On the lower time frame (upper chart), an impulsive wave sequence is still developing and may belong to wave E of the higher time frame. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how far it rises in the meantime. The presumed wave 5 of E has either been completed or is close to completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. The news backdrop and a sharp shift in market sentiment have driven a strong rise in the US currency, but the number of new reasons for further dollar appreciation is gradually declining.

The British Pound Is Receiving Support and Pulling the Euro Higher

EUR/USD rose by 10–20 basis points on Tuesday, which is far too little to suggest that the euro has gained the upper hand, even over a one-week period. The euro remains extremely weak, while the market continues to focus on further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening and ignore all other factors. Even the unrest in France is no longer being taken into account, as this factor, although potentially dangerous, is expected to have only a short-term impact. At least, that is how the situation appears at present.

Meanwhile, the British pound is attracting demand. The UK released a favorable unemployment report today, significantly improving market sentiment ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. The pound gained approximately 75 pips today, but its direction will ultimately be determined on Wednesday, when the September inflation report is released.

In fact, many traders recognize that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy even if inflation rises only slightly in September or remains unchanged. In other words, whatever the Consumer Price Index reading tomorrow, the need for an interest rate hike will remain. However, the higher inflation rises in September, the further it could increase by the end of the year.

Andrew Bailey and his colleagues believe that inflation will peak at 4%. The Bank of England's chief economist, Huw Pill, has also suggested that there could be two or three rounds of monetary policy tightening. Therefore, tighter policy remains the expected course of action in any case. The market is finally beginning to look beyond the dollar and consider other factors. It would be helpful if it also took the prospect of ECB monetary policy tightening into account. In my view, the euro and the pound could continue rising this week.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within a global corrective trend structure labeled A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears complete and could have reached its endpoint. In my view, this is a favorable time not only to consider buying the euro but also to anticipate the development of a full upward trend segment. According to the higher time frame, the pair could rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 level. The failed attempt to break above 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (lower chart, higher time frame), also indicates that the market may be preparing for a move higher.

The higher time frame shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse and may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will now begin to form.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in the market structure.
2. If the market situation is unclear, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be complete certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

EUR/USD had been declining for 25 full days, apart from a few brief pauses. During this period, the euro lost 530 points, and its prolonged decline began more than a month ago as the market prepared for an FOMC rate hike. Only toward the end of last week did the bulls manage to launch a noticeable counterattack. These bullish moves occurred on days when the dollar could easily have continued rising. It is worth recalling that US inflation in September exceeded forecasts, core inflation also came in above market expectations, and the Producer Price Index showed a much sharper acceleration than the market had anticipated. All three inflation indicators are rising more strongly and rapidly than the Federal Reserve expects. The dollar could therefore have risen in line with a straightforward relationship: higher inflation increases the likelihood of tighter Fed policy.

However, over the past two weeks, no FOMC member has expressed support for monetary policy tightening in October. On Friday, Fed President Kevin Warsh delivered a speech but did not forecast or announce further policy tightening either. In other words, Fed policymakers have given the market no indication that higher-than-expected inflation should lead to more hawkish action by the regulator. In my view, the bears have been on the offensive for too long, and the dollar has risen too sharply relative to the amount of rate hikes planned by the Fed. Throughout this period, traders have simply ignored the ECB's and the Bank of England's previous and expected rate hikes.

At present, it cannot be said that the euro's decline has been halted or ended. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price could react to it by generating a sell signal. The bears have gone too far, and stopping them now will not be easy. Although the market has consistently ignored the entire body of information supporting the euro for more than a month, this does not mean that the euro will now rise continuously. First, Imbalance 24 needs to be invalidated, and the bulls must form their own bullish patterns. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, but the bulls continue to demonstrate weakness and a lack of momentum.

In September, the FOMC not only raised interest rates but also signaled its readiness to continue tightening monetary policy. This was enough to trigger a large-scale bearish advance. However, even after the Fed's September tightening and a possible further move in December, it is difficult to argue that the euro has received no positive news during this period.

Overall, the news backdrop continues to favor the bulls, in my view. Although the Fed has adopted a more hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. The European Union also faces problems, but that is precisely the point: problems exist everywhere, yet only the euro is falling. Both central banks are tightening monetary policy, but only the dollar is rising. Geopolitical tensions affect both the United States and the European Union, yet the market sees only the dollar.

The current chart structure clearly indicates that bearish momentum remains intact. The only active pattern at present is Imbalance 24, which could be played out in the near future, as a corrective pullback has begun. The bulls' only current opportunity lies in a liquidity sweep below the 1.1066 low. However, opening long positions requires more than a liquidity sweep alone.

The economic news backdrop on Tuesday was relatively weak and attracted little attention from traders. Economic sentiment indices for Germany and the European Union came in below expectations, while the market largely ignored the US housing construction data. This is nothing new. Over the past couple of months, economic releases have been overshadowed by broader events and trends.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to launch an advance in 2026. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies, which led to a substantial decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, no significant factors supporting the US currency are apparent, despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical developments, which supported demand for the US currency during much of the first half of 2026, are no longer doing so.

US and EU Economic Calendar

• European Union — Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (16:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for October 21 contains one event that could be of considerable interest. The economic news backdrop may affect market sentiment on Wednesday, particularly during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has been interrupted by a year-long corrective pause. The news backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears eight months ago, but the trend itself, which has been in place for four years, cannot be considered canceled or complete. The bulls could resume their advance before the end of the year, but their only realistic opportunity at present is the 1.1066 low established in June last year.

The bears have received a new sell signal within Imbalance 19. At present, existing short positions should be kept open. A new sell signal could form within Imbalance 24. Since a further corrective pullback remains possible, it may be advisable to take partial profits on short positions.

GBP/USD began rising after sweeping liquidity below the latest bearish swing and has since gained more than 200 points. Over the past three days, the pound has posted a strong advance, which could invalidate Imbalance 30, as it has failed to produce a convincing reaction. This would be the first step toward the formation of a bullish trend. In addition, the first bullish imbalance in a long time formed yesterday. Going forward, it will act as a support zone and provide buy signals. It has not yet been marked on the chart because it coincides with Imbalance 30. Nevertheless, it is present.

Finally, there is another important point. The reversal in favor of the pound did not occur after strong UK data or weak US data. It followed three strong US inflation reports that favored the dollar and could easily have supported the bears once again. Thus, we have once again seen that traders are responding to the news backdrop in a rather unusual way. A report that is positive for the dollar can trigger either a rise or a decline. A complete absence of news can prompt bearish attacks even when there is no clear reason for them. Key reversals occur not after major events, but after liquidity sweeps.

It should be noted that traders expect the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy two or three times, while the Federal Reserve is expected to do so only once or, at most, twice. The dot plot also points to one policy tightening, while the latest FOMC minutes confirmed that most central bank policymakers expect just one 0.25-percentage-point rate hike. Of course, the outlook for 2027 remains uncertain, but this is the current consensus forecast, weighted by market expectations. As a result, the Bank of England could ultimately raise rates more aggressively than the Fed over the coming months, which would clearly not support further gains in the US currency.

