See also: InstaForex trading indicators for EUR/CHF

After breaking the key strategic support level of 1.5250 at the end of 2008 (the 200-period moving average on the monthly chart), the EUR/CHF pair has been in a long-term bear market. Nevertheless, after touching a multi-year local low near 0.8980 in early March 2026, the pair managed a partial recovery, strengthening by roughly 2.3% to the current zone of key resistance levels 0.9222 (144-period moving average on the daily chart)–0.9252 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), which separates the medium-term bear market from a bull phase.

On the one hand, Switzerland faces record-low inflation, which allows the domestic regulator to maintain a dovish stance. On the other hand, growing geopolitical pressure and mixed signals from Europe keep the pair in equilibrium. Below we examine the factors that keep EUR/CHF balanced and what could catalyze the next move.

Switzerland: low inflation as pillar of stability

The key news for the franc was March inflation data. Year-on-year consumer prices (CPI) in Switzerland rose to 0.3%, the highest in a year. However, the national statistics office notes that this increase was driven mainly by higher prices for services and food, while the energy sector remained stable thanks to moderate movements in oil and gas prices.

The main takeaway for the market is that inflation remains well below the Swiss National Bank's target range of 2.0%. This frees the SNB to keep policy loose. The domestic situation does not call for rate hikes, and the SNB can maintain refinancing rates in the 1.00–1.25% range.

This combination — low inflation plus accommodative policy — creates a stable foundation for economic recovery and supports the export sector. Moreover, a low CPI cushion allows the SNB to act more actively against excessive franc appreciation, without fearing to stoke inflation.

Europe: mixed data and hawkish ECB tone

While Switzerland faces disinflationary risks, the European Central Bank is signaling the opposite.

1. Hawkish rhetoric. ECB Governing Council member Dimitar Radev said that talking about an April rate hike is still "too early," but his comment underscores that the option is actively debated. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

2. Weak German data. Germany's composite PMI fell to a three-month low of 51.9, driven by a sharp slowdown in services amid higher fuel prices and elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. This is a classic stagflation signal that limits euro upside.

Trump's Middle East ultimatum and EUR/CHF prospects

Markets are now in wait-and-see mode, and macro data have taken a back seat. The main driver right now is geopolitics.

US President Donald Trump has given Iran an ultimatum to 20:00 Eastern Time on Tuesday, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, he threatened to destroy all bridges and power plants in Iran.

Iranian military officials have called these threats "nonsense," and a parliamentary adviser said Trump has about 20 hours to surrender to Iran, otherwise his allies will return to the Paleolithic era.

Given the current state of affairs, three possible paths for EUR/CHF stand out:

1. Escalation (bearish for EUR/CHF). If Trump carries out his threats, the dollar will surge, and global risk appetite will collapse. The Swiss franc, as a primary safe haven, would also strengthen sharply. The euro, conversely, would come under pressure because the region depends on energy imports.

Targets: a break of short-term support at 0.9194 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a move to the support zone 0.9158 (EMA50 on the daily chart)–0.9148 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

2. Diplomatic solution (bullish for EUR/CHF). If the parties agree, or the deadline is postponed, tensions will ease. Investors would return to fundamentals. A hawkish ECB (possible rate increases) facing a dovish SNB (low inflation) would push the pair higher.

Targets: test resistance at 0.9250 and an attempt to secure above 0.9272 (EMA50 on the weekly chart)–0.9300.

3. Prolonged uncertainty (flat). If rhetoric persists without concrete action, the pair may remain range-bound between 0.9190 and 0.9250 until new inflation figures from Germany and eurozone retail sales are released later this week.

See also: EUR/CHF — scenarios of movement on 07.04.2026

Conclusion

EUR/CHF is trading by geopolitics rather than by economics. Investors are advised to monitor headlines from the Strait of Hormuz closely until Trump's ultimatum expires. A breakout of the current range is likely to be sharp and will most probably be driven by political, rather than economic, catalysts.

Economists forecast that the consumer price index will rise by 1% in March — the steepest monthly increase since 2022—after the war in Iran pushed pump prices up by about $1 per gallon. At the same time, according to a survey of economists ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the core CPI, excluding energy and food, is likely to increase by 0.3% month on month.

This price shock, driven by geopolitical events, forces consumers into difficult choices. The sharp increase in gasoline costs hits household budgets directly, prompting cuts in discretionary spending. Those who rely on frequent driving for work, and low- and middle-income households for whom fuel makes up a significant share of expenses, will be especially affected.

However, as forecasts indicate, inflationary pressure will not be limited to energy prices alone. The rise in core CPI points to a broader spread of inflationary trends. This may reflect a domino effect: higher energy costs drive up raw material and transportation expenses for producers, which, in turn, show up in higher prices across a wide range of goods and services.

This situation poses additional challenges for the central bank. On one hand, it must curb inflation to preserve price stability and the purchasing power of the national currency. On the other hand, overly aggressive tightening of monetary policy could slow economic growth, which is already under pressure from external factors. Finding the optimal balance between inflation control and support for activity becomes a top priority.

