The jump from May to June underscores a significant strengthening in external demand for Thai goods, or a notable shift in export volumes and values captured through customs data. While the underlying drivers are not detailed in the release, the acceleration suggests that Thailand’s trade position may be improving in mid-2026, potentially providing a supportive backdrop for overall economic activity.

With export growth now firmly in double digits and trending higher month-on-month, market participants and policymakers will likely watch upcoming data closely to assess whether June’s performance marks the start of a more sustained upswing in Thailand’s external sector or a short-term spike in shipments.

The jump in customs-based import growth suggests a strengthening of domestic demand and potentially higher input purchases by Thai manufacturers, as businesses respond to both internal consumption needs and external orders. Such a rapid expansion in imports can also signal rising investment-related purchases, such as machinery and intermediate goods, though the composition of the increase is not specified in the released data.

These updated figures, published on 24 July 2026, will be closely watched by investors and analysts assessing Thailand’s trade dynamics and overall economic momentum, as stronger imports can both support future production and weigh on the trade balance depending on export performance in the same period.

The larger deficit indicates that import values continued to outstrip export earnings during June, adding pressure to Thailand’s external balance. The month-on-month deterioration in the trade position may draw attention from policymakers and market participants tracking the country’s exposure to global demand trends and import-dependent sectors.

Investors and analysts will be watching upcoming trade releases closely to assess whether June’s wider deficit marks the start of a more persistent trend or a temporary fluctuation linked to short-term factors in global trade flows.

European gas prices are up 8% so far this week and have surged more than 42% in July, as reduced LNG flows from the Persian Gulf have intensified competition with Asian buyers. At the same time, hot weather across Europe has driven up electricity demand for cooling. Together, these factors are complicating efforts to rebuild gas inventories ahead of winter. Equinor, Europe’s largest gas supplier, has warned that the bloc is unlikely to reach its 80% storage target before the heating season, leaving the market more exposed to sharp price swings once colder weather sets in.

At the same time, Brent crude oil climbed above $100 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, heightening fears of additional supply disruptions and amplifying imported inflation risks for Japan. In parallel, worries over Japan’s fiscal outlook also pressured government bonds, as rising debt-servicing costs have come under greater scrutiny with longer-term yields reaching multi-decade highs. Higher US Treasury yields—led by the 10-year yield moving above 4.7%—added further upward pressure on Japanese bond yields, as investors reassessed the global interest rate environment.

Pressure was broad-based across major sectors, with cyclicals, transportation, infrastructure, and basic materials leading the declines. Notable laggards included Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (-6.0%), Bumi Resources (-3.8%), Charoen Pokphand (-3.6%), and Bank Mandiri (-3.2%).

Despite the pullback, the local market remains on track for a modest weekly gain, up about 0.2% so far, which would mark a third straight week of advances. Sentiment has been supported by an unexpected decision from the central bank to pause its policy tightening cycle after delivering a total of 100 basis points in rate hikes since May.

Meanwhile, the government continues efforts to improve fiscal efficiency, cutting its free school meals budget further and trimming allocations for defence and police spending.

Despite the near-term pressure, platinum’s underlying fundamentals remain constructive. The market is projected to record a fourth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, as constrained mine supply and shrinking above-ground inventories more than offset robust growth in recycled material. In the longer term, demand is expected to be underpinned by China’s industrial policies promoting artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and clean energy, as well as by the introduction of the first platinum investment bar series, which should further support investment and consumption.

In response, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas intervened in the foreign exchange market this week to help stabilize the peso, while the Marcos administration voiced confidence that the central bank would step in more decisively if necessary. Fitch Group’s BMI Research expects the peso to trade in the 61–63 per US dollar range this year, positioning it among Asia’s weakest-performing currencies. The peso has already lost nearly 5% against the US dollar so far this year.

While the conflict has intensified inflation concerns via higher oil prices, it has also increased downside risks for the New Zealand economy. The country is heavily reliant on oil imports from the Middle East, leaving the kiwi exposed to potential supply disruptions and rising energy costs.

Even so, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise interest rates again in September, following stronger-than-expected inflation data. Market projections suggest the policy rate could reach at least 3.0% by the end of the year and peak near 3.5% around mid‑next year. The kiwi is down about 1% so far this week, on track for its first weekly decline in four.

Losses were partly cushioned after the People’s Bank of China said it would inject a net CNY 500 billion into the banking system via a one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF), following the CNY 700 billion in liquidity it added earlier this month through reverse repos. This is the largest medium- to long-term liquidity injection since February and is intended to shore up growth ahead of the late-July Politburo meeting.

Notable decliners included Foxconn Industrial Internet (-3%), Zijin Mining Group (-4.8%), Zhongji Innolight (-1.9%), and Eoptolink Technology (-2.2%). Despite Friday’s pullback, both benchmarks remained on course to post gains for the week.

Sentiment was additionally pressured by a technology-led selloff on Wall Street and higher US Treasury yields, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. Providing some support, China’s central bank injected the largest amount of liquidity in five months into the financial system via its medium-term lending facility, bolstering hopes for further policy measures to underpin economic growth.

