As trading opens on Sunday evening in Asian markets, the steady growth in the number of jobs last month is expected to exert pressure on precious metal prices. Fresh data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, released on Friday, indicates that the number of non-farm jobs increased by 178,000 in March—significantly above the forecast, which anticipated a gain of about 65,000. The report notes that job growth was primarily observed in the healthcare, construction, transportation, and logistics sectors, while employment in federal agencies continued to decline. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from February's 4.4%, contrary to expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Since gold trading was paused for the Easter weekend, there was no immediate market reaction to the positive labor market data. However, some experts suggest that a strong report will allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a neutral stance on monetary policy amid rising inflation risks.

Recently, gold has been under pressure due to the conflict in Iran disrupting global supply chains, particularly in the energy sector, which has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. As a result, global inflation concerns have forced central banks to temporarily pause monetary easing.

Analysts emphasize that gold's return to its status as a safe-haven asset is only possible with weak economic indicators that would heighten fears of stagflation and push central banks toward rate cuts, even amid ongoing inflationary pressure.

In addition to strong macroeconomic data, the Fed received another signal: wage inflation came in below expectations. According to the report, average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% (nine cents), reaching $37.38, while the February figure increased by 0.4%. Economists were expecting a more robust 0.3% growth rate, indicating a slowdown in income dynamics. Additionally, the overall employment data was adjusted ambiguously: January figures were revised upward by 34,000 jobs (to 160,000), while February figures were revised downward by 41,000 (to -133,000).

Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, emphasized that most of the March data was compiled before the US and Israel launched military actions against Iran. According to him, this suggests the stability of the American economy. "To some extent, the reduced likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the Fed seems logical; at the same time, the report confirms that the labor market remains resilient, supporting consumer spending—the key driver of current economic growth," he noted.

From a technical perspective, regarding the dollar, despite Zaccarelli's forecasts of economic potential for a rate cut, the dollar is not ready to weaken, as indicated by oscillators in a positive zone. Meanwhile, gold is technically under pressure from sellers, with oscillators in a negative zone. However, the fact that prices have not fallen below the 200-day SMA leaves hope for bulls to overcome the 20-day SMA and gain control over bears.

It is important to note that Trump has previously extended the deadline for his ultimatum, claiming "progress in negotiations" (a claim Iran has repeatedly denied), so the possibility of this scenario repeating itself cannot be ruled out. In such a case, macroeconomic reports will again take center stage, especially since the economic calendar for the upcoming week is filled with important events for the EUR/USD pair.

Monday

On Monday, the ISM Services Index will be published in the US. The services sector accounts for about 70% of the country's GDP, so the market typically reacts sharply to changes in this indicator. According to preliminary forecasts, the index will remain in the expansion zone but will decrease to 54.8 after a sharp rise to 56.1. Such a result will support the dollar, especially against the backdrop of the rising ISM Manufacturing Index, which has hit nearly a four-year high.

It is also worth noting that April 6 is Easter Monday in many countries (including the US), so liquidity may be low on that day, while volatility may be high.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, mainly secondary reports will be released, such as the final estimates of the PMI indexes for March, the Sentix investor confidence indicator, and US consumer credit volume. The data on durable goods orders in the US is of particular interest. Moderate growth is expected: after a weak start to the year (with the January figure at 0.0%), the market hopes for recovery; however, the volatile component—aircraft manufacturing (Boeing orders)—could significantly distort the overall picture. Overall orders are expected to decrease by 1.0%, while the "cleaned" figure (excluding defense and aviation) is expected to increase by 0.5%. Even if the report comes in at the forecast level (especially the core figure), it will still support the dollar.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, the minutes from the March Federal Reserve meeting will be published. Recall that at the conclusion of this meeting, the Fed left all parameters of monetary policy unchanged, implementing the basic and most expected scenario. At the same time, Jerome Powell's rhetoric put pressure on the dollar, even though he assured markets that the central bank would keep rates at their current level until inflation began to slow on a stable basis. The dollar came under pressure amid "not hawkish enough" rhetoric from the Fed. Unlike the European Central Bank, the Fed does not consider tightening monetary policy and still allows for one rate cut by the end of the current year (according to the updated dot-plot forecast). The Fed minutes could either amplify or weaken the "effect of the March meeting." If cautious themes (concerns about economic growth and labor market conditions) prevail in the document, the dollar may again come under pressure, especially against the euro (as the divergence in the monetary paths of the ECB and the Fed favors EUR/USD buyers). However, in my view, the minutes are likely to reiterate the main points Powell raised. In other words, the central bank will likely emphasize inflation and adopt a wait-and-see stance. The option of raising rates will not be dominant if it is even mentioned in the minutes. In this case, the market will likely simply ignore the release.

Thursday

On Thursday, the final estimate of the US GDP for Q4 2025 will be published. Recall that the second estimate was revised downward (from 1.4% to 0.7%). Given that the third quarter ended with fairly strong growth of 4.4%, most analysts expect the final estimate to align with the second, leaving it at 0.7%. Any deviation from the "baseline" scenario could trigger significant volatility in the EUR/USD pair.

Additionally, on Thursday, the core PCE index will be published in the US—one of the key inflation indicators that the Fed closely monitors, as it better reflects long-term inflation trends. For three months (from November to January), it had been actively accelerating, rising to 3.1% in January. According to forecasts, the index is expected to remain at January's level in February. Such a result (and any result above three percent) will support the dollar.

The Unemployment Claims report, which will also be released on Thursday, may also influence the EUR/USD pair. But only if it significantly deviates from the forecast level (+210,000), meaning either falling below the 200,000 mark (unlikely) or exceeding the 230,000 target (also unlikely).

Friday

On Friday, all attention will be focused on another, no less important indicator of inflation in the US. We'll learn the CPI figure for March. The overall CPI is expected to show a strong increase—from 2.4% to 3.4% (the highest level since May 2024). This trend seems logical, as the main driver here is "black gold." The cost of automotive fuel in the US has already reached its highest level in nearly four years: the national average retail price of gasoline is $4.081 per gallon.

The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, is also expected to accelerate—from 2.5% to 2.7% (the highest level since September last year).

If the report comes in at least at the forecast level (not to mention in the green zone), the dollar will once again be "on top," as the market will definitively rule out the possibility of a Fed rate cut in the coming months.

