Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the levels I identified during the first half of the day. As a result, I ended the session without any trades.

In the second half of the day, a spike in volatility is expected, although it is unlikely to be critical for the USD/JPY pair, as markets are still anticipating potential intervention from the Bank of Japan. Nevertheless, it is important to review the upcoming data. The release sequence begins with the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for May. This indicator is closely monitored as a barometer of the U.S. economy, reflecting job creation outside the agricultural sector. Immediately after the employment report, the unemployment rate will be released. The final key release will be average hourly earnings. This indicator is of primary importance to the Federal Reserve, as wage growth is one of the main drivers of inflation. Higher inflation increases the likelihood of interest rate hikes, which generally strengthens the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 160.01 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 160.35 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.35, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the pair is possible in the case of negative news regarding agreements and strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.88 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 160.01 and 160.35 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakdown below 159.88 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.49, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of weak data releases. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 160.01 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward 159.88 and 159.49 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3434 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a long position in the pound. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.3456.

In the second half of the day, we will receive the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data. Sustained employment growth typically indicates strong economic recovery, but economists expect the indicator to slow significantly compared to April. Weak figures may raise concerns about economic slowdown and lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar. The unemployment rate, in turn, reflects the overall labor market situation. A decline in unemployment is traditionally seen as a positive signal; however, a sharp drop may indicate an overheating labor market and potential inflationary pressure. Finally, changes in average hourly earnings play a critical role in assessing inflation risks. Rapid wage growth can stimulate higher consumer spending, which in turn may fuel inflation—something negative for the Federal Reserve and may force it to maintain a relatively tight monetary policy stance.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3468 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3510 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3510, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the pound today is only possible if U.S. data is weak. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3448 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.3468 and 1.3510 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown below 1.3448 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3390, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3468 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward 1.3448 and 1.3390 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1624 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a long position in the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar is expected to become significantly more active, as three key macroeconomic indicators are released that are directly related to the future course of Federal Reserve monetary policy. The sequence of events begins with the publication of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for May. This indicator is one of the most closely watched measures of the health of the U.S. economy, reflecting job creation dynamics outside the agricultural sector. Immediately after the employment report, the unemployment rate will be released. The combination of these two indicators—job creation and unemployment—provides a comprehensive view of the labor market, which in turn directly influences consumer spending and inflation expectations.

The highlight of the day's economic agenda will be the release of average hourly earnings data. This indicator is of particular importance to the Federal Reserve, as wage growth is one of the key drivers of inflation. All of these figures will undoubtedly be closely analyzed in the context of future Fed interest rate decisions, which will determine the further direction of the U.S. dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, euro purchases can be considered when the price reaches the 1.1652 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1689. At 1.1689, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. A rise in the euro today is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1631 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.1652 and 1.1689 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1631 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1585, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1652 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward 1.1631 and 1.1585 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

In the second half of the day, we will see three important U.S. reports. The most significant will be the change in Nonfarm Payrolls for May. In addition, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will also be released.

These labor market indicators are key to understanding the current state of the U.S. economy and, consequently, to forecasting further actions by the Federal Reserve. The change in Nonfarm Payrolls is the most closely watched report. Strong employment growth typically signals solid economic recovery and may push the Fed toward tighter monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes.

The unemployment rate, in turn, reflects the overall picture of the labor market. A decline in unemployment is traditionally considered a positive signal, but a sharp drop may indicate an overheating labor market and potential inflation growth. Finally, changes in average hourly earnings are a critical component for assessing inflation risks. Rapid wage growth can lead to increased consumer spending, which in turn may fuel inflation—something the Federal Reserve aims to avoid.

In case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.1645 – potential rise to 1.1665 and 1.1684
• Sell breakout below 1.1630 – potential decline to 1.1600 and 1.1575

GBP/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.3480 – potential rise to 1.3510 and 1.3550
• Sell breakout below 1.3445 – potential decline to 1.3411 and 1.3370

USD/JPY

• Buy breakout above 160.00 – potential rise to 160.24 and 160.43
• Sell breakout below 159.80 – potential decline to 159.60 and 159.40

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1666 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.1610 and return above this level

GBP/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3478 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3428 and return above this level

AUD/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 0.7150 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 0.7120 and return above this level

USD/CAD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3900 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3868 and return above this level

Useful links:

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The inability to resolve the standoff between the United States and Iran has already led to a deadlock that has created significant uncertainty across financial markets.

When the conflict began in March, the market reaction was relatively straightforward. A clear pattern emerged in which rising oil prices supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on precious metals. Although this relationship remains in place, it is no longer as consistent as before. For example, declining oil prices no longer necessarily lead to gains in gold. Recently, there have been periods of uncoordinated market movement, with both oil and gold prices falling simultaneously.

In the Forex market, the U.S. Dollar Index has spent the last two weeks trading within an exceptionally narrow range—the narrowest seen over the past year. Certain currency pairs, such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD, have experienced substantial declines in recent days compared with EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, their influence on the index remains relatively limited.

The key factor behind this market behavior is the prolonged crisis in the Middle East, with no clear resolution in sight. The conflict continues to put pressure on energy prices, contributing to higher inflation. Central banks are monitoring the situation closely, recognizing that if the issue remains unresolved, they may be forced to raise interest rates to combat inflation, which could further weigh on already fragile economies.

