Thus, the overall consumer price index in July stood at 3.4% year-on-year, after falling to 3.5% in June. By comparison, in May the headline CPI was 4.2% year-on-year, so the deceleration is indeed striking. In month-on-month terms, the indicator rose by only 0.1% in July, after a 0.4% decline in the previous month.

For the second consecutive month, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also declined. In May it hit a seven-month high at 2.9% year-on-year, then eased to 2.6% in June, and finally to 2.5% in July. In month-on-month terms, the core index rose 0.2%, after zero growth in June.

And although all the headline indicators matched forecasts, another point is important for the market in the current circumstances: July's data did not confirm fears of a renewed acceleration of inflation in the US.

The main monthly "accelerator" of CPI was the shelter component. The corresponding sub index (shelter) rose 0.1%, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the month's overall CPI increase. At the same time, the dynamics here remain fairly moderate: rents and the implied cost of housing rose 0.3% month-on-month, while in year-on-year terms shelter increased by 3.2%. This remains noticeably above the Federal Reserve's target, yet July's figures do not provide grounds to speak of a new acceleration in housing inflation.

Another source of upward pressure was the services sector. In July, medical services, air travel, communications and education became more expensive. Airfares stand out especially, rising 2.2% month-on-month and immediately 25.5% year-on-year. Medical services gained 0.6%, and services excluding energy rose 0.2% overall.

At the same time, many components worked to slow inflation. First and foremost, this concerns food. The food index rose only 0.1%, while groceries for home consumption fell by 0.1%. Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs declined most noticeably (on average by 0.7%), while fruits and vegetables fell 0.1%. All this indicates that the food segment did not add extra inflationary pressure in July.

Yet the main July surprise in the CPI structure was the energy component. The energy index fell 1.5% last month, and gasoline prices dropped by 2.9% immediately. This is particularly important given July's context: the month saw another escalation in the Middle East and sharp moves in the oil market, so energy could have become one of the main pro-inflationary risks. With renewed US air strikes and retaliatory actions by Iran, Brent repeatedly rose above $90. It might have seemed that energy would be a key source of added pressure on US consumer prices. However, this did not happen: in July's CPI, the oil shock effectively did not materialize, and energy, by contrast, became one of the main factors restraining overall inflation growth.

Of course, it would be premature to draw a categorical conclusion about the complete disappearance of oil risk. As is known, there is a time lag between changes in oil prices and their reflection in retail fuel prices (which means August data could be much more sensitive to developments in the oil market). Nevertheless, the July report is important because it reflects the actual reaction of consumer prices already during a period of heightened geopolitical tension. And we have not yet seen that reaction in the form of a new spike in inflation.

July's CPI should also be viewed in the context of July's Nonfarm Payrolls. Briefly, last Friday's US labor market report showed employment fell by 23,000, and the results for the two previous months were revised down by a total of 103,000. In addition, average hourly earnings rose only 3.2% year-on-year — the weakest pace since May 2021. In monthly terms, wages barely changed, rising just 0.1% (against a forecast of 0.3%).

Thus, July's CPI and NFP together form a fairly coherent picture. Nonfarms pointed to a noticeable cooling of the labor market and weakening wage pressure, while consumer inflation did not accelerate even despite serious geopolitical and energy risks. In other words, on both key fronts — the labor market and inflation — July's data showed an absence of additional price pressure. The weakening of employment and the wage component is occurring alongside a slowdown in consumer inflation.

This combination reduces the probability of further Fed tightening and simultaneously increases the likelihood that over the coming quarters the central bank may consider cutting rates — if July's trends persist.

The EUR/USD pair reacted to Wednesday's release by rising to 1.1563. However, buyers could not test the resistance at 1.1570 (the upper Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart), after which sellers again took the initiative. The downward impulse also quickly faded near the 1.1530 target.

Against the backdrop of persistent uncertainty over prospects for resolving the Middle East conflict, traders remain cautious — both buyers and sellers. Therefore, despite weak CPI and NFP, it is too early to speak of a sustainable trend: the market is waiting for new geopolitical signals that could tip the balance one way or the other. Until such signals appear, the pair will likely remain consolidated in the 1.1520–1.1570 range, the bounds of which correspond to the lower and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 chart.

Fed Rate Dynamics and Treasury Yields

The Brent oil rally and rising US Treasury yields have restored momentum to EUR/USD "bears." Treasury yields fell last week on weak nonfarm payrolls data, reducing the odds of a federal funds rate hike. However, the escalation around the Strait of Hormuz reminded the market of inflation risks — and with them the Federal Reserve's "hawks." Treasury yields will move, and the US dollar will follow.

In fact, weak US labor data no longer looks like a sufficient argument to pin yields down. Mediators from Pakistan said the parties are "close to some agreement" on Hormuz. But until white smoke appears over the strait, participants in the derivatives market are pricing a geopolitical-risk premium and, with it, a rising probability of Fed tightening.

All eyes are on the US consumer price index data due Wednesday. A soft report could restore bond gains after the labor-market-driven selloff. A strong print, especially with rising gasoline, would justify expectations of tighter Fed policy and vindicate the hawks. As Mizuho notes, a soft CPI could help tactically, but the question is whether it will be enough to offset pressure from energy and supply chains ahead of September.

Nevertheless, the ongoing conflict and fading prospects for a quick resolution could weigh on the bond market regardless of the inflation report. In such a scenario, the dollar gains two advantages at once — safe-haven status and higher yields. The euro remains hostage to a foreign war, watching the Strait of Hormuz from the sidelines without its own arguments for a counterattack. ING strategists believe the rate differential between the US and the eurozone stays in the dollar's favor until the European Central Bank clearly signals the end of its easing cycle.