Thus, we are expecting a busy, informative, and volatile week. The inflation reports and ISM Services are expected to support the US currency, allowing EUR/USD sellers to test the 14th figure area (the support level is at 1.1490, which corresponds to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe). A sustained rise in EUR/USD is only possible if Trump and Iran take mutual steps towards de-escalation in the Middle East. However, judging by the latest statements from both sides, such a scenario seems highly unlikely.

America will be the key and effectively the sole source of news next week. In fact, almost every weekend, I find myself saying the same thing, as the fate of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs depends on the American news background. Let me remind you that a couple of weeks ago, meetings of all three central banks took place, and the European banks adopted a rather hawkish stance, unlike the Fed. However, even this did not save the euro and the pound from new declines. Moreover, last Friday's labor market and unemployment data released in America were also ignored by markets.

Therefore, it is more accurate to say that the geopolitical backdrop will matter. As for economic data, I have significant doubts. In reality, a considerable number of important reports will come out of the US next week. But what relevance will they have if the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports were disregarded on Friday?

The week will start with the release of the ISM Services Index for March, continue with durable goods orders, Q4 GDP, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. It will conclude with the March inflation figures, which may spike by a full 1%. I consider the inflation report key, as strong price growth could prompt the FOMC to alter its monetary policy plans.

Currently, the plans call for maintaining interest rates at their current level until the end of the year; however, a significant rise in inflation could prompt the American central bank to reassess these plans.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (lower image) and, in the short term, has completed the formation of a downward wave structure. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, my readers can expect price increases over the coming week with targets located around 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale. Further movements of the instrument completely depend on events in the Middle East.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear five-wave bearish structure on the charts with an extension in the third wave. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we will see the formation of a minimum three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound may rise to the levels of 1.3429 and 1.3512, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale from the last downward wave set. Therefore, in my opinion, now is a good time to buy.

Key Principles Of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to work with and often entail changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market movement directions, and there never can be. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The British pound faces the same issues as the euro at the start of the new week. The wave analysis suggests the formation of an upward correction wave structure; however, geopolitical events may contribute to further declines in quotes. To be fair, the instrument could have continued its decline last Friday, when robust labor-market and unemployment data were released in the US. The data proved unexpectedly strong, which could have led to a sharp increase in demand for the US dollar. No one would have been surprised by another rise in the dollar's value. But it didn't happen. Will it be avoided on Monday?

In my view, the probability is 50/50. If Trump indeed launches a new missile strike on Iranian infrastructure, a response is inevitable, and a new rise in the dollar is unavoidable. The economic data (virtually none for the UK next week) will not change that. Therefore, the market remains in a position where economic news plays almost no role, while the geopolitical backdrop can break any wave analysis.

Based on everything mentioned above, the GBP/USD instrument's fate will again depend on geopolitics. Moreover, everything could be resolved in the coming hours, as Monday—April 6—Trump promised to "destroy Iran" on that date. It's unlikely that the US president will wait for Monday. A strike could be launched as early as Sunday night. However, let's not speculate, although that is all market participants have left to do. The market is closed, and no trader knows Trump's plans.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (lower image) and, in the short term, has completed the formation of a downward wave structure. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, my readers can expect price increases over the coming week with targets located around 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale. Further movements of the instrument depend entirely on events in the Middle East.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. We now see a clear five-wave downward structure with an extension in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we will see the formation of a minimum three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound could rise to the levels of 1.3429 and 1.3512, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale from the last downward wave set. Therefore, in my opinion, now is a good time to buy.

Key Principles Of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to work with and often entail changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market movement directions, and there never can be. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

What movement will the new week begin with? I believe this question currently interests all market participants, as no one understands what actions Donald Trump plans to take. Initially, the American president set a five-day deadline for Iran. Then he extended it to ten days. During this time, Iran was supposed to "gather itself" and sign agreements with the US, the terms of which remain unknown. Additionally, it was expected that the Strait of Hormuz would be unblocked. As of April 5 (a day before the deadline), Iran has made no official statements. Therefore, one can conclude that Trump's conditions, if not rejected, have also not been met. Thus, at the beginning of the new week, markets may anticipate a new escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.

What will this new escalation cause? In my opinion, the answer is obvious: a new rise in oil and gas prices and a renewed strengthening of the US dollar. The classic news background will be of little significance to market participants. What can traders focus on next week? The US will release a considerable amount of interesting reports, while the Eurozone will have a few less significant ones. But what kind of reaction should be expected to these events, considering that on Friday the market paid no attention to the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data?

Based on all of the above, I believe that next week's movements will be entirely dependent on geopolitical factors. Trump may order strikes on Iran as early as today. Therefore, Monday could be quite "hot." If a new escalation occurs, demand for the US currency will rise again, and the wave analysis of the EUR/USD instrument will hold little relevance. Of course, Trump could implement the TACO principle, but the White House leader has rarely resorted to it lately. I believe that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is inevitable.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of its trend (bottom image) and, in the short term, has completed its downward wave structure. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, my readers can expect price increases over the coming week, with targets around 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale. Further movements of the instrument are entirely dependent on events in the Middle East.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear five-wave bearish structure on the charts with an extension in the third wave. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not cause another crash in the instrument shortly, we will see the formation of a minimum three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound could rise to the levels of 1.3429 and 1.3512, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale from the last bearish wave set. Therefore, in my opinion, now is a good time to buy.

Key Principles Of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to work with and often entail changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market movement directions, and there never can be. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year; however, the wave structure of the trend now looks very ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and analyzing the simplest and smallest wave structures in order to make a short-term forecast, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and imply multiple possible scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade using standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulsive structure with an extended third wave. If this is indeed the case, then the formation of this structure has been completed, and we can expect a corrective sequence of at least three waves. Therefore, in the near future, one should expect a rise in the instrument's quotes, but within a correction relative to the latest trend segment. For now, recent wave structures fit poorly into the higher-level wave count, but the situation will become clearer over time. In the near term, the euro may recover toward the levels of 1.1666 and 1.1745.

The EUR/USD pair declined by several dozen basis points on Friday, while overall volatility remained low. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar after the release of Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data in the second half of the day turned out to be extremely weak. Therefore, I can almost immediately conclude that the market chose to ignore this data as well. Of course, there was some reaction from market participants, but hardly anyone expected that strong payrolls would result in just a few dozen points of dollar gains. However, by the end of the day, demand for the U.S. currency may increase more significantly.

