This week, the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve are set to hold their meetings. What can we expect from the central banks, and can we anticipate a market reaction? Let's break it down in order.

The ECB is 99% likely to keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged, as recent events in the Middle East offer opportunities to resolve the conflict. As the past few weeks have shown, Tehran and Washington are not eager to resume war, which is already a positive sign. The negotiations are challenging and unofficial, but they are better than nothing. Thus, the ECB will likely adopt a wait-and-see position. If the situation in the Middle East does not worsen, there is hope that oil prices will not rise another 1.5-2 times. Consequently, inflation may stop accelerating, and tightening monetary policy may not be necessary.

The US central bank has not signaled any readiness to tighten policy in 2026. The most "hawkish" scenario the FOMC is prepared to implement is not to lower rates this year. However, easing policy is out of the question, as U.S. inflation accelerated by 0.9% year-on-year in March. Therefore, the Fed's stance is likely to be: it is unwise to ease policy, but they cannot afford to tighten it either. Additionally, this will be the last meeting under Jerome Powell's leadership. It is unlikely that the FOMC committee will make drastic moves with a new chairman, Kevin Warsh, set to take over in just 2.5 weeks.

The BoE is also expected to decide to keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged. Currently, markets anticipate that all nine members of the MPC will vote to maintain interest rates. Since only the BoE publishes voting results, this information will help market participants gauge the central bank's true sentiment. It is worth noting that inflation in the UK accelerated by only 0.3% year-on-year in March, and core inflation even slowed. Consequently, the BoE is likely not in the best mood, but the March inflation rate suggests a weak inflation shock due to the war in the Middle East and oil shortages. In my opinion, the BoE is the least likely to raise rates.

Given all of the above, all three banks are likely to make neutral decisions, but the BoE will provide information on the MPC voting results, and we cannot know what rhetoric the central bank heads will adopt.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (as seen in the lower chart), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East improves. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin from the current positions. We have observed a corrective wave; further movement will depend on the market's belief in a successful outcome of negotiations.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one descending wave (presumably wave d). The upward segment of the trend may take on a five-wave form, but for this to happen, the conflict in the Middle East needs to subside, not reignite. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34th figure or slightly below. After that, everything will again depend on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back and often entail changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty regarding the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analyses and trading strategies.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting, and it is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The risks that the Fed has to consider in making its decision appear balanced. On the one hand, inflation remains above target, and the energy crisis stemming from the war in the Middle East could push it even higher. On the other hand, job growth in the US has certainly slowed in recent years, and the unemployment rate is relatively stable, which practically means that the monthly job increase could be close to zero without an increase in unemployment. If this dynamic changes, then it might suggest the need for rate cuts, but not now; futures do not anticipate any changes for at least the next year.

For the dollar, the situation looks increasingly clear. When positive news arises from the Middle East, the dollar weakens, and risk appetite increases. Conversely, when it becomes apparent that negotiations have hit a deadlock again, both the dollar and oil prices rise while demand for risk decreases. The market has clearly demonstrated this mechanism.

We must proceed from the premise that hopes for a successful resolution of the war are becoming increasingly elusive. Washington has not achieved the desired outcome on the battlefield and is pursuing its goals through negotiations. Iran has not lost this war and is not acting from a position of weakness. This situation could last for a long time, and the longer the uncertainty persists, the more pronounced the consequences will be. The energy crisis could simultaneously trigger two effects: rising inflation and, shortly thereafter, a global food crisis, as fertilizer production has sharply slowed due to a lack of natural gas. In the long run, these factors favor the dollar, but in the short term, they do not.

We assume that the resumption of active hostilities under current conditions is unlikely, meaning the dollar cannot rely on this factor. Ongoing tension will prevent the dollar from falling, so it will trade within a narrow range with a tendency to weaken against major currencies. If tensions decrease, the process of dollar weakening will accelerate.

Everyone is thinking about tomorrow, but no one considers the consequences. The global economy is teetering on the edge of a cliff. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the higher the risks of Brent and WTI soaring and the likelihood of a global recession. The movement through this key oil artery of the world has essentially come to a halt.

Dynamic of Tanker Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz

The most vulnerable will suffer the most. Primarily, countries and regions dependent on oil and gas supplies will be affected. This includes the eurozone, where weakness in business activity has become the first alarming sign for the economy. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank sticks to its "hawkish" rhetoric and supposedly does not intend to repeat the mistakes of four years ago. Back then, the Governing Council waited too long to tighten monetary policy in response to rising consumer prices.

Credit Agricole refers to the ECB's militant stance as a "hawkish bluff." Indeed, what is permissible for Jupiter—in our case, the US—cannot be permitted for the bull—the eurozone. Its economy is already suffering from high rates; why drive another nail into its coffin?

Still, the ECB will make an attempt. Bloomberg experts forecast consumer prices in the eurozone to accelerate to 3% in April, the highest level since the onset of the armed conflict in Ukraine. If they continue to sit idly by in such a situation, a retaliation in the form of a CPI surge to double-digit figures will follow very soon.

Dynamics of European Inflation

Thus, the ECB is in a dilemma. However, the markets seem to have made their decision. They expect the deposit rate to remain at 2% following the April Governing Council meeting, followed by "hawkish" comments from Christine Lagarde signaling a tightening of monetary policy in June. This is why EUR/USD is on the rise—thanks to the divergence.

The rally of the main currency pair is also supported by record highs in U.S. stock indices, which place downward pressure on the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the readiness of Congress to vote for the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh contributes to this. For this, the White House had to agree to halt the investigation into Jerome Powell.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart for EUR/USD shows a bounce from fair value at 1.169, with the bulls launching a counterattack. However, an unsuccessful assault on the pivot level of $1.176, or the inability of the euro to consolidate above support at $1.173, would signal selling opportunities.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has dipped slightly, with prices currently below $94.00 per barrel. However, the decline is limited due to concerns regarding global oil supplies.

Donald Trump's decision to cancel the diplomatic visit to Islamabad by his close associates Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, despite the arrival of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Pakistan, underscores the ongoing tension in the region. The deadlock in negotiations, including issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz blockade, continues to keep prices elevated, preventing a deeper correction.

Navigation through this critically important route is significantly hindered by Iranian restrictions, compounded by U.S. naval oversight. Such factors sustain fears of potential supply disruptions. However, a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar limits further price growth for this commodity.

There are also concerns that the spike in energy prices driven by the war will renew inflationary pressures, prompting major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to adopt a firmer stance. In fact, current market prices imply an over 80% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates in the current range at its next meeting, which continues to support the dollar.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop leans toward the bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for oil prices lies upward and any correction is likely to be bought, representing a better price for purchases. However, it would be prudent to wait for a breakout of the 20-day SMA, currently near the round level of $94.00, and for prices to consolidate above these levels before opening new buy positions. It is also worth noting that the oscillators are mixed, with the relative strength index neutral, indicating weakness among the bulls.

Throughout most of the armed conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin outperformed U.S. stock indices; however, in April, it has not kept pace with the S&P 500's rapid rally. Investors are once again excited about artificial intelligence technologies, but cryptocurrencies have their own reasons to boast.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and the S&P 500

In April, capital inflows into specialized exchange-traded funds totaled $2.5 billion, double the March figure. Michael Saylor's strategy resulted in the purchase of Bitcoin worth $3.9 billion over the past week. This marks the largest purchase in at least a year. Institutional investors continue to demonstrate heightened demand for the digital asset, contributing to the rise in BTC/USD quotes.

