an expected decline of 3.1%, while the previous month's decrease was also 3.1%. This was the sharpest contraction since 2020, with transportation, education, and recreation making the largest contributions to the decline. On a month-over-month basis, spending fell by 2.8% after seasonal adjustment. Other figures also confirmed the weakness in domestic consumption. The Economy Watchers Survey came in at 46.1 in October, compared with a forecast of 46.8, while the current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1,817.7 billion in September, against an expected JPY 2,790.0 billion.

This presents a serious dilemma for the Bank of Japan. The interest rate remains at 1.25%, following the central bank's decision to leave it unchanged on October 30 in an 8–1 vote. For the first time, the regulator also stated that underlying inflation had reached its 2% target, while acknowledging the risk of it exceeding that level. Many market participants expect the next rate increase on December 18, with the labor market providing the main justification. Cash earnings rose by 4.6% year over year in September, compared with a forecast of 3.8% and 3.9% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since 1997. Real wages also increased by 2.2%. However, despite rising incomes, consumers continue to cut spending. This raises questions about the possibility of accelerating monetary tightening, as weak demand calls for lower inflationary pressures, while higher borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, place additional pressure on the same households.

The Japanese authorities are also attempting to support household purchasing power. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has proposed reducing the consumption tax on food from 8% to 1% for two years, starting in April. The implications for the yen are mixed. Strong wage growth keeps a December rate hike as the baseline scenario, while weak consumer spending makes it difficult to justify a faster pace of monetary tightening.

The risk of government intervention also remains a factor limiting selling pressure on the yen. During the summer, Japan intervened in the currency market three times, spending a record JPY 15.4 trillion over three days. Of this amount, JPY 7.98 trillion was spent on July 30, followed by another JPY 5.55 trillion and JPY 1.87 trillion on the subsequent days. For the first time in almost three decades, the operation was coordinated with the United States. In addition, both countries confirmed that Japan could obtain dollar liquidity through the Federal Reserve's FIMA Repo Facility without selling US Treasury securities. This removes the argument that Japan has limited capacity to conduct currency interventions. If the US dollar remains strong, the yen is likely to continue losing ground amid weak Japanese economic data. However, the decline is unlikely to be particularly rapid, as the market remains mindful of Tokyo's recent interventions.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will primarily be on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: USD/JPY can be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around 158.10 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target at 158.48 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.48, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in anticipation of a downward move of 30–35 points from that level. It is preferable to consider buying the pair again during corrective pullbacks and significant declines in USD/JPY.

Important! Before opening a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move upward from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 157.90 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.10 and 158.48 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: USD/JPY can be sold today only after the 157.90 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 157.59, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Sellers could return to the market at any time, as even the slightest indication from the central bank could trigger renewed selling pressure.

Important! Before opening a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 158.10 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.90 and 157.59 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when position sizing is not managed properly and large trading volumes are used.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clearly defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3424 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential.

The pound rose significantly yesterday, fully recovering the losses accumulated after Friday's US labor market report. Today, GBP/USD is holding around 1.3448. In the evening, Federal Reserve officials Goolsbee and Barkin made hawkish statements, emphasizing the fight against inflation, but pound buyers largely ignored their comments. The increase in US wholesale inventories by 0.7%, compared with a forecast of 0.6%, also failed to restore demand for the dollar. This suggests that the pound's current appreciation is driven not by UK economic data but by weakness in the US currency. UK economic figures released last week were generally disappointing. This morning, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor came in at 1.1%, compared with a forecast of 1.2%. As a result, the pound remains dependent on external factors, with sentiment toward the US dollar serving as the main market driver.

There are no UK economic data releases scheduled for the first half of the day. The only notable event is a speech by Sarah Breeden of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee. A hawkish tone from Breeden could provide additional support for the pair, particularly if she confirms that the central bank does not intend to pause its tightening cycle. It is worth recalling that the interest rate was raised to 4.00% on November 5, with a unanimous 9-0-0 vote. In September, however, only three members had supported a rate increase, while Bailey also indicated at the time that a second increase was possible if energy prices returned to their previous levels. The market currently puts the probability of a December rate hike at approximately 50%. Therefore, every hawkish comment from committee members carries considerable weight.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will primarily be on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: The pound can be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3454 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target at 1.3477 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3477, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in anticipation of a downward move of 30–35 points from that level. Further gains in the pound today can only be expected as part of a corrective move.

Important! Before opening a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move upward from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3440 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3454 and 1.3477 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: The pound can be sold today after the 1.3440 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3418, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Negative news could restore downward pressure on the pound.

Important! Before opening a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3454 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3440 and 1.3418 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when position sizing is not managed properly and large trading volumes are used.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clearly defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.