On the lower time frame (upper chart), an impulsive wave sequence is still forming, potentially belonging to wave E of the higher time frame. If this is indeed the case, the US dollar's advance is nearing its end, regardless of how much further it strengthens. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or close to completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have driven the US currency significantly higher, but the number of new reasons for further dollar appreciation is gradually diminishing.

Unrest in France Halts Buyers

The EUR/USD exchange rate fell by 15 basis points on Monday, although market conditions could still change before the end of the day. At present, the base-case scenario remains the formation of a new upward trend segment. However, it cannot be ruled out that news developments could once again invalidate the wave count. Unfortunately, situations in which news conflicts with the wave structure cannot be avoided. Ultimately, one of these opposing forces will prevail.

The day began with a decline in the euro as the market reacted to escalating unrest in France, which has increasingly been accompanied by widespread vandalism along protesters' routes, mass looting, and theft. The losses incurred by the government, which had planned to raise taxes and cut public spending in next year's budget, are estimated at hundreds of millions of euros. The planned savings now appear increasingly unlikely to materialize. In any case, the euro came under renewed pressure, although the decline was relatively limited. Unrest in France is undoubtedly negative, but similar unrest has repeatedly occurred in the United States in recent years, also driven by dissatisfaction with government actions. Therefore, this is not considered a major factor behind the euro's decline, particularly as the single currency has already been under market pressure for a month.

There were no significant economic releases today. During the current week, the UK is the only country expected to see genuinely important economic news and events. Overall, the market may begin pricing in monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England, which could allow the pound to outperform the euro this week. As for the euro, its prospects currently depend on the wave structure. If the market recognizes that the ECB could raise interest rates three times this year, the euro's recovery could proceed more smoothly.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within a global corrective trend structure labeled A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears complete and could therefore be nearing its end. The current conditions appear favorable not only for buying the euro but also for anticipating the development of a sustained upward trend segment. According to the higher time frame, the pair is expected to rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 range. The failed attempt to break above 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (lower chart, higher time frame), also suggests that the market may be preparing for a recovery.

The higher time frame shows a downward trend segment in the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has taken an impulsive five-wave form but may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

The Main Principles of the Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is insufficient confidence in the current market situation, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair declined for 25 full days, apart from a few brief pauses. During this period, the euro lost 530 points, and its prolonged weakness began more than a month ago as the market positioned itself for an FOMC rate hike. Only toward the end of last week did bulls manage to launch a noticeable counterattack. This occurred on days when the US dollar could easily have continued to strengthen. As a reminder, US consumer price inflation exceeded forecasts, core inflation also came in above market expectations, and the Producer Price Index subsequently showed a much sharper acceleration than the market had anticipated. Since all three inflation indicators are rising more strongly and rapidly than the Fed expects, the dollar could have strengthened in line with a straightforward relationship: higher inflation increases the likelihood of tighter Fed monetary policy.

However, over the past two weeks, no FOMC member has spoken in favor of monetary policy tightening in October. On Friday, Fed Governor Kevin Warsh delivered a speech but did not forecast or announce further policy tightening either. In other words, Fed policymakers have given the market no indication that higher inflation should lead to a more hawkish policy stance. In this assessment, the bears have been on the offensive for too long, and the dollar has strengthened excessively in anticipation of the Fed's planned rate hikes. Meanwhile, traders have simply ignored the prospect of, and previous, rate hikes by the ECB and the Bank of England.

Nevertheless, it is too early to conclude that the euro's decline has ended. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price could react to it by generating a sell signal. The bears have advanced too far to be easily stopped at this stage. Although the market has largely ignored the fundamental factors supporting the euro for more than a month, this does not mean that the euro will now rise continuously. First, Imbalance 24 needs to be invalidated, and the bulls need to establish their own bullish patterns.

In September, the FOMC not only raised interest rates but also signaled its willingness to continue tightening monetary policy. This was enough to sustain the bears' extensive advance. However, even after the Fed's September tightening and the possibility of another rate hike in December, it would be incorrect to conclude that the euro has received no positive news during this period.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop continues to favor the bulls. Although the Fed has adopted a more hawkish monetary policy stance, monetary policy is not the only factor determining exchange rates. The European Union also faces challenges, but the key point is that problems exist everywhere, while only the euro is declining. Both central banks are tightening monetary policy, yet only the US dollar is appreciating. Geopolitical challenges affect both the United States and the European Union, but the market continues to focus primarily on the dollar.

The current chart structure indicates that bearish momentum remains firmly in place, with no clear signs of reversal. The only relevant pattern at present is Imbalance 24, which could be tested in the near future, as a corrective rebound has already begun. The bulls' main opportunity lies in a liquidity sweep below the 1.1066 low. However, a liquidity sweep alone is insufficient to justify opening long positions.

There was no significant economic news on Monday. Public unrest continues in France and has begun to spread to other EU countries. However, this does not appear to be a sufficiently significant factor to prompt a reaction from currency traders. The corrective rebound could continue this week.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to launch another advance in 2026. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies, which caused a substantial decline in the US dollar last year, have not changed. At present, there are no major factors supporting the US currency, despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical developments, which supported demand for the US dollar during much of the first half of 2026, are no longer providing the same support.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• European Union – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

On October 20, the economic calendar contains four releases, all of medium importance. The impact of economic data on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

In this assessment, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has been interrupted by a year-long corrective phase. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears eight months ago, but the trend that has lasted for four years cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. The bulls could resume their advance before the end of the year, but their main tangible opportunity at present is the 1.1066 low established in June last year. The bears received a new sell signal within Imbalance 19. For now, existing short positions can be maintained. A new sell signal could form within Imbalance 24. Given the relatively high probability of a continued corrective rebound, partial profit-taking on short positions may be worth considering.

The GBP/USD pair began to rise after sweeping liquidity from the latest bearish swing. Over the past three days, the pound has posted a confident advance, which could invalidate Imbalance 30, as it has failed to produce a convincing price reaction. This would be the first step toward the formation of a bullish trend. In addition, the first bullish imbalance in a long time could form as early as today. It would subsequently act as a support zone and provide buy signals. Finally, there is another important factor. The reversal in favor of the pound did not occur following strong UK data or weak US data. Instead, it took place after three strong US inflation reports that could easily have supported the bears again. However, on Wednesday, the price swept liquidity from the June swing, triggering a sharp and powerful rise in the British currency. As a reminder, the chart clearly shows that almost all significant reversals over the past year have occurred after liquidity sweeps, while the pound has remained in a range for an entire year.

It is worth noting that traders expect the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy two or three times, while the Federal Reserve is expected to do so only once or, at most, twice. The dot plot also points to one rate hike, and the latest FOMC minutes confirmed that most central bank policymakers expect just one 0.25-percentage-point rate increase. Of course, the outlook for 2027 remains uncertain, but this is the weighted-average forecast at present. Consequently, the Bank of England could ultimately raise interest rates more aggressively than the Fed in the coming months, which is unlikely to support further gains in the US dollar.

Had the Fed not decided to raise interest rates in September and signaled its willingness to continue tightening monetary policy, a decline in the US dollar would have been expected a month ago. That outlook remains unchanged. The pair has reversed in favor of the pound, and now only one step remains: the formation of new bullish patterns that bulls can use to open long positions. The pound's long-term outlook remains bullish.

Do the bears have any further potential? There appears to be little. Over the past month and a half to two months, the bears seem to have accomplished the seemingly impossible by pushing the dollar to levels that are exceptionally high by current standards. It is worth remembering that the market has had reasons to buy the dollar recently, but there have also been reasons for the British currency to appreciate that traders have simply overlooked. Consequently, a reversal in the opposite direction may now begin, with a much stronger fundamental justification than the preceding decline.

There was no significant economic news on Monday, while bullish traders continued to exert modest upward pressure on the price. There are good reasons for them to maintain this pressure throughout the week, although a series of relatively important UK economic reports could influence market sentiment. The most important report, covering inflation, will be released on Wednesday.

