Today, however, futures on global equity indices reversed sharply lower. Investors who had largely ignored oil above $100/bbl and elevated inflation prints appear to be asking an uncomfortable question: has the rally gone too far?

The MSCI Asia Pacific index tumbled by almost 2%. South Korea's KOSPI, a key proxy for AI-related investment, plunged by roughly 5%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.8%, and European markets opened more than 1% lower. The US dollar rose for a fifth consecutive day, reaffirming its safe-haven status amid Middle East turbulence.

Oil remains the main trigger. Brent broke $107/bbl after US President Donald Trump said the US does not intend to open the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, however, he softened his language, saying that the US would like the strait to be open. Mixed signals have only amplified market nervousness.

The bond market reacted forcefully. Two-year US Treasury yields climbed by four basis points to 4.06%, hitting a 14-month high. Ten-year yields also rose by four basis points to 4.53%. In Japan, 20-year JGB yields moved up to 3.61%, a level not seen since 1996. Rising global yields are adding pressure to equities by making financing more expensive and improving the relative appeal of bonds.

Markets have fully priced out Fed rate cuts for this year and are beginning to factor in a real chance of hikes by year-end. With oil above $100, the question of how long equities can ignore inflationary risk is becoming more pressing.

The Trump–Xi summit added uncertainty rather than clarity. Xi spoke of "new relations" and "many outcomes," but concrete details remain scarce. Tension over Taiwan persists, and the Iran issue appears not to have been substantively addressed — a disappointment for investors hoping for progress on Middle East de-escalation.

As for commodities, gold fell by 1.3% to below $4,600/oz. Sterling weakened for a fifth straight day amid a fresh round of political turmoil around Prime Minister Starmer.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,474. Doing so would validate further upside momentum and open the path to $7,494. Maintaining control above $7,518 would strengthen buyers' position. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,451 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,427 and open the way to $7,404.

Most likely, by the end of the week, gold will lose more than 2%. April inflation data from the US came in worse than expected: the producer price index accelerated to its highest level since 2022, and consumer prices increased the most since 2023. The markets reacted predictably: the dollar strengthened, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds surged, putting pressure on gold from two sides—as a non-yielding asset and a dollar-denominated one.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, negotiations for the Iranian settlement have stalled, and WTI crude oil is trading around $102 per barrel. The energy crisis is dragging on, and inflation remains high, limiting the Federal Reserve's room for maneuver.

It seems that inflation expectations, rising yields, and a strengthening dollar will continue to exert short-term pressure on gold. Since the beginning of the war, gold has depreciated by more than 12% and has been trading within a relatively narrow sideways range. Investors find themselves caught between two fires: inflation risks indicate a future rise in interest rates, which puts pressure on the metal, while concerns about a slowing economy theoretically suggest easing policies that could support gold.

However, it is too early to completely write off gold. Hedge funds may start to increase long positions in the coming days—especially in light of the sharp drop in prices. China is currently doing just that, actively buying gold on the dips.

Silver, in this context, looks considerably better: during May, the metal has appreciated by about 11% on a wave of renewed speculative interest in industrial metals. The gold-to-silver ratio has decreased, signaling the relative cheapness of silver.

I want to remind you that an additional negative factor for the market this week has been India, which has further tightened the rules for gold imports as part of efforts to protect the rupee. This occurred just days after the increase in import duties and impacted demand in the world's second-largest precious metals market.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,607. This will allow them to aim for $4,656, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be $4,708. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control at $4,546. If they succeed, breaking through this range will deliver a severe blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,481 with the potential to reach $4,432.

Meanwhile, Robert Kiyosaki, a well-known author and philanthropist, has again stated that now is the time to invest in real money: gold, silver, BTC, and ETH. There are several reasons for this.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict in Iran, are significantly impacting global energy markets. The volatility of oil prices, driven by supply disruptions and concerns over further escalation, inevitably leads to increased costs for businesses worldwide. Companies facing rising fuel and raw material costs are forced to pass these costs on to consumers by raising prices for their goods and services. This process is one of the main driving of inflation, progressively devaluing the purchasing power of savings. Thus, according to Kiyosaki, the dollar is not the best investment.

However, the crisis in Iran is just one of the factors contributing to the overall price rise. The national debt will compel the US government to print even more fake money. "Please protect yourself, your family, and your money. Invest in Gold, Silver, BTC, and ETH. These are real money that will increase their purchasing power as fake money continues to steal wealth from those who do nothing," Kiyosaki wrote.

As for the intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to focus on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the long-term bullish market, which has not gone away.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

#1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $80,600, with a target price of $81,600. At $81,600, I will exit the buy trades and sell back immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $80,200 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward the levels of $80,600 and $81,600.

Selling Scenario

#1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $80,200, with a target to decline to $79,500. At $79,500, I will exit the sell trades and buy back immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $80,600 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward $80,300 and $79,500.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

#1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,259, with a target price of $2,294. At $2,294, I will exit the buy trades and sell back immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary at $2,242 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward $2,259 and $2,294.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,242, with a target to decline to $2,207. At $2,207, I will exit the sell trades and buy back immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary at $2,259 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward $2,242 and $2,207.

The price test at 157.99 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 158.33.

The data released today showed that corporate goods prices in Japan rose the most in 12 years in April, another sign that the war in Iran is intensifying inflationary pressures. All of this led to an increase in the yields of Japanese government bonds across the yield curve, exerting strong pressure on the yen against the dollar.

The rise in commodity prices, fueled by geopolitical events, is putting significant pressure on the Japanese economy. Companies are forced to raise prices on their products to compensate for increased costs, which in turn affects final consumers. This inflationary impulse, although not as sharp as in some other countries, nevertheless creates certain risks for economic growth stability.

Against the backdrop of increasing inflationary pressure, the Bank of Japan faces a difficult choice. The traditional accommodative monetary policy aimed at stimulating the economy has already come into conflict with the need to contain price growth. This raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of current measures and forces investors to reassess their expectations for future monetary policy, creating even greater uncertainty in the currency market, as reflected in the yen's weakening.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 158.70 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.27 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.27, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and on serious dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.44 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 158.70 and 159.27.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 158.44 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 157.93, where I intend to exit the shorts and also open longs immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers may return at any moment, especially with any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.70 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 158.44 and 157.93.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test at 1.3508 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell to the target level of 1.3458.

The pound fell sharply after news of a potential leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer from Andy Burnham, one of the most respected politicians in the Labour Party, caused turbulence in the financial market. This development seriously questions not only the stability of the current government but also its ability to effectively manage the state debt, which is currently under close scrutiny from economists and investors. The uncertainty surrounding future party leadership generates concerns regarding the consistency of economic policy. Investors, whose decisions largely depend on predictability and stability, have begun withdrawing their assets, leading to a rapid devaluation of the national currency. Such political upheavals cannot have long-term consequences for the UK's financial stability; however, they exert strong pressure on traders and investors in the moment.

