The observed momentum toward taking profits suggests a sizable portion of these market participants have decided to lock in gains at current levels. This may be driven by various factors: from a desire to hedge short-term risks amid the possibility of renewed conflict in the Middle East to confidence that local price peaks have been reached. A surge in such selling can put downward pressure on price, especially if it occurs alongside weakening buying interest from longer-term investors. And that is precisely the problem: spot market buying continues to decline.

If other market participants — for example, long?term investors, who often have a deeper understanding of fundamentals — begin joining the short-term holders in selling, a substantial Bitcoin sell-off could occur. Much now depends on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East: if tensions escalate, pressure on the crypto market could return quickly.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $82,000, which opens a direct path to $84,000, and then to $85,600. The far target is the high around $87,600; breaking that level would indicate attempts to resume a bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $80,100. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,300, with the far downside target at around $76,300.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,409 opens a direct path to $2,492. The far target is the high near $2,575; breaking that would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $2,347. A fall below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,290, with the far downside target around $2,225.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

Correlation of S&P500 and oil prices

At first glance, it's weird. Rising oil prices push up corporate costs and reduce profits. It accelerates inflation via second-order effects, which forces the Fed to tighten policy, and the economy slows—this is the theory. In practice, S&P 500 corporate earnings are so large that bulls are not worried by higher input costs or higher rates.

Morgan Stanley believes strong corporate earnings will allow US companies to weather the energy crisis storm. In Q1, S&P 500 issuers reported a 6% positive earnings surprise per share, the best result in four years. Estimates for Q2 were raised by 2%, for the end of 2026 by 3%, and for the next 12 months by 4%.

Expected and actual results of S&P 500 companies

Deutsche Bank notes that earnings growth accelerated from 13.4% in Q4 to 24.6% in Q1 — the strongest pace at least since 2022. Back then, hopes around ChatGPT drove blockbuster expectations for tech revenues; now those expectations are being realized.

The stock rally contributes to US economic growth. Consumers feel wealthier and spend more even without wage growth. This is reflected in a fall in the savings rate from an average 6.2% of disposable income over the ten years before the pandemic to the current 3.6% — a worrying sign for Americans if a recession hits. But a downturn may not occur.

Meanwhile, the crowd is eager to buy any sell?off. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents expecting a market decline within the next six months rose to 39.7% — above the historical average of 31%. Historically, when the market has more bears than usual, the broad stock index often gets room to rise.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 formed a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. The average bar has a long upper wick, signaling bull weakness. A drop below 7,170 would allow short positions opened from 7,220 to be increased on the broad index. To return to buying, the index needs to rise above 7,240.

After a shootout between the US and Iran that flared up Middle East tensions and aroused inflation concerns, stock markets retreated from record highs, and the US dollar strengthened. The MSCI Asia Pacific stock index slipped 0.5% from Monday's record close amid speculation that the war with Iran could escalate. Trading was thin because Japan, China, and South Korea were closed for holidays. Earlier, Wall Street indices also eased from their peaks after a rally in oil sent the global benchmark Brent above $115/bbl.

Renewed Middle East tensions threaten to inject fresh volatility into stock markets after a month of gains in risk assets that helped global indices recoup war-related losses and reach record highs, supported by strong earnings from the largest tech firms.

Recent events in the Middle East could materially affect the positive trend. The region remains a key player in global energy markets, and further supply disruptions could trigger larger rises in energy prices. That, in turn, could create renewed inflationary pressure and force central banks to rethink policy plans.

Stock markets could respond to an escalation with immediate declines. Risk-on investors may start withdrawing from more volatile assets and seek shelter in safer instruments such as government bonds or gold. That could prompt a market correction and interrupt the current uptrend.

"Even if the immediate conflict subsides, we expect the effects to be felt for some time," Wells Fargo said yesterday. "It is unlikely that the impact on energy prices, industrial activity and geopolitical risk premia will dissipate quickly."

On Tuesday, hundreds of vessels were reported off Dubai as more ships steered away from the still-empty Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attempts to expand their zone of control. Nevertheless, the US said it had opened passage through the waterway, and CBS reported that two American destroyers transited the Persian Gulf. Tehran has not confirmed those reports.

Meanwhile, the UAE accused Iran of a drone strike that sparked a fire at the port of Fujairah and, for the first time since the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, issued several warnings about potential missile attacks.

In other markets, gold rose modestly to around $4,550/oz as signs emerged that buyers who accumulated on the dip were re-engaging after Monday's 2% decline triggered by the escalation.

During the US session, Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 30-year yield dropping to 5%, the highest level since July.

S&P 500 technicals

The primary task for buyers today is to clear the nearest resistance at 7,233. That would signal upside momentum and open the way for a push to 7,256. Controlling 7,283 would further strengthen bulls' positions. On the downside, if risk appetite wanes, buyers must show up around 7,210. A break below that would quickly drive the instrument back to 7,190 and open the road to 7,174.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Brent crude oil dropped to $113 per barrel after a significant rise of 5.8% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil approached $104. It has been reported that US military forces repelled Iranian attacks, escorting two American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to US Central Command. An oil terminal in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, was attacked. This new escalation of hostilities occurred while the US was trying to clear a path through the waterway for stranded vessels, casting doubt on the four-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, a crucial region for global oil supplies, has once again raised concerns about the stability of energy markets. Attacks on maritime transport and oil-related infrastructure traditionally lead to rising prices for "black gold" due to the risk of supply disruptions. The sharp price increase on Monday reflected this concern among investors, although the subsequent decline may indicate attempts to calm markets and suggest that US military actions ensured safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Let's remember that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route through which a significant portion of global oil shipments passed until February of this year.

