The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has evolved. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year, but the wave structure now looks quite ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest, smaller wave structures to make short-term forecasts, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade using standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave can be identified. If this is indeed the case, then the formation of this structure is complete, and a corrective sequence of at least three waves is now underway. Therefore, in the near term, an upward movement in quotes can be expected, but within a correction relative to the latest trend segment. So far, recent wave formations do not fit well into the higher-level structure, but the situation should become clearer over time. The euro's recovery may end near the 1.1824 level.

The EUR/USD pair showed almost no change during Tuesday, with very low volatility. Overall, the day was not rich in news, and the market is increasingly ignoring many reports and releases. For more than two months, economic data has been largely overlooked, as market participants consider geopolitics to be the dominant factor. At the same time, geopolitical news is often ignored as well, since it frequently consists of rumors or outright misinformation.

For example, consider the recent flow of headlines: on Friday, Donald Trump announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; on Saturday, Iran stated that the blockade would remain; on Sunday, Trump announced a second round of negotiations in Islamabad; on Monday, Iran officially rejected the talks; and on Tuesday, reports emerged that negotiations would still take place. In theory, the market should have been swinging wildly throughout these developments. However, it appears that the market has learned from past experiences and is no longer reacting to every rumor.

The information suggesting that negotiations will take place this week remains unverified and unofficial. Some media sources claim that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has approved the talks, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opposes them. Therefore, before tomorrow, the market may receive additional reports about the cancellation or resumption of negotiations based on "insider" information. I would not take such reports seriously—and neither is the market. At the start of the week, traders are not eager to jump into trades, preferring to wait calmly for further developments.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the short term it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave pattern appears largely complete and could only become more complex and extended in one case—if a stable and long-term truce is established between Iran, the US, Israel, and all other Middle Eastern countries. Otherwise, I believe a new downward wave structure could begin from current levels, or at least a corrective wave.

On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. I would like to emphasize that it is better to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than strictly labeling every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty about price direction—always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Last week, a reaction was observed at the bullish imbalance 12, which triggered the bulls' advance. Thus, traders had the opportunity to open long positions, which are currently in solid profit. Now traders can decide for themselves what to do with these positions: lock in profits or wait for further growth. Partial profit-taking is also an option. The geopolitical backdrop has improved compared to two weeks ago, which likely explains the sharp improvement in bullish sentiment. However, sentiment could quickly shift in favor of bears if the Middle East conflict resumes. From a technical standpoint, no bearish signals or patterns have formed, so I am not expecting a decline in the euro for now.

It is also worth noting that the US dollar's growth over the past one and a half to two months has been driven entirely by geopolitics. As soon as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately retreated and bulls took control. At present, the truce remains fragile but intact, despite failed negotiations last Saturday and their cancellation on Monday. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the break of key structural lows. The price movement over the past two months could evolve into a bearish trend only if geopolitical conditions deteriorate even further. But how much worse can things get? Much of the worst-case scenario has already been priced in. Markets often anticipate the most pessimistic outcomes in advance. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the Middle East conflict.

The technical picture is currently clear. First, the price showed no reaction to imbalance 11, meaning no sell signal was formed. Second, the price reacted to imbalance 12, generating a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which serves as a zone of interest for future buy trades and as a support area for the euro.

Tuesday's news background was extremely weak. ZEW economic sentiment indices were released in Germany and the eurozone, while in the US, the weekly ADP report and initial jobless claims data were published. None of these reports triggered any notable reaction among traders.

There are still many reasons for bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the US dollar may still show strength due to risk aversion, but this factor requires continuous escalation in the Middle East, which is unsustainable. After just two weeks of calm, the euro recovered by 300 points. There are no other strong supporting factors for the dollar. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the euro. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will drive bears in the long term?

Economic calendar for the US and the eurozone:

Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (17:30 UTC)

On April 22, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which does not appear particularly significant. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Wednesday is expected to remain weak.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The information backdrop shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or completed. Thus, bulls may well continue their advance in the near term, provided geopolitics does not suddenly shift toward renewed escalation.

Bulls had the opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12 with a target around 1.1670. This target has long been reached, and the upward movement may continue toward this year's highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which may provide another bullish signal in the future. For uninterrupted euro growth, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward a stable peace, which is not currently the case. However, bears are not gaining additional reasons to attack either. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis.

The latest rally in the pound began with a "Three Drives Pattern." Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, and the trend has remained bullish throughout. At present, the truce is quite fragile, and the parties involved have yet to decide whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Talks may resume this week, but the conflict could also reignite. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under a dual blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could join it. However, as of Tuesday, the situation has not changed. Both sides show willingness to reach an agreement, but no concrete steps are being taken.

The "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle, allowed bulls to take control. A second reaction occurred at imbalance 16, but such reactions are usually weaker than the first. Additionally, the pair swept liquidity from the February 26 high, and together these two factors triggered the current corrective pullback, which may end at imbalance 19. Thus, a new bullish signal may form soon, or the bullish pattern could be invalidated, allowing bears to launch a new offensive.

Tuesday's economic news background was fairly interesting and could have supported a new bullish push. The UK unemployment rate for February came in significantly better than expected—4.9% versus 5.2%. Average wage growth slowed to 3.8%, while new unemployment claims rose by 26.8 thousand. In fact, the latter two reports weighed against the pound, but the unemployment rate is a much more important indicator than the other two combined. The market ignored this information.

In the United States, the overall backdrop remains such that, in the long term, little can be expected other than a decline in the dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the US does little to change this. Geopolitics temporarily reminded markets of the dollar's safe-haven status, but overall, the long-term outlook for the US dollar remains difficult. The US labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—does not plan to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, four major protests against Donald Trump have taken place across the country. From an economic standpoint, I see no basis for sustained dollar growth.

