Bitcoin is trading around $81,009, below the 6/8 Murray level, and pulling back after reaching a new high of around $82,304.

Bitcoin was unable to break above $82,300, as this zone coincided with the upper band of the uptrend channel formed since August 21, and Bitcoin is likely to struggle to continue rising above this zone.

If Bitcoin falls below $81,250 in the coming hours, it could be seen as an opportunity to sell, with targets at $78,125, and it is expected to reach the lower band of the uptrend channel around $77,000.

The outlook remains bullish for Bitcoin, so a pullback toward the 5/8 Murray level or the 21 SMA at $78,125 could signal a strong technical rebound, and we could open long positions with targets at about $81,250 and ultimately at $82,300.

Bitcoin is strongly overbought on the daily chart so we could expect a reversal in the coming days. In this case, we must monitor whether the price remains below the 6/8 Murray level; if so, it could be considered a selling opportunity.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell Bitcoin below $81,250; alternatively, if there is a pullback toward $82,300, that could also be considered a sell signal. The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, suggesting that Bitcoin will undergo a technical correction in the coming days.

ETH is trading around $2,507, above the 8/8 Murray line and above the 21 SMA, consolidating after a strong upward move that occurred yesterday during the US trading session.

Since August 22, ETH has been trading within a rectangle pattern between a high of $2,567 and a low of $2,450.

In the coming hours, Ethereum is expected to encounter strong resistance around $2,567; this zone could be viewed as an opportunity to take short positions in anticipation of a drop to the psychological level of $2,500—it could even retreat toward $2,343.

If the consolidation continues and the price remains below the psychological level of $2,500, then we could view this zone as an opportunity to sell, with targets at $2,442, and ultimately, we could expect it to reach $2,350. If ETH breaks below this support level, it could reach the 200 EMA around $2,223.

In the coming days, we expect Ether to trade within a range of highs and lows, so we must keep an eye on the levels we've identified as potential sell zones and, in the event of a pullback, look to buy on the technical rebound.

If Ethereum breaks above $2,567, we could expect it to reach the +1/8 Murray level around $2,656. And if the instrument falls below $2,350, we could expect it to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $2,187.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell Ethereum below the psychological level of $2,500, with targets at 2,442 and $2,390. The Eagle indicator is showing a bearish signal, which supports our bearish strategy.

Meanwhile, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said that in the next "bull" cycle Bitcoin could overtake gold by market capitalization. Gold's market cap is now over $30 trillion; Bitcoin's is $1.5 trillion. Of course, anything is possible in this crazy world, but this forecast seems somewhat inflated and optimistic to us. Compare gold and Bitcoin dispassionately: gold is a physical precious metal that humanity has used as a store of value for centuries. Bitcoin is computer code with no physical application or intrinsic use value. If gold ever stops serving as a store of value you can still make spoons and forks out of it — some utility. You cannot make anything out of Bitcoin. We do not belittle Bitcoin's value, but in our view it will never become more popular than gold with investors. By the way, gold's supply is also limited, so this property is not unique to Bitcoin.

Zhao also said that, over time, states will begin to accumulate digital assets, and more than half of such an "ideal reserve" could be Bitcoin. Remember that national reserves are meant to preserve capital in any situation and at any time. For example, if a Third World War begins and the internet stops working, gold will still be recognized globally — but Bitcoin?

General BTC/USD Picture on 1D

On the daily TF, Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend. The trend structure is identified as descending, and the CHOCH line is at $82,800, where the last Lower High (LH) was formed. Only above this level can the downtrend be considered complete. The last and only bearish FVG was pierced through and turned into a bullish IFVG. Thus, in the future, this area will be a POI for long positions. Bitcoin has not yet broken the downtrend, but over the last two weeks the odds of the bearish trend ending have risen sharply. However, there is a high probability of a flat forming between $60,000 and $82,500. That would mean price could take liquidity from the last LH and then start a new decline.

General BTC/USD Picture on 4H

On the 4?hour TF, it is clear how Bitcoin literally rocketed. Analyzing the 4?hour TF right now makes little sense because the moves are too strong. Therefore, signals in the coming days should be sought on the daily TF or even the weekly TF. Nevertheless, one point must be noted. Price removed liquidity from the last local high for the second time and also formed a flat. Thus, a second deviation of the upper boundary of the sideways channel could trigger a drop toward the lower boundary.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend despite the strong rally a week earlier. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), although this level has effectively already been played out. We do not believe the downtrend is finished. The current rise in the top crypto looks very little like a corrective move, and this is not a strong argument for opening long positions. The current movement looks more like pumping. Liquidity may be grabbed from the $82,850 high, which could provoke a new leg of the downtrend. On the 4?hour TF, one can also expect another drop after the second liquidity grab from the last local high.

Explanations for the illustrations:

CHOCH — change of character (break in the trend structure).

Liquidity — liquidity, stop losses, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG — fair value gap (area of price inefficiency). Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating that one side was absent; later, price often returns to and reacts at these levels, continuing the main trend.

IFVG — inverted fair value gap. After returning to such an area, price does not react; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — order block. A candle where a market maker opened a position to collect liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

The GBP/USD pair turned upward on Thursday and closed above the critical line and the trendline. Thus, there are grounds to assume the end of the two-week downtrend. However, note that today the US will publish key labor reports and the unemployment rate, so if they print strong readings, the dollar may resume rising. Overall, we can say the market is once again losing faith in a September Federal Reserve rate hike. These swings of expectations have become tiresome. The market reacts to Kevin Warsh's speeches, official statistics, and other Fed officials' statements, yet cannot decide what to expect from the US central bank. Thus we continue to see constant shifts in market sentiment. The macro backdrop this week had little effect on the pair's moves because all US reports except yesterday's were weak. Nevertheless, the dollar held up well throughout the week, except on Thursday. The dollar's drop on Thursday may mean the technical correction is over, and the market expects weak Unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls reports.

Technically, the pound completed the downtrend as the trendline was broken. If today's labor and unemployment reports disappoint, GBP may quickly return to the Senkou Span B line. Overcoming Senkou Span B would allow the pair to resume a medium-term uptrend.

On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, two trading signals were generated. During the European session, the price bounced between 1.3465 and 1.3480, and during the US session, the Kijun-sen line was worked out. Thus, traders could have opened a long position in the morning and taken profit in the evening.

