The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. There is still no question of invalidating the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January last year. On the contrary, we have seen a complete A-B-C corrective structure that has most likely ended. We never saw a convincing wave 5 within C. This wave took a truncated form, which also happens from time to time. Let me remind you that classical wave structures are generally found only in textbooks. In real-world trading, traders and analysts should be more flexible in their analysis. That is why I have been saying in my reviews for a month now that traders should prepare for a rise in the European currency. If the current wave count is correct, the instrument is at the very beginning of a new upward trend segment.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave downward structure with a truncated wave 5. I expected the European currency to decline to the 13th level, but the news backdrop turned against the dollar, and sellers simply lacked the strength to form a convincing wave 5. Therefore, it can be considered that the formation of a new upward wave sequence began on July 28.

The Treasury Implemented Its Version of QE and Weakened the Dollar

The EUR/USD rate was once again virtually unchanged on Friday, but this week the European currency has already gained around 120 points. Looking at the lower time frame, we can clearly see a steady and fairly strong upward movement. The European currency may not be gaining 60–100 points every day, but it is rising steadily. And that is the most important thing. Even today, the European currency could have gained further. Germany's Manufacturing PMI rose more than the market expected, reaching 54.1 points. The European Union's Manufacturing PMI also rose more than expected, reaching 52.8 points. The EU Services PMI also came in above forecasts at 51.7 points. Only Germany's Services PMI was somewhat disappointing. Three against one. Demand for the euro could therefore have increased today as well.

But, as already mentioned, the euro is performing very well this week even without the business activity indices. The U.S. Treasury has provided the main support for the euro, as has already been discussed at length. I would add that, broadly speaking, the U.S. Treasury has effectively planned to implement a QE (quantitative easing) program. More precisely, it plans to double its scale. Yes, the U.S. Treasury is not going to print money in exchange for its own bonds. But the underlying mechanism remains the same. The Treasury provides money to the market, while the market provides bonds to the Treasury. Market participants receive liquidity, while the Treasury reduces the yields on government bonds. Many economists consider this an inefficient method of debt management, but it is nevertheless a significant step that the market could not ignore.

Overall Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it has moved into a new upward wave sequence. In my view, now is an excellent time to build long positions. Unless the downward trend segment that began on January 28 develops into a more extended five-wave structure (which would require a strong news backdrop in favor of the dollar), EUR/USD is at the very beginning of a new, prolonged upward trend segment, with targets extending as high as the 25th level.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment can be seen, after which the formation of a corrective wave sequence began. The A-B-C structure is presumably complete. If this is the case, the formation of a new impulsive upward trend segment has begun.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a price movement. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward move, which began after two liquidity sweeps marked by red lines on the chart. Imbalance 17 held back the bulls' advance for a long time, but it has now been completely invalidated. Two new imbalances — 20 and 21 — were also formed this week. Both are bullish. Both may generate new buy signals in the future. Unfortunately, the price failed to form a signal before starting another upward move. Nevertheless, it can now be considered that the bearish impulse has ended and that the bulls will be the dominant force going forward.

In my view, the fundamental backdrop continues to fully support the bulls. First, it is clearly visible on any chart that the European currency began its advance from relatively low levels compared with its average price over the past year. Second, the market is no longer expecting FOMC monetary policy tightening in September. Third, the market has begun to doubt whether the Fed under Kevin Warsh will be capable of tightening monetary policy at all. Fourth, U.S. economic data have recently been disappointing across the board. Fifth, geopolitical factors no longer support the bears or the dollar. Sixth, the ECB may implement another round of monetary policy tightening this autumn. Seventh, the U.S. Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, reducing demand for the dollar. Thus, I see no reason for a bearish advance.

As I warned in recent weeks, if the labor market once again produces a weak result, this will be a sufficiently strong reason for the Fed to refrain from raising rates. Incidentally, the latest decline in the dollar began immediately after the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report. Initially, the decline was gradual, as if the market were uncertain about its direction. However, bullish pressure has increased with each passing day. Look closely at the chart: since July 28, the price has moved almost exclusively upward, with virtually no corrective pullbacks. The bears are currently extremely weak.

Let me remind you that expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy are always just expectations and can change in response to geopolitical developments or economic data. The market may anticipate easing or tightening and price these expectations in, as we saw between June 17 and 24. However, this does not mean that these expectations will materialize. The latest U.S. labor market data showed weak figures, inflation slowed, and GDP growth decelerated. These three factors have raised doubts about an FOMC rate hike not only in September but also in the foreseeable future. In my view, the bears' only chance now lies in a new escalation in the Middle East and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Donald Trump is not inclined toward escalation. He now wants to wear Iran down.

The current chart picture points to a highly probable continuation of the bullish impulse. Bearish imbalance 17 has been worked off, the reaction to it was weak, and this pattern is now invalidated. Bullish imbalance 19 remains unworked. The new bullish imbalance 20 also failed to provide traders with a buy signal. Another bullish imbalance 21 has formed. At present, the bulls have much stronger positions and prospects than the bears.

The economic backdrop once again supported the bulls on Friday. Today's data were not the most important, but three of the four business activity indices for Germany and the European Union, excluding the composite indices, came in above traders' expectations. Thus, the euro received some, albeit limited, support even on the final day of the week. And this week turned out to be a very successful one for the euro.

The bulls still have an enormous number of reasons to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I see no serious factors supporting the U.S. currency despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitical factors, which supported demand for the U.S. currency during most of the first half of 2026, can no longer do so. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, but there are currently no new hostilities from either Iran or the United States.

