The wave structure on the hourly chart has turned bullish. The most recently completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave surpassed the previous high. The geopolitical situation remains persistently negative, as Iran and the United States continue blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, while negotiations are currently not taking place. Traders had been expecting support from the Federal Reserve for about a month, but those hopes were dashed last week. After a prolonged pause, the bulls have gone on the offensive.

Friday's news flow once again favored the euro. It is worth recalling that a day earlier, second-quarter GDP reports released in both Europe and the United States showed slowing economic growth in the U.S. and accelerating growth in the Eurozone. Combined with rising inflation in the EU and the ECB's willingness—unlike the Federal Reserve—to tighten monetary policy further, the outlook for the euro remains highly supportive. In my view, the bulls could have launched their offensive well before the end of July. However, events unfolded as they did. This week, market attention will focus on the U.S. labor market and unemployment data. If these reports also fail to deliver strong results, the dollar is likely to continue weakening. The labor market is currently the dollar's last remaining source of support. If July employment data proves strong, the Federal Reserve is likely to shift its focus back to inflation, potentially paving the way for renewed monetary tightening in September. If the labor market disappoints again, Kevin Warsh and his colleagues are unlikely to raise interest rates.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, suggesting not merely another bullish attempt but the beginning of a sustained upward trend. Consolidation above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514 supports the case for further gains toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1578. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 15,490 long positions and opened 15,691 short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war involving Iran, while over the past eighteen weeks the positioning has become more balanced amid a fragile ceasefire and market hopes for an end to the conflict. Speculators currently hold a total of 205,000 long positions and 277,000 short positions. The bears are once again regaining the upper hand.

Overall, from a long-term perspective, large market participants continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Naturally, the wide range of global events—which have been in no short supply in recent years—continues to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market remains focused on developments in the Middle East, where hostilities repeatedly subside and then resume. The market initially ignored the announcement of a ceasefire and later also ignored the renewed escalation of the conflict. As a result, geopolitical factors are no longer the sole driver of the U.S. dollar's direction.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Retail Sales (06:00 UTC).
• United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for August 3 contains only two scheduled releases, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI being the key event. As a result, macroeconomic data is expected to influence market sentiment mainly during the second half of Monday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Long positions were justified following a rebound from 1.1472 or after consolidation above 1.1507 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1551. Today, long positions may be considered after consolidation above 1.1551, with a target at 1.1620. Short positions may be considered following a rebound from 1.1551 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1507 and 1.1472.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

On Monday, EUR/USD reached a new high for August, advancing to the 200-day EMA and 100-day SMA resistance levels. The pair appears poised for further gains amid broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of major currencies, continues to decline after reaching last year's high. The drop comes as falling oil prices prompt investors to reassess their expectations for further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he intends to limit military operations against Iran, stating that regional allies have reached conditions for ending the five-month conflict. This decision, together with OPEC+'s announcement on Sunday to increase oil production in September, has placed significant downward pressure on oil prices.According to Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, the recent rally in the U.S. dollar is losing momentum. The bank believes that "the dollar's rally that began in May has likely run its course, and the DXY could return to the 96.00–100.00 range."

In addition, Gross National Product (GNP)—which measures the economic activity of U.S. residents and businesses, including income earned abroad—suggests that the previous support for the U.S. dollar from solid domestic economic activity is being undermined by concerns over current policy. In particular, market concerns center on the possibility that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh may be unable to effectively maintain a sufficiently restrictive monetary policy stance to contain inflation, increasing the risk that the Fed could fall behind the curve in addressing inflationary pressures.

Furthermore, aggressive short-covering in the Japanese yen has also contributed to the weakening of the U.S. dollar. By contrast, the euro continues to receive support from resilient eurozone inflation data, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates again in September. This backdrop remains supportive for EUR/USD, as traders await a series of key U.S. macroeconomic releases at the beginning of the month, starting with Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI, which could provide additional market momentum.

Recent inflation data, together with strong second-quarter 2026 GDP figures, have further strengthened the case for additional monetary policy tightening. Today's data should reinforce expectations of another ECB rate hike in September, as resilient economic growth and slightly stronger price pressures give the central bank room to maintain a restrictive policy stance.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is consolidating near resistance and attempting to break higher toward the psychologically important 1.1600 level.

However, technical indicators present a mixed picture:

• MACD suggests that bullish momentum is beginning to weaken.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory, indicating that buyers still retain the upper hand.

A key support area is now provided by the convergence of the 50-day EMA and the 50-day SMA. However, for the bulls to establish full control of the market, they must secure a decisive break above the 200-day SMA.

The table below shows today's percentage change in the U.S. dollar against the major currencies. Under the current market conditions, the U.S. dollar is outperforming the British pound.

The wave structure remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. This indicates that the bears have taken control of the market, although they could lose the initiative again in the near future. In my view, the bearish impulse that dominated the first half of 2026 has already run its course, and only geopolitical developments could prevent the bulls from extending their advance. Geopolitical conditions remain highly uncertain.

There was virtually no significant news on Friday, and traders continued to digest the policy signals from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. In my opinion, the market's reaction reflected how traders currently view the policy guidance of the two central banks. Confidence that the FOMC will continue tightening monetary policy is gradually fading, while expectations of further policy tightening by the Bank of England are strengthening.

Earlier in 2026, the U.S. dollar regularly benefited from safe-haven demand amid the conflict in the Middle East. However, for several months now, the market has become less driven by geopolitical headlines. At the end of last week, Donald Trump decided to cancel a planned new military operation against Iran, reducing the immediate risk of further escalation. Nevertheless, the distinction between escalation and de-escalation has become increasingly blurred. The conflict itself continues, and that remains the key issue. Commercial shipping still cannot pass freely and safely through the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices continue to fluctuate sharply as markets react to changing signals from the White House. This week, market participants will closely monitor any new negotiations between Iran and the United States, as well as the U.S. employment and unemployment reports.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD advanced to the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. A rebound from this area would favor the U.S. dollar and support a decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. A confirmed breakout and consolidation above the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level would open the way for further gains toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the technical indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among the Non-commercial group became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculative traders declined by 2,824 contracts, while Short positions increased by 6,429 contracts. The overall positioning now stands at approximately 61,000 Long positions versus 126,000 Short positions. Although bears still maintain a significant advantage, the gap has been gradually narrowing. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestioned, but the changing fundamental backdrop has made the outlook less clear.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. In the near term, however, market direction will depend less on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, and more on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. Over recent months, markets had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before making any meaningful progress. There is also no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.

Economic Calendar – United States and United Kingdom

United States

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)

On August 3, the economic calendar contains only one event that can be considered significant. The economic data is expected to influence market sentiment during the second half of Monday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Sell: Short positions may be considered if the pair closes below the 1.3454–1.3458 level on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.3397 and 1.3348.

Buy: Long positions became valid after the rebound from 1.3397, with targets at 1.3458 and 1.3526. The first target has already been reached. Existing long positions may continue to be held with the second target remaining in focus.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Today, futures on US indices rose alongside European markets after a sharp fall in oil following President Trump's statement that new US–Iran talks had begun — a development that boosted hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures were up about 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.8%, marking a positive start to the month for Wall Street after a volatile July. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose by 0.4%, led by travel and auto stocks. Asian equities, however, fell on renewed weakness in South Korean chipmakers, underlining that the AI re-rating remains far from complete.