The attack on the oil terminal in Fujairah, one of the world's largest oil transshipment ports, adds yet another layer of uncertainty. Such incidents not only directly affect production and export volumes but also heighten geopolitical risks, undermining investor and consumer confidence. The actions of the US to repel Iranian attacks and ensure vessel passage, along with calls for de-escalation, will be crucial for stabilizing the situation in the near future.

All this suggests that the four-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, which many had hoped for, is now at risk. The resumption of hostilities, even on a limited scale, could complicate further dialogue between the parties and the achievement of a peace agreement, leading to another round of rising energy prices.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $106.83. This will allow them to target $113.00, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The furthest target will be around $118.80. In the case of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control of $100.40. If successful, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $92.50, with the prospect of a further decline to $86.67.

Gold prices rose by 0.6%, nearing the mark of $4550 per ounce. US military officials stated that they repelled Iranian attacks, ensuring the passage of two American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. However, tensions heightened again after the UAE reported intercepting cruise missiles launched by the Islamic Republic and accused an Iranian drone of causing a large fire at its Fujairah port.

Against this backdrop, gold prices sharply declined as all this fuels expectations of a new round of interest rate hikes by central banks around the world in the near future. Expectations for rising interest rates typically pressure gold prices.

Yesterday's attacks undermined the ceasefire, which had largely been observed since it took effect on April 8, increasing the risk of inflation and interest rate hikes. Oil prices surged sharply amid these reports, and the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds rose to its highest level since July, as traders raised bets that the Federal Reserve would need to increase borrowing costs to curb inflation.

Traders expect that the US Treasury's announcement regarding borrowing plans for the next three months, along with a busy calendar of economic reports, will provide additional hints on the dynamics of interest rates this week.

Clearly, another round of escalation in the Middle East may trigger another wave of sell-offs in precious metals, so caution is advised even for purchases at current levels.

Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4546. This will allow them to target $4607, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The farthest target will be around $4656. In the event of a decline in gold prices, bears will attempt to take control of $4481. If successful, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4432, with the prospect of a further decline to $4372.

The test of the 156.99 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. However, losses were recorded on the trade, as the pair did not decline.

The Bank of Japan, remaining vigilant, is actively intervening in the currency market; however, the Asian session today has been relatively calm. It appears that everyone is awaiting developments in the Middle East, which could bring a new military conflict between the US and Iran. Yesterday's attacks on a US warship and on UAE territory will clearly not go unanswered. The consequences of such developments could be catastrophic for the Japanese yen, which, after currency interventions, could again face major sell-offs against the US dollar. An open military confrontation between the US and Iran will inevitably increase demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. Additionally, a new clash will have a massive impact on the global economy, leading to another spike in energy prices and rising inflation, which Japan is currently not prepared to endure.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 157.35 (green line on the chart), with a target at 157.79 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 157.79, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.15 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 157.35 and 157.79 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level to 157.15 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.65 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers may return at any moment; all it takes is a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.35 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 157.15 and 156.65 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the price at 1.3557 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying pounds. However, the pair did not see significant growth.

Due to events in the Middle East, pressure on the pound returned. Reports of a supposed attack on an American warship in the Strait of Hormuz and shelling of UAE territory quickly boosted demand for the US dollar. Today, the international community and traders must closely monitor developments and be prepared to react to the ongoing situation.

As for reports, today's morning in the UK will pass without any important macroeconomic releases, leaving the British pound in a state of uncertainty; however, it seems that this does not relieve the pressure observed since yesterday. The main factor influencing the national currency's quotes remains the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The lack of domestic data means the market will remain on standby for further developments in the Middle East. It is possible that investor caution will persist throughout the day until clearer signals about future developments emerge.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy pounds today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3531 (green line on the chart), with a target increase to 1.3560 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3560, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pound growth can only be anticipated if the conflict de-escalates. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3513 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.3531 and 1.3560 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell pounds today after the pair reaches 1.3513 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3485, where I intend to exit my shorts and also immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return if there is negative news from the Middle East. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3531 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3513 and 1.3485 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the price at 1.1690 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Worrisome news from the Middle East rightly raises concerns. Information about a supposed attack on an American warship in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as reports of shelling of UAE territory, cannot fail to cause serious alarm. These events have already put pressure on the euro, potentially escalating tensions. The situation requires a careful approach from all participants. Diplomatic efforts should focus on de-escalation and preventing further exacerbation; however, if this does not happen, the pressure on risk assets will only increase.