If the Fed had not decided to raise interest rates in September and signaled its readiness to continue tightening monetary policy, a decline in the US currency would have been expected a month ago. That remains the expectation now. The pair has reversed in favor of the pound, and the remaining step is for new bullish patterns to form, allowing bulls to open long positions. In the long term, the outlook for the pound remains bullish.

Do the bears have any further prospects? In my view, not many. Over the past month and a half to two months, the bears seem to have achieved the impossible, pushing the dollar to levels that are exceptionally high by recent standards. It is worth remembering that the market has had reasons to buy the dollar recently, but there have also been reasons for the British currency to rise, which traders simply overlooked. A reversal of the previous move may now begin, and this movement could be much more justified by the underlying conditions than the preceding decline.

On Tuesday, the economic news backdrop supported the bulls, as the UK unemployment rate fell from 4.9% to 4.7%. The other UK reports had little significance for traders after the unemployment data. However, the pound could easily come under selling pressure tomorrow if the Consumer Price Index comes in below expectations. Traders expect headline inflation of at least 3.4% year-on-year and core inflation of 2.7%. The Bank of England will probably begin raising rates at its next meeting regardless, but the lower inflation is, the fewer rounds of monetary policy tightening the UK regulator is likely to undertake.

Overall, the news backdrop remains such that a decline in the US currency is the only long-term outcome that can reasonably be expected. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this outlook. Geopolitical tensions prompted the market to reconsider the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most acute phase. The future course of FOMC monetary policy remains uncertain, and the market continues to anticipate only tighter policy, which is the main reason for the bears' optimism. However, traders are still failing to account for the prospect of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England, as reflected in several recent speeches by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members. Inflation is rising in the UK, as it is worldwide, leaving the Bank of England with little choice but to raise rates as well.

US and UK Economic Calendar

• United Kingdom — Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC).

On October 21, the economic calendar contains only one event, but it is an important one. The economic news backdrop could affect market sentiment on Wednesday, particularly during the first half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Bears have controlled the market in recent weeks, but the broader trading range is clearly visible on the daily chart. A liquidity sweep below the swing low formed on May 1 triggered a new decline within the horizontal range, while a sell signal inside Inverted Imbalance 27 allowed the decline to continue.

However, liquidity was swept below the June lows, giving the bulls a good chance to regain control. The bearish imbalance could be fully invalidated as early as today, marking the first step toward the formation of a bullish trend. Therefore, traders are advised to wait for bullish patterns and signals that should help the pound return to its August highs.

France and Germany bond yield spread dynamics

To sustain its current debt load of roughly 120% of GDP, France would need a feat: shrink the budget deficit to around 2% of GDP, a level unseen since the 1970s. Protesters, meanwhile, are demanding relief from the high cost of living. That implies more spending, and the budget bill presented to the National Assembly is already under strain. Investors are selling European assets, which, in theory, should pressure EUR/USD. In practice, much of that decline in the euro has already occurred in August-October, and the very powerful bond market is starting to push back on the US dollar.

MUFG argues that if Democrats take control of Congress in early November, that would be an important factor weakening the greenback. Likewise, fading interest in AI, which had fueled US economic sentiment and channeled capital into US stocks, would remove a structural tailwind for the dollar. A burst S&P 500 bubble would therefore hit the greenback first.

Bear in mind that EUR/USD bears will not get Fed support before December. Futures markets do not price in a federal funds rate hike in October, and the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for late in the year.

German economic sentiment dynamics

If Democrats control Congress, they would likely block parts of Donald Trump's agenda, including his efforts to drive energy prices down. Yet neither his pledge not to strike Iran before the primaries nor the diesel deal with Russia has prevented Brent from climbing above $110/bbl. That trend pressures the euro as the currency of a net energy importer. The ZEW survey's first dip in sentiment since April only adds to that burden.

Thus, the US dollar is gradually playing through the trump cards it still has, looking for fresh growth drivers while worrying about a popping AI bubble. But France's fiscal and political crisis prevents the euro from mounting a full counterattack. In such an environment, it makes sense to watch the old, reliable guide — oil. It will likely help determine EUR/USD's next directional move.

Technically, the daily chart shows an ongoing battle for fair value at 1.1215. A fresh local high above 1.1235 would be a reason to buy, while a break below 1.1195 would open the way for short positions.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn spoke today to the Finnish parliament and said spreads on French bonds versus German bunds have "somewhat" widened due to both common and country-specific factors. He noted many other countries have felt similar pressure. In his view sovereign yields are determined by greater private sector demand for capital, including large investments by companies in AI, and by rising government deficits that push up the cost of capital. "All euroarea countries must get their public deficits under control," he stressed, adding that this applies equally to France and Finland.

The situation inside France remains tense. Protests against the rising cost of living that drew hundreds of thousands over the weekend escalated into violence, vandalism, and looting. Authorities have tightened security and promised help for businesses, but the government lacks room to maneuver. The country carries a huge debt load and one of the largest budget deficits in the euro area, so simply increasing spending to calm people is not an option.

The roots of the problem run deeper. Many countries in the region, including France, were unable to cut deficits quickly after the 2009 financial crisis and then added more debt to support populations during the pandemic. A prolonged period of high inflation then raised debt servicing costs. Voters suffering from high prices are hostile both to spending cuts and to tax increases. French governments have fallen one after another, unable to pass budgets with cuts in a divided and polarized parliament, and borrowing costs in France are now higher than in Italy.

The bond sell-off has revived memories of the sovereign debt crisis of 2009–2015. Paper from other highly indebted states, including Italy, Greece, and Belgium, came under pressure, suggesting investors are pricing a contagion risk—a loss of confidence in one country dragging down others' bond prices. The government's proposed 2027 budget broadly follows EU fiscal rules, but there is a risk deficit targets will not be met if the government collapses again. Recall the plan envisages deficit reduction measures of about €43 billion, and unions have already called for a strike for November 5.

Political uncertainty is compounded by the presidential election in April next year. Emmanuel Macron cannot run for a second term, and two leading candidates promise a decisive break with his centrist course. Marine Le Pen has pledged steep deficit cuts, but her party lacks national government experience, and economists find her plans unconvincing. She has called on the ECB to intervene to help lower France's borrowing costs. Jean-Luc Melenchon has proposed addressing the debt by cancelling part of the balances on the books of the Bank of France and the ECB.

The key question is how the ECB will act. To fight a bond sell-off, it has two buyback mechanisms, and attention focuses on a newer, more flexible protection tool created in 2022 to counter unjustified and disorderly market moves. But ECB President Christine Lagarde and Banque de France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau have recently said there is no need to take action for now. Given market tensions over France's fiscal issues, the regulator is unlikely to step in to help.

That is the problem for the euro. When spreads widen and the central bank is not ready to act as an insurer, investors demand a risk premium and cut positions in the single currency. The euro has already fallen on similar French events; in early October, EUR/USD hit its May 2025 low amid widening spreads, and Monday's Asian session sell-off was triggered by the French protests.

