The test of 157.75 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential.

The Fed's decision matters more for the yen than it might initially appear. Although the market puts the probability of a rate hike at this meeting below 10%, the outlook for subsequent meetings remains uncertain. Expectations of a rate hike in December are gradually being priced in, supporting US Treasury yields and, consequently, the dollar.

The yen has not forgotten the lessons of the previous Fed meeting. On September 15–16, the Fed raised its interest rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, with committee members voting unanimously in favor of the decision. The yen weakened in response. The market interpreted the rate hike as confirmation that the US central bank was prepared to continue fighting inflation, and Treasury yields moved higher. The Bank of Japan responded only two days later, raising its rate to 1.25% on September 18, but this was insufficient to reverse market sentiment.

For this reason, traders are paying particular attention to Kevin Warsh's remarks today. He will need to explain why the Fed is pausing after raising rates last month. A hawkish tone from Warsh would put further pressure on the yen. If the central bank emphasizes that inflation remains its primary focus and does not rule out further rate hikes, yields could rise, supporting USD/JPY and causing the already pressured yen to lose further ground. The Bank of Japan's cautious approach is also weighing on the currency. Its core consumer price index for September came in at 2.4%, compared with a forecast of 1.9%, while the market estimates the probability of a rate hike on October 30 at approximately 25%.

A dovish scenario would be the most favorable outcome for the yen. If Warsh indicates that the central bank has sufficient time to assess economic conditions, US Treasury yields could decline, the dollar could weaken, and USD/JPY could make a substantial move lower.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: USD/JPY can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 158.01 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 158.50 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.50, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from that level. The pair could rise today, although the upward potential appears limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests 157.78 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.01 and 158.50 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: USD/JPY can be sold today after the price breaks below 157.78 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 157.27, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests 158.01 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the levels of 157.78 and 157.27 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level for placing a Take Profit order or closing the position manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level for placing a Take Profit order or closing the position manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when deciding whether to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when risk management rules are not followed and excessively large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of 1.3287 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, no short position was opened on the pound.

Today, the pound faces the Fed's decision amid uncertainty on two fronts. On the one hand, Kevin Warsh will speak this evening. On the other, John Healey is presenting the annual budget and the Treasury's autumn forecast today, and market sentiment will depend on how convincing the plan proves to be. US inflation for September exceeded expectations, with producer prices rising by 1.3% month on month and 6.3% year on year. Fuel prices accounted for the largest share of the increase, leaving the Fed with limited room for maneuver.

Meanwhile, the UK budget has heightened market stress and caution. The document has not yet been published, forcing traders to price in uncertainty. If Warsh maintains a hawkish tone, the dollar will receive additional support, making it difficult for GBP/USD to hold its current levels even if the UK budget is broadly reassuring. A dovish stance from Warsh would create a more favorable outlook for the pound. If he signals a willingness to wait for further data, as Jefferson and Williams have done, the dollar will weaken, while the pound could recover some of yesterday's losses, supported by expectations of a Bank of England rate hike on November 5.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The pound can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3292 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3330 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3330, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from that level. The pound could rise today if US economic data are weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests 1.3265 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3292 and 1.3330 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The pound can be sold today after the price breaks below 1.3265 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3227, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if US economic data are stronger than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests 1.3292 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the levels of 1.3265 and 1.3227 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level for placing a Take Profit order or closing the position manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level for placing a Take Profit order or closing the position manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when deciding whether to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when risk management rules are not followed and excessively large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of 1.1125 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair rose by only 5 points, and that was the extent of the move.

Today's Fed decision is particularly important because it comes at a time when the single currency is already under pressure. The market expects a pause, although US inflation for September exceeded forecasts. Recently, FOMC members Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, who voted against the decision in July, may again call for a rate increase. Warsh will need to explain why the central bank, which unanimously raised rates last month, is now pausing. A hawkish outcome would be unfavorable for the euro. If Warsh reaffirms the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation and signals a possible rate increase in December, the dollar will strengthen, and EUR/USD, which has already lost ground this week, could fall to new recent lows. In addition, the ECB meeting is scheduled for tomorrow, with a pause expected, leaving the euro with few strong arguments to resist further pressure. Weak eurozone PMIs and deteriorating German sentiment reinforce this outlook.

A dovish tone would change the picture. If the Fed indicates that it is prepared to wait for further data, pressure on the dollar could intensify, giving the euro an opportunity for a technical rebound, particularly as the US currency has already become overbought. However, the likelihood of this scenario appears low. As long as energy prices remain high, EUR/USD has little chance of staging a sustained recovery.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the level around 1.1135 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1179. At 1.1179, the position can be closed, and a short position can be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro could rise today if US economic data are weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests 1.1114 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1135 and 1.1179 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be sold after the price reaches 1.1114 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1080, where the position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests 1.1135 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the levels of 1.1114 and 1.1080 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level for placing a Take Profit order or closing the position manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level for placing a Take Profit order or closing the position manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when deciding whether to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when risk management rules are not followed and excessively large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

On Wednesday, the British pound is losing ground against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive day. Market participants are awaiting two major events scheduled for today: the UK budget announcement and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision. The GBP/USD pair has fallen to its 20-day SMA, reaching a two-week low.

The main event of the week in the UK will be the presentation of the first budget under Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government. The focus will be on how the government plans to finance the tax relief measures announced to ease the pressure of the rising cost of living on British households.

The market remains cautious, as the UK's public finances are under significant pressure. In September, government debt exceeded £3 trillion, driven in part by a substantial increase in net borrowing. Rachel Reeves, the previous chancellor, established a fiscal buffer of £23.6 billion. However, rising debt-servicing costs have likely already consumed around half of that amount. Against the backdrop of volatility in the bond market and fresh memories of the financial turmoil under Liz Truss in 2022, the details of Chancellor Healey's budget could increase volatility in the pound.

On the other side of the pair, the US dollar is awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, market participants are questioning whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will reinforce expectations of another rate increase in December, particularly given his reluctance to provide clear guidance on the future path of monetary policy.

ING strategists note that "some stabilization in the artificial intelligence sector has allowed the foreign exchange market to refocus on more immediate and apparent risks: rising energy prices, accelerating inflation, and the likely response from central banks." This reassessment of risks is supporting speculative demand for the US dollar.

Regarding the Fed, ING experts believe that "Chair Warsh is unlikely to want to limit his room for maneuver by referring to tighter financial conditions: he has already taken on board the lesson from the market's sharp reaction to his press conference in July." According to the analysts, "restoring monetary policy stability will remain a central theme of his remarks, which should continue to support the dollar."

From a technical perspective, the pair remains under pressure. The 20-day SMA is the last significant support level. If the pair fails to hold above it, the decline could accelerate toward 1.3180, followed by the October low.