Currently, oil prices are moving rapidly toward $120 per barrel, as key Middle Eastern energy assets remain at risk of renewed attacks at any time. Pressure from Trump to force Iran to reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has also failed.

Last Sunday, OPEC+ warned that damage to Middle Eastern energy assets will have a long-term impact on oil supplies even after hostilities with Iran end, and approved a symbolic increase in production quotas for the coming month.

The release midweek of the minutes from the central bank's March policy meeting could shed light on officials' concerns about inflation or on the economic consequences of the conflict with Iran and the associated disruptions to energy and other commodity flows.

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to consider how to take the 1.1550 level. Only that will allow targeting a test of 1.1590. From there, a move to 1.1630 is possible, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1662. In the event of a drop in the instrument only to around 1.1520, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If there is nobody there, it would be wise to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1500 or to open long positions from 1.1485.

As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3245. Only this will allow targeting 1.3266, above which breaking through will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3300 area. In the event of a decline, bears will try to seize control of 1.3210. If they succeed, a break of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3180, with a prospect of reaching 1.3160.

In futures markets, prices are materially lower. However, for US producers to make money, WTI needs to be in the $62–70/bbl range. In reality, the Texas grade is trading above $100. Longer-dated contracts are cheaper. That creates a "now-or-never" situation that allows producers to capitalize on Donald Trump's "drill, baby, drill!" appeal.

Dynamics of spot and futures oil prices

Strong demand is driving up premiums on benchmark grades. In the US, premiums reach as much as $18/bbl. Saudi Arabia is selling its flagship Arab Light to Asian buyers at a record premium of $19.5. Riyadh can bypass the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz via pipelines and is actively doing so; the alternative route can carry roughly 5 million b/d.

The US could theoretically export twice that amount — a prospect that would surely please an administration focused on energy security — but constrained oil-infrastructure capacity limits realistic upside to about 5–6 million b/d.

Dynamics of Saudi crude premiums

Can OPEC+ help the oil market? At the summit, alliance members agreed to raise quotas by 206,000 b/d starting in May. In practice, that move is largely symbolic. Given conditions in the Gulf, members are unlikely to be able to materially lift output. At best, they may hold production at current levels.

The IEA argues that declining global supply, logistics bottlenecks, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz make the current oil crisis larger than 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. It is surprising that prices are not rising as fast as four years ago — perhaps Brent and WTI bulls expect President Trump to delay his ultimatum to Iran again, as he has done before.

But if the US does attack Iranian energy infrastructure and turns life there into hell, North Sea and Texas grades could resume an upward trend at the snap of a finger.

Technically, the daily chart shows that Brent bulls are attempting to hold above the moving averages. A 1?2?3 reversal pattern failed to complete earlier, which signals seller weakness. A necessary condition to re-establish the uptrend is a return of the North Sea grade to $114.5 and $117/bbl. Under that scenario, the risk of a rally toward $124 and $130 would rise, providing a basis for new long positions.

The test of the 159.71 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 points.

In the second half of the day, financial markets will be influenced by both international events and economic data. Traders will be closely watching for new statements from US President Donald Trump regarding his stance on the confrontation with Iran. His remarks could trigger sharp volatility, as market participants closely monitor developments in the Middle East, assessing their potential impact on the global economy and commodity prices.

In addition to geopolitical tensions, markets will focus on upcoming US economic data. In particular, this includes the weekly ADP employment report, which serves as a leading indicator of labor market conditions. Data on changes in durable goods orders will also be released, reflecting investment activity and the state of industrial production. Additionally, investor sentiment may be influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee member Austan D. Goolsbee. Amid uncertainty regarding the future course of Fed monetary policy, his comments on inflation, economic growth, and interest rates will be closely analyzed for clues about the central bank's next steps.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.75 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.20 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.20, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points). Growth in the pair today can be expected if US data comes in strong.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.52 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.75 and 160.20 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.52 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 159.26, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may increase further if weak data is released.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.75 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.52 and 159.26 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3237 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to around 1.3261.

The first half of the day was marked by the negative impact of weak UK Services PMI data on the GBP/USD pair; however, pound buyers managed to withstand the pressure. Traders appear to have temporarily set aside domestic UK economic concerns and shifted their focus back to the geopolitical arena, particularly the Middle East. Incoming signals and expectations regarding a possible resolution of the conflict between the US and Iran began to have a stabilizing effect on market sentiment. As the prospect of escalation fades and hopes for de-escalation come to the forefront, investors tend to reassess their positions. Expectations of a near-term easing of tensions in the Middle East—which could reduce risks for the global economy, including the UK—are supporting renewed demand for riskier assets, including the British pound. Thus, the pound's short-term weakness caused by local data has been temporarily offset by broader expectations tied to geopolitical stability.

In the second half of the day, traders' attention will be focused on further statements by US President Donald Trump regarding his stance on the conflict with Iran. Any comments from him could trigger volatility, as the market closely monitors developments in the Middle East and evaluates their potential impact on the global economy and commodity markets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3269 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3330 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3330, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points). Pound growth today can be expected after weak US data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3245 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3269 and 1.3330 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3245 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3186, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3269 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3245 and 1.3186 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1544 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1568 and even exceeded it.