Is the greenback ready to hold its position if the strait is opened after all? I doubt the market longs for that outcome as much as the dollar itself seems to.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is contesting an important level — 1.1525. This is where the upper boundary of the fair-value range and the 2-4 line of the Wolfe Wave pattern sit. A top-down breakout will be the basis for selling. A rebound — for buying the euro against the US dollar.

The USD/JPY pair reached a one-and-a-half-week high, and now bulls seek to build momentum above the 9-day EMA amid a favorable fundamental backdrop.

The initial strengthening of the yen, prompted by the first joint US–Japan intervention since 1998, lost steam because the large interest-rate gap between Japan and other major economies continues to support carry-trade activity, undermining the yen. In addition, aggressive economic stimulus and tax cuts implemented by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi raise concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal position. These factors, together with economic risks stemming from ongoing energy supply disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran, continue to pressure the yen and provide a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, Reuters Tankan survey data showed the Japanese manufacturers' sentiment index rose from 13 in the previous month to 18 in August, reaching its highest level since March 2026. The non?manufacturing companies' indicator also increased, rising to 28 from 25 in July. Traders are increasingly pricing in the probability of another Bank of Japan rate hike, with Tokyo Tanshi data showing a 66% chance of such a move in September. However, this does not impress yen bulls or weaken the overall bullish sentiment for USD/JPY.

The US dollar, for its part, is strengthening this week amid expectations that rising oil prices will revive inflationary pressure and force the Federal Reserve toward a firmer stance. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now put the probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026 at above 75%. This supports higher US Treasury yields which, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, contribute to dollar strength and to USD/JPY.

Nevertheless, traders are cautious ahead of the important US consumer price index (CPI) report. In addition, Thursday's producer price index (PPI) will influence market expectations about future Federal Reserve policy, which in turn will affect dollar demand. Events in the Middle East crisis could also significantly strengthen the dollar and USD/JPY. Still, these factors support the prospect of the pair continuing to recover from the 155.25–155.20 area, which is the lowest level since May, recorded earlier this month.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is trying to hold above the 9-day EMA. But for bulls to have a chance of further gains, they need to overcome the 100-day SMA. For now, oscillators are negative, and bears have the advantage.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen versus major currencies this month. The yen has shown the greatest strength against the Swiss franc.

The USD/CAD pair strengthened slightly, interrupting a three-day decline and showing resilience just below the 100-day SMA. However, quotes do not yet demonstrate confidence in a bullish trend as the market awaits the release of the latest US inflation data.

The release of the critically important US consumer price index (CPI) and Thursday's producer price index (PPI) could provide new guidance for future Federal Reserve policy. These data will have a significant impact on dollar demand in the short term and could provide USD/CAD with fresh momentum. At the same time, the mix of conflicting factors is keeping traders from making aggressive bullish bets.

On Tuesday, oil prices reached a one-and-a-half-week high after Mojtaba Khamenei, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the US meets Tehran's demands.

In addition, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen intensified attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, targeting Saudi vessels. These events pushed oil prices higher, thereby strengthening the commodity-dependent Canadian dollar.

Meanwhile, investors remain concerned that high energy prices could again spark inflationary pressure and force the US central bank to adopt a tougher stance. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently assign more than a 75% probability of Fed rate hikes by the end of this year. This, together with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, provides some support for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and restrains further declines in USD/CAD, which calls for caution from bears.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1541, pulling back after reaching a high of 1.1561. On the daily chart, this level aligns with the 200 EMA, making it a strong resistance level. On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro has encountered strong daily (D_1) resistance, so below this level, we could expect it to continue falling in the coming days.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is trading below the 21 SMA, which suggests that we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around 1.1483 in the coming days or potentially reach the 6/8 Murray level around 1.1474.

The outlook for the euro will remain negative, as a move below 1.1470 could be seen as a selling opportunity.

The Eagle indicator is showing a bearish signal, and we believe the euro could find solid support around 1.1474 in the coming days; this area could be considered a buying opportunity.

A drop below the 6/8 Murray level could change the euro's outlook, and it could quickly reach 1.1352—around the 5/8 Murray level—but there is a chance it will continue to rise in the coming days, so we believe the 6/8 Murray zone will provide solid support for the euro.

Our outlook will be bearish for the next few hours, as below 1.1560 we can sell with the first target at 1.1530, 1.1513, and 1.1483.

The EUR/USD pair remains within the local bearish impulse that began on April 17, but the bulls are putting increasing pressure on their own trend with each passing day. The only thing they lack to establish a bullish trend is the invalidation of bearish imbalance 17, which could have occurred a week ago. However, at the most critical moment, the bulls lost momentum and have been unable to consolidate above this pattern. The fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for the bears. Traders did not receive any clear signals from Kevin Warsh that he is prepared to pursue monetary policy tightening. In July, the number of new Nonfarm Payrolls jobs fell by 23,000, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive month. Inflation slowed by 0.7 percentage points in June and by another 0.1 percentage points in July. All of this suggests that the Fed should not be expected to tighten monetary policy in September.

As I warned in recent weeks, if the labor market once again produces a weak result, this would be a sufficiently strong reason for the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates. Of course, this cannot be stated with complete certainty, but I am almost certain that we will not see monetary policy tightening in the near future. Today's inflation report has strengthened my conviction, and almost all traders are now abandoning their hawkish expectations for September. However, this is still not enough to invalidate imbalance 17.

