The labor market report is the first of three key releases ahead of the BoE meeting. Stronger-than-expected data may increase the case for a more cautious approach to easing policy, while evidence of further cooling would strengthen dovish pressure on the central bank.

Traders will focus on several components. Wage growth is foremost: the BoE views pay as a key indicator of persistent domestic inflationary pressure. Despite gradual cooling in the economy, wage growth remains elevated and well above rates consistent with a 2% inflation target. If average earnings including bonuses again beat forecasts (or show only modest slowing), that would bolster the argument for the BoE to delay policy easing at upcoming meetings.

Preliminary forecasts call for average weekly earnings including bonuses to rise to 4.5% year-on-year (from 4.4%), the highest reading since last November. Excluding bonuses, wages are expected to hold near the prior month at 3.4%.

Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.9%, while claimant counts are expected to rise by 28,000—a sizable flow, slightly below May's 31.2k but still high. If, contrary to consensus, claimant growth falls to 10–7k, the pound would receive notable support, especially if pay readings are in the green.

On Wednesday, the market will get June CPI data. The headline CPI is forecast to slow to 2.7% year-on-year, the weakest since March last year after two months at 2.8%. Market attention will concentrate less on the headline number than on core inflation and, particularly, services inflation—metrics the BoE regards as the most reliable gauges of persistent domestic price pressure.

Core CPI is expected to moderate slightly to 2.5% from 2.6%. Services inflation came in at 3.6% in May, up from 3.4%; it is forecast to dip to 3.5% in June. If services inflation accelerates again, that would materially support the pound even if the headline CPI prints in the red.

Finally, on Friday, July 24, the UK will publish retail sales data for June. While this report typically exerts less market influence than employment or inflation, in the current environment it will help assess the resilience of consumer demand—a key driver of the UK economy.

May's retail report was strong, with sales rising 1.2% month-on-month after a drop in April, supported by warm weather, seasonal promotions, and stronger online activity. The consensus now expects a much more modest 0.2% monthly increase. Leading indicators nonetheless point to continued solid consumer activity in June—boosted by warm weather and the World Cup, which lifted online, hospitality, and leisure spending—so Friday's print could surprise to the upside and reinforce the view that domestic demand remains resilient, reducing urgency for rapid policy easing.

Nonetheless, the Friday release is unlikely to be a standalone driver for the pound. It will complement the broader fundamental picture if labor and inflation data resonate — i.e., surprise in the same direction. If all three releases confirm economic resilience, the probability of a more cautious BoE stance on easing would rise. If the data is uniformly weak, markets will gain fresh grounds to increase dovish expectations for the central bank.

Technically, GBP/USD on the daily chart sits between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands and trades above all Ichimoku lines, which show a bullish "parade of lines" signal. On the four-hour chart, the pair has failed for a second session to clear resistance at 1.3470 (the H4 middle Bollinger line). Consider long positions only once buyers secure a close above that resistance, which would open a path to the next barrier at 1.3550 (the H4 and D1 upper Bollinger line).

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

Meanwhile, the market continues to watch the actions of the largest BTC-holding company, Strategy, closely. For a long time, Michael Saylor's company strategy served as an indicator of confidence for retail traders and institutions: if Strategy kept buying, it signaled that it knew what it was doing. However, Strategy recently carried out its first Bitcoin sale due to liquidity problems. The price of "digital gold" remains below the cost of mining as well as below Strategy's average purchase price. CryptoQuant said that Strategy's decision to sell bitcoin was correct, but that the company's overall strategy is still far from perfect. CryptoQuant analysts noted that Michael Saylor lacks a clear rule for when to buy Bitcoin to replenish reserves and when to sell to top up liquidity for dividend payments on common and preferred shares. In short, Strategy's trades are chaotic — something we have warned traders about more than once.

At the same time, Grayscale's experts said Strategy's Bitcoin selling could help form a market "bottom." This step should help restore investor confidence in the company's stock. However, in our view, the more frequently Strategy resorts to selling Bitcoin, the more the market will be convinced that the company's long?term strategy is flawed. Michael Saylor's company long adhered to a "never sell Bitcoin" principle and broke that rule in 2026, which indicates a mistake. As a result, investors are likely to be more cautious going forward, and purchases of "digital gold" will be made with greater prudence.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full?fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been tested. We do not believe the downtrend will end there. The last bearish FVG was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily timeframe, so this zone acts as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is in the second leg of its correction, but sell trades remain more attractive because any rally is, a priori, just a correction.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

A downtrend that began in August last year continues to form on the daily timeframe. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of its completion for either bitcoin or ether. The price has left the sideways channel, so the flat can be considered finished. A deviation of the upper band of the sideways channel never formed, so there were no grounds to open short positions. A new leg of correction is expected after a buy signal forms on the 4-hour timeframe. On the daily timeframe, we advise waiting for the correction to finish rather than trading against the trend.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

The futures market at CME has all but ruled out a July rate hike at the FOMC meeting on July 28–29. The probability of the funds rate staying at 3.5–3.75% is 85.6%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point hike is only 14.4%. A week ago, the probability of a July increase was 45%.

However, the view for September is markedly different. Markets price the probability of unchanged policy in September at 39.7%, a 25-basis-point hike at 52.6%, and a 50-basis-point move at 7.7%. According to CME, traders see roughly equal odds of a September hike and more than a 70% probability of at least one hike by December.

New York Fed chair Kevin Warsh maintains hawkish rhetoric, insisting on low tolerance for elevated inflation, while offering no precise timing for tighter policy. His aggressive tone contrasts with slowing June inflation. Two-year US Treasury yields have already hit a 15-month high, reflecting market confidence in a policy repricing and boosting the appeal of US debt, which in turn supports capital inflows.

The University of Michigan report showed one-year inflation expectations in July fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in June, while five-to-ten-year expectations held at 3.3%. This suggests markets still price persistent medium-term inflationary pressure.

This week, the main driver for the US dollar is the situation in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the US completed a ninth consecutive series of strikes on Iranian targets, including command posts, air defense systems, missile launchers, and naval assets. Tehran has struck back at US bases in neighboring countries.

President Trump announced a renewal of a maritime blockade of Iran and said the US will take control of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington intends to call itself the "guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and to levy 20% of the cost of all cargo transits to cover security expenses.

US objectives extend beyond concerns over Iran's nuclear program. They aim for fundamental geopolitical control over the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for global oil shipments. Control of that route would give the US leverage over global energy flows and direct influence on world oil prices. Iranian forces, for their part, have warned the strait will be unsafe for a single drop of oil or gas while US actions continue in the region.

Markets reacted as expected: in the morning of July 20, Brent on ICE topped $90 per barrel for the first time in more than a month, briefly reaching $91.22. Rising oil exerts a dual effect on the dollar—it fuels inflation expectations and raises the odds of Fed tightening while also increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

The coming days will be defined by escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East. As the conflict intensifies, the dollar is likely to remain protected by safe-haven flows and an inflation impulse from higher oil. There are no signs yet of a durable reversal, but extreme positioning and technical resistance argue for caution.

A packed week places markets between several strong drivers: the ECB rate decision and ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference, a string of quarterly reports from major tech and industrial players (including Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, and Intel), and key macro from Asia — from China's LPR to Japan's CPI.

Geopolitical flare-ups around the US and Iran injected a fresh impulse into oil and rekindled inflation expectations, hitting the semiconductor complex. The appearance of China's Kimi K3 model from Moonshot AI amplified volatility across assets from chips to crypto. At the same time, leadership in market cap is shifting between Apple and Nvidia.

Week of decisive signals: ECB, tech earnings, and trading opportunities

The week of 20 July is packed with market movers: major policy decisions, corporate results, and Asian data that can rattle multiple asset classes.

