However, the upward dynamics of AUD/USD are driven not only by geopolitics but also by divergent monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While the Fed is adopting a wait-and-see stance (not ruling out a rate cut by the end of this year), the RBA continues to adopt a hawkish stance, leaving open the possibility of another interest rate hike at one of the upcoming meetings.

Notably, the Australian central bank has even ignored the February slowdown in inflation. On a monthly basis, the overall CPI fell to 0% (after a 0.4% increase in January), while year-over-year it fell to 3.7% (down from 3.8%). Commenting on this report, RBA officials pointed to seasonal factors. For example, in February, there was a sharp decline in demand for airline tickets and hotels (as the school holidays ended), after which operators returned prices to their "standard" levels, removing holiday surcharges.

In other words, RBA members ignored the February "pullback" in inflation and maintained a hawkish stance. It is important to remember that following the March meeting, the decision to raise rates was tenuous—five members of the Council voted "for" while four voted "against." However, the four abstaining argued for a hawkish pause, citing uncertainty regarding the level of tension in the labor market and uncertainty about quarterly inflation dynamics (data for the first quarter will be published at the end of this month).

This is why Thursday's release is so important for AUD/USD traders, as we will receive key labor market data for March.

According to preliminary forecasts, unemployment in Australia is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% in March. The number of employed should increase by 18,000. This is a relatively decent result, but the ratio of full-time to part-time employment will be crucial. For instance, in the previous month, the indicator's overall growth occurred solely due to part-time employment, while full-time employment decreased (the ratio was -30,500/+79,400). If the March report reflects another sharp decline in full-time employment, the Australian dollar will come under pressure, even if the overall unemployment remains low.

Conversely, if employment rises more than expected and the main driver of growth is full-time positions, AUD/USD buyers will once again find themselves "in the driver's seat," as such a result would be a key trigger for the RBA's decision on further tightening of monetary policy in the current context.

Attention should also be paid to the total number of hours worked. In February, this figure declined, a direct result of the shift in the employment structure towards part-time positions. If this downward trend continues (both in the context of the bias towards part-time work and in the context of decreased hours worked), it will indicate a reduction in the actual volume of productive labor, which could lead to a long-term slowdown in GDP growth.

However, if these components of the release fall into the "green zone," the compressed spring will unwind in the opposite direction, favoring the Australian dollar.

Thus, Thursday's report is of great importance to AUD/USD traders—especially if Middle Eastern events unfold in a de-escalatory manner. If Iran and the U.S. sit down for negotiations once more, or if the two-week ceasefire is extended, there will be sustained interest in risk assets, and macroeconomic reports will return to the forefront. In such a case, the "Australian non-farms" will play a crucial role for AUD/USD—at least in the medium-term outlook.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is on the daily chart between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands and above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator (including above the Kumo cloud). A similar pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, with the difference being that the Ichimoku indicator here shows a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. Any corrective downward pullbacks in the pair should be viewed as opportunities to open long positions, with the first (and currently only) target at 0.7150 (the upper Bollinger Band line on the D1 timeframe).

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed not only to foreign vessels but also to Iranian ones. In this way, Donald Trump is trying to further weaken the Iranian economy, for which oil sales are one of the main sources of income. Currently, the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been in place for only a few days, during which no vessels have been able to exit the Persian Gulf. Iran has not yet responded to the blockade, but Tehran has its own cards to play.

In my opinion, Iran is not rushing to take retaliatory measures, wanting to avoid escalating the situation. Although Iran is prepared to engage in military action if necessary, it is unlikely they genuinely wants that. Therefore, on the eve of new negotiations with Washington, which may occur as early as Thursday, Tehran simply does not wish to increase tensions. However, if talks fail again and Tehran realizes that it cannot reach an agreement in the longer term, it may play another card—the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

Formally, access to the Bab al-Mandab Strait is controlled by three countries: Eritrea, Djibouti, and Yemen. Yemen is an ally of Iran, so Tehran could potentially block this strait through the Houthis. Frankly, I think Iran would resort to such measures if the American blockade is not lifted soon and negotiations with Washington once again end in failure. Before the war, approximately 9.3 million barrels of oil passed through the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait daily. Therefore, if the strait is blocked, global markets could lose about 10-15% of their oil supply. In this case, even futures prices for oil (which are typically lower than spot prices) could surge to at least $150 per barrel, while spot prices could exceed $200.

It's important to note that the Houthis control a significant portion of the Yemeni coastline near the Bab-al-Mandab Strait, so they could easily take control of it. Currently, the Houthis are not involved in the Iran-U.S. conflict, but they could step in on Tehran's side at any moment.

The Gulf countries are currently leaning toward diplomacy and are not interested in Iran establishing total control over the two main oil arteries in the region. Iran has repeatedly indicated that it could block both straits if Washington and its allies continue to apply pressure. Additionally, Iran plans to charge tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab-al-Mandab Strait may face the same fate. The full resolution of the conflict is still a long way off.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in an upward section of the trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set looks quite complete and may take on a more complex, elongated form only if a stable ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may start from the current positions. A failed attempt to break the 1.1824 mark may lead to a price retreat from the recent highs.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had assumed. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an extension in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound may rise to levels of 1.3594 and 1.3698, corresponding to 61.8% and 76.1% Fibonacci levels. If a ceasefire is reached, the corrective segment of the trend may turn into an impulsive one. A failed attempt to break the 1.3594 mark could lead to a retreat from the reached peaks.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back, and they often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement for the eighth consecutive day amid U.S. dollar weakness. This creates conditions for the euro's growth, as markets are buoyed by optimistic expectations of a resumption of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The primary driver of the euro's rise is the weakening of the dollar rather than significant fundamental indicators of the Eurozone economy.

Currently, the EUR/USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1800, near monthly highs. However, price dynamics remain constrained due to a lack of fresh geopolitical news. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six major currencies, remains near March lows.

Investors are eagerly awaiting confirmation of a second round of peace talks following Trump's comments that discussions could take place "over the next two days" in Pakistan. In an interview with Fox Business, he said, "The war with Iran could end very soon."