Overall, market participants continue to show readiness to react only to geopolitical events. Many recent statements by Trump or senior Iranian officials have triggered strong reactions among traders. And Trump speaks quite frequently—several times a day. As a result, the market is now effectively reacting only to geopolitical news. Moreover, it is difficult to call these signals consistent. Not only do Washington and Tehran differ in rhetoric, but Trump's tone can vary even within a single speech. Nevertheless, yesterday the U.S. president once again threatened to "destroy Iran completely," which supported the dollar. The White House leader repeats similar statements daily, yet the market considers this information important—unlike labor market and unemployment reports.

Based on all of the above, the formation of the expected wave "c" will continue only if Trump shifts his rhetoric toward a more peaceful tone in the near future. In that case, EUR/USD would have a chance to rise at least toward the 1.17 area. After that, perhaps the "two weeks" Trump mentioned for resolving the conflict will expire.

General conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the short term it has completed a downward wave sequence. Since the five-wave impulsive structure is complete, readers may expect price growth over the next week with targets near 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels. Further movement will depend entirely on developments in the Middle East.

On a smaller timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-level wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. I would like to remind that it is better to identify clear and understandable structures on charts rather than strictly adhere to labeling every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Recently, Washington has shown a desire to end the war—but on its own terms. Iran, meanwhile, is willing to end it only on its own terms. Likely because Iran is still not ready to accept Washington's ultimatums, we are seeing constantly shifting rhetoric from Trump. We already saw how different the positions of the two sides are about a month ago. Thus, traders are alternately reacting to improvements and deteriorations in the geopolitical backdrop. For a stronger move in either the pound or the dollar, real evidence of de-escalation or escalation is needed—not just words.

The probability of a decline in both pairs remains quite high, and all current discussions about a possible bullish advance are merely assumptions without confirmation or facts. At the same time, I cannot ignore an important and relatively rare "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle. It represents three consecutive swings, each slightly lower or higher than the previous one, signaling the end of a bearish impulse (in this case). Thus, technical analysis suggests decent chances for a bullish move, but bulls urgently need geopolitical support. As long as the bullish trend remains intact (above the 1.3012 level), I would focus more on bullish signals. However, at present there are no clear bullish patterns or signals, and geopolitics could push the pound even lower at any moment.

On Friday, the news background provided opportunities for both bulls and bears to act—yes, both. Despite clearly positive data on the U.S. labor market and unemployment for March, the February Nonfarm Payrolls figure was revised downward to -133,000. It is still impossible to clearly determine whether the labor market is recovering. Traders did not even attempt to answer this question today, simply ignoring the data. Were there any reports at all?

In the U.S., the overall information backdrop suggests that, in the long term, nothing but dollar weakness should be expected. Even the war between Iran and the U.S. does little to change that. The situation for the U.S. dollar remains quite difficult in the long term and positive only in the short term. The labor market continues to struggle, the economy is increasingly approaching recession, the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not planning monetary tightening in 2026, and last weekend the fourth major wave of protests across the U.S. took place personally against Donald Trump. From an economic standpoint, there are no solid reasons for dollar growth.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive information backdrop for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. For now, geopolitics has been supporting the dollar for over a month, but this support will eventually fade. It is difficult to say when this will happen, so it cannot be ruled out that the U.S. currency may continue to rise for another week, month, or even several months.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

On April 6, the economic calendar contains one important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday may be present, but mainly in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish, but there are currently no active bullish patterns. The recent decline of the pair over the past few weeks has been so strong due to an unfortunate combination of circumstances. If Donald Trump had not initiated the conflict in the Middle East, we likely would not have seen such strong dollar growth. I believe this decline could end just as unexpectedly as it began. However, at present, the bearish phase cannot yet be considered over.

In the near term, traders can rely only on a signal within bearish imbalance 17. This signal has already formed, giving traders an opportunity to sell the pound with a target around the 1.3000 level. However, this signal may be contradicted by geopolitics, a potential bullish signal in the euro, and is already challenged by the bullish "Three Drives Pattern."

All of the U.S. dollar's growth over the past 4–5 weeks has been driven by geopolitics. Now, traders are moving back and forth, unsure of what to do. Trump alternates between wanting to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and shifting responsibility to other countries; between speaking about successful negotiations with Iran and promising to destroy it. We see the reflection of these events on the chart. I have repeatedly said that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the break of important trend-forming lows. The movement of the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if geopolitics continues to strongly support the dollar. However, at this moment, I still doubt the bears' ability to sustain a prolonged offensive. Further growth of the U.S. dollar is possible only if geopolitics continues to provide strong support to the bears. And, as I have said before, this would require the situation in the Middle East not just to remain difficult, but to worsen further.

The chart picture is beginning to transform and is becoming very interesting. First, the price may soon react to imbalance 11. This would already be the second reaction, which could be weaker—or may not occur at all. However, let me remind you that the bullish trend remains, and near imbalance 11 only a sell signal could form. Second, today the price may react to imbalance 12, thereby forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Another important point is the potential liquidity grabs from the last two bullish swings, which may coincide with the processing of imbalance 11. Thus, it is still too early to say that the bulls are launching a full-scale offensive, but the probability exists. The key factor is that a truce between Washington and Tehran must be achieved.

The news background on Friday was very strong, but traders ignored (at the time of writing) even these reports. If the figures had been mediocre and neutral, I would not be surprised by the lack of reaction. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in March, and Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 178,000 versus traders' expectations of 60,000. At the same time, February's figure was revised from -92,000 to -133,000. U.S. data certainly did not add clarity.

There are still many reasons for the bulls to attack, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline of the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the U.S. currency may strengthen amid a flight to safety, but this factor cannot support it indefinitely and requires ongoing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. There are no other strong supporting factors for the dollar. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but what will drive the bears further?

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

On April 6, the economic calendar contains one fairly important entry. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday may be noticeable in the second half of the day—unless traders ignore this report as well.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my opinion, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. The news background sharply changed direction four weeks ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered fully canceled or completed. Thus, in the near term, traders need new patterns and signals to form short-term forecasts and open positions.

In the near future, bears may receive a signal at imbalance 11, but if geopolitics does not worsen further, the signal may not form. Bulls, on the other hand, can look for a signal within imbalance 12, which would allow opening buy positions with a target around the 1.1670 level.