On a potential recovery, the first resistance area is formed by the convergence of the 9-day and 14-day EMAs. The next obstacle is the 100-day SMA, followed by significant resistance at the 200-day SMA. A break above the latter could ease selling pressure on the pair. For now, however, the oscillators remain in negative territory, giving sellers the advantage.

No other significant data came out of Europe, leaving the GfK report as the day's only notable indicator. It can be viewed as confirmation of the broader picture. The Ifo survey on Monday showed a deterioration in assessments of current economic conditions, while Germany's composite PMI fell to 52.8 from 53.8 on Friday. This indicates that German consumers and businesses remain cautious. The UK has no regular economic releases today, leaving the budget as the main domestic market driver.

Several important events are coming up. The Fed will announce its decision later today. The market expects a pause, so leaving interest rates unchanged would not, in itself, change much. Attention will instead turn to Kevin Warsh's tone at the press conference. The ECB meeting follows tomorrow, with most participants also expecting a pause. Under these circumstances, the euro is likely to remain dependent on sentiment toward the US dollar.

For the pound, today's main event is the annual budget, accompanied by the Treasury's autumn forecast. Earlier, budget-related concerns appeared to be taking a back seat for the British currency, but on the day of the budget itself, they returned and increased the risks for the pair. Chancellor John Healey has limited room left before breaching his own fiscal rules. The headroom stood at £23.6 billion in the spring, but high energy costs, inflation, and rising borrowing costs have since reduced it considerably.

It is important to understand how the relationship between the budget and the pound works. When the government borrows more than expected, investors demand higher yields on UK government bonds, and the resulting uncertainty typically puts pressure on the currency. Earlier this month, the yield on 30-year government bonds rose to 6.05%, while the 10-year yield reached 5.527%. Both were multi-year highs, and budget concerns were among the main factors weighing on the pound.

If the budget is delivered smoothly, the pound will have a strong argument for a rebound. If, however, the market sees unclear figures or a lack of confidence in the plan, the pair could fall sharply. Against a strong dollar, this would be a particularly risky scenario. I therefore expect sharper-than-usual price swings on budget day and advise novice traders not to rush into positions during the first few minutes after the announcement, as the initial reaction can be misleading.

Momentum

EUR/USD

The price is currently at 1.1125, almost exactly midway between two breakout levels: 1.1136 is 11 points away, while 1.1115 is 10 points away. The morning low near 1.1114 came almost exactly at the lower level, and the pair rebounded from it, meaning that the first test did not result in a breakout.

A break below 1.1115 followed by consolidation beneath it could lead to 1.1082 and 1.1036. This remains the primary scenario, as the fundamental backdrop favors the dollar and the Fed's decision is due this evening. On the other hand, 1.1136 is the key level. A break above it could take the euro toward 1.1155 and 1.1176. Such a rebound would require dovish remarks from Warsh, and this scenario appears unlikely.

GBP/USD

The price is currently at 1.3279. The 1.3267 level lies 12 points below. If the pair falls below this level and consolidates there, it could move toward 1.3233 and 1.3209. This outcome is entirely plausible if the budget triggers nervousness in the bond market. The morning low was around 1.3271, just four pips above the level, and the pair rebounded from it.

The upward reference level is 1.3299, located 20 pips above the current price. A break above it could lead to 1.3330 and 1.3361. This scenario requires a smoothly received budget announcement, so it remains an alternative rather than the primary outlook, although it cannot be ruled out.

Mean Reversion

EUR/USD

The upper reference level at 1.1141 is just five pips above the breakout level at 1.1136, so caution is required. Five points can amount to little more than market noise. If the price breaks above 1.1136, reaches 1.1141, and consolidates firmly above it, this constitutes a breakout, and selling should be avoided. If, however, the price briefly moves above the level, fails to hold there, and quickly returns below 1.1136, this signals a failed breakout and a potential reversal. In that case, selling opportunities can be considered, with a stop-loss above the highest point of the failed attempt.

The lower reference level at 1.1111 is four points below the breakout level at 1.1115, and the same principle applies in reverse. If the price falls below 1.1111 and holds there, this constitutes a downward breakout, and buying should be avoided. If the price briefly declines below the level, fails to extend the decline, and returns above 1.1115, buying opportunities can be considered, with a stop-loss below the lowest point of the failed attempt. The morning low at 1.1114 did not reach this reference level, so the setup has not yet been properly tested. The initial reaction at either zone should be ignored until the price action becomes clearer.

GBP/USD

The upper reference level at 1.3303 is four points above the breakout level at 1.3299, requiring particular caution. If the price breaks above 1.3299, reaches 1.3303, and consolidates above it, this constitutes a breakout, and selling should be avoided. If the price tests the zone but quickly returns below 1.3299, this signals a failed breakout and a potential reversal. In that case, selling opportunities can be considered, with a stop-loss above the highest point of the failed attempt.

The lower reference level at 1.3273 is six pips above the breakout level at 1.3267, and the morning low at 1.3271 was close to this area. The pair briefly declined toward the zone, rebounded, and reached 1.3295, meaning that the reversal setup has already worked once.

Today, buying opportunities can again be considered if the price briefly falls below 1.3273 and then returns above it. The stop-loss should be placed below the lowest point of the failed attempt. However, if the pair breaks below 1.3267 and remains there, no reversal has occurred; instead, a downward breakout is underway, and buying should be avoided. On budget day, stop-loss orders require particular attention, as a sharp surge in gilt yields can cause prices to move rapidly through multiple levels.

The annual pace of tradable inflation dropped to 4.3% from the double-digit levels seen mid-year, and quarterly tradable inflation was just 0.2% — the slowdown driven by lower fuel prices. Non-tradable inflation, by contrast, remained at 3.3% year-on-year, while the quarterly rise of 1.0% was weaker than the RBNZ's expected 1.3%.

Having weighed the inflation data, the RBNZ likely concluded there is no overheating of domestic demand. This morning the bank surprised markets by voting 4–3 to hold the policy rate at 2.75%, while the market had priced a roughly 80% chance of a rate hike.

Those in favour of pausing pointed to weak domestic demand, noting that the two prior rate hikes had already had some effect and time was now needed to evaluate it, especially given stable medium-term inflation expectations and muted wage growth. Proponents of a rate increase argued that core inflation measures were already at the top of the target range and price pressures were broadening: over 85% of the CPI basket had risen over the year. They warned that delay could allow inflation expectations to become entrenched.

RBNZ Governor Berman said at the press conference she expects further hikes at future meetings and added that it may be necessary to move into restrictive territory. That statement largely neutralised the "dovish" effect of the decision itself. The RBNZ also raised its inflation forecast for Q4 to 4.4% — a sharp uptick from 3.7%, reflecting not only fuel but also a roughly 3% weakening of the kiwi since September.

The October 28 decision does not cancel the tightening cycle; it merely postpones it. The market, which initially read the pause as a signal that the cycle had ended, quickly adjusted expectations after Berman's comments. The December meeting is now the most likely window for a third hike. If the quarterly inflation data for December — published in January but already being priced in — confirm that price growth is not limited to fuel and is spreading to services and non-tradable components, the RBNZ will have a mandate to act.