Recently, the euro has shown noticeable strengthening, supported by positive data. The latest PMI report allowed buyers to return to the market, albeit temporarily.

In the second half of the day, market participants' attention will be focused on several key macroeconomic reports that could significantly influence further movement. The main event will be the release of the weekly ADP employment change data. Sustained job growth typically signals economic strength, while a slowdown may indicate potential difficulties. Alongside employment data, figures on durable goods orders will also be released. Growth in orders indicates increasing demand for products, which positively impacts the outlook for the manufacturing sector and may support economic growth—ultimately strengthening the dollar.

However, even greater attention will be paid to statements by Trump regarding the Middle East and the war with Iran. It is worth noting that the ultimatum has already expired, and no action has been taken by the United States.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1577 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1625. At 1.1625, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry. Growth in the euro today is likely only after weak US labor market data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1552 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1577 and 1.1625 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.1552 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1507, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1577 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1552 and 1.1507 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Gold (XAU/USD) has paused its downward movement, remaining within the range of the previous session and lacking strong momentum for growth. Prospects for an urgent agreement between the US and Iran are fading in light of President Donald Trump's ultimatum, which expires Tuesday evening regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation supports the US dollar, weakening the position of the precious metal.

In addition, expectations of global monetary tightening may serve as an additional bearish catalyst for gold. Market participants increasingly believe that the military-driven surge in energy prices could trigger a resurgence of inflation, forcing major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to adopt a more hawkish stance.In particular, oil prices surged to a four-week high after Trump toughened his rhetoric toward Iran, threatening strikes on civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached on time. In response, an adviser to the speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that there is no intention to concede, noting that Trump has about 20 hours left to "capitulate," otherwise his allies would be pushed "into the Stone Age." Such statements increase the likelihood of escalation in the Middle East and sustain the risk premium in oil prices.

At the same time, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released on Monday showed a disappointing Services PMI, which fell to 54 in March from 56.1 a month earlier, signaling a slowdown in growth momentum. Meanwhile, inflation indicators strengthened: the prices-paid index jumped to 70.7 from 63. This backdrop is complemented by last Friday's strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which highlighted the resilience of the labor market and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer to contain inflation.

As a result, the current environment favors bullish sentiment for the US dollar and points to a downward trajectory as the path of least resistance for gold prices. Fresh US macroeconomic data could act as a catalyst for further movement.

From a technical perspective, gold bulls need to break above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) to gain a chance for confident growth. However, with oscillators still negative, bulls currently lack sufficient strength.

Recently, the euro has shown steady growth during the first half of the day. Today, encouraging data on Services PMI for eurozone countries has already created a positive backdrop. These indicators, reflecting the state of the economy, inspire investor confidence as they point to a potential recovery in the services sector. Strong PMI readings are typically interpreted as a sign of healthy economic activity, making euro-denominated assets more attractive. On the other hand, the complete absence of new alarming news from the United States regarding a potential escalation around Iran is also supporting the euro. Tensions in the Middle East are a risk factor for the global economy, contributing to rising energy prices and increasing uncertainty.

In the second half of the day, market participants' attention will be focused on several important macroeconomic data releases that could significantly impact asset price movements. The key event will be the release of the weekly ADP report. This indicator provides a preliminary view of the health of the private sector and its job creation dynamics. Alongside labor market data, figures reflecting durable goods orders will also be published. This indicator serves as an important gauge of manufacturing activity and corporate investment spending. An increase in orders suggests rising demand for products, which positively affects the outlook for the manufacturing sector and supports overall economic growth.

Additional importance will be given to remarks by Federal Reserve Open Market Committee member Austan D. Goolsbee. In the context of the current economic environment and uncertainty regarding the Fed's next steps, communication from policymakers is of primary importance.

If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1575 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1595 and 1.1628;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1550 may lead to a decline toward 1.1530 and 1.1490;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3280 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3315 and 1.3345;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3249 may lead to a decline toward 1.3212 and 1.3182;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.74 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.94 and 160.21;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.53 may lead to a decline toward 159.29 and 159.09;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1585, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1543, on a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3289, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3237, on a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.6959, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.6920, on a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3930, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3907, on a return to this level;

The US dollar remains resilient, continuing to serve as a key instrument for investors against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions. Its traditional role as a "safe haven" supports demand; however, structural issues—particularly the US twin deficits (budget and current account)—continue to loom over the currency as a long-term risk.

Currently, the dollar is trading near its March high—the highest level since the beginning of the year—supported by concerns about rising inflation amid the conflict in Iran and stable macroeconomic data from the United States. High inflation and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, as it is in no rush to cut rates, provide short-term support for the US currency. Nevertheless, these factors are unlikely to offset fundamental vulnerabilities for long. As geopolitical tensions ease and the risk premium declines, the market expects the dollar to resume a downward trend toward the end of the year.