The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, over the long term, a decline in the US dollar appears to be the only plausible scenario. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this outlook. Geopolitical developments prompted the market to refocus on the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most acute phase. The outlook for FOMC monetary policy remains uncertain, while the market continues to anticipate only further tightening, which is the main reason for the bears' confidence. However, traders still fail to account for the possibility of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England, as reflected in several recent speeches by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members. Inflation in the UK is rising, as it is around the world, leaving the Bank of England with few alternatives to raising interest rates as well.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Average Earnings Change (06:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Change in the Number of Jobless Claims (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

On October 20, the economic calendar contains five notable releases, with UK data standing out. Economic data could influence market sentiment on Tuesday, particularly during the first half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Bears have controlled the market in recent weeks, but the range remains clearly visible on the daily chart. A liquidity sweep of the swing formed on May 1 triggered a new decline within the horizontal channel, while a sell signal within Inverted Imbalance 27 allowed the decline to continue. However, liquidity was swept below the June lows, giving bulls a strong opportunity to regain control. The bearish imbalance could be fully invalidated as early as today, marking the first step toward the formation of a bullish trend. Therefore, traders are advised to wait for bullish patterns and signals that could help return the pound to its August highs.

Today, Monday, gold (XAU/USD) struggled to extend its modest intraday advance during the European session. During the US session, prices fell below Friday's low, remaining within a three-week trading range and failing to reach the psychological $4,200 level. The cautious tone of Federal Reserve officials, particularly Governor Kevin Warsh's decision to refrain from further comments on the monetary policy outlook, reduced investors' expectations of policy tightening later this month. Another factor supporting the precious metal was the recent sharp decline in US Treasury yields following their rise to multi-year highs. This decline triggered a drop in the US Dollar Index to a two-week low on Friday.

Nevertheless, gold bulls failed to capitalize on this positive development, and the precious metal came under renewed pressure.

Ahead of the Fed's October 27–28 meeting, when the central bank entered its blackout period for public communications, Kevin Warsh refrained from challenging market expectations regarding interest rates, emphasizing his reluctance to "draw premature conclusions about upcoming meetings," despite data released during the week indicating higher-than-expected inflation.

US inflation data released last week exceeded forecasts, strengthening market expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders assign a probability of more than 90% to the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate in December. In addition, concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from rising energy prices are further reinforcing expectations of additional Fed monetary policy tightening.

On Friday, crude oil prices reached new monthly highs amid escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, increasing risks to global supply.

Over the past weekend, three tankers were reported damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy stated that the strait remained under its control and that vessels could pass through only with its permission. On Sunday, fires broke out at an oil export terminal and an oil depot in St. Petersburg, Russia, following Ukrainian attacks. Kyiv deployed more than 1,000 drones, marking one of the largest aerial attacks of the entire conflict. There are also no signs of easing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran.

In addition, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that Tehran was preparing a new retaliatory plan in the event of renewed attacks by the United States or Israel. These developments sustain the geopolitical risk premium, which, in turn, supports oil prices and allows the US dollar, as a safe-haven asset, to recover after falling to a two-week low.

This factor limited gold's upward movement at the start of the new week and put pressure on prices of the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, the current price action within the established range can be characterized as a phase of bearish consolidation following the decline from levels near $4,700 recorded in August. Moreover, on the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is holding firmly below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the 100-period SMA. This indicates that the recent advance is part of a broader correction rather than a confirmed uptrend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in negative territory, while the MACD indicator remains above the zero line, indicating positive momentum, although it is weakening somewhat.

Nevertheless, a sustained move above the psychological $4,200 level is necessary to ease the current downward pressure and establish a more favorable medium-term outlook. The support zone extends toward the October low. If this support fails to hold, prices could accelerate their decline toward the psychological $4,000 level.

The technical analysis of the four-hour (H4) chart for Gold (GOLD) utilizes a set of precise technical tools to identify the overall trend and key pivot levels. Major support and resistance levels are determined using the weekly pivot indicator, which establishes the weekly pivot point at 4151.72, the first weekly resistance (R1) at 4230.55, the second (R2) at 4295.55, and the third (R3) at 4374.38, alongside the first weekly support (S1) at 4086.72. Furthermore, the analysis incorporates price channels covering two distinct timeframes: the blue channel represents the price range and trend over the preceding two weeks, while the red (pink) channel reflects the sub-trend and range of fluctuation over the past week alone.

Regarding price behavior since the start of this week's trading, Gold has opened with a sideways consolidation, showing a slight, short-term bullish bias around the 4162.68 level. The price has demonstrated notable resilience and stability above the weekly pivot point of 4151.72, attempting to build upon a previous positive rebound from a pivotal low near the first weekly support level of 4086.72. Current price action shows repeated attempts to establish a support base above the weekly pivot level, aiming for a push toward the upper boundary of the sub-channel and a test of nearby resistance zones.

Based on these technical factors, two key scenarios for the upcoming movement are anticipated:

Primary Scenario (Bullish): Assumes the price remains stable above the weekly pivot level of 4151.72. This would drive gold toward an initial target of 4195.80, with the potential for further gains toward the first weekly resistance level at 4230.55.

Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Triggered if the price breaks below the weekly pivot level of 4151.72 and closes beneath it with a strong 4-hour candle. This would open the door for a pullback toward the intraday support zone at 4127.80 and the first weekly support level at 4086.72.

Tips for Successful Trading: It is advisable to wait for confirmation signals before entering a position. Strictly adhere to risk management protocols by limiting the risk per trade to no more than 2% of your capital. For long positions, place a stop-loss order below the weekly pivot level to protect your account against sudden market volatility.

The daily chart shows the price undergoing a corrective downward wave following a rebound from the second monthly resistance level at 4659.09. The price is currently trading at 4161.40 within a minor, pink-colored descending channel, which is contained inside a broader, blue-colored primary channel.

Continued trading below the monthly pivot point—set at 4259.17—confirms that selling pressure remains dominant in the medium term. The price is currently in a phase of sideways fluctuation and consolidation above local lows, near the first monthly support level at 4008.04.

Bullish Scenario: This remains contingent upon a breakout above the monthly pivot at 4259.17 and an exit from the descending channel, targeting 4407.96.

Bearish Scenario: If the current resistance holds, the potential for renewed negative pressure remains, which could lead to a test of the key support level at 4008.04.

At the start of the new trading week, GBP/USD is rebounding from the key 1.3300 level, temporarily pausing the corrective move that began on Friday following the establishment of a new October high, with the previous comparable price level recorded on September 23. However, the upward momentum failed to develop further. The pair has now fallen below 1.3340, showing little change on the day. This reflects reduced selling pressure on the US dollar.

Last Friday, the US dollar declined significantly, reaching a new October low and ending a four-week winning streak. The move was triggered by a sharp drop in US Treasury yields, which had previously reached multi-year highs. Another factor weighing on the dollar was the lack of clear signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding the next steps in monetary policy. This reduced expectations of monetary tightening at the end of the current month. As a result, the impact of inflation data that came in significantly above forecasts was offset, forcing dollar bulls to adopt a defensive stance.

Despite this, market participants continue to assign a probability of more than 90% to a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. This assessment is largely driven by inflation risks associated with rising energy prices. On Friday, crude oil prices reached new monthly highs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On Sunday, reports emerged from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that an oil tanker had caught fire and subsequently exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking a sea mine.

Furthermore, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Tehran was preparing new measures in response to possible aggression by the United States or Israel. This continues to sustain the geopolitical risk premium, providing some support for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and, consequently, limiting GBP/USD's upward potential. At the same time, growing expectations of a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate hike in November should support the British pound and limit downward pressure on the currency.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD continues to trade below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), currently located at 1.3390. This maintains the prevailing bearish bias despite the recent short-term upward momentum. The nearest resistance zone is formed by the 1.3340 level and the 100-day SMA, suggesting that further gains will be difficult to sustain while spot prices remain constrained by this strong resistance area.

On the other hand, initial support is located at the 1.3265 retracement level, which coincides with the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA). More significant support levels are found at 1.3200 and 1.3180, the October low. The oscillators are giving mixed signals, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, giving the bulls an opportunity to gain momentum.

Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs lost $549m last week, meaning investors continue to withdraw funds from the two largest crypto products. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin funds saw outflows of about $229m, and Ether funds lost $320m. This is Bitcoin's second week of outflows and Ether's third.

The pace of outflows has eased a little. A week earlier the two fund types together lost $1.22bn, so the rate of withdrawal has more than halved. But a slowdown in outflows is not the same as demand returning: there are still no net purchases in the market, and that is why price lacks support. Notably, Ether is suffering more. Over seven days it fell about 5% to $2,433, while Bitcoin lost 1.3% and traded around $82,783. Looking at the month, roughly $955m left spot Ether ETFs since the start of October — more than in any other month this year.

