1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair unexpectedly dropped, even though the descending trendline was broken the same day. Certainly, such technical signals can sometimes be false. Still, it seems logical that with a weak report on durable goods orders in the US and a slight decrease in the geopolitical tension of the conflict in the Middle East, the British currency would be more likely to rise. The market deciphered this puzzle in its own way yet again, but we would still not ignore the fact of the trendline break. Sometimes a trendline can be breached while the price continues to move primarily in the same direction for a while before turning. Moreover, the euro currency has yet to overcome the 1.1366-1.1377 area and exit the sideways channel through its lower boundary. Despite the weakness of the bulls and the ongoing pressure from the bears, the dollar also cannot grow indefinitely based on a single factor. We believe that both the euro and the pound are currently in very promising positions for long positions. However, everything will depend on technical signals.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, a sell trading signal was formed on Monday when the price breached the area of 1.3319-1.3331. We are not confident in the continued decline of the British currency since we do not currently see valid reasons for it. However, reasons may arise on Wednesday or Thursday when the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England hold their meetings.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair may begin a new upward trend. After three weeks of rising, a correction was necessary, but it may be nearing its conclusion. Technically, any rise in the British currency in the coming days and weeks would be entirely justified.

On Tuesday, novice traders may open short positions if the price settles below the area of 1.3259-1.3267 with a target of 1.3175-1.3180. Longs can be considered on a rebound from the area of 1.3259-1.3267 or if the price settles above the area of 1.3319-1.3331.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders can currently focus on the levels of 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Tuesday, there are no significant events or publications scheduled in the UK or the US, so traders will have little to react to throughout the day. Consequently, trading will have to rely solely on technical factors today.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend line or channel confirms a trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of EUR/USD

During trading on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair returned to the area of 1.1366-1.1377, which acts as the lower boundary of the sideways channel that the pair has been within for a month. Thus, today will mark the third attempt either to rebound from this boundary or break through it. There is little point in discussing the reasons for the pair's new drop, as there were none, and the geopolitical backdrop can change three times a day. For example, yesterday the only somewhat significant report on durable goods orders in the US turned out to be much weaker than forecasts. Nevertheless, the dollar rose for most of the day. During the night, the market processed the information that Iran and the US had ceased hostilities in the region, but the response to this event was very short-lived, leaving it unclear what caused the dollar to rise again. One can say with certainty that the market continues to ignore all positive factors for the euro currency. So, how can one speak of a rise in the euro?

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Monday. Only by the end of the day did the price return to the range of 1.1366-1.1377, but it failed to create a new signal. Therefore, new signals should be expected today, on Tuesday.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, both trend lines have been broken and are no longer relevant. Considering all the events and market movements over the past months, we believe that the euro currency should begin a confident rise. However, the EUR/USD pair has been trading within a sideways channel for a month, and the market continues to ignore all factors in favor of the euro.

On Tuesday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1267-1.1275 if the price settles below the area of 1.1366-1.1377. Long positions can be opened upon a third rebound from the range of 1.1366-1.1377 with a target of 1.1461-1.1466. Volatility may once again be low today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders should consider the levels of 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, and 1.1745-1.1754. On Tuesday, there are no significant publications or events planned in either the Eurozone or the US. Thus, traders will find little to react to today. Technical factors will take precedence, but movements may again be weak.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend line or channel confirms a trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair exhibited movements that can hardly be described as logical. It's chaotic. It seems traders are simply unsure of what to expect from Iran and the US moving forward, leading each trader to open positions according to their personal interpretations of the situation. However, what this "understanding" entails is unknown to other market participants.

Yesterday, the British pound began the day with a logical rise as Iran and the US once again halted their fire. However, within a few hours, it became clear that while the bombings had ceased, negotiations had not resumed and were unlikely to do so anytime soon. Reports emerged that Iran would attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman, but what to do about the US, which is blocking Iranian ports, remains unclear. Additionally, news surfaced that Donald Trump ordered the cessation of bombings not because he considers it a step towards diplomacy, but because interceptor missile stocks have drastically diminished. Overall, what is happening in the Middle East and where it will lead is completely unclear.

From the macroeconomic data, the orders for durable goods report in the US was noted, which showed a value of +0.3% against forecasts of +2.5%. However, the market paid no attention to this report, with the dollar steadily strengthening throughout the day.

From a technical perspective, the British pound broke the descending trendline and resumed its decline calmly. Thus, the current downward trend is disrupted but remains in play. Today, trading can take place from the area of 1.3301-1.3309.

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was formed on Monday. During the American trading session, the pair surpassed the area of 1.3301-1.3309, which allowed traders to open short positions, albeit not at the most advantageous point. Today, the decline in quotes may continue.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with sales for several months now. The net position is negative despite the long-term upward trend being intact. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict continues. This geopolitics may support demand for the US dollar in the near term. However, until the price settles below the trendline, we would not expect a strong decline in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, as seen on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are directly and indirectly aimed at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trendline. The price recently interacted with this line and bounced off. According to the latest COT report (dated July 21), the "Non-commercial" group opened 13,200 BUY contracts and closed 2,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 15,500 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has returned to the downward trend, for which there are currently no solid reasons to continue. If Tehran and Washington resume negotiations, it would help risk currencies like the euro and pound. In the long term, both currencies still have a bullish outlook, as they have been in sideways channels for the past year. This does not negate the upward trend that began back in 2022.

For July 28, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3448) and Kijun-sen (1.3374) lines may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set a Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Tuesday, the event calendar is empty in the UK, while in the US, only a few minor reports are expected that are unlikely to gain anyone's attention. Thus, technical factors will dominate trading today.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may stay in short positions targeting the area of 1.3179-1.3187, as the price settled below the area of 1.3301-1.3309 yesterday. Long positions can be opened if the price settles above the area of 1.3301-1.3309 with a target in the area of 1.3369-1.3377, as the descending trendline has been broken.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance levels are indicated by thick red lines, near which the movement may come to an end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are indicated by thin red lines, from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts represents the size of the net position for each category of traders.

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair exhibited movements that few anticipated. At the beginning of the day, the euro started to rise after two reversals near the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1362-1.1461 established last week. It seemed logical, and the euro received backing from geopolitical factors as the two-week US attacks on Iran ceased. Iran and Oman began working on opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the market found nothing optimistic in these developments, leading to a renewed strengthening of the US dollar by the morning. Essentially, the market was simultaneously right and wrong. On one hand, a ceasefire or new negotiations mean absolutely nothing. The conflict remains unresolved and intermittently flares up and then cools down simply because the parties are not interested in engaging in continuous hostilities.