The issue of the twin deficit is gradually coming to the forefront. The United States faces two simultaneous gaps—fiscal and trade—which traditionally put pressure on the currency. According to the US Treasury, the budget deficit for the current fiscal year has already exceeded $1 trillion, while total national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, corresponding to a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120%. Rising interest payments on government debt reduce fiscal flexibility and limit the ability to invest productively, increasing the risks of weakening monetary policy independence.

At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on external financing: about a quarter of Treasury bills are held by foreign investors, with China and Japan remaining the largest holders (according to a European Parliament report on US debt). Although Washington is not facing a liquidity crisis, maintaining the confidence of international investors is becoming a key condition for stability.

Today, the dollar largely maintains its position due to the lack of a real alternative as the world's reserve currency and the relatively hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. However, if the conflict in the Middle East subsides, market focus will shift from short-term risks to fundamental imbalances. In this case, a worsening fiscal position and potential acceleration of rate cuts could lead to a noticeable correction in the dollar, returning it to a downward trend after a period of relative strength.

From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, has been fluctuating within a familiar range over the past five weeks and does not show bullish confidence. A breakout and consolidation below the 200-week simple moving average in April 2025— for the first time since November 2021—favors long-term bears. On the daily chart, oscillators are positive. The index is trading above key moving averages, so in the near term prices are not ready for a significant decline.

Today, Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair nearly reached the round level of 160.00 but is showing signs of uncertainty in its upward movement, remaining below this key mark due to mixed fundamental factors.

According to Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs, household spending in February declined by 1.8% year-on-year, reinforcing the downward trend after a 1.0% drop the previous month and marking the third consecutive decline. On a monthly basis, spending rose by 1.5% for the first time in three months, partially offsetting January's 2.5% decrease, but the result fell short of analysts' expectations. Weak statistics increased pressure on the yen, supporting USD/JPY quotes.

An additional negative factor for the Japanese currency remains geopolitical instability: the war in Iran raises risks for Japan's economy, given its dependence on oil imports from the region. This reduces the likelihood of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan and strengthens bearish sentiment toward the yen. At the same time, expectations of possible government intervention to curb excessive weakening of the national currency are limiting further yen losses.

On the international stage, tensions are escalating: Iran has rejected a ceasefire proposal, while US President Donald Trump has threatened harsher measures if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These developments, combined with rising energy prices and the risk of increasing inflationary pressure, may force the US Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, supporting the dollar as a reserve currency and contributing to the rise of USD/JPY.

Today, market attention is focused on the release of US durable goods orders data, which could influence the pair's dynamics during the North American session. Nevertheless, the key driver remains the development of the conflict between the US and Iran, amid declining expectations of de-escalation and the approaching deadline set by Trump. Given the current fundamental conditions, an upward direction for USD/JPY appears preferable, confirming the potential for further growth from the local lows seen in mid-February.

From a technical perspective, the picture remains the same: the pair is trading above all moving averages, oscillators are positive, favoring the bulls. The nearest resistance is at 160.00, with support at the 9-day EMA. The path of least resistance is upward.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The wave structure on the hourly chart has taken on a rather complex appearance. All recent waves have formed within roughly the same price range and are similar in size. Thus, it is currently easiest to conclude that a sideways market is present. In my view, this is not truly a sideways market. Rather, these are unreadable movements formed as a result of constantly changing geopolitical conditions. At the moment, traders do not understand what to expect next in the Middle East.

On Monday, the news background gave bulls a chance to continue the morning rally in the second half of the day, but, as has often been the case in recent weeks, economic reports did not interest traders. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than both expectations and February's reading, which could have triggered further growth of the pair toward 1.1577 and higher. However, traders preferred to continue waiting for a decision from Donald Trump, who could have authorized a new missile strike on Iran as early as yesterday, but instead postponed the decision until today. In my view, these constant delays change very little, as Iran does not intend to comply with Trump's demands or follow US directives. One may have different opinions about both Iran and the United States, but the conflict in the Middle East was provoked by Trump. Now, the US president appears unsure how to achieve his objectives and continues to threaten new bombings of Iranian territory. If the conflict escalates (and the probability is very high), oil prices will continue to rise, and traders may return to buying the US dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the US dollar. Thus, the downward movement may continue toward the same Fibonacci level of 1.1474. Earlier, the pair closed above a descending trend channel, which slightly improves the outlook for bulls compared to bears. However, geopolitics remains the decisive factor. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 143 long positions and 8,915 short positions. Thus, over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 200,000, while short positions amount to 199,000. Two months ago, bulls had more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Undoubtedly, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment. In particular, all market attention is now focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to intensify and expand geographically. Therefore, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. For now, the dollar is extracting maximum benefit from this situation.

Economic Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• US – Change in Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

On April 7, the economic calendar contains one fairly important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be seen in the second half of the day—unless traders ignore this report as well.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.1577 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1440. These positions can still be held. Buy positions will become possible after consolidation above the 1.1577 level, with a target of 1.1696.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation has shifted back to "bearish." The last completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the most recent downward wave confidently broke the previous low. The news background remains weak for the pound, while geopolitics provides bears with an almost complete advantage in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the strengthening of the US currency in recent months. Bulls can only hope for the end of the war in the Middle East, a drop in oil prices, and a ceasefire by all parties involved.