I believe Ether will remain the weak link until ETF inflows at least return to a neutral balance: it is the asset that reacts most to institutional withdrawals. I also lean toward Bitcoin trading within the recent corridor in the coming days with attempts to break below $80,000, while Ether, without buyers, will likely retest support around $2,300. A reversal in flows will be the first honest signal that the market is ready to move off the defensive.

Technical analysis for Bitcoin. Price around $82,783 is trapped between $82,500 and $82,900, and the plan is built around two mirror directions with a full set of breakout and bounce scenarios. For long positions, I consider a break above $82,900 with a target of $83,500, where I would take profit and may flip into a short on the retracement, provided the price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome indicator is above zero. If a drop below $82,500 fails and the price returns, buy the bounce, aiming first at $82,900 and then $83,500.

The sell scenario is symmetric. A confirmed break below $82,500 opens a short toward $81,700, but only when the moving average is above the price and Awesome is below zero. If a break above $82,900 fails and the price returns below that level, short the rejection targeting $82,500 and then $81,700.

Technical analysis for Ether. The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with supports at $2,419 and $2,389 and resistances at $2,437 and $2,465. Buy on a break above $2,437, targeting $2,465, or buy the bounce from $2,419 after a false drop to target $2,437 and then $2,465. For sells, a confirmed break below $2,419 targets $2,389, or short the rejection from $2,437 after a failed upside breakout, targeting $2,419 and then $2,389. Both indicators serve as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone entry triggers, so trades are taken only after price confirms the designated levels.

The test of the 158.00 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for selling the US dollar. However, the pair never declined, resulting in the loss being realized.

Given that the only US data release scheduled for the second half of the day is the NAHB Housing Market Index for October, the balance of forces is unlikely to change significantly. The yen is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, but this status does not always hold during the current conflict. When markets fear an escalation and geopolitical risks increase, demand for the US dollar often proves stronger, particularly amid high US Treasury yields. It is no coincidence that in early October, the yield on 10-year US Treasury securities reached approximately 5.35%, its highest level since 2002. The yield differential and safe-haven demand for the dollar are jointly pushing USD/JPY higher. If tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz persist, the yen is likely to weaken against the dollar. An easing of tensions and a pullback in oil prices could help the yen recover some of its losses, but for now, the geopolitical backdrop is more favorable to the US currency.

As noted above, the only US data release scheduled for today is the NAHB Housing Market Index for October. It reflects homebuilders' confidence in the new housing market and is sensitive to mortgage rates, which are influenced by bond yields. This report rarely triggers significant moves in USD/JPY, so oil prices and the geopolitical backdrop will remain the main factors influencing the yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point near 158.28 is reached (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 158.49 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 158.49, the long position will be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points downward from that level. The pair could rise today, although the upward potential appears rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 158.12 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 158.28 and 158.49.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 158.12 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 157.85, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 158.28 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 158.12 and 157.85.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3320 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 15 points.

In the absence of major economic data releases, oil prices and geopolitics are once again taking center stage for GBP/USD. The market views high oil prices as an inflationary factor and, consequently, as an argument in favor of a restrictive Federal Reserve policy. In the September US inflation report, a 9.1% monthly increase in gasoline prices accounted for more than half of the overall rise in the Consumer Price Index, which reached 3.7% year over year. The link between oil prices, inflation, and expectations for US interest rates is therefore quite tangible.

The pound is affected in two ways. On the one hand, it loses ground against the US dollar when the greenback strengthens as a safe-haven asset. On the other hand, the UK economy itself is sensitive to fuel prices. In early October, S&P Global noted that sharply rising fuel prices amid the conflict in the Middle East continued to accelerate cost inflation in the UK services sector, while the prices charged by companies increased at their fastest pace since May. As long as news from the region remains unsettling, GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure from the US dollar.

The US economic calendar today features only the NAHB Housing Market Index for October. This survey of homebuilders helps assess new home sales conditions and expectations for the coming months. It will most likely be a secondary factor for GBP/USD, as market attention is focused on geopolitics and oil prices, while the dollar is influenced by sentiment surrounding these issues.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy the pound today when the entry point near 1.3340 is reached (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3368 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3368, the long position will be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points downward from that level. The pound may rise today if US economic data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3320 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3340 and 1.3368.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the pound today after the 1.3320 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3293, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if the geopolitical situation deteriorates. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3340 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3320 and 1.3293.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1221 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target level of 1.1192.

The euro declined against the US dollar during the first half of the day. Clearly, the market is focused on news from the Middle East, and in the current environment, as long as geopolitics remains the main market driver, euro buyers have few arguments in their favor. Any spike in oil prices will strengthen demand for the US dollar, while any signs of easing tensions will provide only short-term relief for the euro. As for the US economic calendar, it contains just one release: the NAHB Housing Market Index for October. It measures sentiment among homebuilders and reflects the extent to which high mortgage rates are restraining demand. No significant impact on the US dollar should be expected from this report, so EUR/USD will depend primarily on developments in the region and movements in oil prices.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1217 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1255. At 1.1255, the plan is to close the position and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may rise today if US data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1203 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1217 and 1.1255.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1203 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1173, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level in the opposite direction. Selling pressure could return to the pair at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1217 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1203 and 1.1173.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

First, let's describe what happened on Friday. The VIX index, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped 21.5% to 19.99. In simple terms it shows how large moves in stocks traders expect over the next four weeks. When people get nervous, they buy protection against sharp moves, and the index rises. The S&P 500 fell 1.09% that day, and the VIX's one-day rise was the largest since June 5. There are several reasons. AI-related stocks plunged over the week, and credit-default protection for debt of such companies rose to record levels. Added to that was oil: on Saturday Iran reported two tankers caught fire after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and tensions also increased on the Russia–Ukraine front.

Many traders believe that despite the current market retracement higher, fear will return. Bitcoin confirms that picture. The Bitcoin volatility index BVIV from Volmex fell 1% on Friday, stayed just below 40%, and has since been almost unchanged. I think the market will calm in the coming days, and Bitcoin will remain inside the corridor above $80,000. I lean toward the view that the main risk to this scenario remains the Strait of Hormuz: fresh reports about tankers and oil could quickly bring fear back and hit all risk assets at once. If oil does not rally, Bitcoin has a chance to wait quietly for clearer signals.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Technical picture for Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a reclaim of $83,400, which would open a direct path to $86,000 and then toward $89,000; breaking $89,000 would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $80,900. A return of the trading instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,100. The most distant downside target would be around $76,900.

Technical picture for Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,508 would open a direct path to $2,600. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,679; breaking that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,417. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,339. The most distant downside target would be around $2,274.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Markets are in a period of extreme instability. US President Donald Trump's unpredictable sanctions policy triggered a drop in oil prices.

At the same time, a shortage of gas in German storage facilities has heightened Europe's energy concerns.

A correction in the tech sector is making things worse: a burst AI bubble has driven key US and Asian indices lower.

Yet the market remains paradoxical: for example, Apple's market capitalization continues to rise despite problems ramping up new models.

In the current environment, high volatility has become the main tool for experienced traders able to monetize market shocks quickly.

Trump's 'oil truce': pause in sanctions pushes commodity prices down ahead of midterms

The trading week opened with an unexpected reversal in commodity markets. On Monday, October 19, the Asian session saw oil prices slip after the White House delivered a fresh geopolitical shock to markets.

Donald Trump paused the implementation of new US sanctions and tariffs on Russia — a move that, analysts say, could clear the way for additional Russian fuel to reach global markets.

Brent futures, which were testing highs not seen since May 19 as recently as Friday, corrected by nearly 1% early in the week. West Texas Intermediate fell slightly less.

This is the administration's second conciliatory "knight's move" toward Moscow in two weeks, motivated by domestic politics: Trump is trying to bring down retail diesel prices before the November 3 midterms. The decision has provoked sharp criticism from both Democrats and Republicans.

What happened behind closed doors? On Friday, October 16, the president signed an order effectively freezing the implementation of tough measures under the Lindsey O. Graham sanctions act targeting Russia and Iran (the law itself was signed by Trump in September, and its measures were due to take effect on October 18).

The order suspends punitive tariffs, up to 500% on some Russian goods and up to 100% on key buyers of Russian oil and gas, and removes provisions that would have made the sanctions irreversible.

The move gives the president legal leeway to soften the measures further. Reuters reports the relief will remain in place until Trump or senior officials decide to resume a harder line.

The October order follows last week's high-profile deal announced by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to supply diesel. On October 9, the US Treasury issued general license No. 135, allowing the sale and import of Russian diesel (including for the domestic US market). The license runs through April 2027.

