Although Canada produces enough oil and gas to be much less dependent on the energy market crisis, its economy is still being held back in terms of growth, and the problems will only increase. The share of Canadian exports to the US is falling because higher tariffs have not been reduced, and whereas in 2024 it accounted for 76% of total exports, by February 2026 it was already 66%.

Exports are being redirected to other countries, mainly to Europe, however, Europe risks suffering from constrained energy supplies more than most countries, which will predictably lead to a reduction in consumer demand, and therefore to a decline in imports from Canada. There are no other open markets, and as for Canada's own domestic demand, its potential is quite limited and subject to fluctuations. In Q4 Canada's GDP grew by only 0.7% year on year, which is the weakest reading since Q1 2021, and the forecast for Q1 2026 is also rather pessimistic. The seasonally adjusted Ivey Business Activity Index collapsed in March from a fairly high 56.6 points to 49.7 points, that is, into contraction territory. Perhaps the March jobs report, which will be released on Friday, will add a bit of optimism, however, if it disappoints expectations, then, alongside the decline in business activity, exports, and weak consumer demand, it will pose a direct threat of a recession.

Speculative positioning in the Canadian dollar has shifted from neutral to bearish, amounting to -2.35 billion, the weekly change is -2.23 billion, and the implied price is moving higher.

A week earlier we set a target of 1.4139, and we are still maintaining that forecast, even despite the start of the truce in the Gulf. We proceed from the assumption that even if the truce holds, and even if talks begin, the probability that the parties will not be able to reach an agreement remains very high, and therefore Iran will cling to the trump card of closing the strait until the last moment, which will automatically stretch the process of exiting the crisis over many months. Support is at 1.3730/50, a decline to that level is unlikely and could occur only in the case of a real, not merely verbal, peace process in the Gulf.

Yesterday, equity markets closed on a high note: the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 2.80%, and the Dow Jones advanced by 2.85%. Optimism was driven by hopes of a possible de-escalation between the United States and Iran, which investors expected could reduce risks to energy supplies and support the global economy.

Today, the picture changed: futures on US and European indices declined, while oil prices rose. The trigger was Tehran's statement that several terms of the agreement had been violated, which increased uncertainty and prompted investors to lock in profits and reduce risk exposure. At the same time, the rebound in oil signals persistent concerns that regional tensions could affect crude production and transport. Follow the link for more details.

US stock indices extend rally

The worst appears to be behind us: US equity indices jumped sharply on news of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. About 400 of the 500 S&P 500 constituents closed in the green; only the energy sector lagged, reacting nervously to moves in Brent and WTI. The VIX fell substantially as investors again embraced a de-escalation narrative and sold fear faster than usual.

The S&P 500 rally, the longest since September, was driven not only by headlines but also by rapid short covering by hedge funds. Historical parallels are being drawn to the 1990s: after de-escalation and a drop in oil, the index rallied strongly. If the conflict indeed moves toward peace, US equities could have scope to extend their bullish run. Follow the link for more details.

US political tensions rise as Senate moves to constrain Trump

Next week, the US Senate will again attempt to pass a resolution aimed at limiting further actions by Donald Trump without Congressional approval. Meanwhile, rising inflation in the US and a higher Fed funds rate have global implications: a large share of many countries' debt remains dollar-denominated, and the number of states facing debt distress is growing.

As for Iran, the negotiating picture is far from successful. Experts describe US and Iranian proposals as essentially mutually exclusive "manifestos of capitulation." Tehran insists on guarantees, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and transit fees, while Washington demands dismantling key nuclear programs, placing uranium under IAEA control, and ending missile activities and support for proxy groups. Against this backdrop, hours before his ultimatum expired, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. Follow the link for more details.

The test of the 159.04 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Important U.S. macroeconomic data will be released shortly, helping to assess the current state and development of the American economy. Special attention should be paid to the change in U.S. GDP for Q4 2025. These quarterly data provide a broader perspective on economic growth. Recall that after a 4.4% rise in Q3, U.S. GDP grew only 0.7% in Q4. Today, the final estimate of growth will be published. Positive GDP dynamics indicate rising economic activity, increased production and consumption, which signals a healthy and growing economy. Good GDP data will support dollar strength against the yen.

Separate attention will be given to the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indicator. PCE data, especially the Core PCE component excluding volatile food and energy prices, play a key role in shaping Federal Reserve monetary policy. Taken together, these indicators provide a comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy.