On Monday, the news background could have supported bullish trading, but the US ISM Services PMI was ignored, as were many other reports in recent weeks. The ISM index showed a value of 54.0, which was below traders' expectations. Thus, in the second half of the day, the dollar could hardly count on support. Today, traders' attention will again focus on developments in the Middle East, as a new deadline set by Donald Trump expires today. If by evening the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened and Iran does not agree to a ceasefire demanded by Washington on its terms, we will most likely see another strike on Iranian infrastructure. Therefore, at the moment, the war in the Middle East is much closer to a new escalation than to resolution. Tehran is also ready to carry out new strikes on Middle Eastern infrastructure if attacked by the US and Israel, particularly targeting communication and technological facilities.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above a downward trend channel, which brought absolutely no benefit to the bulls. A rebound from the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3340 was observed, followed by a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the beginning of a new decline. A consolidation below the Fibonacci level of 76.4% – 1.3215 will increase the likelihood of further decline toward the level of 1.3044. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,845, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively: 51,000 vs. 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction began while the bullish trend remained intact, and then the Middle East conflict began intensifying almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only driver behind the strengthening of the US dollar.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK:

• US – Change in Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

On April 7, the economic calendar contains one important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be present on Tuesday, but mainly in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below the 1.3177–1.3199 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3016. Buying opportunities were available after a rebound from the 1.3177–1.3199 level with a target of 1.3341–1.3352. These positions can still be held open today.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

S&P 500 performance

Geopolitics continues to drive markets, and with reason. According to Miller Tabak + Co.,when oil prices in the past rose by 60% and stayed high, the S&P 500 fell by about 20%, sometimes more. Since the start of 2026, Brent has added about 80%, and WTI — about 96%. Even after a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, production will take time to recover, so both benchmark crudes are likely to remain elevated for a long stretch. Does this doom the broad index?

Other models suggest it does not. Seasonality favors the S&P 500. Historically, April is the second-strongest month of the year after November, partly because mid-spring tax payments leave households and companies with funds that often flow back into US equities.

Seasonal S&P 500 performance

Major banks and firms are flagging a buying opportunity. Morgan Stanley recommends increasing exposure to cyclicals and high-quality growth names, while Yardeni says it is time to buy Big Tech. Valuations have been reset: forward P/E for the Magnificent Seven has fallen to 20.6, nearly comparable with the S&P 500's forward P/E of 19.6. AI-driven productivity and massive investment remain a structural tailwind for tech companies.

Goldman Sachs notes positive flows from the so-called "fast money" cohort — trading advisers and volatility-driven strategies. That group sold global equities about $240 billion in March. Goldman estimates that fast money will buy roughly $55 billion of equities in April, including about $20 billion into US stocks.

Therefore, seasonality and short-term capital flows — especially from fast money — are working in the S&P 500's favor, yet history still sounds a warning: a sustained period of high oil prices is deeply unfavorable for the broad index. It feels out of sorts.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is testing the bears' second line of defense — the red moving average. The prior strategy of fading rallies at 6,635 and 6,665 remains valid. An alternative short trigger would be the bulls' failure to hold the index above fair value at 6,590.

Meanwhile, BitMine, led by Tom Lee from Fundstrat, continues to actively expand its digital asset portfolios. Last week, 71,252 ETH were acquired, significantly increasing their Ethereum holdings. The company's balance now stands at an impressive 4.803 million ETH. This volume is equivalent to approximately 3.98% of the total supply of this cryptocurrency, underscoring BitMine's serious intentions regarding Ethereum.

Michael Saylor's company, Strategy, known for its insightful investment strategies, is also actively increasing its positions in the digital asset market. Last week, the company made another large purchase, adding 4,871 Bitcoins to its portfolio. This transaction reflects Strategy's sustained confidence in the long-term potential of the first cryptocurrency. This acquisition is part of the company's ongoing policy of increasing its stake in Bitcoin. Against the backdrop of current market conditions, characterized by high volatility and substantial growth opportunities, Strategy LLC demonstrates a determination to capitalize on prevailing conditions. The total volume of accumulated Bitcoins now strengthens the company's position as a significant holder of this asset, which may influence market sentiment and price formation.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the expectation of an ongoing bullish market in the long term, which has not disappeared.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $69,000, with a target of $69,600. Around $69,600, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $68,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $69,000 and $69,600.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $68,400, with a target of a drop to $67,700. Around $67,700, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $69,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $68,400 and $67,700.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,107, with a target of $2,126. Around $2,126, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,091 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,107 and $2,126.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,091 with a target for the drop to $2,069. Around $2,069, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $2,107 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,091 and $2,069.

