EUR/USD remains within the local bearish impulse that began on April 17, although with each passing day the bulls are moving closer to establishing a trend of their own. To achieve that, they need only invalidate Bearish Imbalance 17.

Let me reiterate a few important points. Imbalances tend to work best within the same impulse. If an imbalance forms during a bearish trend but is tested after the market has already shifted into a bullish trend, the resulting reaction may be weak or insignificant. The reaction to Imbalance 17 was indeed very limited, while GBP/USD, at the same time, responded to a bullish imbalance and may continue its advance, which currently looks much more convincing than the euro's price action. It is also worth remembering the two recent buy-side liquidity sweeps.

The fundamental backdrop is not currently in the bears' favor either. Last week, traders expected Kevin Warsh to deliver either a clear indication of a September rate hike or, at the very least, sufficiently hawkish rhetoric that would answer the question: Is the Federal Reserve preparing to tighten monetary policy this autumn? Instead, Warsh referred to incoming economic data, and, as we all know, the latest U.S. labor market figures have been relatively weak. Consequently, by September Warsh may conclude that the labor market remains too fragile for the Federal Reserve to focus solely on inflation.

Recent macroeconomic data have also supported the euro. U.S. GDP figures came in weaker than expected, while eurozone GDP data exceeded expectations. More broadly, the U.S. dollar currently appears to have exhausted most of its bullish drivers.

It is worth remembering that expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening are still only expectations, and they can change rapidly in response to geopolitical developments or incoming economic data. The latest U.S. labor market report was weak, while the inflation report showed a slowdown in price growth. Together, these developments cast doubt on the likelihood of an FOMC rate hike in the foreseeable future. If Donald Trump's statements prove accurate and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, that would provide yet another reason for investors to sell the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, since demand for defensive currencies would diminish if the conflict is at least partially resolved.

Although geopolitical developments have become a secondary consideration for traders, they continue to affect the economic outlook. Tehran and Washington are still communicating through intermediaries—if the current process can even be described as negotiations. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices are likely to decline, easing inflationary pressures. In that scenario, the probability of further FOMC monetary tightening would decrease even more, while any additional tightening by the European Central Bank is unlikely to attract market attention, as investors effectively priced it out two months ago.

The current technical picture still points to the continuation of the bearish impulse that began on April 17. Bearish Imbalance 17 has already been tested, but the market reaction was weak. Therefore, this pattern could be invalidated as early as today or tomorrow. Last week also saw the formation of Bullish Imbalance 19, giving buyers reason for optimism. If Imbalance 17 is invalidated while Imbalance 19 remains untested, traders will need to wait for new bullish patterns before considering fresh long positions.

Wednesday's economic releases once again had only a limited impact on overall market sentiment, although they continued to support the bulls. The U.S. ADP Employment Change report came in significantly weaker than expected, showing only 44,000 new jobs in July versus forecasts of 70,000–90,000. Even so, the market is not rushing to draw firm conclusions about the condition of the U.S. labor market, while the ISM business activity indices are currently insufficient on their own to offset the broader negative sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and even the conflict in the Middle East has done little to reduce them. From both a structural and long-term perspective, the policies introduced by Donald Trump—which contributed to the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar last year—have not fundamentally changed. At present, I see few meaningful factors supporting the U.S. dollar despite the FOMC's relatively hawkish stance. Nevertheless, sellers remain in control of the market for now, while no fresh bullish signals have yet emerged.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

Eurozone

• Retail Sales (09:00 UTC)

United States

• Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

On August 6, the economic calendar contains only two releases, both of which I consider to be of limited importance. Therefore, the impact of Thursday's economic data on market sentiment is likely to be minimal or absent altogether.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Outlook

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a new bullish trend. Although the fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears five months ago, the broader bullish trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. Consequently, the bulls may continue their advance following the two recent buy-side liquidity sweeps below clearly defined swing lows.

A sell signal may have formed within Imbalance 17, but the market's reaction was too weak, making it likely that this pattern will soon be invalidated. Imbalance 19 still has the potential to generate a bullish signal, although the price is moving increasingly farther away from this pattern. Despite the euro's recent strong rally, there are currently no attractive technical locations for initiating new long positions. Traders should wait for fresh bullish patterns to develop before considering additional buying opportunities.

GBP/USD posted strong gains last week, fully in line with the prevailing fundamental backdrop. It can therefore be said that the bulls launched a new advance at the end of June, followed by a typical corrective pullback, and are now attempting to resume the upward move.

Bearish Imbalance 24 was broken without triggering any meaningful price reaction. As a result, it can now be regarded as an inverted imbalance. Price reacted to this pattern from above as early as Friday, indicating that it has already been validated and has generated a bullish signal.

As for the fundamental backdrop, I continue to believe that it remains supportive of the British pound. As I have noted previously, geopolitical developments are no longer providing sustained support for the U.S. dollar, as each new escalation of the conflict occurs roughly every two weeks and differs little from the previous one. Reports regarding negotiations between Tehran and Washington remain contradictory. According to some sources, talks are continuing; according to others, they have been paused or have collapsed entirely. Officially, Tehran denies holding direct negotiations with the United States but continues discussions through intermediaries, particularly Oman. It remains unclear whether these negotiations will ultimately lead to an end to the conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible that Iran and Oman could reach an agreement regarding oversight of the waterway, but it is uncertain how that would resolve the broader dispute between Iran and the United States.

Last week, oil prices climbed to $100 per barrel, while this week they have fallen back to around $81. If events unfold according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices are likely to resume their rally and surpass the highs recorded between March and May. In that case, inflationary pressures in both the United States and the United Kingdom would likely accelerate again. Conversely, under a more optimistic scenario, oil prices could return to the $60–70 per barrel range. In that case, the Federal Reserve might not need to tighten monetary policy further, while the Bank of England is already no longer constrained by excessively high inflation. At present, however, it is the Federal Reserve that remains reluctant to adopt a more hawkish stance—even though, in the author's view, such a move is warranted—whereas the Bank of England expects inflation to accelerate and appears fully prepared to tighten monetary policy further.

From a technical perspective, the charts point to a renewed bullish advance. Traders currently have two bullish imbalances (24 and 25), both of which may be considered potential buying zones. Imbalance 24 generated a buy signal on Friday, which traders could have used to initiate long positions. On Monday, the price returned to this pattern once again and rebounded from it, reinforcing the bullish signal. There are currently no bearish patterns on the chart. Therefore, if sellers attempt to regain control, there are no technical setups that would justify opening short positions.

Wednesday's economic data once again favored the bulls. The U.S. ADP Employment Change report came in at roughly half the consensus forecast, while the ISM Services PMI failed to change market sentiment sufficiently to discourage buyers. Naturally, traders will now turn their attention to Friday's U.S. unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports, which are expected to provide greater clarity. Even so, the information currently available is sufficient to keep pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains such that I see little reason to expect anything other than a long-term decline in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States has not materially altered this outlook. Nor has the possibility of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's traditional safe-haven status, but the most active phase of the conflict has already passed. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in 2026, which is fundamentally supportive of the dollar. However, tighter monetary policy would also slow economic growth and weaken the labor market. At the same time, Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump to lead the FOMC with the objective of pursuing a more accommodative monetary policy—something Jerome Powell was reportedly unwilling to deliver. Therefore, in my opinion, any appreciation of the U.S. dollar should be viewed as temporary rather than the beginning of a sustained trend.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

United States

• ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC)

On August 6, the economic calendar contains only two events, neither of which I consider particularly significant. Therefore, the impact of Thursday's macroeconomic releases on market sentiment is likely to be limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Outlook

The long-term outlook for GBP/USD remains bullish. After liquidity was swept below the two most recent swing lows, the bulls resumed their advance. That move was followed by a corrective pullback, and buyers are now attempting another upward push.

