At the moment, it is difficult to believe in such a substantial decline of the euro, but the first quarter of 2026 demonstrated that geopolitical developments can dramatically alter market trends.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic three-wave bullish corrective structure. Following the completion of this structure, a new downward trend segment began to form, which, logically, should be impulsive in nature. If this assumption is correct, we can expect a five-wave structure within higher-degree Wave C, with targets below the 1.1400 level.

Are there sufficient fundamental reasons to expect such a strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar? Not conclusively. However, the market is increasingly losing confidence in the prospect of a deal between the United States and Iran, which is supporting dollar buyers.

The EUR/USD pair declined by 30 basis points on Wednesday and is gradually moving toward the formation of a new downward wave, which may be identified as the fifth wave within the current bearish structure. If this interpretation is correct, only one conclusion can be drawn: the market has largely abandoned hopes for a peace agreement between Iran and the United States and is once again shifting toward safe-haven assets and currencies.

The recent decline in the cryptocurrency market indirectly supports this view. Traders are once again reducing risk exposure, as hopes for a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East continue to fade.

I do not even wish to list today's geopolitical headlines. They offer nothing fundamentally new or particularly informative. Every day, traders receive the same collection of conflicting reports or statements that fail to reflect objective reality.

At the same time, there has been very little economic data released today, and the market continues to pay limited attention to macroeconomic indicators. For example, yesterday's Eurozone inflation report was largely ignored despite significantly increasing the likelihood of European Central Bank monetary tightening next week.

Even the prospect of a rate hike in the Eurozone in June, while neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England is expected to raise rates, has provided no meaningful support for the euro. The market is simply ignoring economic factors and remains skeptical about a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Middle East.

As a result, we are seeing a moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is fully consistent with the current wave structure.

What should be expected after the completion of the fifth wave? In my view, at least a three-wave bullish sequence will begin to form, and its strength will once again depend on geopolitical developments. Nothing has changed in that regard.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a broader bullish trend segment (lower chart) and, in the shorter term, within a corrective structure. At present, Wave 5 may be developing as part of Wave C.

The entirety of Wave C, if the current wave count is correct, may ultimately complete its formation well below the 1.1400 level. However, such a significant decline would require substantial support from geopolitical factors. Otherwise, the bearish wave sequence may become truncated and complete slightly below the 1.1600 level.

On the higher time frame, a bullish trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, Wave C is expected to form with targets near 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Once the A-B-C corrective structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in what the market is doing, it is better to stay out of it.
3. Absolute certainty regarding market direction does not and cannot exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

For the second consecutive week, the EUR/USD pair has been attempting to reverse in favor of the euro and resume its upward movement. The bullish trend remains intact, and Bullish Imbalance 13 has not been invalidated. However, it can now be stated with confidence that bulls lack sufficient strength for a new advance.

The current chart structure clearly suggests that the reaction to Bullish Imbalance 13 has been weak and unconvincing, while the reaction to Bearish Imbalance 15 was precise and decisive. At the same time, bears also lack compelling reasons to launch a sustained attack. EUR/USD has effectively been moving sideways for several weeks.

What is the market waiting for? In my view, it is not waiting for anything in particular; rather, it is simply ignoring a large portion of the incoming news flow. In June 2026, geopolitics completely overshadowed all other market themes. At the same time, geopolitical headlines require careful filtering to separate meaningful developments from noise. At present, traders are effectively disregarding nearly all news entering the information space, and for good reason, as none of the recent headlines have materially changed the situation in the Middle East or the prospects for relations between Iran and the United States.

Nevertheless, geopolitical developments will continue to determine both price action and market sentiment in the near term. If Tehran and Washington eventually sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, and make progress in negotiations on the nuclear issue, it will become much easier for bulls to regain momentum, allowing both the euro and the pound to resume their upward trends.

The problem, however, is that the likelihood of such an optimistic scenario appears to be decreasing with each passing day.

Under current conditions, traders can either expect a reaction from Bullish Imbalance 13, which remains the latest bullish pattern within the current bullish impulse, or its eventual invalidation. If the recent decline is viewed as a corrective pullback, it may already have been completed within Imbalance 13.

However, without geopolitical support, bullish traders will struggle to push the market higher, something that has been clearly demonstrated over the past two weeks. If the current move is interpreted as the beginning of a new bearish trend, then traders should expect negotiations to fail and the conflict to escalate once again. In that case, the sell signal formed within Bearish Imbalance 15 would become increasingly relevant.

It is worth emphasizing once again that the U.S. dollar's appreciation between January and March was driven almost entirely by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bearish pressure on EUR/USD quickly faded, and bulls dominated the market for more than a month.

At present, the chances of reaching a comprehensive agreement are declining once again, while the market remains highly skeptical of any reports suggesting that the conflict is close to resolution. More precisely, a deal will likely be signed eventually, but "eventually" is not sufficient to support a strong and sustained rally in EUR/USD.

The overall technical picture remains relatively clear. The bullish trend is still intact, but it desperately requires support. Ideally, that support should come from geopolitics through at least a framework agreement between Iran and the United States, followed by continued negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Without a favorable news backdrop, a renewed advance in the euro appears unlikely.

