Prices also drew support from weather projections, with forecasts calling for record-high temperatures across the Southwest through the weekend. The Commodity Weather Group said on Thursday that above-average temperatures are expected across nearly the entire US from September 1–10, which should keep cooling demand elevated.

Still, robust domestic output is limiting further price gains. Production in the Lower 48 has averaged a record 111.4 bcfd so far in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July. At the same time, average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities edged down to 17.1 bcfd from 17.2 bcfd in July, although there are early signs that LNG demand is beginning to recover.

The BSP raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 5.4% from 4.5%, citing upside risks from severe El Niño conditions and higher minimum wages. At the same time, it lowered its 2026 forecast to 6.1%, reflecting some relief from easing global oil prices. However, elevated oil prices remain a key vulnerability for the peso, as the Philippines imports nearly all of its oil requirements, a dynamic that could further widen the current-account deficit and intensify domestic inflationary pressures.

Governor Eli Remolona reiterated that the central bank’s priority would be to smooth excessive volatility in the foreign-exchange market rather than defend any particular exchange-rate level. The peso has now fallen more than 5% against the dollar since the start of the year, placing it among the weakest-performing currencies in Asia.

The near-closure of the Strait has continued to disrupt LNG shipments from Qatar, while extreme summer heat has driven up cooling demand, diverting gas from storage. This combination has left Europe scrambling to secure additional supplies and has intensified concerns that the region could enter the winter heating season with inadequate reserves. Over the week, European gas prices gained more than 3%, marking a third consecutive weekly increase.

On the corporate front, Meituan drew attention ahead of its second-quarter results due later in the day, with investors scrutinizing margins amid intense competition and continued subsidies following the company’s third consecutive quarterly loss in Q1. Among major movers, Tencent climbed 1.7%, Kingboard Laminates rose 3.8%, MiniMax advanced 3.1%, AIA Group gained 1.5%, and Xiaomi added 1.5%. In contrast, Akeso dropped 7.5%, Meituan slipped 0.9%, and Dongyue Group fell 1.2%.

Electronic technology shares continued to strengthen, rising 0.7% in tandem with Thursday’s gains in the U.S. tech sector. TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker and a heavyweight that represents more than 40% of the market’s total capitalization, added 0.6%. MediaTek advanced 1.9%, while Delta Electronics rose 2.2%. Nanya Technology, a leading Taiwanese memory chip maker, edged up 0.2%.

Investors, however, remained cautious ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today, seeking clues on the Federal Reserve’s likely course for monetary policy at its upcoming meeting.

The RBA has already raised rates three times this year and officials have cautioned that further tightening remains on the table. The stronger data prompted several major banks to upgrade their policy projections: NAB now expects the cash rate to rise to 4.6% next month, while CBA and ANZ see the next move in November but concede the risk of an earlier hike.

Market pricing now implies roughly a 50% probability of an increase at the RBA’s September meeting, up from about 17% previously, and a November hike is fully priced in. Attention is turning to Q2 GDP and upcoming labour market releases for additional guidance on the policy outlook.

At the same time, risks to Black Sea shipments have increased as Russia considers escalating military pressure on Ukraine after concluding that peace talks have reached a dead end. Concurrently, strikes on Russian refineries have curtailed refining capacity, further amplifying regional fuel supply concerns.

In the US, EIA data showed that distillate inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel decline and underscoring the tightness in stocks.

Separately, reports surfaced that the US is preparing to levy a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over alleged industrial overcapacity. Even so, both Washington and Beijing are moving ahead with preparations for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to the US next month.

On the corporate front, notable gainers included PetroChina (+1.1%), Foxconn Industrial Internet (+1.5%), Zhongji Innolight (+0.9%), and Huagong Tech (+1.3%).

On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan is increasingly expected to raise interest rates in September amid mounting concerns over yen weakness and import-driven inflation. Meanwhile, data showed that Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in July, its lowest level in a year, while Tokyo’s inflation rate accelerated to a five-month high in August.

The robust data led traders to bring forward expectations for the next move by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while several major banks revised their forecasts. NAB now anticipates the cash rate will rise to 4.6% next month, whereas CBA and ANZ still project a November increase but concede that an earlier hike is possible. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a rate rise at the RBA’s September meeting, up sharply from 17%, and a November hike is considered fully priced in. Investors are also focusing on upcoming Q2 GDP and labor market figures for further guidance on the policy outlook.

At the same time, risks to Black Sea shipments have risen as Russia weighs stepping up military pressure on Ukraine, having concluded that peace talks are at an impasse. Strikes on Russian refineries have also driven refinery runs down toward multi-year lows.

In the US, EIA data showed gasoline inventories fell by 2.536 million barrels in the week ending August 21, a much larger draw than expected. Stockpiles now stand about 6% below the five-year average, highlighting persistent tightness in the gasoline market.

The pullback came despite a strong overnight performance on Wall Street, driven by Nvidia’s better-than-expected earnings and upbeat revenue guidance. Korean chipmakers failed to mirror the US tech rally, with both Samsung Electronics and SK hynix retreating more than 1%, curbing any positive spillover from the US market.