I expect the pound to continue strengthening this week, although much will depend on the incoming macroeconomic data. Market participants are awaiting the U.S. unemployment and labor market reports, which are likely to play a key role in shaping expectations for the FOMC's September meeting. If the bears regain the initiative, bearish chart patterns will be needed to justify short positions, but no such patterns are currently present. Meanwhile, the bulls have already received a fresh buy signal.

The next upward targets for GBP/USD are the highs of July 15 and May 1, located at 1.3557 and 1.3656, respectively.

Official Washington, however, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, calls Iran's demands unacceptable and stresses that the strait must remain fully open as an international waterway without approvals or fees. Iranian officials insist the strait will remain closed until the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports and returns to the 14?point Islamabad memorandum.

Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a key lever of pressure

Control of the Strait of Hormuz has proven a more effective weapon for Tehran than a nuclear arsenal, giving it the ability to directly affect the global economy. Attempts by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq to reroute oil flows via new pipelines will only partially reduce the risks by 2030:

• LNG, oil products and container exports will remain critically dependent on the strait
• new overland infrastructure inevitably becomes a target for attacks

Moreover, it is not only energy that transits Hormuz but also vital imports of food and medicine. Building full alternative logistics corridors will take decades and tens of billions of dollars, so Iran's strategic leverage will persist for years.

OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic head to the White House

Meanwhile, the White House appears to be trying to rein in AI. The Trump administration invited leading AI developers to the White House to discuss a new voluntary system of governmental oversight. Under the proposal, tech companies could voluntarily provide their advanced AI models to US officials for pre-release review before broad deployment or transfer to partners. It remains unclear whether this initiative will form the basis for real regulation or remain an introductory dialogue between the White House and Big Tech.

Goldman Sachs analysts point out that the US economy has entered a global investment cycle driven by:

• massive capital shortages
• unprecedented demand

Huge capital expenditures on AI infrastructure (where AWS alone expects to grow to $1 trillion in annual revenue), reindustrialisation, defence, power-grid upgrades, and servicing public debt are pushing the cost of money higher worldwide, leaving the Fed more a passenger than a driver.

Why is Trump defending the yen?

For the first time in nearly 30 years, the US Treasury joined Japan in a joint intervention to buy yen, sending USD/JPY down from 164 to 158. Beyond supporting an ally, the move has a pragmatic rationale: it should prevent Tokyo from being forced to dump US Treasuries to defend the yen. Otherwise, US yields would rise even further. Experts call this a return to an era of Washington's "currency activism." They warn, however, that if speculators resume attacks on the yen, the entire US debt market would come under direct pressure.

5 August

02:00 / Australia / Ai Group composite industry index for July / prev.: -30.5 / actual: -30.0 / forecast: -27.0 / AUD/USD – up

The composite business-activity index in Australia for June rose by 0.5 points (to -30.0). Fuel-price corrections slightly eased energy cost pressure on businesses. However, the new-orders subindex fell to -41.0, indicating:

• extreme demand weakness
• decision-making delays

High input costs, skilled-labour shortages, and regulatory barriers pushed capacity utilisation down to 72.8%, creating a record gap between costs and output prices. If the July release shows continued recovery, investors will get a signal that the business slump is easing, which would support the Australian dollar.

02:00 / Australia / Ai Group manufacturing industry index for June / prev.: -21.3 / actual: -16.8 / forecast: -14.0 / AUD/USD – up

Ai Group's June manufacturing index rose to -16.8, showing a slowdown in negative dynamics. Conditions across firms remain uneven:

• the chemical sector suffered from falling sales and high transport costs
• metal and food producers saw demand improvement thanks to mining and construction orders

A continued rise in the index would confirm gradual industrial recovery and bolster the AUD.

02:00 / Australia / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 48.7 / actual: 50.0 / forecast: 53.0 / AUD/USD – up

The preliminary S&P Global Australia services PMI for July is expected at 53.0 — the strongest acceleration since the start of the year. Drivers include:

• inflows of new clients boosting business volumes and staffing
• higher oil prices pushing up input costs

Sustained demand has allowed service firms to pass costs into output prices and keep a positive outlook. A positive surprise would confirm sector resilience and support the Australian dollar.

02:30 / Japan / Average earnings for June / prev.: 3.6% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.4% / USD/JPY – down Average earnings in Japan for May rose 3.2%, marking the 53rd consecutive month of nominal wage gains. Pay increases were broad-based, led by:

• finance
• mining
• construction

Adjusted for inflation, real incomes rose 1.4% — the longest run of positive growth in four years. If June shows an acceleration, the Bank of Japan would gain a stronger case for normalising monetary conditions, which would be a powerful factor supporting the yen.

03:30 / Japan / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 50.0 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.9 / USD/JPY – up

The preliminary S&P Global Japan services PMI for July is expected at 51.9, which would keep the sector in expansion for the 16th month. Headwinds include:

• slowing export demand
• geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East

At the same time, efforts to offset expensive energy and supply-chain costs have pushed output-price inflation to its fastest pace in 12 years. A downside surprise would pressure the yen.

04:45 / China / Markit services PMI for July / prev.: 54.4 / actual: 54.1 / forecast: 53.7 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

China's services PMI (Markit) for June remained high at 54.1, beating expectations. Domestic demand is the main pillar of the sector, while export orders and hiring showed the best dynamics in a long time. Input-cost inflation eased somewhat, though firms continued to pass costs into output prices. A July decline would weigh on oil and the yuan.

11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 47.7 / actual: 49.4 / forecast: 51.6 / EUR/USD – up

The eurozone services PMI for July is expected around 51.6, which would mark a return to growth after three months of decline. Non-manufacturing firms have been the main engine of private-sector hiring in the region. With input costs contained, companies slowed output-price increases and business expectations improved. An expansion here would strengthen the euro.

11:00 / United Kingdom / New car sales in July / prev.: 7.1% / actual: 11.4% / forecast: 10.0% / GBP/USD – down

UK new-car registrations rose 11.4% in July to 213.2k — the best July since 2019. Corporate buyers accounted for about 60% of the total, with double-digit growth among private buyers and small businesses. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) jumped to a 30% market share amid higher fuel costs and model refreshes. Confirmation of robust July growth would support the pound.

11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 49.3 / actual: 48.8 / forecast: 51.8 / GBP/USD – up

The preliminary UK services PMI for July is expected at 51.8. Drivers of the sector's return to expansion include:

• the World Cup boosting hospitality demand
• a pickup in leisure activity

Despite heat, geopolitics and some job losses, the service sector reports falling operating costs and the highest one-year-ahead optimism in a while. A confirmed uptrend would strengthen the pound.

12:00 / Eurozone / Producer price index (PPI) for June / prev.: 5.0% / actual: 5.9% / forecast: 4.6% / EUR/USD – down

Eurozone producer prices accelerated to 5.9% in May — the highest since spring 2023 and well above historical norms. The June report is forecast to show a slowdown in wholesale prices. That could be dovish for the ECB and weigh on EUR.

13:00 / Germany / New car sales in July / prev.: 0.1% / actual: 15.7% / forecast: 5.1% / EUR/USD – down

German new-car sales rose 15.7% in July, driven by a 78.2% surge in EV registrations, which accounted for almost 28% of the market. Demand for diesel and petrol cars continued to fall, though total registrations rose 5.8% year-to-date. A sharp drop in the July release would be negative for the euro.

15:15 / US / ADP employment change for July / prev.: 122k / actual: 98k / forecast: 70k / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The US private sector added 98k jobs in June, a modest pace amid:

• labour shortages
• slowing hiring

Gains were concentrated in healthcare, education and transport, while hospitality and mining weakened. Wage growth for job changers rose to 6.6%. A further decline in July would likely push the dollar lower.

