Today, Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) continues to decline, once again falling below the $4,450 level and approaching the critically important 200-day SMA, while reaching a new weekly low during recent trading hours. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher for a third consecutive day, increasing inflation risks and reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period.

This is weighing on gold, which does not generate interest income. In addition, geopolitical instability continues to support the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, contributing to capital outflows from the precious metal.

According to the latest reports regarding the Middle East crisis, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, describing the operation as an act of "self-defense." In response, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, although a significant portion of the attacks was intercepted by U.S. and allied air defense systems in the region. At the same time, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified.

Another source of tension is the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran amid disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. This increases the likelihood of further escalation and keeps geopolitical risks elevated. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the removal of sanctions on Iran is not being considered in exchange for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that any sanctions relief would only be possible if Tehran abandons its enriched uranium program.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire regime and the continuation of the blockade until the negotiation process is concluded "one way or another." These developments have contributed to the recovery in oil prices following the monthly low recorded last Friday, strengthening inflation expectations and reinforcing forecasts of tighter monetary policy from major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Additional support for these expectations came from comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack, who stated that the central bank remains committed to returning inflation to the 2% target and may be forced to take further action if price growth fails to slow in the near term. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are assigning a probability of more than 50% to a 25-basis-point rate hike in December.

Elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to support the dollar, placing additional pressure on gold prices.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias. Failure to hold above the 200-day SMA could accelerate the decline toward deeper support levels. If bulls manage to break above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, they will gain an opportunity for further growth. However, as long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears retain the advantage.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish. Bulls will only be able to continue their advance if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement, stop violating the ceasefire terms, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened in the near future. Without these developments, it will be extremely difficult for them to launch a sustained offensive.

Several notable reports were released in both the European Union and the United States on Tuesday. Unfortunately, they once again failed to attract traders' attention, although they allow for several important conclusions. An acceleration in inflation in the Eurozone to 3.2% year-on-year and in core inflation to 2.5% year-on-year gives traders reason to expect tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank. It hardly needs to be said that higher interest rates are generally a bullish factor for a currency, especially if other central banks are not expected to tighten policy. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are highly unlikely to adopt hawkish decisions in June. Therefore, the euro could have been expected to rise yesterday and today, but instead it remains under pressure. Could the JOLTS report have prevented the bulls from launching an attack? The report showed a reading significantly above market expectations, but in my view, the JOLTS data had little to do with the pair's decline. The same can be said about geopolitics, which has been changing direction several times a day in recent weeks. In my opinion, bulls and bears are engaged in a tug-of-war within a limited price range, paying little attention to incoming news and economic data. Trading activity remains extremely low.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade within a horizontal range between the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1667. The market is in no hurry to open new positions or draw firm conclusions. At the moment, I recommend focusing primarily on the hourly chart, as price movements have remained relatively weak in recent weeks. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 10,196 Long positions and 6,109 Short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while over the past nine weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the suspension of military activity in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, compared with 193,000 Short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, large market participants continue to view the euro favorably over the long term. Naturally, various global developments—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has merely been paused rather than concluded. Consequently, in the near term, the euro and the U.S. dollar will be driven not by Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor by economic data, but by developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Services PMI (07:55 UTC).
• Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 3 contains four events, with the U.S. releases being the most noteworthy. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1682 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1578. The first target has already been reached. New short positions may be considered following another rebound from the 1.1682 level. Long positions may be opened following a rebound from the 1.1578 level, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1682.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical developments to launch a sustained advance. The most recent completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Geopolitical developments have recently provided support to bulls; however, the prospects for reaching an agreement between Iran and the United States are once again fading rapidly. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after a breakout above the May 25 high.

The news backdrop shifted every few hours on Tuesday. Economic releases favored the bears, as the U.S. JOLTS job openings figure for April came in above market expectations. However, this report was released relatively late in the day, and traders showed little activity beforehand. Meanwhile, Donald Trump managed to prevent a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Following talks with Israel, he reportedly persuaded the country not to carry out strikes against Lebanon or deploy troops there, actions that would have prompted Iran to suspend negotiations with the United States. This morning, the U.S. President stated that negotiations are continuing and that an agreement could be reached in the near future, though he could provide no guarantees. According to Trump, Iran is a large country, and negotiations with it remain extremely difficult. I do not attribute the morning strengthening of the U.S. dollar to geopolitical developments, as market sentiment has been changing as frequently as geopolitical headlines in recent days. The current decline may end just as quickly as it began.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has returned to the 1.3482–1.3514 resistance level. Another rebound from this zone would once again favor the U.S. dollar and support a moderate decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements are likely to remain driven primarily by geopolitical developments rather than technical analysis in the near term. Technical analysis should be viewed only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became slightly less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,097, while the number of Short positions declined by 13,006. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 58,000 versus 119,000 contracts. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict. However, recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be easy or quick.

Economic Calendar for the United Kingdom and the United States:

• United Kingdom – Services PMI (08:30 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 3 contains three events, two of which can be considered significant. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Long positions may be considered following a rebound from the 1.3408 level, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. Traders may also consider buying the pair if it closes above the 1.3454–1.3466 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

The company on Wednesday said it will offer issuers and acquirers additional settlement options, including intraday settlements, weekend and holiday processing, and blockchain-based settlements using regulated stablecoins. The new capabilities will operate alongside existing fiat processes and are intended to give financial institutions greater flexibility in managing liquidity.

