On the lower timeframe, I can identify a classic three-wave upward corrective structure. After the completion of this structure, a new downward trend segment began to form, which logically should be impulsive in nature. If this assumption is correct, we can expect the development of a five-wave structure within wave C of the higher order, with targets below the 1.1400 level. Are there currently any fundamental reasons to expect such a strong strengthening of the dollar? In my view, no. Monday showed that Tehran and Washington may return to the negotiating table, which reduces the likelihood of further significant dollar appreciation.

The euro remains under pressure.

The EUR/USD pair showed almost no change during Friday, but overall continued to decline gradually throughout the week. The low volatility and frequent shifts in direction indicate, first, that the market itself does not understand what to expect next, and second, that Iran and the United States are unable to provide markets with clear information based on facts rather than expectations, threats, opinions, or yet another "insider" report. Throughout this week, market participants received information almost daily that contradicted previous reports. At one moment, Iran and the United States appeared close to signing an agreement; at another, the war seemed likely to resume within days. One report suggested the parties were moving closer together, while another claimed they were drifting further apart. As a result, the market simply grew tired of reacting to news that has little connection with the actual state of affairs, which is currently known only to a limited number of people worldwide. The market has effectively paused until the parties finally decide which direction they want to pursue next: renewed war or peaceful coexistence.

In my opinion — and I have repeated this view many times — the chances of peace in the near future remain minimal. Even various "insider reports" confirm that Tehran and Washington have made little progress in recent weeks regarding the most important issues. Therefore, I do not fully understand the point of reaching agreements on secondary matters if the core disagreements remain unresolved and progress on them remains highly questionable. At the same time, under current conditions the market is in no rush to buy dollars, because if negotiations are continuing, then the possibility of peace still exists. However, traders are also unwilling to sell the dollar aggressively, since negotiations have been ongoing for several months without producing meaningful results.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within a broader upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a corrective structure. The corrective a-b-c wave formation appears complete. Consequently, wave 3 or wave c is currently continuing to develop, potentially as part of a larger wave C. The entire wave C (if the current wave count is correct) could complete far below the 1.1400 level. However, such a scenario would require strong geopolitical support. Otherwise, the downward wave structure may itself take the form of an a-b-c correction and complete near the 1.1578 level.

On the higher timeframe, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, wave C is expected to form with targets located around the 1.1352 level, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C structure is completed, a new long-term upward trend may begin to develop.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should remain simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. Absolute certainty regarding market direction never exists. Always remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

Under current conditions, traders can only wait either for another reaction from Imbalance 13, which remains the final bullish pattern within the current bullish impulse, or for its invalidation. If the current decline is viewed as a corrective pullback, then it could be completed within Imbalance 13. However, without geopolitical support, traders appear unwilling to return to buying. If the current movement is viewed as the beginning of a new bearish trend, then there is currently no suitable area for opening short positions, since the only bearish pattern — Imbalance 15 — was never fully worked out.

Once again, it should be emphasized that the entire appreciation of the U.S. dollar between January and March was driven exclusively by geopolitics. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and for more than a month bulls remained largely dominant. At present, the ceasefire remains extremely fragile, but negotiations have not been completely abandoned, and hopes for peace still exist. Unfortunately, traders themselves are increasingly losing confidence in a comprehensive resolution to the conflict and in a final agreement between Iran and the United States. More precisely, a deal will probably eventually be signed. However, "eventually" is not a timeframe that satisfies the market. For example, if a deal is signed a year from now, traders are unlikely to become optimistic about it today and aggressively sell the U.S. dollar.

The overall technical picture currently remains relatively clear. The bullish trend remains intact, but it is desperately in need of support. Ideally, this support should come from geopolitics — namely, renewed negotiations between Iran and the United States accompanied by genuine concessions from both sides. Without a positive news backdrop, it will be difficult for the euro to resume its upward movement.

The economic background on Friday was effectively nonexistent, which was clearly reflected in weak trading activity throughout the day. Selling pressure on the pair remains very limited, but it still dominates over buying interest, as the market continues to doubt that a deal between Iran and the United States will ultimately be signed.

There are still numerous reasons for bulls to remain active in 2026, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies — which caused a sharp decline in the dollar last year — have not changed. Over the coming months, the U.S. currency may periodically strengthen amid investor flight to safety, but this factor requires constant escalation in the Middle East conflict. I still do not believe in the formation of a long-term bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary market support, but what fundamental drivers would allow bears to maintain pressure over the long term?

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone

The economic calendar for May 25 contains no significant events. Therefore, the economic backdrop is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, in the near term, bulls may well resume their advance if they receive even modest support from geopolitics.

Traders had opportunities to open long positions based on the signal from Imbalance 12, as well as from the order block signal. The upward movement could resume toward this year's highs from Imbalance 13. However, in the coming days, it is important for bulls to maintain control of the market. For the euro to continue rising without obstacles, the Middle East conflict must move toward a sustainable peace process, and signs of de-escalation do occasionally appear. However, such developments remain rare. Bullish traders still lack sufficient support for launching a new upward impulse. The zone for new long positions is 1.1605–1.1649.