Every day, news headlines are filled with reports of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, followed by reports of their suspension, only for discussions to resume again shortly afterward. Market participants must also take into account the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and President Donald Trump, who continues to express confidence that progress is being made. Markets appear increasingly skeptical of these statements, which is reflected in the significant reduction in directional price movement across many assets. While market swings were substantial from March through mid-May, they have narrowed considerably over the past two weeks. At the same time, volatility remains elevated. This volatility is being driven by erratic intraday price action, with assets often rising during the session before falling back close to the previous day's closing levels.

Even the release of important economic data has been unable to stabilize market conditions. In the past, traders would actively react to such reports by buying or selling assets, particularly currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar.

Today, markets will receive a series of labor market reports, including U.S. unemployment data, Nonfarm Payrolls, and several other important indicators. Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added 85,000 jobs in May, down from 123,000 in April.

This raises an important question: will the market react meaningfully to the data?

The answer is difficult to determine. Since April, when reports reflecting the post-conflict period began to be released, the market has largely ignored labor market data. The same could happen today. Market attention remains heavily focused on developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon, and the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran. As a result, the reaction to the Nonfarm Payrolls report may once again be muted. Even if a reaction occurs, it is likely to be less pronounced than under normal circumstances.

What can be expected from markets today?

In my view, the current environment of uncertainty is likely to persist until either the conflict ends, a clear signal emerges that it is approaching resolution, or central banks begin raising interest rates. Any of these developments could trigger more decisive and sustained market movements, particularly in the currency market.

Forecast of the Day:

#SPX

The S&P 500 futures CFD is trading below the 7550.65 level. Against the backdrop of persistent market uncertainty and potentially weak U.S. employment data, the index could decline toward 7494.00. Under this scenario, short positions may be considered around 7526.37.

#USDX

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade within a sideways range of 98.90–99.40. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could push the index toward the lower boundary of the range near 98.00. A potential selling level may be located around 99.17.

On the lower timeframe, I can identify a classic three-wave bullish corrective structure. Following the completion of this structure, a new downward trend segment began to develop, which logically should take the form of an impulsive wave sequence. If this assumption is correct, we should expect the formation of a five-wave structure within wave C of the higher degree, with targets below the 1.1400 level. Are there sufficient fundamental reasons to expect such a strong strengthening of the U.S. dollar? Not with complete certainty. However, the market is increasingly losing confidence in the prospect of a deal between the United States and Iran, which is supporting sellers.

EUR/USD gained 15 points on Thursday, but overall once again showed a very limited trading range. During the day, the market received no meaningful information from Christine Lagarde's speech, leading me to conclude that no important statements were made. In addition, for the first time in a long while, there were no geopolitical headlines from either Trump or Iran. As a result, we witnessed another uneventful trading day. The pair continues to form corrective wave 4, which has taken the shape of a sideways range.

However, attention should shift this morning to the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the U.S. unemployment rate. Just a few months ago, these reports were key drivers of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Now, however, inflation driven by the conflict involving Trump in the Middle East has moved to the forefront. Since we continue to hear about a potential agreement between the United States and Iran without seeing any concrete results, conditions in the oil, gas, and fuel markets could continue to deteriorate over time. This may trigger a new round of inflationary pressures. Consequently, the Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on inflation dynamics than on labor market conditions in the near term. Therefore, today's reports are not as important as they were several months ago.

Nevertheless, they cannot be considered secondary. The U.S. labor market recovered during 2026, although not completely. If the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates, it could trigger another period of economic cooling. For this reason, the regulator is not rushing to tighten monetary policy, even though inflation has increased by 1.4 percentage points over the past two months. Such a move could weaken labor market conditions again and slow economic growth. However, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates if inflation continues to accelerate. The U.S. inflation report for May will be released next Wednesday.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the broader upward trend segment (lower chart) and, in the shorter term, within a corrective structure. At present, wave 5 may be forming, potentially as part of wave C. The entire wave C structure (if the current wave count is correct) could ultimately complete far below the 1.1400 level. However, such a substantial decline would require significant geopolitical support. Otherwise, the bearish wave sequence could become truncated and complete only slightly below the 1.1600 level.

On the higher timeframe, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to develop with targets near 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There is never complete certainty regarding market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The British pound is attempting to establish itself slightly above the 200-day SMA following yesterday's reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. However, reports that Hezbollah had rejected the proposal led to a correction in the pound's exchange rate. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3424 after reaching an intraday high of 1.3460 yesterday.

GBP/USD is also attempting to advance amid falling oil prices, which partially offset various uncertainties related to the Hezbollah situation.

Meanwhile, military activity continues in the Middle East, with Israel carrying out strikes in southern Lebanon. According to Al-Hadath, the Israeli army has begun withdrawing troops from Dibbine in southern Lebanon. Iran has reaffirmed the importance of a ceasefire for progress in peace negotiations with the United States.

A swift resolution of the regional conflict could ease inflationary pressures, as major central banks are expected to keep interest rates at current levels. Other central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), have tightened monetary policy by 75 basis points this year, citing the impact of energy shocks and disruptions to oil supplies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the benchmark for the U.S. market, fell by 5% to $91.11 per barrel. This is weighing on the U.S. dollar, as a close relationship exists between oil prices and currency valuations. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, declined by 0.21% to 99.38.

In the United States, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30 exceeded expectations, coming in at 225,000 compared with the previous week's revised reading of 212,000. The four-week moving average rose to 214,750 from 208,250 previously.