Economic calendar for the US and the UK:

UK – Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC)

On April 22, the economic calendar contains only one entry, albeit an important one, which—unfortunately—may also be ignored, as was yesterday's data. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Wednesday may again be very limited.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a bullish signal. Price swept liquidity from bullish swings on March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, but bears failed to initiate an offensive in either case. This is another positive factor for the pound—traders remain in a bullish mindset. Thus, under current conditions, despite geopolitical risks, I believe the upward movement will continue. Most likely, the euro will also continue to rise. My target for the pound is the 2026 high. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered a corrective pullback, but a reaction to imbalance 19 may provide traders with a new buying signal.

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for GBP/AUD

Despite a correction on Tuesday, the GBP/AUD cross remains under seller pressure, developing a downward impulse after the release of mixed UK labor data. At the time of writing quotes consolidate near 1.8870, retreating from recent highs around 1.8941. Market participants digest opposing signals: The Bank of England's dovish turn weighs on the pound, while the RBA's hawkish rhetoric and Australia's resilient economy support the aussie.

Fundamental background: dovish BoE versus hawkish RBA

The pound took a double hit this week. On the one hand, today's labor data surprised: the ILO-method unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% (the forecast stood at 5.2%).

However, beneath the surface troubling signals emerge:

- Job creation amounted to only 25,000 versus 84,000 previously.

- Redundancies rose by 136,000 in the three months to February.

- HMRC payrolls fell by 11,000 employees.

A key focus for the Bank of England became slowing wage growth. Regular private sector pay, the metric that matters for policy, slowed to 3.2% year on year (from 3.3% in January). That represents the slowest wage growth since October 2020 and stands below the BoE's Q1 projection of 3.5%.

Market reaction:

- Markets began to shift from pricing in rate rises to pricing in rate cuts.

- Economists note that despite stronger headline prints, the UK labor market still shows excess capacity and remains vulnerable: despite the much better unemployment reading, hidden weakness persists.

Tomorrow's focus is on the UK CPI data for March.

Forecast:

If the data confirms an acceleration in inflation, that may temporarily support the pound. Economists, however, expect the general trend of shifting expectations from hikes to cuts to persist (see also our yesterday's reviews GBP/USD: pound balances on knife-edge between rates and geopolitics and GBP/CAD: amid diverging monetary paths).

While the pound loses its hawkish premium, the Australian dollar receives strong support from rising expectations of RBA tightening.

Key support factors for AUD:

- Strong labor market. Unemployment in March held at 4.3%, matching RBA forecasts, and employment rose by 18.0k. Full-time positions increased by 53.0k.

- Inflation expectations. Consumer inflation expectations in April rose to 5.9% — the highest since November 2022.

- Wage growth. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed the central bank focuses on preventing a rise in medium-term inflation expectations.

Market pricing:

- The probability of a rate hike at the RBA's May meeting stands around 70%.

- Markets fully price at least one 25-bp hike by year-end; some economists do not rule out a third hike if inflationary effects from the Iran conflict intensify further.

Key events

Conclusion

GBP/AUD stands at a crossroads, facing opposing central bank signals: the BoE hints at a pause and possible rate cuts as the labour market softens, while the RBA retains a hawkish bias and prepares for further tightening.

Investors also watch developments in the Middle East closely. The second round of US-Iran talks may occur this evening or tomorrow morning. However, Iran has not yet confirmed participation, and its chief negotiator said they prepare to "reveal new cards on the battlefield." That uncertainty exerts pressure on risk assets and shows up in GBP/AUD dynamics, as the market exhibits risk-off sentiment that strengthens the US dollar and weighs on risk sensitive currencies.

The key zone 1.8800–1.8940 will become the battleground in coming days. A technical breakout above 1.8941 (200-EMA on the H1 chart) would confirm a bullish scenario and open the way to 1.9000 and 1.9057 (200-EMA on the H4 chart)–1.9125 (50-EMA on the daily chart). Holding below 1.8800, by contrast, will keep bears in control and open the road to test yearly lows.

Markets have priced in an overly aggressive RBA tightening scenario (May hike probability ~70%), and any hint of rhetoric change could trigger a sharp bounce in the pair. Conversely, tomorrow's UK CPI will provide a crucial test for the pound: an upside surprise could temporarily support GBP and alter the balance of forces. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and tomorrow's UK inflation prints closely.

See also today's review DJIA (INDU): consolidation ahead of second round of talks

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Thus, according to the published data, Britain's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% after two months at 5.2% (a five-year high). Most analysts had expected the indicator to remain at the prior month's level in February. The pay metric also printed in the green: average earnings came in at 3.8% versus a forecasted dip to 3.6%. Excluding bonuses, the indicator fell to 3.6%, while the forecast stood at 3.5%.

However, the weekly change in claims for unemployment benefits printed in the red: instead of the forecasted rise to 21.4k, claims jumped to 26.8k. The upward dynamic there marks the fifth month in a row.

As noted above, that flaw does not exhaust the release's problems. Behind the "pretty" headline numbers lurk hidden weakness in the UK labor market.

For example, although the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since August last year, the reasons for that move are far from encouraging. The main driver was a rise in economic inactivity. The fall in the unemployment rate largely reflected people leaving the labor force. Economic inactivity rose to 21%. In other words, roughly 9 million working age people neither work nor seek employment due to illness, study, and a range of other reasons. Formally they do not count as unemployed, because the statistical machinery excludes them from that category, yet de facto they remain outside employment.

One more worrying leading indicator was payrolls (HMRC). According to March tax and customs data, the number of employees on payrolls fell by 11,000, while most experts expected a 5,000 decline. Moreover, the February result received a substantial downward revision, from +20,000 to -6,000.