U.S. and EU economic calendar:

On August 24, the economic calendar contains no notable events. The economic backdrop will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend cannot be considered canceled or complete. Thus, the bulls may well continue their advance after two liquidity sweeps from clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have support in the form of imbalances 20 and 21. A new buy signal has not yet formed (unfortunately), but one may form next week. I see 1.1797 and 1.1850 as upward targets for the European currency.

GBP/USD continues to rise, which I consider entirely justified. Reports on the U.S. economy, labor market, and inflation have largely settled the debate over whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in September. Nonfarm Payrolls declined for the fourth consecutive month and fell below zero. The U.S. economy is slowing, while inflation is declining. The situation could change based on the August data, but at present, the FOMC is much closer to maintaining a wait-and-see stance than to making hawkish decisions. The U.S. Treasury's decision to increase the volume of Treasury buybacks must also now be taken into account. This is a clear signal to the market that the budget is under pressure and is no longer coping with the burden. Under Donald Trump, the national debt is growing rapidly, which does not increase investor and trader confidence in U.S. securities or the dollar.

Do bears have any prospects at present? In my view, no. In previous articles, I noted that the liquidity sweep of the July 15 high did not look convincing, while bullish imbalance 26 serves not only as an area of interest for bulls but also as a support zone. A new buy signal was formed this week, giving traders an opportunity to open new long positions, which are already showing a profit of around 100 points. Since June 24, the pound has generated three buy signals and has also provided an early warning of the upcoming markup phase (liquidity sweeps). The bears, meanwhile, currently have neither a pattern nor a signal. At this point, bears can only count on a corrective pullback, which could begin after liquidity is swept from the May 1 high.

As I have already noted, geopolitics is no longer having a favorable impact on the dollar, as negotiations between the United States and Iran have become completely deadlocked. Officially, Tehran is negotiating only with Oman. It remains unclear what these negotiations will lead to in terms of ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may be able to agree with Oman on terms for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but how would this resolve the conflict with the United States and lift the U.S. blockade of the strait?

This week, oil prices rose to $95 per barrel and, in my view, will return above $100 in the near future. If that happens, inflation in the United States or the United Kingdom will begin accelerating again. The Bank of England is prepared to tighten monetary policy, while the Fed's stance raises doubts about its readiness to adopt a hawkish decision. This is the key difference. The pound has an advantage over the dollar in terms of monetary policy.

The chart analysis shows a new bullish advance. At present, traders have three bullish imbalances (25, 26, and 27) where long positions can be considered. Naturally, the main focus should be on the latest and nearest imbalance to the current price, 27, which formed only yesterday. A liquidity sweep of the May 1 high could trigger a corrective pullback, and this pullback could extend below imbalance 27. Therefore, I recommend opening new long positions in imbalance 27 or imbalance 26 only after confirmed signals are formed, rather than simply when the price reaches the area of interest.

The economic news flow on Friday once again supported bullish traders, but by the end of the week they were clearly running out of momentum. The pound sterling has risen by 360 points over the past few weeks with virtually no interruption. Therefore, traders no longer had enough momentum to continue buying the pound even after relatively strong business activity indices for the UK services and manufacturing sectors. I am not even considering the U.S. business activity indices, as the market places greater emphasis on the ISM indices.

The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I see little reason to expect anything other than a decline in the U.S. currency. The war between Iran and the United States has changed nothing in this regard. The possibility of Fed rate hikes in 2026 has not changed this outlook either. Geopolitical developments prompted the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its active phase. The chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening have declined significantly in recent weeks, putting pressure on the U.S. currency. Thus, in my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I see no reason for a new bearish advance.

Economic Calendar for the US and UK:

The economic calendar for August 24 contains no notable events. The economic background is expected to have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings and the formation of a series of buy signals, the bulls continue to advance. I still see no basis for a bearish attack, as there are no bearish patterns or signals. The bulls received a buy signal from imbalance 24, which remains valid. Traders can already consider taking profit on this signal. A new buy signal was formed within imbalance 26. The current target for the pound is the January 27 high at 1.3867. A liquidity sweep of the May 1 swing could push the pound slightly lower, but it is unlikely to disrupt the bullish advance.

Strategy's reserve of 840,447 bitcoins, acquired at an average price of $75,385 per coin for a total of $63.36 billion, has returned to profitability for the first time since the spring of this year. At a price of around $77,000, the company's unrealized profit was approximately $1.4 billion, or about 2.4% of the position's value, and this figure increased further as the price continued to rise toward $79,000.

The scale of the reversal becomes clearer when compared with the recent past. When Bitcoin fell to $58,000 in July, Strategy's unrealized loss reached approximately $13 billion, equivalent to 20.4% of the total acquisition cost, while just a week ago the company was sitting on paper losses of around $10.6 billion. The pressure from these losses forced Saylor to break his long-standing principle of "never sell a single satoshi." Since spring, the company has sold part of its reserve five times, realizing a combined loss of more than $102 million and selling approximately 6,916 bitcoins to fund dividends on STRC preferred shares. The return of the price above the average acquisition cost puts all these painful decisions in a different light: the company sold the asset exclusively below the breakeven point, while it continues to hold its core position at a level where it is now generating a profit.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today when the entry point is reached around $78,700, with a target of $80,700. Around $80,700, I will close the long position and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $77,300 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level and the price returns toward $78,700 and $80,700.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today when the entry point is reached around $77,300, with a target of $74,300. Around $74,300, I will close the short position and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $72,300 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level and the price returns toward $71,500 and $70,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today when the entry point is reached around $2,409, with a target of $2,475. Around $2,475, I will close the long position and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary at $2,377 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level and the price returns toward $2,409 and $2,475.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today when the entry point is reached around $2,377, with a target of $2,310. Around $2,310, I will close the short position and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary at $2,409 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level and the price returns toward $2,377 and $2,310.