COT Report

COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated, with shorts, for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend. Given the Middle East events, it is unsurprising that demand for the dollar was high in H1 2026. The war is formally not over, and only geopolitics could support the dollar in the near term. However, until a break below the trendline, we would not expect a strong fall in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar should continue to weaken due to Trump's policies, visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another, and Trump's policy tends to weaken the dollar. The long-term uptrend for the pound remains, as shown by the trendline. According to the last COT (Aug 25), Non-commercials opened 16,300 buy positions and 6,200 sell positions, so the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 10,100 contracts that week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly TF, GBP/USD may begin a new upward trend. Medium- and long-term, the pound remains biased upward, so further rises are logical. We still see no strong reasons for prolonged dollar strength, and today's US reports may finally dispel market hopes for a Fed rate hike.

For September 4 we highlight these important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. Senkou Span B (1.3575) and Kijun-sen (1.3535) may also be signal sources. Move Stop Loss to breakeven when price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day; account for that when determining trading signals.

No major UK publications today; in the US, the most important reports are on the labor market and unemployment. Thus, the price may significantly "fly" in the afternoon. Volatility is expected to be high today.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3465–1.3480 if price bounces from the critical line or Senkou Span B. Long positions can be opened on a break above Kijun-sen or Senkou Span B with targets at 1.3671–1.3681.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels — thick red lines near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku lines transferred to the hourly TF from H4. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts — the size of the net position for each trader category.

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to continue the downward move on Thursday, even though the day provided grounds for a new decline. The day's most important report — the US ISM services business activity index — showed a higher-than-expected reading, yet the dollar fell that day. This convinced us that the macroeconomic backdrop still has no real influence on FX market moves. Recall that this week, all reports in the EU and the US (except the latest ISM report) were unfavorable for the dollar. Nevertheless, the US currency rose during the first three days of the week. On Thursday, it fell instead, even though ISM should have supported it. Thus, we tend to believe the issue is Federal Reserve monetary policy. The market does not understand what to expect from the September meeting, so it keeps swinging. As the probability of monetary tightening fell again, the US dollar began to decline. We also remind traders that in the medium and long term the euro is biased upward.

Technically, the pair has completed the downward trend, as evidenced by the break of the trend line. However, the Senkou Span B line has not yet been overcome, so in theory the dollar's rise could still resume. Today, the pair's dynamics will be entirely dependent on Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.

On the 5-minute TF on Friday, four trading signals were generated, but whether they were worth trading is a big question. First, the only important report of the day pointed to a decline in the pair, even as we observed its rise all day. Second, the signals formed between Ichimoku lines and levels separated by only 20–30 pips. Opening trades aiming for just 20–30 pips was, at best, impractical.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated August 25. On the weekly TF, it is clear that the non-commercial traders' net position turned "bearish" and fell significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been trimming euro exposure in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar has, for a time, acted as the "reserve currency."

We still see no fundamental factors to strengthen the US currency. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor expires, everything will return to normal — and this process may already be complete. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trend line), but the uptrend will remain relevant. After recent months of dollar strength, the pair has not come close to that trend line.

The red and blue COT indicator lines point to approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions among Non-commercials rose by 2,700, while short positions decreased by 20,000. Accordingly, the net position increased by 22,700 contracts for the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair may begin a new upward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving, but this is insufficient to trigger a new, powerful dollar rally. Kevin Warsh's comments and the annual Nonfarms supported the dollar, but we see no strong grounds for optimism about the US currency. Overcoming the Senkou Span B line will open the way up for the euro.

For September 4 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, and also the Senkou Span B (1.1641) and Kijun-sen (1.1604) lines. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to move the stop loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect you from potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Friday, the EU will publish a relatively unimportant retail sales report that is unlikely to attract the market's attention. In the US today are the week's reports — Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. These reports largely determine the Fed's September decision and market expectations, so traders' reaction today may be strong.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1585–1.1604, or lower, if the price bounces off the Senkou Span B line. A break above the 1.1657–1.1665 area would allow opening long positions targeting 1.1750–1.1760.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels — thick red lines near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku lines transferred to the hourly TF from H4. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts — the size of the net position for each trader category.

The GBP/USD currency pair remained in decline on Thursday, which, in our view, is a banal technical correction. We believe there were no reasons (especially this week) for the US currency to rise. Moreover, there were none even last Friday. Let us examine in detail what is happening in the FX market and why the dollar is strengthening.

We should start with last Friday. On that day, Kevin Warsh spoke, the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report was published, and the dollar managed to materially strengthen across the market. Obviously, the market reacted to those events, which caused the dollar's rise. However, the Federal Reserve chair did not say anything new or "hawkish" that would increase the likelihood of monetary tightening in September or later this year. Warsh repeatedly talks about the unacceptability of high inflation in the US, but if it is "unacceptable," why did the FOMC not vote to raise the key rate in July? Only three of the 12 committee members took a hawkish stance.

Thus, Warsh's words about the unacceptability of high inflation should not be given a hawkish tone. One might think Jerome Powell enjoyed high inflation... Nevertheless, inflation in the US has exceeded the norm for more than five years. Why, then, did the Fed under Powell not raise rates to the necessary levels? Because inflation is not the only consideration. Suppose the Fed decides to raise the rate after the September meeting. Borrowing will become more expensive; loans will cost more; US bond yields will continue to rise; investment will fall; economic growth will slow; and the labor market will deteriorate further. To reduce inflation, one must sacrifice the economy, investments, the labor market, and allow further growth of public debt. For what purpose? To reduce inflation that Trump himself provoked by starting a war in the Middle East?

How does Trump view inflation, and is there any point in Fed actions to offset the consequences of Trump's policies? Trump believes current inflation is acceptable and rarely talks about it. The US president is not concerned with this indicator. Why then sacrifice what is truly important? As for the Fed, the central bank can raise the rate. But what if tomorrow Trump starts a new war? What is the point of fighting inflation if presidential actions can destroy any efforts?