For intraday trading, I will primarily rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry level around 159.07 (green line on the chart) with a target of 159.49 (thicker green line). Around 159.49, I will exit long positions and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Dollar gains are likely if U.S. data is strong.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 158.88 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Expected targets are 159.07 and 159.49.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breach of 158.88 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 158.51, where I will exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.07 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expected targets are 158.88 and 158.51.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – pay attention to overbought and oversold zones when entering trades

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3382 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the pair did not actually decline afterward.

The absence of important data from the UK allowed the pound to gain slightly against the U.S. dollar. Market conditions remain relatively uncertain, as investors are primarily focused on macroeconomic data from other regions, especially the United States. Despite some positive momentum, the British currency remains under pressure from expectations regarding future geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The U.S. dollar, in turn, shows mixed dynamics. On one hand, anticipation of key U.S. releases such as GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index supports optimism. On the other hand, the absence of clear negative news on Iran slightly weakens the dollar.

As previously noted, key macroeconomic indicators are upcoming, which will allow assessment of the current state and dynamics of the U.S. economy. First in line are weekly initial jobless claims. This indicator, tracked weekly, is highly sensitive to labor market changes. A sharp rise in claims could signal accelerating layoffs and deteriorating employment conditions. Next, we will consider the U.S. GDP change for Q4 2025. These quarterly data provide a broader perspective on economic growth. Positive GDP growth reflects expanding economic activity.

Special attention will be given to the U.S. Core PCE index. This measure is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, as it covers a wider range of goods and services than the Consumer Price Index and accounts for shifts in consumer preferences.

For intraday trading, I will rely primarily on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry level around 1.3417 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3448 (thicker green line). Around 1.3448, I will exit long positions and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Pound gains today are expected within a bullish market. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3395 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Expected targets are 1.3417 and 1.3448.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after it breaches 1.3395 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 1.3356, where I will exit and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return if U.S. data is strong.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3417 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expected targets are 1.3395 and 1.3356.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – pay attention to overbought and oversold zones when entering trades

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1672 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 7 points.

The decline in volatility and trading volumes in the currency market was driven by the lack of significant data from the Eurozone and new geopolitical signals. After yesterday's sharp surge, stagnation has set in: major currency pairs are showing only minor fluctuations, and traders, lacking new drivers for decision-making, are adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. Under such conditions, EUR/USD is also trading within a narrow range, reacting only to slight changes in sentiment.

Next, attention will focus on revised U.S. GDP data for Q4 2025, as well as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The analytical block will conclude with reports on changes in U.S. consumer spending and personal income. The release of these reports has significant potential to shift sentiment in global financial markets. In particular, updated GDP figures will provide a comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy at the end of last year. The pace of GDP growth—whether accelerating or slowing—will directly influence expectations for future Federal Reserve actions. The PCE index is equally important, as it is the Fed's key measure of inflationary pressure. The inflation level reflected in PCE will be a decisive factor in interest rate decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases are possible upon reaching the 1.1689 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1717. At 1.1717, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after very weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1670 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.1689 and 1.1717 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1670 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1639, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if strong U.S. data is released.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1689 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1639 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The clear lack of important data from the Eurozone and the UK led to lower volatility. Traders, lacking new drivers for decision-making, preferred to take a wait-and-see approach. This situation is expected to persist until key U.S. data is released.

In the second half of the day, attention will turn to the U.S. GDP change for Q4 2025 and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. These releases have the potential to significantly impact the currency market. Particular focus will be on GDP, which provides a comprehensive assessment of the U.S. economy at the end of last year. Whether growth accelerates or slows will directly influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The core PCE index will be equally important. This indicator is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, as it excludes volatile components such as food and energy. The inflation level reflected in PCE will be a key factor in shaping the regulator's next interest rate decisions. However, it is important to note that the data is for February, so strong market movements are unlikely.

Final data on changes in personal income and spending will add further insight into consumer activity. Rising incomes and a willingness to spend are key drivers of domestic demand and, consequently, economic growth. Strong figures will support the U.S. dollar.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1685, targeting 1.1720 and 1.1745
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1655, targeting 1.1620 and 1.1590

GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3415, targeting 1.3442 and 1.3476
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3390, targeting 1.3370 and 1.3340

USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 159.09, targeting 159.30 and 159.59
• Sell on a breakout below 158.85, targeting 158.55 and 158.25

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Look for sells after a false breakout above 1.1685 and a return below this level
• Look for buys after a false breakout below 1.1654 and a return to this level

GBP/USD

• Look for sells after a false breakout above 1.3415 and a return below this level
• Look for buys after a false breakout below 1.3377 and a return to this level

AUD/USD

• Look for sells after a false breakout above 0.7052 and a return below this level
• Look for buys after a false breakout below 0.7018 and a return to this level

USD/CAD

• Look for sells after a false breakout above 1.3863 and a return below this level
• Look for buys after a false breakout below 1.3839 and a return to this level

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The monthly consumer confidence index showed solid growth at the end of 2025, but since January it has been slowing, and in February it is expected to rise by no more than 0.3% month-on-month.