Initially, Mastercard will support settlements in USDC from Circle; PYUSD, USDG, and USDP from Paxos; and RLUSD from Ripple and SoFiUSD — on the Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Base, Arbitrum, and XRPL blockchains.

Behind the technical detail of the announcement lies a fundamental shift in the logic of global payments. Card transactions are authorized instantly, but settlements between banks and payment providers frequently occur later, in batches, and are constrained by banking hours. Mastercard's new scheme moves the network toward a model of continuous availability, where money is transferred and settled around the clock — without weekends, holidays, or time windows.

"The next phase of stablecoin adoption is about real-world utility, especially in settlement, where timing and liquidity matter most," Raj Dhamodharan, vice president for blockchain and digital assets at Mastercard, said. The company is effectively acknowledging that stablecoins have evolved beyond instruments for crypto trading and are becoming bona fide settlement assets for banks, payment firms, and asset managers.

Trading recommendations:

Buyers of BTC are targeting a return to $67,700, a level that would open a direct path to $69,500 and then to $71,400. A breach above $71,400 would indicate attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $65,800. A return of the price below that area could quickly drag Bitcoin toward $64,300. The farther target is $62,600.

As for Ethereum, a clear hold above $1,901 would open a direct route to $1,963. The farther target is the high near $2,026. A break above that level would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,827. A fall below that point could rapidly send Ethereum toward $1,783, with a deeper target at $1,724.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Dynamics of S&P 500 winning streaks

The breathtaking 36% surge in tech stocks from March highs has overshadowed weakness in energy and other names and produced a 16% rally in the S&P 500 through April–May. However, more than 12 percentage points of that divergence are attributable to just a dozen issuers. And FOMO, or Fear of Missing Out, is not confined to retail crowds; professional investors are acting the same way.

Chipmakers are leading the charge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has jumped by about 90% from this year's local lows. New S&P records were driven by Marvell Technology and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Marvell rallied after NVIDIA's CEO Steven Jen said it could be the next company to join the $1 trillion market-cap club. Hewlett Packard Enterprise surprised investors with a strong Q1 report.

Dynamics of skeptics vs optimists in the US equity market

While euphoria grips US equities, Wall Street trading advisors are split on the S&P 500's outlook. Some who previously advised buy-and-hold are turning bearish. The share of pessimists is materially higher than on the eve of the dot-com bubble burst. For some, that's a worrying signal; others see it as evidence the rally can continue — the market has yet to reach its ceiling.

S&P bulls are undeterred by geopolitics or by rising odds of Fed tightening in 2026, currently priced in at 56% following hawkish FOMC comments. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said it makes sense to keep rates on hold amid uncertainty, but if inflation accelerates further, the central bank will have to act.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has cut the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening from 60% to 22% over the past 10 days. Geopolitics continues to weigh on other asset classes, but equities are ignoring it for now. How long that will last remains the key question.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart remains unchanged: the broad index is confidently moving toward the previously announced long target of 7,700. The buy-the-dip strategy is working like clockwork. There is no case yet to abandon it — the bias remains for a continued rally.

Global equity markets are back at record highs. The MSCI All-Country World index added 0.1% to a record level, Asian bourses rose by about 0.7%, joining Wall Street at new peaks. The main engine remains semiconductors: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed by nearly 6% to a record high, and Asian chip makers followed suit, hitting fresh peaks. Europe is set to open slightly lower, however, geopolitics is reasserting itself.

The AI narrative continues to dominate with extraordinary force. Reuters reports that SpaceX plans an IPO at a $75bn valuation priced at $135 per share. This is another sign of how strong investor appetite for tech is right now. Traders are ignoring concerns about stretched valuations, betting instead on continued corporate profit growth and hopes for a geopolitical settlement.

That said, oil above $97/bbl is a reminder that the settlement is not yet a done deal. US-Iran talks have stalled again, hostilities in the Middle East have resumed, and the market is in a state of cognitive dissonance: equities at records, oil elevated, gold down near $4,465 under pressure from inflation expectations and high rates. Bitcoin slipped to around $67,000.

Yesterday's US labor market data bolstered bulls. The report showed that job openings jumped to a near-two-year high in April and layoffs declined. This signals that the labor market remains resilient despite the energy shock. Today's ADP report is expected to be fairly strong. The week's climax will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 4.46% — the first of three employment reports this week reinforced the view that the next move under Fed chair Kevin Warsh is more likely to be an interest rate hike than a cut.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen is trading near the psychologically important 160 per dollar level, a break above which typically triggers expectations of intervention by Japanese authorities. Traders are reluctant to push the pair higher, mindful that the Bank of Japan and the finance ministry are watching closely.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,607. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,639. Maintaining control above $7,659 would further cement buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,574 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,547 and open the way to $7,518.

The news backdrop yesterday was especially convoluted. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a temporary peace agreement with Iran, contradicting Iranian media reports of a suspension in negotiations due to hostilities in Lebanon. However, almost simultaneously, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain—these were intercepted or failed en route—while US forces struck new targets on Qeshm Island.

