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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Despite the possibility that the market could react with gains to a slowdown in U.S. inflation, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another outflow of $424.66 million, the largest single-day outflow in July. This movement completely reversed last week's modest inflow of $197.4 million, which had ended an eight-week streak of outflows for the first time and raised cautious hopes for a recovery in institutional demand. Since the beginning of the year, net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have reached approximately $5.8 billion, while June remains the worst month in the history of these products, with outflows totaling $4.51 billion.

The fragility of the renewed sell-off is also confirmed by overall market sentiment. The current consensus is clearly shifting toward a further decline in Bitcoin toward the $50,000 level rather than a continuation of the current upward move. Notably, price action has moved almost independently of institutional flows over the past week: Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 amid dollar weakness and rising Asian equity markets, while capital continued to leave the market through ETF channels. Many analysts view this disconnect between price movement and actual institutional positioning as a structural change compared with 2024 and early 2025, when price appreciation and ETF inflows moved in sync and reinforced each other.

At the same time, another notable shift is taking place. The volume of Bitcoin and Ether mentions on social media has fallen to a 12-month low, reaching levels not seen since 2020. Bitcoin is currently generating around 130,000 weekly mentions compared with the peak of 930,000 during the 2021 cycle, while Ether is holding near 40,000 mentions compared with more than 670,000 during the same period.

All of this once again confirms that a significant trend reversal should not be expected in the near term, and any gains in the cryptocurrency market are likely to be followed by renewed large-scale selling.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1:

Bitcoin will be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around $62,900, with a target of rising toward $63,200. Around $63,200, long positions will be closed and selling will be considered on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $62,500 if there is no market reaction to a downward breakout, with a potential move back toward $62,900 and $63,200.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1:

Bitcoin will be sold today if the price reaches the entry level around $62,500, with a target of declining toward $62,000. Around $62,000, short positions will be closed and buying will be considered on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $62,900 if there is no market reaction to an upward breakout, with a potential move back toward $62,500 and $62,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1:

Ether will be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around $1,790, with a target of rising toward $1,807. Around $1,807, long positions will be closed and selling will be considered on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Ether can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,778 if there is no market reaction to a downward breakout, with a potential move back toward $1,790 and $1,807.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1:

Ether will be sold today if the price reaches the entry level around $1,778, with a target of declining toward $1,759. Around $1,759, short positions will be closed and buying will be considered on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Ether can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,790 if there is no market reaction to an upward breakout, with a potential move back toward $1,778 and $1,759.

The test of the 162.22 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by only 5 points.

Such weak pressure on the dollar can be explained by the fact that the market is awaiting a series of significant U.S. events in the second half of the day that could change the overall market outlook. The June Consumer Price Index and its core reading excluding food and energy will be released, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his semiannual testimony before Congress. The Japanese yen will react to these events through changes in yield differentials. Strong inflation data and a hawkish tone from Warsh could push USD/JPY higher due to rising U.S. yields, while weaker figures could send the pair lower.

Regarding the intraday strategy, the focus will primarily remain on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buying USD/JPY will be considered today if the price reaches the entry level around 162.26 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 162.55 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 162.55, long positions will be closed, and short positions may be opened in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential remains relatively limited.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

Buying USD/JPY will also be considered today if there are two consecutive tests of the 162.09 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 162.26 and 162.55 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Selling USD/JPY will be considered today after a break below the 162.09 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.74, where short positions will be closed and long positions may be opened in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair is expected to return if there is intervention by the central bank.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

Selling USD/JPY will also be considered today if there are two consecutive tests of the 162.26 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 162.09 and 161.74 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, traders can lose their entire deposit very quickly, especially when proper money management is not used and large trading volumes are involved.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3369 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 10 points, and the move ended there.

The absence of UK economic data predictably led to a small increase in buying interest for the British pound after the strong sell-off seen earlier. At the moment, technical analysis also points to uncertainty: the pound is consolidating after a sharp decline, and nothing more. Therefore, the pair's further direction will depend on U.S. economic data.

The second half of the day promises to be highly eventful for the pound, as the United States will release June inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his semiannual testimony before Congress. The Consumer Price Index and the core reading excluding food and energy will shape expectations regarding Fed interest rate policy and therefore directly influence the strength of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the British currency lacks its own drivers, meaning its dynamics will be determined entirely by the U.S. agenda. A persistently high inflation reading and hawkish comments from Warsh could strengthen the dollar and push GBP/USD lower, while weaker data and a cautious tone from the Fed Chair would give the pair a chance to rebound.

Regarding the intraday strategy, the focus will primarily remain on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buying the pound will be considered today if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3390 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.3415 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3415, long positions will be closed, and short positions may be opened in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the level.