Today, the lack of significant macroeconomic indicators from the United Kingdom in the first half of the day may provide the British pound with a short-term reprieve from recent declines. In the context of internal political instability related to a potential challenge to the Prime Minister, the absence of new reports might help stabilize the market, allowing it to digest prior information and its long-term implications. This period of calm is likely to lead to a temporary halt in active sales of the pound. However, it should be understood that this is merely a temporary quiet phase. The accumulated pressure on the pound, driven by political uncertainty and concerns about managing state debt, remains.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy pounds today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3368 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 1.3416 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3416, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions back in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pound growth can only be anticipated following good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3336 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.3368 and 1.3416.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell pounds today after updating the level to 1.3336 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3278 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3368 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3336 and 1.3278.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test at 1.1704 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential.

The acceleration of inflation in the US, fueled by geopolitical upheavals in the Middle East, particularly the conflict in Iran, has heightened concern in financial markets, strengthening the dollar and weakening the euro. Market participants have become much more cautious about the prospects for US monetary policy easing. Now, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will have to maintain high interest rates for a longer period has significantly increased. Moreover, the scenario of further monetary tightening is not ruled out if inflationary pressures continue to accelerate, overshadowing any signs of a possible slowdown.

Today, the first half of the day will be marked by the release of important macroeconomic data from Italy—the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This indicator is a key measure of inflationary processes in the country, reflecting changes in prices for goods and services consumed by households. Data on Italy's CPI may provide insights into current inflationary pressures and influence expectations of the Bank of Italy's monetary policy. Investors will closely analyze both the overall CPI and its components to identify potential trends and risks.

Simultaneously with the Italian data, the European Central Bank economic bulletin is expected to be published. The ECB's economic bulletin is an important source of information for market participants as it contains the central bank's official assessment and can serve as a guideline for future decisions. Particular attention will be paid to any references to potential changes in interest rates and inflation, as well as to assessments of the impact of external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, on the eurozone economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros if the price reaches the area around 1.1656 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1685. At 1.1685, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after strong eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1631 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1656 and 1.1685.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1631 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit the market and buy back immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1656 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1631 and 1.1594.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Rising US inflation, driven by the escalation of the conflict in Iran, has become a catalyst for heightened expectations about the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are increasingly leaning towards the view that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period, with some even considering the possibility of further hikes by the end of the current year. This outlook has already had a significant impact on currency markets, leading to the strengthening of the US dollar yesterday.

In the current conditions, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to rise and inflationary pressures in the US economy accelerate, the central bank's wait-and-see stance becomes increasingly justified. Interest rate hikes, which have been increasingly discussed by Fed officials, are a traditional tool for combating inflation but can slow economic growth.

As noted earlier, the British pound has taken a hit amid political uncertainty. Rumors of a potential leadership challenge within the Labor Party from Andy Burnham have negatively impacted financial markets. These events raise doubts not only about the stability of the current government but also about its ability to manage the public debt, which is under close scrutiny. The news of a potential leadership rivalry between Starmer and Burnham, who has significant support, immediately affected the pound's exchange rate.

Today, the economic calendar is expected to be calm in the first half of the day. However, the scheduled reports could impact markets, particularly in Europe. The main focus will be on the data from Italy and the analytical review from the European Central Bank. The inflation indicator is fundamental for assessing inflationary processes in the country and reflects the dynamics of prices for consumer goods and services. The Italian CPI figures can provide insight into the level of inflationary pressure in the third-largest economy in the eurozone, which, in turn, could adjust expectations regarding the monetary policy of both the Bank of Italy and the ECB as a whole.

Alongside the Italian data, the ECB's economic bulletin is expected to be released. This document contains a detailed analysis of the current economic situation in the eurozone, risk assessments and outlooks, and comments on monetary policy.

Regarding the pound, the absence of significant macroeconomic data from the UK in the first half of today could provide GBP/USD with a temporary respite from recent pressures. Against the backdrop of internal political uncertainties caused by a potential challenge to the Prime Minister's leadership, the lack of new statistical signals from the island could contribute to some stabilization, allowing the market to digest previous news and assess its long-term consequences.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it would be best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, using the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD pair:

• Long positions on a breakout of the level 1.1657 may lead to an increase in the euro to the areas of 1.1678 and 1.1701.
• Short positions on a breakout of the level 1.1633 may lead to a decline in the euro to the areas of 1.1613 and 1.1592.

For the GBP/USD pair:

• Longs on a breakout of the level 1.3381 may lead to an increase in the pound to the areas of 1.3416 and 1.3455.
• Shorts on a breakout of the level 1.3340 may lead to a decline in the pound to the areas of 1.3315 and 1.3283.

For the USD/JPY pair:

• Longs on a breakout of the level 158.65 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the areas of 159.00 and 159.29.
• Shorts on a breakout of the level 158.40 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar to the areas of 158.20 and 157.96.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1663 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1636 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3393 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3340 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7194 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7154 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3757 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3725 on a return to this level.

Shocking inflation data and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed (bond yields rising) create a classic bearish macro backdrop. However, the technology sector, fuelled by hopes of eased China restrictions and resilient corporate profits, continues to push the index higher, as noted in our fundamental note and the overview "S&P500 (SPX): the tech locomotive ignores the inflation shock."

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 remains in a sustained global bull market, showing strong bullish momentum after a powerful rebound from lows around 6,310 in late March.

On short, medium, and long timeframes, the index trades above key moving averages (50/144/200), and primary indicators remain in bullish territory.

The base bullish scenario assumes a continued uptrend after the consolidation phase. A confident break and hold above the local resistance level of 7,475 would open the way to test the psychological 7,500 level and then 7,600.

This scenario requires:

• No negative surprises from the US–China summit;
• Continued resilience in corporate profits (Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000);
• Stabilization of geopolitical developments.

Note: On the daily chart, RSI and Stochastic indicators are in overbought territory, and OsMA, while above zero, has flattened and slightly retreated. This raises the odds of short-term consolidation or a correction after the extended advance.

A short-term correction as part of a bearish scenario is possible due to technical overbought conditions and renewed inflation concerns. A break of today's low at 7,448, followed by a breach of the round 7,400 level, would signal a move toward lower targets.

Targets: support at 7,347 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), then 7,200 and 7,105 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), and 7,040 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

The most likely scenario for the coming days is continued consolidation in the 7,400–7,500 range, with a possible dip to 7,347 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The market will digest summit news and assess concrete trade and tech outcomes, which may be less significant than expected.

