Against the backdrop of falling prices, he highlighted a critical vulnerability in the capital structure of Strategy—a well-known institutional buyer of Bitcoin in recent years. Schiff noted that the preferred series shares STRC had fallen to $94.85 against a $100 par value, pushing the current dividend yield to 12.12%. The mechanics of the trap are simple and brutal: the lower STRC trades relative to par, the more costly servicing dividend obligations become for the company in relative terms.

If Bitcoin continues to decline, that dynamic accelerates the erosion of cash reserves and brings forward the point at which Strategy may be forced to sell increasing amounts of bitcoin to fund payments. Issuing new preferred shares at a discount in such conditions only deepens the debt hole.

Schiff's argument carries a political dimension as well. He says Republicans made a strategic error by publicly tying themselves to the Bitcoin narrative: Mr. Trump promised to make the United States the Bitcoin capital of the world to secure votes and financing from the crypto industry while his family simultaneously profited from personal crypto projects. When the Bitcoin train derails, Schiff argues, Democrats will immediately use the losses of millions of investors as political ammunition and a pretext for the toughest possible regulation of the entire sector.

Schiff's principal thesis follows the classic bubble logic: first the asset absorbs enormous sums of money, then it bursts, and the larger the inflows, the more painful the fallout.

The counterargument is not trivial: Bitcoin has survived multiple 70–80 percent drawdowns and each time has recovered. But the current situation differs from past cycles in a key respect: for the first time, public reserves, the balance sheets of listed companies with debt obligations, and the political reputations of senior government figures are materially involved.

Trading recommendations:

Buyers of BTC are targeting a return to $64,400, a level that would open a direct path to $65,800 and then to $67,700. A break above $67,700 will signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $62,600. A return below that area could quickly push BTC toward $61,100, with a farther target at $59,600.

As for Ethereum, a clear hold above $1,783 would open a direct route to $1,838. The farther target is the high near $1,901; a break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,724. A fall below that level could rapidly send ETH toward $1,645, with a deeper target at $1,593.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

"I am increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability," she said at an event in El Paso.

Her logic is simple and consistent. The labor market is balanced, investment in artificial intelligence is accelerating, and financial conditions are accommodative—in other words, current policy is at best neutral and perhaps stimulative. With inflation having exceeded the target for more than five years and now accelerating again, that combination is unacceptable.

Recall that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, rose 3.8 percent year-on-year in April, nearly double the target, while the private sector added 122,000 jobs in May 2026—the strongest monthly gain since January 2025 and above the 117,000 forecast. The figure rose from a revised April reading of 105,000 and confirmed that the labor market retains momentum heading into the summer hiring season.

It is important to note that Logan is a voting FOMC member this year, and she already dissented at the April meeting over language that hinted that cuts might be the next step. Her warning that inflation could remain anchored above target is not mere rhetoric but a signal that she is prepared to vote for tightening. The principal indicator she watches is the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean measure, a metric that the new chair, Kevin Warsh, has spoken highly of.

Notably, New York Fed President John Williams took a materially different view on the same day: he said monetary policy is in roughly the right place and that he saw no clear need to raise or cut rates. That divergence within the committee is exactly what makes upcoming Fed meetings unpredictable.

Logan is clearly in the hawkish camp, while Williams favors a pause. Chair Warsh has not yet publicly defined his stance, and markets will watch his first signals closely. Hawkish rhetoric is generally positive for the dollar.

Buyers of EUR/USD should consider taking 1.1630. That will allow a test of 1.1660. From there a move to 1.1690 is possible, although advancing beyond that level without support from major participants will be difficult. The farther target is 1.1730. On the downside, only buying interest around 1.1605 is likely to prompt significant action from large buyers. If that support is absent, it will be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1585 or to consider long entries from 1.1535.

As for GBP/USD, buyers should clear the nearest resistance at 1.3440 to target 1.3475. Breaking above that level may prove difficult, with a further target at 1.3510. If the pair falls, bears will seek control at 1.3410. A decisive break below 1.3410 would likely inflict serious damage on long positions and could push GBP/USD toward 1.3370, with downside extending to 1.3340.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair remains relatively resilient below the 1.1600 level and continues to attract buying interest. This has helped offset part of the losses recorded during the previous session, when the pair came under significant selling pressure and fell to weekly lows. Nevertheless, a substantial recovery in the euro is unlikely in the near term due to uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and ahead of Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Market sentiment improved after Lebanon and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement following talks in Washington, reducing the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East. This development weakened demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.

In addition, growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could raise interest rates by 25 basis points later this month are providing support to the euro and helping sustain current price levels.

However, bullish sentiment remains limited due to the lack of meaningful progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and the renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf. On Tuesday, U.S. military officials reported successfully intercepting Iranian missiles and drones launched toward Kuwait and Bahrain, followed by retaliatory strikes against Iran's Qeshm Island. Iran subsequently launched attacks against U.S. military facilities in Bahrain in response to those actions.

These developments have increased geopolitical risks and contributed to higher oil prices, which have resumed their upward trend over the past three days, reviving concerns about inflationary pressures.

Investors appear convinced that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will maintain a hawkish stance amid rising energy prices driven by military conflict. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, traders currently assign a 50% probability to at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year.

