The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no reason to speak about the cancellation of the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year, but the trend structure now looks highly ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and analyzing the simplest and smallest wave structures in order to make a short-term forecast, which is usually sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be extremely complex and may imply multiple possible scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave. After the completion of this structure, the market began forming a corrective sequence consisting of at least three waves. We have already seen three waves, which means the market is likely to form at least one more corrective downward wave in the near future. Further developments will depend on geopolitics: either the upward structure becomes more complex, or a new downward trend segment begins.

The EUR/USD pair rose by 50 basis points on Friday, despite a highly contradictory news backdrop throughout the day.

To begin with, Iran and the United States exchanged missile strikes yesterday, once again casting doubt on future negotiations and the possibility of reaching a peace agreement. However, the following day (today), both Tehran and Washington made official statements confirming that negotiations are continuing and that the latest escalation will not affect them. Consequently, both sides appear committed to resolving the conflict rather than escalating it further, although each side continues responding to what it considers unfair actions by the other.

Apparently, this understanding once again worked against the U.S. dollar and against EUR/USD sellers. Yesterday evening, demand for the dollar increased, but today it declined sharply again.

Today also brought U.S. labor market and unemployment data. Many market participants expected another disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report, but that did not happen. The number of new nonfarm jobs created in April totaled 115,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 62,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, average wages increased by 3.6% (slightly below forecasts), while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in weaker than expected at 48.2 versus 49.5.

Thus, the consumer sentiment index may have pressured the dollar lower, but few would dispute that Nonfarm Payrolls is far more important. And this report should have supported the U.S. currency.

The conclusion? The market once again ignored economic data in favor of geopolitics.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a broader upward trend segment (lower chart) and, in the short term, within a corrective structure. The corrective wave sequence appears largely complete and may only become more complex and prolonged if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to improve. Otherwise, a new downward trend segment could begin from current levels.

We have already seen the corrective wave, and I expect the pair to resume its upward movement from current levels, targeting the area around the 1.1900 level.

On the smaller timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is somewhat unconventional, as the corrective waves vary considerably in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such situations do occur. I would also remind traders that it is best to focus on identifying clear and understandable structures on charts rather than attempting to label every single wave. The most recent waves are difficult to identify precisely, which is why my analysis relies more heavily on the higher timeframe.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change unexpectedly.
2. If there is no confidence in current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction never exists. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

Traders understand that the issues being discussed between the U.S. and Iran are so significant that the sides may ultimately fail to reach a final agreement. Therefore, they are not rushing to buy the euro or sell the safe-haven dollar. Nevertheless, the chart structure continues to clearly indicate bullish dominance. Thus, even without a corresponding signal, the euro may continue its upward movement, as I have repeatedly stated over recent months.

In the current situation, traders waiting to open new positions can either wait for imbalance 13 to be tested or for new bullish patterns to emerge. I still consider the trend bullish. Last week, bulls came very close to testing imbalance 13 and receiving a new buy signal. Notably, there are no bearish patterns at all, so there is no clear basis even hypothetically for selling the pair. The previous buy signal from imbalance 12 worked perfectly, with the euro gaining approximately 270 points. Now the market is ready for new signals and another upward move.

I must once again emphasize that the entire rise of the U.S. dollar between January and March was driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, the bears immediately retreated, and for more than a month now bulls have dominated the market. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile, but negotiations continue and the chances for peace still exist. I have repeatedly said that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the break below important trend-defining lows and despite the conflict in Iran.

The market often immediately prices in the most pessimistic scenario, attempting to anticipate the most extreme chain of events. Therefore, I believe traders may have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. If so, the bears may have retreated for a long time.

The overall chart picture is currently very clear. The bullish advance remains intact, although it requires support. Ideally, that support would come from geopolitics — namely, continued progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States. However, even without such a news backdrop, bulls are still capable of continuing the rally, though it would likely proceed more gradually.

Friday's economic backdrop gave bears an opportunity to recover some of their recent losses. The Nonfarm Payrolls report came in twice as strong as market expectations. In April, 115,000 new jobs were created, while traders had expected only 62,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. However, at this stage it can be said that traders ignored even these economic figures. Bulls continue to attack amid growing expectations of a memorandum being signed between Tehran and Washington.

Bulls still have many reasons to remain active in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not significantly reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies — which contributed to the sharp decline of the dollar last year — have not changed. In the coming months, the U.S. currency may occasionally strengthen amid investor flight to safety, but that factor would require ongoing escalation in the Middle East conflict. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar received temporary support from the market, but what fundamental drivers would allow bears to dominate in the long term?