Traders are advised to watch the US–China summit, retail sales data, and commentary from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Support levels: 7,400.00, 7,347.00, 7,300.00, 7,200.00, 7,105.00, 7,100.00, 7,040.00, 7,000.00, 6,900.00, 6,840.00, 6,800.00, 6,735.00, 6,700.00, 6,660.00, 6,600.00, 6,530.00, 6,500.00, 64,00.00

Resistance levels: 7,475.00, 7,500.00, 7,600.00, 7,700.00, 7,800.00, 7,900.00, 8,000.00

Trading scenarios

• Bullish: Buy-stop orders at 7,480. Stop-loss: 7,440, 7,390. Targets: 7,500, 7,600, 7,700, 7,800, 7,900, 8,000.
• Bearish: Sell-stop orders at 7,440, 7,390. Stop-loss: 7,480. Targets: 7,347, 7,300, 7,200, 7,105, 7,100, 7,040, 7,000, 6,900, 6,840, 6,800, 6,735, 6,700, 6,660, 6,600, 6,530, 6,500, 6,400.

Note: "Targets" correspond to the support/resistance levels listed above. They are reference points for planning and order placement, not guaranteed outcomes.

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In the meantime, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that Bitcoin develops (in the long term) according to an S-curve. This curve signifies a slow movement at first, followed by rapid acceleration. At the end of the curve, the asset should be fully adopted by the masses. Scaramucci compared Bitcoin to the stocks of Amazon and Microsoft, finding similarities in the development of these instruments. In the early years of their existence, these companies grew slowly but then experienced explosive growth, and their products began to be used widely. According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin is currently in the middle of its S-curve.

The expert also noted that fiat money loses its appeal each year due to inflation and central bank actions. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is an improved form of money, decentralized and independent of the will of corporations, governments, or central banks. According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin cannot be devalued, and an increasing number of companies and individuals are beginning to use this "digital gold."

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend and a correction against it. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line remains at the level of $97,900. Only above this level can it be said that the downward trend has ended. As there are no signs of a trend change to bullish, we believe that the decline will resume sooner or later. On the daily timeframe, the nearest area of POI for new sell transactions is in the range of $79,500 - $81,100. This area has been tested twice, and the price reaction to it has been very weak. Consequently, it is likely that this pattern will be invalidated, and Bitcoin may continue to rise to the next FVG in the area of $84,900 - $88,800. The liquidity pool below the trend line remains a price target. A small bullish FVG has also been formed. A reaction to it could signal the continuation of the correction and allow traders to open small long positions.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues its upward movement, which remains a correction. The CHOCH line of the current upward structure is at $74,950; a consolidation below this level will signal a potential break in the trend. This could be a very important signal for the market regarding a trend change. The completion of the upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe may serve as a starting point for a new round of the trend on the daily timeframe. There are still no fundamental grounds for Bitcoin's long-term strengthening. Spot interest is very weak.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a complete downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline, targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year upward trend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Among the POI areas currently, the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe is in the range of $79,300 - $81,200. It has not yet been completely invalidated, but may be invalidated soon. In this case, the area of POI for sales will be $84,900-$88,800 (the next bearish FVG). The decline targets remain below the $60,000 level. For long positions, the only bullish FVG on the daily timeframe can be used, but it should be remembered that any rise in cryptocurrency now is inherently a correction.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

CHOCH – Change of Trend Structure.

Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves through these areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it; it breaks impulsively and then tests it from the other side.

OB – Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position with the aim of gathering liquidity to form their position in the opposite direction.

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The only noteworthy report is the US industrial production report, but it has very low odds of triggering a response from traders. The most important macroeconomic data under current circumstances may provoke a muted market reaction; other reports are unlikely to capture traders' attention. Geopolitics continues to dominate, with its influence on the market weakening, yet it remains the main driver of currency instruments.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy among the fundamental events on Friday, but this is not necessary. We have been well aware of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve's plans. This week, it became known that the ECB may raise the key interest rate at the next meeting, the BoE will likely follow the ECB's lead, and the Fed will wait until the fourth quarter to assess inflation and make a decision. Thus, if we are to expect any policy tightening in the near future, it will only come from European central banks. This factor should have supported the euro and the pound, yet the market continues to trade primarily on geopolitical factors.

The geopolitical backdrop has begun to change, but unfortunately, words still convey one message while facts tell another. Over the past two weeks, the parties have violated the ceasefire three times, and another round of negotiations has collapsed with a bang. Currently, the negotiations are on pause, and Donald Trump intends to continue the conflict with Iran. Therefore, there is no chance of immediate unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz or of resolving the conflict.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their corrective trends. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3380-1.3386. Traders' sentiment is currently influenced solely by the geopolitical backdrop. The absence of news is more likely to be bad than good.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair plummeted by 130 pips on Thursday, driven by a combination of negative factors this week. The key factor was, of course, geopolitics, as Iran and the US have begun to drift away from a peaceful agreement and nuclear deal, and the temporary ceasefire could end at any moment. However, the political crisis in the UK and high inflation in the US also played a role. It can be said that in the first three days of the week, the market was still holding back from a mass sell-off of the pair, but on Thursday, nerves gave way. Therefore, without any visible reason, the British pound fell sharply. On the other hand, the data on industrial production and GDP for the first quarter that were published in the UK yesterday were not bad at all. At the very least, the figures were no worse than the forecasts. Thus, it is definitely not the British data that triggered the collapse. The same situation applies to the American data. The inflation report increased the likelihood of at least one tightening of monetary policy in 2026, but it is not the primary reason for the pair's decline.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, there was exactly one trading signal formed on Thursday. During the American trading session, the pair consolidated below the 1.3456-1.3476 range, allowing traders to open short positions. By Friday morning, the nearest target area, 1.3380-1.3386, was reached, and traders could have made about 60 pips of profit on this trade.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is starting a downward trend due to geopolitical pressure. Without a significant escalation in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect to grow as it did in February and March. Nevertheless, individual events can still trigger their strengthening, which we have been observing in recent days. The British currency retains excellent upward potential, according to trends on the daily and weekly timeframes.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.3319-1.3331, as the pair has consolidated below the 1.3380-1.3386 range. A consolidation above the 1.3380-1.3386 area will allow for long positions with a target of 1.3456-1.3476.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. Today, no significant events are scheduled in the UK, while in the US, only a report on industrial production will be released. Thus, today, technical analysis and geopolitics will prevail.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which began on Monday when news of a failed negotiation between Iran and the US broke. Since then, no positive information regarding the military conflict has been received. The parties have not officially exited the negotiation process, but it is unclear whether any telephone dialogue is currently taking place. As a result, market optimism regarding peace in the Middle East and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz has sharply diminished. Consequently, the dollar has been rising for the fifth consecutive day. But how long can this geopolitical factor support the dollar this time? We believe not for long. On the hourly or 4-hour timeframe, it is clear that the current movement, which began on April 17, is a correction against a stronger impulsive move. Thus, we are witnessing a prolonged and complex correction that does not yet have much chance of becoming an impulse. If war in the Middle East resumes (which could happen at any time), the dollar will have a reason for a trend. However, even in that case, we do not expect the pair to fall below the March lows.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Thursday, and the day's overall volatility was again not the highest. The last sell signals were generated on Tuesday, and novice traders, considering the weak volatility, could have carried them over to Wednesday and even Thursday. As a result, the target area of 1.1655-1.1666 was achieved.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend is maintained, and the euro has been in correction for several weeks. The rise of the US dollar has resumed, as the conflict in the Middle East is on the brink of escalation, but we do not expect long-term growth for the US currency. The market continues to ignore fundamentals and macroeconomics.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1584-1.1591 if the price consolidates below the 1.1655-1.1666 area. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the 1.1655-1.1666 area, with targets at 1.1745-1.1754.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Friday, there are no significant macroeconomic events scheduled in the European Union, while in the US, a report on industrial production will be released. This report is interesting, but the market is unlikely to notice it, as it has not noticed most data over the past three months.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are key to long-term trading success.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Thursday than in the first days of the week, even avoiding a decline. Recall that this week, the market actively reacted to a new failure in negotiations between Iran and the US, Trump's words that "the ceasefire is hanging by a thread," another political crisis in the UK, and possibly the US inflation report. It is on the latter event that we will focus in this article.