Another negative signal came from cooling demand and an effective hiring freeze. The UK labor market ceased to be a recruiter's market: job vacancies fell below the 700,000 mark, the lowest level since the coronavirus crisis. We also see a persistent trend of rising redundancies, which indicates that firms are shifting from a labor shortage mindset to staff optimization. Artificial intelligence has contributed to this shift: according to recent reports from HR bodies, including CIPD, one in six UK firms expects headcount reductions in the next 12 months due to AI adoption.

The "green tint" of the pay metrics also proves deceptive. Although nominal wages remain relatively high, February recorded the slowest pace of wage growth since late 2020—remember, growth stood at just +3.8% including bonuses and +3.6% excluding bonuses. Taking into account the inflation surge driven by the energy crisis and geopolitical tensions, real household purchasing power will decline.

There is also another factor that will show up later with a negative effect. From April 1 this year, the UK raised the national living wage to £12.71 per hour for employees aged 21 and over. That decision will clearly add pressure on small businesses, which, amid weakening demand, may respond only with further cuts and a halt to hiring young workers.

Thus, today's UK labor market report does not qualify as merely mixed — it proves weak and negative in its essence. Therefore, the GBP/USD market reaction to this release looks perfectly logical and justified.

Nevertheless, market participants avoid opening large positions in GBP/USD and across major currency pairs. Geopolitics plays the role of a stop valve: the uncertainty over a second round of US-Iran talks keeps traders on hold. That uncertainty will resolve very soon: either the talks will take place and the temporary truce will be extended, or the talks will not occur, and events will follow an escalation path.

In the first case, markets will increase appetite for risk assets and, accordingly, for the pound. If the Middle East conflict flares up again, the safe-haven dollar will return to the spotlight, and GBP/USD will head toward the base of the 34 figure, especially against the backdrop of weak labor data. Which way the scales will tip, we will find out very soon.

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for DJIA (INDU)

On Tuesday, the US stock market entered a state of tense anticipation. After Monday opened with a gap down, interrupting the recent winning streak of the indices, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed cautious pre-market gains, adding 0.5% and trading above 49700.0. Investors froze, awaiting two key events at once: a resumption of talks between the US and Iran, and Senate hearings to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

Geopolitical background: between hope and threats

On Monday, markets had to price a sharp escalation after a quiet weekend. Reports that US forces seized an Iranian cargo ship triggered threats of retaliation from Tehran and pushed tensions higher. This development hit prices immediately: Brent crude jumped above 100 per barrel again, and major Wall Street indices finished the day near the red zone.

On Tuesday, sentiment began to shift. Reports emerged that Tehran notified regional mediators of its readiness to send a delegation to talks in Islamabad. Vice President J. D. Vance is expected to participate in the second round of discussions this evening or tomorrow morning. That hope for a diplomatic solution prevents markets from collapsing and supports demand for risk assets, even though the truce officially expires on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, the positive impulse meets hard rhetoric. President Donald Trump said he considers it unlikely the current truce will be extended if an agreement does not materialize in the coming hours, and he threatened to keep the blockade of Iranian ports in place. Iran's chief negotiator, for his part, warned that his country will not negotiate "under the shadow of threats." That dynamic creates a fork of two extreme scenarios that keeps the index in a narrow range.

Key event of the day: Kevin Warsh confirmation hearings

While geopolitics dominates the headlines, the main intraday market event will be Senate Banking Committee hearings to consider Kevin Warsh's nomination to chair the Federal Reserve.

This event matters greatly for the stock market, which in recent weeks rose mainly on hopes for an imminent easing of interest rates. Warsh, known as a hawk, is nevertheless expected to stress his commitment to keeping the Fed independent from political pressure.

Economists outline several possible scenarios:

- Positive for the market. If Warsh clearly prioritizes fighting inflation and reaffirms the Fed's independence, that may stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence in the dollar.

- Negative for the market. If the hearings raise doubts about his competence or produce signs that he will yield to administration pressure to accelerate rate cuts at the expense of inflation control, that could trigger panic in the bond market and a renewed wave of volatility in equities.

Any hints about monetary policy in Warsh's remarks will matter more than routine macro releases.

Macroeconomic data: retail sales

At 12:30 GMT, US retail sales for March will be published. This first full report will allow assessment of how strongly the March spike in gasoline prices hit consumer demand.

Forecasts:

The consensus forecast implies an acceleration that reflects nominal spending increases driven by high inflation rather than a real rise in consumption. Any significant downside surprise could deepen concerns that the US consumer impulse has peaked.

Brief technical analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA or INDU on trading terminals) remains in a growth phase after an impressive rally.

Key DJIA levels:

- Key resistance: 50000.0 — psychological level. A breakout would open the way to new highs.

- Key support: 49000.0–48489.0 — last week's "war" lows and the 200-EMA on the 1-hour chart.

- Deep support: 47860.0–47420.0 — 50-EMA and 144-EMA on the daily chart.

The index recovered all losses incurred since the onset of the military conflict in February and trades near historical highs. Indicators on the daily chart — RSI, OsMA, Stochastic — show overbought conditions, yet the index holds above key moving averages, preserving chances for further gains.

Conclusion

Dow Jones Industrial Average retains upside potential, balancing hope for a diplomatic breakthrough against the reality of persistent military threats; investors prefer not to open large positions until the situation clarifies.

The key zone 48500.0–50000.0 will become the arena for a decisive battle in the coming hours. Holding above 49200.0 will preserve chances to test 50000.0, while a drop below 48400.0 will open the way to a deeper correction.

The market now responds more to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors than to corporate earnings, and even solid corporate reports cannot yet reverse the overall trend. 14:00 GMT, the Warsh hearing start, may become the catalyst that takes the market out of uncertainty.