It is worth noting that the slowdown began even before the outbreak of the Gulf conflict. This means that as early as March, consumers will face a sharp increase in fuel costs, which will further reduce consumer confidence.

The obvious solution would be reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming the transit of oil and gas from the region. The announced ceasefire largely addresses this issue, but it will take months to restore the damaged infrastructure—even in an optimistic scenario. As for the pessimistic one, it may well prevail. Iran has once again suspended transit after allowing only four tankers through, as Israel continues its bombardment of Lebanon. U.S. representatives state that halting attacks on Lebanon is not part of the agreement. The situation is escalating again, and it remains unclear whether the next developments will support de-escalation or a renewed intensification of the conflict.

Net long positions on the Australian dollar increased by $0.67 billion over the reporting week to $5.62 billion. The Australian dollar remains the only currency maintaining a stable bullish positioning against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the estimated price is below its long-term average, suggesting a likely decline in the short term.

A week earlier, we assumed that AUD/USD, under the threat of recession amid escalating conflict, would continue moving downward toward the 0.6700–0.6710 level. The ceasefire triggered a surge of optimism, so a pullback upward appears justified. However, it is important not to forget that the recession risk has not disappeared. If the start of negotiations between the United States and Iran is confirmed, along with commitment to the ceasefire, AUD/USD may stage another short-term rally toward 0.7190. However, the chances of updating the local high remain low. Any slowdown in peace negotiations—or especially a breakdown of the ceasefire—will increase pressure on the Aussie, sending it back onto a downward trajectory.

On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) remained under pressure, although the price is holding above the round $4,700 level, which has helped halt the decline that began from a three-week high.

Skepticism about the reliability of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is providing some support to the U.S. dollar and, accordingly, weighing on gold. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's relatively moderate policy is restraining aggressive dollar buying and helping to soften gold's decline.

Israel carried out large-scale airstrikes on Lebanon, stating that the ceasefire agreement does not apply to this region due to the actions of the Hezbollah militant group. The White House confirmed that Lebanon is not included in the two-week ceasefire agreed between Iran and the United States. In response, Iran has once again blocked shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz and is threatening to withdraw from the agreement if Israel continues its attacks. This backdrop reduces optimism and strengthens the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting, published on Wednesday, indicate a willingness to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, as officials are in no hurry to cut them amid inflation risks linked to energy price shocks in the region. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve members continue to signal the possibility of rate cuts later this year and another in 2027, although the exact timing remains uncertain. These factors are helping the U.S. dollar attempt a recovery after hitting a near one-month low earlier, while also offering some support to gold prices.

Traders are also cautious ahead of the release of the key U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed's primary inflation gauge—which will be published later during the North American session. Additionally, the scheduled Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday is likely to provide further signals about future Fed policy and influence the U.S. dollar's trajectory, which in turn will be an important factor for gold prices. However, the mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution when positioning for a clear intraday direction in XAU/USD.

From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to consolidate above both the 20-day level and the key $4,700 level. If this attempt proves successful, gold will have a strong chance for further gains. However, as oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory, bulls still lack sufficient momentum.

The USD/JPY pair continues to gradually recover after dropping below the 158.00 level—its lowest point in nearly three weeks—and is showing positive momentum on Thursday. Spot prices are currently approaching the 159.00 level, supported by several factors.

Market participants remain skeptical about the reliability of the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran after Israel launched a large-scale offensive in Lebanon. Additional reports suggest that Iran is considering withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement, claiming that Israel has violated its terms. This backdrop restrains positive sentiment and strengthens the U.S. dollar's position as the primary reserve currency, thereby providing additional support for USD/JPY.

Moreover, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz was suspended just minutes after Israel's attack on Lebanon. Given that Japan heavily depends on oil imports from the region, these developments are once again raising concerns that the country's economy may face serious challenges in the near future. This further weakens the Japanese yen and lends additional support to USD/JPY.