We want to immediately note that macroeconomic data continue to be ignored by the market. There is currently no correlation between inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rates. However, the market will not always ignore macroeconomics, and we do not yet know what the Fed's policy will be under the new head, Kevin Warsh. Yes, there is an opinion that Warsh will adhere to "dovish" views, as that was a key requirement from Trump for candidates for the position of Fed chair. But in reality, no one yet knows what Warsh will demand, whether he will insist on anything, or how Trump plans to influence the FOMC to conduct monetary easing through Warsh.

Thus, hypothetically, high inflation is the US dollar's main ally. The higher inflation, the greater the likelihood that the Fed will indeed have to raise rates in 2026. Consider this: in April, inflation jumped to 3.8%, up from 2.4% just two months ago. In just two months, inflation has nearly doubled. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, strategic reserves of oil and gas are depleting worldwide, and Donald Trump and the Iranian authorities have not even managed to negotiate an intermediate deal. Therefore, there are no chances for the reopening of the Strait in the near future. Consequently, the Strait will remain closed, the oil shortage will persist, and prices will likely continue to rise. Following this, inflation will increase as well.

Here, the Fed finds itself not merely in a trap but in a snare set by Trump. The American president, who has been demanding a cut in the key rate for a year and a half, is himself driving up inflation, making the reduction of the key rate virtually impossible. Moreover, to tame rising prices, the Fed must simply tighten policy. And most likely, this will need to happen multiple times. But how can Warsh support tighter policies when he enters the Fed with a "dovish mandate"? How can he advocate easing policy when such a stance amid rising inflation would cause laughter worldwide and, of course, be rejected by the majority of the Monetary Committee?

This situation is not even a "stalemate," but rather a "snare." Raising the rate is not an option, as the economy would slow down even further while Trump does everything to ensure it falls rather than grows. Lowering the rate is also not viable, because inflation could spike to double-digit levels. A "wonderful" position for the American central bank. By the way, the market still allows for the possibility that the Fed will raise rates once before the end of the year. However, it assumes that this will not happen before December. Therefore, until December, the Fed will have to watch with sad eyes as inflation rises, which took several years to control.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 85 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Friday, May 15, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3393 and 1.3563. The upper linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating a restoration of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has not generated signals lately.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3428

S2 – 1.3367

S3 – 1.3306

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3489

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to recover after two "months of geopolitics." Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy; therefore, we do not expect the US dollar to grow in 2026. Consequently, long positions with targets of 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. Conversely, if the price is below the moving average line, short positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3393 can be considered on technical grounds. In recent weeks, the British currency has recovered, and the geopolitical factor has continued to diminish its influence on the market.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels help identify the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently proceed.
• Murray Levels serve as target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will trade over the coming days, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) signifies that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly on Thursday. Traders should not be disturbed by the fact that the pair has only been declining this week. Firstly, its losses are minimal. Secondly, the decline is clearly occurring within the framework of a correction. Thirdly, the key factor supporting the US dollar in 2026 has almost been neutralized. It has been neutralized not because the conflict in the Middle East is over or will not resume, but simply because of expiration timelines. Let us remember that geopolitics is a powerful influencing factor in the currency market, but conflicts are usually prolonged. It is hard to imagine that another war in today's turbulent world, lasting several years, will be a determining factor for the movement of the dollar or euro throughout the entire period of hostilities.

Essentially, no positive developments have been observed since the establishment of a temporary ceasefire. And it has already been five full weeks since then. It has been a considerable amount of time to at least sign a memorandum of understanding or a temporary agreement. However, the parties continue to bombard each other with ultimatums, so negotiations have not shifted an inch. It turns out that five full weeks have been wasted, and Tehran and Washington have not moved even a centimeter closer to unlocking the Strait of Hormuz.

And if the situation remained as it is, that would not be the worst scenario. Few people now believe in the Strait's unblocking. A new acronym, NACHO, has even emerged, standing for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens." However, the longer negotiations remain stalled, the higher the likelihood of escalation into war. Let us recall that Donald Trump initiated military operations in Iran with one goal in mind: to achieve complete denuclearization. If that goal is not achieved (and it has not been), Trump will be asked by all of America why this war was even necessary, which led to soaring inflation and wild increases in the prices of oil, gas, and fuel.

Of course, Trump will announce the "Iranian nuclear threat," but not many believe him anymore. He could just as easily announce a nuclear threat from Malaysia at any moment. The possibility of enriching uranium exists in many countries around the world; that does not mean that each of them intends to strike American cities. So, there is no victory – there are no votes in the upcoming elections. Trump understands this, so he may resume the war to pressure Iran. Unfortunately, in our view, this is the most likely scenario, as we do not see the conflicting parties moving closer to an agreement. Moreover, yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted an angry message on X, calling on the world to "put an end to American despotism." Not the most peaceful rhetoric if Tehran were genuinely striving for a peaceful deal. However, Trump's rhetoric is no better...