Let me remind you that expectations of Fed monetary policy tightening are currently just expectations, which can change in response to geopolitical developments or economic data. The latest US labor market data were weak, inflation slowed, and GDP growth declined. These three factors cast doubt on an FOMC rate hike in the foreseeable future. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened in the near future, this would only ease energy market pressures and allow inflation to continue declining, further weakening the bears' prospects. The bears' only opportunity at present lies in a new escalation and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The current chart structure indicates that the bearish impulse that began on April 17 remains in place. Bearish imbalance 17 has been tested, but the reaction to it was weak. Therefore, this pattern could be invalidated. A bullish imbalance 19 has also formed, allowing the bulls to look to the future with optimism. If imbalance 17 is invalidated while imbalance 19 remains untested, traders will have to wait for new bullish patterns before they can consider opening long positions.

The economic backdrop on Wednesday turned out to be less favorable than it had appeared in the morning. US inflation slowed to 3.4% year-on-year, but this was exactly the figure traders had expected. Thus, their expectations were met, but at the same time, inflation showed only a minimal slowdown and could begin rising again as early as next month. The report supported the bulls, but not strongly enough to finally break the bearish impulse.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to advance in 2026, and even the war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, the Trump administration's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I see no significant factors supporting the US currency despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Nevertheless, the bears remain in control for now, and there are no bullish signals.

US and European Union Economic Calendar

European Union – Industrial Production (09:00 UTC).

• US – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

On August 13, the economic calendar contains three releases, none of which I consider important. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Thursday is likely to be weak or nonexistent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears five months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. Therefore, the bulls may well continue their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. A sell signal could have formed within imbalance 17, but the reaction was weak, so this pattern will most likely be invalidated. A bullish signal could form within imbalance 19, but the price is moving increasingly farther away from this pattern. Despite the relatively strong rise in the European currency, there is currently no clear setup for opening long positions. It is necessary to wait for new bullish patterns to form, for imbalance 19 to be tested, or alternatively trade the British pound.

The GBP/USD pair continues to rise, which I consider fully justified. Last week's reports on the US economy and labor market put an end to the debate over whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in September. Nonfarm Payrolls declined for the fourth consecutive month, but this time it not only came in at a low level but also turned negative. The number of jobs in the US economy is no longer simply growing slowly; it is declining. A similar situation occurred several times last year, when the Fed had to cut interest rates three times to prevent a further deterioration in the labor market. In recent weeks, there has been extensive speculation in the market that high inflation would force the Fed to raise rates. Kevin Warsh also spoke about excessive inflation that needs to be brought back to the target level. However, as expected, inflation is not the only factor that matters. Given the current Nonfarm Payrolls figures, I do not expect monetary policy tightening. This is negative for the dollar. The latest US inflation report has made FOMC monetary policy tightening even less likely. Recall that the market began pricing in a rate hike two months ago, and now it is being hit by a new wave of disappointment every week. I believe the dollar's decline will continue. Unlike the euro, the pound does not face significant obstacles above. On the contrary, the pound has formed a bullish signal and can continue to rise with relatively little resistance.

As I have already mentioned, geopolitics is no longer providing support for the dollar, as new escalations in the conflict occur approximately once every two weeks, while negotiations between the United States and Iran have reached a complete deadlock. Officially, Tehran is negotiating only with Oman. It remains unclear what these negotiations will lead to in terms of ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may be able to agree with Oman on the terms for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but how would that resolve the conflict with the United States and lift the US blockade of the strait?

In the first half of the week, oil rose to $92 per barrel. If the situation begins to develop according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices will continue to rise and retest the March–May highs. In this case, inflation in the United States or the United Kingdom would begin accelerating again. If, however, the situation develops according to the optimistic scenario, oil prices will return to the $60–70 per barrel range. In that case, Fed tightening may not be necessary, while the Bank of England is already not facing the problem of high inflation. At present, however, it is the Fed that cannot bring itself to take a hawkish step, while the Bank of England, by contrast, would be prepared to tighten monetary policy only if inflation begins to accelerate—which there are currently no signs of.

The chart analysis shows a renewed advance by the bulls. At present, traders have two bullish imbalances (24 and 25), within which buying opportunities can be considered. Imbalance 24 has already produced a bullish signal that traders could have acted on by opening long positions. There are currently no bearish patterns.

The economic news background on Wednesday once again favored the bulls. The inflation report did not surprise traders, but at the same time, it indicated a second consecutive decline, thereby reducing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening. The US dollar came under renewed pressure.

The overall news background remains such that, in the long term, I see little reason to expect anything other than a decline in the US dollar. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this. The possibility of Fed rate hikes in 2026 has not changed this either. Geopolitical developments prompted the market to recall the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its active phase. The likelihood of FOMC monetary policy tightening has declined significantly in recent weeks, putting pressure on the US currency. Therefore, in my view, any dollar appreciation is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I see no reason for a new bearish advance.

US and UK Economic Calendar

• US – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

On August 13, the economic calendar contains two releases, both of secondary importance. The impact of the economic news background on market sentiment on Thursday is likely to be weak or nonexistent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

The long-term outlook for sterling remains bullish. After liquidity was taken from the two most recent swings, the bulls began an advance, followed by a corrective pullback and another bullish move. This week, I expect the pound to continue rising, as the US labor market reports came in weak and the probability of FOMC monetary policy tightening is now extremely low. The US inflation report further undermined traders' expectations of Fed tightening. If the bears launch another advance, bearish patterns will be needed to consider short positions, but there are currently none. The bulls received a buy signal from imbalance 24. The upward targets for sterling are the highs from July 15 and May 1—1.3557 and 1.3656, respectively, with the first of these levels already almost reached. The 1.3557 swing should be monitored closely, as liquidity could be taken from this level. If this happens, the pair could decline somewhat.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to rise above the 100-day SMA. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for more information on the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid inflation risks associated with fluctuations in oil prices. This, in turn, could affect the US dollar and provide significant momentum for the precious metal.