The situation regarding a resolution to the Middle East conflict has effectively become deadlocked, while traders no longer understand which direction sentiment may shift next. Today it may favor the bulls, tomorrow the bears. This is precisely the market environment we have observed in recent weeks. At the current stage, confidence in peace in the Middle East and in the removal of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to minimal levels.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still holding. Naturally, the market cannot rely indefinitely on information that lacks factual confirmation. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively under dual blockade conditions, while Tehran and Washington continue unsuccessfully attempting to break the deadlock without making major concessions during negotiations. The situation continues to shift alternately for better and for worse. Markets remained highly optimistic for nearly a full month, but last week they were confronted with the reality of the situation.

The current technical picture is as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a valid market reaction, and if not for Bearish Imbalance 19, I would be preparing for a strong bullish advance. However, Bearish Imbalance 19 formed within a bullish trend, so at this stage I do not consider it suitable for opening short positions. Nevertheless, every trend eventually comes to an end. The downward movement could resume in the event of another collapse in negotiations between the West and the East.

The economic news background on Friday remained very weak. In the United Kingdom, today's retail sales report disappointed bulls just as much as the previous UK reports released this week, including inflation, unemployment, and business activity data. Bullish traders once again managed to prevent a deeper decline in the pair, but their strength is not unlimited.

In the United States, the broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, from a long-term perspective, it is difficult to expect anything other than continued dollar weakness. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little in this regard. Geopolitical tensions temporarily restored demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset for roughly two months, but the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency remains difficult. The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recessionary conditions, and unlike the ECB and the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. In addition, four major protest movements against Donald Trump have already taken place across the United States, while the eventual departure of Jerome Powell could further worsen the outlook for the dollar if the FOMC under Kevin Warsh adopts a more dovish stance. From an economic standpoint, I currently see no strong basis for sustained dollar growth.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK

May 25 contains no significant events on the economic calendar. Therefore, the economic backdrop is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The Three Drives pattern warned traders about the beginning of the upward movement, after which three bullish patterns and three bullish signals were formed. Last week, geopolitical developments weakened the bulls' previously optimistic outlook, but they still retain an opportunity to maintain control within Imbalance 18. To achieve this, bulls must invalidate Imbalance 19 and receive supportive geopolitical news. My target for the pound remains the 2026 high at 1.3867. I will only begin considering a bearish trend scenario if Imbalance 18 is invalidated. In that case, bearish patterns would come into play. Until that happens, I continue to expect further upward growth.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure; however, the asset is still managing to hold above the psychologically important $4,500 level.

The US dollar continues to strengthen, reaching a new six-week high amid hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

Additional support for the U.S. currency comes from mixed signals regarding a possible settlement between the United States and Iran, reinforcing the dollar's position as the world's primary reserve currency and consequently reducing the appeal of gold.

Market participants have now fully ruled out a Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of 2026 and are instead pricing in at least one rate hike, given rising energy prices and persistent inflationary risks.

Minutes from the April 28–29 FOMC meeting, published on Wednesday, showed that Federal Reserve officials are inclined to keep interest rates at elevated levels or even raise them further if inflation continues to remain consistently above the 2% target. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December meeting exceeds 60%.

These expectations have driven U.S. Treasury yields higher, supporting the dollar and putting pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian source stated that no agreement with the United States has yet been reached, although disagreements between the parties have narrowed. At the same time, issues related to Iran's uranium enrichment program and Tehran's control over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remain major points of tension.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran's intention to charge transit fees for ships passing through the strait effectively complicates the conclusion of a potential agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump, in turn, emphasized that Washington opposes the introduction of such fees and added that the U.S. military is prepared to seize Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the risk premium and strengthen the U.S. dollar, pointing to the dominance of a bearish scenario for gold.

From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair continues to move within a broader descending channel, trading near the round $4,500 level while attempting to hold above it. However, it is important to note that oscillators remain in negative territory, indicating that bears continue to dominate the market.

Failure to hold above the $4,500 level could accelerate the decline toward the 200-day SMA. For bulls to regain the potential for further upside, prices must break above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs.

Crude oil is trading around $95.75, above the 200 EMA, and within the descending trend channel formed on May 15th. Yesterday, during the US session, crude oil made a jump towards $102.30. Failing to consolidate above the 21 SMA, it fell sharply to $94.

This technical rebound coincides with the lower band of the descending trend channel. So, the price is consolidating above the 200 EMA, meaning that we could expect it to reach the psychological level of $100 in the coming days.

If crude oil falls below $95 and consolidates below this zone, the outlook could be negative. The first idea could be to fill the gap left around $91.30. We could even expect it to drop to the 7/8 Murray level around $87.50.

The trend remains bearish for crude oil, so if there is a pullback towards $99.58 or the psychological $100 level in the coming hours, it will be seen as a signal to open short positions.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we must be very cautious if we are buying crude oil, as the instrument is likely to trade under downward pressure in the coming days.