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days, as of May 15, is 54 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1624 and 1.1732 on Friday. The upper linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating a trend change to bullish. In fact, the upward trend of 2025 could have resumed a month ago. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and formed two bearish divergences, signaling the start of a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1658

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1536

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1719

R2 – 1.1780

R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to maintain an upward trend amid the weakening influence of geopolitics on market sentiment and a reduction in geopolitical tension. The overall fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, so in the long term, we still expect the pair to rise. If the price is below the moving average, shorts can be considered with targets at 1.1658 and 1.1624 on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902. The market continues to move away from geopolitical factors, while the dollar continues to lose its only growth driver.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels help identify the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently proceed.
• Murray Levels serve as target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will trade over the coming days, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) signifies that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Thursday, which this time resembled a collapse. The geopolitical factor, a new political crisis in the UK, and high US inflation are the reasons for the British pound's fall this week. We expected the drop to be completed in the area of 1.3465-1.3480; however, at this moment, it appears this did not occur. Thus, the trend on the hourly timeframe has changed to downward.

Should we expect further declines for the British currency? Given the current conditions, probably yes. The bulls did not hold the market, so the bears now dominate. We do not expect a trend similar to what was observed in February and March, but! Time is passing, negotiations are stalled, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the political crisis in the UK may end with yet another Prime Minister's resignation. The macroeconomic backdrop continues to be ignored by the market. Yesterday, the UK published reports on GDP and industrial production, and the US published a retail sales report. It is impossible to say that these reports provoked a strong decline in the pair.

On the 5-minute timeframe yesterday, one trading signal was formed. During the American trading session, the pair began to fall and breached the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Thus, traders had a good opportunity to open short positions targeting 1.3369-1.3377. Overall, we do not expect significant strengthening of the US dollar yet, but with a downward trend now, declines should be anticipated first and foremost.

Analysis of GBP/USD 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, we analyze according to the ICT trading system. The British pound is very strongly correlated with the euro, just as Ethereum is with Bitcoin. Therefore, attention should always be paid to the patterns and signals of EUR/USD. And yesterday was just such a situation. A sell signal was generated for the euro, but none was generated for the British pound. However, both pairs showed a significant decline. The trend on the 4-hour timeframe has changed to downward as the CHOCH line was broken. Unfortunately, the nearest "bearish" pattern did not form, but after such a strong decline, new FVG patterns will emerge. The main task now is to quickly understand what caused the British pound's drop on Thursday.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has been declining throughout the current week. The sideways channel was not confirmed; the price did not remain within its range. The British pound is heading into a more pronounced correction for several reasons, including geopolitical factors. The macroeconomic and fundamental factors still have little influence on the pair's movements.

On May 15, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3550) and Kijun-sen (1.3560) may also serve as sources for signals. It is recommended to place the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Friday, there are no important events or reports planned in the UK, while the US will release a report on industrial production. We do not believe this report will affect the pair's movement. Traders should continue to closely monitor geopolitics.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may remain in short positions after the price consolidates below the 1.3465-1.3480 area, with a target of 1.3369-1.3377. Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above the 1.3465-1.3480 area, targeting the Ichimoku indicator's lines. On the 4-hour timeframe, one should expect the formation of new "bearish" patterns and trade from them.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Levels – Thick red lines at which market movement may end. These are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines – Lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are considered strong lines.
• Extreme Levels – Thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. These are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines – Trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
• CHOCH – Change of the trend structure.
• Liquidity – Liquidity, Stop Loss, and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. The price rapidly passes through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one party in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to these areas in alignment with the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react from it; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position aimed at capturing liquidity to form their position in the opposite direction.

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Thursday, although there were few strong reasons for this. However, the market is again anticipating an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and there are all grounds for this. After another failure in negotiations between Iran and the US was announced on Monday, no further information has been received. In other words, the negotiations between Tehran and Washington are currently on pause, and the parties are again exchanging mutual threats. Traders justifiably concluded that the absence of negotiations equals the resumption of conflict. The only question is timing. Thus, the US dollar has been in demand throughout the current week. Additionally, the market now allows for the possibility that the Federal Reserve's stance may shift to a more "hawkish" one due to rapidly rising inflation.

From a technical perspective, a new downward trend is forming, but we still assume the EUR/USD pair is within the sideways channel of 1.1666-1.1786. Therefore, attention should be focused on the area between 1.1657 and 1.1666. We have repeatedly noted that the geopolitical factor is weakening its influence on the currency market, and the dollar has been rising for nearly an entire week. Around the area of 1.1657-1.1666, its ascent may come to an end.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, no trading signals were formed. The pair approached the Senkou Span B line during the European trading session, but failed to act on it. Thus, the last sell signal was generated on Wednesday, following the breach of the Senkou Span B line. Short positions could very well be carried over to Thursday.

Analysis of EUR/USD 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, according to the ICT trading system, the situation was favorable for traders on Thursday. The upward trend was broken, a "bearish" FVG pattern formed in the area of 1.1718-1.1732, and then a clear sell signal was generated there, as we had warned the day before. Thus, traders could open short positions in line with the trend and from a clear area of POI. The last few candles were formed with gaps, so a new bearish FVG will be formed at their locations, from which new short positions can be opened in the future. The only caveat is to remember the possibility of a flat and the inability to breach the 1.1657-1.1666 area.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has turned downward. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, not getting any worse, but negotiations have stalled once again, allowing the dollar to show restrained growth. In the near future, the euro may drop to the area of 1.1657-1.1666, but whether it will go lower is a big question, as the probability of a flat remains in the range of 1.1666-1.1786.

On May 15, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1726) and the Kijun-sen (1.1735). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget about setting the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will safeguard against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Friday, no major events are scheduled in the European Union, while a report on industrial production will be released in the US. It is unlikely that the market will react to this report, so everything will depend on geopolitics and technical factors on the last trading day of the week.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open new short positions with a target in the 1.1615-1.1625 area and lower upon the price consolidating below the 1.1657-1.1666 area. Long positions can be opened in the case of a price bounce from the 1.1657-1.1666 area, with targets at 1.1726 and 1.1750-1.1760. On the 4-hour timeframe, one should expect the formation of new bearish patterns.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Levels – Thick red lines at which market movement may end. These are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines – Lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are considered strong lines.
• Extreme Levels – Thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. These are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines – Trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
• CHOCH – Change of the trend structure.
• Liquidity – Liquidity, Stop Loss, and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. The price rapidly passes through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one party in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to these areas in alignment with the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react from it; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position aimed at capturing liquidity to form their position in the opposite direction.

Currently, the topic of US inflation and its consequences is actively discussed in the currency market. Due to geopolitical factors, inflation has not taken center stage, although its effects are evident to many. There is little positivity within those effects. However, the market is not in a hurry to draw conclusions, as there are too many variables and unknowns in the current equation. Let's try to unpack this.

