The rebound follows a prolonged period of weakness, with June’s data still showing industrial output down compared with a year earlier. The latest reading suggests that Estonian industry may be emerging from its recent downturn, with July breaking the negative trend and signaling a possible stabilization in demand and production conditions.

While the scale and breadth of the recovery across individual industrial branches are not detailed in the release, the move from a 4.50% decline to 2.30% growth within a month points to improving momentum. Analysts and investors will now be watching upcoming monthly data to see whether July’s positive reading proves to be the start of a sustained recovery in Estonia’s industrial sector or a temporary uptick after a weak first half of the year.

The July figure is calculated as a month‑over‑month comparison, measuring the change in industrial output relative to June 2026. Similarly, June’s -2.20% print had reflected the drop from May to June. The shift from negative to positive growth suggests a stabilisation in Estonia’s industrial activity mid‑summer, after earlier weakness. Investors and policymakers will now be watching upcoming releases to assess whether July’s rebound signals the start of a more durable recovery in the country’s industrial sector.

At home, Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti said inflation remains under control and urged stronger coordination among the government, the central bank, businesses, and economists to support economic growth.

Upside for the rupiah was limited by mounting concerns that El Niño could disrupt food supplies and drive prices higher in the coming months. Investor caution also persisted ahead of key data releases next week, including August foreign exchange reserves, consumer confidence, and July retail sales, which are expected to provide fresh signals on domestic demand and the policy outlook.

Even so, the rupiah remained on track for a fifth straight week of gains, up about 0.25% so far.

Upside momentum was capped, however, by elevated crude prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude hovering near $96 a barrel and heading for its strongest weekly gain since mid-July. Sentiment was also tempered by caution around India’s new closing-auction mechanism, after Sensex put option premiums spiked 400%–500% on Thursday when the indicative index briefly dropped 2.5%, prompting traders to pare positions and increase hedging.

In stock-specific action, Gland Pharma drew attention following reports that Fosun Pharma may offload up to a 5% stake, valued at 22.8 billion rupees, via a block deal. Among notable movers, IFCI climbed 5.2%, Angel One advanced 5%, and Reliance rose 2.1%. Despite Friday’s rebound, the benchmark remains down 0.7% week-to-date and is on course for a fourth consecutive weekly decline.

On the domestic front, South Korea reported a solid external position: the current account registered a $42.08 billion surplus in July, the second-largest monthly surplus on record and the biggest ever for that month, underpinned by resilient semiconductor-driven goods exports. Even so, the outlook for the won faces headwinds, as renewed US plans for targeted semiconductor tariffs tied to companies’ domestic production could pressure Korea’s trade dynamics, given the central role of chip exports in its external balance.

Persistently hot weather across the continental US has kept cooling demand elevated, bolstering gas consumption for power generation. At the same time, average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export terminals increased to 18.3 bcfd in early September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, as key facilities in Texas resumed full operations following maintenance.

These developments have aligned with firmer international demand for US LNG in Europe and Asia, where buyers are rebuilding inventories ahead of the winter heating season amid ongoing disruptions to LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf.

However, ample domestic supply continues to cap price gains. Gas inventories stood 5.2% above their five-year seasonal average as of August 28, while average production in the Lower 48 states remained near record highs.

At the same time, the latest USDA weekly report showed a net reduction of 829,600 metric tons in US corn sales for the 2025/26 marketing year in the week ended August 27, even as accumulated exports rose to 85.06 million tons, up from 83.49 million tons the previous week. Market participants are also closely tracking US crop conditions heading into harvest and are awaiting updated production and yield estimates from the USDA on September 11.

At the same time, uncertainty over tariffs has been prompting increased shipments into the United States, swelling Comex stockpiles to record levels and further tightening availability in other regions. On the demand side, renewed tensions between the US and Iran have raised concerns that persistently high energy prices could curb global economic activity and, in turn, dampen metals demand.

On the demand side, prospects brightened in India, where refiners booked record soyoil imports and the largest palm oil volumes in six months ahead of the festive season. Even so, palm oil futures were on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, weighed down by sluggish exports. Cargo surveyors estimated that Malaysia’s August shipments fell 6.5%–14.9% from July, while supply remained ample, with domestic inventories at a five-month high in July.

Upside momentum was partly restrained by rising oil prices, which intensified inflation concerns and bolstered expectations of further interest rate hikes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Investors were also positioning ahead of Singapore’s July retail sales report and key US employment data due later in the day.

Caution was evident as markets looked to upcoming Chinese economic releases, including consumer and producer price indices and trade figures scheduled for next week. Early notable gainers included Hong Kong Land (+4.2%), Yanzijiang Shipbuilding (+3.6%), City Developments (+2.4%), OCBC (+1.2%), and UOB (+1.1%). For the week, the index was on track for a 1.8% gain.

Even so, accumulated exports totaled 40.76 million tons, while outstanding sales were reported at 1.10 million tons. Demand for the new crop also stayed solid, with 2026/27 outstanding sales reaching 16.28 million tons.

China continued to secure US supplies, as private exporters reported sales of 192,000 tons for 2026/27 delivery on September 3, following purchases of 202,000 tons the previous day and 136,000 tons on September 1.

Traders are now focusing on US crop conditions as the harvest approaches. The most recent USDA report showed the share of the soybean crop rated good-to-excellent slipping by two percentage points to 58% for the week ended August 30.

