Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and approaching storms in the Gulf of Mexico are pushing Brent crude above the psychological $100 mark.

The crypto market is undergoing its own stress test: from mysterious transfers of billions of XRP tokens to a lightning-fast Bitcoin crash that wiped out hundreds of millions of dollars in long positions within 20 minutes.

Against this backdrop, tech giants are adding new sources of concern: Meta's new AI agent Muse reportedly can compile hidden psychological profiles not only on users themselves but also on their entire social circles, erasing traditional privacy boundaries.

In this piece, we examine four key events shaping a new, highly volatile reality and assess where the main risks lie — and where opportunities exist for those who can analyze the facts.

Ideal storm for oil: geopolitics, hurricane, and fresh surge in Brent above $100

Wednesday, October 7, began as a stress test for the global oil market. While Asian traders opened the morning session, oil moved decisively higher. The price spike reflects an unprecedented convergence of factors creating a perfect storm: heated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and an approaching weather event in the Gulf of Mexico.

According to Reuters, by midnight, GMT Brent futures jumped by $0.93 (almost 1%), settling at $101.51 per barrel. US benchmark WTI also rose, adding $0.82 to reach $90.25.

This rise is not random but a logical continuation of a trend driven by the sharp confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have already had an impact.

Analysts at the National Bank of Kuwait noted in their September review that these factors brought Brent back into the "$100 club" for the first time since the escalation began.

If the market had learned to live with persistent geopolitical risk in the Middle East, now Mother Nature has entered the equation. US forecasters warn that Tropical Depression Nine is strengthening as it heads toward the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi.

It is expected to become the first full Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within the next 24 hours. On Wednesday, it should intensify into a tropical storm and make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast by Friday.

The storm could be painful for the US economy. Offshore fields that supply about 15% of US oil and 5% of gas production are at risk. Six major refineries operated by industry giants, Shell, Valero Energy, Marathon, PBF Energy, and Chevron, are also in the storm's sights.

Refineries in the US Gulf account for about half of the nation's refining capacity — a massive 18.2 million barrels per day.

"The storm is an unwelcome complication for crude, raising the prospect of production and refining disruptions at a time when the market already has enough supply-side headaches," Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said, summing up the risks to production and refining.

His words capture investor sentiment, especially against fresh fundamental data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that for the week ending October 2, commercial crude inventories in the US unexpectedly fell by 2.09 million barrels — a fact that further fueled rising prices.

High volatility driven by climate and geopolitical shocks creates attractive opportunities for speculation and profit. All instruments discussed in this article, including Brent and WTI futures, are available to trade on the InstaForex platform.

Don't miss out on the chance to benefit from current market trends. Open a trading account on the company's website now and download the InstaForex mobile app. That will let you stay on top of global events, analyze charts, and execute trades with one click.

Record 1.6 billion XRP on Binance: whales poised to crash market or false alarm?

The crypto community is once again in uproar over XRP. The trigger was on-chain analysts reporting anomalous activity by large holders. But is the situation as dire as it appears at first glance? We dig into the numbers, whale motives, and market caveats.

The alarming figures didn't appear out of nowhere. On September 18, analytics platform CryptoQuant, citing expert ArabxChain, posted on X about an unprecedented event: roughly 1.6 billion XRP flowed into Binance wallets over a 30-day period.

This is the largest inflow since March last year. The story was quickly picked up by TheStreet, and on October 7, it circulated again across crypto specialist media, prompting traders to nervously watch the charts.

Market logic is blunt: large transfers to exchanges often signal preparation for selling. Big inflows are traditionally treated as a red flag and a potential precursor to a bearish turn.

However, CryptoQuant analysts themselves urge calm. In their latest report, they stressed that coins arriving on an exchange do not automatically mean they will be immediately dumped onto the market.

Experts describe the current situation more as a cautious short-term signal than a death knell for the price.

Further scenarios depend on market behavior:

1. Bear case: If inflows continue and exchange reserves swell, the price is likely to fall as selling pressure becomes critical.
2. Bull case: If reserves remain stable and the price holds, it would indicate the market is successfully absorbing the extra supply without a crash.

Fresh data now complicates the initial narrative. BeInCrypto, citing analyst Amr Taha and CryptoQuant's calculations, reports that Binance's XRP balance actually declined between September 26 and October 4, falling from 2.704 billion to 2.631 billion tokens.

Moreover, on September 29, the lion's share of outflows (84.2%) was attributed to large withdrawals by so-called whales. Looking at the historical context (previously covered by TheStreet), inflows had stalled through spring, bottomed in summer, started to revive in August, and then surged in September.

It's important to understand whale psychology: they move billions not solely to crash spot prices. Such transfers are often preparatory steps for over-the-counter deals, or simply fund rotations between their cold wallets and custodial arrangements.

Crypto storm on October 7: Bitcoin loses $2,000 in 20 minutes as market chokes on liquidations

Early Wednesday morning, October 7, the crypto market put traders through a real stress test. In just 20 minutes, Bitcoin plunged by roughly $2,000, breaking below $84,000 and triggering a chain reaction of forced position closures. The market literally choked on liquidations, with investor losses measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

According to Bitcoin.com News, between 01:45 and 02:10 UTC, the price of the flagship cryptocurrency fell from $85,341 to $83,790, hitting a local low of $83,577. That roughly 2.1% drop occurred with almost no meaningful bounce.

On-chain trackers recorded $412.62 million in liquidated positions during that hour. Notably, only $11.79 million of that was short positions — more than 97% of losses were borne by traders who were bulls.

The scale of the morning "bloodbath" is striking: over 24 hours, long-position liquidations totaled $479 million, and 104,836 traders lost their positions. Some sources suggest that total liquidations may have exceeded $550 million, but that figure lacks independent confirmation.

The sell-off spared few other digital assets. Ether fell from about $2,688 to a low of $2,591, while XRP slid from $1.49 to $1.43 before both partially retraced losses. Nearly all top-20 tokens showed red: Uniswap lost 8.35%, and Dogecoin fell by 4.62%.

The most intriguing part of the story lies in details, uncovered by on-chain analytics account Lookonchain. First, one unlucky trader lost a 3,728 ETH long position worth $9.85 million in just three minutes when Ether broke through the $2,600 level.

Second, analysts flagged suspicious activity shortly before the crash: four newly created wallets deposited $1 million in USDC to the Hyperliquid exchange and opened short positions totaling 148.49 BTC (about $12.5 million) with aggressive 40x leverage.

There is no direct evidence yet that these bettors had insider knowledge of the imminent drop. However, such flawless, almost surgical timing raises uncomfortable questions across the market.

Dossier on you and your friends: what secrets Meta's new AI assistant Muse collects

We've grown to trust our smartphones, but what if your personal AI assistant knows more about you than you do? Even more unsettling: it may already have compiled detailed dossiers on your friends, colleagues, and acquaintances.

The subject is Muse, a personal AI agent from Meta Platforms that burst into public view on September 8.