16:45 / US / S&P Global services PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 50.7 / actual: 51.2 / forecast: 53.6 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

The preliminary US services PMI for July may rise to 53.6, a year-to-date high supported by:

• spending related to the World Cup
• marketing investments

The Middle East energy shock lifted input-cost inflation to a 14-month peak but did not prevent optimism from hitting a yearly high. Confirmation would support the US dollar.

17:00 / US / ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July / prev.: 54.5 / actual: 54.0 / forecast: 54.5 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

The ISM non-manufacturing index was 54.0 in June, remaining in expansion. A slowdown in order inflows was offset by a record-quick rebound in the employment subindex to 51.2 and a fall in price pressure to four-month lows. A return to 54.5 in July would underscore stable expansion and support the dollar.

17:00 / US / ISM non-manufacturing employment subindex for July / prev.: 47.9 / actual: 51.2 / forecast: 52.0 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

The ISM services employment subindex rose to 51.2 in June from 47.9 in May, returning to expansion for the first time in months. Further improvement in July would be dollar-positive.

17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: 2.011m bbl / actual: -7.167m bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile

The EIA reported a sharp draw of 7.167m barrels in US commercial crude stocks for the week — well above expectations. The draw coincided with refinery utilisation at 97.2% and a decline in Cushing inventories. Continued inventory declines will push oil prices higher.

02:50 / Japan / Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes / USD/JPY 05:05 / US / Speech by Laila Cook (Board of Governors, Federal Reserve) / USDX

Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled in the coming days; their comments typically drive FX volatility as they may indicate future policy intentions.

Global markets are exhibiting strong positive momentum, pushing the S&P 500 to new record levels. The main catalyst for optimism was emerging coverage about a potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the market caps of the largest technology megacaps increased by record amounts, providing the bulk of the broad market's gains.

Investors prefer to maintain a buying bias and to downplay Tehran's tough statements denying any direct talks with Washington. The market is clearly pricing in a soft resolution to the conflict, but the high sensitivity of prices to geopolitical headlines keeps the risk of abrupt reversals intact. Follow the link for more details.

Strong manufacturing data and Palantir surge push S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher

The uptrend on Wall Street received additional support from fresh macro data showing a solid rise in US manufacturing activity. Combined with lower oil prices, this eased investor concerns about inflationary pressure and created a favorable backdrop for a continued rally in major equity indices.

The main driver in the tech sector was Palantir Technologies, whose stock jumped by 14% on the back of strong operational results. The combination of positive corporate reports and robust macro data forms a sound basis for further gains in US equities, which are easier to trade with InstaForex. Follow the link for more details.

Asian stock indices fell despite optimistic US rally

The trading session in the Asia-Pacific region ended mixed-to-negative, with negative sentiment predominating. Key regional benchmarks, including South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225, finished lower, completely ignoring the firm gains in Wall Street's major indices from the previous session.

Investor caution is driven by growing uncertainty over the returns on investment in artificial intelligence and by risks of a shift in global semiconductor demand. A reassessment of expectations for leading chipmakers is forcing local players to cut exposure to technology names until order trends become clearer. Follow the link for more details.

WTI crude pause amid uncertainty over US–Iran diplomatic progress

WTI crude has entered a consolidation phase, influenced by conflicting geopolitical drivers and technical corrections. Traders are taking a wait-and-see approach as they assess the odds of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran — an outcome that could materially rewrite the supply balance in the global commodity market.

For now, prices are pinched between key support and resistance levels. A break out of this range will likely determine the next directional move. Follow the link for more details.

Iran-Oman consultations on Strait of Hormuz shipping security coincide with US talks on AI regulation

Iran and Oman have launched active talks aimed at restoring safe commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A potential normalization of tanker traffic in this strategic artery is crucial for global economic stability, as it would reduce the risk of disruptions to hydrocarbon supplies.

At the same time, as diplomatic processes unfold in the Middle East, the US has stepped up discussions on an AI regulatory framework. Authorities are consulting with leaders of major tech firms to strike a balance between risk control and preserving the pace of innovation. Follow the link for more details.

Energy-import-dependent Europe would breathe easier if Brent returns to pre-crisis levels. Its economy would continue to recover, narrowing the GDP growth gap with the US and laying a firmer foundation for a EUR/USD rally.

European economic dynamics

At first glance, a weakening US dollar looks illogical. The United States stands on a solid footing: massive AI investments and energy exports provide support, Treasury yields are high, and stock indices are testing record highs — all factors that should attract capital to the US and strengthen the greenback. Moreover, the futures market still prices in possible Fed tightening and does not rule out two rate hikes in 2026.

But on FX, it's not the current snapshot that matters so much as the dynamic. The growth and rate differentials between the US and the euro area are narrowing. The odds of Fed tightening are falling. That alone is enough for EUR/USD to grind higher. ANZ expects the dollar to continue weakening through year-end as macro data deteriorate and the probability of policy tightening drops — although the process will not be rushed.

S&P 500, EuroStoxx 600 and EPS dynamics

European assets are ready to compete with US ones in 2026. The EuroStoxx 600 is less exposed to AI-linked technology stocks that US investors are offloading. Coupled with 16% earnings growth in Q2, falling oil prices, positive euro?area economic signals and a lower chance of ECB hikes, European issuers look well supported. Capital flows into the region from the US and Asia create a tailwind for EUR/USD.

Thus, despite strong US economic data, the appeal of American assets and market belief in Fed hikes, a shrinking GDP differential, and capital flows into Europe are encouraging dollar selling.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is attempting to restore an uptrend. We continue to favour a buy strategy. A break above resistance at 1.1555 would be a signal to add to existing long positions.

The central parallel of the essay is not with the 2000 dot-com crash but with the 2008 mortgage crisis. Hayes contends the problem will not arise from falling profits at AI companies but from the huge volume of loans extended to build data centers and related infrastructure. Even if demand for compute continues to grow, chips will become more powerful and efficient, meaning existing data centers can perform more computations per square metre and reduce the need for new construction. It is the slowdown in new investment—rather than a drop in AI companies' revenues—that Hayes predicts will be the first warning sign the market notices in 2027, with the full problem manifesting by 2028.

Hayes argues that this hypothetical new wave of liquidity, released after the AI cycle reverses and the sector is ultimately bailed out by governments, will become the main driver of the next long?term Bitcoin rally — potentially pushing the asset to $1 million and beyond. The logic of the essay echoes earlier explanations for the crypto market's current weakness offered by Michael Saylor, who called the capital shift into AI infrastructure an "AI summer," and is consistent with reports of crypto-venture funds such as Paradigm pivoting to AI and robotics, and of mining companies whose stock gains are driven by contracts with data-center operators rather than by Bitcoin mining itself. The difference is that Hayes goes a step beyond noting the capital flow: he turns the temporary liquidity outflow from crypto into the premise for a future over-leverage crisis across the AI industry, from which, in his scenario, Bitcoin will emerge as a chief beneficiary once states are forced to print money again to rescue the system.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $64,800, which opens a direct path to $66,000 and then to $66,800 — a break above which would signal attempts to re-enter a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $62,300. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $60,600. The next target would be the $58,500 area.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,880 would open a direct path to $1,920. The further target is the high near $1,961 — a breach of which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,841. A return below that level could quickly send ETH toward $1,782, with a further target at $1,745.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The test of the 157.87 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's further upward potential.