ECB and rates: what to expect

The European Central Bank announces its policy decision on 23 July. Derivatives markets are nearly unanimous — the odds that the deposit rate will remain at 2.25% are about 99%.

Recall the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp in June — its first hike since 2023 — citing rising inflation expectations amid geopolitical tension and high commodity prices. Christine Lagarde said in Sintra that "all the conditions for rate hikes were met."

The focus will be Lagarde's press conference: markets want to know whether a further move could come as soon as September. Reuters reports five Governing Council members prefer postponing further action until September, in part because of uncertainty around proposed US tariffs on EU imports. Eurosystem staff projections published in June imply average inflation of 3.0% in 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027.

Large corporate reports in focus

Earnings season is equally busy. Alphabet and Tesla report Q2 results on 22 July — their numbers could set the tone for the tech sector and the wider market.

Alphabet enters the week after a strong Q1 (revenue $109.9bn, +20% y/y). Investors will watch whether Google Cloud momentum persists and whether ad revenues remain resilient as AI products roll out.

Tesla — down about 15% year-to-date — is under scrutiny for automotive revenue dynamics; the comparable quarter a year ago saw a 16% decline in auto revenue.

Also reporting this week: IBM, Intel, and battery giant CATL — results that may sway sentiment across semiconductors, electronics, and autos.

Asia data: China LPR and Japan CPI

The People's Bank of China is widely expected to keep the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday, 20 July (at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively) — a 14th consecutive month of stability, per a Reuters poll of 23 market participants. Citi analysts note, however, that a 10bp cut could still happen "as early as July" as part of gradual easing.

Japan's national CPI for June is due Friday, 24 July. Headline inflation was 1.5% y/y in May, while the Bank of Japan's key rate remains at 0.5%. Most economists expect policy to tighten later this year, but not at this stage.

Trading tools mentioned in this note are available on the InstaForex platform. To react quickly to market events, open an InstaForex account and download the mobile app to trade from any device.

Oil shock, chip crash: markets repriced by geopolitics

Asian markets opened Monday in the red as a renewed US–Iran escalation pushed Brent above $90/bbl and intensified selling in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. The result is another bout of volatility after weeks in which markets erased trillions of dollars of market value.

In early Asian trade, Brent gained roughly 3% and pierced $90/bbl for the first time since mid-June — extending a weekly rally of about 15.9%, the sharpest run since April. WTI also climbed, up roughly 2.4%.

The pressure stems from a series of US strikes on Iranian targets — Washington says the actions are aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities used to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts warn of the risk of global crude stock draws by September and cite Brent targets in the $95–$105/bbl range.

The energy shock hit while the semiconductor sector was already in the midst of a severe correction. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 20% from its June 22 record high last week, formally entering bear-market territory. For the week to July 18, the index dropped about 10% — the largest weekly decline since April 2025.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 plunged by over 4,100 points intraday on Friday and finished the session down about 6.18%, with Kioxia and Tokyo Electron among the hardest hit names. South Korea's KOSPI closed down 6.37%, pressured by falls in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Bitcoin recovers to $64k after sell-off sparked by Kimi K3

On Saturday, Bitcoin staged a partial recovery, trading around $64,000 after a sharp drop on Friday when investors fled risk amid sell-offs in the semiconductor and broader tech complex.

The panic wave followed the release of a new Chinese AI model, Kimi K3 from Moonshot AI, an open model with some 2.8 trillion parameters that, according to Forklog, outperformed leading Western systems on programming tasks.

Traders have already dubbed the event the "Kimi moment," drawing parallels with the DeepSeek shock in early 2025, when a single session erased hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap from chipmakers.

Friday's impact was quick and global: the KOSPI plunged by more than 6%, the Nikkei 225 dropped by over 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by roughly 4%. The Nasdaq 100 declined by nearly 2%, with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel among the losers. Bitcoin did not withstand the broad risk?off move and fell to $62,516 before finding support.

By Saturday morning, the crypto benchmark had recovered some losses and returned to roughly $64,000, notching about a 1.7% gain from Friday's lows, according to Kraken data. The wider crypto market followed Bitcoin higher and posted modest gains, although weekend trading volumes remained subdued.

KuCoin analysts note that in July 2026, Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a levered instrument closely tied to the AI investment cycle, jumping on news about Korean chips and falling on breakthroughs in Chinese models.

Short-lived leadership change: Apple briefly overtakes Nvidia

A small morning drama played out on the exchanges on Friday: Nvidia shares slipped by roughly 3.5–3.9% in early trade, while Apple's stock held steady. That was enough for Apple to reclaim, for a brief period, the title of the world's most valuable public company. Reuters reported Apple's market cap at about $4.88 trillion at the peak, while Nvidia's fell to roughly $4.86 trillion.

Forbes noted the drop in Nvidia was closer to 3.9%, putting its market value near $4.82 trillion before part of the loss was recovered. By the close, Nvidia had moved back ahead: Fox Business reported Nvidia's market cap around $4.92 trillion versus Apple's $4.89 trillion. CNBC similarly described the morning reshuffle: Apple briefly passed Nvidia at the open, but leadership switched again by the close.

The skirmish illustrates how tight valuations are between the two tech giants — small percentage moves in one name can change the leadership picture.

Why it matters

Apple has gained roughly 23% year-to-date in 2026, outpacing the broad market and its fellow Magnificent Seven members. Investors value Apple's relatively conservative capex profile and its ability to monetize AI through a large services ecosystem and device base.

Nvidia looks relatively weaker this year within the chip cohort: after June's sell-off, the stock traded nearer $195 in early July. The company had been the leader, surpassing Microsoft in June 2025 and reaching a $5 trillion market cap in October that year.

Trading instruments referenced in this note are available on the InstaForex platform. To take advantage of market moves, open a trading account with InstaForex and download the company's mobile app for convenient access to trades.

The wave picture remains bullish. The last completed downward wave did not break the prior low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous high. Thus, bulls continue their advance. In my view, the 2026 bearish impulse is complete; only geopolitics may prevent bulls from pressing on. Even then, geopolitical developments are likely to produce only a corrective pullback.

The information flow on Friday was rather weak, yet the pound held up, unlike the euro, and continued to perform strongly. Despite no signs from the Bank of England of imminent policy tightening, the pound remains in demand, which I find logical. It is unclear why the euro cannot display similar strength, but the market is the arbiter. The Middle East conflict is again intensifying: The United States and Iran have been striking one another daily for more than a week. Talks are not merely paused this time; they have effectively stopped. Donald Trump is reportedly considering a broader range of strikes on Iran and is redeploying new military forces to the Middle East. All this suggests the conflict is likely to expand rather than end soon. Oil is rising again almost every day, so the situation is reverting to familiar patterns. Why is the dollar not rising? Because the market largely priced that factor in during the spring. I note that although the euro is not showing positive momentum, it is also not falling rapidly, which suggests the market is not fearful of a prolonged US–Iran war.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD bounced off the 23.6% correction level of 1.3538, reversed in favor of the greenback and closed below the 1.3467–1.3482 zone. That leaves room for a deeper decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level of 1.3409. A close back above 1.3467–1.3482 will reopen the path for a further rise in the pound. No divergence is apparent today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The non-commercial category's positioning became less bearish over the last reporting week but remains bearish. Long contracts held by speculators rose by 6,521, while short contracts fell by 10,129. The gap between long and short positions now stands at about 51,000 versus 122,000. Bears have dominated in recent months. However, given the changed information backdrop, this dominance now raises questions.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, developments will depend less on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank action and more on the duration, scale, and consequences of the Middle East war. In recent weeks, the market had repositioned for peace, but US-Iran talks collapsed before they really began. It is not certain they will resume soon.