I lean toward the view that while the French budget and street protests remain unresolved and the ECB gives no signal of bond market support, the euro will have little reason for a confident rebound. I would risk saying any new spread widening or fresh street unrest in France will push the currency back under pressure, and a noticeable improvement is likely only after a clear signal from Paris or from Berlin and Brussels.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Buyers now need to think about reclaiming 1.1235. Only that would allow targeting a test of 1.1265. From there one can reach 1.1310, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On the downside, I expect serious buying only around 1.1195. If nobody shows up there, it would be sensible to wait for a new low near 1.1155 or to open longs from 1.1115.

The Asia-Pacific region failed to follow Wall Street's local bounce: South Korea's Kospi plunged by 4.2%, and shares of key AI memory supplier SK Hynix fell to spring lows. Although the US semiconductor sector snapped its eight-day losing streak, the S&P 500's advance remained extremely narrow — roughly 65% of its constituents finished the session lower. Investors remain on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Tesla, Meta, IBM, and Netflix, which will test whether multibillion-dollar AI investments are delivering returns.

Meanwhile, the bond market stays under pressure: the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to about 5.13% as inflation risks remained elevated and demand for safe havens softened. In Europe, French government yields climbed amid unrest and a record budget deficit, adding further strain to the region. With InstaForex, traders can monitor and trade major equity indices around these reports. Follow the link for more details.

Brent holds near 5-month highs amid Hormuz uncertainty

Brent crude continues trading near $111/bbl, close to its five-month peak. Market participants are weighing the risk of renewed attacks and escalation around the Strait of Hormuz against evidence that Gulf exporters are keeping flows broadly intact. Elevated energy prices stoke inflation worries and limit central banks' room to ease policy quickly.

Against this backdrop, gold is consolidating around $4,145/oz, lacking strong directional momentum due to high real US interest rates. Follow the link for more details.

iPhone Duo frenzy lifts Apple market cap above $5 trillion amid supply squeeze

Apple's first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo (starting at $2,000), triggered unprecedented pre-order demand. The initial allocation sold out within 30 minutes in both the US and China. Official delivery dates slipped into early 2027, and resellers listed devices for as much as $5,200. Wall Street cheered the consumer frenzy — Apple shares pushed toward record highs, with the company's market cap topping the $5.03 trillion mark.

However, industry analysts warn that this frenzy reflects supply constraints more than insatiable demand. Nikkei Asia and other sources report that production lines initially were only able to ship a few hundred units per day due to technical issues with the foldable hinge. As a result, 2026 output forecasts have already been cut to about 6 million units, suggesting empty virtual shelves are a function of logistics limits rather than Apple's ability to meet global demand. Follow the link for more details.

The specified levels were not tested during the first half of the day.

US housing market data could trigger a more pronounced increase in USD/JPY volatility. Building permits and housing starts will show how the construction sector is responding to high borrowing costs, while pending home sales will provide an indication of future sales activity. Mortgage rates are linked to US Treasury yields, which, in turn, affect the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. However, forecasts remain subdued. Building permits are expected to reach 1.400 million, compared with 1.403 million previously, while housing starts are forecast at 1.310 million, up from 1.275 million. Pending home sales are expected to decline by 0.5% after rising by 0.3%. Weak housing data could push Treasury yields lower and give the yen some temporary relief, strengthening its position against the dollar. Strong figures, however, would support the US currency.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, USD/JPY can be bought when the price reaches the entry level around 158.19 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 158.40 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.40, the long position will be closed and a short position opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pair could rise today, although the upward potential appears limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 158.07 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could rise toward the opposite levels of 158.19 and 158.40.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, USD/JPY can be sold after the price breaks below the 158.07 level (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 157.85, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 158.19 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could decline toward the opposite levels of 158.07 and 157.85.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.

The test of the 1.3340 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right time to enter a long position on the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points.

The UK labor market data supported the pound, with the unemployment rate providing the main argument for buyers. In August, unemployment fell to 4.7%, although analysts had expected it to remain at 4.9%, unchanged from the previous month. This indicator is one of the key factors considered by the Bank of England, as low unemployment allows the regulator to focus on fighting inflation without risking significant damage to employment. Wage data presented a mixed picture. The main measure of average wage growth slowed to 3.7%, while the number of unemployment benefit claims increased by 30,300 in September.

The evening session will begin with US housing market data. The market will receive figures on building permits, housing starts, and pending home sales. These indicators help assess how high mortgage rates are affecting demand and construction activity. The forecasts are cautious. Building permits are expected to reach 1.400 million, compared with 1.403 million previously. Housing starts are projected at 1.310 million, up from 1.275 million, while pending home sales are expected to decline by 0.5% after rising by 0.3%. In addition, the evening session may be more eventful because of a speech by Megan Greene, who is among the advocates of tighter monetary policy. In July, she voted alongside Hugh Pill and Catherine Mann for an immediate rate hike, so the market will look for confirmation of this position. If her remarks are hawkish, the pound could receive support regardless of the US data.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the pound can be bought when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3352 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3385 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3385, the long position will be closed and a short position opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pound may rise today if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3335 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3352 and 1.3385.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the pound can be sold after the price breaks below the 1.3335 level (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3305, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level. Strong downward pressure on the pound could return if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3352 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3335 and 1.3305.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.

The test of the 1.1225 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right time to enter a short position on the euro. As a result, the pair rose and then fell toward the target level of 1.1211.

The single currency lost support following a series of unfavorable economic releases. The current account balance for August came in at €8.7 billion, compared with the expected €25.2 billion, while business sentiment also disappointed. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 28.1 in October, while the eurozone's index declined to 18.5. However, the acceleration in German producer prices is particularly concerning. In September, producer prices rose by 1.9% month-on-month, compared with a forecast of 1.5% and a previous reading of 1.1%. On an annual basis, they increased by 6.7%, up from 4.6%. Rising industrial costs are adding to consumer inflationary pressures, while the ECB must assess these developments against the backdrop of a weakening economy.

The US economic calendar for the second half of the day is focused entirely on the housing market, and this data could affect the dollar's exchange rate and, consequently, EUR/USD. Traders will soon receive figures on building permits and housing starts for September. In my view, if the housing data disappoint, the dollar will have a reason to correct lower, allowing EUR/USD to rise. If the figures exceed expectations, however, the US currency will recover some of its lost ground.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1217 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1234. At 1.1234, the plan is to close the position and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may rise today if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1203 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1217 and 1.1234.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1203 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1186, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1217 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1203 and 1.1186.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.

On the lower timeframe (top chart), an impulsive wave sequence is still developing and may belong to wave E of the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how much further it rises. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or close to completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have driven a strong rally in the US dollar, but the number of new reasons for further dollar appreciation is gradually diminishing.

Unrest in France Halts Euro Buyers

EUR/USD fell by 25 basis points on Monday, a very small decline. At present, the baseline scenario remains a new upward trend segment. There are no clear factors that would prevent this scenario from unfolding, although unexpected events can occur at any time and dramatically change market conditions.