This has heightened hopes for a potential agreement, especially after unsuccessful negotiations last week that led to the U.S. decision to impose a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is preparing to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days as the U.S. increases pressure on Iran to conclude a deal, maintaining a high level of uncertainty.

In addition to geopolitical factors, inflation risks stemming from high oil prices continue to influence expectations of monetary policy from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Although hopes for the de-escalation of conflicts have led to a decline in oil prices from recent highs, alleviating pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, prices are still high and remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, keeping inflation risks in focus. Markets are now anticipating that the Fed will maintain interest rates at current levels in the coming months, while the ECB is considering raising them.

Further actions by traders will focus on analyzing Eurozone inflation data, with publication expected on Thursday, following preliminary reports indicating inflation growth above the ECB's target level of 2%.

ECB President Joachim Nagel stated that the monetary policy decision in April will depend on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, noting that the "lack of clarity" forces the ECB to keep "all options on the table." Nagel also emphasized the absence of pre-commitments regarding interest rates and that the ECB aims for price stability.

In conclusion, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Beth Hammack, stated that "rates are in a balanced state," adding that "the main task is to keep rates at current levels for some time."

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above key moving averages. Oscillators are positive, indicating an advantage for bulls. The nearest support is at 1.1750, followed by the round level at 1.1700. The round level at 1.1800 serves as resistance. After that, the pair will be poised to challenge the next resistance zone around 1.1830 – 1.1850 on its way to the round level at 1.1900.

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair paused its advance, consolidating around 1.3570 amid weakening optimism about the resumption of U.S.-Iranian negotiations. At the same time, the U.S. stock market continues to show upward momentum, and the U.S. dollar appears to have reached a local bottom after dropping to a six-week low.

The British pound is consolidating amid the Federal Reserve's neutral stance, which offsets the weakening of the American currency. Investors' moderate optimism reduces the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Positive reactions on Wall Street greeted the news of the ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran for several more weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the conflict with Iran is coming to an end, emphasizing that "amazing days are ahead," which may indicate the parties are close to an agreement.

According to The Washington Post, the Pentagon has deployed additional military forces to the Middle East. At the same time, the Pakistani military confirmed that Marshal Asim Munir would visit Tehran to resolve disputes between the two countries.

U.S. reports on export and import prices; however, the markets hardly reacted to their publication. Investors' focus remains on Federal Reserve representatives. Beth Hammack from the Cleveland branch noted that the base rate is likely to remain at current levels "for quite some time," emphasizing the lack of need for immediate changes in monetary policy.

Expectations that the Fed will keep the rate unchanged contrast with the Bank of England's policy, which is expected to tighten monetary conditions by about 38 basis points by the end of the year. This difference in interest rates increases the pound's appeal and creates conditions for further growth in the GBP/USD pair.

The hawkish stance of the BoE is strengthened against the backdrop of the UK's dependence on imported natural gas, the price of which has risen by nearly 40%. However, the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may prompt investors to lock in some profits and reduce long positions in the pound.

Earlier, BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene, known for her hawkish stance even before the conflict with Iran began, noted that inflationary pressures remain. According to her, the impact of the energy shock on the British economy may only manifest itself in a few months due to the sharp rise in energy costs.

In the near future, market participants will focus on the upcoming U.K. GDP data, where a slight improvement is anticipated from 0% to 0.1% growth in February. Reports on initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, as well as speeches by Fed representatives, are expected in the U.S.

From a technical perspective, oscillators are positive. The pair is consolidating near the previous day's high, trading above the key moving averages. All of this confirms the bullish sentiment.

The table below shows the dynamics of the British pound's percentage change against key currencies, highlighting its strengthening against the Swiss franc.

As of mid-April 2026, the gold market remains close to historical highs: traders and investors continue to assess the implications of the U.S.-Iran confrontation for energy, inflation, and the dollar's exchange rate. Against this backdrop, UBS analysts have increased their optimism about the precious metal, linking further growth to the persistence of geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a softer interest-rate trajectory.

In a recent analysis report, UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo reaffirmed his forecast. According to the bank, by the end of 2026, the price of gold could range from $5,900 to $6,200 per ounce, indicating a growth of about 20% from current levels.

On Wednesday, gold was trading around $4,839 per ounce following a brief rise to a monthly high of $4,895; however, prices pulled back afterward. This was due to a new wave of interest in riskier assets and the anticipation of a possible resumption of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

UBS specifically notes that the dynamics since the start of the U.S.-Iran military operation on February 28 have been less favorable than expected: gold has failed to confidently break through resistance at $5,200. In contrast, the bank reminds us of last year's scenario, where the rise was 65%.

Although interest in hedging remains, UBS identifies rising oil prices as a limiting factor. High oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns and support the dollar, thereby reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.

At the same time, the bank emphasizes that gold reacts not only to immediate combat events but primarily to broader economic consequences of the conflict—currency devaluation, budget deficits, and slowing growth.

The key rate is a focal point in UBS's projections, with the bank forecasting two 25-basis-point cuts by September. According to UBS logic, this will lead to a weakening of the dollar and a reduction in real yields, creating a "tailwind" for gold.

UBS's optimism coincides with actions from other major players. Private bank HSBC reported restructuring its portfolios, specifically reducing its holdings in Indian stocks and increasing investments in gold, cash, and hedge funds. The rationale for this decision includes risks associated with the war in Iran and high oil prices (according to Bloomberg).

Patrick Ho, HSBC Private Banking's Chief Investment Officer for North Asia, described India as the "most vulnerable" emerging market in Asia due to its sensitivity to energy costs.

Earlier, HSBC's research department expected gold to rise to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, based on geopolitical risks and concerns about government debt. However, the bank warned of a likely correction in the second half of the year if tensions begin to ease.

The market's tone continues to be set by the fragile interactions surrounding the U.S. and Iran. Following the disruption of peace talks on April 12, the dollar strengthened, and oil rose above $100 per barrel—amid preparations by the U.S. Navy for a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On that same day, the spot price of gold fell to about $4,717 per ounce—its lowest since April 7. The drop in response to news about diplomacy confirmed the high speed of traders' reactions to changes in the news backdrop.

