The wave count may now become more complex again. Wave C has taken a three-wave form, while the next wave is identified as Wave D. The entire trend segment that began on January 27 may now take the form of a five-wave corrective structure, A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, Wave D has been completed, and on August 21, EUR/USD entered the phase of forming Wave E, whose low should be below the low of Wave C at 1.1325. The only question now is whether the news backdrop will support the dollar strongly enough for the pair to fall below 1.1325. We get the answer to this question every day: such news support is not necessary.

What Has Been Happening in the Market Over the Past Year?

The EUR/USD pair rose by several dozen points during Friday's trading session, but in today's review, I suggest looking not at the news backdrop or the events of the current day, but at the broader picture. In my view, the latest rise in the US currency is difficult to explain and has little to do with recent events in the world or in the United States. Consider the following: the Fed has raised its interest rate once and indicated its willingness to continue tightening. At the same time, the ECB has raised rates twice and is also prepared to continue tightening. The Bank of England has not raised rates at all yet, but is prepared to raise them twice over its next three meetings. Everything suggests that the dollar, euro, and pound are in roughly similar conditions. Why, then, has only the dollar been rising in recent weeks?

Look at the wave count in the bottom chart, which reflects this year's price movements. This picture provides grounds for identifying the 1.13–1.14 level as the lower boundary of the channel for the current year. In other words, the euro has fallen to the year's lows for the third time. This is important because I cannot describe the latest decline in the pair as a logical continuation of the preceding movement. If we look further back on the chart, we can see that during the second half of 2025, price movements with a similar structure but in the opposite direction took place. Last year, the pair moved higher in a series of successive advances, while this year it has moved lower in a series of successive declines. If these movements are considered together, EUR/USD has effectively been trading between the 1.13 and 1.19 levels for approximately a year. The euro is now in the lower part of this range. Should we expect another rise?

Overall Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend structure. If this assumption is correct, the decline will continue toward targets below the low of Wave C at 1.1325. I previously considered this scenario an alternative one, and had it not been for the Fed meeting, it would have remained a secondary scenario. However, the Fed delivered a surprise, leaving the market with no other option but a new wave of US currency purchases. Yet these purchases have continued for several weeks, even though the dollar has no new supporting factors. I would not open short positions against such a news backdrop.

On the higher timeframe, a bullish phase of the trend can be seen, followed by the formation of an A-B-C corrective structure. This structure could develop into a five-wave pattern, but at present I consider it complete. If that is the case, a new impulsive bullish phase of the trend has begun to form.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often imply further changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The GBP/USD pair continues to fall almost freely. Over the past 11 days, bullish traders have made only one attempt to counter the bears. Today, we saw the long-awaited corrective retracement, which could end as early as next week, as the new Imbalance 30 zone is now acting as resistance above the price. Over the past three weeks, the bears have attacked with virtually no resistance from the bulls. I would like to remind you that the US currency's rise began even before the latest FOMC meeting, ahead of which the market was effectively demanding tighter monetary policy. This week, FOMC officials Thomas Barkin, John Williams, Susan Collins, and others added fuel to the fire by confirming their intention to continue raising interest rates because inflation remains excessively high. The market has focused on the Fed's tightening policy and has continued to buy the dollar steadily for three consecutive weeks. At present, neither technical patterns nor the economic backdrop are capable of stopping the decline. Only the bears themselves can stop the bears.

I would also note that, at the same time, traders expect the Bank of England to implement the same two monetary policy tightenings over the next six months. This week, Deutsche Bank revised its forecast for the UK regulator's interest rate, and the market agrees with it. This means that, according to market expectations, the Fed should raise rates twice, and the Bank of England should also raise rates twice. The result: the dollar rose for 11 consecutive days.

Despite the unfavorable picture for the British pound that has developed in recent weeks, the dollar has also faced numerous adverse factors in recent months. If the Fed had not decided to raise interest rates in September and had not signaled its willingness to tighten policy at least once more by the end of the year, I would still expect the US currency to decline. I still expect it, but from lower levels. However, this week, bullish Imbalance 25 was invalidated, and the bulls' chances now lie solely in taking liquidity from the low of July 28 or June 24. The chart clearly shows that most reversals over the past year occurred precisely after liquidity was taken, so in my view, this represents an opportunity. The bears, meanwhile, now have two strong imbalances at their disposal—29 and 30. Particular attention should be paid to the latter, as it has already essentially been worked through. This means that the decline could very well resume as early as next week.

Are there further prospects for the bears? In my view, there are few, but it should be acknowledged that the dollar remains in a favorable period. The Fed not only decided to raise rates but also communicated its willingness to continue tightening to traders this week. I do not believe that a prolonged decline in GBP/USD can be driven by this factor alone; however, over the past few weeks, the market has done little but price in the FOMC rate hike. What could prevent it from continuing to buy the dollar for several more weeks amid the Fed's monetary tightening?

Technical analysis shows that the picture became fully bearish after liquidity was taken from the May highs. The pound reacted to bearish Imbalance 27, triggering a 320-point decline in the pair. The decline targeted Imbalance 25, and this pattern was both worked through and broken. New bearish imbalances 29 and 30 were also formed this week.

The economic backdrop on Friday allowed bearish traders to continue their advance, but they eventually took a pause. This happened precisely on a day when the economic backdrop supported another rise in the dollar, unlike all the previous days of the week. I understand that statements by FOMC members regarding tighter monetary policy are fairly strong reasons to buy the dollar, but in my view, the market is once again pricing in an excessively hawkish scenario for the US currency.

The overall information backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I cannot expect anything other than a decline in the US currency. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my long-term expectations. Geopolitical factors prompted the market to recall the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The future course of FOMC monetary policy remains uncertain, while the market continues to anticipate only further tightening, which is the main reason for the bears' positive sentiment. In my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I would also note that GBP/USD has been trading in a range for an entire year. A range allows for virtually any price movement within its boundaries. Traders have not yet managed to break out of the range.

US and UK Economic Calendar:

On September 28, the economic calendar contains no significant events. The economic backdrop will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The bears have taken the initiative in recent weeks, but overall, the range is visible even on the daily chart. Taking liquidity from the swing high of May 1 triggered the decline; a sell signal formed within Inverted Imbalance 27, followed by another bearish signal within the same pattern. The price reaction to Imbalance 25 prompted traders to close their short positions, but the bulls never launched an advance. Thus, the pound continues to fall almost freely, and the decline could continue toward the June lows, from which liquidity could be taken, followed by a reversal in favor of the pound. However, at present, the price could react to the nearest bearish Imbalance 30.