Meanwhile, U.S. dollar bulls remain cautious amid the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy. In particular, the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that the central bank expects to cut interest rates in the future, provided that inflation behaves in line with forecasts. This could limit further gains in USD/JPY, as traders eagerly await key U.S. inflation data that may significantly impact the market.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be released later during the North American session. Investor attention will then shift to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Friday, which will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy and driving demand for the U.S. dollar. In addition, ongoing geopolitical developments may trigger heightened volatility in global financial markets and in the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is holding above horizontal support at 158.35 on the 4-hour chart, which now coincides with the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), maintaining a constructive short-term outlook. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 50, indicating stabilizing momentum rather than deep oversold conditions. This leaves room for further recovery amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.

However, negative MACD readings suggest that any upward attempts may face weakening momentum. If the price fails to hold above 158.35 and breaks below it, this would weaken the current positive structure and signal a deeper correction.

The wave situation on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. All recent waves have formed within roughly the same price range and are similar in size. Recent news about a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new bullish wave. The picture now resembles the beginning of a new bullish trend. However, geopolitics is unstable, and the bulls' advance depends entirely on it.

Markets were turbulent on Wednesday. Overnight, the euro surged by more than 100 points, but during the day the bulls stopped pushing higher. This is because the ceasefire in the Middle East took on a rather unusual form. No sooner had Donald Trump announced a complete victory and a two-week ceasefire—during which Tehran and Washington were expected to reach a long-term peace agreement—and no sooner had Iran declared its own complete victory and claimed that Washington had accepted all its conditions, as gunfire resumed and missiles were launched across the Middle East. It turned out that Israel had been launching missile strikes on Lebanon throughout the day. Israel reportedly joined the two-week ceasefire with Iran, but this did not apply to Lebanon. Unknown forces (presumably American) struck an Iranian oil refinery, while Iran launched attacks on Bahrain. Judge for yourself how stable the ceasefire announced overnight really was. During the night, Donald Trump stated that U.S. military forces would remain in the region until Iran fulfills all the ceasefire conditions. If the ceasefire is violated, Trump promised "a new, bigger shooting than anyone has ever seen."

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward the 76.4% level at 1.1617. However, bulls had previously managed to break above a descending trend channel, and the news background has sharply shifted in their favor. Therefore, a consolidation above 1.1706 and further growth toward 1.1778 and 1.1849 appears more likely. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 143 long positions and 8,915 short positions. Thus, over the past seven weeks, the bulls' overall advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 200,000, while short positions total 199,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's focus is on the Middle East, where the conflict continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war involving Iran. So far, the dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Change in German industrial production (06:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – GDP (Q4) change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)

On April 9, the economic calendar contains four entries, with U.S. GDP being the most notable. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities were possible after a rebound from 1.1696 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1577. Buy trades were recommended after a consolidation above 1.1577 with a target of 1.1696, which has been reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above 1.1696 with a target of 1.1770.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577 to 1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation has shifted back to "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous high, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, but now the geopolitical backdrop has begun to improve, immediately boosting bullish confidence. The hourly chart also shows that in recent weeks the pair has been trading sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465.

The news background on Wednesday favored the bulls, but only briefly. We saw a rapid bullish advance immediately after statements by Donald Trump about reaching a two-week ceasefire with Iran and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. However, already by Wednesday afternoon, Israel began attacking Lebanon, while Iran targeted Bahrain and Kuwait. Thus, even if a ceasefire was reached, it is now hanging by a thread, and far from all parties to the conflict are participating in it. In my view, Trump's ceasefire mainly reflects his own desire to end U.S. involvement in the conflict. Whether peace will actually be established in the Middle East is of less concern to the U.S. leader. Overnight, Trump again began threatening Iran, as he believes Tehran is violating the ceasefire terms. Tehran, in turn, believes the United States is violating the agreement. Amid a large volume of geopolitical news, the market will likely once again ignore economic data. Today, the U.S. will release its fourth-quarter GDP report.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above a descending trend channel, which has so far given bulls no real advantage. The pound's quotes rose to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3439, but this level has already produced two rebounds in the past. Geopolitics has begun to improve, but bulls now need to break above 1.3439 to expect a trend. A consolidation above this level would increase the probability of further growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3664. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,845, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 51,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, we first saw a correction while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only driver of the U.S. dollar's strength.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – GDP (Q4) change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)

On April 9, the economic calendar includes three entries, with U.S. GDP being the most notable. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be weak. Traders remain focused primarily on geopolitics.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3465 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3341–1.3352. These trades can still be held open today. Buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from 1.3341–1.3352 with a target of 1.3437–1.3465, or upon a close above 1.3437–1.3465 with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3341 to 1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012 to 1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

Performance of US equity indices

Since Donald Trump took office, the S&P 500 has produced ten sharp rallies. Nine of them were driven by TACO, delivering investors a cumulative 52% gain. If you'd held stocks continuously from inauguration to today, you'd have made only about 12%.