It is clear that the metal remains in a downtrend, indicating instability in sentiment—and this is not accidental. Since the beginning of the war, gold has lost about 15% and moves in inverse correlation with oil: rising energy prices amplify inflation expectations, pushing rates upward and pressuring the non—interest—bearing metal.

Considering that rates in the US are certain to rise by the end of the year—given that the recently published data on the US labor market showed a surge in job openings to a nearly two-year high—all of this strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated outright that the central bank may soon need to take action against heightened inflation. The higher the rates, the lower the value of gold.

Silver lost 0.1% to trade at $75 per ounce. Platinum remained stable, while palladium gained 0.2%.

Regarding the current technical situation for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow them to target $4,546, above which breaking through will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be around $4,607. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,432. If they succeed, a range breakdown will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,372, with the prospect of a further decline to $4,304.

There are ample reasons for the increase. Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain—these were either intercepted or destroyed en route—while US forces struck back at a command center on Qeshm Island. Kuwait has suspended flights at its international airport after an Iranian drone damaged a passenger terminal. All of this occurs against the backdrop of Trump's statements expressing optimism about a soon-to-be-finalized agreement—alongside simultaneous reports from Iranian media about the suspension of negotiations due to hostilities in Lebanon. The market is receiving conflicting signals and responding to the most tangible—escalation.

A fundamentally significant detail emerged yesterday evening. According to ABC News, Trump is demanding that Iran put its nuclear concessions in writing as part of a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities. Prior to this, Tehran had only offered verbal assurances regarding various conditions. This requirement significantly complicates the negotiation process—obtaining written commitments regarding Iran's nuclear program is politically much more challenging than securing verbal assurances, which explains why an agreement that seemed imminent just a week ago has still not been signed.

It is also noteworthy that supply shortages continue to mount. According to the American oil industry, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.8 million barrels last week. If the Department of Energy's official data confirms this figure, it will mark the sixth consecutive reduction. All of this indicates that normalization of flows is still far off, and risks are skewed toward rising prices—especially considering the approaching third quarter with its seasonally high demand for energy resources.

Regarding the current technical situation in the oil market, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow them to target $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest goal will be around $110.80. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $92.54. If they succeed, breaching this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing oil down to a low of $86.50, with the prospect of a further decline to $81.40.

Meanwhile, the US securities regulator has made a statement that would have been hard to imagine two years ago. In the SEC's strategic plan draft for the fiscal years 2026–2030, digital assets have been singled out as a distinct strategic objective for the first time.

The regulator has directly acknowledged that the growth of digital assets is outpacing the existing regulatory framework and has set the goal of creating a solid regulatory basis for digital assets and blockchain technologies through a rational, consistent, and principled approach. The document is capped by the thesis from SEC Chairman Paul Atkins: "Blockchain and crypto asset technologies have the potential to revolutionize America's financial infrastructure." Coming from the head of a regulator long associated with strict enforcement actions against crypto, this sounds like a 180-degree turnaround.

Among the specific areas of focus mentioned by the SEC are tokenized offerings and blockchain financial infrastructure as areas where the regulator aims to support capital formation within the legislative framework. Storage, trading, and staking services are also highlighted, which is very positive for the further development of the crypto industry.

As for intraday trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $67,600, targeting a rise to the level of $69,500. At $69,500, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be considered from the lower boundary at $66,600 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back up towards $67,600 and $69,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $66,700, targeting a decline to $64,900. At $64,900, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy back on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can also be considered from the upper boundary at $67,500 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $66,600 and $64,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,876, targeting a rise to the level of $1,903. At $1,903, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be considered from the lower boundary at $1,852 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $1,876 and $1,903.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,852, targeting a decline to $1,802. At $1,802, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy back on the pullback. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be considered from the upper boundary at $1,876 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $1,852 and $1,802.

The test of the price level at 159.79 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Yesterday's news that Iran has suspended negotiations with the US due to breaches of the ceasefire led to a rise in the US dollar. Markets, spooked by another escalation of regional tensions, sought refuge in traditionally safer assets, and the dollar once again led the move.

Today, financial markets eagerly await the speech from the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda. This event could be a key moment that significantly impacts the future direction of the country's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates. Analysts worldwide are closely monitoring every word to predict what steps the Bank of Japan will take in light of current economic trends.

The last few months have been marked by uncertainty about inflation indicators and economic growth in Japan. Governor Ueda, known for his cautious approach, is likely to present a balanced assessment of the situation, considering both domestic and global factors. Special attention will be given to whether he provides clear signals about the possibility of further monetary policy tightening, as the yen has been in need of strengthening, and recent interventions have not yielded noticeable results.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.98 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.35 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.35, I intend to exit my positions and sell back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.94 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.98 and 160.35.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.84 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.49 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.98 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.84 and 159.49.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.3458 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential.

The dollar strengthened its position against the pound amid a new standoff between the US and Iran. Tensions in the Middle East typically boost demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. The recent data on US job openings for April also supported the dollar, as it rose to 7.618 million. This figure is an important indicator of the health of the US labor market and comes ahead of the ADP report.