Why the easing? CNBC reports domestic fuel shortages worsened amid the war with Iran. Trump said Russia is ready to ship 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, rising to 500,000 tonnes in November and eventually to 1 million tonnes per month (Al Jazeera figures).

That said, The Washington Post tempers the enthusiasm: these volumes represent a small share of US consumption, so the global impact on domestic pump prices may be limited.

Such geopolitical swings and abrupt sanctions reversals create ideal conditions for speculators. Oil futures and commodity-sensitive FX pairs are showing heightened volatility, offering trading opportunities.

All of the trading instruments discussed here are available on the InstaForex platform. To stay on top of current trends and react to news in real time, open an InstaForex account and download the mobile app to monitor global markets from anywhere.

Collapse of trillions in illusions: Asian markets plunge after US AI bubble

The era when any AI headline was an unconditional "buy" signal appears to be ending. Monday, October 19, began for Asian investors with a severe financial hangover: local exchanges were rocked one after another amid a large tech sell-off on Wall Street.

What looked yesterday like an unassailable position for Asian chip makers turned into mass loss-taking today. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by more than 1.7%, and South Korea's Kospi plunged by 3% at the open, though it clawed back some losses by mid-morning.

Industry giants in semiconductors took the brunt of the hit. SoftBank Group shares slid by 4.43%. In South Korea, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were deep in the red. In Japan, investors dumped memory supplier Kioxia and components names such as Taiyo Yuden and Sumco.

By midday, both major Asian benchmarks were down roughly 2%. Panic was worsened by rumors in the memory market: SBS reported that some participants seriously fear Chinese producers are rapidly catching up, threatening price cuts and a market re-segmentation.

Roots of the Asian panic trace back to Wall Street. The market finally put an uncomfortable question to the AI giants: when will the massive investments in neural networks begin to pay off?

The prior US session reflected the mood: the S&P 500 slid by 1.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged by 2.15%, closing out its worst week in nearly four months.

Infrastructure names exposed to AI, CoreWeave (-10%), and Oracle (-nearly 5%) among them, fell sharply. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged by 11.4% last week, marking the longest losing streak since the 2008 crisis.

As a result, over the past week, the Nikkei lost about 5.4%, and South Korean equities fell by more than 14%. A stark reminder of market fragility came on October 13, when the Kospi tumbled by 5.46% in a single session.

Investor skepticism is reinforced by harsh macro reality. Market participants have long feared that AI revenues will not be sufficient to recoup massive up-front investments.

Rising bond yields and widening credit spreads make capital more expensive. That makes borrowing and refinancing harder, slowing the build-out of new AI infrastructure. The era of cheap money for tech startups and hyperscalers is over — the market now wants not grand promises but concrete financial results.

Part-empty storage and "Iran factor": Germany's gas risk heading into winter

The heating season has begun in Europe, but Germany is entering it with palpable concern. National gas storage levels have stalled around 60%, a critically low reading for this time of year. With disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising global prices for "blue fuel," Berlin has been forced into emergency action.

According to the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur), mid-October gas inventories stood at roughly 60.4–60.5% (about 149.5 TWh).

As Sloboden Pecat reports, the agency — having adjusted the original data posted on the AGSI transparency platform — called this level "significantly below" prior years and said that officials take the issue "very seriously." Daily injection volumes over recent weeks have been openly disappointing.

Why weren't storages filled on schedule? The answer lies in global geopolitics. High prices driven by the Iran war made it uneconomical for private traders to buy and bank summer gas. The market stepped back, leaving the state to manage the shortfall alone.

Logistics shocks made matters worse. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz hit LNG deliveries. Europeans now face fierce competition from Asian buyers for the same cargoes, which inevitably pushes prices higher.

Authorities are trying to reassure markets. The Bundesnetzagentur says supplies remain stable and judges the risk of an acute shortage as low. In the second week of October, Germany took in about 17.1 TWh of pipeline gas, and its LNG terminals — operating at only about one-third capacity (34.4%) — added roughly 1.6 TWh. The agency stresses that rigid November rules are not a guarantee of security; the entire infrastructure complex matters.

According to agency head Klaus Muller told n-tv, Germany will get through a normal winter, including January frosts. He added, however, that inventories would fall to a "very low level" by the end of the season.

Recognizing the risks, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche ordered state company SEFE to urgently buy and inject an additional 8 TWh of gas by December 15.

Professionals are less sanguine. Storage operator group INES, via t-online, warned bluntly that the emergency volume will be only a drop in the bucket if the winter proves unusually cold and prolonged.

Foldable iPhone Duo at $2,000 sold out in 30 minutes: frenzied demand or production crisis?

Apple's first foldable phone has become not only a tech sensation but also a stress test for logistics and a bonanza for resellers. The iPhone Duo, starting at $1,999, was literally swept off virtual shelves in the first minutes after preorders opened on October 16.

Just 30 minutes after pre-order launch at 8:00 a.m. New York time, buyers faced a harsh reality: delivery dates for all configurations slipped to late January 2027. By 5:30 a.m. Pacific, "in stock" disappeared for all eight variants in US Apple stores, from standard Star White and Night Sky colors to top-end 2 TB models.

In the secondary market, the scramble took stranger forms: resellers on eBay immediately drove prices up to $5,200. Carriers (AT&T and Verizon) and retailers such as Best Buy tried to hold the line, promising shorter delivery windows, but by evening, they too had to admit: inventory for the official release day, October 23, was sold out.

The same script played out even faster in China. World Journal reports that pickup slots for launch day were gone within seconds after preorders opened at 8:00 p.m. local time, and courier delivery windows were already pushed into next year within 30 minutes.

On Wall Street, the consumer mania initially sparked euphoria. Apple shares approached record highs, and the company's market cap, per El Pa-s, topped the psychological $5.03 trillion mark. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts were already suggesting that Duo sales could exceed their initial FY2027 forecast of 14 million units and $28 billion in revenue.

But behind the sellout facade lies another side. Several experts warn that empty shelves are more a symptom of supply constraints than proof of limitless demand.

Nikkei Asia reports that at launch, Apple's production lines were shipping only "a few hundred" units per day. Analyst Geoff Pu told Yahoo Finance he has cut his 2026 supply forecast to 6 million units, citing technical issues with the foldable hinges.

Counterpoint Research (via The Next Web) concurs, expecting similar numbers. As industry watchers pithily put it: "A sold-out launch reflects high consumer interest, but it does not equal total market demand or prove how many devices Apple can manufacture."

The iPhone Duo episode highlights how consumer electronics news can create sharp volatility in equity markets. While some consumers queue virtually and pay reseller premiums, others profit from the market swings and analyst revisions.

The trading instruments referenced here are available on the InstaForex platform. To turn global news and market trends into potential profit, open an InstaForex trading account today and download the mobile app to stay connected and trade from anywhere.

The EUR/USD pair has been unable to sustain its renewed intraday gains above the psychological 1.1200 level. Nevertheless, the current price remains above the October low recorded last Wednesday. Although the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the pair is to the downside.

Market participants are focused on the state of France's public finances. The government is struggling to secure approval for a budget aimed at reducing the deficit ahead of upcoming elections. This has widened the yield spread between 10-year French and German government bonds to its highest level since the European debt crisis of 2011. This situation, combined with widespread civil unrest across France, is destabilizing European financial markets and putting downward pressure on the single European currency. The renewed demand for the US dollar has also become an additional obstacle to EUR/USD gains.

Measured comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy have reduced expectations of a tightening in October. At the same time, US inflation data released last week came in above consensus forecasts, supporting the possibility of a key interest rate hike by the end of the year.

Furthermore, persistent geopolitical risks associated with escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran confrontation near the Strait of Hormuz are supporting the US dollar, which is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset. As a result, the dollar has continued the upward move that began on Friday following a brief decline to a two-week low.These trends support a negative short-term outlook for EUR/USD. However, the lack of further selling pressure means that bears should exercise some caution. Therefore, before opening positions aimed at capitalizing on the continuation of the sustained downtrend observed over the past two months, it would be prudent to wait for the daily candle to close below the horizontal support level at 1.1150.

In the short term, EUR/USD retains a bearish bias, following Friday's failed attempt to break above the horizontal resistance level of 1.1270–1.1275, which coincides with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). The nearest support is located at the October low near 1.1150. A decisive break below this level would open the way for a deeper pullback. The 20-day SMA remains a key resistance level. As long as the oscillators remain in negative territory, the bears retain the advantage.