A few words about geopolitics: the Middle East conflict continues. Neither Iran nor the US intends to yield, so the conflict may become protracted. Perhaps in five or ten years Trump could pressure Iran, but Trump is 80 years old... He has 2.5 years left in office... He cannot become US president a third time... A new US president is unlikely to pursue such extreme policies... Americans are unlikely to make the same mistake a third time at the ballot box... Everything suggests the conflict will continue while Trump remains president and retains full power. He retains full power only until November this year. As for the dollar, traders and investors have long since priced in and worked through the war in the Middle East. We would not expect a strong dollar rally in the event of further escalation.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 53 pips. For the pound/dollar, this value is "low." On Friday, September 4, we therefore expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3474 and 1.3580. The major linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating an uptrend. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory, warning of a possible end to the correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3489

S2 – 1.3428

S3 – 1.3367

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3550

R2 – 1.3611

R3 – 1.3672

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair retains an upward tendency. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. 2026 has been positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every tale comes to an end. On the weekly TF, there remains a flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, which allows us to expect continued pound appreciation in the medium term. Long positions with targets at 1.3611 and 1.3672 can be considered when price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows short trades with targets at 1.3474 and 1.3428.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings: 20, 0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which to trade.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel the pair will trade within over the next day, based on current volatility.
• The CCI indicator entering oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) signals a forthcoming trend reversal.

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to recover slightly on Thursday after a two-week decline, which itself was a correction against a month-long rise. Thus the underlying uptrend that began in late July effectively remains intact. In our view, the euro should continue to rise in the medium term, regardless of the Federal Reserve's plans and actions, and even despite geopolitical developments. However, if things were that simple in the FX market, every trader would be a millionaire.

For this review, we decided not to focus on Nonfarm Payrolls or the unemployment rate, which would be logical, but on the prospects for Fed monetary policy. At present, most market participants are confident the Fed will tighten policy in September. We believe the Fed will once again leave the key rate unchanged. Why? The Fed makes decisions based strictly on macroeconomic data. It did so previously. Now the US central bank is headed by a person closely aligned with Donald Trump, so one inevitably has to view monetary policy prospects through the prism of the US president's wishes. We believe all traders understand why Trump appointed Warsh as Fed Chair. To be precise, nothing is known for certain, but anyone who follows Trump's actions and statements can say with confidence: the American president makes decisions that primarily benefit himself.

The US president continues to demand rate cuts because they personally benefit him. Trump's campaign slogans promised a new era of economic prosperity and benefits for every American who votes Republican. Eighteen months later, it is clear: many Americans have suffered losses because Trump became president. Trump failed to conclude any significant wars, provoked a worldwide energy crisis, started a trade war, increased the US national debt by $3 trillion, and failed to address the budget deficit and the negative trade balance. In short, none of the campaign promises were fulfilled. The promised era of financial prosperity has not arrived.

On the contrary, Americans now pay more for foreign goods, gasoline, and any goods and services whose prices include transportation. Thus, low interest rates are useful to Trump so the economy can accelerate and he can claim from the podium something like "the President promised, the President delivered!" Therefore, Warsh was appointed to influence the Monetary Committee to cut the key rate. The White House does not care about inflation, and current US labor market indicators (which directly affect economic growth) do not allow the Fed to tighten policy.

If Warsh were not connected to Trump, we would admit the Fed might fight inflation. With Warsh, we do not believe that. Most market participants think the Fed Chair will not be able to convince the FOMC, and the FOMC cannot make decisions that are openly harmful to most Americans. We remind you that virtually all of Trump's decisions have not benefited the American people. That is why the ratings of the controversial president continue to hit negative records.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of September 4 is 51 pips and is characterized as "medium." We expect the pair to move between 1.1568 and 1.1670 on Friday. The major linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating an uptrend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area, signaling a potential end to the correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1597

S2 – 1.1536

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1658

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues an upward trend on the 4-hour TF, which may be the start of a new leg of a global uptrend on higher TFs. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics first, and then the Fed's hawkish stance, provided strong support for the US currency. However, those factors no longer support the dollar now. If the price is below the moving average, shorts can be considered on corrective grounds, with targets at 1.1568 and 1.1536. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1670 and 1.1719.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings: 20, 0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which to trade.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel the pair will trade within over the next day, based on current volatility.
• The CCI indicator entering oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) signals a forthcoming trend reversal.

Several macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday. For example, the EU will publish a retail sales report, but who in the market is interested in retail sales right now? All traders' attention is focused on US inflation and labor market data because no one yet understands what further actions the US central bank will take. Today, Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released, potentially changing traders' expectations about the Federal Reserve's key rate in September.

Analysis of fundamental events:

Among Friday's fundamental events are speeches by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane. In general, it is clear what to expect from both central banks in the near term, but additional comments and hints on the subject will certainly not hurt. Recall that the baseline scenario now is another ECB policy tightening this autumn, and a possible BoE tightening if UK inflation continues to rise.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired. The United States and Iran are not conducting any negotiations at this time; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, and Yemeni Houthis continue to blockade Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump has vowed an unprecedented economic operation to destroy Iran and threatens sanctions against any countries that interact with it. However, so far no one has supported Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. What is known is the first US attacks in a month on launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by announcing a military operation against the US and its regional allies. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up again.

General conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, currency pairs may show strong movements. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1655–1.1665 area, and the pound from the 1.3456–1.3476 and 1.3587–1.3598 areas. In general, the decline of the euro and the pound may continue, since technical trends for both currency pairs have changed to downward. However, US Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate can strongly affect traders' sentiment, and medium-term trends remain upward. The dollar can still only count on corrections.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades, or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H chart of the GBP/USD pair

The GBP/USD pair also rose during Thursday even though the macro backdrop suggested a decline. Recall that this week only the US ISM services business activity index supported the dollar; all other reports did not. However, yesterday, when the ISM index was released, the US currency fell. We noted earlier that a technical correction has been unfolding in the market over the past two weeks. Such corrections occur independently of fundamental or macroeconomic background. The market begins to take profits on long positions, which is why we observe declines. This is why the macro backdrop and the pair's movements did not match this week. Regarding Federal Reserve policy, we still do not believe the key rate will be raised in September. We see no basis for that. Therefore, there is no reason for stronger dollar gains beyond a correction.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, one buy signal formed. During the Asian session, the price bounced from the 1.3456–1.3476 area and moved only upward until the end of the day. Thus, traders could open long positions in the morning and close them in profit of about 30–40 pips in the evening.

How to trade on Friday:

On the hourly TF, the GBP/USD pair continues a downward corrective trend. In our view, the pound should continue to rise in the medium term under any scenario, but it is currently in a correction. On the weekly TF, the move from the lower boundary of the lateral channel toward the upper boundary continues, and this move may not be complete. Last Friday improved the mood for the US dollar, but that support is unlikely to last long.

On Friday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3456–1.3476 if the price bounces from the 1.3587–1.3598 area. Long positions can be maintained with targets at 1.3587–1.3598 after a bounce from the 1.3456–1.3476 area.