XAU/USD is trading around $4,523 within the ascending trend channel formed on the H1 chart. We could expect a technical bounce so that the price could reach the 200 EMA around $4,572.

According to the H1 chart, gold is overbought, so it may have difficulty rising above $4,530 in the coming hours, as the 21 SMA could exert downward pressure.

Gold is likely to return to $4,500 or even $4,580 if the downward pressure continues, potentially reaching the low of May 19th around $4,453.

We observe the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the H1 chart. The instrument is expected to oscillate within this pattern in the coming hours, and we foresee consolidation within this area. Only a decisive break above $4,530 would be a bullish buy signal.

Conversely, a drop below $4,490 could lead to consolidation and a potential fall to $4,453.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1611, rebounding above the 3/8 Murray line and within the downtrend channel formed since May 11. On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is under downward pressure and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours if the price consolidates below 1.1596.

Given that the euro has repeatedly tested 1.1596 above 3/8, EUR/USD is expected to reach the 200 EMA located at 1.1679. Under this scenario, we expect the euro to break decisively and consolidate above the downtrend channel and above the 21 SMA around 1.1615.

If the euro continues to rise and consolidates above 1.1615 in the coming hours, the outlook could turn bullish, and this would be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 1.1679 and at the 4/8 Murray level around 1.1718.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we will look for buying opportunities in the coming hours if the price remains above the 3/8 Murray line.

A decisive break and consolidation below 1.1596 could extend the bearish scenario, and the euro could reach the lower band of the uptrend channel around 1.1519.

Bitcoin is trading around $77,384, below the 200 EMA and within the downtrend channel formed since May 10, as well as within the secondary uptrend channel formed since May 18. BTC is in a critical zone, and we could expect it to continue falling in the coming hours.

If Bitcoin falls below the 21 SMA at $77,259 and below the uptrend channel, it could reach the 4/8 Murray level around $75,000 in the coming days.

Conversely, if Bitcoin consolidates above the 200 EMA and above the 5/8 Murray level, this could be seen as a positive signal to buy, with a target at $79,872. BTC could even grow to the 6/8 Murray level around $81,250.

The outlook for BTC is bullish, but Bitcoin is struggling to rise as it is showing signs of exhaustion. So, we could expect it to consolidate above $75,000 in the coming days. If the cryptocurrency consolidates above the 4/8 Murray level, there is a strong positive signal to buy on a technical rebound until BTC reaches the psychological level of $80,000.

A decisive break above the 200 EMA and above the 5/8 Murray line would present an opportunity to buy above $78,000, with targets at $80,000 and $81,250.

At the summit of G7, central bank governors and finance ministers concluded that the inflation spike will be temporary. We are not expected to face the double-digit consumer price surge seen four years ago. Higher global debt yields compared with 2022 are a result of stronger economies than those back then.

Dynamics of inflation and global debt yields

All that may be true, but against the backdrop of rapidly depleting global oil stocks, a Middle East escalation is a direct route for Brent to reach new records. North Sea crude grade could easily exceed the highs seen at the start of the Ukraine war. The result would be an acceleration of inflation and demand for decisive action from central banks. For now, they prefer to sit on their hands.

As Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted, the Federal Reserve cannot fight higher energy prices with rate hikes — the supply shock is outside the central bank's control. Christine Lagarde and ECB Governing Council member Alessandro De Marco argue that medium?term inflation expectations in the eurozone are well anchored. De Marco believes futures markets have gone too far in their pricing. It is not certain that, after a tightening in June, the ECB will make many more moves down the road of monetary restriction.

Thus, the calm before the storm in the Middle East has stretched on. The White House has tried to find a way out, but it seems renewed military action may be unavoidable — and this time it could be even more destructive. Evidence of that is the attack by Iran-backed groups operating from Iraqi territory on the UAE oil infrastructure. Tehran has warned it could export the conflict beyond the region.

Tensions are rising, and next week, EUR/USD risks opening down on a gap. The US dollar will be bought as a safe-haven if US-Israeli missiles fly toward Tehran. Iran's response would not be long in coming.

Technically, on the daily chart, the bulls' failure to reclaim the pin bar signals weakness. The strategy of selling the currency pair on pullbacks remains valid and should not be abandoned. Short-term targets remain at 1.144 and 1.134.

First, the final University of Michigan data for May. The preliminary reading showed the consumer sentiment index at 48.2 — a record low, below April's 49.8 and below the 49.5 forecast. The final release is due today, and the market doesn't expect surprises: consensus for the current conditions index is 47.8, for consumer expectations 48.5, for one?year inflation expectations 4.5% (vs. 4.7% previously) and for five?year expectations 3.4%.

Interestingly, inflation expectations now matter more than the sentiment index itself. Annual expectations at 4.5% still notably exceed the 3.4% levels recorded in February before the Iran war and are far above the pre-pandemic 2.3–3.0% range. This is the metric the Fed watches closely. If the final figure comes in above the preliminary — for example, returning to 4.7% or higher — the dollar would gain support on bets of tougher Fed rhetoric. If the data confirm the prelims or prove slightly softer, the reaction should be muted — the market has largely priced this in.