Economic data released on Wednesday once again failed to attract traders' attention. The only potentially market-moving report was the ISM Services PMI, but earlier in the week the Manufacturing PMI had little impact on sentiment. Other important releases, including Eurozone inflation data, were largely ignored by the market.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has done little to change the broader picture. Structurally and fundamentally, the policies that contributed to the dollar's significant decline last year remain unchanged.

Over the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen as investors seek safe-haven assets, but such support would require continuous escalation in the Middle East. I still do not believe a sustainable bearish trend in EUR/USD is developing. The dollar has received temporary support from geopolitical events, but it remains unclear what factors could sustain a long-term dollar rally.

• Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone
• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (08:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Retail Sales (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

The June 4 economic calendar contains three scheduled events, none of which I consider particularly significant. As a result, the economic backdrop may have little or no impact on market sentiment throughout Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed dramatically three months ago, but the broader trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or completed.

Therefore, bulls may resume their advance in the near future if they receive even modest support from geopolitical developments.

Traders previously had opportunities to open long positions based on signals from Imbalance 12 and the Order Block. The upward movement could eventually resume toward this year's highs, with Bullish Imbalance 13 serving as the key reference zone.

At present, however, it is crucial that bulls maintain market control. For the euro to continue rising without significant obstacles, the Middle East conflict must move toward a durable peace. A breakdown in negotiations, rejection of a framework agreement by either side, or another ceasefire violation could strengthen bearish pressure.

A sell signal has already formed within Bearish Imbalance 15. If the geopolitical situation fails to improve this week, a decline toward 1.1500 will become increasingly likely. Nevertheless, Bullish Imbalance 13 continues to act as a strong support zone.

The GBP/USD pair has continued to trade within Bearish Imbalance 19 for the past two and a half weeks and has so far failed either to invalidate it or to form a sell signal. The chart structure continues to support a bullish advance; however, in that case, Imbalance 19 should be invalidated, and the price should be moving higher rather than remaining range-bound.

This week, Donald Trump once again stated that a deal with Iran could be signed in the very near future. At the same time, the United States and Iran exchanged strikes again, Tehran suspended negotiations with Washington at the beginning of the week, and it remains unclear whether consultations between the parties are still ongoing. The market is in a state of extreme uncertainty and is unwilling to make significant decisions without a clearer understanding of how events in the Middle East will develop in the near future.

Therefore, traders can currently do little more than wait for genuinely important information. It should be noted that Iran continues to insist on its right to use nuclear energy and is also demanding a complete cessation of military operations against itself and its allies.

Overall, the situation in the Middle East is better than it was a few months ago when active hostilities were ongoing. Nevertheless, traders remain concerned that the situation could shift toward renewed escalation. In fact, this is exactly what has been happening over the past two weeks. Last week, the United States carried out two missile strikes against Iranian targets, while Iran responded with strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait. The new week began with the situation repeating itself twice more. The more frequently such exchanges occur, the lower the market's confidence in the prospects for a peaceful agreement.

In my view, the trend remains bullish despite the pair's significant declines earlier this year. At present, the ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still in place and could be extended for another 60 days. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, the nuclear issue has not been resolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations relies almost entirely on statements from Donald Trump. Iran maintains a very different position.

The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. For now, the market still retains some confidence that an agreement can be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited.

The current technical picture is as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a market reaction, whereas Bearish Imbalance 19 did not and is likely to be invalidated. Therefore, the chart structure continues to support further appreciation of the pound. The main task now is to monitor geopolitical developments closely in order to exit long positions promptly if negotiations once again reach a deadlock and the framework agreement remains agreed upon but unsigned.

The economic news flow on Wednesday once again had no impact on market sentiment. The pound continues to trade within Imbalance 19, and neither economic reports nor developments from the Middle East have been able to force traders out of this range.

The broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, from a long-term perspective, there is little reason to expect anything other than continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little in this regard. Geopolitical developments temporarily reminded markets of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging.

The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving toward recession, inflation is rising, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be in a position to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Across the United States, four major protests have recently taken place specifically against Donald Trump, while Jerome Powell's eventual departure could further worsen the outlook for the dollar if the FOMC adopts a more dovish stance under Kevin Warsh.

From an economic standpoint, I see no grounds for dollar appreciation. Only geopolitical developments are capable of supporting the U.S. currency.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

United States

• Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

The economic calendar for June 4 contains only one release, which is unlikely to attract significant market attention. Therefore, the economic backdrop is not expected to influence market sentiment on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The Three Drives pattern warned traders about the beginning of the upward move. Since then, three bullish patterns and three bullish signals have formed, all of which offered trading opportunities.

At present, bulls continue to hold the initiative and have formed a new bullish signal within Bullish Imbalance 18. If geopolitical developments become more favorable, the upward move is likely to continue.

My primary target for the pound remains the 2026 high at 1.3867, while the nearest target is 1.3656.

At this stage, there are no grounds for considering a bearish trend. The only bearish imbalance is close to invalidation, and no new bearish patterns have emerged.