Giovanni Staunovo noted that ongoing tensions surrounding Iran and the risks in the Strait of Hormuz are putting upward pressure on prices and increasing volatility in commodity markets, particularly the oil market. Even subsequent resolutions, according to UBS, will not eliminate the fundamental reasons for gold's rise.

What This Means for the Market Now

For traders in the coming weeks, the main factors are expected to include: the dynamics of the dollar and real yields (in anticipation of the Fed's decisions), the behavior of the oil market (as an indicator of inflation risks), and the pace of changes in the geopolitical agenda surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Under these conditions, UBS's range ($5,900–$6,200 by the end of 2026) remains a key benchmark for gold trading strategies.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January last year, but the wave structure now looks very ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and analyzing simpler, smaller wave structures to make short-term forecasts—which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. It is easiest to trade based on standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulsive structure with an extension in the third wave. If this is indeed the case, then the formation of this structure is complete, and a corrective structure of at least three waves is currently developing. Therefore, in the near term, an increase in quotes should be expected, but within a correction relative to the last trend segment. For now, recent wave formations do not fit well into the higher-level structure, but clarity should come over time. The euro may continue recovering toward the 1.1824 level.

The EUR/USD pair maintained a bullish bias throughout Wednesday, although price movements were minimal. At this stage, it can be assumed that the corrective wave is nearing completion. However, what should be expected next from EUR/USD? It is worth noting that after an impulsive trend segment, a correction does not always have to follow. If that were the case, higher-level trends would never change—which is impossible. Therefore, the probability that a new impulsive trend segment began on March 16 is also quite high. Geopolitics will help clarify this question.

It must be acknowledged that the situation in the Middle East has become significantly less tense in recent weeks. Although the conflict has not officially ended, active strikes have ceased. Donald Trump and J.D. Vance are increasingly speaking about a large-scale agreement and the end of the war, while Iran remains silent. However, there is no escalation, which means there is potential for de-escalation. Against this backdrop, the euro has managed to recover, but further movement will require either positive or negative news from the Middle East.

In my view, the conflict will gradually fade on its own, which would be the most positive scenario. The White House cannot concede to Tehran, admit its inability to force Iran to abandon nuclear development, or acknowledge defeat in the war (since the main objectives have not been achieved). Iran, in turn, is not willing to initiate a new conflict but also has no intention of complying with Washington's demands. This creates a stalemate, from which Washington is trying to exit while saving face. The key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz.

General conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart) and, in the short term, within a corrective structure. The corrective wave structure appears largely complete and could become more complex and extended only if a stable ceasefire is established between Iran, the US, Israel, and all other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe a new downward wave structure could begin from current levels. A failed attempt to break above 1.1824 may lead to a pullback from recent highs.

On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. It is better to focus on clear structures on charts rather than strictly adhering to every wave count. The trend may reverse in the near future.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty about market direction—always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

I also mentioned in recent articles that an important and relatively rare "Three Drives pattern" had formed, after which the upward movement began. Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, while the trend remained bullish throughout. At present, the ceasefire is quite fragile, and the parties involved have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume fighting. Talks may resume this week, which is a positive factor. The Strait of Hormuz is under a double blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may join it, which is a negative factor. However, as of Wednesday, the overall situation has not changed. The Middle East situation may worsen, but it could also continue moving toward de-escalation.

The probability of a decline in both pairs remains, as the ceasefire in the Middle East is still fragile. At the same time, the "Three Drives pattern," marked by a triangle on the chart, allowed bulls to take the initiative, which is already significant. A second reaction to imbalance 16 may occur today, but second reactions are usually weaker than the first. The pair may also sweep liquidity from the February 26 high. Together, these two factors could trigger a corrective pullback. On the other hand, the only bullish pattern worth noting is imbalance 18, which has already produced a price reaction. A new imbalance may form this week. I would also remind that EUR/USD still has an untested bullish imbalance. The price may react to it, generate a buy signal, and in that case, the pound will likely follow the euro.

The economic news background on Wednesday was absent. Geopolitics has not improved significantly in recent days, but the most pessimistic scenario has already been priced in. For bears to resume attacking, the situation in the Middle East would need to deteriorate significantly—for example, with renewed hostilities or a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In the United States, the overall fundamental backdrop suggests that, in the long term, little can be expected from the dollar except decline. Even the war between Iran and the US does little to change this. The outlook for the US dollar remains quite challenging in the long term. The US labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving closer to recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, the fourth major wave of protests against Donald Trump has already taken place across the country. From an economic perspective, I see no solid reasons for dollar growth.

A bearish trend requires a strong and stable positive backdrop for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Geopolitics supported the dollar for two months, but that support is now fading. It cannot be ruled out that the US currency may rise again due to geopolitical factors, but at present, there are no clear reasons to expect this.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

• United Kingdom – GDP change for February (06:00 UTC)
• United Kingdom – Industrial production (06:00 UTC)
• United States – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)
• United States – Industrial production (13:15 UTC)

On April 16, the economic calendar includes four entries, none of which can be considered particularly important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday is likely to be weak or absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the long-term picture remains bullish. The "Three Drives pattern" warned traders of potential growth, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a bullish signal. The price swept liquidity from the last two bullish swings, but bears failed to launch an attack—another positive sign for the pound.

Thus, under current conditions, despite geopolitical factors, I believe the upward movement will continue. Most likely, the euro will also keep rising, and the pound may follow. I see the 2026 high as the target for GBP/USD. A reaction to imbalance 16 may trigger a corrective pullback.

All of the US dollar's growth over the past one and a half to two months has been driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and bulls launched their attack. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile but is holding despite the failure of negotiations in Islamabad. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the break of key trend-forming lows. The movement of the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if geopolitics worsen further—but how much worse can it get? Everything that could go wrong has already happened. Markets often price in the most pessimistic scenario in advance, trying to anticipate the worst possible outcome. Therefore, I believe traders may have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

The chart picture has now become clearer. First, price showed no reaction to imbalance 11 and did not begin a new downward movement—no sell signal was formed. Second, price reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which now represents a zone of interest for future long trades and a support area for the euro.