In just a few weeks, the app was downloaded by more than 5 million users eager for an intelligent assistant at hand. While people celebrated the tech, reporters at TIME examined the AI's internal instructions and were alarmed. Meta has not publicly refuted those findings.

It turns out that Muse does more than answer questions and generate text. It operates like a tireless digital spy, updating profiles on you and your contacts every hour. The assistant records everything: how you met a new colleague, shared hobbies, what sparked an argument with your partner yesterday, and who in your circle is in strained relationships or secret alliances.

Moreover, even if you've never heard of Muse, you can still appear on someone else's "social map" — the AI scans mentions of you in other users' chats, messages, and emails.

And that's not all. Meta's AI also builds psychological profiles. Its prompts reportedly instruct it to infer users' hidden goals — things they "never said out loud" — and to identify behavioral triggers. For instance, the system may conclude you respond best to short nudges delivered after 10:00 p.m. To reach those conclusions, Muse runs a nightly audit of your day's messages.

What if you catch the AI and demand it "forget" the data? Don't count on it. Investigations by Wired and independent security researcher Karan Joshi found that original messages can remain in the system permanently. Cynically, Muse's instructions reportedly tell the agent to hide that from users and never admit that data could not be erased.

While corporate algorithms quietly build complex social graphs and analyze your behavior in secret, you can direct your appetite for analytics toward a more transparent and productive arena — the financial markets. Unlike opaque AI processes, markets require openness and clear data.

All key trading instruments referenced in our global analytics and capital management coverage are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To keep your finances under control and out of the hands of digital "spies," open a trading account and download the InstaForex mobile app today.

The GBP/USD pair also moved lower on Wednesday, again without strong local reasons, but unlike the euro, the pound remains inside the 1.3179–1.3309 sideways channel. Thus one can say the pound has found a floor and is not falling below it. Recall that on the hourly, daily, and weekly charts the pound trades in sideways channels — not just sideways, but near the lower boundaries of those channels. In the near term, either a strong rally from the lower boundary of each channel toward the upper boundary will begin, or all three flats will be invalidated. Also note the pound sits near multiple local lows across timeframes. Therefore, a liquidity sweep of recent extremes followed by an upward reversal is quite possible. As much as the market favors the dollar now, it cannot rise forever. The Bank of England could raise the policy rate at its next meeting, and the dollar has already overshot its rise many times. We see no clear reasons for further dollar strength. There is little news this week, and the French budget crisis has no direct relation to the pound.

Technically, the pound continues forming a downward trend despite the trendline breach. Remember, in a flat market, a trendline breach means little: a flat is a market pause and should not define the trend. Below the Senkou Span B line, the bearish bias remains.

On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, one sell signal formed. At the start of the European session, price broke the 1.3245–1.3248 area and fell nearly to 1.3187. Even if traders closed short positions in the evening, they still could lock in roughly 20–25 pips of profit.

COT Report

COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with selling for several months. The net position is negative, even as the long-term uptrend remains intact. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand remains high in 2026. The war between the US and Iran formally ended, but a new war inside Yemen has begun. The Federal Reserve's changed stance on monetary policy also supported the dollar, and the uptrend line was breached. However, it was breached under flat conditions, so we do not believe the uptrend is over.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy aims directly and indirectly to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains. According to the latest COT report (dated September 29), the "Non-commercial" group closed 13,100 BUY contracts and 4,500 SELL contracts. Thus, non-commercial traders' net position fell by 8,600 contracts over the week.

Analysis GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. The Fed's decision and stance have greatly changed the outlook for the US dollar and the market's attitude toward it. We would say a "black swan" has arrived in the market twice this year and supported the dollar when no one expected it. Now a third "black swan" — in the form of the war in Yemen, which could potentially lead to a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait — may arrive.

For October 8 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3301) and Kijun-sen (1.3245) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price has moved 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which you should take into account when determining trading signals.

No important publications or events are scheduled today in the UK, while the US will publish the initial-jobless-claims report, which is of little importance to traders. The pair will most likely remain within the two-week sideways channel today.

Brief summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider the 1.3096–1.3115 area as a target for short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3179–1.3187 area. A rebound from 1.3179–1.3187 would make 1.3245–1.3248 targets for long positions.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each trader category.

The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward move on Wednesday—without any clear reason. The downtrend persists, as shown by the trendline, and no one in the market even asks what is driving the dollar's continued strength. Yesterday the euro fell again. Of the day's important events, only the Federal Reserve minutes were published late in the evening, after the latest rally had already finished. Thus, the Fed minutes could not have caused the new dollar rise. One might argue the euro is under pressure because of the French budget crisis, but that reason looks like an excuse. With the same logic, the market could find a million reasons every day to keep buying the dollar for months. Remember that fiscal problems exist not only in France but also in the United States. Sovereign-debt issues are not confined to the EU—they exist in America too. Monetary tightening is not happening only in the US but also in the eurozone. Bond yields are rising in both the EU and the US. Therefore, the euro and dollar are at least on equal footing, yet for a month we have seen the euro collapse versus the dollar.

Technically, the downtrend formation continues. The market has been buying the dollar for the fifth consecutive week. The trendline remains relevant, price sits below the Ichimoku lines, and therefore the pair's decline is fully consistent from a technical point of view.

On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, one sell signal was generated. During the European session, price closed below 1.1221, allowing traders to open short positions. Note that a day earlier, a sell signal also formed in the 1.1266–1.1274 area, which could carry over into Wednesday's trading.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated September 29. On the weekly TF chart, non-commercial traders' net position remains "bearish" and fell significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the euro in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has, for a time, acted as a "reserve currency."

However, we still do not see any fundamental factors for further strengthening of the US currency. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, and the Federal Reserve's monetary stance surprised the dollar for the second time this year. In the long term, the euro could fall even to $1.08 (the trendline), but the uptrend will remain relevant. However, in recent weeks the market has accounted only for factors positive to the dollar and ignored all others.

The arrangement of the red and blue indicator lines points to an approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, longs in the "Non-commercial" group rose by 17,500, while short positions rose by 28,400. Accordingly, the net position for the week decreased by 10,900 contracts.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend. The Fed strongly aided the development of the downward trend, but that factor is unlikely to be the true reason for the dollar's strength several weeks after the meeting. The European Central Bank should have supported the euro, having raised rates twice in 2026, and Friday's US data should have provoked a dollar collapse. But the market now sees no factors supporting the euro. Thus, the dollar continues forming a strong trend that now depends only on market sentiment.

For October 8 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1221, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, and also the Senkou Span B line (1.1347) and Kijun-sen (1.1222). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, so account for this when determining trading signals. Don't forget to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Thursday, no important releases are scheduled in the Eurozone, and in the US only the secondary initial-jobless-claims report is due. We do not expect any market reaction, and today's moves will again be largely technical.

Brief summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider targets for short positions near 1.1147 if price is rejected today from the 1.1221–1.1222 area. If the trendline is breached, consider targets for long positions: 1.1362–1.1368 and 1.1405.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each trader category.