No wonder investors were on edge. They treated Trump's talk of ending the war in 2–3 weeks, followed by threats to destroy a whole nation, as part of the game. Tradition says the S&P 500 tends to rally at the finish of that game — and now it finally has. Yes, the parties remain far apart, but both sides signal some interest in peace. That's enough to declare the worst over. Time to buy US equities.

S&P 500 performance

The six-day S&P 500 rally — the longest since September — was driven by the fastest hedge-fund short covering in the index since the pandemic, according to Goldman Sachs.

CFRA believes that events may follow a 1990s pattern. After Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, oil hit a peak in October 1990. Three months later, the S&P 500 jumped by 12.4% amid de-escalation and falling Brent. That template looks applicable now: ceasefire headlines and talks have already pushed North Sea crude lower. Few expect it to quickly resume an uptrend, leaving US indices room to run.

They are not even deterred by the Fed's firm intention to keep interest rates high. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting showed that officials are genuinely concerned about the risk of entrenched inflation. That cut the market's odds of Fed easing in 2026 from 44% to 25% and pushed US Treasury yields higher. If not for TACO, the broad index would likely have retreated. Consumer price data for March could change that.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has confidently broken above all three moving averages that comprise the Bill Williams Alligator indicator. That signals total bull dominance and supports adding to long positions established at 6,620. Pivot targets for long entires are 6,890 and 6,950.

Today, the price of Brent crude oil approached the $97 per barrel mark after a 13% decline on Wednesday. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are also trading at around $97. Yesterday, the Iranian semi-official news agency Fars reported that tanker passage through the strait was suspended following Israeli strikes, although U.S. Vice President JD Vance refuted this claim, stating, "We are seeing signs that the straits are starting to open."

It is evident that a new drama is unfolding at the heart of geopolitical battles, where every barrel of oil becomes a bargaining chip in the game between world powers. Many oil companies, whose influence extends far beyond corporate offices, have sharply criticized Iran's ambitious plan regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative proposed by Iran to impose a fee for passage through this vital waterway has sparked outrage among oil magnates, threatening to reshape the landscape of global energy markets.

The core of the oil companies' objections boils down to several key points, each carrying potentially destructive consequences. Firstly, the economic impact. Estimates indicate that the additional costs for each tanker shipment could reach a staggering $2.5 million. This shocking figure clearly illustrates how such a policy could lead to a sharp increase in fuel prices worldwide for consumers. For countries whose economies directly depend on oil production and exports, this could result in a significant financial blow.

Secondly, there is a pressing issue regarding compliance with the sanctions regime. Imposing a fee for passage, if directed to Iran, could violate existing sanctions. This, in turn, carries serious legal and political repercussions for both companies and the states involved in the process. The complex web of international agreements and restrictions might be on the verge of breaking down, sparking a new wave of tension.

Finally, one cannot ignore the factor of a dangerous precedent. If the idea of charging a fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is implemented, it could open Pandora's box. Other key maritime routes, such as the Strait of Malacca or the Suez Canal, might follow suit, triggering a cascade of similar fees and complicating global trade and logistics. Oil companies fear that such a practice could become entrenched, turning into a new norm that would make supply routes even more vulnerable and costly.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow targeting $106.83, above which breaking through will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be $113.36. If oil prices fall, bears will attempt to take control at $92.54. If they succeed, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push Oil down to a minimum of $86.67 with the prospect of reaching $81.38.

The euphoria regarding a swift resolution to peace between the U.S. and Iran has significantly diminished, although a mass sell-off in the cryptocurrency market has yet to occur. Most of yesterday's Asian growth remains under buyers' control, so the chances of continued strengthening in Bitcoin and Ethereum remain.

Meanwhile, Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin and an innovator in digital currencies, has taken another significant step toward integrating cryptocurrencies into the global financial system with the launch of its new platform, CPN Managed Payments. This solution is specifically designed to enable banks and payment services to settle transactions using the USDC stablecoin while fully relieving them of the need to hold crypto assets. All the complex infrastructure necessary for working with digital currencies, as well as the responsibility for ensuring regulatory compliance, remains under Circle's management.