The price test of 158.78 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed the downward move.

In the second half of the day, the market is awaiting the August U.S. PMIs for manufacturing, services, and the composite index, similar to the data released earlier for the eurozone. These indicators reflect the state of business activity and directly affect expectations for the Fed's interest rate and, consequently, U.S. Treasury yields. For the yen, a stronger dollar creates a risk of further weakness, as it widens the divergence between the Fed's approach and the much more cautious stance of the Bank of Japan. This difference traditionally puts pressure on the Japanese currency. Strong data could push USD/JPY higher, while a weak result would allow the yen to recover some ground.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point is reached around 158.71 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 159.02 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.02, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level in the opposite direction. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the outlook is rather uncertain. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.46 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.71 and 159.02 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 158.46 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.07, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level in the opposite direction. Downward pressure on the pair will return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.71 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.46 and 158.07 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of 1.3655 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a long position in the pound. As a result, the pair rose by almost 20 points, offsetting the loss from the sale at 1.3638.

The August UK business activity report showed an acceleration in economic activity, but the main driver was the services sector rather than manufacturing. The Composite PMI rose to a four-month high of 52.5, while Services PMI jumped to 52.8, its highest level in six months. Since services account for the largest share of the UK economy, the sector's recovery was the main positive aspect of the report and supported the pound. Manufacturing, however, moved in the opposite direction, with both the Manufacturing PMI and output falling to five-month lows. This created a picture that was the opposite of the eurozone, where manufacturing accelerated while services remained unchanged.

In the second half of the day, the direction of the pound will be determined by U.S. economic data, as there are no significant domestic catalysts for the British currency. The focus will be on the August U.S. PMIs for manufacturing, services, and the composite index. Under these circumstances, the pound will become dependent on external factors. Strong U.S. data could help the dollar strengthen at the end of the week, potentially putting pressure on GBP/USD.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point is reached around 1.3670 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3701 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3701, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level in the opposite direction. Further gains in the pound as part of the current trend can be expected today only if the U.S. data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3652 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3670 and 1.3701 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3652 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3623, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level in the opposite direction. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return today if U.S. data are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3670 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3652 and 1.3623 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of 1.1705 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a long position in the euro. However, even following strong eurozone data, the euro failed to make a significant advance, indicating that the market is overbought.

Eurozone manufacturing posted its best performance in more than four years in August, with the Manufacturing PMI surging to 52.8 from 51.9, its highest level since May 2022, while the Output Index rose to 53.4, its highest level in 54 months. The Composite PMI increased to 52.1, a nine-month high, while Services PMI remained unchanged at 51.7. PMI indices are based on company surveys and reflect the state of business activity, with the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction. Therefore, such a strong increase confirmed an acceleration in the bloc's economy and supported the single currency. However, the key developments were not in the headline figures themselves but in the underlying improvements. New export orders increased for the first time in four and a half years, while the 38-month streak of declining manufacturing employment came to an end, as eurozone companies began hiring for the first time this year.

For the ECB, the conclusion was unexpectedly hawkish. With GDP growing steadily by around 0.3% in the third quarter, hiring recovering, and inflation still elevated, the hawkish bias is likely to persist, and further rate hikes in the near term cannot be ruled out. This is precisely what supported the euro, as the prospect of tighter monetary policy by the central bank favors the single currency.

The euro will spend the second half of the day awaiting the August U.S. PMIs for manufacturing, services, and the composite index. Business activity indices are leading indicators because they are among the first to capture changes in business sentiment, and their strength directly affects expectations for Fed policy. Given that the eurozone showed solid acceleration the previous day, the market will compare how resilient the U.S. economy looks against this backdrop.

The outlook for the single currency is cautious. Strong U.S. data could help the dollar strengthen at the end of the week, putting pressure on EUR/USD, while weak data would support the pair. However, some market participants may use a pullback in the single currency following strong U.S. data as an opportunity to initiate new long positions in risk assets, expecting the broader risk appetite to remain intact.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1719 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1751. At 1.1751, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today only if the U.S. data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1697 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1719 and 1.1751 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1697 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1665, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the U.S. data are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1719 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1697 and 1.1665 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The euro and the pound rose on strong PMI data. The eurozone Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.8, the Composite PMI rose to 52.1, while Services PMI came in at 51.7. The report noted that demand for artificial intelligence equipment, defense orders benefiting Germany, and tourism driving growth in services outside Germany and France made a significant contribution to the increase in the indicators. For the ECB, the conclusion was unexpectedly hawkish. With GDP growing steadily at around 0.3% in the third quarter, hiring recovering, and inflation still elevated, the hawkish bias is likely to persist, and further rate hikes in the near term cannot be ruled out. The euro reacted to this with another rise today.

The British economy also accelerated in August. The Composite PMI rose to 52.5 from 52.2, a four-month high, while Services PMI jumped to 52.8 from 52.1. Let me remind you that PMI indices are based on surveys of companies and reflect business activity, with the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction. Services are particularly important for the UK, as they account for the largest share of the economy. Manufacturing, meanwhile, weakened, with the Manufacturing PMI falling to 51.5.

In the second half of the day, the market is awaiting similar data from the United States, namely the August PMIs for manufacturing, services, and the composite index. The market will use these data to assess the resilience of the economy and adjust expectations for the Fed's interest rate. As in the eurozone, where business activity accelerated noticeably in August, strong U.S. data could help the dollar strengthen at the end of the week. For the euro and the pound, this means a risk of a pullback, as a stronger dollar would weigh on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Nevertheless, such declines in the pairs could be viewed as an opportunity to initiate new long positions in risk assets at more attractive levels if the fundamental outlook remains supportive.