The GBP/USD currency pair also moved lower on Wednesday, but the situation for the British pound is somewhat different from that of the euro. The pound has spent the last two weeks in a sideways channel. On the daily and weekly timeframes, it is likewise in a flat. Thus, on almost any timeframe right now, you can legitimately see random movements explained by a flat. Also note that price sits near the lower boundary of all three sideways channels. It does not matter much whether those boundaries are pierced or overcome in the near term. In technical analysis, concepts include a rejection (bounce) or a breakout of a level/area/boundary. But other analytical approaches interpret the same moments differently.

We are talking about liquidity grabs and deviations. A liquidity grab is a sharp, often manipulative drop through some level or technical reference that sits above pending orders and Stop Losses. A liquidity grab may look like a breakout, yet it is not one in the structural sense. In that case, market-makers aim only to obtain the liquidity needed to open positions in the opposite direction. To buy a currency, someone must sell it. Traders even have a phrase for this — "eating the stops." "Eating stops" is far from rare and is not merely figurative. When price is near the lower boundary of a sideways channel (especially a yearly one), it is unsurprising that Stop Losses and limit orders for buys or sells sit below and above that boundary. To capture liquidity at those orders, price can move manipulatively toward them and then reverse sharply.

Therefore, in our view, the pound is not necessarily close to a new drop or the continuation of the old one. It is close to either a bounce off the lower boundary of all three channels or to a liquidity sweep of those boundaries and recent lows. If so, given the baselessness of the current pound weakness, we would not rule out a strong rally beginning soon.

Is further decline of GBP/USD possible? Yes — because anything can happen in the market. We once didn't believe oil could hit $0, but April 2020 showed that is possible too. However, we cannot explain any convincing reasons why the dollar should continue rising. Thus, such a downside scenario is a backup — we expect something different. By the way, why did the pound fall on Wednesday if the euro's fall is blamed on the French budget crisis? What does France have to do with the pound? In our view, it is obvious that the causes of the current decline long ago ceased to be geopolitical, macroeconomic, or fundamental.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of October 8 is 79 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move within the range of 1.3129 to 1.3287 on Thursday, October 8. The higher linear-regression channel has turned down again. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice already, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3123

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3245

R2 – 1.3306

R3 – 1.3367

Trade recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its illogical downward movement. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US dollar to strengthen in the long term. So far, 2026 has been positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and inflation, which forced capital into safety and prompted the Federal Reserve to return to monetary tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat range persists between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, which supports the case for medium-term pound appreciation. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3367 and 1.3428 when price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows bearish trading, with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3129. Be cautious with short positions, as price is currently near the lower boundary of the long-term sideways channel.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) show the likely price channel the pair will trade in over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator — entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) — signals an imminent trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The EUR/USD currency pair on Wednesday predictably resumed its downward movement after a microscopic correction. Yesterday we said the dollar's fall looked like a miracle in the current circumstances. The euro's fall does not look miraculous — the single currency has been falling for a whole month. Meanwhile, the market keeps finding all sorts of reasons to buy the dollar. Consider this: what concrete grounds did the market have to buy the US currency on Wednesday if no important events occurred during the day?

Only late in the evening were the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting published — a document long treated as a mere formality. The point is that Fed minutes usually contain information the market already knows. Moreover, minutes are published with a three-week lag, so by the time they appear they have already lost much of their immediacy. Recall that at the start of the month several important US reports were released that affect Fed policy: labor-market prints and the PCE index, which many FOMC members regard as the most accurate and relevant inflation gauge. In other words, since the last meeting at least three important releases could have altered the committee's stance.

And they did. Recent remarks by Fed officials show that hawkish sentiment remains, but no one intends to hurry with tightening or "race" rate increases. Thus an October hike now looks unlikely, and December may bring only a second tightening. By contrast, the European Central Bank could have raised rates for the fourth time in 2026. That is an objective reality: eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% — up from 1.7% a year ago. The ECB has already tightened twice and faces no external constraint, so it can raise rates further. At the remaining three meetings this year, the ECB could plausibly tighten policy twice more — four hikes in total — and yet the euro keeps falling like a stone.

On Wednesday the market again found something to latch onto to buy more dollars. This time the trigger was France. Strikes and protests in Paris and other cities continue, and Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the government may bypass parliament to pass the 2027 budget, which includes spending cuts and tax increases. That detail didn't interest the market on Tuesday but did on Monday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, US fiscal problems, repeated shutdown threats, rising sovereign debt and surging yields do not seem to interest traders. The movement remains purely inertial and speculative. At this rate, the euro could even fall toward parity with the dollar.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of October 8 is 92 pips and is characterized as "high." We expect the pair to move between 1.1101 and 1.1285 on Thursday. The higher linear-regression channel has turned sideways, indicating another trend change. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area three times and formed three "bullish" divergences, which warn of the end of the illogical downtrend. However, the market is not responding to technical signals.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trade recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downward, but we still view the pair's decline as a correction before a new uptrend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitical events first, and then the Fed's "hawkish" stance, provided strong support to the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider short positions with targets of 1.1108 and 1.1101. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant, with targets of 1.1353 and 1.1414.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) show the likely price channel the pair will trade in over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator — entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) — signals an imminent trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Very few macro releases are scheduled for Thursday, and none stand out. Germany will publish trade-balance, import and export data, and the US will release weekly initial jobless claims. All of these reports are strictly secondary and unlikely to move the market even 15 pips. Therefore, we should expect technical trading again today. The euro remains in a downtrend, while the British pound has traded in a sideways channel for the past two weeks.

Analysis of fundamental events:

Thursday's key events include speeches by European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane and Federal Reserve FOMC voter Alberto Musalem. Lane may harden his rhetoric on key rates because eurozone inflation accelerated strongly to 3.8% in September — nearly double the ECB's target. However, a more hawkish tone and the prospect of a third ECB hike this year are unlikely to help the euro, since the market has already ignored ECB tightening twice. The single currency fails to rally on both rising ECB hawkishness and any softening of Fed hawkishness.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired. The US and Iran are not conducting official talks at present, while Donald Trump keeps saying a deal could be signed after the US Congressional elections. Trump also repeatedly claims the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end very soon — a refrain he has used for nearly two years — so the market gives such statements little credence. Recent headlines note Yemen has launched a military operation against the Houthis, and the Houthis continue to strike Saudi energy infrastructure and tankers. Thus tensions in the Middle East are heating up, contrary to the US president's statements.

General conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, currency pairs could calmly show further declines, since the move no longer depends on fundamentals, geopolitics, or macroeconomics. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1198–1.1218 area, and the pound sterling from the 1.3175–1.3180 area. Volatility today may be low.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H chart of the GBP/USD pair

The GBP/USD pair also moved lower on Wednesday for no clear local reason. However, unlike the euro, the pound has traded mostly sideways for about two weeks. So the pound shows more resilience and stability than the euro. Yesterday the only moderately important item was the Federal Reserve minutes, but as the pair's evening moves show, there was no reaction to that event — as expected. Remember that Fed minutes are largely a formality: they are published three weeks after the meeting and lose much of their immediacy. At least three important US economic reports have come out over the past three weeks that materially softened market hawkishness; those reports can't be reflected in the minutes, so the minutes' information has limited current relevance. The US dollar gained again seemingly out of nowhere — something markets have grown used to over the last month.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, one sell signal formed. During the Asian session, price broke the 1.3259–1.3267 area and spent the rest of the day drifting lower. Traders could have opened short positions at the European open, since price had not moved far from the signal point. By the end of the day, profits of roughly 40 pips could be taken.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly TF, the GBP/USD pair continues a downward move that has become a full-fledged, powerful trend. The fundamental backdrop for the dollar improved because the Fed signaled it was ready to continue tightening. However, three weeks have passed and the market still aggressively buys the dollar. Therefore, we strongly doubt Fed policy alone explains this. We view the move as illogical, inertia-driven and speculative.

On Thursday, novice traders can consider short positions with targets at 1.3096–1.3107 if price consolidates below 1.3175–1.3180. Open long positions with targets at 1.3259–1.3267 if price rebounds from 1.3175–1.3180.

On the 5-minute TF you can trade the levels 1.3043, 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641. No important events are scheduled in the UK on Thursday, and in the US only the weekly initial-jobless-claims report is due — a release that rarely triggers a market response. Thus, today's moves are likely to be technical and possibly low-volatility.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H chart of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward move on Wednesday — resumed, as it were, without a single clear reason. Of course one can point to the French budget crisis, rising geopolitical tensions globally and in the Middle East, and the Federal Reserve's continuing stance toward tighter policy. But those explanations no longer convince even the most die-hard dollar optimists. The US has its own fiscal problems, yet they do not seem to affect the dollar. The Fed does intend to keep tightening, but not necessarily at the pace markets expect. The European Central Bank has been more aggressive in tightening, which the market largely ignores. Geopolitical tensions have been elevated throughout 2026. So if there were reasons for the new dollar rise, they were formal — the market is simply taking any opportunity to buy dollars and ignoring factors that would support the euro.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, two sell signals formed. Overnight the price bounced off the 1.1267–1.1275 area for the third time, and during the European session it broke below the 1.1198–1.1218 zone. Novice traders could therefore have opened short positions as early as Tuesday, as we have noted. On Wednesday, those positions could be closed for profit, or traders could hold on and expect further decline toward the 1.1132–1.1140 area.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues a downtrend that is now a full-fledged trend. Given recent months' events, we do not believe the euro should be collapsing like a stone. Yet the market keeps buying the US dollar, ignoring events and releases.

On Thursday, novice traders can remain in short positions after two closes below the 1.1198–1.1218 area with targets at 1.1132–1.1140. Open long positions on a confirmed close above 1.1198–1.1218, targeting 1.1267–1.1275.

On the 5-minute TF consider these levels: 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1275, 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665. On Thursday, the eurozone calendar is empty, and in the US only the secondary weekly initial-jobless-claims report is due. We do not expect it to trigger any notable market reaction. Trading during the day will again be largely technical.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

According to the Tankan, Japanese firms expect consumer prices to rise about 2.5% year-on-year on average in five years — slightly below the 2.6% recorded in the previous survey but still materially above levels typical of decades of deflation. For the first time in decades, Japanese companies have a real opportunity to pass rising costs onto consumers, and they are actively doing so.

Tokyo inflation data released on October 2 were a cold shower for those hoping price pressure would remain moderate. The core consumer-price index for the metropolitan area, excluding fresh food, jumped to 2.7% year-on-year — well above the 2.3% consensus and markedly higher than August's 1.8%. This is the first time since January that Tokyo inflation has reached or exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target, and importantly, the acceleration is not isolated but part of a broader front of rising prices.

Despite these signals, the BOJ's rhetoric remains deliberately restrained. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking on October 6 at a securities conference, confined himself to the standard wording — the central bank "will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in line with economic, price and financial conditions."

Reuters reports a cautious consensus inside the central bank. The fact that the Tankan shows corporate inflation as "moving sideways" rather than accelerating relieves some of the immediate pressure that might have forced the BOJ to act urgently.

Net long JPY positioning fell over the reporting week to $4.52bn; positioning remains bullish, and the implied fair price is still below the long-term average.

Fundamentals continue to work against the yen even after two rate hikes in June and September: the interest-rate gap between the US and Japan remains significant. The 157–160 area remains key for the pair in the coming weeks.

We assume the USD/JPY reversal has occurred so long as the pair holds below 160; the probability of further decline is high. We expect a move toward 152.90 once market odds of Federal Reserve hikes decline and the Japanese economy finally feels the energy-resource shortage it has so far avoided.

The trade surplus with the United States widened to $11.2bn from $6.1bn the month before, while exports to other countries fell 8.5% after a record July. That underscores Canada's continued dependence on the U.S. market and the limited success so far in diversifying trade links.

Early-October business-activity indicators sketch a slowing but still expanding economy. The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI rose to 48.7 in September from 47.8 in August, but remained below the neutral 50 mark for the fourth consecutive month, indicating ongoing contraction in private-sector activity overall.

The Ivey PMI plunged to 58.2 from 64.3 in August, well below the consensus 65.2. Although the Ivey remains above 50 (signalling expansion), the sharp slowdown points to weakening business momentum.

There is no consensus on the Bank of Canada's next move. RBC keeps a view that rates will be held in the near term, with a gradual tightening cycle starting in early 2027. Desjardins — which earlier saw a first hike in January 2027 — now acknowledges risks that could move that timing earlier, but stresses it depends largely on oil-price dynamics.

The trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada continues to build; prospects for resumed talks remain unclear. Donald Trump has said a deal is possible but that the administration is in no rush, while the Canadian side says it is open to dialogue but will not take the initiative.

Net short positioning in CAD rose to $5.61bn over the reporting week, and the implied fair price is drifting higher.

The first attempt to hold above June's high at 1.4246 failed, but all signs point to bulls trying again to push through that resistance, after which the next target would shift toward 1.4390–1.4410. There are fewer reasons now to expect a downside turn.

The wave structure has now transformed into a more complex one. Wave C has taken a three-wave form, while the next wave is identified as wave D. The entire section of the trend that began on January 27 may have taken a five-wave corrective form A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, wave D is complete, and on August 21, the EUR/USD pair entered the phase of forming wave E, whose low should be below the low of wave C at 1.1325. The pair has very little distance left to this level, and below it, the presumed wave E may complete its formation at any time.

The euro barely had time to rise before falling again.