The main rationale for a December hike is the logic behind October's decision. If the committee was prepared to raise the rate now based on core inflation risks and currency weakness, November and December data will hardly change that picture materially toward easing. If anything, they could strengthen the case: if fuel remains expensive and the kiwi stays weak, inflationary pressure in Q4 could exceed 4.4% and make the October pause increasingly hard to justify.

Net short positions in NZD increased over the reporting week by 0.63 billion to -3.27 billion; the implied price remains below the long-run average, and there are no conditions yet for a return to a growth trajectory.

The kiwi fell as expected after the RBNZ meeting; the odds of a corrective rally have diminished, and the local high of 0.5705 is unlikely to be revisited. We expect attempts to break the 0.5560 low, after which the next target would be the two-year trough at 0.5481.

For the second day running on Wednesday, USD/CAD has shown upside momentum, continuing the rebound that began earlier this week from the 200-day EMA around 1.3960–1.3965. The instrument has broken above the 1.4050 level — where the 100-day SMA lies — and hit a weekly high ahead of key central bank events.

The Bank of Canada is due to announce its rate decision today; the consensus expects a 25-basis-point hike. Nevertheless, the main event remains the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting and the Fed chair's comments afterwards.

In addition, important US macroeconomic data on Thursday — the preliminary Q3 GDP estimate and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — could shed light on the Fed's policy trajectory. Those data will play a decisive role for the US dollar and may give USD/CAD additional impetus.

Meanwhile, CME Group's FedWatch tool shows the market pricing in more than an 80% chance of a Fed rate increase in December. Such expectations are driven by concerns about inflationary pressure from high energy prices. The pause in US-Iran talks and renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia have also added a geopolitical risk premium, helping the US dollar — a traditional safe-haven asset — attract buyers for a fourth consecutive day.

However, rising crude prices could support the Canadian dollar, which is closely tied to commodity prices, thereby creating an obstacle to further USD/CAD gains and calling for caution among bulls.

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US has asked several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a short but intense military campaign against Iran that could take place after the US midterm elections on November 3. Additionally, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed a direct ballistic-missile strike on the Saudi Ministry of Defense building in Riyadh. Against this backdrop and following the suspension of US-Iran talks, fears of further escalation in the Middle East have intensified. This drew new buyers into the crude market, allowing prices to resume their rise after a two-day correction from the multi-month high reached last Friday.

Technically, USD/CAD retains a bullish intraday bias while trading above the 100-day SMA. Immediate resistance is at the convergence of the 9-day EMA and the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), which the pair is currently trying to overcome. Beyond that, resistance levels lie at 1.4100 and the 1.4135–1.4150 zone, where the 20-day SMA runs. The 100-day SMA provides support. If prices fall further, the next support is the 50-day SMA; below that, the round 1.4000 level. A deeper pullback could test the important support near the 200-day EMA. However, because oscillators are negative, bears have the edge — so intraday bulls should exercise caution.

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating as markets await the outcome of the Fed's monetary policy meeting, which is expected to leave all policy settings unchanged. At the same time, according to released economic data, inflation in Australia ticked to 3.7% from 3.6%, which will push the RBA toward another rate hike. If the Fed decides to leave interest rates unchanged, the currency pair could receive support.

Technically, the AUD/USD pair is trading below resistance at 0.7045.

Technical picture and trading idea

The price is now above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and above the 5? and 14?period SMAs. The RSI is above the 50 level and moving sideways. Stochastics are declining.

The instrument could rise to 0.6912 following the Fed decision. A buy entry could be at 0.7050. SL — 0.7006.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a primary ascending channel (in blue), which intersects with a steeper, secondary ascending channel (in pink/red). Notably, the price has rebounded strongly from the lower boundaries of these channels, moving upward past their midlines. This has formed a series of higher lows, signaling a return of buying momentum and indicating that the bulls (buyers) are in control of intraday trading.

Interaction with Weekly Pivot Levels: The price is currently testing the weekly pivot level at 4053.46. This stability and the intraday breach of the pivot serve as a positive signal, supporting further upward movement. Meanwhile, the price is approaching its next immediate hurdle: the first weekly resistance level (Weekly R1) at 4131.80, which represents the primary target for buyers.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Major Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 4053.46 (the weekly pivot level, which is currently acting as a key support-turned-resistance). Second Resistance: 4088.55 – 4100.00 (upper intraday resistance zones).

Pivot Resistance: 4131.80 (Weekly R1 – first weekly resistance level).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 4030.00 – 4040.00 (near-term support zones and the midline of the ascending channel).

Second Support: 4010.55 (rebound area and the most recent local low).

Pivot Support: 3991.05 and below (the lower boundary of the ascending channel).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive trajectory is likely in the intraday timeframe, provided the price remains stable above the weekly pivot point of 4053.46 and above the boundaries of the ascending channel.

Recommendation: Consider buying upon a corrective pullback or following a firm stabilization above the 4053.46 level.

Technical Targets: Aim for 4088.00, with potential extension toward the first weekly resistance at 4131.80.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if the price fails to hold above the pivot point, leading to selling pressure that pushes it back into negative territory.

Confirmation Condition: A clear hourly candle close below the 4030.00 level.

Technical Targets: A retest of the support zones at 4010.55, followed by the lower boundary of the channel near 3991.05. Risk Management

Intraday trading in gold markets requires strict adherence to capital management rules. Risk per trade should be capped at a maximum of 2%, and stop-loss orders must be precisely implemented to protect the portfolio against sudden price fluctuations.

Gold Price Action on the Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at 4054.34 within a descending channel on the daily timeframe. It is showing signs of a corrective rebound following a touch of the channel's lower boundary, near the first monthly support level (Monthly S1) at 4008.04.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday and Today):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected a positive rebound (a bullish candle) as the price successfully bounced from a local low near the 4000.00 level, regaining some buying momentum.

Today's Candle: Indicates a continuation of this positive momentum and an intraday rise, confirming the corrective wave and the price's reaction to strong support zones.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bullish Corrective Scenario (Currently the most likely): The positive rebound continues, targeting nearby resistance at 4083.30, with potential for further extension toward 4139.40—provided the price remains stable above the first monthly support level of 4008.04.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): This would be triggered if the price faces renewed selling pressure, leading to a break and daily close below the 4008.04 support level. Such a move would open the door for a deeper decline toward the second monthly support level (Monthly S2) at 3859.25.

On Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) paused its upward movement after failing to break above the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) ahead of a key US central bank decision. Today, the Federal Reserve will announce the outcome of its monetary policy meeting, with the consensus forecast pointing to interest rates remaining unchanged. However, investors should pay attention to the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the press conference.