The test of the 1.3452 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The British pound remained under pressure despite an upward revision of the UK Services PMI for May to 49.3. However, despite the improvement, it is important to note that the PMI remains in contraction territory. This means that the services sector, a key driver of the UK economy, continues to face significant pressure. Challenges related to inflation, high borrowing costs, and uncertainty in global markets continue to weigh on the business environment.

Traders will now focus on U.S. labor market data, which traditionally serves as an indicator of the health of the American economy. Today, ADP will release its report on the change in U.S. private-sector employment. This indicator often acts as a leading signal for the official labor market figures, and its result may set the tone for subsequent trading.

In addition, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Services PMI. This indicator, which reflects conditions in one of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy, traditionally has a significant impact on investor sentiment. Strong data will help the U.S. dollar extend its gains against the pound.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3457 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3480 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3480, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a reversal of 30–35 points from that level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected if U.S. data comes in weaker than forecast.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3444 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward 1.3457 and 1.3480 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3444 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target for sellers will be 1.3421, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Pressure on the pound is likely to return today if U.S. data comes in strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3457 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3444 and 1.3421 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1620 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The euro posted a modest decline following the release of Eurozone services PMI data. Although the figures came in slightly better than economists' forecasts, this moderate boost in optimism failed to reverse the broader trend, as the indicator remained below the critical 50-point threshold. This clearly points to continued contraction in business activity within a key sector of the Eurozone economy.

Market attention will now focus on the ADP Employment Change report, which reflects the change in private-sector employment in the United States for May. This indicator often serves as a leading signal for the official labor market data and provides insight into labor market conditions and their potential impact on future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Following the employment report, the ISM Services PMI will be released. Positive momentum or, conversely, signs of slowing activity in this sector could have a noticeable impact on market sentiment and expectations regarding future economic growth.

Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will provide another important angle for analysis. The Treasury Secretary typically addresses fiscal policy, government debt conditions, and international economic relations. His remarks may touch on the budget deficit, taxation, and trade relations, all of which can directly influence the U.S. dollar.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro can be considered when the price reaches 1.1628 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1651. At 1.1651, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a reversal of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected if U.S. data comes in weaker than forecast.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1612 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward 1.1628 and 1.1651 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1612 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if U.S. data comes in stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1628 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1612 and 1.1594 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

Despite services PMI data from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom coming in above economists' forecasts, neither the euro nor the pound posted strong gains. This suggests that, despite some positive signals, the sector remains in a state of contraction. Of particular concern is the fact that weak performance is being observed not only in individual countries but also across the European Union as a whole.

The key factors behind the negative dynamics remain elevated inflation, driven by higher energy and commodity prices, as well as the high probability of further monetary policy tightening. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty related to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global supply chains continues to weigh on sentiment.

Attention now turns to a busy economic calendar, which is expected to bring a significant amount of important data and public remarks. One of the key indicators attracting market attention will be the U.S. ADP Employment Change report for May. This indicator is often viewed as a precursor to the official labor market data and serves as a barometer of labor market conditions and their potential impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Following the employment data, the ISM Services PMI will be released. This index reflects conditions in one of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy, which accounts for a substantial share of GDP.

In addition, public remarks from Federal Reserve officials always attract considerable market attention. Later in the day, FOMC member Michael S. Barr, known for his balanced stance, will share his assessment of current economic conditions and the outlook for monetary policy. His comments may provide further insight into potential changes in the Federal Reserve's strategy regarding interest rates and other policy tools. At the same time, remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will add another important element for market analysis.

Careful assessment of the released data and officials' comments will allow traders to formulate more accurate forecasts and make informed decisions in a challenging market environment.

If the economic data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1630 may lead to a rise toward 1.1655 and 1.1684;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1606 may lead to a decline toward 1.1579 and 1.1555.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3478 may lead to a rise toward 1.3510 and 1.3535;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3440 may lead to a decline toward 1.3410 and 1.3370.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.85 may lead to a rise toward 159.99 and 160.12;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.60 may lead to a decline toward 159.40 and 159.20.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1630 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1605 followed by a return above this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3465 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3432 followed by a return above this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7183 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7160 followed by a return above this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3862 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3839 followed by a return above this level.

Today, Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) continues to decline, once again falling below the $4,450 level and approaching the critically important 200-day SMA, while reaching a new weekly low during recent trading hours. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher for a third consecutive day, increasing inflation risks and reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period.

This is weighing on gold, which does not generate interest income. In addition, geopolitical instability continues to support the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, contributing to capital outflows from the precious metal.

According to the latest reports regarding the Middle East crisis, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, describing the operation as an act of "self-defense." In response, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, although a significant portion of the attacks was intercepted by U.S. and allied air defense systems in the region. At the same time, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified.

Another source of tension is the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran amid disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. This increases the likelihood of further escalation and keeps geopolitical risks elevated. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the removal of sanctions on Iran is not being considered in exchange for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that any sanctions relief would only be possible if Tehran abandons its enriched uranium program.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire regime and the continuation of the blockade until the negotiation process is concluded "one way or another." These developments have contributed to the recovery in oil prices following the monthly low recorded last Friday, strengthening inflation expectations and reinforcing forecasts of tighter monetary policy from major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Additional support for these expectations came from comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack, who stated that the central bank remains committed to returning inflation to the 2% target and may be forced to take further action if price growth fails to slow in the near term. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are assigning a probability of more than 50% to a 25-basis-point rate hike in December.

Elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to support the dollar, placing additional pressure on gold prices.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias. Failure to hold above the 200-day SMA could accelerate the decline toward deeper support levels. If bulls manage to break above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, they will gain an opportunity for further growth. However, as long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears retain the advantage.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish. Bulls will only be able to continue their advance if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement, stop violating the ceasefire terms, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened in the near future. Without these developments, it will be extremely difficult for them to launch a sustained offensive.

Several notable reports were released in both the European Union and the United States on Tuesday. Unfortunately, they once again failed to attract traders' attention, although they allow for several important conclusions. An acceleration in inflation in the Eurozone to 3.2% year-on-year and in core inflation to 2.5% year-on-year gives traders reason to expect tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank. It hardly needs to be said that higher interest rates are generally a bullish factor for a currency, especially if other central banks are not expected to tighten policy. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are highly unlikely to adopt hawkish decisions in June. Therefore, the euro could have been expected to rise yesterday and today, but instead it remains under pressure. Could the JOLTS report have prevented the bulls from launching an attack? The report showed a reading significantly above market expectations, but in my view, the JOLTS data had little to do with the pair's decline. The same can be said about geopolitics, which has been changing direction several times a day in recent weeks. In my opinion, bulls and bears are engaged in a tug-of-war within a limited price range, paying little attention to incoming news and economic data. Trading activity remains extremely low.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade within a horizontal range between the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1667. The market is in no hurry to open new positions or draw firm conclusions. At the moment, I recommend focusing primarily on the hourly chart, as price movements have remained relatively weak in recent weeks. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 10,196 Long positions and 6,109 Short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while over the past nine weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the suspension of military activity in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, compared with 193,000 Short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, large market participants continue to view the euro favorably over the long term. Naturally, various global developments—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has merely been paused rather than concluded. Consequently, in the near term, the euro and the U.S. dollar will be driven not by Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor by economic data, but by developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Services PMI (07:55 UTC).
• Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 3 contains four events, with the U.S. releases being the most noteworthy. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1682 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1578. The first target has already been reached. New short positions may be considered following another rebound from the 1.1682 level. Long positions may be opened following a rebound from the 1.1578 level, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1682.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical developments to launch a sustained advance. The most recent completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Geopolitical developments have recently provided support to bulls; however, the prospects for reaching an agreement between Iran and the United States are once again fading rapidly. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after a breakout above the May 25 high.

The news backdrop shifted every few hours on Tuesday. Economic releases favored the bears, as the U.S. JOLTS job openings figure for April came in above market expectations. However, this report was released relatively late in the day, and traders showed little activity beforehand. Meanwhile, Donald Trump managed to prevent a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Following talks with Israel, he reportedly persuaded the country not to carry out strikes against Lebanon or deploy troops there, actions that would have prompted Iran to suspend negotiations with the United States. This morning, the U.S. President stated that negotiations are continuing and that an agreement could be reached in the near future, though he could provide no guarantees. According to Trump, Iran is a large country, and negotiations with it remain extremely difficult. I do not attribute the morning strengthening of the U.S. dollar to geopolitical developments, as market sentiment has been changing as frequently as geopolitical headlines in recent days. The current decline may end just as quickly as it began.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has returned to the 1.3482–1.3514 resistance level. Another rebound from this zone would once again favor the U.S. dollar and support a moderate decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements are likely to remain driven primarily by geopolitical developments rather than technical analysis in the near term. Technical analysis should be viewed only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became slightly less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,097, while the number of Short positions declined by 13,006. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 58,000 versus 119,000 contracts. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict. However, recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be easy or quick.

Economic Calendar for the United Kingdom and the United States:

• United Kingdom – Services PMI (08:30 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 3 contains three events, two of which can be considered significant. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Long positions may be considered following a rebound from the 1.3408 level, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. Traders may also consider buying the pair if it closes above the 1.3454–1.3466 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

The company on Wednesday said it will offer issuers and acquirers additional settlement options, including intraday settlements, weekend and holiday processing, and blockchain-based settlements using regulated stablecoins. The new capabilities will operate alongside existing fiat processes and are intended to give financial institutions greater flexibility in managing liquidity.

Initially, Mastercard will support settlements in USDC from Circle; PYUSD, USDG, and USDP from Paxos; and RLUSD from Ripple and SoFiUSD — on the Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Base, Arbitrum, and XRPL blockchains.

Behind the technical detail of the announcement lies a fundamental shift in the logic of global payments. Card transactions are authorized instantly, but settlements between banks and payment providers frequently occur later, in batches, and are constrained by banking hours. Mastercard's new scheme moves the network toward a model of continuous availability, where money is transferred and settled around the clock — without weekends, holidays, or time windows.