In May, announced job cuts increased from 83,387 to 97,006, with nearly 39% of the reductions occurring in the technology sector. This represented an increase of approximately 16% compared with April.

Despite this, the labor market continues to show resilience as traders await the release of the May Nonfarm Payrolls report. The report is expected to show job growth of 85,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

In the United Kingdom, amid an ongoing political crisis and speculation regarding his future, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing growing dissatisfaction within his party, which is reportedly seeking a replacement following disappointing local election results.

Additional support for the pound comes from recent comments by Bank of England officials. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that, without factors related to the situation in the Persian Gulf, inflation could already have reached the Bank's 2% target. Two days ago, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene emphasized that the case for raising interest rates is becoming increasingly compelling.

Financial markets are currently pricing in approximately 47 basis points of potential Bank of England rate increases in 2026, implying expectations of at least two rate hikes by the central bank.

The table below shows the percentage change in the British pound against major currencies today. The pound posted its strongest performance against the Canadian dollar.

From a technical perspective, the pair continues to trade within a sideways range between key moving averages. The 200-day SMA serves as immediate support, followed by the psychological level of 1.3400. The nearest resistance is provided by the 20-day SMA, after which bulls will face the challenge of overcoming the 100-day SMA. However, as long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears retain the advantage.

During Friday's Asian session, the euro is posting a modest gain of 0.15%, as traders remain optimistic about the outcome of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate within a sideways range, constrained by key moving averages. Immediate resistance is provided by the 20-day SMA at 1.1645, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1670 and the 200-day SMA near 1.1679.

A breakout above these levels would open the way for a test of the 100-day moving average, located at the psychological level of 1.1700.

On the other hand, the nearest support is located at the May 21 low of 1.1575. If this level is broken, the next targets would be the April 6 low at 1.1504 and the March 30 low at 1.1443.

As the oscillators remain in negative territory, bears continue to hold the advantage in the market.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish and remains so for now. However, bulls will only be able to extend their advance if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement, stop violating the ceasefire terms, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. Without these developments, further gains in the euro are likely to be extremely difficult.

There were very few economic events on Thursday. The Eurozone released weak retail sales data, while the United States published weak initial jobless claims figures. Despite this, the euro advanced confidently during the first half of the day, while the U.S. dollar strengthened during the second half. Therefore, I remain convinced that economic data continues to have little influence on trader sentiment. The situation may change today, as traders will receive updated information on the state of the U.S. labor market and unemployment. However, in my view, even such important data is unlikely to trigger strong market movements. Traders remain hostage to geopolitical developments, which have recently been disappointing not because of a lack of news, events, or changes in the geopolitical agenda, but because of contradictory reports, conflicting developments, and a lack of concrete facts. Almost every day, the media produces a large volume of information that has little impact on the actual resolution of the conflict in the Middle East.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade within a horizontal range between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% level at 1.1667. Market participants remain cautious about opening new positions and drawing conclusions, and I currently recommend focusing more on the hourly chart, as price movements have been relatively weak in recent weeks. The rebound from the 1.1667 level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 10,196 Long positions and 6,109 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict involving Iran, while during the last nine weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, compared with 193,000 Short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, from a long-term perspective, major market participants continue to view the euro favorably. Naturally, global developments of various kinds—none of which have been in short supply in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. As a result, in the near term, the euro and the U.S. dollar are likely to be driven not by Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor by economic data, but by developments in Iran.

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Q1 GDP Growth Rate (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC).

The June 5 economic calendar contains three events, with the U.S. releases standing out as the most significant. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment could be substantial during the second half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.1682 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1578. The first target has been reached. New short positions may be considered after a rebound from the 1.1630 level from below. Long positions may be opened after a rebound from the 1.1578 level, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1682.

Fibonacci grids are constructed using 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and 1.2081–1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficiently positive geopolitical developments to launch a full-scale advance. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain highly uncertain at present, leaving neither bulls nor bears with a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after the May 25 peak is surpassed.

The news background on Thursday was neutral, uneventful, and offered little of interest. There is little to discuss regarding economic reports, as the only notable release during the day was the U.S. initial jobless claims report. Recently, the market has largely ignored far more significant data releases, so the claims report attracted little attention from traders. Market focus remains centered on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the global economy. The United States and Iran continue negotiations and maintain a ceasefire despite regularly exchanging attacks and threats. This week, Tehran and Washington carried out several strikes, while on Monday Israel effectively resumed military operations against Lebanon. As a result, the ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears highly unusual in practice. Both sides continue striking enemy positions, yet neither denies that the ceasefire remains in effect. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington are equally unusual. Very little official information has been released, yet Donald Trump remains confident that a deal could be reached as early as this weekend, while Tehran insists that no meaningful progress has been achieved. Against the backdrop of these developments—or the lack of them—traders have chosen to remain on the sidelines and wait for greater clarity.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3482–1.3514, which allows traders to anticipate a decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements are likely to depend primarily on geopolitical developments rather than chart analysis in the near term. Technical analysis should be viewed only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became slightly less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,097, while the number of Short positions declined by 13,006. The gap between Long and Short positions now effectively stands at 58,000 versus 119,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the expectation of a prolonged conflict, but recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be quick or easy.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC).