The EUR/USD pair had been falling for eleven consecutive sessions. During this period, the European currency lost 280 points. The losing streak for the European currency began the week before last as the market prepared for an increase in the FOMC policy rate. Since then, the market has continued to buy the dollar on the basis of the Fed's hawkish stance on monetary policy, which is confirmed daily by FOMC members. Interestingly, many Fed policymakers openly state that further monetary tightening is necessary, but at the same time, they do not say how much the interest rate could be raised. The dollar is currently rising as if the Fed had shifted from an absolutely neutral stance to an "ultra-hawkish" one. In reality, however, the interest rate may be raised only one more time, while the easing cycle could begin in 2027. If the Fed plans another tightening and all 12 voting FOMC members say so in interviews, this is essentially the same as the Fed raising the rate once without anyone saying so. In other words, there are no guarantees of several rounds of rate hikes.

Nothing can stop the decline of the European currency at present. Neither tighter ECB policy, nor positive economic data from the European Union, nor the technical picture and "bullish" patterns. Imbalance 19 has been invalidated, so the European currency now has every chance of falling below the psychological level of $1.10. And the "bullish" Imbalance 19 is now not simply invalidated; it has turned into a "bearish" inverted imbalance. It is now a "bearish" pattern alongside Imbalance 23. Thus, traders currently have two areas of interest for short trades. The bulls have only the proximity of the last two swing lows in their favor, from which liquidity could be taken.

Last week, the FOMC indicated its readiness to continue tightening monetary policy, which was enough to trigger a large-scale bearish advance. Even after the Fed tightened monetary policy in September and potentially tightens it again in November or December, I do not see what other factors could force traders to continue buying the US currency. The dollar has indeed performed very well over the past few weeks, but what factors have supported it during this period? FOMC monetary tightening and nothing else?

Overall, in my view, the information backdrop continues to favor the bulls. Despite the Fed's more hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor that determines exchange rates. I would like to remind you that US bond yields are hitting record highs, creating a huge burden on the budget; the US economy has been slowing over the past few quarters; in 2026, Donald Trump resumed his trade and non-trade disputes with many countries around the world; and the US stock market continues to raise serious concerns because of uncontrolled credit-fueled investment in technology companies involved in AI development.

The current technical picture points to the continuation of bearish momentum. Despite the highly contradictory price movement over the past three weeks, traders now have at least two areas of interest for short trades. The bulls can only hope for the lows of July 28 and June 24, from which liquidity could be taken, potentially triggering a bullish advance.

The economic backdrop on Friday was rather weak and once again failed to interest traders. The most important report on US durable goods orders came in slightly above forecasts, so the bears could continue their attack today. However, today the pair made a corrective retracement to Imbalance 19, from which it could react and resume its decline next week.

There are still numerous reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, has not changed. At present, I do not see any significant factors supporting the US currency despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical factors, which supported demand for the US currency during most of the first half of 2026, are no longer doing so.

US and European Union Economic Calendar:

On September 28, the economic calendar contains no significant events. The economic backdrop will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a "bullish" trend that paused for an entire year. The information backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. In the long term, I would say that the pair is in a range. A range does not invalidate the broader "bullish" trend. Thus, the bulls may resume their advance in 2026, but their only opportunities are the 1.1354 and 1.1325 lows, from which liquidity could be taken. The bears currently have Imbalances 19 and 23, from which new short positions can be opened. However, in my view, the current move is risky for traders because it lacks clear fundamental justification. The dollar could certainly push EUR/USD below 1.10, but the rationale for such a decline is too contradictory.

The resilience of economies to the oil crisis in the Middle East is no longer surprising. Strong European and US business activity data provided evidence of this. At the same time, Treasury yields are rising faster than those of their counterparts. This suggests that both the economy is growing faster and the pace of monetary policy tightening by the Fed is higher.

Bond Yield Dynamics

If global debt market yields previously rose in tandem with oil prices, the pullback and stabilization of Brent crude amid the intention of the US and Iran to return to diplomacy have not halted the rally in Treasury yields. Those who believe that the reason lies in the strength of the US economy and the Fed's hawkish shift expect the dollar to strengthen further. Those who believe that the real problem lies in Washington's fiscal difficulties advise starting to sell the greenback.

Rising reversal risks across various time horizons support the continuation of the USD Index rally. This suggests that investors are paying more for protection against a strengthening US dollar than for hedging against a collapse in its value.

Dynamics of US Dollar Reversal Risks

The euro is finding it difficult to resist. On the one hand, the eurozone economy is performing encouragingly, allowing the ECB to tighten monetary policy. On the other hand, the risks of the French government being forced to resign due to budget problems, as well as the risk of an energy crisis returning to Europe amid Donald Trump's ban on US diesel fuel exports, remain in place.

What comes next? The economic calendar for the week ending October 2 is packed with important events. Given the markets' strong reaction to business activity data, it is possible to speak of a renewed interest in macroeconomic statistics. US employment and European inflation reports are attracting particular attention.

The Fed has a dual mandate, so a deterioration in the US labor market could hinder its efforts to continue the monetary tightening cycle. This would weaken the US dollar. Conversely, if the unemployment situation remains stable, the USD Index could continue its rally. Europe is playing a supporting role. Formally, an acceleration in consumer prices is a reason to buy EUR/USD in anticipation of higher ECB rates. In reality, the euro may be bought on the rumors and then sold on the facts.

Technically, the EUR/USD daily chart shows a battle for resistance at 1.14. If the level remains in the hands of the bulls, there will be grounds for short-term long positions. Conversely, if the level returns to the bears, this would be a reason to trade a rebound from resistance and sell the euro.

The euro is trading around 1.1368, consolidating after a sharp downtrend that began on September 7. Technically, the euro is in a strong support zone, and we could expect the currency pair to rebound in the coming hours.

If the euro rebounds above 1.1368 in the coming hours, this will be considered a buy signal with targets at the 21 SMA around 1.1407, and we ultimately expect it to reach the 3/8 Murray level around 1.1413.

If downward pressure persists, we could expect the euro to consolidate around 1.1352; this zone represents strong weekly support, which is also considered a good point for a technical rebound. We should monitor this zone, waiting for the price to show signs of a recovery before opening long positions with a target at the upper band of the downtrend channel.

Our outlook for the euro could be bullish provided the price consolidates above 1.1350. A decisive break above the downtrend channel and consolidation above 1.1413 could be seen as a clear signal to continue buying in the coming days, with targets at the 4/8 Murray level around 1.1474; ultimately, we expect EUR/USD to reach the 61.8% retracement level near the 200 EMA at 1.1532.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we will try to buy the euro in the coming hours with a stop-loss below 2/8 of Murray.

Crude oil is trading around $91.98, moving within the downtrend channel that has been forming since September 14, following a sharp technical correction after it reached the upper band of the uptrend channel. CL crude has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and from this level—around $96—we have seen a sharp decline.

In the coming hours, crude oil could consolidate around $91.54. If the instrument gets stuck under downward pressure, we could expect a technical rebound toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level around $93, which could then be seen as a signal to continue selling, with targets at the psychological level of $90; ultimately, we expect it to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $87.50 in the coming days.

The outlook for crude oil remains bearish; therefore, if the price reaches the upper band of the downtrend channel around $94.40 in the coming hours, we could also view this area as an opportunity to open short positions.