Today, there are no important fundamental data from the Eurozone in the first half of the day, so all traders' attention will be on the meeting of the EU finance ministers and the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Special attention will be given to any hints regarding interest rate changes. Against the backdrop of rising inflation, the markets expect the ECB to be forced to return to tightening monetary policy. However, the impending recession in some Eurozone countries may require the central bank to act more cautiously to avoid worsening the economic downturn. Such a dilemma places Lagarde in a difficult position, balancing price stability with financial support for the economy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching the entry point around 1.1695 (green line on the chart) with a target increase to 1.1721. At point 1.1721, I intend to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated after positive news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1677 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.1695 and 1.1721 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1677 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be at 1.1646, where I intend to exit my short positions and also open immediate long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1695 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1677 and 1.1646 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Despite the encouraging rise in the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which might hint at the approaching start of a new bullish market in digital assets, there is a serious threat that could undermine these positive trends at any time. This threat originates not from within the crypto industry, but from external geopolitical factors. The situation in the Middle East, which seemed relatively stable just yesterday, has undergone significant changes. Reports from various American media sources indicate that the US is on the verge of resuming large-scale military actions against Iran.

Such developments carry not only serious humanitarian and political risks but are also bound to have a deep impact on global financial markets. During periods of heightened geopolitical tension, traders typically prefer to shift their assets into safer classes, such as traditional currencies or government bonds. Digital assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, despite their growing popularity and institutional recognition, are still perceived by many as riskier instruments. Consequently, amid a potential military conflict, we could see capital outflow from the cryptocurrency market, leading to a significant correction or even a prolonged bearish trend.

A spike in profit-taking from short-term Bitcoin holders, noted by analytical platforms like Glassnode and Santiment, only adds fuel to the fire. This indicates that some traders who have realized quick profits are ready to exit their positions at the first sign of danger, which could accelerate price declines if negative geopolitical developments arise. Thus, despite the internal positive signals, the short-term future of the cryptocurrency market is strongly in question, determined more by events in the Middle East than by technological or economic factors within the industry itself.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum in anticipation of the continued development of a long-term bullish market, which has not gone away.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $80,140, with a target increase to $81,100. At around $81,100, I intend to exit my purchases and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of $79,600 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $80,100 and $81,100.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $79,600, with a target decline to $78,500. At around $78,500, I intend to exit my sales and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $80,100 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $79,600 and $78,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at the entry point around $2,380, with a target price of $2,402. At around $2,402, I intend to exit my purchases and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $2,360 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $2,380 and $2,402.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,360, with a target decline to $2,330. At around $2,330, I intend to exit my sales and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $2,380 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $2,360 and $2,330.

Yesterday, information surfaced that Iran attacked a US warship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and various sources reported that Tehran is actively shelling the UAE with missiles. It is evident that all of this could escalate into a larger military confrontation at any moment.

Today's trading day promises to be eventful, despite the lack of significant macroeconomic data from the Eurozone in the first half of the day. All market participants will be focused on two key events: the meeting of the EU Finance Ministers and the upcoming speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

These meetings typically serve as platforms for discussing key economic issues, formulating coordinated policy decisions, and shaping future directions for monetary policy. The Finance Ministers' Council, the main body responsible for economic and financial policy in the Eurozone, may consider a wide range of topics, including budget coordination, financial stability, and issues related to the current challenges facing the European economy, such as high energy prices and inflation. Any hints at changes in fiscal policy or new initiatives could significantly impact investor sentiment and the dynamics of currency pairs.

Market participants will pay particular attention to Christine Lagarde's words. Her speeches often contain valuable signals about the ECB's future actions, especially regarding interest rates and other monetary policy tools. In the current economic uncertainty, any deviation from previously stated positions or, conversely, confirmation of a hawkish rhetoric could lead to noticeable volatility in financial markets, particularly in euro pairs. Lagarde is expected to address inflation, economic growth, and the measures being taken to maintain price stability.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the most suitable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout at 1.1700, which may lead to an increase in the euro to the levels of 1.1723 and 1.1749;
• Sell on a breakout at 1.1675, which may lead to a decline in the euro to the levels of 1.1657 and 1.1627;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout at 1.3539, which may lead to an increase in the pound to the levels of 1.3567 and 1.3598;
• Sell on a breakout at 1.3504, which may lead to a decline in the pound to the levels of 1.3481 and 1.3455;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout at 157.40, which may lead to an increase in the dollar to the levels of 157.69 and 157.93;
• Sell on a breakout at 157.05, which may trigger dollar sell-offs towards the levels of 156.73 and 156.33;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1695 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1670 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3537 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3497 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.7161 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.7126 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3636 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3614 on a return to this level;

A few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday. Essentially, we can highlight only the ISM Services sector activity index from the US and the JOLTs report on job openings. Both reports are quite important, but the market may easily ignore them for two reasons. First, it has been ignoring much of the macroeconomic data for the past 2.5 months. Second, the geopolitical factor. The war in the Middle East may reignite this week, and traders will have little focus on economic reports. We do not expect the dollar to show a new trend due to geopolitics, but the upward trend is unlikely to continue if missiles start flying in the Middle East again.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, we can note the speeches of Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, and Philip Lane. However, last week, the Federal Reserve meeting was held on Wednesday, followed by meetings of the European Central Bank and Bank of England on Thursday. We learned that the Fed is not inclined to change monetary policy in 2026, while the ECB and BoE have adopted a wait-and-see position and are not overly concerned about rising inflation, hoping for a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB and the BoE are prepared to raise key rates this summer if there is a pressing need, while the Fed is not. It is unlikely that the ECB representatives' positions have changed in just a few days.