US macroeconomic releases due on Thursday will also be important for the market, including the preliminary third-quarter GDP estimate and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. These data could provide further insight into the likely path of Fed monetary policy. Interest rate expectations will remain a key driver of short-term US dollar movements and, consequently, gold prices.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool from CME Group, market participants assign a probability of more than 80% to a Fed rate hike in December. Inflation risks associated with high energy prices are also weighing on the precious metal, as they reinforce expectations of further monetary policy tightening.

The base-case scenario assumes that the Fed will pause in October and resume its tightening cycle in December. Strategists at BNY Markets share a similar view: "Like the market, we do not forecast a rate hike in October and expect further tightening to take place at the December meeting."

BNY also allows for internal disagreement within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): "We expect at least one dissenting vote—and possibly more—in favor of raising interest rates." Analysts believe that one or two such dissenting votes could be interpreted by the market as a hawkish signal, strengthening expectations of higher borrowing costs before the end of the year.

Commenting on the upcoming press conference, experts note: "We do not expect any hints of a December rate hike, as Chair Kevin Warsh is not inclined to provide guidance on future monetary policy decisions. Nevertheless, we believe market expectations of a December rate hike will strengthen further."

A geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in gold prices amid the threat of escalating tensions in the Middle East. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States had informed several Arab states in the Persian Gulf that they should be prepared for a short but intensive military operation against Iran, which could potentially begin after the November 3 midterm elections.

Tensions increased further after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen claimed to have carried out a direct ballistic missile strike on the Saudi Ministry of Defense building in Riyadh. The prolonged deadlock in US-Iran negotiations has also pushed crude oil prices higher and supported the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, keeping it near a two-week high. This has created an additional headwind for XAU/USD.Nevertheless, gold buyers continue to attempt a break above the 9-day EMA. This price action makes it difficult for aggressive sellers to establish a clear advantage, although the overall fundamental backdrop still favors further downside, with corrective rebounds potentially attracting renewed selling interest.From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading intraday just above the 100-hour exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,044.00. This level currently acts as short-term support and limits selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at around 60, indicates only moderate bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is declining toward zero, suggesting that the upward momentum may be fading as prices consolidate following the recent advance.

The inability of prices to establish themselves above $4,065 is another warning sign for gold buyers. A decisive break above this level could open the way for further recovery. On the other hand, a break below support at the 100-hour EMA could accelerate the decline toward $4,030, where the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) is located. A deeper correction could bring prices toward the October low near $3,970.

The pause is logical but not easy to justify. Last month the committee unanimously voted to raise rates to curb price growth, and its projections then assumed another step this year. Subsequent data only reinforced those concerns: September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core inflation beating expectations; producer prices jumped 1.3% m/m and 6.3% y/y versus 5.6% in August—the fastest rise in over four years, with a large share due to energy. Expensive energy is keeping inflation from easing.

Still, some officials signaled caution. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed president John Williams said about a month ago the Fed has time to assess the economy before another hike. Governor Christopher Waller later added that timing remains flexible and hiking at every meeting is unnecessary. That group shaped market expectations for a pause, so today's decision should not surprise markets.

The intrigue is in voting. In July three regional presidents dissented and wanted a 25-bp hike when the Fed paused. They could repeat that today. Cleveland's Beth Hammack warns that repeated supply shocks may embed inflationary expectations in firms and households, making disinflation harder. Neel Kashkari says the Fed's job is to tame inflation after five years of supply shocks. Dallas's Lorie Logan has argued this month for further hikes, noting yields could slow the economy.

The press conference will be decisive. Kevin Warsh consistently refuses to give explicit guidance, saying at the IMF meetings in Bangkok that he does not pre-determine meeting outcomes: "This is a new chapter at the Fed, and we don't do that anymore." September's press conference was notably shorter, and Warsh has formed a working group to review conference formats and communications.

For markets this implies several takeaways. A pause without hawkish language would weaken the dollar, lift gold, and give AI stocks a breather—which is what happened in Asia today. Hawkish language would strengthen the dollar, press gold and euro area currencies, and add pressure to bonds. Note that oil near $115/bbl and fears of post-midterm military action give the Fed reasons to be cautious.

I expect the Fed to hold rates but adopt a hawkish tone and possibly face several dissenting votes. Warsh is unlikely to promise December explicitly but will confirm readiness to act if inflation does not cool. In that case the dollar will retain its edge and yields will remain high. If the tone is softer than expected, a dollar pullback and gold rally are possible, though I would not count on a prolonged move.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Buyers need to reclaim 1.1140. Only that would allow a test of 1.1155, then 1.1180, but doing so without major player support will be difficult. On the downside, expect serious buying only near 1.1115; if that level fails, wait for a new low near 1.1090 or consider longs from 1.1050.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take resistance at 1.3300 to target 1.3330, above which further upside would be difficult. The far target is 1.3360. On the downside, bears will try to seize 1.3265; a break would hit bulls and send GBP/USD toward 1.3230 with scope to 1.3200.

On the lower time frame (top chart), an impulsive wave sequence continues to develop and may belong to wave E on the higher time frame. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how much further it appreciates. The projected wave 5 of E is either complete or approaching completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have driven a strong rally in the US dollar, but few new factors remain to support further appreciation.

The Market Does Not Even Need a Fed Meeting

The EUR/USD exchange rate fell by another 50 basis points on Tuesday, which probably no longer surprises anyone. The ECB and the Fed are scheduled to hold meetings this week, but the market appears largely uninterested in them. Market participants already know how the central banks will act in the near future and do not need any further guidance. At least, that is the impression created by the instrument's price movements. The market, in general, is not expecting either the ECB or the Fed to tighten monetary policy. What, then, explains the dollar's strength, given that it has risen sharply over the past two days? Is the Fed planning to raise interest rates in December? The ECB is also expected to raise rates in December. However, the ECB would be raising rates for the third time, while the Fed would be doing so for the second time. Nevertheless, the market is ignoring these considerations and the obvious facts. Following a minor corrective wave, the market is once again experiencing what is effectively a collapse.

Yesterday's notable events included the US durable goods orders report and a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. As expected, Ms. Lagarde provided no significant new information to the markets, as the ECB meeting is scheduled for tomorrow. As for the US durable goods orders report, it provided support for EUR/USD sellers, although they hardly need any additional support this week. The latest decline in the euro against the US dollar contradicts both the wave structure and the news background, yet it continues. As a result, the dollar is once again rising against all expectations, as it has repeatedly done over the past two months. The structure of the downward trend segment could still be extended, but even in that case, it already appears almost complete. If the instrument falls below 1.1082, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, the euro could enter a free fall, and the wave count would require substantial revision.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the global corrective trend structure A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. Current conditions appear favorable not only for buying the euro but also for anticipating the development of a sustained upward trend segment. According to the higher time frame, the exchange rate is expected to rise to at least the 17–18 levels. The failed attempt to break below 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (bottom chart, higher time frame), also indicates that the market may be preparing for a recovery.