On the 5-minute TF, you can trade the levels 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741. No major events are scheduled in the UK on Friday, but they are not needed. In the US, important reports will be released today that the market has been awaiting since Monday — Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. High volatility is expected in the afternoon.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades, or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H chart of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD currency pair rebounded from 1.1584 on Thursday after a two-week correction and is now attempting to resume its upward trend. If you analyze all the macroeconomic releases this week and try to match them with the pair's moves, you will see no correlation. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, the macro backdrop should have prompted a rise in the US dollar, and on Thursday, a fall. However, in reality, we saw the exact opposite movements. For example, yesterday the US released a fairly good and important ISM services business activity index. It was the first overseas report this week to beat forecasts. Yet the US currency spent the entire day declining. Thus, the conclusion is obvious: the market is not reacting now to news that is not "mega-important." Today, unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be published, and the market should react to reports of that caliber.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, one buy signal formed. At the start of the European session, the price bounced from the 1.1584–1.1594 area, allowing traders to open long positions. Until the end of the day, the pair moved only up, so the trade could have yielded about 25–30 pips of profit.

How to trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues a correction after a month-long rise. Taking into account all events of recent months, we believe the euro should continue to rise steadily even without local support. The US dollar currently has no growth drivers except the market's almost religious faith in a Federal Reserve rate hike.

On Friday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1584–1.1594 if the price bounces from the 1.1655–1.1665 area. Longs can be opened if the pair holds above 1.1655–1.1665, with targets at 1.1745–1.1754.

On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1830–1.1837. On Friday, the EU will publish a retail sales report, and the US will release the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate. Thus, volatility today may be high.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The shorter the time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades, or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading at the moment.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

Americans like to live well. They are used to living well. Certainly not all Americans throw money around and can buy whatever they wish. Still, no one will deny that, in terms of standard of living, the American nation surpasses many on this planet. American life is, first and foremost, about money. And about credit. Prices in the US are high, so any increase in the cost of goods hits the middle and lower classes. That was the preamble; now the article begins.

The US Energy Information Administration reported that diesel inventories have fallen to the lowest level on record. Diesel prices have risen to their highest level since 2022 and may soon set an all-time record. The average gasoline price in the US reached $5.80 per gallon, and many experts predict further increases. Remember the panic a month or two ago in the US about fuel prices rising to $4–4.5 per gallon? Imagine the mood now among American businesses and consumers.

Experts note that fuel prices continue to rise for two reasons. First, the ongoing Middle East conflict, which blocks the Strait of Hormuz and access to Middle Eastern oil for world markets. Second, the White House's policy of ramping up energy exports. Accordingly, the global supply of petroleum products is decreasing, and US inventories are falling with it. Thus, the US face a double shortage of oil and fuel. That is why prices are rising.

Now the main question — whom to blame for this? If I approached grandmothers on a bench near the nearest house, they would probably be able to give the right answer as well. Bitcoin is out of favor right now. Everyone is talking about Trump's war with Iran. Possibly the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv also negatively affected the global oil and fuel market, since Ukrainian drones and missiles damaged many refineries in Russia. Moscow imposed a ban on fuel exports and even began importing gasoline itself. Therefore, the global energy situation is only deteriorating. It is not surprising that fuel prices are rising.

However, for us America and its problems matter, because they are reflected in the dollar's exchange rate. In my opinion, the Republican Party's chances of winning Congress were low even three months ago. Now, with gasoline costing almost $6 per gallon, they can be considered zero. At best, the Republicans will retain control of the Senate...

Wave picture for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within a local upward segment of the trend as part of the first wave of a new global uptrend. It should be acknowledged that the trend segment beginning in January this year could take the form A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, prices will continue to decline with targets located below the low of wave C — 1.1325. However, I consider that scenario an alternative. I believe that a new upward trend segment began in June and will return the euro to the 1.20 area.

Wave picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture of GBP/USD has become fairly clear but may be complicated. On the charts, we see a clear, complete corrective A-B-C structure. Therefore, I expect the construction of an upward set of waves. However, the current wave labeling for EUR/USD raises doubts. The euro's labeling could take a five-wave downward form, and then GBP/USD could also fall to the 1.31 area. In that case, the pound's wave labeling would also take a somewhat different form and structure. For now, this is a reserve scenario.

Main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no and can never be one-hundred-percent confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

August ISM Services was indeed fairly strong. And if not for significant accompanying flaws (which we will discuss below), the release would have favored the greenback. However, as we have repeatedly seen, the devil is in the details. ISM Services, unfortunately, was no exception.

The headline — the services business activity index — rose in August to 55.4 points from 54.1 in July. Most analysts had forecast a more modest rise to 54.3. The indicator has been in expansion territory for 26 consecutive months. The business activity subindex jumped from 59.1 to 61.7 points, while the new orders subindex rose to 60.9 (from 57.2). New orders have now been growing for 15 consecutive months, reaching the highest level since February 2023.

All this indicates that domestic demand in the services sector remains fairly resilient and that the US economy as a whole continues to expand.

But there is another side of the coin. The weakest component of the report was the employment section. The Employment Index subcomponent remained below the key 50-point mark for a second month, coming in at 47.8 in August (47.4 in July). The indicator remains below its 12-month average (48.8). In other words, the services sector continues to cut employment despite a noticeable improvement in business activity and new orders.

The US labor market looks weak even where economic activity remains relatively high.

In this context, ISM Services should be compared with earlier released macro data. For example, the employment component of the manufacturing ISM also fell — from 52.8 to 51.2 points. At the same time, new orders slipped three points (to 53.7), and backlogs fell to 51.8.

The JOLTS report also offered no optimism: vacancies in July were virtually unchanged at 7.27 million, while hires remained at 5.1 million. That is, the labor market is operating in a "low hires — low layoffs" mode. Companies are not rushing to fire employees, but they are less actively expanding payrolls. The ADP only exacerbated this picture: according to the August report, the US private sector added only 38,000 jobs last month (vs. a weak forecast of 47,000). This is the worst result since January.

Thus, three different sources — ISM, JOLTS and ADP — basically conveyed the same message. This is not yet a labor-market collapse, but the dynamics have clearly lost previous momentum. Under these conditions, this factor becomes especially important, since the Federal Reserve now has to balance inflation risks with growing signs of cooling in employment.

In other words, the August ISM Services cannot be called unequivocally "hawkish." Yes, the services economy is indeed accelerating. But growth in business activity is not translating into a corresponding rise in employment. The report, therefore, simultaneously signals strong demand and a weak labor market. That is why sellers of EUR/USD could not interpret Thursday's release in their favor.