This morning, in the first half of the day, significant data for the British economy is expected. Specifically, the May figures for the UK services PMI index and the composite PMI index are on the agenda. Economists forecast that the index will remain below the 50-point mark, indicating negative sentiment. The current situation suggests a slowdown in the British economy's growth rate. A PMI index value below 50 traditionally signals a contraction in business activity within the relevant sector. In the services sector, a key driver of the British economy, this could have far-reaching consequences, affecting consumer demand, employment levels, and investment activity.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3468 (the green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.3508 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3508 level, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). One can only expect strong pound growth today following good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3452 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3468 and 1.3508.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks below 1.3452 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3412 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pound will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3468 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3452 and 1.3412.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.1654 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

Yesterday, the dollar rose again as a combination of geopolitical tensions and positive US labor market indicators created a favorable environment for the strengthening of the American currency. The increase in job openings in the US signals the strength of the American labor market and potentially increases consumer activity. This can be interpreted as a hint at the ongoing resilience of the US economy despite external shocks.

The first half of today is expected to be eventful for financial markets, with a number of key macroeconomic data releases from the Eurozone. Investors and analysts will closely watch the May PMI for the services sector. This indicator is one of the most important leading indicators reflecting the state of business activity in the largest sector of the European economy. Along with the services PMI index, the market is also anticipating data on the composite PMI for May. This indicator, which combines data from the manufacturing and services sectors, provides a more comprehensive view of overall business activity in the Eurozone. If the composite index also shows weak results, it could heighten concerns about recovery prospects and further pressure the euro.

In addition, investors will be monitoring the dynamics of the producer price index (PPI) for May. Changes in this indicator can provide insight into inflation trends at the production stage, which, in turn, may influence expectations regarding future monetary policy from the European Central Bank.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1638 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1663. At the level of 1.1663, I intend to exit the market and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). One can only expect the euro to grow after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1620 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1638 and 1.1663.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1620 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, at which point I intend to exit short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pair will only return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1638 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1620 and 1.1594.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $1,859, rebounding after hitting the lower band of the downtrend channel that formed in early May from the $2,400 level. ETH could face downward pressure and reach the psychological level of $1,750 in the coming days, which also coincides with the key -2/8 Murray support level.

Given that Ethereum has reached the lower band of the downtrend channel, if this proves to be solid support, we could expect a technical rebound, which could be seen as an opportunity to take long positions.

If Ethereum consolidates above $1,850 - $1,875, our outlook could turn positive, as above the -1/8 Murray level, Ethereum could retest the 21 SMA around $1,990 and potentially reach the psychological $2,000 level near the 0/8 Murray level.

Technically, Ethereum is reaching oversold levels. The Eagle indicator has reached 5 points, signaling an imminent technical rebound, but we must be cautious, as it is better to wait for consolidation around a solid support level before opening long positions.

When liquidity drops, most cryptocurrencies tend to make unexpected moves, so we could expect a sharp drop toward $1,750 before the price recovers or rebounds. We must therefore be very cautious, as the formation of a consolidation pattern could be interpreted as a buy signal.

Crude oil is trading around $92.83 within a downtrend channel and testing resistance levels after reaching $93.65 near the 200 EMA.

If USD/OIL consolidates above the 200 EMA in the coming hours, this could be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at the gap left on May 22 around $95.99. Ultimately, it could reach the upper band of the downtrend channel around $96.42.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal for crude oil, so we believe it could continue its rise in the coming days. Should a technical correction occur in the coming hours toward the psychological level of $90, this could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions with a target at $96.50.

On the H4 chart, we can see that crude oil is trading within an uptrend channel. If a break above $96.50 occurs, the instrument could easily reach the psychological level of $100 and might even reach May's high around $103.40.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to buy crude oil in the event of a technical correction toward the 21 SMA at $89.31 or toward the lower band of the uptrend channel around $90.34, which could be seen as a clear signal to open long positions.

Gold is trading around $4,474, reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the low of 4,365 to the high of 4,595.

If gold consolidates above $4,460 in the coming hours and above the 61.8% Fibonacci area, it could be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at the 21 SMA around $4,511.

Even a decisive break above the 38.2% Fibonacci level could prompt gold to continue its uptrend, potentially reaching the 200 EMA at around $4,597.

Conversely, if gold falls below $4,460, the downtrend could be confirmed, and we can expect a retest of the key 6/8 Murray support around $4,375.

Gold is under downward pressure. So, if a pullback occurs toward $4,511 or $4,597, its bearish cycle could resume, with prices expected to reach $4,375 in the short term.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, but XAU/USD may struggle to continue rising as it is under downward pressure; only a decisive break above $4,600 in the coming days could trigger a new bullish sequence, in which case we could expect the instrument to reach $4,750.

The British pound is trading at 1.3453 within an uptrend channel that has been forming since May 18, showing positive momentum but struggling to break through strong resistance at the 3/8 Murray line.

If the British pound consolidates above the 200 EMA around 1.3464 in the coming hours, this could be considered a buy signal, with targets toward 1.3488. Even if the GBP breaks above this level, it could reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around 1.3532.

Conversely, if the British pound falls below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA, it could continue its technical correction cycle and reach the 4/8 Murray level around 1.3427, and could even find strong support around the lower band of the uptrend channel at approximately 1.3400.