On the first trading day of the week, market participants spent more time discussing developments than trading. Many fear that the riots and protests in France could spread to other European Union countries, as several of them face similar budgetary problems. It is worth recalling that the French initially launched mass strikes and protests, which gradually escalated into widespread rioting and looting, in response to Paris's plans to raise taxes and cut public spending, particularly on education and social programs. In simple terms, under the proposed budget, French citizens would pay more while receiving less government assistance. Naturally, these prospects were unacceptable to most French residents, triggering the unrest.

However, in this assessment, the euro should not react significantly to such events. Similar incidents occur periodically in many countries around the world. For example, another series of "No Kings" protests against Donald Trump is taking place in the United States. The market can, of course, continue buying the dollar for almost any reason, and the crisis in France could serve as another justification. Nevertheless, a continued decline in the euro and further appreciation of the dollar are not expected. The US dollar already faces several challenges, and Donald Trump is unlikely to welcome a stronger dollar, which makes US exports less competitive. The wave structure pointing to a prolonged euro rally is expected to continue unfolding. Something more significant than widespread unrest in France would be needed to trigger another sustained rise in the dollar.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the global corrective trend structure A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. At this stage, conditions appear favorable not only for buying the euro but also for anticipating a sustained upward trend segment. According to the higher timeframe, the pair could rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 level. The failed attempt to break below 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (bottom chart, higher timeframe), also suggests that the market may be ready to move higher.

The higher timeframe shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, which may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to form.

Key Principles of This Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no clear understanding of current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty about the direction of price movements. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

On Tuesday, EUR/USD is holding above the psychologically important 1.1200 level. However, further gains in the euro may be limited, as widespread unrest in France is raising concerns about the country's public finances.

According to the BBC on Monday, French authorities imposed nighttime curfews in certain districts of Paris and other cities following the spread of widespread unrest and looting across the country. French Prime Minister S?bastien Lecornu stated that the government was "fully committed to restoring public order," while not ruling out "localized and partial" movement restrictions in the most affected areas. At the same time, he stressed that a full curfew covering entire cities was not being considered.

The measures taken so far have provided no significant support for the single currency. Market participants need to monitor developments related to political and financial risks in France closely. Any further escalation of tensions could put additional pressure on EUR/USD.

The yield spread between French government bonds and German government bonds (Bunds), which are considered a safe-haven asset, has widened to 147 basis points. This is the highest level since the European sovereign debt crisis of 2011–2012. By comparison, the spread stood at approximately 110 basis points at the end of September.

Meanwhile, in the United States, Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh expressed confidence in the resilience of the US economy last week but did not clarify whether further interest rate increases would be necessary or when they might occur. According to the CME FedWatch tool, futures markets expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting. The probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at 82.8%.

Geopolitical risks are also contributing to cautious market sentiment. In particular, tensions increased following President Zelenskyy's statement that the United States was pressuring Ukraine, rather than Russia, to make concessions. Taken together, these factors create an even less favorable external environment for the euro.

Warsh's speech, delivered in his capacity as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, received a score of 5.6 out of 10 on the FXS Speechtracker scale. This is slightly below his historical average of 6.1, indicating a relatively restrained tone in his comments despite his positive assessment of structural growth and increased investment activity. His remark that market participants are "too traumatized by the global financial crisis" points to investors' continued tendency to avoid risk.

Warsh also noted an increase in investment supported by current economic policies but refrained from forecasting the Fed's decisions in October and December. As a result, participants in the dollar market must rely primarily on incoming macroeconomic data and potential key policy decisions that the Fed may make later this year.

Warsh's emphasis on the role of artificial intelligence in shaping demand, as well as on managing tail risks—unlikely but potentially highly destructive events—gives his remarks a long-term focus and highlights his concern for financial stability. In turn, this somewhat tempers the short-term hawkish signals in his speech.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index remained elevated at 127.51 points. This indicates that, despite the somewhat more moderate assessment of Warsh's speech on the FXS Speechtracker scale, the overall direction of the US central bank's monetary policy remains clearly hawkish. For the foreign exchange market, the combination of a high Fed Sentiment Index reading and restrained rhetoric from central bank officials suggests that the dollar continues to receive support from expectations that the Fed will closely monitor inflation and financial stability, even in the absence of clear guidance on monetary policy for 2026.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains under pressure on the daily chart. This is indicated by negative oscillator readings and the fact that the pair is trading below all major moving averages. The psychologically important 1.1200 level provides support. Below it lie the 1.1150 level and the October low. A break below these levels would accelerate the decline toward 1.1080.

The nearest resistance levels are the 14-day EMA and the 20-day SMA, both located near 1.1270. A break above this area would allow the bulls to challenge previous highs.

However, the composition of growth raises concerns. Industrial production contracted by 0.2% over the same three-month period. Mining and quarrying output fell by 0.6%, while manufacturing recorded marginal growth of 0.1%. In other words, the economy is expanding on the back of the services sector, while manufacturing, particularly energy-intensive and raw-material-based industries, remains stagnant.

The employment data released this week did not come as a surprise but confirmed the existing trend. According to preliminary estimates, the number of employees fell by 26,000 in August, extending a two-year downward trend. The situation has not become any easier for the Bank of England. A weakening labor market reduces the risk of second-round inflationary effects through wages, which is a positive factor. However, a further slowdown in employment amid the energy shock strengthens the argument that the economy may not withstand additional monetary policy tightening, which could be an even greater concern.

Speaking at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Bangkok, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said there was still little evidence of second-round inflationary effects and that these effects remained "very subdued." He added that the economy had proved "more resilient than we expected." Megan Greene, by contrast, adopted a considerably more hawkish stance. In her view, economic growth is stronger than expected and the labor market remains resilient, suggesting that the Bank of England is not applying sufficient pressure to bring inflation down.

Market consensus on interest rates appears to have emerged: the Bank of England is expected to raise its policy rate to 4% on November 5. The pound's modest appreciation last week was most likely a reaction to this shift in rate expectations, and the anticipated hike has now been largely priced in.

The key release this week is the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on October 21. The forecast points to an increase to 3.5%, up from 3.1% in August, which would mark a ten-month high. Fuel prices are expected to be the main driver. If inflation comes in at 3.5% or higher, the market will become more confident that a rate hike will take place in November.

The net short position in GBP increased by 0.8 billion over the reporting week to -8.91 billion, while the estimated price lost momentum.

In the previous report, it was suggested that the GBP/USD correction would encounter resistance in the 1.3295–1.3310 level. The pound is currently attempting to consolidate above this area, reflecting market expectations ahead of tomorrow's inflation release. If inflation is at least in line with forecasts, the market may be preparing to revise its expectations for the future path of interest rates.

GBP/USD has traded within a relatively narrow range throughout 2026. If inflation does not disappoint, the pound could receive additional support and extend its corrective advance toward the midpoint of the range at 1.3437. A stronger move would require a more powerful catalyst, which is currently lacking. The likelihood of a return to the 1.3137 support level has decreased.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening this year and another next year. This factor continues to provide the strongest support for the US dollar, while other factors have yet to become relevant. The bears are gaining momentum, which is also helping the dollar strengthen.