Brent plunged by 7.3% to $81.55/bbl after Trump said he had agreed to call off a planned strike on Iran following allied calls to pursue talks. Treasuries rallied across the curve. The 10-year yield eased by five basis points to 4.69% after hitting a multi-year high earlier in the week.

FX markets also reacted: the yen strengthened by 1.4% to 155.23 per dollar amid speculation about further interventions after coordinated intervention with US support last week.

Market focus is now squarely on progress toward a peace accord or, more importantly, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — until then volatility will persist, particularly with AI trading still the dominant theme.

As noted above, the AI narrative continued to drive Asian bourses. The regional semiconductor index fell by 1.5% as Samsung and SK Hynix each lost roughly 8%, offsetting gains among Japanese chipmakers such as Renesas Electronics and Kioxia Holdings. South Korea's KOSPI, a barometer of AI investment, fell by more than 5% after a record 18% surge on Friday. Japan's Nikkei eased, and the broader MSCI Asia index lost about 0.6%. Against that backdrop, Alibaba stood out, rising 6.5% in Hong Kong after unveiling a flagship AI model that analysts say rivals global leaders such as Anthropic's Fable. On Friday, Chinese DeepSeek also released a public beta of its V4 Flash API, demonstrating progress in agent capabilities.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,544. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,574. Controlling $7,607 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,495 and open the way to $7,474.

The price test at 1.1485 occurred as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target mark of 1.1463. However, the dollar's growth was short-lived, and by the end of the session, the American currency gave back its gains against the euro. In the first half of the day, the pair's decline was driven by weak labor market data from Germany and inflation data in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, the euro managed to recover. As soon as the impact of the European data dissipated, risk appetite began to recover, and the EUR/USD pair regained lost ground.

Today, the euro enters the first half of the day with a focus on July data for Germany's manufacturing sector and the Eurozone. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in manufacturing is considered a leading indicator, as it is among the first to capture changes in business sentiment, and its dynamics directly influence expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate and, through them, the euro's exchange rate. Since the revised data has been published, the key will be the direction of the revision relative to the initial values. An upward revision could help the euro continue to rise against the dollar. Until the data is released, the euro is likely to remain restrained, and the pair's direction will be determined by how closely the revised figures align with market expectations.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro can be considered when the price reaches around 1.1540 (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1574. At point 1.1574, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1523 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1540 and 1.1574.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1523 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1500, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return in case of poor data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1540 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1523 and 1.1500.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3447 occurred as the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulting in a rise in the pair towards the target level of 1.3484. Last Friday clearly demonstrated how fragile the dollar's strength was, as it lost the morning advantage by the end of the day. The upward correction in the American currency in the first half of the session was driven by weak data; however, the situation changed thereafter. Even with decent reports from the U.S., the pound managed to regain its positions against the dollar, indicating the preservation of a bullish market in the near term.

Today, the pound enters the day focused on the July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector, which will be the main internal guide for the session. The index is a leading indicator, as it is among the first to signal changes in industry sentiment, and its dynamics directly influence expectations regarding the Bank of England's policy and, in turn, the exchange rate of the British currency. Since these are revised data, the market will be watching for how the initial estimates are adjusted. An upward revision, which market participants expect, could trigger new long positions on GBP/USD. A revival in industry will reinforce arguments for the economy's resilience and support the pound against the dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3476 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3514 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3514, I plan to exit the longs and open short positions back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth for the pound today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3451 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3476 and 1.3514.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3451 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3416, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3476 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3451 and 1.3416.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Weak labor market data from Germany and inflation data in the Eurozone drove the morning rise in the dollar and the fall in the euro. Employment data reflect the state of the bloc's largest economy, while inflation figures affect expectations regarding the European Central Bank's policy; therefore, their weakness logically weakened the euro at the time. However, the dollar was unable to maintain its gains. As the initial reaction faded, risk appetite returned, and the American currency lost its morning advantage. This led to a recovery for the euro and the pound, as by the end of the day the pressure on risk assets eased, allowing both European currencies to recover previously incurred losses against the dollar.

In the first half of the day today, attention regarding the euro will focus on the July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in Germany and the Eurozone. This indicator is based on surveys of purchasing managers and reflects the state of the industry, with values above 50 indicating sector growth and values below indicating contraction. Since these are revised estimates, the market will primarily monitor how the preliminary data is adjusted, as deviations from the initial figures will prompt a reaction. If the numbers are revised upwards, the euro will have a basis to continue its growth against the dollar. Stronger industrial activity will reinforce confidence in the resilience of the bloc's economy and support expectations of a stringent ECB policy, benefiting the euro. Conversely, a weak revision will dampen bullish sentiment, and the EUR/USD pair risks a correction by the end of the European session.

As for the pound, traders will also focus on the same manufacturing PMI data, but for the UK in July. As noted above, this indicator is also based on surveys of purchasing managers. It reflects the state of the industry, where the 50-point mark divides growth from contraction, and its dynamics directly influence expectations regarding the Bank of England's interest rate. It is expected that the data will be revised upwards, which could provoke new buying of GBP/USD. Stronger industrial activity will bolster confidence in the resilience of the British economy and provide support for the pound against the dollar.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the figures are significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.1557, which may lead to an increase in the euro towards 1.1592 and 1.1610;
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.1525, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1504 and 1.1482;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.3500, which may lead to an increase in the pound toward 1.3535 and 1.3585;
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.3460, which may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3435 and 1.3402;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout of the level 156.73, which may lead to an increase in the dollar toward 157.05 and 157.40;
• Sell on a breakout of the level 156.33, which may lead to a decline in the dollar toward 155.96 and 155.56;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout beyond 1.1552 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout beyond 1.1517 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.3485 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 1.3455 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 0.7050 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 0.7028 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.4040 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 1.4020 on a return to this level;

Magnificent seven dynamics

The market quickly found offsetting gains. Amazon surged by 15% after reporting accelerating cloud revenue, delivering the company its largest one-day market-cap gain in history. Bernstein called the print a "Microsoft 2.0 encore," noting that Microsoft itself posted its best day since 2008 a day earlier.

As a result, the S&P 500 finished higher even though the technology sector, dominated by Apple, closed in the red. The consumer discretionary sector, led by Amazon, jumped by more than 6%. Large caps pushed the market in opposite directions, offsetting volatility.

This tug-of-war has been common this summer. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 3.2% in July, while the Dow advanced, and the S&P 500 was essentially flat. Superficially calm broad indices mask much sharper internal market dynamics: the memory-chip bubble inflated and then burst in just four months, wiping out trillions of paper wealth.

Hyperscalers' spending dynamics

Investors' patience with AI is wearing thin. Tech giants are spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure, but shareholders now demand proof of payoff. Cloud monetization remains the clearest path: AWS operating margin was a striking 39% in Q2.