If the price consolidates above the 23.6% Fibonacci level—which also coincides with the 21-day SMA—this could be seen as a signal to buy, with targets at $93.50 and $94.40.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we should expect a resistance zone to continue selling.

Bitcoin is trading around $84,094, having reached the upper band of the uptrend channel. We could expect a technical bounce in the coming hours, and since the price is right at the support zone, we could see the cryptocurrency recover toward the psychological level of $85,000.

If Bitcoin rebounds above current price levels in the coming hours, it could reach the 21 SMA around $85,077; this zone could act as strong resistance, and if it falls below it, we could see another technical correction.

If Bitcoin breaks decisively above the 21 SMA and consolidates above $85,000, the outlook could be bullish, and we could expect it to return to the $87,500 level.

Conversely, if Bitcoin reaches $85,100, we should keep a close eye on this price level, as technically we could expect a technical reversal to occur. BTC could even break decisively out of the uptrend channel and accelerate its move toward the 6/8 Murray level at $81,250.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels, and technically, we could be looking at resistance zones at $85,100, $86,700, and finally $87,500 as areas to open short positions.

Gold is trading around $4,271, rebounding after hitting a low of $4,250. This area represents strong support, and we could expect the price to recover in the coming hours, potentially reaching the 3/8 Murray level around $4,296 or even the 21 SMA around $4,315.

Recent trading has shown strong downward pressure on gold; however, we have also observed strong support on the H4 chart. Therefore, we believe a recovery could occur in the coming hours, so we will look for opportunities to buy from current price levels with a stop-loss below the low on the H4 chart and with targets up to the upper band of the uptrend channel at $4,335.

We believe that gold could rebound in the coming hours and even during Friday's US trading session. Therefore, from a technical perspective, we will look for opportunities to buy above $4,270, with targets at $4,300 and $4,335.

A potential area to open short positions could be if the price reaches $4,315 or $4,335; both levels could offer strong resistance and could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels; therefore, after a technical rebound, we should look to sell when strong resistance levels are reached.

The test of the 158.23 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. However, the pair failed to rise, resulting in the position being closed at a loss.

Durable goods orders and the University of Michigan data, including inflation expectations, will be the main events for the U.S. dollar in the second half of the day, while speeches by Williams and Hammack will, in my view, merely repeat the rhetoric already heard this week. However, for the yen, today has developed in a much more dramatic way than might have been expected. In the morning, the Bank of Japan's core consumer price index for August was released, accelerating to 1.8% year on year from 1.6% in July and exceeding the forecast of 1.5%. This significantly exceeded market expectations and strengthened the case for further normalization of the central bank's policy. However, political statements had a much stronger impact on the currency. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that she had directly told U.S. President Donald Trump that the yen was undervalued, describing this as "problematic," and the yen updated its intraday high following her remarks.

Equally significant is the confirmation that Trump himself shares these concerns. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that the U.S. president expressed similar concerns about the yen's weakness during a meeting with Takaichi in New York this week and added that she would continue coordinating actions with her counterpart, Scott Bessent. For USD/JPY, this combination of signals appears much more significant than routine rhetoric from Fed officials: strong Japanese inflation data had already given the central bank grounds to tighten policy, and now there is also clear political pressure from both sides of the Pacific, which could lead to further currency interventions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches the 158.23 level (the green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 158.68 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.68, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.91 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.23 and 158.68 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 157.91 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.57, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.23 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.91 and 157.57 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make market-entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The levels I indicated were not tested during the first half of the day.

Today's speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey did not trigger any significant market reaction, and the pound continues its gradual recovery against the U.S. dollar. In my view, this movement is quite natural given the profit-taking following the pair's recent prolonged decline, rather than being the result of any new fundamental signals from the central bank. Given that GBP/USD has declined significantly over the past few sessions, market participants appear to have started partially closing short positions accumulated during the decline, which explains the lack of a pronounced reaction to Bailey's neutral tone. I believe this technical correction could continue, especially if U.S. economic data do not produce any new surprises in favor of the dollar, although it is still too early to speak of a full trend reversal against this backdrop.

For GBP/USD, the key reference points will now be U.S. durable goods orders and the University of Michigan data, including the Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. In my view, speeches by Williams and Hammack are unlikely to add anything new, as the rhetoric of both speakers has already been heard this week. If today's U.S. data are strong, increasing the market's confidence in further Fed action, GBP/USD could, in my view, return to the weekly low.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches the 1.3240 level (the green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 1.3260 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3260, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from the level. The pound can be expected to rise today only if U.S. data are very weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3221 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3240 and 1.3260 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3221 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3198, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3240 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3221 and 1.3198 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make market-entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1388 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro, and I made the right decision, as no significant rise followed.

The data showed that Germany's GfK consumer climate index for October was much weaker than expected, falling sharply to -30.6 points versus the forecast of -27.1. The overall picture was supplemented by a batch of data for the eurozone as a whole. Private-sector lending growth in August fell short of the consensus forecast, coming in at 3.1% versus the expected 3.2%, while the M3 money supply increased exactly as much as the market had expected, by 3.5%. Nevertheless, this data had virtually no effect on the euro, which is becoming a consistent pattern this week.

The key risks for EUR/USD in the second half of the day remain the U.S. durable goods orders data and the University of Michigan data, including the Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Speeches by John Williams and Beth Hammack will add to the picture, but they are unlikely to bring any surprises, as both have already commented in recent days, while the overall tone of Fed officials this week has been surprisingly consistent. For the euro, this sequence of statements means that the market has already largely priced in the hawkish shift in the Fed's rhetoric, and today the determining factor is likely to be the economic data rather than new comments from Fed officials. Weak orders data or a disappointing University of Michigan report could give the pair temporary relief, while strong figures, in my view, would only reinforce the already significant divergence with the much more cautious ECB, keeping EUR/USD under pressure.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1397 level (the green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the 1.1420 level. At 1.1420, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any rise in the euro today can only be expected as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1382 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1397 and 1.1420 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1382 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1363, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1397 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1382 and 1.1363 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make market-entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The eurozone released a batch of economic data, and the picture was mixed. Germany's GfK consumer climate index for October fell sharply to -30.6 points, compared with expectations of -27.1. This means that German households are considerably more pessimistic than analysts had expected, while the index itself reflects consumers' willingness to spend and make major purchases. Eurozone private-sector lending for August was also weaker than forecast, rising by 3.1% versus the expected 3.2%, while the M3 money supply matched expectations at 3.5%.

There were no data releases from the United Kingdom today, so the pound moved solely in line with the broader market sentiment. Interestingly, the euro reacted very weakly to this entire batch of European data, continuing the trend that has already developed this week. Even the strong morning data on German business activity and business climate previously failed to give the pair sustained directional movement. In my view, the reason for this lack of momentum lies not in the quality of the European indicators themselves, but in the fact that the market is currently focused elsewhere.

