I also mentioned in previous articles that an important and relatively rare "Three Drives Pattern" had formed, which triggered the upward movement. Thus, traders received a bullish signal, while the broader trend remained bullish throughout. Geopolitics supported the bulls, resulting in a nearly 300-point rally. At the moment, the ceasefire remains fragile, and the parties involved have yet to fully clarify who exactly the agreement applies to and where hostilities may still continue. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, as Iran accuses Israel and the U.S. of violating the ceasefire, while the U.S. accuses Iran of breaching agreements by planning to charge tankers passing through the strait. Nevertheless, the market believes that peace is possible. Another round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is expected soon.

The probability of a decline in both pairs remains relatively high, as the Middle East ceasefire is unstable. At the same time, the Three Drives Pattern, marked by a triangle on the chart, allowed bulls to go on the offensive—which is already a positive development. This pattern consists of three successive swings, each slightly lower than the previous one, signaling the exhaustion of a bearish impulse (in this case). Thus, technical analysis suggests decent chances for further growth of the pound, though bulls still require support from geopolitics. A bullish imbalance is forming this week, which will provide future opportunities to open new long positions.

The economic news background on Friday did not support bulls, yet they continued pushing higher due to momentum and gradually improving geopolitical conditions. The U.S. inflation report showed a sharp acceleration in consumer prices, which could force the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy. However, like many other recent factors, this was largely ignored by traders.

In the United States, the overall backdrop suggests that, in the long term, little supports a stronger dollar. Even the conflict with Iran does not significantly change this outlook. The situation for the U.S. currency remains challenging in the long term and only favorable in the short term. The labor market continues to weaken, the economy is increasingly approaching recession, and unlike the ECB and the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve is not planning monetary tightening in 2026. Additionally, a fourth major wave of protests against Donald Trump has taken place across the country. From an economic standpoint, there are no solid reasons for sustained dollar growth.

A bearish trend would require a strong and consistent positive backdrop for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Geopolitics has supported the dollar for over a month, but this support will eventually fade. It is hard to say when exactly—meaning the dollar could still rise for weeks or even months—but it will not last indefinitely.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.

• U.S. – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC)

On April 13, the economic calendar contains only one secondary event. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday, as traders continue to focus primarily on geopolitical developments.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish, but there are currently no fresh bullish patterns. Only the Three Drives Pattern previously signaled the potential for growth. The sharp decline in recent weeks was largely due to unfortunate circumstances—namely geopolitical escalation. Without the conflict initiated by Donald Trump in the Middle East, such a strong dollar rally would likely not have occurred.

At present, the bearish phase cannot yet be considered fully over. Price may still sweep liquidity from the last two bullish swings, and the Middle East ceasefire could fail. In that case, bearish pressure would resume.

In the near term, traders can expect new bullish patterns to emerge. A bullish imbalance forming this week will provide future opportunities for long positions. If a full and stable ceasefire is achieved (not the fragile one currently in place), the pound could continue rising toward yearly highs.

As for the news backdrop, military activity in the Middle East continues intermittently. On Wednesday, the U.S. struck another refinery in Iran, Iran launched missiles toward Kuwait, and Israel carried out heavy bombing in Lebanon. However, no similar events were reported on Thursday and Friday. The market continues to believe in a longer-term ceasefire, and as a result, demand for the U.S. dollar has weakened.

All of the dollar's gains over the past one and a half to two months were driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately retreated and bulls stepped in aggressively. The truce remains fragile, but the key point is that a bullish signal has been generated and EUR/USD is rising. That, in itself, is enough for the market.

I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the break of key structural lows. The price action over the past two months could still evolve into a bearish trend if geopolitics deteriorates again. However, at this stage, I remain skeptical that bears can sustain prolonged pressure based on a single factor. A renewed bearish push would require a complete failure of ceasefire efforts and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The technical picture has changed noticeably in recent days. First, the price may still react to imbalance 11 and resume its decline—this scenario would become primary if the ceasefire collapses. Second, the reaction to imbalance 12 has already formed a bullish signal within an uptrend. Third, a new bullish imbalance is likely to form this week, which will serve not only as a potential entry zone for long positions but also as a support area for the euro.