The geopolitical backdrop is beginning to clarify, but unfortunately, not in a direction that everyone would like. Yesterday, hostilities resumed in the Middle East, and we can only hope that the new escalation will be quickly suppressed. However, the odds of such a development are about as likely as signing a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade with a downward bias if more "hopeful" news comes from the Middle East. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3476-1.3489. The correction in the euro continues, while the British pound may come under pressure from geopolitical factors.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued to decline on Monday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. As of now, a full-scale war could restart today, but we do not believe this factor will lead to a new prolonged trend in the US dollar, as seen in February and March. Nonetheless, it should be acknowledged that further growth for the EUR/USD pair will now be difficult. The upward trend on the hourly timeframe remains, as the pair left the sideways channel of 1.3476-1.3587 last week, but has since returned due to geopolitical factors. Therefore, we can expect a lively week ahead, with plenty of geopolitical news and significant macroeconomic reports. Remember, the first week of each month is when the US releases labor market and unemployment data. On May 15, Kevin Warsh will become the new Federal Reserve chair, and he is expected to adopt a "dovish" stance. However, if US inflation continues to rise, it will be extremely difficult for Warsh and Miran to implement Trump's agenda.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, only one sell signal was generated on Monday. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3587-1.3598 range, allowing beginner traders to open a straightforward short position. This position could be manually closed by evening for a profit of at least 40 pips.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. There are still no global reasons for medium-term growth for the dollar, even with the potential renewal of conflict in the Middle East. Therefore, we expect the resumption of the upward trend from 2025 in 2026. Without a serious escalation in the Middle East, the dollar will not be able to demonstrate the growth it showed in February and March. Individual events may still provoke their strengthening, but overall, the geopolitical factor has taken a backseat.

On Tuesday, beginner traders can open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3476-1.3489 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. A price bounce from the area of 1.3476-1.3489 will allow for new long positions with a target of 1.3587-1.3598.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders can currently operate based on the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3476-1.3489, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. Today, the UK calendar of events is completely empty, while the US will release two relatively important reports: ISM and JOLTs. While these indicators should not be overlooked, it is essential to understand that the market has shifted its focus back to geopolitics.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Monday, which started on Friday, primarily due to geopolitical factors. The first trading day of the week was rich in various events, all somehow related to the Middle East. Around noon, it became known that an American destroyer attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and was attacked by two Iranian missiles. Shortly after, Washington announced that the ship had not been destroyed and had not sustained damage. A little later, Iran launched missiles and drones toward the UAE. Following these developments, the US and Israel are preparing to retaliate against Iran, with the United Arab Emirates also readying for a counterstrike. Therefore, by the end of Monday, it can be confidently stated that the war in the Middle East has resumed, and Donald Trump will need to remove one checkbox from his list of completed wars. The US dollar responded weakly to this event. As we warned, a worsening geopolitical situation will no longer lead to the same strong increases in the American currency as seen in February and March.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, only one trading signal was formed on Monday at the market opening. The price bounced off the 1.1745-1.1754 area, and for most of the day it remained in decline. Volatility on this day was average.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend remains. The geopolitical situation is not improving over time, and it could worsen this week. The world is gradually acclimatizing to the new reality in the Middle East and is seeking alternative sources of energy supplies, without much hope for a ceasefire between Iran and the US. Therefore, it is no longer worth expecting a significant strengthening of the dollar. At most, we can anticipate a continuation of the correction we have seen for the past three weeks.

On Tuesday, beginner traders may open short positions targeting 1.1584-1.1591 if the price consolidates below the 1.1655-1.1666 area. New long positions can be considered on a price rebound from the area of 1.1655-1.1666, targeting 1.1745-1.1754.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders should consider levels such as 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Tuesday, another speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled in the Eurozone, while the US will release the ISM and JOLTs reports. The ISM Services sector activity index is considered important, but the geopolitical events on Tuesday could easily overshadow it.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are key to long-term trading success.

If we see both EMAs still forming a Golden Cross intersection, then today Crude Oil has the potential to test its nearest resistance level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 112.20

2. Resistance. 1 : 108.65

3. Pivot : 103.88

4. Support. 1 : 100.33

5. Support. 2 : 95.56

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price holds at 103.88, there is a high probability #CL will rise toward 108.65.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 108.65 is broken, #CL could extend gains to 112.20.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The upside bias weakens if #CL falls below 95.56.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 104.22

EMA(200): 103.02

RSI(14) : 45.72

Economic News Release Agenda:

Today the United States will release the following economic data:

US - Trade Balance - 19:30 WIB

US - Final Services PMI - 20:45 WIB

US - ISM Services PMI - 21:00 WIB

US - JOLTS Job Openings - 21:00 WIB

US - New Home Sales - 21:00 WIB

US - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism - Tentative

US - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin - 03:30 WIB

With both EMAs condition forming a Golden Cross intersection, there is a potential today that Natural Gas will test its nearest resistance level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 2.959

2. Resistance. 1 : 2.907

3. Pivot : 2.831

4. Support. 1 : 2.779

5. Support. 2 : 2.703

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price holds at 2.831, there is a chance of a move up toward 2.907.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 2.907 is broken, #NG could head toward 2.959.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The upside bias weakens if the price falls below 2.703.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 2.835

EMA(200): 2.753

RSI(14) : 41.62

Agenda Rilis Berita Ekonomi:

Dari Amerika Serikat hari ini akan dirilis data-data eknonomi seperti berikut ini:

AS - Trade Balance - 19:30 WIB

AS - Final Services PMI - 20:45 WIB

AS - ISM Services PMI - 21:00 WIB

AS - JOLTS Job Openings - 21:00 WIB

AS - New Home Sales - 21:00 WIB

AS - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism - Tentative

AS - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin - 03:30 WIB

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its decline on Monday, which began on Friday before the market closed. Recall that on the last trading day of the previous week, it became known that Donald Trump rejected another "peace plan" from Tehran. As a result, the dollar immediately strengthened. However, as we have mentioned many times, the main geopolitical shock has already been absorbed by the market, and thus any strengthening of the US dollar due to geopolitical factors is likely to happen only in two cases: if a full-scale war resumes or in isolated instances triggered by negative news from the Middle East.