Next, all attention will be focused on U.S. Treasury yields, which are holding near their ten-year highs. It is yields, rather than the latest economic data, that are currently determining sentiment toward the U.S. dollar. As long as Treasury yields remain attractive to buyers, the dollar continues to receive support almost automatically, regardless of specific economic releases.

If you are interested in the data, the market will have to digest several developments in the second half of the day. Durable goods orders will be released, showing whether U.S. businesses are willing to invest in equipment and machinery despite high borrowing costs. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, along with inflation expectations, will also be released, indicating how concerned ordinary Americans are about rising prices amid high oil prices. John Williams and Beth Hammack will also speak, but I do not expect any surprises here. Given that virtually all Fed officials have already taken a hawkish stance this week, including Tom Barkin and Susan Collins, today's comments themselves are unlikely to become an independent market trigger.

The negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz will also provide a significant backdrop, potentially affecting oil prices and, consequently, inflation expectations on both sides of the Atlantic. For the euro and the pound, this means that if today's U.S. economic data are strong, they will only confirm the prevailing consensus in favor of further Fed tightening, making it extremely difficult for either pair to find a reason for an independent recovery.

Momentum

For the euro, the key level on the upside is 1.1389. A breakout above it could take the pair toward 1.1414 and then 1.1433. Such a scenario is realistic only if durable goods orders are clearly weak or today's Fed speakers adopt an unexpectedly dovish tone. So far, neither scenario appears likely. I consider a downside breakout below 1.1362 much more likely, with targets at 1.1335 and 1.1312, as both high Treasury yields and the Fed's established hawkish stance continue to weigh on the single currency.

For the pound, the upside level is 1.3252, above which the pair could move toward 1.3282 and then 1.3313. However, the pound simply has no domestic drivers for such a move today, unless the U.S. dollar unexpectedly weakens following the evening data. A downside break below 1.3215, with targets at 1.3180 and 1.3140, looks more logical, especially since the pound has moved passively throughout the day, following the sentiment toward the U.S. dollar.

Mean Reversion

For the euro, I am watching the upper boundary at 1.1406. The idea is simple: the pair attempts to move above this level, but there are not enough buyers to sustain the move, and the price falls back below it, generating a sell signal. Given the euro's current lack of momentum and high U.S. Treasury yields, this scenario appears reasonable. The lower reference level at 1.1371 works according to the opposite logic. However, buying here should be approached with caution, as a sustained rebound will be difficult without a clear deterioration in U.S. economic data, and it would be reasonable to keep the target for such a trade modest.

For the pound, the upper boundary is 1.3250. The same reversion setup applies here, and given the complete lack of domestic drivers for the pound today, a false breakout to the upside followed by a quick return inside the range appears to be a plausible scenario. The lower reference level at 1.3215 implies buying on a rebound after a false downside break. However, this level should be approached with caution, as the evening release of U.S. economic data and comments from Fed officials could still significantly change the market situation before the end of the session.

The wave structure may now once again become more complex. Wave C has taken a three-wave form, while the next wave is identified as wave D. The entire trend segment that began on January 27 may now take a five-wave corrective form, A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, wave D is complete, and on August 21, EUR/USD entered the phase of forming wave E, whose low should be below the low of wave C at 1.1325. Now there is only one question: will the news background support the dollar enough for the pair to fall below 1.1325? We get the answer to this question every day: no support from the news background is required.

The Trade Agreement Between China and the United States Did Not Affect the Market.

The EUR/USD rate declined by 10 basis points on Thursday and, in general, continues to lose ground almost every day. Thursday can certainly be called a significant day, as negotiations between China and the United States regarding the trade truce, which was due to expire on November 10, ended successfully. The truce was extended until January 10, 2027. In my view, the extension of the truce by two months is a rather questionable success, but relations between China and the United States remain tense, and peace remains fragile. Accordingly, even two additional months of calm are a positive factor.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after the negotiations that the additional time would give both sides an opportunity to assess their economic options, which could lead to a more comprehensive, longer-term, and mutually beneficial agreement next year. I would like to remind you that since Trump returned to the White House for a second term, a new trade war has broken out between China and the United States. Last year, import tariffs reached triple-digit levels, which could effectively have halted all trade between the two superpowers. However, the tariff rates were subsequently reduced, while China suspended its ban on rare-earth metal exports for one year. Nevertheless, tensions in relations between China and the United States persist. In particular, Donald Trump is demanding that Beijing end all dealings with Iran, while Beijing is demanding that Washington stop supporting Taiwan. The situation could flare up again at any time with renewed intensity.

General Conclusions.

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the framework of the global corrective trend segment A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, the decline in the exchange rate will continue toward targets below the low of wave C at 1.1325. I considered this scenario to be an alternative one, and if it had not been for the Fed meeting, it would have remained a reserve scenario. However, the Fed delivered a surprise, and the market was left with no other option but a new wave of U.S. dollar buying. However, buying has continued for several weeks, even though there are no new supportive factors for the dollar. I would not open short positions with such a news background.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment can be seen, followed by the formation of a corrective A-B-C structure. This structure may take a five-wave form, but at present, I consider it complete. If this is the case, a new impulsive upward trend segment has begun to form.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Bitcoin has finally outgrown its destructive bear cycles, proving the asset's maturity. The Japanese currency has been squeezed between Tokyo's record interest rates and Washington's inflation fears, ignoring classic support measures.

Meanwhile, the tech landscape exploded with the launch of autonomous AI agent Muse, which is rapidly dethroning incumbent champions, and institutional giants led by BlackRock continue to buy crypto ETFs en masse, cementing crypto's status in the global economy forever.

We examine four major events of the week that define today's agenda and set the direction for the investment market in the near term.

End of the panic era: Bitcoin survived without total losses for the first time. What it means for your investments

Previously, bears mercilessly drove the average holder into unrealized losses. Recall the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 cycles — the network went deeply negative for a long time, and investors realized heavy losses. This cycle was an exception.

Even at the point of maximum despair in June 2026, when the deepest drawdown occurred, the price never crossed the fatal line. The NUPL index (net unrealized profit/loss) remained in positive territory throughout the decline — the first time this has happened in the history of Bitcoin bear markets. Yes, individual participants suffered losses, but the network as a whole did not move into a state of total loss.

The share of coins in profit fell to levels seen in November 2022, but losses were "broad, not deep." That prevented classic capitulation and the wild seller pressure we saw in previous cycles. Today, Bitcoin is recovering after a drawdown of only about 30% from the all-time high. By comparison, at comparable stages of prior bear markets, the asset fell by more than half.

Where are we now, at the end of September? Bulls have firmly pushed the price back above the True Market Mean (~$77,000). Right now, a battle is taking place in the $84,000–$85,000 area — a zone of concentration for long?term holders.

Where to watch next? The next major wall for bulls is around $96,700 (the average level in the MVRV model). It lines up with the gamma positioning of Deribit options ($95,000–$97,000). A breakout above this level would open the way to new highs.