Before the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and during Donald Trump's presidency, the scenario would be quite straightforward. If inflation rises, the central bank should raise interest rates. An increase in the interest rate is a plus for the US currency. However, for the past year and a half, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been overshadowed by Trump's policies. If the US dollar is not plummeting like a rock to the Mariana Trench, it is consistently leaning towards decline. Even the supposed shift of the Fed to a "hawkish" stance does not change this.

Moreover, Trump continues to demand a softening of the policy. This is why he sought to oust "hawks" within the FOMC, including Jerome Powell himself. As everyone knows, Powell remains on the committee, and Kevin Warsh has predictably become the new chair. However, what changes in Fed policy are likely if inflation is rising, making it practically impossible to lower interest rates?

This is where things get interesting. Warsh and Stephen Miran will find grounds for policy easing. They do not have to look far—the American economy is slowing, and the labor market needs support. However, it is highly likely that Warsh and Miran will remain in the minority during FOMC votes, while Powell will keep a close watch over Fed officials, preventing them from even considering siding with Trump.

Thus, a rate cut seems practically impossible under the current circumstances, while raising rates would further hurt the US economy and labor market. Nevertheless, Trump will continue demanding lower rates, while inflation will keep accelerating. What does all this mean? In my view, the most straightforward scenario. The dollar will not change its course due to this "soap opera." The market priced in Trump's trade war last year, and in 2026, it is primarily concerned with Middle Eastern geopolitics. It is very likely that the Fed will not change the rate even once this year, and behind-the-scenes intrigues will interest few—there are more pressing topics in the market right now.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (see the lower chart), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave setup appears quite complete and may evolve into a more complex, elongated form. However, for that to happen, the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East needs to improve, rather than worsen. Therefore, without positive news, I expect the instrument to decline below the 1.1665 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% on the Fibonacci scale.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. We now see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts, which may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave setup to form after wave 5 completes. Wave 5 may be completed around the 1.3699 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale. If geopolitics continues to move toward long-term peace, a new bullish segment of the trend may begin after the correction wave setup concludes. Therefore, the combination of waves and geopolitical factors will determine the pound's fate in the coming weeks.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to act on and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Silver (XAG/USD) is down 3.20% on Thursday to $84.40. This drop is attributed to profit-taking by investors after the metal's recent rally. The decline is also occurring amid rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, which reduces the attractiveness of non-yielding assets.

The correction in the silver market followed a sharp surge earlier in the week when the metal benefited from technical momentum and increased demand for industrial metals. OCBC strategist Christopher Wong noted that the short-term rally in silver appears increasingly overbought and warned of profit-taking risks associated with this overextension, a behavior typical of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news."

The US dollar remains supported by strong expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The latest inflation data confirms the presence of persistent price pressure, while a steadily functioning labor market diminishes the need for easing monetary policy.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted on Thursday that ongoing inflation poses a significant risk to the economy. He added that while the US economy demonstrates resilience and the labor market continues to function effectively, high oil prices are still pressuring household and business expenses.

Increased expectations of rising interest rates are driving higher yields on US Treasury bonds and a strengthening dollar, creating obstacles for precious metals. In an environment where silver does not generate income, rising yields on fixed-income assets typically decrease its relative attractiveness for investors.

From a technical perspective, oscillators are positive, and silver is trading above key moving averages, confirming a positive sentiment, and the current decline is merely a correction.

As of the preparation of this material on Thursday, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil are hovering around $97.22, up 0.34% on the day, which was marked by heightened volatility. This benchmark American crude initially fell to $95.50—such was the market's initial reaction to the talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, shortly after, the quotes recovered and returned to an upward trend.

The price change occurred after White House representatives characterized the meeting between the presidents as "positive," emphasizing discussions aimed at enhancing economic partnership. The leaders agreed that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be ensured, which is particularly important for oil markets given the waterway's strategic significance to global oil trade.

These statements allowed for a slight reduction in the "geopolitical risk premium" that had been built into energy prices in recent weeks. The market cautiously monitored discussions regarding Iran, as it was expected that Trump would insist on the need for pressure on Tehran to achieve a peace agreement and fully restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also noted that he had "extremely productive and constructive" negotiations with Xi Jinping and invited the Chinese leader to visit the White House on September 24. In turn, Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of stable bilateral relations, calling for a partnership between China and the US rather than confrontation.

Despite this, expectations regarding the global supply continue to provide fundamental support for oil prices. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that this year, the global supply of oil is likely to fall below demand levels due to disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran in the Middle East. Currently, the agency expects global production to decline by about 3.9 million barrels per day this year, a significant revision from its previous estimate.

From a technical perspective, the oscillators are positive, indicating a bullish market advantage. Oil is trading above key moving averages, confirming the strength of the bulls. Therefore, bears are currently not in play.

On Thursday, during the North American session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its decline for the third consecutive day, losing about 0.22%. Pressure on the euro was exerted by US macroeconomic indicators, which confirmed the resilience of consumer activity. Additionally, labor market data recorded a moderate increase in initial jobless claims. Currently, the pair is attempting to hold a very important 20-day SMA.

The decline in the EUR/USD pair is largely due to persistent inflation, which reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy. For example, in April, US retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, matching market expectations but falling short of March's 1.6% increase. Year-on-year, the figure grew by 4.9%, significantly exceeding the forecast of 3.3%.

In additional data, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 9 increased to 211,000 from the expected 205,000. The structure of consumer spending is noteworthy amid the sharp rise in energy prices: revenue at gas stations increased by 2.8% after a surge of 13.7% the previous month. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline prices rose by 12.3% in April.

Overall, the dynamics of the dollar remain positive: the US Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects its value against a basket of six major currencies, increased by 0.33% to 98.77, setting a ten-day high.

Against this backdrop, the euro has come under pressure and is likely to maintain a downward trend following statements from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid. He noted that inflation poses the most serious threat to the US economy, while emphasizing the high resilience of economic activity and the effective functioning of the labor market.

Schmid's comments came shortly after the publication of updated consumer and producer price index data, which again confirmed the persistent nature of inflationary pressures. These figures remain significantly above the Fed's target rate of 2%, strengthening expectations of continued tight monetary policy. Estimates from money market participants indicate there is no basis for a decrease in Fed interest rates throughout 2026.

In the Eurozone, inflation in Spain in April stood at 3.2% year-on-year, matching forecasts and lower than March's 3.4%. In the near future, market participants will focus on the publication of Italy's inflation data.

According to currency dynamics, the euro has shown the most strength this week against the Japanese yen.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is trying to hold the 200-day SMA; if it drops below, the 50-day SMA around 1.1645 will provide support. If the pair fails to hold these levels, it will accelerate the decline toward the round level of 1.1600. The bulls need to return above the round level of 1.1700 and break through the 20-day SMA. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered negative territory, indicating the bulls' weakness.