The news background on Wednesday was practically absent, and after seven days of uninterrupted attacks, bulls decided to take a short pause. Just a pause—nothing more. No important news is expected today, so market movements may remain weak until the end of the day. However, this does not matter much for traders. Long positions are already in solid profit, and there are currently no new signals.

There are still plenty of reasons for bulls to stay active in 2026, and even the outbreak of the Middle East conflict has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a sharp decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the US currency may still show growth amid risk aversion, but this factor requires continuous escalation in the Middle East, which is unlikely. Just one week of pause—and the euro has already recovered nearly 300 pips. Meanwhile, the dollar lacks other strong supporting factors. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar received temporary support, but what will drive bears in the long term?

News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC)
• US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
• US – Industrial Production (13:15 UTC)

On April 16, the economic calendar contains three entries that are not particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to be very weak or absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news backdrop sharply shifted direction two months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. Therefore, bulls may continue their offensive in the near future, provided geopolitics stops dominating 100% of market attention.

Bulls had the opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12 with a target around 1.1670. This target has long been reached, and the upward movement may continue toward the yearly highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which may provide a new bullish signal in the future.

For the euro to rise without obstacles, the Middle East conflict must move toward a stable peace, which is not currently the case. However, bears are not gaining new reasons to attack either. In the near term, I would focus primarily on technical analysis.

Credit Agricole notes that the move is built on the TACO strategy — "Trump Always Chickens Out." Investors got a lot of practice in 2025 when the White House imposed the largest tariffs since the 1930s. Today, rising global risk appetite is weighing on the dollar's safe-haven role and reducing USD reversal risk priced into markets. Still, Credit Agricole is sceptical that the uptrend in EUR/USD will be sustained.

Dynamics of USD reversal risk

The US and Iran's positions remain far apart. A positive market reaction could encourage Washington to step up pressure on Tehran, which would backfire. The US economy is in better shape than Europe's.

All that makes sense — so why is EUR/USD still rising? Part of the story is the US equity rally, but that is clearly insufficient. Another possible driver is monetary policy divergence: while the market expects nothing from the Fed in 2026, the ECB is priced for two to three tightening moves. However, those hikes will hardly materialize. Most likely, the futures market will revert its bets on fed funds cuts.

USD index performance

What if the dollar's fall is simply the correction of a long-running overvaluation? Harvard researchers argue the greenback is roughly 20% overvalued. Historically, when such overvaluation occurred, the currency declined over the subsequent five to six years.

This view seems to appeal to hedge funds. Morgan Stanley's research shows they actively reduced dollar exposure in the week to April 10. Goldman Sachs finds that, rather than buying the dollar on dips, this group has been selling it amid rallies.

Markets have decided the Middle East will be OK and prefer the optimism trade — the euro — over the pessimists' dollar. As a result, emotion is dominating fundamentals and EUR/USD is rising. How long will this last? Societe Generale says another round of de-escalation headlines could push the pair to 1.20.

Technically, the daily chart shows that EUR/USD is currently pulling back after a seven-day uninterrupted rally. That correction looks normal, and bulls remain in good shape. Key support levels lie near pivot points at 1.1760 and 1.1725. A bounce from those levels would provide an opportunity to add previously established long euro positions.

see also: InstaForex trading indicators for GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY pair continues its steady ascent, showing positive momentum for an eighth session in a row. On Wednesday quotes are consolidating around the midrange near 215.00, edging closer to the July 2008 highs reached near 215.90, and moving toward the 2008 highs at 221.80. The key driver remains the fundamental weakness of the Japanese yen, amid the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and rising stagflation risks for the Japanese economy.

Middle East crisis, hawkish BoE expectations versus stagflationary risks

1. Despite lingering hopes for a resumption of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, investors remain highly concerned about the economic consequences of instability in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States naval blockade of Iranian ports, which came into effect on Monday, threatens further restrictions on oil flows through this strategically important waterway. For Japan, which critically depends on energy imports from the Middle East, this creates an existential threat. The economy, already teetering on the verge of recession, will face significant pressure in the foreseeable future, which directly undermines the yen and serves as a key support factor for GBP/JPY.

The protracted nature of the conflict has materially narrowed the Bank of Japan's options for tightening monetary policy. Whereas, until recently, markets priced in a 60 to 70 percent probability of a rate hike at the April meeting on April 27–28, that scenario is becoming increasingly uncertain.

BoJ policymakers are split into two camps: some focus on rising inflation risks, while others prefer to wait and assess how the conflict will evolve. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Friday that, if the conflict in the Middle East persists and acts to reduce growth while simultaneously accelerating inflation, this will create a dilemma and a hard problem for us.

Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ryohei Akazawa stated that a rate hike in April could be among the options to support the currency, however, his comment encountered institutional constraints.

Economists warn that if the BoJ does not give clear signals, markets will begin to scale back expectations for an April move. This means that, if a hike does occur, it could surprise the market and trigger a rise in bond yields. On the other hand, keeping rates unchanged could also weaken the yen amid fears that the BoJ is falling behind the government bond yield curve.

2. The British pound, meanwhile, continues to receive support from expectations of a more hawkish stance by the Bank of England. Markets currently price in a high probability of at least one, and possibly two, rate hikes this year, as the war-induced jump in energy prices has lifted inflation forecasts.

However, local support for the pound, after Tuesday's trading, was provided only by retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium, which rose 3.1 percent year on year, markedly above forecasts (0.9 percent) and the February reading (0.7 percent).

In focus today are speeches by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, at 15:50 and 18:00 GMT, which may provide new signals on the monetary policy trajectory.

Tomorrow, at 06:00 GMT, a key block of macro data will be released, including the UK GDP report for February. Economists expect growth of 0.1 percent month on month, which is small, but above the prior zero growth.