Macroeconomic calendar for the US and the UK:

On July 20, the economic calendar contains no items of interest. Economic news will not influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD outlook and trader guidance:

Sells were possible on a rejection from the 1.3526–1.3543 zone on the hourly chart with a target at 1.3454–1.3457. That target has been reached. New sell orders are appropriate on a close below 1.3454–1.3457 with a target of 1.3382. Buys are appropriate on a close above 1.3454–1.3457 with a target of 1.3526–1.3543.

Fibonacci level grids were built from 1.3457–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Semiconductor and hyperscaler index dynamics

The S&P 500 itself feels considerably healthier than its previous favorites. The broad index closed below its 50-day moving average after two weeks of declines, yet the equal-weighted S&P finished at a record high. That signals healthy breadth — the sell-off is not market-wide but concentrated in one overheated segment.

The main beneficiary of the rotation was Apple. The company briefly overtook Nvidia in market value, rising to $4.9 trillion. Investors exiting overheated chip stocks found a new haven — especially after Beijing authorised Apple to roll out Apple Intelligence in China, a move that should accelerate revenue growth.

Retail traders are shifting priorities as well. The long love affair between retail investors and the Magnificent Seven is cooling. Although the group still represents roughly 36% of S&P 500 market cap, investors are increasingly hunting for the "next AI superstar" among less hyped names rather than continuing to add to Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Tesla.

It's not all one-way. The Magnificent Seven are lagging the broader market for the first time in years, which is a rare signal given they have driven the market for much of the recent run. Societe Generale thinks the rotation will likely be short-lived: the bank has raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, implying roughly a further 6% gain from current levels.

Earnings season will add fuel to the story. Next week, results are due from GM, Alphabet, IBM, Tesla, Intel, and Verizon. Meanwhile, the market's gains are increasingly concentrated: analysts estimate that just 13 issuers will account for half of S&P 500 revenue growth over the next four years. The problem is not necessarily an overvalued index — it's that the index's fate rests on a handful of names.

Bulls remain in control of equities, but they are waiting for a clear signal from corporate profits before pushing the benchmarks to new highs. Will the earnings season justify elevated expectations? Time will tell.

Technically, the daily chart shows that there was an opening gap down and a bar with a long lower wick. A break below its low at 7,430 would be a reason to add to short positions.

Analysis:

The downward trend that started at the end of January this year has led the quotes of the major currency pair to accumulate potentially reversal zones of various scales. Since the end of last month, the price has predominantly been moving sideways along the previously broken support level, which has turned into resistance.

Forecast:

In the coming days, a continuation of the general sideways trend of the pair is expected within a price range between the nearest opposing zones. In the first days, an upward flat is quite likely. There may be pressure on the upper boundary of the resistance zone. A resumption of the downward movement can be expected by the end of the week.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.1470/1.1520

Support:

• 1.1230/1.1180

Recommendations:

Buying: possible in fractional volumes, risky.

Selling: will become preferable after confirmed reversal signals appear in the resistance area.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

The quotes of the major pair of the Japanese yen against the US dollar continue to form the upward flat that started at the end of April this year. The unfinished segment of the main rate has been counting from the beginning of July. Over the last two weeks, a corrective part (B) has been forming in the structure. At the time of analysis, it is close to completion.

Forecast:

In the coming days, the full completion of the upward vector of movement is expected near the calculated resistance. In the first couple of days, sideways movement is not ruled out. Further, a decline towards the support boundaries may occur. An increase in volatility and a resumption of the upward trend can be expected in the second half or next week. Upon reversal, a brief breakout below the lower boundary of the calculated zone is not excluded.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 164.00/164.50
• 162.40/162.90

Support:

• 161.60/161.10

Recommendations:

Selling: has low potential, risky.

Buying: will become relevant after the corresponding signals appear in the trading systems you use.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

The trend of the pair of the British pound against the Japanese yen has been directed towards the upper part of the price chart for the past year. The unfinished section of this wave in the main rate has been counting since the end of April. The final part (C) of this movement is being formed. The need for an opposing correction has emerged.

Forecast:

In the coming days of the next week, movement of the pair quotes along the resistance zone is expected. In this zone, conditions for a directional change can be anticipated. A beginning of price decline can be expected by the end of the week, with a sharp increase in volatility. Synchronization of the reversal time with the release of important news blocks is highly probable.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 218.80/219.30

Support:

• 216.60/216.10

Recommendations:

Selling: trading conditions are unfavorable. High probability of incurring losses.

Buying: can be used in trading upon the appearance of confirmed signals in the calculated support area.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

In the market of the major pair of the Canadian dollar, a bullish wave continues to take shape, counting from the beginning of May this year. Since the end of June, a corrective section (B) has been formed in this wave model, in the form of an elongated flat. Its structure appears to be formed, but at the time of analysis, no reversal signals were observed on the chart.

Forecast:

Throughout the week, a continuation of the overall sideways direction of movement is expected. In the next few days, the conclusion of the decrease near the calculated support is more likely. Subsequently, a change in trend and a resumption of bullish movement can be anticipated. A breakout beyond the boundaries of the price corridor in the coming week is unlikely.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.4160/1.4220

Support:

• 1.4000/1.3950

Recommendations:

Buying: will become relevant after the appearance of confirmed signals in the calculated support zone.

Selling: has very low potential, risky.

NZD/USD

Brief Analysis:

Since the beginning of this year, quotes in the major pair of the New Zealand dollar have been forming a downward wave. Over the past three weeks, the quotes have been moving against the trend, forming a correction of the last segment of the trend. This movement is approaching the final phase of formation.

Weekly Forecast:

In the coming days of the upcoming week, a continuation of the sideways directional movement with an upward vector is anticipated. A brief pressure on the upper level of resistance is not excluded. Subsequently, a reversal and the beginning of a decline can be expected. The highest volatility may be expected closer to the weekend.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.5890/0.5940

Support:

• 0.5770/0.5720

Recommendations:

Buying: has low potential, carries increased risk.

Selling: may become the main direction for trading once corresponding reversal signals appear.

Gold

Analysis:

Since January, a sideways flat structure has been forming on the gold chart, resembling a descending "pennant." The unfinished trending segment of this wave started in mid-June. After breaking through a strong potential reversal zone, an intermediate pullback has formed within its structure, which is not yet complete at the time of analysis.

Forecast:

In the next couple of days, sideways movement of gold prices, along the resistance zone, is likely. In the second half of the week, a resumption of the bearish vector of movement is expected, with prices declining to the calculated support boundaries.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 4060.0/4080.0

Support:

• 3900.0/3880.0

Recommendations:

Selling: will be possible after corresponding signals appear in the resistance area.

Buying: risky, may lead to losses.

Notes: In the simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A-B-C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed on each timeframe. Expected movements are shown as dotted lines.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of movements of the instruments over time!

Meanwhile, one of Bitcoin's ardent supporters, Tim Draper, stated that his forecast of $250,000 per coin remains valid. Draper acquired about 30,000 Bitcoins back in 2014 at an average price of around $632 per coin. These coins are now valued at $1.9 billion, and Draper continues to wait for Bitcoin to rise to $250,000. Interestingly, the investor previously expected this milestone to be reached in 2022 or 2023. His "industry colleagues," Adam Back and Darrin Fink, also expect Bitcoin to show a new bullish rally. However, Back anticipates Bitcoin to reach between $500,000 and $1,000,000, while Fink expects growth to $700,000. The forecasts remain essentially unchanged; only the timelines for their realization are constantly being pushed forward. Thus, every trader can analyze and forecast as well as the head of BlackRock. They just need to say that Bitcoin will be worth a million dollars and wait.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as descending, and the CHOCH line is now at $82,800, as a new LL (Lower Low) was formed. Only above this level can it be considered that the downward trend is over. Since there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range, which serves as the only POI for sales.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is in a downward trend; however, the overall correction is not yet complete. After liquidity was taken on the buy side, a rise began, as we had warned. Recently, only small, local FVGs have been forming, and the reaction to them has generally been very weak. The last formed FVG is bullish. The price reacted to it, providing traders the opportunity to open longs. However, we remind you that any current growth in Bitcoin is a correction. Whether to trade the correction is a decision each trader makes for themselves. We also note the liquidity pool below the trend line, which the price is likely to revisit with a 90% probability. We expect a new decline.