The first phase, labeled "emergency," provides for the ability to respond urgently. If an immediate threat arises, the network will have a mechanism to disable legacy signature types. This will allow users' funds to be forcibly moved to new, quantum-resistant accounts. In addition, a funds-recovery feature using zero-knowledge proofs will be implemented, adding an extra layer of security and privacy.

The subsequent phases of the plan are aimed at a more systematic and controlled implementation of new cryptographic standards. In 2026, a thorough audit of potential network vulnerabilities will be carried out, along with testing of various post-quantum cryptographic solutions. This will make it possible to select the most effective schemes suitable for the XRPL. Later in 2026, the gradual rollout of new signatures will begin, and developers promise to make the process as smooth as possible. The ultimate goal of this multi-stage process is a full transition of the XRP Ledger to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2028.

All of this indicates that Ripple aims to be one of the first blockchains to successfully adapt to the new cryptographic reality, staying ahead of potential threats. Such foresight, combined with a clear action plan, underscores Ripple's serious commitment to the security of its ecosystem and its desire to ensure its reliability for years to come, even amid rapid technological progress.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,500, which opens a direct path to $78,400, and from there to $80,100. The most distant target is the high near $83,100; breaking that level would indicate attempts to resume a bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $75,000. A return of the instrument below this area could quickly push BTC toward $73,100. The furthest target on the downside would be around $71,400.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,382 opens a direct path to $2,475. The most distant target is the high near $2,585; exceeding that would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $2,300. A return of the instrument below this area could quickly push ETH toward $2,244. The furthest target on the downside would be around $2,162.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The test of the 158.95 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 159.21.

At the moment, all attention is focused on negotiations between the United States and Iran. However, according to Pakistani diplomatic sources, there are currently no signs of the Iranian delegation's presence in Islamabad. The lack of confirmed information about the arrival—or even the scheduled arrival—of Iranian representatives creates uncertainty and raises concerns about the future course of the dialogue. Negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic are crucial for stabilizing both regional and global conditions, and even the slightest signs of a potential breakdown in talks are viewed with particular concern.

In addition, Kevin Warsh is expected to speak in the Senate later in the day. As the leading candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, his statements will be closely analyzed. Any hints regarding future interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing or tightening programs, as well as his assessment of current economic challenges, could trigger increased volatility. Investors will look for confirmation or rejection of their expectations regarding the Fed's next steps. Given the overlap of these events, the second half of the day promises to be dynamic and potentially tense.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.29 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 159.60 (thicker green line). Around 159.60, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). The pair may rise today if tensions between the US and Iran remain high.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.14 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 159.29 and 159.60 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.14 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.87, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return with weak US data and a dovish tone from Warsh in the Senate.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.29 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.14 and 158.87 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3514 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.3488.

The UK labor market presented a mixed picture in the latest reporting period. On one hand, encouraging data showed that the overall unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, which is a positive signal reflecting a recovery in economic activity after previous downturns. However, alongside this positive trend, data on new unemployment benefit claims came in significantly higher than expected. This indicator, which reflects current labor market trends and layoffs, showed an unexpected increase. The rise in claims may indicate ongoing problems in certain sectors of the economy or new obstacles to employment, despite the overall decline in unemployment.

Next, we await US data on retail sales and pending home sales. Retail sales directly reflect consumer activity, a key driver of GDP growth. Unexpectedly strong data could strengthen the US dollar. Meanwhile, pending home sales serve as a leading indicator for the real estate market, with their dynamics signaling future sales levels.

Kevin Warsh's speech in the Senate will be the most important event of the day. As a candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, his remarks will be closely analyzed for signals about future monetary policy. Any hints regarding interest rate changes, quantitative easing or tightening programs, as well as his view on current economic challenges amid a complex geopolitical environment, could trigger significant volatility in the currency market.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3510 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3531 (thicker green line). Around 1.3531, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). The pound can rise today within the broader bullish market.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3501 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.3510 and 1.3531 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3501 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3476, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound may return if Warsh takes a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3510 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3501 and 1.3476 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1769 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

Eurozone business climate data came in significantly worse than expected, leading to a drop in the euro, though not as sharp as it could have been. The sharp decline in sentiment indices for both the eurozone and Germany, exceeding economists' forecasts, signaled profit-taking on previously opened long euro positions. The simultaneous strengthening of the US dollar also contributed to the euro's decline against the dollar.

In the second half of the day, financial market attention will shift to US data. Retail sales figures are of primary importance, as they reflect consumer spending, which makes up a large share of US GDP. Positive data would indicate strong consumer confidence supporting economic growth and would likely strengthen the US dollar. At the same time, the report on pending home sales will be released. This indicator reflects activity in the secondary housing market and serves as a leading indicator for the sector as a whole. Typically, an increase in this indicator signals rising housing demand.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1768 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1790. At 1.1790, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1756 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.1768 and 1.1790 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1756 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1734, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return today amid a hardline stance from the US and Iran.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1768 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1756 and 1.1734 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Donald Trump says he will not accept a bad deal, expects Tehran to attend talks, and is prepared to resume bombing if it doesn not. The US president plays his usual game: negotiating with a gun at the table, backing off a little to secure the opponent's acceptance of his terms. Will Iran concede?

The European Central Bank views the Middle East conflict as a serious, unpredictable shock, so it needs time to assess and decide. Christine Lagarde is prepared to hike interest rates aggressively if governments become too generous with fiscal stimulus. Her deputy, Luis de Guindos, urges caution.