The launch of CPN Managed Payments marks an important milestone in simplifying the adoption of stablecoins into traditional payment chains. By creating a transparent and secure environment, Circle aims to substantially lower entry barriers for institutional players. This is a significant step forward against its competitor, Tether, the issuer of USDT. The new solution not only opens the doors for broader use of stablecoins in cross-border payments, business transactions, and other trades but also enhances efficiency and reduces costs.

Regarding the intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the long-term bullish market.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $71,100 with a target for growth to $72,000. At $72,000, I plan to exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $70,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $71,100 and $72,000.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $70,600 with a target for the drop to $69,600. At $69,600, I plan to exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $71,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $70,600 and $69,600.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,189 with a target for growth to $2,215. At $2,215, I plan to exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,168 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,189 and $2,215.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,168 with a target for the drop to $2,143. At $2,143, I plan to exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $2,189 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,168 and $2,143.

This morning, however, US and European equity futures fell, while oil prices moved higher. That market dissonance was triggered by fading optimism about a possible ceasefire between the US and Iran. Tehran issued a statement claiming violations of several terms of the agreement, instantly sowing doubt and reintroducing uncertainty to financial markets.

The news was a cold shower for investors, who until recently were buoyed by hopes of de-escalation of a major geopolitical conflict. It had been assumed that an agreement between the two countries would reduce risks to energy supplies and support global economic activity. As is often the case in the Middle East, the situation remains extremely fragile.

Market reaction was immediate. The drop in equity futures shows investors chose to hedge, take profits, and cut risk exposure. The rebound in oil prices, in turn, reflects concern that tensions in the region may persist and impact crude production or transportation. This dynamic underscores how strongly ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence global financial markets, making them highly sensitive to even small shifts in diplomatic relations.

Asian stock markets fell by 0.9% after Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that three points of the ceasefire proposal are currently violated. Wall Street and European index futures were down about 0.2%, signaling the likely end of a four-day global equity advance.

Brent crude gained 2.4% to roughly $97 per barrel, recovering from its steepest drop in more than six years, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

Treasury prices were steady after offsetting an initial intraday rise during the US session. Japanese and Australian government bonds fell amid concern that higher oil would stoke inflation.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,769. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a surge to $6784. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,801, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must step up around $6,756. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,743 and could open the way to $6,727.

With EMA(50) condition crossing above EMA(200) Golden Cross, the bias for #SPX today remains bullish, with potential to test the nearest resistance level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 6921.26

2. Resistance. 1 : 6848.31

3. Pivot : 6733.66

4. Support. 1 : 6660.71

5. Support. 2 : 6546.06

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price holds at 6733.66, there is a high probability of a move up toward 6848.31.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 6,848.31 is broken out, there is potential to test 6921.26.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The upside bias weakens if #SPX falls and breaks below 6546.06.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 6755.32

EMA(200): 6655.25

RSI(14) : 47.84

Economic News Release Agenda:

From the United States, the following economic data will be released:

US - Core PCE Price Index m/m - 19:30 WIB

US - Final GDP q/q - 19:30 WIB

US - Final GDP Price Index q/q - 19:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Claims - 19:30 WIB

US - Personal Income m/m - 19:30 WIB

US - Personal Spending m/m - 19:30 WIB

US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - 21:00 WIb

US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB

US - 30-y Bond Auction - 00:01 WIB

#USDX still dominates by sellers, as it is confirmed by a Death Cross between the two EMAs, so there is potential in the near term to test the nearest support level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 100.14

2. Resistance. 1 : 99.57

3. Pivot : 99.04

4. Support. 1 : 98.47

5. Support. 2 : 97.94

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 98.47, there is potential pressure toward 97.94.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.94 is also broken, #USDX may test 97.37.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens and breaks out above 100.14.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 99.04

EMA(200): 99.51

RSI(14) : 53.86

Economic News Release Agenda:

From the United States, the following economic data will be released:

US - Core PCE Price Index m/m - 19:30 WIB

US - Final GDP q/q - 19:30 WIB

US - Final GDP Price Index q/q - 19:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Claims - 19:30 WIB

US - Personal Income m/m - 19:30 WIB

US - Personal Spending m/m - 19:30 WIB

US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - 21:00 WIb

US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB

US - 30-y Bond Auction - 00:01 WIB

The price test at 158.35 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by 40 pips.