"The next phase of stablecoin adoption is about real-world utility, especially in settlement, where timing and liquidity matter most," Raj Dhamodharan, vice president for blockchain and digital assets at Mastercard, said. The company is effectively acknowledging that stablecoins have evolved beyond instruments for crypto trading and are becoming bona fide settlement assets for banks, payment firms, and asset managers.

Trading recommendations:

Buyers of BTC are targeting a return to $67,700, a level that would open a direct path to $69,500 and then to $71,400. A breach above $71,400 would indicate attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $65,800. A return of the price below that area could quickly drag Bitcoin toward $64,300. The farther target is $62,600.

As for Ethereum, a clear hold above $1,901 would open a direct route to $1,963. The farther target is the high near $2,026. A break above that level would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,827. A fall below that point could rapidly send Ethereum toward $1,783, with a deeper target at $1,724.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Dynamics of S&P 500 winning streaks

The breathtaking 36% surge in tech stocks from March highs has overshadowed weakness in energy and other names and produced a 16% rally in the S&P 500 through April–May. However, more than 12 percentage points of that divergence are attributable to just a dozen issuers. And FOMO, or Fear of Missing Out, is not confined to retail crowds; professional investors are acting the same way.

Chipmakers are leading the charge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has jumped by about 90% from this year's local lows. New S&P records were driven by Marvell Technology and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Marvell rallied after NVIDIA's CEO Steven Jen said it could be the next company to join the $1 trillion market-cap club. Hewlett Packard Enterprise surprised investors with a strong Q1 report.

Dynamics of skeptics vs optimists in the US equity market

While euphoria grips US equities, Wall Street trading advisors are split on the S&P 500's outlook. Some who previously advised buy-and-hold are turning bearish. The share of pessimists is materially higher than on the eve of the dot-com bubble burst. For some, that's a worrying signal; others see it as evidence the rally can continue — the market has yet to reach its ceiling.

S&P bulls are undeterred by geopolitics or by rising odds of Fed tightening in 2026, currently priced in at 56% following hawkish FOMC comments. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said it makes sense to keep rates on hold amid uncertainty, but if inflation accelerates further, the central bank will have to act.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has cut the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening from 60% to 22% over the past 10 days. Geopolitics continues to weigh on other asset classes, but equities are ignoring it for now. How long that will last remains the key question.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart remains unchanged: the broad index is confidently moving toward the previously announced long target of 7,700. The buy-the-dip strategy is working like clockwork. There is no case yet to abandon it — the bias remains for a continued rally.

Global equity markets are back at record highs. The MSCI All-Country World index added 0.1% to a record level, Asian bourses rose by about 0.7%, joining Wall Street at new peaks. The main engine remains semiconductors: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed by nearly 6% to a record high, and Asian chip makers followed suit, hitting fresh peaks. Europe is set to open slightly lower, however, geopolitics is reasserting itself.

The AI narrative continues to dominate with extraordinary force. Reuters reports that SpaceX plans an IPO at a $75bn valuation priced at $135 per share. This is another sign of how strong investor appetite for tech is right now. Traders are ignoring concerns about stretched valuations, betting instead on continued corporate profit growth and hopes for a geopolitical settlement.

That said, oil above $97/bbl is a reminder that the settlement is not yet a done deal. US-Iran talks have stalled again, hostilities in the Middle East have resumed, and the market is in a state of cognitive dissonance: equities at records, oil elevated, gold down near $4,465 under pressure from inflation expectations and high rates. Bitcoin slipped to around $67,000.

Yesterday's US labor market data bolstered bulls. The report showed that job openings jumped to a near-two-year high in April and layoffs declined. This signals that the labor market remains resilient despite the energy shock. Today's ADP report is expected to be fairly strong. The week's climax will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 4.46% — the first of three employment reports this week reinforced the view that the next move under Fed chair Kevin Warsh is more likely to be an interest rate hike than a cut.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen is trading near the psychologically important 160 per dollar level, a break above which typically triggers expectations of intervention by Japanese authorities. Traders are reluctant to push the pair higher, mindful that the Bank of Japan and the finance ministry are watching closely.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,607. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,639. Maintaining control above $7,659 would further cement buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,574 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,547 and open the way to $7,518.

The news backdrop yesterday was especially convoluted. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a temporary peace agreement with Iran, contradicting Iranian media reports of a suspension in negotiations due to hostilities in Lebanon. However, almost simultaneously, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain—these were intercepted or failed en route—while US forces struck new targets on Qeshm Island.

It is clear that the metal remains in a downtrend, indicating instability in sentiment—and this is not accidental. Since the beginning of the war, gold has lost about 15% and moves in inverse correlation with oil: rising energy prices amplify inflation expectations, pushing rates upward and pressuring the non—interest—bearing metal.

Considering that rates in the US are certain to rise by the end of the year—given that the recently published data on the US labor market showed a surge in job openings to a nearly two-year high—all of this strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated outright that the central bank may soon need to take action against heightened inflation. The higher the rates, the lower the value of gold.

Silver lost 0.1% to trade at $75 per ounce. Platinum remained stable, while palladium gained 0.2%.

Regarding the current technical situation for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow them to target $4,546, above which breaking through will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be around $4,607. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,432. If they succeed, a range breakdown will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,372, with the prospect of a further decline to $4,304.