The June 5 economic calendar contains two events that I consider important for traders. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment is likely to be felt during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. The first target has already been reached. Long positions may be considered today after a rebound from the 1.3408 level, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. Traders may also consider buying the pair after a close above 1.3454–1.3466, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci grids are constructed using 1.3158–1.3655 on the hourly chart and 1.3866–1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

A single falling domino can topple the whole structure. Investors had been obsessed with chipmakers, buying them like hotcakes. Talk of an AI bubble was widespread and a trigger was needed for profit-taking. Broadcom's quarterly guide may or may not have been that trigger, but the company's decline hit the entire tech sector.

Nasdaq 100 performance

As a result, the Nasdaq 100 closed in the red, while investors seeking shelter from mega-cap tech rotated into other assets, producing mixed moves across US indices. The Dow Jones notched a fresh record, and the S&P 500 managed to close the downside opening gap and finish higher.

Financial stocks emerged as the main refuge. Only 15% of respondents in the MLIV Pulse survey expect the fed funds rate to fall from current levels. Most foresee either a hold at 3.75% or further increases, which creates a tailwind for banks.

Dynamics of US stock indices

US labor market data for May is eagerly awaited. Positive payrolls would be bad news for the S&P 500 — stronger employment increases the odds of Fed tightening. Conversely, signs of labor market strain would raise the probability of 2026 rate cuts and provide support for the broad index.

Derivatives point to a muted stock market reaction to Friday's nonfarm payrolls prints: market pricing implies an S&P 500 move of no more than ±0.6% on the print.

Conflicting headlines continue to arrive from the Middle East. Iran reports no progress in talks with the US, and Hezbollah says it will not adhere to the Israel ceasefire. US President Donald Trump, however, insists that a Washington-Tehran deal is in its final negotiation stage.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 managed to closed the opening gap down. That underscores bull strength and supports a buy-the-dip strategy toward the previously stated target of $7,700. A necessary condition is consolidation above fair value at $7,585.

The technology sector extended its pullback from record highs, the third day in a row. Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 0.9%, and the MSCI Asia index has lost 1.4%. The biggest hit again fell on South Korea's KOSPI, this year's top performing index and a key gauge of AI investment, down 4.7%. This is no longer a mere technical correction but represents large capital exiting positions accumulated during months of rapid gains.

The trigger was Broadcom — the stock fell the most in 16 months after a disappointing revenue guide for AI chips. Investor expectations had been too high, and management signaled that the shift toward AI customers is progressing more slowly than anticipated. Union Bancaire Privee described the move yesterday as predictable: after unprecedented gains, consolidation was overdue, and Broadcom's miss gave profit-holders an excuse to lock in gains — but the long-term AI thesis remains intact. A correction following a roughly 70% rally in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over two months is normal market behavior, not necessarily a trend reversal.

Brent crude recovered modestly to about $95.50, partially retracing losses after the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire news. Gold eased to $4,440 — uncertainty around US-Iran talks continues to weigh. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said yesterday that policy is in a good place but that there is too much uncertainty ahead to offer clear guidance.

The main event today is Friday's nonfarm payrolls data. Consensus calls for +85,000 jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate. If the print comes in materially stronger than expected, markets will increase the odds of Fed rate hikes, which would put additional pressure on the tech sector via the yield channel.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis shows that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,547. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474.

The picture for the week is indicative. In early April, when the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, futures retreated about 20% from their peak. Then, the optimism surrounding negotiations continued to weigh on prices for several more weeks. Now, the pendulum has swung back: Hezbollah rejected the Lebanese ceasefire, strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain resumed, and an explosion at the oil export terminal in Oman at Mina al-Fahal — one of the few remaining operational points for shipping Middle Eastern oil — added nervousness, although operations at the terminal were later resumed. The market received enough reasons to restore part of the geopolitical premium.

Trump continues to assure that a deal is near. Yesterday, he posted on social media that he is "in the midst of final negotiations" with Iran. When asked about Hezbollah's rejection of the Lebanese ceasefire, he replied, "They didn't reject me" and stated that they called him to discuss a ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly stated the day before that there has been no significant progress. The market hears both versions — and prefers to remain cautious.

Recently, conflicting statements have no longer been a serious negative factor — they merely restrain excessive price growth. Traders are willing to partially remove the military premium on constructive headlines, but until there is real progress on the ground, it is premature to talk about the disappearance of the risk premium.

Tonight, the May Non-Farm Payrolls will be released — and it risks adding another price impulse to oil. If the employment data is strong, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike will increase — the dollar will strengthen, which traditionally puts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. If the data is weak, the inflation narrative may weaken slightly, and oil could get a slight breather. In any case, the main variable for the oil market remains unchanged — the Strait of Hormuz and the fate of the negotiations.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow targeting $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $110.80 area. In the event of a drop in oil, bears will attempt to take control at $92.54. If this is achieved, breaking the range would deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and drive oil down to a low of $86.50, with the potential to approach $81.40.

It is evident that the week has been busy in a negative sense: the most serious clashes in the Middle East since the April ceasefire, the failure of the Lebanon-Israel agreement, and yet another deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

The negotiating situation by the end of the week looks worse than at the beginning. Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire with Israel brokered by the U.S. Iranian forces launched missile and drone strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. The U.S. struck an oil tanker heading to Iran. However, Trump stated in his usual fashion that negotiations are at a final stage, although Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi responded the same day that no tangible progress had been made.

The market has been living in this cycle of mutually exclusive statements for several weeks now and is gradually ceasing to react to it.