Especially since the dollar came under additional pressure following a speech by Fed governor Christopher Waller. Unlike the hawkish rhetoric of Kevin Warsh in Jackson Hole, Waller took a softer stance. He said that if inflation in August continues to slow, he is ready to support a pause at the September meeting. That rhetoric acted like a "cold shower." Recall that at Jackson Hole, the Fed chair stated that absent convincing progress on inflation, the central bank might need to tighten further. After those remarks, the market sharply increased the probability of a September rate hike. On Thursday, one of the Fed's most influential officials effectively returned the alternative scenario — a pause — to the agenda.

Of course, much will depend on the August nonfarm payrolls to be published Friday. If the official US labor report disappoints, Waller's verbal messages will "play in new colors," and the greenback will face additional pressure. Judging by preliminary signals (weak ADP, sluggish hiring in JOLTS and falling employment in ISM Services), that outcome looks quite possible.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is currently testing resistance at 1.1630, which corresponds to the Tenkan-sen line on the D1 timeframe. If this level is breached, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. In addition, the price would sit between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, also signaling a preference for long positions. The nearest target to the north is at 1.1660 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on H4). The main target is 1.1710 (the upper Bollinger Band on the D1 timeframe), although achieving it will depend on the "color" of the August NFP.

The EUR/USD pair declined for six days, but the bears' advance may now be over. Overall, it can be said with confidence that the bears truly attacked only last Friday, when FOMC President Kevin Warsh spoke first, followed by a revision of the annual Nonfarm Payrolls data. Neither of these events was unequivocally bearish, although the dollar's appreciation can be explained if one looks hard enough for a reason. As I wrote earlier, the Nonfarm Payrolls report could have been much worse than it ultimately turned out to be, while Warsh's speech contained some hawkish undertones. However, if we call things by their proper names and do not try to see white in black, I see no reason for the dollar to rise even on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a negative reading, while Kevin Warsh merely spoke about high inflation but did not promise to raise interest rates or take any specific measures directly in September. The U.S. dollar rose to the base of imbalance 21, and the pair's decline has stopped there for now. From here, everything will depend mainly on the U.S. labor-market and unemployment data due on Friday. And I do not expect anything positive from these reports.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop, in my view, continues to fully support the bulls. First, any chart clearly shows that the euro began its advance from relatively low levels, compared with its average price over the past year. This means that it still has room to rise. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what statements Warsh makes. Third, U.S. economic data have recently brought nothing but disappointment. Fourth, geopolitics no longer supports the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB may implement another monetary policy tightening this autumn. Sixth, the U.S. Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, reducing demand for the dollar. Seventh, a new trade war between the United States and Canada, and between the United States and China, could begin in the near future. Eighth, the U.S. labor market is contracting, which could put an end to Warsh's hawkish initiatives. Thus, I currently see not a single reason for a bearish advance.

The latest U.S. labor-market data showed weak readings, inflation is slowing, and GDP growth is losing momentum. These three factors make me doubt that the FOMC will raise rates not only in September but also by the end of the year. In my view, the bears' only opportunity at present lies in a new escalation in the Middle East.

The current technical picture points to the bullish momentum remaining intact. Price has completely filled the latest bullish imbalance 21 and has even touched the previous bullish imbalance 20. The combined reaction to these two patterns could bring the bulls back into the market and resume the upward move. The bears will gain technical grounds for an advance only if both patterns are invalidated. The euro will also have to save the pound, which does not have such a strong support zone.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday had little impact on traders' sentiment, despite the release today of the important U.S. ISM Services PMI. However, the dollar began declining long before the report was published. Given that the unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls will be released tomorrow, I believe traders have begun preparing for these reports. And they do not expect anything good.

There are still a huge number of reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I see no significant factors supporting the U.S. currency, despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitics, which supported demand for the U.S. currency throughout much of the first half of 2026, is no longer doing so. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, but there have been no new hostilities from either Iran or the United States.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Change in retail sales (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in average hourly earnings (12:30 UTC).

On September 4, the economic calendar contains four releases, among which I cannot fail to highlight Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate—the two most important indicators. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Friday could be strong in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that paused for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. From a long-term perspective, I would say that the pair is trading in a range. However, the range does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Therefore, the bulls may well resume their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support zone in the form of imbalance 20, where a new bullish signal may form. We have already seen a precise rebound from imbalance 21. I consider 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the targets for a new advance in the euro.

The wave count on the four-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. There is still no question of invalidating the upward trend segment (lower chart) that began in January of last year. On the contrary, we have seen a complete A-B-C corrective structure, which has most likely been completed. We never saw a convincing wave 5 within wave C. This wave took a truncated form, which also occurs from time to time. Let me remind you that classical wave structures are generally found only in textbooks. In real-life trading, traders and analysts should be more flexible in their analysis.

Unfortunately, the wave count may become more complex again at present. Wave C may take a three-wave form, the wave that follows it will be identified as wave D, and the entire trend segment beginning on January 27 will take a five-wave corrective form A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, wave D will take a three-wave form, and on August 21, EUR/USD entered the phase of forming wave E, whose low should be below the low of wave C at 1.1325. At the same time, however, this scenario is an alternative. Based on the fundamental backdrop, I am more inclined to expect the formation of a global upward wave.

The EUR/USD pair rose by 40 basis points on Thursday, raising a new series of questions. Since the beginning of the week, at least five important and notable reports have been released in the United States and the European Union, but they triggered a completely different market reaction than might have been expected. European consumer price inflation rose to 3.3%, increasing the chances of an ECB monetary policy tightening and should have supported the euro. The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6, which should have supported the euro. The U.S. JOLTS report on job openings came in below market expectations, which should have supported the euro. The ADP report on changes in private-sector employment came in below forecasts, which should have supported the euro. During the first three days of the week, virtually every report should have supported the euro. However, demand for the U.S. dollar increased on all three days. Not significantly, but it did increase.

Today, the United States released its services PMI, which came in above market expectations. And it caused the dollar to decline. More precisely, demand for the U.S. currency declined for most of the day, while the ISM index had no impact. Based on everything said above, what conclusion can be drawn? The market is not interested in secondary economic data and is fully focused on tomorrow's payrolls and unemployment figures, as well as Fed policy, expectations for which are changing practically every day. At present, the market once again does not believe in monetary policy tightening, so demand for the U.S. currency may continue to decline.