At the same time, speculators' outlook is changing. For the past few months, their preferred strategy has been to sell during rises to the upper boundary of the medium-term consolidation range of 65,000-75,000. This strategy worked consistently until mid-spring, after which it began to fail. This has led to the liquidation of short positions and the rally of BTC/USD.

The upward movement of Bitcoin is further fueled by rumors of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. Reports suggest that Iran has made a proposal to the United States regarding the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, and a high-ranking Tehran official's visit to Pakistan was rumored to include negotiations with the Americans. Investors hear only what they want to hear and ignore bad news. They are engulfed by FOMO (fear of missing out), which benefits not only the S&P 500 but all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Of course, there is a risk that a bubble is forming in the U.S. stock market. Sooner or later, technological advancements have led to bursts, resulting in declines in American stock indices, most recently during the dot-com crisis. There is a high probability that AI-driven technology companies may follow the same path, which would be catastrophic for BTC/USD.

However, for now, Bitcoin is reaping the rewards from the rising global appetite for risk, the mass liquidation of short positions by speculators, and increased demand for the digital asset from institutional investors. Where will this combination of factors lead cryptocurrency?

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of BTC/USD displays a Double Top pattern. For activation, a decline below the local low near 77,000 is required. If the bulls fail to hold above this level, it will signal a sell opportunity for the cryptocurrency.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed somewhat. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year, but the structure of the trend now looks rather ambiguous.

In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest and smallest wave structures to make short-term forecasts—which is quite sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave. If this is correct, then this structure has already been completed, and the market is currently forming a corrective phase consisting of at least three waves. We have already seen three waves, so in the near term, the market will likely form at least one more corrective wave.

Future developments will depend on geopolitics: whether the correction becomes more complex or a new downward trend segment begins.

EUR/USD gained about 55 basis points despite a complete lack of news. On Monday, there were no updates even on geopolitics.

Recall that last Friday, the market regained optimism after news of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Pakistan. However, by Saturday morning, it became clear that Mr. Araghchi would not meet with U.S. representatives, and the American delegation had not even departed for Islamabad. In other words, another attempt to organize talks between Tehran and Washington failed.

At the same time, various insider reports suggest that informal negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are ongoing—but these are more like exchanges of proposals aimed at eventually leading to formal talks.

Nevertheless, market participants seem to favor this scenario. Indeed, even the appearance of negotiations—offering a chance for a deal and a ceasefire—is preferable to a fragile truce that could collapse into escalation at any moment.

Interestingly, the oil market does not appear to believe in a positive resolution to the Iran-U.S. standoff. The spot price of Brent crude rose today to $107 per barrel and has increased by about $20 over the past two weeks.

At the same time, demand for the U.S. dollar has noticeably declined over the same period. This leads to one conclusion: markets no longer need the dollar as a safe haven, yet they also do not strongly believe in a near-term resolution of the Middle East conflict.

Based on this, EUR/USD may continue to rise, but it is important to remember that three central bank meetings are scheduled for this week.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward trend segment (lower chart) and, in the short term, within a corrective structure.

The corrective wave pattern appears largely complete and could only become more complex and extended if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves. Otherwise, a new downward wave sequence may begin from current levels.

We have already seen a corrective wave; what happens next will depend on the market's belief in a successful outcome of negotiations.

On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur.

I would emphasize that it is better to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than trying to rigidly label every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction never exists. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward the 38.2% level at 1.1666. A sustained move above 1.1745 would allow for further growth toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1824.

The wave structure on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke above six previous highs, while the latest downward wave has not come close to the previous low. The two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently bullish.

In the near term, geopolitical tensions may escalate again, which could strengthen the bears. However, breaking the bullish trend would now require either two consecutive downward waves or a break below the April 6 low.

On Friday, the economic backdrop included two reports: Germany's April business climate index and the U.S. consumer sentiment index. The latter was more important, but neither report had any meaningful impact on market sentiment. Bulls began their advance already in the first half of Friday and were not discouraged even by a stronger-than-expected reading from the University of Michigan index.

On Monday, bullish pressure persisted, while the economic data was limited to Germany's May consumer confidence index. This report was also unimpressive, yet the euro continued to rise throughout most of the day. This suggests that the market is still largely ignoring economic data—especially secondary releases like those seen on Friday and Monday.

In my view, the ongoing upward movement is driven by the continued ceasefire in the Middle East. The dollar is losing its advantage, as markets currently have little need for a safe-haven currency.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. This opens the way for further growth toward the next retracement level at 50.0% (1.1778).

A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. A breakout above 1.1778 would allow traders to expect further gains toward the 38.2% level at 1.1849. No developing divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,768 long positions and closed 12,538 short positions. Over the previous seven weeks, the bulls' overall advantage had disappeared, but the past two weeks indicate that bulls are returning to the market.

The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, compared to 176,000 short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

In the longer term, major players continue to show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—plentiful in recent years—continue to shape investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict is paused but not resolved.

Thus, in the near term, EUR/USD movements will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB policy and economic data, and more on developments related to the conflict involving Iran.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Consumer Confidence Index (06:00 UTC)

On April 27, the economic calendar contains only one minor event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday is expected to remain very limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling opportunities may arise today if the pair rebounds from the 1.1745 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1666. Buying opportunities are recommended if the pair closes above 1.1745, targeting 1.1824.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart, and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

Throughout last week, traders were expecting negotiations between Iran and the United States almost daily. However, instead of talks, they received mostly negative news, pointing more toward the inevitability of renewed conflict in the Middle East than toward a lasting ceasefire. Naturally, Donald Trump will try until the very end to push Iran into a deal on U.S. terms. However, Iran continues to refuse a new round of negotiations as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by U.S. aircraft carriers. Trump is not willing to lift the blockade, and Iran is not willing to negotiate under these conditions—a deadlock.

How long will this situation last before missiles begin flying again in one direction, and then the other? In my view, the answer is obvious: if there are no negotiations, the resumption of conflict is only a matter of time.

Under the current circumstances, traders are left to wait for the price to react to imbalance 13. There are no other clear buying zones at the moment, and I still consider the trend to be bullish. Therefore, I am only interested in buy signals. Notably, there are no bearish patterns at all.

The previous buy signal from imbalance 12 worked out very well, with the euro gaining around 270 points. These positions could have been closed with solid profits or left open, as no sell signals were formed.

It is also worth noting that all of the dollar's growth over the past one and a half to two months has been driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately stepped back, and bulls resumed their advance.

At present, the ceasefire remains fragile but is still holding. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the break of important trend-forming lows. The price movement over the past two months could evolve into a bearish trend if geopolitical conditions continue to deteriorate. However, markets often price in the worst-case scenario in advance, attempting to anticipate the most extreme outcomes.

Thus, I allow for the possibility that traders have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In that case, bears no longer have a clear advantage.

The overall graphical picture is clear at the moment. First, the price did not receive any reaction to the 11 imbalance. Second, the price reacted to the imbalance of 12, forming a bullish signal on a bullish trend. Thirdly, a new bullish imbalance of 13 has been formed, which is a zone of interest for future purchase transactions, as well as a support zone for the European currency.

The news background on Monday was essentially nonexistent, aside from Germany's consumer confidence index, which has remained in negative territory for five years. This report clearly did not hinder the bulls.