These factors, combined with ongoing tensions involving Iran, are likely to continue supporting the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency. As a result, caution is warranted before initiating aggressive long positions in EUR/USD. Traders may prefer to wait for the release of the monthly U.S. employment report—widely known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)—for additional clues regarding the Federal Reserve's next policy steps. The report could significantly influence U.S. dollar performance and provide fresh directional momentum for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, oscillators remain in negative territory, indicating that bears retain the upper hand. The pair is trading below all major moving averages, which further supports a bearish outlook. However, it is worth noting that both the 100-period and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are moving sideways, suggesting that the broader market remains range-bound rather than firmly trending.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains relatively straightforward. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous high, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. As a result, the trend has shifted to bullish. However, bulls will only be able to extend their advance if Iran and the United States reach an interim agreement, stop violating the ceasefire terms, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. Without these developments, a sustained rally will be extremely difficult to achieve.

Wednesday's U.S. economic data provided additional support for the bears. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 points in May, exceeding market expectations of 53.8. Earlier, the ISM Manufacturing PMI also came in above forecasts. In addition, the ADP employment report released yesterday deserves attention, despite often being overshadowed by the Nonfarm Payrolls report. According to ADP data, total employment increased by 122,000 in May, surpassing analysts' expectations.

Therefore, yesterday's bearish pressure was entirely justified, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. It is worth recalling that this week Iran announced the suspension of negotiations with the United States (whether this proves to be final remains unclear), carried out strikes against Kuwait, and the much-discussed agreement repeatedly mentioned by Donald Trump has yet to materialize. As a result, demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset continues to rise. For euro bulls, the encouraging aspect is that this demand remains relatively moderate and gradual.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade within a horizontal range between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% level at 1.1667. Market participants remain cautious and are not rushing to establish new positions or draw firm conclusions. Given the relatively subdued price action seen in recent weeks, I recommend focusing primarily on the hourly chart. The rejection from the 1.1667 level favored the U.S. dollar. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 10,196 long positions and 6,109 short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict involving Iran. Over the past nine weeks, market positioning has become more balanced amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. Speculators currently hold 223,000 long positions and 193,000 short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

From a longer-term perspective, large institutional traders continue to show greater interest in the euro. Naturally, global developments of various kinds—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's primary focus remains on the Middle East, where the conflict has been paused rather than fully resolved. Consequently, the direction of the euro and the U.S. dollar in the near term is likely to depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar: United States and Eurozone

Eurozone - Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (08:00 UTC)

Eurozone - Retail Sales (09:00 UTC)

United States - Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

The economic calendar for June 4 contains three scheduled events, none of which are likely to have a significant impact on the market. Therefore, economic data may have little to no influence on market sentiment throughout Thursday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1682 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1578. The first target has already been reached. New short positions may be considered if the pair retests and rejects the 1.1630 level from below.

Long positions may be considered on a rebound from the 1.1578 level, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1682.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical news to launch a sustained advance. The most recent completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the latest downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitical developments have recently supported the bulls, but hopes for an agreement between Iran and the United States are once again fading. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after the May 25 high is surpassed.

Wednesday's news backdrop favored the bears, supported by strong U.S. economic data on the labor market and business activity. However, the market is driven by more than economic indicators alone. Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that no meaningful progress had been made in negotiations with Washington this week. The announcement had a sobering effect on optimistic traders who continue to place faith in Donald Trump's statements.

According to the U.S. president, the two sides had already agreed on 95% of the text of a future deal two weeks ago. It now appears that there has been no actual progress in the negotiations. Moreover, the talks are being conducted exclusively through intermediaries and could collapse at any moment, given the ongoing missile attacks by both sides across the Middle East. Naturally, there is also no prospect of reopening the strait in the near future.

As a result, the U.S. dollar is once again benefiting from demand as a safe-haven currency. The only factor preventing GBP/USD from entering a new bearish trend is the market's growing skepticism toward virtually all geopolitical reports. Investors no longer trust either Trump's statements or official comments from Tehran, as the messages frequently contradict one another. Traders are increasingly unwilling to speculate about which reports are accurate and which are not. Until greater clarity emerges, GBP/USD may remain confined to a relatively narrow trading range.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3482–1.3514, suggesting the potential for a decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements are likely to be driven by geopolitical developments rather than technical analysis in the near term. Technical analysis should therefore be viewed only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became slightly less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,097, while short positions fell by 13,006. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 58,000 versus 119,000.

Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. Their advantage currently exceeds two-to-one.

I still do not fully believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. However, in the near term, market direction will depend less on economic indicators, Trump's trade policies, or central bank monetary policy, and more on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the prospect of a prolonged conflict, but recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may eventually be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be quick or easy.

Economic Calendar

United States - Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

The economic calendar for June 4 contains only one release, which is unlikely to attract significant market attention. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment is expected to be minimal on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 resistance level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. The first target has already been reached.

Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3408 level, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 resistance level. Alternatively, traders may consider buying the pair on a close above 1.3454–1.3466, with an upward target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

The mechanics of gold's reaction remain consistent with recent months, but in the opposite direction. The Lebanese ceasefire eased short-term pressure on bond yields and the dollar—and this is what brought buyers back into the market on the dip, who have been waiting for a turnaround toward the long-term trendline. Oil, after three days of rising, retreated on the news of the agreement—declining oil means fewer inflation concerns, alleviating some pressure on the metal via interest rate channels.

However, without a more comprehensive resolution to the conflict, a serious recovery in gold prices is not to be expected. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are already priced in at least through the beginning of 2027, and while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, inflationary pressures are not going away. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan confirmed yesterday that the central bank will likely need to raise rates by the end of this year to bring inflation back to target.

It is worth noting that the Lebanese agreement is conditional. It depends on a complete cessation of fire from Hezbollah, and this condition makes it fragile. A more fundamental issue—the US-Iran agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz—remains unsigned. Trump stated that the strait would open immediately after the memorandum is signed, but Tehran rejects the American conditions. The framework agreement is generally agreed upon, but the details are not. This creates a situation where gold may briefly breathe but not sustainably reverse upwards.