If the data are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1710 could lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1745 and 1.165.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1685 could lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1660 and 1.1638.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3672 could lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3700 and 1.3725.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3645 could lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3620 and 1.3590.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 158.83 could lead to a rise in the dollar toward 159.13 and 159.39.
• Selling on a breakout below 158.28 could lead to a sell-off in the dollar toward 159.93 and 157.60.

Mean Reversion Strategy (return) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.1715, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.1690, followed by a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.3676, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.3643, followed by a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 0.7175, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 0.7152, followed by a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.3762, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.3733, followed by a return to this level.

An unexpectedly high-profile crypto summit at the White House was followed by a sharp rise in Ethereum, accompanied by a major purchase and staking activity. Bitcoin also staged a technical and price turnaround, breaking above $72,000 and forming a "golden cross" against the backdrop of measures announced by the US Treasury. Meanwhile, Europe rushed to buy LNG, sending gas prices to a five-month high amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of insufficient reserves. At the same time, Apple is preparing a major fall presentation featuring more than a dozen new devices, potentially setting the tone for the sales season and shaping technology expectations. Taken together, these very different developments are simultaneously affecting risk premiums, liquidity, and investor sentiment around the world.

Ethereum surges after White House crypto summit

Shortly before the high-profile crypto summit was held at the White House on August 19, an intriguing transaction surfaced on blockchain trackers. An unidentified wallet purchased 5,000 Ethereum tokens worth approximately $9.53 million and immediately staked the entire amount. The transaction took place just hours before the meeting, according to blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain.

Lookonchain drew attention to the transaction as early as August 17. The timing, coinciding with a major political event, appeared too conspicuous to traders and analysts to go unnoticed.

According to researchers, the same wallet, identified by the "0x8447" prefix, has now accumulated 10,657 ETH worth more than $20 million in total. The funds appear to have been withdrawn from the Kraken exchange and staked through Ethereum's Beacon Deposit Contract.

The August 19 summit brought together not only President Donald Trump, but also SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, and senior executives from several major crypto companies and financial platforms, including Coinbase, Ripple, Chainlink, a16z, Kalshi, Paradigm, Nasdaq, and CME. The meeting became a significant event for the market, and the reaction was swift.

Following the summit, Ethereum's price jumped by nearly 16%. Amid the rally, one major market participant generated more than $6 million in unrealized profit after opening a 4x leveraged position on the decentralized Hyperliquid platform at an entry price of $1,936, just hours before the rally began.

If you are interested in trading cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments, note that the instruments discussed in this article are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To trade, open an account with InstaForex and download the company's mobile app, allowing you to react quickly to market developments and manage positions from anywhere.

Golden cross and a new wave of optimism — Bitcoin back above $72,000

This is also the first time since November 2025 that the cryptocurrency has traded above its 200-day moving average. At that time, Bitcoin was trading near its all-time high of more than $126,000.

The "golden cross" signal emerged when the 50-day moving average stood at around $63,976 and crossed the 200-day average at approximately $69,005. Buying interest received an additional boost following an announcement by the US Treasury on Wednesday. The department doubled the minimum size of its buyback operations aimed at supporting liquidity in longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9. Since the announcement, Bitcoin has gained more than 13%.

Against this backdrop, it is worth recalling that the cryptocurrency had been trading below its 200-day moving average since October 2025, when its price was around $110,000. The six weeks preceding the rebound were challenging: BTC fell below $65,000, but managed to recover during this turbulent period and return to higher levels.

In short, the technical signal and regulatory actions have given Bitcoin a short-term boost, but investors should consider both fundamental risks and market volatility before making long-term decisions.

Europe rushes to buy LNG as gas prices hit a five-month high

Europe's gas market provided fresh cause for concern on Thursday as natural gas prices surged to a five-month high. The move came amid the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is severely restricting global LNG supplies and undermining hopes of replenishing inventories before the cold season begins.

Benchmark futures at the Dutch TTF hub rose 3.9% and surpassed €65 per megawatt-hour for the first time since March, Bloomberg reported. The rally was triggered by US President Donald Trump's statement that he intended to deliver what he called an "economic D-Day" to Iran. The remarks effectively dashed hopes of a swift resumption of shipping through the strategic strait.

The blockade has disrupted Qatari LNG supplies, forcing European utilities to compete aggressively for limited cargoes on the global market. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, cited by Reuters, underground gas storage facilities across the European Union were only 62% full on Thursday, compared with 74% at the same time last year.

The situation looks particularly acute in Germany. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, German underground storage facilities were slightly more than 50% full — roughly a quarter below last year's level and more than 45% below the levels recorded in 2023–2024. The German association of gas transmission system operators, FNB Gas, stated on Wednesday that the government's target of reaching 71% storage capacity by November 1 is now unattainable.

The resulting increase in prices is putting pressure on industrial consumers and utilities, raising economic risks for countries that rely on imported natural gas. At the same time, competition for LNG cargoes is intensifying, potentially prolonging the period of high volatility in the gas market until the situation in the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes.

Apple prepares a record-breaking fall — more than ten new products at one event

Apple is preparing for one of its largest September product launches in recent years. The presentation is scheduled for Wednesday, September 9, with invitations for the press and guests potentially being sent out as early as next week. The fall product season is about to begin, bringing new iPhones, wearable devices, and smart-home products.