On the other hand, the dollar is rising in 2026 purely due to geopolitical factors, which cannot support it indefinitely. The price has been in a flat range for a month, and movements should only be expected between the levels of 1.1362 and 1.1461 until that flat is broken. From a third standpoint, the euro cannot show growth even when there are reasons to do so, as the market ignores all positive factors for the euro.

Technically, the pair maintains a minimal upward bias but is essentially trapped in a flat for a month. Since the price dropped to the lower boundary of the sideways channel, it is reasonable to expect either the completion of the flat or a rebound from it, leading to new movement towards the upper boundary at 1.1461. For now, we lean towards the latter scenario.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, one sell signal was generated. It should be noted that the lines of the Ichimoku indicator in the flat are weak, but there are no other signals at the moment. During the European trading session, the price crossed the Kijun-sen line, leading to a drop to the level of 1.1362.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated July 21. The weekly timeframe illustration shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has become bearish and has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the euro in favor of the US dollar over the last few months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but for some time the dollar has served as a "reserve currency."

We still do not see any fundamental factors for strengthening the euro, while there are plenty of factors for the decline of the US dollar. The war in the Middle East has temporarily made the dollar super attractive, but once that factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to the status quo. In the long term, the euro may fall as low as 1.08$ (the trend line), but the upward trend will remain relevant. Over recent months of dollar growth, the pair has not approached that line significantly.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates a balance between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 9,800, while the number of shorts increased by 18,900. Consequently, the net position decreased by 28,700 contracts in one week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, a corrective upward trend continues to form, which is essentially a flat. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving. The market continues to ignore many factors that favor the euro, preventing it from showing any growth. The European Central Bank meeting and the central bank's hawkish stance have been overlooked for the second consecutive time.

For July 28, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362-1.1368, 1.1461, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1430) and Kijun-sen (1.1400) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Tuesday, there are no significant events or reports planned in the EU or the US. As a result, volatility is unlikely to be high today, and the euro is unlikely to leave the sideways channel in which it has been for a month.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions with a target of 1.1274 if the price fixes below the area of 1.1362-1.1368. A new rebound from the area of 1.1362-1.1368 would allow for opening long positions with targets at 1.1400 and 1.1430.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance levels are indicated by thick red lines, near which the movement may come to an end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are indicated by thin red lines, from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts represents the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced both ups and downs on Monday. Initially, the market cheerfully sold off the dollar, anticipating another resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. Then it removed the rose-colored glasses and realized that the cessation of hostilities in the Middle East was not due to a fervent desire by Tehran and Washington to make a deal. The military actions themselves consume a lot of resources, and the US Congress, for example, is not eager to approve additional spending by Donald Trump on this pointless war. Simply put, it all comes down to money and oil. US revenues from energy sales have increased since the start of the war in the Middle East, but while additional money in the budget is good, it's government money, not Trump's personal finances. This week, economists calculated that in just one and a half years of presidency, Trump has earned more than in the previous 60 years of business. Thus, power in the US allows Trump to increase his capital by selling tokens, dinners with him, overpriced tickets to his golf club, and so on. Business is business—nothing personal.

Returning to the conflict in the Middle East: since revenues from oil and gas sales are American revenues, and Trump does not earn anything from this war, but can potentially lose elections in Congress, it is the US president who is interested in ending the war. But on terms favorable to the White House, not Tehran. Tehran understands perfectly well the position Trump is in and is not ready to make any concessions. Simply put, Iran knows that the initiative in negotiations is on its side. It is setting the parameters for the future agreement, or it is ready to abandon it completely.

Why should Iran accept Trump's ultimatums now, when the Republicans might lose at least the House of Representatives in a few months, and then the Democrats will start blocking any decisions from the US president? After all, the Democrats hate Trump about as much as Iran does. In other words, Iran can afford to wait until the congressional elections; it has no hurry. It is Trump who needs to hurry, and based on this, the US president may make numerous decisions that will raise hair on the back of your neck. The markets understand that there are no limits for the White House leader, so the longer Iran resists an agreement and negotiations, the tougher Trump's new steps may be. Therefore, the dollar is not in a hurry to fall.

Nonetheless, the technical picture for GBP/USD looks like the beginning of a new growth phase for the British currency. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the recent drop is simply a correction. Once the correction is over, a new wave of growth will begin. Consequently, technically, we can expect the British pound to rise in the coming weeks above the 1.3600 level. For this, even strong fundamental reasons are not needed, as the weekly timeframe retains a year-long flat. Inside the flat, movements are random.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 68 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Thus, on Tuesday, July 28, we expect movement within a range limited by 1.3233 and 1.3368. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has formed a bearish divergence and has entered the overbought area—the downward correction has begun.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3245

S3 – 1.3184

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3367

R2 – 1.3428

R3 – 1.3489

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect growth from the American currency in the long term. The year 2026 is shaping up to be super positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every fairy tale comes to an end. However, the weekly timeframe shows a flat between the levels of 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, which allows us to expect a continuation of growth for the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be pursued with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3233.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator — its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair rose and then fell on Monday, driven by geopolitical developments. The fact is that over the weekend, Donald Trump again decided to pardon Iran and not devastate the country, leading to a renewed halt in military actions in the Middle East. Naturally, the market could not help but react to yet another ceasefire and the window of opportunity for diplomacy, with tabloid headlines filled with phrases like "Iran and the US Resume Talks" or "Light at the End of the Tunnel." In our view, the light at the end of the tunnel is just the entrance to the next tunnel. Tehran and Washington have sat down at the negotiation table many times and have failed to reach agreements on any of the most fundamental issues. Therefore, new negotiations will yield nothing new. Moreover, the US and Iran have shown only one readiness over the past few months: to constantly violate the terms of any ceasefire. Any new deal can be violated just as easily within a couple of days, as all previous ones have been. So what is the point of new negotiations and a new agreement?

Perhaps the market understands this well and has finally removed its rose-colored glasses. Now, a significant portion of traders and investors is preparing for a prolonged confrontation in the Middle East, and when and how it will end remains a mystery shrouded in darkness. We want to remind you that the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia has been ongoing for five years, despite many experts predicting its end within a couple of weeks or, at worst, months at the conflict's inception. This phenomenon is called subconscious optimism, where you expect the best at a hypothalamic level rather than the worst. As practice shows, there is no place for optimism in our time.

We fully accept that the conflict in the Middle East may outlast Donald Trump (in the sense of being in charge of the US). Of course, the dollar will not strengthen during this entire time, but currently, the market is keeping its finger on the pulse of the conflict and is not ready to abandon the safe and beloved dollar. Essentially, the movement of the EUR/USD pair has not changed for a month. Volatility is low; the euro cannot show growth, the market ignores all positive factors for the euro, and the price remains within a sideways channel. The events of Monday did not change anything at all.