Ahead of the release of the key data, oil prices remain stable at a one-and-a-half-week high as hopes for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have diminished.

An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that this important waterway would not be reopened until the United States met Tehran's demands. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels in Yemen have increased attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, particularly vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. These developments are driving oil prices higher and increasing concerns about inflation.

Commerzbank analysts note that "hopes for a new agreement between Iran and the United States in the near future and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly fading" as the diplomatic situation hardened over the weekend. They emphasize that Iran has "set conditions for reopening the strait," including "demands for reparations," to which US President Trump responded with "new demands for compensation payments to victims of the conflict." According to Commerzbank experts, this escalation of reciprocal demands highlights the declining likelihood of an agreement to restore full transit through the key waterway, increasing risks in energy markets.

This offsets signs of weakening in the US labor market and strengthens the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders believe that the probability of the US central bank raising interest rates at least once by the end of the year is above 75%. The outlook remains supported by high US Treasury yields, which, together with persistent geopolitical uncertainty, support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Amid the confrontation between the United States and Iran, Asia was shaken by North Korea's early launch of a ballistic missile.

This occurred several days before major joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. Meanwhile, Taiwan condemned planned naval exercises by China and an Indonesian warship off the island's eastern coast. This could also contribute to further strengthening of the US dollar and calls for caution before taking positions to continue gold's positive performance observed over the past week.

From a technical perspective, gold is showing resilience below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while remaining below the dense resistance zone formed by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is located around the psychological level of $4,500. This indicates that bulls need to break through this zone to regain control of price movement.

On the other hand, important support is located at the 200-day EMA. However, as the oscillators remain positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market, the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside. It should be noted, however, that the Relative Strength Index is close to the overbought zone, indicating that the bulls need consolidation.

The test of the 159.28 level occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential.

The yen gained quite well, but its decline was quickly bought up ahead of important US data. The market is now awaiting a key US inflation report, including the Consumer Price Index and its core measure, excluding food and energy prices. These data directly shape expectations for Fed policy, as accelerating prices strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy, while the core measure is considered the most accurate indicator of persistent price pressures. A sharp increase in inflation would support the dollar through higher US Treasury yields and growing expectations of a hawkish stance by the central bank. For the yen, such a scenario carries a risk of weakening, as a stronger dollar amid high inflation would widen the divergence between the Fed's approach and the much more cautious stance of the Bank of Japan. This difference traditionally weighs on the Japanese currency, and a strong report could push USD/JPY higher. Weak inflation, by contrast, would weaken the dollar and allow the yen to recover some of its lost ground.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 159.25 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 159.63 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.63, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the outlook is relatively uncertain. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 159.10 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.25 and 159.63 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 159.10 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.79, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 159.25 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.10 and 158.79 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Crude oil is trading around $81.84, after pulling back from a high of $83.25—a level that matched the July 30 high and, in turn, also appears to have filled the gap that formed in that area.

Crude oil could consolidate in the coming days and settle above the psychological level of $80. If WTI falls below the 5/8 Murray level, it could find strong support around the 200 EMA and 21 SMA moving averages, as these converge at that same level.

A technical rebound above $81.25 could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying the instrument in the coming days in anticipation that it will reach the 6/8 Murray level around $87.50. As an ultimate target, we expect it to close the gap left on June 23 around $89.60.

A drop in the crude oil price below $79.83 could change the scenario, and we would expect the downtrend to continue, potentially reaching the 4/8 Murray level around $75—which, in turn, could bring the price to the $76.12 area. It also serves as a target for bears so that the gap from August 7 could be closed.

On the H4 chart, the Eagle indicator shows a positive signal, so a technical bounce around $70.83 or above $81.25 will be considered an opportunity to continue buying in the coming days.

Gold is trading around $4,420, showing signs of exhaustion in its upward momentum and consolidating below this strong resistance level at $4,438.

Gold could undergo a sharp technical correction in the coming days, and we could expect it to reach the 4/8 Murray level around $4,375. A decisive break below this area could accelerate the decline, potentially reaching the 3/8 Murray level around $4,218. Ultimately, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,176.

During Tuesday's US trading session, gold managed to rebound above the 4/8 Murray level, which provided it with strong upward momentum. However, XAU is currently showing overbought conditions, so we expect the upward momentum to wane or the consolidation around this zone.

Given that there is strong resistance around $4,436, and we could expect a double-top pattern to form, both levels could present an opportunity to sell below this zone.

Given that the Eagle indicator has reached the 90-point zone—which suggests a technical correction in the coming days—we should exercise caution when buying, as the best option might be to sell below $4,440 with a stop-loss above $4,470.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The test of the 1.3512 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.

The pound rose sharply as short positions were covered ahead of important US data, and everything now depends on the results. The focus will be on the Consumer Price Index and its core measure, excluding food and energy prices. The Consumer Price Index shows how quickly prices are rising and directly affects expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate, while the core measure, which excludes volatile components, more accurately reflects persistent price pressures and is therefore closely monitored by the central bank. Under these conditions, the pound is becoming dependent on external factors. A sharp increase in inflation would strengthen the dollar on expectations of tighter Fed policy, potentially pushing GBP/USD lower, while weaker figures would weaken the US currency and support the British pound. This report will be the key factor for the pair in the near term.