At least ten new devices are expected to be unveiled at the event. Among the most notable are the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, as well as, potentially, Apple's first foldable iPhone, which some leaks have referred to as the iPhone Ultra. Smartwatches will also be in focus, including the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4.

Accessories are attracting attention as well. Reports have surfaced online about new AirPods equipped with infrared cameras, which are likely to be the AirPods Pro 4.

Apple is also preparing updates to its home product lineup. Four new Apple Home products are expected to launch as early as next month: an updated Apple TV 4K, HomePad, HomePod mini 2, and HomePod 3. The company appears to be placing a serious bet on the smart-home ecosystem.

If the reports prove accurate, the September presentation could become one of Apple's biggest product launches in recent years, with numerous new devices potentially setting the tone for the gadget market over the coming months.

For those who want to monitor market movements and investment opportunities related to the companies and products mentioned in this article, the relevant trading instruments are available on the InstaForex platform. To react quickly to news and trade from any device, open an InstaForex trading account and download the company's mobile app. Remember that trading financial markets involves risk.

Dynamics of US stock indices

The Dow Jones lost 1.3%, the Nasdaq fell 1%, and the S&P 500 retreated 0.9%. The main culprit was Walmart: its stock plunged 9.2% — the worst trading day in years — after the company reported US comparable?store sales growth of just 2.6%, the weakest in six years. Meanwhile Brent crude gained 3.4%, approaching $95/bl, after Donald Trump's threats to launch an "economic war" against Iran.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which is closely correlated with oil prices, again turned into a headwind for stocks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to calm markets by increasing buyback volumes — he said operations could exceed $4 billion per trade, double current levels. But the effect was temporary: Treasury yields returned to multi?year highs, and hyperscalers such as Nvidia, whose growth increasingly depends on debt?funded AI infrastructure, came under renewed pressure.

Downtrend of Nasdaq 100

A market of two moods

At the same time, the market feels like it's living a double life. Global fund managers, according to Bank of America, have 56% of portfolios in equities — the highest since November 2021. Bulls keep buying even though the same survey named the "disorderly rise in bond yields" the second-biggest risk after fears of an AI bubble. A quarter of respondents fear a new wave of inflation. Classic FOMO — fear of missing out — is still outweighing caution.

UBS sees it optimistically: 35–40% corporate profit growth could push the S&P 500 to new highs, with a target around 8,100. Still, the bank warns the picture will be murkier after 2027, and corporate margins could come under pressure. Today, analysts' words are cheaper than usual — the market lives in an escalation/ de-escalation mode where any forecast can be wiped out by a single line in a yields report.

So, the market is balancing between euphoria over profit forecasts and the rising cost of borrowing. The dollar is weakening, oil is rising, yields are climbing — three forces pulling equities in different directions at once.

Will the S&P 500 bull market withstand this strain, or will yields ultimately prevail? I doubt we'll have an answer before earnings season ends.

Technically, on the daily chart, bears have reclaimed fair value. The first of the two previously indicated bearish targets — 7,666 and 7,610 — has already been hit; the second is on its way.

Today, on Friday, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is attracting fresh selling interest.

Traders have scaled back their expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve's rate hike following the release of weak US inflation data last week, which is viewed as a negative factor for the US dollar. At the same time, the market's initial reaction to the US Treasury's announcement of increased volumes for certain buyback operations involving longer-term debt securities quickly faded amid inflation risks associated with rising energy prices.

Indeed, oil prices reached a new three-week high on Thursday after President Donald Trump announced the launch of what he described as the most devastating economic operation against Iran.

He also threatened tough sanctions against any country that helps Iran circumvent sanctions or does business with Tehran. This creates a geopolitical risk premium that could discourage traders from taking aggressive bearish positions against the US dollar.

In addition, CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that investors still assess the probability of the US central bank raising interest rates at least once by the end of the current year at approximately 68%. This provides a supportive backdrop for higher US Treasury yields and should help limit further losses in the DXY. Therefore, it may be prudent to wait for further selling before taking a position on additional US dollar depreciation.

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index continues to lose ground, trading at levels last seen in mid-May. The oscillators are in negative territory, confirming the bears' advantage in the market. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, warning of a potential consolidation.

Support is provided by the 98.50 level, below which the index could accelerate its decline toward the psychological 98.00 level. Resistance is seen at 98.90 and 99.00, with the 200-day SMA located above these levels. A break above the 200-day SMA would give the bulls a chance to extend the recovery.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against major currencies for the current week. The US dollar has shown the greatest strength against the Japanese yen.

Today, Friday, gold (XAU/USD) continues to rise steadily, breaking above the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the $4,550 level, thereby reaching a new high since early June. Traders have scaled back expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike after new U.S. inflation data released last week signaled easing price pressures. This is keeping the U.S. dollar near low levels, close to the three-month low recorded on Thursday, providing important support for gold as a non-yielding asset.

Nevertheless, investors remain concerned about inflationary risks associated with rising oil prices, exacerbated by the confrontation between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi group reported attacks on eight oil tankers since the maritime blockade of Saudi vessels was introduced in late July, increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict and pushing oil prices to a three-week high. This factor largely overshadows the U.S. Treasury's plans to double the volume of certain long-term bond buyback operations and is supporting elevated yields on U.S. debt instruments.In addition, the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday from the July 28–29 meeting showed that Fed officials emphasized the need for a rate hike if further progress in reducing inflation is not achieved.

CME Group's FedWatch Tool also confirms that investors are pricing in an approximately 68% probability of at least one rate hike by the U.S. central bank by the end of the year. This, together with continued geopolitical uncertainty, may help limit a deeper decline in the dollar and discourage bulls from opening positions in favor of further gains in the precious metal.