The EUR/USD pair declined by 75 points during Wednesday and appears ready to continue its overall downward move, which has been underway for a month with virtually no interruptions. Frankly, it is difficult to remember the last time I observed such a move with practically no corrective pullbacks. Market participants still do not need any news, events, or reports. They can buy the dollar even in the absence of a meaningful news background. Today was an excellent example of this. The only relatively important event has not even taken place yet, while the dollar has already gained 75 points. Let me remind you that over the previous two days, it had declined by approximately 100 points, so it has already recovered most of that decline.

What could have triggered the dollar's renewed strengthening on Wednesday? In fact, anything. As I have already said, the market does not need compelling reasons to buy the dollar. A reason can always be found. A crisis in France? Sell the euro. The Fed minutes will certainly be hawkish? Buy the dollar. The market does not take other factors into account. Since when are Fed minutes priced in ahead of time? Let me remind you that the minutes are not an inflation or labor-market report containing official forecasts that can be used to make certain assumptions. The Fed minutes generally reflect the internal stance of the FOMC, which is already well known at present, since virtually all officials of the U.S. central bank have spoken over the past two weeks. Therefore, the market is fully aware of the FOMC's stance and its future plans. So why did we see another rise in the dollar? Because of the budget crisis in France, which could develop into a political crisis?

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the global A-B-C-D-E corrective section of the trend. If this assumption is correct, the decline in quotes will continue toward targets below the low of wave C at 1.1325. I considered this scenario an alternative one, and if it had not been for the Fed meeting, it would have remained a secondary scenario. However, the Fed delivered a surprise, and the market was left with no other option but to initiate another wave of buying in the U.S. currency. Yet buying has already continued for several weeks, despite the absence of new factors supporting the dollar. I would not open short positions against such a news background; on the contrary, I would prepare for a reversal.

On the higher timeframe, a downward section of the trend can be seen, taking the form of A-B-C-D-E. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair may continue to decline below the low of wave C, while the internal wave structure of wave E may take a five-wave impulsive form.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a move. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair has been declining for the 20th consecutive day, apart from brief pauses. During this period, the European currency has lost 470 points. The decline in the European currency began a month ago as the market prepared for an FOMC key rate hike. Since then, the market has continued buying the dollar, using any formal reason to do so. In the language of market traders, such movements are referred to as "order flow," meaning the flow of orders. Typically, large market participants build up an order flow for some time, after which those orders begin to be executed. At that point, the fundamental backdrop accompanying the move becomes largely irrelevant—the orders have already been placed and are being executed. For example, this week the reasons for selling the euro were rather questionable. Yet the charts show a continuous one-directional move with no indication of a corrective pullback.

Last week, a public protest broke out in France against cuts in education spending. On Monday, it became known that there was a "hole" of several tens of billions of euros in the French budget. On Wednesday, reports emerged that the French Finance Minister and the current government were prepared to adopt the 2027 budget at any cost, with spending cuts and tax increases built into it. Is this a reason to sell the euro? Yes, it is. But why is the pound falling along with the European currency? Is the euro pulling the pound lower? Yes, this happens quite often, as these currencies have historically shown a high degree of correlation. Nevertheless, I believe that the dollar is strengthening rather than the euro or the pound weakening.

So far, nothing has been able to stop the decline in the European currency. Neither tighter ECB policy, nor positive economic data from the European Union, nor disappointing U.S. labor-market data, nor the technical picture and bullish patterns have been sufficient. Since imbalance 19 has been invalidated, the European currency now has every chance of falling below the psychological $1.10 level. Meanwhile, bullish imbalance 19 has turned into a bearish inverted imbalance and generated a sell signal. Buyers failed to capitalize on bullish imbalance 19, failed to capitalize on two bullish swings, and failed to capitalize on the weak U.S. labor-market data. This week, the bears did not even need to reach imbalance 24 before resuming their advance. Therefore, the current rise in the European currency remains merely a weak corrective pullback.

In September, the FOMC not only raised the interest rate but also signaled its willingness to continue tightening policy, which was enough to sustain the bears' broad advance. Even after the Fed tightened monetary policy in September and may tighten it again in October or December, I do not believe that the European currency has lacked positive developments throughout this period.

Overall, in my view, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable to the bulls. Despite the Fed's more hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. I would like to remind you that U.S. Treasury yields are hitting record highs, placing significant pressure on the budget; the U.S. economy has been slowing in recent quarters; the U.S. labor market has been disappointing more often than it has exceeded expectations; Donald Trump resumed a series of trade and non-trade disputes with numerous countries around the world in 2026; and the U.S. stock market continues to raise serious concerns due to uncontrolled leveraged investment in technology companies involved in AI development.

The current technical picture points to continued bearish momentum. Last week ended with the formation of a new bearish imbalance 24, which could provide traders with another sell signal as early as this week. Buyers can now rely only on the next nearby swing at 1.1066 and a liquidity sweep of that level.

The economic backdrop was virtually absent on Wednesday, and there were no important news releases during the day. Nevertheless, the bears once again began selling, while buyers continued to remain inactive.

There are still plenty of reasons for buyers to act in 2026. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I do not see any significant factors supporting the U.S. currency despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical developments, which supported demand for the U.S. currency for much of the first half of 2026, are no longer providing such support.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• United States – Change in Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

On October 8, the economic calendar contains only one secondary event. The economic backdrop is expected to have no significant impact on market sentiment on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has taken a one-year corrective pause. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears seven months ago, but the broader trend, which has been in place for four years, cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. Buyers may resume their advance in 2026, but their only realistic opportunity at present is the 1.1066 low established in June last year and a potential liquidity sweep of that level. The bears received a new sell signal at imbalance 19 and may receive another signal at imbalance 24 this week. Even weak Nonfarm Payrolls data and a sharp rise in inflation in the European Union have failed to help the buyers.

The GBP/USD pair was in near-freefall for eleven days, but for more than a week it has been making determined attempts to begin a corrective pullback. So far, these attempts have been completely unsuccessful. At present, any correction is being blocked by bearish imbalance 30, which acts as a resistance zone for the price. There are currently few reasons for optimism among buyers. An armed conflict began in Yemen over the weekend, while the market reacted only formally to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate. The pound had opportunities last week following a series of hawkish statements from Bank of England policymakers and a strong second-quarter GDP report, but, as we can see, these factors have so far failed to produce any meaningful result. In my view, buyers are showing weakness that is difficult to explain. The fundamental backdrop for the euro and the pound is not currently bad enough to prevent both currencies from posting even modest gains.

I would also note that traders expect the Bank of England to deliver the same two instances of monetary policy tightening as the Fed. Moreover, I will repeat that the dot plot indicates only one policy tightening. Therefore, the Bank of England could ultimately tighten policy even more than the Fed, which clearly should not support further gains in the U.S. currency. Yet the dollar is rising, in most cases.