At present, the market is once again moving away from the U.S. dollar in favor of the euro, pound, and other currencies. In other words, the issue is not the attractiveness of the euro or pound, but rather the lack of attractiveness of the dollar.

There are still plenty of reasons for bulls to push higher in 2026, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which contributed to the dollar's sharp decline last year—have not changed.

In the coming months, the dollar may occasionally strengthen due to risk aversion, but this would require continuous escalation in the Middle East. I still do not believe in the formation of a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD (i.e., a strengthening dollar trend). The dollar has received temporary support, but what will drive bears in the long term?

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (18:30 UTC)

On April 28, the economic calendar contains only two secondary events. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to remain very limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The information backdrop changed sharply two months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or completed.

Thus, bulls may well continue their advance in the near term—unless geopolitics suddenly shifts toward renewed escalation.

Bulls previously had an opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, and the upward move could continue toward this year's highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which may generate another bullish signal in the near future.

For the euro to rise without obstacles, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward a stable peace—which is not currently the case. However, bears are not gaining additional reasons to attack either.

In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis—and it clearly points to bullish dominance.

Last week, I mentioned that further growth in the pound had certain conditions. However, Friday and Monday have shown that bulls are ready to push higher even without them. In my view, current market behavior indicates one thing: traders are no longer concerned about the conflict in the Middle East or rising oil and gas prices. Previously, the dollar could benefit significantly from these factors, as many traders considered it a "safe-haven currency." But a safe-haven currency is only needed when capital seeks to leave high-risk areas.

The conflict in the Middle East is now in its ninth week. All capital that wanted to leave risky regions and jurisdictions has likely already done so. Therefore, the pound is rising not on its own strength, but because the dollar is weakening again. I discuss the reasons behind the dollar's decline in nearly every article.

The latest rally in the pound began with a "Three Drives Pattern." This means traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, and the trend remains bullish. At present, the ceasefire is quite fragile, and the parties involved have yet to decide whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Talks may resume—but so could the conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz remains under dual pressure, while Tehran and Washington have been unable to agree on the next round of negotiations. As of Monday, nothing has changed for about a week. Both sides verbally express willingness to reach an agreement, but in practice, no real steps are being taken.

The "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle, enabled bulls to take control. Imbalance 18 allowed traders to open long positions, and imbalance 19 may provide another opportunity to do so today. Thus, we could see a third bullish signal within the current impulse this week. Bearish patterns and liquidity grabs are not creating any real discomfort for bulls.

There was no economic news flow on Monday, and no new updates regarding a ceasefire or negotiations from either the U.S. or Iran. Iran believes it has passed the responsibility to the U.S., while the U.S. believes the ball is in Iran's court. The pause continues—at least without active fighting.

In the United States, the broader backdrop still suggests that, in the long term, little can be expected other than further dollar weakness. Even a conflict between Iran and the U.S. does little to change this outlook. Geopolitics briefly revived interest in the dollar's safe-haven status over the past two months, but overall, the long-term situation for the dollar remains challenging.

The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. There have already been four major protests across the U.S. directed personally against Donald Trump, and the potential departure of Jerome Powell could further worsen the situation for the dollar (especially if, under Kevin Warsh, the FOMC adopts a more dovish stance). From an economic perspective, I see no grounds for dollar strength.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)

On April 28, the economic calendar contains only one secondary event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth early on, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a buy signal. Price has taken liquidity from bullish swings dated March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, but bears failed to initiate a meaningful move in either case. This is another positive factor for the pound—traders remain in a bullish mindset.

Thus, under current conditions, despite geopolitical factors, I expect the upward movement to continue. The euro is also likely to keep rising. The target for the pound is the 2026 high. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered a corrective pullback, but a reaction to imbalance 19 may provide traders with a new buy signal.

Bitcoin is trading around $77,829 after reaching the $79,440 level—a level it had previously hit on April 20—and is currently forming a double top pattern.

This pattern signals a trend reversal, so we must be very cautious if BTC consolidates below $77,800 and below the uptrend channel; it could reach $75,000 and might even hit the 200 EMA around $73,550.

Conversely, if Bitcoin consolidates above the 21 SMA and continues trading within the uptrend channel formed since early March, we could expect it to continue rising and even surpass its weekend high above $79,500, potentially reaching the 6/8 Murray level around $81,250.

Given that Bitcoin is showing a positive signal, we could consider the $77,500 area a strong support level, as it is reaching the lower band of the uptrend channel. Hence, we could open long positions with targets at around $81,000. However, we must be very cautious, as a break below this level could trigger a sharp decline in Bitcoin.

If we look at the H4 chart, since April 21, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 5/8 Murray line around $78,125. This scenario could be setting the stage for a strong upward move or a sharp decline in the coming days.

We will see what the target turns out to be, so we must be very careful and keep a close eye on the technical chart in case the price moves below or above this range.

Crude oil is trading around $93.85, reaching the upper band of the downtrend channel that has been forming since early April. The price has been testing the strength of this channel and has been rejected on several occasions.

If crude oil falls below $93.30, and the price consolidates below this zone, it could be considered a negative signal to sell, with targets at $89.80 and the 7/8 Murray level around $87.50. The instrument is expected even to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $75 per barrel.

We expect a sharp decline in crude oil, as it has technically left an unfilled gap around $83.26; this zone could be the target for bears if the price falls below $93.

Conversely, if crude oil consolidates above the downtrend channel and above $95.70, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect it to reach the psychological level of $100.

Technically, the $100 zone could also be a strong resistance level, as it has acted as a strong barrier throughout March and April. Given that the market is overbought and has left an unfilled gap, this 8/8 Murray zone could be seen as a signal to open short positions.

The euro is trading around 1.1739, rebounding from the opening of this week's session after filling a gap and reaching resistance levels around 1.1750.

If the euro breaks out of the downtrend channel and consolidates above 1.1750 in the coming hours, this could be considered a bullish signal, and we could look for opportunities to buy on the pullback with a target at the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840.

Given that EUR/USD is within a downtrend channel formed since April 16, it could resume its downtrend in the coming hours and reach the 4/8 Murray level around 1.1718. It could even reach the lower band of the downtrend channel around 1.1620 and ultimately reach the key support at the 3/8 Murray level.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so we should exercise caution. If the euro consolidates above the 4/8 Murray level, a bullish sequence could be developing, and we could look for buying opportunities if the instrument consolidates above this zone.

A decisive break above the downtrend channel and a consolidation of EUR/USD above that channel could be a positive signal, so we could continue buying in the coming days.

Gold is trading under downward pressure, hovering around $4,693 above the 7/8 Murray line and has been consolidating in this area since April 21.

If gold continues to decline in the coming hours, we could expect it to reach last week's low around $4,766; or, if it breaks below this level, it could drop to the $4,586 area.

Given that the H4 technical chart shows gold is oversold, we could expect consolidation above the 7/8 Murray line in the coming days, so a technical rebound above this zone remains a valid scenario.

If gold breaks above the downtrend channel formed since April 16 and consolidates above the $4,700 level and above the 21 SMA, this could be considered an opportunity to open long positions.

Given that gold is within the downtrend channel, a technical rebound toward $4,700 could still serve as a signal to open short positions; we must monitor the 21-day SMA, as this level could indicate a trend reversal.

A consolidation above the 200 EMA around $4,760 could signal an uptrend, potentially pushing the price up to the April 16 high of $4,880 and even the psychological level of $5,000.

