The wave count on the four-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. There is still no question of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart) that began in January last year. On the contrary, we have seen a full corrective A-B-C structure, which has most likely been completed. We never saw a convincing wave 5 in C. This wave took a truncated form, which also happens from time to time. Let me remind you that classical wave structures are generally found only in textbooks. In real-life trading, traders and analysts should be more flexible in their analysis.

The wave count may once again develop into a more complex structure. Wave C may take a three-wave form, the wave that follows it would then be identified as wave D, and the entire trend segment that began on January 27 would take a five-wave corrective form, A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, wave D will take a three-wave form, and on August 21, EUR/USD entered the phase of forming wave E, whose low should be below the low of wave C at 1.1325. At the same time, however, this scenario is a backup scenario. Based on the news backdrop, I am more inclined toward the formation of a global upward wave and an upward trend segment.

The ECB Triggers a Mixed Market Reaction

The EUR/USD pair declined by 20 basis points during Thursday's session as of the time of writing this review. However, the important point is not the euro's 20-point decline. Twenty points is insignificant, especially against the backdrop of such an important event as a central bank meeting. What matters is the market's reaction to today's events. The first thing I want to note is the selling of the euro instead of buying. The second is the rather weak market reaction to an important event. The third is the rapid upward retracement in prices. Let us examine all three points in more detail.

Why did the market reduce demand for the euro if the ECB raised interest rates? There is nothing complicated about this. In the days leading up to the meeting, market participants were confident that the ECB would tighten monetary policy, so this scenario had already been priced in before the meeting. At the same time, even if it had been priced in, this does not mean that the euro should decline. Therefore, I believe that the euro will return to the 1.1650 level today.

The relatively weak market reaction can also be explained by market participants' preparedness for the regulator's decision. Inflation in the European Union has accelerated throughout 2026, while the EU leadership is not demanding that the ECB cut rates, as Donald Trump has been demanding of the Federal Reserve.

The rapid upward retracement in the euro is explained by the fact that although the market had priced in the policy tightening in advance, this is not a reason to sell the euro. The ECB has already carried out its second round of tightening this year and has also made it clear that inflation will continue to rise as the conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continue. Consequently, the current round of tightening will not be the last. So why should the euro decline?

General Conclusions

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair remains within a local upward trend segment. I would note that the trend segment that began in January of this year may still take an A-B-C-D-E form. If this assumption is correct, the decline in prices will resume, with targets below the low of wave C at 1.1325. However, I consider this scenario an alternative. I believe that the formation of a new upward trend segment began in June, which will bring the euro back to the 20th figure and take it considerably above that level. Therefore, I remain inclined toward buying, with targets above the 17th level.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment can be seen, followed by the formation of an A-B-C corrective structure. This structure may take a five-wave form, but at present I consider it complete. If so, the formation of a new impulsive upward trend segment has begun.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair declined for six days, but this week the bulls nevertheless launched a small attack. The attack has every chance of ending very quickly because, for example, the euro was declining today, and tomorrow, if the U.S. inflation report shows an increase compared with July, the pair's decline could well continue. However, tomorrow is still some way off, so today we will focus on today. A few hours ago, the ECB announced the expected decision to raise interest rates by 0.25%. This decision was accompanied by fairly active selling of the euro, which looks ambiguous. I understand that traders had plenty of time to price in the ECB's policy tightening. But if the Federal Reserve also tightens policy next week, will the dollar decline? After all, traders also had enough time to price in the most likely Fed scenario. I doubt it. The euro was fortunate to remain within imbalance 21 today, which preserves its chances of resuming its advance. In my view, traders had no reason whatsoever to sell the euro today, but the U.S. inflation report and the Fed meeting lie ahead. The information backdrop could once again change completely within a few days.

Overall, in my view, the information backdrop continues to support the bulls. First, any chart clearly shows that the euro began its rise from relatively low levels over the past year compared with the average price over the same period. This means that it still has upward potential. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what Warsh may say. Third, U.S. economic data has recently been disappointing in most cases. Fourth, geopolitics is no longer supporting the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB has carried out another monetary policy tightening in 2026. Sixth, the U.S. Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, which reduces demand for the dollar. Seventh, a trade war between the United States and Canada has officially begun. Eighth, the U.S. labor market in 2026 is performing only slightly better than in 2025, which could put an end to the market's hawkish expectations. Therefore, I currently see no reason whatsoever for a bearish advance.

U.S. labor-market data over the past 4–6 months have more often been weak than strong, inflation has slowed over the past two months, and GDP has also declined over the past three quarters. These three factors make me doubt that the FOMC will raise interest rates not only in September but also before the end of the year. In my view, the bears' only opportunity at present lies in a full-scale escalation in the Middle East, rather than in individual economic reports.

The current chart indicates that the bullish momentum is being maintained. The price has completely filled the latest bullish imbalance 21 and even touched the previous bullish imbalance 20. The combined reaction to these two patterns could bring the bulls back into the market, and the advance could resume. The bears will have a technical basis for an advance only if both patterns are invalidated. The euro also faces the task of saving the pound, which has no support zone of its own.

The economic backdrop on Thursday allowed the bulls to launch a new attack, as the ECB decided to tighten monetary policy. The U.S. Producer Price Index, by contrast, supported the U.S. currency, as it came in at 5.4% in August, above market expectations. However, I would note that tomorrow's inflation report is more important than the PPI. The PPI itself accelerated quite predictably.

There are still a huge number of reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, has not changed. At present, I see no significant factors supporting the U.S. currency, despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitics, which supported demand for the U.S. currency for most of the first half of 2026, is no longer doing so.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On September 11, the economic calendar contains two entries, of which U.S. inflation is the one that cannot be overlooked. The economic backdrop could affect market sentiment in the second half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that paused for an entire year. The information backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. In the long term, I would say that the pair is trading within a range. However, the range does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Therefore, the bulls may well continue their advance following the two liquidity sweeps in June and July. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support zone in the form of imbalance 21, while a buy signal has already formed within imbalance 20. I consider 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the targets for a new advance in the euro. However, it is important that the upcoming key reports and events do not support the dollar.

The GBP/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum, and at present the chart suggests that the pound may continue to decline. Yesterday and today, the price reacted to bearish imbalance 27, which allows traders to open short positions. This creates new, less favorable prospects for the pound. Unfortunately for the pound, further declines are indeed possible. According to analysts, U.S. inflation may accelerate in August, and this could become known as early as tomorrow. Let me remind you that official forecasts point to inflation remaining at 3.4%, but how often do forecasts coincide with the actual figure? Therefore, I consider it quite possible that the U.S. Consumer Price Index will increase, in which case the market will become even more convinced that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy next week. And if the market becomes more convinced of this, it will continue buying the dollar. In this case, the pound's decline will continue, while it remains unclear whether the Bank of England, which may also adopt a more hawkish stance than previously, will be able to support the pound. I would also note that higher U.S. inflation would appear entirely logical, as oil rose above the $100 mark this week.

Over the past month, the dollar has faced numerous adverse factors, including the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks, weak monthly Nonfarm Payrolls reports, a weak annual Nonfarm Payrolls report, a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index, slower GDP growth, and reduced market expectations for tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The dollar was supported only by the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report (for the first time in a long while) and the ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, the U.S. inflation report could provide support for the dollar, while next week, a hypothetical tightening by the Federal Reserve could do the same.