But don't get comfortable: any retracement below $84,000 will bring a test of the critical support at $77,000 and call the resilience of the current recovery into question.

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A rate hike didn't help: how US inflation is cornering the yen and why Tokyo is preparing a counterstrike

The Japanese currency is being tested again. Despite the Bank of Japan's historic rate hike, the yen is stubbornly sliding toward the psychological abyss of 160 per dollar. What is behind this fall, and who will ultimately challenge Wall Street?

This week, the yen plunged to the 158 area per dollar. The move wiped out the euphoria that followed Tokyo's recent monetary tightening and again threatened the critical 160 level.

On Thursday, Japan's finance minister Satsuki Katayama made it clear: Tokyo will not passively watch the currency weaken. Speaking to the press, she effectively threatened intervention, reminding markets that "the principles established after the previous joint intervention remain in force." She referred to the coordinated strike on speculators Japan and the US carried out on July 31.

On Thursday morning, Tokyo trading offered the Asian currency a small reprieve: the yen recovered about 0.3% to 157.85. But that bounce after four days of continuous declines only masks the bleak picture. In two weeks, the currency slid from a comfortable 152 at the start of September back into turbulent territory where authorities were forced to take emergency measures.

The main paradox is that even unprecedented steps by Tokyo cannot reverse the trend. On September 18, the Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate to 1.25% — the highest in 31 years. But the interest-rate gap between the US and Japan proved too deep to be closed by a single regulator move.

Wall Street added fuel to the fire. US macro data published on September 23 came in stronger than expected and rekindled investors' inflation fears. S&P Global's composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 56.0 a month earlier.

Against that backdrop, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.13%, hitting highs not seen since 2007. Weak results at the five-year note auction added further pressure.

The market instantly revised its expectations. CME Group's FedWatch now prices in about a 70% chance of another Fed hike at the October meeting (a week earlier the probability was 50%). The Fed's hawkish stance was reinforced by Fed governor Michael Barr, who said on Wednesday that "further rate increases are likely needed to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner."

Can Tokyo hold the line alone? It's a rhetorical question. The yen's resilience now critically depends on Washington's willingness to help.

During the July intervention, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided Japan with dollar liquidity that prevented destabilizing sales of US Treasuries. Bessent, known for his tough stance, has repeatedly warned speculators not to bet against the yen. Calling himself a "major player" in the FX market, he made clear the US has the resources to punish the "bears."

Experts agree we are one step from a financial showdown. Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, notes that for now the mere threat of intervention is keeping the yen from falling below 160. "However, if USD/JPY does return to 160, Bessent's authority will face a serious test," he warns.

His colleague, currency strategist Carol Kong, sees no room to maneuver: "A rapid breach of that level would materially raise the likelihood of official intervention. Authorities would simply have no other choice."

End of ChatGPT's hegemony: how Meta's AI agent Muse dethroned competitors

Just a month ago, it seemed the market balance in AI had been settled. But in early September, Meta Platforms released its new AI agent Muse, and the industry was shaken.

In weeks, the app not only overtook ChatGPT in download charts but forced Wall Street to urgently rewrite financial models and turned the company from a perceived laggard into an unquestioned leader of the tech race.

Hard numbers from Sensor Tower cited by Reuters paint a picture of a real triumph. On September 18, Muse reached No. 1 in the US App Store, beating not only OpenAI's ChatGPT but also Google Gemini and Anthropic's Claude.

In the first 10 days in the US, the app was downloaded more than 730,000 times. Globally, Muse was installed 2.8 million times in 12 days after launch, with average daily audience growth of about 55%.

Why did Muse spark such frenzy among users and investors? The secret is in its architecture. Unlike classic chatbots that only generate text, Muse runs inside its own isolated virtual machine. That allows it to act autonomously: making purchases, booking travel, filling out complex forms and managing calendars, freely navigating web pages and integrating with third-party services.

Users can give it commands via a standalone app or over WhatsApp. On September 18, Meta took another step, releasing a desktop Muse for macOS, fully embedding AI into people's everyday ecosystems.

Financial markets reacted instantly. On September 15, amid early reports about Muse's buzz, Meta shares jumped roughly 11%. But that was just the beginning. Within days, major analysts began raising price targets one after another.

Wells Fargo raised its target to $796, while Tigress, Raymond James and Citizens set targets up to $995. Evercore ISI described the shift succinctly: Muse turned out to be a far more powerful growth catalyst for the company than the once-touted metaverse. "Meta has executed the perfect pivot from the image of an AI laggard to that of its undisputed winner," they said.

Behind the empirical excitement came cold financial math. Raymond James estimates Muse's daily audience already reaches 300,000 users. Analysts project annual operating costs for the ecosystem at around $12 billion, with potential revenue of $50 billion — meaning Muse alone could raise Meta's annual revenue (currently about $228 billion) by more than 22%.

BlackRock pours $1.5bn into crypto ETFs, taking the lion's share of the market

While retail investors try to guess short-term price moves, the big money is placing surgical bets. According to SoSoValue data cited by Finbold, in the five trading days ending September 24, 2026, investment giant BlackRock bought over $1.5 billion of crypto exchange-traded funds.

This massive move not only strengthens BlackRock's position — it cements the firm's status as the absolute hegemon in the US spot crypto-ETF market. BlackRock's total digital-asset AUM now stands at an impressive $78.14 billion.

The main catalyst for buying was the flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Over the period, it attracted $1.19 billion of net inflows, bringing BlackRock's total exposure to Bitcoin to $67.25 billion.

Ethereum products also showed strong dynamics. The core iShares Ethereum Trust added $320.45 million (AUM reached $9.74 billion). The newer staking product, iShares Staked Ethereum Trust, gained $15.64 million, comfortably clearing $1.15 billion in assets.

To grasp the scale, consider the broader backdrop. This week, the total crypto market cap swelled by more than $260 billion. But the standout figures are the shares. US spot Bitcoin ETFs collected $2.653 billion over five days — nearly 45% of that total went to BlackRock alone. The Ethereum funds tell a similar story: of $680.72 million in total inflows, BlackRock's two products took almost half.

Institutional appetite has surged since mid-September. Benzinga notes a striking sequence of inflows: on September 21, BlackRock funds gathered $504.3 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum products. On September 22, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $715 million, led again by IBIT with $350 million.

We essentially saw a four-day run of inflows totaling $2.3 billion into Bitcoin funds. The market is effectively divided among the "big three": BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK 21Shares account for about 91% of all money. Ethereum funds are showing similar persistence, recording net inflows for the fourth consecutive day (as of September 24).

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The causal logic is straightforward: the less Ethereum physically sits in exchange wallets, the narrower the supply actually available for trading becomes. With steady or rising demand, that limited supply can amplify price moves more strongly than when large volumes of coins sit on exchanges awaiting sale. The beneficiaries of this structure are existing Ethereum holders, whose positions are technically insulated from sudden selloffs coming from large exchange reserves. For new buyers, however, any spike in institutional or retail demand risks translating into faster, sharper price moves than raw trading volume alone would suggest.