For gold, the issue is not so much geopolitics as how it influences rates. The closed Strait of Hormuz keeps oil prices high, high oil prices drive inflation, and inflation forces central banks to tighten policy — and all of this weighs on the non-yielding metal. Additionally, technically, the metal is trading below key levels on the daily and four-hour charts, indicating the continuation of a negative trend.

At the same time, central banks are not giving the market cause for optimism. The president of the San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, stated yesterday that there is too much uncertainty in the economy for rate predictions, adding: "We are prepared to respond in any case, regardless of what the economy brings." This is not a dovish signal — it is a signal of readiness to raise rates if necessary. The president of the Dallas Fed, Logan, said the same thing the day before, but more directly.

Tonight, the U.S. employment report for May will be released — and it will determine the tone for the next week. If the Non-Farm Payrolls are stronger than the expected 85,000, the odds for a Fed rate hike will increase — and gold will be under additional pressure. Silver is falling more aggressively today — down 1.7% to $72.61. Platinum is declining, while palladium is rising slightly.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow targeting $4,546, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The furthest target will be the $4,607 area. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control at $4,432. If this is successful, breaking the range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,372, with the potential to reach $4,304.

In this context, it is not surprising that the cryptocurrency ETF market continues to set anti-records. The Bitcoin ETF has recorded its thirteenth consecutive red day, with an outflow of $396.6 million, while the Ethereum ETF has seen a seventeenth day of losses totaling -$52.9 million.

17 days without a single positive day for Ethereum is a historical record low, indicating not a temporary correction but a systemic exit of institutional capital from the second-largest crypto asset.

This time, altcoins also entered the red zone: XRP lost $5.3 million, and SOL lost $12.7 million. The only assets with positive results were HYPE ($3 million) and BNB ($1.2 million) — a drop in the ocean against the backdrop of the day's overall outflow. DOGE, LINK, HBAR, LTC, AVAX, and DOT showed zero flows.

The final touch to the grim picture comes from data regarding BlackRock. Over the past ten days, the world's largest asset manager has transferred 30,119 bitcoins worth $1.9 billion and 161,829 ethers worth $320 million to Coinbase Prime — a total of about $2.2 billion. This is not a one-time operation, but a methodical, consecutive withdrawal of assets onto the trading platform over nearly two weeks. When a company managing $10 trillion in assets moves crypto assets to exchanges day after day, the market reads it clearly: BlackRock is preparing to sell. And this behavior of the largest institutional player explains why even the declared state support for Bitcoin — strategic reserves, the CLARITY Act, the SEC's five-year plan — cannot stop the outflow.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $62,600, with a target growth to the level of $64,800. Around $64,800, I intend to exit the buy positions and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $61,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $62,600 and $64,800.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $61,000, with a target drop to the level of $58,700. Around $58,700, I intend to exit the sell positions and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $62,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $61,000 and $58,700.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,688, with a target growth to the level of $1,793. Around $1,793, I intend to exit the buy positions and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario 2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,611 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $1,688 and $1,793.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,611, with a target drop to the level of $1,518. Around $1,518, I intend to exit the sell positions and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario 2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,688 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $1,611 and $1,518.

The price test at 159.95 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. A similar situation was observed with short positions at the price of 159.82.

With the USD/JPY pair returning to the level of 160, discussions about potential currency interventions by the central bank are increasing. According to recent data, it is evident that Japan has used its foreign securities reserves, including US Treasury bonds, to finance a record-scale intervention in the currency market. According to data released by the Ministry of Finance on Friday, Tokyo's holdings of foreign securities at the end of May decreased by $75.6 billion from April. This scale corresponds to Japan's recent market intervention to support the yen. The Ministry confirmed last week that the volume of interventions for the month ending May 28 reached a record 11.73 trillion yen. However, this provided only temporary support to the yen, which weakened again against the dollar and returned to the 160 level, from where the central bank may act more aggressively again. It is advisable to continue monitoring the sales of long-term Japanese bonds and to expect new aggressive measures from the regulator to support the national currency.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 160.06 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.35 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.35, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 159.84, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected at the opposite levels of 160.06 and 160.35.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price reaches 159.84 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.49, where I intend to exit shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; we just need a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.

Scenario 2: I also intend to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 160.06 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 159.84 and 159.49.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3445 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.

Today, the data expected includes figures from the Halifax House Price Index, from which nothing good is anticipated, and later, there will be a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra. Although these two events seem isolated, they carry the potential to influence the British pound. The Halifax Index is typically one of the first indicators of the UK housing market's health, and if it shows further decline, it could exacerbate concerns about the economy's resilience to rising interest rates. Market expectations are already reflected in current quotes, but any deviations from forecasts, especially in a negative direction, could provoke a sharp reaction. Given the already challenging economic situation, where inflation remains high and growth is slowing, pessimistic housing market data could drive traders away from riskier assets toward safer havens.

The speech by Dhingra adds intrigue. Traders will analyze every word closely, trying to catch hints about future monetary policy. In light of the recent inflation data and signs of economic slowdown, Dhingra's tone may be more cautious, emphasizing the need for further tightening to combat inflation.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3434 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3456 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3456, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). Strong growth for the pound today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3420, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be anticipated at the opposite levels of 1.3434 and 1.3456.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after it reaches 1.3420 (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3390, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pound will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.