Until the data are released, the pound will be guided by overall risk appetite, but volatility is expected to increase significantly after the release. The British currency has no major domestic drivers at present, so its direction will depend largely on the dollar, while the magnitude of the move will depend on how far the inflation data deviate from economists' forecasts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3526 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 1.3561 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3561, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A continuation of the pound's upward trend today can be expected only if the US data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3510 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3526 and 1.3561 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3510 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3468, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound is expected to return if the US data are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3526 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3510 and 1.3468 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1544 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved considerably above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Accelerating inflation in Germany gave the euro a slight upward impulse, although the structure of the report was not as straightforward as it initially appeared. Consumer prices in Germany increased by 2.8% in July, compared with 2.3% in June, and the market initially interpreted this as an argument in favor of a more hawkish ECB policy, which supported the single currency. The main driver was fuel, which became 11% more expensive, while core inflation was only 2.4%.

In the second half of the day, the release of US inflation data will keep the entire market on alert, as it could set the tone for trading. The Consumer Price Index and its core reading, excluding food and energy prices, will be released, and both indicators are critically important because they influence the Fed's interest rate path. The core index is particularly important because it reflects underlying price pressures while excluding volatile components and is therefore considered a more reliable indicator for the central bank. For the dollar, this report remains one of the key drivers. A sharp increase in inflation would support the US currency through rising expectations of monetary policy tightening, while a slowdown in price growth would weaken its position.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1549 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 1.1579. At 1.1579, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected only if the US data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1529 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1549 and 1.1579 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1529 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1495, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the data are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1549 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1529 and 1.1495 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), data that could become a decisive factor for the direction of the cryptocurrency market following yesterday's reversal in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Friday's disappointing employment report. The consensus forecast calls for annual inflation to slow to 3.4% from 3.5% in June, while the core measure, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to decline to 2.5% from 2.6%, its lowest level since January.

If the data come in above expectations, approaching the previous May levels of around 4%, the cryptocurrency market's reaction will most likely repeat the scenario seen in late July, when concerns about a rate hike alone caused Bitcoin to fall sharply. Three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents have already voted for an immediate rate hike at the July 29 meeting, marking the most significant split within the committee since 2016. Hot inflation data would give this hawkish minority additional arguments to make another attempt at the September meeting.

The opposite scenario—a stronger-than-expected slowdown in inflation, to below 3.3% or 2.4% for the core measure—could reproduce the effect of Friday's weak employment report, but this time in relation to the inflation component rather than the employment component of the Fed's dual mandate. Such an outcome would virtually eliminate a September rate hike from market expectations and restore risk appetite, potentially allowing Bitcoin to consolidate above the psychological level of $65,000.

An important caveat is that even a sustainably low CPI does not automatically guarantee a dovish shift by the Fed. According to Bank of America, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation measure preferred by the central bank, could come in 0.24 percentage points above CPI on a monthly basis, meaning that it could formally point toward a rate hike even with a favorable CPI reading.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $64,200, with a target of a rise to $64,500. Around $64,500, I will exit the long position and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $63,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $64,200 and $64,400 levels.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $63,900, with a target of a decline to $64,200. Around $64,400, I will exit the short position and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $64,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $63,900 and $63,600 levels.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $1,913, with a target of a rise to $1,931. Around $1,931, I will exit the long position and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,901 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $1,913 and $1,931 levels.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $1,901, with a target of a decline to $1,883. Around $1,883, I will exit the short position and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,913 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $1,901 and $1,883 levels.

In the first half of the day, the euro reacted with gains to news that inflation in Germany accelerated to 2.8% in June. The Consumer Price Index reflects the pace of price growth and directly affects expectations regarding ECB policy, as the stronger the inflation, the stronger the arguments in favor of a more hawkish stance by the central bank. This is why the single currency responded to the acceleration with gains. However, an important detail is hidden behind the headline figure, changing the interpretation of the report. The reason for the acceleration is clear, as fuel made the largest contribution, rising by as much as 11.2%. At the same time, core inflation was only 2.4%, meaning that the increase was purely energy-driven.

The core measure is considered a more accurate indicator of persistent price pressures, and its subdued reading indicates that there has been no fundamental acceleration in prices and that the increase was entirely driven by higher fuel prices. For the ECB, this is an unfavorable signal, as the energy shock has returned to the statistics of the bloc's largest economy precisely when the central bank had been counting on sustained disinflation.

The market is now awaiting much more significant data from the United States, namely the Consumer Price Index and its core measure, which excludes food and energy prices. The Consumer Price Index reflects the pace of inflation and is considered one of the key indicators for the Fed, as price dynamics determine whether the central bank will tighten or ease monetary policy. The core measure is considered more important because it excludes volatile components and provides a more accurate picture of persistent price pressures.

The importance of this report for the dollar is difficult to overstate. A sharp increase in inflation would strengthen the case for a more hawkish Fed stance, pushing US bond yields higher and strengthening the dollar. A weaker reading, by contrast, would reduce expectations of monetary policy tightening and remove support for the currency, so the market will be closely watching the deviation of the actual figure from the forecast.

If the data are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no significant market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EURUSD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1550 could lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1579 and 1.1620.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1528 could lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1516 and 1.1502.

For GBPUSD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3527 could lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3554 and 1.3581.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3490 could lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3464 and 1.3435.

For USDJPY

• Buying on a breakout of 159.39 could lead to a rise in the dollar toward 159.60 and 159.83.
• Selling on a breakout of 159.13 could lead to a decline in the dollar toward 158.83 and 158.57.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EURUSD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.1553, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.1528, followed by a return to this level.

For GBPUSD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.3534, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.3486, followed by a return to this level.

For AUDUSD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 0.7082, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 0.7050, followed by a return to this level.

For USDCAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.3945, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.3914, followed by a return to this level.

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating ahead of the key resistance levels represented by the 200-day EMA and 100-day SMA, which are located close to each other, while remaining within the familiar range that has held throughout the past week. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of key US inflation data and further developments related to the Middle East crisis before making new directional trading decisions.