According to Bank of England data, in April British firms expressed worries about future pricing, expecting prices to rise by 4.4% over the next year. This figure is materially above March forecasts, when firms expected price growth of 3.7%. Such a noticeable jump in inflation expectations is directly linked to the current geopolitical situation.

Rising energy prices, driven by the escalation in the Middle East, are exerting substantial pressure on the global economy. Disruptions to oil and other energy supplies undermine normal market mechanisms, forcing firms to build possible price swings into their plans. Higher energy costs, in turn, inevitably feed through into the final prices of goods and services.

Moreover, companies forecast that headline inflation will reach 4% by year-end. This rate is twice the Bank of England's 2% target, which creates a difficult task for the central bank in stabilizing the economy. Managing inflation expectations and containing overall price growth become priority objectives for the regulator amid increasing external pressure.

It is quite possible that, following the next Bank of England meeting, we will learn of planned monetary policy adjustments. The results of the fresh survey will likely be considered by policymakers when they discuss the setting of interest rates at the 30 April meeting.

On wages, the DMP report notes that the war has, so far, had little effect on the labor market. Firms have only marginally raised their pay growth expectations to 3.5% for the coming year, compared with 3.4% previously. According to Bank of England officials, most pay agreements for 2026 have already been settled, with average increases around 3.5%, so, in the near term, the Middle East conflict should not materially affect household incomes. However, there is a risk that a sharp rise in energy prices will play a more important role in wage negotiations later this year and into 2027.

The Bank of England has already concluded that firms are likely to pass at least part of realized or expected cost increases on to consumers, because profit margins have been significantly squeezed. At the same time, companies worry that higher prices will hit demand, especially if their goods and services are not essentials.

As I noted above, the pound sterling remains dominant in the FX market for now.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3555. Only this will allow targeting 1.3585, above which a break will be rather difficult. The most distant target would be the area around 1.3915. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3515. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3480, with a prospect of reaching 1.3445.

Over the past weekend, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, said he was optimistic, believing the bill could pass final approval as early as May of this year and could possibly become law by the start of summer. Such an outcome would bring long-awaited clarity for market participants, potentially opening the doors to a much broader global audience interested in these new financial horizons.

However, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, takes a more cautious view. He rates the probability that the CLARITY Act will be adopted in 2026 at only 50%. Thorn warns that if the bill does not secure approval by mid-May, its chances of passage this year could fall sharply, leaving the crypto industry in limbo.

It is worth noting that recently US Treasury official Scott Bessent has increasingly called for the swift passage of legislation to structure the crypto market. His active stance underlines the importance that public authorities attach to regulating this rapidly evolving sector, with a view to ensuring stability and predictability for all participants.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $79,100, which opens a direct route to $80,900, and from there to $83,100. The most distant target is the high around $85,600, breaching which would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $76,800. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $75,000. The furthest target there would be around $73,100.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,394 opens a direct route to $2,459. The most distant target is the high near $2,575, breaching which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,314. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,228. The furthest target there would be around $2,162.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Trump stressed that cryptocurrency is a large industry, which has in some respects become mainstream. Banks use it, people use it. He added that the US wants to be leaders in AI and in crypto, noting the rising importance of digital assets and AI technologies in the modern economy. He sees these areas not only as new business opportunities but also as a way to strengthen US global competitiveness.

Trump paid particular attention to creating a favorable regulatory environment for the crypto industry. He said that he was committed to ensuring the crypto industry succeeded, emphasizing his support for the sector's development. Clearly, this stance aims to remove uncertainty and create clear rules of the game, allowing innovation to flourish and investors to feel more confident. In this context, Trump voiced strong support for the Clarity bill, which, he said, is designed to resolve issues related to cryptocurrencies.

The US president indicated he is prepared to sign the bill immediately once it passes Congress. Criticizing banks for their potential resistance to the bill, for reasons the banks may have, he promised not to allow their interests to block what he considers an important law for the entire industry.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $79,100, which opens a direct route to $80,900, and from there to $83,100. The most distant target is the high around $85,600, breaching which would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $76,800. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $75,000. The furthest target there would be around $73,100.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,394 opens a direct route to $2,459. The most distant target is the high near $2,575, breaching which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,314. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,228. The furthest target there would be around $2,162.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

The Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Federal Reserve are all expected to hold policy rates steady. Similarly, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are unlikely to move this week. Decisions by these leading financial institutions will materially influence the currency market's outlook.

Central banks are closely monitoring the effects of the escalation in the Middle East because events in the Strait of Hormuz could determine the path of monetary policy in the near term. Geopolitical tension, particularly regarding a key global oil route, has already triggered significant energy market volatility, directly affecting inflation expectations and, consequently, rate decisions. Investors and analysts are attentive to every central bank statement, trying to understand how the evolving geopolitical picture will be incorporated into economic forecasts.

Energy-importing countries face a double hit: a higher cost of living for households and a potential slowdown in industrial production. This will put pressure on governments to find ways to stabilize their economies. However, aggressive policy easing through rate cuts could distort markets and further increase price pressures and budget deficits, which would, in turn, create long-term risks.

Against the backdrop of rising inflation — which, incidentally, has not been as severe as many economists initially feared — capital is likely to flow from riskier assets into traditional safe havens. Continued volatility in energy markets, inflationary pressure, and slowing growth will be the defining trends, requiring measured and timely responses from all market participants. Ultimately, the direction of policy will depend on the resolution of the US–Iran conflict, which is currently in a temporary pause.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers should now think about how to take the 1.1740 level. Only this will allow a test of 1.1762. From there, a move to 1.1791 would be possible, but achieving that without support from major players will be difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1822. In case the instrument falls only to around 1.1715, I expect serious action from large buyers. If there is no one there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1695 or to open long positions from 1.1670.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3555. Only this will allow targeting 1.3585, above which a break will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3915 area. In the event of a decline, bears will try to seize control at 1.3515. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3480, with the prospect of reaching 1.3445.

The test of the 159.30 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

Since there are no U.S. statistical releases scheduled for the second half of the day, market participants should exercise maximum caution. A number of central bank meetings lie ahead, along with various geopolitical developments, which could push the USD/JPY pair in either direction. However, it should be understood that any significant strengthening of the yen will likely be seen by traders as a good opportunity to initiate new USD/JPY buy positions. At the same time, a move toward 160 per dollar will be very difficult to sustain.

Special attention should be paid to market volatility. In conditions of limited fresh information and low trading volumes, price formation becomes more sensitive to speculative sentiment and market "noise," particularly related to developments in the Middle East. Any news, even indirectly unrelated to macroeconomic indicators, may have a disproportionate impact on quotes.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.28 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.73 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.73, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). A rise in the pair today can be expected if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.13 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 159.28 and 159.73 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.13 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.80, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if there is positive news from the Middle East.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.28 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.13 and 158.80 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.

Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3543 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair gained 20 points.

The pound reacted with a temporary decline following weak retail sales data from the Confederation of British Industry. The release of the report, showing a contraction in retail volumes in the United Kingdom, led to a predictable drop in demand for the British currency. Investors and traders interpreted this as confirmation of slowing consumer activity—one of the key indicators of economic health. However, the expected sharp drop in the pound did not occur. This may suggest that the market had already priced in weak data. It is also possible that market participants are factoring in upcoming political events, expected changes in the Bank of England's monetary policy, or are simply waiting for stronger catalysts to trigger a sell-off.