Key events

Conclusion

GBP/JPY continues to move confidently within a long-term uptrend, driven by the fundamental weakness of the yen. Japan, as a critical importer of Middle Eastern oil, finds itself at the epicenter of an "energy shock," and the outlook for its economy remains bleak. The Bank of Japan, confronted with a dilemma between inflation and recession, is highly likely to maintain a pause, which will continue to pressure the yen.

The pound, in turn, is supported by hawkish expectations, although tomorrow's GDP data pose a risk: a weak print could make markets doubt the BoE's ability to raise rates amid a stagnating economy.

The key area 215.00–216.00 will become the arena for a decisive battle in the coming days. Holding above 215.00 will preserve the bulls' chances of testing 216.00 and 217.50. The fundamental backdrop still supports the pair, and any pullback will likely be used to enter long positions. Investors should closely monitor Bailey's speeches and tomorrow's UK GDP data — these two factors will determine the pair's short-term dynamics.

see also our today's reviews:

- GBP/AUD: amid stagflation risks in Britain and hawkish RBA stance

- GBP/AUD: dynamics for 15.04.2026

The main reason for this financial outcome was a sharp decline in the price of Ethereum, which had a direct negative impact on the company's assets. However, despite the negative trend in financials, Bitmine is actively increasing its footprint in the Ethereum market. According to the latest data, the company's share of total ETH volume has already reached 4 percent. At the same time, the company is demonstrating steady revenue growth. Bitmine's revenue rose to $11 million, and this increase is almost entirely driven by activity in Ethereum staking.

Bitmine's strategy, aimed at increasing its share in Ethereum and actively using staking instruments, allows the company to partially offset losses from the asset's price decline. Staking, as the process of earning passive income from holding cryptocurrency, is becoming an increasingly significant source of profit for the company. This indicates a long-term strategy by Bitmine to diversify revenue streams and minimize risks associated with market volatility.

Notably, the growth in staking revenue is occurring against the backdrop of an overall decline in the price of Ethereum, which underscores the effectiveness of this business model. This shows that Bitmine is demonstrating an ability to adapt to changing market conditions by leveraging new opportunities to generate profit.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $74,600 level, which would open a direct path to $76,600, and from there the market would be within reach of $78,400. The most distant target is the high near $80,100, a breach of which would signal attempts to restore a bull market. In the event of a drop, I expect buyers at $73,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400. The furthest downside target would be the $69,800 area.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear hold above $2,410 would open a direct path to $2,499. The most distant target is the high near $2,585, a breach of which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In the event of a fall, I expect buyers at $2,308. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,244. The furthest downside target would be the $2,162 area.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Trader caution is fully justified, given the contradictory situation. On the one hand, United States actions are escalatory. Yesterday was the first full day of the blockade of Iranian ports, involving 12 US warships and dozens of aircraft. According to CENTCOM, over the past 24 hours no vessel has been able to break through the blockade from Iranian ports. It is claimed that the US military has already intercepted six vessels that were sailing out of Iranian ports, though Iran insists that its oil supertanker nevertheless managed to bypass the American blockade.

Against this background, Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened China that it will no longer be able to buy Iranian oil. It should be noted here that roughly 90 percent of Iran's crude oil exports went to China. For China itself, Iranian oil accounts for approximately 13 to 15 percent of total imports.

That is one side of the coin. On the other side are certain signs of possible de-escalation. First and foremost, Iran's restraint must be noted, as it is refraining, for now, from strikes on US forces and other targets in the Persian Gulf. Although, just several days ago, Tehran representatives warned that any attempt to blockade the country's ports would "lead to retaliatory actions, including possible attacks on US Navy ships." As we see, so far that has not happened, even though the blockade began yesterday.

De-escalatory signals are also voiced by US leaders. For example, yesterday, Vice President J. D. Vance said that all objectives of the military operation against Iran have been achieved, and now it is possible to move to conclude this conflict. He also noted that the talks in Islamabad produced big progress but that the ball is now in Tehran's court. Vance hinted at a resumption of the negotiation process in the near term.

Intriguing, but at the same time contradictory, statements were made by Donald Trump. Responding to a Fox News question about whether the war with Iran is over, he said that he considered it very close to conclusion. At the same time, the head of the White House noted that he had not considered extending the ceasefire with Iran because, most likely, there would be no need. In this context, Trump said that the next two days will be significant and remarkable, hinting at an impending resumption of talks with Iran. A little later Vance clarified that the president is offering Iran a normalization of economic relations within the framework of a big agreement.

According to CNN sources, Trump tasked J. D. Vance, who leads the negotiating delegation, with finding a diplomatic way out of the war, despite the failure of the Islamabad talks.

Thus, EUR/USD traders are forced to make trading decisions against a contradictory geopolitical backdrop. On the one hand, the United States has indeed blockaded Iranian seaports, thereby threatening the negotiation process. On the other hand, senior US officials are signaling a resumption of talks and a near end to the conflict.

Inflation reports are also providing a contradictory picture. For example, the headline producer price index in March accelerated substantially, whereas core PPI remained at the previous month's year-on-year level and, in monthly terms, even slowed to 0.1%. Meanwhile, the headline consumer price index in March accelerated to 3.3% after two months at 2.4%. Core CPI showed a more modest rise, increasing to 2.6% from the prior 2.5%.

In other words, headline inflation is pulling the index up solely because of volatile components, primarily energy, whereas real, sustained price growth in the rest of the economy remains subdued. This situation brings us back to the United States-Iran talks because, if the war continues, energy inflation will eventually seep into core inflation through logistics and production costs.

Therefore, the world has frozen awaiting the outcome of the geopolitical plot. The financial world is no exception. The currency market is not immune. The upward impulse in EUR/USD has faded, yet sellers are reluctant to open large positions in favor of the greenback. Given the high degree of uncertainty, it is sensible to maintain a wait-and-see stance on the pair. After all, if the United States and Iran return to the negotiating table, EUR/USD buyers will again try to secure the pair within the 18th figure. But if events develop along an escalation scenario, the safe-haven dollar will once more attract stronger demand, putting pressure on EUR/USD. The intrigue remains, and therefore buying and selling the pair are equally risky.