Amid these geopolitical tensions, Brent crude oil prices have surpassed the $111 per barrel mark, demonstrating a 0.7% increase at the end of the previous trading session. In turn, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices approached $116, closing at the highest level since June 2022—an indicator of significant demand revival and risk perception in the market.

On Monday, President Trump expressed optimism regarding the negotiations with Iran, describing them as "going well." He also highlighted the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as "a very important priority." However, despite the assurances of the American leader, the market's reaction, reflected in sustained oil price rises, indicates that market participants remain skeptical of a quick resolution and are likely factoring in potential supply disruptions.

Iran has warned that in response to such strikes, it will intensify its own attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf—a move that could exacerbate the global fuel shortage and harm the world economy. The ongoing war, now in its sixth week, has already significantly shaken the oil markets, causing a serious supply shock.

If Trump moves into a "devastation" mode, and Iran continues retaliatory attacks that are more devastating and larger in scale, oil prices are likely to continue rising, approaching $120. As the war drags on, signs of growing concerns about short-term supplies are also emerging. The price difference between nearby WTI oil contracts on Monday at one point approached $15.50 per barrel, marking one of the highest levels recorded.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at $118.88. This will allow targeting $120.08, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The furthest target will be the $124.86 area. In the event of an oil price decline, bears will attempt to take control at $113.36. If this is successful, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions, potentially driving oil down to a low of $106.83 with prospects of falling to $100.40.

Oil prices also climbed amid choppy trading, while index futures lost momentum as investors remained cautious ahead of the deadline set by President Donald Trump for a peace deal with Iran. Preliminary ceasefire signals were tempered by the risk of renewed escalation.

Brent crude rose by 1.2% to above $111 per barrel. After Monday's gains on hopes for a ceasefire, global equity markets are under pressure as lingering uncertainty about the war keeps investors sidelined. US equity futures fell by about 0.4%. Asian indices pared earlier gains and were up 0.5%, largely led by technology stocks viewed as less exposed to the six-week Middle East conflict.

Worldwide attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the key artery for Middle East oil flows, while the US president insists any agreement must guarantee uninterrupted transit through the waterway. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s G10 currency volatility index rose by 17 basis points on Monday to 7.98%, though it remained within its recent range.

According to AT Global Markets, market participants will remain highly sensitive to further developments in the Middle East, which continue to be the dominant factor driving sentiment. Throughout the day, all eyes will be on the news feeds, but for now, the trend appears tilted toward a de-escalation, experts estimate.

Yesterday, Trump again said that talks with Iran were going well, without specifying with whom, as Tehran publicly denies such discussions.

Elsewhere, gold oscillated between gains and losses, trading around $4,650 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by one basis point to 4.34%. Bitcoin slid by more than 1.5%, trading around $68,700.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,590. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $6,603. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,616, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,577. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,563 and could open the way to $6,552.

The price test at 159.55 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose towards the target mark of 159.80.

The yen declined against the dollar on news that Japanese households cut spending for the third consecutive month, even after real wages turned positive, highlighting the unstable state of domestic demand. According to the data, inflation-adjusted household spending in February decreased by 1.8% compared to the same period last year, a faster pace of decline than the 1% drop in January. Economists had expected a 0.8% decline.

The decrease in household spending, especially one as significant, indicates that consumers remain cautious. The reasons for this caution are multifaceted, ranging from concerns about future economic stability to the ongoing impact of inflationary pressure on real incomes. Geopolitical situations around the world should not be overlooked either.

The yen's reaction underscores how sensitive financial markets are to economic signals from Japan, as the data presented paints a picture of unstable domestic demand, which remains a limiting factor for economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 159.85 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.20 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.20, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30-35-pip move back from the level. It's best to resume buying the pair during corrections and serious USD/JPY pullbacks. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.71 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the resistance levels of 159.85 and 160.20 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 159.71 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.38 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip reversal from the level). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.85 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the support levels at 159.71 and 159.38 is expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3256 occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. The second test at 1.3256 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, allowing the execution of scenario #2: selling the pound, resulting in a decline of more than 30 pips.

The British pound experienced significant pressure following the release of fresh data on the US manufacturing sector's business activity index. The indicator, reflecting the state of the American economy, demonstrated impressive resilience, remaining above the important level of 54.0 points.

Today, the first half of the day looks similar, but for the UK. Market players are awaiting the March data on the services sector's business activity index. This is one of the key indicators of the British economy's health, reflecting activity in one of its critical sectors. The publication of the composite PMI index will also be significant. This indicator, which combines data from both manufacturing and services, will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the country's economic situation. Low results for either of these indexes, especially both, could trigger a more rapid decline in the British pound. Conversely, if the published figures exceed expectations, the pound may strengthen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3237 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to 1.3261 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3261, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level. Expecting a rise in the pound today is only reasonable after very strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3217 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.3237 and 1.3261 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3217 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3186 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3237 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the support levels at 1.3217 and 1.3186 is expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1547 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair only declined by 10 pips.