Given that there is no U.S. data scheduled for the second half of the day, the outlook for pound buying can change at any moment. Traders should avoid large positions and be prepared for sharp moves that may contradict the main trend.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3572 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3597 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3597, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Further pound gains today can be expected only if there is positive news from the Middle East.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3547 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 1.3572 and 1.3597 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3547 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3516, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3572 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3547 and 1.3516 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.

Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1730 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair came within a step of the target level at 1.1752.

Data showing a sharp decline in Germany's consumer climate index from GfK had only minimal pressure on the euro. Nevertheless, it is important not to ignore the fact that the euro's sustained growth is overlooking fundamental, economic, and geopolitical issues, meaning the current bullish market could end just as quickly as it began.

Since there are no U.S. statistical releases scheduled for the second half of the day, extreme caution is required in such a fragile market. The lack of major macroeconomic reports from the United States typically increases market volatility, which can lead to sudden reversals at any moment. Traders are strongly advised to remain prudent and avoid FOMO. Instead of aggressive positioning, it may be more appropriate to focus on risk hedging or shorter-term trades.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the 1.1754 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1790. At 1.1790, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can be expected only if there is positive news from the Middle East.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1739 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1754 and 1.1790 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1739 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1707, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1754 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1739 and 1.1707 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.

Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The euro was slightly affected by the latest GfK data, which showed a sharp decline in Germany's consumer climate index. Consumer activity weakened, but later the euro resumed its upward movement. A similar situation occurred with the British pound after weak retail sales data was released.

At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East are causing serious concern, yet traders continue to largely ignore them. The increase in U.S. military presence in the region, especially in the context of a potential new conflict with Iran, creates significant geopolitical risks. Any further escalation in this strategically important region could lead to a sharp rise in demand for the dollar and a sell-off in risk assets.

Given that there is no U.S. data scheduled for the second half of the day, trading in such a thin market should be approached with extreme caution. The absence of major macroeconomic releases from the United States typically makes markets more volatile and less predictable. Under these conditions, without clear price drivers based on economic data, market participants will continue to focus on developments surrounding Iran and the United States.

If strong data emerges, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1762, targeting 1.1791 and 1.1822
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1729, targeting 1.1703 and 1.1673

GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3555, targeting 1.3576 and 1.3596
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3530, targeting 1.3505 and 1.3476

USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 159.40, targeting 159.60 and 159.83
• Sell on a breakout below 159.13, targeting 158.87 and 158.57

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 1.1766, on a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 1.1730, on a return to this level

GBP/USD

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 1.3596, on a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 1.3525, on a return to this level

AUD/USD

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 0.7208, on a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 0.7171, on a return to this level

USD/CAD

• Look to sell after a false breakout above 1.3624, on a return below this level
• Look to buy after a false breakout below 1.3585, on a return to this level

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a range formed since the beginning of the month. The movement follows a strong rebound from the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA), tested in March, which confirms that the long-term uptrend remains intact despite weakening momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47, near the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD shows a near-neutral reading, signaling consolidation rather than a trend reversal.

A drop below the $4700 level is likely to find support near the lower boundary of the range in the $4650–4600 level, where demand may increase. A decisive break below this zone could trigger stronger technical selling and lead to a deeper correction.

At the same time, resistance is located around $4750, followed by approximately $4800 and the $4865–4900 level, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the current range and the 50-day SMA. A breakout above this zone would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the way for a move above the psychological $5000 level.

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to hold above the round $4700 level, facing some difficulty in maintaining upward momentum. According to available information, Iran has presented the United States with an updated proposal that involves restoring the functioning of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the military conflict, while discussions on a nuclear deal are postponed to a later date. Such developments increase expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran and simultaneously weaken the US dollar's position as the key reserve currency, which traditionally supports commodity prices.

The rise in optimistic sentiment is putting pressure on oil prices and reducing inflation risks, thereby maintaining the likelihood of at least one 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in 2026. This factor further weakens the dollar and creates favorable conditions for gold. Nevertheless, the combination of current circumstances restrains market participants from actively increasing long positions in XAU/USD, limiting the potential for significant growth.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense: passage is still significantly restricted due to Iranian control measures and a US naval blockade of ports. Additional pressure on the geopolitical backdrop comes from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement ordering intensified military strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. These factors sustain geopolitical risks, limiting declines in oil prices and the US dollar, which calls for a cautious approach to opening new long positions in gold.

In addition, market participants remain cautious ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting starting Tuesday. Investors expect to receive further signals regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid persistent inflation and resilient US macroeconomic indicators. The outcome of the meeting will play a key role in shaping demand for the dollar. At the same time, developments in US-Iran relations could increase volatility and set the direction for the XAU/USD pair.

On the physical market, signs of support are also evident: in India last week, due to limited supply, gold premiums reached their highest levels in more than two and a half months. In China, premiums rose to the $9–12 per ounce range compared to $3–6 a week earlier, amid recovering demand and increased buying activity. These factors further strengthen the position of the bulls and point to the potential for further growth, where intraday pullbacks are likely to be bought and remain limited.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a range formed since the beginning of the month, barely holding above the $4700 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47, near the neutral 50 mark. The MACD indicator is also close to neutral, signaling consolidation or a potential trend reversal. Below the $4700 support, gold is likely to find support in the $4650–4645 level. Resistance is located around $4750, followed by approximately $4800.

The annual White House Correspondents' Association dinner — traditionally the social event of the year in political Washington — was disrupted. In the middle of the event, attended by Donald Trump and his wife and virtually the entire US administration leadership, an unknown assailant opened fire inside the hotel. Thanks to the swift response of law enforcement, the attacker was detained on the spot. The lone casualty was a US Secret Service agent. A bullet struck his chest, but, according to the president, the agent's life was saved by his body armor.

Instead of expressing the usual concern in such circumstances, Donald Trump used the incident to reinforce his political narrative. Speaking to reporters at the White House, he advanced the theory that assassination attempts are a kind of "certificate of quality" for a national leader. "They try to kill those presidents who have the greatest influence on the country. That happens because we do a lot of work," Trump said. In effect, the president placed himself in the same line as the most consequential figures in American history whose influence provoked equally radical resistance.

Despite the seriousness of the situation, Trump urged citizens to "resolve disagreements peacefully," while praising the Secret Service for "fantastic, brave and fast" work. On his social media Truth Social, he kept an upbeat, almost celebratory tone, calling the evening "amazing" despite the shooting and expressing confidence that law enforcement would quickly determine the shooter's motives. Notably, Trump already vowed to "do it all again," signaling that no threat will force him to give up public events or his accustomed lifestyle.

However, behind this optimism lies a worrying reality: tensions in American society have reached the point where even the most heavily guarded events in the capital are no longer safe. While Trump dons the mantle of a "targeted president," security services are preparing to sharply increase protective measures ahead of the summer's political events. The situation in the Middle East has reached a level of military concentration not seen since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that three carrier strike groups are currently deployed and operating in the same waters:

• USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72)
• USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
• USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77)

This represents the presence of more than 200 modern combat aircraft and over 15,000 military personnel. The US president is betting that such a powerful physical presence will compel Tehran to make the first move. But so far, that "first call" has not come, and the three carriers are effectively guarding a closed strait. Despite enormous US pressure, Iran appears to be the beneficiary. The current "fragile ceasefire" favors Tehran more than anyone else:

• since April 8, Iranian territory has not been subjected to massive strikes;
• control over the Strait of Hormuz is a lever of pressure on the global economy.