During the second half of the day, market participants will focus on a key batch of U.S. economic data, including the ISM Services PMI, the Composite PMI, the ADP Employment Change report, and remarks by FOMC member Lisa Cook. The ADP report provides an early indication of labor market conditions, while the PMI data reflect the pace of business activity. Both indicators influence expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy and U.S. Treasury yields. Lisa Cook's comments could further shape market sentiment. The Japanese yen may react to these releases, but only if the actual data deviate significantly from economists' forecasts. Stronger-than-expected reports could push USD/JPY above its weekly highs, allowing the pair to establish a new short-term uptrend—at least until the next potential currency intervention by the Japanese authorities. Conversely, weaker data would likely weigh on the U.S. dollar and renew demand for the yen.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches the entry level around 157.87 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 158.22 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.22, I intend to close my long positions and open short positions, anticipating a 30–35 point pullback from that level. Any further gains in the pair today are likely to be relatively limited. Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the 157.67 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a move toward 157.87 and 158.22 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below the 157.67 level (the red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The primary downward target for sellers will be 157.29, where I intend to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the Bank of Japan intervenes in the foreign exchange market. Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the 157.87 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 157.67 and 157.29 can be expected.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line – the suggested entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line – the suggested Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, as further upside beyond this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the suggested entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line – the suggested Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay close attention to overbought and oversold conditions indicated by the MACD.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major economic releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire trading capital very quickly, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.

Finally, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with a strong bullish bias today, approaching the upper boundary of its monthly trading range.

From a technical perspective, the intraday breakout above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart supports a bullish outlook. In addition, momentum indicators remain in positive territory, confirming that buyers retain the upper hand. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to point to sustained bullish momentum, it has approached overbought territory, suggesting that a period of consolidation or a corrective pullback may be ahead. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, indicating that buyers continue to maintain control in the short term.

However, the current upward momentum may encounter resistance near $4,200, as overbought signals on the indicators could limit further gains if buying interest begins to fade. On the other hand, the nearest support is provided by the 200-period EMA at around $4,119. A break below this level would open the way for a deeper correction toward the confluence of the 20-period and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The next downward targets are the 100-period SMA, followed by the $4,020 level and the key psychological support at $4,000.

The test of the 1.3459 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for long positions. As a result, the pair advanced by 15 points.

The July UK business activity report came in convincingly strong, providing support for the pound. The services sector, which accounts for the largest share of the UK economy, returned to growth for the first time in three months, while the Composite PMI for the private sector rose to 52.2 from 49.3, moving back into expansion territory for the first time since April. As these indices are leading indicators that are among the first to reflect shifts in business sentiment, their improvement provided an important signal of economic recovery. Nevertheless, the pound reacted with only modest gains, as concerns over the labor market tempered investors' enthusiasm. Employment in the services sector has now declined for the 22nd consecutive month. This troubling contrast with the broader economic recovery prompted market participants to view the report with caution. Although the data supported the pound, the sustainability of its gains against the U.S. dollar remains uncertain.

During the second half of the day, the pound's direction will largely be determined by U.S. economic events, as there are no major domestic catalysts scheduled for the UK. Investors will focus on the ISM Services PMI, the Composite PMI, the ADP Employment Change report, and remarks from FOMC member Lisa Cook. The PMI data provide insight into business activity, the ADP report serves as an early indicator of labor market conditions, and comments from Federal Reserve officials help shape expectations regarding future monetary policy. Together, these events are likely to influence the direction of the U.S. dollar. Until the data are released, the pound is likely to track overall market risk sentiment. However, heightened volatility is expected during the U.S. session, and the outcome may ultimately favor the dollar.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3468 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.3485 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3485, I plan to close my long positions and open short positions, anticipating a 30–35 point pullback from that level. The pound is likely to strengthen today only if the U.S. data come in weaker than expected. Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if the 1.3457 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.3468 and 1.3485 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below the 1.3457 level (the red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The primary downward target for sellers will be 1.3438, where I intend to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pound is likely to return if the U.S. data come in strong. Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if the 1.3468 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3457 and 1.3438 can be expected.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line – the suggested entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line – the suggested Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, as further upside beyond this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the suggested entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line – the suggested Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay close attention to overbought and oversold conditions indicated by the MACD.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major economic releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire trading capital very quickly, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.

Finally, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1542 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for long positions. However, the pair failed to generate any significant upward momentum.

The July eurozone business activity report came in stronger than expected, providing support for the euro. The Composite PMI rose to 52.0 from 50.0, while the services sector returned to growth for the first time in three months, pointing to quarterly GDP growth of around 0.3%. Since services account for the largest share of the eurozone economy, the sector's recovery was an important positive signal. France remained the only major underperformer, while Germany returned to growth and Spain posted particularly strong expansion. Easing inflationary pressures and business optimism rising to its highest level since January further reinforced the positive outlook. Nevertheless, the single currency reacted with only modest gains. The restrained market response was largely due to a cautionary remark from S&P Global Chief Economist Chris Williamson, who noted that much of the improvement was supported by lower oil prices in June, while the renewed escalation in the Middle East has once again increased risks to both economic growth and inflation.

The euro will spend the second half of the day awaiting key U.S. economic data that could shift market sentiment. The ISM Services PMI, the Composite PMI, and the ADP Employment Change report are scheduled for release, followed by remarks from FOMC member Lisa Cook. The ADP report is closely watched because it provides an early indication of labor market conditions, while the PMI data offer insight into business activity. Both releases have a direct impact on expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. The outlook for the euro is straightforward. Forecasts suggest the data are likely to come in relatively strong, and if confirmed, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures would support the euro. Lisa Cook's speech also deserves close attention, as any hints regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy path could trigger sharp moves in the pair. As a result, elevated volatility is expected during the U.S. session.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches 1.1545 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1565. At 1.1565, I intend to exit my long positions and consider opening short positions in anticipation of a 30–35 point pullback from the entry level. A stronger euro can be expected if the U.S. data come in weaker than forecast. Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the 1.1532 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.1545 and 1.1565 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1532 (the red line on the chart). The downward target will be 1.1509, where I intend to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the U.S. data come in strong. Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the 1.1545 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1532 and 1.1509 can be expected.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line – the suggested entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line – the suggested Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, as further upside beyond this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the suggested entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line – the suggested Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay close attention to overbought and oversold conditions indicated by the MACD.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major economic releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire trading capital very quickly, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.

Finally, remember that successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market movements is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The latest economic data was well received by traders. Eurozone business activity expanded at the fastest pace in eight months in July, with the Composite PMI rising from 50.0 to 52.0. The services sector returned to growth for the first time in three months, climbing to 51.7 from 49.4 in June. Additional positive signals came from Germany, where business activity expanded for the first time since March, while Spain posted its strongest growth in nearly a year and a half. Business optimism also reached its highest level since January. The euro reacted with modest gains, as the improving economic outlook supported the single currency. However, the advance remained limited.

The UK services sector also returned to growth in July for the first time in three months, with the Services PMI rising to 52.1 from 48.8 in June. The Composite PMI for the private sector also moved back into expansion territory, increasing to 52.2 from 49.3, marking the first expansion since April. PMI indicators are based on business surveys and measure the pace of economic activity, with the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction. Therefore, the services sector's return above this level confirmed improving economic conditions. The pound responded with modest gains, as stronger business activity supported the currency and reinforced confidence in the resilience of the UK economy.

During the second half of the day, market participants will focus on a busy U.S. economic calendar, including the ISM Services PMI, the S&P Global Composite PMI, the ADP Employment Change report, and remarks by FOMC member Lisa Cook. PMI indicators reflect business activity based on corporate surveys, with readings above 50 signaling expansion, while the ADP report is widely viewed as an early indicator of labor market conditions and often shapes expectations ahead of the official employment report. Cook's remarks could also influence market sentiment, as investors closely monitor Federal Reserve officials for clues about the future path of interest rates.

The data are expected to come in relatively strong, which supports the case for further U.S. dollar strength. This creates downside risks for both the euro and the pound, as stronger-than-expected figures could put pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Conversely, weaker data would likely weigh on the dollar and provide additional support for risk-sensitive assets.

If the U.S. data come in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1557 could push the euro toward 1.1592 and 1.1620.
• A breakout below 1.1528 could send the euro lower toward 1.1504 and 1.1482.

GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3474 could drive the pound toward 1.3503 and 1.3539.
• A breakout below 1.3444 could send the pound lower toward 1.3419 and 1.3393.

USD/JPY

• A breakout above 157.93 could lift the U.S. dollar toward 158.28 and 158.57.
• A breakout below 157.69 could trigger a decline toward 157.40 and 157.05.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Fade the Move) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 1.1548 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price fails to hold below 1.1528 and returns above this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 1.3473 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price fails to hold below 1.3447 and returns above this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 0.7060 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price fails to hold below 0.7038 and returns above this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 1.4076 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price fails to hold below 1.4056 and returns above this level.

As this market structure continues to develop, it is worth revisiting a well-known historical trading principle based on Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. At present, it once again points to a potential buying opportunity. The "500-Day Rule," popularized online, suggests buying Bitcoin approximately 500 days before a halving event and selling it roughly 500 days afterward—a strategy that has historically generated returns of up to 34 times the initial investment. According to this theory, market bottoms have formed, on average, 477 days before each halving, followed by the beginning of a new upward trend, while the peak of the subsequent bull cycle has typically occurred around 480 days after the event itself. Based on the most recent halving on April 20, 2024, the next accumulation window is expected to open toward the end of November this year, while the theoretical sell signal would arrive around mid-August 2029.

However, the mechanism underlying this pattern may fail during the current cycle. This is the first Bitcoin halving cycle to take place with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs already established, whose daily inflows can exceed the value of newly mined coins. As a result, institutional demand and the broader macroeconomic environment now play a greater role than the reduction in new supply itself. The amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation through mining has become negligible compared with inflows into spot ETFs and purchases by corporate treasuries. Moreover, it was outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs that marked both this year's market top and the subsequent reversal.

Nevertheless, not everyone is ready to dismiss the pattern. Until proven otherwise, the four-year cycle remains a structural anchor of Bitcoin's market dynamics, having persisted for the past 15 years. Its foundation lies in miners' economics, which help establish the market's price floor and trigger the systematic capitulation of weaker participants. This is consistent with the recently observed wave of miner capitulation, during which mining difficulty declined by nearly 20% from its peak while mining companies increasingly shifted their focus toward AI infrastructure. In any case, the validity of this rule can only be fully confirmed or disproven by 2029.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and trading scenarios are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry point around $64,200, with a target at $64,600. I plan to exit long positions around $64,600 and immediately open a short position on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the $64,000 support level if there is no bearish market reaction following a false breakout, targeting $64,200 and $64,600.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry point around $64,000, with a downward target at $63,400. I plan to exit short positions around $63,400 and immediately open a long position on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the $64,200 resistance level if there is no bullish market reaction following a false breakout, targeting $64,000 and $63,600.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry point around $1,872, with a target at $1,885. I plan to exit long positions around $1,885 and immediately open a short position on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the $1,864 support level if there is no bearish market reaction following a false breakout, targeting $1,872 and $1,885.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry point around $1,864, with a downward target at $1,853. I plan to exit short positions around $1,853 and immediately open a long position on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the $1,872 resistance level if there is no bullish market reaction following a false breakout, targeting $1,864 and $1,853.

Silver jumped sharply after a new wave of threats from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, while Brent crude also rose on concerns over possible supply disruptions. A breakthrough in the auto industry — NVIDIA opened commercial access to the powerful Alpamayo 2 Super model for autonomous driving — could accelerate AI adoption in transport and affect tech stock prices. A wave of downgrades to Apple's ratings amid rising memory-chip costs is calling profitability into question even amid strong device demand. All of these events increase volatility and create both opportunities and risks for traders and investors, requiring careful strategy and position management.

Silver surges on threats to US warships from Iran

Silver rose sharply — more than 3% — to around $59.50 per ounce. The move was triggered by a deterioration in the US-Iran confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz, which has once again driven demand for precious metals as safe havens.

Silver outpaced gold in percentage terms, reflecting its greater price elasticity: in times of geopolitical tension the metal serves as both a precious and an industrial commodity.

The rally was prompted by hardline rhetoric from Major General Mohsen Rezaei — senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader and a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Rezaei warned that Iran will not allow the creation of an "unauthorised route" through the Strait of Hormuz and said US ships could face "serious consequences" if they try to force it. That statement went beyond a diplomatic rejection and amounted to a direct threat of military confrontation.

The warning came after President Trump described his latest offer to Tehran as a "last chance" to strike a deal, while Iran denied that any talks — ongoing or planned — were taking place.

US Central Command reported that it has redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded another two as part of an ongoing naval blockade, highlighting the operational risks in the strait, through which roughly a fifth of global oil transit historically passes.

According to Trading Economics, on 4 August, silver rose to $59.42, gaining 3% from the previous session. Yahoo Finance reported the metal reached $59.50 in the morning session, while the spot price at the start of the Asian session was $58.88.

The price rise reflects silver's dual nature. On the one hand, as a precious metal, silver benefits alongside gold from an inflow of "defensive" investment during geopolitical tensions. On the other hand, as an industrial input used in solar panels, electronics and EVs, it is sensitive to changes in forecasts for global economic growth. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect an average silver price of about $71.90 per ounce in 2026, while UBS forecasts a recovery to $65 by September.

The current situation creates trading opportunities: volatility and price moves in silver can support short-term and medium-term strategies. It is important to consider the risks and have a clear position-management plan, since geopolitical news can quickly change the picture.

Instruments mentioned in the article are available for trading on the InstaForex platform, so users may consider opening a trading account and downloading the company's mobile app to react swiftly to market changes.

Oil prices rise amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude jumped sharply on Tuesday, 4 August, after a fresh spike in geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of supply disruptions along this key oil corridor. Prices rose following reports of intensified military confrontation in the strait, which historically carries about one-fifth of global crude shipments.

The Strait of Hormuz has been the focal point of oil?market volatility throughout 2026 following the start of the US-Iran conflict in late February. At the peak, a de facto closure of the strait halted shipments of up to 14 million barrels per day — an interruption the International Energy Agency called the largest in history.

Although a June truce briefly reopened navigation, a US naval blockade introduced in mid-July and renewed strikes on Iran have triggered a renewed price surge.

At the end of July, futures on Brent closed at $90.12 per barrel after reports that Iran was forcing tankers to turn back. Month?on?month prices registered their biggest gain since March. Renewed early-August disruptions have heightened fears over constrained physical supplies: traders are pricing in a risk premium for immediate delivery.

The IEA reported in July that global oil supply still stood 9.4 million b/d below pre-crisis levels despite a 4.1 million b/d recovery in June when the strait was briefly open. The agency warned that a new escalation "could overturn the forecast that the market will move into surplus next year."

CNBC reports that global oil demand is expected to fall year-on-year in 2026 for the first time since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic — a drop of 1 million b/d — as the war significantly hit output and trade flows.

JP Morgan forecasts Brent will average $86/b in Q3 2026, a level consistent with current trading ranges amid persistent supply concerns.

Traders can exploit the situation: volatility creates opportunities for short-term trades, hedging and arbitrage strategies. However, the high risks require adequate risk-management tools.

NVIDIA opens its most advanced AI model for autopilot

NVIDIA on Tuesday opened commercial access to Alpamayo 2 Super — a 34?billion?parameter reasoning model designed for autonomous vehicles — under the OpenMDW?1.1 license from the Linux Foundation.

The release lifts licensing restrictions that previously limited the Alpamayo model family to research use only, allowing automakers, robotaxi operators, and suppliers to deploy the technology in production without additional permission from NVIDIA.

The model, which NVIDIA calls the most in?demand open reasoning family for autonomous driving on Hugging Face — with more than 500,000 downloads — combines a 32-billion-parameter language-vision backbone built on Cosmos 3 Super Reasoner with a 2-billion-parameter diffusion?based action decoder.