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC)

The May 11 economic calendar contains only one event, which cannot be considered important. Therefore, the impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be very limited. The market may be closed for the weekend, but geopolitics does not pause on Saturdays and Sundays.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my opinion, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news background changed sharply three months ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, bulls may well continue their advance in the near term, unless geopolitics suddenly turns toward another escalation.

Traders had an opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, and the upward move may continue toward this year's highs. Imbalance 13 has also formed and may provide another bullish signal in the near future. For the euro to continue rising freely, the Middle East conflict must move toward a lasting peace, and some signs of de-escalation are already beginning to appear. Bullish traders still lack sufficient support for a new impulse move, but they may continue the advance even without it.

Only geopolitics can now interfere with the bulls' advance. In my view, geopolitical developments could reverse at any moment, so all news related to negotiations between Iran and the United States should be monitored closely. Yesterday, Iran and the U.S. exchanged new missile strikes, putting both the ceasefire and future negotiations at risk. Today, the Nonfarm Payrolls report came in twice as strong as forecasts. Thus, the bears now have reasons to launch their own attacks — although they do not always take advantage of them.

The situation surrounding the Middle East conflict remains uncertain, and traders are unclear about the market's next direction. Currently, bulls maintain the advantage, but a new escalation in the conflict could strengthen bearish pressure.

The pound's rally began with a "Three Drives Pattern." Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very start of the move, and the broader trend remains bullish. At present, the ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but the conflicting parties are still attempting to negotiate, at least according to media reports. Official talks may resume — but so may the conflict itself. The Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, though Tehran and Washington appear to be moving toward lifting it. The situation is gradually improving, but this assessment is based only on unverified information. Markets are currently filled with optimism, yet a harsh reality check could arrive at any moment.

The "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle, allowed bulls to go on the offensive. Imbalance 18 enabled traders to open long positions, while imbalance 19 provided another buying opportunity. Thus, within the current impulse move, we received three bullish signals, and this week a new bullish signal was formed within imbalance 20. However, while geopolitics allowed bulls to launch another advance, it could just as easily turn in favor of the bears.

Friday's economic news background favored the bears. US labor market statistics came in stronger than traders had expected, yet the market once again ignored them. Over recent months, traders have almost become accustomed to such behavior. Today, one of the most important reports — which previously triggered major market reactions — was effectively ignored.

In the United States, the overall news background still suggests that, in the long term, little can be expected other than continued dollar weakness. Even the conflict between Iran and the U.S. changes very little in this regard. Geopolitics temporarily reminded markets of the dollar's safe-haven status for about two months, but overall the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains difficult. The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and unlike the ECB and the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. In addition, four major protests against Donald Trump have already taken place across the United States, while the possible departure of Jerome Powell could further worsen the situation for the dollar — especially if the FOMC under Kevin Warsh adopts a more dovish stance. From an economic perspective, I see no fundamental basis for sustained dollar growth.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC)

The May 11 economic calendar contains only one secondary event. Therefore, the influence of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be extremely limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" warned traders about the beginning of the rally, and since then three bullish patterns and three bullish signals have already formed. Therefore, despite geopolitical risks, I continue to expect further appreciation of the pound under current conditions. However, it must be acknowledged that geopolitics could easily spoil the bulls' momentum. My target for the pound remains the 2026 high at 1.3867. The reaction to imbalance 20 allowed traders to open long positions for the third or fourth time already.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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ETH/USD is trading around $2,277.90, below the 200 EMA and within the uptrend channel formed since May 5. The chart shows that the instrument is reaching oversold levels, and we could expect a technical bounce above the 200 EMA.

If it consolidates above $2,282 in the coming hours, we could expect a recovery in cryptocurrency, potentially reaching the 21 SMA around $2,344 or the upper band of the bearish trend channel around $2,340.

ETH could continue its rise in the coming hours, so we will look for opportunities to open long positions as long as the price consolidates above $2,280, with targets at $2,344 and even $2,375.

Conversely, with a drop below the 200 EMA, the price could reach the 2/8 Murray level around $2,250; if this level is broken, Ethereum could experience a strong bearish sequence until reaching the 1/8 Murray zone around $2,125.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal. Still, the price could find strong support around the $2,250 zone, so we expect this area to provide an opportunity to open long positions in the coming days.

Bitcoin is trading around $79,737, rebounding after hitting the lower band of the downtrend channel formed since May 6, and we could expect a recovery until it reaches the 21-day SMA at $80,942.

Bitcoin has begun a new bearish sequence and is now consolidating below the 21 SMA and below the 6/8 Murray level, both of which are exerting strong downward pressure. However, we could expect a recovery in the coming hours as oversold conditions exist.

Above $79,000, we could look to open long positions with targets at $80,942 or at the 6/8 Murray line around $81,250.