Friday's news flow was not just interesting but important. I did not expect a strong market reaction to Germany's inflation report, but I did anticipate increased volatility following the U.S. inflation data—and that did not materialize. U.S. CPI rose to 3.3%, exactly as expected, which explains the muted reaction. Still, it must be acknowledged that inflation has accelerated significantly, and the Federal Reserve will now have to consider how to bring it back down.

There are still plenty of reasons for bulls to stay active, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not diminished them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the dollar may gain on risk aversion, but this support is temporary and depends on continued escalation in the Middle East. Without that, the dollar lacks strong drivers.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will allow bears to continue pushing lower?

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone

• U.S. – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC)

On April 13, the economic calendar contains only one entry, none of which are significant. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. Although the news backdrop shifted sharply two months ago, the broader trend cannot yet be considered reversed or completed. Therefore, bulls may continue their advance in the near term—provided geopolitics allows it.

In the short term, bears may receive a signal at imbalance 11, but unless the geopolitical situation worsens, this signal may not materialize. Bulls, meanwhile, had the opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, targeting around 1.1670. This target has already been reached, and the upward movement may continue toward yearly highs.

However, there is one key condition: the conflict in the Middle East must move toward a stable peace.

The euro is trading around 1.1711, below the 4/8 Murray level, with a positive bias, consolidating around this zone, awaiting a decisive breakout to continue its upward trend.

The euro has tested the strong resistance of the 4/8 Murray level on three occasions and is expected to consolidate above this zone in the coming days. EUR/USD could then continue rising to reach the 4/8 Murray level and the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840.

The odds are high that EUR/USD will continue its upward movement in the coming days, as it is currently above 1.1610, where the 200 EMA is located, and above the 21 SMA, suggesting bullish potential.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels and is showing negative signals. Therefore, we should allow for a technical correction in the coming days towards the 21 SMA or the 200 EMA, before EUR/USD resumes its upward cycle.

A consolidation above 1.1718 could be a positive sign, and we could buy with targets at 1.1813, the gap left on February 27th, and finally at the 5/8 Murray.

XAU/USD is trading around $4,777, below the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA, indicating a difficult-to-reach area as gold is encountering strong resistance around this zone.

If gold consolidates above $4,777 in the coming hours, we could expect it to continue rising and potentially reach the weekly high of $4,856. It could even continue rising next week and reach the psychological level of $5,000.

If the 200 EMA resistance around $4,777 proves strong, we could see this area as an opportunity to open short positions, waiting for gold to return to the lower band of the ascending trend channel located at $4,730.

A decisive break of the ascending trend channel and consolidation below the 7/8 Murray level could signal a trend reversal for gold, and we could expect it to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375 in the coming days.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels. However, the bullish momentum still prevails, so it is expected that after a technical correction, gold will continue to rise in the coming days, and we could look for a good area to open long positions as long as the price consolidates above 7/8 Murray.

Crude oil is trading around $90.99 with a negative signal and undergoing a technical correction after encountering strong resistance around $95.97 and the 21-period SMA. It is expected to continue falling towards the key 7/8 Murray level in the coming days.

Crude oil is approaching oversold levels, so a technical rebound is expected in the coming days around the 200-period EMA at $88.86 or around the bottom of the ascending trend channel at $87.50.

Given that tensions between the United States and Iran continue to be the focus of the markets, crude oil, after a period of consolidation, will likely resume its upward cycle in the coming days and could again reach the psychological level of $100 and even surpass the high of $106.60, reaching the +1/8 Murray level around $112.

If crude oil continues under downward pressure, consolidates below $88.86, where the 200-day EMA is located, and breaks sharply below the ascending trend channel, it could continue falling and reach the 6/8 Murray level around $75 per barrel. This could be the expected target if the price trades below this area.

A consolidation above $93.77, where the 21-day EMA is located, could favor a recovery in crude oil. This could be seen as a buy signal, waiting for it to reach $97.90, $99.65, the psychological level of $100, and finally $106.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so a technical rebound in crude oil is likely in the coming days, which could be seen as an opportunity to enter a long position.

The GBP/USD pair has paused its upward movement ahead of the important U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, but remains stable near its highest levels since late February. Current quotes in the 1.3420–1.3430 level point to the possibility of further growth.