Earnings season has reached its midpoint, and market attention is gradually refocusing on macro risks. The Middle East conflict, fractures inside the Fed, and persistent inflationary pressure have not gone away. "The macro picture is deteriorating," SpotGamma says The idea that AI will rescue the economy is losing some of its earlier conviction even among prior supporters.

That said, the equal-weighted S&P 500 hit a record last week, and the cap-weighted S&P 500 is still less than 2% from its highs. So for the market as a whole, the drama around a few giants may not yet be decisive.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has seen an inside-bar reversal. The broad index is heading toward fair value. A successful breakout above that zone would justify scaling long positions initiated at 7,450. Initial targets are 7,670 and 7,870.

Analysis:

The primary direction of the euro's main currency pair continues to be defined by the bearish wave that began in January of this year. Over the past two months, a corrective phase in the form of an expanded flat has been developing within this wave structure. The final segment of this wave is currently taking shape.

Forecast:

The upward bias is expected to continue during the coming week. After a likely test of the resistance zone, the pair may reverse and decline toward the support zone. The expected weekly price movement is likely to remain within the nearest opposing support and resistance zones.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.1580–1.1630

Support:

• 1.1370–1.1320

Recommendations:

Buy: Upward potential is limited. Small-volume positions may be considered during individual trading sessions.

Sell: Selling opportunities may arise after confirmed reversal signals appear near the projected resistance zone. Keep in mind that the downside potential is expected to remain limited.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

The short-term trend in USD/JPY has been driven by an upward wave that started at the end of April. The corrective wave (B), which formed as an expanded flat, now appears complete. The upward movement that began on July 30 has reversal potential. If confirmed, it may mark the beginning of a new leg of the primary trend.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the week, the Japanese yen is likely to remain under bearish pressure, implying upward movement in USD/JPY. Price is expected to find support near the projected support zone before reversing higher. A brief test of the lower boundary of the reversal zone cannot be ruled out. The projected resistance marks the upper limit of the expected weekly range.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 159.00–159.50

Support:

• 157.20–156.70

Recommendations:

Buy: Buying opportunities may emerge after confirmed signals appear near the support zone.

Sell: Selling is risky and offers limited profit potential.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

Over recent months, the British pound has continued to strengthen steadily against the Japanese yen. Since mid-July, after reaching the lower boundary of a major resistance zone, the pair has been forming a corrective phase. The final segment of this wave pattern began at the end of last week. The upward movement that started on July 30 also has reversal potential.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the week, GBP/JPY is expected to trade mostly sideways near the projected support zone. A temporary move toward the lower boundary of the zone is possible. Later in the week, the pair may reverse and resume its upward movement toward the projected resistance levels.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 216.40–216.90

Support:

• 212.50–212.00

Recommendations:

Sell: No trading opportunities.

Buy: Buying may become appropriate once confirmed reversal signals appear within the projected reversal zone according to your trading system.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

An upward wave has been developing in USD/CAD since the beginning of May. Since mid-June, a counter-trend corrective movement in the form of an expanded flat has been forming within this structure. The wave still lacks its final segment.

Forecast:

The overall bearish correction is expected to continue during the coming week until it is completed near the support zone. A temporary upward pullback toward the resistance zone is possible during the first part of the week. The probability of increased volatility and renewed price declines is expected to rise closer to the weekend.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.4070–1.4120

Support:

• 1.3920–1.3870

Recommendations:

Buy: No trading opportunities.

Sell: Intraday selling may be considered once confirmed signals appear according to your trading system.

NZD/USD

Brief Analysis:

The downward wave that has been defining the trend in NZD/USD since the end of May remains in progress. The unfinished portion is corrective in nature. The wave is developing as an expanded flat and is approaching completion. The pair has reached the lower boundary of the daily time frame's potential reversal zone.

Weekly Forecast:

During the first half of the week, sideways trading with a slight upward bias is the most likely scenario. A test of the upper boundary of the resistance zone is possible. After that, a reversal is expected, followed by renewed downward movement.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.5900–0.5950

Support:

• 0.5770–0.5720

Recommendations:

Sell: Selling opportunities may arise during individual trading sessions after confirmed reversal signals appear according to your trading system.

Buy: Upward potential is extremely limited and long positions may prove unprofitable.

Bitcoin

Brief Analysis:

Bitcoin has been developing an unfinished bullish wave structure since February of this year. Prices have been moving primarily sideways. Wave analysis indicates that corrective wave (B), which forms part of the final phase of the current structure, is nearing completion. There are currently no signs of an imminent trend reversal.

Weekly Forecast:

At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a downward-moving range. A test of the support zone cannot be ruled out, after which price may continue to trade sideways. The probability of renewed bullish momentum increases toward the weekend.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 69,300.0–70,300.0

Support:

• 62,000.0–61,000.0

Recommendations:

Sell: Selling is risky and offers limited potential.

Buy: Buying opportunities may become relevant once confirmed signals appear near the support zone according to your trading system.

Gold

Analysis:

Gold's unfinished bearish wave pattern has been developing since the end of January. The price extremes form a descending pennant pattern. Wave analysis suggests that the final segment of the current structure has yet to develop. The current price is located within a cluster of potential reversal zones across multiple time frames.

Forecast:

During the first half of the week, another test of the support zone is expected. Afterward, the market may reverse and begin moving higher toward the projected resistance zone.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 4170.0–4220.0

Support:

• 4010.0–3960.0

Recommendations:

Sell: The upward potential following the expected rebound is limited. If selling, it is preferable to trade small position sizes during individual trading sessions.

Buy: The expected upward move has limited potential. Reducing position size may help manage risk.

Notes: In Simplified Wave Analysis (SWA), every wave consists of three segments (A–B–C). The latest unfinished wave is analyzed on each time frame. The dashed lines on the charts indicate the expected price movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of market movements over time.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also showed both a correction and trend growth on Friday. There were no major events in the UK and the U.S. on that day, and the geopolitical situation can no longer provide powerful support to the U.S. dollar. The situation in the Middle East continues to unfold according to the script of classic Mexican soap operas. The conductor of this "Marlborough ballet" remains Donald Trump. The American president is at a deadlock and does not know what to do next with Iran. Military actions yield no results, and Iran has no desire to return to the negotiating table. Moreover, Tehran certainly does not intend to accept Trump's ultimatums or sign an unfavorable and downright dangerous agreement with Washington. Therefore, Trump has no choice but to alternate between new strikes on Iran and conciliatory rhetoric, making statements about an upcoming agreement. This theater has now become a burden on the market. Even the Federal Reserve cannot currently support the American currency, as everyone understands that the policy-tightening outlook is uncertain. The Bank of England is much closer to tightening than the American central bank.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Friday. Initially, the pair bounced off the area of 1.3456-1.3476, allowing for short positions to be opened. However, the pair did not reach the target area. During the American trading session, the pound broke through the 1.3456-1.3476 area, allowing long positions to be opened with an eye on the new week.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has begun a new upward trend. In our view, the British pound will continue to rise, even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly timeframe, a move began from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary a month ago. This movement is not yet complete. The Fed did not support the dollar, and geopolitics cannot sustain it forever; therefore, we see no reason for further strengthening of the American currency.