Silver is up 0.8% to $73.34. Platinum and palladium are also experiencing gains.

From a technical standpoint, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow targeting $4,546, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,607. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,432. If they succeed, breaking below this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,372 and potentially dropping to $4,304.

The record rally stumbled on two fronts — and both hit on the same day. A weak guide from Broadcom dented the AI narrative, and renewed clashes between the US and Iran knocked the wind out of sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell by 1.6%, ending a four-day run to record highs. South Korea's KOSPI, the world's best-performing index this year, lost 1.7%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.5%. The S&P 500 ended a nine-day winning streak. Europe is set to open lower.

As noted earlier, Broadcom was the day's main disappointment. The stock plunged by about 14% in after-hours trade after a guidance miss and management commentary that the shift toward AI customers is progressing more slowly than expected. One weak guide from one company is not automatically a trend reversal. Still, after such a rapid run in chip names — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has gained roughly 70% in two months — investors need little reason to start taking profits.

Geopolitics added pressure. Renewed US–Iran clashes returned familiar nervousness to markets. Brent is trading near $97/bbl, though a US announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon briefly eased tensions and helped oil pull back nearly 1%. Bitcoin slid below $62,000, a low not seen since February.

Labor market data continue to surprise on the upside. Yesterday's ADP report showed that US firms added the most jobs since January 2025. This indicates that hiring remains resilient despite the energy shock. Friday's nonfarm payrolls data remains the week's main event. If the print confirms labor market strength, as preliminary indicators suggest, the Fed will have another argument for holding or raising interest rates. That's constructive for the dollar and negative for gold and supportive for the yen.

Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that a return of inflation to the target level may require interest rate hikes later in the year. New York Fed President John Williams added caution, calling the outlook for rates "uncertain" — but the market is clearly hearing more hawkish voices than doves.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen unexpectedly strengthened today. According to reports, the Bank of Japan is considering a 25bp rate hike this month with more tightening possible toward year-end. That would be a major signal for currency markets: the yen has long been a victim of the global high-rate cycle, and any hint of normalization in Japanese policy could sharply alter the USD/JPY dynamic.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,547. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474.

S&P 500 performance

Despite the White House's insistence that the situation is under control and that talks with Iran continue, investors are re-assessing events in the Middle East. There is no ceasefire regime in place, rather a lower-intensity armed conflict than before. Hostilities are expanding, and Trump will return to mass bombing only if US service members start to die.

In any case, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and supply issues persist, which the OECD says could slow global GDP growth to 2.1%, the weakest pace since the pandemic. Inflation across the G20 would rise to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. Central banks would be forced to raise interest rates on average by 50–75 bps. All of this threatens a global recession, and the S&P 500 must react.

Global growth dynamics and forecasts

It's hard to say which the US equity market should fear more: a global GDP slowdown or Fed tightening. The odds of a federal funds rate hike in 2026 have risen to 56% amid strong US macro prints and increasingly hawkish FOMC rhetoric. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warns that the central bank will resort to monetary restriction later in the year if inflation cannot be tamed.

In late 2025, weak US data were actually bullish for equities because they increased the odds of Fed cuts. At the start of summer, the process has reversed: strong ADP private sector payrolls and robust ISM services employment prints have become catalysts for the S&P 500 sell-off because they raise the likelihood of policy tightening.

Will the crowd use the pullback to buy the dip, or is this the start of a deeper correction? Time will tell.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is pulling back after a prolonged rally. The uptrend remains intact, so bounces off dynamic support levels in the form of moving averages or nearby pivot levels at $7,490 and $7,460 make sense as opportunities to build long positions toward the previously stated upside target of $7,700.

Yesterday's plunge in the cryptocurrency market led to a significant decline in the global asset rankings. According to CompaniesMarketCap, Bitcoin has fallen out of the top ten global assets, with its market capitalization dropping to $1.09 trillion, falling behind gold, silver, and all members of the so-called "Magnificent Seven"—Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla.

Ethereum is in an even more vulnerable position: with a price below $1,800, its market capitalization is approaching the threshold for the top 100 global assets—a territory that the second-largest crypto asset used to occupy with confidence.

The decline is particularly painful in the context of Bitcoin's rise to seventh place in the global rankings in October 2025, when its price hit an all-time high above $126,000, and its market cap reached around $2.5 trillion.

The symbolism of the situation is particularly pronounced against the backdrop of Washington's regulatory ambitions. Treasury Secretary Bessent has just urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act this summer and confirmed progress on the strategic Bitcoin reserve work. The SEC has designated digital assets as a strategic priority through 2030, and the CFTC has approved perpetual Bitcoin futures. However, while regulators are building the institutional infrastructure for crypto, the capital market is voting with its money in the opposite direction.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $64,600, targeting a rise to $65,900. At $65,900, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell back on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $63,600 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back up towards $64,600 and $65,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $63,600, targeting a decline to $62,000. At $62,000, I will exit my sell position and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip move back from the level. Sellers could return at any moment; we just need a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $64,500 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back down towards $63,600 and $62,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,801, targeting a rise to $1,843. At $1,843, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell back on the pullback. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $1,774 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back down towards $1,801 and $1,843.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,774, targeting a decline to $1,722. At $1,722, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $1,801 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back down towards $1,774 and $1,722.

The test of the price level at 159.89 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upwards from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Yesterday, interest in the US dollar renewed due to reports of ongoing confrontations between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. The escalation of the geopolitical situation traditionally stimulates demand for the dollar, as investors prefer to invest in more reliable assets. The strengthening of the American currency against the yen was also supported by encouraging data on business activity in the US services sector. The ISM index, rising to 54.5, surpassed analysts' forecasts and indicated the continued viability of the US economy despite international challenges.