The CPI report is expected to show an increase in inflation in March, driven by a surge in oil prices caused by the war. This could strengthen the Federal Reserve's position to keep interest rates unchanged. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are also supporting the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on GBP/USD.

Iran has suspended shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in response to regional conflicts, increasing risks and supporting oil prices. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of mismanaging oil resources passing through the Strait of Hormuz and violating previously reached agreements. He also warned of renewed strikes if the agreement fails. This indicates that escalation risks remain and continue to support oil prices.

At the same time, traders are lowering expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, pricing in 30–40 basis points by the end of the year—significantly different from the Federal Reserve's earlier signals, which pointed to rate cuts by the end of the year and another reduction in 2027.

Thus, the current situation calls for caution when making trading decisions, given the support for bulls in the GBP/USD pair and the potential risks of further downside.

From a technical perspective, indicators are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index has moved into positive territory, signaling an advantage for bulls. Their immediate target is the 1.3485 level.

The AUD/JPY pair has entered a phase of bullish consolidation and has shown little reaction to mixed inflation data from China. At the moment, the pair is trading near the psychological level of 113.00—its highest level since March 18—with potential for further growth.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-over-year in March. This marked a slowdown from 1.3% in February and came in below the expected 1.2%. On a monthly basis, the index declined by 0.7%, compared to analysts' expectations of a 0.2% drop and a 1% increase in the previous month. These figures did not significantly impact the market and had little effect on the Australian dollar or the AUD/JPY pair overall.

In contrast, the Japanese yen is showing relative weakness, driven by concerns about potential economic disruptions in Japan due to shipping interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has once again blocked traffic through this strategically important waterway in response to intensified Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump warned of possible strikes if Iranian nuclear agreements collapse, highlighting the ongoing risk of further escalation.

These factors are supporting the positive momentum in AUD/JPY, as the United States and Iran continue preparations for ceasefire negotiations. Overall, the situation remains tense, and further volatility in currency markets can be expected in the near term due to geopolitical risks.

From a technical perspective, oscillators remain in positive territory, and the pair is trading above key moving averages, indicating potential for continued growth.

Next, we await the first U.S. inflation data since the start of the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Figures are expected for the March U.S. Consumer Price Index, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index along with inflation expectations. These reports will serve as key indicators of how geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic challenges are affecting price stability in the world's largest economy. Markets are closely monitoring every change, as inflation data directly influences Federal Reserve decisions on monetary policy, particularly interest rates.

Special attention will be paid to the core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy prices. This indicator is often considered a more accurate reflection of underlying inflation trends. Data from the University of Michigan will also be important, as it shows how consumers perceive the current economic situation and their expectations for future prices. Any deviation from forecasts could trigger significant volatility in financial markets.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1719 may lead to growth toward 1.1745 and 1.1769
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1685 may lead to a decline toward 1.1650 and 1.1620

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3450 may lead to growth toward 1.3481 and 1.3512
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3412 may lead to a decline toward 1.3381 and 1.3350

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.32 may lead to growth toward 159.53 and 159.74
• Selling on a breakout below 159.09 may lead to a decline toward 158.87 and 158.57

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1720, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1678, on a return to this level

For GBP/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3445, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3410, on a return to this level

For AUD/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7080, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7056, on a return to this level

For USD/CAD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3848, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3823, on a return to this level

Due to reduced volatility, there were no tests of the levels I had identified during the first half of the day.

Next, we await the first U.S. inflation data following the outbreak of the geopolitical conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Inflation indicators will serve as key benchmarks for the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Particular importance is placed on the core inflation figure, as it more accurately reflects stable inflation trends while minimizing the impact of fuel price fluctuations. March's Consumer Price Index is expected to show the sharpest acceleration in growth since 2022, though it is likely to remain within economists' forecasts. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, along with inflation expectations, will help assess how U.S. citizens perceive the current economic situation and their future spending. If long-term inflation expectations begin to rise—as is likely given fuel prices—this could influence consumer behavior and, consequently, future economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.38 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.69 (thicker green line). Around 159.69, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today can be expected if U.S. data comes in strong.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.20 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 159.38 and 159.69 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.20 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.78, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.38 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.20 and 158.78 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3428 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair has not yet delivered any significant upward movement.