The test of the 158.86 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, important economic data is expected, including the Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index. In addition, speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Michael S. Barr and Michelle Bowman are scheduled. From their statements, market participants hope to gain further insight into the central bank's views on the current economic situation and future monetary policy direction amid the military conflict in the Middle East. Their comments may provide clues about potential Federal Reserve decisions, including interest rate changes, which directly affect market expectations and the dynamics of financial assets. Any signals indicating changes in Fed policy could significantly impact the direction of the currency market.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.05 (green line on the chart), with a target at 159.45 (thicker green line). Around 159.45, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today can be expected with strong economic data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.79 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 159.05 and 159.45 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break of the 158.79 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.39, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.05 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 158.79 and 158.39 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3556 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. At the time of writing, the pair had declined by about 10 points, and the signal was still playing out.

The British pound showed a slight downward correction during the European trading session. The absence of new significant macroeconomic reports from the UK, which could have provided reasons for further trend movement, contributed to this correction. Traders, lacking new data to form new positions, preferred to act cautiously, leading to a modest sell-off of the pound.

In the second half of the day, attention should be given to the Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index reports. Speeches by Michael S. Barr and Michelle Bowman are also scheduled. These releases and statements may influence market sentiment by providing insights into the state of the economy and potential intentions of the Federal Reserve. The Empire Manufacturing Index, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflects business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector. The NAHB Housing Market Index, released by the National Association of Home Builders, is another key economic indicator. Strong or weak readings may signal the condition of the US economy.

Speeches by FOMC members Michael S. Barr and Michelle Bowman will also be analyzed for insights into the central bank's views on the current economic situation and monetary policy outlook.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3578 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3605 (thicker green line). Around 1.3605, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Pound growth today can be expected within the bullish trend.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3529 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.3556 and 1.3578 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break of the 1.3556 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3529, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound will return today if US data is strong.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3578 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3556 and 1.3529 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1785 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, at the time of writing, the pair has not yet experienced a significant decline.

Data on the growth of industrial production in the Eurozone for February also failed to support EUR/USD. This factor, which would normally act as a catalyst for the euro's growth, went largely unnoticed amid geopolitical uncertainty. Investors, focused on potential risks related to the US-Iran conflict, ignored the positive statistical data, showing a clear risk-averse bias. On the other hand, although European industry showed signs of recovery, it failed to reverse the negative trend. The weak growth that was recorded only highlighted the fragility of the region's economic situation.

The second half of the day is expected to be active in financial markets, as traders will closely examine the release of important macroeconomic data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. A key indicator of the health of the US industrial sector will be the Empire Manufacturing Index report. Any deviation from expectations is likely to have a significant impact on investor sentiment and market volatility. At the same time, attention will also be focused on the NAHB Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders. Positive housing data may strengthen the dollar, while negative signals could raise concerns among market participants.

Additionally, speeches by two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members—Michael S. Barr and Michelle Bowman—are scheduled for the second half of the day.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1802 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1841. At 1.1841, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after very weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1785 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1802 and 1.1841 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.1785 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1742, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair will return today if US data is strong.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1802 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1785 and 1.1742 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Demand for risk assets quickly declined as traders began to realize that the conflict between the United States and Iran has not been resolved, and all statements remain just statements for now, while the US continues to build up military forces in the Persian Gulf. This news had a strong impact on financial markets, triggering a wave of uncertainty and speculation. Traders, concerned about a possible escalation of geopolitical tensions, began to reassess their positions, favoring safer assets.

The second half of the day promises to be eventful in financial markets, as traders will closely monitor the release of key macroeconomic reports and speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve. An important indicator of the state of US industry will be the Empire Manufacturing Index. This indicator, reflecting business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector, may provide insight into trends in the US economy. Any deviation from forecasts is expected to have a noticeable impact on investor sentiment and financial asset dynamics.

At the same time, attention will be focused on the NAHB Housing Market Index. The dynamics of this index are important for assessing the condition of the construction sector and related industries, which in turn affects the overall economic outlook. Strong housing market data could support the US dollar.

In addition, speeches by two members of the Federal Open Market Committee—Michael S. Barr and Michelle Bowman—will take place in the second half of the day. Statements by Fed officials always attract increased attention, as they may contain hints about future monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate prospects amid the US-Iran conflict.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1800 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1825 and 1.1850;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1770 may lead to a decline toward 1.1735 and 1.1680;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3560 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3585 and 1.3615;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3545 may lead to a decline toward 1.3510 and 1.3480;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.13 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.40 and 159.84;
• Selling on a breakout below 158.80 may lead to a sell-off toward 158.57 and 158.25;

Mean Reversion Strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1805 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1775 and a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3576 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3540 and a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7157 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7135 and a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3779 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3756 and a return to this level;

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The NZD/USD pair is struggling to build on its recent strong gains and is fluctuating within a narrow range just above the 0.5900 level. Nevertheless, spot prices remain close to yesterday's high and are poised for further growth.

The US dollar halted its decline after reaching its lowest level since early March on Tuesday, amid uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, which is negatively affecting the NZD/USD pair.

Iran's ambassador to the UN described the US-imposed blockade, which came into effect on Monday, as a serious violation of Tehran's sovereignty, potentially undermining an already fragile ceasefire. Moreover, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has pledged retaliatory actions, keeping geopolitical risks elevated and thereby supporting the dollar.

Meanwhile, investors continue to hope that opportunities for a diplomatic resolution remain open, given the high likelihood of renewed peace talks between the United States and Iran. US Vice President J.D. Vance expressed cautious optimism, noting that discussions are ongoing and that Washington is aiming for a broader agreement focused on integrating and reshaping economic relations with Iran. This, along with weakening expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, is limiting the dollar's recovery efforts and creating favorable conditions for NZD/USD bulls.

Data released on Tuesday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March rose less than expected, easing concerns about inflationary pressure from the surge in energy prices caused by the conflict and softening hawkish expectations. As a result, declining US Treasury yields and a generally positive risk sentiment are undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the NZD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the pair has broken above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in an attempt to consolidate above the round level of 0.5900. If the pair holds above these levels, the path of least resistance will be upward. The Relative Strength Index has also moved into positive territory, favoring the bulls. However, as oscillators remain mixed, caution is still warranted when opening new positions.