On Monday, novice traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. Long positions can be considered on a bounce from the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3587-1.3598.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to trade now include 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. There are no major events scheduled in the UK for Monday, while the important ISM manufacturing index will be published in the U.S. This should be noted.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed based on the time it took to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a plethora of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to do so only in the presence of good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to both correct and resume a new upward trend. In the first half of the day, the market was hit by a new wave of disappointment as Eurozone inflation rose only to 2.9% (in line with forecasts), significantly reducing hawkish expectations for the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Additionally, the unemployment rate in Germany rose to 6.4%, which the market did not anticipate. However, in the second half of the day, the market concluded that the likelihood of a second increase in the ECB's key rate remains high and that the American currency has already exhausted its positive factors. Thus, purely on technical grounds, the euro can freely continue its upward movement. On the hourly timeframe, the monthly flat has ended, and a new upward trend has formed. Therefore, we expect further growth of the European currency.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday produced quite a few trading signals that novice traders could easily capitalize on. During the European trading session, the pair bounced off the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing short positions to be opened. A few hours later, the price bounced from the 1.1461-1.1474 area, allowing traders to close short positions at a profit and open long positions. By the end of the day, the euro returned to the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing longs to be closed with a good profit.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the price has exited the sideways channel it spent a month in. Considering all recent global events, we believe that the European currency should continue to show steady growth. Recently, the market has largely ignored all factors in favor of the euro, so a "settling of accounts" may begin, bringing the pair's exchange rate to fair value.

On Monday, novice traders may open shorts targeting 1.1461-1.1474 if the price consolidates below the 1.1527-1.1531 area. New longs can be opened on a bounce from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, targeting 1.1584-1.1594.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, and 1.1745-1.1754. On Monday, only minor publications are scheduled in the Eurozone, while the important ISM manufacturing index will be released in the U.S., which is expected to interest the market. Thus, volatility may increase in the second half of the day.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and the trend is supported by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

There are not many macroeconomic publications scheduled for Monday. The only notable release is the ISM Manufacturing Index for the U.S. in July. Other reports are expected to have little significance for the market. It is also worth noting that this week, a significant amount of important data will be released in the U.S., and, for instance, the NonFarm Payrolls report could further reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy. If the U.S. labor market continues to slow down, the Fed will have to pay attention not only to high inflation but also to the low number of jobs being created.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are no significant fundamental events to note on Monday. No important speeches or events are scheduled for today. However, there is still plenty for traders to ponder. Last week, inflation reports were released in the Eurozone, which maintained a fairly high likelihood of a second increase in the European Central Bank's key rate. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter, and the Fed did not express a strong desire to raise the key rate anytime soon. Thus, the U.S. dollar, which the market has been buying up for the past few months for various reasons, is losing market support once again.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to leave much to be desired. Another ceasefire has been violated, the conflict has resumed, and the U.S. and Iran have carried out massive strikes for two weeks, with no negotiations taking place at this time. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the Yemeni Houthis have declared a blockade on Saudi Arabia, and Tehran threatens to completely shut down the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington continues to exert pressure. The situation is only heating up, which is driving oil prices higher and, in turn, accelerating inflation.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may correct, and volatility may not be very high today. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, and the British pound from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. On Monday, novice traders can focus on technical factors and pay attention to the U.S. ISM index.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The GBP/USD currency pair exhibited quite strong growth on Friday. The entire past week was very successful for both the European and British currencies, which has scientific explanations. All key events and reports in the U.S. have failed. The market did not receive clear signals from the Federal Reserve indicating a readiness to begin tightening monetary policy. At the same time, the Bank of England has come much closer to raising the key interest rate than traders had anticipated. The conflict in the Middle East led to new oil price increases to $100. Inflation in the Eurozone has once again begun to accelerate.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has begun to show signs of slowing, which may limit the Fed's options for tightening monetary policy. In simple terms, last week showed that the market's overly optimistic sentiment toward the dollar does not reflect reality. It is also important not to forget the global technical picture. The British pound is within a sideways channel on the weekly timeframe and continues to move between its lower and upper boundaries. Thus, even without local fundamental and macroeconomic support, the British currency can still move another 200-300 pips higher.

From a technical perspective, the British pound has broken through the downward trend line and begun forming an upward trend. It is worth noting that, in the long term, the pound remains flat, as is evident on the weekly timeframe. After reaching the lower boundary of the sideways channel, a logical move towards the upper boundary began, though it is not yet complete.

On the 5-minute timeframe, several interesting signals were formed on Friday. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3465-1.3480 area and later exceeded the Senkou Span B line. The price could not continue to fall during the American session, so it consolidated back above the Senkou Span B line, allowing long positions to be opened. By the end of the day, the pair reached and exceeded the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Thus, two trades could have been opened, both of which proved to be profitable.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with sales for several months now. The net position is negative despite the ongoing upward trend in the long term. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict continues. Geopolitics could support demand for the U.S. dollar in the near future. However, until there is a consolidation below the trend line, we would not expect a strong decline in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as clearly seen on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed both directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently reached this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated July 28), the "Non-commercial" group closed 2,800 BUY contracts and opened 6,400 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 9,200 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has begun forming an upward trend, thanks to the Bank of England and the Fed. In the long term, both European currencies still look set to move higher and have been trading within sideways channels for a year now. This does not negate the upward trend that started back in 2022. We expect the British pound to continue to strengthen in the coming weeks, regardless of geopolitical and economic developments.

For August 3, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3420) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3388) can also serve as signal sources. It is advisable to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven once the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Monday, only the second estimate of the UK manufacturing PMI index will be released, which is unlikely to interest traders. In the U.S., the ISM manufacturing index, which is expected to attract market interest, will be released today.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3420 and 1.3388 if the price consolidates below the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Long positions can be opened on a bounce from the 1.3465-1.3480 area, targeting 1.3588.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines around which movement might end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts indicates the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair initially traded lower on Friday, then resumed explosive growth. Recall that last week the market finally began to pay attention to positive factors for the euro, leading to a significant strengthening of the European currency. Disappointment with the Federal Reserve, strong GDP data in Europe, weak GDP data in the U.S., and accelerating inflation in Germany and the Eurozone in July all contributed to a sharp decline in the dollar across markets. The question remains: what to expect next. In our view, the growth of the European currency should continue in the medium term. We see no valid reasons for the dollar's strengthening, just as there were none a few months ago. The American currency in 2026 has squeezed the maximum from the current news backdrop, but even that has not led to significant long-term growth in the dollar (on daily and weekly timeframes). Essentially, the pair remains flat on the weekly chart, which means that the dollar still cannot count on strong growth. Over the weekend, it became known that Donald Trump had decided against carrying out new strikes on Iran, which does not affect the overall situation in the Middle East. The conflict persists, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is heavily restricted, and negotiations are not taking place.

From a technical perspective, the pair has exited the sideways channel of 1.1362-1.1461 after a month of struggling. Traders can now expect not just an upward trend, but a full-fledged trend. Recall that over the past year, the EUR/USD pair has predominantly traded sideways, and there are still no strong foundations for a long-term dollar trend.