The higher time frame shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, which may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

The main principles of the analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often require adjustments.
2. If there is uncertainty about market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty about the direction of price movements. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the new downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low either. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US currency, while other factors have so far had little influence. Bearish momentum is also helping the dollar maintain its strength.

The news background on Tuesday was relatively subdued and did not suggest another strong bearish move. However, the dollar's continued appreciation should not come as a surprise. For two consecutive months, the market has focused almost exclusively on the dollar, as though other currencies did not exist. Explanations such as the ECB deciding on a "dovish pause" and the Fed opting for a "hawkish pause" sound unconvincing. Both central banks are inclined toward further monetary policy tightening. A pause is simply a pause, regardless of its characterization. Therefore, the future policy positions of the ECB and the Fed, which have not yet been announced, are unlikely to explain the bears' renewed selling pressure. Many traders are currently paying virtually no attention to Thursday's ECB meeting, as though it were not taking place. Nor is the euro's weakness necessarily attributable to the sluggish EU economy. The EU economy has been growing at a modest pace for years, yet this did not prevent the ECB from raising interest rates during the COVID-19 period or from raising them twice already this year.

On the four-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar after a bearish divergence formed on the CCI indicator. A new decline toward the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1088 has begun. No new emerging divergences are visible on any of the indicators today. Consolidation above the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1221 would allow traders to anticipate a resumption of the advance toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1325.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 3,492 Long positions and 443 Short positions. Speculators currently hold a total of 226,000 Long positions and 361,000 Short positions. Bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributed to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's efforts to bring inflation down. The market continues to expect inflation to be reduced to 2% by any available means.

Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Events of various kinds around the world, which have been abundant in recent years, inevitably affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of unpredictable events. As a result, traders must continually adapt to changing market conditions.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union

• Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence Index (07:00 UTC).
• United States – FOMC interest rate decision (18:00 UTC).
• United States – Kevin Warsh's press conference (18:30 UTC).

On October 28, the economic calendar contains three events, with the Fed meeting being the most significant. Economic developments could have a substantial impact on market sentiment on Wednesday evening.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Buying opportunities may arise today if the pair rebounds from the 1.1081–1.1086 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1220. Selling opportunities arose after the pair closed below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target. These positions can remain open today.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and four-hour charts.

The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not broken below the previous low. As a result, bulls have temporarily gained the upper hand. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Bulls have now taken center stage, as the Bank of England may begin a monetary policy tightening cycle next week.

The news background on Tuesday was largely absent or relatively weak, but the pound continued to decline throughout the day. The current movement can still be described as a corrective pullback, but the decline has been too steady and persistent over the past few days to look like a typical correction. There are few convincing reasons for a new bearish advance. The Bank of England is expected to tighten monetary policy next week, while the Fed is expected to announce a pause in rate hikes this evening. Thus, monetary policy factors are fully supportive of the pound. However, as with the euro, the market is currently paying attention to little other than the dollar. Yesterday, the dollar received support from a strong US durable goods orders report, but these are the only positive developments for the US currency this week. Yet the dollar has gained approximately 100 pips in just the first two and a half days. In my assessment, this evening's FOMC meeting should trigger a decline in the US currency, regardless of Kevin Warsh's rhetoric. The dollar is once again demonstrating strength and potential, but these are being artificially sustained by the market itself. An artificially driven rally is not the best backdrop for a trend.

On the four-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and declined toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3277. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and allow for a modest recovery toward 1.3348 and 1.3409. A close below 1.3277 would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 100.0% (1.3159), from which the pound began its advance. No emerging divergences are visible on any of the indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among Non-commercial traders became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 10,043, while the number of Short positions decreased by 16,501. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 54,000 versus 134,000, respectively. The bears' advantage has narrowed again, although it had been widening in recent weeks. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but it is now less clear because the news background has changed over the past few months.

The bearish trend in the pound remains unconvincing. However, developments in the near future will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had properly begun. The war between the two countries could resume in full force as early as November.

US and UK Economic Calendar

• US – FOMC interest rate decision (18:00 UTC).
• US – Kevin Warsh's press conference (18:30 UTC).

On October 28, the economic calendar contains two events, both of which are important. The impact of economic developments on market sentiment on Wednesday evening could be significant.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from 1.3404 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3342. This target was reached. Further selling opportunities emerged after the pair closed below 1.3342, with targets at 1.3263 and 1.3177. These positions can remain open today. Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from 1.3263 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3342.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the four-hour chart.

Major banks split into camps, but the nuance is critical. Goldman Sachs expects a pause now and a lift in December, viewing the Fed's approach as a compromise of intermittent hikes. Citigroup also sees a 25-bp move in December, followed by a pause. Bank of America stands apart: it expects a 25-bp hike today, arguing that price pressures have worsened since September. Traders, however, are focusing less on the headline rate and more on how hawkish Kevin Warsh sounds about further tightening.

For crypto, the transmission is straightforward. Oil near $110 feeds inflation, a hawkish Fed tone lifts yields and the dollar, while risk assets lose appeal. Bitcoin remains a risk asset holding in many funds. Ether typically reacts more strongly given higher volatility and weaker ETF inflows. The Fear & Greed index sits near neutral at about 48 — not overheated, but not brimming with optimism either.

The first scenario is hawkish. If Warsh explicitly signals that a December hike is essentially a done deal and hints at further tightening in the months ahead, yields would rise, the dollar would strengthen, and Bitcoin and Ether are expected to fall. For Bitcoin, the first downside target would be about $79,000, then $78,000 — where large protective options cluster — and then the $76,540 level that Galaxy calls a "red line." Ether could sink to about $2,300 and test $2,276. Note that the price reaction will likely come after Warsh's comments rather than after the rate decision itself.

The second scenario is dovish. If Warsh emphasizes a data-dependent approach, avoids committing to December, and acknowledges downside risks to markets and the economy, pressure on yields would ease, and crypto would have a chance to rally. Bitcoin could return toward $83,000 and test the weekly high near $85,000, and Ether could reclaim $2,400. ETF demand would help this outcome — funds already showed inflows after soft news before. Recall that Warsh said on October 16 he does not pre-decide meetings; the market will test that line today.

In my view, the hawkish scenario is more likely. The pause is already priced in the market, and a December hike is broadly expected by economists. Warsh has little incentive to calm markets amid elevated inflation and high oil prices. Since the December move is largely priced in, I would not expect a deep crash. Most likely, Bitcoin will fall initially toward $79,000 after the Fed, and holding that zone would signal that sellers have exhausted themselves ahead of key tech earnings.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers target a return to $80,900, a level that opens a path to $82,800 and then $84,500, clearing which would suggest attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers to defend near $78,700. A break below that area could push BTC quickly toward $76,900; a deeper target would be $75,300.