There are ample reasons for the increase. Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain—these were either intercepted or destroyed en route—while US forces struck back at a command center on Qeshm Island. Kuwait has suspended flights at its international airport after an Iranian drone damaged a passenger terminal. All of this occurs against the backdrop of Trump's statements expressing optimism about a soon-to-be-finalized agreement—alongside simultaneous reports from Iranian media about the suspension of negotiations due to hostilities in Lebanon. The market is receiving conflicting signals and responding to the most tangible—escalation.

A fundamentally significant detail emerged yesterday evening. According to ABC News, Trump is demanding that Iran put its nuclear concessions in writing as part of a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities. Prior to this, Tehran had only offered verbal assurances regarding various conditions. This requirement significantly complicates the negotiation process—obtaining written commitments regarding Iran's nuclear program is politically much more challenging than securing verbal assurances, which explains why an agreement that seemed imminent just a week ago has still not been signed.

It is also noteworthy that supply shortages continue to mount. According to the American oil industry, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.8 million barrels last week. If the Department of Energy's official data confirms this figure, it will mark the sixth consecutive reduction. All of this indicates that normalization of flows is still far off, and risks are skewed toward rising prices—especially considering the approaching third quarter with its seasonally high demand for energy resources.

Regarding the current technical situation in the oil market, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow them to target $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest goal will be around $110.80. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $92.54. If they succeed, breaching this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing oil down to a low of $86.50, with the prospect of a further decline to $81.40.

Meanwhile, the US securities regulator has made a statement that would have been hard to imagine two years ago. In the SEC's strategic plan draft for the fiscal years 2026–2030, digital assets have been singled out as a distinct strategic objective for the first time.

The regulator has directly acknowledged that the growth of digital assets is outpacing the existing regulatory framework and has set the goal of creating a solid regulatory basis for digital assets and blockchain technologies through a rational, consistent, and principled approach. The document is capped by the thesis from SEC Chairman Paul Atkins: "Blockchain and crypto asset technologies have the potential to revolutionize America's financial infrastructure." Coming from the head of a regulator long associated with strict enforcement actions against crypto, this sounds like a 180-degree turnaround.

Among the specific areas of focus mentioned by the SEC are tokenized offerings and blockchain financial infrastructure as areas where the regulator aims to support capital formation within the legislative framework. Storage, trading, and staking services are also highlighted, which is very positive for the further development of the crypto industry.

As for intraday trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $67,600, targeting a rise to the level of $69,500. At $69,500, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be considered from the lower boundary at $66,600 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back up towards $67,600 and $69,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $66,700, targeting a decline to $64,900. At $64,900, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy back on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can also be considered from the upper boundary at $67,500 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $66,600 and $64,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,876, targeting a rise to the level of $1,903. At $1,903, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be considered from the lower boundary at $1,852 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $1,876 and $1,903.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1,852, targeting a decline to $1,802. At $1,802, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy back on the pullback. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be considered from the upper boundary at $1,876 if there is no market reaction to breaching it back down towards $1,852 and $1,802.

The test of the price level at 159.79 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Yesterday's news that Iran has suspended negotiations with the US due to breaches of the ceasefire led to a rise in the US dollar. Markets, spooked by another escalation of regional tensions, sought refuge in traditionally safer assets, and the dollar once again led the move.

Today, financial markets eagerly await the speech from the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda. This event could be a key moment that significantly impacts the future direction of the country's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates. Analysts worldwide are closely monitoring every word to predict what steps the Bank of Japan will take in light of current economic trends.

The last few months have been marked by uncertainty about inflation indicators and economic growth in Japan. Governor Ueda, known for his cautious approach, is likely to present a balanced assessment of the situation, considering both domestic and global factors. Special attention will be given to whether he provides clear signals about the possibility of further monetary policy tightening, as the yen has been in need of strengthening, and recent interventions have not yielded noticeable results.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.98 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.35 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.35, I intend to exit my positions and sell back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.94 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.98 and 160.35.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.84 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.49 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.98 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.84 and 159.49.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.3458 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential.

The dollar strengthened its position against the pound amid a new standoff between the US and Iran. Tensions in the Middle East typically boost demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. The recent data on US job openings for April also supported the dollar, as it rose to 7.618 million. This figure is an important indicator of the health of the US labor market and comes ahead of the ADP report.

This morning, in the first half of the day, significant data for the British economy is expected. Specifically, the May figures for the UK services PMI index and the composite PMI index are on the agenda. Economists forecast that the index will remain below the 50-point mark, indicating negative sentiment. The current situation suggests a slowdown in the British economy's growth rate. A PMI index value below 50 traditionally signals a contraction in business activity within the relevant sector. In the services sector, a key driver of the British economy, this could have far-reaching consequences, affecting consumer demand, employment levels, and investment activity.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3468 (the green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.3508 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3508 level, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). One can only expect strong pound growth today following good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3452 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3468 and 1.3508.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks below 1.3452 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3412 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pound will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3468 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3452 and 1.3412.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.1654 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

Yesterday, the dollar rose again as a combination of geopolitical tensions and positive US labor market indicators created a favorable environment for the strengthening of the American currency. The increase in job openings in the US signals the strength of the American labor market and potentially increases consumer activity. This can be interpreted as a hint at the ongoing resilience of the US economy despite external shocks.