A strong rise in the pound today can be expected if the Fed adopts a dovish tone.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

Buying the pound will also be considered today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3371 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3390 and 1.3415 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Selling the pound will be considered today after a break below the 1.3371 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3340, where short positions will be closed and long positions may be opened in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pound is expected to increase if the Fed takes a more hawkish stance.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

Selling the pound will also be considered today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3390 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3371 and 1.3340 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, it is possible to lose the entire deposit very quickly, especially when proper money management is not used and large trading volumes are involved.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1402 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

In the absence of domestic market drivers and fundamental data, the pair's direction is determined by the geopolitical backdrop, which remains concerning. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran are maintaining a high risk premium. This traditionally weighs on risk assets and limits currencies such as the euro.

In addition, ahead of the key U.S. inflation data, traders prefer to remain cautious. The June Consumer Price Index and its core reading excluding food and energy will be released shortly, followed by Kevin Warsh's semiannual testimony before Congress. Inflation data is critical because it determines the future path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, while the core index is particularly important as it reflects underlying price pressures without the impact of volatile components. For the single currency, the implications are straightforward: figures above forecasts would strengthen the dollar and pressure EUR/USD, while weaker inflation would support the euro.

Warsh's speech also deserves special attention, as his assessment of the economy and hints regarding the regulator's future actions could significantly move the pair. A more hawkish stance from the Fed official would provide another reason to buy the dollar and sell the euro.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1409 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.1440. At 1.1440, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be expected today if the Fed adopts a dovish tone.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1395 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1409 and 1.1440 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1395 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1365, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if U.S. inflation rises sharply.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1409 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1395 and 1.1365 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

With no eurozone economic data released, the euro gained only slightly against the dollar today, while market conditions remained rather tense. Since the single currency lacked its own drivers, its direction was determined by external factors, which continued to be dominated by geopolitical developments. The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran continued to weigh on risk assets. As one of these assets, the euro remained under pressure, which limited its recovery to modest levels. Persistent tensions in the Middle East are likely to sustain demand for the safe-haven dollar, limiting the euro's recovery potential.

During the second half of the day, the balance of power in the market may change significantly, as a series of important events from the United States is scheduled. The main focus will be on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI excluding food and energy, as well as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semiannual testimony before Congress. The Consumer Price Index reflects the pace of inflation and directly influences interest rate expectations, while the core indicator is considered a more reliable benchmark because it excludes volatile components. The stronger the figures are, the stronger the argument in favor of a more restrictive Fed policy and the greater the support for the U.S. dollar.

For the euro and the pound, these releases present a direct risk. Strong inflation combined with a hawkish tone from Warsh could strengthen the dollar and pressure EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower, while slowing price growth and cautious remarks from the Fed Chair would give both European currencies an opportunity to recover. Before the data is released, the pairs are likely to trade cautiously, but a sharp increase in volatility is possible during the second half of the day.

If the economic data comes in strong, the Momentum strategy will be prioritized. If the market does not react to the data, the Mean Reversion strategy will continue to be used.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buying a breakout above 1.1402 could lead to a rise toward 1.1422 and 1.1442.
• Selling a breakout below 1.1380 could lead to a decline toward 1.1360 and 1.1345.

GBP/USD

• Buying a breakout above 1.3400 could lead to a rise toward 1.3430 and 1.3460.
• Selling a breakout below 1.3360 could lead to a decline toward 1.3340 and 1.3323.

USD/JPY

• Buying a breakout above 162.22 could lead to a rise toward 162.44 and 162.64.
• Selling a breakout below 161.92 could trigger a decline in the dollar toward 161.62 and 161.33.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return to Level) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Selling opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout above 1.1411 followed by a return below this level.
• Buying opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout below 1.1380 followed by a return to this level.

GBP/USD

• Selling opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout above 1.3393 followed by a return below this level.
• Buying opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout below 1.3357 followed by a return to this level.

AUD/USD

• Selling opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout above 0.6965 followed by a return below this level.
• Buying opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout below 0.6935 followed by a return to this level.

USD/CAD

• Selling opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout above 1.4102 followed by a return below this level.
• Buying opportunities will be considered after a failed breakout below 1.4069 followed by a return to this level.

Gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to recover and continues to trade near the two-week low reached earlier on Tuesday. Nevertheless, during the first half of the European session, the precious metal maintains a positive tone, holding above the psychologically important $4,000 level. However, it remains vulnerable to further downside, with a potential retest of the yearly low around $3,940, recorded on June 30.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), maintaining a bearish outlook within a descending channel. At the same time, the MACD histogram has narrowed slightly, indicating weakening bearish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 39, below the neutral level, confirming that the current recovery remains fragile and does not yet signal a confirmed bullish reversal.

