The decline in the surplus suggests that either export momentum has cooled, imports have picked up, or a combination of both, softening the robust trade cushion seen in June. While Brazil continues to post a positive trade balance, the narrower July outcome may influence expectations for the country’s external accounts and could be watched closely by analysts assessing the trajectory of Brazil’s trade performance in the second half of 2026.

Yields rose alongside wholesale fuel prices as markets reassessed the odds that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize. Adding to the pressure, a series of hawkish comments from FOMC members were underscored by a report indicating that Fed Chair Warsh is prepared to hike rates if inflation continues to climb.

Financial stocks weakened, with Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and American Express each dropping more than 1%. Credit‑sensitive hyperscalers also traded mostly lower, with Alphabet down 1%.

In the tech sector, Western Digital plunged 12% after issuing disappointing guidance. Sandisk also struggled, losing nearly 6% as its results fell short of elevated expectations for memory producers.

SpaceX, meanwhile, rebounded to close 2% higher as approximately $101 billion worth of its shares came off post‑IPO lockup.

The Forest Products Association of Canada said these trade measures delivered an additional setback to an industry already running below capacity amid production curtailments and mill closures, even as Ottawa has extended support programs. The US Lumber Coalition, for its part, argued that Canada’s surplus production capacity continues to distort market dynamics.

At the same time, mortgage rates rose to their highest level in a year, according to Freddie Mac, while mortgage applications declined in the final weeks of July, signaling weakening homebuying activity. Demand for lumber was further constrained by softer construction spending on lumber-intensive single-family housing, which fell 3.3% year-on-year in June.

The month‑on‑month shift of €1.3 billion suggests a significant deterioration in the Exchequer’s cash position between June and July. While the figures highlight growing fiscal pressure over the summer period, no additional detail on the drivers behind the swing was provided in the latest release. Investors and policymakers will be watching upcoming data closely to see whether July’s deficit proves temporary or signals a more persistent trend in Ireland’s public finances.

Mortgage rates have continued to climb amid heightened inflation concerns, driven by the ongoing war with Iran and the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged. The resulting increase in borrowing costs has further strained housing affordability, keeping many potential buyers out of the market.

Reflecting this pressure, applications for new mortgages declined in the final two weeks of July, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. “While mortgage rates continue to influence affordability, the housing market is showing signs of adjustment, with listing prices modestly below year-ago levels and for-sale inventory improving from the limited supply seen in recent years,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

On the domestic front, Brazil created a net 145,161 formal jobs in June, far exceeding expectations of 115,000. This robust labor market performance supports the view that monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer. At the same time, fiscal concerns persisted, amid signs of higher government spending and pressures on revenues linked to new US tariffs.

On the upside, Diageo jumped more than 5.5% after unveiling a restructuring plan, guiding for flat sales this year and announcing $1 billion in cost savings over the next three years. Persimmon added more than 3% after posting better-than-expected earnings and reiterating the upper end of its full-year home completion guidance.

The small increase in the 8-week bill yield suggests a slightly higher return demanded by investors for very short-term U.S. government debt. While the move is incremental, such changes are closely watched by market participants as they can reflect evolving expectations for short-term interest rates and liquidity conditions in the U.S. money markets.

This slight uptick suggests a modest firming in very short-term funding rates, often watched by investors as a barometer of near-term expectations for Federal Reserve policy and liquidity conditions. While the move is small, shifts in bill yields can influence cash management strategies for institutional investors and short-duration fixed-income positioning.

While the 0.1 percentage point decline signals only a modest adjustment, the latest reading still points to robust underlying growth in the U.S. economy. The small downward move may reflect incremental changes in recent economic data, but it does not significantly alter the overall picture of strong activity captured by the model in the third quarter. Investors and policymakers will be watching subsequent updates closely to see whether this slight softening marks the start of a broader trend or simply a minor recalibration within an otherwise solid expansion.

While Brazil is expected to produce a record crop of more than 70 million bags this season, the overall balance between supply and demand remains tight, especially for higher‑quality beans. Traders are particularly worried that rains in key producing regions—such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo—during June and July may have undermined the quality of part of the harvest.

Reflecting the supply strain, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5‑year low of 251,417 bags as of August 7, a steep drop from 754,516 bags a year earlier. At the same time, Brazilian growers continue to sell their coffee only gradually, further restricting near‑term availability. Looking ahead, the developing “super” El Niño is seen as a major risk factor for next year’s crop.

The move from 28B to 33B suggests that storage operators are adding more gas to reserves, a trend that can influence expectations for future supply-demand balance and price volatility, particularly ahead of peak seasonal consumption. While the data do not provide details on regional changes or comparisons with historical averages, the upward shift in total storage points to a more comfortable stock position than at the previous measurement.