The first half of today is expected to be eventful for financial markets, with a number of key macroeconomic data releases from the Eurozone. Investors and analysts will closely watch the May PMI for the services sector. This indicator is one of the most important leading indicators reflecting the state of business activity in the largest sector of the European economy. Along with the services PMI index, the market is also anticipating data on the composite PMI for May. This indicator, which combines data from the manufacturing and services sectors, provides a more comprehensive view of overall business activity in the Eurozone. If the composite index also shows weak results, it could heighten concerns about recovery prospects and further pressure the euro.

In addition, investors will be monitoring the dynamics of the producer price index (PPI) for May. Changes in this indicator can provide insight into inflation trends at the production stage, which, in turn, may influence expectations regarding future monetary policy from the European Central Bank.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1638 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1663. At the level of 1.1663, I intend to exit the market and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). One can only expect the euro to grow after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1620 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1638 and 1.1663.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1620 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, at which point I intend to exit short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pair will only return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1638 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1620 and 1.1594.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $1,859, rebounding after hitting the lower band of the downtrend channel that formed in early May from the $2,400 level. ETH could face downward pressure and reach the psychological level of $1,750 in the coming days, which also coincides with the key -2/8 Murray support level.

Given that Ethereum has reached the lower band of the downtrend channel, if this proves to be solid support, we could expect a technical rebound, which could be seen as an opportunity to take long positions.

If Ethereum consolidates above $1,850 - $1,875, our outlook could turn positive, as above the -1/8 Murray level, Ethereum could retest the 21 SMA around $1,990 and potentially reach the psychological $2,000 level near the 0/8 Murray level.

Technically, Ethereum is reaching oversold levels. The Eagle indicator has reached 5 points, signaling an imminent technical rebound, but we must be cautious, as it is better to wait for consolidation around a solid support level before opening long positions.

When liquidity drops, most cryptocurrencies tend to make unexpected moves, so we could expect a sharp drop toward $1,750 before the price recovers or rebounds. We must therefore be very cautious, as the formation of a consolidation pattern could be interpreted as a buy signal.

Crude oil is trading around $92.83 within a downtrend channel and testing resistance levels after reaching $93.65 near the 200 EMA.

If USD/OIL consolidates above the 200 EMA in the coming hours, this could be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at the gap left on May 22 around $95.99. Ultimately, it could reach the upper band of the downtrend channel around $96.42.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal for crude oil, so we believe it could continue its rise in the coming days. Should a technical correction occur in the coming hours toward the psychological level of $90, this could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions with a target at $96.50.

On the H4 chart, we can see that crude oil is trading within an uptrend channel. If a break above $96.50 occurs, the instrument could easily reach the psychological level of $100 and might even reach May's high around $103.40.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to buy crude oil in the event of a technical correction toward the 21 SMA at $89.31 or toward the lower band of the uptrend channel around $90.34, which could be seen as a clear signal to open long positions.

Gold is trading around $4,474, reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the low of 4,365 to the high of 4,595.

If gold consolidates above $4,460 in the coming hours and above the 61.8% Fibonacci area, it could be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at the 21 SMA around $4,511.

Even a decisive break above the 38.2% Fibonacci level could prompt gold to continue its uptrend, potentially reaching the 200 EMA at around $4,597.

Conversely, if gold falls below $4,460, the downtrend could be confirmed, and we can expect a retest of the key 6/8 Murray support around $4,375.

Gold is under downward pressure. So, if a pullback occurs toward $4,511 or $4,597, its bearish cycle could resume, with prices expected to reach $4,375 in the short term.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, but XAU/USD may struggle to continue rising as it is under downward pressure; only a decisive break above $4,600 in the coming days could trigger a new bullish sequence, in which case we could expect the instrument to reach $4,750.

The British pound is trading at 1.3453 within an uptrend channel that has been forming since May 18, showing positive momentum but struggling to break through strong resistance at the 3/8 Murray line.

If the British pound consolidates above the 200 EMA around 1.3464 in the coming hours, this could be considered a buy signal, with targets toward 1.3488. Even if the GBP breaks above this level, it could reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around 1.3532.

Conversely, if the British pound falls below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA, it could continue its technical correction cycle and reach the 4/8 Murray level around 1.3427, and could even find strong support around the lower band of the uptrend channel at approximately 1.3400.

Technically, the British pound has more potential to continue rising in the coming days, so we could buy as long as the price consolidates above the 4/8 Murray level. Then, GBP/USD could reach the 6/8 Murray level around 1.3550 in the short term.

Conversely, a decisive break below the uptrend channel and consolidation below 1.3400 could shift the outlook for the British pound, and we could expect a decline toward the 3/8 Murray level at 1.3366, or GBP/USD could even sink to the 2/8 Murray level around 1.3305—a price level reached on May 18.

The Eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, so if GBP/USD hits resistance levels such as 1.3488 around the 5/8 Murray level or reaches the 6/8 Murray level, this could be seen as an area to open short positions.