Overall Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within a local upward trend segment as part of the first wave of a new global upward trend. It should be acknowledged that the trend segment beginning in January of this year may take the form of A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, the decline in prices will continue toward targets below the low of wave C at 1.1325. However, I consider this an alternative scenario. I believe that the formation of a new upward trend segment began in June, which will bring the euro back toward the 20 level.

On the higher timeframe, an upward trend segment can be seen, followed by the formation of an A-B-C corrective structure. This structure may take a five-wave form, but at present I consider it complete. If so, a new impulsive upward trend segment has begun to form.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a market move. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The GBP/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum, but the bullish advance is not yet over. In my view, saving the pound is in the hands of the euro. The euro is still maintaining a bullish bias at present and has not invalidated the last two bullish imbalances. These imbalances could save both European currencies. As I said earlier, I see no reason for the bears to advance. For example, it is extremely difficult to explain the decline in the euro and the pound this week. All of the U.S. economic reports released this week have, to varying degrees, created obstacles for the dollar. The geopolitical escalation in the Middle East was classified as "another escalation" by the end of the week. We have seen a huge number of such escalations over the past few months. If traders rushed to buy dollars every time this happened, the dollar would already have reached parity with the euro and the pound. Hawkish expectations strengthened last Friday, but traders continue to focus solely on Kevin Warsh's statements. Looking at the economic data, the Fed should arguably ease monetary policy rather than tighten it. Thus, I consider a resumption of the euro and pound's advance to be the most logical scenario.

Over the past month, the dollar has suffered numerous setbacks, including the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks, weak monthly Nonfarm Payrolls reports, a weak annual Nonfarm Payrolls report, a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index, slower GDP growth, and a decline in market expectations for Fed monetary policy tightening. However, at the most critical moment, the bulls retreated despite having every card in their hands. All that remains is to hope for the euro and for the temporary nature of such actions by the bulls.

Do the bears have any prospects at present? In my view, very few. As we have already established, the fundamental backdrop does not support the U.S. dollar. However, it should not be forgotten that not everything in the market depends solely on the fundamental backdrop. From a long-term perspective, the market has been range-bound for about a year. We have seen three waves to the upside, and everything suggests that the bulls should continue their advance. However, over the past year, we have actually been seeing an alternation of three-wave structures and similar patterns. The liquidity sweep of the May 1 swing could serve as a basis for a new bearish leg, which would be completely inconsistent with the fundamental backdrop.

Geopolitics is no longer having a favorable impact on the dollar. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed once again and are no longer taking place. From time to time, Iran and the United States exchange strikes, threats, and ultimatums, which has had no effect whatsoever in terms of resolving the conflict and ending the war. No one can currently predict how much longer the conflict will continue. And the dollar cannot expect market support every time the two sides exchange strikes, which are occurring with notable regularity.

Technical analysis shows that the picture changed from bullish to bearish in just a few days, based on two highly ambiguous events. The euro may stop the pound's decline, but at present it is the bears who have two imbalances from which positions can be opened. The latest imbalance 27, which was initially bullish but is now an inverted bearish imbalance, has already elicited a market reaction. However, the pound's decline could end at any moment if the euro fails to break through its imbalances. Within the euro-pound pair, the euro holds the stronger position.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday did not give the bears reason to expect another decline, while since the beginning of the week, traders have already ignored a large amount of weak U.S. economic data. Ahead of Friday, the dollar is declining, which best reflects market expectations for payrolls and unemployment.

The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I can expect nothing other than a decline in the U.S. dollar. However, this decline appears to be postponed once again for some time. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my long-term expectations. Geopolitics prompted the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The prospects for FOMC monetary policy tightening remain ambiguous, while the market itself is constantly changing its expectations. Thus, in my view, any appreciation of the dollar is temporary and random in nature. I see no reason for a large-scale bearish advance.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in average hourly earnings (12:30 UTC).

On September 4, the economic calendar contains three releases, each of which can be considered important. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment will be felt in the second half of the day on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings and the formation of a series of buy signals, the bulls may still resume their advance. Unfortunately, the bears have controlled the initiative over the past week, and all recent bullish patterns have been invalidated. The bears currently have technical grounds to push the pair lower. Only the euro may be able to save the pound. The liquidity sweep of the May 1 swing triggered the decline, and a sell signal formed inside inverted imbalance 27. It is difficult to say how long the pound will continue to fall. Two bullish imbalances on EUR/USD could potentially stop the decline. On Friday, the United States will release important labor-market and unemployment reports.

On Friday, September 4, the economic calendar contains at least two major releases. These are, of course, the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate. Needless to say, these reports will determine not only the dollar's performance on Friday but also the outlook for Fed monetary policy, which is currently the subject of much discussion. In my view, the situation is straightforward. The key release is Nonfarm Payrolls, while the unemployment rate will provide an adjustment. Thus, whether the Fed will decide to raise its interest rate at least through the end of the year will depend on whether August payrolls come in above 58,000. In recent weeks, the dollar has managed to strengthen largely on the market's hawkish expectations. If these expectations disappear, bears could weaken the dollar very quickly.

I would also like to highlight several very important factors that indirectly point to a neutral FOMC decision in September. First, there is the labor market, which has already been discussed extensively. In my view, the reports released in recent months simply do not allow the FOMC to make a decision to raise rates. Second, there is inflation, which has declined over the past two months. Whether it will accelerate in August remains unknown. Without an increase in inflation, however, the Fed has no need to tighten monetary policy. Third, there is the committee's actual policy stance. At the previous meeting, only a few policymakers voted in favor of tighter policy, even though inflation was significantly higher at the time than it is now.

Fourth, New York Fed President John Williams said recently that the disinflation process in the United States is continuing, as the impact of import tariffs on the economy is declining. Energy costs are indeed high, but they are not spilling over into other categories of goods and services. Williams also said that the Fed's current interest rate is fully consistent with the prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions and allows the Fed to maintain a balance between its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Other policymakers may, of course, hold a different view, but in my opinion, the economic reality is such that the FOMC's September decision will be clear-cut and unanimous. The market has been cautiously buying dollars in recent weeks, but as early as tomorrow and throughout September, it may become disappointed with the market's commitment to a hawkish stance several times.

Economic Calendar for the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom:

• European Union – Change in retail sales (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in average hourly earnings (12:30 UTC).