Scenario 2: I also intend to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3434, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3420 and 1.3390.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The first test of the price at 1.1640 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly up from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1640 coincided with the MACD indicator being in the overbought zone, prompting the implementation of Scenario 2 to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips.

Today's financial day in the Eurozone is expected to be quite eventful, although it does not foreshadow dizzying rises or sharp declines. The main focus will be on the first report coming in the first half of the day. The release of the Eurozone GDP growth report for the previous quarter is anticipated. Preliminary forecasts indicate relatively weak growth, which could signal a slowdown in economic activity in the region.

Alongside the GDP figures, employment data will also be published. Analysts believe that labor market dynamics will not show significant improvement either. This may raise concerns about the resilience of the European economy and its potential impact on the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Investors and analysts will need to closely examine these figures, as they could form the basis for future trading strategies and forecasts.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, I can buy the euro at around 1.1624 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1654. At 1.1654, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can expect the euro to rise only after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its rise from there.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1611, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1624 and 1.1654.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1611 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1585, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return only if reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from there.

Scenario 2: I also intend to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1624, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1611 and 1.1585.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Fundamental background: triple hawkish factor

Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough that briefly weakened the dollar early this week were fully offset by a new wave of military escalation in the Persian Gulf.

Key developments in the past 24 hours

• US strikes on Iran. CENTCOM confirmed "self-defense strikes" against Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's response. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Although air-defense systems intercepted the majority of rockets and drones, the attacks themselves represent an escalation.
• Crisis in Lebanon. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah intensified, widening the zone of conflict.

This dynamic of reciprocal accusations and strikes, together with the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, returned the geopolitical premium to prices almost instantly. The dollar index responded with gains as investors again sought refuge in the US currency.

Alongside geopolitics, a repricing of Fed policy expectations on the back of strong labor market data has been a driver of dollar strength.

JOLTS data for April (Tuesday):

• Job openings jumped to 7.618 million (consensus 6.88 million), the highest level since May 2024.
• The openings rate rose from 4.2% to 4.6%. Fed governor and FOMC member Christopher Waller previously described the 4.6% level as critical for forecasting turning points in unemployment acceleration.

Markets reacted immediately. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has surpassed 50%.

Two-year Treasury yields settled above 4.05% and 10-year yields above 4.46%.

In addition to the data, Fed officials continued to send hawkish signals. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the central bank is firmly committed to returning inflation to 2% and "may need to act soon" if inflationary trends do not cool.

Key events today:

- 12:15 GMT — ADP employment change (May). Forecast: +120k (previous +109k). Expected impact: Strong figures will strengthen the dollar.

- 14:00 GMT — ISM Services PMI (May). Forecast: 53.8 (previous 53.6). Expected impact: Above-forecast reading will support the dollar.

- 14:00 GMT — ISM Services Employment Index. Forecast: improvement. Expected impact: Important labor market leading indicator.

- 14:00 GMT — ISM Services Prices Paid. Forecast: rise to 72.3. Expected impact: A rise would heighten inflation concerns.

- 18:00 GMT — Fed Beige Book release. Expected impact: Information on the state of the economy.

The main trigger of the week remains Friday's US nonfarm payrolls (May). The forecast is 85–95k; stronger figures would bolster the dollar.

Brief technical analysis

Technically, the USDX is consolidating above several important support levels: 99.09 (200-hour EMA on the 1-hour chart), 99.00 (round level and 200-day EMA on the daily chart), 98.88 (200-hour EMA on the 4-hour chart). The index is encountering strong resistance at 99.25 (50-week EMA), reflecting mixed fundamental signals.

Key technical signals

• The 200-day EMA sits at 99.00 and acts as a key dynamic support. The index successfully bounced from it this week.
• The RSI (14) is around 57–60, indicating positive but not overbought momentum.

Most economists conclude that renewed US-Iran tensions have supported the dollar, and that a restrictive Fed stance is viewed as further support for additional dollar strength.

They also expect the dollar index to continue consolidating, but strong labor data and geopolitical risks could push the dollar to break above 99.50.

The most likely near-term scenario is continued consolidation in the 98.70–99.50 range while markets wait for NFP and the weekend's geopolitical developments.

Conclusion

The USDX sits in a comfortable support zone supported by three factors:

• Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East restored demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
• Shockingly strong JOLTS data (7.618 million job openings) reduced expectations of Fed easing and increased the probability of a hike.
• Hawkish Fed commentary added to bullish conviction.

The key zone 99.00–99.50 will be the arena of a decisive battle in the coming days. Holding above 99.00 and a break of 99.50 would open the way to 100.00.

The US macro backdrop, which supports a tighter Fed stance, could contribute to further dollar appreciation, economists say, but they warn that the Fed leadership transition and geopolitical risks keep the dollar rangebound.

Investors should watch today's ISM Services PMI and the Beige Book, and Friday's NFP — these events will determine whether the dollar can hold above 99.50 and head to 100.00 or whether a correction will occur.

The USDX has found itself in a comfortable support zone formed by three factors. The key zone 99.00–99.50 will be the arena of a decisive battle in the coming days. Holding above 99.00 and a break of 99.50 would open the way to 100.00.