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for EUR/GBP

Ending the first week of April 2026 in a state of uncertainty and consolidating around 0.8720 after a bounce from support at 0.8700, EUR/GBP sits at the center of a clash between two stagflationary forces: the ECB is confronting accelerating inflation and slowing growth, while the Bank of England is weighing an energy shock against a cooling labor market. Trading activity remains subdued due to Good Friday observance, and technical indicators point to weakening bullish momentum.

Key factor: divergence between ECB and BoE monetary policies

March data for the eurozone showed worrying signs of stagflation: the composite PMI fell from 51.9 to 50.5, teetering on the verge of contraction. While the manufacturing PMI strengthened to 51.6, the services PMI slipped to 50.1.

Preliminary March inflation data showed HICP accelerating from 1.9% to 2.5% year on year — a peak since July 2024. Energy made the main contribution to this rise, moving into positive territory for the first time in a year, which will put pressure on the ECB's stance.

In the UK, unemployment remained at 5.2%, but job vacancies continued to decline, signaling a cooling labor market. The manufacturing PMI slowed from 51.4 to 51.0 (a six-month low), while the producers' input costs indicator recorded its sharpest monthly rise since 1992.

Retail sales in February fell from 2.2% to -0.4% month on month, with the main changes concentrated in food and durable goods, while CPI held at 3.0%, failing to show the expected slowdown.

At its March 19 meeting, the ECB kept the deposit rate at 2.0% but revised its forecasts: 2026 GDP growth was cut from 1.2% to 0.9%, and the inflation forecast was raised from 1.9% to 2.6%. The regulator warned that, if the US–Iran conflict continues, inflation could be even higher.

Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said that higher energy prices resulting from Mideast hostilities raise concerns about financial destabilization in the bloc, given high public debt in many European countries.

The Bank of England also left rates unchanged in March (at 3.75%) but raised its inflation forecast from 3.0% to 3.5%. In media interviews, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned investors not to price in imminent tightening and stressed that the next decision will require close attention to the full set of risks. Following these remarks, some economists cut expected rate rises this year from two to one.

Brief technical analysis and scenarios

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP reversed from monthly highs near 0.8740 and found support around 0.8700. Technical indicators show weakening bullish momentum, and thin volumes suggest that further consolidation is the most likely outcome.

- RSI(14): 4-hour and daily at 59 and weekly at 54, all remaining above the midline (50), signaling potential for further upside. However, bulls will need an additional impulse to break resistance near 0.8740 to confirm a bullish scenario.

Scenario A (base): consolidation in 0.8680–0.8740

The most likely outcome in the coming days is range trading between 0.8680 (EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and 0.8740.

Triggers:

- continued geopolitical tension, weighing on both currencies

- lack of clear signals from the ECB and BoE on next steps

- mixed economic data from both economies

Scenario B (bullish for EUR/GBP): break above 0.8740

Possible if:

- the ECB issues more hawkish signals amid accelerating inflation

- signs of deeper cooling in the UK economy emerge

- the likelihood of BoE rate hikes falls

Targets: a break of 0.8740 would open the way to 0.8790–0.8800, then 0.8900.

Scenario C (bearish for EUR/GBP): return to 0.8630

This would materialize if:

- the BoE delivers hawkish signals (contrary to Bailey's warnings)

- signs of a deeper eurozone recession appear

- de-escalation reduces energy prices

Targets: a break below 0.8680 would open the way to 0.8662 (EMA200 on the daily)–0.8650 (EMA50 on the weekly) and then 0.8630–0.8600.

Key events to monitor

- Next week: speeches by ECB and BoE officials — potential signals on the rate path

- April: eurozone and UK inflation releases — assessment of the energy shock impact

- During the month: developments around the Strait of Hormuz — key geopolitical driver

Conclusion

EUR/GBP is at the epicenter of a stagflationary divergence. The ECB faces accelerating inflation, up to 2.5% (a peak since July 2024), alongside slowing growth, while the Bank of England balances an energy shock against a cooling labor market (unemployment 5.2%, falling retail sales).

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned investors not to price in imminent tightening. At the same time, the ECB has revised forecasts toward weaker growth and higher inflation.

The key zone 0.8680–0.8740 will be the arena of the decisive battle in the coming days. Holding above 0.8700 will keep chances to test 0.8740 and higher, while a break below 0.8700 would open the way to 0.8680 and 0.8660–0.8650.

Under any scenario, volatility will remain high. Investors should closely watch developments around the Strait of Hormuz and, importantly, rhetoric from ECB and BoE officials ahead of May meetings. As Bailey noted, the next decision will require careful attention to the totality of risks. Success will favor those who can weigh the balance between the ECB's hawkish inflation risks and the Bank of England's warnings amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

The GBP/USD pair is showing a moderate recovery after a slight decline the previous day. Market activity remains limited due to Good Friday, which is restraining short-term price fluctuations.

The British pound is receiving limited support, as market participants continue to expect two interest rate hikes by the Bank of England in 2026 amid rising energy prices and increasing inflation risks. However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey previously noted that such forecasts may be overly optimistic, which has reduced investor confidence in aggressive monetary policy tightening.

Meanwhile, the upward potential of the GBP/USD pair remains limited, as the U.S. dollar is strengthening due to increased demand for safe-haven assets following recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran.

Trump warned of the likelihood of military action in the coming two to three weeks and issued strong threats, without specifying what measures would be taken to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that recent U.S. strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force Tehran to retreat, describing them as a sign of the opponent's moral and political crisis.

Additional pressure on the market comes from comments by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who expressed concern about rising oil prices. He noted that persistently high energy prices could complicate the fight against inflation, especially if gasoline prices accelerate, which could further boost inflation expectations.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading below key moving averages, and oscillators are negative. Therefore, any near-term recovery in the pair is likely to be viewed as a selling opportunity.

Ahead of the U.S. trading session, market participants are focused on the release of important macroeconomic indicators that could significantly impact the dollar's exchange rate. The key data will be the U.S. labor market figures for March. The report on changes in nonfarm employment is expected. This indicator is one of the most relevant for assessing the state of the U.S. economy, as it reflects activity across most sectors.

Given the sharp decline in employment in February, many expect a solid rebound in March. Stronger-than-forecast figures could signal increased economic activity and rising inflationary pressure, while weaker results may raise concerns about a slowdown in growth.