On the 5-minute timeframe, one very good trading signal was formed on Friday. During the American trading session, the price dropped to the 1.1461-1.1473 area and bounced back. Thus, traders had an excellent opportunity to go long. Before the end of the day, the pair managed to reach the nearest target area of 1.1536-1.1542.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated July 28. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has become "bearish" and has significantly decreased in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policy has remained unchanged, but for a time the dollar was acting as a "reserve currency."

We still do not see any fundamental factors for strengthening the European currency, while there are plenty of factors for the decline of the American one. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but once this factor has "expired," everything will return to normal. In the long term, the euro could drop to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. However, over the past few months of dollar growth, the pair has not drawn significantly closer to this line.

The position of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "non-commercial" group decreased by 15,500, while the number of shorts increased by 15,600. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 31,100 contracts for the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the pair began a new upward trend after a month-long pause. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving, but that is not enough for a new, powerful surge in the dollar. The market has ignored all the positive backdrop for the euro in recent months and has focused solely on the Fed's monetary policy. If the situation has now changed, the European currency has the opportunity to process all past news/events/reports that the market has disregarded.

For August 3, we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362-1.1368, 1.1461-1.1473, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1424) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1457). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order in breakeven if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Monday, a retail sales report will be released in Germany, the second estimate of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI will be published, and a significant ISM manufacturing index will be released in the U.S. Thus, all attention is on the ISM index.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions with targets of 1.1461-1.1473 if the price consolidates below the 1.1536-1.1542 area. Consolidation above the area of 1.1536-1.1542 will allow for new long positions with targets of 1.1585 and 1.1657-1.1666.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines around which movement might end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts indicates the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The GBP/USD currency pair also showed strong growth over the past week, gaining 220 pips in just four days. Thus, we believe that the upward movement that began on June 25 remains in effect and will continue to develop. Recall that the British pound has been trading in a sideways channel between 1.3150 and 1.3780 for a year now. In June, the price approached the lower boundary of this channel, so it was reasonable to expect a movement towards the upper boundary. Moreover, in the longer term, the British pound remains within an upward trend that began back in 2022. So what do we have in the end? The British pound has been in an upward trend for four years, while the most the U.S. dollar has been able to achieve in a very favorable 2026 is a minor (on the weekly timeframe) correction within the sideways channel. Thus, in the long term, we expect the same growth in the British currency as in the euro.

The geopolitical factor continues to resemble a "rollercoaster" mixed with outright farce. We understand that it concerns a military conflict in which lives are lost, infrastructure is destroyed, and the world is experiencing an energy and fuel crisis. However, the way events are unfolding in the Middle East truly resembles a comedic version of the "Santa Barbara" series. And the main character of this series is Donald Trump. It was Trump who ordered the "pilot episode" to launch at the end of February, and now he has begun production on the third or fourth season.

Events in the Middle East develop cyclically, in a closed loop. First, Trump announces the proximity of an agreement; then he threatens new strikes on Iran; next, he carries out new strikes on Iran, receives retaliatory attacks on American military bases and allies in the Middle East, again talks about a ceasefire and the closeness of a deal with Tehran, re-threatens Iran with destruction, and so on. Nothing new is happening in the Middle East. We even get the impression that Iran will sooner or later start ignoring Trump and the American army, which is nearby and from time to time tries through its actions to achieve something, to prove something, to obtain something.

Iran has consistently provided clear responses to all ultimatums from the White House leader. There will be no concessions regarding the Strait of Hormuz or the nuclear agreement. Iran will not abandon its enriched uranium stocks, will not give up on nuclear energy, will not stop producing ballistic missiles, and will not relinquish its right to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It is ready to fight to protect its interests for as long as necessary. And it should be acknowledged that Iran's strategy is logical, while Trump's strategy is not understood even by Republican congressmen, let alone American citizens.

Iran has maintained a consistent political course despite sanctions and a perpetual war for about 50 years. We are confident that this political course will outlive Trump and will certainly "wait" for his resignation. Therefore, Iran can continue to defend itself with confidence and wait for the Republican Party to suffer defeat in the congressional elections, for Trump's presidential term to expire, and for Trump himself to realize that he will not be able to force Iran to accept his ultimatums through forceful methods. We even believe that soon Trump will attempt a new "distraction." Earlier in the year, "the smell of trouble" surrounding the "Epstein case" prompted him to start a war in the Middle East. Now, having suffered a humiliating defeat in the Middle East, he may try to divert public attention by invading Venezuela or Greenland. In any case, something will happen soon. And considering the events of the last year and a half, it is unlikely that this "something" will be positive.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 93 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Monday, August 3, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3386 and 1.3572. The upper linear regression channel is directed downwards, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone twice, which may provoke a new downward correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3428

S2 – 1.3367

S3 – 1.3306

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3489

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. The year 2026 is currently turning out super positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every fairytale comes to an end. The weekly timeframe shows a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, which supports expectations of continued growth in the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets of 1.3550 and 1.3572 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. When the price is below the moving average, bearish trading can be pursued with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help define the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, it means that the trend is strong at present;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate for the next day based on current volatility parameters;

The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair rose by 170 pips over the past week, something that hasn't happened for quite a while. However, we believe that the growth of the euro was entirely legitimate. Moreover, it should have occurred a month and a half ago, and the dollar still has no prospects. For the past few months, we have repeatedly said the same thing: if it weren't for the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. dollar would already be trading above $1.20 against the euro. The current year began with renewed growth in the European currency, and the EUR/USD pair surpassed the 1.20 mark. This movement was expected to continue, as the long-term trend remains upward (clearly visible on the weekly timeframe).

But then Donald Trump intervened by launching a war against Iran, which "backfired" on everyone, including himself. Trump achieved absolutely nothing with the war in the Middle East. Energy prices soared, inflation began to accelerate globally, and the Federal Reserve, preparing to resume its monetary easing cycle, was now forced to consider raising the key rate. Trump's political ratings fell even lower ahead of the congressional elections. So even personally, Trump did not benefit from the war with Iran. The only thing he accomplished was to distract public attention from the "Epstein case," in which he was one of the main figures. In general, judge for yourself what Trump achieved with his aggression in the Middle East.

Initially, the dollar was used by the market as a "safe haven," but then it became clear that there could be no talk of near-term Fed monetary easing. As the market primarily focused on the Fed's monetary policy, the dollar rose further because the American central bank was forced to consider tightening policy. Thus, instead of the inevitable decline of the American currency, we observed its growth for almost the entire first half of 2026. This growth is absolutely unnecessary for Trump himself.

However, as of July, the dollar has exhausted all growth factors, even local and random ones. Back in June, the market had already priced in future tightening of the Fed's monetary policy when Kevin Warsh stated that inflation in the U.S. needed to be fought against. The market somehow concluded that "fighting inflation" meant an inevitable rise in the key rate, even though U.S. inflation had exceeded the target level for five years, and, under Jerome Powell, for example, it was not possible to bring it down. Last year, the Fed even had to lower the key rate (again, thanks to Donald Trump's policies) because the labor market created only 200,000 jobs over the entire year. At the same time, the June tightening of the European Central Bank's monetary policy was ignored by the market; the fact that Trump appointed Warsh to cut the key rate was forgotten; and the fact that inflation can fluctuate due to constant changes in the geopolitical backdrop was completely overlooked. For example, as of today, Trump has once again pardoned Iran and abandoned a new series of strikes.