The GBP/JPY pair has been showing a positive trend for eight consecutive days, trading above the round level of 215.00, close to the highs of July 2008.

Despite hopes for the resumption of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, investors remain cautious due to economic issues arising from instability in the Strait of Hormuz. Given that Japan heavily depends on oil imports from the Middle East, a blockade of Iranian ports by the United States could further reduce supplies through this strategically important waterway. This factor heightens concerns that the Japanese economy may face serious challenges in the near future, which in turn puts pressure on the Japanese yen and supports the GBP/JPY currency pair.

On the other hand, the British pound is supported by expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England. Markets are currently pricing in a high probability of at least one—and possibly two—interest rate hikes this year, as rising energy prices due to the conflict have increased inflation forecasts. This further strengthens GBP/JPY. However, growing expectations of a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its April meeting, along with concerns about potential interventions, are preventing bears from aggressively selling the yen, thereby limiting the pair's movement.

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has approached the overbought zone. This indicates a likelihood of short-term consolidation or a moderate pullback before traders begin opening positions again in line with the recently established upward trend. Market participants are awaiting a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, which is expected to provide new momentum today, as well as ahead of the release of UK economic data on Thursday. However, the positive fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective decline will most likely be viewed as a buying opportunity.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies today, noting that the yen posted the strongest gains against the euro.

The wave situation on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. Recent news about a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new "bullish" wave. Now the picture looks like the beginning of a new bullish trend. Over the weekend, geopolitics turned negative again, as negotiations in Islamabad failed; however, the ceasefire is still in effect, and talks may resume this week. This information continues to support the bulls.

On Tuesday, the news background in Europe was absent, aside from a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who did not provide anything important to traders. In the United States, ADP and PPI reports were released, which also had little impact on traders' sentiment and intraday actions. The Producer Price Index in March came in at +0.5%, much lower than the expected +1.1%. Thus, US producers did not raise prices as quickly amid rising energy costs as the market had expected. Indirectly, this is a negative factor for the dollar; however, we know that inflation in the US rose to 3.3% in March, and this indicator is currently more important than the PPI. The ADP report showed 39,000 new jobs for the week, but it is not considered important by traders. First, this figure covers only one week, which is too short a period for conclusions. Second, traders continue to place more importance on the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is released once a month. Overall, US reports failed to outweigh the geopolitical backdrop, which has been supporting the bulls for the second week in a row.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1778, allowing traders to expect continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1849. A consolidation below 1.1778 will favor the US dollar and some decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. The bulls have managed to exit the descending trend channel, opening additional prospects for them. There are currently no emerging divergences.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 778 long positions and 8,826 short positions. Over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 201,000, while short positions amount to 208,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, major players continue to look with strong interest toward the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war shows no sign of ending. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. The dollar may once again benefit from this situation.

News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Industrial production change (09:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (19:30 UTC).

On April 15, the economic calendar contains two entries that currently do not generate much interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday is likely to be very weak or absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today upon a rebound from 1.1830 or a close below 1.1770 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1696. I recommended buying upon a close above 1.1770 with a target of 1.1830. These trades can remain open.

Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation has shifted to "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous peak (and continues forming), while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had provided bears with almost complete dominance in the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop began to shift in a more favorable direction, giving bulls confidence. For several weeks, the pound traded sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465, but this week it managed to break out of that range.

The news background on Tuesday was quite weak. The only notable event was a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. However, like Christine Lagarde, the head of the British regulator did not report anything important. Traders were hoping for hints about the Bank of England's decision at the next monetary policy meeting, but did not receive any. Thus, nothing significant happened in the world on Tuesday. However, last night Donald Trump simply stated that the war in the Middle East is over. Traders received no details, as the American president did not consider it necessary to provide them. Most likely, this refers to the fact that US strikes on Iran will cease, as "all objectives of the military operation have been achieved." US Vice President J.D. Vance stated this week that negotiations with Tehran could resume in the near future, and the chances of signing an agreement are quite high. Thus, it appears that the situation in the Middle East is moving toward a ceasefire. If a ceasefire can be achieved, it will provide a good basis for a gradual decline in energy prices, something the whole world is currently hoping for. Meanwhile, the US dollar began to experience serious difficulties as soon as the war in the Middle East subsided.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair secured above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, the bulls finally moved into an offensive. Consolidation above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.3540 allows for expectations of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% at 1.3664. The CCI indicator has formed a "bearish" divergence, which may allow the dollar to slightly improve its position.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions decreased by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively: 47,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have been actively increasing sales and reducing purchases, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction first began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only reason for the growth of the US currency.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (18:00 UTC).

On April 15, the economic calendar contains one entry that can be considered relatively important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be felt in the evening.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3604–1.3620 level with a target of 1.3526–1.3539. Buying was possible upon a close above the 1.3437–1.3465 level with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3604–1.3620. The first target has been reached. Positions may remain open with the second target.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

Risks in the Strait of Hormuz have weakened the recent trend of US dollar selling, which is limiting upside in the commodity. Hopes for Iranian diplomacy and lower forecasts for Fed rate hikes are restraining the dollar's rebound.

Gold (XAU/USD) has pulled back to the round level of $4,800.

Against the backdrop of persistent uncertainty about reaching a durable agreement between the US and Iran and turbulence around the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar has halted its decline, putting pressure on gold prices. Washington's tightening of sanctions and the maritime blockade are being seen by Tehran as a serious encroachment on sovereignty, and Iran's UN envoy's statement only underlined the scale of the confrontation. Additional tension stems from statements by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) about readiness to respond, which keeps geopolitical risks elevated and at the same time boosts demand for the US dollar as a reserve safe?haven asset, reducing appetite for gold.

Nevertheless, market participants still expect a diplomatic window with Iran to remain open. A lower probability of further Fed tightening also caps the dollar's upside and creates a supportive backdrop for the non-yielding precious metal, limiting the depth of the correction and encouraging caution toward aggressive short positions in gold.