Next, we await the first U.S. inflation data releases. Figures are expected for the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI excluding food and energy, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and inflation expectations. These indicators will serve as key benchmarks for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Given the tense geopolitical environment and its potential impact on energy prices, market participants will closely analyze any deviations from forecasts. Core inflation data will be particularly important, as it more accurately reflects long-term inflation trends by excluding volatile components like food and fuel. The University of Michigan sentiment index, along with inflation expectations, will show how Americans perceive the current economic situation and their outlook for future spending.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3449 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3485 (thicker green line). Around 1.3485, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Today's pound growth can be expected within a bullish market.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3425 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3449 and 1.3485 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3425 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3392, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return today if U.S. data comes in strong.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3449 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3425 and 1.3392 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1696 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 17 points.

The upcoming release of U.S. inflation data—following the outbreak of the military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran—will attract heightened attention. Data on the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected, along with its core version excluding food and energy. In addition, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and data on future inflation expectations will be published. Particular focus will be placed on the core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy—especially important in the current geopolitical environment. The University of Michigan survey results will also be significant, reflecting consumers' perception of current economic conditions and their expectations for future price dynamics.

Only a significant deviation from forecasts is likely to harm the EUR/USD upward trend at the end of the week, as market attention is currently focused on peace negotiations regarding the Middle East situation.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1722 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1759. At 1.1759, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Growth in the euro today is only likely in the case of very weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1697 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1722 and 1.1759 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1697 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1649, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if strong data is released.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1722 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1697 and 1.1649 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.1iiiddds

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

During Friday's European trading session, gold (XAU/USD) is holding above the round level of $4700. The precious metal is moving within an established range, as market participants await the release of fresh U.S. consumer inflation data before taking more decisive short-term positions.

The market expects March's Consumer Price Index (CPI) to continue rising amid a surge in oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Such dynamics could further reduce the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the FOMC meeting minutes from March 17–18, published on Wednesday, Fed officials remain cautious due to the risk of increasing inflationary pressure caused by rising energy costs. Additional support for the U.S. dollar comes from geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn limits gold's upward potential.

Iran has temporarily halted shipping through this strategically important route in response to ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that Tehran is mismanaging the region's oil resources, accusing it of violating previously reached agreements. The U.S. leader also warned of a possible resumption of strikes if current negotiations fail, keeping escalation risks in the region alive. This factor supports oil prices, heightens inflation concerns, and strengthens expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. As a result, gold is losing some of its appeal as a non-yielding asset, although the lack of significant selling pressure forces bears to remain cautious.At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the start of direct talks with Lebanon, aimed at resolving a key disputed issue within the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. A State Department representative confirmed that the meeting will take place in Washington next week. Additionally, phased negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled for Friday evening and Saturday, raising expectations of partial stabilization. These developments are limiting the dollar's gains and helping to cap gold's downside.From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair maintains a neutral-to-bearish bias, remaining within the range between the round levels of $4700 and $4800. Oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory and remain in the negative zone, though the Relative Strength Index is closer to neutral, indicating that the balance of power between bulls and bears is nearly equal. The nearest resistance lies at the $4800 level, while gold has found support at the 20-day SMA near $4700. A break below would expose the next support at $4600, while the next resistance stands at $4860. However, ahead of U.S. data releases, traders are exercising caution in all directions.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. All recent waves have formed within roughly the same price range and are similar in size. Recent news of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new "bullish" wave. The picture now resembles the beginning of a new bullish trend. However, geopolitics is not stable, and the bulls' advance depends entirely on it.

On Thursday, the news background can be divided into two parts: geopolitics and economics. There was little geopolitical news, aside from reports that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. Economic news was also limited, and traders once again showed little interest in this data. Today, the U.S. will release its March inflation report, which is of great importance. Recall that the Federal Reserve has outlined its near-term monetary policy objective: to prevent inflation from getting out of control. In March, U.S. inflation may accelerate to 3.3% year-over-year, which could push the FOMC toward a more "hawkish" stance. At present, the regulator is not considering raising interest rates, but the situation could change if inflation rises faster than expected and for longer than anticipated. This will depend on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East (which cannot yet be considered over) and on final prices for oil and other energy resources.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1706. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1617. However, bulls previously managed to break above the descending trend channel, and the news background has sharply shifted in their favor. Thus, a consolidation above 1.1706 appears more likely, followed by further growth toward 1.1778 and 1.1849. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Over the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 143 long positions and 8,915 short positions. Thus, over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 200,000, while short positions total 199,000. Two months ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.