This week, the Federal Reserve meeting will take place, but it is unlikely to have any impact. Most analysts and experts will again attempt to discern any hints from Kevin Warsh regarding possible tightening of monetary policy by the end of the year. With such strong desire, they will find them. Therefore, it does not matter what exactly Warsh says; the market can interpret any of his words in favor of the dollar. Thus, in the short term, the positions of the US dollar remain more attractive. Long-term, the dollar has no chances. Unless, of course, the conflict in the Middle East, along with the conflict in Ukraine, does not begin to gradually flow into World War III.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair for the past five trading days, as of July 28, is 44 pips, characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1330 and 1.1418 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating the maintenance of a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed two bullish divergences, warning of a possible end to the downtrend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1353

S2 – 1.1292

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1414

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1536

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains a bearish trend, which is presumed to be a correction within the global upward trend, clearly visible on the daily or weekly timeframe. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, first, geopolitics and then the Fed's hawkish stance provided strong support for the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1353 and 1.1330. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1536. The market has been in a flat state for the fourth consecutive week.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator — its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

In America, information from The New York Times has started to spread that Washington is desperately seeking ways to exit the war with Iran. In my opinion, there's nothing strange about this, as Trump urgently needs to conclude the war to have a chance of winning at least one chamber of Congress in the upcoming elections. As I said, it is the US president who must strive to find a way out of the current situation, and time is working for Iran, not against it.

The tabloid provided three possible scenarios for concluding the war. The first is a new military escalation, increasing military pressure on Iran. Frankly, I don't quite understand how a new escalation can be considered "ending the war," especially since all previous attacks on Iran have not brought Trump any closer to an agreement by even a centimeter. The second option is to increase the sanctions pressure on Iran. I also see no sense in this, as Iran has lived under sanctions for 50 years. The third scenario (which I believe is the most realistic) is the announcement of complete victory and the withdrawal of American troops from the region.

Let's examine this scenario and understand what it would actually mean. As I said, Trump cannot exit the conflict defeated, although that is precisely how it will essentially be in almost any case. Trump needs a victory that could be sold to Americans before the elections or at least not to lose face. If the war is concluded, the anger of American voters will begin to wane in proportion to gas prices. Consequently, even a simple conclusion of the war would significantly increase the likelihood of Republicans winning at least one chamber of Congress.

However, this would effectively mean a complete defeat for Trump personally. Not for the American troops, but for Trump himself. American troops followed orders, and it's not their fault that they are given impossible tasks, and their actions do not yield the results the White House expects. Many military experts express the same thought: in five months of war, Washington has not achieved any of the operation's objectives. The third scenario would mean that America leaves Iran with its nuclear arsenal, the ability to create missiles with nuclear warheads, and agrees to Tehran's full control over the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, the outcome of Trump's military campaign would even be negative, because before the war, Hormuz was open and free.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend section, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward trend section. In my opinion, now is a good time to try to form long positions, although the instrument may still drop to the 13th figure within wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often presents surprises, so I would start adjusting for long positions right now.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has taken on a rather complex form. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, and for EUR/USD, five waves may be constructed. Accordingly, the pound may build one more wave down, just like the euro, but this wave could be the second within the new upward trend section. Thus, the divergence in wave patterns between the euro and the pound will exist, but it will be insignificant and minor. Based on this, the downward correction may continue for some time, after which I expect the formation of wave 3 of the new upward trend section with targets located around the 37-38 figures.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out; they often bring changes.
2. If there's no confidence in what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. There is never and can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

However, this does not mean that the July IFO indices released on Monday have lost their significance for the market. On the contrary, they complete a logical sequence of key European leading indicators, alongside the ZEW and PMI indices published last week. All three reports demonstrate, for the most part, a similar dynamic, allowing one to speak not of random improvements in individual indicators, but of the formation of a positive trend in the Eurozone economy. This, in turn, is fundamentally important for the medium-term prospects of EUR/USD, as it affects expectations regarding the European Central Bank's future policy.

Almost all components of the report came in the "green zone," exceeding forecasts. Such a result indicates that the German economy is gradually emerging from a prolonged period of stagnation. Moreover, the report is important not only in itself—as mentioned above, it harmoniously and consistently completes a chain of leading indicators, forming a coherent picture of the state of the largest economy in the Eurozone.

The "headline" IFO business climate index rose this month to 86.6 points (up from 85.7 in June), while most analysts expected to see a more modest increase to 85.9. This is the highest value of the indicator since February of this year. Furthermore, one can already confidently speak of the formation of an upward trend: the index has been rising consistently (and quite actively) for the third consecutive month.

It is also worth noting that German companies became significantly more optimistic about the prospects for the next six months in July: the IFO business expectations index reached a five-month high of 86.7. This is an important point, as this indicator reflects future investment plans of companies, expectations regarding demand, and overall economic activity. The improvement in expectations indicates that businesses are gradually starting to believe in the recovery of the economy, despite ongoing external risks (and even in defiance of these risks).

Against the backdrop of optimistic forecasts and expectations, the assessment of the current state of business decreased—from 87.0 to 86.5. At first glance, this looks like a negative signal; however, such a combination is quite typical for an economy that is in the early stages of recovery. Companies acknowledge that the current situation remains challenging (current operational performance is still stagnant), but at the same time expect a noticeable improvement in business conditions in the coming months. This is precisely why the key index continues to show positive dynamics.

If we look at the sectoral structure of the report, the most encouraging signals came from the industrial sector. Enterprises have become noticeably less pessimistic about business prospects, and export expectations have improved amid a gradual stabilization of external demand. Meanwhile, the services sector and retail still appear less confident: consumer demand is gradually recovering, although the stabilization of interest rates is already supporting companies' expectations. The construction sector remains the weakest link, experiencing pressure from high structural costs. Nevertheless, even here the pace of worsening sentiment has significantly slowed.

It is also important to note another point. The July IFO report was compiled during another round of escalation in the Middle East, which means it took into account the effects of the recent spike in energy prices. In this context, the increase in business sentiment looks particularly indicative: German businesses demonstrated resilience despite ongoing geopolitical risks. Commenting on the release, the head of the Institute pointed out separately that despite the uncertainty surrounding the prospects of the Middle Eastern conflict, German companies "have become significantly less pessimistic."

I would like to remind you that the indices published last week also confirmed the improvement in sentiment within the German economy: in particular, the ZEW index rose to 26.3 points (from the previous value of 10.5), and the assessment of the current situation improved from -81.0 to -77.6 points. The preliminary composite PMI for Germany entered the expansion zone, rising from 49.5 to 51.2 points. At the same time, the industrial PMI reached 52.2 points—its highest level in more than four years.