On Monday, the second scenario was implemented. Iran established new boundaries for its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and an American destroyer entered the restricted area, ignoring warnings from Tehran, and was subsequently attacked by two Iranian missiles. The fate of the ship is currently unknown, but it is apparent that Washington will not let this act of aggression go unanswered.

The question is: what form will the retribution take? Recent weeks have shown that Trump is not eager to resume bombings of Iran. Firstly, this makes little sense, as it does not lead to the deal the American president wants. Secondly, Trump does not want a protracted war since Congressional elections are approaching, and his party has a good chance of losing both chambers. Thirdly, the oil blockade of Iran brings huge super profits to the US, as its oil and gas export volumes are growing. Additionally, energy prices are currently much higher than they were a few months ago.

In this light, Washington has no urgent need to act, but Iran does. Without the ability to export its energy resources, the country loses almost its sole substantial source of budget income. Therefore, a US blockade of the Strait is significantly disadvantageous for Iran, so Tehran is more likely to attempt to lift the blockade by force than to remain isolated from the world for months or years.

We believe that each new piece of negative news from the Middle East will provoke a slight strengthening of the dollar. Overall, the American currency, as it lacked any grounds for medium-term growth, still does. The Middle Eastern war provided the dollar with a two-month reprieve, but all trends on the higher timeframes remain relevant. Thus, we expect further growth of the British currency.

And not just based on the possibility of a divergence in rates between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in 2026, although this factor will also support the British pound. The expectation is based on Trump's policies. Last year, it became clear that Trump wanted a weaker dollar, and his policies aim to create alignment internationally. Clearly, the dollar cannot grow if half of the world's countries view America unfavorably. The national debt continues to rise under Trump, the trade balance remains in deficit, the economy is slowing, inflation is rising, and experts are anticipating a stock market crash. Other countries and their currencies cannot boast of strong economic performance either, but against the dollar, even the Kazakh tenge looks like a relatively safe currency.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 99 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. On Tuesday, May 5, we expect movement within the range limited by 1.3434 and 1.3632. The upper channel of linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a downward correction that has already completed.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3489
• S2 – 1.3428
• S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3550
• R2 – 1.3611
• R3 – 1.3672

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its recovery after two "months of geopolitics." Trump's policy will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect the US currency to grow in 2026. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, shorts can be considered with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3434 based on technical grounds. In recent weeks, the British currency has recovered, and the geopolitical factor is losing its influence on the market.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.
• Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) – indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the upcoming day, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator – its entry into the overbought (above +250) or oversold (below -250) areas signals that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded quietly at the beginning of the week until Iran attacked an American warship in the Persian Gulf near Hormuz Island. This news alone pushed oil prices back to $120 per barrel and provided powerful support to the US dollar. As mentioned, we anticipated the dollar strengthening due to geopolitical events, but now that will only happen in isolated cases. A full bullish trend for the dollar is only possible if the war in the Middle East reignites. And it seems that this is indeed the direction in which things are heading.

In our articles, we prefer not to just list all the news from the previous day. We strive to provide expert analysis of global events. From our perspective, the likelihood of reaching a peace agreement between Iran and the US, which was already near zero, remains unchanged. Anyone following events in the Middle East knows that Iran has been under global sanctions for about 50 years due to its refusal to disarm its nuclear capabilities. Western countries see Iran as a threat to their security, hence they require Tehran to relinquish all nuclear stockpiles and guarantee that uranium will not be enriched in the future. Iran has consistently refused such proposals for about half a century. Therefore, Trump's recent military threats are unlikely to change Iran's nuclear policy.

The US President likely feels the sting of defeat and has decided to impose an oil blockade on Iran, reasoning that without revenue from energy exports, Iran will quickly concede and sign the required documents. However, Tehran is more likely to resume military actions in the Persian Gulf and attempt to lift the American blockade by force. Of course, it is still too early to say that conflict will resume, but it is clear that several US warships cannot maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for months or years. Iran has missiles and drones, and oil revenues are a major source of its budget. Therefore, it seems all but certain that military actions will recommence.

