In corporate earnings, JPMorgan slipped 0.2% after trimming its net interest income guidance, and Wells Fargo dropped 4.8% on weaker-than-expected results. Johnson & Johnson edged 0.4% lower despite raising its 2026 revenue outlook. On the upside, BlackRock rose 4% and Citigroup added 1.6% on the back of strong earnings. American Airlines surged 6.5% following reports that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby floated the possibility of a merger. Novo Nordisk’s US-listed shares gained 2.7% after the company announced a partnership with OpenAI.

The Fund also highlighted that the energy supply shock stemming from the Iran-related tensions is comparable in magnitude to the 1974 oil crisis, though it emphasized that the global economy is now more resilient and better able to absorb such disruptions.

Regionally, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. The euro area is forecast to expand by just 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. The UK and Japan are also set for subdued growth, with the UK expected to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, and Japan by 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027.

Global inflation is projected to edge up slightly in 2026 before easing again in 2027.

Prospects for a ceasefire and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pressured oil prices, easing inflation concerns and tempering expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. On the data front, US producer prices rose 0.5% in March, undershooting forecasts, while ADP data showed the economy added 39,250 jobs in the week ending March 28, marking a fourth consecutive week of solid job gains.

The Redbook indicator compares retail sales in the current month to the same month a year earlier, offering a timely snapshot of consumer activity. The latest reading suggests that while spending remains solid on an annual basis, the pace of growth has softened compared with the prior month’s year-over-year change. This deceleration may draw attention from analysts watching for signs of shifting consumer strength in the U.S. economy.

Expectations for a possible long-term ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz put downward pressure on oil prices, reducing inflationary risks and dampening bets on a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy stance.

On the data front, US producer prices rose 0.5% in March, undershooting the forecast 1.1% gain. Separately, ADP figures showed that the US economy added 39,250 jobs in the week ending March 28, marking a fourth consecutive week of solid employment growth.

The reduction in the deficit suggests that the gap between foreign currency inflows and outflows has slightly decreased over the period. While the figures are still preliminary and limited in scope, the shift from -15M to -10M may be seen by market participants as a tentative sign of improved trade or income flows. Investors and policymakers will be watching subsequent releases closely to assess whether this marks the beginning of a more sustained trend toward external balance stabilization.

With the current account still in deficit, underlying structural challenges persist, but the latest data offer a small indication of easing pressure on Egypt’s external position. Further detail on the components of the current account will be key to understanding the durability and drivers of this improvement.

On the services side, prices were flat after a 0.3% increase in February. Within this category, a 1.3% rise in transportation and warehousing costs and a 0.1% uptick in other final demand services offset a 0.3% decline in trade service margins.

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index increased 4%, the largest annual gain since February 2023 but still below the 4.6% expected by markets. The core index, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.2% month-over-month—slower than the 0.5% increases recorded in both January and February—and was up 3.6% year-over-year.

On a month-over-month basis, the data show that producer prices for core categories are still rising, but at a slower pace than in the previous period. The comparison indicates that the current 0.2% gain reflects a more moderate step-up in producer costs relative to February’s stronger 0.5% advance, which was measured against January.

The latest figures, updated on 14 April 2026, suggest some relief in cost pressures at earlier stages of the production chain, a development that could eventually filter through to consumer prices if the trend persists. Investors and policymakers will be watching subsequent monthly releases closely to assess whether March’s softer reading marks the start of a more sustained cooling in core producer inflation.

February’s reading, which was a 3.5% increase versus February 2025, had suggested a modest firming in core producer prices. The latest uptick to 3.6% indicates that underlying cost pressures in the production sector remain elevated, with no clear sign yet of a decisive slowdown.

With the indicator moving higher on a year-over-year basis for a second consecutive month, investors and policymakers may interpret the data as evidence that disinflation in core producer costs is progressing unevenly, potentially complicating the outlook for future monetary policy decisions.

Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, is closely watched as a gauge of pipeline inflation that can eventually feed into consumer prices. The March reading, updated on 14 April 2026, reflects a comparison of price changes in March 2026 versus March 2025, while the previous 3.9% figure for February was measured against February 2025.

Although the decline is marginal, the move suggests that producer-level inflation is not reaccelerating and may support expectations that broader price pressures could gradually ease. Market participants and policymakers will be monitoring upcoming data to gauge whether this downtrend in core producer inflation becomes more firmly established in the coming months.

The figures, measured on a year-over-year basis, show that producer prices in March 2026 were 4.0% higher than in March 2025, while February’s reading reflected a 3.4% increase versus February 2025. The climb in the PPI suggests that cost pressures at the producer level are intensifying, which can later filter through to consumer prices and influence monetary policy expectations.

On a month‑over‑month basis, the “actual” figure for March reflects the change in producer prices relative to February, while February’s reading is measured against January. The deceleration from 0.7% to 0.5% suggests that upstream inflationary pressures, while still present, may be losing some momentum, a development closely watched by markets and policymakers for its potential implications on future consumer inflation and interest rate expectations.

Core PPI excludes volatile food and energy components and is closely watched by markets as an early signal of broader price trends. On a month-over-month basis, the March reading shows that price increases at the producer level are decelerating relative to the previous month, when prices rose three times faster.

This softer pace in March may be interpreted by investors and policymakers as a tentative sign of easing cost pressures in the production pipeline, though the sustainability of this trend will depend on subsequent monthly data and broader economic conditions.

The improvement in the indicator suggests that hiring activity has strengthened compared with the prior reading, potentially signaling firmer labor demand in parts of the US economy. While the ADP series is separate from official government payroll data, investors and analysts often watch its direction and changes in magnitude for early hints about broader employment trends.

The move from 26.00K to 39.30K may encourage market participants who are looking for signs that the job market remains resilient, though the relatively modest absolute level also underscores that hiring momentum is not yet robust by historical standards. Upcoming labor data will be watched closely to see whether this upward shift in ADP employment gains can be sustained.

The figures are based on a year‑over‑year comparison, measuring February’s performance against the same month a year earlier. January’s indicator similarly reflected growth versus January of the previous year. While the sector remains in positive territory, the pronounced slowdown suggests underlying demand in services has cooled heading into late Q1 2026, potentially signaling a more cautious outlook for the broader Brazilian economy if the trend persists.

The data are based on a month-over-month comparison, where the February reading of 0.1% reflects the change from January, and the January figure of 0.2% captures the change from December. The deceleration may signal a more cautious phase for Brazil’s service-driven segments, an area closely watched by investors as a key barometer of domestic demand and broader economic resilience.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the current figure compares the change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 to the third quarter of 2025, while the previous 2.30% figure represented the change from the second to the third quarter of 2025. The data point to a marked strengthening in Bahrain’s short-term growth momentum as 2025 drew to a close.

The data are based on a year-over-year comparison, where the current reading reflects the change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 relative to the same period a year earlier. Similarly, the previous figure measures the third quarter of 2025 against the third quarter of 2024. The pickup from 4.00% to 4.60% suggests improving momentum in Bahrain’s growth trajectory heading into 2026.