Unlike the ZEW, which reflects the expectations of financial analysts and investors, the PMI shows the actual dynamics of business activity in companies. The IFO, in turn, provides a more comprehensive assessment of the business climate, combining both perceptions of the current situation and enterprises' expectations. As a result, the ZEW, PMI, and IFO have formed a unified picture of the gradual recovery of the German economy.

Thus, the report has favored the euro, strengthening its fundamental positions. However, the market is still living in the realm of geopolitics: while the focus remains on the de-escalation process in the Middle East, the negotiation track (and not macro statistics) will determine the short- and medium-term dynamics of EUR/USD.

Therefore, it is advisable to consider long positions in the pair only after a confident price fixation above the resistance level of 1.1410 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), after which the pair is expected to return to the range of 1.1410 – 1.1470, within which it has traded for the past three weeks.

On Monday, the USD/CHF pair is weakening after a five-day rise. This dynamic is due to the fall of the US dollar, prompted by the easing of geopolitical tensions following a pause in military action between the US and Iran, providing a respite after 13 days of escalating conflict.

The US has halted strikes amid growing concerns over the depletion of interceptor stocks and a reduced list of remaining targets in Iran. Additionally, General Dan Kayne reported that on Friday the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned President Trump that continuing the military campaign could severely undermine critical ammunition supplies.

Nonetheless, market participants are exercising caution due to potential supply disruptions, considering that Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi facilities along the Red Sea.

Traders expect that at Wednesday's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, the interest rates will remain unchanged before resuming hikes in September. However, some market participants still anticipate an unexpected decision at the upcoming meeting.

Also, for better trading opportunities, it is important to closely monitor the release of key economic indicators, including preliminary GDP data for the second quarter, PCE inflation figures, and earnings reports from major US companies, to gain a more comprehensive view of the economy's state.

Still, the USD/CHF pair has the potential for recovery, as the decline in Swiss government bond yields may exert pressure on the Swiss franc. With the yield on 10-year bonds decreasing to around 0.46%, the fall in domestic fixed-income asset yields could encourage global investors to reallocate capital into more lucrative foreign bonds.

From a technical standpoint, the pair has found support at the 9-day EMA, with the upward trend intact and oscillators positive, confirming the bulls' advantage. Therefore, this correction may be seen as a buying opportunity. However, if prices drop below the 14-day EMA and the 20-day SMA, the positive outlook for the bulls will change.

The US dollar had its best week in a month, but the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict caused the greenback to retreat from local highs. Nevertheless, according to CFTC data, speculative traders have pushed their bullish bets on the US currency to $43.3 billion – the highest level since 2015.

Dynamics of Speculative Positions on the US Dollar

At the same time, the FOMC meeting on July 28 and 29 looks like a minefield. Unlike his predecessors, Warsh has refrained from signaling the fate of the rate. As a result, the market is divided: the probability of a hike is estimated at 35-40%, while it was much lower recently. The acceleration of oil prices amid escalation in the Middle East and the new 10.0-12.5% tariffs from the White House on imports from most major trading partners fuel inflation risks and play into the hands of the hawks on the Open Market Committee.

According to TD Securities, positioning on the US dollar remains long but is still far from overheated, which means there is room for increasing bets on the strengthening of the greenback if uncertainty surrounding oil, geopolitics, and the Fed's trajectory persists. The company expects continued bullish momentum for the greenback in the third quarter.

Market Expectations for Fed Rates

Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, maintains a neutral position on the USD index, noting the risks of a decline following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI reports in June. According to the bank, by September, disinflationary pressure in the US will become more evident, leaving less reason for Fed monetary tightening.

The fate of EUR/USD largely depends on oil. ING believes the strength of the dollar will persist until Washington and Tehran reach a new ceasefire. De-escalation would collapse black gold prices and reduce expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Fed. The opposite scenario—continued escalation and a rally in oil—would force the central bank to act. Commerzbank does not even rule out a fall of the euro below $1.13 if the geopolitical premium in oil does not disappear.

However, there is also a downside. Expectations of an European Central Bank rate hike partly offset the negative impact of the oil spike on the regional currency. This was the case in June when the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran provided no support for the euro specifically due to the sharp decline in Brent.

Will the market get a response at the Fed meeting, or will Warsh choose to remain silent again? I doubt that silence will satisfy investors two times in a row.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD saw a retracement of the inside bar, but the long upper shadow of the bar breakout indicates weakness among the bulls. A move beyond the fair value range of 1.1385-1.144, followed by a new local low at 1.1365, would warrant short positions.

The GBP/USD pair has shown strong growth in recent weeks, which could become the beginning of a bullish trend. However, the pound is currently undergoing a corrective pullback that began a week and a half ago and may continue for another week and a half.

Last week, the fundamental background was not against the pound; nevertheless, bears attacked throughout the entire week without interruption. What should be expected from GBP/USD this week? Everything will come down to two events. On Wednesday evening, the results of the FOMC meeting will be announced, while on Thursday afternoon, the outcome of the Bank of England meeting will be released. Both events could trigger increased volatility, and their outcomes cannot be predicted in advance.

More precisely, both central banks are most likely to leave monetary policy parameters unchanged, but traders understand perfectly well that any comment or hint from Bailey or Waller, as well as any new wording in the final statements, could trigger a strong market move.

For now, the pound is being supported from another decline by imbalance 23. It is no longer acting as an imbalance for traders but rather as a support zone. It was previously tested twice, so I would not expect a third reaction to this pattern.

Monday once again created pressure on sterling, although the day initially started quite positively for the currency. Demand for the US dollar declined as Iran and the US attempted to return to the path of diplomacy. However, just a few hours later, bears resumed their attacks.

This week, oil rose to $100, and the consequences of renewed escalation in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices even higher, potentially towards $120. Therefore, if events develop according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices will continue rising and retest the March–May highs.

In this case, hopes for slowing inflation in the US and the UK would disappear. If the situation develops according to the optimistic scenario, oil prices could return to the $60–70 per barrel range. In that case, further tightening by the Fed may not be required, while the Bank of England is currently not facing the same issue of high inflation. Therefore, the dollar cannot yet rely on the regulator's hawkish stance as a strong supporting factor.

The chart analysis shows a bullish advance that could resume. The question is: from what level?

The price first conducted a liquidity sweep from the low of April 6, and then from the low of March 31, after which a new bullish advance began. Given that the dollar still lacks strong reasons for a long-term trend and has already demonstrated impressive growth in 2026, I believe bears will not be able to continue attacking further.

However, at the moment, only imbalance 23 is capable of limiting the pound's decline. Will it hold back bears for the third time? Not necessarily.