What to expect next? Firstly, the reaction from Washington to the attack on the American ship. Donald Trump has previously declared complete victory over the adversary and stated that all operational goals have been achieved. However, it appears that not everything is resolved, as the White House continues to expect Iran to relinquish its nuclear stockpiles. Secondly, we can expect a renewed increase in oil prices, as a new escalation of the conflict may lead to even more devastating consequences for the region's infrastructure, particularly oil and gas infrastructure. Essentially, it would make little sense for the US allies to focus on repairing damaged and destroyed facilities at this time if a new war were to quickly lead to their destruction once again. However, we do not believe that a new dollar trend will begin in the near future. Only if there is even more active military action than in March.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of May 5 is 70 pips, which is considered "average." We anticipate movement within the range of 1.1629-1.1769 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a bearish trend. However, the upward trend of 2025 may still resume. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and formed two "bearish" divergences, signaling a downward correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1658
• S2 – 1.1597
• S3 – 1.1536

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1719
• R2 – 1.1780
• R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains an upward trend amid waning geopolitical influence on market sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; therefore, we still expect long-term growth for the pair. If the price is below the moving average, shorts can be considered with targets at 1.1658 and 1.1629 based on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions with targets at 1.1780 and 1.1841 are relevant. The market is continuing to distance itself from geopolitical factors, while the dollar is losing its only growth driver.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.
• Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) – indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the upcoming day, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator – its entry into the overbought (above +250) or oversold (below -250) areas signals that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

The GBP/USD currency pair also declined on Monday, but unlike the EUR/USD pair, it maintains an upward bias. Last week, the 1.3588 level was broken, which served as the upper boundary of the sideways channel. This week, the British pound has yet to consolidate below the Senkou Span B line, so the upward trend is still intact. On Monday, there were no significant news events, aside from geopolitical ones. If it weren't for the news about the attack on an American destroyer in the Persian Gulf, we might not have seen any decline in the pair. However, once again, the factor of capital flight to safety played a role. For the new bullish trend of the dollar, this alone is insufficient, but it is enough for certain segments of dollar growth. Overall, the British pound continues to perform better than the dollar and even better than the euro. Donald Trump may soon impose new tariffs against the European Union, bringing the market back to the main theme of last year—the trade war. It was precisely because of this that the dollar weakened for most of 2025.

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend will be canceled only if the pound consolidates below the 1.3465-1.3480 area. We do not yet see reasons for such a sharp decline, but this week will see plenty of macroeconomic events. And something tells us that there won't be a shortage of geopolitical news either...

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders could open short positions at the opening of the European trading session, as the price bounced off the 1.3588 level. All subsequent signals were best left untraded, as the distance between the Ichimoku indicator lines and the level of 1.3588 did not exceed 30 pips.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that, in recent years, sentiment among commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, with non-commercial traders still holding net short positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for riskier currencies is falling, while demand for the dollar is rising.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue, in one form or another, for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors are currently dominating and have recently provided significant support for the dollar. Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the US dollar may still have growth potential.

According to the latest COT report (dated April 28), the "Non-commercial" group closed 3,500 BUY contracts and opened 5,000 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders fell by 8,500 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is continuing to form an upward trend, which could be reversed if the British pound consolidates below the 1.3465-1.3480 area. The influence of geopolitics appears to be weakening, as evidenced by recent movements. However, military actions in the region are currently on pause. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and there is no progress in negotiations, although some reports suggest that discussions are ongoing at a distance, without significant progress. This situation allows the British pound to maintain its bullish sentiment.

For May 5, we highlight the following important trading levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3521) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3553) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set a stop loss to breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Tuesday in the UK, there are no significant events planned, while the US will release relatively important ISM and JOLTs reports. It would be wise to focus on the ISM report and geopolitics.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3465-1.3480 if the price consolidates below the Senkou Span B line. Long positions can be opened with a target area of 1.3588 after the price rebounds from the Senkou Span B line or the area of 1.3465-1.3480.

Explanation of Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) – thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the four-hour. They are strong lines.
• Extremity levels – thin red lines from which the price had previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair intended to have a calm trading day on Monday, but geopolitical factors intervened once again. Recall that on Friday, news of yet another failure in negotiations between Iran and the US strengthened the dollar. On Monday, reports emerged that Iran attacked an American warship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with two missiles. The extent of the damage to the American vessel is unknown, but it is likely that there is some. Thus, the dollar showed growth again. As we mentioned, the U.S. currency could strengthen due to geopolitical factors.

However, for the dollar to experience sustained growth, the conflict in the Middle East must reignite. The dollar still has no other advantages aside from geopolitics.

From a technical perspective, we also observe a flat EUR/USD market. The price has failed to hold above the Senkou Span B line and the 1.1750-1.1760 area. Consequently, a decline towards the area of 1.1657-1.1666, which serves as the lower boundary of the sideways channel, can now be expected. Without the geopolitical factor, bulls may return to the market very quickly. It should also be noted that this week features important data on the US labor market.

In the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, three sell signals were generated. The first was generated late at night, so few could act on it. The second came when the critical line was breached during the European trading session. The third signal was during a bounce off the Kijun-sen line during the US trading session. Traders could act on the latter two signals, with the second one potentially being closed in profit by the evening or carried over to Tuesday.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated April 28. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but for some time, the dollar has served as a "reserve currency." However, this process may already be behind us.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro, while there remain sufficient factors for the dollar's decline. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will revert to the way it was. And that expiration may have already occurred. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of 1.06 (trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Currently, the pair has not strayed too far from the descending trend line, which has been breached several times.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 300, while the number of shorts increased by 5,300. Consequently, the net position fell by 5,600 contracts over the week.