If bearish momentum prevails, we could expect Bitcoin to continue falling until it reaches the strong support level it has tested since early May around $78,125. This zone could provide a strong support level for Bitcoin, and we could look for buying opportunities above it.

If Bitcoin attempts to break above $81,250 again and fails to consolidate above this zone, it could be seen as a clear signal to open short positions with a target at $78,125. In the short term, the instrument could reach the 200 EMA around $75,957 and eventually around $75,000.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal; however, a brief recovery is expected in the coming hours before the price resumes its bearish cycle.

Crude oil is trading around $92.94, rebounding after forming a double bottom pattern near the strong 7/8 Murray support level around $87.50.

Crude oil has strong upside potential until it reaches the psychological level of $100. We hold this bullish outlook because the price left a gap around $99.50, so we will continue buying in the coming days until this gap is filled.

Given that crude oil is in a strong resistance zone around the 200 EMA level, which could put temporary pressure on the price, we could still expect a strong recovery if the price consolidates above $93.10.

If the price falls below the 200 EMA, we could look for opportunities to open short positions, with targets at $90 and a potential return to $87.50.

However, our outlook is positive, and we expect a correction toward the 32.8% Fibonacci level or the 61.8% level around $90. Then, we could buy with targets at the 21 SMA located at the $95.33 level, which coincides with the upper band of the downtrend channel.

If crude oil decisively breaks out of the downtrend channel and consolidates above the 21 SMA around $95.33, this could be seen as a positive signal to buy, with targets at the 8/8 Murray level around the psychological $100 mark.

Gold is trading around $4,715, above the 7/8 Murray line, and has been consolidating above this level since May 6, which gives us a positive outlook for the coming days if the price consolidates above the 200 EMA around $4,709.

During Friday's US session, key US employment data will be released. This could impact gold's current slight consolidation, and we could see a strong upward move toward the $4,823 zone—where strong weekly resistance is located—or a sharp decline toward the 21 SMA around $4,654.

According to the H4 chart, gold is within an uptrend channel, and we could look for buying opportunities in the coming hours if the price consolidates above $4,700. In that case, our target could be this week's high around $4,765, and ultimately, we could expect it to reach $4,823.

We must monitor the $4,709 area. If the price falls below this level and consolidates below the 7/8 Murray line around $4,687, a sharp technical reversal could occur, and gold could reach the 21 SMA around $4,654 and even retreat toward the $4,500 level.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels, so we should exercise caution. If an upward move occurs in the coming hours and gold reaches strong resistance levels, we could consider opening short positions, as a sharp technical correction may take place.

It is becoming increasingly clear that a split is widening inside the Federal Reserve System. Boston Fed President Susan Collins openly backed colleagues who last week voiced disagreement with the FOMC statement that implied the central bank's next step would be rate cuts.

She said that they should not pretend they knew where they were going, added that she fully supported the decision to leave rates unchanged but would have reworded the statement, and stressed that it should not be so tightly linked to the assumption that the next step would be a rate cut.

Collins prefers a more restrictive approach to the future policy path. In her view, the energy shock from the Middle East conflict pushes back the date at which the 2% inflation target will be achieved. She said that rates would likely remain unchanged for a long time, but that, if necessary, the Fed might have to consider hikes.

As I mentioned above, Collins joined three other regional Fed presidents who formally expressed dissent at the 29 April meeting against the bias toward easing. They include Lori Logan (Dallas Fed), Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed). Hammack said in a Thursday interview that the FOMC statement is somewhat misleading, given current economic conditions.

Collins has no vote on the FOMC this year, but her public stance is a symptom of a broader shift. An increasing number of officials want the Fed to make clear that the next step could be either a cut or a hike.

This internal dynamic creates serious challenges for Kevin Warsh — President Trump's nominee for Fed chair. He must be confirmed by the Senate in the coming weeks, and the first meeting under his chairmanship is scheduled for 16–17 June. However, it is obvious he will inherit a Fed that is clearly not positioned to cut rates in the near term.

Inflation remains the Fed's main headache: 3.5% versus the 2% target, and the energy shock will only make the situation worse.

Technical picture, EUR/USD

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers should now consider how to take the 1.1755 level. Only this will allow a test of 1.1795. From there, a move to 1.1825 would be possible, but achieving that without support from major players will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1850. In the event of a decline only to around 1.1725, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If there is nobody there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1700 or to open long positions from 1.1675.

Technical picture, GBP/USD

As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3600. Only this will allow a target of 1.3655, above which a break will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3685 area. In the event of a fall, bears will try to seize control at 1.3570. If they succeed, a break of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3520, with the prospect of reaching 1.3500.