Today, during Asian trading, the Bank of Japan attempted to respond with currency interventions to strengthen the yen, but it did not achieve any significant improvement. It appears that much more substantial intervention is required, which we will wait for in the near future, so there is no rush to buy dollars at current levels.

For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.95 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.18 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.18, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.78 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.95 and 160.18.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.78 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.49, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.95 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.78 and 159.49.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.3444 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined to the support area at 1.3421.

Yesterday, demand for the dollar quickly returned following news that the US and Iran continue to exchange strikes in the Middle East. Geopolitical tension traditionally drives demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, as investors seek refuge in more stable assets. Additional support for the dollar was provided by the strong ISM services activity index, which rose to 54.5. This figure, exceeding analysts' expectations, indicates the ongoing strength of the US economy despite global challenges. Activity in the services sector is an important component of GDP, and its steady growth suggests that the US economy remains resilient.

Today, the first half of the day in the UK financial markets is expected to be extremely volatile, as investors await the publication of several key economic indicators and a speech by a key monetary policy figure. Attention will focus on the UK construction sector's PMI index. This indicator reflects business activity in one of the economy's key sectors and provides insights into the current state of the housing market and overall economic sentiment.

In addition to the data, markets are also keenly anticipating the speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The central bank leader typically uses such platforms to convey the central bank's position on the current economic situation, inflation trends, and the monetary policy outlook. Given the uncertainty in global markets and the internal challenges facing the UK economy, there is an expectation for Bailey to deliver a firm stance, which could temporarily support the pound but might be detrimental to the economy as a whole.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3445 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3480 (the thicker green line on the chart). At level 1.3480, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level. Strong growth in the pound today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3420 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3445 and 1.3480.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks below 1.3420 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3390, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level. Pressure on the pound will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3445 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3420 and 1.3390.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.1612 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 pips.

The rise in tensions in the Middle East, driven by ongoing clashes between the US and Iran, along with heightened security measures in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other countries in the region, has sparked renewed interest in the US dollar. Geopolitical instability, which traditionally enhances the appeal of the US dollar as a safe asset, has once again made its presence felt.

Today, the first half of the day promises to be busy with important events that could significantly impact the currency market. Attention will be focused on the data regarding changes in retail sales volume in the Eurozone for April. Forecasts indicate a possible contraction of this indicator, which may signal a slowdown in consumer activity in the region. A decline in retail sales is often a sign of economic cooling.

Alongside the publication of these reports, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. Given the current geopolitical situation and ongoing inflation challenges, it can be expected that the central bank's head will provide a rather stern assessment of inflation. Lagarde is likely to reaffirm the ECB's commitment to combating rising prices and may hint at tightening monetary policy if inflationary pressures do not ease.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1622 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1651. At 1.1651, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong growth in the euro can only be expected after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1605 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1622 and 1.1651.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1605 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1575, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 pips from that level. Pressure on the pair will return only if the reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1622 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1605 and 1.1575.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Demand for the dollar has returned following news that the escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran increased over the past 24 hours, with reports of new strikes, intercepts, and counteractions around Kuwait, Bahrain, and the Iranian coastline. Despite diplomatic signals, hostilities have not halted. Geopolitical tensions, which traditionally stimulate interest in the US dollar as a safe haven, have again made their mark, significantly impacting global financial markets. Traders, fearing further escalation of the conflict and its potential consequences for the global economy, have once more shown an inclination towards safe-haven assets.

Today, important data is expected on the change in retail sales volume in the Eurozone for April, with a decline forecast, along with a speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Retail sales data is a key indicator of consumer demand, which plays a significant role in overall economic growth. A decline in retail sales could indicate a slowdown in consumer activity, driven by various factors such as high inflation, reduced purchasing power, or overall economic uncertainty. If the forecast of declining retail sales is confirmed, it may heighten concerns about the Eurozone's economic growth prospects.

Christine Lagarde's speech gains particular significance against the backdrop of these economic signals. It is expected that the head of the European Central Bank will express her stance on the current level of inflation and possible measures to address it. Given that inflation remains high, Lagarde's rhetoric is likely to focus on restraining price growth.

As for the pound, key figures for the UK construction sector PMI index are expected this morning, along with an important speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. A firm position from the leadership is anticipated.

The construction sector PMI index is likely to shed light on the state of the British economy, reflecting activity in one of the key sectors. It is expected that the indicators will remain at relatively low levels, which could put pressure on the pound.

Particular attention will be paid to Bailey's speech, as his remarks may offer insights into future actions on inflation control. Given the current economic situation, many analysts expect the rhetoric to remain hawkish, emphasizing the commitment to combating price pressure.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.1625, which may lead to an increase in the euro towards 1.1658 and 1.1698.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.1600, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1579 and 1.1550.

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.3440, which may lead to an increase in the pound towards 1.3475 and 1.3510.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.3410, which may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3380 and 1.3350.

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 160.02, which may lead to a move higher in the dollar towards 160.24 and 160.43.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 159.83, which may lead to dollar sell-offs towards 159.60 and 159.39.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1620 when returning below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1592 when returning to this level.

For GBP/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3436 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3408 when returning to this level.

For AUD/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7143 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7121 when returning to this level.

For USD/CAD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3917 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3887 when returning to this level.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1607, rebounding after reaching the 7/8 Murray line around 1.1593. This level is a strong support, as it acted as a solid floor throughout May, providing stability to the euro.

The euro will likely rebound above the 1.16 level in the coming hours and could reach the upper band of the downtrend channel formed since May 29 around 1.1630.