Ethereum

Consolidation above $2,348 would open a direct path to $2,417, with the next target around $2,508, a break above which would confirm renewed bullish sentiment and return buyer interest. On the downside, look for support near $2,274. A break and hold below that level could drive ETH toward $2,231. A further downside target would be $2,184.

What's on the chart:

• Red: support and resistance levels where the price is expected to slow or accelerate.
• Green: 50-day moving average.
• Blue: 100-day moving average.
• Light green: 200-day moving average.

Crosses of, or the price tests of, these moving averages typically either arrest moves or set the next market impulse.

What triggered the move was a strong report from SK Hynix and an announcement of roughly $45 billion in shareholder returns. That brought investors back into the AI segment, which had been under pressure for three weeks, and showed that big players are still deploying capital even as smaller names struggle. The sector also received a boost this week from Anthropic's S-1 filing and a string of other capital-raising plans.

The market now faces several near-term tests. The Fed decision is scheduled for today, Alphabet and Microsoft are set to report within days, and later this week, the ECB and the BOJ will hold their policy meetings. The market expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady, despite stronger-than-expected September inflation. Traders price in a sub-10% chance of a rate hike this week but already peg a December increase as likely. Recall that committee members voted unanimously for the last rate increase, and many still expect another hike this year, so Chair Kevin Warsh will need to explain why the Fed is holding. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up by 2 bps to 5.02%.

Geopolitics remains front and center. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US warned several Gulf states of a possible short, intense campaign after the midterms, a development that was immediately felt in commodity markets.

Brent halted a two-day slide and rose by 1.8% to $115.90/bbl. That's bullish for exporters but a further argument for tighter policy for consumers and central banks, because costly energy fuels inflation. Gold fell by 0.7% to settle around $4,030/oz.

Today's Asian rally looks more like a reaction to earnings than a vote of long-term confidence. If Warsh maintains a hawkish tone and reaffirms odds of a December hike, particularly with oil above $115, the AI rally will likely give back part of today's gains. Conversely, if the Fed avoids putting renewed pressure on the bond market and Alphabet and Microsoft deliver strong results, that could cement the bounce and keep Kospi leadership intact.

As for S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the resistance level of $7,737. That would show upside momentum and open a path to $7,756. Gaining control of $7,774 would further strengthen bulls' positions. On a downside move amid falling risk appetite, buyers should defend near $7,718. A break below that level would likely push the index to $7,698 and open the way to $7,679.

Bloomberg polling shows a Democratic win at the midterms would pressure the S&P 500. Yet history shows market sentiment often shifts after such political forecasts: investors first model a drop, then revise their views. So, don't overreact to headline political scenarios — the market's view can (and will) change.

Expected market capitalizations

One clear tailwind for the S&P 500 is AI — the theme behind a five?year bull run. Anthropic's claim that it could reach a $40 trillion market cap if its IPO succeeds has energized buyers. That figure eclipses even SpaceX's jaw?dropping $28.5 trillion estimate.

2026 may well be a record year for IPO capital raising. Elon Musk's ventures have already pulled in $86 billion, and the Claude producer aims to push that total toward $100 billion. For context, the previous peak was 1999, when IPOs brought $65 billion into the market (about $133 billion in current dollars). That historical parallel inevitably raises the dot?com?era question: could an AI bubble burst too?

Russell 3000 and IPO index dynamics

IPOs are not the best buying opportunities in many cases, because seller and buyer interests don't align at flotation. It's no surprise the IPO index lags the small?cap Russell 3000. Still, investors argue Anthropic's offering signals the AI boom still has life, and that institutional money will keep fueling the theme.

NVIDIA keeps fuelling the fire. The chipmaker plans to inject $3 billion into new Meta stock issuance, effectively acting as a financing hub inside the AI ecosystem, providing capital to those who buy its chips.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has returned to fair value around 7,725. A successful break above that level would justify adding to existing long positions. Conversely, a retreat from there would increase consolidation risk and reopen the case for trimming or selling the broad index.

The reason for caution is clear. Tonight the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, and the market overwhelmingly expects a pause. Under normal circumstances, that would support gold, but traders are already pricing in hikes later this year, which offsets the effect. The chance of a hike at this meeting is under 10%, while the market already prices in a December hike. Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult task: he must convince investors that the Fed still intends to fight inflation, fueled by persistently high energy prices.

Oil sets the tone today. Brent rose to nearly $115 after reports that the U.S. warned Persian-Gulf countries about a possible new military campaign against Iran. That was compounded by uncertainty in Israel, where the elections are deadlocked. Remember: high oil prices work against gold along the chain of oil, inflation, and interest rates, and until that link eases, the metal will struggle to mount a sustained rally. In addition, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the PCE price index — will be released on Thursday. The prior August reading was 3.4% year-on-year overall and 3.0% for core PCE; any overshoot would strengthen the case for tighter policy.

Recent gold weakness was largely technical. Last week the metal fell to its lowest since mid-July as investors sold gold to cover losses elsewhere during the AI-sector sell-off. JPMorgan Private Bank says gold will find a solid bottom when rates peak, but it also warns the market remains fragile and there is little technical support below $4,000.

Demand is so far preventing a deeper collapse. Chinese households have been buying more gold on dips for the past two months because prices softened and the domestic equity market lost appeal. Physical buyers and bargain hunters helped halt the drop as the metal slipped below $4,000.

But for a sustained rally, gold clearly needs a combination of cheaper oil, softer inflation, a weaker dollar, and lower yields. None of those conditions are currently in place. I think gold will remain under pressure today and will most likely retest $4,000 again—especially if Warsh keeps a hawkish tone and confirms expectations for a December hike. A close below that level in thin liquidity could open the way to new lows, although Chinese demand is unlikely to allow a very deep breakdown. I expect a real reversal only after oil falls below $110 and yields begin to decline.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,062 to target $4,124, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is the $4,192 area. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of $4,000; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold to a $3,954 low with a prospect of extending to $3,906.

The main trigger was a Wall Street Journal report. The paper said the U.S. has asked several Persian Gulf countries to be ready for a short but intense campaign. According to the Journal's sources, Donald Trump has not made a final decision but is leaning toward a large-scale strike after the elections. Earlier market rumors said the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options ahead of the midterms. The timing has now shifted to the period after voting, but the logic remains the same. Trump has sent additional forces to the Gulf, including a third carrier strike group, and over the weekend said in an interview that "the time to decide" between a deal and a new attack is approaching.

A second factor is Israel. Two exit polls show the bloc of opposition leader Gadi Eizenkot neck-and-neck with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc; a third poll gives Netanyahu a small lead. Neither side is likely to reach the 61 seats needed to govern alone, so lengthy coalition talks or even a repeat vote are possible. Until a government is formed, Netanyahu remains prime minister and could back Trump in a new campaign.

Physical risks also remain high. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis continue to attack Saudi energy infrastructure. Media reports said a fire broke out Tuesday morning near Saudi Arabia's largest oil terminal at Ras Tanura. The blaze was contained, but the extent of damage is unclear. Notably, similar strikes on Saudi targets occurred last week, when a drone hit the Shaybah field, and the U.S. ordered non-essential personnel out of the country.