Dynamics of business confidence in Germany

The ECB needs to be cautious — measure twice, then cut once. The drop in German investor confidence to a three-year low points to serious problems in Germany's economy. A surge in Brent threatens stagflation — rising inflation concurrent with slowing growth. These two-way risks complicate the ECB's decision-making and, in turn, temper EUR/USD's bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, at the Fed, the chairmanship may change. The Senate has begun hearings on Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee. Markets will watch his testimony closely. Republicans hold a Senate majority, but Senator Tom Tillis's reluctance to confirm Warsh while legal proceedings concerning Jerome Powell continue could derail the process. After May 15, the central bank chair's seat may still be occupied by the current incumbent.

Investors will focus on Warsh's inflation views. The more he emphasizes cuts to the federal funds rate amid a temporary uptick in consumer prices, the more senators may see him as a Trump-aligned pick.

Sooner or later, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East will end, and the dollar's fate will depend on Fed policy and the FOMC's composition.

Technically, the daily chart shows that EUR/USD is contesting the important pivot level of 1.1760. A break below that level could drag the price down toward 1.1730 and 1.1700, offering good selling opportunities. Conversely, if buyers hold the support level, the odds of a euro rally toward 1.1830 and 1.1865 will increase.

Very weak data on eurozone business sentiment put pressure on the euro. Indicators reflecting business expectations for future conditions showed a noticeable deterioration due to the war in the Middle East, signaling growing concerns about the eurozone's economic outlook. Following the release of negative statistics, investors and traders began revising their positions, shifting toward safer assets. The decline in the sentiment index, which exceeded analysts' forecasts, became a catalyst for taking profits on long euro positions opened yesterday.

In the second half of the day, financial markets will focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States. Two important indicators reflecting consumer demand and activity in the housing market will be published: retail sales and pending home sales. Retail sales data is one of the most important indicators of consumer spending, which makes up a significant portion of US GDP. An increase in the indicator would signal strong consumer demand supporting economic growth and could have a positive impact on the US dollar. Conversely, a decline in sales—especially if larger than expected—may raise concerns about slowing economic activity and lead to a weaker dollar.

At the same time, the report on pending home sales will be released. This indicator reflects activity in the secondary housing market and serves as a leading indicator for the real estate sector as a whole. Both reports may trigger notable volatility in the currency market. Traders will closely analyze the released figures, comparing them with expectations.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1770 may lead to a rise toward 1.1800 and 1.1830
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1750 may lead to a decline toward 1.1730 and 1.1705

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3515 may lead to a rise toward 1.3530 and 1.3550
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3485 may lead to a decline toward 1.3450 and 1.3430

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.36 may lead to a rise toward 159.60 and 159.84
• Selling on a breakout below 159.10 may lead to a decline toward 158.87 and 158.57

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1770 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1745 and a return to this level

For GBP/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3518 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3485 and a return to this level

For AUD/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7166 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7142 and a return to this level

For USD/CAD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3669 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3647 and a return to this level

Today, Tuesday, during the first half of the European session, gold continues to post intraday losses, holding below the $4,800 mark, although it is still trading above the weekly lows recorded the previous day.

Market participants remain cautious about the prospects of a possible agreement between the United States and Iran amid ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a naval blockade, US Navy forces detained a commercial vessel flying the Iranian flag in the Gulf of Oman. In response, Tehran once again blocked this strategically important route, supporting oil prices. Rising oil prices, in turn, are boosting inflation expectations and strengthening the US dollar, thereby putting pressure on gold. At the same time, the potential for further dollar gains appears limited due to the decreasing likelihood of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market estimates the probability of a rate cut by year-end at around 45–50%, which limits the US dollar's upside while simultaneously supporting the precious metal.Amid ongoing uncertainty regarding potential negotiations to end the conflict between the United States and Iran, traders are advised to avoid aggressive directional positions. A more prudent approach would be to wait for clearer confirmation of a continued downward move before opening positions targeting further declines in the XAU/USD pair.US President Donald Trump stated that an American delegation will travel to Pakistan for a new round of talks with Iran aimed at extending the current, but fragile, truce, which expires on Wednesday. At the same time, the Iranian side is showing caution regarding further dialogue, citing pressure from the United States.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized that Tehran is not prepared to negotiate under threats. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also noted that ongoing violations of the ceasefire by the United States are significantly complicating the diplomatic process. Nevertheless, incoming information suggests that the Iranian delegation still plans to arrive in Islamabad for negotiations. Therefore, it is important to closely monitor news related to US-Iran relations, as it may continue to drive market volatility. An additional factor for Tuesday's trading will be remarks from incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, which could provide new direction for gold prices. However, the current mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution before opening strong directional positions in gold.

From a technical perspective, the precious metal maintains a moderately positive short-term bias, as the Relative Strength Index remains in positive territory. However, signals are mixed, so traders should be cautious in choosing direction. The metal has found support at the 14-day EMA. For further upside, it needs to break above the 50-day SMA near the psychological level of $4,900.

The wave situation remains "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave the bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, after which the geopolitical background supported the bulls for two weeks. At present, the situation in the Middle East risks escalating again, so the bears feel more confident. However, the geopolitical vector can change at any moment. For now, bulls still dominate the market.

The information backdrop on Monday was important, but traders chose to ignore it. Otherwise, the US dollar would have shown strong growth. Traders are increasingly deciding not to rush to conclusions, as geopolitical news often changes rapidly. As recently as Friday, the market welcomed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but as of Tuesday, the strait is closed, negotiations between the US and Iran have been canceled, and war could resume as early as today or tomorrow. The situation with oil remains complex despite a decline in its price over the past few days. Citigroup warns that by the end of June, global crude oil inventories will fall to their lowest level in eight years. If traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored, $110 per barrel will be the minimum price. The global oil deficit will increase to 1.3 billion barrels if the strait remains blocked for another month. If a truce is signed and the strait is unblocked, oil production and transportation will begin to gradually recover in May. Extending the blockade of the strait for two months would push oil prices up to $130 per barrel.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above a descending trend channel, which allows for expectations of a full-fledged trend. After the formation of a "bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3540. Thus, the decline may continue toward the levels of 1.3482 and 1.3439. However, the chart pattern on the hourly timeframe is currently clearer, so I recommend relying on it. No new emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,603, while the number of short positions increased by 5,973. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively 55 thousand versus 110 thousand. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, which led to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the British pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but the latest news suggests that a full truce is still far off, and war could resume at any time. In that case, the bears' advantage could become even stronger.