Overall, in the long term, major players remain interested in the euro. Of course, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market's focus is now on the Middle East, where the war continues to escalate and expand geographically. Therefore, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. So far, the dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Germany Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On April 10, the economic calendar contains three entries, with U.S. inflation standing out as the key event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be strong in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities were available after a rebound from 1.1696 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1577. I had recommended buying positions after a consolidation above 1.1577 with a target of 1.1696, which has been reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above 1.1696 with a target of 1.1770.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1577 to 1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

Retail flows into US equities

The driver of the six-day S&P 500 rally — the longest since last autumn — was the so-called smart money, i.e., institutional investors. They embraced the TACO tactic (Trump Always Chickens Out) and sat on pins and needles after the president's threat to "erase a whole civilization." Professionals anticipated that the maximal threat would be followed by retreat — which is exactly what happened, returning the broad index to its highest levels in a month.

The problem is there are no guarantees the S&P 500 rally will continue. Markets often fire first and sort things out later. The index's jump largely reflects smart money following the TACO script, but key questions remain unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed — fewer than a dozen tankers transit it now versus 135 before the war. Oil remains elevated and will likely stay so. Even an increase in traffic through the world's key artery would add only 2–3 million b/d to markets over a month — a long process.

S&P 500 performance

As a result, stagflation in the United States could become a reality, an extremely unfavorable backdrop for equities. After core personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.4% in February, Bloomberg economists expect headline CPI to accelerate by 0.9% m/m in March, marking the fastest monthly gain since 2022. Add a GDP revision for Q1 from 0.7% to 0.5% and you have slowing growth alongside rising inflation — the very stagflationary scenario that should concern the S&P 500.

Undoubtedly, US President Donald Trump continues to prop up the index with optimistic comments about talks with Iran and calls for Israel to halt strikes on Lebanon, tossing equities a lifeline. For investors, however, the outcome of the dialogue is far more important than the rhetoric.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is in the process of restoring the uptrend. Bulls have approached a key pivot resistance at 6,850 within arm's reach. A successful break above that level would justify adding to previously established long positions in the broad index. Targets remain 6,890 and 6,950.

The wave situation is once again turning "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous peak, while the most recent completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost full dominance in the market for two months, but now the geopolitical background is becoming more favorable, immediately boosting bulls' confidence. The hourly chart also shows that in recent weeks, the pair has been moving sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465.

The news background on Thursday supported the bulls, but neither their strength nor that of the economic reports was enough to break through the key level of 1.3437–1.3465. This zone continues to hold back further upward movement, so GBP/USD remains in a horizontal channel for now. The U.S. GDP report for the fourth quarter only allowed bulls to return to this zone. The economy showed growth of just 0.5%, with each subsequent estimate revised lower. Recall that the initial estimate indicated U.S. economic growth of 1.4%. Today, attention should be paid to the inflation report. Traders expect it to rise to 3.3% in March, but it could come in even higher due to a sharp increase in energy prices. Even 3.3% is quite high and could support the U.S. dollar, as market expectations may turn more "hawkish" regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. If the actual figure is even higher, further dollar growth is likely. However, geopolitics should not be overlooked, as it currently plays a decisive role in shaping trader sentiment.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above a descending trend channel, which has not yet given bulls any real advantage. The pound rose to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3439, but this level has already triggered two reversals before. Although geopolitics is improving, bulls now need to break through 1.3439 to count on a trend. A consolidation above this level would increase the probability of continued growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3664. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,845, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 51,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced longs, leading to a strong imbalance. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the sole driver of U.S. dollar strength.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for April 10 contains two entries, with inflation being the key one. The news flow may influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities were possible after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3465 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3341–1.3352. These positions can still be held today. Buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from the 1.3341–1.3352 level with a target of 1.3437–1.3465, or after a breakout and close above 1.3437–1.3465 with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Asian equity indices also strengthened, posting their first weekly gain since the start of the war in the Middle East, as investors view the market with cautious optimism ahead of US–Iran talks scheduled for this weekend. Oil is set to record its largest weekly decline in nine months.