The second point is a speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. Let me remind you that Mr. Waller previously called the idea of returning to a deficit reserves regime "stupidity," openly opposing plans by the incoming Fed chair. Today's remarks are interesting primarily in the inflation context: if he signals a more hawkish stance than implied by the May minutes, the dollar could get an extra push by the weekend. If he sticks to cautious language, the market will take it as confirmation of the regulator's wait-and-see stance.

Finally, the third and perhaps most significant event of the day is Kevin Warsh's inauguration as the new Fed chair. The Senate confirmed him by the narrowest of margins, and the leadership change comes at an extremely awkward moment: inflation has accelerated to its highest levels since 2023, the May minutes recorded readiness among most committee members to consider rate hikes, and market expectations for tightening have risen toward March next year. Warsh is known as a proponent of substantial balance sheet reduction and overall tighter policy, and the market will watch his first public comments in the new role closely. On the other hand, Warsh's prior pledges to President Trump to cut interest rates present a dilemma: delivering on such promises now would be extremely difficult.

Warsh's arrival is unlikely to be an unambiguously positive long-term signal for the dollar. Short-term reaction will depend on the tone of his initial statements. If he endorses a tough course similar to Powell's, the dollar will gain support; if he opts for cautious wording to avoid stoking market nerves, the reaction will be muted. In any case, today is an important marker for the Fed's likely direction under new leadership.

The proposal envisions housing the reserve within the Treasury Department, with Bitcoin to be stored separately from other digital assets seized by the government. Begich frames his logic by analogy to gold: Bitcoin accounts for roughly 60% of total crypto market capitalization — just as gold dominates the precious?metals complex. In his view, the market itself has handed down that verdict by recognizing Bitcoin as the primary store of value in its asset class. The bill already has bipartisan backing and more than a dozen co-sponsors in Congress.

The timing of the initiative is important. In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but it has not yet been fully implemented. The new bill is intended to give the idea a legislative foundation so the reserve would not depend on changes of administration.

The bill may gain traction because it appeared at an opportune moment, when the crypto sector is undergoing a wave of regulatory change — including the GENIUS proposals and the CLARITY Act, which the Senate Banking Committee recently approved by a 15–9 vote. In short, a third legislative track addressing BTC reserves has now been added to the two existing regulatory processes.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $78,400, which would open a direct path to $80,100, and from there, $81,700 is within reach — a break above which would signal attempts to resume the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected to enter at about $76,500; a drop back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $74,700. The longer?term target would be the $73,100 area.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,146 opens the direct path to $2,222. The longer-term target is the high around $2,291; surpassing that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,084; a fall back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,997. The longer-term target would be the $1,911 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

On Thursday, gold rode a real roller coaster — all because of conflicting reports about talks between the US and Iran. Such news quickly moves the dollar, yields and oil prices, and therefore the price of gold.

In the morning, spot gold fell nearly 1% to around $4,500 an ounce, then partially bounced back. June COMEX futures were near $4,555 and ultimately closed the day slightly higher after early losses. The swings were driven by sharp geopolitical volatility.

At first, Iran's supreme leader denied rumors of a breakthrough in the talks. That pushed oil prices higher and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could proceed with rate hikes. The dollar and Treasury yields moved up, putting pressure on gold. Later, however, reports emerged that Pakistani intermediaries are actively trying to bridge positions between Washington and Tehran.

President Trump also said the parties are in the "final stage," but warned that if talks go poorly, "events will quickly unfold on an escalatory path." In short, diplomatic uncertainty continues to keep the market on edge, which supports the dollar.

If the US and Iran do sign a memorandum (sanctions relief, resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz), oil would fall, inflation fears would ease, and yield?driven pressure would abate — which would be positive for gold. But if talks collapse or escalation begins, oil will almost certainly spike, the Fed will face a difficult choice, real rates will rise, and gold will come back under pressure.

So, headlines about US?Iran negotiations have whipped markets into strong moves, and it remains unclear which way gold will go. Market direction will hinge on whether the opposing sides can reach an agreement.

What Determines the Strength and Weakness of the U.S. Dollar?

This is a key question affecting not only currency pairs involving the dollar, but also a wide range of other assets, including gold. At the moment, many market participants appear to believe that the dollar is unlikely to strengthen significantly again. A large number of investors assume that major currencies currently have stronger positions relative to the U.S. dollar.

Let us examine the main factors influencing the dollar's dynamics and why it is currently consolidating against major Forex currencies.

The first major factor is the conflict in the Middle East and its consequences, particularly the Hormuz-related geopolitical risks. Against this backdrop, the dollar has been perceived by market participants as a safe-haven currency. It received support due to a correlation that emerged in early March: rising crude oil prices supported the dollar as a defensive asset, while gold prices declined and cryptocurrencies weakened. Conversely, falling oil prices supported gains in gold and cryptocurrencies, while the dollar came under pressure.