Economic calendar for the US and the UK:

• UK – Unemployment rate (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Average earnings index (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Change in claimant count (06:00 UTC).
• US – ADP nonfarm employment change (12:15 UTC).
• US – Retail sales change (12:30 UTC).

On April 21, the economic calendar includes five entries, with UK reports drawing particular interest. The information backdrop may influence market sentiment on Tuesday.

GBP/USD forecast and trader tips:

Selling the pair is possible today upon a rebound from the 1.3513–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3428–1.3437. Buying is possible upon consolidation above the 1.3513–1.3539 level, targeting 1.3596–1.3620.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

The main catalyst driving interest in today's events is the upcoming testimony of Kevin Warsh. Nominated by Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee today for confirmation hearings. These hearings promise to be among the tensest and most controversial in recent decades, given his well-known views on monetary policy and the potential impact on the Fed's future course.

The outcome of these hearings and the subsequent Senate vote will directly determine the next steps for the world's largest central bank. Installing a Fed chair whose views may differ from the current course would inevitably prompt a global reassessment of risks and investment strategies. Such uncertainty typically favors more volatile but potentially higher-return assets, while safe-haven instruments like the US dollar can lose appeal.

After his opening remarks, Warsh will take lawmakers' questions on a wide range of topics. Many are expected to probe the Fed's independence. Given Warsh's support from the president, some senators have expressed concerns on this point. Trump has made it clear he wants the next chair to move toward rate cuts. Economic research shows that countries that protect monetary policy from political interference tend to enjoy lower inflation. Warsh will therefore face questions testing his ability to soothe the White House while assuring markets that his policy proposals will be dictated by economic needs, not by Donald Trump.

Rate guidance will be another key focus. In July 2025, Warsh said interest rates should be lower, effectively endorsing Trump's stance. In the months before his nomination, he argued that technological advances, including AI, would boost growth without sparking higher inflation, giving the Fed room to cut rates. But the US-Iran war changed the landscape, and policymakers have since converged on the view that there is no urgency to rush rate cuts.

Another important issue is the Fed's balance sheet, which Warsh has pledged to shrink. The Fed's balance currently stands at $6.7 trillion, and how exactly it plans to reduce it remains unclear. That task could be difficult because balance sheet contraction risks removing much-needed liquidity from short-term interbank markets.

In any case, Warsh's statements and answers are likely to move FX markets today.

EUR/USD

Buyers should be thinking about taking the 1.1790 level. Only then can they target a test of 1.1822. From there, a move to 1.1850 is possible, though doing so without support from large players would be difficult. The farther target is 1.1890. On a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1760. If no one shows up there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1730 or to open long positions from 1.1705.

GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3540. Only that will open a path to 1.3565, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farther target is the 1.3595 area. On a drop, bears will try to seize control at 1.3505. If they succeed, a break of the range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD down toward 1.3477 with a prospect of reaching 1.3450.

Senator Tom Tillis, one of the key participants in the process, said it is not feasible to complete all required procedures during the current April session of the banking committee, including debate and a final vote. According to him, the parties need more time to reach a compromise, especially on the issue of stablecoin yields — one of the most contentious and technical elements of the proposed regulation.

Senator Bernie Moreno voiced particular concern about further delay, warning that if CLARITY is not adopted by May, the development of comprehensive digital?asset regulation in the US could be delayed indefinitely. That would create long-term uncertainty for market participants, investors and developers, slowing innovation and potentially forfeiting opportunities to grow the American digital finance industry.

So far, there has been little market reaction to the news; Bitcoin and Ether, after yesterday's strong gains, are eyeing fresh monthly highs.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,500, which would open a direct path to $78,400 and then to $80,100. The longer-term target is the high near $83,100; a break above that would signal an attempt to return to a bull market. On a pullback, I expect buyers at $75,000. A drop back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $73,100, with a further target around $71,400.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,382 would open a direct path to $2,475. The further target is the high near $2,585; a break above that would strengthen bullish sentiment and revive buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,300. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,244, with a further target around $2,162.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The wave situation on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke through six previous peaks, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. A two-week truce between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish." In the near future, the geopolitical background may worsen again, which would give strength and confidence to the bears. However, breaking the bullish trend would require two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low.

There were two important events on Monday. First, Tehran announced the cancellation of the second round of negotiations with the United States due to the American side's refusal to lift the blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz. Later in the evening, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. It's worth stepping slightly away from the geopolitical factor, especially since we will likely receive much more information on this topic during the week. On Monday evening, Lagarde stated that the regulator has begun to face difficulties in determining monetary policy parameters. "At this time, we cannot be confident in any particular monetary policy path due to uncertainty regarding the scale and duration of the military conflict in the Middle East," the ECB head said. Lagarde also noted that the information backdrop is constantly changing: at times the sides are negotiating, at other times they are ready to resume hostilities; the Strait of Hormuz opens and closes intermittently. As a result, the ECB cannot form clear forecasts regarding the conflict's impact on the eurozone economy. According to Lagarde, more time and information are needed to assess the consequences of the war in the Middle East. Therefore, the ECB may adopt a neutral decision at its April meeting.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1849, reversed in favor of the US currency, and consolidated below the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1778. Thus, the decline may continue toward the next retracement level of 61.8% at 1.1706. A consolidation above 1.1778 would allow bulls to launch a new attack targeting 1.1849. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 13,693 long positions and closed 19,866 short positions. Over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has evaporated. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 214,000, while short positions total 188,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Naturally, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has only been paused, not ended. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. The dollar may still benefit from this situation.

Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• US – ADP nonfarm employment change (12:15 UTC).
• US – Retail sales change (12:30 UTC).

On April 21, the economic calendar contains four entries, none of which strongly attract attention. The influence of the news backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be limited.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from 1.1824 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1745 (target reached). New selling opportunities arise upon a close below 1.1745 with a target of 1.1666. Buying positions are recommended upon a rebound from 1.1745 with a target of 1.1824.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2082–1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The rally in global equity markets paused, though the overall uptrend remains intact, as signs that Iran may join talks with the US boosted optimism about progress in the Middle East ahead of the ceasefire deadline. Oil prices eased.

The MSCI All Country World Index rose by 0.1% on Tuesday as easing geopolitical tensions and a pickup in AI-related activity supported Asian equity markets. The advance was interrupted on Monday after a turbulent weekend in the Middle East cast doubt on peace talks. South Korean indices hit record highs, while Apple shares fell late in US trading after John Ternus was announced as its next CEO.

Global benchmark Brent crude fell by 0.7% to $94.81 per barrel as expectations that diplomacy would prevail ahead of the two-week ceasefire deadline improved sentiment. Treasury prices and the US dollar index were largely unchanged.

The world's eyes are on Pakistan today, where the fate of one of the planet's most critical shipping corridors — the Strait of Hormuz — is being decided. Tensions between the United States and Iran have reached a peak, and the prospect of renewed talks in Islamabad has become the key factor in efforts to prevent further escalation. The first round of dialogue held there produced no tangible results, leaving a trail of uncertainty and heightened fear of renewed conflict.

As a result of these geopolitical swings, the US dollar has experienced a period of weakness, declining over the past three weeks. At the same time, several equity indices that had borne the brunt of the confrontation's impact have begun actively to recoup their losses. This market reversal suggests that participants are starting to price in scenarios that assume de-escalation. Lower oil prices — a direct consequence of reduced risks around the Strait of Hormuz — in turn bolster expectations for more durable economic growth, which is positive for equities.

Further developments around talks in Pakistan will have a direct — and possibly decisive — impact on financial markets. Success in reaching an agreement, or at least signs of a constructive dialogue, could lead to further strengthening of risk assets, a weaker dollar, and support a sustainable recovery in the global economy. Conversely, failure of diplomatic efforts would likely trigger a new wave of volatility, push energy prices higher, and rekindle concerns about global economic stability.

Elsewhere, gold fell by 0.6% to around $4,800 an ounce. Silver plunged by about 1% to roughly $78.90 an ounce, while Bitcoin eased to approximately $75,750.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,125. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a rally to $7,138. Equally a priority for bulls will be to secure control above $7,156, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must step up around $7,106. A break below that level would likely push the instrument back to $7,087 and could open the way to $7,066.

Yesterday, Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, made a series of important statements at the Web3 Festival conference in Hong Kong. According to Buterin's proposed strategy, Ethereum is making a strategic choice that prioritizes reliability and manageability over instant transactions. The focus is on laying a foundation for various decentralized applications and digital assets while ensuring unprecedented security and sustainability.

Buterin noted that the prospect of ZKVM as a primary verification method by 2028 opens exciting opportunities for scaling. "The ability to prove EVM execution in real time while ensuring security is key to expanding Ethereum's functionality without compromising its decentralized nature," he stated.

The developer also highlighted short-term improvements, such as EIP-8141, aimed at native support for smart contract wallets, privacy, and quantum-resistant signatures. "As the world approaches the era of post-quantum computing, proactive steps in cryptographic security ensure that Ethereum remains protected and relevant in the face of new threats."

As a result, Ethereum saw a slight strengthening.

Regarding the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the long term, which has not disappeared.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $76,300, targeting a move to $77,000. At around $77,000, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of $75,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $76,200 and $77,000.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $75,600, targeting a decline to $74,700. At around $74,700, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $76,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $75,600 and $74,700.

Ethereum

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $2,329, targeting a move to $2,361. At around $2,361, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $2,306 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $2,329 and $2,361.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $2,306, targeting a decline to $2,271. At around $2,271, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $2,329 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $2,306 and $2,271.

The price test at 158.83 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 pips.

Yesterday, trading activity in the USD/JPY pair left much to be desired. Amid uncertainty in the Middle East, traders were particularly cautious. The main catalyst for the yen's turnaround in the second half of the day was Iran's changing position. Morning statements that were marked by a decisive rejection of further negotiations gave way to more flexible rhetoric by midday. This indicated a possible readiness for dialogue from Tehran, which alleviated fears of further escalation in the standoff.

However, it should be emphasized that the situation in the Middle East remains tenuous. Traders will continue to closely monitor further developments and any new statements from key participants. Any shift in sentiment or actions could quickly lead to renewed fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 158.95 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.21 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 159.21, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.76 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 158.95 and 159.21 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 158.76 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.48 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.95 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 158.76 and 158.48 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price at 1.3532 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying pounds. As a result, the pair only moved up by 10 pips.

Today's first half is expected to be crucial for the future prospects of the British economy and, consequently, for the direction of the Bank of England's policy. Attention will focus on two key macroeconomic indicators: the unemployment rate and changes in average earnings. These data not only reflect the current state of the labor market but also serve as critical signals for shaping future interest-rate decisions.