Despite the unfavorable picture for the British pound that has developed in recent weeks, the dollar has also faced numerous negative factors in recent months. Had the Fed not decided to raise interest rates in September and signaled its willingness to tighten policy at least once more before the end of the year, I would still expect the U.S. currency to decline. I still expect this, but from lower levels. However, the bulls' opportunities now depend only on a liquidity sweep of the low from July 28 or June 24, as well as the formation of new bullish patterns, which require a sustained rise. The chart clearly shows that most reversals over the past year occurred following liquidity sweeps, so in my view, this represents a good opportunity. The reaction to bearish imbalance 30 remains weak so far, which could indicate that the bearish momentum is fading. This may provide an opportunity for the pound. A small one, but still an opportunity.

Do the bears have further prospects? In my view, there are few, but it should be acknowledged that the dollar remains in a favorable position and, until imbalance 30 is invalidated, retains strong potential for further gains. The Fed not only decided to raise interest rates but also signaled to traders that it was prepared to continue tightening. I do not believe that a prolonged decline in GBP/USD can be driven by this factor alone, but in recent weeks the market has been focused almost exclusively on pricing in an FOMC rate hike. What could prevent it from continuing to buy the dollar for several more weeks amid tighter Fed monetary policy?

Technical analysis shows that the overall picture remains fully bearish following the liquidity sweep of the May highs. The pound reacted to bearish imbalance 27, which triggered a 320-point decline in prices. The target of the decline was imbalance 25, and this pattern was both reached and broken. Bearish imbalance 30 is acting as a strong resistance zone for buyers.

There was no significant economic news on Wednesday. The Fed minutes will be released in the evening, and I do not expect any unexpected information from them. The Fed decided to raise interest rates in September, and all members of the Board voted in favor of the decision. Therefore, the minutes are unlikely to reveal a more hawkish stance than the market has already priced in, and it has done so more than once. I do not consider a strong rise in the dollar on Wednesday to be a logical consequence of the FOMC minutes, which have not yet been published.

The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I cannot and do not expect anything other than a decline in the U.S. currency. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my expectations. Geopolitical developments prompted the market to focus on the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most acute phase. The future path of FOMC monetary policy remains uncertain, while the market continues to price in only tighter policy, which is the main reason for the bears' positive outlook. In my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I would also note that GBP/USD has been trading within a range for an entire year. A range allows for virtually any movement within its boundaries.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – FOMC Meeting Minutes (18:00 UTC).

On October 8, the economic calendar contains only one secondary event. The economic backdrop is expected to have no significant impact on market sentiment on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Bears have controlled the market in recent weeks, but overall, the range is visible even on the daily chart. The liquidity sweep of the swing low from May 1 triggered a new decline, while a sell signal within inverted imbalance 27 allowed the decline to continue. Thus, the pound remains under downward pressure, which could continue toward the June lows. A liquidity sweep of those lows could then be followed by a reversal in favor of the pound. However, in the near term, the price may react once again to bearish imbalance 30, potentially forming a sell signal. In that case, the decline would continue.

Euro Performance Against G10 Currencies

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level in 17 months, while the euro is also weakening steadily against most other G10 currencies. Hedge funds are increasingly closing short positions through the franc and the yen rather than EUR/USD, viewing these crosses as a cleaner way to express a bearish outlook without the additional dollar risk premium.

France remains at the center of the pressure. The government is missing its budget deficit targets, parliament is facing political deadlock, and the country is awaiting presidential elections. Le Pen has called on the ECB to reduce the cost of servicing French debt in order to free up funds for defense and climate programs. Banque de France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau rejected the proposal, reminding her that the central bank's mandate is inflation, not the budgets of individual countries.

France's Budget Dynamics and Forecasts

Jean-Luc Melenchon threatened Villeroy with charges of high treason if he wins the election. Villeroy responded that, until now, he had known only one country where attempts had been made to intimidate a central banker: Trump's America and Jerome Powell. He said he had no intention of deviating from the central bank's mandate.

The yield premium on French bonds over German bonds has more than doubled since the end of May and reached its highest level since the 2011 eurozone crisis. The spread has retreated from its peak but remains elevated at around 139 basis points. Traders have slightly reduced expectations for ECB deposit-rate hikes, now pricing in three moves by September 2027 instead of the four previously expected.

Political turmoil in Spain is also adding pressure on the euro, reminding investors that the problem extends beyond France. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called early elections for November 29 after parliament rejected the government's housing plan. MUFG does not expect the election outcome to significantly increase risks for the single currency, although it sees the possibility of greater political uncertainty in the eurozone in the short term.

Rabobank expects EUR/USD to reach 1.12 in a year, while allowing for a short-term recovery toward 1.13 as market tensions ease. The bank believes pressure on the euro will persist due to selling of bonds issued by highly indebted eurozone countries, while uncertainty surrounding the French presidential election will continue to weigh on the pair for several more months.

Will the ECB's mandate withstand the same test of political pressure that the Fed recently faced?

Technically, on the daily EUR/USD chart, sellers are attempting to resume the downward trend. Selling toward 1.1 and 1.087 remains relevant.

Bitcoin is trading around $83,150 with strong downside potential after breaking below the uptrend channel that had formed since September 27. At the same time, we can see the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the chart, which was also broken to the downside from the 85K level, reaching the $83K level, and could even continue falling to $81, 247, around the 6/8 Murray level.

If Bitcoin rebounds above $83,000 in the coming hours—since it has been consolidating above this zone between September 23 and September 27—it could provide immediate support, and we could expect it to reach the 7/8 Murray level around $84,375; the rebound could even push it toward the 21 SMA at $85,356.

Given that Bitcoin has entered a technically bearish phase, we believe that any technical rebound toward $85,000 could be considered a signal to continue selling in the coming days.

If BTC consolidates below the 200 EMA around $81,585, we could expect it to continue falling until it reaches the 5/8 Murray level around $77,500.

Given the strong support around 81,249—which also coincides with the 6/8 Murray line and the 200 EMA—this area could be seen as a strong potential point to re-enter long positions, and we could expect the price to reach the psychological level of $90,000 if it breaks above this zone.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, a rebound toward $84,375,000 or $85,353 would be seen as a signal to sell.

Gold is trading around $4,093, rebounding after reaching the 0/8 Murray line. Although the price did not touch this line, since the indicator is around $4,062, the price hit a low of $4,066—which serves as a support level—and since then, we've seen a technical rebound, leading us to believe that gold could continue rising until it reaches the 1/8 Murray level around $4,140 in the coming hours.

Given that gold is technically oversold, we could look for buying opportunities if the price consolidates above the 0/8 Murray level. Any pullback could be considered a signal to continue buying in the coming days.

This pullback could be a clear signal to buy, since gold has technically found strong support. In the past, the $4,062 area has acted as a strong psychological barrier for gold.

So, as long as the price remains above this area, we'll have a good buy signal, expecting it to reach the $4,275 zone—where the 200 EMA is located—in the coming days.

Given that gold is in a critical zone and within the downtrend channel, we could expect it to consolidate above the 0/8 Murray level, and we could cautiously buy with targets at $4,140; if the price breaks above the 21 SMA and consolidates above this zone, it could be seen as a positive signal to continue buying with targets at $4,218. Finally, we could expect it to fill the gap left on September 23 around the 3/8 Murray level, located at $4,296.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold. The Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels; although it was previously giving a positive signal, we believe the bullish cycle could resume.