Against the backdrop of easing regional tensions, Asian markets showed resilience, bouncing up in line with positive sentiment on Wall Street. Investors closely tracking geopolitical developments see the upcoming US–Iran negotiations as a potential de-escalation catalyst. Any constructive signals could spur further gains in risk assets, including equities.

The cautious lift in Asian indices suggests investors are probing for opportunities amid ongoing uncertainty. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 0.8% after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about a deal with Iran, despite threats to Tehran over transit fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Technology stocks, seen as less exposed to the conflict with Iran, outperformed.

Traders are monitoring the fragile truce and the Saturday talks in Islamabad between the US and Iran for clues on the market's next move. Although Israel's agreement to enter talks with Lebanon improved sentiment, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the key transit artery for oil flows — keeps investors on edge, and recent weeks have seen sharp swings at the start of Monday trading.

It was reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to enter talks with Lebanon, while Trump said the Israeli leader would act with restraint toward the war-torn country, offering some hope for de-escalation.

The US and Iran have largely paused strikes after fighting continued in the region on Wednesday despite the ceasefire announcement on Tuesday evening. On Thursday evening, Kuwait's Foreign Ministry reported that new drone attacks carried out by Iran and its proxies targeting several important facilities in the country.

Elsewhere, gold eased slightly, trading around $4,760 per ounce. Treasuries ended a four-day rally as investors awaited US inflation data due today. Economists surveyed expect the consumer price index to rise 0.9% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since 2022.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the main task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,819. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a surge to $6,837. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,854, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,801. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,784 and could open the way to $6,769.

Reports indicate that Iran is charging or plans to charge fees for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is fueling demand in the cryptocurrency market. Iran intends to accept payments only in cryptocurrency. A $1 fee per barrel of oil amounts to approximately $20 million a day, which is about 281 BTC at current prices—about 62% of all newly mined BTC daily. Miners generate around 450 BTC every 24 hours.

Such a significant volume of potential Bitcoin purchases could substantially impact its market price. This precedent, if realized, would be the first for a country to directly use cryptocurrency for international payments on such a scale, which could stimulate interest from other countries facing limitations from traditional banking systems.

In light of these developments, mining companies may face both opportunities and challenges. Increased demand from Iran could lead to higher profits for miners; however, it could also potentially increase network difficulty, subsequently raising costs for electricity and equipment. Market activity has already noticeably intensified, and traders are likely to continue closely assessing the potential impact of these news items on Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Regarding the intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the long-term bullish market.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $72,100 with a target for growth to $73,000. At $73,000, I plan to exit the buys and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $71,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $72,100 and $73,000.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $71,500 with a target for the drop to $70,600. At $70,600, I plan to exit the sales and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $72,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $71,500 and $70,600.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,193 with a target for growth to $2,211. At $2,211, I plan to exit the buys and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,179 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,193 and $2,211.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,179 with a target for the drop to $2,156. At $2,156, I plan to exit the sales and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $2,193 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,179 and $2,156.

Today, the price of gold stabilized at around $4,765 per ounce, up nearly 2% for the week. With key unresolved issues related to the Middle Eastern conflict, attention is shifting to negotiations in Islamabad this weekend, where a U.S. delegation led by Vice President Jay Dee Vance is scheduled to meet with Iranian officials. Traders will also be watching for the U.S. inflation report, which will be released later on Friday.

Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is optimistic about reaching an agreement to end the six-week conflict, but later threatened Tehran over its plans to charge fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the start of the war in late February this year, the precious metal has lost nearly 10%, and its appeal as a safe haven has diminished as some investors seek to cover losses in other areas. The energy supply shock caused by the conflict has also heightened inflation risks, prompting traders to bet that central banks will postpone rate cuts or even raise them. This creates obstacles for non-yielding gold, which benefits when borrowing costs are lower.

However, the reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty, spurred by the prospect of resolving the conflict in the Middle East, along with structural concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policy and U.S. national debt, continues to encourage investors to increase their gold holdings as a key diversification tool.

Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,771. This will allow them to target $4,835, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be the $4,893 area. If gold prices fall, bears will attempt to take control at $4,708. If they succeed, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,647 with the potential to reach $4,591.