Yesterday, the dollar strengthened against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets amid another escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Ongoing strikes and countermeasures create an atmosphere of uncertainty in global markets, forcing investors to seek refuge in traditionally safe assets, such as the US dollar. This trend has been intensifying recently.

An important factor in the dollar's strengthening was the recently released data on US job openings for April. This figure, which rose to 7.618 million from March's 6.887 million, exceeded analysts' expectations. The significant increase in job openings, as measured by JOLTS, indicates the continued strength of the US labor market. Despite some signs of potential slowing, strong labor demand suggests the US economy remains resilient, which in turn supports the dollar.

Today's first half is expected to be busy, with important economic data for the Eurozone, including the May services PMI and the composite PMI. These macroeconomic indicators are crucial because they reflect the state of key sectors of the Eurozone economy and serve as leading indicators of future trends. The services PMI index, for example, covers a wide range of business activities, from tourism to finance, and its dynamics are directly linked to consumer demand and investments. Weak data in the services sector, especially following previous positive signals, could raise concerns about slowing economic growth in the region. The producers' price index (PPI) will also be important, as it is another critical indicator that anticipates changes in consumer price index (CPI) dynamics. If the PPI shows unexpected acceleration in growth, it could intensify concerns about further inflationary pressures, which, paradoxically, could create a negative backdrop for the euro.

As for the pound, the first half of the day is expected to be pivotal for the British economy, with crucial data likely to significantly impact sterling's exchange rate. Market attention will be on the PMI indices for key sectors—specifically, the UK services PMI and the composite PMI, which reflects overall business activity. These indicators are among the most sensitive barometers of economic conditions, and their dynamics enable timely assessments of current trends and forecasts of future developments.

Economists' forecasts, unfortunately, do not inspire optimism. Both indices are expected to remain below the 50-point mark. A value above 50 indicates an acceleration of business activity, while a figure below reflects a slowdown or, worse yet, contraction.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes out significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy would be more suitable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.1635, which may lead to an increase in the euro towards 1.1678 and 1.1698.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.1620, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1579 and 1.1550.

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout of the level 1.3480, which may lead to an increase in the pound towards 1.3510 and 1.3545.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 1.3455, which may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3411 and 1.3370.

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout of the level 160.02, which may lead to an increase in the dollar towards 160.24 and 160.43.
• Sell on a breakout of the level 159.83, which may lead to dollar sell-offs towards 159.60 and 159.39.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1642 when returning below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1616 when returning to this level.

For GBP/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3478 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3447 when returning to this level.

For AUD/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7189 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7167 when returning to this level.

For USD/CAD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3855 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3831 when returning to this level.

The latest drop in Bitcoin could have been triggered by a series of factors that do not contradict the technical picture. For example, the company Strategy announced its first Bitcoin sale in the last six years, totaling $2.5 million. Essentially, Michael Saylor's company sold just 32 coins from the first cryptocurrency between May 26 and May 31. This is a pittance, but it sends a signal to the market: a company that has held to the principle of "never sell Bitcoin" for the past decade has renounced it. The initial sale was minimal, but subsequent sales could be much larger. It's worth noting that the average purchase price of Bitcoin for Strategy is around $78,000. Thus, we can confidently say that all investments in "digital gold," often financed by borrowed funds, are currently unprofitable.

Additionally, the chances of a full resolution to the war in the Middle East have declined again. The market has long awaited optimistic news, but received nothing but empty promises from Trump. Frankly, we do not believe that the failure of geopolitical negotiations triggered Bitcoin's decline. However, the combination of factors (technical conditions, Strategy's Bitcoin sale, a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and geopolitics) may have dealt a heavy blow to "digital gold." We also remind you that in recent weeks, we have consistently highlighted low spot demand and capital outflows from ETFs.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend and a correction against it. The trend structure is identified as bearish, and the CHOCH line remains at the level of $97,900. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to be completed. With no signs of a bullish trend shift, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a sell signal formed in the $79,500-$81,100 range, and on the hourly timeframe, the upward structure broke, providing confirmation. The price has entered the liquidity pool, thus accelerating the decline. This week, new bearish FVGs will likely form, enabling new short positions to be opened.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the 4H Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has transitioned from forming a downward structure to a collapse. The CHOCH line supporting the downward trend is located at $78,000 and may be shifted lower in the coming days. We still see no fundamental basis for Bitcoin's long-term strengthening, and spot demand remains weak. Last week, liquidity was withdrawn from the last local peak, after which a new phase of decline began. Bearish patterns can be used to open new short positions, but the decline is so strong that it is better to utilize the daily timeframe now.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to establish a full downward trend and correction against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of the beginning of a long-term bullish trend. The signal in the near-term bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the area of $79,300 - $81,200, was formed and confirmed on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we are currently oriented towards the continuation of the downward trend, and bearish patterns remain a priority in trading.

Explanations of Illustrations:

• CHOCH: Change of trend structure.
• Liquidity: Stop losses, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG: Fair Value Gap. Prices move quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in the continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG: Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
• OB: Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to secure liquidity for forming their position in the opposite direction.