Do the bears have prospects at the present time? In my view, they are limited, but it should be acknowledged that the dollar is entering a more favorable period. If U.S. inflation rises following the strong Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM reports, and the Federal Reserve nevertheless decides to raise interest rates, the information backdrop for the dollar will become much more favorable. I do not believe that this would trigger a prolonged decline in GBP/USD. However, the U.S. currency could show some gains.

Geopolitics is no longer providing favorable support for the dollar. Talks between the United States and Iran have failed once again and are no longer taking place. From time to time, Iran and the United States exchange strikes, threats, and ultimatums, which has had no effect on resolving the conflict or ending the war. No one can currently predict how much longer the conflict will continue. The dollar cannot count on market support every time the two sides exchange strikes, which are occurring with considerable regularity.

Technical analysis shows that the picture changed from bullish to bearish within just a few days after liquidity was taken from the May highs. The euro may stop the pound's decline, but at present the bears have two imbalances, one of which has already provided a sell signal. Since the euro has a higher status than the pound within the euro-pound pair, I believe the pound's decline may be short-lived. However, two events could turn the market against both the euro and the pound in the near future: the Federal Reserve meeting and the U.S. inflation report.

The economic news backdrop on Thursday was rather weak and clearly did not affect traders' sentiment. Ahead of the announcement of the ECB meeting outcome, the bears went on the offensive, and the decline continued for most of the day. Nevertheless, the ECB adopted a hawkish decision, while the result of tomorrow's U.S. inflation report remains unknown. At present, the bears cannot count on a prolonged advance.

The overall information backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I cannot expect anything other than a decline in the U.S. currency. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my long-term expectations. Geopolitics prompted the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The prospects for tighter FOMC monetary policy remain uncertain, while the market is constantly changing its own expectations. Therefore, in my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I would also note that GBP/USD has been trading within a range for an entire year. A range allows traders to expect virtually any movement within its boundaries. Traders have so far been unable to break out of the range.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Change in GDP (06:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Change in industrial production (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The September 11 economic calendar contains four entries, among which I would highlight U.S. inflation, on which traders' sentiment currently depends to a significant extent. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment could be strong on Friday.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity was taken from the two latest swings and a series of buy signals was formed, the bulls may still continue their advance. Unfortunately, however, the bears have controlled the initiative in recent weeks, and all recent bullish patterns have been invalidated. The euro may save the pound from a decline if the two latest bullish imbalances are not invalidated. The liquidity sweep from the May 1 swing allowed the decline to begin; a sell signal formed within inverted imbalance 27, and another bearish signal formed within imbalance 27 this week. Therefore, either the European patterns or the British patterns must be invalidated. I lean toward the British imbalances being invalidated, but the information backdrop can produce surprises. Final conclusions can be drawn tomorrow and next Wednesday.

The US dollar index is under pressure from a complex mix of factors: yen strength, uncertainty about Fed policy, and the consequences of the Treasury's bond-buyback program. Key inflation releases this week will determine the index's path, as we argued in our fundamental analysis and in the note "Dollar (USDX) trades near four-month lows."

The technical picture for USDX remains predominantly bearish. The index trades in a mid- and long-term bear regime, below key moving averages (50-, 144-, and 200-period), while indicators are approaching oversold territory, indicating persistent seller pressure.

Indicators: RSI (14) at about 41 is below the neutral 50 mark, signaling ongoing bearish pressure; Stochastic has entered oversold territory and, together with OsMA, produces a sell signal.

The nearest resistance level sits at 99.00 (psychological level and H1 EMA200). Long entries are considered on a sustained break above 99.20, with targets at 99.40–100.00 and a stop-loss below 98.60.

Conditions for a bullish scenario

- A sustained break and hold above 99.20, confirmed by indicators (RSI above 50, bullish OsMA).

- High PPI and CPI prints that cement hawkish Fed expectations.

- Easing yen pressure or reduction in geopolitical tensions.

A bearish scenario suggests a break of near support at 98.68 (today's low) would likely trigger fresh short positions targeting 98.00, 97.80 (monthly EMA144), and 97.60. A break below 96.20–95.50 would confirm a structural shift and a transition of USDX into a global bear market.

Conditions for a bearish scenario

- A break and hold below 98.68–98.60, opening the way to 98.00 and 97.80.

- Moderate inflation prints that reduce the chance of a Fed hike.

- Continued yen strength and rising odds of BOJ tightening.

The main scenario: consolidation in 98.60–99.20 into inflation prints, with a possible test of 98.68–98.60 and rebound to 99.00 on positive PPI. ING sees no strong reasons for an immediate breach of USDX support in the 98.55–98.65 band but warns that a break could quickly send the index to 98.00.

Reasoning

- USDX is under pressure from factors that offset the dollar's usual safe-haven advantages. The talk of dollar debasement after the Treasury announced buybacks has undermined confidence in the currency. At the same time, a unwind of yen-funded carry trades amid expectations of faster BOJ tightening exerts additional downward pressure on the dollar.

- MUFG notes that higher energy prices increase the likelihood of further Fed tightening, while the 2-year Treasury yield has reached its yearly high. Yet the dollar has not fully reflected higher yields and oil because of an elevated political risk premium.

- The key driver will be inflation prints: above-consensus PPI/CPI will strengthen the Fed's hawkish expectations and may trigger a USDX bounce to 99.20–99.50 and higher. Moderate prints will strengthen the bear case and bring USDX back to test 98.68–98.60 and below.

Trading scenarios

- Bullish scenario (break resistance): Buy stop 99.20. Stop-loss 98.60. Targets: 99.40, 99.50, 99.60, 99.70, 99.80, 100.00, 100.15, 100.40, 100.80, 101.00.

- Bearish scenario (break support): Sell stop 98.60. Stop-loss 99.20. Targets: 98.40, 98.25, 98.00, 97.80, 97.65, 97.40, 97.00, 96.20.

Notes: "Targets" correspond to S/R levels and are guides for planning and position sizing; they are not guaranteed to be reached.

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The USD/CAD pair is consolidating just above the round 1.3800 level after failing to extend the modest advance recorded earlier. Traders are taking a wait-and-see stance, preferring to await upcoming US inflation data before committing to directional trades.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today during the North American session, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for Friday. These key releases will be closely scrutinized for signals about potential further action by the Federal Reserve, which in turn will materially affect dollar demand and could provide USD/CAD with a renewed impulse.

Meanwhile, markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting. Inflationary risks tied to persistently elevated energy prices are also reinforcing expectations of further Fed tightening. These factors, together with rising tensions between the US and Iran, have supported the US dollar's safe-haven bid.

Following recent Middle East developments, Iran attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after the US reported it had disabled five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Khark Island. That raises concerns about potential prolonged supply disruptions, which supports oil prices and drives them toward a fresh three-month high — a dynamic that in turn bolsters the Canadian dollar.

At the same time, US Treasury yields remain elevated after the Treasury announced a plan to buy back 10- to 20-year bonds for up to $6 billion, which appears to have disappointed investors. Higher yields add to the dollar's modest appreciation, although elevated oil prices continue to support the commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar and limit further gains in USD/CAD.

From a technical viewpoint, USD/CAD retains a bearish bias, trading below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Being below this long-term average suggests that rallies are likely corrective, and the overall technical picture points to continued downside risk unless buyers can push the currency pair back above the round 1.3900 level.