The measure responds to South Korea's sizable share of global crypto trading volume, estimated at around 30%. Notably, most transactions in the country involve altcoins — 85% — rather than the larger cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum. Managing this growing, dynamic market has become a priority for the country's financial regulators.

The statement says the expanded Ministry of Finance oversight is aimed at preventing illicit activity such as money money laundering and tax evasion and at ensuring financial stability. Tougher transparency and accountability requirements for international crypto transfers are intended to minimize the risks associated with cross-border movements of digital assets.

Crypto exchanges and custodial services conducting international operations will have to meet new standards, which will likely include enhanced KYC/AML procedures and stricter reporting to regulators.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $80,100, which opens a direct route to $81,700, and from there to $83,600. The most distant target is the high around $85,600; breaching that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $72,200. A fall below that area could quickly push BTC toward $76,300. The furthest target there would be around $74,700.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,290 opens a direct route to $2,328. The most distant target is the high near $2,387; breaching that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,225. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,162. The furthest target there would be around $2,114.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

The price test at 1.3585 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test triggered scenario No. 2 for selling, continuing yesterday's bearish market, but no major decline followed.

Next, very important figures are expected that will determine not only Federal Reserve policy but also reflect the resilience of the economy. Economists generally agree that the U.S. labor market in April will remain stable. The forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is around 67,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, according to consensus expectations, should remain steady at 4.3%. These data will be a key indicator for the Federal Reserve in assessing economic stability and adjusting monetary policy further. Strong figures could delay expectations for the first rate cuts.

Equally important for the Fed will be wage growth. The rate of increase in average hourly earnings will be closely monitored for signs of rising inflationary pressure. Sustained income growth, on one hand, supports consumer spending, but on the other, may complicate the fight against inflation, forcing the regulator to maintain a restrictive stance, which is supportive for the dollar.

At the same time, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will be released. Any upside surprise in inflation expectations will be viewed very negatively and could trigger a rise in the U.S. dollar against risk assets, including the pound.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound if the entry point at around 1.3625 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 1.3661 (thicker green line). Around 1.3661, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). Pound growth today is only expected after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3607 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 1.3625 and 1.3661 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3607 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 1.3573, where I will exit shorts and open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure is expected to return today with strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3625 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3607 and 1.3573 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to monitor overbought and oversold zones

Important note: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1748 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test triggered scenario No. 2 for selling, continuing yesterday's bearish market, but no significant decline followed.

Next, key statistical data will be released that will directly affect the U.S. dollar. This refers to the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the U.S. unemployment rate for April. Labor market indicators are fundamental for assessing the health of the economy. Strong readings, indicating job creation and low unemployment, may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high to curb inflationary pressure, which would strengthen the dollar. Otherwise, growth in EUR/USD may resume with renewed strength.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I will consider buying the euro if the price reaches the 1.1780 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1815. At 1.1815, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. Growth in the euro today is only possible after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1765 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 1.1780 and 1.1815 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1765 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1731, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure will return today if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1780 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1765 and 1.1731 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important note: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Important data is expected next, which will determine the Federal Reserve's policy stance and its approach to interest rates. This includes U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data for April and the unemployment rate. Strong data could signal sustained growth for a second consecutive month, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy to combat inflation. Weak figures, on the contrary, may strengthen discussions about possible policy easing.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is also being released, reflecting household confidence in the economy. Its component measuring medium-term inflation expectations is particularly important for the Federal Reserve. The central bank closely monitors this indicator, as entrenched high inflation expectations may make it harder to return inflation to the 2% target. Rising expectations are often seen as a signal for maintaining or tightening policy.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.1780 – potential rise to 1.1804 and 1.1825
• Sell breakout below 1.1760 – potential decline to 1.1726 and 1.1701

GBP/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.3630 – potential rise to 1.3655 and 1.3700
• Sell breakout below 1.3599 – potential decline to 1.3574 and 1.3547

USD/JPY

• Buy breakout above 156.73 – potential rise to 156.99 and 157.25
• Sell breakout below 156.45 – potential decline to 156.06 and 155.75

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Sell after a false breakout above 1.1790 and a return below this level
• Buy after a false breakout below 1.1745 and a return above this level

GBP/USD

• Sell after a false breakout above 1.3646 and a return below this level
• Buy after a false breakout below 1.3580 and a return above this level

AUD/USD

• Sell after a false breakout above 0.7253 and a return below this level
• Buy after a false breakout below 0.7223 and a return above this level

USD/CAD

• Sell after a false breakout above 1.3658 and a return below this level
• Buy after a false breakout below 1.3635 and a return above this level

The EUR/CAD pair continues to rise confidently for the third consecutive day, trading near the 100-day SMA. This pair is showing steady upward momentum, as the euro maintains its strength against major rival currencies despite weaker activity in Germany's industrial sector in March.