The unemployment rate is a classic barometer of economic activity. Its decline typically indicates a strong labor market, increased labor demand, and potentially higher consumer spending. Against this backdrop, data on average earnings growth take on particular significance. An acceleration in wage growth that exceeds inflation expectations may confirm concerns about the sustainability of price increases—especially given the recent sharp rise in energy prices.

The Bank of England carefully monitors the dynamics of average wages, as they directly affect the purchasing power of the population and, in turn, consumer activity. A sudden rise in earnings could justify a tighter monetary policy, further strengthening the British pound.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy pounds today when the price reaches around 1.3528 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3555 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3555, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). Strong pound growth can only be anticipated after positive economic data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy pounds today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3514 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3528 and 1.3555 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell pounds today after breaking the 1.3514 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3488 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell pounds today if the price tests 1.3528 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3514 and 1.3488 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price at 1.1763 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. However, the trade ended in a loss as the pair did not decline.

Yesterday's American session was marked by a recovery in risk appetite, allowing the euro to continue rising. Initial declines were triggered by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which traditionally raises caution among investors and leads to a temporary outflow of capital from more volatile instruments. However, by midday, the situation began to transform in a more favorable direction. Reports indicated a softening of Tehran's position on the possibility of resuming negotiations.

Today, the first half of the day is expected to be filled with economic news. Particular attention will be focused on key indicators reflecting the level of business activity in the Eurozone, especially in its driving force—Germany. Significant data on the Eurozone business sentiment index from the respected ZEW research center is expected. This indicator is rightly considered a leading indicator, as it provides business forecasts of future economic trends.

Simultaneously, similar data will be presented for Germany. The ZEW business sentiment index for Germany, as well as the current situation index, will provide a more comprehensive picture of the real state of affairs in the leading European economy. An improvement in the business sentiment index could serve as a positive signal for the entire Eurozone, supporting the euro.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1785 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1813. At point 1.1813, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1769 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1785 and 1.1813 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches level 1.1769 (red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1740, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair may persist today within the observed correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1785 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1769 and 1.1740 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Alongside the complete absence of double bottoms, investors may be alarmed by low trading volumes and narrow market breadth. When the S&P 500 hit its first record high since October, only 11 of the 500 stocks registered new 52-week highs. By the week ending April 17, that number had risen to 48.

S&P 500 and Equal Weight Index dynamics

The April rally in the broad index has been powered by a handful of large-cap names, allowing the S&P 500 to significantly outperform its equal-weighted version. Today's market is far from the bullish tape of 2021, when about 90% of stocks traded above their 200-day moving average. Now that figure is closer to 60%.

That said, narrow breadth alone is not a reason to panic. Markets always have leaders — whether the Magnificent Seven or another group — and others tend to follow. There are still stocks to buy, so the odds that the S&P 500 rally continues are high enough to remain aligned with bulls.

Dynamics of S&P 500 stocks trading above 200-day EMA

The same holds for US equity trading volumes. In April, they are about 11% below the six-month average. In March, amid a spike in Middle East tensions, volumes were roughly 9.5% above average. Given the S&P 500's drop over that period, it appears traders sold with more conviction in early spring than they are buying now in mid-spring.

In short, uncertainty exists, but as that uncertainty fades, trading volumes in US equities should rise, along with the army of bulls. Are new record highs for the S&P 500 just around the corner?

The answer will depend on developments in the Middle East. The ceasefire window is expiring, and Donald Trump sees an extension as unlikely. The US president has threatened renewed bombing if no deal with Iran is reached. At the same time, US-Iran negotiations are still likely to occur, and hopes for peace are keeping US equity bulls optimistic.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has formed an inside bar. It can be played with pending orders: it would make sense to buy at 7,125 to add to existing long positions, or sell the broad index at 7,080.

Today, the first half of the day is expected to be quite eventful, with economic data that could influence market sentiment.

Key indicators reflecting the state of business activity in the Eurozone, and in particular in the locomotive of the European economy—Germany—will be in focus. The release of the Eurozone business sentiment index from the reputable ZEW Institute is expected. This is a leading indicator, as it reflects business expectations for future economic trends. An increase in the index typically signals rising optimism and a willingness among entrepreneurs to invest and expand production, while its decline may indicate growing concerns and potential slowdowns.

Simultaneously, similar data will be released for Germany. The ZEW business sentiment index for Germany, as well as the current situation index, will provide a more detailed understanding of the current state of affairs in Europe's largest economy.

As for the pound, today's morning session will be very important. Two fundamental macroeconomic indicators will be the focus of experts: the employment rate and changes in average wages. The unemployment rate is traditionally considered the main indicator of economic activity. Its decline usually signals a thriving labor market, increased demand for skilled professionals, and, consequently, higher consumer spending.

Reports on changes in average wages are also particularly important. A wage increase exceeding the expected inflation rate could confirm concerns about the sustainability of price growth. The Bank of England is currently analyzing trends in average wage levels very carefully, as these levels directly affect the purchasing power of the population and, therefore, consumer activity. If income growth outpaces inflation, it could serve as a strong argument for a stricter monetary policy aimed at curbing inflationary risks.

If the data matches economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turn out to be significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.1791, which could lead to an increase of the euro to around 1.1822 and 1.1848;
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.1762, which could lead to a decline of the euro to around 1.1730 and 1.1707;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.3540, which could lead to an increase of the pound to around 1.3567 and 1.3596;
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.3506, which could lead to a decline of the pound to around 1.3477 and 1.3450;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of level 159.13, which could lead to an increase of the dollar to around 159.36 and 159.60;
• Sell on a breakout of level 158.87, which could lead to a decline of the dollar to around 158.57 and 158.28;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1789 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1770 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3532 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3507 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.7186 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.7162 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3654 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3637 on a return to this level;