The price test at 158.88 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips.

Unfavorable U.S. labor market data and positive expectations for a peace agreement in the U.S.-Iran negotiations exerted significant pressure on the dollar. It is assumed that weak economic data may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate hikes, which has somewhat weakened the bullish momentum in the USD/JPY pair. However, today the dollar strengthened against the yen following news of a decline in the index of purchasing prices for goods used by Japanese corporations. Preliminary data released by the Bank of Japan showed that the index, which reflects the cost of goods imported by companies, rose only 0.8% from the previous month. This slowdown in growth, while seemingly minor, carries important implications for the financial market, directly affecting the exchange rate dynamics of the national currency.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 159.38 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.69 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.69, I intend to exit the long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.18 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to resistance levels of 159.38 and 159.69 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 159.18 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.78 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.38 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to support levels of 159.18 and 158.78 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3417 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.3448.

Weak data from the U.S. labor market and GDP put significant pressure on the dollar, leading to a strengthening of the British pound. The release of reports showing an increase in jobless claims and weak GDP growth raised concerns among traders about the sustainability of the American economy. This negative information prompted a decline in the dollar against the British pound. It is expected that such disappointing economic indicators may prompt the Federal Reserve to approach raising interest rates more cautiously. The reduced likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening traditionally weakens the national currency, making it less attractive to investors.

Unfortunately, a lull is expected on the British economic front today, as no significant macroeconomic data for the UK is scheduled. The absence of new fundamental indicators suggests the pair will likely trade in a sideways channel, with limited movement. This consolidation period may be seen as a pause before possible future movements driven by external factors or upcoming releases.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3428 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to 1.3461 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3461, I plan to exit the market and immediately sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the pound can be expected today within the channel. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3408 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.3428 and 1.3461 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3408 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3374 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip reversal from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3428 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.3408 and 1.3374 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1689 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose to around 1.1717.

Incoming information on progress in negotiations to resolve conflicts between the United States and Iran, as well as between Israel and Lebanon, positively impacted the euro. Investors closely monitoring the situation now see an opportunity to reduce uncertainty, enabling them to confidently allocate funds to assets previously considered overly risky. The euro, being one of the major global currencies, directly benefits from this redistribution of investments.

Today, market participants will watch for macroeconomic data releases from the Eurozone. Particularly important are the inflation figures from Germany, presented by the consumer price index. High inflation numbers could prompt the European Central Bank to adopt a stricter monetary policy. Concurrently, global financial markets are awaiting data on Italy's industrial production. An increase in production could be seen as a bullish signal for the euro, while a decline could heighten recession concerns and negatively impact the currency's value.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today at a price around 1.1696 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1721. At 1.1721, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong growth in the euro can only be expected with very strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1676 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1696 and 1.1721 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1676 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1649, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S.-Iran relations worsen. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1696 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.1676 and 1.1649 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Good news regarding preparations for negotiations aimed at ending the war between the U.S., Iran, Israel, and Lebanon has undoubtedly supported risk assets. This news has been a breath of fresh air amid prolonged geopolitical tensions that have pressured the global economy and energy markets for a long time. Expectations for conflict resolution have generated a wave of optimism, which in turn has reflected on financial markets. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are expected on April 11, while discussions between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for April 14. The reduction in geopolitical risks further diminishes demand for safe havens such as the U.S. dollar, thereby stimulating capital inflows into higher-yielding but more volatile assets, including the euro and the British pound.

Today, traders' attention will be focused on the release of macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone. In particular, data on the consumer price index (CPI) in Germany is expected, which is one of the main indicators of inflation trends in Europe's largest economy. High inflation levels could put pressure on the European Central Bank, pushing it towards a tighter monetary policy, which, in turn, could affect the value of the euro.

Simultaneously, the market is awaiting data on changes in Italy's industrial production. This indicator reflects the state of the country's manufacturing sector, which plays a significant role in the Eurozone economy.