EUR/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a downward trend, but in reality, we are observing a flat market. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, but it is not deteriorating, so there are currently few strong reasons to further strengthen the US dollar. Technically, the dollar is in a more advantageous position than the euro, but this advantage was not realized last week.

For May 5, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1758) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1720). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to set a stop loss to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will help protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Tuesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give another speech in the Eurozone, and we still do not expect any significant statements from her. In the US, an important ISM Services sector activity index will be released, along with a less important JOLTs report on job openings. Don't forget about geopolitics.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1657-1.1666 area, targeting 1.1615-1.1625. Long positions can be opened on a price rebound from the area of 1.1657-1.1666 with targets at the Kijun-sen line and the Senkou Span B line.

Explanation of Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) – thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the four-hour. They are strong lines.
• Extremity levels – thin red lines from which the price had previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

For the US dollar, the current week could be a failure or quite positive. All the most important events will once again be related to the US, and all critical reports will come from the US. Let's start with geopolitics. On Monday, it became known that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is heating up again. Iran launched two missile strikes on an American warship that was trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports from Iran, a warning signal was sent to the ship, which was ignored. After that, Tehran fired two missiles at the destroyer. At this point, it is unclear whether the ship was sunk, as Iran reported hitting the target, while Washington claimed the ship remained intact. Frankly, I tend to believe Tehran, but it is certainly better to believe Washington.

If Tehran has indeed sunk the American destroyer, this means that missile strikes on Iran are likely to resume in the near future. If the American ship is intact, there is hope for continuing negotiations, though they may be highly ineffective. In any case, this week we will see significant geopolitical news, and the market will react to at least some of it, as it did on Monday.

There will also be a considerable number of economic reports. On Tuesday, the ISM services sector activity index and the March JOLTs report on job openings will be released. I don't consider the JOLTs report to be significant, but it is still part of the labor market statistics package, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve. Let me remind you that the FOMC could vote for tightening monetary policy if the labor market recovers to previous levels. However, I wouldn't expect that to happen anytime soon, even if this week's data doesn't disappoint. The recovery of the US labor market will take a long time, just like the recovery of oil flows from the Middle East. At this point, it remains unclear if the US labor market is recovering at all.

On Wednesday, the ADP employment report will be released. However, this report is neither precise nor significant for the market. It is more of a supplementary indicator for Nonfarm Payrolls. And on Friday, we will see what all traders look forward to every month: the unemployment report and Nonfarm Payrolls. This time, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, while the payroll figure is expected to be 60,000. Of course, actual values will differ...

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (bottom image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen this week. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and I expect further increases in the instrument from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts, which may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave set to form. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is an increase into the 37 figure. Everything else will depend on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to forecast and are often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The British pound finds itself in an even better position than the euro. The start of the new week hasn't been ideal, but nothing too alarming has happened yet. Unfortunately, this may be the calm before the storm. At present, it is entirely unclear whether the attack by Iran on an American destroyer actually took place, as Washington denies any damage to its vessel. Meanwhile, an air alert has been declared in Dubai for the first time since the temporary ceasefire. The smoke is increasing without fire. Should a fire break out, demand for US currency may rise further, impacting the current wave pattern of the pound.

Last week, the Bank of England adopted a moderately "hawkish" position, much like the European Central Bank. The British central bank did not raise interest rates, but indicated that such a decision could become feasible at future meetings. The BoE recognizes that inflation is accelerating, and economic growth rates may slow due to potential policy tightening. However, inflation remains the BoE's top priority, so if inflation continues to rise, rates will need to be increased.

And inflation is likely to rise. We have only seen data for the first month of the oil conflict. In April, the Consumer Price Index could spike much higher than the current 3.3%. For the pound, this is also very good news, as the Federal Reserve intends to maintain the status quo throughout 2026. The new director, Kevin Warsh, along with Stephen Miran, may even advocate for a rate cut despite rising inflation. In fact, Miran votes for policy easing at every meeting.

The news background from the UK will be absent this week, making it much easier for the market. Analysis will largely focus on US geopolitical data and information. As I mentioned, the US labor market remains in a rather "cool" state, and it is very difficult to draw clear conclusions from the unemployment and payroll data for the first three months. Therefore, I would not be surprised if the April data turn out to be weak. What would make them strong if inflation in the US is accelerating, expenses are rising, and companies are being forced to cut production and service levels due to fuel shortages or high costs?

Based on all of the above, I believe the euro and the pound will gain this week. The only thing that could prevent the market from buying both instruments would be geopolitics. The situation in the Middle East has not yet flared up with renewed intensity, but it could if it turns out that the American destroyer has been significantly damaged or sunk. Therefore, Trump's next statement could be very important.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (bottom image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen this week. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and I expect further increases in the instrument from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts, which may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave set to form. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is an increase into the 37 figure. Everything else will depend on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to forecast and are often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The new week for the euro currency has not started particularly well, but the "mess" has not spoiled it. Traders are still aiming to buy due to events from the previous week. To recap, inflation in the European Union continues to accelerate, and with the current progress in the negotiations between Iran and the US, the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain blocked for some time. Consequently, further increases in energy prices can be expected. However, even without this, there is already a global oil shortage, and the Eurozone (along with many other countries) has been forced to turn to strategic reserves. The greater the shortage, the higher oil prices will rise.