Tehran gains political advantages without suffering material losses, while strategically wearing down the US through the exhausting deployment of its fleet. The center of gravity of the conflict has shifted: the world now debates not how many plants Iran has lost but how many trillions the global economy will lose if the blockade continues.

Why would Iran want peace talks?

Yet it seems even this uncertain situation can sustain optimism on Wall Street. On the one hand, the S&P 500 is pushing to new record highs, and Bitcoin has recovered to two-month peaks. On the other hand, everyone understands that hostilities could resume at any second. Oil remains the market's "shadow king": even a rapid agreement that pushes the price to $80 per barrel would force the Federal Reserve, the ECB and other major central banks to fear secondary inflation shocks. Next week promises to be the busiest of 2026 — a marathon of central bank meetings is scheduled, five sessions that will determine whether regulators are ready to "tolerate" inflation in order to support growth.

But the longer destabilization in the Persian Gulf continues, the more the global economy's buffer of resilience erodes. We are witnessing not just higher prices but the systemic dismantling of industrial potential in key importing countries, most of which are hostile to Tehran. This process triggers a destructive domino effect in financial markets:

• tightened financial conditions and pressure on equities;
• destabilization of the bond market, especially long-dated debt;
• a refinancing crisis forcing governments and corporations to fight for survival amid liquidity shortages.

Perhaps the most damaging blow Iran has dealt is to Washington's political prestige. For decades, Gulf monarchies "bought" security from the US, believing American bases and aircraft carriers guaranteed protection from any attack. Iran has destroyed that illusion. Ignoring the "unwritten rules" and delivering a powerful asymmetric strike on regional infrastructure have left US allies with an awkward question: "What did they spend billions on?" If three US carriers cannot ensure tankers' free passage, the old security architecture is dead. This leads to the fragmentation of alliances — NATO, as once known, no longer exists; each regional actor must now fend for itself.

Iran's president has already set conditions: there will be no talks until the US lifts all obstacles, including the naval blockade. By prolonging the conflict, Iran gains several indirect but critically important advantages:

• the bulk of US forces are tied up in the Gulf;
• the world pays an "insurance premium" for risk in the region;
• global trade rules are being reshaped in favor of those who can control risk;
• groups loyal to Tehran become key local regulators of stability.

The end of the era of cheap reserves?

The ninth week of the Hormuz blockade confirmed traders' worst fears: the loss of a billion barrels of oil has become an unavoidable reality. That volume is twice the size of all emergency reserves the largest economies released to the market in an attempt to douse the fire at the end of February. While strategic stocks allowed authorities to maintain a facade of stability, the "safety buffer" is being depleted at an alarming rate. Where petrochemical giants in Asia once absorbed the shock, the crisis is now spilling over into the everyday lives of Western consumers. These are no longer just figures in reports — they represent forced adaptation, when the world consumes less simply because it can no longer afford more.

The "wave effect" has hit sectors that ensure global mobility the hardest. Aviation, barely recovered from past crises, is grounded again:

• Lufthansa has removed 20,000 flights from its summer schedule;
• KLM is canceling dozens of flights due to prohibitive jet fuel costs;
• Asian carriers such as Air New Zealand have already cut route networks, affecting tens of thousands of passengers.

But the real threat lies in the middle-distillates segment. Diesel fuel, the lifeblood of global logistics, has become scarce. In Europe, diesel prices are matching 2022 records, exceeding $200 per barrel. In India, fleet owners are preparing for enforced rationing. Germany has already halved its growth forecasts, and the IMF has downgraded global estimates, naming the war in Iran as the main reason. Strategists warn that when the crisis finally paralyzes diesel transport, everyone will feel it — from construction sites to supermarket shelves.

"If the strait is not opened within three months, the situation will evolve into a macroeconomic problem — the world will be on the brink of a recession," says Frederic Lasser, head of research at Gunvor. The European Central Bank models scenarios in which Brent crude soars to $145 per barrel, and analysts at FGE NexantECA do not rule out a jump to $154 this quarter. In the most extreme models, where only price can balance collapsed supply, a barrel could reach surreal levels of $250 or even $300. Against that backdrop, the current $105 looks like a calm before the real storm.

Fuel deadlock — America is no exception

Even the United States, despite vast domestic resources, is beginning to feel the chill of the energy crisis. United Airlines has already trimmed its capacity growth plans by 5%, forecasting stagnation through the end of 2026. Consumer reaction is even more telling: Barclays Plc data show that when pump prices exceed $4 per gallon, US gasoline consumption falls by 5%. This is the first clear signal that "demand destruction" has reached the very heart of the American economy. Global regulators tried to buy time by releasing an unprecedented 400 million barrels from reserves. But that "analgesic" effect is wearing off. As Russell Hardy of Vitol Group put it, the world "has borrowed oil from the future," and now it must pay that debt with a severe recession.

At the same time, Washington is taking steps against Iran — from canceling visas for Iranians to freezing $344 million in cryptocurrency linked to Iranian wallets. Against this worrying backdrop, a significant personnel development occurred in Washington: the Department of Justice dropped the investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. That reduces some political pressure within the financial system, allowing the regulator to focus on fighting inflation without the shadow of legal battles.

And Wall Street, despite the war's shadow, keeps celebrating the tech revolution. Nvidia's shares closed at a record high, pushing the company's market cap above an astonishing $5 trillion. The US stock market shows remarkable resilience, as if trying to filter out Middle East headlines. Still, the market faces a "parade of giants" this week:

• Tuesday — Novartis, Barclays, Spotify, Coca-Cola, American Tower, Booking, Starbucks, Visa, Robinhood, T-Mobile US
• Wednesday — UBS, Yum! Brands, AbbVie, Biogen, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, QUALCOMM, Amazon, eBay, Ford
• Thursday — Cigna, Merck & Company, Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Amgen, Reddit, Rivian, Roblox, Roku, Twilio, Apple
• Friday — Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Dominion Energy, Moderna

If tech leaders confirm their strength, the market may continue to ignore geopolitics for some time, driving the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new highs. But if results from Alphabet or Microsoft disappoint investors, the "war premium" and high Fed rates will instantly dominate the narrative, turning the recent gains into an unwarranted euphoria.

27 April

27 April, 04:30 / China / Total industrial profit (Mar) / prev.: 0.6% / actual: 15.2% / forecast: 18.0% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down China's industrial sector posted a powerful start to 2026: corporate profits jumped 15.2% year-on-year — the best start to a year since 2018 (excluding the anomalous post-pandemic 2021). The private sector deserves special attention, with profits surging 37.2%, and high-tech manufacturing — computers and electronics — showing a phenomenal 200% profit increase. Although the data were collected before the main peak of oil shocks from the Middle East conflict, they confirm strong underlying demand. If the March reading reaches the forecast 18.0%, this would strengthen the yuan and push Brent prices higher.

27 April, 08:00 / Japan / Leading Economic Index (Feb) / prev.: 110.5 / actual: 112.1 / forecast: 112.4 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's leading economic index rose to 112.1 in February — the highest since August 2022. The positive momentum is supported by a resilient labour market:

• unemployment fell to 2.6%
• consumer confidence reached 2019 levels Inflation concerns have temporarily eased due to large government support measures from Tokyo. If the final reading reaches the forecast 112.4, it will confirm optimistic prospects for the Japanese economy and strengthen the yen.