Notably, this structural signal overlays an overall positive market psychology: the Fear & Greed Index is at 71 — in the greed zone but below the extremes where market participants typically begin to take profits in anticipation of a correction. The combination of shrinking exchange supply and moderately elevated — but not extreme — risk appetite creates conditions in which the market can continue rising without an immediate technical overheating, which usually shows up when the index exceeds 80–85.

I wouldn't rule out that this combination — structural supply scarcity on exchanges plus moderate greed rather than euphoria — explains Ethereum's resilience to sharp pullbacks in recent weeks. A classic reversal at peak greed typically requires both overheated sentiment and excess exchange supply to sell into; right now only the first of those two factors is present.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading in the $82,200–85,700 range, and the trading plan revolves around two mirrored scenarios for breakouts and rejections. A break above $84,600 triggers a buy activity, targeting $85,700, where profit should be taken and a reversal to short considered on a possible retracement. Entry conditions are mandatory: price must stay above the 50-day moving average, and the Awesome Oscillator must be in positive territory. The second buy scenario is a dip: if the price approaches the lower band at $83,600 but a downside breakout is not confirmed, treat that as a false move and open a long position, targeting $84,600 first and then $85,700 as a wider technical target if the rally extends beyond the near range.

Short positions are arranged symmetrically. A confirmed break below $83,600 leads to a sell activity, targeting $82,200, with mirror conditions: the moving average above price and Awesome below zero. The second short scenario works from a rejection at $84,600 if an upward breakout fails to confirm, opening a path to $83,600 and then $82,200.

Ethereum

Ethereum is trading in the $2,636–2,721 range, and the logic mirrors Bitcoin's on its own price scale. A break above $2,688 signals a buy, targeting $2,721 under the same conditions — rising moving average below the price and Awesome above zero. The second buy variant is a dip at $2,663 if a downside breakout is not confirmed, aiming first for $2,688 and then $2,721 as a wider continuation target.

Sell setups for Ethereum start with a break below $2,663, targeting $2,636, if the price is below the moving average and Awesome is negative. The second sell works from a rejection at $2,688 if an upward breakout fails to confirm, with targets back to $2,663 and then $2,636. Both indicators are used purely as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early; decisions are made only after price confirms the specified levels.

The GBP/USD pair is showing a slight increase, trading above the round level of 1.3200, which was the low on June 29 and has also become the September low. However, the current fundamental situation supports the bears, requiring caution from the bulls.The U.S. dollar has paused its recent decline from a two-month high, thereby providing some support for GBP/USD. However, hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, high Treasury yields, and persistent geopolitical risks are supporting the dollar. In addition, the Bank of England's more cautious stance, reflected in its intention to keep interest rates unchanged or gradually lower them due to concerns about stagflation, points to the possibility of a continued decline in the pair.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a probability of more than 65% of another Fed rate hike in October, following the 25-basis-point hike in September.

Additional concerns about inflation caused by rising oil prices are reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Fed and continuing to push U.S. Treasury yields toward multi-year highs. This, in turn, strengthens the positive outlook for the U.S. currency and raises doubts about the sustainability of GBP/USD during attempts to rise.

For additional signals regarding the future course of the Bank of England's monetary policy, it is worth waiting for the scheduled speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. His remarks will affect the dynamics of GBP/USD and the British pound.

During the North American session, attention will need to be paid to U.S. macroeconomic data, including durable goods orders and the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. In addition, comments from key members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could affect the U.S. dollar and create new trading opportunities for GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD remains below important moving averages, including the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating that any attempts by the pair to rise are likely to remain limited while bearish sentiment dominates the market. The SMA at 1.3452 represents a key barrier that the bulls need to overcome to ease the current selling pressure. However, the nearest resistance is at 1.3260.

If the pair declines, a break below 1.3200 would open the way toward the current-year low of around 1.3160, set in June. Further selling would provide a strong signal for the bears and could lead to a further decline in the exchange rate in the short term.

The oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a correction. The table below shows the percentage change in the U.S. dollar exchange rate against key currencies this week. The U.S. dollar recorded its largest appreciation against the Australian dollar.

At present, we are dealing with a structure that may develop into a five-wave pattern. We have seen a clear three-wave correction that can be identified as wave 2 or B. Therefore, after it was completed, the formation of a new impulsive structure began. The first wave of this structure was quite extended and contains no internal corrective waves. Therefore, a corrective wave may begin soon. At present, the pair has declined to 1.1365, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. An unsuccessful attempt to break this level would indicate that the market is ready to form the long-awaited corrective wave.

I would also like to remind readers that the news backdrop often has a strong influence on wave labeling. At present, it is difficult to expect further strengthening of the U.S. currency based on the news backdrop. In recent weeks, the wave structure allowed for a rise in EUR/USD, but the news pushed the price lower. The news flow has subsided, but the U.S. currency continues to strengthen.

News Background

The news background this week was mixed. There was little economic news, the market ignored geopolitical developments, and demand for the U.S. currency increased throughout almost the entire week, regardless of the news. Therefore, it can be said that the flow of news in recent days has had virtually no effect on the euro or the dollar. I can only highlight several speeches by Fed officials, which confirmed their willingness to continue maintaining a hawkish stance. The FOMC's commitment to tightening monetary policy was probably the main reason for the U.S. currency's appreciation, although, in my view, the dollar did not warrant such a strong increase based solely on expectations of a future Fed rate hike. If the dollar had risen by 100 pips after the Fed meeting in anticipation of future policy tightening, this could have been explained. However, the U.S. currency has been rising sharply for a week and a half since the updated intentions of the U.S. central bank became known.

Most importantly, the market continues to increase its demand for the U.S. currency, and even 1.1365 may not be the final level of the decline. A successful break below this level would lead to a further decline in the instrument. We have not seen a corrective wave since September 9. The movement has been almost one-sided, and such movements are generally not driven by news. Such movements are referred to as "order flow," meaning the flow of orders. The further the price declines, the more pending orders are triggered, causing the price to continue declining.

General Conclusions

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within a downward segment of the trend, which may develop into either a three-wave or five-wave pattern. After a decline of 280 points, it is reasonable to expect the formation of a corrective wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break below 1.1365, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level, would indicate that the market is ready to take partial profits on short positions, which could lead to a rise in the instrument toward 1.1420 and 1.1470, corresponding to the 161.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci levels. A break below 1.1365 would indicate that the market is ready to decline toward 1.1274.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The market situation remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave, which is still forming, broke the previous low. Thus, the bears now have the initiative. FOMC monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh have sharply strengthened the dollar's position. A break in the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567 or after two bullish waves have formed.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday allowed the bears to take a pause, but they once again chose not to do so. There have been enough events this week that could have halted the bears' advance, yet the bulls remain silent. Perhaps Friday will at least prove corrective, and traders will forget about FOMC monetary policy tightening for a moment. There are simply no other opportunities for the pound to rise. Thus, the British pound has long been due for a correction, but this correction has yet to begin. However, in my view, the more strongly the dollar rises now, the more sharply it will subsequently decline. I still do not see serious grounds for a three-week decline, even despite the Fed's policy tightening. I would like to remind readers that the Bank of England is also prepared to raise interest rates, while the geopolitical backdrop has eased somewhat this week, which should have reduced demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields are setting new 20-year highs almost every day, putting pressure on the U.S. budget.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3288, allowing traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.3159. A rebound from 1.3159 would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth toward 1.3277. A bullish divergence is developing in the CCI indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category did not change during the latest reporting week and remains bearish. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,189, while the number of Short positions decreased by 4,310. The current gap between Long and Short positions is effectively 69,000 versus 128,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance raised no questions, but now it does, as the fundamental backdrop has changed.