Thus, the dollar was rising in 2026 even before factors had yet to materialize, and the geopolitical factor cannot provoke the eternal growth of the American currency. It has its expiration date. Therefore, as before, we believe that the U.S. dollar will resume its long-term decline with targets above $1.20 against the euro. Even if there is no local support for the euro in the coming weeks, it can still quickly return to $1.20 and surpass that level. This is simply due to the cumulative effect of unprocessed and ignored market factors.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past 5 trading days, as of August 3, is 81 pips and is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1447 and 1.1609 on Monday. The upper linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating the persistence of a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area, which now warns of a possible downward correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1505

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1444

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1536

R2 – 1.1566

R3 – 1.1597

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, which may be the beginning of a new round of the global upward trend on higher timeframes. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics, followed by the Fed's "hawkish" stance, provided strong support for the American currency. However, every fairytale comes to an end sooner or later. When the price is below the moving average, short positions with targets of 1.1414 and 1.1383 can be considered. Above the moving average, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1609.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help define the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, it means that the trend is strong at present;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate for the next day based on current volatility parameters;

The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Of course, geopolitical developments will remain in focus, especially in light of recent decisions by the US President. Donald Trump, for instance, recently canceled a large-scale strike against Iran. He stated that the United States was prepared to use military force against Tehran "not seen since World War II," but decided against the attack after communications from Iranian authorities and other Middle Eastern countries. According to the President, negotiators were able to coordinate the main parameters of a future deal, which is supposed to entail the immediate and complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the cessation of Iran's nuclear program.

Iranian authorities have not confirmed the agreements mentioned by Trump, thereby keeping the intrigue alive. Additionally, according to Axios, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia indeed appealed to the US President to refrain from further strikes against Iran. Concurrently, mediators from Qatar held talks with Iran's Foreign Minister and representatives from Oman to unlock the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that the US President backed off from further escalation suggests that the parties have indeed reached some compromise.

If Washington and Tehran return to the negotiating table, the dollar will come under additional pressure. As geopolitical tensions ease, market participants are expected to shift more towards riskier assets (including the euro), while demand for the greenback will continue to weaken.

Moreover, the fundamental backdrop for the dollar worsened at the end of last week when data on US economic growth and the core PCE index were released.

To briefly recap, preliminary estimates indicate that US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter (down from 2.1% in the first quarter). This result fell short of market expectations, heightening concerns about a loss of economic momentum. At the same time, the core PCE index rose by only 0.1% month-on-month (with a forecast of 0.2% growth). The annual figure slowed to 3.3% (from a previous peak of 3.4%).

Weaker-than-expected data on economic growth and inflation noticeably weakened the US currency. The US dollar index hit a six-week low, plunging to 99.57, while the EUR/USD pair, correspondingly, marked a six-week high at 1.1547.

Key releases for the upcoming week could either intensify pressure on the greenback or help it regain lost ground.

The first serious test for the dollar will be the ISM manufacturing index, which will be published on Monday, August 3. It is worth noting that the U.S. manufacturing sector has shown unexpected resilience over the past six months, remaining in the expansion zone, i.e., above the 50-point mark. According to preliminary forecasts, this indicator is also expected to demonstrate an upward trend in July, rising to 54.0 (after a slight decline to 53.3 in June). If, contrary to expectations, the manufacturing index approaches the "red line" of the 50-point watershed (and especially if it enters the contraction zone), the market will perceive this as yet another confirmation of a slowdown in economic growth. In this case, the dollar will be under significant pressure, as traders begin to price in a faster shift by the Fed towards easing policy.

No less important for the greenback will be the ISM Services report (expected on Wednesday), which is forecast to rise to 54.5 in July, after a slight decline to 54.0 in June. As is well known, the services sector remains the foundation of the American economy, accounting for a large share of GDP and employment. Therefore, the ISM Services index may prove even more important than the manufacturing index. If it falls into the "red zone" (even while remaining above the 50-point mark), the dollar will encounter a new wave of selling.

In addition to the ISM indexes, key labor market reports from the U.S. will set the tone for trading in the EUR/USD pair: JOLTS, ADP, NFP. The JOLTS report is considered one of the key preliminary indicators ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report, as it provides insight into whether companies are maintaining high demand for employees or beginning to cut hiring. Most analysts expect job openings to decrease in June to 7.420 million (down from 7.59 million previously). This is a key indicator. However, for the dollar, the most negative scenario would be a combination of falling job openings, weakening hiring, and rising layoffs, as such a signal would indicate a gradual cooling of the U.S. labor market.

The market also views the ADP report as a preliminary indicator ahead of the NFP, although its correlation with official data has weakened significantly recently. In light of the sharp slowdown in June's Nonfarms (only +57,000 new jobs), the July ADP report will help to understand whether the private sector continues to cool or if the previous weak result was a temporary deviation. According to forecasts, private-sector employment is expected to rise by only 70,000 in July. A weak ADP (especially if the figure is below the 50,000 mark) will heighten concerns that issues in the U.S. labor market are becoming more fundamental. Such a "preview" ahead of the NFP could exert significant pressure on the dollar. Conversely, a strong result (above 120,000-150,000) is capable of changing market sentiment, especially if accompanied by an increase in the employment component of ISM Services.

Finally, the main macroeconomic event of the week for EUR/USD will be the publication of the official U.S. labor market report for July. The release is traditionally scheduled for Friday (August 7). It will serve as a key benchmark for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy and the future trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy. After a weak result in June, the market will seek an answer to the main question: was this weakness "situational," i.e., temporary, or has the labor market genuinely started to lose its resilience? Most analysts believe that the number of jobs in the non-farm sector will grow by only 88,000 in July – not much more than the previous month (+57,000). Such a result would indicate a continued trend towards cooling in the labor market.

The unemployment rate in the U.S. is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. However, in this case, the market will evaluate not only the figure itself but also its quality. If the labor force participation rate begins to decline again (in June, this indicator fell to 61.5%), then the "pretty" unemployment statistic will merely reflect some Americans leaving the labor force, rather than sustained hiring. A slowdown in wage growth is also expected – to 3.3% y/y, after a rise to 3.5% in the previous month.

As we can see, even the forecast result can exert pressure on the greenback. But if the release falls into the red zone (in particular, if job growth is below 75,000, the labor force participation rate sets another minimum, and the wage index is below 3.3%), the dollar will be under extremely strong pressure across the market.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe is situated between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as above all lines of Ichimoku, which has formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. Such signals indicate a bullish bias, although local overbought conditions may prompt a minor correction. Bearish corrective pullbacks are best seen as opportunities to open long positions, with the first and currently only target of 1.1590 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1). Overcoming this resistance will open the path for buyers into the 16th figure area.

Gold is trading around $4,044, below the 2/8 Murray line and the 21-period simple moving average (SMA), showing a downtrend and trading within a bearish channel that has been forming since July 20.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold, after hitting a low of $4,020, is rebounding and could continue to rise in the coming days. The Eagle indicator shows a negative signal, so if the price consolidates below the 2/8 Murray level, around $4,062, it could resume its downtrend.