At the same time, data on the unemployment rate will be released, which is also a crucial barometer of labor market health. A decline in unemployment is traditionally seen as a positive signal, indicating high employment and stable demand for labor.

In addition, investors will focus on average hourly earnings. Growth in this indicator may point to rising disposable income, which in turn stimulates consumer activity.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1557 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1593 and 1.1628
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1516 may lead to a decline toward 1.1485 and 1.1445

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3248 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3282 and 1.3317
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3213 may lead to a decline toward 1.3182 and 1.3162

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.75 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.95 and 160.20
• Selling on a breakout below 159.50 may lead to dollar selling toward 159.30 and 159.10

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1554 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1526 followed by a return to this level

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3247 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3213 followed by a return to this level

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6921 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6901 followed by a return to this level

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3929 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3912 followed by a return to this level

The US dollar has strengthened by roughly 2% during the conflict, benefiting from its safe-haven status and the US being a net energy exporter. Over the same period, Brent has jumped by 50%. Clearly, the greenback is not keeping pace with oil. Why?

Performance of USD and oil prices

MUFG Bank cites three reasons. First is Trump's policy behavior. His swings during past trade conflicts catalyzed USD weakness. Today, the president alternately threatens and retreats, which does not build confidence in the dollar. At the same time, the White House's inability to decisively resolve the Middle East conflict is perceived as weakness. Previously, there was no real alternative to the petro-dollar for oil settlements. The Iran war has opened the door to alternatives. Investors are increasingly discussing a shift toward the petro-yuan.

The second reason is timeless. Before the Middle East confrontation, investors expected the Bank of England to cut the repo rate twice in 2026 and the ECB to hold interest rates through year-end. At the start of April, the futures market prices in about three ECB and BoE tightening moves by December. Derivatives, meanwhile, expect no hikes from the Fed. Money typically flows where rates are higher — yet it hasn't rushed out of the United States.

Finally, the third reason is the lingering market hope for a quick de-escalation and a return to the status quo. If that illusion persists, EUR/USD will struggle to break substantially below current levels.

US employment and unemployment dynamics

US labor data is unlikely to spoil the mood of EUR/USD bears. Past experience shows even a massive payroll surprise — a 92k drop in February — produced only a temporary dollar pullback. A miss versus the Bloomberg consensus of 60k for March would likely elicit a similar market reaction. Conversely, strong labor data would support further greenback gains against major currencies.

Technically, EUR/USD is consolidating within a fair-value range of 1.1505–1.1635 on the daily chart. A break below its lower boundary at 1.1505 would be a trigger to add short euro positions vs. the dollar. As an alternative strategy, consider going short on a rebound at fair value around 1.1590 or the pivot level of 1.1615.

Due to low market volatility, the levels I outlined were not tested in the first half of the day, so I did not enter any trades.

The U.S. trading session will feature the release of key statistical data for March. Reports are expected on nonfarm employment, the U.S. unemployment rate, changes in average hourly earnings, and the PMI for the services sector.

Particular attention will be paid to the change in nonfarm payrolls. A strong increase in job creation will serve as convincing evidence of the resilience of the U.S. economy, which is positive for the dollar under current conditions. A decline in the unemployment rate will be a positive signal, demonstrating the economy's ability to effectively absorb labor resources. However, if unemployment remains unchanged or begins to rise, this may indicate underlying structural problems.

As for the U.S. services PMI, a reading above 50 traditionally indicates expansion in business activity in the services sector, which is the main driver of the U.S. economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.75 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth to 160.09 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.09, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). The pair can be expected to rise today in case of strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 159.49 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.75 and 160.09 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks the 159.49 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.15, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move upward from that level). Pressure on the pair may increase further today after weak data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 159.75 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.49 and 159.15 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Due to low market volatility, the levels I outlined were not tested in the first half of the day, so I did not enter any trades.

During the U.S. session, we expect the release of data on changes in U.S. nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate. These macroeconomic indicators will undoubtedly have a significant impact on further market movement, shaping trader sentiment ahead of the weekend.

Particular attention will be paid to the nonfarm payrolls figure. Strong growth in new jobs will confirm the resilience of the economic recovery, which may strengthen expectations of a more cautious approach by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. The unemployment rate is another cornerstone in labor market analysis. A decline in unemployment—especially if accompanied by job growth—will be a positive signal for the dollar.

Data on average hourly earnings and the services sector PMI are also important. An increase in average hourly wages may indicate inflationary pressure, which in turn could accelerate the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates—especially considering current energy prices. As for the PMI index, a reading above 50 traditionally signals an expansion in business activity in the services sector, which dominates the U.S. economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3244 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth to 1.3282 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3282, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). Pound growth today can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3220 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3244 and 1.3282 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks the 1.3220 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3175, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move upward from that level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3244 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3220 and 1.3175 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Due to low market volatility, the levels I outlined were not tested in the first half of the day, so I did not enter any trades.

Before the opening of the U.S. trading session, all investors' attention is focused on the upcoming release of key macroeconomic data, which is expected to significantly influence the dollar's position. In particular, a report reflecting changes in U.S. nonfarm employment is scheduled for release. Figures exceeding forecasts may indicate a steady economic recovery, which would reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve. Among other important releases are unemployment data, another key indicator of labor market health. A decline in unemployment is usually interpreted as a positive trend, indicating high employment levels and strong demand for labor. Finally, the March PMI for the services sector will help assess the current state of the largest sector of the U.S. economy. If this indicator shows positive dynamics and exceeds the 50-point mark, it will indicate an expansion of business activity in this sector, which would support the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1554 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth to 1.1576. At 1.1576, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. You can only expect euro growth today after weak U.S. labor market data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1535 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1554 and 1.1576 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1535 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1500, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move upward from that level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1554 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1535 and 1.1500 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The USD/CHF pair is showing stability after rising by more than 0.5% the previous day and is holding near the round level of 0.800. No significant price fluctuations are observed, as market activity remains subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.

The U.S. dollar continues to hold its position against most global currencies due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, driven by rising geopolitical tensions following recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran. Trump warned of a possible escalation of military action within the next two to three weeks and once again issued harsh threats, although he has not yet specified concrete steps to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that U.S. strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force Tehran to change its position, describing them as a sign of internal crisis and moral decline on the part of the opponent.