Protests against the rising cost of living drew more than half a million people and escalated into looting and arson. Public buildings, shops, and restaurants were damaged. In a televised address on Sunday Emmanuel Macron promised a hard line against the rioters and called the events a national disgrace. He acknowledged public anxiety over fuel price rises amid the US–Iran war but said the country needed order. Clashes with police in Paris continued even during the address.

The damage is significant. According to Carrefour and the French trade federation, recovery from the riots will cost hundreds of millions of euros. About 1,500 retail outlets were affected, and roughly 20 Carrefour supermarkets were looted. Five unions have already announced a strike for November 5 demanding higher wages and more funding for public services, and they have called on pensioners and students to join. Pollster Elabe warned that such extreme violence could recur and that nothing comparable has appeared before a presidential election in recent history. That matters because the market had treated street protests as background noise rather than a budget risk.

This has come at a very inconvenient time for France. The divided National Assembly last week began debating the 2027 budget, which aims to cut the deficit by about €43 billion (roughly $48 billion). Tension over French finances has been rising since early October. Many analysts have already compared the French bond scare to the specter of a eurozone debt crisis. The economy remains weak: business activity has contracted for eight months, and inflation accelerated to 3.1% in September.

The opposition's stance makes the budget even harder. Opposition parties, as noted earlier, are unlikely to compromise with Macron's outgoing administration ahead of the 2027 elections. An early-October poll suggested Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon would reach the second round. Today both sides used the unrest to attack each other. Le Pen said the country had become hostage to violence and impotence and accused Melenchon's party of normalizing violence. Melenchon blamed police provocations while distancing himself from the rioters. With the far right and the far left trading accusations and the center focused on order, finding a majority for painful austerity measures will only get harder.

For FX markets, this chain is not new. The euro has long weakened on similar events in France. In early October EUR/USD hit a May-2025 low largely because of the French budget and government stability concerns. JPMorgan then called the euro vulnerable to further selling. I have repeatedly argued that France is becoming a headache for the euro, and if the situation worsens—especially around the budget—downward pressure on the single currency will grow even while attention is fixated on US Treasuries and the dollar. Today's move confirms that.

The problem is not limited to France. Looting and unrest occurred over the weekend in Milan, protests took place in Belgium and Portugal, and at least six European countries face elections next year. All that suggests pressure on the euro will persist in the coming weeks. I lean toward the view that until the first real budget votes, the November 5 strike, and further street actions, political risk will keep the euro on a short leash, and any rebound will be capped by news from Paris. If authorities cannot show the budget will pass and restore order, I would not rule out a fresh wave of selling in the euro and European stocks, and even a cautious ECB tone will not protect the currency.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Buyers now need to think about reclaiming 1.1235. Only that would allow targeting a test of 1.1265. From there one can reach 1.1310, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On the downside, I expect serious buying only around 1.1195. If nobody shows up there, it would be sensible to wait for a new low near 1.1155 or to open longs from 1.1115.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3340. Only that would allow targeting 1.3370, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The far target is the 1.3400 area. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of 1.3310. If they succeed, a break of the range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD to a low near 1.3275 with scope to reach 1.3340.

What drives Bitcoin's price movements? For a long time, BTC/USD moved in tandem with US stock indices, responding to changes in global risk appetite. In recent days, the token's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has begun to increase, while ETF outflows of $228.6 million in the week ending October 17 and $681 million in the preceding five-day period confirm that the relationship remains intact.

Bitcoin ETF Capital Flow Trends

Block Scholes believes that Bitcoin has regained its status as digital gold. Its price movements now mirror those of the precious metal more closely than those of any other asset. The correlation between the two has risen to its highest level since November 2020, when fiscal and monetary stimulus measures introduced in response to the pandemic swept across financial markets. The similar response of both assets to the so-called debasement trade also supports this theory. A loss of confidence in government-issued currencies and bonds increases demand for decentralized financial assets.

Gold struggled for much of the autumn amid the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric. However, the fact that strong US inflation data for September failed to increase the likelihood of a federal funds rate hike in October was welcomed by XAU/USD.

Bitcoin Drawdown Trends

Bitcoin behaved differently. Since June, its drawdown from the record highs reached in October 2025 has begun to narrow, despite a rally in US Treasury yields and the US dollar.

Formally, the trigger for BTC/USD to rebound from its local low at the beginning of the week leading up to October 23 was Brent's inability to hold above the psychologically important level of $110 per barrel. The North Sea benchmark was last seen at that level in May. As a result, investors began to question whether high inflation would persist and whether the Federal Reserve would continue its aggressive monetary tightening cycle. This provided support for both gold and its digital counterpart.

It is reasonable to assume that BTC/USD is benefiting from a weaker US dollar, as cryptocurrency is traded in the US currency. This is consistent with the view that Bitcoin is competing with artificial intelligence technologies for resources. As a result, the Nasdaq 100 sell-off proceeded at a faster pace than the decline in the token.

Technically, the daily BTC/USD chart shows an attempt by the bulls to return the price to its fair value of 83,300. A successful break above this level would signal that the corrective move is losing momentum and provide a basis for opening long positions in Bitcoin. Conversely, a rejection at this level would indicate that consolidation is likely to continue.

Let's start with Europe. The war involving Iran has been ongoing since late February, and the market has long been accustomed to assessing any news from the Persian Gulf through the lens of oil prices. Brent is trading around $105 per barrel, and oil prices have risen by approximately 65% since the beginning of the year. This is particularly unfavorable for the euro because the eurozone depends heavily on energy imports. According to the preliminary estimate, energy prices rose by 18.8% year-on-year in September, compared with 14.3% in August. Further increases in oil and gas prices immediately put pressure on business and household expenses. Add political instability in France to the equation, and there are even fewer reasons to buy the euro.

The pound is sensitive to the same factors, although they affect it differently. High fuel costs have triggered the fastest increase in prices in the UK services sector in recent months. This puts the Bank of England in a difficult position. The economy is caught between inflation and growth concerns, and an interest rate of 3.75% cannot respond to every spike in oil prices. This is precisely why the pound cannot be considered a safe haven. It faces essentially the same pressures as the euro, although their impact is somewhat milder.

Now, let's turn to the dollar. The chain of events is straightforward. High oil prices fuel inflation, and the higher inflation rises, the more convinced the market becomes that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy and that yields will remain elevated. In addition, the dollar attracts safe-haven demand when the news becomes alarming. As long as tensions remain high in the Middle East, the dollar is likely to maintain its advantage over both the euro and the pound. The euro is likely to suffer more.

Today's US economic calendar includes the NAHB Housing Market Index for October. The index is based on a survey of single-family home builders. They assess current sales conditions, expectations for the next six months, and the number of prospective buyers visiting new homes. For the market, this is an early indicator of housing sector conditions, which are highly sensitive to mortgage rates. This index rarely changes the dollar's direction, and no surprises are expected. Therefore, oil prices and news surrounding Iran will remain the main drivers for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. A sudden headline from the Strait of Hormuz would outweigh any housing data.

Momentum

For the euro, the breakout levels remain unchanged: 1.1234 on the upside and 1.1193 on the downside. The price at 1.1212 is almost exactly between them, 22 points below the upper level and 19 points above the lower one. Today's low of around 1.1187 briefly dipped below the lower level but then recovered. This is a good example of why the first test of a level should not be treated as a confirmed breakout.

For short positions, the price needs to consolidate below 1.1193 and remain there. In that case, the targets would be 1.1156 and 1.1117, and the backdrop of oil prices and developments around the Strait of Hormuz supports this scenario. I consider buying above 1.1234, with targets at 1.1268 and 1.1310, less likely because this scenario requires a positive catalyst, such as easing tensions surrounding Iran. So far, no such catalyst has emerged.

For the pound, buying above 1.3337 would target 1.3368 and 1.3397, while selling below 1.3307 would target 1.3273 and 1.3233. The price at 1.3330 is close to the upper boundary, just seven points below 1.3337. However, the morning high failed to break through this level, and the pair reversed. Therefore, the upside breakout has not yet been confirmed. The morning low of 1.3306 also reached the lower level and recovered, so no short positions have been triggered either.

The preferred approach is to wait for the price to consolidate beyond either boundary rather than enter a trade on the first test. If the news background remains tense, the downward scenario deserves closer attention, but the levels remain unchanged.