Conversely, if gold trades above $4,062, the outlook could be positive, and the price could reach the upper band of the bullish channel, around $4,086.

Since gold is currently within a bearish channel, it is likely to encounter strong resistance around $4,115 or solid support around $3,980 in the coming days.

We should monitor the 2/8 Murray zone to take long or short positions, as this is a key level for gold.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,788, after rebounding upon finding solid support around the 0/8 Murray level, which also coincided with the lower band of the trend channel formed since July 20.

If Bitcoin rebounds above $62,500 and consolidates above this level, it will be interpreted as a signal to continue buying in the coming days, with targets at the 200-day EMA, around $63,980. Ultimately, we expect it to encounter strong resistance around the upper band of the downtrend channel, at $64,600.

If Bitcoin falls below $62,500, the outlook could turn negative, and BTC could accelerate its decline toward the psychological level of $60,000.

The Eagle indicator has reached five points, representing a strongly oversold condition. This could indicate that, in the coming days, Bitcoin could resume its uptrend, rebound, and reach the 1/8 Murray level, around $65,625, or even reach the July 20 high, around $67,900.

ETH is trading around $1,865, after rebounding from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around $1,846. The ETH/USD pair is under downward pressure, and if it breaks below the 200-day EMA and consolidates below this level, it could continue to fall in the coming days until it reaches the lower band of the uptrend channel, around $1,795.

On the other hand, if the ETH price rebounds above $1,846, it could reach the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) around $1,900, and ultimately, we expect it to reach the Murray 4/8 level near the psychological threshold of $2,000.

Since the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) represents strong support for Ethereum, this could be interpreted as a positive buy signal for the coming days, with the expectation that it will reach $1,900 and $1,946.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, although it may be approaching oversold levels; therefore, we will look to buy in the coming days before the cryptocurrency's price resumes its downtrend.

The EUR/USD pair remains within the local bearish impulse that has been in place since April 17. Today, the pair reacted to Imbalance 17, as I had been anticipating for quite some time, and resumed its decline. As a result, we saw a strong rally in the euro on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a sharp sell-off on Friday, driven by both the news flow and a technical signal.

As a reminder, on Wednesday evening Kevin Warsh once again highlighted the problem of elevated inflation in the United States but was not sufficiently convincing when explaining the Federal Reserve's next steps. Traders had expected Warsh to deliver either a clear indication of a September rate hike or, at the very least, more hawkish rhetoric that would answer the key question: Is the Federal Reserve prepared to tighten monetary policy this autumn? Instead, Warsh referred to incoming economic data, and, as we all know, the latest U.S. labor market figures were relatively weak. Consequently, Warsh may argue in September that labor market conditions do not justify a rate hike. As a result, the bulls received unexpected support, completed another liquidity sweep, and launched a fresh advance. On Thursday, they were further supported by strong Eurozone economic data and weak U.S. figures. On Friday, however, the single inflation report from the Eurozone triggered a sharp decline in the euro, as the July reading merely met market expectations.

It should be remembered that expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening are merely market expectations and can change as geopolitical conditions evolve. The latest U.S. labor market data was relatively weak, while the inflation report pointed to slower price growth. Consequently, the slowdown in both the labor market and inflation raises doubts about whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Personally, I am not convinced that the Federal Reserve will necessarily begin tightening monetary policy this year, nor that any potential rate increase would be anything more than a one-off move designed to avoid provoking Donald Trump excessively.

Geopolitical developments remain a secondary factor but continue to influence the economy. Tehran and Washington have withdrawn from the June 17 agreement, Donald Trump has reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil and restored the blockade of Iranian shipping, while Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz and is attacking vessels attempting to pass through it outside what it considers the established rules. A month ago, we did not see the U.S. dollar weaken as geopolitical tensions eased, nor did we see the euro strengthen following the ECB's monetary tightening one and a half months ago. The bears remain in control despite the broader fundamental and geopolitical backdrop. In my opinion, deteriorating relations between Iran and the United States alone are no longer sufficient to trigger another sustained bearish move.

The current technical picture continues to indicate that the bearish impulse that began on April 17 remains intact. Bearish Imbalance 17 was fully tested yesterday and today, generating a sell signal. The question now is how deep the euro's decline will become. Yesterday, a new Bullish Imbalance 19 formed, giving the bulls renewed reason for optimism. Therefore, the decline may continue until this pattern is reached, where a new buy signal could emerge and allow the bullish advance to resume.

Friday's economic releases were significant and were the primary driver behind the euro's decline. Germany's inflation report had led market participants to expect a stronger-than-forecast inflation reading for the Eurozone as a whole. In reality, however, Eurozone inflation increased by only 0.1 percentage points, matching market expectations. As a result, the European Central Bank may decide to extend its pause in monetary policy tightening at its September meeting.

The bulls still have plenty of reasons to remain optimistic in 2026, and even the conflict in the Middle East has not significantly altered that broader outlook. Structurally and fundamentally, Donald Trump's policies—which contributed to the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar last year—have not changed. At present, I do not see any major long-term support factors for the U.S. dollar despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Nevertheless, it is still the bears who remain on the offensive, while no bullish technical signals have yet emerged.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

Germany

• Retail Sales (06:00 UTC)

United States

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for August 3 contains two scheduled releases, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI standing out as the most important. As a result, the economic backdrop is likely to influence market sentiment mainly during the second half of Monday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my opinion, the pair remains in the process of forming a broader bullish trend. Although the fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears five months ago, the longer-term trend cannot yet be considered cancelled or complete. Therefore, the bulls may launch another advance after the two recent liquidity sweeps below key swing lows.

At present, Bearish Imbalance 17 continues to provide a valid sell signal. Therefore, the euro may continue declining next week with Bullish Imbalance 19 serving as the downward target. Once the price reaches Imbalance 19, a new buy signal may emerge, allowing traders to consider long positions with targets above 1.1620.

The GBP/USD pair has posted a fairly noticeable decline over the past two weeks, followed by a strong rally over the last two trading sessions. This suggests that the bulls have launched a new offensive, which was then followed by a normal corrective pullback.

Yesterday, Bearish Imbalance 24 was broken without triggering any price reaction. As a result, it can now be regarded as an inverted imbalance. A reaction to this pattern may now occur from above, implying a bullish response. I would like to remind traders that positions should be opened only after the market reacts to a pattern or an area of interest and that this reaction is confirmed on lower timeframes—not simply when the price reaches the pattern itself. Therefore, just as no reaction may occur at a regular imbalance, no reaction may occur at an inverted imbalance either. However, at the moment, such a reaction remains possible. In addition, another Bullish Imbalance 25 has formed below the current price. This gives the bulls two areas of interest where buying opportunities may emerge.

As for the trend, in my view, it remains bullish, while no bearish patterns are currently present. The euro came under pressure today following weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation data and may have dragged the British pound lower as well. Moreover, after two consecutive days of strong gains, a corrective pullback appears entirely natural.