Accordingly, any further upside is likely to encounter selling pressure and remain limited to the $4,100 level. A sustained breakout above this level could trigger additional gains driven by short covering, sending the price toward resistance at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), located around $4,220. More sustained buying would pave the way toward the key resistance provided by the 200-day SMA near $4,500, a break above which would weaken the bearish outlook.

On the other hand, key support is located near the yearly low at $3,940. A decisive move back to this area followed by a break below it would open the way for a deeper decline.

Gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to recover and continues to trade near the almost two-week low reached earlier on Tuesday. Nevertheless, during the first half of the European session, the metal remained positive, holding above the psychologically important $4,000 level amid mixed market signals.

The U.S. dollar is edging lower as market participants remain cautious ahead of the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first appearance before Congress. This is providing some support for the precious metal. At the same time, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, along with growing expectations of another Fed rate hike, are preventing a more pronounced decline in the U.S. dollar and limiting gold's upward potential.

Later today, the U.S. CPI report will be released. Headline inflation is expected to slow, largely due to the sharp decline in gasoline prices during June. However, the market's primary focus will be on the core CPI, which is considered the key gauge of underlying inflation. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first semiannual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee may influence expectations regarding the future path of interest rates. These expectations, in turn, are likely to determine the U.S. dollar's short-term direction and could provide a significant catalyst for gold.

Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices to a new monthly high, fueling inflation concerns and increasing the likelihood that U.S. interest rates will remain elevated for longer.On Monday, U.S. forces carried out strikes against Iran for the third consecutive night after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched attacks on U.S. facilities in the region, while two UAE oil tankers were struck by Iranian cruise missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. The market quickly priced in a geopolitical risk premium, providing additional support for the U.S. dollar.Given these fundamental factors, the downward scenario for gold remains the more likely outcome. Therefore, any further recovery may be viewed as a selling opportunity. The XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to further losses, with the next downward target being a retest of the yearly low around $3,940, recorded on June 30.

From a technical perspective, the precious metal continues to trade below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), maintaining a bearish outlook. Momentum indicators also remain in negative territory, confirming that sellers retain control. Any further recovery is likely to encounter resistance around the $4,100 psychological level.

On the other hand, immediate support is located at $4,000, followed by $3,960, while a break below these levels would expose the yearly low near $3,940.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish despite the bulls' attempts to regain control over the past two weeks. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave has not yet surpassed the previous high and is still developing. The geopolitical situation has deteriorated again as Iran and the United States have resumed blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and active military operations. It will only be possible to conclude that the bearish trend has ended after a break above the 1.1620 high or after the formation of two consecutive bullish waves.

The news background on Monday was focused entirely on geopolitical developments, and there were plenty of them. Another Iranian attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz proved to be the final straw for Donald Trump. The U.S. president announced yesterday the resumption of the blockade of Iranian ports, the cancellation of authorization for Iranian oil exports, and the renewal of military strikes against Iran. As a result, all negotiations have effectively been suspended, and the military conflict between Iran and the United States has resumed. Reports also indicate that Washington intends to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz by deploying its naval forces to secure the shipping route. At the same time, Donald Trump plans to charge a fee to any vessel passing through the strait under U.S. military protection. In any case, oil prices are likely to rise again because the strait is currently closed, and in the future, ships may have to pay either Iran or the United States for safe passage. However, if military operations resume in the Persian Gulf, few vessels will be willing to transit the strait.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade within a sideways range. Consolidation below the 1.1411 level supports expectations of a renewed decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1291. However, price has been changing direction too frequently recently, while overall trading activity remains subdued. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any indicator. The descending trend channel remains intact.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 12,228 long positions and opened 5,098 short positions. During the seven weeks spanning February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war involving Iran. Over the past fifteen weeks, positioning has become more balanced amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. Speculators currently hold a total of 223,000 long positions and 239,000 short positions.

Overall, from a long-term perspective, large institutional traders continue to view the euro favorably. Naturally, the wide range of global developments seen in recent years continues to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market participants remain focused on developments in the Middle East, where military operations have been suspended and negotiations have begun that could eventually lead to a lasting peace. However, the market continues to largely ignore the improvement in geopolitical conditions, as well as many other factors that support the euro.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

• United States – ADP Employment Change (weekly) (12:15 UTC)
• United States – Consumer Price Index (CPI) (12:30 UTC)
• United States – Speech by Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for July 14 contains three scheduled events, two of which can be considered significant. The impact of the economic news flow on market sentiment is expected during the second half of Tuesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Long positions may be considered after a consolidation above the 1.1409 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. Short positions remain possible after a consolidation below the 1.1409 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1290. However, current market movements remain extremely weak, and the 1.1409 level has recently proven to be an unreliable source of trading signals.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and 1.1411–1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave exceeded the previous peak and continues to develop. Thus, the bulls remain on the offensive, although I expected this move approximately two to three weeks earlier. Better late than never. In my view, the bearish impulse that began in 2026 has ended, and only geopolitical developments can prevent the bulls from maintaining their advance.