A decisive break of the downtrend channel and consolidation above 1.1621 could be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at the 200 EMA around 1.1660 and ultimately reaching the 8/8 Murray line around 1.1718.

If the euro falls below 1.1590, the bearish bias could continue, and EUR/USD is likely to reach the lower band of the downtrend channel around 1.1570 in the coming days. A technical rebound could occur around this area, but if bearish pressure prevails, it could reach the 6/8 Murray line around 1.1474.

The Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels, so we believe that the euro could consolidate above 1.16 in the coming days.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to buy the euro above 1.1593, with targets at 1.1631 and 1.1660.

Gold is trading around $4,460, rebounding after reaching a key support zone that coincided with the daily support level around $4,430.

Gold is trading above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that a recovery could occur in the coming days if the price consolidates above $4,460.

The outlook for gold is positive, but for this to happen, XAU/USD must overcome the strong resistance at $4,489, where the 21-day SMA is located. If XAU continues to rise in the coming hours and consolidates above $4,490, this could be seen as a positive signal to buy, with targets at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level around $4,564.

If the upward momentum prevails, we could expect gold to reach the 200 EMA around $4,590. If it breaks above this level, it will ultimately reach the 100% Fibonacci extension around $4,654.

A drop and consolidation below the 61.8% Fibonacci level could signal a negative outlook for gold. So, we could expect it to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375 in the coming days.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to buy at the current price level of $4,460, and we could place a stop-loss below yesterday's low around $4,430.

The weekly Bitcoin chart indicates a bearish trend for the coming months. This development could take 2 to 6 months, lasting until the end of the year, for the price to reach the 2/8 Murray level around the psychological threshold of $50,000; even if bearish pressure persists, it could drop to $39,700.

During today's Asian session, we saw a sharp drop in Bitcoin, reaching a low of $61,300.

BTC is currently trading around $63,125 and is likely to continue rising in the coming days until it reaches the 200 EMA around $69,217; if bullish momentum prevails, we could expect it to reach the strong 3/8 Murray resistance level around $75,000.

Technically, Bitcoin has reached oversold levels. Thus, above $61,500, any pullback will be seen as a buying opportunity in the coming days, with targets around $65,000 and ultimately around $69,200.

Bitcoin could resume its bearish cycle if it encounters strong resistance around $69,000 or $73,800. We must remain vigilant regarding Bitcoin's price movement. Should it reach these resistance levels, it could be considered a good point to open short positions.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to buy Bitcoin from current price levels above $61,500, with targets at $70,000.

The weekly chart shows a sharp break below the uptrend channel that has been forming since January 25. Therefore, a pullback is expected here in the coming days toward $73,500, before resuming its bearish cycle and thus confirming the bearish pennant pattern. BTC has the potential to reach the psychological level of $50,000 and even $40,000 over the coming months.

ETHEREUM is trading around $1,763, above the 2/8 Murray line, and rebounding after hitting the lower band of the downtrend channel formed since May 7 at around $1,714.

Ethereum is consolidating above the 2/8 Murray line, which represents strong support. If the price consolidates or remains above this area in the coming hours, it could be considered a buy signal with targets at the 3/8 Murray line around $1,875, and we could even expect it to reach the 21 SMA around $1,922.

Technically, ETH/USD is showing oversold conditions, so a recovery is expected in the coming hours. Given the technical picture, our outlook is positive for buying Ethereum at lower price levels, with targets at $1,875 and $1,950 near the upper band of the bearish trend channel.

If Ethereum consolidates below $1,750 in the coming hours, we must exercise great caution, as the bearish scenario could continue, and we could expect ETH to keep falling until it reaches the 1/8 Murray level around $1,650.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to monitor whether the price consolidates above the upper band of the downtrend channel around $1,714. A more positive scenario with a bullish outlook would be for the price to consolidate above $1,750, at which point we could buy.

Let's also consider the speed of movement. Bitcoin crawled upward for three months, covering a distance equal to $23,000. Since May 6 (exactly one month ago), Bitcoin has lost nearly the same amount. It is clear which of these movements is corrective and which is trend-based.

The latest drop in Bitcoin may have been triggered by several factors that do not contradict the technical picture. For instance, the company Strategy announced its first sale of Bitcoin in its history. Essentially, Michael Saylor's company sold just 32 coins of the first cryptocurrency from May 26 to May 31. This is minimal, but it sends a signal to the market: a company that has held to the principle of "never sell Bitcoin" for the past decade has renounced it. The first sale was small, but further sales could be much more significant. It is worth noting that the average purchase price of Bitcoin for Strategy is around $78,000. Thus, it is evident that all their Bitcoin investments are currently unprofitable.