Stocks push prices in the same direction. The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels last week — another weekly draw amid already-thin stocks. Official Department of Energy data are due today; the consensus calendar points to roughly a 300,000-barrel decline versus the prior -3.06 million figure. If the DOE confirms even a modest draw, it will reinforce the tightening narrative.

Attention will then turn to the Federal Reserve. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady, and high oil remains the primary argument for a hawkish tone, since rising energy prices feed inflation and constrain central banks' options. Higher energy is a boon for exporters but a burden for consumers — and ahead of the U.S. elections it risks denting Republicans' ratings.

I believe Brent will hold above $110 through November 3, and any fresh signal of a planned strike or another attack on Saudi facilities could easily push it back toward $120. I expect declines only if concrete diplomatic progress occurs; so far the market hears only talk of a "time to decide."

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $102 to target $105, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is around $109. On a downside move, bears will try to seize control of $98; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push Oil to a $95 low, with the prospect of extending to $92.

The price test at 157.82 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose about 15 pips.

The yen ceded ground to the dollar yesterday, and U.S. data played the main role. The Conference Board consumer-confidence index for October jumped to 91.7 versus a forecast of 80.5 and 84.2 in September, and the current-situation sub-index rose to 120.4. Durable-goods orders increased 1.8% versus a 0.6% forecast, and new-home sales were 676k versus a 649k forecast. That mix indicates the U.S. economy is holding up and supports expectations for higher rates and stronger Treasury yields.

This is a serious test for the yen. Recent Japanese data were solid: the Bank of Japan's core CPI for September was 2.4% versus a 1.9% forecast, and core CPI excluding fresh food was 2.1% on Friday. Yet the BOJ remains cautious. The market prices in roughly a 25% chance of a rate hike at the October 30 meeting, and until Governor Ueda gives clearer signals, USD/JPY will be driven mainly by U.S. data.

Today the key event is the Federal Reserve decision. The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.00%, and attention will focus on the statement and Kevin Warsh's press conference. As long as U.S. data remain strong and the Fed does not deliver dovish signals, the yen will struggle to regain losses against the dollar, and any rebounds are likely to be short-lived.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry around 158.01 (the green line on the chart), targeting 158.38 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.38, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip move from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.75 twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold area. That will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 158.01 and 158.38.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after 157.75 is refreshed (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. Sellers' key target is 157.44, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move from that level). Sellers can return at any moment — only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.01 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. That will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 157.75 and 157.44.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test at 1.3324 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the pound. However, the pair did not go on to a large advance.

Sterling could not withstand dollar pressure yesterday, even though it had previously looked like the most resilient currency. U.S. data proved too strong, which is bad news for the pound because it gives the Federal Reserve more reasons to tighten policy.

But today the pound faces its own shocks. Chancellor John Healey will present his first annual budget and autumn forecast, and his task is difficult: calm the gilt market without provoking revolt inside his own party. The Treasury is signaling caution — promising not to raise main taxes, ruling out an increase in capital-gains tax (a contentious issue for many MPs), and planning to fund temporary support for vulnerable households via the banking sector. The most painful decisions, including on defense and welfare, have been deferred.

There is reason to expect sterling to rise, however. If Healey presents a credible plan without creative accounting, gilt yields — which hit decade highs in early October — should continue to fall and investors could return to U.K. bonds. That would remove one of the main sources of pressure on the pound, especially with a Bank of England rate hike expected on November 5.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry around 1.3294 (the green line on the chart), targeting 1.3316 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3316, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35-pip move from that level). You can count on sterling rising today only after the budget situation becomes clear. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if it tests 1.3278 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a market reversal upward. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3294 and 1.3316.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after 1.3278 is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3250, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move from that level). Bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3294 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3278 and 1.3250.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test at 1.1143 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell about 20 pips.

The euro took a hit from the dollar yesterday, and the cause was not in Europe. The U.S. Conference Board consumer-confidence index for October jumped to 91.7 versus an 80.5 forecast and 84.2 in September — one of the biggest surprises in recent times. The current-situation subindex rose 8.6 points to 120.4, meaning Americans became noticeably more positive about the jobs market and the economy.

Today the euro again lacks support from European data. In the first half of the day, the only release is Germany's GfK consumer-confidence index, which looks one month ahead. Consensus is -30.1 after -30.6, and that small change is unlikely to alter the picture. By comparison, German household sentiment remains very weak, a view reinforced by high energy prices and 3.3% inflation in September.

With the week's main events looming, the euro is unlikely to rally strongly this morning. The Federal Reserve decision and Kevin Warsh's remarks tonight could set the dollar's direction, and tomorrow the European Central Bank meeting — expected to pause while stressing high inflation — will matter for the euro. With such major events ahead, I believe traders will avoid opening large euro positions.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: Today, it is possible to buy the euro around 1.1125 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1142. At 1.1142, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. You can count on the euro rising today, but only as part of a small correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today if 1.1113 is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1125 and 1.1142.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1113 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1089, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move from that level). Pressure on the pair will return if data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1125 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1113 and 1.1089.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

He made three main points, first, about price. He predicts Bitcoin will fall again to $57,000 over the next 12 months — roughly 29% below the current level — and ETF outflows will continue. Recall Bitcoin already dipped below $60,000 earlier this year, so he expects a retest of past lows. The second point concerns appeal: Bitcoin no longer attracts investors and, in his view, the network offers nothing beyond value-storage. The third point concerns the market of the future: artificial intelligence offers far greater growth opportunities, so investors should rotate from Bitcoin into that sector.

Michael Saylor promptly replied and did so briefly: "AI creates abundance. Bitcoin ensures scarcity. One expands humanity's ability to create value; the other preserves and transmits it across time and space. The world needs both," he wrote. Notably, Saylor does not dispute the price argument; he reframes the debate. For him, AI and Bitcoin are not competitors for capital but different tools, and he therefore rejects Calacanis's replacement thesis on principle.

The market provides ammunition for both sides. Recent weakness supports Calacanis's case: Bitcoin is heading for a roughly 4% monthly decline, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped from about 70 a month ago to a neutral ~48 today. Against it are other data points. Galaxy Digital research chief Alex Thorn says the bear market ended in June and only a weekly close below $76,540 should force a reassessment. In addition, U.S. spot ETFs now manage roughly $100.8 billion, JPMorgan Asset Management projects about 10% annualized return over a 10–15 year horizon, and the OCC is opening the market to stablecoin issuers.

I do not share the absolutist view that the prior peak will never be retested — such categorical forecasts typically ignore the arrival of institutional capital and the expansion of banking infrastructure around the market. But I do not dismiss the risk of another decline. In the coming days, everything will hinge on the Fed decision and the tone of the press conference; I expect that hawkish rhetoric could push the market to test $79,000, and the $76,540 level will be the key test of Galaxy's view versus Calacanis's forecast.