On the U.S. dollar side, investor attention is focused on comments from Federal Reserve officials. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern about rising oil prices, noting that this factor could complicate the fight against inflation, especially if fuel price increases fuel inflation expectations. At the same time, the Dallas Fed President supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the latest FOMC meeting, emphasizing that the labor market has shown signs of stabilization since late 2025, although job creation remains weak.

In Switzerland, annual inflation accelerated to 0.3% in March from 0.1%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast but reaching its highest level in the past year. The increase in prices is largely linked to rising energy costs amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, inflation remains near the lower bound of the Swiss National Bank's target range (0–2%), reducing the likelihood of a revision to current monetary policy.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above key moving averages, and oscillators remain positive. Resistance lies at the round level of 0.800, after which the pair may challenge the March high. The main support is at the 200-day SMA. If this level fails to hold, prices could accelerate downward toward the 100-day SMA, near the round level of 0.7900. However, as long as oscillators remain positive, the bulls are ready to prevail.

The current conjuncture suggests that selling pressure continues to outweigh buying interest. This may indicate market participants' uncertainty or the presence of other factors restraining active Bitcoin purchases, despite the inflow of institutional capital.

The drop in overall demand, including from retail investors, can be caused by various reasons. These include, for example, concerns related to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Despite interest from large players, their investments may not be enough to offset the shortfall in demand at a broader level.

Yes, Bitcoin purchases by exchange-traded funds and by Michael Saylor's Strategy fund continue, but this is insufficient to ease the pressure. CryptoQuant reports that 30-day ETF purchases surged last month to about 50,000 BTC — the highest level since October 2025 — while 30-day accumulation at Strategy amounted to roughly 44,000 BTC.

Large Bitcoin holders, or whales, have reduced their holdings to 188,000 Bitcoin over the past year, the firm says. After buying over 200,000 Bitcoin in 2024, whales began trimming positions from mid-2025, with the pace of reductions accelerating in late 2025 and early 2026.

Historically, sustained negative accumulation by large players coincides with periods of prolonged price weakness, which is what we are now observing in the market.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $68,000, which opens a direct route to $69,600, and from there to $71,400. The most distant target is the high around $72,500; breaching that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $66,300. A fall below that area could quickly push BTC toward $64,900. The furthest target there would be around $62,600.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,105 opens a direct route to $2,175. The most distant target is the high near $2,238; breaching that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,037. A drop below that area could quickly send ETH toward $1,968. The furthest target there would be around $1,911.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for GBP/AUD

The GBP/AUD pair ends the first week of April in a state of acute uncertainty, reflecting a complex interplay of monetary expectations and geopolitical risks. While the Bank of England remains cautious, warning about overstated rate hike expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia faces rising stagflation risks, and markets price in up to a 55% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting. Trading activity remains subdued because of Good Friday observance, and attention is focused on the upcoming US employment data.

Current situation: NFP watch and monetary policy divergence

On Friday, April 3, many trading venues are closed for Good Friday, leading to lower liquidity and elevated volatility at the Monday open. Traders are cautious ahead of the key US March employment report (Nonfarm Payrolls), due at 12:30 GMT.

At its March 19 meeting, the Bank of England left the policy rate at 3.75% but revised up inflation forecasts from 3.0% to 3.5%. At the same time, inflation expectations among UK businesses rose: most respondents now expect 12-month inflation of 3.7%, not 3.4% as previously forecast, reaching last October's high.

However, in media interviews, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey warned that investors should not price in imminent tightening and that the next decision will require careful consideration of the full set of risks. Based on these remarks, some economists reduced their expectations for the number of rate increases this year from two to one.

In Australia, the situation is different. Higher energy prices related to the Middle East conflict are pushing inflation up and strengthening expectations of further RBA rate hikes amid growing stagflationary risks. As of April 1, ASX futures on the 30-day interbank rate for May 2026 imply a 55% probability of a rate increase to 4.35% at the next RBA meeting.

Economists, meanwhile, forecast that the RBA will deliver three more rate hikes in 2026, taking the cash rate to 4.85% — a level not seen since November 2008.

Australia's external trade data, which were positive, support the view of tighter RBA policy: the trade surplus widened to AUD 5.69 billion, more than double the January reading. Exports rose 4.9% month on month, helped by an almost 30% jump in gold shipments, while imports fell 3.2%.

Exports of key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and LNG remained weak, which points to insufficient underlying demand.

It should also be noted that the most recent Australian macro data do not yet reflect the impact of the Middle East conflict, and potential effects are expected to appear in March reporting.

China, Australia's key trading partner, released a services PMI that fell to 52.1 in March from 56.7 in February, below expectations. AUD reacted fairly calmly to these figures.

Today, as noted above, the March US Nonfarm Payrolls report is due at 12:30 GMT. Market consensus expects 60,000 new jobs after a disappointing -92,000 in February, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.4%. However, some economists see upside risk to a dovish outcome and expect a softer print of around 30,000.

Weak data could weigh on the dollar and support both majors (GBP and AUD). It is important to note that because of Good Friday, the immediate market reaction may be muted and volumes low, with a delayed response at the Monday open.

Outlook: two scenarios

Scenario A (the main one): continued pressure, AUD rises

The likeliest scenario in the coming weeks is continued pressure on GBP/AUD toward 1.9000 (EMA144 on the monthly chart)–1.8860 (February lows). Hawkish RBA expectations (55% odds for a May hike) and Australia's stagflation risks may, paradoxically, support AUD as higher rates attract capital.

Triggers for this scenario:

- sustained high oil prices

- confirmation of hawkish signals from the RBA

- a cautious stance from the Bank of England

Scenario B (bearish for AUD): AUD drops

This would materialize if:

- oil prices fall below $90 amid de-escalation

- signs of a slowdown in Australia's economy emerge (weak iron ore and coal exports)

- the Bank of England delivers hawkish signals (contrary to Bailey's warnings)

Targets: a return to 1.9240 (EMA50 on the daily chart)–1.9450 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

Conclusion

GBP/AUD is at the epicenter of a fundamental divergence. The Bank of England remains cautious and warns that rate hike expectations are overstated. The Reserve Bank of Australia, conversely, faces rising stagflation risks, and markets price in up to a 55% probability of a May rate hike.