Additionally, it should be noted that the chances for a resolution to the war in the Middle East have declined again. The market has long awaited positive news but has received only empty promises from Trump. US inflation is accelerating, forcing the Federal Reserve to abandon plans to ease monetary policy in 2026, a move the US president had desired. Hawkish sentiment has intensified, pressure on risk assets has increased, and spot demand was extremely low even a month or two ago, when Bitcoin showed weak growth. This combination of factors also pointed to an impending decline. However, even without these factors, Bitcoin's movements indicated that the market was preparing for a new round of the downward trend.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has resumed forming a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as bearish, and the Change of Character (CHOCH) line remains at the level of $97,900. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to have ended. With no signals indicating a trend reversal to the bullish side, we believe the decline will continue. A sell signal formed in the $79,500 – $81,100 range on the daily timeframe, and an upward structure was broken on the hourly timeframe, confirming the signal. The price has entered the liquidity pool, accelerating the decline. This week, new bearish FVGs are surely expected to form, allowing for new short positions to be opened. The first target remains at $57,500.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the 4H Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has transitioned from forming a downward structure to a collapse. The CHOCH line, which supports the downward trend, is at $78,000 and may shift lower in the coming days. We still see no fundamental basis for long-term strengthening of Bitcoin; spot demand remains weak. Last week, liquidity was withdrawn from the last local peak, after which a new phase of decline began. Bearish patterns can be used to open new short positions, but the decline is so strong that it is advisable to utilize the daily timeframe now.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to establish a full downward trend and correction against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of a long-term upward trend beginning. A signal in the near-term bearish FVG on the daily timeframe located in the area of $79,300 - $81,200 has been formed and confirmed on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we are currently positioned for the continuation of the downward trend, and bearish patterns remain a priority in trading.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• CHOCH: Change of Trend Structure.
• Liquidity: Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG: Fair Value Gap. Prices pass through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, prices tend to return to and react to these areas, continuing the main trend.
• IFVG: Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to this area, prices do not react to it; instead, they impulsively break through and then test it from the other side.
• OB: Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to secure liquidity for forming their position in the opposite direction.

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only reports to note are those on retail sales in the Eurozone and jobless claims in the US. However, it is worth noting that a significant number of macroeconomic data have already been released this week. Almost all of it was ignored, or the market reaction was minimal. For instance, yesterday, positive reports from ADP and ISM were released in the US, while Iran launched new strikes on Kuwait. These three events collectively led to a strengthening of the dollar by several dozen pips but had no impact on the technical picture of either currency pair.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, noteworthy speeches will be delivered by Mary Daly and Thomas Barkin of the Federal Reserve, Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank, and Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England. Undoubtedly, speeches by ECB and BoE leaders generate interest; however, the heads of the central banks need to convey something important and unexpected for the market to react, especially under current circumstances. Note that the only central bank that can change its key rate at its next meeting is the ECB. The market is generally prepared for this scenario, yet ignores it because the euro is not rising. Therefore, if Lagarde indicates today the ECB's readiness for tightening, it is unlikely to provoke a market reaction. Following the April inflation report, there is no reason to expect a rate hike from the BoE, as inflation has slowed.

The geopolitical backdrop remains disappointing, as Iran and the US have once again moved closer to resuming conflict amid failed negotiations. The talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, and according to the US president, they are "very successful." However, no confirmations of diplomatic success have come from Iran. On the contrary, the parties regularly violate the ceasefire conditions, and this week, Tehran even expressed a desire to halt any diplomatic contacts with Washington.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade relatively weakly unless new messages emerge concerning the conflict and ceasefire in the Middle East. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1584-1.1591, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair showed a slight decline, which could be attributed to the latest escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the strong ISM services activity index in the US. However, it is important to recall what we have discussed over the past few weeks. The market's reaction may be evident in response to individual events and reports, but in practice, it is extremely difficult to determine whether the market reacted or we are simply observing market noise. Yesterday, the British pound exhibited volatility of around 50 pips. This is very low. The dollar did indeed appreciate, but the market's reaction to Wednesday's events (if any) was extremely weak and had no significant impact. The GBP/USD pair struggled several times to breach the 1.3456-1.3476 area, so the decline in quotes could have been triggered by technical factors. Additionally, the ascending trend line was breached a week and a half ago, making the pound's decline more logical.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, several overlapping sell signals were generated. During the European trading session, the price bounced several times from the 1.3456-1.3476 area but did not begin its decline until the American session. Therefore, novice traders could have opened one short position and, by the evening, realized a profit of about 25 pips. This trade could also be carried over to Thursday.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend as geopolitics worsen again, and the trend line has been breached. However, without the resumption of a full-scale war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot be expected to rise as it did in February-March. Individual events may still prompt further strengthening, but we do not believe the market will initiate a new wave of risk aversion.

On Thursday, novice traders can remain in short positions targeting 1.3380-1.3386 after a rebound from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. A price rebound from the 1.3380-1.3386 area will allow for long positions targeting 1.3456-1.3476. However, be mindful of the low volatility.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider trading the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. The event calendar in the UK remains empty for Thursday, while in the US, a minor report on jobless claims will be released.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade within a sideways channel, clearly visible on the hourly timeframe. Traders still cannot find grounds to buy or sell the pair. The macroeconomic backdrop is largely ignored, the fundamentals have little significance, and the market is waiting for important geopolitical news and events rather than more threats, ultimatums, and promises. As a result, we have observed the same picture daily for three weeks: there are events and news, but market movements are nearly nonexistent. For instance, yesterday, the ISM services activity index was released in the US, showing a higher-than-expected reading. Additionally, Iran launched new missile strikes against Kuwait. These appear to be two significant events, each of which should have triggered a rise in the US dollar. And the dollar did rise! But by how much? Only 30 pips, and it still remained within the sideways channel.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, no trading signals were formed. The last sell signals were generated on Tuesday, when the price bounced twice from the 1.1655-1.1666 area. These short positions could have been carried over to Wednesday, since volatility is currently low and the price needs more time to move significant distances.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the euro has been in a correction for a month and flat for three weeks. The rise of the US dollar has resumed as the conflict in the Middle East is on the brink of escalation, but we still do not expect prolonged growth for the American currency. The market continues to largely ignore fundamentals and macroeconomics, while it reacts to geopolitical issues very selectively.