However, the dollar then rose against the yen after the publication of the Federal Reserve's minutes, in which the committee acknowledged heightened uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East and risks to employment. Nearly all Fed chairpersons supported maintaining the current rate, with only one member voting for a 0.25% cut. The Fed minutes were interpreted by the market as a signal that the Fed is ready to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy. Given the geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on global energy markets, as well as the slowing pace of global economic growth, the U.S. central bank seeks to avoid premature moves. In this context, upcoming economic data, especially on U.S. inflation and employment, will be crucial for the future direction of monetary policy, which will significantly impact the USD/JPY pair.

We must not forget the geopolitical tensions that are gradually rising again. The failed U.S.-Iran negotiations quickly restored demand for the dollar and will lead to a sell-off of the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 159.04 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.44 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.44, I plan to exit the long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and substantial pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 158.28 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to resistance levels of 159.04 and 159.44 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 158.82 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.51 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.04 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to support levels of 158.82 and 158.51 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3446 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential.

Significant disagreements in the peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran have become the main driver of pressure on risk assets. The British pound took a hit. The Israeli attack on Libya and the refusal to enrich uranium are the most problematic aspects of this agreement. The act of yet another attack on Libya, which many view as an intermediary country or even an ally of Iran, only heightened distrust of the West and its allies' intentions. This may prompt Iran to reconsider its commitments under a potential agreement, potentially provoking a new military conflict.

As for the data, today's financial activity is focused on one key macroeconomic indicator from the United Kingdom. In the first half of the day, the release of the lending conditions report published by the Bank of England is expected. This report serves as a reliable indicator of the availability of credit for various categories of borrowers, including both households and corporations. The document provides insights into banks' willingness to extend loans, the interest rates they offer, and the dynamics of loan demand. This information is important for assessing the state of the British economy. Special attention will be paid to forecasts from financial institutions regarding credit conditions for the coming months.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3406 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to 1.3448 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3448, I plan to exit the market and also sell the pound in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong growth in the pound can only be expected with very strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3382 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.3406 and 1.3448 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3382 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3345 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3406 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.3382 and 1.3345 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1703 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the upside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1703 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, prompting the execution of Scenario #2 to sell, resulting in a 30-pip decline in the pair.

Insurmountable disagreements that arose during negotiations on a peace treaty between the United States and Iran prompted a decline in euro interest yesterday. The sudden escalation in diplomatic relations, following earlier promising but non-final signs of rapprochement, returned demand for the dollar.

In the first half of the day today, attention will focus on the release of German macroeconomic indicators, the engine of the Eurozone economy. Information regarding changes in industrial production is expected to be released. This key indicator serves as a gauge of the state of German industry and provides insight into the pace of economic recovery or a slowdown. Concurrently, data on Germany's trade balance will also be published. Historically, Germany's strong position regarding a positive trade balance remains an important factor. These releases could exert additional pressure on the euro if the data turns out to be significantly worse than economists' forecasts.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy the euro at a price around 1.1672 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1711. At 1.1711, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Only in the case of positive data can we expect the euro to rise. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1653 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1672 and 1.1711 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1653 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S.-Iran relations worsen. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1672 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.1653 and 1.1614 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The unexpected escalation on the diplomatic front, following relatively positive yet still inconclusive hints of a rapprochement, has generated a new wave of uncertainty in global financial markets. Traders, who tend to be cautious during periods of geopolitical tension, have begun to reassess their portfolios, returning to the dollar. Concerns related to the potential resumption of U.S. attacks on Iran and possible retaliatory measures have quickly undermined confidence in expectations of normalizing supply chains.

Today's economic events are not expected to significantly impact European financial markets. However, in the first half of the day, traders will focus on German macroeconomic indicators. There is an expectation for data on changes in industrial production to be published. This indicator is one of the key barometers of German industry and generally reflects the strength of the recovery or the deceleration in economic activity. Simultaneously, data on Germany's trade balance will be provided. This indicator reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. A consistently positive trade balance is a traditional strength of the German economy; however, changes in its structure or dynamics could indicate shifting conditions in the global market.