According to data published Friday by Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), industrial production in the country, adjusted for seasonal factors, declined by 0.7% month-over-month. This result was worse than analysts' expectations for a 0.5% increase and followed a revised 0.5% decline in February. On an annual basis, industrial production fell by 2.8%, following a revised 0.2% decrease in February.

The euro is receiving support from hawkish comments by European Central Bank officials. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday that the central bank is considering the possibility of raising interest rates as early as next month, while warning that households and businesses are beginning to express concern about the sharp rise in global energy prices. Another ECB Governing Council member, Piero Cipollone, emphasized on Wednesday that the likelihood of a rate hike has increased due to persistent inflationary pressures, despite the absence of data showing stronger wage demands from workers.

The EUR/CAD pair may continue its upward trend, as the commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar could weaken further amid declining oil prices. Canada is the largest exporter of crude oil to the United States, making its currency particularly sensitive to developments in the oil market.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are retreating after posting moderate gains yesterday.

The decline in oil prices comes amid easing tensions between the United States and Iran, reducing concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Last week, oil prices climbed following another escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran. On Thursday, the U.S. military reported retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, focusing on sites allegedly linked to attacks on American forces.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly into positive territory, indicating that bulls are beginning to gain strength. However, they will need to overcome at least the 100-day SMA to have a chance of reaching the 200-day SMA. Only after breaking above that level can it be said that the pair has regained the potential to restore its broader long-term uptrend.

The wave structure on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The latest completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points, while the new downward wave broke below the previous low. Thus, the trend has once again shifted to bullish, although it remains highly unstable, as all recent waves have been roughly equal in size. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. supported the bulls, but now, three weeks later, it can be said that geopolitical developments are moving toward prolonging the conflict. Therefore, bullish attacks may remain limited or stop entirely.

On Thursday, the news background was extremely weak, so traders remained mostly inactive throughout the day. By evening, strange and unexplained explosions occurred in Iran, while Donald Trump once again toughened his rhetoric toward Tehran. No information has yet been provided regarding the causes or sources of the explosions. Trump stated that the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. remains in force, but at the same time emphasized that America is prepared to resume strikes against Iran if it does not sign an agreement.

"Iran is run by crazy people. If they had the opportunity to use nuclear weapons, they would have done it long ago. But they will never have that opportunity. We will destroy them if they do not sign an agreement," Donald Trump wrote on social media.

Thus, the entire situation once again resembles an attempt to pressure Iran into accepting a deal on U.S. terms. Traders do not possess complete information regarding the negotiations, making it extremely difficult to draw confident conclusions. However, at this point, even a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding has not yet been agreed upon or signed. The conflict is dragging on, and so are the negotiations. The longer this continues, the greater the likelihood of renewed conflict.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and began declining toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1617. A rebound from the 1.1778 level once again supports expectations for further downside movement. In my view, the hourly chart is currently more informative due to weak overall price action. Bulls seized the initiative in the market about a month ago but are now searching for new growth drivers. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 316 long positions and opened 5,296 short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' total advantage disappeared, while over the last five weeks the situation has become somewhat more balanced. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, while short positions amount to 181,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, in the long term, major market participants continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Naturally, various global events — which have been abundant in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than ended. Therefore, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Industrial Production Change (06:00 UTC)
• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (07:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings Change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

The May 8 economic calendar contains six entries, with all U.S. releases considered important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment could be strong during the second half of Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities may be considered today if the pair consolidates below the 1.1745 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1666. Buying positions may be considered if the pair consolidates above the 1.1745 level, with a target at 1.1824.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.2082–1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Geopolitical factors gave bears almost complete control of the market for two months, but the geopolitical backdrop has since shifted and now largely supports the bulls. At present, the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. remains in place, although the situation is moving toward further escalation and prolonged confrontation. It will be difficult for bulls to launch strong attacks in the coming weeks, but there are currently no clear reasons for a retreat either.