On Bitcoin

The price is near 80,900 in a range between support at 80,800 and resistance at 81,000, with outer reference points at 80,500 below and 81,500 above. The plan centers on two mirrored directions, each with a breakout and a bounce scenario.

I consider buying in two cases. If price breaks 81,000 to the upside and holds above it, I buy with a target of 81,500, provided price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; at the target, I take profit and consider a short on the pullback. If a break below 80,800 fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce, targeting 81,000 initially, then 81,500.

I structure selling symmetrically. If price breaks 80,800 to the downside and holds below it, I open a short with a target of 80,500, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 81,000 fails and price returns below, I sell the bounce with an initial target of 80,800 and then 80,500.

On Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range lies between support at 2,344 and resistance at 2,355, with outer reference points at 2,327 below and 2,372 above.

I buy a break of 2,355 to the upside with a hold above it, with a target of 2,372, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below 2,344 fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 2,355, then 2,372.

I sell a confirmed break below 2,344 with a target of 2,327, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 2,355 fails and price returns below, I sell the bounce, targeting 2,344 first, then 2,327.

I use both indicators as filters to cut off false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early; I make decisions only after price confirms the specified levels.

The GBP/USD pair continued to fall on Tuesday, despite no strong fundamental reasons for renewed dollar strength. The only event on Tuesday that could have boosted the dollar was the U.S. durable-goods report, which showed a 1.8% rise in September, slightly above the 1.5% forecast. However, the dollar strengthened throughout the day, not just after the release. In sterling's case, the recent decline appears to be a technical correction after a larger up move. We still expect the pound to strengthen at least toward 1.3650. We believe the fundamental backdrop this week and next should support the pound. Yet today the Federal Reserve will deliver a neutral decision, and the Bank of England is set to raise rates next week—yet the dollar has been rising. Thus sterling has traded more consistently and logically than the euro in recent weeks, but it still falls more often than it rises. As long as the sideways channels on the daily and weekly timeframes remain in place, we expect GBP/USD to move higher.

Technically, sterling continues to form a new uptrend. A correction is possible, but the pair must not drop below the Senkou Span B line—if it does, the uptrend can be considered invalidated. A trendline is not yet present because two clear extremes required to draw it are missing.

On the 5-minute timeframe, one buy signal formed on Tuesday. During the European session, price bounced from the 1.3301–1.3309 area but managed only a 16-pip rise. By the end of the day, longs could have been closed at breakeven.

COT report

COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated selling for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend persisting. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand remains high in 2026. The U.S.–Iran war is formally on pause but could resume soon. The Fed's changed monetary stance also supports the dollar, and the ascending trend line was breached; however, it was broken amid a flat, so we do not consider the uptrend complete.

In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. Trade tensions will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim, directly and indirectly, to weaken the U.S. currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (dated October 20), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,000 BUY contracts and closed 16,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 26,500 contracts over the week.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a logical, orderly uptrend, along with corrections against it. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the price cleared liquidity from recent lows and remained inside sideways channels. Therefore, one can expect the pound to rise at least to the 1.3650 level, the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. We don't need reasons for the pound's rise, just as we didn't need reasons for the dollar's rise over the past month and a half.

For October 28 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3277) and the Kijun-sen (1.3357) can also provide signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so traders should account for this when determining trading signals.

No important events or releases are scheduled in the UK today; in the U.S., the Fed meeting and Kevin Warsh's remarks will take place. Therefore, the main market moves are expected in the evening and overnight.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider 1.3277 and 1.3248 as targets for short positions if price holds below the 1.3301–1.3309 area. A rebound from the 1.3301–1.3309 area makes 1.3369–1.3377 targets for long positions.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each trader category.

The EUR/USD pair continued to fall on Tuesday, moving ever lower. Formally, the euro managed a correction of roughly 100–120 pips before the new decline. We view that move not as a real correction but as a shallow pullback, weak relative to the current fundamental and macro backdrop. We do not believe the euro has adequate reasons to fall almost without correction for two months. Yet the market clearly sees it differently and keeps selling EUR/USD.

This week is especially telling. The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve hold their penultimate meetings of the year, and both central banks are expected to deliver neutral decisions. Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen as if the ECB were preparing to cut rates while the Fed were preparing to raise them. That is the paradox of the current move: the market is interpreting events and news in the dollar's favor. The Middle East war has not even resumed, and given Donald Trump and the TACO principle, it might not. Protests in EU countries have also calmed somewhat, so the euro's fall cannot be blamed solely on that factor. As for macro news, one relatively important release this week supported the dollar, but the dollar's rise hasn't been confined to that single report.

Technically, the downtrend could be considered complete because the trend line was breached. Still, the market looks prepared to keep offloading euros for a couple more months in favor of dollars. Price sits below the Ichimoku lines, so for now the trend can again be treated as downward.

On the 5-minute TF, two sell signals formed on Tuesday. Price first broke the 1.1154–1.1165 area, then bounced off it from below, giving traders at least two opportunities to open short positions. The decline can continue during the day. Only toward the evening might we see a reversal or heightened volatility due to the Fed meeting.

COT report

The latest COT report is dated October 20. On the weekly TF, non-commercial traders' net position remains clearly bearish and has declined significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Over the past eight months, traders have been exiting the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar served as a reserve currency for a time.

However, we still do not see any fundamental factors that would further strengthen the U.S. dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar super-attractive for a while, and the Fed's monetary-policy stance surprised the dollar for the second time this year. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (the trend line), but the longer-term uptrend will remain relevant. Nevertheless, in recent weeks the market has priced in only positive factors for the dollar and ignored everything else.

The arrangement of the red and blue indicator lines points to the bears' advantage. During the last reporting week, long positions among the "Non-commercial" group rose by 3,500, while short positions increased by 500. Accordingly, the net position rose by 3,000 contracts over the week.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair finally has the opportunity to form an uptrend. If you also look at the daily and weekly timeframes, it becomes clear that the chances of a strong and lasting trend remain high. However, for the euro to rise, buyers must step in. Over the past two weeks, the market has shown no willingness to buy the euro. Therefore, based on market sentiment, we think a new decline is more likely, regardless of macroeconomics and fundamentals.

For October 28 we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1092, 1.1154–1.1165, 1.1221, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1191) and the Kijun-sen (1.1188). The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so account for this when determining trading signals. Remember to move your Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.

The key event on Wednesday is the Fed meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh's post-decision remarks. Although the decision is expected to be neutral, the dollar has risen for four consecutive days, and any comments from Warsh tonight may be interpreted as supportive of the U.S. currency.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider short positions near 1.1092, since price has held below the 1.1154–1.1165 area. If price rebounds from 1.1092, consider long positions at 1.1154–1.1165 and the Ichimoku lines.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each trader category.