Regarding the pound, the publication of the lending conditions report, regularly issued by the Bank of England, is anticipated in the first half of the day. This document serves as a barometer of credit resource availability for a broad range of borrowers—from households to the corporate sector. The report provides information on banks' willingness to extend loans, the interest rates they offer, and trends in loan demand. These data are relevant for assessing the state of the British economy, as the availability and cost of credit directly influence consumer spending and business investment activity.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 1.1670 may lead to a rise of the euro towards 1.1700 and 1.1745;

Sell on a breakout of the level 1.1650 may lead to a decline of the euro towards 1.1630 and 1.1602;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 1.3400 may lead to a rise of the pound towards 1.3430 and 1.3476;

Sell on a breakout of the level 1.3375 may lead to a decline of the pound towards 1.3340 and 1.3300;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 158.90 may lead to a rise of the dollar towards 159.20 and 159.49;

Sell on a breakout of the level 158.70 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar towards 158.47 and 158.18;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.1677 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.1647 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.3415 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.3377 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 0.7059 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 0.7024 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.3863 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.3834 on a return to this level;

A few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and the market's attention may once again shift toward geopolitics. In the morning, Germany will release reports on the trade balance, imports, exports, and industrial production. In our view, these are secondary reports unlikely to elicit any market reaction. In the U.S., more important data will be released, including the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, personal income and spending, and the core personal consumption expenditure price index. American data have a chance to provoke a reaction, but let's reiterate: the market will once again be waiting for geopolitical news.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in any direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3403-1.3407. We still do not see any grounds for a strong and prolonged rise of the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), and the improving geopolitical situation has immediately triggered a collapse in the dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also demonstrated strong growth on Wednesday, but, like the euro, most of the upward movement occurred during the Asian trading session. During the European and American sessions, information began to emerge indicating that the ceasefire is not a true ceasefire, as no one intends to end hostilities in the Middle East. For example, Israel reported that an agreement has only been reached with Iran, while Lebanon is still not included in the list of friendly countries. Thus, we saw the market's initial reaction to the negotiations and a potential peace, but now, for further growth of the pair, confirmation is needed that all conflict participants in the Middle East are ready to cease fire and sit down at the negotiating table.

From a technical standpoint, the descending trendline has been breached, but the further growth of the British pound depends on how long and successful the ceasefire proves to be.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute time frame, a multitude of trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Throughout the day, the pair consistently bounced from one of three zones: 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, and 1.3484-1.3489. All signals generated during the day resulted in hitting target areas. As a result, beginner traders opened many trading positions, all of which turned out to be profitable.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair has begun to form a new upward trend, but the British pound's growth will depend entirely on the degree of de-escalation in the Middle East. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we expect the global upward trend to resume in 2026. However, for that to happen, geopolitical tensions worldwide must continue to decline, as the dollar has been in demand solely on that basis.

On Thursday, beginner traders may open new short positions if the price bounces from the 1.3403-1.3407 area, targeting 1.3319-1.3331. A consolidation above the 1.3403-1.3407 area will allow opening long positions with targets at 1.3437-1.3446 and 1.3484-1.3489.

On the 5-minute time frame, trading can currently be executed at the levels of 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. Today, there are no major events scheduled in the UK, while in the U.S., the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index will be released. We believe the market focus will again be directed toward geopolitics.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair achieved strong upward movement on Wednesday, but most of it occurred during the Asian trading session. Recall that Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, which triggered a sharp decline in both the dollar and oil prices. However, during the day, Israel launched hundreds of rockets at Lebanon, while Iran struck Bahrain and Kuwait. Thus, the ceasefire appears rather dubious, and there have been no new statements from Donald Trump regarding the current situation in the Middle East. Therefore, today, traders are likely to hesitate before making new dollar sales, as the truce currently seems quite ephemeral. Nonetheless, a new complex upward trend has begun to form on the hourly time frame, but the pair's further growth depends entirely on geopolitics. If it turns out today that the ceasefire has ended, the pair could fall back to the trend line.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly time frame, the upward trend has resumed due to geopolitics, and the pair's further movements will depend on the same factors. The market continues to trade exclusively based on events in the Middle East and emotions. Therefore, the "rollercoaster" effect may continue for a long time, while macroeconomic, technical, and fundamental factors become irrelevant. Trump consistently provokes both declines and surges in the U.S. dollar.

On Thursday, beginner traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1655-1.1666 area, targeting 1.1584-1.1591. A price bounce from the area of 1.1655-1.1666 will allow for long positions to be opened with targets at 1.1745-1.1754.

On the 5-minute time frame, levels to consider include 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Thursday, the U.S. will publish the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, as well as the core personal consumption expenditure index. Meanwhile, Germany will release its industrial production report. We believe the markets will again be awaiting news from Trump regarding the ceasefire with Iran.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.