Recommendations for Trading BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), though this level has essentially already been tested. However, we do not believe that the downward trend will finish here. The last bearish FVG pattern formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range on the daily timeframe, so this area represents a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues its second wave of correction, but sell trades remain more attractive, as any rise now is inherently a correction.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• CHOCH – break of trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Area of price inefficiency. The price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.
• OB – Order block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to absorb liquidity for forming their position in the opposite direction.

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday. Aside from the producer price index in Germany, which has no chance of being noted by traders. Thus, volatility today may once again be low for both currency pairs, and traders will have nothing to react to throughout the day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is also nothing to highlight in terms of fundamental events on Monday. Recent statements from members of the FOMC indicated a softening of the American central bank's "hawkish" plans, at least for the next two meetings. Inflation in the U.S. has slowed from 4.2% to 3.5%, so there is hope for further decline without intervention from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank is unlikely to rush into raising the key interest rate in the coming months. In this case, the dollar loses another supporting factor. However, inflation and the Fed's decisions will depend on oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East.

The geopolitical backdrop remains steadily "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. have signed an agreement; however, too many important questions remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear issue," the war between Lebanon and Israel, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Theoretically, the market may fear a resumption of full-scale war; however, this is clearly not enough for the dollar to begin rising actively again. Moreover, Tehran and Washington have not completely exited the negotiation process. Although recent events in the Middle East demonstrate the fragility of any ceasefires between the United States and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is currently once again under blockade.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move very sluggishly, as no important events are expected today. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1461-1.1466, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. The euro cannot show significant growth and is leaning towards a new decline, while the British pound has been in an upward trend for three weeks but may continue to correct today.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued to correct on Friday after a sharp rise on Wednesday, as well as against a three-week upward trend. It can be said that the recent decline of the British currency is purely technical, similar to the preceding growth that began from the lower area of the sideways channel on the weekly timeframe. The British pound showed a quite logical rise in recent weeks, as the U.S. dollar has maximized its growth factors in 2026. Geopolitics cannot support the dollar forever, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and other central banks is currently shrouded in a fog of uncertainty due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Thus, in most cases, we observe movements that are rather difficult to explain. On Friday, the market ignored American data, while the UK event calendar was empty. The upward trend on the hourly timeframe remains, and the pound sterling at least is not stagnant, unlike the European currency.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe, a sell trading signal formed on Friday, which is unlikely to have generated profit for traders, as the movement that day was very weak. The price bounced off the area of 1.3456-1.3476, but failed to show any meaningful movement throughout the day.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues its three-week upward trend. We believe that the recent rise in the pound reflects a recovery toward fair value and is a technical movement justified by the sideways channel on higher timeframes. The trend line on the hourly timeframe has been redrawn and again supports the pound. Consolidation below it would allow the pair to start a new trend. We believe that a new dollar trend can only be expected if a full-scale war resumes in the Middle East.

On Monday, novice traders may open short positions on a price bounce from the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. A price consolidation above the area of 1.3456-1.3476 would allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.3587-1.3598. However, volatility may again be weak today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at the following levels: 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695. No significant events or publications are scheduled for Monday in the UK and the U.S. Thus, we are likely to experience a classic "boring Monday."

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in a sideways channel during Friday's session, as clearly seen on the hourly timeframe. Formally, the EUR/USD pair has an upward slope; however, in three weeks of upward trend, the growth of the European currency has been minimal. Both trend lines have been broken and are no longer relevant. Macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and the U.S. had no impact on traders' sentiments on Friday, and the overall volatility for the day did not exceed 30 pips. Thus, the market continues to remain stagnant. Overall, the current upward movement appears to be a correction ahead of a new strong decline. However, one must ask, what could justify the expectation of a new strengthening of the U.S. dollar? Only geopolitics and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy come to mind. The market could also buy the dollar even without reasons. Currently, there are no technical signs indicating a potential rise for the European currency.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Friday. The price failed to test any level or area throughout the day. Thus, there were no grounds for novice traders to open any positions.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, both trend lines have been broken and are no longer relevant. Considering all the market events and movements over the last few months, we believe the European currency should show confident growth—much stronger than it is now. However, in reality, the current upward movement is primarily a correction, and in recent weeks, the movement resembles a flat much more than a trend.

On Monday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.1363-1.1377 if the price bounces off the 1.1461-1.1466 area. Long positions can be opened with a target of 1.1527-1.1531 if the price consolidates above the area of 1.1461-1.1466. We would still not expect strong movements.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1363-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1466, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754. No significant events or publications are scheduled in the Eurozone and the U.S. on Monday. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to throughout the day, and movements may again be very weak.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

The GBP/USD currency pair showed volatility of 54 pips on Friday. This is the lowest value for the British pound. During the day, the pound sterling slightly declined; however, this movement did not affect the overall technical picture. Over the past few weeks, the pound has strengthened, but in the last few days it has corrected, as was logical and predictable. On Friday, there were no interesting events or reports from the UK, and in the US, several reports were released that the market paid no attention to. Most macroeconomic publications continue to be ignored. In our opinion, after completing the correction, the pair's rise will resume, as a long-term flat remains on higher timeframes, and price may continue moving from the lower boundary of the range to the upper one. This is purely a technical movement.

From a technical standpoint, the British pound continues its upward trend. The price managed to break through the 1.3465-1.3480 area and the Kijun-sen line, complicating the situation for the bulls. Now the British pound may continue to decline toward the 1.3369-1.3377 area and the Senkou Span B line. Consolidation above the area of 1.3465-1.3480 may trigger the resumption of the upward trend of recent weeks.

On the 5-minute timeframe, a sales signal was formally formed on Friday. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3465-1.3480 area and then consolidated below the critical line. However, for the remainder of the day, it failed to continue moving downwards and returned to its initial positions.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound indicate that non-commercial traders with sell positions have dominated the market for several months. The net position is negative, despite the long-term upward trend being maintained. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Geopolitics may support demand for the U.S. dollar in the near future. However, until a consolidation below the trend line occurs, we wouldn't expect a strong decline in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly seen on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains intact, as evidenced by the trend line. Recently, the price retested this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (as of July 14), the "Non-commercial" group opened 6,500 BUY contracts and closed 10,100 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 16,600 contracts over the week, which does not significantly affect the overall sentiment of professional players.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to correct after a three-week rise. The market continues to ignore geopolitics, and in recent weeks we have observed a technical rise backed by weak inflation data from the U.S. We would not be surprised if the British currency continues to strengthen, as on the daily timeframe it is heading toward the upper boundary of the range, which is located in the 1.3720-1.3800 range.

On July 20, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3334) and Kijun-sen (1.3450) lines may also provide signal sources. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to break even when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Monday, no significant events or publications are planned in the UK and the U.S. Thus, everything points to a dull Friday leading into a dull Monday. However, unlike the euro currency, the British pound has not been stagnant in recent weeks. Therefore, if any movement is to be expected, it will likely come from the pound.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting the area of 1.3369-1.3377 if the pair bounces from the area of 1.3450-1.3480. New long positions may be opened in case of consolidation above the area of 1.3465-1.3480 with a target of 1.3588.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded again on Friday as if at a funeral. Despite the release of several macroeconomic reports throughout the day, overall volatility was less than 30 pips. Consequently, the second estimate of European inflation, along with American reports on the construction sector and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, were ignored. By the way, the most interesting consumer sentiment index showed a quite striking value for July. While traders expected 51 points, the actual figure was 54.4. Thus, both traders had an opportunity to trade, and the dollar had a chance to rise. However, we saw neither. Volatility remains weak, and the European currency still cannot get off its knees (even though it has everything it needs to do so). On the hourly timeframe, a flat condition essentially remains. Despite the pair breaking the level of 1.1461 last week, we see that the upward trend has not yet begun.