Yesterday's trading was marked by noticeable growth in the US dollar. The rise was directly correlated with the release of data on the PMI index for the United States services sector. The index value was recorded as confidently surpassing the threshold of 54.0 points, a clear indicator of resilience and active development in this area of the economy. Financial markets reacted to this positive information without delay. Traders, interpreting the strong data as evidence of the American economy's robust health, increased their investments in dollar assets. This, in turn, increased demand for the dollar and, consequently, led to its significant strengthening against a basket of major currencies.

Today, during the first half of the day, market participants' attention will be focused on the release of significant macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. Special interest is expected to focus on indicators related to business activity in the services sector. The publication of this data will allow for an assessment of current growth rates and an understanding of whether the positive trend observed in previous periods continues. Additionally, investors will pay attention to the Sentix investor confidence index. This survey reflects market participants' expectations regarding future economic conditions. The combination of these three metrics will provide the market with a complete set of information necessary for making informed investment decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1544 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1568. At point 1.1568, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will rise sharply today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1529 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1544 and 1.1568 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1529 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1507, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the war in the Middle East escalates. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1544 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the support levels at 1.1529 and 1.1507 is expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Yesterday marked a significant strengthening of the US dollar, which was directly linked to the release of the PMI data for the US services sector. The report showed that the index remained comfortably above the key 54.0-point mark, indicating sustained resilience and dynamic growth in this sector of the economy. A level above 50 points in the PMI index is traditionally interpreted as a signal of expanding business activity. This unambiguously indicates that the services sector, the locomotive of the American economy, demonstrates enviable viability despite potential global challenges and uncertainties.

Today, in the first half of the day, all market participants' attention will be focused on important macroeconomic indicators coming from the Eurozone. Special interest is directed towards the data on the services PMI. This indicator is one of the key barometers of the region's economic state, reflecting dynamics in one of the most significant sectors. The publication of the composite PMI index will also play an important role in shaping market sentiment. This indicator, which combines data on industrial production and the services sector, provides a more comprehensive view of overall economic activity.

In addition, investors' attention will be concentrated on the Sentix investor confidence indicator. This survey reflects market participants' expectations regarding future economic conditions. A high confidence level may signal investors' readiness to invest, while a decline could indicate rising concerns and caution.

Regarding the British pound, the first half of the day also promises to be eventful. Market participants are anxiously awaiting the release of the services PMI data for March this year. This indicator is one of the key barometers of the British economy's state, reflecting dynamics in one of its most significant drivers. The expected data release may provide a clear picture of whether the positive momentum in this sector has been maintained or whether we will see signs of a slowdown.

The publication of the composite PMI index will also be significant. This indicator, which sums up the data from both the manufacturing and services sectors, will provide a more holistic view of the country's economic activity. Weak values in either of these indices, especially both, could trigger a more active phase of selling the British pound.

If the data coincides with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EURUSD Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 1.1550 may lead to a rise of the euro towards 1.1570 and 1.1590;

Sell on a breakout of level 1.1525 may lead to a drop of the euro towards 1.1505 and 1.1480;

For the GBPUSD Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 1.3242 may lead to a rise of the pound towards 1.3266 and 1.3290;

Sell on a breakout of level 1.3212 may lead to a drop of the pound towards 1.3182 and 1.3160;

For the USDJPY Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 159.94 may lead to a rise of the dollar towards 160.24 and 160.54;

Sell on a breakout of level 159.70 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar towards 159.40 and 159.20;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EURUSD Pair

Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1550 on a return below this level;

Buy after a failed breakout below 1.1523 on a return to this level;

For the GBPUSD Pair

Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3244 on a return below this level;

Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3210 on a return to this level;

For the AUDUSD Pair

Sell after a failed breakout above 0.6929 on a return below this level;

Buy after a failed breakout below 0.6897 on a return to this level;

For the USDCAD Pair

Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3933 on a return below this level;

Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3907 on a return to this level;

In the meantime, it has become known that Strategy has bought nearly 5,000 additional Bitcoins for approximately $330 million. The average price of the purchased coins was $67,700. As we can see, Michael Saylor's company has remained true to its main strategy over the last six years, which is not focused on software development. Thus, the total number of Bitcoins on the company's balance sheet has reached 767,000. Interestingly, since 2020, the company has invested around $58 billion in Bitcoin, with an average purchase price of $75,600 per coin. Therefore, Strategy's Bitcoin investments are currently unprofitable. Of course, if Bitcoin rises to $100,000 or $1 million, the company will make a huge profit, but judging by recent news, only Saylor's company is now buying Bitcoin.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily time frame, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as descending, while the CHOCH line remains at $97,900. Only above this level can it be considered that the downward trend has ended. The last sell signal was formed within the "bearish" FVG ($96,900 – $98,000). Thus, traders had a great opportunity to capture almost the entire recent downward movement. For now, all we can do is wait. Given no signs of a trend reversal to the upside, we believe the decline will resume. On the daily time frame, the nearest area of POI for new sell trades is within the range of $79,500 – $81,100. During the current decline, two bearish FVGs were formed, with preliminary liquidity removal for sales; however, the flat on the 4-hour time frame prevented the price from going further down.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour time frame, the price has dipped to the lower boundary of the sideways channel, formed a deviation/bounce from it, and is now heading back toward the channel's upper boundary. The area above the descending trendline (the liquidity pool) is an excellent target. If the flat persists, internal patterns do not matter. We currently trust the daily chart more, but the flat on the 4-hour time frame determines the direction and strength of the movement. Once the flat ends, attention can be shifted to the daily time frame.