According to the released data, the GDP of Britain increased by 0.3% on a month-on-month basis in March, whereas most experts had predicted an economic contraction of 0.2%. In the first quarter, the British economy grew by only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (with a forecast of 0.6%) – the same as in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, the GDP volume increased by 1.0%, while most experts expected to see a more modest result (0.8%).

In other words, the released report cannot be definitively characterized as strong or weak – its structure appears quite contradictory.

First, let's consider the strengths of the release.

Firstly, the services sector grew immediately by 0.8% over the quarter. The main contributions came from wholesale trade, the IT sector, and advertising. This indicates that the services sector remains highly active despite inflationary pressures.

Secondly, the construction sector showed positive dynamics after a long period of stagnation. Here, growth was recorded at 0.4%. The particularly sharp growth in March (by 1.5%) is especially impressive, which may signal a recovery in confidence in infrastructure projects.

The third positive aspect is consumer resilience. Despite the GfK consumer confidence index remaining in negative territory (-25 points in April), retail sales in Britain grew by 1.6% over the past three months, which supported overall GDP figures.

Moreover, for the first time in a long time, the growth of average wages (3.6%) after inflation adjustment began to outpace price growth, which theoretically creates a certain "safety buffer" for households.

However, apart from the strengths, the report also contains quite weak components. For example, while the industry improved, the manufacturing sector is essentially stagnant. Thus, while industrial production volume increased by 0.2% in March on a month-on-month basis (a weak but still growth), on a year-on-year basis, the figure was at a zero level (with a forecast of growth at 0.2%).

Additionally, part of the growth may have a temporary, situational character. The Middle Eastern conflict, or rather its economic consequences, played a role here. Many companies in March sought to front-load their purchases and stock in light of risks of supply disruptions and rising energy prices. Purchases of raw materials or components "for stock" are counted by statistical authorities in the components of "investments" and "change in inventories." Such an effect can artificially "lift" the first-quarter figures, but it typically results in a cooling of activity in the following quarter. In other words, in this case, it is not about a full-fledged increase in final demand, but rather about shifting part of future demand into the current period.

Thus, due to its contradictory nature, the released report failed to support the British currency.

However, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure not only due to the contradictory GDP data and the overall strengthening of the greenback (against the backdrop of a surge in risk-off sentiments) – additional pressure on the pound was exerted by recent political events in the UK.

Let me remind you that following the local elections, the ruling Labour Party suffered a painful defeat, losing control over several municipal councils. Such disappointing results (after a convincing victory in the parliamentary elections) intensified intra-party criticism against Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his political course. The intra-party crisis moved into an open phase and on Thursday, resulted in a loud resignation in the Cabinet. Starmer's main rival, Wes Streeting, has stepped down. He is considered one of the most prominent politicians of the moderate wing of the Labour Party. After the party's victory in the national elections, he served as Health Minister for nearly two years and was widely regarded as a potential leadership contender. In his "farewell" open letter to the Prime Minister, he criticized him for lacking a clear political course, calling for a "leadership discussion."

This is a rather alarming signal for the Prime Minister – according to British media, Wes Streeting could gather sufficient support from MPs to call Starmer to account.

The rising political instability and the possibility of a change in the Prime Minister are exerting additional pressure on the British currency.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair on the four-hour chart is located between the average and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator and below all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which has formed a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. Such a technical picture indicates a priority for short positions, with the first and so far main target at 1.3470 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe).

The occupant of the White House has found himself in a difficult position. If he tries to obstruct the arms deal with Taiwan, he will face problems with Congress and voters who are already unhappy with the conflict in the Middle East. If he does not take this stance, he will incur Beijing's wrath. The global economy risks a third geopolitical flashpoint, which would increase demand for the US dollar as a safe haven and push EUR/USD below 1.17.

Dynamics of European PMI and Inflation

Investors are increasingly concerned about a possible European Central Bank rate hike in June. At the press conference following the last Governing Council meeting, Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in the need to tighten monetary policy. After this, the futures market began to forecast two to three acts of monetary tightening in 2026, with Bloomberg experts settling on two.

However, oil prices are not rising despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This means that inflation in the Eurozone is unlikely to increase as rapidly as the ECB feared. Against the backdrop of deteriorating business activity, the risks of a stagflation shock, warned of by Governing Council member Olli Rehn, are rising. Chief economist Philip Lane mentioned that a deterioration in domestic demand would significantly complicate adjustments to monetary policy.

Thus, the markets may have gotten ahead of themselves by signaling potential tightening of monetary policy, which initially supported EUR/USD. However, a rollback of such forecasts will likely cause the main currency pair to retreat. Moreover, macroeconomic data for the United States are providing increasingly compelling arguments in favor of a rate hike in the federal funds rate.

Dynamics of US Producer Prices

Following an impressive increase in non-farm employment in the US by 115,000 and the acceleration of consumer prices to 3.8%, producer prices have also delivered good news. In April, they rose by 6%, marking the highest level since 2022.

When the labor market is strong and inflation is accelerating, it is an appropriate time to consider tightening monetary policy to prevent overheating in the economy. The more members of the FOMC lean towards this idea, the better the US dollar will perform.

Technically, on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of the fair value range at 1.1685-1.1775. If successful, the risks of further declines in the euro towards $1.159 and $1.154 will increase, providing traders with an opportunity to sell.

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (lower chart). In the short term, the market is still developing a structure that was initially interpreted as corrective but is now viewed as impulsive.

The growth of both the euro and the British pound has been supported by the Middle East ceasefire, which has lasted for about a month (with occasional disruptions) and still has the potential to become the basis for a full peace agreement. However, recent rhetoric from Iranian and US leaders has become more aggressive and uncompromising, which could erase any optimism regarding a peace deal.

The latest upward wave sequence has formed a five-wave structure, and wave 5 may already be complete. If this is the case, a corrective structure of at least three waves is expected. Depending on developments in the Middle East, if no new escalation occurs and Tehran and Washington continue working toward a final ceasefire, the instrument may resume a new upward trend after the correction.

The GBP/USD pair fell by 20 basis points on Thursday, with extremely low volatility throughout the session. Over the week, the pound has already lost 135 points, which is not particularly significant given the news background. Most importantly, this scenario was expected after the formation of a five-wave impulsive structure.

The internal wave 5 of wave 5 appears weak and failed to break above the high of wave 3 of wave 5. However, truncated waves do occur, and the overall structure still remains technically valid.