Technically, the British pound has more potential to continue rising in the coming days, so we could buy as long as the price consolidates above the 4/8 Murray level. Then, GBP/USD could reach the 6/8 Murray level around 1.3550 in the short term.

Conversely, a decisive break below the uptrend channel and consolidation below 1.3400 could shift the outlook for the British pound, and we could expect a decline toward the 3/8 Murray level at 1.3366, or GBP/USD could even sink to the 2/8 Murray level around 1.3305—a price level reached on May 18.

The Eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, so if GBP/USD hits resistance levels such as 1.3488 around the 5/8 Murray level or reaches the 6/8 Murray level, this could be seen as an area to open short positions.

Yesterday, the dollar strengthened against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets amid another escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Ongoing strikes and countermeasures create an atmosphere of uncertainty in global markets, forcing investors to seek refuge in traditionally safe assets, such as the US dollar. This trend has been intensifying recently.

An important factor in the dollar's strengthening was the recently released data on US job openings for April. This figure, which rose to 7.618 million from March's 6.887 million, exceeded analysts' expectations. The significant increase in job openings, as measured by JOLTS, indicates the continued strength of the US labor market. Despite some signs of potential slowing, strong labor demand suggests the US economy remains resilient, which in turn supports the dollar.

Today's first half is expected to be busy, with important economic data for the Eurozone, including the May services PMI and the composite PMI. These macroeconomic indicators are crucial because they reflect the state of key sectors of the Eurozone economy and serve as leading indicators of future trends. The services PMI index, for example, covers a wide range of business activities, from tourism to finance, and its dynamics are directly linked to consumer demand and investments. Weak data in the services sector, especially following previous positive signals, could raise concerns about slowing economic growth in the region. The producers' price index (PPI) will also be important, as it is another critical indicator that anticipates changes in consumer price index (CPI) dynamics. If the PPI shows unexpected acceleration in growth, it could intensify concerns about further inflationary pressures, which, paradoxically, could create a negative backdrop for the euro.

As for the pound, the first half of the day is expected to be pivotal for the British economy, with crucial data likely to significantly impact sterling's exchange rate. Market attention will be on the PMI indices for key sectors—specifically, the UK services PMI and the composite PMI, which reflects overall business activity. These indicators are among the most sensitive barometers of economic conditions, and their dynamics enable timely assessments of current trends and forecasts of future developments.

Economists' forecasts, unfortunately, do not inspire optimism. Both indices are expected to remain below the 50-point mark. A value above 50 indicates an acceleration of business activity, while a figure below reflects a slowdown or, worse yet, contraction.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes out significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy would be more suitable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.1635, which may lead to an increase in the euro towards 1.1678 and 1.1698.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.1620, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1579 and 1.1550.

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.3480, which may lead to an increase in the pound towards 1.3510 and 1.3545.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.3455, which may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3411 and 1.3370.

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout of the level 160.02, which may lead to an increase in the dollar towards 160.24 and 160.43.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 159.83, which may lead to dollar sell-offs towards 159.60 and 159.39.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1642 when returning below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1616 when returning to this level.

For GBP/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3478 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3447 when returning to this level.

For AUD/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7189 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7167 when returning to this level.

For USD/CAD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3855 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3831 when returning to this level.

The latest drop in Bitcoin could have been triggered by a series of factors that do not contradict the technical picture. For example, the company Strategy announced its first Bitcoin sale in the last six years, totaling $2.5 million. Essentially, Michael Saylor's company sold just 32 coins from the first cryptocurrency between May 26 and May 31. This is a pittance, but it sends a signal to the market: a company that has held to the principle of "never sell Bitcoin" for the past decade has renounced it. The initial sale was minimal, but subsequent sales could be much larger. It's worth noting that the average purchase price of Bitcoin for Strategy is around $78,000. Thus, we can confidently say that all investments in "digital gold," often financed by borrowed funds, are currently unprofitable.

Additionally, the chances of a full resolution to the war in the Middle East have declined again. The market has long awaited optimistic news, but received nothing but empty promises from Trump. Frankly, we do not believe that the failure of geopolitical negotiations triggered Bitcoin's decline. However, the combination of factors (technical conditions, Strategy's Bitcoin sale, a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and geopolitics) may have dealt a heavy blow to "digital gold." We also remind you that in recent weeks, we have consistently highlighted low spot demand and capital outflows from ETFs.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend and a correction against it. The trend structure is identified as bearish, and the CHOCH line remains at the level of $97,900. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to be completed. With no signs of a bullish trend shift, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a sell signal formed in the $79,500-$81,100 range, and on the hourly timeframe, the upward structure broke, providing confirmation. The price has entered the liquidity pool, thus accelerating the decline. This week, new bearish FVGs will likely form, enabling new short positions to be opened.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the 4H Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has transitioned from forming a downward structure to a collapse. The CHOCH line supporting the downward trend is located at $78,000 and may be shifted lower in the coming days. We still see no fundamental basis for Bitcoin's long-term strengthening, and spot demand remains weak. Last week, liquidity was withdrawn from the last local peak, after which a new phase of decline began. Bearish patterns can be used to open new short positions, but the decline is so strong that it is better to utilize the daily timeframe now.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to establish a full downward trend and correction against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of the beginning of a long-term bullish trend. The signal in the near-term bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the area of $79,300 - $81,200, was formed and confirmed on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we are currently oriented towards the continuation of the downward trend, and bearish patterns remain a priority in trading.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• CHOCH: Change of trend structure.
• Liquidity: Stop losses, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG: Fair Value Gap. Prices move quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in the continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG: Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
• OB: Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to secure liquidity for forming their position in the opposite direction.