The news background on Monday supported bearish traders due to a series of disappointing geopolitical developments. At present, it can be said that negotiations between Tehran and Washington have stalled, while military operations and blockades have resumed. As a result, the bears likely felt a renewed surge of confidence at the start of the new week. Today, the United States will release the important June inflation report, which could also support the bears. If the figure exceeds 3.8%, the result will be viewed as unfavorable. Inflation would then be slowing less than the market expects, and together with geopolitical tensions, traders may become even more convinced that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy further. Kevin Warsh could also add fuel to the fire when he addresses members of the U.S. Congress later today. His rhetoric and stance have likely not changed during the three weeks since the latest Fed meeting. If that is the case, the FOMC official may once again point to persistently high inflation, implying the need for a rate hike. Therefore, as of Tuesday morning, the probability of a stronger U.S. dollar appears relatively high.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair has returned to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3348. A rebound from this level, combined with a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator, would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and a resumption of growth toward the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. Consolidation below 1.3348 would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3277.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became less bearish during the latest reporting week, although it remains bearish overall. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,415, while the number of short positions declined by 6,829. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 45,000 versus 132,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, but unlike before, this dominance is no longer unquestioned because the news background has changed significantly. The bearish advantage is now nearly threefold.

I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States could be lengthy and difficult. There is also no guarantee that they will end with the signing of a nuclear agreement.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – ADP Employment Change (weekly) (12:15 UTC).
• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Speech by Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh (14:00 UTC).

On July 14, the economic calendar contains three events, two of which are considered important. The influence of the economic background on market sentiment is expected to be felt during the second half of Tuesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions became possible after a close below 1.3382 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3335 and 1.3298. These trades may still be held today. Long positions become possible on a rebound from either 1.3335 or 1.3298, targeting 1.3382.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3457–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Daily S&P 500 dynamics

That said, this is not a crash. The broad market has felt resilient all year thanks to the AI boom and strength in energy and industrials. The pain was concentrated in tech: the information technology sector became the S&P 500's main laggard, and chipmakers led the sell-off. Investors are increasingly asking whether the colossal AI capex is justified in an environment of rising global rates.

Earnings, however, remain in good shape. Morgan Stanley estimates the equal-weighted S&P 500 is showing EPS growth of more than 10%, the best print since the post-pandemic rebound. The bank continues to revise up forecasts for consumer and transport sectors, which are closely tied to economic momentum. FactSet goes further: S&P 500 earnings could rise from $275 per share in 2025 to $341 in 2026, marking a 24% gain. The only question is whether investors believe these numbers or are merely rotating capital out of three-digit winners into less heated names.

Equal-weighted index vs S&P 500 dynamics

Meanwhile, the Middle East escalation has revived Fed-tightening talk. CME Group data showed that the odds of a July rate rise jumped to 42% from 18% in early July, and the probability of two tightening moves by year-end rose to 56% from 34%. Silence from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh does little to clarify the outlook. JPMorgan warns that if he continues to avoid clear signals, other FOMC members may take the initiative.

The week to July 17 promises to be a trial. Investors must digest June CPI, PPI, consumer sentiment data, and the start of earnings season — with JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs reporting early. The US equity market has lived too long on optimistic narratives rather than hard data. Is it ready to face reality?

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has returned to fair value near 7,505. That level is now a red line for the broad index. A rebound from it would be a reason to add long positions. Conversely, a decisive break and hold below that level would be a cue for profit-taking, a trend reversal, and a switch to short positions.

The reason for the increase was President Trump's decision to reinstate the blockade on Iranian vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and to demand payment for all other cargoes. This involves a compensation of 20 percent of the cargo cost, or approximately $30 million for a fully loaded supertanker of oil. This came after U.S. military forces completed yet another round of strikes against Iran, which, according to available information, may last for several more days. The United Maritime Information Center reported that U.S. Central Command would start blocking all Iranian ports and coastal areas on Tuesday at 4 PM New York time.

And while Iran managed to export at least 57 million barrels of oil during the short period between two U.S. naval blockades, all this shows how high the stakes are for the global oil market now that restrictions are being reimposed. According to vessel tracking data, over the past week, six U.S. sanctioned supertankers passed through the Oman Strait into the Gulf of Oman with their transponders turned off, effectively operating in shadow mode.