On Thursday, the news background once again intensified pressure on the dollar. Donald Trump again threatened Iran with renewed missile strikes and attacks if an agreement is not signed in the near future. In addition, important U.S. reports on Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released today, and over the past year these reports have more often disappointed than encouraged investors. In March, nearly 180,000 jobs were created, but it should be noted that this was almost an isolated case of such a strong reading. One month earlier, the figure stood at -133,000. The unemployment rate has declined in recent months from 4.5% to 4.3%, but over the past three years it has risen from 3.4% to 4.3%. The increase is not dramatic, but unemployment is still rising, while far fewer jobs are being created compared to several years ago. Thus, every labor market report represents a potential risk for the dollar. The market is no longer rushing blindly into the U.S. dollar because of the conflict in the Middle East. In my view, bullish traders remain in a much more confident position than the bears.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, which allows expectations for the formation of a full-fledged bullish trend. Consolidation above the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.3540 supports the possibility of continued growth toward the corrective level of 23.6% at 1.3664. The technical picture on the hourly chart is currently more informative, and I recommend focusing more closely on it. No emerging divergences are currently observed.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,509, while the number of short positions increased by 5,091. The gap between long and short positions now effectively stands at 59,000 versus 120,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have actively increased selling positions and reduced buying positions, resulting in a strong imbalance between longs and shorts. Bears have dominated in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but everything now depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full ceasefire remains far away, and the conflict could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could become even stronger.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings Change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On May 8, the economic calendar contains four entries, at least two of which are highly important. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Friday could be significant during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities may arise today if the pair rebounds again from the 1.3596–1.3620 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539. Buying opportunities may emerge if the pair rebounds from the 1.3513–1.3539 level, targeting 1.3596–1.3620. Long positions may also be considered if the pair closes above the 1.3611–1.3620 level, with a target at 1.3700.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

The EUR/USD pair is posting a slight positive move, pausing the moderate decline seen yesterday. Nevertheless, the current rise does not reflect strong bullish activity: uncertainty surrounding a possible peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is supporting the U.S. dollar and limiting further gains in spot prices, while traders closely await the release of key U.S. labor market data.

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report could significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potentially boost demand for the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, growing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are slowing the recent optimism surrounding de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, reinforcing the dollar's status as a reserve currency and preventing EUR/USD bulls from opening new long positions.

The upward movement observed over the past two weeks has remained limited; however, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), confirming that the overall market tone remains constructive, provided the bullish market structure stays intact. Oscillators remain in positive territory, confirming that bulls still hold the advantage. However, the flat slope of the 200-day SMA indicates a sideways trend.

Further upward momentum is likely to encounter initial resistance near the psychologically important 1.1800 level. A confident breakout above this level would open the way for a stronger bullish move.

If the pair starts to decline, the nearest support will be located at the 20-day SMA around 1.1730, followed by the 100-day SMA and the round 1.1700 level. Below that, the 200-day SMA at 1.1670 will become the next key demand zone and increase the risk of a transition into a deeper corrective phase.

Today, Friday, gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining upward momentum and trading near its highest level in more than two weeks, recorded the previous day. Despite renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, market participants appear to be counting on a possible peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. This has triggered another decline in oil prices, easing inflation risks and reducing expectations of tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. As a result, this environment is limiting the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and acting as one of the key factors supporting gold prices.

On Thursday, U.S. Central Command reported strikes on Iranian military facilities allegedly involved in attacks on ships passing through the strategically important strait. Earlier, Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by carrying out strikes on several targets in the strait region. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized that the ceasefire with Iran remains in effect, adding that any termination of it would be obvious. Additionally, the U.S. stated that it has no intention of further escalation, which weakened the U.S. dollar and contributed to the rise in gold prices. Meanwhile, recent developments have prevented oil prices from fully maintaining Thursday's intraday gains, although downside pressure remains limited due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Moreover, Trump warned that the U.S. could launch much larger and harsher strikes if Iran does not agree to sign a deal in the near future. At the same time, resilient economic growth and inflation risks are forcing investors to push back expectations for Fed rate cuts to late 2027 or early 2028. This, in turn, could limit further weakening of the U.S. dollar and restrain gold's upward potential, especially ahead of the release of U.S. labor market data.

The key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be released later during the North American session; economists expect the economy to have added around 62,000 jobs in April. This would mark a significant slowdown compared to March's figure of 178,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 3.8% year-over-year. These indicators will continue shaping expectations regarding the Fed's future actions, which in turn will influence the U.S. dollar's dynamics and set a new direction for gold prices.

From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair maintains a bullish bias, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory on the daily chart.

At the same time, prices are attempting to hold above the 20-day SMA, which is located near the round $4,700 level. The next target will be the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs ahead of the round $4,800 level.

However, if prices fall below the 20-day SMA, support could emerge at the 9-day EMA, followed by the round $4,600 level, though this would strengthen bearish momentum.

Investors quickly tired of geopolitics and piled into technology stocks. Alphabet is especially popular — its market cap is now approaching that of market leader NVIDIA.

Market capitalizations of the world's largest companies

JP Morgan argues that, besides attractive fundamentals and blockbuster profits, another structural factor is fueling broad tech buying: share buybacks. Repurchase activity now exceeds last year's levels, which is a bullish impulse for equities.