27 April, 09:00 / Germany / GfK consumer climate (May, preliminary) / prev.: -24.8 / actual: -28.0 / forecast: -29.5 / EUR/USD – up

German consumers are sinking into deep gloom — the GfK index fell to -28 in April. Households seriously fear that the conflict with Iran will trigger uncontrolled rises in energy prices and finally bury hopes of a recovery. Income expectations are negative (-6.3), and purchasing propensity keeps declining. Savings propensity remains high, indicating tight belt behaviour. Despite the bleak backdrop, if the indicator comes in better than the extreme forecast of -29.5, it could prompt a technical strengthening of the euro.

27 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / CBI retail sales balance (Apr) / prev.: -43 / actual: -52 / forecast: -48 / GBP/USD – up

UK retail signals real distress. The CBI retail sales balance plunged to -50 in March — a level comparable to early 2020 lockdowns. This result was much worse than market expectations and historical norms. Consumers have almost stopped spending on non-essentials amid economic uncertainty. If April does not show a rebound and stays near the forecast -48, this will create volatility and may trigger short covering that could strengthen the pound.

27 April, 17:30 / USA / Texas Manufacturing Business Activity Index (Apr) / prev.: 0.2 / actual: -0.2 / forecast: -0.8 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

Manufacturing activity in Texas essentially stalled at -0.2 in March 2026. A worrying signal was the jump in the uncertainty index to a one-year high (26.0). Hiring has practically stopped, and working hours are falling. Although manufacturers still hope for improvement over the next six months, current stagnation and slowing wage growth weigh on the sector. If the April index falls to the forecast -0.8, it would weaken the dollar.

28 April

28 April, 02:01 / United Kingdom / Retail price inflation (Apr) / prev.: 1.1% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 1.5% / GBP/USD – up

UK retail price inflation rose moderately to 1.2% year-on-year in March 2026. Although below the market forecast of 1.3%, it marks an uptick from February's 1.1%. The Middle East conflict is beginning to pressure supply chains and push up goods prices. Food price inflation cooled slightly to 3.4% in March. Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium noted retailers are trying to soften the blow via supplier measures, but further price rises are expected from external shocks. If the March reading reaches the forecast 1.5%, the pound would likely strengthen.

28 April / Japan / Job?to?applicant ratio (Mar) / prev.: 1.18 / actual: 1.19 / forecast: 1.18 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's labour market remains resilient: the jobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 1.19 in February 2026, well above the long-term average (0.92), indicating a persistent labour shortage and supporting domestic consumption. The historic context shows values remain high versus the crisis lows of 2009. This dynamic is positive for the yen.

28 April, 06:00, 09:30 / Japan / Bank of Japan interest rate decision, press conference / prev.: 0.75% / actual: 0.75% / forecast: 0.75% / USD/JPY – volatile

At its March meeting, the BoJ kept the short-term policy rate at 0.75% — the highest since 1995. The decision was passed by majority (8–1), with Hajime Takata voting for a more aggressive move to 1%. The regulator aligned its stance cautiously with the Fed, noting a moderate domestic recovery. However, escalation in the Middle East remains the key risk. The board said it stands ready to tighten further if inflationary and economic projections materialize. The uncertainty around the future monetary trajectory amid rising oil prices will keep the yen volatile.

28 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Median inflation expectations (Mar) / prev.: 2.6% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 2.9% / EUR/USD – up

Median one-year inflation expectations in the eurozone eased to 2.5% — a low since autumn 2024. Three-year expectations also adjusted to 2.5%, while five-year expectations remain stable. Despite the cooling of short-term expectations, consumers expect spending to rise to 3.5%, outpacing expected nominal income growth (1.2%). The economic backdrop is less pessimistic, and unemployment forecasts eased to 10.8%. If expectations swing back to the forecast 2.9% due to the energy crisis, the euro would strengthen.

28 April, 15:15 / USA / ADP private sector employment change (weekly) / prev.: 40.25k / actual: 54.75k / forecast: — / USDX – volatile

Private sector hiring in the US recorded a new historical run rate in ADP data: on average, 54,750 jobs per week — the fifth consecutive week of improvement, highlighting exceptional labour market strength in 2026. The sizable acceleration from 40.25k underscores the economy's adaptability. This strong dynamic, lacking a clear market consensus, will keep the dollar index highly volatile.

28 April, 16:00 / USA / S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (Feb) / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 1.0% / USDX – down

Year-on-year house price growth in the US slowed to 1.2% in January 2026 — the weakest reading since July 2023. The housing market continues to cool:

* price growth has lagged consumer inflation for eight consecutive months

* real housing affordability is declining

Despite local gains (New York +4.9%, Chicago +4.6%), the national trend is stagnation. If February falls to the forecast 1.0%, the dollar would weaken.

28 April, 17:00 / US / Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr) / prev.: 91.0 / actual: 91.8 / forecast: 89.5 / USDX – down

US consumer confidence rose to 91.8 in April, beating expectations. Despite improved labour and business conditions assessments, the index remains below the 20-year average (93). In 2026, rising household confidence often signals a higher risk appetite, prompting currency sales into stocks. If the final reading drops to 89.5 or below, it would weaken the dollar.

28 April, 17:00 / USA / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) / prev.: -10 / actual: 0 / forecast: -4 / USDX – down

Manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed district came out of contraction in March, reaching 0 — the first non-negative reading in a year despite high energy costs from the Middle East war. The improvement was driven by a recovery in new orders (+4) and reduced layoffs. However, expected shipments growth is slowing. If the April index settles at the forecast -4, the dollar would weaken.

28 April, 23:30 / US / API crude oil stocks (weekly) / prev.: 6.1 mln bbl / actual: -4.4 mln bbl / forecast: — / Brent – volatile

API data showed a sharp drawdown in US crude inventories of 4.4 million barrels for the week. Gasoline and distillate stocks also plunged (-5.16 mln and -4.59 mln, respectively) — the largest declines in six months. Such deep fuel inventory draws amid geopolitical uncertainty add volatility to Brent.

29 April

29 April, 04:30 / Australia / Headline CPI (Mar) / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 4.7% / AUD/USD – up

Australia's headline inflation slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in February 2026, below expectations. The decline was driven by a 7.2% fall in fuel prices before the active phase of the Middle East conflict and slower rises in education and communications costs. Housing inflation remains dangerously high (+7.3%), keeping the overall rate above the RBA target (2–3%). If March inflation jumps to the forecast 4.7% amid fresh energy shocks, the Australian dollar would strengthen.

29 April, 08:00 / Japan / Housing construction volume (Mar) / prev.: -0.4% / actual: -4.9% / forecast: -28.5% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's housing construction volume fell 4.9% year-on-year in February 2026, notably worse than January's -0.4%. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest drop since last November amid rising material costs and weak demand. Declines were broad:

• housing for sale -8.8%
• "two-by-four" homes -7.7%
• owner-occupied housing -4.7% (vs. +6.6% a month earlier)
• Although the result was far better than the catastrophic forecast of -28.5%, the sector's weakness weighs on the yen.

29 April, 08:00 / Japan / Construction orders (Mar) / prev.: 5.7% / actual: 42.7% / forecast: 33.0% / USD/JPY – up

New construction orders in Japan surged 42.7% year-on-year in February 2026, massively exceeding the long-term average (3.08%) and market expectations. This spike likely reflects large infrastructure or commercial projects. Despite the overall economic context, the oversized beat on orders combined with other factors contributes to yen weakness.