A decisive break and close below the August low would be a new bearish signal and pave the way for continuation of the sustained downtrend that has prevailed over the past two months. Oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage.

On Thursday, USD/JPY shows a modest recovery, trading just above 153.50, while bears remain cautious ahead of US inflation prints. Spot quotes, however, remain close to the seven-month low recorded earlier this week as markets aggressively reassess the Bank of Japan's turn toward a tighter stance, which continues to support the yen.

At this point, market participants appear to have fully priced in a 25?bp BOJ rate hike at the September 17–18 meeting and a high probability of a follow-up move in December. Expectations strengthened markedly after influential BOJ hawks such as Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura called for faster, more flexible interest rate increases to combat rising inflation. Revised GDP prints and clear wage growth have further bolstered the central bank's normalization path, supporting the yen and capping USD/JPY upside.

On the other hand, the US dollar has recovered slightly from a near-three-week low hit on Wednesday as sellers take a wait-and-see stance ahead of today's US Producer Price Index (PPI) release. Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be closely analyzed by the market for additional clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves.

At the same time, rising odds of a September Fed hike, driven by inflation risks from higher energy prices and escalating US–Iran tensions, support the dollar and the USD/JPY pair. Against the backdrop of the Middle East crisis, Iran reported attacks on 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for reports that the US sank five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island.

Additionally, Iran launched a missile strike against US forces stationed at Al-Azraq base in Jordan. US President Donald Trump added that the conflict with Iran would end after the November midterm elections. This factor supports a higher geopolitical risk premium and may deter dollar bulls from opening aggressive positions, which in turn could limit USD/JPY upside.

From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY remains clearly under bearish pressure, trading well below the 200-day SMA. Consolidation below the round level of 153.00 could become a fresh sell signal and open the way to further declines as spot prices search for a more reliable support base. Momentum oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage. However, the relative strength index sits in oversold territory, indicating a correction.

Wednesday's biggest outflow came from ARKB (ARK 21Shares) with $78 million, followed by GBTC (Grayscale) with $27.2 million and IBIT (BlackRock) with $19.5 million. The only fund in positive territory was MSBT (Morgan Stanley), which added $4.5 million — a win for Morgan Stanley, showing resilience amid broad negativity, but damaging to the image of larger rivals whose clients preferred to exit positions at this moment.

Wednesday extended Tuesday's $46.6 million outflow, making these two sessions the first back-to-back episode of outflows since the three-day outflow streak ended on August 14. Over the two days, GBTC lost $92.7 million, while ARKB and IBIT recorded net redemptions of $69.9 million and $8.8 million, respectively.

More interesting is the divergence between Bitcoin and other assets. Ether ETFs attracted $34.7 million on Wednesday after $24.3 million of outflows on Tuesday, leaving them up $10.4 million for the week. Solana ETFs also reversed, adding $11.2 million after a $0.7 million outflow.

The exception to this recovery was Hyperliquid ETFs, which lost $5.3 million on Wednesday after $13 million of outflows on Tuesday, bringing the category's total weekly outflow to $18.3 million.

In my view, this selective dynamic — outflows from Bitcoin alongside reversals into Ethereum and Solana — looks more like targeted profit-taking after a strong rally than a change in overall market sentiment. I expect that if Bitcoin holds above $78,000 in the remaining days of the shortened week, outflows from its funds will likely slow, following the reversals already seen in Ether and Solana.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $78,500, which would open a direct path to $80,200 and then to $81,900; breaking above $81,900 would signal attempts to resume a bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $77,200. A return below that area could quickly push BTC toward $75,300. The furthest downside target is around $72,800.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,523 opens a direct path to $2,573. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,624; breaking above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,454. A drop back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,385. The furthest downside target is around $2,320.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

Global equity markets remain on edge. Following declines in the United States, Asian exchanges also closed lower. The main trigger was oil, which traded up near $102 per barrel during the session, fueling investor fears of rising inflation. Against this backdrop, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remained close to recent highs around 4.85%.

The most telling development was a near-fiasco for the US Treasury: the plan to buy $6 billion of long-dated Treasuries failed to calm the market and instead disappointed investors. Where earlier interventions produced short-lived relief, this tool now appears to be running out of effectiveness. The episode bolsters skeptics' arguments that one-off technical fixes cannot solve systemic fiscal issues and that the Treasury's toolkit is rapidly dwindling. Follow the link for more details.

Debt storm and oil at $101: why AI keeps market from collapsing

The US government bond market appears to have tested the Treasury's mettle: the $6 billion buyback did not soothe investors and instead helped push 10-year yields to their highest levels since 2023. The psychological 5% threshold now looms. A break above it could create material problems for the economy. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and attacks on energy infrastructure are compounding the stress, driving Brent above $101/bbl.

Despite this macro storm, the S&P 500 has shown surprising resilience. The explanation is artificial intelligence. Relentless demand for AI technologies and massive investment in the sector are acting as a protective shield for tech giants. As long as Wall Street believes in an ongoing funding cycle for neural network deployments, rising borrowing costs and geopolitical risks are taking a back seat, keeping equities from collapsing. Follow the link for more details.

Dollar under pressure as bears test 4-month lows

The US dollar continues to weaken amid a firmer yen, Fed policy uncertainty, and the Treasury's buyback program. Markets are now holding their breath for fresh inflation prints that should clarify the outlook and set the direction for the coming weeks. The technical picture remains negative. The index is in a steady downtrend, trading below all major moving averages, though indicators are approaching oversold territory, leaving room for a short-term defensive bounce.

A decisive break above the resistance level of 99.20, especially if accompanied by hawkish price data, would open the door for bulls toward the psychological 100.00 level. Conversely, a drop below the support level of 98.68 would give bears the green light to target 97.80 and 97.60, while a break of the 96.20 zone would cement a full-blown bear market in the dollar. Follow the link for more details.

Yen gains, dollar resists: key catalysts for USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading near seven-month lows, slightly above 153.50, as the yen gains on expectations of aggressive action from the Bank of Japan. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-bp hike at the upcoming September meeting and a likely follow-on move in December. The push is supported not only by hawkish voices within the Bank of Japan but also by solid wage growth and favorable macro releases.

Still, the dollar is showing resilience and has started a cautious recovery. Investors are braced for US inflation prints (PPI and CPI), which will be key to shaping Fed policy. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, including tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, is adding upward pressure to energy prices, stoking inflation fears and providing support to the dollar, preventing USD/JPY from extending its decline. Follow the link for more details.

USD/CAD braces for storm: inflation vs. oil

USD/CAD is holding just above 1.3800 as traders have taken a wait-and-see position ahead of key US inflation releases. This week's PPI and CPI readings will be the market's main guideposts. They will determine how aggressively the Fed might tighten monetary policy at its September meeting. Investors are currently pricing in a high probability of further tightening, and elevated US Treasury yields are providing clear support to the dollar.

Geopolitics adds another layer. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil to three-month highs. That dynamic creates a tug-of-war for USD/CAD: on one hand, global risk and safe-haven flows favor the dollar; on the other hand, higher oil prices tend to bolster the Canadian dollar. The result is choppy trading and limited upside for USD/CAD until the inflation prints provide a clearer directional signal. Follow the link for more details.