On Thursday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1527-1.1531 if the price breaks below the 1.1584-1.1591 area. Buy trades can be considered if the price rebounds from the 1.1584-1.1591 area, targeting 1.1655-1.1666.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following levels: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Thursday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, and a retail sales report will be released. The most important event in the US will be the jobless claims report. We believe that these events will not even provoke an increase in volatility.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade with low volatility on Wednesday. Macroeconomic data again had little to no impact on the pair's movement, which is not surprising—this is the trend we have observed for three consecutive months. Therefore, the business activity indices or the ADP and JOLTs reports are now little more than interesting figures. The market is fully focused on the Iranian conflict, but in a very peculiar way, for which we can thank Donald Trump. The market is now only prepared to react to confirmed information that affects the actual situation in the Middle East, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, and so on. Hundreds of reports about the termination of negotiations, resumption of talks, new ceasefire violations, and imminent agreements are simply ignored by the market. Because this information is either unverified or has no real impact.

For example, what is the point of reacting to another ceasefire violation by Iran and the US if it brings no consequences? In the last two weeks, the parties have fired missiles at enemy positions about five times. What impact has this had? What is the point of reacting to Trump's repeated promises of a forthcoming agreement with Iran if this information also brings no consequences? Trump has been promising a deal for at least several weeks, and yet nothing has changed. What is the point of reacting to potential concessions from Washington or Tehran if such information is unconfirmed and often contradicted by the opposing side within hours?

The market has come to fully realize that Iran will not abandon uranium enrichment, and Washington will not abandon its goal of denuclearizing Iran. The situation is completely deadlocked. Thus, we believe that the conflict in the Middle East will persist for a long time, but the parties will not engage in daily active hostilities. The active phase of the war in February and March showed that the US cannot conquer Iran, that the assassination of Iranian leaders does not lead to regime change, there will be no national revolution, and the US will not succeed in persuading Iran to sign a favorable deal using those methods. As for Iran, it did not initiate this war and has the same right to possess nuclear weapons and develop them as the US does. Therefore, Tehran is certainly not interested in resuming the war.

Consequently, we do not see substantial reasons for a new strong dollar trend. Geopolitics supported the American currency in 2026. Without that support, the GBP/USD pair would already be above the 40 level. However, the dollar has gained some time but has not broken the negative trend that began last year when Trump came to power. Thus, we should not expect a deal now, but rather a shift in market attention from geopolitics back to the economy.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 62 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. On Thursday, June 4, we expect the pair to move within the range bounded by 1.3373 and 1.3497. The upper channel of linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has not formed any signals recently.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3428
• S2 – 1.3367
• S3 – 1.3303

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3489
• R2 – 1.3550
• R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to recover after a 300-pip drop. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the US dollar. However, 2026 is currently looking very positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3550 and 1.3611 can be considered if the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be opened with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306 on geopolitical grounds. The market situation often changes, and it continues to focus predominantly on geopolitical news that lacks uniformity. Given the current weak movements, it is advisable to trade on lower timeframes.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels: These help determine the current trend. If both channels are directed in the same way, it indicates a strong trend.
• Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): This defines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray Levels: target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines): This indicates the likely price channel within which the pair will trade over the next day, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in exactly the same manner on Wednesday as in the past few weeks—showing low volatility, a minimal upward tilt, and movement close to a flat range. Under current circumstances, we wouldn't even focus on the upward slope, as 90% of the current movement is pure flat. Therefore, our conclusions remain the same as yesterday and the day before: the market continues to ignore the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, is unwilling to take risks with any positions, and is waiting for a resolution to the conflict between Iran and the US.

What does "waiting for a resolution" mean? The answer to this question is crucial, as this "resolution" could determine the fate of the dollar in the coming weeks or even months. In our view, the market has simply grown tired of the endless streams of geopolitical information, 90% of which are unverified or meaningless. For instance, it was reported yesterday that Washington is seemingly ready to make concessions on the "nuclear issue," but everyone understands there is no evidence to support this. Iran announced earlier this week that it was halting negotiations with the US; however, Trump intervened to prevent an Israeli attack on Lebanon, which logically suggests that negotiations should resume. Yet there is no information on this or on Iran's current position.

Instead, there are reports of yet another ceasefire violation in the Persian Gulf. The US struck the Iranian island of Qeshm, while Tehran retaliated with strikes on American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Understanding what is happening in the Middle East at present is nearly impossible. The parties to the conflict intermittently strike each other, claim to be in negotiations, report progress, or regress, talk about deals, and then deny any agreements. In this information soup, it is impossible to make sense of anything. Therefore, the market has drawn an obvious conclusion. If Tehran and Washington themselves cannot decide whether they are at war or seeking to sign a peace agreement, let them figure it out first, and then something concrete can be acted upon.

Thus, the market is waiting for such a resolution: either a full-scale resumption of hostilities following failed negotiations or the signing of a peace agreement and further discussions to resolve the crisis. For now, it can be said that there is still no scent of a peace agreement, and neither Iran nor the US wants to restart a full-scale war for understandable reasons. We believe that this form of conflict may continue for weeks, months, or even years. It is evident to everyone that Iran will not abandon its enriched uranium under any circumstances, nor will it relent on uranium enrichment. Moreover, Tehran understands that it is the US that is currently eager to end the war, declare victory, and calmly prepare for the elections. In blunt terms, the initiative is now in Tehran's hands, which is in no rush and does not agree to yet another burdensome deal from Donald Trump under the threat of coercion.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 4 is 55 pips, characterized as "medium-low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1552 and 1.1662 on Thursday. The upper channel of linear regression has shifted upward, indicating a trend reversal toward bullish. In fact, the upward trend for 2025 could have resumed as early as March. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone and formed two "bearish" divergences, warning of a downward correction that is still ongoing.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1597
• S2 – 1.1536
• S3 – 1.1475

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1658
• R2 – 1.1719
• R3 – 1.1780