See also our today's reviews:

XAU/USD: price balances on the edge at 4,450.00

EUR/USD: awaiting new data

Before that, a rather weak report on changes in Eurozone GDP and employment data is expected in the first half of the day. These indicators will undoubtedly attract close attention from traders, as they may provide valuable insights into the current state and prospects of the European economy. Expectations of weak results and a growth rate of only 0.1% in the first quarter of this year may put pressure on the euro, while unexpectedly strong figures could boost the currency. Employment data is also likely to be scrutinized closely. Although the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remains relatively low, any signs of its increase could signal growing concerns about economic activity. Weak employment figures could exacerbate fears of a recession, while strong figures could support growing confidence in the resilience of the European labor market.

As for the pound, today's financial calendar for the United Kingdom is rather subdued; however, the data and an upcoming speech by an official could have some impact on market sentiment. In the first half of the day, traders will focus on the release of the Halifax House Price Index. Preliminary expectations do not signal positive news, and analysts agree that this indicator is likely to continue to show negative dynamics. This could serve as further evidence of cooling in the British housing market, which has been under increased pressure from high interest rates and broader economic uncertainty in recent months.

However, a more significant event in the second half of the day will be the speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra. Her comments could contain valuable hints regarding the future direction of monetary policy, especially in light of recent inflation trends and growth prospects. Market participants will be closely listening for any statements related to inflation risks, the state of the labor market, and the overall economic outlook. Any signals regarding a possible change in the Bank of England's approach to interest rates could lead to increased volatility in the currency market.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EURUSD Pair

Buy on breakout of level 1.1625 may lead to euro rising to the area of 1.1658 and 1.1698;

Sell on breakout of level 1.1600 may lead to euro falling to the area of 1.1579 and 1.1550;

For the GBPUSD Pair

Buy on breakout of level 1.3440 may lead to pound rising to the area of 1.3475 and 1.3510;

Sell on breakout of level 1.3410 may lead to pound falling to the area of 1.3380 and 1.3350;

For the USDJPY Pair

Buy on breakout of level 160.02 may lead to dollar rising to the area of 160.24 and 160.43;

Sell on breakout of level 159.83 may lead to dollar losses in the area of 159.60 and 159.39;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EURUSD Pair

I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1625 on a return below this level;

I will look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1608 on a return to this level;

For the GBPUSD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3439 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3415 on a return to this level;

For the AUDUSD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7140 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7115 on a return to this level;

For the USDCAD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3912 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3894 on a return to this level;

The market is almost fully concentrated on AI: investors have pushed all three major US indices to record highs for a fifth straight day, marking the longest run since February 2017. Tech names are up about 36% from March highs. The S&P 500 gained 16% in April–May, but most of that advance is concentrated in roughly a dozen issuers, generating FOMO even among professionals.

Chipmakers lead the charge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallied by 90% from this year's low. New S&P records were driven largely by Marvell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Marvell jumped after NVIDIA's CEO flagged its chances of joining the $1 trillion market-cap club, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise surprised with a strong Q1 print. Follow the link for more details.

Geopolitical escalation and strong labor data boost dollar demand

The US dollar index is slightly softer in the early US trade ahead of services PMI and the ADP report but remains on track for a weekly gain. Renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz (US strikes on Qeshm island and IRGC retaliatory strikes on bases in Kuwait and Bahrain), together with intensified fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, has restored demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and knocked back early hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.

At the same time, hawkish labor readings (JOLTS) lifted the odds of a persistently tight Fed stance, strengthening the dollar via a repricing of interest rate expectations. In short, geopolitics and the labor market are the main drivers — investors are seeking safety and reassessing monetary policy prospects. Follow the link for more details.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunge as optimism fades

Yesterday, indices reversed lower: S&P 500 -0.74%, Nasdaq 100 -0.89%, Dow Jones -1.21% (Nasdaq futures down about 0.5%). The rally stumbled on two shocks in one day — a weak guide from Broadcom that chilled the AI narrative, and renewed US-Iran clashes. MSCI Asia Pacific fell by 1.6%. South Korea's KOSPI lost 1.7%. Brent trades around $97/bbl (after a modest dip on news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon), Bitcoin slipped below $62,000, and the semiconductor sector triggered profit?taking.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,547. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers must defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474. Follow the link for more details.

The euro shows a moderate 0.12% strengthening as market participants maintain positive expectations regarding the results of negotiations between the US and Iran, which have proceeded without interruption, according to Pakistan's foreign minister in a conversation with journalist Malik. The published macro data partially confirm the concept of the "exceptionality" of the US economy, which traditionally supports the dollar, but this time the pressure may have increased due to weaker-than-expected labor market data ahead of Friday's NFP report.

Geopolitical factors continue to dominate the macroeconomic agenda. Market sentiment remains mixed, though largely focused on the dynamics of the US stock market, where capital is being redistributed from the technology sector to other industries. The Dow Jones index approaches record highs.

At the same time, tensions in the Middle East remain: despite US President Donald Trump's mediation efforts to achieve a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, the situation remains unstable, as evidenced by Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. The initiative was rejected by the Iran-backed movement Hezbollah, while the Israeli side stated there were no intentions to withdraw troops.

Macroeconomic data from the US exert additional pressure on the dollar, despite the statements from Fed representative Schmidt. Recent employment data indicated a moderate cooling of the labor market: the number of initial jobless claims exceeded the forecast of 213,000, reaching 225,000 for the week ending May 30. Additionally, the number of announced job layoffs increased from 83,837 to 97,000 in May, which is 16% higher than the April level.

Ahead of the NFP publication and against the backdrop of declining oil prices, the dollar shows weakness: the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks its performance against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.15% to 99.39.