Last week, oil prices climbed to $100 per barrel, and the consequences of a new escalation in the Middle East, combined with a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, could push prices as high as $120 per barrel. If events continue to unfold according to the most pessimistic scenario—which currently appears increasingly likely—oil prices may continue rising and surpass the highs recorded between March and May. In that case, inflation in both the United States and the United Kingdom could begin accelerating again. If, however, the situation develops according to the more optimistic scenario, oil prices could return to the $60–70 per barrel range. Under those circumstances, the Federal Reserve might not need to tighten monetary policy further, while the Bank of England is already no longer facing the problem of persistently high inflation. As a result, the U.S. dollar currently cannot rely on a hawkish Federal Reserve for sustained support, while the British pound could receive support from the Bank of England only if inflation begins accelerating again.

Chart analysis continues to point to renewed bullish pressure. At present, traders have two bullish imbalances (24 and 25) where long positions may be considered. There are currently no bearish patterns. Therefore, a new buy signal could emerge as early as today or on Monday, allowing the bulls to extend their advance next week, as a new bullish trend may have begun on June 25.

The economic calendar was empty in both the United Kingdom and the United States on Friday. Nevertheless, GBP/USD still entered a corrective pullback, which was entirely justified from a technical perspective.

The broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, over the long term, I continue to expect nothing other than further weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States has not changed that outlook. Nor has the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded the market of the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates in 2026, which is supportive for the dollar. However, it should not be overlooked that tighter monetary policy would slow both economic growth and the labor market. In addition, Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump to lead the FOMC with the goal of shifting monetary policy toward easing—something that, in Trump's view, Jerome Powell was unwilling to deliver. Therefore, in my opinion, any appreciation of the U.S. dollar is likely to be temporary and driven by short-term factors.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

United States:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for August 3 contains only one event that can be considered significant. As a result, the economic backdrop is expected to influence market sentiment primarily during the second half of Monday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

The long-term outlook for the British pound remains bullish. After liquidity was swept below the two most recent swing lows, the bulls launched an advance, followed by a corrective pullback, another bullish push, and then another correction. Next week, I will be looking for a new buy signal within one of the two bullish imbalance zones. Areas of interest for purchases: 1.3310 – 1.3333 and 1.3393 – 1.3414.

If the bears begin a new offensive, bearish chart patterns will be required to justify short positions. At the moment, no such patterns are present.

While the cryptocurrency market is trying to determine whether it is ready to continue moving higher, IBM has announced what it calls a demonstration of "trusted quantum advantage." The company stated that its quantum computer completed a computation that is beyond the reach of the best classical simulation methods while simultaneously providing statistical evidence confirming the accuracy of the result.

The work, conducted in collaboration with researchers from the University of Chicago, marks another milestone in IBM's efforts to build fault-tolerant quantum computers. IBM Research Director Jay Gambetta described the achievement as the beginning of a new phase in the development of quantum technology:

"We are now firmly in the era of quantum advantage. This milestone provides scientists, developers, and businesses with a new foundation for trusting quantum computers as they scale to problems that go far beyond what can be achieved using classical methods."

According to the interview, the experiment executed 2,415 logical two-qubit operations and 468 logical T-gates, reducing the logical error rate to approximately one-tenth of the underlying physical error rate. The experiment also addressed the long-standing verification challenge that has characterized previous demonstrations of quantum advantage.

Despite its impressive technical significance, the experiment does not alter Bitcoin's short-term security outlook. However, it adds another building block to the growing body of research aimed at overcoming one of the principal challenges of quantum computing—reliable error correction as systems scale to larger sizes. As a result, it brings closer the point at which such systems could theoretically pose a threat to the cryptography underlying Bitcoin and other blockchain networks.

What is particularly noteworthy is that, alongside advances in the quantum computing industry, the defensive side of the cryptocurrency industry is also evolving. IBM's progress fits well into the broader context established by the launch of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, which brings together BlackRock, Coinbase, Strategy, Fidelity Digital Assets, and other major institutional Bitcoin holders. The consortium has explicitly identified preparation for a potential era of quantum computing as one of its key long-term funding priorities, emphasizing that large-scale quantum computers capable of compromising Bitcoin's cryptography do not yet exist and, according to leading expert assessments, remain years away. IBM's demonstration does not dramatically accelerate that timeline, but it confirms that both the quantum computing community and the cryptocurrency security community take the potential threat seriously and are working on solutions well in advance.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and trading conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry point around $64,000, targeting a rise to $64,400. Around $64,400, I will close my long positions and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of $63,700 if there is no bearish reaction after a breakout below this level, targeting a recovery toward $64,000 and $64,400.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry point around $63,700, targeting a decline to $63,000. Around $63,000, I will close my short positions and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $64,000 if there is no bullish reaction after a breakout above this level, targeting a move toward $63,700 and $63,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry point around $1,887, targeting a rise to $1,900. Around $1,900, I will close my long positions and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $1,876 if there is no bearish reaction after a breakout below this level, targeting a recovery toward $1,887 and $1,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry point around $1,876, targeting a decline to $1,854. Around $1,854, I will close my short positions and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of $1,887 if there is no bullish reaction after a breakout above this level, targeting a move toward $1,876 and $1,854.

The test of the 1.1517 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. A second test of 1.1517 allowed Sell Scenario #2 to play out, resulting in a decline toward 1.1499.

The euro is approaching month-end with its focus on upcoming U.S. economic data, namely the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Consumer sentiment serves as a barometer of households' willingness to spend, while inflation expectations shape the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. If both indicators come in stronger than expected, risk appetite could deteriorate and demand for the U.S. dollar could return, putting additional pressure on the single currency. Profit-taking is another factor weighing on the euro. After the strong rally seen over recent sessions, the EUR/USD pair has built up conditions for a pullback, as market participants often partially close profitable positions at the end of the month. Combined with a potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar, this could interrupt the euro's bullish momentum. Therefore, further price action will depend both on the incoming data and on the market's willingness to maintain its recent gains.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches 1.1506 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1531. At 1.1531, I plan to exit long positions and also open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. The euro is likely to strengthen today if the U.S. data comes in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1485 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1506 and 1.1531 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1485 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1463, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the U.S. data comes in stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1506 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1485 and 1.1463 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports in order to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with excessively large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3452 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair failed to generate a significant upward move.

The direction of the pound during the U.S. session will be determined by upcoming U.S. economic data, namely the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations, as the British currency currently lacks significant domestic catalysts. The Consumer Sentiment Index reflects consumers' confidence in the economy, while inflation expectations indicate how households view future price growth. Both indicators have the potential to significantly influence market sentiment. Strong readings could restore demand for the U.S. dollar and trigger its strengthening at month-end. Under such conditions, the pound will become increasingly dependent on external factors. In addition to the risk of a stronger U.S. dollar, profit-taking may also weigh on the currency, as GBP/USD appears vulnerable to a pullback following its strong rally in recent sessions. Traders often reduce long positions at the end of the month, and such a correction could put additional pressure on the British pound. As a result, its near-term direction will largely depend on the performance of the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry point around 1.3447 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3484 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3484, I plan to close my long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level. A stronger pound today can only be expected if the U.S. data comes in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3424 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3447 and 1.3484 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3424 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3395, where I plan to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pound is likely to return if the U.S. economic data comes in stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3447 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3424 and 1.3395 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with excessively large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.