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday, June 3. If we set aside all secondary data that will undoubtedly be ignored by the market, the key reports left are the ADP and ISM reports from the US. The first report concerns the labor market, showing the number of private-sector jobs. The second is the services sector activity index. Despite the importance of these reports, we have no confidence that the market will even notice them. Traders continue to wait for a geopolitical resolution that clearly indicates what to expect in the near future in the Middle East.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Wednesday, noteworthy speeches will be made by Michael Barr and Lori Logan from the Federal Reserve, as well as Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson from the European Central Bank. Remember that only the ECB can change its key rate at the next meeting. Currently, there is no certainty on this, as a rate hike would place additional pressure on the European economy, which is already slowing due to rising energy prices. Therefore, the speeches from ECB representatives are interesting but have little impact on the euro since the market remains fully focused on geopolitics.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to be troubling, as Iran and the US have once again moved closer to resuming conflict and failing negotiations. Talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing and, according to the US president, are "very successful." However, no confirmations of diplomatic success have come from Iran. The parties regularly violate the terms of the ceasefire, and this week, Tehran even declared its intention to cease all diplomatic contacts with Washington.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade relatively weakly unless new messages emerge concerning the conflict and ceasefire in the Middle East. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3456-1.3476. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair did not trade at all on Tuesday. While the euro dropped 20 pips by the end of the day, the pound couldn't even manage that. The pair spent the entire day within the range of 1.3456-1.3476. In other words, the day's volatility did not exceed 30 pips. In the EUR/USD article, we mentioned that, in theory, the market's reaction to some events could be present, but it is not visible on the charts and has no impact. The British pound dispels these doubts—there is simply no reaction to either geopolitical or macroeconomic events. Formally, a new downward trend continues after breaching the ascending trend line, but the price is not falling. Perhaps the upward trend is taking on a more complex structure and remains intact, but the pound cannot hold above 1.3476. It's an absolutely stalemate situation. We should expect some resolution and at least some movement.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, no trading signals were generated, as the price remained within the area intended to generate these signals throughout the day. However, the movements during the day were absent, so there was no basis for novice traders to enter the market.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend, as geopolitical tensions are worsening again, and the trend line has been breached. However, without resuming full-scale war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect to rise as it did in February-March. Separate events may still provoke their strengthening, but we do not believe that the market will initiate a new wave of risk aversion.

On Wednesday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.3380-1.3386 if the price consolidates below the 1.3456-1.3476 area. If the price consolidates above the 1.3456-1.3476 area, long positions can be opened with targets of 1.3587-1.3598. However, be mindful of the low volatility.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. The calendar still shows a lack of significant events for Wednesday in the UK, while the US will release the ISM and ADP reports, which are quite important, but which the market may completely ignore.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade within a sideways channel, as shown on the hourly chart. Traders still cannot find grounds to buy or sell the pair. The macroeconomic backdrop is largely ignored, the fundamentals have little significance, and the market is awaiting important geopolitical news and events rather than more threats, ultimatums, and promises. As a result, news is coming in almost daily, but the movements have been absent for three weeks. Just yesterday, an inflation report was released in the Eurozone, with the core indicator being higher than forecasts. Thus, the likelihood of an European Central Bank rate hike in June increased, which should have supported the euro. However, we did not see any growth. The same applies to the US JOLTs report. If there is any market reaction, it has no impact—flat trading persists.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Tuesday, and the market woke up a bit closer to the evening, showing a small decline of 20 pips. These 20 pips could be earned by novice traders, which is quite a good profit given the current circumstances.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the euro has been in correction for a month and has been flat for three weeks. The US dollar has resumed its rise amid the conflict in the Middle East, which is on the brink of escalation, but we still do not expect prolonged strength for the American currency. The market continues to largely ignore fundamentals and macroeconomics, while selectively reacting to geopolitical issues.

On Wednesday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1584-1.1591 if the price bounces again from the 1.1655-1.1666 area. New long positions can be considered if the price bounces from the 1.1584-1.1591 area, targeting 1.1655-1.1666.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following levels: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. Among the more or less significant events on Wednesday, we can highlight the ADP report on employment changes in the US private sector and the ISM Services Activity Index. However, the first two days of the week have shown that the market continues to ignore macroeconomic data.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded on Tuesday with low volatility, similar to the previous two weeks. As we analyzed in the EUR/USD article, there are no compelling reasons for the market to either sell or buy at this time. The entire flow of geopolitical news can be easily summarized by one harsh fact: the parties are talking more than they are acting. Ninety percent of threats do not materialize; negotiations intermittently start and stop, and the deal that Trump claimed was "95% ready" two weeks ago has yet to be signed, even as the ceasefire remains in effect and the parties continue trying to negotiate.