The S&P 500's retreat from record highs was triggered by a resumption of hostilities. Iran retaliated against the US after a tanker was not allowed to leave the Strait of Hormuz. Washington responded with strikes on the sites that launched the rockets. Investors got nervous, although the White House did not classify the incident as a ceasefire violation. US President Donald Trump called Tehran's action a joke and said Washington quickly put it in its place.

Share?buyback activity by tech companies

The administration's reluctance to acknowledge an obvious ceasefire breach by Iran suggests the peak of combat may already be behind us. The conflict is likely to be resolved diplomatically, though flare?ups of geopolitical tension remain possible — all else equal, good for risk assets and the S&P 500.

The S&P's rapid rally pushed Bloomberg's model into so?called "manic" territory: high?yield corporate spreads, volatility, and pairwise correlations are flashing warning signs. That, by itself, does not mean that the S&P 500 must enter a correction. Historically, when similar signals appeared (2012–2023), the S&P tended to outperform the small?cap Russell 2000.

The pullback from record highs may simply reflect profit?taking ahead of the April US nonfarm payrolls release. Ironically, weak payrolls could be bullish for the broad index — they would raise the odds of a Fed rate cut in 2026.

Technically, the daily chart shows a retreat from record highs, but the overall bias remains bullish. As long as the S&P 500 trades above fair value at $7,135, the tactical emphasis should remain on buying pullbacks.

The price of Brent crude oil increased by 2.9% to $103 per barrel before slightly declining, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil approached $96. The rise occurred after American troops struck military targets in Iran. President Donald Trump stated that three US warships, which were attacked by Iran, successfully departed the waterway without sustaining damage. Regarding Iran, he added, "In the future, we will deliver a much stronger and harsher blow if they do not sign a deal."

The oil market's attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the beginning of the war in late February. This has led to an unprecedented supply shock: oil flows are cut off, and wells across the region are halted. The waterway is under a dual blockade: Tehran is blocking ship movements, while the US prohibits vessels from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

All of this suggests that oil is trading between two risks: diplomacy on one side and escalation of conflict on the other. The markets are still giving the peace proposal a chance, but not enough to lower the risk premium.

Recent clashes have heightened tensions in the region as the US seeks to exit a war that is increasingly burdening consumers due to sharp increases in retail prices for gasoline and diesel. This week, the Trump administration sent another proposal to Tehran regarding the resumption of trade routes, but Iranian leaders have not indicated whether they will accept these terms.

Today, the United Arab Emirates announced that its air defense systems intercepted missiles and drones launched from Iranian territory. It seems that the attacks began after the UAE permitted Americans to use their military bases.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow targeting $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The farthest target will be around $113.80. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control over $92.50. If this is achieved, breaking the range will deal a significant blow to bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $86.67, with the potential to reach $81.38.

Today's revival of buying demand appears linked to ongoing purchases by the People's Bank of China. These actions by the Chinese central bank, aimed at increasing gold reserves, are traditionally viewed as a signal of increased participation by smart money in the market.

Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend of a strengthening dollar and expectations of rising US interest rates, which previously pressured gold prices, are beginning to give way to other, more significant factors. These primarily include reduced geopolitical risks and expectations of a peace agreement between Iran and the US.

Currently, the price of gold is approaching the $4,720 per ounce mark, maintaining bullish prospects.

It should be noted that the price of gold has fallen by about 11% since the start of the conflict, as the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent shock in energy prices heightened concerns about rising inflation, which could lead to higher interest rates for an extended period. Rate hikes and a strengthening US dollar negatively affect gold prices since it does not yield interest and is priced in US dollars.

Today, traders will be watching changes in US employment data, expected to be released in the second half of the day. This will provide insight into the trajectory of near-term interest rate changes. Some Federal Reserve officials downplayed the likelihood of a return to monetary easing, as suggested in the statement after last week's monetary policy meeting. If the US labor market data is strong, pressure on gold may return.

Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,771. This will allow targeting $4,835, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The farthest target will be around $4,893. In the event of a decline in gold prices, bears will aim to take control over $4,708. If this is achieved, breaking the range could deliver a significant blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,656 with the potential to reach $4,607.

In the final trading day of the week, global equity markets declined, while oil prices resumed their climb. The trigger was a renewed escalation between the United States and Iran, which cast doubt on recent hopes for a swift ceasefire. The MSCI All Country World Index, a barometer of global equities, fell by 0.3% amid clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.39%, up two basis points on the week.

Reports indicate that US forces retaliated against Iranian attacks on destroyers, prompting investor concern about the conflict's trajectory. A similar episode earlier this week did not escalate into a major confrontation, however.

Despite a 1.1% drop in Asian indices from record levels, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.2% today, suggesting some resilience in bullish sentiment.

Brent crude rose by 1% to roughly $101 per barrel. Traders worry that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil transits, would sustain supply disruption risks. Still, oil is down more than 6% on the week, reflecting the initial optimism around peace talks.