There was no significant news on Monday, so the pair showed no notable movements throughout the day. The economic calendar is relatively light this week, with the most interesting reports scheduled for release in the United Kingdom. The euro and the dollar will have little new data to support their movements. Meanwhile, traders have already begun shifting their attention to the upcoming ECB and Fed meetings, which could support the bulls. It is worth recalling that the ECB has already tightened monetary policy twice and will most likely do so a third and fourth time. The Fed is currently expected to tighten monetary policy twice, with the second move not due until December. Therefore, given the euro's decline over the past month and the ECB's more hawkish approach to interest rates, the euro could continue the recovery that began last week. Today, the market may focus on the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, but these are not the most important indicators and are unlikely to influence the ECB's stance ahead of its penultimate meeting of the year.

On the 4-hour chart, following the formation of a fifth bullish divergence, the pair reversed in favor of the euro once again and rose toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1221. Consolidation above this level would allow for a rise toward 1.1325. Consolidation below 1.1221 would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No developing divergences are evident today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 20,091 Long positions and opened 18,150 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 360,000. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more often than it is bought. This is attributable to the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's determination to bring inflation down. The market continues to believe that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any available means.

Overall, major market participants remain strongly interested in the euro over the long term. Events of various kinds around the world—which have been plentiful in recent years—undoubtedly influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unforeseen events. As a result, traders can only adapt to the changing environment as it unfolds.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• European Union – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

On October 20, the economic calendar contains four releases, all of medium importance. The impact of economic data on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Buying the pair is possible if it closes above 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. Selling is possible if the pair closes below 1.1220, with a target in the 1.1081–1.1086 support level.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

The market situation has turned bullish. But for how long? The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the new upward wave has also broken above the previous high. Thus, the bulls have temporarily taken the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Perhaps the time has now come for a bullish counterattack.

There was no significant news on Monday, but an important UK unemployment report was released this morning. The data disappointed the bears, who may have been preparing to launch a new attack, encouraged by the prevailing momentum. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.7%, although most traders had expected it to remain at 4.9%. At the same time, the number of unemployment benefit claims increased by 30,000 in September, exceeding forecasts. However, the August unemployment rate is clearly more important, which is why the pound gained ground from the start of the day. Tomorrow, the pound faces an even more important test in the form of September inflation data. If the Consumer Price Index rises to 3.4%, as expected, the Bank of England will move significantly closer to its first round of monetary policy tightening in several years. It is worth recalling that traders have not priced in Bank of England monetary policy tightening in recent weeks, so this factor could potentially provide substantial support for the bulls. The market has already priced in an FOMC rate hike, and more than one. Until recently, the Bank of England and the pound had largely been overlooked by traders.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD returned to the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3159. Consolidation above this level would allow traders to anticipate further gains toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3409. The technical picture on the hourly chart is currently more convincing, so the hourly chart is the one to focus on. No new developing divergences are evident in any of the indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. Speculators reduced their Long positions by 1,074 and increased their Short positions by 8,279. The gap between Long and Short positions is now approximately 44,000 versus 151,000. The bears are once again strengthening their advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was beyond question, but the situation is now less clear-cut because the fundamental backdrop has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound remains unconvincing, but much will depend in the near term on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had barely begun. There is no guarantee that they will resume anytime soon.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Change in Average Earnings (06:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Change in the Number of Unemployment Benefit Claims (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

On October 20, the economic calendar contains five notable releases, with UK economic data standing out. Economic data may influence market sentiment on Tuesday, particularly during the first half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible following a rebound from 1.3368 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3272. Buying is possible if the pair closes above 1.3272, with a target of 1.3368. This target has been reached. New long positions may be considered if the pair closes above 1.3368, with targets at 1.3426 and 1.3473.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Skeptics argue that the AI bubble will burst sooner or later, as happened with prior technology booms. The outsized rise in tech stocks has left bears convinced that the S&P 500's leaders are speculative. There's some truth to that. When about 70% of expected profits are concentrated in one sector, the overall market inevitably becomes hostage to developments in that sector.

Tech vs. rest — earnings dynamics

Morgan Stanley, however, believes that the heavy concentration won't last. The bank views November as an opportune month for some rotation into equities — either a modest bleed as money shifts from tech into other sectors or a fresh, robust leg higher for the S&P 500.

It's not just Morgan Stanley that's cautiously optimistic. Seasonality typically favors the last three months of the year, fundamentals have improved in some corners, Treasury yields have eased from recent highs, the US economy remains relatively resilient, and expectations for corporate earnings are biased toward the positive — all factors that can support the S&P 500.

P/E ratio & S&P 500 dynamics

Unfortunately for bulls, the seasonal tailwind isn't proving decisive yet. Wells Fargo calls this earnings season one of the weakest on record. After the first week, actual results have missed Street estimates by around 0.4%, versus an average beat of roughly 4% for similar periods since 2012. Only 48% of companies have topped expectations, compared with a historical 61%.

Investors watch corporate reports with a mix of caution and hope. They're searching for signs that cost trajectories are improving — in prior cycles, such signals often preceded a broader market downturn. The logic is simple: the less companies invest, the smaller the profits for those selling into that investment cycle.

Baird research shows it typically takes six to 12 months between the S&P 500 peaking and a visible slowdown in capex. That implies the current earnings season is unlikely to settle the debate over AI beneficiaries' durability — though it can certainly set the next direction for the broad index.

As for technicals, the S&P 500 has formed an inside bar on the daily chart, signaling indecision. A practical plan is to place pending orders around the bar's range: a buy stop near the high (~7,730) and a sell stop near the low (~7,865) to play either breakout.

According to CryptoQuant, aggregate Bitcoin reserves on all exchanges remain low at about 2,680,000 BTC. However, since the start of October, a modest increase above roughly 2,660,000 BTC has been recorded. This matters because coins on exchanges represent potential supply. The more it sits there, the easier it is for holders to sell, and a rise in reserves against a weak price is therefore a cautious signal.

Also, worth noting is the split between spot and perpetual futures demand over the past 30 days. The picture is this: spot demand recovery is stalling while futures demand is leading. In simple terms, spot means buying the actual coins, and that demand is usually steadier because buyers tend to hold long-term. Futures demand is a leveraged bet on price movement and can unwind quickly if the market moves against positions. When a rally is driven by futures rather than by real purchases, it tends to be fragile.

Compare accumulation and selling by holder cohorts over 60 days. The 100–1,000 BTC cohort continues to accumulate, but at a level below the late-September peak and with only a modest recent recovery. The 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort is reducing reserves more slowly and is approaching a neutral balance. The largest whales—balances above 10,000 BTC—continue to cut holdings, so accumulation is not broad-based. Notably, this large cohort usually sets the tone, and until it reverses, it is premature to call a sustained trend.

I believe a genuine recovery requires three signals at once: spot demand must return to positive, exchange reserves must resume declining, and whales must switch from selling to accumulation. Until that happens, I lean toward Bitcoin trading inside the recent $80,000–$85,000 corridor with a risk of another lower bound test. Additional pressure comes from continued ETF outflows, which amounted to about $229m last week. If spot and whales reverse simultaneously, a move toward the upper corridor would be quite plausible.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Technical picture for Bitcoin. Buyers are currently targeting a reclaim of $82,800, which would open a direct path to $85,400 and then toward $87,100; breaking $87,100 would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $80,900. A return of the trading instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,800. The most distant downside target would be around $76,900.