Today, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are scheduled for release, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Thursday. These reports could provide new clues about the future policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The data will have a significant impact on short-term demand for the US dollar and, consequently, affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, concerns about rising inflation driven by higher oil prices are increasing the likelihood of Fed interest rate hikes, which supports the dollar and limits the pair's upside.

On Tuesday, oil prices reached a one-and-a-half-week high after Mojtaba Khamenei, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened until the United States met Tehran's demands.

In addition, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have increased attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, targeting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. This has led to higher oil prices and strengthened the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Investors are concerned that rising energy prices could once again intensify inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the Fed, to adopt a more hawkish stance. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a high probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. Expectations remain supportive of higher US Treasury yields, which supports dollar bulls and limits significant upside in EUR/USD.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is currently capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-day EMA. This suggests that attempts to move higher remain vulnerable as long as these levels continue to limit further upside. On the other hand, initial support is located at the 9-day EMA, followed by the 14-day EMA near 1.1506, below which the round level of 1.1500 lies. If prices continue to decline toward the 20-day SMA, buyers could attempt to stabilize spot prices at this level. The oscillators remain in positive territory, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market.

The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate around the key psychological level of 1.3500. Traders prefer to remain on the sidelines ahead of the release of significant macroeconomic data from the United States and the United Kingdom.

Important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are due to be released today, followed by preliminary UK GDP data for the second quarter and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations may continue to support the US dollar and limit gains in GBP/USD.

Deutsche Bank analysts emphasize how unstable Fed expectations remain ahead of the release of the latest US inflation data. They note that "this morning, futures indicate a 51% probability of a September rate hike." They added that the current balance of risks could change quickly, depending on the data.

Expectations based on CME Group's FedWatch Tool show that traders are pricing in a probability of more than 75% that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of the year amid inflation risks associated with oil price volatility. Moreover, tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz are providing additional support for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Mojtaba Khamenei, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, said on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States met Tehran's demands. In addition, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen are intensifying attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, targeting Saudi vessels, which is driving up war-risk premiums.

These fundamental factors are strengthening the position of dollar bulls and call for caution when opening positions to continue the pair's recent upward trend, which has been observed over the past two weeks. Nevertheless, the recent break above 1.3500 indicates that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. At the same time, the oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. Resistance remains in the 1.3530–1.3544 level. The nearest support is the round level of 1.3500.

A seven-week pause in purchases and four sales since May, the most recent of which totaled 1,690 coins, are explained by a concrete internal logic rather than a loss of faith in Bitcoin. Proceeds were used for share buybacks, dividends on STRC preferred shares, and to top up the dollar reserve, which grew to $4.65 billion. The key point is that selling some Bitcoin to stabilize STRC paradoxically supports future accumulation. If the stock — here referring to STRC shares — deviates too far from its stated value, it complicates raising new capital and therefore limits the company's ability to buy more Bitcoin in the future. In a July interview, Le put it plainly: "When our shares return to par, we will issue more paper and buy more Bitcoin," linking the next phase of purchases to the recovery of the preferred shares, which pay a 12% yield every two months.

Le also outlined the company's view of the current market phase, calling the existing roughly eight-month bear cycle a normal occurrence, since historical drawdowns of 8–12 months have not been unusual for Bitcoin. Asked about the company's financial health, he replied confidently, pointing to a roughly $55 billion Bitcoin position with only about a 4% debt load and reserves sufficient to pay dividends for about 2.7 years. He added that Strategy today has many more management tools available, including the ability to both sell and buy Bitcoin, to work with preferred and common shares, and to flexibly manage the dollar reserve depending on market conditions.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $65,000, which would open a direct path to $66,000 and then toward $66,800 — a break above that level would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $63,400. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $62,300. The most distant target would be around $60,600.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,916 would open a direct path to $1,974. The furthest target would be the high around $2,012; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,868. A move back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,834. The most distant target would be around $1,782.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

From a technical perspective, it is trading below the strong resistance level of 4430.

Technical Picture and Trading Idea:

The price is above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and above the SMA 5 and SMA 14. The RSI is above 50 and moving sideways. The Stochastic is rising and is above 50.

Consolidation of the gold price above 4430 would open the way for further growth toward 4494.50. The 44326.15 level could serve as an entry point for a long position. SL: 4346.47.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains "bullish." The latest completed downward wave broke the previous low, but the latest upward wave also broke the previous high. Geopolitical developments have raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, while Iran, the United States, and Oman are holding talks on control of the strategically important strait. Thus, geopolitics is currently not working in the dollar's favor, while the market's "hawkish" expectations regarding FOMC monetary policy are easing.

There was no significant news background on Tuesday. Traders showed absolutely no interest in the weekly ADP report or existing home sales, which does not surprise me at all. Today, the U.S. inflation report will be released, and it will determine the dollar's fate this week. Let me remind you that last Friday's weak Nonfarm Payrolls report significantly reduced the already low chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening in September. The inflation report could reduce those chances even further or even eliminate them entirely. However, if inflation unexpectedly accelerates in July, this could strengthen the bears, as the chances of an interest rate hike by the end of the year would become high again. Regardless of the state of the labor market, Kevin Warsh has already declared his intention to address the legacy of Jerome Powell and Joe Biden, who allowed inflation to remain elevated for five years. Whether the Warsh team will move toward tighter policy is now almost a philosophical question. If not, Warsh will have to publicly explain why the Committee is refusing to raise rates if inflation is twice the target level.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the downward trend channel, suggesting not merely a "bullish" attack but a full-fledged "bullish" advance and trend. The rebound from 1.1578 allowed the bears to launch a gradual attack, but a rebound from 1.1514 would once again strengthen the bulls. No emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 3,128 Long positions and 17,484 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the past nineteen weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid the apparent ceasefire and market hopes that the war would end. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 202,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 260,000. The bears are once again taking the lead.

Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro. Certainly, events of various kinds around the world, which have been abundant in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then resume again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and then ignored the resumption of the war. Thus, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).

On August 12, the economic calendar contains two events, one of which is extremely important. The economic background could have a strong impact on market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Long positions can be considered today if the pair consolidates above 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. Short positions were possible following a close below 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1507 and 1.1472. These trades can be kept open today.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

Gold jumped sharply and set its sights on the $4,500-per-ounce resistance level after an unexpectedly weak US nonfarm payrolls and ahead of inflation data, which once again altered expectations for Fed rates.

Oil is rising amid a steep drop in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the breakdown of talks between Iran and Oman, sending Brent toward $90 a barrel.

Intel announced a $15 billion share offering to fund AI growth and strengthen semiconductor production. At the same time, Nvidia is developing an open family of models called Nemotron 4 — reflecting a competitive and strategic reshaping of the AI industry.

These stories show how a mix of macro shocks, geopolitical risks, and technological shifts is reallocating capital and risk across markets.

Gold targets $4,500 resistance ahead of inflation report

Gold spiked after an unexpectedly weak US jobs report for July, pushing prices to a several-week high. It was a sharp turnaround for the precious metals, which posted their worst quarterly losses since 2013 in Q2 2026.

On August 7, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July; economists had expected an increase of 80,000. The prior two months were even worse — combined job losses over that period totaled 103,000.

Those figures quickly shifted expectations for interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a September rate hike plunged below 50%.

On Monday, spot gold traded around $4,322–$4,377 per ounce after hitting a multi-week high on Friday. Silver also rallied back above $65 and was trading near $66.70 on Tuesday morning.

The trading instruments discussed in this review are available on the InstaForex platform. To trade them, open an account with InstaForex and download the company's mobile app.

Oil rallies as Hormuz shipping collapses

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply. Hopes for a diplomatic settlement between the US and Iran have faded, and the market is increasingly worried about prolonged supply disruptions.

Shipping analytics firm Kpler reports that 15 cargo vessels transited the strait on Friday, 11 on Saturday, 6 on Sunday, and 7 on Monday. That is well below the roughly 12-ship average over the past 10 days and tiny compared with the roughly 98 cargo vessels that passed daily through the strait before the Middle East conflict began.

The decline followed the collapse of hopes for an Iran?Oman agreement to restore shipping. About one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG shipments pass through Hormuz.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday that talks with Oman are not complete. Tehran said a full reopening of the strait is possible only if US sanctions are lifted, military threats are removed, and compensation is paid for war damage. Iran also rejected direct talks with Washington, citing alleged violations of a temporary agreement reached in June.

Oil reacted quickly. Brent futures rose $4.17, or 4.99%, to $87.72 per barrel on Monday — the largest one-day percentage jump since July 29. On Tuesday, the rally continued, and Brent climbed toward $90 a barrel. New supply concerns compounded the threat of a strait closure.

On Monday, President Donald Trump did not detail next steps in negotiations with Iran, leaving the possibility of military escalation on the table if talks fail. Asked what would happen next, he said, "You'll see."

Earlier, he had called the talks the "last chance" for Iran. On his Truth Social platform, Trump demanded Iran pay compensation for "all the people they've killed" over the past 50 years.

Bloomberg reports Trump has moved away from rhetoric of an imminent peaceful deal toward a more "restrained" stance, hoping that economic pressure from a US naval blockade will force Tehran to give ground.

Intel files $15 billion share offering to fund AI growth

Intel announced a public underwritten offering of common stock for $15 billion — the largest equity raise for the company in years. Intel says it wants to capitalize on demand for AI infrastructure.

In a press release via Business Wire, the company said proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures and working capital. Intel cited "sustained and sizable demand" from customers driven by "unprecedented investments in compute for AI."

Underwriters include J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup. Intel has granted them a 30-day option to buy additional shares worth up to $2.25 billion at the offering price less any discounts. If exercised, total proceeds could reach $17.25 billion.

The company said, "Advances in areas such as physical AI, specialized silicon solutions, advanced

Intel says the offering will help it seize those opportunities while preserving a strong balance sheet and commitment to its investment-grade credit ratings.

Intel filed a Form S-3 shelf registration with the SEC. According to the shelf documents, as of June 27, 2026, there were about 5,043 million common shares outstanding out of 10 billion authorized. The new issue will dilute existing shareholders, who do not have preemptive rights to maintain their ownership percentage.

The company stresses it is "maintaining discipline in capital raising, aligning investments with customer demand and clear return expectations."

The offering comes as Intel seeks to secure key positions in AI chip development and in producing advanced semiconductors for external customers. Bloomberg says Intel is "leveraging renewed investor interest in its business prospects amid an AI data-center boom." The equity raise reflects a shift toward equity financing amid large investments in advanced process fabs, including Intel 14A and advanced packaging capabilities.

Nvidia builds open AI model family called Nemotron 4

Nvidia is working on a new open family of AI models called Nemotron 4. The largest version is reported to contain at least 1 trillion parameters.

There is no firm release date; model training is not yet complete. Reuters reported staff hope to finish by late autumn. If successful, Nvidia would join a small number of large US firms releasing open frontier models. With rising AI costs and pressure from cheaper Chinese alternatives, the shape of the industry is changing quickly.

"We are investing in Nemotron because we believe every company and every country needs accessible, advanced open models to strengthen security, accelerate innovation and create a reliable foundation for generations to build on," Kari Briski, vice president for generative AI, said in a written comment.