From a technical perspective, the pair maintains a minimal bullish sentiment and is located above the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. Therefore, at least a weak upward movement may continue. However, the price has effectively returned to the sideways channel of 1.1362-1.1461, and the upward movement in recent weeks has been so weak that it is hard to speak of it as a trend.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Friday. At the start of the American trading session, the pair bounced off the critical line, but by then it was already clear there would be no movement, and the price was moving solely sideways. Thus, we do not see no reason to open trading positions.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated July 14. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains bullish but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been getting rid of the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar has temporarily acted as a "reserve currency." However, this process may have already been completed.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, but there are plenty of factors that could cause the American dollar to fall. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but once this factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to its previous state. And it may have already expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past months of dollar growth, the pair has not come significantly closer to this line.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 6,900, while the number of shorts increased by 3,300. Consequently, the net position increased by 3,600 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, a corrective upward trend is forming within a two-month downward trend, which resembles a flat much more. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving. The market continues to ignore many favorable factors for the euro, which is why the European currency cannot show significant growth. The movements of recent weeks appear to be preparation for a new decline...

On July 20, we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1461, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1417) and the Kijun-sen (1.1430). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price has moved in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Monday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the U.S. and the European Union. Traders will have nothing to react to today. Volatility may again be minimal.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions with a target of 1.1362 if the price consolidates below the Senkou Span B line. Long positions can be opened with targets of 1.1461 and 1.1480 if the pair bounces off the lines of the Ichimoku indicator.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Geopolitics

Geopolitics continues to play in favor of the dollar amid rising risk-averse sentiment. It seems that this fundamental factor will come to the forefront for EUR/USD traders in the coming days.

In the last two days, the situation surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated sharply, effectively returning to a phase of full-scale (not localized) confrontation. The catalyst for this new wave of escalation was the death of two American servicemen in Jordan due to Iranian missile and drone strikes. In response, the United States has conducted massive airstrikes for the eighth night, targeting military infrastructure, bridges, tunnels, and other facilities in Iran.

Tehran, in turn, has officially announced the suspension of its commitments under a peaceful memorandum of understanding, after which Iranian forces attacked U.S. military facilities in the region. Air raid sirens were also heard in Bahrain, while a desalination plant in Kuwait came under fire from Iranian missiles.

At the same time, both sides continue to exchange harsh statements, virtually ruling out a swift return to diplomatic resolution.

However, geopolitics is unlikely to drive a sustainable (this is the key word) decline in the EUR/USD pair. Judging by the market's reaction, traders still see the current escalation as part of a "strong bargaining" strategy: both sides are trying to strengthen their negotiating positions through a limited show of force while keeping the option of returning to indirect negotiations open. Certainly, such a scenario remains quite vulnerable amid the ongoing expansion of the conflict. But as long as the market does not see signs of uncontrolled escalation, EUR/USD retains the possibility of remaining within the bounds of the 14-figure.

Moreover, if signals about the resumption of mediation contacts emerge next week, risk-averse sentiment will significantly (and quite sharply) weaken, allowing buyers to once again test the resistance level of 1.1470 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the Kijun-sen line on the D1). Given Donald Trump's history of sharp reversals in similar situations, this outcome cannot be ruled out.

European Central Bank

On Thursday, July 23, the ECB will hold another meeting, which may trigger increased volatility in the EUR/USD pair. It can be confidently assumed that the central bank will keep all three key interest rates unchanged, implementing the basic and most expected scenario. Therefore, all market attention will be focused on the accompanying statement's rhetoric and comments from Christine Lagarde.

On the one hand, several factors support maintaining the status quo. Inflation in the Eurozone continues to gradually slow, core price pressures remain relatively stable, and economic growth still appears quite weak. Additionally, the ECB typically does not react to short-term price spikes in commodity markets (as we are currently observing), preferring to assess the likelihood of so-called secondary inflation effects.

On the other hand, recent events in the Middle East have significantly complicated the situation. A new escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, further heightening the risk of accelerating inflation in the Eurozone. Therefore, it is likely that the ECB will acknowledge the increased uncertainty and note that it will closely monitor the impact of the energy shock on inflation expectations and wage dynamics in the near future.

All of this suggests that the most likely scenario for the July meeting is a "hawkish pause." In other words, the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged, but Lagarde will likely express a relatively tough stance and will not signal the market about a probable end to the tightening cycle. In this context, the head of the central bank will certainly state that further decisions will depend entirely on incoming macroeconomic data and developments in the geopolitical situation.

In other words, the outcomes of the July ECB meeting may provide support to the euro; however, the potential for growth in the single currency may be limited if demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset persists in the market. In such a case, buyers of EUR/USD are unlikely to overcome the aforementioned resistance level of 1.1470.

Macroeconomic Data

Among the macroeconomic releases for the upcoming week, the most significant for EUR/USD will be the PMI indices (July 24) and the ZEW report (July 21), which will allow for an assessment of the current state of the eurozone economy and the sentiment of businesses and investors.

The ZEW Economic Expectations Index unexpectedly rose to 10.5 points in June (after a sharp decline to -10.5 points), returning to positive territory for the first time since February of this year. This result suggests that investors are beginning to factor in a gradual recovery of the German economy amid expectations of fiscal stimulus and reduced political uncertainty. However, the July report will be released in a more challenging external environment. On one hand, the launch of government investment programs in Germany may support these expectations. On the other hand, weak production dynamics, high energy costs, and a new wave of uncertainty due to the Middle Eastern conflict could weigh on them.

Nevertheless, most analysts believe that investors will maintain an optimistic outlook in July: the business sentiment index in Germany is expected to rise again—this time to 18 points.

As for the PMI, the focus will primarily be on the German and Eurozone indicators. The manufacturing activity index in Germany is expected to remain in expansion territory, rising to 50.6 (from 50.3). The German services PMI is also expected to increase to 49.0 (after a rise to 48.6 in June). If, contrary to forecasts, this figure enters the expansion territory, it will provide significant support for the euro. A similar dynamic is expected for the Eurozone PMI indices: a rise in the manufacturing sector is anticipated to 51.6, while the services sector is projected to reach 49.8.

Technical Overview

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair on the four-hour chart is positioned between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands, above the Kumo cloud, and between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. On the daily chart, the pair is situated between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands, below the Kumo cloud and between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. All of this indicates ongoing uncertainty: short-term indicators are not forming clear signals, and higher timeframes do not indicate an advantage for either side. In such conditions, the pair is likely to continue consolidating in the range of 1.1380 – 1.1470 in anticipation of new fundamental impulses.

The first wave of the energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East has subsided, but it is far too early to assume the worst is over. A second wave could begin as early as this autumn—and it may prove even more severe than the first.

When the conflict between Iran and the United States began, many countries still had strategic reserves of oil and natural gas. During the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, these reserves naturally began to decline. By the time a second wave of the crisis emerges, stockpiles may be significantly depleted. With winter approaching only a few months later, demand for fuel, oil, and natural gas is expected to increase, while supplies available to offset potential shortages could be limited.

Experts warn that if Iran and the United States fail to reach another ceasefire agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the situation could spiral out of control this autumn. Global oil inventories continue to decline even after the strait remained open for about a week. Naturally, that short period was insufficient to replenish strategic reserves.

It is also important to consider the production capacity of Middle Eastern countries, much of which has reportedly been damaged or destroyed by Iranian missile strikes. On one hand, a substantial share of the region's oil exports remains trapped in the Persian Gulf. On the other, Iran could also block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In addition, oil production and refining capacity across the Middle East have declined significantly.