Mean Reversion

For the euro, the mean-reversion levels have been updated to 1.1227 and 1.1186. Both are very close to the breakout levels. The upper level at 1.1227 is seven points below 1.1234, while the lower level at 1.1186 is seven points below 1.1193. Beginners should be particularly careful here because a single test is not enough to distinguish a reversal from a breakout.

The downward scenario has already played out once this morning. The price fell below 1.1193, reached approximately 1.1187, failed to consolidate there, and recovered. If the same pattern appears around 1.1186, buying positions can be considered, targeting a return to the middle of the range. However, if the price falls below 1.1186 and remains there, this would constitute a breakout, and buying should be avoided. The stop-loss should be placed beyond the low of the brief downward spike. At the upper level of 1.1227, the preferred setup is for the price to test the level and quickly reverse downward, creating a potential selling opportunity.

For the pound, the mean-reversion levels remain unchanged at 1.3345 and 1.3305. The upper level is eight points above the breakout-buy level of 1.3337. If the price rises above 1.3337, reaches 1.3345, and then quickly falls back below it, selling positions can be considered. If the price consolidates above 1.3345, this would constitute a breakout, and selling should be avoided.

The lower level at 1.3305 is only two points below the breakout level of 1.3307. A difference of two points is negligible market noise, so a breakout cannot be distinguished from a reversal based on the first test alone. The morning low of 1.3306 reached this zone and then rebounded.

If the price declines below 1.3305 again, quickly recovers above 1.3307, and holds there, buying positions can be considered, with a stop-loss below the low of the brief downward spike. If the price instead consolidates below 1.3305, the mean-reversion scenario has failed, and the downward breakout becomes the primary scenario.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital reported that institutional trader demand has weakened significantly in 2026. Recall prior reports that spot demand remains low and futures positions are insufficient to form a sustained bull trend. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said Bitcoin firms have also slowed their accumulation of "digital gold." Thorn examined the balance between spot-ETF purchases and buys by Bitcoin companies and concluded there is currently no basis for further "digital gold" upside. His study asked whether institutional demand today can absorb potential supply; the answer is disappointing: if large quantities of coins hit exchanges, institutions are unlikely to absorb them.

From October 1 to 16, about $615m flowed out of US Bitcoin ETFs. Thorn believes institutional interest has not vanished but remains extremely weak in 2026. Weak demand is not a recipe for success for Bitcoin. Thorn concluded that ETFs have ceased to be the vehicle through which the market can readily absorb any additional supply. He also noted that aggregate reserves held by Bitcoin companies exceed 1m coins, but large reserves do not equal strong current demand.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin shows signs of the start of a new bull trend. This trend begins, as is often the case, with a pump that lacks specific, clear reasons. The Fed has not started cutting rates, and the Clarity Act was not adopted. In the near term on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may be in decline, since the price reacted to a bearish FVG and generated two sell signals. Also note that the current breakout beyond the daily sideways channel may be a deviation. Yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could head toward $70,800 and even preserve the downtrend that began last year. We believe short positions are most relevant in the near term. On the 4-hour timeframe, be cautious near the upper boundary of the sideways channel—a deviation may form and the decline may resume.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, the technical picture for Ether has changed completely. Now Ether is oriented toward a new uptrend. However, bulls can rely only on the weekly chart, where Ether has set a course for $4,800, the upper boundary of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily timeframe the first bearish FVG did not prompt a noticeable price reaction, but Bitcoin reacted to its own FVGs, and recall that Ether's price depends on Bitcoin's by roughly 80–90%. Bitcoin began to correct, and Ether also plunged. Thus, in the near term we expect declines (as before). Ether targets are around $2,300 and lower, down to $1,850. On the daily timeframe, Ether received a sell signal from the nearest FVG. Liquidity removal warns of a pause in the decline or a possible end to the downward correction. But the downward correction in Ether, given the current Bitcoin dominance index, will end only when the correction in "digital gold" ends.

Explanations for the illustrations:

CHOCH — change of character, break of trend structure.

Liquidity — liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.

FVG — fair value gap, an area of price inefficiency. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later prices tend to return and react to these areas in the direction of the main trend.

IFVG — inverted fair value gap. After a return to such an area, the price receives no reaction and impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.

OB — order block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to capture liquidity and form a position in the opposite direction.

No clue came. Warsh said he would not give targets or guidance on interest rates and that decisions will be made meeting by meeting. Recall that his stance is the same as before: "I do not pre-decide meetings." He said price pressure worries him, but he does not yet see anything critical, and he described the US economy and labor market as resilient.

The lack of guidance forced market participants to reassess rate bets, even though this week's data show strong price pressure in the US. Remember September CPI, which accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year. As a result, an October hike is now likely postponed, and attention has shifted to December, which markets have partly priced in. That is why Warsh's remarks did not bolster the dollar.

Support arrived later. In the afternoon, US industrial production for September jumped 0.7% versus a 0.4% forecast. That mattered because the prior dynamics had been slowing—0.3% in June, 0.2% in July, and just 0.1% in August—so September's sharp uptick stood out, and the dollar recouped some losses.

Today's Asian trading brought a new twist. The euro opened down with a 30-pip gap and slid as much as 60 pips before the market retraced most of the move. The reaction is directly linked to Europe, and more specifically to France.

There, dissatisfaction with high living costs is intensifying; students are protesting against the education system, and the unrest has reached riots. The French authorities have limited options to resolve the problem, especially by increasing public spending, which the opposition opposes. It was previously noted that German finance minister Lars Klingbeil called France's consolidation plans an important signal for markets, and Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel did not see a new financial crisis in Europe. Nevertheless, France's fairly serious domestic economic and geopolitical problems continue to weigh on the euro, and they caused the currency's drop. The pound fell with the euro, but its slide was actively bought, while the euro still struggles to rally.

Now to the economic calendar. Today it is almost empty: there is no eurozone data at all, and in the US the only second-tier release this afternoon is a housing market index that rarely drives FX pairs. When statistics are scarce, the market looks elsewhere for guidance, and traders will likely pay more attention to oil prices, statements by Trump, and the situation in France. If such unrest spreads across Europe, it could create more serious structural problems for the euro. Then it would continue to fall versus the dollar and drag down other risk assets.

EUR/USD. For shorts the interesting level is 1.1234, where a false break has formed for the third time, and I expect the decline to at least 1.1193. Here I expect stronger buyer interest, as on October 15 and during today's Asian session, so I open longs on a false break at 1.1193, aiming for a return to 1.1234. If there are no buyers at 1.1234, a break and close above that band will push the euro to 1.1268, a new major resistance. I would consider shorts from there only on a failed hold or sell rallies from 1.1310 for 25–30 pips. If there is no activity at 1.1193, I will look at longs only after a false break of 1.1156 or on a bounce from 1.1117 for 25–30 pips.

GBP/USD. Upside chances remain. Prefer longs on a correction from 1.3307 on a false break, or on a false break of 1.3283, and buy bounces from 1.3233 for 25–30 pips. Shorts suit 1.3337 on a failed hold, or the monthly high near 1.3368 on a false break, or sell a rebound from 1.3397 for 25–30 pips.

Personally, I would not rush to call the euro this week's leader: while Paris remains unsettled, it will struggle to rise, and any bounce will be sold. The pound has it easier—it has no domestic political shock, and dips are bought more readily. Until new data arrive, the streets of France, oil, and Mr. Trump's remarks will remain key for both pairs.

The report says the first partner is payment company Inyo Global, which has embedded the new capability into its platform. Through Inyo users can access payouts to more than 180 countries, while Visa's own network covers over 200 countries and territories. Scale does not yet equal availability: USDC access is currently limited to selected partners and is not active in every country, with onboarding requirements in place. Visa did not disclose transaction volumes or financial metrics.

The logic of the move is clear. Classic cross-border transfers are constrained by bank operating hours and the need to hold pre-funded balances in accounts across jurisdictions, which ties up capital. A stablecoin operates 24/7, so a payment firm can top up a balance at night or on weekends and immediately send payouts. That is why Visa speaks of rollout rather than experiments. "The next chapter for stablecoins is deployment," said Vira Platonova, head of Visa Direct, adding that pilots are turning into working solutions.

Notably, Visa is not acting alone. Very recently Mastercard also announced the launch of its Global Money Platform, built with BVNK, where fiat and stablecoins sit on the same account and convert via a single API. Both payment networks this week have moved stablecoins from tests into production infrastructure—a signal that is hard to ignore.