29 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI, Apr) / prev.: 98.2 / actual: 96.6 / forecast: 95.5 / EUR/USD – down

The eurozone ESI fell to 96.6 in March 2026. The main driver of pessimism was the Middle East conflict, pushing inflation fears to the highest since July 2022. Consumer confidence plunged to -16.3, and retailers' sentiment worsened to -7.2. While manufacturing shows slight improvement, firms' pricing intentions jumped 7.4 points to 19.7, signalling renewed cost pressure. Regionally, the steepest ESI declines were in France and Spain; Germany remained relatively stable. The drop in overall economic confidence pressures the euro.

29 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Consumer expectations on price dynamics (Apr) / prev.: 26.2 / actual: 43.4 / forecast: 48.0 / EUR/USD – up

Consumers' expectations for price dynamics over the next 12 months in March soared to 43.4 — the highest since July 2022 and nearly double the historical average (24.55). The sharp rise from February's 26.2 reflects a reaction to geopolitical instability and rising cost of living. This surge increases pressure on the ECB to keep policy tight, which supports the euro.

29 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Industrial confidence (Apr) / prev.: -7.2 / actual: -7.0 / forecast: -8.0 / EUR/USD – down

Industrial confidence edged up to -7.0 in March 2026, beating forecasts. Producers' optimism is supported by improved order books (including export orders) and past output volumes. However, optimism is offset by weak production expectations and sharply higher pricing intentions. Three-year high pricing intentions reflect cost pressures from the Middle East conflict. The mix of weak output prospects and high input inflation weighs on the euro.

29 April, 15:00 / Germany / Headline CPI (Apr) / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 2.7% / forecast: 3.0% / EUR/USD – up

German consumer inflation accelerated to 2.7% year-on-year in March 2026, the highest since early 2024. The main trigger was the energy shock:

• energy prices +7.2%
• fuel oil +44.4%
• motor fuel +20%

Services inflation rose to 3.2% amid higher social services and transport costs. Food dynamics were mixed: overall food inflation slowed to 0.9% due to cheaper oils (-17.6%), while confectionery prices rose 6.1%. Core inflation fell to 2.3%. A faster rise in the headline CPI would strengthen the euro.

29 April, 15:30 / US / Building permits (Feb) / prev.: 1.455 mln / actual: 1.386 mln / forecast: 1.360 mln / USDX – down

US building permits fell 4.7% year-on-year to 1.386 million in January 2026, the lowest since August last year.

• The main hit was in multi-family permits (-12.4%)
• Single-family permits dipped slightly (-0.6%)
• Regional weakness was pronounced in the West (-13.8%) and Northeast (-8.4%), partially offset by Midwest gains (+7.6%). Despite numbers beating pessimistic forecasts, the sector slowdown weighs on the dollar.

29 April, 15:30 / US / Durable goods orders (Feb) / prev.: -0.5% / actual: -1.4% / forecast: 0.5% / USDX – up

New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% year-on-year to $315.5 billion in February 2026 — the third consecutive monthly decline, driven mainly by:

• weakness in transportation (-5.4%)
• a collapse in non-defense aircraft orders (-28.6%)
• Excluding transportation, orders for primary metals and machinery rose 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively. The gap between weak actuals and optimistic analyst forecasts (+0.5%) creates market tension and could temporarily strengthen the dollar.

29 April, 15:30 / US / Housing starts (Feb) / prev.: 4.8% / actual: 7.2% / forecast: -5.2% / USDX – down

US housing starts jumped 7.2% year-on-year to 1.487 million in January 2026, far exceeding forecasts of a steep sector decline. The growth rate greatly outpaced the long-run average (0.32%), confirming surprising resilience in residential construction and boosting risk appetite, which weakens the dollar.

29 April, 16:45, 17:30 / Canada / Bank of Canada rate decision, press conference / prev.: 2.25% / actual: 2.25% / forecast: 2.25% / USD/CAD – volatile

The Bank of Canada kept the policy rate at 2.25% at its March meeting, acknowledging a GDP slowdown (-0.6% q/q in Q4) and warning that the Middle East war creates critical uncertainty for energy prices. The Governing Council noted inflation may rise in the coming months due to logistics costs, leaving policy options open. Combined with geopolitical risk, this will keep the Canadian dollar highly volatile.

29 April, 17:30 / USA / EIA crude oil inventories (weekly) / prev.: -0.913 mln bbl / actual: 1.925 mln bbl / forecast: -2.825 mln bbl / Brent – up

EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US crude stocks of 1.925 million barrels, versus expectations of a large draw. The rise was supported by higher net crude imports (+1.21 mln b/d) and a small build at Cushing. Refinery activity eased, and utilisation fell 0.5 pp. However, the report revealed a deep deficit in refined products: gasoline and distillate stocks plunged by 4.6 mln and 3.4 mln barrels respectively, well beyond forecasts. Severe depletion of fuel inventories amid geopolitical risk will support higher Brent prices.

29 April, 21:00, 21:30 / US / Federal Reserve interest rate decision, press conference / prev.: 3.75% / actual: 3.75% / forecast: 3.75% / USDX – volatile

The Fed kept the policy range at 3.5%–3.75% at its March meeting. The FOMC remains cautious: the prolonged Middle East conflict exerts sustained upward pressure on energy costs and risks second-round inflation. While the committee left room for one cut later this year, some members do not rule out further tightening if inflation remains above target. Recognition of growing risks to employment and prices amid the geopolitical crisis will keep the dollar index volatile.

27 April, 20:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Isabel Schnabel (ECB Executive Board) / EUR/USD 28 April, 09:30 / Japan / Speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda / USD/JPY 28 April, 21:30 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD 29 April, 17:30 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem / USD/CAD 29 April, 18:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD 29 April, 21:30 / USA / Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell / USDX

Senior central bank speakers are scheduled for these days. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may signal future policy paths.

Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, 118 S&P 500 stocks have entered correction territory — down 10% or more. Those include companies exposed to commodity prices, whether energy or aluminum. Conversely, 82 stocks are up 10% or more, and most of them are tied to artificial intelligence. Exclude the Magnificent Seven from the index's market cap and the broad index's value would effectively fall.

Performance of US equity indices

The equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 is moving roughly as slowly as the global MSCI ex-US. Yet, in absolute terms, the broad index has gained about 4% since the conflict began, and the Nasdaq Composite is up about 8%.

Thus, US exceptionalism is the product of a handful of companies tied to AI. The relevant question is whether an AI bubble is forming — not why equities are rising during a fragile ceasefire.

Bank of America warns that bubble risks are material. We are seeing a pattern that has echoes of the dot?com crisis. The Nasdaq 100 has risen in 14 of the last 16 trading days alongside rising realized volatility — an anomaly. Volatility usually falls during a bullish market.

Dynamics of forward P/E

Investors have embraced sharply lower fundamental valuations in the tech sector recently, including lower forward P/Es, and impressive corporate earnings. Blockbuster profit and revenue guidance from Intel, for example, sent not only its shares up 24% but helped lift the entire market.

The week to May 1 will be decisive. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms will report. Together these companies are worth about $16 trillion, roughly a quarter of the S&P 500's market cap. If the tech giants' results fail to justify the index's record highs, the market could face a wave of selling.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has broken out of a congestion zone and consolidated above fair value at 7,110, which now serves as key support. A confident break above the pivot at 7,165 would increase the odds of a continued rally and justify adding to existing long positions in the broad index.