According to analysts, the current situation is not substantially better than it was at the peak of the conflict in February and March. The ceasefire has collapsed, oil tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington continues to insist that maritime traffic will eventually resume by one means or another. In reality, however, the opposite appears to be occurring. The strait remains closed, another strategically important maritime route could also become blocked, and Donald Trump's repeated attempts to persuade Iran to return to negotiations and sign a new agreement have so far been unsuccessful.

Analysts also note that oil prices did not reach $200 per barrel during the spring and summer only because China reduced imports while the United States increased exports. If the conflict remains limited to disruptions in maritime shipping, the crisis is likely to develop more gradually. Several alternative export routes from the Middle East do exist, including Saudi Arabia's pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE's pipeline to Fujairah. However, many planned pipeline projects have yet to become fully operational, while further Iranian strikes against regional oil and gas infrastructure would deepen a crisis that already appears increasingly difficult to avoid.

Based on these factors, if Iran and the United States fail to reach an agreement, oil prices could quickly climb back above $100 per barrel and are likely to move considerably higher during the autumn and winter.

EUR/USD Wave Analysis

Based on the analysis, EUR/USD remains within a broader upward trend (see the lower chart), while in the shorter term it continues to develop within a downward trend segment. Current market conditions provide a reasonable opportunity to begin considering long positions. However, the pair may still decline toward the 1.13 level as part of wave 5 of wave C. Elliott Wave structures often produce unexpected developments, so attention should already be shifting toward potential buying opportunities.

GBP/USD Wave Analysis

The wave structure of GBP/USD has become relatively complex. At present, the pair has completed three downward waves, while EUR/USD may ultimately complete a five-wave decline. Consequently, the British pound may still form one additional downward wave, similar to the euro. However, this move could represent the second wave within a new bullish trend segment.

As a result, the difference between the wave structures of the euro and the pound is likely to remain relatively small and of limited significance. Therefore, I expect another corrective decline in the near term, followed by the beginning of a new upward trend, with the initial upward targets located in the 1.37–1.38 level.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex wave formations are difficult to trade and frequently change as new market data emerge.
2. If the market outlook is unclear, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. No market forecast is ever certain. Always use protective Stop-Loss orders to manage risk.
4. Wave analysis should be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

The pair remains under significant pressure amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, while the market has already fully priced in the recent change in the UK's leadership and yesterday's stronger-than-expected economic data. Most likely, the Bank of England, following the Federal Reserve's policy stance, which is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, will also refrain from raising interest rates. This continues to weigh on the pound's ability to sustain a stronger upward move.

From a technical perspective, the pair is testing the 1.3435 support level.

Technical Outlook and Trading Idea

The price is trading below the middle Bollinger Band, as well as below the 5-period and 14-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), whose bearish crossover has generated a sell signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining and has crossed below the 50 level. The Stochastic Oscillator has already entered oversold territory.

A confirmed break below the 1.3435 support level would open the way for a deeper decline. A potential entry point for short positions is 1.3424.

The GBP/USD pair has posted strong gains in recent weeks, which may mark the beginning of a new bullish trend. This week, the bears proved unable to capitalize on developments, even though the Middle East experienced two additional escalations and negotiations once again reached a deadlock.

Donald Trump has already revoked Iran's authorization to export oil under the peace agreement and reinstated restrictions on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz from its side. The United States has now been conducting strikes against Iran for nearly a week, while Donald Trump continues to announce additional military action. As we can see, there is no real ceasefire in place.

For now, traders do not believe the conflict will escalate into a full-scale war, as similar situations have occurred several times before. In reality, however, hostilities have already resumed. Nevertheless, the geopolitical factor was largely priced in between February and May. Therefore, only exceptionally significant developments in the Middle East are likely to encourage investors to buy the US dollar again based on its safe-haven status.

This week, bullish traders received an unexpected boost as US inflation slowed to 3.5%. Shortly afterward, Kevin Warsh refrained from promising further monetary tightening during his testimony before Congress, triggering another wave of disappointment among dollar bulls. As a result, there is no longer any certainty that the Federal Reserve will begin tightening monetary policy as early as September.

Moreover, by September, the market should have a much clearer picture of the conflict in the Middle East, autumn oil and natural gas prices ahead of winter, and how inflation responds to the evolving energy and geopolitical environment.

Initially, the market expected US inflation to continue rising unless the FOMC intervened. Later, concerns about further price increases eased as oil prices declined to around $70 per barrel. This week, however, oil climbed to the $85–87 range, while the renewed escalation in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices even higher.

If events develop according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil could return to the $100–120 per barrel range. Under such circumstances, any meaningful slowdown in inflation in either the United States or the eurozone would become highly unlikely. Conversely, if the situation develops according to a more optimistic scenario, oil prices could fall back to the $60–70 range, reducing the need for further monetary tightening.

Technical analysis indicates that the bulls remain in control and may continue their advance. Price first swept liquidity below the April 6 low and then below the March 31 low. Therefore, there were solid technical reasons to expect further strength in the pound over recent weeks.

Given that the US dollar still lacks compelling long-term bullish drivers, despite its impressive gains during 2026, I believe the bears are unlikely to regain control. In addition, Bullish Imbalance 23 formed last week, and price reacted to it twice, providing traders with opportunities to open long positions. Bearish Imbalance 21 has now been invalidated.

Therefore, I expect either a continuation of the pound's advance or a resumption of the uptrend following the corrective pullback observed over the past two trading sessions. I would also note that a new bullish imbalance formed on Thursday. However, it is relatively small, so I have not yet marked it on the chart. Even so, there is a price gap in the 1.3440–1.3460 level that could still attract market attention.

Friday's economic calendar was relatively quiet. No significant data were released in the United Kingdom, while several US reports had little impact on market sentiment. This week's trading was dominated by inflation data, which substantially weakened the outlook for the US dollar.

Overall, the broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect further long-term weakness in the US dollar. Neither the conflict between Iran and the United States nor the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 has materially altered that outlook.

Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven appeal, but the conflict has already moved beyond its most active phase. Although the Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates during 2026, which is supportive for the dollar, tighter monetary policy would also slow economic growth and weaken the labor market.

It should also be remembered that Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump to lead the FOMC specifically because he was expected to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy than Jerome Powell. Consequently, in my opinion, any appreciation of the US dollar should be viewed as temporary rather than the beginning of a sustainable long-term trend.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

The economic calendar for July 20 contains no significant scheduled releases. Therefore, macroeconomic data are not expected to influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Following liquidity sweeps below the two most recent swing lows, bulls regained control of the market.

The pound could still resume its decline toward 1.3007, the level that would invalidate the broader bullish trend, but such a move would require fresh bearish technical signals. Since Bearish Imbalance 21 has already been invalidated, no such signal is currently present.

The bullish case is supported by two liquidity sweeps as well as Bullish Imbalance 23. Price has already reacted to Imbalance 23, while the next upside targets are the highs of May 1 (1.3656) and January 27 (1.3867).

A new Bullish Imbalance also formed yesterday following Wednesday's strong rally in the pound.

The EUR/USD pair remains within the local bearish impulse that began on April 17, while over the past three weeks bulls have managed only to push bears back slightly. The euro's gains have been limited. The bulls have made their move, but the pair's further prospects will depend on geopolitical developments, inflation data, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

This week, it became known that US inflation slowed to 3.5% year-on-year, rather than the 3.8% expected by the market, significantly reducing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening in the near term. I do not believe the Fed will abandon the idea of raising interest rates altogether, but inflation nevertheless slowed by 0.7 percentage points in a single month.