Trump has outlined a new financial logic for the entire operation to protect the strait. He stated that the U.S. would receive compensation from the countries it helps protect shipping, mentioning Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. This is a fundamentally new element of the conflict, transforming the U.S. military presence in the region into a direct source of payments from allies.

The conflict continues to unfold on multiple levels simultaneously. The Iranian military has struck American targets in Kuwait with drones. The UAE has announced that two of its tankers were attacked in Omani waters while passing through the southern route of the strait. All this indicates that the conflict is showing clear signs of expanding well beyond the strait itself.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $81.38. This will allow targeting $86.70, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $92.54. In the event of a decline in oil, bears will attempt to take control over $78.70. If they succeed, a breakout from this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $76.30, with the potential to reach $73.80.

The stabilization follows a sharp two-day decline triggered by the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. Yesterday, President Trump renewed the blockade of Iran and demanded a 20 percent compensation for other cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing exchanges of strikes between the parties. Oil prices and European natural gas have surged, amplifying inflation concerns and the risk of tightening monetary policy, which is a negative factor for gold, as it does not yield interest.

The monetary backdrop for the metal is also appearing concerning. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated yesterday that the central bank may need to raise rates soon if core inflation continues to signal broad price pressures. The market probability of a quarter-point rate hike at the end of this month has risen to about 50 percent from less than 10 percent just recently. This marks a sharp reassessment of expectations in just a matter of days.

The extent of gold's decline this quarter remains a significant reminder of the correction's depth. This month, the metal's decline continued, following a 14 percent loss in the second quarter, the worst performance since 2013. The pressure is explained by growing expectations of Fed tightening amid a strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields. Last week, the assets in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) fell to their lowest level since September, further pressuring prices.

Despite all the negative macro factors, there are currently no signs of panic in the market. A picture is forming of a market at a crossroads between two opposing forces: short-term pressure from hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical escalation on one side, and structural confidence among Asian investors in the long-term growth potential on the other. The inflation data and Warsh's speech expected later today will serve as a crucial test of which of these forces will prevail in the coming weeks.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to target the nearest resistance at $4,062. This will allow aiming for $4,124, above which breaking through will be quite problematic. The most distant target will be around $4,186. In the event of a decline, bears will try to take control of $4,008. If they succeed, a breakout from this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $3,954, with the potential to reach $3,914.

Today, the MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 0.5% after intraday swings between gains and losses. South Korea's KOSPI experienced true roller-coaster action, plunging by more than 5% at one point before rebounding to finish up roughly 2.5%.

Oil has climbed for a second day and is the principal driver of market jitters. Brent rose by 2.8% to $85.64/bbl after US President Donald Trump resumed a US blockade of Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The bond market reacted in proportion to the news flow. Treasuries held onto losses after the US session as investors awaited inflation data due on Tuesday. On Monday, Treasuries fell after traders pushed the odds of a Fed hike in July to roughly 50% following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller that officials may need to raise borrowing costs to contain price pressures.

Vantage Global Prime summed up today's market reaction well: "Surging oil prices and yields are already speaking clearly to a worsening inflation outlook. That uncertainty helps explain today's wavering sentiment rather than a full-scale flight from risk, with investors increasingly alert to the deteriorating backdrop, but not yet pricing in the worst-case scenario." That captures the market mood: anxiety is rising, but panic has not set in.

Alongside geopolitics, markets are playing out their own drama around artificial intelligence. The Middle East escalation coincides with a growing number of investors asking whether the vast sums poured into AI will generate commensurate profits. Monday's sell-off in South Korea, driven by a re-rating of AI stories, spilled over into US markets and highlighted concerns that the AI boom may be overstretched.

Technically, the daily chart suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,544. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,574. Taking control of $7,600 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers must defend the $7,518 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474.

Currently, there are no significant news events in the cryptocurrency market, but attention has been drawn to Bolivia's decision to consider recognizing USDT as a means of payment. Clearly, the dollar shortage in Bolivia has pushed the authorities to take a step that would have seemed unthinkable a few years ago in a country with a history of a complete ban on cryptocurrencies.

Minister of Economy and Public Finance Jose Gabriel Espinoza stated at a briefing yesterday that the government is working on incorporating USDT into the national payment system so that the stablecoin circulates alongside the dollar and the boliviano. The project is still in the technical development stage. The mechanism of integration, launch timelines, and regulatory framework have yet to be approved, and no official rules have been published by the central bank or lawmakers.