We have asked before what exactly Washington and Tehran are trying to agree on, given that Iran has clearly stated it will not abandon its nuclear development or export enriched uranium. Nevertheless, negotiations continue with brief pauses, so there is still a chance for a deal. However, let's step away from the geopolitical topic, as it has already tired many. Is there a likelihood of interesting movements soon based on fundamentals, macroeconomics, or technicals?

Unfortunately, we would not place much hope in such developments under current circumstances. The market continues to ignore all the aforementioned factors, while geopolitical news is now filtered through a very strict sieve. Traders are ready to react to events such as a resumption of hostilities, a complete breakdown in negotiations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. In other words, they are prepared to respond to deeds, facts, and events rather than to words, threats, and ultimatums. Regarding macroeconomic events, a strong ISM manufacturing index was released in the US on Monday. The dollar rose for about 2 hours before falling.

Yesterday, an inflation report was released in the Eurozone, opening the door for the European Central Bank to raise rates at the next meeting. And what happened? Did anyone see a strong rise in the euro? At the end of the week, reports on the labor market and unemployment will be published in the US, and we are almost certain the market's reaction will be, at best, local. That is, the dollar may rise or fall momentarily, but within a few hours, the quotes will return to their initial positions, and the market will resume waiting for significant geopolitical events.

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair has been in a sideways trend for about 8 or 9 months, as shown on the daily timeframe. If it weren't for the war in the Middle East, which has made the US dollar much more appealing, we are confident that the global upward trend would have already resumed. It is worth noting that in January of this year, both the euro and the pound set new four-year highs, and their strengthening likely wouldn't have stopped there. But then Donald Trump intervened, and why he did so may remain unclear even to him: now the dollar no longer falls (as Trump wishes), and the Federal Reserve is set to tighten monetary policy, even with Kevin Warsh.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days as of June 3 is 61 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Wednesday, June 3, we expect the pair to trade within the range between 1.3411 and 1.3533. The upper channel of linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has not formed any signals lately.

Nearest support levels:

• S1 – 1.3428
• S2 – 1.3367
• S3 – 1.3303

Nearest resistance levels:

• R1 – 1.3489
• R2 – 1.3550
• R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to recover after a 300 pip decline. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US currency to show long-term growth. However, 2026 looks super positive for the dollar due to geopolitics. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3533 and 1.3611 may be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306 may be traded based on geopolitical factors. The market often changes, and it continues to focus predominantly on geopolitical news that lacks uniformity.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Price levels (areas) of support and resistance (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of the net position in each category of traders.

The EUR/USD pair traded on Tuesday in the same manner as in recent weeks—exhibiting low volatility and a minimal upward tilt. In the current circumstances, it seems unnecessary to analyze which levels were breached and which were not, as 90% of the current movement is pure flat. Consequently, we can draw an important conclusion: the market is now ignoring not only macroeconomic factors but also geopolitics. Over the past two weeks, there has been a tremendous amount of news from the Middle East and the White House, but what impact have they had? Is the US dollar rising? No. Is the euro rising? No. The pair remains stagnant within a narrow range, and the market's response is confined to fluctuations within that range.

Essentially, there is currently nothing in the geopolitical arena for the market to react to. Washington and Tehran continue to bombard each other with threats, intermittently wanting to launch new strikes against their opponent, exit negotiations, or sign an agreement, and then strike again. The market has simply grown tired of such contradictory information. For example, on Monday, Iran's state media reported that Tehran has decided to suspend negotiations in response to new Israeli attacks in Lebanon. The market is prepared to buy dollars. Just a few hours later, it became known that Trump had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and dissuaded him from sending troops and launching missile strikes on Lebanon. What does this indicate? Washington does not want escalation, but does want to extract maximum benefit from the negotiations.

In essence, Trump once again applied the TACO principle—Trump Always Chickens Out. After two weeks of unending threats and numerous ceasefire violations, Trump determined that Iran's termination of negotiations was not quite what he needed personally. I say "personally" because the entire conflict in the Middle East is certainly not in America's interests. Trump is addressing his geopolitical ambitions rather than those of the US. As the resumption of conflict between Israel and Lebanon could genuinely lead to Iran's withdrawal from negotiations, Trump rightly concluded that intervention is necessary before it is too late.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Iran promised to reinforce the blockade yesterday, as negotiations in the US have again reached an impasse, while simultaneously threatening to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait with the help of friendly Yemen. This has also implemented the NACHO principle—Not A Chance Hormuz Opens. As already mentioned, the market has reacted very little to all these events, aside from the intraday "convulsions." Traders rightly believe that, fundamentally, nothing has changed in recent weeks: Hormuz remains closed, negotiations intermittently commence and cease, transactions remain absent, peace is not achieved, but the ceasefire continues to hold. Without significant geopolitical changes or upheavals, expecting strong growth in the euro or the dollar is unlikely to be realistic.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 3 is 52 pips and is characterized as "medium-low." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1587 and 1.1691 on Wednesday. The upper channel of linear regression has turned upwards, indicating a trend change to bullish. In fact, the upward trend from 2025 could have resumed as early as March. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and formed two "bearish" divergences, signaling the start of a downward correction that is still not complete.