Sentiment was further weighed down by Samsung Biologics, which slumped nearly 5% after announcing plans to raise KRW 3 trillion through a rights offering. Additional notable decliners included LG Energy Solution (-1.8%), Hanwha Aerospace (-2.6%), HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (-2.8%), SK Inc. (-2.5%), and LS Electric (-1.8%).

Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said that monetary policy is not restraining the economy. At the same time, investors continued to weigh the implications of the US Treasury’s expanded debt buyback program, which has intensified concerns over the risks of a potential US debt crisis and associated downside risks for the dollar.

On the domestic front, household spending increased more than expected in July, registering a third consecutive monthly gain. However, the upside was capped by investor caution ahead of next week’s July PMI releases for both Australia and key trading partner China, as well as domestic Q2 GDP and July trade figures.

Sector-wise, technology, commercial services, and healthcare led the advance, partly offset by softness in industrials and retail trade. The four major banks gained between 0.4% and 1.0%, while notable movers included Xero Ltd. (up 8.1%), Pro Medicus (up 3.8%), and REA Group (up 2.6%). For the week, the market is on track for a modest 0.2% rise so far, reversing declines over the previous two weeks.

By contrast, imports of electronic products jumped 61.3%, fueled by robust gains in components and devices (79%) and electronic data processing equipment (32.8%). Import growth was further supported by higher inbound shipments of mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials (34.8%), as well as cereals and cereal preparations (50.1%).

China remained the Philippines’ top import source, accounting for 29.5% of total imports, with purchases from the country rising 20.2% from a year earlier. Imports also posted strong increases from South Korea (75.7%), Japan (23.1%), and the United States (4.2%).

Over the first seven months of 2026, the country’s total imports amounted to USD 92.3 billion.

China remained the country’s leading import source, accounting for 29.5% of total imports, followed by South Korea (12.7%), Japan (7.9%), and Indonesia (5.7%).

On the export side, shipments grew at a more moderate pace of 10.8%, reaching USD 8.1 billion. This expansion was supported by higher exports of electronic products (+22.2%), machinery and transport equipment (+16.6%), and gold (+29.3%). The United States retained its position as the Philippines’ largest export market, absorbing 20.7% of total exports, followed by Hong Kong (15.9%), China (11.3%), and Japan (10.5%).

For the January–July period, the cumulative trade deficit widened to USD 37.3 billion, compared with USD 28.9 billion in the same period a year earlier.

These declines were partly offset by stronger exports of electronic products, which remained the country’s leading export commodity. Electronics accounted for 58.8% of total exports and climbed 22.2%, driven by a 26.1% increase in semiconductor components.

By destination, exports to the United States—the Philippines’ largest export market with an 18.5% share of total shipments—surged 45.1%. Shipments also increased to Hong Kong (+15.4%), China (+9.7%), Singapore (+29.8%), and Taiwan (+14.6%), while exports to Japan and the Netherlands declined by 14.1% and 9.8%, respectively.

For the January–July period, total exports rose 12.9% to USD 54.9 billion.

Additional upward pressure came from prices of computer, electronic and optical products, which climbed 5.8% (from 5.6%), and from other manufacturing, as well as the repair and installation of machinery and equipment, where prices rose 3.2% (from 2.4%).

These gains were partly offset by slower price growth in several categories, including basic metals (5.5% vs 5.7%), transport equipment (2.8% vs 3.0%), and food products (1.3% vs 1.7%), with the deceleration in prepared animal feeds (0.9% vs 2.3%) particularly notable.

The July reading signals a marginal acceleration in import growth, suggesting sustained external demand and ongoing domestic appetite for foreign goods. With back-to-back gains near the 20% mark on a year-over-year basis, imports remain a key contributor to the country’s overall trade dynamics as the second half of 2026 begins.

The month-on-month widening of the trade deficit by just over $1 billion highlights sustained external pressures on the Philippine economy, as imports continue to outpace exports. While the underlying drivers of the shift were not disclosed in the latest figures, the larger shortfall in July underscores the country’s ongoing reliance on foreign goods and inputs relative to its export performance.

The July data will likely be closely watched by market participants and policymakers, as a persistently large trade deficit can influence currency dynamics, external financing needs, and broader economic planning in the second half of 2026.

Both the June and July figures are measured on a year-over-year basis, comparing each month’s export performance with the same month a year prior. The sharp moderation from June’s surge suggests that some of the earlier momentum in external demand has eased, even as export activity remains on an upward trajectory relative to last year. Policymakers and market participants are likely to watch upcoming releases closely to see whether July’s pullback proves temporary or signals a broader cooling in export growth.

Investors also looked ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole for signals on the future path of US interest rates.

In Japan, fresh data showed the unemployment rate declined to 2.4% in July, its lowest level in a year, while Tokyo’s inflation rate accelerated in August to a five-month high.

On the corporate front, notable gainers included Advantest (up 1.4%), Taiyo Yuden (2.2%), and Tokyo Electron (1.1%). In other company news, Mizuho Bank has filed a lawsuit against Radiant World in Singapore’s Supreme Court, amid allegations that the iron ore trader submitted falsified documents to banks in order to secure financing.