The economic background on Monday was not the reason behind the movements we observed. Among the notable events, I can only highlight the US Durable Goods Orders report, but from the beginning of the week traders shifted their attention towards geopolitics. Last week, they also paid only limited attention to economic statistics.

Emotions continue to dominate the market rather than a cold and calculated assessment. Traders do not understand how events in the Middle East will develop, so they are not rushing to draw conclusions.

The overall fundamental background remains such that, in the long term, I cannot expect anything other than a decline in the US dollar. The war between Iran and the US has not changed this outlook. A possible Fed rate hike in 2026 has not changed it either.

Geopolitics forced the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The Fed intends to raise interest rates in 2026, which is positive for the dollar. However, it should not be forgotten that monetary policy tightening will lead to slower economic growth and a weaker labour market, while Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump as FOMC Chair with the purpose of achieving monetary policy easing — something Jerome Powell was unable to deliver.

Therefore, in my view, any dollar growth is temporary and driven by short-term factors.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK:

• US — ADP Employment Change (12:30 UTC).
• US — Consumer Confidence Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for 27 July contains two releases that I do not consider important. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps from the two latest swing lows, bulls regained the initiative. However, the British pound may still resume its decline towards the level that would invalidate the bullish trend — 1.3007.

To develop this move, new bearish signals will be required, and they are currently absent.

For bulls, imbalance 23 currently acts as the key support zone, and it may trigger a reaction for the third time.

For bears, the important area is 1.3392–1.3415, where bearish imbalance 24 is located.

Therefore, the current approach is to monitor the market, observe developments, and wait for the formation of clear signals.

The EUR/USD pair remains within the local bearish impulse that began on April 17, while over the past four weeks bulls have only managed to push bears back slightly. The latest liquidity sweep warned of a high probability of a renewed decline, which is what we have been observing for more than a week already. It is difficult to determine how strong and prolonged the new decline will be, but bears have one key reference point — the latest swing low at 1.1325. A liquidity sweep from this swing could give bulls a second chance.

Regarding the fundamental background, I still do not see a clear reason why bears remain so strong. Geopolitics continues to disappoint, but this factor is unlikely to be the key driver for traders, as they barely reacted to the temporary ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB decided last week to leave monetary policy parameters unchanged, but is that really a reason to sell the euro? I would like to remind you that the FOMC still cannot decide to raise interest rates, and it remains unclear when it will do so. The market completely ignored all economic data last week. Therefore, in my view, bulls simply have no desire to launch an attack, regardless of what happens.

I would also like to remind you that the latest US labour market data showed rather weak figures, while the inflation report indicated a slowdown. Therefore, the weakening of the US labour market and inflation growth are casting doubt on the possibility of an FOMC rate hike in the foreseeable future. Under the current circumstances, bears cannot justify their position through Fed policy.

Geopolitics remains a secondary factor. Tehran and Washington withdrew from the agreement of 17 June, but this fact did not surprise traders at all. Donald Trump cancelled permission for Iranian oil exports, restored the blockade on Iranian shipping, while Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked all vessels attempting to cross it "not according to the rules". We did not see the "promised" dollar decline amid easing geopolitical tensions a month ago, nor did we see the euro rise after the ECB's monetary policy tightening a month and a half ago. Bears remain strong despite the fundamental and geopolitical background. At present, geopolitics is once again causing disappointment, giving bears formal grounds for new attacks. However, in my opinion, this is no longer sufficient for a sustainable bearish advance.

The current chart structure indicates that the bearish impulse that began on April 17 remains intact. The bearish imbalance from the 17th has not been filled, while the imbalance from the 18th was invalidated due to weak US labour market data. No bullish patterns have formed, and they are unlikely to appear in the coming days, as the market has been moving sideways for a month. Therefore, bulls may continue a corrective move higher towards the imbalance from the 17th, but there is currently no clear basis for trading this movement.

A liquidity sweep was made from the low of August 1 last year (red line on the chart), and shortly afterwards a liquidity sweep was made from the high of July 2. Therefore, bears currently have technical reasons to launch new attacks. However, there are no bearish patterns either.

The economic background did not play a decisive role for traders on Monday. Germany's business climate index is a secondary indicator, while in the morning the market was focused on developments related to the temporary suspension of the conflict in the Middle East. Iran and the US have become exhausted from exchanging strikes, so a pause has been taken in an attempt to return to negotiations. The Durable Goods Orders report also failed to attract significant trader attention. The dollar's position did not deteriorate following the Middle East developments.

There are still numerous reasons for bulls to attack in 2026, and even the conflict in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, has not changed. At present, I do not see any significant factors supporting the US currency, despite the hawkish stance of the FOMC. Nevertheless, bears continue to lead the attacks, while there are still no bullish signals.

Economic Calendar for the US and the European Union:

• US — ADP Employment Change (12:30 UTC).
• US — Consumer Confidence Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for 27 July contains two releases that are not of particular interest. At the moment, bullish traders are ignoring all news, while bearish traders continue their attacks without fundamental support. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be extremely weak or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my opinion, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental background changed sharply in favour of bears five months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered cancelled or completed. Therefore, bulls may well begin a new advance after a liquidity sweep from clearly defined lows.

However, opening buy positions at the moment is not advisable, is unsafe, and there is simply no clear technical basis for doing so. Any assumptions without technical confirmation are merely attempts to predict the market without sufficient justification. There are currently no bullish patterns.

Bearish traders have only one technical advantage at their disposal — the bearish imbalance from the 17th, which still remains unfilled.

The test of the 163.46 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the US dollar.

During the second half of the day, the market will focus on US Durable Goods Orders, which could strengthen the US dollar and trigger another upward move in the pair. The indicator covers goods with a long service life and reflects companies' willingness to invest in equipment and machinery, making it an important measure of investment activity and business confidence. Strong figures would increase expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and push US Treasury yields higher, which would support the dollar.

The Japanese yen will react to this report through changes in the yield differential. A strong increase in orders could drive USD/JPY higher by widening the interest-rate gap with Japan, while a weak result would push the pair lower.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point is reached near 163.66 (green line on the chart), with a target of a rise towards 163.92 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 163.29, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the probability remains relatively uncertain.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 163.50 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal higher. A move towards the opposite levels of 163.66 and 163.92 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 163.50 level is broken (red line on the chart), which would trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 163.23, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair is likely to return if central bank intervention occurs.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 163.66 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal lower. A decline towards the opposite levels of 163.50 and 163.23 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further upward movement above this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further downward movement below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimise losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire account balance, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with oversized positions.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3345 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a pound short position. As a result, the pair declined towards the target level of 1.3317.