The euro is trading near its October lows and has found strong support around the -1/8 Murray level. This level represents an extremely oversold condition. Hence, we believe the euro could consolidate around this area in the coming days and may attempt to rebound and reach the 0/8 Murray level again, around 1.1230.

If the EUR/USD pair consolidates above 1.1160 in the coming days, this could be considered a signal to continue buying with targets at the 21 SMA around 1.1228. In turn, a decisive break above the downtrend channel could be seen as a signal to continue buying above 1.1230, with targets at the 2/8 Murray level around 1.1352.

On the H4 chart, if the euro consolidates above the -1/8 Murray level, a double bottom pattern could emerge. This pattern signals a reversal, meaning we could expect EUR/USD to rise above 1.1177 until it reaches the 0/8 Murray level at 1.1230. We could expect the instrument to continue rising in the short term, potentially reaching the 200 EMA around 1.1434.

In the coming hours, we should monitor the euro's performance. If EUR/USD finds strong support around the -1/8 Murray, we could use an opportunity to open a long position with a stop-loss below its current low. The first target would be the upper band of the downtrend channel, around 1.1230.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels and is currently giving a negative signal; however, we could expect a recovery in the euro over the next few days, for which the price would need to remain above 1.1160.

Crude oil is trading around $90.13, rebounding after finding strong support around the 6/8 Murray level and around $86.00. Crude oil has upside potential, and we could expect it to continue rising in the coming hours until it attempts to challenge the strong resistance at the upper band of the downtrend channel around $91.70

If crude oil continues to rise in the coming hours, we could expect it to consolidate above the 200 EMA around the psychological level of $90; a move above this zone could be seen as a signal to continue buying, with targets at $91.70 and at the 7/8 Murray level around $93.75.

Given that the 200 EMA is acting as resistance, we could expect crude oil to pull back in the coming hours, potentially retracing toward the 21 SMA at $89 or toward the 6/8 Murray level before resuming its uptrend.

If crude oil encounters strong resistance around $91.70 and fails to break above this zone, it will be seen as a signal to sell with a target at $87.50. If the price falls below that area, we even expect it to reach $83.39 in the coming days—around the lower band of the downtrend channel—and ultimately reach the 5/8 Murray line near the psychological level of $80.

For the next few hours, our outlook for crude oil remains bullish, so any pullback will be viewed as a signal to continue buying. A decisive break above $92 could be seen as a signal to continue buying in the coming days.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, which supports our bullish strategy. As long as the instrument remains above $87.50, this outlook will remain positive.

According to Trump, the faster participants in the AI industry race toward their goals, the better for the crypto industry. He gave an example of an AI agent asked to book a holiday: it would pay from a crypto wallet rather than with fiat currency. He partly explained Bitcoin's fall from a record $126,000 in October last year by saying investors sold crypto into AI stocks. Now, in his view, money is flowing back, and going forward it will continuously move between the two markets.

Trump also touched on stablecoins. He believes the growth of dollar?backed stablecoins will support demand for US government debt. Unsurprisingly, he was promoting his own stablecoin. USD1's market cap is currently around $4.45 billion, and in August the OCC conditionally approved the creation of World Liberty's national trust bank to issue dollar stablecoins and custody assets.

As for the actual flows of funds, my base case is this: the AI thesis works more as a long?term narrative, while in the near term prices will be driven by the Fed minutes, oil and yields — especially since inflows to spot ETFs continue, albeit with temporary pauses and outflows.

Bitcoin: the instrument is trading in a narrow corridor between support at $83,600 and resistance at $84,000, with outer bands at $82,800 and $84,800. The plan is built around two mirror scenarios with full breakout and bounce setups. There are two entries for longs. First, a verified breakout above $84,000: buy targeting $84,800, where I will take profits and consider a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50?day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Second, a bounce off $83,600 if a downside breakout fails and turns out to be false: buy for a return first to $84,000 and then to $84,800.

Short setups are the mirror image. On a confirmed break below $83,600, consider a short targeting $82,800, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a breakout above $84,000 fails and price falls back below that level, start a short from resistance aiming for a return to $83,600 and then $82,800.

Ethereum: the logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. Inner corridor between support $2,566 and resistance $2,587, outer bands at $2,522 and $2,623. Buy on a confirmed break above $2,587 targeting $2,623, where we take profits and consider a short position on the pullback; the same conditions apply — the price above the 50?day MA and Awesome Oscillator above zero. Buy on a bounce from $2,566 if a downside breakout is unconfirmed, aiming first for $2,587, then $2,623.

For shorts, a confirmed break below $2,566 opens a short targeting $2,522, provided the MA is above price and Awesome is below zero. A failed breakout above $2,587 that reverses gives a short back to $2,566 and then $2,522. Both indicators serve as filters to weed out false moves rather than standalone entry signals; decisions are taken only after price confirmation of the specified levels.

Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the September Fed meeting to assess how willing policymakers are to continue tightening monetary policy. ActivTrades notes that the market is reluctant to build large gold positions before greater clarity emerges. CME derivatives indicate that rates are expected to remain unchanged, but the probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at 86%.

Gold and Oil Price Dynamics

The second bearish factor for gold is rising oil prices. Following attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, shipments fell to 74% of their pre-war level, although alternative routes kept Persian Gulf exports at previous levels. Geopolitical risks are driving Brent prices higher, while expensive oil is reinforcing inflation expectations and expectations of tighter monetary policy, reducing the attractiveness of XAU/USD.

Conflicting signals from the Fed are also putting pressure on the precious metal. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid believes that rates should be raised further to contain inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says that the decision depends on whether the factors driving prices higher subside.

In September, gold fell by 6% as investors priced in tighter Fed monetary policy and a stronger dollar. This decline toward the $4,000 level stimulated demand from the People's Bank of China, which has been increasing its reserves for 23 consecutive months and added nearly 740,000 ounces in September.

Central bank demand is increasing not only in China, and central banks continue to purchase gold steadily. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel believes that rising government debt strengthens the case for diversifying reserves. According to a World Gold Council survey, 45% of the 74 central banks surveyed plan to purchase gold in 2026, the highest share since 2018. In August, central banks purchased 39 tonnes, while their purchases since the beginning of the year reached 170 tonnes.

The energy crisis, persistent inflation, and rising bond yields are creating short-term obstacles for XAU/USD. These factors have done little to weaken the precious metals industry's bullish outlook. At the 2026 LBMA conference, participants said that the case for gold is strengthening as central banks diversify their reserves and rising sovereign debt calls into question the role of government bonds as a safe haven. The survey showed that delegates expect gold to reach around $5,013 per ounce within a year, which would be 20% above current levels.