Alpamayo 2 Super is intended as a developer tool rather than software to directly control vehicles. It functions as a "teacher model" in cloud workflows: generating chains of reasoning, synthetic training data and motion trajectories that can then be distilled into smaller models optimized for embedded automotive hardware such as NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor.

For each driving scenario, the model produces five interrelated outputs: – a planned trajectory, – a chain of causal reasoning explaining the decision, – a high-level meta-action (for example, yield or change lane), – automatically generated reasoning labels for training data, – answers to visual questions tied to specific regions in camera images.

This consolidates capabilities that previously required maintaining separate models at each stage of the development workflow.

NVIDIA says the model scores 79.2 on the LingoQA benchmark for visual question answering, ranking first among nearly 40 evaluated models. It outperforms Qwen2.5-VL (72B) by 17 points, Gemini 2.5 Pro by 15.1 points, and GPT-4o by 23.2 points.

The Alpamayo family debuted at CES 2026 in January, when CEO Jensen Huang introduced the original 10-billion-parameter model, positioned as the industry's first chain-of-thought reasoning model for autonomous?driving research. Alpamayo 2 Super was announced at GTC Taipei on 31 May, with commercial availability slated for summer 2026.

The model targets so-called long-tail events — rare and complex road scenarios such as workers directing traffic at construction sites, atypical emergency-services behaviour, or foreign objects on the roadway — which conventional perception systems struggle to handle.

NVIDIA's chains of causation integrate with Halos safety-validation workflows to meet ISO/PAS 8800 — the safety standard for AI systems in road vehicles.

For traders, this is a signal: news of commercial availability, impressive benchmark results and industrial deployment could affect NVIDIA's shares and those of related IT/autonomy companies. That creates trading opportunities on volatile market moves, but remember to manage risks according to your trading strategy.

Apple hit with three analyst downgrades

Apple shares came under pressure on Tuesday after a wave of analyst downgrades: Wall Street analysts warned that rising memory-chip prices will continue to squeeze the company's margins despite strong consumer demand.

Phillip Capital cut Apple to "reduce" from "neutral," keeping its price target at $290 — below the recent close. Analyst Helena Wang noted that despite ongoing demand for the iPhone 17 and MacBook, the sharp rise in memory costs offsets that positive momentum.

"Memory price inflation is becoming a serious margin pressure factor," Wang wrote, stressing that the DRAM market is controlled by only three suppliers, leaving Apple "minimal flexibility in sourcing."

DZ Bank also downgraded Apple to "hold" from "buy," setting a $310 target and citing rising memory costs and supply chain constraints. China Renaissance likewise cut to "hold" from "buy" with a $280 target after Apple's guidance for Q4 disappointed expectations.

The downgrades followed Apple's report last week of record Q3 results that beat revenue and EPS expectations on strong iPhone and Mac demand. However, the company issued weak near?term guidance due to the global chip shortage, triggering an almost 10% drop in the stock after the report on Thursday.

Apple has already raised prices on iPad and several Mac models in response to higher component costs, and some analysts expect iPhone prices to rise next. The memory shortage — dubbed "RAM-geddon" on Wall Street — is driven by a surge in demand for AI-capable devices that require significantly more DRAM and NAND flash.

For traders, this translates into trading opportunities: heightened volatility offers chances for short-term strategies, hedging or trading downside.

He argues the danger lies not only in overheated valuations of AI-related companies but in a much less visible — yet potentially more dangerous — mechanism: funds that automatically adjust their stock allocations based on volatility. Michael Burry estimates the aggregate size of such strategies at roughly $500 billion.

The logic of the risk is mechanical rather than psychological, which makes it especially worrying. While markets are calm, these funds gradually increase their exposure to risky assets. But once stocks start to fall, the algorithms simultaneously and synchronously trim positions, amplifying the sell-off instead of dampening it. Burry's calculations suggest that a drop of just 2.5% in the S&P 500 could force these funds to cut stock allocations from about 77% to 50%. That triggers a classic chain reaction: selling pushes volatility higher, higher volatility provokes further selling, which in turn hits stop orders and accelerates the decline.

Michael Burry sees a similar mechanism as having intensified the crash on Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones plunged 22.6% in a single session — the largest one-day fall in its history. The historical parallel is important: the 1987 crash was driven less by fundamentals than by technical portfolio strategies that, in a panic, sold stock simultaneously and amplified the collapse rather than mitigating it. Burry's warning essentially points to the re?accumulation of a structurally similar mechanism in today's system — now embodied in modern volatility-targeting funds rather than the portfolio-insurance schemes of the 1980s.

Markets continue to weigh the conflicting rhetoric from Washington and Tehran. Qatar says mediators have made progress toward ending the war, while Iran denies President Trump's claims that talks are even taking place. Axios reports the US, Iran, and Oman are close to an agreement to normalise shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with an announcement possibly coming as soon as Wednesday. Any progress there would likely push oil lower, ease inflation fears and send bond yields down — all of which gold would welcome.

Oil and gold dynamics

The precious metal remains linked to oil: crude price swings are still an important indicator of global inflationary pressure for gold. If a clear de-escalation roadmap appears, XAU/USD would have reason to extend its rally.

Markets have already pared back expectations for Fed tightening this year from two hikes to one. Less monetary restriction traditionally favors gold, which pays no interest and suffers when borrowing costs are high.

Capital flows into Chinese ETFs

Meanwhile, a real sentiment shift is occurring in the physical market. China's institutional investors have funneled capital into gold-oriented ETFs for 14 consecutive days — the longest streak since March. Shanghai prices are trading at a modest premium to the London benchmark, making offshore purchases of metal more attractive for banks. The Bank of Korea has returned to buying gold, and Asian ETF inflows confirm a shift in sentiment in the East after a prolonged period of sell?offs driven by the Middle East conflict.

Central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and dedollarisation remain the bulls' main trump cards for gold. However, the futures market is still priced for tighter policy — implied rates rise through 2027. Will the US-Iran conflict resolve quickly enough to overturn those expectations?

Technically, on the daily chart, gold is attempting to breach the upper band of the $3,965–$4,165/oz consolidation range. Success would allow the bulls to move into a trend phase, justify fresh buying and increase the probability of a Wolf Wave pattern playing out, with targets near $5,215.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with a strong bullish bias today, approaching the upper boundary of its monthly trading range. Renewed optimism over a potential agreement between the United States and Iran, along with the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has reduced expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. As a result, U.S. dollar bulls remain on the defensive, providing key support for the precious metal, which is advancing for the second consecutive session.

Despite mixed signals, market participants continue to expect a diplomatic resolution to the five-month conflict between the United States and Iran. In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington could reach an agreement with Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz as early as Wednesday, paving the way for a more normalized resolution of the confrontation. Separately, Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the United States, Iran, and Oman are close to reaching an interim agreement on restoring operations along this strategically important waterway.

Meanwhile, OPEC+'s decision on Sunday to increase oil production starting in September has eased supply concerns and pushed oil prices to their lowest level since June 13. This, in turn, has reduced inflationary pressures and tempered expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, weighing on the U.S. dollar while supporting gold.

However, traders continue to price in a high probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year, supported by signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market.

Data released on Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that the number of job openings declined slightly to 7.36 million but remained above last year's levels. In addition, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson expressed support for further monetary policy tightening and additional rate hikes to combat inflation.

This may discourage U.S. dollar bears from opening aggressive positions, as attention remains focused on the official employment data—the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is scheduled for release on Friday. The key event on this week's economic calendar will be the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, with current market expectations pointing to approximately 80,000 new jobs. According to these estimates, only moderate monthly job growth is currently needed to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate, while the labor market's breakeven pace is unlikely to be significantly above 50,000 jobs per month, if it exceeds that level at all. Moreover, maintaining a stable unemployment rate no longer requires substantial job growth because labor force growth has slowed considerably compared with the pre-pandemic period.