The key zone 1.9000–1.9240 will be the arena of the decisive battle in the coming days. Holding above it will keep chances for a recovery to 1.9400–1.9450, but a break below will open the road to 1.8700–1.8500.

Under any scenario, volatility will remain high. Investors should closely monitor today's US employment data (NFP), developments around the Strait of Hormuz, and, importantly, rhetoric from RBA and BOE officials ahead of their May meetings. As Governor Bailey noted, the next decision will require careful attention to the full set of risks. Success will favor those who can weigh the balance between hawkish RBA expectations and the BOE's warnings amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

This seemingly unusual alliance between the legendary boxer and one of the most controversial tokens of recent months raises important questions about the relationship between celebrities, cryptocurrencies, and their influence on market sentiment.

Attracting celebrities to promote crypto projects is by no means a new tactic. Historically, such star endorsements have often generated notable hype and, as a result, a surge in demand for the promoted tokens. The mechanism is simple: a familiar name inspires trust and interest among a broad audience that may be less informed about a project's fundamentals and may treat the event as a signal to invest. This creates an information shock based on emotional response rather than sober analysis.

However, as is rightly noted, the primary beneficiaries of such events are usually the token creators and possibly the invited celebrity speaker. For creators, this is a unique opportunity to draw attention to their project, significantly increase turnover and market capitalization, and attract new investors willing to take on risk in search of potential returns. Investors, on the other hand, often risk buying tokens at the peak of the hype only to watch them fall later when initial interest fades and promised prospects do not materialize.

In light of the above, it is extremely important to remain calm and subject such news to critical analysis. Investments based on celebrity endorsements, without proper study of the project's fundamentals, technological base, development team, and long-term strategy, may carry high risks.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $68,000, which opens a direct route to $69,600, and from there to $71,400. The most distant target is the high around $72,500; breaching that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $66,300. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $64,900. The furthest target there would be around $62,600.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,105 opens a direct route to $2,175. The most distant target is the high near $2,238; breaching that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,037. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly send ETH toward $1,968. The furthest target there would be around $1,911.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Meanwhile, well-known crypto investor and financier Peter Brandt said that Bitcoin is unlikely to return to its ATH this year. In his view, in September–October of this year, Bitcoin will return to its lows or slightly below, where the bottom of the downtrend will be formed. After that, a recovery will begin within a new "bull" cycle. Mr. Brandt also said he expects to see a new all?time high in Q2 next year. Further movement of Bitcoin will depend on whether it can expand its role in the global financial system. If "digital gold" ceases to be only an investment instrument, its price could rise many times over.

Interestingly, Brandt's forecast is based solely on the observation that after each bull trend, Bitcoin went into about a one?year correction during which it lost up to 70–80% of its value. The next September–October is exactly one year from the start of the current bear trend. Brandt did not explain why Bitcoin cannot fall, for example, to $30,000, nor did he explain the basis for a return to $126,000 next year. Many experts continue to build their forecasts purely on faith in Bitcoin's perpetual rise.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues forming a full-fledged downtrend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. But even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. Of the POI areas at this time, only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe can be noted, within which a signal may form in the coming hours. On the 4?hour timeframe, Bitcoin's price action again shows all the characteristics of a range, so it's worth monitoring only deviations from the boundaries of the sideways channel.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily timeframe, a downtrend and a correction against it continue to form. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the move triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. After this move, Ethereum has already plunged about 55%, or roughly $2,500. In the near term, Ethereum may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction ends sooner or later. On the 4?hour timeframe, Ethereum has worked off all recent FVGs quite well, and last night it reacted to a new bearish FVG, from which the daily downtrend may resume. Bitcoin may also react to a bearish FVG on the daily timeframe. However, Bitcoin also remains range?bound...

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

His prime-time address, five weeks after the start of the convoluted conflict with Iran, further underlined a growing defensive stance amid rising pressure on global sea lanes, gas prices and his political party.

Addressing the nation, Trump said the US campaign is nearing completion, attempting to dispel growing public skepticism. However, despite the rhetoric, the speech lacked specifics — most notably, there were no firm timelines for a full troop withdrawal. Moreover, the president promised to launch more aggressive actions over the next two to three weeks, possibly including strikes on power plants, which undoubtedly injected another element of uncertainty into already unsettled markets.

The president also offered no new arguments or explanations to justify military action; instead, he once again reiterated his intention to dismantle Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. That rhetoric, seemingly meant to bolster resolve, in practice only heightened anxiety, since no concrete steps were announced to achieve this ambitious aim.

Likewise, on the question of reopening the Strait of Hormuz — the vital energy corridor that remains blocked — no concrete plan of action was presented. The absence of a clear strategy on this key issue fuels concerns about further destabilization of global energy supplies and the impact on the world economy.

Acknowledgement of the domestic political problems worries his party. Trump briefly touched on gasoline prices — a key psychological indicator of the state of the US economy — which have exceeded $4 per gallon in recent days. "When the war is over, gas prices will fall quickly. Stock prices will rise quickly again," Trump said.

Speaking about the nearly five-week-long conflict that has claimed thousands of lives, Trump added: "We had to take this small trip to Iran to get rid of this terrible threat."

The currency market's reaction to his remarks and to global developments was swift, reviving demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, and the situation is unlikely to change in the near term.

As for the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on taking the 1.1550 level. Only that will allow them to target 1.1590. From there, they can push to 1.1630, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. The furthest target is the high at 1.1662. I expect robuts activity from major buyers only if the instrument falls to around 1.1515. If there is no one there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1485 or to open long positions from 1.1445.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the immediate resistance at 1.3250. Only that will allow them to target 1.3280, above which a breakthrough will be rather difficult. The furthest target is around 1.3300. If the currency pair declines, bears will try to seize control of 1.3215. If they succeed, a breakout from the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.3180, with a potential target at 1.3160.

Donald Trump warned of an escalation of military action against Iran, without providing clarity on the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian representative Garibabadi said Tehran will soon begin talks with Oman.

Today, on Friday, during the European session the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $105.00 per barrel. Over the past week, WTI prices have gained more than 10%, driven by growing concerns about disruptions to crude supplies after renewed threats against Iran by US President Donald Trump.

Trump said he intends to step up military action against Tehran in the next two to three weeks, again issuing hardline statements, but did not specify concrete measures to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that US attacks on civilian infrastructure will not force Iran to change its position, describing them as evidence of the opposing side's internal instability and moral crisis.