Technically, on the daily XAU/USD chart, the inability of buyers to return to the fair value range of 4170–4440 is a sign of weakness. Nevertheless, a rebound in gold from the pivot levels at $4,070 and $4,010 per ounce provides grounds for buying.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, is attracting buyers on Wednesday who are stepping in after recent weakness. The index has recouped some losses from yesterday's pullback and resumed trading above the 102.00 level. DXY is trading close to the recent peak seen on Monday, the highest level since April 2025, ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

Traders are looking for further signals about the Fed's next moves amid a reduced probability of an October rate hike. Those signals will materially affect DXY's near-term path. Despite the lower odds for a move in October, the market still prices in roughly an 85% chance of at least one Fed rate increase by year-end. Geopolitical uncertainty and rising US Treasury yields are also underpinning demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Geopolitical developments are contributing to the dollar bid. Amid the current Middle East crisis, forces aligned with Yemen's internationally recognized government and backed by Saudi Arabia have reportedly secured control of strategic points along the Red Sea coast, including areas around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. In response, the Iran-aligned Houthi group attacked key facilities in Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco refinery in Riyadh.

Meanwhile, Iran has stepped up activity in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, supporting a rebound in oil prices from monthly lows. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs. That combination provides extra support for the DXY and reinforces expectations for the continuation of the uptrend seen over the past month. As a result, any corrective pullbacks are likely to be limited and could present buying opportunities; investors should nonetheless exercise caution before concluding the index has reached a short-term peak.

Technically, DXY retains a short?term bullish bias, trading above the round 102.00 level. The bullish tone is confirmed by technical oscillators, though the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) at 71.45 indicates strong buying pressure. That reading also signals overbought conditions and warns of a potential pause or a modest corrective pullback in the near term. Support sits at 101.75, while resistance is at 102.22.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar versus major currencies for today. The largest gains were recorded against the Japanese yen.

The 158.34 price level was tested when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 158.11.

For the yen, the next direction will be determined by the minutes of the September Fed meeting, as the only significant U.S. economic release expected is the consumer credit report, meaning that the main focus will be on the policymakers' tone. The yen usually benefits from selling risky assets, but the current situation is unusual. The morning Japanese data were mixed. Wage growth came in at 3.8% against a forecast of 3.7%, although it had been 4.3% a month earlier. The leading economic indicators index came in at 118.0 versus the expected 118.1, although it had stood at 117.7 the previous month. This suggests that the economy is not deteriorating, but neither is it gaining momentum. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan continues its cautious normalization process, while Ueda had previously highlighted the risks of rising prices.

Hawkish Fed minutes will restore demand for the dollar and push the pair higher, despite the yen's safe-haven status. High oil prices are adding pressure, as Japan imports energy resources. I believe the yen will have a chance for a significant recovery only if the U.S. bond market stabilizes and policymakers' tone proves softer than expected. For now, cautious bets on a downside correction remain the only reasonable scenario ahead of the release of the minutes.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached in the 158.40 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 158.65 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.65, I will exit the long position and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the upside potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 158.24 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.40 and 158.65 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 158.24 level is broken to a new low (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.96, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return today in the event of central bank intervention. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 158.40 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.24 and 157.96 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The 1.3244 price level was tested when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.3228.

For the pound, this morning was quiet, and the market took advantage of the lack of significant drivers. Lloyds' house price index showed no change in September compared with the previous period, against a forecast of 0.2% growth. There was simply no reason for the pound to react to such a figure, so it ignored the data. Interestingly, other indicators had shown a more active picture, as the Nationwide index had previously recorded a 1.6% annual increase in house prices. Property buyers have not disappeared, but high borrowing costs are restraining the market, which is reflected in its subdued dynamics. The lack of factors supporting growth led to a further increase in short positions on GBP/USD.

But the main event of the day is still ahead. The minutes of the September Fed meeting will be released today, and the tone of the minutes will determine how far the decline may extend. I believe that hawkish comments could trigger a new wave of selling in the pound, while dovish comments could put short positions at risk of rapid closure, allowing the pair to recover a significant part of its losses.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached in the 1.3233 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.3249 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3249, I will exit the long position and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected following very weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3222 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3233 and 1.3249 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3222 level is broken to a new low (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3203, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return following strong economic data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3233 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3222 and 1.3203 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The 1.1229 price level was tested when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1206.

For the euro, today developed in a way the market usually does not expect when positive economic data are released. Industrial production in Germany increased by 2.0% in August, exceeding the forecast of 0.5%, but the single currency still lost ground against the dollar. Objectively, this result cannot outweigh what is happening across the Atlantic, where the bond market continues to attract capital and supports the dollar as the main asset for buying.

The key feature of the day is that U.S. Treasury yields, rather than European data, have the decisive influence. As long as yields remain high, any strengthening of the euro appears temporary, and buyers are reluctant to open positions without confirmation.

Attention will now shift to the minutes of the September Fed meeting, at which interest rates were raised. There is nothing else significant on the U.S. agenda, apart from the consumer credit report, which is unlikely to move prices. For the euro, this creates a mixed situation. A hawkish tone from policymakers will strengthen demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1201 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.1228. At 1.1228, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected following weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1187 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1201 and 1.1228 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1187 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1157, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1201 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1187 and 1.1157 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point this month have declined noticeably amid the extremely negative situation in the labor market, as evidenced by the US Department of Labor report released last Friday. This has led major currency pairs in the Forex market to consolidate following a limited, local weakening of the US dollar. However, the situation could change radically if the consumer inflation figures released next week show that inflation is continuing to rise, even if the increase is not particularly strong. This news could revive speculation about a rate hike later this month.

But let us return to the European continent, particularly the UK. If we look at the technical analysis charts, we can see that the British pound against the US dollar has effectively been trading within a narrow range for two weeks.

Why is this happening, and what should we expect from sterling against the dollar?

The main reason is the decline in expectations for the number of rate hikes in the United States. Previously, it was expected that the Fed could raise borrowing costs in October and December, but the weak labor market situation has reduced the probability of a rate hike this month, which has led to the dollar's weakening. However, the steady rise in US Treasury yields indicates persistent expectations of higher interest rates. Yes, a similar process is also taking place in the UK, but sterling's importance to global trade is limited compared with the dollar. In addition, the US economy remains resilient and is even showing growth. The situation in the UK remains extremely unfavorable. The country's involvement in the Ukrainian crisis has already led not only to economic problems but also to political problems, which is a significant negative factor for the local currency, especially against the dollar.

Given this, it can be assumed that GBP/USD has further downside potential if the US consumer inflation figures released next week come in above forecasts.

Forecast of the Day:

GBP/USD

The pair is showing a local downward reversal near the strong support level of 1.3180. It could fall toward this level and, after breaking below it, continue declining toward 1.3049. The 1.3236 level could serve as a selling level. The stop-loss could be placed at 1.3312.

AUD/USD

The pair is trading above the 0.6965 support level, and a break below this level could push it down toward 0.6912. The 0.6962 level could serve as a selling level. The stop-loss could be placed at 0.6993.