Although President Trump suggested that further strikes on Tehran would not be prolonged, geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing disruptions to shipping are constraining LNG flows from the Gulf to Europe, slowing the pace at which gas inventories can be rebuilt.

As a result, Europe heads into the coming winter with unusually low gas stocks, heightening the risk of tighter competition for supplies and leaving the region more exposed to sharp price spikes during colder periods. Even after the latest pullback, European gas prices are still up more than 6% this week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain.

Those expectations have been strengthened by hawkish comments from BOJ officials and growing US pressure on Japan to support the yen through tighter monetary policy. BOJ board member Hajime Takata raised the prospect of larger-than-usual or consecutive rate hikes, while Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers must pay closer attention to upside risks to inflation. Markets currently expect the BOJ to deliver a 25-basis-point rate increase this month, followed by another hike in December.

Market participants are now focused on upcoming US employment data for further signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. At the same time, renewed conflict in the Gulf and rising oil prices are keeping inflation risks in the spotlight, potentially complicating the Fed’s decision-making.

On the fundamentals side, industrial demand for platinum is forecast to increase 9% this year to 2.24 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council. Valterra Platinum also pointed to China’s rapidly growing hydrogen-truck market as a potential new driver of demand, estimating that a 20% share for hydrogen-powered trucks in the global fleet could generate an additional 6 million ounces of platinum demand worldwide.

Technology shares worldwide gained overnight after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he would favor holding rates steady if inflation continues to cool. His remarks eased fears of tighter monetary policy and helped strengthen risk appetite.

Sentiment toward the tech sector was further bolstered by reports that Chinese AI company Moonshot AI has confidentially filed for a Hong Kong IPO that could raise about US$3 billion.

Among major movers, Tencent Holdings rose around 2.2% after an HKEX filing showed it repurchased 229,000 shares for HK$100.3 million on September 3. Other notable tech gainers included MiniMax (+7.8%), Xiaomi (+3.9%), and Meituan (+3.7%).

Financial stocks also advanced, adding roughly 2.4%, led by AIA Group (+1.4%), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (+1.5%), and China Resources Land (+2.4%).

Gains, however, were capped by caution ahead of key domestic data due next week, including August foreign exchange reserves, consumer confidence, and July retail sales. Investor worries over inflation also persisted after August price growth accelerated, amid concerns that potential El Niño–related disruptions could pressure food supplies. Among notable movers were Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (up 1.7%), Mitra Adiperkasa (1.1%), and Bumi Resources (1.0%). For the week, the index remained on track to post solid gains of about 2.7%, reversing earlier declines.

Investors also closely tracked sharp movements in the yen, which has strengthened markedly in recent days on expectations of more aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Market participants remained alert for any signs of official intervention to support the currency. Equity indexes in Japan, South Korea, China, and Hong Kong all advanced, led by gains in technology shares across the region.

In Australia, stronger second-quarter GDP figures have reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia could resume tightening after three rate increases earlier this year. Market pricing now reflects a 58% probability of a hike this month, up from 49% previously, while a November increase is fully priced in. Interest rate swaps also suggest an additional 40 basis points of tightening next year, equivalent to roughly one and a half rate hikes. The hawkish outlook has been bolstered further by renewed conflict in the Gulf, which has driven oil prices higher and heightened inflation concerns.

Markets also assessed the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year, amid hawkish comments from BOJ officials and growing US pressure on Tokyo to bolster the yen through tighter monetary policy. In addition, the yen drew support from broad-based dollar weakness after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would back keeping US interest rates unchanged if inflationary pressures continue to ease.

Semiconductor stocks outperformed, with Samsung Electronics advancing more than 1% and SK hynix nearly 3%. Samsung narrowed its HBM market-share gap with SK hynix in the second quarter, reinforcing a positive outlook for Korea’s flagship chip industry. Additional gains were seen in SK Square (2.1%), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (2.4%), Samsung SDI (2.5%), and LG Electronics (1.4%).

However, renewed US plans for targeted semiconductor tariffs tied to companies’ domestic production could cap further upside, with details on tariff levels and potential exemptions still pending.

Among major retail categories, sales of gems, precious metals, and related products recorded the strongest growth, surging 28.1% year-on-year. Sales of other goods as well as wood and construction materials also posted solid increases. By contrast, automobile sales were a clear weak spot, declining on both a monthly and an annual basis in August.

On a month-on-month basis, total retail sales of goods and consumer services rose 1.6%. Overall, total retail sales reached VND 5,235.5 trillion in the first eight months, up 13.3% from a year earlier, with real growth (excluding price effects) estimated at 7.6%.

The figures are based on year-over-year comparisons, measuring August 2026 sales against August 2025, while the previous reading compares July 2026 with July 2025. The modest acceleration suggests that consumer spending has not only held up but strengthened further, providing ongoing support to Vietnam’s broader economic activity.

For investors and analysts tracking Vietnam’s growth story, the persistent double-digit expansion in retail sales signals a solid consumer base and may reinforce expectations for continued internal demand-driven growth into the latter part of 2026.

In contrast, transport inflation accelerated to 13.5% from 11.9%, driven by renewed fuel price increases in the latter half of August. Faster price growth was also recorded in alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.3% vs. 6%), furnishings and household equipment (4.1% vs. 3.9%), and health (5% vs. 4.8%).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6%, the largest increase since April, after a 0.1% gain in July and above the expected 0.5% rise. Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, matching forecasts. For the January–August period, average inflation stood at 5.2%, remaining above the government’s 2%–4% target range.