In the latest developments related to the Middle East crisis, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would launch the "most devastating economic operation" against Iran, threatening strict sanctions against any country that helps Tehran circumvent existing measures or conducts business with it. Vice President JD Vance added that economic pressure is the most effective means of confronting Iran. This creates a geopolitical risk premium and confirms the potential for increased demand for the U.S. dollar at lower levels, which, in turn, may limit further gains in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD appears to have consolidated firmly above the 200-day moving average, and the bulls are now looking for a breakout above $4,600. The oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to overbought territory, warning of possible consolidation or a pullback. Support is found at $4,535 and $4,500, where the 200-day SMA is located. A decline below this level would weaken the bulls' position. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Today, Friday, the EUR/USD pair is attracting buyers on declines, moving toward its highest level since May 14, which was reached the previous day. The bulls are once again seeking to break above 1.1700 before making further investments. Despite this, current spot prices continue to show solid weekly gains and maintain the uptrend that began at the start of the month amid broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, remains near a three-month low as traders scale back expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike amid slowing inflation. In addition, expectations that inflation driven by rising energy prices will prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a tighter monetary policy are supporting the single currency and the EUR/USD pair.According to Commerzbank, the increasingly tight balance of European gas storage levels "increases pressure on imports, thereby raising price risks." The bank also warns that if gas inflows do not recover sufficiently, this will further increase electricity prices in Europe, as the region will be forced to compete even more aggressively for scarce LNG supplies.

Meanwhile, the market's reaction to the U.S. Treasury's initiative to increase the volume of certain long-term bond buyback operations appears to be weakening amid inflation concerns related to rising energy prices. In addition, the hawkish FOMC minutes released on Wednesday support the possibility of at least one rate hike in 2026 and contribute to elevated U.S. Treasury yields, which supports the U.S. dollar.

Additionally, tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz continue to create a geopolitical risk premium and limit declines in safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened Iran with economic warfare and broad isolation, warning of consequences for any country willing to provide assistance to Tehran.

This may limit the actions of bears in the market seeking to weaken the dollar and may also limit the upward potential of EUR/USD.

Today, to identify the best trading opportunities, it is worth waiting for the release of the preliminary U.S. PMI indicators. Moreover, expected geopolitical developments may continue to influence global financial markets, once again increasing demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset and creating short-term trading opportunities for EUR/USD on the final trading day of the week.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is rising and trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This indicates that potential pullbacks are likely to attract buyers, while the broader recovery from the June lows remains intact. The oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, indicating the possibility of bullish consolidation or a pullback.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. Geopolitical developments remain consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. However, the FOMC's stance is currently more important for the dollar, and it remains highly contradictory.

There was virtually no fundamental background on Thursday, but traders did not lack factors to trade. The market has not yet fully recovered from Wednesday's "information bomb," when the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in purchases of its own bonds, which is somewhat analogous to the QE programs usually conducted by the Fed when economic growth needs to be stimulated. Every coin has two sides. The U.S. economy may grow faster, while the burden on the budget may decrease. However, the broader economic situation in the United States is unlikely to change. Structural problems are emerging, and resolving them will take years. And that is only if the government addresses the problems it created itself. However, Donald Trump is currently more focused on the confrontation with Iran and intends to secure support from other countries. The U.S. president intends to unite the international community against Iran by imposing sanctions on any country that supports Tehran in its conflict with the United States. Any such action may be considered support: purchasing Iranian oil, providing services to Iranian companies, and so on.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to advance and has consolidated above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1649. Thus, the euro's advance may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1726. The upward trend channel indicates a full-fledged bullish advance. From now on, a strengthening of the U.S. currency can be expected only after the price closes below the channel. No emerging divergences are observed today, but the RSI indicator has entered overbought territory (above 80).

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,661 Long positions and 2,742 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while over the past twenty weeks, the situation has leveled out amid the supposed truce and market hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 197,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 257,000. The bears are once again taking the lead.

Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show greater interest in the euro. Naturally, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war ends and then resumes again. The market initially ignored the truce and then ignored the resumption of the war. Thus, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

Economic Calendar for the US and European Union:

• Germany – Services PMI (07:30 UTC).
• Germany – Manufacturing PMI (07:30 UTC).
• European Union – Services PMI (08:00 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC).
• US – Services PMI (13:45 UTC).
• US – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC).

The economic calendar for August 21 contains six entries, none of which I would consider important, especially in light of recent events. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Friday will be limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Buying the pair was possible after consolidation above 1.1620 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1700. A close above 1.1700 would allow traders to keep positions open with a target of 1.1786. Selling the pair is possible today if it rebounds from 1.1700 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.

The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave (which is not yet complete) broke the previous peak. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage is strengthening with each passing day. The bullish trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is broken, i.e., below 1.3414, or after two downward waves are formed.

There was no fundamental background in the UK or the US on Thursday, but traders have not experienced a lack of news overall this week. Dollar selling has continued after the U.S. Treasury decided to increase bond buybacks in order to lower their yields and reduce the debt burden on the budget, and this decision quite predictably triggered widespread dollar selling. The market also continues to reduce its exposure to the U.S. currency amid a lower probability of FOMC monetary policy tightening. None of the other reports or factors this week has affected the market's bearish sentiment toward the dollar. For example, the FOMC minutes could, if desired, be described as hawkish, but no one believed that the regulator's hawkish stance is still in place. The UK unemployment and inflation reports could also, if desired, have been interpreted in favor of the dollar, but the market chose to ignore them. This morning, the UK retail sales report was released, and the market also failed to pay much attention to it.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3467–1.3482 support level and rose to the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3657. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3538. Consolidation above 1.3657 would increase the chances of further gains for the pound. No new emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 10,256, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,663. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is effectively 65,000 versus 121,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears' advantage nevertheless remains substantial. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but now it is, as the fundamental background has changed.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near future, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.