The news background also fully supported the decline in the British pound. This week, risk-off sentiment increased sharply due to the potential escalation between Iran and the United States and near-zero expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In the UK, the ruling Labor Party suffered a decisive defeat in elections, and party members called on leader Keir Starmer to resign. Starmer refused to step down, but a new political crisis is emerging in the UK.

US inflation came in higher than expected, and there is little expectation of near-term disinflation. As a result, markets are now pricing in the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The final highlight came from today's UK GDP and industrial production reports. While they cannot be described as disastrous, they also contained little positive information.

Overall, the British pound is declining quite logically — both from a wave structure perspective and from a fundamental news-flow perspective. However, the information remains mixed and uncertain, so selling pressure on the pound is not yet widespread.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern of GBP/USD has gradually become clearer, as expected. We now see a distinct five-wave upward structure on the chart, which may already be complete.

If this is the case, a corrective wave sequence is expected, with targets around the 1.34 level. If geopolitics continues to move toward long-term peace, then after the correction completes, a new upward trend may begin.

Therefore, the combination of wave structure and geopolitical developments will determine the pound's direction in the coming weeks.

The higher-timeframe wave structure appears nearly ideal, even though wave 4 slightly exceeded the high of wave 1. However, perfect wave structures exist only in textbooks. In practice, markets are more complex.

Wave 4 has a classic three-wave structure, and after its completion, a new impulsive trend segment began forming.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often signal transitions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to trade.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend section (lower chart), which began in January last year. However, the current wave structure now appears highly ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest and smallest wave structures in order to make short-term forecasts, which are sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and may involve multiple scenarios. The simplest approach is to trade standard "five-three" patterns.

On the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extension in wave three. After this structure was completed, a corrective sequence of at least three waves began forming. However, this structure may still develop into an impulsive five-wave form, which is entirely possible. Nevertheless, we cannot be confident that wave five is forming, as a corrective structure is still expected. In classical terms, it should take a three-wave form. If that is indeed the case, then a new downward trend leg began on April 17.

The euro continues to decline due to U.S. inflation.

The EUR/USD pair fell by 15 basis points on Thursday and has lost 100 points this week overall. This is not particularly significant, and the instrument's daily volatility remains relatively low. Rather, the market continues cautious selling while remaining ready to return to buying at any moment.

This week, two key factors worked against the euro and in favor of the dollar.

The first was a new geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Iran and the United States once again failed to agree on the terms of a future deal, and at the beginning of the week exchanged aggressive rhetoric, which, however, did not escalate into actual conflict. Fortunately. Nevertheless, risk-off sentiment increased immediately, leading to strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

The second factor was U.S. inflation. No one had doubts that inflation would rise — not only in the United States but globally. However, April CPI data showed that it is increasing faster than economists expected. Inflation rose to 3.8% year-over-year, forcing both the market and the Federal Reserve to shift expectations toward monetary tightening.

At present, there is no discussion of interest rate hikes. This has been stated by several Federal Reserve officials. Policymakers believe rates should remain unchanged for some time in order to properly assess the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the market itself is beginning to lean toward the possibility of policy tightening before the end of the year, which is also supporting the U.S. dollar.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend structure (lower chart), while in the short term it is forming a corrective structure. The corrective wave sequence appears mostly complete but may develop into a more complex and extended formation. However, this would require improvement in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

Therefore, without positive news, I expect the instrument to decline below 1.1665, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such situations do occur. It is important to focus on identifiable structures rather than forcing interpretation of every wave.

The latest waves are difficult to classify, which is why I rely on the higher timeframe for analysis.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often signal transitions.
2. If there is no confidence in market direction, it is better not to trade.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

So far, this pressure has not been enough to completely break the bullish impulse, but bears continue to apply pressure because optimism regarding a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has fallen to near-zero levels.

The problem is that time is passing, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global oil supplies are tightening, and Iran and the United States are not moving closer to consensus on the key issues required to sign an agreement. As a result, the market is gradually losing faith that any agreement between Tehran and Washington is even possible.

A new acronym has even appeared — NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens). In other words, there is virtually no expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon.

I have previously written that there are currently no signs of a near-term agreement between Iran and the United States. I also noted that bulls would struggle to maintain attacks under such a news backdrop. The bullish impulse has not completely faded yet, but it is close to doing so.

In the current situation, traders looking to open new positions are left waiting for the formation of new bullish patterns or signals while hoping the bullish impulse remains intact. I still consider the trend bullish.

Among the bullish patterns currently visible are Imbalances 13 and 14, which create two potential areas of interest for long positions. There are currently no bearish patterns at all, so even if the trend has already shifted bearish, there is still no technical basis for opening short positions. The only notable event was the liquidity sweep on May 6, but a liquidity sweep alone is not considered a pattern.

It is also important to note once again that the entire rise of the U.S. dollar between January and March was driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and for more than a month the market has mostly been controlled by bulls.

At present, the ceasefire remains fragile, but negotiations continue, and hopes for peace still exist. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the breakdown of important trend-forming lows and despite the war involving Iran.

Markets often price in the most pessimistic scenario immediately, attempting to anticipate the most extreme developments. Therefore, I believe traders may have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In that case, bears may only be capable of isolated attacks.

The overall technical picture is currently very clear. The bullish advance remains intact but desperately requires support. Ideally, that support would come from geopolitics — specifically, if Iran and the United States continue moving toward compromise.

Without a positive news backdrop, bulls may still continue advancing, but the pace will certainly not be strong or aggressive.

Thursday's economic backdrop provided traders with no meaningful information. The market is waiting for some kind of clear resolution in the Middle East but instead received another speech from Christine Lagarde, even though everyone already expects the ECB to raise interest rates next month.

The U.S. retail sales report released today also matched market expectations exactly.

There are still many reasons for bulls to remain active in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies — which contributed to the significant decline of the dollar last year — have not changed.

Over the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen due to investor flight from risk, but this factor requires constant escalation in the Middle East conflict. I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but what will sustain bearish attacks over the longer term?

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• United States — Industrial Production Change (12:30 UTC)

The May 15 economic calendar contains only one event, which I would not classify as particularly important — especially under current conditions. Therefore, the impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is likely to remain weak.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered canceled or completed.

Therefore, bulls may well resume their advance in the near future, provided geopolitics does not suddenly shift toward a new escalation.

Traders previously had opportunities to open long positions based on the signal from Imbalance 12 and from the order block signal. The upward movement may continue toward this year's highs.

However, in the coming days it will be important for bulls to maintain market control. For the euro to continue rising without major obstacles, the Middle East conflict must continue moving toward sustainable peace, and signs of de-escalation do occasionally appear — though still relatively rarely.

At the moment, bullish traders do not yet have sufficient support for a new strong impulse, which is why upward progress remains slow and difficult.

The main zones for new long positions remain Imbalances 13 and 14.