Technical picture for Ethereum. A clear hold above $2,417 would open a direct path to $2,508. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,600; breaking that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,339. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,274. The most distant downside target would be around $2,231.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

The on-the-ground picture is mixed. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose by 1.6% on Monday, ending an eight-day losing streak — the longest since 2008 — and helping the Nasdaq 100 claw back some ground after its worst week since the tariff shocks of April 2025. The rebound was narrow: roughly 65% of S&P 500 names still fell, meaning that gains were concentrated in a handful of tech names rather than reflecting a broad risk-on rotation.

The bond market also remained under pressure. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to about 5.13%, up 7 basis points during the US session, as demand for safe havens softened. French bonds weakened after weekend riots over rising living costs escalated into violence and looting; Paris has announced tighter security and business support measures, but high public debt and one of the eurozone's largest budget deficits limit fiscal firepower.

A key test is coming. Netflix reports today, followed by Tesla, Meta, and IBM tomorrow. Those results will show whether there is room for the rally to continue in the face of heavy AI spending and high rates. Note that elevated yields make financing more expensive, and oil keeps inflation worries alive — so don't be surprised if investors stay risk-averse.

As for commodities, gold was largely flat near $4,145/oz, while Brent held close to its five-month high around $111/bbl. Traders balanced the risk of fresh Houthi/Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz against indications that Gulf flows remain broadly intact.

To sum up, markets are waiting on big tech earnings and are not ready to take large directional bets. In my view, until Tesla, Meta, and IBM report, expect continued nervous trading in tech; any disappointing read on AI capex could knock indices lower again. Gold is unlikely to get a clear bid in this environment, and oil will remain hostage to developments in Hormuz.

Regarding S&P 500 technicals, today's immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,718. Doing so would signal upside momentum and open a move toward $7,737. Holding $7,756 would further strengthen the bulls' position. If the price falls amid weaker risk appetite, buyers should defend around $7,698. A break below that level would likely drive the index down to $7,679 and open the path to $7,656.

Strategy bought 267 BTC for $22 million at an average price of $82,900. Its balance now holds 848,517 BTC worth roughly $69.8 billion, up from 848,000 BTC on October 4. The two-week increase is modest — about 500 coins. The company's USD reserve stands at $5.3 billion. At the same time, Strategy repurchased $193 million of its own preferred STRC shares and raised its preferred-share buyback program from $2 billion to $3 billion. Notably, part of the funds are being used not to buy Bitcoin but to reduce obligations to preferred-shareholders.

Bitmine, led by Tom Lee, bought 12,535 ETH for about $30 million. The company now holds 6,041,481 ETH worth roughly $14.3 billion — about 4.9% of total Ether supply. Around 5,067,309 ETH (84% of its holdings) are staked, and cash and liquid securities total $582 million. However, the company's unrealized loss is about $5.57 billion. Lee previously said Bitmine would stop buying once it accumulated 5% of Ether supply; roughly 63,500 ETH remain to reach that cap. At the current pace of purchases, that is about five weeks, in my estimate.

These purchases matter for sentiment but not for the supply-demand balance. By comparison, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $229 million last week — nearly ten times Strategy's Bitcoin purchase. As institutional funds withdraw, corporate buyers can only soften the decline. I believe that if oil and inflation expectations remain under pressure, Bitcoin is more likely to re-test the lower end of its range, and Ether will have a harder time while its main corporate buyer, Bitmine, approaches the end of its buying program.

Bitcoin — The price trades in a narrow range between 81,600 and 81,900, and the plan centers on two mirror directions: a full breakout and a rebound scenario. For buy positions, I consider a confirmed breakout above 81,900, targeting 82,500, where I take profit and may reverse into a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Alternatively, if a drop below 81,600 fails to hold and price returns, buy the rebound, targeting 81,900 first and then 82,500.

The sell scenario is symmetric. A confirmed break below 81,600 opens a short targeting 81,000, provided the moving average is above price and Awesome is below zero. If an upside breakout above 81,900 fails and price returns below the level, short the rebound, targeting 81,600 first, then 81,000.

Ether — The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with support at 2,389 and 2,371 and resistance at 2,400 and 2,422. For buy positions, consider a breakout above 2,400 targeting 2,422, and a buy on a rebound from 2,389 after a false breakdown, with an intermediate target at 2,400 and a final target at 2,422. For sell positions, a confirmed break below 2,389 targets 2,371, and a short on a rebound from 2,400 after an unconfirmed upside breakout targets first 2,389, then 2,371. Both indicators are used as filters to weed out false moves rather than as standalone reasons to enter early — take action only after price actually confirms the specified levels.

The main headwind remains oil, which sits near a five-month high. Iran said it "has no choice" but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. lawmakers opposed Donald Trump's proposed diesel-supply deal with Russia. Expensive oil fuels inflation fears, making further Federal Reserve tightening more likely.

The U.S. Treasury market compounded pressure. Yields held on to the prior session's rise after a rebound in tech stocks reduced demand for bonds as a safe haven, pushing yields higher. For gold — which pays no interest — higher yields and more expensive borrowing remain a headwind.

Traders are now trying to guess the Fed's next move in the fight against inflation. Fed chair Kevin Warsh's Friday remarks, delivered before the blackout period, did not dispel expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at next week's meeting. As a result, the probability of a 25-bp hike at that meeting fell below 20% (down from almost two-thirds at the end of last month). Traders still see about a 90% chance of one more hike before year-end.

Recall that in October gold mostly held above $4,100 and consolidated after a more than 6% drop in September. It did that even amid a stronger dollar and higher bond yields. Since the US–Iran conflict began in late February, the metal is down roughly a fifth and remains negative year-to-date due to high inflation and yields.

This means gold is currently caught between two forces. Expensive oil and bets on further Fed hikes keep it from rallying, while its hold around $4,100 in October suggests the market isn't ready to force a sharp sell-off. I lean toward gold trading in a narrow range around current levels in the coming days; a meaningful advance is likely only if oil and yields fall substantially.

As for the technical picture of gold, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,192 to target $4,249, above which a breakout will be difficult. The further upside target is $4,304. On the downside, bears will target $4,124; if they succeed, a range breakdown would seriously damage bull positions and push gold down to $4,062, with the prospect of extending to $4,047.

Traders are now weighing the risk of fresh Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz against evidence that Persian Gulf flows are recovering. Iran's first vice-president Mohammad-Reza Aref said on Monday the country "has no choice" but to establish control over the strait for its security. He added Iran could ensure safe passage for friendly countries but blamed the US for the current situation and said the US "must pay a price."

Despite recent tensions around the strait, exports from the Gulf have accelerated. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said flows have recovered to roughly 80% of pre-war levels, although product shipments remain constrained. Iraq is among the producers ramping up exports — its oil minister said October shipments exceeded 3.4 million barrels per day and approached pre-war levels after deep discounts versus regional benchmarks.