I still do not believe in the bearish trend in the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. Nor is it certain that they will resume in the near future.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Change in Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On September 25, the economic calendar contains two entries, of which I would highlight only the report on durable goods orders. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment in the second half of Friday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sell trades were possible after consolidation below 1.3272 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3177. These trades can be kept open. Buy trades are possible today after a rebound from the 1.3164–1.3177 level, with a target of 1.3272.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low and has continued forming for three weeks already. Traders expect at least one more FOMC monetary policy tightening by the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide very strong support for the U.S. currency.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday once again allowed bullish traders to launch a counterattack this week. First, it became known that negotiations between Iran and the United States at the UN in New York had gone well. Donald Trump said so, adding that everything would soon be resolved and that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons. Second, Iran itself expressed its readiness to open the Strait of Hormuz if Washington fulfills a number of conditions. Clearly, there are many conditions, and the White House will not accept many of them under any circumstances. However, this is an opportunity for negotiations, a deal, and peace. Third, China and the United States agreed to extend the trade truce for another two months, until January 10, 2027. All three of these events, in one way or another, gave the bulls an opportunity to attack. A reduction in geopolitical tensions would lower demand for safe-haven assets, including the dollar, while a trade deal between China and the United States would ease trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Thus, the safe-haven dollar continues to rise solely on the FOMC monetary policy factor. Hawkish expectations continue to increase, but the bears cannot attack indefinitely.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1449. Thus, the euro's decline may continue toward the next retracement level of 0.0% at 1.1325. A rebound from the 1.1325 level would allow for a reversal in favor of the euro and some growth toward the 1.1449 Fibonacci level. A bullish divergence is developing in the CCI indicator, which could stop the bears' attacks.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 10,491 Long positions and closed 5,132 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-five weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid market hopes for an end to the conflict. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 209,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 235,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing.

Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show greater interest in the euro. Clearly, events of various kinds around the world, which have been abundant in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war alternately appears to end and then resumes. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence Index (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On September 25, the economic calendar contains three entries, of which I can highlight only the report on durable goods orders. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment in the second half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Buying the pair is possible today if the hourly chart closes above 1.1416, with targets at 1.1473 and 1.1519. Sell trades were possible after consolidation below 1.1473, with targets at 1.1416 and 1.1325. These trades can now be closed in profit. New sell trades are possible after a rebound from 1.1416.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849 to 1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.

On Friday, gold (XAU/USD) remained in consolidation, staying close to the weekly low set the previous day amid a predominantly bearish fundamental backdrop.

The U.S. dollar paused after a sharp rise to a two-week high, providing some support for the commodity. However, hawkish rhetoric from the U.S. Federal Reserve, high U.S. bond yields, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty are strengthening the position of dollar bulls, keeping the precious metal below the $4,300 level.

After raising interest rates in September, Fed officials have been sending persistent hawkish signals, hinting at the possibility of further monetary policy tightening. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said that, given rising inflation risks and the resilience of the economy, the U.S. central bank would likely continue raising interest rates. In addition, the results of a private survey showed that U.S. business activity reached its highest level since July 2021, while prices paid by companies for resources rose to levels not seen in almost four years. On Thursday, New York Fed President John Williams also noted that another interest rate hike this year appeared quite reasonable.

Williams made a highly decisive statement, receiving a score of 7.2 out of 10 on the FXS Speechtracker Index (versus a historical average of 6.2), highlighting a more hawkish stance than the baseline scenario. His emphasis on the resilience of the economy, reduced risks to maximum employment, and strong demand for artificial intelligence technologies, together with his statement that another rate hike by the end of the year would be justified, points to the Fed's intention to keep inflation under control despite the absence of clear forward guidance.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index declined by 0.18 points to 148.63, indicating some moderation in hawkish sentiment. However, it remains significantly above the neutral level of 100, confirming the Fed's hawkish policy stance and supporting the dollar even as high yield levels are being revised.

In addition, inflation risks associated with high energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports, are reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Fed. This is pushing U.S. bond yields to multi-year highs. For example, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are at a level not seen since July 2007, supporting the dollar and limiting gold's upward potential. In addition, uncertainty over the future of the conflict between the United States and Iran is strengthening the dollar as a safe-haven asset and calls for caution among XAU/USD bulls.

Among recent developments, Donald Trump's statement earlier this week is worth noting, when he said that he had considered taking tough military action against Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran remained committed to its nuclear program, creating risks for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The escalation is being reinforced by actions taken by the Houthis in Yemen, who carried out missile strikes and attacks on strategic facilities in Saudi Arabia. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium relevant and again highlights the potential for the dollar to strengthen.

From a technical perspective, the short-term outlook for gold remains bearish as long as the price stays below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). A confident break above this zone would be required to weaken bearish sentiment. The oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage.

The table below shows the percentage change in the U.S. dollar exchange rate against major currencies this week. The U.S. dollar recorded its largest gain against the Australian dollar.

The S&P 500 is still trading tug-of-war style. The return of the AI boom led by Meta Platforms and its new AI agent is pulling the index higher. Meta shares are up 36% in September, marking their best monthly performance since 2013, and market cap is on the verge of $2 trillion.

Meta Platforms monthly performance

On the other side, the index is pressured by worries about high Treasury yields, inflation, and Fed policy. Those forces weaken equity fundamentals, force stocks to compete with the bond market for investor capital, and potentially reduce corporate profits via higher costs. All these bearish drivers have a common root — oil. Right now, it is effectively running the markets.

The correlation between crude and bond yields is approaching record levels. With 10-year yields back at 2007 highs and 30-year yields at peaks not seen since 2004, while Brent has rolled over, uncomfortable questions arise: have yields climbed too far, threatening not only equity markets but the broader US economy?

Correlation dynamics: US Treasury yields and oil

The answer depends on oil's ability to tolerate higher rates. Thanks to AI-driven productivity gains, higher rates may cool the economy less than in the past. I believe the S&P 500 can withstand a higher cost of capital.

JP Morgan argues equities can still rally even as bond yields lift the bar for valuations, thanks to a so-called earnings supercycle. Investors simply need to be selective in their equity picks.