Based on this, the European Central Bank may raise interest rates at its next meeting. I must admit, I expected a "hawkish" decision at the April meeting, but the central bank decided to wait and observe. Perhaps they hope inflation will not accelerate too much and then begin to slow? Before the next ECB meeting, two more inflation reports will be released, which can provide insight into the trend. However, at this moment, I see no reason for improvement in the energy situation.

It should also be noted that nothing is preventing the ECB from raising interest rates. Such a decision would slow the economy, but the central bank is prepared for it, unlike the Fed. In the US, tightening monetary policy is fundamentally unacceptable. Imagine the situation where the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who is likely to be appointed to lower interest rates and influence the FOMC to adopt "dovish" decisions, has to announce a tightening! Donald Trump could very well dismiss the new central bank president. While he cannot actually do this, the situation could turn comical. Additionally, the US labor market does not currently allow for hopes of raising interest rates. Therefore, the euro is in a more favorable monetary situation.

This week, there will be several speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde, Vice President Luis de Guindos, and Chief Economist Philip Lane. I expect these officials will clarify when and under what conditions the markets can expect interest rate hikes. Additionally, retail sales data for the EU will be released on Thursday, but this event is not currently of great interest to market participants. Thus, this week's main focus will be on geopolitics, important data from the US, and significant speeches from ECB officials.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (bottom image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen this week. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and I expect further increases in the instrument from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts, which may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave set to form. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is an increase into the 37 figure. Everything else will depend on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to forecast and are often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

On Monday, the USD/CHF pair is approaching the convergence of several moving averages, adding 0.28% for the day amid a new wave of risk aversion that supports the US dollar.

Market participants' sentiment is currently influenced by concerns over the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, arising from conflicting reports about an incident involving an American warship in the Strait of Hormuz. While some US sources have denied any missile strike, the ongoing uncertainty is pushing investors to reduce their exposure to riskier assets.

Tensions heightened after the Iranian news agency Fars reported that two missiles were fired toward an American warship that, according to Iran, ignored warnings from Tehran. This incident occurred amidst already existing tensions, soon after the US announced its plans to secure shipping safety in the region.

However, US officials have denied any direct missile strike, while Iranian sources suggested it could have been a warning shot that caused no confirmed damage. This uncertainty maintains a high degree of tension in the markets, especially in light of Iran's warning that any US intervention would be deemed a violation of the ceasefire.

The US dollar benefits from a surge in safe-haven capital, strengthening against major world currencies.

Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, also reinforce this trend, as investors anticipate potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

In this context, traders are exercising caution ahead of the release of key economic data from the US, particularly the ADP report on private sector employment and, primarily, Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. These data, along with speeches by Federal Reserve officials, are expected to provide additional clarity on monetary policy prospects following the hawkish statements last week.

Regarding the Swiss franc, the fundamental factors determining its exchange rate remain quite resilient, limiting its downside potential against the US dollar. Recent data indicate improved manufacturing activity: in April, the PMI in the manufacturing sector calculated by SVME rose to 54.5 points. However, as noted by Commerzbank, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has little room left for consistently weakening the franc. The bank believes that significant interventions will be required to affect the exchange rate of the Swiss currency—a step that seems unlikely due to risks to the bank's balance and political constraints.

Thus, while the US dollar is currently supported by demand for safe-haven assets, the Swiss franc's structural resilience may limit further gains in the USD/CHF pair in the short term.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar exchange rate against major currencies as of today. The US dollar's strongest positions were against the Australian dollar.

Silver (XAG/USD) starts the new week on a negative note, dropping to $73.50, reflecting a 2.41% loss as of Monday. The white metal is facing profit-taking amid a strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields.

Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to heighten market uncertainty. Iranian state media reports that missiles were allegedly fired at an American warship near this strategically important waterway after the vessel reportedly ignored warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Although US officials have denied any damage to ships, this incident underscores the fragility of the current situation.

Washington, in turn, has initiated a naval operation to ensure the safety of commercial shipping routes in the region, prompting Tehran to warn of possible retaliatory measures with an increased military presence. The lack of progress in diplomatic negotiations between the two countries continues to fuel high levels of tension.

However, despite their traditional role, the current geopolitical context does not provide sustainable support for precious metals, as capital flows are primarily directed toward the US dollar.

The US currency benefits from rising demand for safe-haven assets and receives additional support from increasing Treasury yields, which directly pressures silver—a non-yielding asset. With expectations that interest rates will remain high for an extended period, silver's appeal diminishes.

Expectations regarding monetary policy remain a key factor influencing the market. Market participants believe the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary risks, some of which are fueled by high energy prices linked to potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are shifting the timelines for anticipated easing of monetary policy while pricing in the possibility of tightening in the long term.

Against this backdrop, the combination of a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and persistent hawkish expectations regarding interest rates continues to limit silver's growth potential.

Investors should pay attention to upcoming macroeconomic data from the US—particularly labor market and business activity indicators—as well as speeches from Federal Reserve representatives for additional signals regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.

From a technical perspective, the drop below the 100-day SMA favors the bears; however, the 200-day SMA is angled upwards, indicating that silver will rise in the long term. In the near term, oscillators are negative, confirming the bulls' advantage. If prices cannot hold above the round level of 70.00, they will accelerate the decline to the 200-day EMA, then to the 200-day SMA, and finally to the round level of 61.00.