The price test of 153.72 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Apparently, currency interventions have been put on hold, as the U.S. dollar recovered quite strongly against the yen during European trading today. As a reminder, in the second half of the day, market attention will be divided between the ECB meeting and U.S. economic data. For USD/JPY, the key releases will be the Producer Price Index and its core version, existing home sales, and initial jobless claims. The PPI serves as an early indicator of inflation, so if it comes in above forecasts, demand for the dollar may increase, leading to another rise in the pair. However, it is important to keep the current market situation in mind. In the opposite scenario, with low inflation, dollar weakness could instead lead to another strengthening of the yen. Nevertheless, without currency intervention, the pair is more likely to continue its gradual recovery, as major yen buyers are unlikely to become active before tomorrow's Consumer Price Index data.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 154.28 is reached (the green line on the chart), with a target of 155.06 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.06, I will close the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from the level. The pair may rise today, but the upside potential is relatively limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 153.92 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 154.28 and 155.06 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 153.92 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.10, where I will close the short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.28 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 153.92 and 153.10 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test of 1.3549 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move down from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for a short position on the pound was appropriate and resulting in a 20-point decline in the pair.

The pressure on GBP/USD ahead of an important U.S. data release is understandable. Before such data are released, market activity traditionally declines, and traders tend to take profits. In the second half of the day, the focus will be on the U.S. Producer Price Index and its core version, excluding food and energy. This indicator reflects price pressures at the production stage, before they reach consumers, and is therefore considered a leading indicator of inflation. The previous PPI reading already indicated that price pressures were persisting. Following Waller's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, where the Fed clearly emphasized the importance of containing inflation, such data releases are receiving particular attention.

Essentially, today's PPI is only an initial indicator ahead of tomorrow's consumer inflation report, which could influence the central bank's policy outlook in either direction. Data on existing home sales and initial jobless claims will also be released, but I consider them secondary and do not expect them to have a significant impact on the dollar. For the pound, which currently lacks its own major drivers, this means that it will remain dependent on external market factors.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point around 1.3546 is reached (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3600 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3600, I will close the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from the level. The pound can be expected to rise today only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3513 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3546 and 1.3600 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3513 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3472, where I will close the short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return if U.S. economic data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3546 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3513 and 1.3472 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test of 1.1629 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

The August report confirmed an acceleration in German inflation to 2.9% year-on-year, and the preliminary estimate was fully confirmed. However, a closer look at the structure shows that the increase is driven entirely by energy prices rather than by broad-based price growth. In my view, this is an important factor, as this inflationary increase is driven by external rather than domestic factors. It is worth noting that household electricity, gas, and heating bills even declined compared with last year due to government measures, while only high gasoline prices are pushing the overall figure higher. In other words, the authorities have measures to contain utility tariffs, but not fuel prices. For the ECB, which is raising its rate to 2.5% today, this is another reminder that the energy factor continues to put pressure on inflation.

Clearly, the euro will face a busy second half of the day, as in addition to the ECB's own meeting, the market will receive important U.S. data on producer prices, existing home sales, and initial jobless claims. The Producer Price Index reflects inflation at an earlier stage, before prices reach consumers, and therefore a deviation from the forecast could significantly alter expectations regarding Fed policy. This is particularly interesting to me given that the dollar has looked weak recently and has shown little reaction to economic data.

The outlook for the single currency is as follows: if U.S. inflation comes in above forecasts, demand for the dollar may return, limiting the upward potential of EUR/USD. However, the ECB and Lagarde's tone will primarily determine the pair's direction today, while U.S. data will be a secondary factor. I believe that if inflation data are soft and the central bank sends hawkish signals, the euro will have a good chance of rising, while strong PPI data could allow the dollar to recover some of its recent losses.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1639 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1675. At 1.1675, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1616 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1639 and 1.1675 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1616 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1584, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1639 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1616 and 1.1584 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line indicates – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.

The wording reveals growing nervousness within the administration, since such public appeals typically appear when the outcome of a vote looks uncertain rather than a foregone conclusion in favor of the bill.

The statement came a week after the National Sheriffs' Association withdrew its opposition to the crypto-market structure bill, shifting to a neutral stance on September 3. That helps CLARITY Act supporters by removing one law-enforcement voice from the opposition, but it does not resolve the deeper problem: the banking industry and a majority of Democrats continue to insist the bill would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without meeting the same requirements applied to banks. This confrontation is why forecasts for the bill's odds of passage in 2026 have been repeatedly revised downward in recent months.

Does the sheriffs' neutrality signal a turnaround in negotiations? Not yet — the bill already cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, but it ran into resistance there that has not been overcome in the intervening months. In my view, Galaxy's collapse in its probability estimate from 75% to 10% speaks far more eloquently about the real balance of power than any public appeals by Bessent, and I wouldn't rule out that even securing a procedural vote — which the secretary is calling for — may not guarantee the bill's substantive passage within the remaining time.

Current technical picture for the crypto market

Bitcoin is holding in a tight range, and the trading plan is built around two mirror directions with two entry options each. A confirmed breakout above $78,200 opens a buy targeting $79,100, where it makes sense to take profits and consider a short on a pullback. The entry condition is mandatory: price must remain above the 50-day moving average confirming the bullish backdrop, and the Awesome Oscillator must be in positive territory. The second buy scenario trades the rebound: if price approaches $77,700 but a break lower fails to follow through, treat it as a false breakout and open a long targeting $78,200 and then $79,100.

Sell positions are structured in the opposite direction. A confirmed break below $77,700 enables a short position with a target at $76,900; conditions are mirrored (moving average above price and Awesome below zero). The second sell scenario trades the rejection: if price nears $78,200 but an upside breakout is not confirmed, go short with targets first at $77,700 and then $76,900.

Ethereum follows the same logic on its own price scale. A breakout above $2,474 signals a buy targeting $2,494, under the same conditions (rising moving average below price and Awesome positive). The second buy scenario trades the bounce at $2,460 if a break below is not confirmed, targeting $2,474 and then $2,494.

Sell setups begin on a confirmed break below $2,460 with a target at $2,445, provided price is below the moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is negative. The second short works off a rejection at $2,474 if an upside breakout fails, targeting $2,460 and then $2,445. Both indicators serve only as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone pre-entry signals, so trades should be executed only after price confirms the specified levels.

The morning brought the final estimate of German inflation for August, which confirmed the preliminary figures. Annual price growth accelerated to 2.9%. The acceleration itself was modest; the more important issue is its cause. Destatis directly identified higher energy prices as the main factor, with their increase linked to the war in Iran. This is most evident in motor fuel prices. Overall, the energy component increased by more than 10% year on year, recording its strongest growth in more than three years.

Therefore, German inflation is currently driven largely by energy prices, as the authorities have limited tools to influence gasoline prices. For the central bank, which is raising its interest rate to 2.5% at today's meeting in Berlin, this is further confirmation that the energy shock has not disappeared. With Brent above $100, September's figures could be even higher, which supports a tighter policy stance and, consequently, the euro.

Now let us turn to what I also consider to be the main topic of the day. In addition to the ECB meeting, the U.S. Producer Price Index will be released in the afternoon, and the forecasts are concerning. Analysts expect monthly growth of 0.4%, compared with no change in July, while annual growth is expected to reach 5.3%, up from 4.2% a month earlier. This is not a minor adjustment but an increase of more than one percentage point in a single month.

