Unemployment among 25–29-year-olds, excluding students, also edged down, to 7.1% from 7.2%, while the jobless rate for the 30–59 age group eased to 4.0% from 4.1%. The overall surveyed urban unemployment rate slipped slightly as well, to 5.0% in June from 5.1% in May.

By contrast, civil engineering growth eased slightly to 3.5% from 3.7%, while building construction remained weak, with output dropping 6.6% after a 4.9% decline in April.

Across member states, construction activity expanded most notably in Austria, where output rose 3.0% after a 2.4% contraction. Growth also strengthened in Germany (3.5% versus 0.7%) and in Poland (6.1% versus 4.6%).

On a monthly basis, Eurozone construction output increased by 0.4% in May, picking up from a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in the previous month.

Oil prices have remained highly volatile as markets react to rapidly changing expectations of either escalation or de-escalation in the conflict, which has repeatedly disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the session, prices jumped following fresh military exchanges between the US and Iran, including attacks on vessels attempting to transit the strait and a weekend strike on an oil facility in Kuwait. Even after the pullback, geopolitical risks continue to embed a substantial risk premium in crude prices.

Investors are now turning their attention to Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to be left unchanged following June’s hike. Even so, markets are still pricing in two additional ECB rate increases by early 2027, with the first potentially arriving as soon as September.

On the corporate side, Germany’s automotive sector was in the spotlight after Tesla announced plans to rapidly expand production at its Grünheide factory near Berlin. Meanwhile, Salzgitter extended Friday’s rally after the steelmaker raised its full-year earnings guidance.

On a monthly basis, the average gross salary rebounded by 2.5% after a 3.8% decline in May. This recovery was largely driven by a higher volume of additional payments, including bonuses and awards such as quarterly, annual, incentive and discretionary payments, as well as long-service awards and pay raises.

Year-to-date, corporate sector wages have increased by 5.8%.

Output growth also picked up in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply (16.4% vs. 12.8% in May), as well as in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (14.7% vs. 11.0%). By contrast, growth moderated in mining and quarrying, easing to 28.3% from 31.0%.

On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 2.0% in June, recovering from a 0.8% decline in May. For the first half of 2026 as a whole, industrial output was 3.9% higher than in the same period a year earlier.

Over the January–June period, exports rose 20% year-on-year to USD 3,876.3 million. Growth was driven primarily by stronger shipments of oil and petroleum products (up 974.3%), precious metal ores and concentrates (up 74.3%), and copper ores and concentrates (up 287.4%). Among major trading partners, exports increased sharply to China (143%), Armenia (27%), and Turkey (57.3%).

Imports in the first half of the year inched up 0.7% to USD 9,049.1 million, supported by higher purchases of oil and petroleum products (34.6%), medications (8.5%), and petroleum gases and other hydrocarbons (19.1%). By country, imports rose from Turkey (6.8%), Russia (25.6%), China (22.5%), and Azerbaijan (25%).

As a result, Georgia’s trade deficit for the first half of 2026 narrowed to USD 5,172.9 million, compared with USD 5,757.6 million in the corresponding period of 2025.

These pressures compound existing constraints, notably China’s 45 million-ton production cap, which is expected to become more binding this year. At the same time, inventories at LME warehouses remain near their lowest levels since 2022, while stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to fall, underscoring resilient demand. Some relief may come from the restart of Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah alumina refinery, which has resumed operations after a three-and-a-half-month outage.

Inflation decelerated in both mining and quarrying (15.3% vs. 24.6% in May) and manufacturing (5.2% vs. 6.5%), with notable slowdowns for coke and refined petroleum products (18.5% vs. 52.5%), basic metals (10.6% vs. 13.4%), chemicals and chemical products (19.1% vs. 23.7%), and food products (5.8% vs. 6.5%).

By contrast, price growth accelerated in electricity, gas, steam, and air‑conditioning supply (4.4% vs. 1.0%) and in water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation services (6.7% vs. 6.4%).

On a monthly basis, producer prices declined by 0.8% in June, following a flat reading in May.

There was also a sharp deceleration in activity in the electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply sector, which rose by 11.0% after surging 36.1% in April. By contrast, output in mining and quarrying accelerated, expanding 22.4% compared with 13.4% in the previous month.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production rebounded by 1.9% in May, following an 11.7% contraction in April. Over the first five months of 2026 (January–May), industrial output was up 7.2% compared with the same period a year earlier.

In China, Australia’s key trading partner, the People’s Bank of China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 14th straight month at the July fixing, matching expectations as authorities attempted to balance growth support with currency stability.

Energy-related stocks outperformed, with Woodside Energy rising 1.5% and Santos gaining 1.7%. South32 advanced 4.2%, while Ampol Ltd. added 1.3%. In contrast, gold miners retreated, led by Evolution Mining, down 1.8%, and Northern Star, off 0.9%. Among the major banks, two of the big four slipped between 0.2% and 0.5%.

Industry data showed that blast furnace capacity utilization at surveyed mills fell below 90% last week, while the share of profitable mills eased to around 37%.

On the trade front, recent Chinese customs data indicated that steel exports dropped 5.6% year-on-year to 57.87 million tons in the first half of the year. In June alone, exports stood at 10.32 million tons, down 0.2% from May but 6.6% higher than a year earlier. Over the same January–June period, China’s steel imports totaled 2.69 million tons, an 11.3% decline compared with the same period last year.

Brent crude surpassed $90 per barrel, the highest level in more than a month, as intensifying tensions between the United States and Iran raised the risk of disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, stoking renewed inflation concerns.

Money markets now anticipate that the ECB’s deposit facility rate will reach 2.70% by December and 2.78% by February 2027, up from the current 2.25%. The first hike is expected as early as September. Investors are now focused on Thursday’s ECB policy meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep rates on hold and maintain a wait‑and‑see approach after June’s first rate increase in three years.