In an interview yesterday, US President Donald Trump again threatened Iran with "harsher" strikes in the future if the republic does not sign an agreement, while characterizing current military actions as a "love tap" and saying the ceasefire remains "in effect."

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have reportedly lifted restrictions on the use of US military bases on their soil, potentially allowing Washington to resume "Project Freedom" — the operation to escort vessels through the strait.

Support for the broader market continues to come from expectations of substantial investment into artificial intelligence. Even amid heightened geopolitical risk, investors remain focused on AI, hoping that easing geopolitical tensions will prevent a sustained rise in energy prices.

Gold rose modestly to around $4,710 per ounce.

From a technical perspective on the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,361. Doing so would confirm upside momentum and open the path to $7,381. Maintaining control above $7,404 would further strengthen bulls' position. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,339 area. A break below that level would quickly drive the index back to $7,319 and open the way toward $7,300.

All of this is occurring against the backdrop of escalating military conflict between the US and Iran, as well as capital outflows from spot ETFs. Yesterday, the US launched a series of strikes on Iranian military facilities near the ports of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm in response to attacks on American destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, which has increased pressure on digital assets.

Capital outflows from spot ETFs also play a significant role in the current decline. Traders and investors, fearing further price declines, have begun withdrawing funds, which, in turn, is exerting additional pressure on the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In the near term, the downward trend is likely to continue. Geopolitical uncertainty is unlikely to resolve overnight, and the outflow of funds from ETFs may continue to exert pressure. However, it is worth noting that the cryptocurrency market has its own internal dynamics. Stabilization of the geopolitical situation and the emergence of new positive catalysts in the form of positive cash flows will be required to halt the bear market.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continued development of a long-term bullish market, which has not disappeared.

Concerning short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $79,800, targeting a move to $80,500. At around $80,500, I intend to exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can be considered at the lower boundary of $79,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $79,800 and $80,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $79,400, targeting a decline to $78,500. At around $78,500, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can be considered at the upper boundary of $79,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $79,400 and $78,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,283, targeting a move to $2,306. At around $2,306, I intend to exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can be considered at the lower boundary of $2,267 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,283 and $2,306.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,267, targeting a decline to $2,241. At around $2,241, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can be considered at the upper boundary of $2,283 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,267 and $2,241.

The price test at 156.48 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 156.86.

The immediate increase in demand for the US currency followed a series of strikes carried out by the US on Iranian military facilities. This was a response to attacks on American destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz that accompanied an oil tanker. All of this exerted significant pressure on the yen, partially negating the Bank of Japan's recent currency interventions.

Weak data on Japan's services sector business activity index, which fell short of economists' forecasts, added further pressure on the yen, raising concerns about the pace of the economic recovery. This indicator, reflecting the sentiment and expectations of companies in one of Japan's key industries, declined, taking investors by surprise. The fall in the services sector index may signal potential issues with consumer demand due to high inflation. The decrease in the index may also reflect increased operational costs for companies related to rising prices for raw materials and energy, as well as possible difficulties in labor recruitment.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.95 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 157.35 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 157.35, I intend to exit my long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips from that level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.72 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposing levels of 156.95 and 157.35 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.72 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.35 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move from the level). Sellers could return at any moment, needing just a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.95 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposing levels of 156.72 and 156.35 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the price at 1.3615 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.3585.

The complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the main factor putting pressure on the British pound. The escalation of tensions in the region, following recent events in the Strait of Hormuz, has reignited concerns. In times of heightened risk, investors traditionally shift their focus to safer assets, and the US dollar, as one of the leading world reserve currencies, is at the top of that list. Against this backdrop, the British pound sterling is facing additional pressure.

Today, in the first half of the day, traders will focus on the UK as important macroeconomic reports are due. In particular, the Halifax house price index is expected to be published. This indicator traditionally reflects consumer confidence and the overall state of the economy, so any discrepancies from forecasts could significantly affect the British pound's exchange rate. In this context, the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be particularly important. Given the current economic situation and inflationary threats, market participants will carefully analyze every statement from the central bank's head. If Bailey takes a decisive stance on future monetary policy, it could be a strong catalyst for strengthening the pound. There is a high probability that his comments will focus on suppressing inflation, suggesting a possible rate hike this summer. Such a scenario typically has a positive impact on the national currency, enhancing its attractiveness.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3585 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3624 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3624, I intend to exit the market and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). A strong rise in the pound can only be expected after good news is released. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3563 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposing levels of 1.3585 and 1.3624 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3563 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3531 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pound may return if negative news arises from the Middle East. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of 1.3585 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposing levels of 1.3563 and 1.3531 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.