Gama Asset Management sees the most likely near-term outcome amid the sharp Treasury sell-off as consolidation for the S&P 500. The index can resume its rally once bond yields stabilize. That outcome is logical. Consolidation may also reflect rotation dynamics — a swing back into tech from rate-sensitive sectors.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is fighting for the upper boundary of a descending trading channel. To cement their edge, bulls need to push through fair value at 7,710, which would justify adding long positions.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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New home sales in the US rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July's 643,000, but remained 2.0% below August last year's 698,000. The average sale price of a new home in August was $478,700 — 9.1% below July's $526,400 and 8.8% below last year's level — while the median price actually edged up slightly to $393,700 from $392,200 in July, but still sits 5.8% below the year-ago mark. This implies that the sales increase was driven primarily by more affordable homes rather than a broad market recovery. The sharp divergence between the mean and median price points to a shift in the sales mix toward the cheaper segment rather than a sustainable pick-up in demand across the market.

The supply of homes for sale at the end of August stood at 483,000, virtually unchanged from July and 2.0% below the year-ago level. At the current sales pace, this corresponds to 8.5 months of inventory versus 9.0 months in July — so the housing market has eased slightly but remains well above the level typically associated with a healthy supply-demand balance.

At the same time, labor market data added another stroke to the picture of moderate cooling. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19 fell by 1,000 to 197,000, and the four-week moving average declined to 202,250 from 204,000 a week earlier. Continued claims for the week ending September 12, however, rose slightly to 1,719,000, although the four-week average for this series fell to 1,744,000 from 1,757,000. The direct reading here is: the fall in initial claims indicates mass layoffs are still not occurring, but the small rise in continued claims suggests finding a new job after separation has become a bit harder than a month ago — so the labor market is cooling more through slower hiring than rising layoffs.

It is this combination of the two reports that explains the dollar's muted reaction. Neither release gave market participants a clear argument for further Fed tightening or for an imminent pause: housing sales increased, but due to a lower average ticket, and the labor market painted a mixed rather than decisive picture. Against the backdrop of this week's far clearer signals — such as record PMI business activity readings and a series of hawkish Fed comments — these two reports were not significant enough on their own to move market expectations decisively in either direction.

In my view, each report individually confirms the already established picture of gradual, not abrupt, cooling in the US economy, which is why the dollar treated them calmly and continues to focus on more weighty signals like Fed speeches and activity data. I would not be surprised if the next truly meaningful trigger for the dollar comes not before the September employment report or fresh regulator commentary, rather than from another housing or claims print.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD

Buyers should think about taking out 1.1390. Only then will a test of 1.1415 be possible. From there, a move to 1.1430 could follow, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On a decline, I expect significant buying only around 1.1360. If no buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1335 or open longs from 1.1315.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3240. Only then will a move toward 1.3285 become realistic, above which further advances will be difficult. The next extended target is around 1.3315. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of 1.3200; a break would seriously damage bull positions and push GBP/USD toward 1.3180 with the prospect of extending to 1.3150.

Meanwhile, billionaire investor Tim Draper criticized Apple and Meta for their unwillingness to invest in "digital gold." Draper said that large tech companies could buy Bitcoin and other digital assets to protect their capital from devaluation and financial instability. He also warned that rising government spending and public debt threaten the stability of the dollar. Current US fiscal policy could lead to hyperinflation and force the Federal Reserve to turn on the printing presses. He added that the higher federal funds rate will increase borrowing costs, reduce purchasing power, and create financial hardship for Americans.

According to Draper, the only real rescue is Bitcoin. He argues Bitcoin should not be viewed simply as a volatile investment instrument but as protection against inflation. The expert believes holding savings in crypto is far more reliable than in commercial banks, and that quantum computers in the future could break traditional financial systems much faster than they could break the Bitcoin network. However, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple are not rushing to build crypto reserves, which frustrates Draper. Notably, the largest tech companies in the world likely know what they are doing. Draper himself is a Bitcoin backer and investor, so this is another opinion from an expert with a personal stake in the asset's rise. Naturally, in his view, everyone should buy Bitcoin so the asset continues to grow and reward early investors.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin displays all the signs of the start of a new bull trend. This trend begins, as usual, with a pump that has no concrete or clear reasons. The Federal Reserve has not started cutting interest rates, and the Clarity Act was not passed. In the near term, on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may decline, as the price has reacted to a bearish FVG. We also note for traders that the current breakout beyond the daily consolidation channel may be a deviation — yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin can still fall back to $57,500. On the 4-hour chart, long positions can be considered locally from the most recent bullish FVG; however, we currently favor a corrective scenario.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily timeframe, the technical picture for Ether changed completely in just a few days. Ethereum is now looking toward a new uptrend. However, traders should base decisions on the weekly chart, where Ethereum is heading toward $4,800 — the upper band of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the first bearish FVG did not produce a significant price reaction; the next FVG might. Bitcoin likewise filled the nearest bearish FVG, so both cryptocurrencies may begin a correction in the near term. The recent rise in digital assets has been driven solely by a pump. There are currently more fundamental reasons for a drop in both cryptocurrencies than for further growth.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop-Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

Global benchmark Brent fell below $106 per barrel after rising more than 7% over the previous two days, while WTI traded around $93. Both countries, which have failed to reach similar agreements in recent months, sought a breakthrough on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but so far real action beyond words has not materialized.

Today, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had submitted a new seven-day proposal to Washington to open Hormuz subject to certain conditions. The concrete seven-day time horizon distinguishes this initiative from earlier rounds of talks. It helps explain why the market reacted with a noticeable price drop rather than another wave of cautious optimism.

Recall that since the start of the year, Brent has risen more than 70%, amplifying inflationary pressure. That backdrop explains why the market is pricing in any move toward de-escalation so sharply. Without material changes, Brent will likely remain in the $100–110 range, whereas a convincing phased deal could quickly push the price back below $100. At the same time, another disruption to exports or logistics could again put $120 back on the table.

On the shorter horizon, despite the Friday pullback in near futures, oil remains on track for a weekly gain because several widely watched indicators continue to signal serious concerns about near-term supplies. The Strait of Hormuz itself remains effectively closed. The Islamic Republic insists on sovereign control over the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil and gas shipments pass in peacetime. At the same time, the US says the route's status should not change even as it maintains a blockade of Iranian ports.

In my view, Iran's seven-day proposal and the simultaneous expansion of France's and Britain's military presence in the region show that diplomatic and military tracks are developing in parallel, not sequentially, and that makes the market particularly cautious about judging real progress. I do not rule out that, absent concrete confirmation of a deal within the coming week, Brent will retest the upper boundary of the range at $110, while an actual launch of a phased agreement could quickly take the price down toward the lower boundary of about $100.

On the technical side, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $96. That would allow targeting $100, beyond which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farthest target is the $104 area. In the event of a decline, bears will try to seize control of $92. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push Oil down to a low of $89 with the prospect of reaching $87.