Recommendations for Trading BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. However, even the level of $57,500 does not now appear to be a final stop. Among the current POI areas, the nearest bearish FVG on the daily time frame is located in the range of $79,300 - $81,200. On the 4-hour time frame, the nature of Bitcoin's movement once again shows all the signs of a flat, so only deviations of the boundaries of the sideways channel should be monitored.

Explanations for Illustrations:

CHOCH – the break of trend structure.

Liquidity – the liquidity and stop losses of traders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG – Area of price inefficiency. The price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react from such areas.

IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not receive a reaction from it but impulsively breaks through it and then tests it from the other side.

OB – Order block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position with the goal of taking liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

There are very few macroeconomic reports planned for Tuesday. Essentially, the only notable report is the durable goods orders in the US. In Germany, the UK, and the EU, second estimates of the services PMI for March will be released. What are the chances the market will notice these reports, especially given that it ignored Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rates, and the ISM index over the last two trading days?

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs can trade in any direction as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded in the ranges of 1.3175-1.3180 and 1.3259-1.3267. We still do not see any grounds for a strong and prolonged rise in the American currency (if we take into account all factors, not just geopolitics), but in the near future, geopolitics will remain the key factor in the currency market.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

1H Chart Of The GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair traded in both directions throughout Monday. The macroeconomic backdrop was once again conveniently ignored by the market. Recall that on Friday, important reports like Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate had no effect on the dollar's exchange rate, while on Monday, the ISM index for services emerged. The ISM index came in at 54.0, below expectations, so we should have seen the dollar decline and the pair rise during the American trading session. However, in reality, we observed the opposite movement. This evening, another deadline for Donald Trump is expiring, so a new operation by the US Navy and Air Force to destroy Iran's infrastructure may begin in the Middle East. Shortly thereafter, Iran may initiate its response operation to destroy the infrastructure of countries in the Middle East that support the US. Thus, the dollar could begin to rise again at any moment.

5M Chart Of The GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute time frame on Monday, three trading signals were formed. At the start of the European trading session, the pair bounced off the 1.3203-1.3212 range, allowing beginner traders to open long positions. In just half an hour, the area of 1.3259-1.3267 was tested with minimal deviation. The bounce from this area allowed for short positions to be opened, but a few hours later, the price returned to it. The second bounce provided another opportunity to open shorts, which could be manually closed profitably by the end of the day. Two out of three trades were profitable.

How To Trade On Tuesday:

On the hourly time frame, another downward trend is forming for the GBP/USD pair. There are no global reasons for a medium-term rise in the dollar, so in 2026, we expect a renewal of the global upward trend from 2025. However, for this to happen, geopolitical tensions worldwide need to begin to ease, because the dollar is currently in demand solely on geopolitical grounds.

On Tuesday, beginner traders can open new short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3175-1.3180 area or bounces off the 1.3259-1.3267 area. Consolidation above the area of 1.3259-1.3267 or a bounce from 1.3175-1.3180 will allow for long positions to be opened.

On the 5-minute time frame, trading can currently be done at the levels of 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. Today, there are no important events planned in the UK, while in the US, an important report on durable goods orders is scheduled. However, this report may also be ignored, just like the Non-Farms on Friday and the ISM index on Monday.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

1H Chart Of The EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded mixed on Monday, driven neither by geopolitics, fundamentals, nor macroeconomics. The only report of the day—the ISM Services Index in the US—was ignored by traders, which no one found surprising. The US did not deliver the promised strike against Iran, as Donald Trump postponed the deadline for negotiations regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for the third time to today. The market continues to anticipate new escalations in the Middle East, remaining tense, and the European currency still cannot establish any upward trend. Thus, the technical picture for Monday remained unchanged. We still observe the formation of a formal upward trend, while all movements of the pair depend on geopolitical events.

5M Chart Of The EUR/USD Pair

How To Trade On Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend remains relevant due to the adjustment of the trend line; however, it is merely formal, as no one is currently paying attention to technical analysis. The market continues to trade solely based on geopolitics and emotions. Therefore, the "roller coaster" may continue for a long time, and macroeconomic, technical, and fundamental factors are of little significance. Trump continually provokes both crashes and surges in the US dollar.

On Tuesday, beginner traders may consider opening short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1527-1.1531 area, targeting 1.1455-1.1474. A bounce from the area of 1.1527-1.1531 will allow for long positions with a target of 1.1584-1.1591.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to trade now include: 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Tuesday, the US durable goods orders report will be published, which is considered quite important. However, we have little doubt that this report will also be ignored. This evening, the US may carry out the promised strike on Iran, so market attention will again be fully focused on geopolitics.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.