To identify short-term trading opportunities, traders should closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data during the North American session, including the ADP private employment report and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). In addition, further developments related to the Middle East crisis could also serve as catalysts for movements in both the U.S. dollar and gold.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for XAU/USD bulls and continues to favor further intraday gains.

From a technical perspective, the intraday breakout above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports a bullish outlook. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Therefore, the technical picture currently appears to have shifted in favor of the bulls, reinforcing the potential for further gains.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has turned bullish. Although the last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, the most recent upward wave also exceeded the previous high. Geopolitical developments have raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen this week. Iran, the United States, and Oman are holding negotiations regarding control over transit through the strait. As a result, geopolitics is currently weighing against the dollar, while the market's hawkish expectations regarding FOMC monetary policy continue to ease.

Tuesday's news background gave the bulls an opportunity to launch a moderate advance, and they successfully took advantage of it. The JOLTS report on U.S. job openings came in below market expectations, putting modest pressure on the U.S. dollar. Today, Donald Trump stated that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached between Oman, Iran, and the United States as early as today, which is also putting pressure on the dollar's safe-haven appeal. The dollar is not experiencing a sharp decline despite expectations that oil shipments will resume and energy prices will fall. Market participants remain cautious about any announcements regarding a potential agreement, especially those made personally by Donald Trump. Traders have already seen numerous agreements that were supposedly "just days away" from being signed. As a result, the dollar is currently not a priority for market participants. Bulls continue to press higher and are looking for additional support from upcoming U.S. labor market and unemployment data.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, suggesting not merely a bullish correction but the beginning of a full-fledged bullish trend. Consolidation above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1514 supports the case for continued growth toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1578. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 15,490 long positions and opened 15,691 short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war involving Iran, while over the past eighteen weeks the positioning has become more balanced amid the perceived ceasefire and market expectations that the conflict would come to an end. Speculative traders now hold approximately 205,000 long positions and 277,000 short positions. The bears are once again regaining the upper hand.

Overall, large market participants continue to maintain a favorable long-term outlook for the euro. Naturally, global events of various kinds—which have been in no short supply in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market remains focused on developments in the Middle East, where the conflict repeatedly appears to end only to resume again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and later paid little attention to the renewed hostilities. As a result, geopolitics is no longer the sole factor determining the dollar's direction.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

United States

• ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for August 5 includes two releases that can be considered important. The ADP report is the first key U.S. labor market release ahead of the official employment data, while the ISM Services PMI is significant in its own right. Therefore, macroeconomic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Long positions could be opened following a rebound from 1.1507 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1551. That target has now been almost reached. A consolidation above 1.1551 would justify maintaining long positions with a target at 1.1620.

Short positions may be considered if the pair rebounds from 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.1507 and 1.1472.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave picture remains bearish, despite how strange that may sound. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the last upward wave failed to break above the previous high. Thus, the bears still retain the initiative in the market, although they may lose it in the near future. In my view, the 2026 bearish impulse has already run its course, and only geopolitical developments can prevent the bulls from extending their advance. Geopolitics, however, remains contradictory.

Tuesday's news background did not allow the bears to continue their sluggish attack. The only notable report of the day, the JOLTS job openings report, was unfavorable for the dollar, while geopolitical developments unexpectedly began to improve. Donald Trump frequently speaks about various hypothetical negotiations and agreements, making it difficult to take all of his statements at face value. However, today the U.S. president said that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as today. So far, media outlets have not confirmed this information, and Iran denied any negotiations with the United States as recently as yesterday. Nevertheless, according to Trump, the final agreement will be concluded between the United States, Iran, and Oman. It is still impossible to know how long any new agreement would remain in force before being violated, or what its actual terms would be. Therefore, there are still few reasons for optimism. However, if Trump's information is confirmed, it will not necessarily benefit the dollar. Oil prices could continue to decline in this scenario, significantly reducing the risk of faster inflation in the United States over the coming months. As a result, the Federal Reserve may soften its hawkish stance even further.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair advanced to the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level before rebounding from it. This rebound suggests a potential decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. A consolidation above the 1.3467–1.3482 level would allow traders to anticipate continued growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at 1.3538. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculative traders decreased by 2,824, while short positions increased by 6,429. The current balance between long and short positions stands at approximately 61,000 versus 126,000. The gap, and the bears' advantage, continues to narrow gradually. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestioned, but the changing news background has begun to challenge that view.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. In the near term, however, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had truly begun. There is also no guarantee that they will resume anytime soon.

U.S. and UK Economic Calendar:

United States

• ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for August 5 contains two releases that I consider sufficiently important. As a result, macroeconomic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3454–1.3458 resistance level on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.3397 and 1.3348. Long positions may be considered if the pair consolidates above the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with an upward target of 1.3526–1.3557.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Global indices moved to fresh record levels as investors renewed their bets on the AI theme, driving chip stocks higher. The MSCI All-Country World index gained about 0.4% and is currently heading for another record close, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific benchmark jumped by 2.2%. Australian markets also hit highs. The move followed Tuesday's record closes for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.

Oil and the dollar fell on prospects of a tentative US–Iran deal. Brent eased by 0.8% to roughly $78.75/bbl after Axios reported Washington, Tehran, and Oman are close to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with an announcement expected on Wednesday. Treasuries and gold rallied as traders pared back Fed-hike expectations.

The chip sector was again centre stage, with a mixed picture across names. SK Hynix surged by about 6.7% in Seoul, Nvidia rose by roughly 2.2% in after-hours trade after Elon Musk praised the company's Vera Rubin chips. Caution remained: SpaceX shares fell by 7.5% after the company guided to higher-than-expected AI-related spending, and Advanced Micro Devices tumbled by roughly 9% on a disappointing sales outlook.

Tech results over the past week show that capex on AI will continue to accelerate — a source of encouragement for investors, particularly because valuations now look more reasonable after the recent correction. If the first phase of the AI rally was driven by chips, the next phase may increasingly belong to platforms that actually deploy the technology. Strong earnings also reassure investors that demand for AI is intact, while lower oil and yields ease pressure on multiples.

Regarding geopolitics, a US–Iran deal would help normalize commercial traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk of renewed Middle East hostilities. That would be positive for the Fed's calculus and for interest rate dynamics, supporting equities over time.

Technically, the S&P 500 daily chart shows that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,774. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,793. Holding above $7,810 would further strengthen bulls' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,756. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,737 and open the way to $7,718.

Dynamics of S&P 500, hyperscalers, and hedge fund trades

After a sharp correction, chipmakers delivered their best four-day rally since 2020. At first glance, the move looks like proof that the sell-off in the tech giants and the Magnificent Seven is exhausted. Absolute Strategy Research points to an ETF that tracks Goldman Sachs' hedge-fund positions: its decline and subsequent rebound closely mirrored the performance of hyperscaler stocks. It appears to be less a victory over geopolitics than the unwinding of overly leveraged speculative positions.

Monetary policy helps as well. Inflation expectations have collapsed over the past two months — roughly since Kevin Warsh took the helm of the Fed. An inflation forecast below the 2% target naturally reduces fears of further rate hikes. Wells Fargo notes that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could normalize global oil supplies and relieve short-term pressure on energy prices, thereby easing the inflation puzzle.

Dynamics of US inflation expectations

However, inflation does not normalize overnight. Energy pressure can ease, but broader price indices risk staying sticky, which would limit the potential decline in Treasury yields. Especially since the Fed left interest rates unchanged while an increasing number of officials have started talking about hikes, the war with Iran and the AI investment boom are feeding inflationary risks.

In the labor market, there is a kind of Goldilocks regime for now: job openings fell in June, but hiring ticked up slightly, indicating relatively stable demand for workers. This gives the Fed room to maneuver and allows it to focus on inflation. That said, the Friday jobs report for July could quickly rewrite the script. Strong numbers would strengthen the case for a September rate hike. Weak numbers, combined with last week's disappointing GDP, would give the central bank reason to remain on pause.