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that paused for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. From a long-term perspective, I would say that the pair is trading in a range. However, the range does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Therefore, the bulls may well resume their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support zone in the form of imbalance 20, where a new bullish signal may form. We have already seen a precise rebound from imbalance 21. I consider 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the targets for a new advance in the euro.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings and the formation of a series of buy signals, the bulls may still resume their advance. Unfortunately, the bears have controlled the initiative over the past week, and all recent bullish patterns have been invalidated. The bears currently have technical grounds to push the pair lower. Only the euro may be able to save the pound. The liquidity sweep of the May 1 swing triggered the decline, and a sell signal formed inside inverted imbalance 27. It is difficult to say how long the pound will continue to fall. Two bullish imbalances on EUR/USD could potentially stop the decline. On Friday, the United States will release important labor-market and unemployment reports.

During the US trading session on September 2, crude oil managed to close the gap it had left on July 23 around $89.75. This gap has now been closed, and the market is likely showing signs of exhaustion; we could expect a technical trend reversal in the coming hours.

If crude oil continues to rise, we could expect it to encounter resistance around the 7/8 Murray level at $93.75; below this zone, a pullback could occur, which would be considered a selling opportunity.

Conversely, if crude oil falls below the Murray 6/8 level and below the 21-period simple moving average (SMA), we could expect a sharp decline, during which the price could reach the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) around $82.78 and, ultimately, find strong support around the Murray 5/8 level, at $81.25.

Since crude oil is trading near the psychological $90 level, we could look for opportunities to sell below $90.76; the first target could then be $87.71 and, ultimately, $82.78.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1623, after rebounding from the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) around 1.1565; this level provided the euro with strong upward momentum.

From a technical perspective, the euro could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1657. This point could be considered an opportunity to open short positions.

If the price falls below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is near current levels, and a technical correction occurs below 1.1623 in the coming hours, we could sell, expecting the instrument to find strong support around the Murray 6/8 level and the 21-period simple moving average (SMA), near 1.1596.

The outlook for the euro remains bullish, and a pullback toward the Murray 6/8 level via the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) could be viewed as an opportunity to re-enter long positions.

If the euro breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it could quickly reach the Murray 8/8 level around 1.1718.

The Eagle indicator shows a bullish signal, and any pullback—provided EUR/USD settles above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA)—could be considered an opportunity to continue buying.

Bitcoin is trading around $79,096 on an uptrend after breaking above the 5/8 Murray level. BTC has been trading below this zone during recent sessions under downward pressure.

Given that BTC is now trading above the 21 SMA and above the 5/8 Murray level, the outlook suggests it could continue rising until it reaches the psychological level of $80,000. If the upward momentum persists and it even reaches the 6/8 Murray level around $81,250, this level could, in turn, form a double top pattern if the instrument encounters strong resistance.

Looking at the H4 chart, Bitcoin reached $81,250 on August 26. If Bitcoin reaches this zone again in the coming hours and consolidates below it, we could view this as an opportunity to open short positions.

At current price levels above $78,125, we can continue buying Bitcoin; a pullback toward this zone or a technical rebound will be seen as a positive signal.

The Eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal, and we believe this zone will be a good point to buy above 5/8; we should also keep an eye on the 6/8 resistance zone to open short positions.

Gold is trading around $4,473 with a bullish bias, and we could expect it to continue rising over the next few hours until it reaches the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $4,535, or it could encounter strong resistance around the 6/8 Murray level at $4,531.

Since the opening of Thursday's Asian session, gold has been rising, and this could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying in the coming hours, as the instrument could reach the psychological level of $4,500. Even if it breaks above this zone, it could face strong resistance, so we must remain vigilant because a technical correction could occur.

Gold could come under downward pressure over the next few days if the price approaches the 6/8 Murray level. A move below this zone could be seen as a good opportunity to sell. If you, as a trader, are selling gold, you should be aware that the price could reach $4,531, and if it fails to break above this zone, it will be a good point to open short positions.

The outlook for the coming days is that gold will trade within a price range between the 6/8 Murray level and the 5/8 Murray level. Therefore, a move below the 61.8% Fibonacci level will be a strong bearish signal; hence, a move above the 23.6% Fibonacci level could be a signal to resume long positions.

The Eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal, so any pullback in gold over the next few days could be seen as a signal to continue buying. The target is $4,531, and if gold breaks above this level, it could reach the 8/8 Murray level around $4,687.

The yen is strengthening against major currencies, and global bond yields are falling in its wake. The explanation is simple: economies and markets are normalizing after an abnormal era of political interventions and cheap money. The Bank of Japan is tightening policy and winding down bond purchases, which is lifting domestic yields. Japan's $4.3 trillion economy and $8 trillion bond market are too large for the rest of the world to ignore.

Currency risk hedging dynamics

However, there is a second, less obvious reason for the euro's rebound — the dollar itself. Pension funds and insurers worldwide were only 41% hedged against currency risk as of June 30, the lowest level since 2015. Last year's spike in hedging, driven by Donald Trump's tariff shock, has largely faded as the greenback stabilized. That under-hedging leaves the currency vulnerable. If sentiment shifts, the sell?off could be sharper than markets expect.

The old playbook — holding the US dollar as a safe haven while saving on hedging costs — is cracking from both sides. The greenback has weakened over the quarter and continues to lose ground across most G10 currencies, and investors are once again talking about a "debasement trade." The Treasury's plans to step up long-term purchases along with intervention in USD/JPY have increased doubts about US authorities' willingness to defend the currency at all costs.

Dynamics of currency risk hedge costs

Adding to the uncertainty is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's stance. Markets still do not know whether he will press ahead with interest rate hikes while President Trump publicly pushes for cheaper money.

Not everyone, however, believes a full dollar reversal is under way. Credit Agricole remains bearish on EUR/USD, viewing recent strength as collateral damage from geopolitical shocks, from the US–China trade tensions to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, plus election risks in Germany and France. The bank targets 1.13 by year-end before a recovery to 1.17 next year.

For now, the euro's counterattack rests more on the yen's support and under-hedged portfolios than on conviction of a sustained dollar turnaround. Watch Tokyo: the next move by the Bank of Japan could determine the path of global yields faster than any Fed decision.

Will the euro hold this bounce, or is it only a breather before another wave of selling?

Technically, the daily chart shows that a retreat from 1.1635, or a drop below 1.1615, would be a trigger to sell.

The consensus is split on whether the Fed will hike interest rates in September or hold them steady. On one side, rate-hike advocates point to stubbornly high inflation — above target for more than 60 weeks — and rising Treasury yields as evidence the Fed (and Chair Warsh personally) will have to act. They argue that higher yields fully reflect current conditions the Fed must respect.