Economic Calendar for the US and UK:

• UK – Change in Retail Sales (06:00 UTC).
• European Union – Services PMI (08:00 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC).
• UK – Services PMI (08:30 UTC).
• UK – Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC).
• US – Services PMI (13:45 UTC).
• US – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC).

The economic calendar for August 21 contains seven entries, but these releases are not the most important under the current circumstances. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Friday may be limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if it rebounds from the 1.3633–1.3641 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3556. Buying was possible on a rebound from 1.3526, with targets at 1.3556 and 1.3633–1.3641. All targets have been reached. Today, consolidation above this zone would allow traders to keep positions open with a target of 1.3731.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Today, the MSCI Asia-Pacific equity index rose 0.6%. Futures on US indices also showed modest gains, while European equities prepared for a muted open after seven days of declines.

The 30-year US Treasury yield held at 5.25% after a nine-basis-point fall on Wednesday and a six-basis-point jump on Thursday. The market stabilized after two days of sharp swings, during which investors tried to assess whether Washington's efforts to cap long-term yields via bond buybacks will do more than provide a temporary respite. The dollar weakened against all major currencies.

Notably, yields rose on Thursday even after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled the possibility of larger buybacks and unveiled a fiscal plan. The expanded buyback proposal did not convince investors that it can sustainably contain long-term borrowing costs. Mr. Bessent sought to play down the moves as 24-hour noise and confirmed that expanded buybacks could exceed the $4 billion planned for next month. Nonetheless, market participants warned that a lack of predictability in the Treasury's debt strategy could ultimately translate into higher borrowing costs.

Gold rose 0.7% to about $4,550 an ounce, heading for a third weekly gain. Bitcoin continued its rally in Asia, jumping as much as 6% to $77,000, putting it on track for its best weekly performance in more than two years. Brent eased 0.3% to about $93.45 per barrel, ending a five-day rally.

A technical picture for the S&P 500 suggests that buyers' immediate task today is to clear resistance at $7,679. That will show strength and open the way to $7,698. Controlling $7,718 would further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, if risk appetite fades, buyers must defend $7,656. A break there will quickly push the index back to $7,633 and open the road to $7,607.

The current rally is driven by Washington's preparations for a campaign of economic isolation against Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the administration will present the details of the initiative on Monday after President Trump called this step "economic D-Day." The measures will be aimed at Tehran and could affect countries doing business with it, potentially including China.

The Chinese factor remains the main vulnerability of the entire endeavor. Beijing, being the largest importer of Iranian oil, stated that sanctions and pressure would not work and called for a diplomatic resolution. Bessent noted in his comments that China receives a significant portion of its energy supplies from the region, adding that it would greatly benefit from joining the program.

It is clear that Beijing is counting on Trump needing only a big show of economic pressure, but will not go so far as to actually suffocate Chinese banks. However, the prospect of adding sanctions against Iran to undermine its economy carries a certain degree of risk for the U.S. itself.

It is worth noting that existing measures have proven to be quite effective. Washington has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, aiming to cut off oil exports, and this cordon appears to have worked. But the most painful consequences for consumers have not manifested in the oil itself but in petroleum products. In the U.S., average retail prices for diesel fuel skyrocketed this week to nearly $5.55 per gallon, the highest since late May, while the margin from turning oil into diesel has recently surpassed $100 per barrel, reaching a historical record.

Additionally, further weakening of the U.S. dollar has provided additional support for dollar-denominated commodities. On Friday, the dollar index was heading to its lowest level since May of this year. Thus, oil is rising through three channels, including geopolitical risk, actual shortages of petroleum products, and currency factors. The publication of details regarding the American plan on Monday will show whether Washington will impose secondary sanctions against Chinese buyers, and it is from this that it will depend whether the current rally is the beginning of a new phase or another episode in a protracted standoff.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $86.60. This will allow them to target $89.60, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The most distant target will be around $92.56. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to gain control of $84.40. If successful, a breakout from this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $81.50, with a prospect of reaching $78.70.

The price test at 158.44 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair only declined by 15 pips.

Strong reports from the American economy yesterday propelled the dollar upward. The manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed rose to 47.4 points from 41.4, while its employment component reached a high since April 2022, and initial jobless claims decreased to 206,000. Strong reports reinforced expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and boosted U.S. Treasury yields, thereby supporting the dollar. For the yen, the strengthening dollar resulted in pressure, as it widened the gap between the Fed, where arguments for tightening are growing louder, and the much more cautious Bank of Japan.

Today, the pair's rise continued, and it is worth recalling the intervention factor, as the BOJ has already entered the market to support the national currency amid its sharp depreciation. Therefore, an excessively rapid rise in USD/JPY amid a strengthening dollar could lead Japanese authorities to consider a similar step again, and the market will closely monitor the pace of the pair's movement.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 159.04 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.45 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.45, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35-pip move back from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.78, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 159.04 and 159.45.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the level of 158.78 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.47, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; they need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.04, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 158.78 and 158.47.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3630 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. The second test at 1.3630 led to the implementation of scenario No. 2 for buying the pound, resulting in gains of nearly 20 pips.