Let me explain why this is important for a beginner. The Producer Price Index shows how much the prices of goods increase at the production stage, before they reach stores. Companies do not fully absorb these higher costs and instead pass them on to consumers with a delay of several months. Therefore, producer-price inflation serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. If tomorrow's consumer-price report confirms this trend, expectations of a Fed pause may have to be postponed for a considerable period.

Existing home sales and weekly initial unemployment claims will also be released alongside the PPI, but given the inflation forecast, they will be of secondary importance.

The outlook for the euro and pound is mixed. The dollar has recently appeared weak due to interventions, and if the inflation figures exceed expectations, demand for the U.S. currency will return, putting both European currency pairs under pressure. A weaker-than-expected result, by contrast, would further weaken the dollar and allow the euro and pound to rise. There is one important detail to consider. The forecast is already priced in, and the market expects strong figures. Therefore, the reaction will be determined not by the fact that inflation is rising itself, but by the deviation from the forecast. Even an annual reading of 5.0% against expectations of 5.3% would technically still represent a significant increase, but it would be disappointing for the dollar.

Momentum

For the euro, I am watching 1.1640 on the upside. A breakout would open the way toward 1.1673 and then 1.1690. This scenario is valid if the ECB press conference takes a hawkish tone and the U.S. PPI comes in below expectations. On the other hand, the key level is 1.1620, a break below which would lead to 1.1590 and 1.1568. This scenario becomes the primary one if producer-price inflation exceeds expectations, as the dollar would then receive the positive catalyst it has lacked throughout the week.

I do not recommend entering trades based on the first candle in either case. The day is packed with events, and the initial market reaction may be followed by a move in the opposite direction within ten minutes. I would wait for consolidation beyond the level.

For the pound, the upside level is 1.3555, with targets at 1.3596 and 1.3620. On the downside, the key level is 1.3530, with targets at 1.3505 and 1.3480. The British currency has no significant domestic catalyst of its own, so its direction will be determined by the dollar, making U.S. economic data more important than the European meeting in this case.

Mean Reversion

For the euro, the upper boundary is 1.1661. I will look for selling opportunities after an attempt to consolidate above this level fails and the price returns below it. Note that this level is significantly above the breakout point, meaning that the pair can reach it only after a strong move. Such a move today would be possible only if the central bank uses hawkish language. Therefore, selling at this level would effectively mean expecting the initial market reaction to the press conference to be excessive. The lower level is 1.1612, which is traded using the opposite approach: buying after an unsuccessful break below the level. This scenario is likely if the PPI comes in strong, the dollar rises sharply, and the market subsequently begins to take profits ahead of tomorrow's consumer-price report.

For the pound, the upper level is 1.3555, and there is an important detail that should be considered separately. It coincides with the breakout level, creating a zone in which two scenarios produce opposite signals. The same price area can generate different signals depending on subsequent price behavior. If the pound moves above the level and holds there firmly, the breakout scenario is valid, and I would target 1.3596. If the move above the level is brief and the price falls back below it, the mean-reversion scenario becomes valid, and I would look for selling opportunities. The difference depends entirely on the price behavior after the level is reached, so it is more reasonable to avoid the initial reaction in this zone and wait for confirmation.

The lower boundary for the pound is 1.3530, and the same issue of its overlap with the breakout point applies here. The logic is reversed. A brief break below the level followed by a quick return to it would provide an opportunity to buy, targeting a move back into the range, while consolidation below the level would activate the breakout scenario, with targets at 1.3505 and 1.3480. In both cases, I would place the stop beyond the extreme point of the breakout rather than near a nearby round number, as obvious levels often attract a large number of market participants. Today, I would apply mean-reversion scenarios to the pound more cautiously than usual, because the move following the PPI release could be a genuine breakout rather than a false one.

On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) failed to continue its recovery above the $4,400 level. At the same time, the metal is holding firmly above the weekly low established on Wednesday, as investors are closely awaiting the release of U.S. inflation data. Later today, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. These data will be important indicators for assessing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future monetary policy, which will inevitably affect U.S. dollar prices and provide new momentum for gold price movements.

The release of August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this Friday will be a key factor determining the Fed's interest rate decision on September 16. High CPI readings would virtually guarantee a rate hike in September and strengthen the dollar, while lower readings could strengthen the case for keeping the rate unchanged and make the dollar vulnerable to shifts in market expectations toward a more accommodative Fed policy.At the same time, the market has priced in an approximately 60% probability of a rate hike by the U.S. central bank at the upcoming September 15–16 meeting. These expectations strengthened following the release of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which came in above forecasts. In addition, inflation risks associated with persistently high energy costs are increasing the likelihood of faster monetary policy tightening by the Fed.

In particular, oil prices reached a new three-month high today amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Recent events, such as Iran's attack on 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. statements that five Iranian oil tankers had been sunk in the Gulf of Oman, are increasing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East and continuing to support oil prices. This, in turn, strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy by other major central banks. Traders have already fully priced in the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB), whose decision will be announced today, and by the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also considering the possibility of raising rates at the end of the month. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields remain high due to market disappointment with the U.S. Treasury Department's announcement of plans to buy back up to $6 billion of Treasury securities with maturities of 10 to 20 years, compared with the previously planned $2 billion. Market expectations were for at least $10 billion.

The strengthening Japanese yen, driven by expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan, is also limiting bullish momentum in USD/JPY, which in turn supports the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold is holding above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) but below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), resulting in neutral price dynamics with signs of slowing growth. The oscillators are mixed, indicating a lack of a clear direction for XAU/USD. Resistance: $4,450. Support: the 100-day SMA.

Thursday brought the long-awaited revival to the precious?metals market. Gold, as if sensing weakness in the US dollar, moved back toward the psychologically important $4,420 per ounce mark. But early bulls should not celebrate yet: inflation reports due this week could be decisive for Fed policy, and the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop remains unsettled.

By Thursday morning, spot gold (XAU/USD) had gained 0.4%, trading at $4,418.87. Futures also posted modest gains to $4,461.82. Silver (XAG/USD) looked firmer, jumping 0.5% to $67.62, while platinum (XPT/USD) slipped to $1,889.34. The dollar index (DXY) meanwhile gave ground, easing to 98.74.

Why hasn't gold blasted off? The answer lies in US Treasury yields. An attempt by the government to buy $6 billion of long?dated debt did not save the market — yields moved higher. For gold, which pays no interest, rising yields are always something of a cold shower.

Commodity markets are adding to the nervousness. Brent crude crossed the $100/barrel psychological barrier for the first time since July, forcing investors to recall inflation risks.

Geopolitics is also keeping markets on edge. The Middle East conflict has entered its seventh month. Tehran has openly warned that if attacks on Iranian territory and infrastructure by the US continue, the region could see an escalation of even greater intensity. Investors must balance the long?term desire to "hide" capital in gold against near?term risks.

All eyes are now on the data calendar. Thursday brings the Producer Price Index (PPI), and Friday the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These reads will be the Fed's primary test. Market odds already price roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will raise the policy rate this month.

IG senior market analyst Tony Sycamore notes a paradoxical picture: gold rose to $4,402 overnight almost entirely on dollar weakness, despite the surge in bond yields.

However, Sycamore says the metal needs to clear the 200?day moving average around $4,537 to confirm a reversal and return to a broad uptrend (after the pullback from the $4,697 high).

While retail traders calculate bond yields, market makers are buying physical gold. According to the World Gold Council, August was historic: global gold ETFs attracted $18 billion (the second?largest inflow on record).