At the same time, the Trump administration is permitting sales of sanctioned tankers so they can legally carry oil. Wright said the step is needed to expand shipping capacity because the US–Iran conflict is overloading flows and pushing up freight costs. Recall the proposed diesel-supply deal involving Russia remains controversial in the US, and US lawmakers have pushed back.

New attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure keep geopolitical risk elevated even as Gulf flows recover. Many analysts agree the balance of risk for oil prices is clearly to the upside: renewed assaults on shipping increase the chance of another supply disruption and further price gains.

All told, oil remains caught between two forces. On one side, restoring Gulf flows and rising Iraqi exports prevent the market from confidently breaking to new highs; on the other, Tehran's comments about controlling Hormuz and attacks on vessels prevent prices from plunging. I lean toward Brent holding near $110 in coming days, while any fresh flare-up in the strait could push it to a new May high.

As for the current technical picture, buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at $105. This will allow us to aim for $ 109, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be the $113 area. If oil prices decline, bears will try to seize $101; if they succeed, a range break would damage bull positions and push oil down to $98, with the prospect of extending to $95.

The four-hour (H4) chart for Crude Oil (#CL) displays a bullish price trend and strong buying momentum. Currently trading at 103.53, the price has experienced an accelerated surge, breaking through successive technical resistance levels while continuing its advance within a series of overlapping ascending channels.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is clearly moving within a broad, primary ascending channel (in blue), which reflects the overall positive trend. Overlapping this is a secondary, steeper ascending channel (in pink/red). Notably, the price is currently positioned near the upper boundary of the pink sub-channel and within the upper half of the primary channel—an indication that buyers are in control and that there is strong upward momentum in the market.

Interaction with Pivot Levels: The price rallied upward after forming a local low above the first weekly support level (Weekly S1) at 93.65. It then decisively broke through the weekly pivot point at 97.77. Continuing its upward push, oil moved past the psychological 100.00 level and is now steadily heading toward the first weekly resistance level (Weekly R1), located at 105.94. Pivotal Support and Resistance Levels

Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 104.40 – 105.94 (near-term intraday high and the first weekly resistance level, Weekly R1).

Second Resistance: 109.15 – 110.06 (the second weekly resistance level, Weekly R2, and the upper boundary of the channels).

Pivotal Resistance: 110.75 and above.

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 101.20 – 102.80 (intraday retest zones within the channel).

Second Support: 97.77 (the weekly pivot point and a pivotal support level).

Main Support: 93.65 (the first weekly support level, Weekly S1).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive trajectory is the most likely outcome for the intraday and medium-term outlook, provided the price remains above the weekly pivot point of 97.77 and the near-term support level of 101.20.

Recommendation: It is advisable to enter long positions during minor downward corrections—specifically when the price retests the 101.20 – 102.80 zone—or upon stabilization above 103.50.

Technical Targets: The first target is the first weekly resistance level at 105.94, with potential for further extension toward the second weekly resistance level at 110.06. Bearish Corrective Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if the price breaks below the weekly pivot level of 97.77 and exits the sub-channel range to the downside.

Confirmation Condition: A 4-hour candle must close below the 97.77 level.

Technical Targets: This would open the door for a deeper bearish correction, targeting a retest of the first weekly support level at 93.65.

Risk Management:

Trading during periods of strong upward movement and high momentum requires strict adherence to capital management rules. Risk per trade should be capped at a maximum of 2%, and stop-loss orders must be utilized to protect gains against sudden reversals.

Daily Chart.

Analysis of Today's Candle:

Today's candle reflects the strength of the buyers and their complete control over the trading action. It appears as a bullish candle, moving upward with the aim of testing the upper boundaries of the sub-channel and breaking through the first monthly resistance level (Monthly R1) at 102.65. This strong performance confirms that the price has successfully maintained its bullish momentum following a rebound from the midline of the ascending channel and by stabilizing above the monthly pivot point at 94.39.

Price Action Outlook:

Bullish Scenario (Primary): This remains highly probable, provided that today's candle—and those that follow—close above the 102.65 level and the monthly pivot at 94.39. In this case, the price would target subsequent resistance levels, moving toward 106.10, followed by the second monthly resistance level at 114.97.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): This would require a sudden negative reversal and the emergence of significant selling pressure, pushing the price to close back below the current support levels—specifically falling below 102.65. Such a move could open the door for a downward correction toward support zones near 94.39.

A price test at 158.28 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the 158.49 target area.

The weak US NAHB index did not become a problem for the dollar against the yen. Builder confidence fell 3 points to 29, current sales lost 2 points to 33, six-month expectations dropped 5 points to 32, and buyer traffic fell 5 points to 18. All this indicates that high mortgage costs are cooling demand, but for USD/JPY the key drivers remain US inflation, Federal Reserve policy and bond yields — the housing index is too secondary to move the pair materially.

Today the yen's key theme was Japan's fiscal policy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reiterated she will not rely on special deficit-covering bonds to finance a cut in the consumption tax on food. She said the government's position is unchanged and clarified her remarks after some publications distorted their meaning. The day before, she rejected allegations that her policies caused yen weakness or higher yields. The market is watching because the tax reduction would cost roughly £5 trillion a year; the question is how it will be financed, since new borrowing would further increase an already heavy debt load. I think Takaichi's words provide some partial support to the yen, but the main reference for USD/JPY remains the US currency.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario 1: Buy USD/JPY today near 158.25 (green line on the chart), targeting 158.49 (thicker green line). I will exit long positions at 158.49 and open short positions there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement. It is best to return to buying on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 158.00 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal higher. Expect moves to 158.25 and 158.49.

Sell scenarios

Scenario 1: Sell USD/JPY only after a break below 158.00 (red line). That should lead to a rapid decline. Sellers' key target is 157.68, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Sellers can return at any time — you need some hint from the central bank. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.

Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 158.25 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal down. Expect declines to 158.00 and 157.68.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

A price test at 1.3320 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell about 25 pips.

US housing-market data (NAHB) was weak, but I wouldn't attribute the dollar's brief move at the time solely to that print—the timing was likely coincidental. The NAHB index fell 3 points to 29 in October. Current sales slipped 2 points to 33, six-month sales expectations fell 5 points to 32, and buyer traffic dropped 5 points to 18. Those details indicate expensive mortgages are weighing on demand. NAHB is a secondary series and usually has limited impact on FX, so the pound's drop against the dollar that day was temporary.

This morning the UK calendar focuses on labour-market data: initial jobless claims, the unemployment rate, and average earnings. Claims show how many people are seeking benefits, the unemployment rate shows the overall employment situation, and wages indicate how fast incomes are rising. I view average earnings as the key release because wages feed directly into inflation: higher pay boosts spending and enables companies to pass costs into prices, especially in services. The Bank of England's rate is 3.75%, and the Bank watches wage growth closely for signs of a wage-price spiral. Recent data showed unemployment at 4.9%, and private-sector regular pay (ex bonuses) rose 2.8% — the lowest in several years. A disappointment across the trio could quickly push the pound lower; strong prints would give GBP/USD room to rise. I expect an immediate reaction at publication that will help set the tone for the rest of the European session.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario 1: Buy the pound near 1.3340 (green line), targeting 1.3368 (thicker green line). Exit long positions at 1.3368 and consider opening short positions there, targeting a 30–35 pip retracement. Expect pound gains today as a continuation of the trend. Important: before buying, make sure MACD is above zero and just beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.3320 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal higher. Expect moves to 1.3340 and 1.3368.