Yesterday, a slight increase in the dollar after strong American data was again replaced by a decline, caused by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He stated that the amount of the repurchase of long-term government bonds could exceed the previously announced $4 billion per operation. An increase in bond repurchases raises demand for debt securities and adds liquidity to the market, thereby driving down yields and weakening the dollar. This factor outweighed the positive impact of strong economic data. The British pound took advantage of the U.S. currency's weakness and strengthened against it, continuing to develop a bull market.

Today, in the first half of the day, the pound awaits a busy block of British data, including the retail sales report adjusted for fuel costs and the August PMI indices for manufacturing, services, and the composite index. Retail sales reflect consumer activity and serve as an important indicator of demand. At the same time, PMI indices are based on company surveys and indicate the state of business activity, with the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction. The services sector is especially significant, as it constitutes the bulk of the British economy. Through this data, the market will assess the economy's resilience and the likely trajectory of the Bank of England's interest rate. Strong retail sales, combined with confidence in business activity indices, will bolster faith in the economy's resilience and support the pound, potentially helping the GBP/USD pair continue its recent growth. Conversely, weak results will dampen sentiment and return the British currency to dependence on external factors, so the reaction will largely be determined by deviations of actual figures from forecasts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point at around 1.3655 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3686 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3686, I plan to exit from long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). One can expect the pound to rise today in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3638, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3655 and 1.3686.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3638 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3607, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Only bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3655, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3638 and 1.3607.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1680 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. The second test at 1.1680 triggered the implementation of scenario No. 2 for buying, resulting in a slight increase of 10 pips.

Strong U.S. data set the tone for trading yesterday and ensured a rise for the dollar. The manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed jumped to 47.4 points from 41.4, and its employment component soared by 18 points to 27.9, marking a record high since April 2022. The index reflects sentiment in the region's industry. It is considered one of the early signals of business activity, so such a sharp increase convinced the market of the economy's resilience and played in favor of the American currency. Additional support for the dollar came from the labor market. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, and the number of recipients of benefits decreased to 1.799 million. Strong data increased the dollar's appeal and pushed the EUR/USD pair down.

Today, the euro enters the first half of the day amid a busy European agenda, with key items including the August PMI indices for manufacturing, services, and the composite index, as well as the Eurozone consumer confidence indicator. Business activity indices are leading indicators, as they are the first to capture changes in business sentiment, and the services sector is especially important, as it accounts for the largest share of the bloc's economy. Consumer confidence will add to the picture from the demand side. Much will depend on whether the data confirms the recent revival, as activity in the region was gaining momentum in July. Positive indicators could trigger a new wave of euro purchases, giving the EUR/USD pair upward momentum amid growing confidence in the economy's resilience.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro can be considered upon reaching a price of around 1.1705 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1739. At 1.1739, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the euro to rise in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1687, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1705 and 1.1739.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1687 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1647, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return if data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1705, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1687 and 1.1647.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The euro is trading around 1.1693, following an uptrend that began during Thursday's European session, but it could face strong resistance around the Murray 8/8 level, located at 1.1718.

The euro could experience a technical correction in the coming days; for this to happen, the Murray 8/8 level would need to act as a solid barrier. If the price reaches this zone and fails to break through it, this will be interpreted as a sell signal.

On the other hand, a double-top pattern may be in progress. If this pattern is confirmed, we could sell below 1.1718, and the price could even reach the 7/8 Murray line, around 1.1657, before finding support at the 21 SMA level, around 1.1629.

The Eagle indicator shows a positive signal; however, from a technical perspective, we are seeing a loss of upward momentum, so our strategy will be to sell if the price consolidates below 1.1718.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $2,344 after reaching the 7/8 Murray level around $2,380 and showing signs of extreme overbought conditions.

It has been in a strong consolidation phase since early August. On August 19, ETH rose sharply following the US Treasury Department's decision, which was beneficial to cryptocurrencies. In this instance, we saw an upward move that broke through the psychological $2,000 level and reached $2,274, representing a 20% gain.

If Ethereum consolidates below $2,375 in the coming hours, our outlook could turn bearish, and we could sell with targets at $2,250 or $2,125, waiting for a breather from the strong upward pressure before resuming the uptrend.

Our plan for the coming hours is to sell Ethereum below $2,375. However, if the price breaks above this zone, we should avoid selling, as the 7/8 Murray level represents strong resistance.

The Eagle indicator has reached 95 points, which supports our bearish strategy. We will look for opportunities to sell only below $2,375 and expect the price to reach $2,125 or the psychological level of $2,000.

Bitcoin is trading around $74,687 following a strong upward move and a gain of more than 20% over the past few days. On August 16, Bitcoin was trading around $62,500, and so far, it has gained more than $13,000, which means it is entering an overbought zone.

Bitcoin reached the psychological level of $75,000 and, in turn, hit the upper band of the uptrend channel around $75,700. Therefore, Bitcoin will likely consolidate below this zone in the coming hours, and we could expect the price to continue rising in the coming days, potentially reaching $76,800.

Given that the Eagle indicator has reached 95 points, we believe a technical correction could occur in the coming hours. Therefore, we should monitor Bitcoin's price; as long as it remains below the 8/8 Murray level around $75,000, this could be considered an opportunity to open short positions.

We will look for opportunities to sell below $75,000 with targets at $71,000 and ultimately expect it to reach $68,750.

If the price breaks above $75,000, we must be very cautious, as the upward pressure and momentum could continue to drive Bitcoin's gains; we could expect it to reach $76,880 or even the psychological level of $80,000.

Our trading plan for the next few hours will be to monitor whether BTC remains below 8/8 Murray. This will be a key zone for selling; if it breaks below it, our strategy will be to open short positions, expecting a correction down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $68,750.