There are no reports scheduled for the United Kingdom, so it is likely that the GBP/USD pair will trade in a narrow sideways channel during the first half of the day.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 1.1705, which may lead to a rise of the euro toward 1.1730 and 1.1765;

Sell on a breakout of the level 1.1680, which may lead to a decline of the euro toward 1.1650 and 1.1620;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 1.3430, which may lead to a rise of the pound toward 1.3454 and 1.3481;

Sell on a breakout of the level 1.3403, which may lead to a decline of the pound toward 1.3377 and 1.3343;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 159.30, which may lead to a rise of the dollar toward 159.55 and 159.75;

Sell on a breakout of the level 159.10, which may lead to a sell-off of the dollar toward 158.85 and 158.55;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.1700 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.1680 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.3434 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.3412 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 0.7085 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 0.7061 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.3832 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.3816 on a return to this level;

Now, let's look at the 4-hour time frame. What has changed? Nothing. We continue to observe a flat market. The price rose after deviating from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary, forming three more deviations and simultaneously removing liquidity from the recent local highs. Thus, Bitcoin may soon return to the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Bitcoin has been trading within a flat range for two full months. During this time, Donald Trump managed to prepare the world for war in Iran, bombed Iran for five weeks with Israel, and then established a ceasefire that has already been violated. Throughout this time, Bitcoin continued to trade in the sideways channel. Therefore, we do not believe that the cryptocurrency market is reacting to geopolitical events. Of course, we observe local market reactions from time to time, but globally, nothing changes for Bitcoin.

Thus, we continue to uphold our viewpoint. On the daily time frame, a weak upward correction is still underway and could end at any time, as it has already lasted for two months. The downward trend is not over, and there are no signs of an upward trend beginning. Liquidity below the trend line has not been removed, and the $57,500 target remains unachieved.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily time frame, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as descending, and the CHOCH line remains at $97,900. Only above this level can it be considered that the downward trend has ended. The last sell signal was formed within a "bearish" FVG ($96,900 – $98,000), providing traders with the perfect opportunity to capture almost all of the recent downward movement. Now, we can only wait. Given no signs of a trend reversal to the upside, we believe the decline will resume. On the daily time frame, the nearest POI area for new sell trades is between $79,500 and $81,100. During the current decline, two bearish FVGs have formed, with preliminary liquidity removal for sales; however, the flat on the 4-hour time frame currently plays a higher priority role.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour time frame, the price has dropped to the lower boundary of the sideways channel, forming a deviation/rebound from it, and has risen to the upper boundary of the channel. The flat persists, so all internal patterns are of no significance. We currently trust the daily chart more, but it is this flat on the 4-hour time frame that determines the direction and strength of movement. When the flat concludes, we can shift our attention to the daily time frame. On the 4-hour time frame, Bitcoin has formed a deviation from the upper boundary, so it is reasonable to expect a decline back toward the lower boundary of the channel soon.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and a correction against it. We still expect a decline, targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even the $57,500 level does not seem to be a final stop at this point. Among the POI areas, we can highlight only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily time frame, in the range of $79,300–$81,200. On the 4-hour time frame, the nature of Bitcoin's movement shows all the signs of a flat, so monitoring only deviations from the boundaries of the sideways channel remains the focus. A new deviation has just formed.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Break of trend structure.
• Liquidity – The liquidity and Stop Loss of traders that market makers use to accumulate their positions.
• FVG – Area of price inefficiency. The price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react from such areas.
• IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not receive a reaction from it; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position, intending to take liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The only notable reports include inflation data from Germany and the U.S. The German inflation report will be a second estimate, so it's unlikely to attract traders' interest. In contrast, the American inflation report should pique market interest, although several important reports have been published over the past two months, all of which have been ignored. Therefore, traders should be prepared for volatility during the American trading session, but it's also not surprising if the market overlooks this publication. Geopolitical factors remain the priority, and if new significant news emerges on this front, the market will respond to it first. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index can also be noted, but under the current circumstances, one should not expect a market reaction to it either.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy in the fundamental events on Friday, yet the market continues to ignore practically all news unrelated to geopolitics. On Wednesday night, news of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran emerged, and by the day, the U.S., Iran, and Israel launched new missiles. Thus, it is currently unclear whether the ceasefire has ended or continues. Since the market cannot answer this question, the dollar's decline has halted.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in any direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the ranges of 1.3403-1.3407 or 1.3437-1.3446. We still see no grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), and the improving geopolitical situation has already triggered a collapse in the dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.