This week also featured testimony by Federal Reserve President Kevin Warsh before Congress. As I had expected, Warsh's rhetoric remained broadly unchanged from the Fed's press conference a month ago, and he once again emphasized that elevated inflation remains a concern in the United States. However, the market had anticipated more hawkish remarks and did not receive them. As a result, the US dollar neither gained meaningful support this week nor suffered significant losses. For the past three weeks, neither bulls nor bears have shown much willingness to take decisive action, leaving the pair largely range-bound.

It is also worth recalling that the latest US labor market data remained relatively weak. Job creation continues to disappoint. Over the past three months, the number of new jobs has been approximately 100,000 below market expectations. As a result, the combination of slowing labor market momentum and easing inflation is forcing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to weigh any decision on further monetary tightening much more carefully.

Geopolitical developments have temporarily faded into the background. Tehran and Washington have once again violated the terms of the ceasefire agreement reached on June 17, but this came as little surprise to market participants. Donald Trump signed an executive order revoking authorization for Iranian oil exports, reinstated restrictions on Iranian shipping, while Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked vessels attempting to transit the waterway.

The market barely reacted to the end of the conflict and therefore is unlikely to respond strongly to its renewed escalation. We did not see the widely expected weakening of the US dollar following the easing of geopolitical tensions, nor did we witness sustained euro strength after the European Central Bank tightened monetary policy. Bears remain resilient despite both the fundamental and geopolitical backdrop. Now that geopolitical tensions are escalating again, bears have at least a formal justification for launching another wave of selling. In my opinion, however, traders are pricing in geopolitical developments for the third time, including events that have not yet occurred.

The current technical picture continues to indicate that the bearish impulse that began on April 17 remains intact. Bearish Imbalance 17 has not yet been filled, while Imbalance 18 was invalidated following weak US labor market data. No bullish patterns have formed, and none are likely to appear in the coming days as the market remains largely directionless.

Therefore, bulls may continue the corrective advance toward Imbalance 17, but there is currently no clear technical basis for trading this move. It is also worth noting that liquidity has been taken below the August 1 low (marked by the red line on the chart). Shortly afterward, liquidity was also taken above the July 2 high. Consequently, bears now have even more reasons to resume selling pressure. However, it should be remembered that liquidity grabs are not trading patterns in themselves.

Friday's economic calendar was once again relatively quiet. The eurozone released its June inflation report, while the United States published data on Housing Starts and Building Permits. These releases had virtually no impact on the US dollar, much like most economic reports this week, with the exception of inflation data.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to resume buying the euro in 2026, and even the renewed conflict in the Middle East has not materially changed that outlook. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies—which contributed to the sharp decline in the US dollar last year—remain largely unchanged. At present, I see few strong fundamental factors supporting the US dollar despite the FOMC's hawkish stance.

EUR/USD has now approached a series of significant lows and swing points where liquidity may be taken, potentially providing the catalyst for a reversal of the current bearish impulse.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

The economic calendar for July 20 contains no significant scheduled releases. As a result, macroeconomic data are unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. Although the fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears four months ago, the broader trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete.

Therefore, bulls may begin a fresh advance after liquidity has been taken below clearly established lows. However, opening long positions at this stage is not advisable. Traders should first wait for confirmed bullish technical patterns to emerge.

At present, the only meaningful technical structure available is Bearish Imbalance 17. Liquidity has already been taken around the latest swing levels, while the fundamental case for further US dollar appreciation remains questionable. Therefore, I continue to expect a bullish recovery, but it is important to wait for at least some technical confirmation of this scenario. Alternatively, traders may wait for a new sell signal to emerge within Bearish Imbalance 17.

EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1443, above the 21-day SMA and rebounding within the uptrend channel formed since July 13.

If the euro consolidates above 1.1438 in the coming hours, we could expect it to continue rising until it reaches 1.1472, where the 6/8 Murray level is located. Ultimately, EUR/USD could reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around 1.1520.

Conversely, if the euro falls below the 21 SMA at 1.1438, the outlook could turn negative, and we could expect the downtrend to continue until EUR/USD reaches the lower band of the uptrend channel and, ultimately, the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1352.

If the euro faces strong resistance around the 200 EMA at 1.1472, this could be considered an opportunity to open short positions. The strong Murray 6/8 resistance level is also located around this level, which could act as a significant barrier for the euro.

Given that the Eagle indicator is entering overbought territory, we could technically expect the instrument to continue falling in the coming days. Should EUR/USD reach resistance levels such as the 6/8 Murray level or the upper band of the uptrend channel, this could suggest an opportunity to sell.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,900, pulling back after reaching the 1/8 Murray key level, which acts as a strong resistance barrier. Bitcoin is now trading below the 200 and below the 21 moving averages, which gives us a negative outlook for the coming days.

If, in the coming hours, Bitcoin breaks below the 0/8 Murray level and below the uptrend channel formed since June 27, we could expect the decline to continue, potentially reaching the -1/8 Murray level around $59,350.

Conversely, if Bitcoin consolidates above $62,500 in the coming hours, this could be seen as an opportunity to resume its uptrend, as it is currently reaching a key support level that coincides with the lower band of the uptrend channel. We could expect a recovery in the coming days, with Bitcoin potentially returning toward the 1/8 Murray level.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a bearish signal, we must be cautious, as a break below $62,500 could send Bitcoin down toward the psychological level of $60,000 or even back to the June 30 lows around $58,000.

As long as the price remains within the uptrend channel, a technical bounce above $62,500 will be seen as an opportunity to take long positions.

On the surface, everything looks benign: the S&P 500 is trading upwards for a second consecutive day, inflation is cooling faster than expected, and Wall Street traders have sharply pared back bets on Fed tightening. Behind the rally, however, there are details that temper the optimism.

Producer prices rose by 4.7% y/y in June, below consensus. Falling energy costs eased price pressures, Treasury yields declined, and money markets now push out a policy rate increase to the end of the year (not before December). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments that the AI investment boom will exert upward pressure on prices were read by markets as further justification for keeping rates on hold in July. Follow the link for more details.

US dollar index pauses in consolidation after slide

The US dollar index (USDX) ends the week consolidating around a key short-term support at 100.49 (200-EMA on the 4-hour chart) after a sharp drop driven by weaker-than-expected US inflation data. Monthly CPI fell by 0.4% (the largest monthly decline since April 2020), annual CPI slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%, and PPI also disappointed — a combination markets interpreted as a reason for a Fed pause.

These prints cut the odds of a July rate hike to roughly 10% on CME FedWatch, and the dollar lost more than 1% over two sessions. Economists caution that the dollar's decline could be overdone: Middle East geopolitical risk and relative US economic resilience keep the possibility of a rebound alive. Follow the link for more details.

US consumer prices see biggest monthly drop in six years

US consumer prices declined sharply in June, marking the biggest monthly drop in six years, slightly reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve and lowering the odds of immediate further rate hikes.

CPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month (consensus -0.1%, May +0.5%). Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% year-on-year (consensus 3.8%, May 4.2%). Core CPI (ex food and energy) rose by 2.6% year-on-year (consensus 2.8%, May 2.9%). Follow the link for more details.

Today, on Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark of the US market, is in a bullish consolidation amid the risk of further escalation between the US and Iran.

The US military has continued airstrikes on Iran for six consecutive nights, including an attack on an empty oil tanker bound for Kharg Island, part of a renewed naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran, in turn, is actively striking US military bases in the region, heightening fears of a return to full?scale war and keeping geopolitical risk levels elevated. This factor continues to have a significant impact on the oil market.

In Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, local authorities reported strikes on civilian infrastructure, including power plants and railway stations. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to expand the conflict by attacking additional regional energy supply routes. Reuters also reports that Iran has urged Yemeni Houthi groups to be ready to cut an oil pipeline in the Red Sea, creating another serious threat to global energy supplies.

These events, combined with reduced maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, provide additional support for oil prices and confirm the likelihood of further upside. However, before opening new long positions, it is prudent to wait for a sustained price advance and a confident breakout above the current range. At the same time, fundamental factors suggest any pullback would likely be seen by buyers as an opportunity to accumulate at lower prices.