Market participants will be watching upcoming storage reports closely to see whether this stronger build continues, as sustained increases could ease concerns over tight supply conditions later in the year, while any slowdown in injections may revive pressure on prices and winter risk assessments.

Oil prices advanced as markets remained cautious over Iran–Oman talks. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait declined following Houthi claims of a missile strike on an oil tanker. The rise in crude prices pushed bond yields higher, while credit-sensitive stocks hovered near the flatline.

Among individual names, Canadian Natural Resources gained about 1.5% after second-quarter profit topped expectations, supported by stronger oil and natural gas prices. Lundin Mining slipped nearly 1.5% despite posting higher second-quarter revenue. Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM, +0.5%) and Sun Life Financial (+0.3%) are scheduled to report earnings after the market close.

Shopify rose 0.5% after at least six brokerages raised their price targets. In contrast, Celestica tumbled 13% after it priced a common share offering at a steep discount to the prior session’s closing price.

The figures highlight a sudden shift in momentum within the wholesale sector. While May 2026 had marked solid month-over-month growth compared with April, June’s contraction indicates that demand or inventory dynamics may have cooled quickly heading into the summer. The comparison is based on changes from one month to the next, with the latest reading measuring June’s performance against May, and the previous figure reflecting May’s change versus April.

The moderation from 0.3% to 0.2% suggests wholesalers continued to build stock, but at a marginally slower pace. While still positive, the softer increase may indicate a cautious approach to inventory accumulation as businesses adjust orders and stock levels in response to evolving demand conditions. Investors and analysts often monitor wholesale inventories as a signal for future production trends and potential pressure on supply chains or pricing.

With June marking a second consecutive month of inventory growth, the data will feed into broader assessments of U.S. economic momentum in mid-2026, particularly in relation to consumer demand and business investment. Any sustained shift in the pace of stock building could have implications for GDP calculations and corporate earnings in sectors closely tied to wholesale activity.

Financial stocks were mostly lower. BB Seguridade slipped nearly 1%. Bradesco also declined close to 1% despite posting its tenth consecutive quarter of profit growth, as investors concentrated on signs of weaker credit quality. In contrast, Itaú added around 1%, extending gains after releasing strong quarterly results. Axia advanced more than 1.5% following a recovery in net profit. Petrobras climbed nearly 1% ahead of its earnings report, supported by higher oil prices.

Treasury yields held their recent decline, moving broadly in line with softer energy prices and signaling reduced concern that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year. This modest easing in the macro backdrop came alongside generally solid corporate results: Eli Lilly extended yesterday’s earnings-fueled rally, while Johnson & Johnson and Goldman Sachs each advanced about 1%.

By contrast, chipmakers sold off sharply, prolonging their recent volatility and dragging the Nasdaq 100 lower by nearly 1%. Western Digital tumbled 17% after issuing weak guidance, and SanDisk slid almost 10% as its results fell short of heightened expectations for memory manufacturers. SpaceX shares were down as much as 1% ahead of the expiration of a post-IPO lockup period that will free roughly $101 billion in stock for potential sale.

On a month-over-month basis, the July increase suggests that conditions in Canada’s services sector are stabilizing compared with the sharper weakness seen in June 2026. The previous month’s reading of 47.10 had signaled a more pronounced contraction relative to May, while the move to 49.10 in July points to an environment that is closer to flat activity.

The comparison framework for the data underscores this shift: the “Actual” figure reflects the change in July relative to June, while the “Previous” captures June’s change versus May. Together, they show a services sector that, while still under pressure, is moving incrementally toward a potential return to growth if the upward trend continues in the coming months.

Policymakers emphasized, however, that both the pace and the magnitude of additional cuts will depend on incoming economic data and the inflation outlook. The committee also cited increased global uncertainty arising from conflicts in the Middle East and ambiguity surrounding monetary policy in advanced economies, underscoring the need for caution among emerging markets.

The move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision a week earlier to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, maintaining a wide interest rate differential that continues to lend support to the real.

At the same time, development work at part of Codelco’s flagship El Teniente mine may remain suspended for up to two years, further clouding the supply outlook. On the demand and positioning side, trading funds continued to build long positions on metal exchanges, reflecting scarcity in on-warrant inventories, declining visible stockpiles in China, and strong US buying ahead of a possible tariff announcement.

Recent data showed that more than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at US ports in July, the largest monthly inflow in over a decade. Similarly, deliverable copper stocks and SHFE inventories in China nearly halved over the month, falling to 69.3 thousand tonnes.