Sell scenarios

Scenario 1: Sell the pound after a break below 1.3320 (red line). That should lead to a rapid decline. Sellers' target is 1.3293, where I will exit shorts and open longs (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Bad news would restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, make sure MACD is below zero and just beginning to fall.

Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.3340 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines toward 1.3320 and 1.3293.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

A price test at 1.1217 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose only about 10 pips.

The US housing market print was weak, but this hardly explains the dollar's move on the FX market. The NAHB index fell 3 points to 29 in October, and the most notable detail was sellers' behavior: 43% of builders reported cutting prices — the highest share in years — and discounts and incentives were used by 65% of builders. The average concession has been about 6% for seven consecutive months. When builders are forced to discount so aggressively, it indicates weakening demand. Other components confirm the picture: current sales fell 2 points to 33, six-month expectations dropped 5 points to 32, and buyer traffic declined 5 points to 18. For EUR/USD, this housing data gives no cause to re-rate the pair. The euro remains dependent on dollar sentiment and on internal regional problems, the main one now being in France.

The euro enters the session with a busy calendar. We expect German producer prices, two business-sentiment indices (Germany and the eurozone) and the current-account balance. These releases can either help buyers or bring sellers back into the market, and the market will likely react quickly. Pay close attention to business-sentiment readings: based on survey responses, they show how market professionals view the next six months. Rising sentiment indices would mean easing fears about the economy and would be positive for the single currency. If sentiment worsens, euro pressure will increase because high energy prices weigh on the region's economy.

Producer prices will show how far industrial price increases have advanced, while the current-account balance reveals how resilient foreign demand is for the region. My view is simple: strong data would give EUR/USD a chance to rise, while weak prints would quickly re-pressure the pair.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario 1: Buy the euro today near 1.1237 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1255. I plan to exit at 1.1255 and also sell EUR there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry. Expect euro gains today only after strong data. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.1225 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal higher. Expect moves to 1.1237 and 1.1255.

Sell scenarios

Scenario 1: Plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1225 (red line on the chart). Target 1.1211, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Strong renewed pressure on the pair can return at any time. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.

Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.1237 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.1225 and 1.1211.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Europe first. The main worry for the euro remains France. Protests there triggered large sell-offs in the single currency and the political picture stays tense. Opposition parties refuse to negotiate with Macron's outgoing administration ahead of 2027 elections, and early-October polls showed Le Pen and Melenchon heading to a runoff. For beginners, the key takeaway is simple: as long as political turmoil continues, investors struggle to trust the euro, and it remains vulnerable even when economic prints are good.

The pound is not directly tied to French troubles; it only feels spillovers when the entire European bloc weakens. Also, the Bank of England keeps policy at 3.75%, and this morning's UK labour-market prints will show whether the BoE has reason to delay tightening.

Now the US. Yesterday's NAHB home-builder sentiment index was weak — down 3 points to 29 in October, with buyer traffic at 18. The report's details are worrying: 43% of builders report cutting prices (the highest share in years) and 65% offer discounts or incentives. That implies expensive mortgages are cooling demand. The dollar eased at the time of the release, but that was likely a timing coincidence rather than a structural reaction — NAHB is a secondary series, and markets look primarily at inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and bond yields.

Today's main events will come from Europe and the UK. For the eurozone we'll see German producer prices, ZEW business-sentiment indices for Germany and the eurozone, and the current-account balance. Producer prices show factory-gate inflation and tend to lead consumer inflation; stronger-than-expected PPI would increase conviction that the European Central Bank must stay tight, supporting the euro. Business-sentiment PMIs and ZEW help gauge managers' confidence: improvements indicate the economy is coping with high energy costs; deterioration revives growth worries. The current-account balance reflects foreign demand for the region's goods and services; a surplus supports the euro, while a shrinking surplus weakens it. Together, these releases should set the tone for EUR/USD through the European session.

For the pound, one of the week's most substantive data sets is due. Today's releases are initial jobless claims, the unemployment rate, and average earnings. Earnings will probably be the most important because wages feed directly into inflation. When people earn more, they spend more, and companies tend to pass higher costs into prices, especially in services. If wages rise faster than expected, the BoE will find it harder to ease its stance, and sterling will get support. A weak outcome would weaken the case for keeping policy rates high. Recall that in the last reports unemployment was 4.9% and private-sector regular pay (ex bonuses) grew 2.8% — the lowest in almost six years. We will closely study any deviation from those numbers. I believe strong wages would let GBP/USD extend its rally, while weak labor data would quickly put the pair back under pressure.

Momentum

For the euro, the breakout levels remain unchanged: upside 1.1234, downside 1.1193. Price is currently at 1.1235, just one pip above the upper level, so beginners need to be especially careful. One pip is market noise — it is not a confirmed breakout. I consider long positions only after a decisive close above the level that holds; then targets are 1.1268 and 1.1310. Frankly, without data to support that scenario, it's hard to believe, so I am watching the German releases. The lower level 1.1193 is far away, and a meaningful sell-off would require a strong catalyst — for example, fresh bad news from France or weaker business sentiment. In that case, targets would be 1.1156 and 1.1117.

For the pound, buy setups are above 1.3337, with targets at 1.3368 and 1.3397. Price sits at 1.3334, three pips below the level, so a first touch proves nothing. If wages are strong, a breakout looks plausible, and that is my main morning scenario. I now consider short positions below 1.3303 (previously 1.3307), targeting 1.3273 and 1.3233. That lower scenario requires weak labour-market prints.

Mean Reversion

For the euro, the reversion levels are 1.1245 and 1.1219. The upper one sits 11 pips above the breakout point at 1.1234. If price moves above 1.1234, reaches 1.1245, and then quickly falls back, I would consider selling. If it closes above 1.1245, that is a confirmed breakout, and selling there is not allowed. The lower level 1.1219 lies 15 pips below 1.1234 and 26 pips above the downside breakout point at 1.1193. Here, I look for a situation where price dips briefly below 1.1219, fails to hold, and returns; in that case, longs with a stop under the low of the false breakout are appropriate. If price stays below after the data, the reversion setup has failed.

For the pound, the upper reversion level 1.3350 is 13 pips above the buy breakout at 1.3337. If price breaks 1.3337, reaches 1.3350, and then quickly falls back, I would consider selling. If it closes above 1.3350, that is a confirmed breakout and selling is not allowed. The lower level 1.3314 sits 11 pips above the downside breakout point 1.3303, so it is closer to the current price than the breakout level. I expect a rebound here after the first reaction to the data. If price drops below 1.3314, quickly returns above, and holds, longs with a stop under the probe low are suitable. If it closes below, the reversion failed, and attention shifts to 1.3303.