In practice, the current strength or weakness of the dollar largely depends on how markets react to the negotiation process between the United States and Iran. Any meaningful signs of progress in negotiations tend to weaken the U.S. dollar, while the absence of positive developments encourages speculative demand for the currency.

Another important factor is the relationship between the dollar's performance, inflation expectations in the United States, and the Federal Reserve's response. Many market participants believe that persistently rising inflation could force the Fed to raise interest rates further. This is the second major factor supporting the dollar, and it is also closely tied to developments in the Middle East. Therefore, traders should closely monitor these two primary drivers, which either support the dollar or place pressure on it.

Why Is the Forex Market Quiet Today?

The current calm in the Forex market can largely be explained by expectations surrounding news on negotiations between the United States and Iran. Both positive and negative developments are likely to trigger renewed buying or selling of the U.S. dollar.

Daily Forecast

EUR/USD

The pair is consolidating below the 1.1610 resistance level. It may either rise or decline depending on developments in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

A peace agreement could provide the basis for growth toward 1.1675. At the same time, the absence of an agreement could trigger another decline toward 1.1535.

The 1.1579 level may serve as a trigger for short positions, while 1.1646 may serve as a trigger for long positions.

GOLD

Gold prices remain within a very narrow range and may continue declining toward 4400.00 if negative news emerges regarding the negotiations. In this scenario, gold could fall toward the 4400.00 level.

Conversely, positive developments could push prices higher toward 4665.75.

The 4495.84 level may serve as a trigger for short positions, while 4567.00 may serve as a trigger for long positions.

The price did not reach the levels I identified during the first half of the day, so I remained without any trades.

The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in its own range and is showing no significant volatility. On the one hand, there are few traders willing to buy near the 160 level, but on the other hand, there is also little interest in selling the dollar. Perhaps today's U.S. economic data could change the situation.

Market participants will focus on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Its release is expected to provide valuable insight into consumers' assessment of the current economic environment and their personal financial outlook. At the same time, inflation expectations data will also be published. Persistently elevated inflation expectations could encourage the Federal Reserve to take more decisive measures, including a possible revision of interest rate levels, which could trigger renewed dollar buying and further weakening of the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY after reaching the entry point around 159.19 (green line on the chart), with a target at 159.52 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 159.52 level, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level.

Further growth of the pair today can be expected only if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.00 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 159.19 and 159.52 may be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below the 159.00 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.56 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level.

Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if weak U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.19 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 159.00 and 158.56 may be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3418 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. A second test of 1.3418 triggered the implementation of Buy Scenario No. 2 for the pound, resulting in a 15-point rise in the pair.

Investors' attention today will focus on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This indicator, considered one of the leading indicators of consumer activity, could significantly affect market dynamics. Strong data may strengthen confidence in stable economic growth, while weak figures could raise concerns about an economic slowdown.

At the same time, inflation expectations data will also be published. This information is critically important for the Federal Reserve when shaping monetary policy decisions. Persistently elevated inflation expectations could push the Fed toward tighter policy measures, including potential interest rate hikes, in an effort to contain price growth.

Particular attention will also be directed toward remarks by FOMC member Christopher Waller, who is known for his well-reasoned and occasionally hawkish comments.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3435 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3466 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3466, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level.

Further pound growth today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3415 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3435 and 1.3466 may be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below the 1.3415 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3383 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level.

Pressure on the pound is likely to return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3435 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3415 and 1.3383 may be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1607 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 7 points.

Going forward, investors and analysts will focus on a series of important U.S. macroeconomic reports. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be released, which is considered an important indicator of consumer confidence and, consequently, potential consumer spending. At the same time, inflation expectations data will also be published. These figures are of critical importance for understanding how market participants and consumers assess future price levels.

Additional attention will be directed toward remarks by FOMC member Christopher Waller. His comments on the state of the economy, as well as any signals regarding future Federal Reserve actions, may significantly affect market sentiment and the direction of financial assets. A hawkish tone and firm monetary policy stance could support further dollar growth toward the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, buying the euro may be considered after the price reaches the 1.1615 area (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1645. At the 1.1645 level, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after weak U.S. economic data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1595 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1615 and 1.1645 may be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1595 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1565, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1615 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this scenario, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1595 and 1.1565 may be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The wave structure on the hourly chart currently remains relatively straightforward. The latest completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points, while the latest downward wave, which has not yet been completed, broke below the previous low. Thus, the trend has shifted to bearish. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls for a month, but now, six weeks later, it can be said that geopolitical developments are moving toward preserving the conflict. As I previously warned, the bulls were unable to maintain momentum without a full ceasefire in the Middle East.

On Thursday, the bulls faced new difficulties. Business activity indices in Germany and the Eurozone came in weaker than market expectations, triggering a decline in demand for the euro. Later in the day, reports emerged that Iran and the United States, with Pakistan acting as mediator, had agreed on a plan to resolve the crisis, which forced the bears to retreat. However, as of Friday morning, there had been no confirmation that the crisis was nearing resolution. A draft agreement may have been coordinated, but there is no reliable confirmation of this.