Despite a noticeable improvement in July retail sales according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) data, the pound declined significantly against the US dollar today. The CBI Retail Sales indicator is based on a survey of retailers and serves as an early signal of consumer demand conditions. An improvement in the indicator usually supports the British currency through expectations regarding Bank of England monetary policy. However, the actual reading remained in negative territory, indicating that sales are still declining, and therefore the data did not provide meaningful support for the pound.

As a result, the British currency became dependent on external factors, with market sentiment towards the US dollar becoming the main driver rather than domestic economic data.

During the second half of the day, the direction of the pound will be determined by US Durable Goods Orders data, as the British currency currently lacks additional domestic drivers. The indicator reflects demand for expensive goods with a long service life and is considered an early signal of investment activity. Rising orders typically indicate stronger business confidence and a healthy US economy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound if the entry point is reached near 1.3332 (green line on the chart), with a target of a rise towards 1.3356 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3356, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected if the economic data is weak.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3311 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal higher. A move towards the opposite levels of 1.3332 and 1.3356 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3311 level is broken (red line on the chart), which would trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3281, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pound will ease today if the economic data is strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3332 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal lower. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3311 and 1.3281 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further upward movement above this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further downward movement below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimise losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire trading account, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with oversized positions.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1401 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a euro short position. However, as you can see on the chart, the pair did not experience a significant decline afterwards.

The German business climate delivered a positive surprise to the market, with the Ifo Expectations Index playing the key role. The indicator rose to 86.7 from the revised previous-month reading of 84.3, exceeding the average forecast of 84.8 from surveyed economists. However, the overall picture was not entirely positive, as the Current Conditions Index declined compared with the previous reading, reflecting a more cautious assessment of the current situation among companies. The divergence between these components created a mixed picture, preventing the euro from extending its gains.

During the second half of the day, the pair will remain focused on the release of US Durable Goods Orders, which will be the key market driver for the session. These orders cover products with a long service life and serve as an indicator of investment sentiment, as businesses typically increase purchases of equipment and machinery only when they are confident about future prospects. Strong figures would confirm the resilience of the US economy and support the dollar, while a weak report could weaken its position. For the single currency, the implications are straightforward: strong order growth would strengthen the dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD, while disappointing data would give the euro room to maintain its position.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1408 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise towards 1.1432. At 1.1432, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected if the economic data is weak.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1390 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal higher. A move towards the opposite levels of 1.1408 and 1.1432 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1390 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1356, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data is strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1408 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal lower. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1390 and 1.1356 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further upward movement above this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further downward movement below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during major news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimise potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire trading account, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with oversized positions.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's annual realised volatility chart shows a picture that would have seemed impossible for this asset several years ago. From 2011 to 2014, the indicator regularly exceeded 150–180% and at times approached 200%, reflecting the early stage of the market, when prices could double or fall by half within just a few weeks. After the Mt. Gox exchange collapsed in 2014, volatility declined sharply and remained within the 50–100% range for almost a decade, with local spikes in 2018 and 2021–2022, each coinciding with sharp price movements during market cycles.

Since around 2023, the chart has shown a sustained downward trend in volatility, which has continued despite Bitcoin's price increase from around $20,000 to levels above $100,000. This represents a significant divergence from previous cycles, when price increases were almost always accompanied by rising volatility. Currently, the indicator has fallen to a historical low of around 30–40%, marked by the yellow circle at the end of the chart. In other words, Bitcoin is demonstrating, for the first time in its history, a combination of a high price and low volatility — behaviour that is much more typical of mature traditional assets than of an asset known for speculative trading.

This decline in volatility is consistent with structural changes in the market that have been observed in recent months. The market is awaiting the final major event of the year — the adoption of the CLARITY Act.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the entry point is reached near $65,300, with a target of a move higher towards $65,900. Around $65,900, I will close long positions and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $65,000 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level and the price returns towards $65,300 and $65,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the entry point is reached near $65,000, with a target of a decline towards $64,300. Around $64,300, I will close short positions and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $65,300 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level and the price returns towards $65,000 and $64,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ether today if the entry point is reached near $1,970, with a target of a move higher towards $1,990. Around $1,990, I will close long positions and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ether can be bought from the lower boundary at $1,953 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level and the price returns towards $1,970 and $1,990.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ether today if the entry point is reached near $1,953, with a target of a decline towards $1,936. Around $1,936, I will close short positions and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ether can be sold from the upper boundary at $1,970 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level and the price returns towards $1,953 and $1,936.

According to the latest data, the Ifo Expectations Index rose to 86.7 from the revised previous-month reading of 84.3, exceeding the forecasts of all survey participants. This component reflects German business sentiment regarding the outlook for the coming months, and its strong increase signals growing optimism in the eurozone's largest economy. Since Ifo surveys are considered one of the key indicators of business sentiment in the region, the strong result supported expectations of economic resilience. However, unfortunately, it did not benefit the single currency.

During the second half of the day, market attention will shift to US data on Durable Goods Orders. This indicator reflects the volume of orders for long-lasting goods, such as machinery, equipment, and transport vehicles, and is considered an important measure of investment activity and business confidence. Since companies typically make large purchases only when they have an optimistic outlook for the future, rising orders indicate economic strength and support the US dollar through expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policy. A strong reading could provide additional support for the US currency by strengthening the case against an imminent policy easing cycle. For the euro and the pound, this would create additional challenges. Conversely, a weak result would weaken the US dollar and give both European currencies a chance to hold at least their current levels.

If the economic data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Buy: A breakout above 1.1402 may lead to a rise in the euro towards 1.1422 and 1.1442.
• Sell: A breakout below 1.1385 may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1365 and 1.1345.

GBP/USD

• Buy: A breakout above 1.3339 may lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3363 and 1.3388.
• Sell: A breakout below 1.3310 may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3290 and 1.3265.

USD/JPY

• Buy: A breakout above 163.76 may lead to a rise in the US dollar towards 163.99 and 164.26.
• Sell: A breakout below 163.48 may lead to a decline in the US dollar towards 163.18 and 162.92.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Sell: I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1420 followed by a return below this level.
• Buy: I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1385 followed by a return to this level.

GBP/USD

• Sell: I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3339 followed by a return below this level.
• Buy: I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3304 followed by a return to this level.

AUD/USD

• Sell: I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 0.7014 followed by a return below this level.
• Buy: I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 0.6994 followed by a return to this level.

USD/CAD

• Sell: I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.4114 followed by a return below this level.
• Buy: I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.4084 followed by a return to this level.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to consolidate slightly below the $4,100 level, as buyers prefer to remain cautious ahead of this week's key FOMC meeting.