Thus, Wall Street's rally currently rests on three pillars at once: rumors of a deal over the Strait of Hormuz, the covering of short positions by overleveraged hedge funds, and faith in the restraint of the new Fed chair. All three supports remain assumptions rather than established facts. Has the market already booked itself an advance too early?

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has resumed its uptrend. The emphasis on buying should be maintained, and the target of 7,870 should be raised to 8,000.

The rally was triggered by statements from several parties involved in the negotiations. President Trump stated to reporters in Los Angeles on Tuesday that talks with Iran are "progressing very well," and Axios reported that Washington, Tehran, and Oman are close to an agreement, with the U.S. looking to announce it later on Wednesday. Qatar stated that a draft proposal has already been prepared, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz could be finalized on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The mechanics of how this news affects gold are direct and well known: markets are now fully pricing in only one Fed rate hike by the end of the year, down from two just a week ago. A less hawkish monetary policy is generally positive for non-yielding precious metals, which explains the sharp price movement.

The scale of gold's decline since the start of the conflict remains a significant reminder of the depth of the correction it has undergone. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in late February, the metal has decreased by more than one-fifth, as the conflict has fueled energy prices, heightened inflationary pressure, and increased the likelihood that rates will remain high for longer. Nevertheless, at the end of last month, Fed representatives decided to keep policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, although three dissenters once again expressed support for a hike.

The position of the Fed itself remains far from unanimous. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who voted with the majority, stated on Tuesday that she keeps an "open mind" regarding the future direction of policy, as the signals on whether current policy is sufficiently restrictive remain conflicting. Separately, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmidt, in a prepared speech at an event in Omaha, stated that higher rates are necessary to achieve the Fed's price stability goal.

An additional, structurally important factor supporting gold in recent weeks has been Chinese institutional investors, who helped halt the decline triggered by the war and keep prices above the key threshold of $4,000 per ounce.

As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,186. This would allow targeting $4,249, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be in the $4,304 range. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,124. If successful, a breakout of this range could deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to a low of $4,062, with the potential to reach $4,008.

According to Axios, the details are becoming quite clear. The U.S., Iran, and Oman are preparing to announce a 60-day temporary agreement. The mechanism for passage through the strait is proposed to be bilateral: vessels will be able to enter the Persian Gulf through Iran's territorial waters and exit through Oman's waters in coordination with Tehran. The financial aspect of the deal is also significant: no maritime fees or tariffs will be charged, removing one of the main sticking points of recent months, as Iran has repeatedly insisted on the right to charge for vessels passing through waters it controls.

The agreement also includes a more long-term perspective. During the first 30 days, the parties plan to clear the central shipping corridor and begin preparations for a permanent agreement. This is a crucial point: the 60-day temporary deal is intended not as an end in itself, but as a transitional phase toward a comprehensive and sustainable agreement, and the demining of the central corridor should serve as a physical, not just diplomatic, confirmation of de-escalation.

The structure of the agreement, combining immediate normalization of shipping with the threat of renewed strikes in case of a breakdown, reflects a pattern characteristic of the entire history of this conflict: periods of diplomatic progress have invariably been accompanied by parallel military threats intended to maintain pressure on Tehran right up to the moment of signing. The next 48 hours, designated by Trump himself as the timeframe for clarifying the situation, will be crucial in determining whether today's optimism translates into a real agreement or the conflict returns to the familiar cycle of escalation and negotiations.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $76.30. This will set the target at $78.70, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be in the $80.51 range. In the event of an oil price decline, bears will attempt to take control at $73.79. If successful, a breakout of this range could deal a serious blow to bull positions and push oil down to a low of $71.69, with the potential to reach $69.58.

Meanwhile, a group of six researchers from Ethereum, including the president of Ethereum France, Jerome de Tychey, published a draft proposal EIP-8363 titled "Gradual Burning of Emission" on August 4. The document addresses a problem that previous protocol reforms failed to eliminate; the current emission curve continues to pay about 1.5% yield to validators even with nearly the entire supply staked. The emission mechanism is designed so that part of the rewards for validators for confirmations, block offerings, and participation in synchronization committees will be burned, with the percentage of burning increasing as the share of staked coins rises.

The current dynamics of the network explain the urgency of this proposal. The share of staked Ether has just reached a record 33.33%, with increasing concentration among holders such as Bitmine. According to the authors' calculations, if the current trend continues, by January 2028 the volume of staking could exceed 70 million coins in the worst-case scenario, accounting for more than 55% of the total supply.

The criticism of this proposal has been quite sharp. Many have opposed the limitation, warning that unpredictable staking yield could deter institutional investors and make Ethereum a less viable asset. Some solo staking experts warn that burning rewards risks pushing out smaller solo validators before it affects larger institutional structures, thereby weakening the decentralization the proposal is formally intended to protect.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $64,400, with a target of $64,800. At around $64,800, I plan to exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $64,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward $64,400 and $64,800.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today at an entry point around $64,200, targeting a drop to $64,000. At around $64,000, I plan to exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $64,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward $64,200 and $64,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,872, with a target of $1,885. At around $1,885, I plan to exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $1,864 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward $1,872 and $1,885.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,864, targeting a drop to $1,853. At around $1,853, I plan to exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $1,872 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward $1,864 and $1,853.

The price test at 157.80 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 40 pips.

Yesterday, the dollar was left without support as a batch of American data came in mixed and offered it no backing. The labor market in June was in equilibrium, with JOLTs indicators showing little change. The manufacturing sector provided a similarly ambiguous signal, with new orders decreasing by 0.3%. The lack of clear bias in the data prevented U.S. Treasury yields from rising, depriving the dollar of momentum. The Japanese yen received support amid the dollar's weakness. Modest yields in the U.S. narrowed the rate gap with Japan and made the yen more attractive, pushing USD/JPY downward. This decline in the pair shifted the focus away from the theme of currency intervention, which the central bank actively conducted at the end of last week in coordination with the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, any significant decline in the pair will be seen as a buying opportunity, as the real reasons that pushed the yen down all this time have not disappeared.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 157.87 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 158.22 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 158.22, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 157.61, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 157.87 and 158.22.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 157.61 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.29, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Sellers will return at any moment; all that is needed is any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.87 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 157.61 and 157.29.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3447 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound; however, a significant increase in the pair did not materialize.

Disappointing data from the U.S. set the tone for trading yesterday, leaving the dollar without support. The labor market in June did not present any surprises, as the JOLTs report showed steady figures of 7.4 million job openings, 5.3 million hires, and 5.4 million separations. Such balance, without signs of overheating or cooling, did not provide the Federal Reserve with grounds to tighten its rhetoric, thereby weakening the American currency. The British pound capitalized on this weakness and strengthened against the dollar. The industrial data only amplified the sense of ambiguity, as new orders fell by 0.3%.

Today, in the first half of the day, the direction of the pound will be set by data on the UK services sector activity index and the composite PMI. These indices are based on surveys of purchasing managers and reflect the state of business activity, with values above 50 indicating growth and below indicating a decline. The services sector carries particular weight, as it constitutes a large part of the British economy; therefore, its indicators serve as a key benchmark for assessing its health and directly influence expectations regarding the Bank of England's interest rate. This is why strong data can help the pound's further growth against the dollar. Strong activity in services will reinforce confidence in economic resilience and provide support for the British currency, allowing the GBP/USD pair to continue its recent rise.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching an entry point in the area of 1.3459 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to the level of 1.3473 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3473, I plan to exit the market and sell in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Growth in the pound can be anticipated today only after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3446 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3459 and 1.3473.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3446 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3428, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3459 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3446 and 1.3428.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.