This initiative relies on a sharp increase in the actual use of cryptocurrency by the population following the lifting of restrictions in June 2024. According to data, the volume of crypto transactions rose from $46.5 million in the first half of 2024 to $294 million during the same period of the following year, representing a cumulative increase of 630% after the ban was lifted. The reason for such demand is pragmatic rather than ideological. A prolonged dollar shortage in the country has pushed a significant portion of economic activity into informal currency exchange channels, and USDT has become a convenient way for businesses and citizens to maintain access to dollar-denominated value.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $62,900, with a target for growth to $63,200. At around $63,200, I plan to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $62,500 if there is no market reaction to the downside breakout, targeting $62,900 and $63,200.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at an entry point around $62,500, with a target of a drop to $62,000. At around $62,000, I plan to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $62,900 if there is no market reaction to the downside breakout, targeting $62,500 and $62,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,785, with a growth target of $1,807. At around $1,807, I plan to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $1,772 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout, targeting $1,785 and $1,807.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,772, targeting a drop to $1,747. At around $1,747, I plan to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $1,785 if there is no market reaction to the downside breakout, targeting $1,772 and $1,747.

The price test at 162.15 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 162.39.

The maritime blockade of the Iranian coastline has become a new trigger for demand for safe-haven assets and has strengthened the dollar, once again putting pressure on the Japanese yen. Amid the escalation, Tehran hinted at withdrawing from the memorandum with Washington, while Yemen launched another wave of missiles at Saudi Arabia, increasing overall tension in the region. The Japanese yen finds itself caught between two fires in this context. As a traditional safe haven, it could benefit from a surge in anxiety, but the simultaneous strengthening of the dollar and the threat of rising oil prices play against Japan, which is nearly entirely dependent on energy imports. However, if the dollar's rise accelerates USD/JPY too quickly, the issue of currency intervention might resurface, as the Bank of Japan has repeatedly entered the market to curb excessive weakening of the national currency during such stressful episodes.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 162.41 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 162.74 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 162.74, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back immediately (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 162.22, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 162.41 and 162.74.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 162.22 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.93, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers will return to the market at any moment; any hint from the central bank will suffice. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 162.41 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 162.22 and 161.93.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3381 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which I believe limited the pound's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pair.

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East yesterday heightened risk aversion and supported the dollar. In addition to the U.S. Navy's announced blockade of the Iranian coast and a new series of strikes, concerns were raised by Yemen, which launched a third wave of missiles at Saudi Arabia. The involvement of new participants increases the risk of destabilization across the region and the threat of oil supply disruptions, which naturally drives capital into safe-haven assets. Against this backdrop, the British pound becomes dependent on external forces and yields to the dollar. The flight from risk undermines demand for currencies sensitive to global economic conditions, while rising oil prices negatively impact the UK's trade balance as an energy importer. As long as the escalation in the region continues, GBP/USD has few reasons to rise.

The absence of macroeconomic reports from the UK today leaves the pound without its own drivers, making it a hostage to the external environment. Given the nervous external backdrop, the pound is unlikely to have the opportunity to recover and correct, although there remains a chance of a small upward spike in the pair during the first half of the day.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3369 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3395 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3395, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back immediately (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). We can only anticipate growth in the pound today if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3350 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3369 and 1.3395.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3350 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3311, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3369 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3350 and 1.3311.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1426 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined towards the target level of 1.1392.

Iran's imposition of a maritime blockade has sharply escalated tensions over global oil supplies and strengthened the dollar. According to media reports, the U.S. Navy has extended restrictions to all Iranian ports and oil terminals. Additional uncertainty has arisen from disputes surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, as the UN did not see legal grounds for the 20% fee proposed by Trump for passage, while Iran's Foreign Ministry labeled the country as the protector of this route.

It is evident that the euro is losing its footing in such an environment. The escalation of the conflict drives investors away from risk assets and into the dollar, and the EUR/USD pair declines as heightened risk is priced in.

Today, key points will include the publication of the German wholesale price index and the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Wholesale prices reflect how the cost of goods changes before they hit the shelves, and are considered a leading indicator of inflation that influences the central bank's rate expectations. However, the focus will be on Lagarde's speech, as her words traditionally set the sentiment for the euro. If the ECB head refrains from making bold statements, the euro will retain the chance for moderate recovery against the dollar, potentially mirroring yesterday's dynamics.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1402 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1428. At 1.1428, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can only anticipate growth in the euro following good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1385, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1402 and 1.1428.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1385 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1357, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the reports are poor. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1402, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1385 and 1.1357.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Yesterday, the dollar continued its active growth after the U.S. Navy announced a maritime blockade of the entire Iranian coastline. The restrictions come into effect on July 14 at 11:00 PM and cover all Iranian ports, oil terminals, and coastal areas, extending to vessels under any flag. Transit of neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz remains permitted, provided their routes are not connected to Iran. Such a sharp escalation has intensified the flight to safe assets, and the threat of oil supply disruptions has only spurred demand for the dollar as a safe haven.