Ahead of this important central bank event, renewed hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the five-month conflict between the United States and Iran have triggered a notable decline in oil prices. This is helping to reduce inflation risks and lowering expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, which, in turn, is limiting the appeal of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and providing some support for the precious metal, although gold has not yet been able to develop a sustained upward momentum.Late on Friday, the United States suspended its bombing campaign against Iran after 13 consecutive nights of strikes. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz stated that, although US forces remain fully prepared, President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations "some room" to progress. In response, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Tehran would halt its attacks if the United States did the same, increasing expectations of a sustained de-escalation scenario between the two countries.

This led to a partial reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, which had previously placed significant pressure on the US dollar. In addition, the easing of military tensions caused a sharp decline in oil prices and prompted investors to reduce expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike. This environment has contributed to a moderate decline in US Treasury yields, creating another factor weighing on the dollar after it retested a one-month high last week.Nevertheless, traders remain reluctant to build aggressive bearish positions on the US dollar and prefer to wait for additional signals regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Therefore, attention remains focused on the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, market participants continue to question the sustainability of the reduction in hostilities. Sentiment has also been affected by a decline in traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on 26 July following an attack by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen on Saudi oil facilities along the Red Sea coast.

This has increased concerns about major disruptions to global oil supplies due to limited transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which, in turn, is supporting oil prices. This backdrop is helping to limit a deeper decline in the US dollar and restricting further gains in gold, causing aggressive buyers to remain cautious ahead of the key central bank event.

From a technical perspective, gold remains under pressure, as indicated by negative momentum oscillators. However, the metal has shown resilience above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which supports the bullish outlook. The next resistance level is at $4,145, after which buyers will target the psychological $4,200 level.

However, if gold fails to hold the support level, prices could decline towards the psychological $4,000 level, leaving the metal vulnerable to further losses.

The drop in crude oil prices against the backdrop of the cessation of mutual shelling between the US and Iran this weekend once again instills optimism in market participants. Against this backdrop, stock indices are rising both in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe. Futures on American stock indices are also trading in the green zone. Gold and silver are receiving support.

In the Forex market, the dollar is declining against major currencies. However, in addition to the decreasing escalation of the Middle Eastern crisis, the expectation of the outcome from the Fed's monetary policy meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday, negatively impacts it. According to the consensus forecast, the Fed is expected to maintain all monetary policy parameters unchanged with a probability of 66.3%. At the press conference, Chair K. Warsh may suggest that the central bank, given the uncertainty regarding the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, might pause its decision on rates and will rely on incoming economic data.

So, what can be expected in the markets ahead of the Fed meeting?

I believe that the US dollar will remain under pressure, while gold traded against it will, on the contrary, receive support. The absence of the prospect of interest rate hikes and the expectation of the inflation report amid a local rebound in crude oil prices will likely serve as the basis for making no changes, which will be the reason for the dollar's weakening against the ICE index to the mark of 100.00 points.

Forecast of the Day:

GOLD

The price of gold is consolidating above the level of 4085.00 in anticipation of the outcome of the Fed's monetary policy meeting, supported by the weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of falling oil prices. In this context, it may receive support and rise to 4152.80. The buying level may be the mark of 4100.85.

USD/JPY

The pair is trading below the resistance level of 163.20. The outcome of the Fed meeting may lead to its decline to 162.26. The selling level may be the mark of 162.93.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish, despite the prolonged (but weak) advance by buyers. The latest completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the most recent downward wave broke below the previous low. The geopolitical situation is deteriorating again, as Iran and the United States have resumed blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and active military operations. A conclusion that the bearish trend has ended can only be made after the price breaks above the 1.1473 peak, but bulls have demonstrated weakness for a month already.

Friday's fundamental backdrop once again favoured buyers. US business activity indices were mixed, and in any case, traders generally prefer to focus on the ISM indices rather than the S&P Global PMI data. Meanwhile, business activity indices in the eurozone services and manufacturing sectors exceeded market expectations. As a result, the euro had the opportunity to post a strong advance on Friday, but once again buyers failed to launch a meaningful attack.

Overnight, markets actively reacted to developments in the Middle East. Donald Trump appears to have either lost patience or become frustrated, but he once again "gave Iran a chance" to resolve the conflict peacefully. At present, Iran has not issued any statements indicating a willingness to resume dialogue with the United States, although Trump believes that Tehran is the party interested in negotiations. Therefore, missile strikes have temporarily stopped, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and whether negotiations will resume remains uncertain.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving sideways. A consolidation below 1.1411 would suggest further downside potential; however, the price has changed direction too frequently recently, while traders have shown limited activity. No developing divergences are currently visible on any technical indicators. The downward trend channel remains valid.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 9,842 Long positions and opened 18,891 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the strong bullish advantage disappeared due to the war involving Iran, while during the following seventeen weeks the market became more balanced amid a temporary ceasefire and hopes that the conflict would end.

The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 220,000, while Short positions amount to 261,000. Bears have once again taken the lead.

Overall, in the longer term, large market participants continue to show significant interest in the euro. Naturally, global events of various kinds — which have been abundant in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, markets are currently closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, where the conflict appears to end and then resume repeatedly. Initially, markets ignored the ceasefire, and later they also largely ignored the resumption of hostilities. Therefore, geopolitical factors no longer determine the fate of the US dollar on their own.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union

Germany

• Business Climate Index — 08:00 UTC

United States

• Durable Goods Orders — 12:30 UTC

The economic calendar for 26 July contains two releases that are unlikely to attract significant attention. At present, bullish traders are ignoring most economic news, while bearish traders continue to sell without fundamental support. The impact of economic data on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be very limited or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Buy: Long positions were possible after a close above 1.1395, with targets at 1.1438 and 1.1472. These trades can remain open today.

Sell: Short positions may be considered after a consolidation below 1.1395 on the hourly chart or following a rejection from 1.1438, with a target of 1.1325.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

The rise was prompted by a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, which alleviated oil supply risks and inflation concerns. The US suspended nearly two weeks of strikes against Iran without any explanations or official statements. At the same time, Iran indicated that it would refrain from retaliatory attacks and engaged in negotiations with Oman regarding key shipping issues through the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, oil collapsed at the start of the week: Brent fell more than 7 percent below $90 per barrel in the first few minutes before cutting losses.

Easing inflation risks through the oil channel has become a key factor for gold. In recent weeks, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East after a temporary ceasefire has heightened inflationary pressure and increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, creating headwinds for the non-yielding metal. Fed observers expect this week's rate decision to be contentious, as the recent rise in energy prices contradicts a softer-than-expected June consumer price report.

It is clear that the current pause in hostilities is positive for gold, but the market requires a significant settlement between the US and Iran before betting on gold growth beyond the $4000-$4200 range. Yields and inflation expectations will remain elevated while the conflict persists, and this is currently the main factor restraining gold.