I think the number of Visa partners on this scheme will rise noticeably over the coming quarters, but USDC will not become a mass market settlement layer until country and access restrictions are relaxed. For the market this is more of a structural foundation for institutional stablecoin demand than a quick price driver for crypto as a whole.

Technical picture for Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a reclaim of $83,400, which would open a direct path to $86,000 and then toward $89,000; breaking $89,000 would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $80,900. A return of the trading instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,100. The most distant downside target would be around $76,900.

Technical picture for Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,508 would open a direct path to $2,600. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,679; breaking that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,417. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,339. The most distant downside target would be around $2,274.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Brief Analysis:

The current downward wave structure on the chart of the British pound's major pair dates back to late January of this year. Over the past few months, a complex correction in the form of a horizontal extended flat has been developing within this wave structure. The correction has entered its final phase, but no signals confirming its completion have appeared at the time of analysis.

Weekly Forecast:

During the coming week, the pair is expected to move within a range between the nearest opposing zones. A slight downward bias is more likely at the beginning of the week. The projected support zone may come under pressure, potentially resulting in a brief break below its lower boundary. The probability of a reversal and a renewed downward move will increase toward the end of the week.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 1.3460/1.3510

Support:

- 1.3280/1.3230

Recommendations

Buying: Long positions may become possible with reduced position sizes for intraday trading once reversal signals appear near the support zone.

Selling: Short positions may be considered during individual trading sessions with reduced position sizes.

AUD/USD

Brief Analysis:

Since the beginning of the year, the Australian dollar major pair has continued to trade predominantly sideways. The current unfinished downward segment dates back to September 9. During the final ten days, a flat correction developed within this segment, which remained incomplete at the time of analysis. The price is currently near the lower boundary of an intermediate resistance zone.

Weekly Forecast:

Over the next couple of days, the pair is expected to trade sideways, creating conditions for a potential change in direction. Pressure on the upper boundary of the resistance zone is possible. A reversal may occur closer to the end of the week. A move below the projected support zone is unlikely during the coming week.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 0.6980/0.7030

Support:

- 0.6830/0.6780

Recommendations

Selling: Short positions may become appropriate once confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.

Buying: Long positions have limited potential and carry a high level of risk.

USD/CHF

Brief Analysis:

The current wave structure on the USD/CHF chart is directed upward. It began on April 11 and has developed predominantly sideways. On the higher daily time frame, this segment represents a reversal of the preceding trend. Within the final part of wave (C), the price is forming a retracement.

Weekly Forecast:

At the beginning of the coming week, sideways movement is highly likely. A decline toward the support zone cannot be ruled out. The probability of a reversal and a resumption of upward movement will increase closer to the weekend. The resistance zone lies along the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone on the 4-hour time frame.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 0.8300/0.8350

Support:

- 0.8130/0.8080

Recommendations

Selling: Short positions may be considered for short-term trading with reduced position sizes.

Buying: Long positions may become possible once reversal signals appear near the support zone on the trading systems you use.

EUR/JPY

Brief Analysis:

Since late April of this year, the price direction of the EUR/JPY pair has been determined by a downward wave structure. Within its final part, wave (C), an intermediate correction has been developing over the past two weeks. Throughout this period, the price has moved sideways within a potential reversal zone on the higher time frame.

Weekly Forecast:

At the beginning of the coming week, the pair is expected to rise and move sideways along the boundaries of the projected resistance zone. A subsequent reversal and resumption of the downward move can then be anticipated. The support zone indicates the most likely lower boundary of the pair's weekly trading range.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 178.00/178.50

Support:

- 175.00/174.50

Recommendations

Buying: Long positions have no significant potential.

Selling: Short positions may become appropriate once corresponding confirmed reversal signals appear near the resistance zone.

Ethereum

Brief Analysis:

Following a multi-month upward correction, Ethereum's price has reached the boundaries of a broad potential reversal zone on the higher time frame. Since late September, Ethereum has begun declining from intermediate resistance. The overall wave structure does not appear to be complete. The potential downside movement has not yet exceeded the retracement level.

Weekly Forecast:

Throughout the coming week, Ethereum is expected to trade within a range between opposing zones. Sideways movement is likely at the beginning of the week, although an upward move cannot be ruled out. A reversal and resumption of the decline may occur closer to the weekend. A breakout beyond the projected zones is unlikely during the week.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 2500.0/2600.0

Support:

- 1950.0/1850.0

Recommendations

Selling: Short positions may become appropriate once corresponding confirmed reversal signals appear near the resistance zone.

Buying: Long positions are risky and have limited potential.

Explanatory Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A-B-C). The latest unfinished wave is analyzed on each time frame. Dashed lines indicate expected price movements.

Important: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of price movements over time.

Analysis:

Within the dominant bearish trend in the euro chart, a countertrend wave has been developing since the beginning of October. It remains within the boundaries of a corrective structure. The wave is taking the form of an extended flat and is not yet complete at the time of analysis. An intermediate retracement is developing within the final part of wave (C). The price has rebounded from strong resistance.

Forecast:

During the coming week, following a period of sideways trading, the overall upward movement is expected to resume. A short-term decline is possible in the first few days. Pressure on the lower boundary of the support zone cannot be ruled out. Afterward, a reversal may develop, allowing the euro to resume its upward trajectory.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 1.1360/1.1410

Support:

- 1.1200/1.1150

Recommendations:

Buying: Long positions may become possible once appropriate signals appear near the support zone on the trading systems you use.

Selling: The downward potential is limited, and the risk is high.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

The pair's dominant upward extended flat, which has been developing since the beginning of August, has brought the price into an area where potential reversal zones of different time frames converge. Wave structure analysis indicates that an upward segment with reversal potential has been developing in recent weeks. The price is confined between strong levels in opposing directions.

Forecast:

During the coming week, sideways trading is expected to continue, with the price moving within a range between potential reversal zones of different time frames. A decline and movement along the support zone are more likely in the first few days. In the second half of the week, a reversal is expected, accompanied by increased volatility and the beginning of an upward move in the pair.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 159.90/160.40

Support:

- 157.40/156.90

Recommendations:

Buying: Long positions may become appropriate once confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.

Selling: Current market conditions do not favor short positions in this pair.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

The unfinished short-term wave in the GBP/JPY pair began in early August of this year. The wave structure is developing as a running flat. The price has reached the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone on the higher time frame. Within the final part of the wave, a flat correction has been developing over the past four weeks and remains incomplete.

Forecast:

During the coming week, the price is expected to continue moving within a range between the nearest opposing zones. A decline toward the boundaries of the support zone is possible in the first few days. A subsequent reversal and upward movement are likely. The price may rise toward the resistance zone.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 213.00/213.50

Support:

- 210.00/209.50

Recommendations:

Selling: The downward potential is limited. Short positions may be considered with reduced position sizes for intraday trading.

Buying: Long positions may become appropriate once confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone on your trading systems.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

The short-term price direction of the Canadian dollar has been determined by an upward trend since August of this year. By early October, the price had reached the lower boundary of a potential reversal zone on the higher time frame. Since mid-October, the price has been developing a corrective segment that remains incomplete. The price is approaching another potential reversal zone on the hourly time frame.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the coming week, sideways trading is expected to continue. A decline is possible, with the price moving along the support level. A subsequent reversal is expected, followed by a resumption of the pair's upward movement. The price may rise as far as the boundaries of the projected resistance zone.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 1.4240/1.4290

Support:

- 1.4100/1.4050

Recommendations:

Buying: Long positions may become appropriate once reversal signals appear near the support zone on your trading systems.

Selling: Short positions may be risky and have limited potential.

NZD/USD

Brief Analysis:

Since August of this year, a downward wave on the daily time frame has been pushing the New Zealand dollar major pair lower. The current unfinished segment began in early October and is forming a countertrend correction. After breaking through another strong resistance level during the past week, the price has formed an intermediate sideways retracement that remains incomplete.

Weekly Forecast:

At the beginning of the coming week, the New Zealand dollar is expected to continue moving sideways overall. The price may rise toward the resistance zone. A subsequent reversal is likely, and the price may decline toward the boundaries of the support zone.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 0.5690/0.5740

Support:

- 0.5600/0.5550

Recommendations:

Buying: Long positions may be considered in smaller increments for intraday trading.

Selling: Short positions may become appropriate once corresponding signals appear within the reversal zone on your trading systems.