Nearest support levels:

• S1 – 1.1597
• S2 – 1.1536
• S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

• R1 – 1.1658
• R2 – 1.1719
• R3 – 1.1780

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, which is presumably a correction within the broader upward trend. The global fundamental background for the dollar remains extremely negative, and only geopolitical factors regularly provide it with support. If the price remains below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1597 and 1.1587. Above the moving average line, long positions are viable with targets of 1.1691 and 1.1719. The market continues to distance itself from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks, the dollar has been in demand as hopes for peace in the Middle East have weakened.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Price levels (areas) of support and resistance (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of the net position in each category of traders.

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded with low volatility on Tuesday and failed to break out of the sideways channel between 1.3377 and 1.3480. Throughout the day, we observed the pair "convulsing" around the 1.3465-1.3480 area and the Senkou Span B line. Traders were unable to either bounce off or break through this resistance, despite the release of geopolitical and macroeconomic data. In the US, the not-so-important JOLTS report on job openings was released yesterday. This report indicates how many job openings there were in a given month. In April, 7.618 million were opened, against expectations of 6.88 million, making the actual value resonant, but the market paid no attention to this release, which was not surprising. Additionally, neither Trump's new promises nor news about Iran's refusal to engage in further negotiations impacted GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend began after breaking the trend line, but in recent weeks, the price has been tightly stuck between 1.3369-1.3377 and 1.3465-1.3480. The upper boundary of this channel could not be overcome, so we may soon see movement towards the lower boundary. Geopolitics remains uncertain, so until the situation clarifies, the pound may remain in a sideways channel.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, no trading signals were generated, as the price remained between 1.3465 and 1.3480, which themselves form a resistance area. This time, traders were trading the pair within the resistance area.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound show that in recent years, the sentiment among commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines reflecting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently intersect and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, with non-commercial traders still dominating with... short positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for riskier currencies is falling, while demand for the dollar is rising.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, as evidenced by the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are both directly and indirectly aimed at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors take precedence, which have recently provided strong support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East cannot be considered resolved, the US dollar can still show growth in the future. According to the latest COT report (as of May 26), the Non-Commercial group closed 10,100 buy contracts and 13,000 sell contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 3,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has ended its upward trend due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the relations between Iran and the US. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop continues to have little impact on the pair's movements. We do not believe that without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar can show strong growth. The American currency can only rely on the failure of US-Iran negotiations and a resumption of hostilities.

For June 3, we highlight the following important trading levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, and 1.3751-1.3763. The lines of Senkou Span B (1.3477) and Kijun-sen (1.3427) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set a Stop Loss to breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Wednesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK, while in the US, important reports such as ADP employment and ISM services activity will be published. We wouldn't be surprised if these reports are also ignored by the market.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders can open short positions targeting 1.3369-1.3377 if the pair bounces off the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Long positions can be opened on a bounce from the 1.3369-1.3377 area, targeting the 1.3465-1.3480 area.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of each category of traders' net position.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade between a series of levels, areas, and lines on Tuesday. Overall, there is little point in analyzing which levels were breached and which were not. Sideways movement with a minimal upward slope and low volatility is evident. Currently, the euro is trading against the dollar between the Senkou Span B line and the 1.1615-1.1625 area. Essentially, the movements observed daily are market noise rather than reactions to events. The macroeconomic backdrop remains largely ignored, and the market is clearly fatigued by geopolitical issues.

On Tuesday, the EU released the May inflation report, significantly raising the chances of the European Central Bank tightening monetary policy in June, despite the forecasts aligning with the actual value. The market also paid no attention to Trump's new promises of a forthcoming peace agreement with Iran.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend remains, as the pair still cannot break above the Senkou Span B line. For almost three weeks, we have witnessed a sideways movement following a strong decline, which best indicates the weakness of the bulls and a lack of geopolitical growth factors. However, bears are also hesitant to open new positions, as geopolitical uncertainty remains high.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, the price spent all day between the Kijun-sen line and the 1.1657-1.1666 area. Searching for signals in this area and opening positions made little sense, as the nearest targets were out of reach.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated May 26. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly decreasing due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but for a time, the dollar was a "reserve currency." However, this process may already be complete.

We still see no fundamental factors for the strengthening of the euro, while there are sufficient factors for the decline of the dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor expires, everything will revert to normal. In the long term, the euro may drop as low as 1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Currently, the pair has not deviated significantly from the descending trend line, which has been broken several times.

The positioning of the red and blue lines in the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-Commercial group decreased by 10,200, while the number of shorts decreased by 6,100. Accordingly, the net position fell by 4,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a downward trend and remains generally flat. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, not worsening, and Washington and Tehran are likely only dreaming of signing a preliminary agreement. If no new signs of a resumption of war in the Middle East emerge and the memorandum is truly signed, the dollar may begin to lose ground. But for now, we are observing neither of these scenarios.

For June 3, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1683) and Kijun-sen line (1.1636). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Wednesday, only minor data will be published in the Eurozone, while the US will release relatively important ADP employment and ISM services activity reports. However, given the market's current reaction to significant reports, as observed on Monday and Tuesday, significant movements are not anticipated.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.1585 and 1.1542 if the price consolidates below the 1.1615-1.1625 area. Long positions can be opened on a bounce from the 1.1615-1.1625 area, targeting the 1.1657-1.1666 area and the Senkou Span B line.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of each category of traders' net position.