According to regional reports, Iran and Oman are preparing a protocol governing oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but initial optimism about these talks quickly faded. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Garibabadi told Sputnik that the draft agreement is in its final stage and Tehran intends to soon begin official consultations with Oman on the creation of a joint coordination mechanism.

At the same time, the United Kingdom has initiated virtual talks with nearly 40 countries to discuss possible ways to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The US is not taking part in these discussions — President Trump previously said that ensuring the route's functioning is not America's responsibility, and urged European allies to "deal with their own oil."

From a technical standpoint, oil is trading above all moving averages, the MACD histogram has flattened, indicating a weakening of momentum. Nevertheless, oscillators are in positive territory and far from overbought levels, confirming a positive outlook.

The USD/JPY pair is holding near the 159.70 level after yesterday's rise. However, the pair's momentum remains limited amid reduced market activity due to the Good Friday holiday.

The Japanese yen is struggling, coming under pressure from the U.S. dollar amid growing uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's next steps. Although the Bank of Japan has hinted at a possible key interest rate hike as early as this month, market participants still doubt whether the central bank is ready to provide clear forward guidance before its meeting scheduled for April 28.

As Reuters notes, on Friday a senior Bank of Japan official stated that the central bank intends to continue gradually raising rates if economic forecasts remain valid. These comments support expectations of monetary policy tightening, even as recent surveys show increasing pressure on companies due to rising energy prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Executive Director Koji Nakamura emphasized in parliament that rising oil prices pose risks to economic growth, but can support core inflation and strengthen long-term inflation expectations.

The USD/JPY pair remains stable, supported by the U.S. dollar, which is strengthening due to increased investor interest in safe-haven assets. The heightened demand for the dollar is linked to rising geopolitical tensions following harsh statements by U.S. President Donald Trump toward Iran. The American leader did not specify what steps would be taken to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but warned of a possible escalation of military actions in the coming weeks. In response, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that U.S. strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force Tehran to retreat, calling them evidence of discord and moral decline on the part of the opponent.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above all moving averages, and oscillators remain positive. The pair encountered resistance at the 159.70 level. If it breaks above this level, it may challenge the March high. The nearest support lies at the 9-day EMA and the 20-day SMA. If these levels fail to hold, prices may fall to 158.25 and then to the round level of 158.00. However, as long as oscillators remain positive, the bulls are ready to prevail.

The wave situation on the hourly chart is becoming quite complex. All recent waves have formed within roughly the same price range and are approximately equal in size. Thus, it would be most logical to conclude that a sideways trend is present. In my view, this is not a sideways trend at all. Rather, these are completely unreadable movements formed as a result of constantly changing geopolitical conditions. At present, traders simply do not understand what to expect next in the Middle East.

On Thursday, there was essentially no news background in the U.S. or the Eurozone, apart from a secondary indicator on unemployment claims. Traders paid almost no attention to it—just as they have ignored many other reports and events recently. The market continues to react only to geopolitical news—and often not even to confirmed news, but to reports lacking any solid evidence. Over the past 3–4 weeks, traders have repeatedly fallen into the "Trump trap," as he continuously makes contradictory statements regarding the war in the Middle East, and traders regularly take the bait. Even by looking at the pair's movements over the past month, it is easy to see how frequently trader sentiment changes—constantly. This indicates that traders do not understand what to expect next in the Middle East, and Trump only adds to the confusion. As a result, sharp, erratic movements may persist for some time until clarity emerges regarding relations between Iran and the United States. Economic data remains in the background—even the most important reports.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Thus, the downward process may continue toward the same Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1474. Earlier, the pair closed above a descending trend channel, which slightly improves the prospects for the bulls compared to the bears. However, geopolitics remains the decisive factor. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed another 12,861 long positions and 1,008 short positions. Thus, over just six weeks, the bulls' total advantage has evaporated. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 200,000, while short positions amount to 190,000. Six weeks ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment in different ways. At present, all market attention is focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to intensify and expand geographically. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the dollar is extracting maximum benefit from this situation.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).

On April 3, the economic calendar contains two entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may become noticeable in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair was possible after closing below the 1.1577 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1440. These positions can be kept open for some time (for example, until the U.S. session). Buy positions will become possible after a consolidation above the 1.1577 level with a target of 1.1696.

Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation has once again shifted to "bearish." The last completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points, while the last downward wave confidently broke the previous low. The news background remains weak for the pound, and geopolitics gives bears almost complete dominance in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the strengthening of the U.S. currency in recent months. Bulls can only hope for the end of the war in the Middle East, a drop in oil prices, and a ceasefire by all parties to the conflict.

The news background on Thursday strongly supported the bears, as Donald Trump once again shocked the market with new threats against Iran. Despite the fact that the U.S. president regularly uses peaceful rhetoric, last night he again promised to destroy Iran and send it back to the Stone Age. Traders reacted unambiguously—with selling. Today, important reports on the U.S. labor market and unemployment will be released. In my opinion, this time they will have the status of "simply important," since Jerome Powell stated just this week that the FOMC committee is in a favorable position. This favorable position lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait and observe the development of the inflation process associated with the sharp rise in energy prices. Thus, unemployment and the labor market will not determine the outcome of the FOMC's monetary policy vote in the near future. Nevertheless, the reports remain important, and traders will not ignore them. Therefore, I expect increased trader activity in the second half of the day.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the downward trend channel, which gave the bulls absolutely nothing. A rebound from the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3340 was completed, followed by a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar, and a new decline began. A consolidation of the pair below the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.3215 will increase the probability of a further decline toward the level of 1.3044. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became even more bearish over the last reporting week. For seven consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have been actively increasing sales and reducing purchases. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 2,166, while the number of short positions decreased by 4,927. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively as follows: 46 thousand versus 105 thousand. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East.

Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer currency compared to the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic future. However, in recent months, first a correction began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only reason for the strengthening of the U.S. currency.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).

On April 3, the economic calendar contains two important entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday could be strong. If Trump makes new statements and threats, it could be doubly strong.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.3341–1.3352 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3199–1.3214. The target has been reached. New sales are possible upon closing below the 1.3199–1.3214 level with targets of 1.3139 and 1.3016. Buying today is possible on a rebound from the 1.3199–1.3214 level with a target of 1.3341–1.3352.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.