At the same time, reports emerged from Iran this morning stating that Supreme Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had issued a decree prohibiting uranium exports outside the country. I do not know what the proposed agreement includes, but Washington is unlikely to accept such a scenario. Donald Trump's key condition remains Iran's refusal to retain uranium stockpiles and continue uranium enrichment. If this condition is not met, it is difficult to speak about any peace agreement. Therefore, at the current stage, I do not see any meaningful improvement in the geopolitical situation. The parties still cannot reach agreement on the most critical issues.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1617, but failed to continue either the upward movement or initiate a new decline. Thus, geopolitical developments continue to shift the pair's direction on a daily basis, which is why I currently recommend focusing primarily on the hourly chart for analysis. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 6,528 Long positions and closed 1,470 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict in Iran, while over the past seven weeks the situation has stabilized amid the suspension of military activity in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 224 thousand, while Short positions amount to 184 thousand. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, in the longer term, major market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Naturally, global events of various kinds — which have been abundant in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, the dynamics of the euro and the U.S. dollar will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone

Germany

• GfK Consumer Confidence Index (06:00 UTC)
• Business Climate Index (08:00 UTC)

United States

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for May 22 contains three events, none of which can be considered particularly important. Therefore, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be very limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

I previously recommended selling the pair after a rebound from the 1.1630 level on the hourly chart with a target at 1.1578. Similar trades could also have been opened today. Buying positions may be considered after consolidation above the 1.1630 level, with targets at 1.1682 and 1.1745.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure shifted to a bearish outlook last week. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet exceeded the previous peak. Geopolitical factors are currently supporting the bears, as the market has still not seen the signing of even a temporary memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. At the moment, the ceasefire remains in place, but the situation is gradually shifting toward escalation and a prolonged confrontation.

Thursday's news background once again supported the bears, although the bulls managed to withstand the pressure. UK business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors failed to impress in May. In particular, the Services PMI dropped sharply from 52.7 to 47.9 points. Naturally, traders could not ignore such a significant decline in the indicator. The market reaction was not particularly strong, but the pound remained under pressure for most of the day once again.

Earlier today, another disappointing report was released in the United Kingdom. In addition to the weak inflation, unemployment, and business activity reports for the pound, retail sales volumes in April declined by 1.3% month-on-month versus forecasts of -0.6%. Thus, all four of the most important UK reports released this week have put pressure on the bulls and the pound. The British currency is being supported only by the fact that Iran and the United States still appear to be moving toward each other and toward signing at least a temporary agreement that would allow more detailed and comprehensive negotiations to continue. This week, information suggesting that negotiations are progressing and that chances for an agreement remain has emerged at least three times. There has been no official confirmation yet, but the market also cannot ignore this information. And this factor is already working against the bears.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and reversed in favor of the pound, advancing toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and the resumption of the decline toward 1.3327. Consolidation above 1.3429 would allow for further growth of the pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 17,032, while the number of Short positions decreased by 3,817. The gap between Long and Short positions now effectively stands at 79 thousand versus 123 thousand. For six consecutive weeks in February and March, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced long positions, leading to a significant imbalance between Long and Short positions. In recent months, bears have dominated the market, which raises no questions given the geopolitical environment.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but everything now depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but the latest news suggests that a full ceasefire remains far away and that the conflict could resume at any moment.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK

United Kingdom

• Retail Sales Volume Change (06:00 UTC)

United States

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for May 22 contains only two events, both of which are considered secondary. Therefore, the influence of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday may be weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Selling positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. These trades may still be kept open. Buying positions may be considered after consolidation above the 1.3454–1.3466 level with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.3158–1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866–1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Asian equity markets are also advancing for a second consecutive day and are now heading toward a weekly gain, as investors shift their focus from a narrow group of semiconductor suppliers to the broader AI ecosystem.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by 1%, with Japan's Nikkei leading the region higher at +2.7%. The standout performer was SoftBank, whose shares surged by 11% following strong momentum in its US subsidiary, Arm Holdings. Meanwhile, Lenovo hit a 26-year high in Hong Kong after reporting solid earnings, driven in large part by its AI-related business. Nasdaq 100 futures are already up another 0.5% today.

What is particularly important here is the structural shift behind this rally. Until recently, the AI-driven market surge was concentrated in a very small group of companies — primarily advanced chipmakers such as Nvidia and TSMC. Now, traders are actively rotating into the next wave of AI beneficiaries: memory manufacturers, robotics firms, and infrastructure providers. This transition from a narrowly concentrated rally to broader market participation makes the move significantly more sustainable. Once multiple sectors begin contributing to upside momentum, the rally becomes much harder to derail with a single negative headline.

According to Franklin Templeton, markets are still not fully pricing in what could happen once companies begin integrating AI deeply into their business processes and that starts feeding through into earnings growth. Data from the Ramp AI Index supports this view: the share of US companies paying for AI models and AI-based tools has accelerated sharply in recent months, suggesting AI adoption is becoming structural rather than experimental.