Physical holdings rose by 121 tonnes to an unprecedented 4,189 tonnes, and total assets under management jumped 16% to $615 billion. European funds posted an all?time record inflow, while North American funds recorded the third?largest inflow in history. Clearly, smart money is betting on the yellow metal.

CryptoQuant analysts say Bitcoin will struggle to push materially higher in the current environment. They identify the $82,000–83,000 band as key resistance that requires renewed investor participation and materially higher spot demand to overcome. That band contains the CHOCH level—where liquidity could be taken—and the last unfilled bearish FVG, which could trigger a new leg lower within the prevailing downtrend. We therefore agree that clearing $82k–83k will be difficult for Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant also notes that spot demand on exchanges remains weak: outright buying without leverage or derivatives is insufficient to fuel a fresh impulse. Large players continue to accumulate on balance sheets, while retail traders are reducing exposure. The core problem for Bitcoin in 2026 is precisely low spot demand and a flow of capital and mining capacity into the AI sector. Interest in Bitcoin is waning, reflected in a lower willingness by investors to buy the token. For these reasons we still see no structural case for a fresh four?year bull market.

Trading recommendations — BTC/USD

Bitcoin remains in a downtrend despite last week's strong rally. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three?year uptrend), although that level has effectively been tested already. We do not believe the downtrend is over. The recent rise looks weak as a corrective move and resembles a pump rather than a healthy retracement—not a convincing signal to open long positions. Liquidity may be taken from the $82,850 high, which could trigger a renewed downward leg and confirm a shift to sideways trading. On the 4?hour chart a fresh drop is possible after a second liquidity grab at the recent highs (a deviation). We think a fall to $75,500 is quite likely this week.

Trading recommendations — ETH/USD

On the daily time frame the technical picture for Ether changed materially in a few days: Ether may be starting a new uptrend. However, traders should use the weekly chart as the reference: Ether could head toward $4,800, the upper boundary of a five?year sideways channel. On the daily chart the nearest bearish FVG has been worked off, but that FVG belongs to the prior trend, and any reaction is likely to be corrective. We also note liquidity taken at the April 17 high and liquidity events on the 4?hour chart; Bitcoin has similarly taken liquidity on the 4?hour. Thus, a correction is likely, and a 4?hour flat has formed for either. Within that flat, internal patterns are of limited value; in the near term, expect a move toward the lower boundary of the flat.

Illustration notes

CHOCH—change of character or a break in trend structure.

Liquidity—stop losses, pending orders, and other liquidity used by market makers to accumulate positions.

FVG— an area of price inefficiency where price moves fast because one side is absent; price later tends to return and react in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG—inverted fair?value gap. On return to such an area, the price does not react but instead breaks impulsively and then retests from the other side.

OB—order block: a candle where a market maker entered to take liquidity and form a position in the opposite direction.

The token peaked at $190.81 just two minutes after launch, implying a fully diluted valuation of about $144 billion against a liquidity pool of only $48,000. That gulf between the paper valuation and real tradable liquidity predetermined the subsequent collapse: LAPTOP lost roughly 90% of its value in 30 minutes and was trading around $4.77 an hour after launch. By evening the price had stabilized near $1.97—a fall of almost 99% from the intraday high—yet that was enough for a market capitalization of $780 million and a fully diluted valuation of $2.2 billion, putting the token among the top-100 crypto assets by market value.

Who profited and who lost? One wallet withdrew $249,800 from Binance before launch, bought 9,124 LAPTOP tokens, and sold most of the position within minutes for roughly $1.18 million. Another trader spent about $200,000 to buy 919 tokens at roughly $218 each; an hour later that position was worth less than $3,000. That outcome benefits only those who entered and exited in the first seconds after listing and devastates the vast majority of retail buyers who chased the hype later.

The LAPTOP launch trajectory closely mirrors the fates of the two most prominent political memecoins before it. The TRUMP token associated with Donald Trump peaked near $75 shortly after its January 2025 launch and now trades around $2.24—a roughly 97% decline from its high that has inflicted estimated paper losses of $3.81 billion across nearly one million holders.

In my view, the LAPTOP episode confirms that political name recognition fuels only the first minutes of frenzy and is not a guarantee of long-term value. I would not be surprised if LAPTOP's path follows TRUMP and Melania tokens: a slow fade toward near-zero after the first wave of speculators has taken profits.

Trading recommendations:

A technical outlook for Bitcoin unveils that buyers are targeting a return to $78,500, which opens a direct path to $80,200 and then to $81,900; a breach of that level would signal attempts to reclaim the bull market. On weakness, expect buyers at $77,200; a move back below that area could quickly drag BTC toward $75,300. A farther downside target is $72,800.

A technical outlook for Ethereum suggests that a confirmed hold above $2,523 opens a direct path to $2,573. The farther target is near $2,624; a break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, expect buyers at $2,454; a drop below that area can quickly push ETH toward $2,385. The farthest downside target is $2,320.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

This increase will be the second since the onset of the Iran war, which has driven up energy prices, and it will cement the ECB's status as the most hawkish G7 central bank. Inflation in the euro area has already topped 3%, near a nearly three-year high, and no substantial retreat is expected in the months ahead. Recall that the ECB raised rates in June independently of the Fed and the Bank of England.

The real intrigue, however, is not the decision itself but what comes next. Markets price two or more additional hikes, while economists remain skeptical. Goldman Sachs sees a near-term rise this week as likely but notes huge uncertainty over the outlook and signs of division on the Governing Council.

That division has become public and centers on the question of where neutrality ends. Gediminas Shimkus of Lithuania said a rise to 2.5% would be insufficient to return inflation to 2%, citing stronger growth. Executive Board member Piero Cippollone, by contrast, warned against over-tightening to avoid economic damage.

A particularly curious debate concerns the boundary of neutrality itself. The 2.5% mark is widely regarded as the upper limit of a neutral range, beyond which activity begins to slow; chief economist Philip Lane has previously cited that figure.

Perhaps the most notable objection comes from outside the ECB—Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. He urged policymakers to account for the recent global rise in bond yields, which complicates the situation even though tighter financial conditions are helping the ECB contain inflation. In plain terms, markets have already done part of the tightening for the central bank, and additional policy action risks compounding that effect.

Here one finds a methodological problem that must be stated directly. The new quarterly projections around which the debate will swirl were prepared on an August cutoff and therefore do not incorporate the latest jump in sovereign yields or the surge in energy prices. I am convinced this is a critical flaw: the Governing Council will be making decisions on a worldview roughly a month old even as Brent approaches $102 and European gas hits 2023-era highs.

Another theme is Lagarde's future; talk of an early departure has intensified. Her remarks after the July meeting were the clearest signal yet that she may not stay until her term ends in October 2027. Pressure on the bank could rise sharply if Isabel Schnabel also exits early—her term runs until late 2027, and she could move to the IMF. The prospect of both departures would create an institutional risk for the ECB that outweighs any single rate decision.

A technical picture for EUR/USD suggests that buyers need to take 1.1650 to target 1.1670. From there 1.1690 is possible, but getting past that without support from major players will be difficult. On the downside, expect serious buying only around 1.1625; if buyers are absent there, it is prudent to wait for a fresh low at 1.1610 or to consider longs from 1.1580.