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, which is presumably a correction within the broader upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, with only geopolitical factors consistently providing support. If the price is below the moving average, short trades can be considered, targeting 1.1552 and 1.1536. Long positions become relevant when the price is above the moving average line, targeting 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to distance itself from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks, demand for the dollar has increased as hopes for peace in the Middle East have weakened. Currently, movements are weak, so it is advisable to trade on lower timeframes.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels: These help determine the current trend. If both channels are directed in the same way, it indicates a strong trend.
• Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): This defines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray Levels: target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines): This indicates the likely price channel within which the pair will trade over the next day, based on current volatility metrics.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite sluggishly on Wednesday, despite significant news from the Middle East and overseas. Let's start with the economic data. In the US, the ISM business activity index was published yesterday and exceeded forecasts, following the manufacturing index. As such, the dollar had economic grounds for growth yesterday. Additionally, it was reported later in the evening that Iran had launched a missile strike on Kuwait's international airport, clearly indicating the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East. Kuwait is an ally of the US. Essentially, traders received another answer to the question: "Should we expect a peace agreement between Tehran and Washington anytime soon?" Our response over the past few weeks has been no, as there are no real grounds for such an agreement, but practically daily missile attacks in the Persian Gulf region continue.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend began after breaking the trend line, but in recent weeks, the price has been tightly stuck between 1.3369-1.3377 and 1.3465-1.3480. The upper boundary of this channel could not be breached, so we may soon observe movement towards the lower boundary. Geopolitics remains uncertain, meaning the pound may continue to stay within the sideways channel until the situation clarifies.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one sell trading signal was formed. Just before the European trading session opened, the price bounced off the 1.3465-1.3480 area and then dropped to the Kijun-sen line at 1.3427 by the end of the day. Thus, traders could have secured a profit of 25-30 pips from the short position, which is quite a decent result given the current volatility.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that, in recent years, sentiment among commercial traders has been continually shifting. The red and blue lines, which reflect the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, with non-commercial traders continuing to dominate with... shorts. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for riskier currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, as evidenced by the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors currently take precedence, providing significant support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East cannot be declared resolved, the US dollar may still see potential growth in the future. According to the latest COT report (as of May 26), the Non-Commercial group closed 10,100 buy contracts and 13,000 sell contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 3,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its upward trend amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and strained relations between Iran and the US. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop continues to have little influence on the pair's movements. We do not believe that the dollar can show strong growth without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East; however, the situation is indeed moving towards escalation.

For June 4, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, and 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3477) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3424) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Thursday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is scheduled to speak, and in the US, the jobless claims report will be published. It is unlikely that there will be any significant reactions to either of these events. However, a new escalation in the Middle East may occur. The dollar could continue its upward movement towards the 1.3369-1.3377 area.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may maintain short positions targeting 1.3369-1.3377, as the pair has bounced off the 1.3465-1.3480 area. Long positions will become relevant if there's a rebound from the 1.3369-1.3377 area, targeting 1.3465-1.3480.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Price Levels (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts represents the size of each category of traders' net positions.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade between a group of levels, areas, and lines. Overall, it is not even worth analyzing which levels were breached and which were not. The sideways movement with a slight upward tilt and low volatility is clearly visible. Over the past three weeks, the euro has been trading against the dollar between the areas of 1.1657-1.1666 and the level of 1.1585. Essentially, the movements we observe daily are market noise rather than a reaction to any events. The macroeconomic backdrop remains largely ignored, and the market is frankly tired of geopolitical issues. For example, yesterday, there was no reaction to the quite important ISM services activity index in the US, nor to Iran's new attacks on Kuwait's international airport. The market is disregarding all events, and volatility remains low.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend persists, as the pair has not been able to initiate an upward movement or breach the 1.1657-1.1666 area over the past three weeks. We are currently witnessing a purely flat movement, the completion of which can be judged either below 1.1585 or above the area of 1.1657-1.1666.

In the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one trading signal was formed, but, as one might guess, it was extremely challenging to realize profits from the trade due to weak movement. Throughout the European trading session, the pair struggled to break through the 1.1615-1.1625 area, but during the American session, it did! By the end of the day, the price dropped by 10 pips...

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated May 26. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining due to geopolitical events. Traders have been getting rid of the European currency in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but for a time, the dollar acted as a "reserve currency." However, this process may already be complete.

We still do not see any fundamental factors for the strengthening of the euro, while there are sufficient factors for the decline of the dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but once this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will revert to normal. It may have already expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Currently, the pair has not significantly deviated from the descending trend line that has been breached several times.

The positioning of the red and blue lines in the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-Commercial group decreased by 10,200, while the number of shorts decreased by 6,100. Consequently, the net position fell by 4,100 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has been trading in a flat range between the level of 1.1585 and the area of 1.1657-1.1666 for three weeks. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, not worsening, and Washington and Tehran can only dream of signing a preliminary agreement at this point. If no new signs of a resumption of war emerge in the Middle East and the memorandum is indeed signed, the dollar may begin to lose ground. However, so far we have not observed either a deal or a resumption of hostilities.

For June 3, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1619) and Kijun-sen line (1.1639). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Thursday, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will give a speech, which could be interesting a week ahead of the central bank's meeting and after the May inflation report, which indicates an acceleration to 3.2%. A retail sales report will also be published. However, we want to remind you that the market is currently ignoring both fundamental and macroeconomic factors equally.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may maintain short positions targeting 1.1585 and 1.1542, as the price has consolidated below the 1.1615-1.1625 area. Long positions can be opened in the event of consolidation above the area of 1.1657-1.1666, targeting 1.1750-1.1760.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Price Levels (thick red lines) are levels where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines) are points from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts represents the size of each category of traders' net positions.