Geopolitical risks, however, remain firmly in the picture. After three straight sessions of declines, Brent crude rebounded above $105 per barrel. Comments from Iran regarding uranium reserves and disputes over transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz dampened some of the optimism generated by recent diplomatic signals. Donald Trump openly opposed any attempts to establish a permanent transit-fee system through the strait. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned "some positive signs," while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that Iran would never abandon its objectives. Negotiations are ongoing, but a tangible breakthrough still appears distant.

Gold edged slightly lower to around $4,520 per ounce. The US dollar strengthened against most G10 currencies ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen traded near 159 per dollar, hovering close to its weakest level since late April after Japan's core inflation data slowed more than expected.

From a technical S&P 500 perspective, the key task for buyers today is to break above the nearest resistance level of 7,474. A successful breakout there would reinforce bullish momentum and open the door for a push toward 7,494. Another critical objective for bulls is maintaining control above 7,518, which would further strengthen buyer positioning. On the downside, if risk appetite weakens, buyers must defend the 7,451 area. A break below that level would likely send the index back toward 7,427, with further downside potential extending to 7,404.

Investor concerns had been fueled by the rally in Treasury yields, which typically weighs on equities. Higher yields tend to make stock valuations look stretched, while also increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring profitability. However, rising bond yields can also reflect economic strength — and recent US macro data has been consistently outperforming expectations, pushing the economic surprise index to its highest level since February.

US economic surprise index and bond yields dynamics

In this context, the jump in US manufacturing activity to a four-year high became yet another confirmation of economic resilience. At the same time, the Fed's reluctance to rush into additional tightening is creating what many traders describe as a "Goldilocks" environment for the S&P 500 — not too hot, not too cold.

According to Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, there is little reason to tighten monetary policy in response to supply-side shocks. His comments reduced the market-implied probability of further Fed tightening in 2026 from around 60% to below 50%, helping support the broader equity market.

That said, Goldman Sachs notes that hedge funds have started trimming equity exposure, particularly in semiconductor stocks. At the same time, they have increased positions in macro-risk hedging instruments to the highest level in ten months. Formally, this caution should not necessarily alarm S&P 500 bulls. There is still substantial liquidity sitting outside the equity market, and if that capital rotates back into stocks, the broad index could extend its rally further.

Research from Jefferies supports this idea. The firm believes investor concerns over sticky inflation, bond market volatility, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping positioning relatively cautious. In other words, many portfolios still hold fewer equities than they potentially could.

This stands in contrast to a recent Bank of America survey, according to which asset managers increased their overweight exposure to US equities from 13% to 50% in May.

Overall, the current "Goldilocks" setup — strong US economic momentum combined with the Fed's unwillingness to rush rate hikes — continues to provide a tailwind for the S&P 500. At the same time, hedge funds are gradually beginning to reduce exposure into strength.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 saw the first test of the important pivot level at 7,460. For now, a close below that level does not signal a breakout on its own. A more meaningful bearish trigger would require a drop below the bar low at 7,385. In this scenario, the risk of forming a classic 1-2-3 reversal pattern would increase significantly.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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According to the data, the US manufacturing PMI soared to 55.3 from April's 54.5, exceeding the market forecast of 53.8. This is the highest level since May 2022: output grew at the fastest pace in over 4 years, employment reached its highest level since June 2025, and new orders posted the second-strongest result in 4 years. At first glance, this is impressive strength. However, behind these numbers lies the same story as in the Eurozone and the UK: a significant portion of the growth is explained by preemptive purchases. Clients actively increased their inventories to hedge against rising prices and supply disruptions related to the war in the Middle East. Delivery times have lengthened to the greatest extent since August 2022. In other words, production is increasing not because the economy is revving up, but because businesses fear what tomorrow may bring.

The services sector, in contrast, declined to 50.9 from April's 51.0, with a forecast of 51.2, which is a troubling sign as it is formally above 50 points but essentially on the brink of stagnation. It is evident that the services sector is headed for the worst quarter since late 2023: the influx of new orders is barely noticeable, and the war is increasingly putting pressure on demand. This encapsulates the key paradox: American industry appears to thrive on paper, while the services sector—the backbone of the consumer economy—is beginning to stall. The composite PMI ultimately remained at April's level—51.7, matching forecasts.

The inflation component of the report deserves special attention. It indicated that input prices for manufacturing rose to the highest level since June 2022, while output prices reached their peak since September 2022. In the services sector, cost inflation accelerated to a one-year high. This is a critical point for the Federal Reserve, as the central bank looks not only at overall CPI and PCE levels but also at whether price pressures are spreading across the economy—and the PMI confirms this. High oil prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are being passed on to the costs of manufacturers, carriers, and service providers, and this process is clearly not over yet.