For the euro and pound, this backdrop is negative. The rise in geopolitical premiums once again undermines risk appetite, while the prospect of a spike in oil prices negatively impacts European economies dependent on energy imports. As a result, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have come under pressure, reflecting traders moving into the most reliable instruments, and while the escalation continues, there are few reasons for a recovery.

Today, the European agenda appears light in the first half of the day, with attention focused on Germany's wholesale price index and the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. The wholesale price index reflects the dynamics of goods' costs at the wholesale level and serves as an early indicator of inflationary pressure in the Eurozone's largest economy, thus indirectly influencing expectations regarding the ECB's policy. Lagarde's speech is more important than the figures, as any signals from her regarding the future trajectory of rates can significantly move the euro.

In the absence of loud statements from Lagarde, the euro may, as yesterday, slightly recover against the dollar. As long as the ECB head refrains from using harsh language, the EUR/USD pair retains the potential to recover some of its losses in the broader backdrop. Much will depend on the tone of her speech, and only an unexpectedly hawkish or dovish message can disrupt this cautious scenario before the end of the European session.

As for the pound, today's lack of fundamental data for the UK in the first half of the day is unlikely to set a direction. Without fresh data on inflation, employment, or business activity, traders will have no reason to reconsider their positions, as these indicators usually guide expectations regarding the Bank of England's rates and determine the direction of the British currency. When such reports are absent, the pound becomes dependent on external forces, with market sentiment toward the dollar and the situation in the Middle East remaining key benchmarks.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, it is advisable to employ a Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1400, which may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1422 and 1.1442.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1380, which may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1365 and 1.1346.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3366, which may lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3405 and 1.3448.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3340, which may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3320 and 1.3290.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 162.45, which may lead to the dollar rising toward 162.64 and 162.92.
• Sell on a breakout below 162.22, which may lead to a sell-off of the dollar toward 161.92 and 161.60.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1411, when the price returns below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1376, when the price returns to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3772, when the price returns below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3343, when the price returns to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6947, when the price returns below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6924, when the price returns to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4149, when the price returns below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4118, when the price returns to this level.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1391, rebounding after hitting a low of 1.1375, which coincided with the lower band of both the uptrend channel and the downtrend channel. The euro is expected to continue rebounding in the coming hours and consolidate above 1.1375.

Given that the euro has been under downward pressure in recent days and is consolidating below the 21 SMA, it could continue to fall if the price breaks below the uptrend channel and could reach the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1352.

Technically, we believe the euro could rebound in the coming days, so we will look for buying opportunities with targets at 1.1418 and ultimately at the upper band of the uptrend channel around 1.1453.

A decisive break above 1.1455 could see the euro continue rising until it reaches the 200 EMA around 1.1480 and could ultimately reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around the psychological level of 1.15.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we believe the euro could continue to rise in the coming days. However, we should avoid buying if the price falls below the 5/8 Murray level, as this would signal a change in the overall trend.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,411, after rebounding from a low of $60,200—which also coincided with the lower band of the uptrend channel—and is likely to continue rising in the coming hours if the price consolidates above this zone.

The 0/8 Murray zone ($62,500) has historically served as strong support for Bitcoin. So, if it consolidates above this zone in the coming hours, we could look for opportunities to buy Bitcoin, with targets at the 200 EMA level, around $63,613.

If Bitcoin decisively breaks above the 200 EMA and consolidates above this zone, it could be considered a good signal to open long positions, as, technically, this could indicate a break above the strong resistance at $64,000 and a potential upward move toward the upper band of the uptrend channel, around $67,300.

Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks below $62,000, the outlook could turn negative, and we could expect it to reach the -1/8 Murray level, around $59,375.

Gold is trading around $4,014, rebounding after hitting a low of $3,982 during Tuesday's Asian session. From a technical perspective, gold is expected to continue rising in the coming hours until it reaches the 2/8 Murray level, around $4,060.

If gold consolidates above the psychological $4,000 level, the outlook could be positive, and the metal could reach the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) around $4,080.

According to the H4 chart, we can see that gold left a gap around $4,124. If the price continues to rise above $4,000 - $4,060, it is likely to fill this gap and could reach the 200-period EMA, around $4,211.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold has been trading within a bullish channel formed since June 24, suggesting that once it breaks above the psychological level of $4,000 in the coming days, it is likely to continue rising, which could be a clear buy signal.

A stop-loss could be placed below the low of June 30 or June 23, which is around $3,959, as this would indicate a break below the channel and could lead to a continued decline toward the 1/8 Murray level.