From a technical standpoint, oil is in a bullish consolidation, facing resistance at the 50?day EMA. Support is provided by the round level of 78.00. If resistance is overcome, the next hurdles will be the 50?day SMA and the 100?day SMA, after which bulls will have a better chance to take control of the market. On a pullback, the next support will be the 9?day EMA. Note that oscillators are mixed, indicating market uncertainty about direction.

Weak US inflation data and large inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs pushed ETH back to around $1,900. Asian exchanges slid amid a broad semiconductor sell-off and a re-rating of AI investments. Mixed quarterly results at Netflix — rising ad revenue and top line, but a cautious outlook — are weighing on investor sentiment. Google again delayed the launch of its most powerful Gemini AI model — 3.5 Pro.

Ethereum back at $1,900 — weak US inflation and ETF inflows fueled the rally

On Wednesday, July 15, Ethereum (ETH) returned to around $1,900 for the first time since June 2, after US inflation data came in weaker than expected and sparked a broad crypto market rally. According to Yahoo Finance, the asset opened at $1,889.97 in the morning, up 6.6% from the previous day's open.

The primary trigger was Bureau of Labor Statistics data: the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% in June — the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Year-on-year inflation eased to 3.5% versus economists' forecast of 3.8%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was unchanged month?on?month and stood at 2.6% year-on-year.

Institutional demand provided an additional boost. On July 14, US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $58.34 million, with all of the day's flows going into BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA). ETHA's cumulative net inflows are now estimated at $11.24 billion, and total assets in spot Ethereum ETFs reached $10.09 billion.

The recent inflows continued a trend reversal that began at the start of the month. For the week ended July 11, spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $84.42 million — the first positive week after eight consecutive weeks of outflows.

The instruments mentioned in the article are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. Traders who want to take advantage of the market situation should open a trading account with InstaForex and download the company's mobile app for convenient access and quick responses to market moves.

Semiconductor sell-off drags Asian markets down

On Friday, July 17, Asian exchanges slid sharply: Japan's Nikkei 225 lost more than 5%, falling to levels not seen since June 11, while Taiwan's Taiex plunged more than 4% in morning trading. This was the second painful trading day in a row as investors exited positions tied to the AI theme.

The reason for the sell-off is clear: sectoral expectations for semiconductors have rapidly faded. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has retraced roughly 19% from its peak since June, Bloomberg notes — skepticism is growing over whether the hundreds of billions invested in AI infrastructure will pay off. In the US on Thursday, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell nearly 4%, pushing its weekly decline to almost 7%.

Even companies with strong results did not save their stocks. TSMC, a barometer of AI-chip demand, reported a record Q2 profit of $22.36 billion, up 77% year-on-year and well above analysts' expectations. Nevertheless, its shares fell 4.5% on the Taipei exchange on Friday — markets reacted to a rise in forecast capital expenditures and analysts' concerns about rising costs and fatigue from years of AI hype.

It's not only TSMC at risk. In Japan, Kioxia (recently larger than Toyota by market cap) has lost about half its value over the past month. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 2.1%, and Chinese AI and tech stocks continued to decline.

Netflix reports Q2 2026 — advertising grows, revenue just misses

Netflix released its quarterly results after the close on Thursday, producing a mixed report. The service beat profit estimates but missed revenue consensus by a small margin. The company reported revenue of about $12.56 billion — up 13% year-on-year, but slightly below the $12.57–12.58 billion range analysts expected.

Management attributes the performance to two factors: price increases in some markets and the active expansion of the advertising business. The ad tier now covers more than 250 million monthly active viewers worldwide — a milestone Netflix highlighted at its May 2026 upfront presentation.

Management had previously pledged that ad revenue would double to $3 billion in 2026, and the quarterly results suggest the company is moving in that direction.

For investors, advertising has become a key driver of optimism. Some analysts, including those at Bank of America and Cowen, had viewed Netflix shares as a play on rising ad revenue, and the quarter confirmed that advertising is gaining weight in the revenue mix.

Netflix's guidance for Q3 came in below analysts' expectations — a trend that has pressured the stock for several quarters. In Q1 2026, the company beat revenue and profit estimates, yet the shares fell almost 10% in after-hours trading due to cautious guidance.

The company also announced it will move its audience report — formerly published twice a year with viewing hours for individual projects — to an annual cadence. This change removes one of the relatively few sources of content performance metrics for investors and the industry.

At the time of the report, Netflix shares were under pressure: trading roughly 35% below their 52-week high of $134.12 and down about 24% in the first half of 2026. The options market had priced in a move of about 7.3% in either direction around the earnings release.

Google delays Gemini 3.5 Pro — internal frustration grows, shares fall

Google again postponed the launch of its most powerful Gemini AI model — 3.5 Pro. According to a Bloomberg report, the release is delayed by several months, causing notable frustration among engineers, AI researchers and managers inside the company.

The main reason for the delay is work on the model's programming skills. Bloomberg's sources say Google is trying to close a gap in code generation that emerged after new models from OpenAI and Meta, which have shown stronger coding performance than current Gemini versions. Late last month, Google updated Gemini's training data, but the changes have not yet produced the expected results — internal tests remain unsatisfactory.

Gemini 3.5 Pro was first announced at the I/O conference on May 19, 2026, together with Gemini 3.5 Flash. Sundar Pichai then promised that Pro would appear "next month," but June passed without a broad release. At the end of June, Business Insider reported the launch was pushed to July to collect feedback from initial testers.

To date, the model is available only in a limited corporate preview on Vertex AI; the wider developer community is still waiting. Mid-July materials show several test builds have not reached the company's stated performance targets, especially compared with products like OpenAI's GPT-5.6.

After Bloomberg's report this week, Alphabet shares plummeted.

For Google, the delay is an unwelcome signal because the company risks losing momentum in the race for leading AI models — a gap competitors may exploit. For the market, it's another reason to reassess valuations of tech giants and sector return expectations.

The instruments discussed in the article — Alphabet shares and other tech assets — are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. Users who want to take advantage of the current market situation should open a trading account with InstaForex and download the company's mobile app for fast access to quotes and mobile trading.

With US earnings season wrapping up — and overall results broadly positive — tech's index Nasdaq failed to launch significantly higher and instead has merely held near record levels.

So why is a substantial correction now a realistic possibility?

Market participants have arguably already priced in earnings, and attention is shifting to the absence of new, breakthrough growth themes that would sustainably lift demand for equities. Even the relief from falling crude, which has helped slow US inflation and reduce the odds of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, has not rekindled buying. Futures markets show the probability of a July Fed hike has fallen from 51% to about 46% at the time of writing.

Another supporting factor for equities would be lower Treasury yields. This week, the two-year note yield, which reacts sensitively to rate-change expectations, fell from a local peak of 4.298% to about 4.118%, while the 10-year yield eased from 4.632% to 4.529%. The overall message from the bond market is that the chance of a near-term rate rise has diminished, and even that wasn't enough to support the Nasdaq.

Taken together, the available evidence suggests a correction in the US market is not just overdue but perhaps overripe.

What to expect from markets today?

Given that many drivers have already been priced in and concerns about an inflated AI bubble are now on investors' radar, we should expect a correction in the Nasdaq index and in the corresponding CFD contract.

Daily forecast:

#NDX

The Nasdaq 100 futures CFD has slipped below the support level of 28,668.00. From a technical perspective, consolidation below this level could pave the way for further losses, first toward 28,220.50 and then to 27,500.00 next week. A sell entry could be placed at 28,470.00.

GOLD

Gold is trading above 3,982.50. Renewed Middle East tensions could push the price down toward 3,950.00 and then 3,900.00. A sell entry could be considered at 3,975.00.