The overall picture for the dollar is moderately positive. A strong manufacturing PMI demonstrates the resilience of the American economy amid overtly weak data from Europe and the UK, where similar indicators have sunk well below 50. This divergence favors the dollar. On the other hand, the weakness in the services sector, combined with persistent inflationary pressures, presents a scenario in which the Fed has no good options: raising rates amid a slowing consumer sector is painful, but not raising rates while inflation accelerates means losing market confidence.

On the flip side, the dollar is currently more reactive to Middle Eastern news than to fundamental data and macroeconomic indicators. Traders are much more interested in what Trump has to say than in GDP or labor market reports.

As the times are, so is the market.

On one hand, an Iranian semi-official agency reported that the latest American proposal "has somewhat narrowed the gap" between the parties. This seemingly signals a reduction in geopolitical premiums. However, almost simultaneously, there was a report that the country's supreme leader prohibited exporting uranium close to weapon-grade quality, and Trump spoke out strongly against any attempts to impose a transit fee through the Strait of Hormuz. Contradictory headlines on a single day leave the market unsure which direction to take.

This is particularly painful for gold because uncertainty over the Iranian issue keeps inflation expectations elevated, which, in turn, keeps interest rates high. Gold, which does not generate interest income, loses its main catalyst for growth under such conditions, potentially preserving its chances for further declines.

Since the start of the war at the end of February, gold has already lost about 14% and has since been trading sideways, failing to find either a sufficiently strong bullish impulse for recovery or a clear trigger for the next round of declines. It is evident that traders are caught between two scenarios: if the conflict drags on, stagflation fears will ultimately support the metal; if an agreement is reached, falling interest rates will do the same. The problem is that neither scenario has yet materialized—and the market is simply waiting.

Silver lost 0.1% to $76.61. Platinum and palladium showed virtually no change.

Given the current technical picture, gold buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,546. This will allow them to target $4,607, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The farthest target will be $4,656. If gold declines, bears will attempt to take control at $4,481. If they succeed, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,432 with the prospect of reaching $4,401.

The price decline was prompted by Iran's statement that the latest American proposal partially resolved key disagreements. However, almost simultaneously, the country's supreme leader emphasized the need to maintain uranium stocks in Tehran, and a separate point of contention arose regarding the transit fee through the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump immediately opposed any attempts to monetize passage through this strategically important waterway. The predictable outcome: conflicting signals within the same news cycle prevent the market from forming a stable position in either direction.

It is worth noting that oil trading volumes have significantly dropped since the onset of the war. The CIBC Private Wealth Group described the situation accurately: buyers on dips are hesitant to enter, fearing that the opening of the Strait could send prices tumbling; physical market players prefer to reduce inventories and wait rather than chase expensive cargoes. Continuous fluctuations in headlines create an environment where risk is equally unpleasant in both directions, leading to a contraction in market activity.

The fundamental deficit, however, remains. According to Goldman Sachs, the war and supply disruptions have led to a record decline in global crude oil and petroleum product inventories. The IEA is prepared to release additional reserves if necessary—its executive director, Fatih Birol, confirmed this on Thursday, reminding that the first shipment from strategic reserves occurred in March. However, as was the case in the early weeks of the US-Iran war, interventions from reserves may only alleviate but not eliminate the deficit while the Strait remains effectively closed.

The main question now is not whether oil will rise or fall in the coming days, but when the market will receive a clear signal about real progress in negotiations. Until that signal is given, trading will remain nervous, volatile, and without a clear direction.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow them to target $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be $113.40. Should oil decline, bears will attempt to take control at $92.50. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push oil to a low of $86.60, with the prospect of reaching $81.40.

Bitcoin remains a hostage to the absence of buyers and sellers. Recent price movements have caused traders to doubt whether it is in a bullish market. Following the rally in early April that pushed the price above $80,000 by May 6, Bitcoin has retraced back to around $77,000, where it has remained throughout this week. However, the focus is not just on the price level but also on the asset's behavior: Bitcoin is moving almost in sync with the Nasdaq technology index.

According to some experts, this seriously undermines one of the key arguments in favor of cryptocurrency—that it is a safe haven asset or a hedge against the dollar. Additionally, Bitcoin has shown unexpected resilience amid high US interest rates, even though rate hikes traditionally put pressure on assets that do not generate interest income.

This suggests that once the sell-off of technology stocks begins, a decline in the cryptocurrency market will soon follow. Today, Kevin Warsh takes the oath as the new head of the Federal Reserve, so anything can happen. Historically, each time a new Fed chair has taken office, the US stock market has lost up to 12% over the next three months.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $77,700, aiming to rise to $78,500. At around $78,500, I will exit the buy trades and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $77,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $77,700 and $78,500.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $77,300, aiming to fall to $76,200. At around $76,200, I will exit the sell trades and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $77,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $77,300 and $76,200.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,131 with the target of rising to $2,161. At around $2,161, I will exit the buy trades and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,121 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $2,131 and $2,161.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $2,121, aiming to fall to $2,082. At around $2,082, I will exit the sell trades and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,131 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $2,121 and $2,082.