On the other side, there are growing arguments for a pause. Weak labor market signals from recent data suggest the Fed may prefer to wait. If upcoming inflation reports, especially the consumer figures, are little changed from July, the case for inaction will strengthen.

How might markets react? If US nonfarm payrolls print weaker than the roughly 55,000 job gain currently forecast and inflation remains stable, the Fed is likely to favor a continued pause. That scenario would likely lift equities, put downward pressure on the dollar, and support gold, other precious metals, and crypto assets. Treasury yields would likely fall as well.

Federal funds futures already reflect this tug-of-war. After a weak ADP report, the probability of a September 16 rate hike has eased from about 68% to 60.2%. Those odds could fall further if headline jobs data disappoints.

Daily outlook:

EUR/USD

The pair is trading above 1.1600 ahead of the US jobs release. If risk skews dovish for the Fed, EUR/USD may find support and climb toward 1.1656 and then 1.1700. A potential buy level: 1.1612. Suggested stop-loss: 1.1575.

EUR/JPY

The pair is under pressure amid expectations that the Bank of Japan could deliver a sharp rate move — possibly +50 bp or even +75 bp. In that environment, EUR/JPY may slide toward 180.65. A potential sell level: 181.65. Suggested stop-loss: 183.53.

The escalation between the United States and Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a "Schrodinger's strait." Maritime traffic has collapsed, pushing Brent crude above $95/barrel, yet the White House is broadcasting a sharply different narrative. US President Donald Trump insists that the waterway is under full control and that shipments remain at record levels. This information war has left markets deeply skeptical and unsure which version reflects reality.

Despite the geopolitical shock and higher energy prices, the US economy is showing surprising resilience. The Fed does not yet see an urgent need to raise interest rates, viewing the rise in government bond yields more as a sign of fundamental strength than as an inflationary crisis. While higher borrowing costs and fuel prices have hit auto and housing demand, industrial activity and data-center infrastructure investment are offsetting some of the drag. Follow the link for more details.

Dollar weakens on weak data and hidden split at Fed

The dollar eased noticeably yesterday, pressured by three factors: a disappointing ADP report, currency intervention by the Bank of Japan, and, most importantly, dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams. He said US inflation continues to slow and that the tariff effect is fading. He argued the current policy rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range is already at an adequate restrictive level and that the Fed does not need to rush.

Williams's remarks highlighted a deep ideological split within the Federal Reserve. His stance directly contradicts recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who believes financial conditions are not restrictive and that the fight against inflation is far from over. That fundamental disagreement leaves markets in limbo, depriving the dollar of clear backing and forcing investors to speculate which view will prevail. Follow the link for more details.

Tug-of-war at Fed: key catalysts for USD and markets in September

Markets are frozen in anticipation of the Fed's September rate decision, and forecasts are almost evenly split. On one side, persistently high inflation and rising Treasury yields push the central bank toward tightening. On the other, troubling labor market signals and easing consumer inflation give the Fed a solid reason to pause. This uncertainty creates a tug?of?war dynamic in which each new economic data point can tip the scales one way or the other.

The key trigger will be the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report. If job gains come in weaker than expected and prices show no surprises, the probability of a September rate hike, which has already fallen from 68% to 60.2% after weak ADP data, will fall further. In that scenario, markets would respond decisively: equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies would climb, while the dollar and US government yields would come under significant pressure. Follow the link for more details.

End of safe-haven era: forces behind USD weakness and EUR/USD gains

The EUR/USD pair has finally halted its long slide and moved to the offensive, with the Japanese yen emerging as an unexpected ally for euro bulls. The Bank of Japan has started to raise interest rates and trim its government bond purchases. Given the sheer size of Japan's financial markets, that move sparked a drop in global bond yields and a stronger yen — effects that have supported the euro via knock-on reactions.

A second, equally important reason for the reversal is the dollar's structural vulnerability. Large global investors are currently hedging currency exposure at the lowest levels since 2015, out of habit treating the dollar as a reliable safe haven. That strategy is beginning to crack: amid growing doubts about US authorities' willingness to defend the currency, the market is increasingly pricing for deliberate dollar debasement. If investor sentiment shifts sharply, the dollar could face a rapid sell-off. Follow the link for more details.

The test of the 157.83 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero level, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed a good downward move.

In the second half of the day, the market will be watching the U.S. services business activity index, the composite PMI, weekly jobless claims, and the foreign trade balance, as well as speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller, Beth Hammack, and Austan Goolsbee. Jobless claims have gained particular importance following the weak labor market reports released earlier this week. Differences of opinion within the Federal Reserve could add further uncertainty to the market, as the positions of hawkish policymakers and those favoring a cautious approach differ significantly. All of this will affect the dollar through expectations for interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields.

For the yen, dollar dynamics remain important, but the actions of the Bank of Japan itself have moved to the forefront. The Bank continues to intervene, and the yen has continued to strengthen against this backdrop. Coordinated steps with the United States have given the intervention additional weight, and USD/JPY continued to decline during today's European session. Weak U.S. data could further strengthen this move, while strong U.S. statistics could slow it down, but reversing the market's current direction will be difficult as interventions continue.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 156.65 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 157.35 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.35, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.18 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.65 and 157.35 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 156.18 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.50, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.65 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.18 and 155.50 can be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3497 price occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero level, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 10 points.

The August UK business activity report confirmed the continuation of the recovery, driven by the services sector. The sector accelerated to 52.5, its highest level in four months, while the composite index also rose to 52.5. At the same time, input-cost inflation turned upward after reaching a low in July, while services selling prices accelerated for the first time in four months. For the Bank of England, accelerating services prices are becoming a key signal, as they complicate efforts to bring inflation under control and support those favoring a tighter policy stance, while input costs in manufacturing, by contrast, slowed to their lowest level since February. For GBP/USD, this combination provides support from strong services activity and rising price pressures, but weakness in the labor market and the regulator's cautious approach are still preventing the bulls from establishing a sustained upward move.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar will determine the pound's direction. The focus will be on the services business activity index, the composite PMI, weekly jobless claims, and the trade balance. Additional uncertainty will come from speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller, Beth Hammack, and Austan Goolsbee, whose comments could further increase uncertainty and highlight divisions within the Federal Reserve. For GBP/USD, this means that weak data and dovish signals will support the British currency, while strong statistics and hawkish comments will strengthen the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3501 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3523 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3523, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. The pound can be expected to rise today only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3485 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3501 and 1.3523 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3485 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3459, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3501 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3485 and 1.3459 can be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.