A technical picture for GBP/USD shows that pound buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at 1.3565 to target 1.3585; breaking above that level will be challenging. The farther target is 1.3600. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of 1.3535. If they succeed, a break of the range will inflict serious damage on bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3510 with a prospect of extending to 1.3480.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains "bullish" despite the two-week decline. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave did not break below the previous low. Geopolitics remains consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. The FOMC's stance is currently more important for the dollar, but it remains contradictory.

There was no significant fundamental background on Wednesday, but the market is awaiting an important event on Thursday. In a few hours today, the results of the European Central Bank meeting will become known, and a press conference with Christine Lagarde will also be held. There is no intrigue ahead of this event, as traders are confident that the ECB will raise interest rates. However, the market has been moving very sluggishly in recent days, as if it were uncertain about this decision. In my view, there is no reason to doubt that monetary policy will be tightened, but at the same time, it is important to understand whether today's tightening will be the last one before a long pause. The ECB is unlikely to have the ability to raise rates to whatever level inflation in the European Union may require. Oil prices continue to rise and exceed $100 per barrel this week. Therefore, consumer price inflation in Europe may continue to accelerate despite two monetary policy tightenings. I assume that the market wants to understand whether the ECB is prepared to continue tightening. If so, the bulls will launch new attacks.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1649. A rebound from this level would allow for further bearish pressure after the pair exits the ascending channel, with targets at 1.1588 and 1.1526. Consolidation above 1.1649 would allow for further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1726. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,558 Long positions and closed 6,869 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-three weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the supposed ceasefire and market hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 203,000, while the number of Short positions is 228,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is rapidly shrinking.

Overall, over the long term, major market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war repeatedly appears to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – ECB interest rate decision (12:15 UTC).
• United States – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in the number of initial unemployment benefit claims (12:30 UTC).
• European Union – Press conference with Christine Lagarde (12:45 UTC).
• United States – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC).

On September 10, the economic calendar contains five entries, among which I would highlight Christine Lagarde's speech following the ECB meeting. The economic background may influence market sentiment throughout Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Buying the pair was possible after it closed above 1.1620 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1700. These positions can be held today. Selling positions will become possible if the pair consolidates below 1.1620 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1551.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn at 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and at 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.

The market situation remains "bullish." The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage remains intact. The "bullish" trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is breached, that is, below 1.3414, or after two downward waves are formed.

There was no significant fundamental background on Wednesday, and there were no political catalysts for movements in the pound or the dollar. However, although geopolitics has disappeared from the front pages of the tabloids, it remains quite important and continues to influence the foreign exchange market. Yesterday, it became known that Iran may introduce a "maritime exclusion zone" covering the entire Persian Gulf, up to the positions of U.S. ships maintaining their own blockade. Tehran may take such measures in response to Donald Trump's "economic operation," which consists of blocking all financial flows to and from Iran. Let me remind you that, as part of his campaign against Iran, the U.S. president wants to achieve a complete cessation of any cooperation with Iran by all countries around the world. Under Trump's plan, no country in the world should buy Iranian oil or conduct any other business with Tehran. This plan was first announced several weeks ago and has remained merely an attractive plan ever since. Tehran warns that if economic pressure on it intensifies, its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be extended to the entire Persian Gulf.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the support level of 1.3467–1.3482 and closed above the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538, allowing traders to expect further growth toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3657. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators. After rebounding from the support level of 1.3467–1.3482 and forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator, the pound may well return to the 0.0% Fibonacci level.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 8,226, while the number of Short positions decreased by 3,175. The difference between the numbers of Long and Short positions is currently approximately 85,000 versus 135,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but this is no longer the case, as the fundamental background has changed.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. It is also not certain that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's position on monetary policy remains contradictory.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in the number of initial unemployment benefit claims (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC).

On September 10, the economic calendar contains three entries and not a single important one. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Thursday will be weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if it rebounds from 1.3556 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526 and 1.3489. Buying was possible after a rebound from 1.3489, with targets at 1.3556 and 1.3633. The first target was reached. Consolidation above 1.3556 will allow traders to hold positions with a target of 1.3633.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn at 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and at 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Asian markets followed suit, sliding after the US sell-off as higher oil rekindled inflation fears. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell by 0.6%, with Hong Kong and Australia among the weakest performers. Brent briefly rose to $101.94/bbl in early Asian trading before losing its gains. The 10-year Treasury yield held near a high of 4.85%.

The most telling development was the market reaction to Treasury actions. The government's plan to buy up to $6 billion of long-dated Treasuries disappointed some investors who had hoped for a larger program. Recall that in August, the Treasury doubled its operation limits from $2 billion to $4 billion, which temporarily pushed yields lower for a few days before they reverted. That initial announcement produced the strongest one-day gain in long-term bonds since February 2025. The second had little effect, and this latest move prompted outright disappointment. Skeptics who warned that technical fixes are insufficient to address fiscal imbalances have gained credibility, while the Treasury's policy toolkit appears to be shrinking with each attempt.

A striking contrast emerged from two near-back-to-back statements out of Washington. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined a plan for fiscal consolidation to shrink a deficit approaching $2 trillion. Today, President Donald Trump promised to pay every US adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of both houses of Congress. With roughly 260 million adults, that pledge amounts to about $1.3 trillion, a sum comparable to much of the annual deficit Bessent says he wants to reduce.

Market odds have shifted ahead of Friday's inflation prints. Fed funds futures are pricing in roughly a 62% chance of a 25-bp hike at the September 15–16 meeting, up from about 60% on Tuesday. However, a cooler inflation reading would strengthen the case for a pause and leave the dollar vulnerable to a dovish re-rating of Fed policy. Most likely, the dollar will remain under pressure until the inflation data is released, after which moves will depend on the internal split in the report.

Technically, the S&P 500 chart shows that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the resistance level of 7,656 to confirm upside and open the path to 7,679. Maintaining control above 7,698 would further reinforce the bullish case. On the downside, buyers must defend 7,633. A break below that level would likely push the index back to 7,607 and open the way to 7,583.

At the same time, Brent crude pierced $101/bbl. The US struck Iranian tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks, while the Houthis continued targeting Saudi oil infrastructure. US President Donald Trump downplays the risks and promises to end the conflict after the midterms, but hostilities show no sign of abating. Tehran says counter-strikes will intensify.

S&P 500 and Treasury yield dynamics

The buyback itself has an ironic twist. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tripled purchases versus the original $4 billion plan in an effort to quench the bond-market "fever." The market took it as a test of resolve and immediately probed for limits. What Bessent will do next is unclear, but the episode raises a deeper puzzle: yields have been rising for some time without triggering a full equity collapse. Even on Wednesday, the S&P 500 recovered most of its intraday losses.

All eyes are now on the 5% mark on the 10-year Treasury. It's closer than at any point in three years and represents a psychological watershed — a round number and the highest level in nearly two decades. Most major bond markets are already near peaks not seen since the global financial crisis. The US had held below 5% since 2023. A sustained break and close above 5% would make much scarier scenarios for the S&P 500 feel far more plausible.

AI remains investors' comfort blanket. Tech firms are chasing effectively unlimited demand, and it's hard to stop this funding cycle with a few basis points of higher yields.