Among notable decliners were Tencent (-2.2%), AIA (-1.5%), Xiaomi (-0.7%), Meituan (-2.0%), and Kingboard Laminates (-2.7%).

Most sectors traded lower, led by technology, consumer durables, and non-energy minerals. Mining heavyweight BHP Group slipped 1.6%, while gold producers Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining dropped 3.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Despite the day’s weakness, the local market is still on course for its first weekly gain in three weeks, up about 0.2% so far, supported by signs of resilience in manufacturing and services activity in July, as indicated by the S&P Global flash PMIs.

Sentiment toward the yen has also been dampened by concerns over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s fiscal policy, while escalating US-Iran tensions have intensified worries about Japan’s energy security, given the country’s heavy dependence on imported fuel. At the same time, Japan’s headline inflation accelerated to a six-month high in June, reinforcing expectations for further interest rate hikes.

The yen has declined 0.8% so far this week, putting it on course for its worst weekly performance since May, when it weakened following Japan’s record-sized currency intervention.

The stronger greenback erased gains in the Aussie that followed better‑than‑expected domestic employment data, even as the jump in oil prices strengthened the case for another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike. Interest rate markets now assign roughly a 40% probability that the RBA will raise the 4.35% cash rate in August, up from about 10% only a few weeks earlier, with a move by November almost fully priced in. Investors are now looking ahead to next week’s release of second‑quarter inflation data for further guidance on the policy outlook.

On the monetary policy front, surging energy prices driven by mounting tensions in the Middle East, together with a still-robust US labor market, strengthened expectations for further policy tightening. Swap markets are now pricing in a 34% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, at least one additional increase by September, and the possibility of another move before year-end.

Sentiment was further hit by a selloff in technology stocks after disappointing earnings from major US firms, pressuring South Korean chipmakers in particular. In addition, newly announced US tariffs of up to 12.5% on South Korea and other trading partners over forced labor concerns fueled uncertainty about the country’s export outlook. Among index heavyweights, Samsung Electronics (-3.6%), SK hynix (-3.1%), SK Square (-6.1%), Hyundai Motor (-6.1%), LG Energy Solution (-3.7%), and KB Financial Group (-5.0%) all finished lower.

The moderation was driven by a slight decline in non-landed property prices (-0.1% vs. +1.3% in Q1). This was largely due to weaker prices in the Rest of Central Region (-1.2% vs. +0.8%) and the Outside Central Region (-0.1% vs. +2.2%), partially offset by stronger price gains in the Core Central Region (1.8% vs. +0.6%). In contrast, landed property prices rebounded, rising 2.5% after a 0.4% decline in the previous quarter.

The government reiterated its commitment to maintaining a high and steady supply of private housing. A total of 4,745 units will be launched under the Government Land Sales Programme in the second half of 2026, and about 60,600 private residential units are expected to be completed in the coming years.

On the macroeconomic front, Japan’s headline inflation accelerated to 1.7% in June from 1.5% in May, its highest level in six months, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan may deliver additional interest rate hikes.

Technology and AI-linked stocks led the declines, with notable losses in Kioxia Holdings (-3.1%), Advantest (-3.9%), SoftBank Group (-5.1%), Tokyo Electron (-2.0%), Taiyo Yuden (-3.4%), Lasertec (-1.2%), and Murata Manufacturing (-2.1%).

Despite Friday’s pullback, the Nikkei 225 remains up more than 1% for the week and is on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks.

On the pricing front, input cost inflation continued to soften. However, firms increased output prices at the fastest rate in more than 12 years, underscoring sustained efforts to pass higher costs on to customers.

Looking ahead, business confidence weakened amid ongoing uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East—particularly its effects on energy and raw material prices—as well as persistent supply chain disruptions.

Employment increased at a quicker pace, while purchasing activity expanded at its fastest rate in over four years, contributing to higher input inventories amid ongoing supply chain disruptions and elevated costs associated with the conflict. Stocks of finished goods also increased, registering their first rise in two years.

On the price front, input cost inflation moderated, and output price inflation slowed to a three‑month low. Business sentiment strengthened to its highest level in four months, supported by expectations of new product launches and firmer demand, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors.

Manufacturing output accelerated at its fastest pace since 2014, even as growth in the services sector moderated. Overall new orders increased at a slower rate, reflecting softer demand for services, although new export business rose at the quickest pace in four months.

Employment continued to expand for a 34th straight month, with the pace of job creation broadly unchanged. However, capacity pressures intensified, as backlogs of work accumulated at the fastest rate since February’s record high.

On the price front, input cost inflation slowed to its weakest level since April but remained elevated, amid persistent supply and energy cost pressures linked to conflict in the Middle East. Firms raised output charges more aggressively, while business sentiment deteriorated from June, dampened by concerns over energy and raw material costs, as well as ongoing supply chain risks arising from geopolitical uncertainty.