Since the end of June, the metal has predominantly fluctuated around the $4000 per ounce mark, with waves of buying on dips keeping it above the psychological threshold that some traders consider key support.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4124. This would allow for a target of $4186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target would be in the $4249 area. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control of $4062. If successful, breaking through this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4008, with the prospect of reaching $3954.

Today's drop was driven by a pause in strikes between the US and Iran, which eased tensions in the five-month conflict. After 13 days of continuous attacks on Iran, the US suspended strikes late Friday night, raising questions about President Trump's next move. The Iranian army, for its part, stated that Tehran had also paused its retaliatory actions. Notably, just before the pause, Trump allowed for the possibility of intensifying actions, reiterating his long-standing line of escalation threats, and in an interview with Axios last week, mentioned considering a "massive attack."

There are both positive and negative scenarios for the future trajectory of prices. The pause in strikes and reports of progress in negotiations have raised expectations that a path to de-escalation is again forming, which could lead to a restoration of flows. However, there is also the downside. All key issues, including Iran's control over the strait and its missile and nuclear programs, remain unresolved, and there is a high risk that any ceasefire will only be temporary.

The Houthis in Yemen stated that they struck facilities related to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port cities of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. However, neither Riyadh nor the company confirmed this information.

Data on actual shipping confirms that shipowners remain extremely cautious, despite the announced pause. Transit through key narrow straits is still significantly below normal. Only eight cargo vessels, mainly small tankers for petroleum products, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.

Iranian state television reported that six vessels attempting to use the southern route through the strait along the Omani coast were turned away.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $86.67. This would allow for a target of $92.54, above which it would be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target would be the $100.00 area. If oil falls, bears will attempt to take control of $81.38. If successful, breaking through this range would deal a severe blow to the bulls' positions and drive oil down to a low of $78.70, with the prospect of reaching $76.30.

Meanwhile, the market remains active with a lively correction, as nine of the major institutional players in the Bitcoin ecosystem announced the formation of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, an initiative aimed at supporting the long-term security and sustainability of the Bitcoin network. The combined commitment from participants amounts to $15 million over the next three years, with founders including Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, BlackRock, Block, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, Galaxy, and Strategy, representing almost the entire spectrum of the institutional market from custodians and exchanges to asset managers and payment providers.

The main practical task of the consortium is to fund existing developers and researchers working on securing the network, including long-term preparations for Bitcoin's potential challenges posed by the era of quantum computing. Each participant is directing their funding to selected developers, researchers, and organizations independently. At the same time, the consortium coordinates the overall initiative and serves as a source of reliable information about progress for investors, the public, and the media.

The consortium intentionally distances itself from interference in the protocol. The organization does not develop or direct Bitcoin's development, does not take a position on specific protocol changes, and does not speak on behalf of Bitcoin or its developers, as the development of the network remains the work of a global decentralized community of contributors.

It should also be noted that the quantum threat, for which the consortium was largely created, remains theoretical at this stage, not imminent. Large-scale quantum computers capable of compromising Bitcoin's cryptography do not currently exist, and authoritative estimates suggest that the emergence of such capabilities is still years away.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario:

• Buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $65,600 with a target for growth to $66,300. At around $66,300, I will exit from buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
• Buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $65,300 if there is no market reaction to breaking below this level, targeting $65,600 and $66,300.

Sell Scenario:

• Sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $65,300 with a target for decline to $64,700. At around $64,700, I will exit from sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
• Sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $65,600 if there is no market reaction to breaking below this level, targeting $65,300 and $64,700.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario:

• Buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $1,973 with a target for growth to $2,005. At around $2,005, I will exit from buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
• Buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $1,959 if there is no market reaction to breaking below this level, targeting $1,973 and $2,005.

Sell Scenario:

• Sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $1,959 with a target for decline to $1,936. At around $1,936, I will exit from sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
• Sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $1,973 if there is no market reaction to breaking below this level, targeting $1,959 and $1,936.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The wave structure has turned bearish. The most recent completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. As a result, sellers have regained control of the market. In my view, the bearish impulse that began in 2026 has now run its course, and only geopolitical developments could prevent buyers from resuming their advance. At present, geopolitical factors are once again weighing on risk-sensitive assets.

Friday's news background supported the pound and encouraged bullish trading activity. Buyers did step in, although only modestly. However, last week's developments have already been overtaken by events, as the new week began with a ceasefire in the Middle East. How long this ceasefire will hold remains uncertain. In reality, there is no formal ceasefire at present. Donald Trump has merely suspended US strikes on Iran and is now likely waiting for a response from Tehran. Iran has responded by halting its attacks on US military bases. However, Trump is seeking more than that. He expects negotiations to resume, as though the past thirteen days of hostilities had fundamentally changed Tehran's position. For this reason, I do not believe that the two sides have genuinely returned to diplomacy, and any US dollar weakness driven by this factor may prove short-lived.

This week, market participants will also focus on the upcoming policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Although both central banks are widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged, unexpected developments remain possible. At this stage, even the policymakers themselves may not know what those surprises could be. One thing is clear: the situation remains highly uncertain and difficult to predict.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3538, reversed in favour of the US dollar, and continues to decline towards the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3277. A close above 1.3348 would allow traders to anticipate a moderate recovery. No developing divergences are currently visible on any of the technical indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among Non-commercial traders became less bearish during the latest reporting week, although it remains negative overall. The number of Long positions increased by 13,197, while Short positions declined by 2,495. The positioning gap now stands at approximately 64,000 Long positions versus 119,000 Short positions. The bearish advantage is narrowing, although sellers still retain overall control. Previously, the dominance of bearish positioning was unquestionable, but changes in the fundamental backdrop have made the outlook less clear.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. In the near term, however, market direction will depend less on economic data, Trump's trade policy, or central bank decisions than on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, markets had shifted towards expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before making meaningful progress. There is also no guarantee that talks will resume in the near future.

Economic Calendar

United States

• Durable Goods Orders (Month-on-Month) – 12:30 UTC

The economic calendar for July 26 contains only one notable release. It may provide support for the US dollar, although it may also have little impact on overall market sentiment. Consequently, the influence of macroeconomic data is expected to remain limited on Monday and is likely to be felt only during the second half of the trading day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Sell: Short positions were justified following a rejection from 1.3397 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3348 and 1.3298. Both targets have been reached. New short positions may be considered after a confirmed close below 1.3348, with downward targets at 1.3298 and 1.3238.

Buy: Long positions were justified following a rebound from 1.3298, targeting 1.3348 and 1.3397. The first target has been achieved, and existing long positions may be held.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.