In recent public remarks, US Vice President JD Vance expressed guarded optimism, saying Washington is interested in striking a broader "grand bargain" that would restructure Iran's economic integration into the global system.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres noted a high likelihood of renewed talks between the US and Iran, fueling hopes of an extended ceasefire and eased tensions. Those expectations, together with diplomatic progress, have contributed to dollar weakness over the past two weeks and helped gold remain above $4,800 per ounce.

Macroeconomic data published on Tuesday showed the US Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated to 4.0% year-on-year in March from 3.4% a month earlier. On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.5%, while the core measure excluding food and energy increased 3.8% year-on-year. The readings came in below market forecasts, easing fears of a large inflationary impulse from rising energy prices and tempering hawkish expectations for further Fed action. As a result, falling US Treasury yields limit the dollar's upside and support the likelihood of buyers stepping in on gold dips to add to long positions.

Technically, XAU/USD is trying to establish a bullish bias: the RSI has moved into positive territory, while the MACD remains negative. A close above the 50-day SMA would hand control to the bulls. If $4,800 does not hold, the nearest support is the convergence of the 9- and 14-day EMAs just above the round $4,700 level.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor's company Strategy invested another $1 billion in Bitcoin. Although all investments in "digital gold" are currently loss?making, the company continues to pour all available cash into BTC. In our view, Strategy has become hostage to Bitcoin. Just imagine that the company has put tens of billions of dollars into Bitcoin, effectively making it the core of its investment strategy. Now, if Strategy starts selling "digital gold," it would crash the price, since the company holds roughly 800,000 coins on its balance sheet, making it one of the industry's key players. If Strategy stops buying, a bearish trend could continue, and losses would deepen. In effect, Strategy is trying to create momentum for Bitcoin and convince the market that a rally is inevitable. Time will tell whether this idea comes true. The deal was financed by selling preferred shares.

As we can see, Strategy's approach hasn't helped Bitcoin much so far. Despite data on ETF inflows, Bitcoin shows no appetite to start a new uptrend. That means inflows are too small or concurrent outflows are too large. Either way, we still see no solid reasons to expect an uptrend from current levels.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full bearish trend with corrective rallies against it. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like a final stop. From current POI areas, only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily TF — around $79,300–$81,200 — stands out. On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin has swept liquidity, but that alone is insufficient to open shorts; bearish patterns are needed. Although sometimes a liquidity sweep is enough to trigger a serious move.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily TF, a downtrend is still in progress, with corrective moves against it. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. After it formed, Ether fell about 55% (roughly $2,500). In the near term, Ethereum may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction ends sooner or later. On the 4-hour TF, Ethereum has worked through the recent FVGs fairly well, but price action remains weak and corrective. Bitcoin and Ethereum have swept liquidity from the March 17 highs. A decline could begin in the near future.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

At the start of the year, inflation was expected to gradually fall to 1.5%, but the war changed everything; the question now is whether it could rise to 2% or even higher under pressure from the rapid jump in energy prices. No one knows the answer yet, and forecasts remain unreliable until there is a mechanism to restore global oil and gas supplies to normal flows.

By early April, expectations for a BOJ rate increase had firmed, and the weaker yen supported those expectations — the question is how those expectations have shifted. If before the Gulf conflict they were around 1.5%, most analysts now see a terminal rate of about 2.0%. But the BOJ is unlikely to react solely to an approaching energy shock: as Mizuho argues, one must weigh inflation dynamics against energy's impact on growth and corporate profitability.

The yen remains the asset for selling: over the week, the speculative net short position rose by $1.6 billion to -$7.3 billion. However, the implied price is turning down under the influence of attempts to restart the peace process in the Middle East, as dollar demand eases.

Were it not for the clear threat of currency intervention, the yen would likely have weakened much more amid the Gulf conflict. That threat is keeping USD/JPY from decisively breaking 160. Still, the trend is such that if a peace process is not launched, a rise in USD/JPY to 162 and above becomes more likely despite the intervention risk. Rising USD/JPY in the current environment can only be halted by the removal of the physical supply-risk threat to Japan's economy, which in turn requires a resolution in the Gulf.

If, conversely, the war were to end soon with an agreement adhered to by all parties, the yen would likely move down toward the 156.00/50 area, but for now that scenario remains hypothetical.

The data indicates that the elevated unemployment is driven mainly by weak hiring rather than layoffs, which indirectly points to a broader economic slowdown: employers are reluctant to expand amid high uncertainty. Strong hourly wage growth — up from 3.9% to 4.7% year?on?year — is feeding already elevated inflation expectations.

Overall, there appears to be little momentum on Canada's labor market. No momentum, no reaction; however, hours worked also increased, so there is no immediate threat of a GDP growth slowdown. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada can neglect for a while potential slowdown signals and remains focused on inflation, which is likely to continue rising. Therefore, the regulator may refrain from taking action until the picture becomes clearer. From the loonie's standpoint, the current situation supports a pause and offers no clear driver for either appreciation or depreciation.

In a snap parliamentary election in Canada, the ruling Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, won a majority in the House of Commons. Because Carney previously led a minority government and was constrained in implementing economic policy, he can now pursue a more consistent policy, particularly in relations with the US — a positive factor for the Canadian dollar. The most succinct comment accompanying Carney's victory is simple: Trump lost.

All in all, the number of factors weighing on the CAD has decreased, especially if the peace process in the Middle East advances.

The net short position on CAD increased by $1.7 billion over the reporting week — the worst result among major currencies — reaching -$4.0 billion. The calculated price is moving decisively higher.

A week ago, we suggested that a decline to the 1.3730/50 support was unlikely and would only occur if a peace process in the Gulf began. The first round of talks was unsuccessful, but it appears both the US and Iran are interested in ending hostilities, which raises hopes for growing optimism. If that trend is confirmed, we expect further USD/CAD weakness, with support at 1.3590/3610 as a possible target. If peace efforts fail, an upside reversal toward the 1.3940/60 area becomes quite likely — although that scenario is currently less probable. Movement toward 1.4139 is not on the table for now.