This move comes as low-cost Chinese models have significantly narrowed the performance gap with leaders like Anthropic and OpenAI. Recent hacks involving autonomous AI agents have also increased interest in open models, which have fewer application restrictions for cybersecurity purposes.

Last month, Nvidia joined an AI safety coalition. Together with Microsoft and others, it signed an open letter defending models with open weights to avoid driving innovation abroad.

Reminder: the trading instruments mentioned in this text are available on InstaForex; we therefore recommend opening a trading account on that platform and downloading its mobile app.

That timing makes the upcoming SEC meeting on August 14 more than a routine regulatory event — it's a direct signal that the commission under Paul Atkins is shifting from waiting on Congress to taking independent action within its existing authority.

The lone item on the agenda is whether to propose new rules that would create a tailored offering regime for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. The document is titled "Regulation Crypto." This is the SEC's first formal rulemaking since Atkins became chair, and the concept builds on the framework he publicly outlined after his speech at the DC Blockchain Summit. The proposal is structured around three legal mechanisms: startup relief, a larger exemption for capital raising, and a sort of safe harbor for investment contracts that would give projects a clear path out from under SEC jurisdiction once the team stops actively running the network and the token becomes effectively decentralized.

The three?member commission, all Republicans, is expected to approve publishing the draft for public comment — not a final rule. With the usual two- to three-month comment period and subsequent revisions, realistic implementation is unlikely until 2027.

What's happening can be described as the first in a series of rulemaking steps the agency will take to provide regulatory certainty after the Senate stalled ahead of its August recess. The next Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for September 15 — the date White House adviser Patrick Witt called the last real chance for Democrats and Republicans to reach an agreement.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $65,000, which would open a straight path to $66,000, and from there up to $66,800 — clearing that level would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $63,400. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $62,300. The farthest downside target is around $60,600.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,916 would open a straight path to $1,974. The farthest target is the high near $2,012; clearing that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,868. A move back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,834. The farthest downside target is around $1,782.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The wave structure remains "bearish," strange as that may sound. The latest completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave, which is still forming, has not broken the previous high. Thus, the bears remain in control of the market, although they may lose this advantage in the near future. In my view, the "bearish" impulse of 2026 has been completed, and only geopolitics could prevent the bulls from continuing their advance. Geopolitical developments remain contradictory.

There was no significant news background on Tuesday, but the market is already anticipating the U.S. inflation report. The bulls are not ready to continue their advance because they do not understand the prospects for FOMC monetary policy, which will be determined to a large extent by inflation. In my view, inflation remains the key indicator for the Fed, as Kevin Warsh has already stated several times. If his position has not changed, rising inflation will effectively "order" the Fed to raise its interest rate in September. Traders, however, expect the Consumer Price Index to decline in July, but there is no reason to celebrate this. Prices could rise again in August, as oil continues to rise amid the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the United States cannot reach an agreement and are not even trying to do so, simply exchanging accusations, demands, and conditions. Neither side of the conflict is prepared to make any concessions or comply with ultimatums. Thus, the situation in the Middle East is not changing, which is pushing oil and gas prices higher again. If energy prices rise, inflation will rise as well. The question is: what will the Fed do about high prices if the labor market is weakening?

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3467–1.3482. Thus, the upward move may now continue toward the next 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. A close above this level will finally confirm that a "bullish" advance has begun, which could last for many months. No emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,446, while the number of Short positions increased by 13,446. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is effectively 55,000 versus 113,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears' advantage remains substantial. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but it is now, as the news background has changed.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policies, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has repositioned itself toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).

On August 12, the economic calendar contains one event, which is extremely important. The economic background will affect market sentiment during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from the 1.3526–1.3557 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3454–1.3458. These trades can be kept open today. Buying was possible following a close above the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3557. The target was reached. New long positions can be considered following a close above the 1.3526–1.3557 level.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

S&P 500 and oil dynamics

The market is clearly disappointed. A week ago, it reacted enthusiastically to promises of a swift deal on the strait, but no progress has materialized. Pakistan briefly raised investor hopes with optimism over a settlement, but Tehran quickly cooled that sentiment. Add to this the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next steps and the ongoing US-Iran standoff – and you get a market that, as wits have aptly observed, resembles a sandbox: here, one sleeps with one eye open and holds the pillow tightly.

However, not everything is unambiguously gloomy. Corporate earnings continue to surpass expectations and remain at record levels, while equity positioning remains surprisingly restrained. According to the American Association of Individual Investors, bears have outnumbered bulls for 20 of the last 25 weeks, a ratio last seen following Donald Trump's imposition of global tariffs. Such unanimity among skeptics has in the past often preceded continued rallies rather than their end – healthy cautiousness after a 22% rise in the S&P 500 since late March.

US inflation dynamics

The main test, however, lies ahead. Wednesday brings the July CPI report. The market expects a 0.1% rise following a 0.4% decline the previous month. Bloomberg economists suggest core inflation may drop to its lowest since March 2021. Montis Financial expects the report to continue the downward trend and strengthen the case for a rate pause rather than a hike, especially given the weak US labor market data.

Interactive Brokers warns that macro data alone may not be enough. The equity rally will only continue if there is tangible progress on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.

In effect, the market is now balancing between strong corporate fundamentals and rising profits on one side, and geopolitical uncertainty and a divided Fed on the other. Risks appear roughly balanced, while the specter of rate hikes and military escalation in the Middle East has not disappeared.

Will the inflation report be able to outweigh the anxiety over the Strait of Hormuz?

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 index has tested the important pivot level of 7,730. Success for bears in this endeavor would provide a basis for selling, as it would increase the risks of activating a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. Conversely, a bounce off the key support level would allow adding to previously established long positions.