S&P 500 earnings momentum

That loop feeds on itself. Nearly 86% of S&P 500 reporters have beaten earnings estimates, marking the best showing since 2021. Consensus EPS growth forecasts for the year have risen from 24% to 32%. For now, strong earnings are offsetting compressed multiples. The key question remains: what comes first — renewed risk appetite for equities or Friday's inflation data, which could tip the scales ahead of the September 15–16 Fed meeting?

Technically, the daily chart indicates that the S&P 500 has broken out of a wedge to the downside. While the index stays below 7,675, the odds of a correction driven by a 1-2-3 reversal pattern rise. It makes sense to hold positions and, at times, add to previously established short positions.

Against this backdrop, Brent crude broke $100 per barrel, bringing its year-to-date gain to roughly 65 percent, and US retail diesel prices hit historical highs.

The scale of Iran's economic damage is striking and highlights its stubbornness. The blockade has effectively removed the country's ability to export petroleum products and to import many essential goods; inflation has surged to nearly 90 percent, and the rial is rapidly depreciating.

Why does Tehran not enter negotiations under such conditions? The answer lies in the logic of Iran's leadership: it intends to fight until it is convinced Washington will be too cautious to attack again in the future. The goal is not to "win" the conflict quickly but to create a future-deterring precedent, which by definition has no fast solution.

Yesterday's timeline shows how this plays out in practice. Washington reported that one of its warships was forced to maneuver to avoid an Iranian attack and, in response, destroyed five IRGC oil tankers. Tehran then launched about 20 missiles at a Jordanian airbase used by the US, struck additional US Navy vessels, and hit several commercial ships.

The White House posture, however, diverges from assessments inside its own administration. On Wednesday, President Trump downplayed fears of rising oil prices and said the war would end within weeks. "I think the war will end right after the elections because they can't hold," he told reporters — referring to the midterms. Yet Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran may not yield to increased pressure and the conflict could extend through the end of the presidential term in January 2029.

I view this gap between public rhetoric and internal estimates as the day's most significant information. A divergence between a few weeks and three years suggests the administration lacks a unified sense of timing, while the market is pricing in an optimistic scenario shared primarily by the president. For the oil market, this directly signals that a quick end should not be expected and that energy-supply disruptions will persist. Add the Kharg Island situation and potential attacks on its loading infrastructure, and it becomes clear why oil is trading at these levels.

I expect Brent to remain in the $100–$110 range through the November elections, because neither side has incentives to concede now, and Trump's comment that the war will end after the vote should be read inversely: the administration acknowledges no resolution will come before the election. For central banks, this implies the energy shock moves from temporary to more persistent, weakening the arguments for a pause that Waller and Williams relied on; those arguments will erode month by month as the conflict persists.

Buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $96.50. That would allow a target of $100.40, above which a breakout becomes difficult. The farther target lies around $103.40. If oil falls, bears will try to take control of $92.54. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push oil toward the $89.54 low, with a further prospect of reaching $87.10.

Technically, the metal sits exactly between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and that position accurately reflects the market's condition. Since the July bounce from roughly $4,000, gold has been trading in a range around $4,400 as traders repeatedly reassess Federal Reserve-policy expectations without reaching a sustained conclusion.

The main event for the metal, however, was not a macro release but the failure of another attempt by the US Treasury to calm the bond market. The government's plan to buy up to $6 billion of long-dated bonds failed to impress, and ten-year Treasury yields rose. To be fair, immediately after the announcement, gold weakened to $4,370, but it was quickly bought back.

This is already the third iteration of the program: in August limits were doubled from $2bn to $4bn and produced a short-lived effect; now doubling to $6bn produced nothing. A curious duality emerges that the market is still digesting. Rising yields are formally negative for a non-yielding asset like gold, and gold did react that way intraday. Yet the failure signals that the Treasury cannot steer long yields with technical buybacks, which in turn feeds the debasement narrative that drove gold to August highs. The same episode works against the metal on a daily horizon and for it on a monthly horizon.

The geopolitical backdrop remains tense and weighs on gold through a familiar channel. Brent hit $100 per barrel for the first time since July, and Iran said it would intensify the conflict if the US continues strikes on its territory and infrastructure. The war has now entered its seventh month with no sign of abating, raising the risk of further energy-supply disruptions and, with them, inflation expectations.

Winners from the current configuration are investors buying gold not because of a single Fed decision but as protection against structural risks. This explains why major asset managers have been rebuilding gold positions in recent weeks. Losers are traders trying to guess direction inside the range— every new signal is played out and then extinguished within a few sessions.

Regarding the technical picture, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,425. That would set up a target of $4,480, above which a breakout would become difficult. The farther target lies around $4,540. If gold falls, bears will try to take control of $4,372; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold toward the $4,304 low, with a further prospect of reaching $4,249.

At the same time, a much less rosy story is unfolding on the other side of the market. The Exchange Whale Ratio has climbed to 0.93 — a metric that tracks the share of the largest deposits in total inflows to exchanges — and rises to these levels have historically coincided with periods of selling or sideways action, not with continuation of a rally. The implication is straightforward: large volumes of bitcoin flow onto exchanges precisely when supply needs to be placed somewhere, and overheated demand from leveraged traders provides ideal liquidity for that placement. A similar vulnerability was previously noted: unrealized profits of short-term whales reached a record $9.07 billion, and this cohort is often the first to succumb to the temptation to realize gains at the slightest sign of price weakness.

Also worrying is weak demand from the US — American institutional buyers, via spot ETFs, provided structural support through August's rally. That dynamic benefits whales planning exits at current prices amid retail euphoria, but it hurts new leveraged participants whose positions will be the first victims when a reversal occurs.

Is this situation a guaranteed signal of a crash? Not necessarily — retail optimism alone does not equal an immediate reversal; it simply creates fuel for subsequent liquidation if price cracks first.

I expect that if Bitcoin fails to secure a volume-backed close above 81,000 soon, retail euphoria risks turning into fuel for cascade liquidations of long positions rather than heralding a new rally.

What follows is the short-term trading plan and conditions.

A break above $78,600 opens a Bitcoin buy with a target at $79,500, where you should take profit and consider reversing into a short on a possible retracement, since a sharp impulse after a breakout rarely clears the upper target without a correction on the first attempt. Mandatory entry condition: price must remain above the 50-day moving average, and the Awesome indicator must be in positive territory, confirming buyer momentum has not been exhausted. Symmetrically from the lower boundary: if price reaches $78,000 and a break below is not confirmed, open a counter long aiming first for $78,600 and then $79,500.

Shorts are structured as the mirror image. A confirmed break below $78,000 leads to a short targeting $77,300, where it is logical to close the position and consider buying the bounce. A rejection from $78,600 with no reaction to an upside breakout opens the path for a short that sequentially targets both lower objectives—first $78,000, then $77,300. Entry conditions are the opposite of the long rules: the moving average must be above price, and the Awesome must be below zero.

Ethereum follows the same logic on its own price scale. A break above $2,486 gives a buy signal targeting $2,507, where the plan is to take profit and reverse into a short on the retracement under the same conditions: the 50-day MA rising below price and Awesome above zero. From the lower boundary $2,471, if a break there is not confirmed by further decline, you can also open a long aiming first for $2,486 and then $2,507.

Sells on Ether start at $2,471, targeting $2,460, and the second short option works from $2,486 if there is no reaction to its upside breakout, opening the path to the same two lower targets sequentially. Both indicators serve solely as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone triggers to enter early; therefore, trades should be taken only after real price confirmation of the indicated levels.