Gold

Analysis:

The short-term price trend in gold has been determined by a downward wave over the past two months. Since late September, an unfinished correction of the main trend has been developing in the opposite direction. In recent weeks, the price has been moving along the upper boundary of a potential reversal zone on the daily chart. The upward segment that began on October 14 has reversal potential.

Forecast:

During the coming week, sideways price movement is expected to continue overall. In the first few days, the most likely scenario is continued sideways trading along the projected support level. A reversal may then develop, allowing the upward movement to resume. The potential weekly advance is limited by the projected resistance zone.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

- 4290.0/4310.0

Support:

- 4140.0/4120.0

Recommendations:

Selling: The downward potential is limited, and short positions may be risky.

Buying: Long positions may become possible once confirmed reversal signals appear on the trading systems you use.

Explanatory Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A-B-C). The latest unfinished wave is analyzed on each time frame. Dashed lines indicate expected price movements.

Important: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of price movements over time.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has so far broken above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another next year. This factor continues to provide strong support for the US dollar, while other factors have become largely irrelevant. The bears are gaining momentum, which is also helping the dollar appreciate.

The news background on Friday was relatively weak, but it allowed the bears to halt the bulls' tentative attempts to establish an upward trend. The final estimate of eurozone inflation released in the morning showed no deviation from the preliminary estimate. As a result, traders did not react to the report. In the second half of the day, the United States released its industrial production report, which showed a 0.7% month-on-month increase in September, compared with market expectations of 0.4%. Therefore, the bears had valid reasons to resume their attacks during the final quarter of the trading day. Overall, Friday's trading was relatively calm, and the bulls failed to strengthen their advantage from the preceding days.

On Monday, however, the bears launched another attack, even though no new reports or developments had emerged so far. There was no news from the Middle East, Ukraine, the European Union, or the United States. The only development worth noting is the widespread unrest in France, which has escalated into a nationwide uprising. The police and security forces have been unable to contain the demonstrators, who are vandalizing and destroying everything in their path. The protests are linked to another increase in the cost of living and possible tax hikes. Thus, the euro is declining again, even though the dollar has gained no new reasons to strengthen.

On the 4-hour chart, following the formation of a fifth bullish divergence, EUR/USD reversed in favor of the euro and rose to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1221. Consolidation above this level would open the way for a rise toward 1.1325. However, on Monday, the pair consolidated below 1.1221, allowing traders to return quickly to the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No developing divergences are currently visible.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 20,091 Long positions and opened 18,150 Short positions. Speculators currently hold a total of 223,000 Long positions and 360,000 Short positions. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more often than it is bought. This is attributable to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's intention to bring inflation down. The market still believes that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any available means.

Overall, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Global events of various kinds, which have been plentiful in recent years, undoubtedly affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of events that could not have been predicted in advance. Traders therefore have little choice but to adapt to changing conditions as they unfold.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

On October 19, the economic calendar contains no scheduled releases. The economic news background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Long positions can be considered if the pair consolidates above 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. Short positions can be considered if the pair consolidates below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

On the lower time frame (upper chart), an impulsive wave sequence is still developing and may belong to wave E of the higher time frame. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how much further it rises. The expected wave 5 of E is either complete or close to completion. In any case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. The news background and a sharp shift in market sentiment triggered a strong rally in the US dollar, but the number of new reasons for further dollar strength is gradually diminishing.

The euro is beginning to recover.

EUR/USD rose by 20 basis points on Friday, which is a very modest increase. However, under current conditions, it is crucial for the euro to maintain its upward momentum. As a reminder, the US inflation report released on Wednesday initially triggered renewed buying of the US dollar, but sellers then retreated sharply. On Thursday, buyers began to apply pressure, even though the US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an even stronger increase than both headline and core inflation. Consequently, market participants had grounds for another wave of US dollar buying but chose not to pursue it. Could this be because the wave count points to the completion of two downward trend segments at once: a local one and a global one?

There will be plenty of significant events worldwide this week, but not all of them warrant particular attention. Over the past month, the market has focused almost exclusively on buying the dollar, while the last few days may have brought the first signs of a long-term trend reversal. Therefore, the news background may influence market sentiment and trading activity, but the market has not always responded to news in recent weeks. It may continue to ignore some releases this week as well.

Accordingly, attention will focus on the most important events. On Wednesday, the UK will release its inflation report, which should convince traders that tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England is not a remote or hypothetical possibility, but a tangible prospect that could materialize in the near future. UK inflation has a strong chance of accelerating to 3.4% in September and reaching 4% by the end of the year, according to Andrew Bailey. Consequently, the BoE has little choice but to raise interest rates. Andrew Bailey is also scheduled to speak this week and may provide the market with several signals pointing to a possible tightening as early as the beginning of November. In my view, the euro and the pound could strengthen over the next five days.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend structure. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. In my view, this is a favorable time not only to consider buying the euro but also to anticipate the development of a sustained upward trend segment. According to the higher time frame, the pair could rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 level. The unsuccessful attempt to break above the 1.1126 level, which corresponds to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (lower chart, higher time frame), also indicates that the market may be preparing for renewed buying.

The higher time frame shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, but this pattern may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.

2. If there is no clear understanding of what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.

3. There can never be absolute certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.

4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The market situation has turned bullish. Will it last? The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the new upward wave has also broken above the previous high. Thus, the bulls have temporarily taken the initiative. The FOMC's tighter monetary policy and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Perhaps the time has now come for a bullish counterattack.

On Friday, the news background supported the British pound despite a strong US industrial production report. Earlier that night, Kevin Warsh stated that he would not make important monetary policy decisions in advance and that the US central bank had no clearly defined interest rate path. Thus, the FOMC president declined to comment on the latest inflation reports, which showed higher readings than traders had expected. The market reacted negatively and began selling the dollar again. This process did not last long, but the pound's prospects currently look better than those of the euro. On Wednesday, the UK will publish its inflation report, which will most likely show an increase, as in the United States and the European Union. It remains uncertain whether the market will react to this release, but it represents another opportunity for the pound. If UK inflation rises to 3.4%, this would mean that the Bank of England could begin tackling the inflation problem in the near future. However, it is worth noting that the market is ignoring a similar factor affecting the euro. Sterling has a chance to extend its gains, but the dollar could regain the upper hand.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3159 and reversed in favor of the British currency, rising toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3277. The technical picture on the hourly chart is currently more convincing, so the hourly chart is the one to focus on. No new developing divergences are currently visible in any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among Non-commercial traders became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 1,074, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,279. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 44,000 versus 151,000, respectively. The bears' advantage is growing again. Previously, their dominance was unquestionable, but it is now less clear-cut because the news background has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in sterling is still unconvincing, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted its focus toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. It is also uncertain whether they will resume in the near future.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On October 19, the economic calendar contains no significant releases. The economic news background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from the 1.3368 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3272. These positions can remain open today. Buying was possible after the pair closed above 1.3272, with a target of 1.3368. This target has been reached. New long positions can be considered following a rebound from 1.3272, with a target of 1.3368.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Semiconductor index losing streak

History repeats itself. Investors have seen this pattern before, albeit long ago. The US railroad bubble of the 1880s and the dot-com bubble around the turn of the century both burst and devastated equity markets, with recovery taking many years. The script is always similar: massive investments fuel linear revenue growth for the sector, but eventually capital spending slows, revenues falter, and investors, used to ever-higher expectations, turn disappointed and sell.

Something similar appears to be playing out today. Expected future earnings have come to exceed current prices by a wide margin. As a result, the P/E ratio may decline, but tempting headline multiples don't tell the full story. The concern is not the price but earnings. As with railroads and dot-coms, stellar financial results can prove temporary.

S&P 500 and expected earnings dynamics

Understanding this process makes investors cautious. Greed has given way to fear, and the key question is whether corporate results will disappoint in the near term — in Q3? If so, selling among the Magnificent Seven would be entirely rational.

Minack Advisors estimates that forecasted earnings for the largest AI beneficiaries, including Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Palantir, plus 11 closely related names, have risen by $700 billion. That compares with roughly $500 billion of expected earnings for the rest of the S&P 500.

Further pressure on the broad index comes from Brent back above $110/bbl, the first time since May. Then, the world economy was panicking over supply disruptions. Now, Middle East exports have recovered to about 80% of pre-shock levels. Investors still fear escalation, an inflation resurgence, and higher Fed rates. Combined with fading enthusiasm for AI, that has prompted broad sell-offs in US equities.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has formed a bearish engulfing bar that broke fair value to the downside. That signals the bears' strength and supports a sell bias while the price remains below 7,710.