Only one macroeconomic report is scheduled for Tuesday—the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, this publication is significant, at least for the time being. If inflation in America begins to slow on its own, the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy. However, in light of recent events in the Middle East, oil prices are rising again, so inflation under these circumstances is unlikely to slow down significantly or for long. Nonetheless, it may decrease to 3.8% in June, which could relieve some pressure for a while.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday are the speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Of course, the market's primary focus will be on Warsh's speech in the U.S. Congress. If Warsh confirms readiness to raise the key interest rate, the dollar may strengthen. However, we do not believe that the Fed Chair will openly announce a readiness to tighten policy. Most likely, he will again highlight the issue of high inflation and express the regulator's concern regarding it. Without extreme necessity, Warsh will not promise a rate hike. As for Andrew Bailey, no important statements are expected, as the Bank of England adopted a fully wait-and-see position at the last meeting.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. signed an agreement remotely; however, too many important questions remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear issue," the war between Lebanon and Israel, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Theoretically, the market may fear a resumption of full-scale war, but that is clearly not enough for the dollar to begin rising actively again. After all, Tehran and Washington have not completely exited the negotiation process. However, recent events in the Middle East demonstrate the fragility of any ceasefires between the U.S. and Iran. Negotiations and deals could fall apart at any moment.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade more actively than over the past 9 days. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1354-1.1363, while the British pound can be traded from the areas of 1.3380-1.3386 and 1.3319-1.3331. Both currency pairs have turned downward in recent days.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair traded lower on Monday, allowing it to consolidate below the two-week ascending trend line. Essentially, only geopolitics could trigger a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, as the U.S. and Iran are again heading toward a long-term conflict instead of negotiations and lasting peace. The price of oil is rising once more, bringing the Federal Reserve closer to tightening monetary policy through inflation indicators. A new inflation report for the U.S. will be released today, but in light of the recent events in the Middle East, no conclusions can be drawn from it. For June, inflation may slow to 3.8%, but if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, it's unlikely that the consumer price index will decrease further. This means that the Fed will indeed have to raise the key rate. Given that the market is highly favorable to the dollar in 2026, a further rise in the American currency is quite possible. Much will depend today on the inflation report and Kevin Warsh's speech.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were generated on Monday. The price repeatedly bounced from the 1.3380-1.3386 area from above, then broke through it, only to bounce back from below. Many signals duplicated each other. Therefore, novice traders could have opened a total of two trades. The first was a buy that closed at a loss, while the second was a sell that yielded a small profit.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair may begin a new downward trend. The conflict in the Middle East is on pause, but Iran and the U.S. are speeding toward new escalation and long-term confrontation. Thus, even if the dollar does not show a new trend, it will become much more difficult for the British pound and the euro to rise in the near term, especially if the Fed confirms its readiness to tighten monetary policy and U.S. inflation slows only slightly or not at all.

On Tuesday, novice traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3319-1.3331 area or if it bounces from the 1.3380-1.3386 area. A price consolidation above the 1.3380-1.3386 area or a bounce from the 1.3319-1.3331 area would allow for opening long positions.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels to consider are 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Tuesday, Bank of England Chairman Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak in the UK, while in the U.S., Kevin Warsh will speak and the inflation report will be released. All three events are considered important.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no interesting movements in Monday's trading. In the first half of the day, the euro gained about 50 pips, while in the second half, the dollar gained about 50 pips. Essentially, the pair ended the day where it started. There were no significant fundamental or macroeconomic events to note, as there were no important occurrences in Europe or the U.S. on Monday. The only aspect worth mentioning is geopolitics, as the conflict in the Middle East has once again derailed the path toward long-term peace. However, it cannot be said that the dollar significantly strengthened its position due to this. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is simply stagnant. It has been in this state for about two weeks. The price has settled below the ascending trend line, but the descending trend remains relevant. As such, a new drop is much more likely than an increase. However, the price continues to move sideways at this time. Today, there will be at least two interesting events, so we can expect the volatility increase needed right now.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Monday. The first signal was to buy and turned out to be false, while the second signal was to sell and allowed for recouping the loss from the first trade. Both signals formed in the area of 1.1420-1.1432 and were later adjusted to the range of 1.1461-1.1466 by the end of the day.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the two-month downward trend continues, and over the past few weeks, we have only seen a weak upward correction. At this time, the ascending trend line has been breached, so the likelihood of the euro resuming its decline is high, and geopolitics may provide background support for the U.S. dollar.

On Tuesday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.1292 if the price consolidates below the 1.1354-1.1363 area. Buy trades can be initiated with a target of 1.1461-1.1466 if the price rebounds from the 1.1354-1.1363 area.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the levels 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1420-1.1432, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, and 1.1745-1.1754. On Tuesday, there are again no significant events scheduled in the Eurozone, but an important inflation report for June will be published in the U.S., along with the first of two speeches by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh in Congress. Thus, volatility may increase today compared to the past week.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.