The head of the Kansas City Fed, Jeffrey Schmidt, emphasized that inflation remains "excessively high" and poses a key risk to the US economy, raising the question of whether to maintain a wait-and-see stance on rates or shift to more decisive action.

The European economy, in turn, faces signs of stagflation against the backdrop of the European Central Bank's tough rhetoric. Most macroeconomic indicators point to deterioration: as of June 3, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the Eurozone fell to -45.2, signaling that actual data systematically lag behind analysts' expectations and reflecting internal weakness in the EU economy. Eurozone GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 was only 0.1%, slowing from 0.2% and 0.3% in the fourth and third quarters of 2025, respectively. This indicates a continuing slowdown amid rising inflation, which reached 3.2% year-on-year due to an energy shock linked to the conflict in Iran.

Nevertheless, representatives of the European Central Bank continue to maintain a tough stance, openly showing intentions to raise interest rates. Vujcic, Simkus (twice), Stournaras, Schnabel, Nagel, and several other ECB representatives indicate a likelihood of a rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Regarding the outlook, a slight slowdown in employment growth is expected in the US: according to the median forecast, the NFP figure for May is expected to decrease from 115,000 to 85,000, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

In the Eurozone, GDP figures for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate in a sideways range, constrained by the major moving averages.

The nearest resistance is the 20-day SMA at 1.1645, just above it is the 50-day SMA at 1.1670, and the 200-day SMA is near 1.1679. A breakout of these moving averages will open the way to the 100-day moving average at 1.1700, which the pair will likely test before attempting to break through.

On the downside, the nearest support is located at the May 21 low of 1.1575. If it breaks, the next targets will be the April 6 low at 1.1504 and the March 30 low at 1.1443. According to recent data, the euro has strengthened the most against the Canadian dollar among major currencies.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant's CEO, Ki Young Ju, reported that a large-scale change in ownership is currently underway in the market. Ju noted record demand from institutional investors for both ETFs, yet Bitcoin has still been in decline for 9 months. Thus, we can draw the obvious conclusion that was evident half a year ago: institutional demand is good, but large capital cannot always save Bitcoin from falling, lend it maturity, and reduce volatility. The price is falling because aggregate demand is decreasing, while supply is increasing. In this case, what difference does it make how institutional capital behaves?

Ju also pointed out that, for example, the company Strategy is not selling its Bitcoins, and spot ETFs have absorbed approximately half a million coins over the past two years. Once again, demand may have increased among spot investors for exchange-traded instruments, but it has fallen among retail traders. In simple terms, one should not draw conclusions about an asset's long-term movement based solely on the involvement of large capital. Currently, about 40% of Bitcoin coins are at a loss. In our view, this may lead to even greater declines as investors might start liquidating their positions. However, CryptoQuant analysts believe that Bitcoin is thereby demonstrating its maturity and growth – an increasing number of coins are coming under the control of institutions, ETFs, and large investors.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of a long-term upward trend beginning. A signal in the nearest "bearish" FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the area of $79,300 - $81,200, has been formed and has received confirmation on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we are inclined to expect the continuation of the downward trend in the near term, and bearish patterns remain a priority in trading.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

The daily timeframe continues to form a downward trend, and Ethereum has begun a new phase of the downward trend. The key selling pattern was and continues to be the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the movement prompted by this signal can be strong and long-lasting. We do not believe it is over, as there are no signs of completion of the downward trend for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near term, Ethereum may continue to decline, with no signs of the fall ending. We had previously identified a target level of $1,742, which has now been reached. This week, bearish FVGs will form on the daily timeframe, from which new short positions can be opened when signals are present.

Explanations for Illustrations:

CHOCH – break of the trend structure.

Liquidity – Stop-Loss and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG – Area of price inefficiency. The price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side of the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return to and react from such areas as the main trend continues.

IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but instead impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.

OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position with the goal of collecting liquidity to form his own position in the opposite direction.

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, including important ones. We should start with the Eurozone GDP report for the first quarter, in its final assessment. It is expected that the US economy's growth rate will slow to 0.8%, which is unlikely to be considered a positive signal for the euro. In the United States, reports on Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and changes in average wages will be published. Naturally, the first two reports will attract traders' attention, but let us remind you that over the last three months, the market has ignored numerous important events and reports. Thus, a spike in volatility is possible today, but the flat for both currency pairs will likely continue.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, speeches by Swati Dhingra and Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England stand out. Speeches by central bank heads generate interest; however, they must convey something important and unexpected to the market to elicit a reaction, especially under current circumstances. This week, Bailey and Lagarde have already delivered speeches, but they did not provide any significant information to the market. Let us remind you that the only central bank that can change the key rate at the next meeting is the European Central Bank. The market is generally ready for this development, while simultaneously ignoring it, as the euro is not strengthening. There is no sense in expecting the BoE to raise rates after the April inflation report, given that inflation has slowed.

The geopolitical background still leaves much to be desired, as Iran and the US have come closer to resuming conflict and failing negotiations. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue, and according to the American president, they are "very successful." However, there has been no confirmation from Iran of the success of diplomacy. Quite the opposite. The parties regularly violate ceasefire conditions, and this week, Tehran outright expressed a desire to cease any diplomatic contacts with Washington.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade more volatily, as important reports will be released in the US. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1584-1.1591, while the British pound can be traded from the areas of 1.3380-1.3386 and 1.3456-1.3476. Geopolitics remains a key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.