Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price has clearly broken out of a previous descending channel (marked in blue), which had pressured it toward a low in the 86.35–86.95 range. Subsequently, the price staged a strong rebound, establishing an upward trajectory within a steep, secondary ascending channel (marked in pink/red). Despite temporary corrective pullbacks, the price is consistently attempting to hold its position above the median line of this ascending channel.

Interaction with Pivot Levels: During its recent upward surge, the price broke through the daily pivot point at 89.39, targeting the area near the first daily resistance level (Daily R1) at 92.13. Although a recent short-term corrective pullback pushed the price back toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, it currently remains supported above the daily pivot, keeping the potential for a continued positive trend intact.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 92.13 (Daily R1 and the most recent intraday high).

Second Resistance: 93.77 (Daily R2).

Pivotal Resistance: 96.51 (Daily R3 and the upper boundary of the broken descending channel).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 89.39 (Daily Pivot point and current pivotal level).

Second Support: 87.75 – 87.60 (Daily S1 and a nearby local low).

Pivotal Support: 86.35 and below (the most recent major low and the lower boundary of the price range).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations:

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive outlook is favored for the intraday timeframe, provided the price remains stable above the daily pivot point of 89.39 and above the boundaries of the newly formed ascending channel.

Recommendation: Consider long positions (buying) if the price holds above 89.39, or upon a corrective pullback toward the 90.00 level.

Technical Targets: A retest of the first daily resistance at 92.13, followed by an extension toward 93.77.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if selling pressure returns and the price fails to hold above the daily pivot point, shifting the trend back to the downside.

Confirmation Condition: A clear hourly candle close below the 89.39 level. Technical Objectives: A pullback to target the first daily support level at 87.75, followed by a test of the major low at 86.35.

Risk Management

Trading in crude oil markets requires adherence to strict capital management rules, given the rapid volatility and shifts in price momentum. Risk per trade should be capped at a maximum of 2%, and stop-loss orders must be precisely implemented to protect the portfolio.

Price Action on the Crude Oil Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at the 90.54 level within an ascending channel on the daily timeframe. It has experienced a sharp decline and selling pressure, pushing it below the monthly pivot point at 100.05, as well as the first monthly support level (Monthly S1) at 89.59.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday's and Today's):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected a steep decline and strong selling momentum, which led to a breakdown through the median lines and sub-channels, driving the price toward nearby support zones.

Today's Candle: Shows signs of slight consolidation, with trading stabilizing near the 90.54 level, though negative pressure remains dominant.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): This remains the most likely outcome as long as the price stays below the monthly pivot point and key resistance levels. The decline could potentially continue, targeting the next support level at 76.41 (Monthly S2).

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): This would be triggered if the price manages to establish a support base and regain buying momentum, allowing it to climb back above the first monthly support level and test nearby resistance levels.

Nasdaq Composite capitalisation losses

The Nasdaq Composite recorded the biggest market-cap loss in its history, led by chipmakers after disappointing profit outlooks and worries that Democratic control of Congress will bring tougher regulation of the AI industry. The sell-off spilled into risky assets as if someone pulled the support out from under the whole tech sector. Bitcoin fell into the $76,000 area — a September low — posting its steepest one-day drop in five months. Ether plunged alongside it.

A lingering negative for Bitcoin is that the market has yet to recover from the record $6.3 billion Binance hack and fading retail enthusiasm. Volatility in tech stocks added pressure, although a decline in Treasury yields would normally support speculative assets in a different scenario, so that factor's net effect is ambiguous.

Stock-market volatility dynamics

Investor anxiety that Democratic control of Congress will choke off industry-friendly legislation and impose tougher oversight on digital-asset firms also weighs on BTC/USD. Broader macro effects are unclear. Political gridlock could limit fiscal stimulus and depress speculative assets, while falling Treasury yields might eventually ease financial conditions in their favour.

In the days after the Binance hack, investors pulled $1 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bloomberg data show, with capital leaking from funds like water through a crack in a dam. BlackRock's IBIT was hit hardest, losing about $900 million.

The on-chain picture has changed, too. A month ago, almost all coins held by short-term holders (bought in the past 155 days) were in profit, like a bountiful harvest. That share has collapsed. Glassnode notes that most holders of those coins are now underwater.

One support factor for Bitcoin remains its integration into the traditional financial system. Glassnode argues that Democrats taking Congress is unlikely to dramatically shake market sentiment because Bitcoin is much more embedded in the broader financial system than in previous cycles — with banks, asset managers and ETFs on board.

Bitcoin long promised to remain detached from legacy markets, but this time, it could not hide.

Technically, the BTC/USD daily chart shows a long-bodied bar and a rejection at the moving averages. These are bearish signals that support maintaining short positions. Targets lie at $71,600 and $69,400.

As of Friday, gold prices (XAU/USD), after declining during the Asian session, have returned to Thursday's trading range. Quotes fell below the $4050 level amid a moderate strengthening of the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US currency against a basket of other currencies, continued to recover after reaching its lowest level since late September on Thursday. This put pressure on gold. At the same time, further declines have been limited as traders prefer to wait for the release of key US labor market data before opening large positions in either direction.The October US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 65 thousand jobs, up from 29 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Investors will also monitor changes in average hourly earnings, as wage growth could have a significant impact on expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Overall, the release of these key macroeconomic indicators could increase volatility in financial markets and affect demand for the US dollar, in turn providing additional momentum for gold price movements.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party's victory in the US midterm elections has heightened concerns that the development of the artificial intelligence sector could slow. Against this backdrop, Wall Street prices fell sharply on Thursday, while demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including US Treasury bonds, increased. However, the subsequent substantial rise in oil prices has renewed inflation concerns. In addition, traders continue to assign a probability of approximately 70% to a Fed rate hike at its December meeting. This limits the potential for further declines in US Treasury yields following their midweek drop and supports the dollar.The geopolitical risk premium also remains in place amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's next steps. On Thursday, he stated that the United States might have to "destroy the rest of Iran," adding that it would soon become clear whether he would take any action. Disagreements between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz also remain unresolved. These factors support the dollar as a safe-haven asset and, consequently, put pressure on gold. Despite this, the precious metal appears likely to end the week higher for the first time in three weeks and is holding firmly above the psychologically important $4000 level.From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a positive short-term bias, trading above the 20-day SMA. However, an intraday decline below the 20-day SMA should prompt caution among bulls. Oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming the advantage held by bears. The nearest resistance is located just above the round $4100 level. A sustained move above this mark would create conditions for a test of yesterday's high near $4155. Support is provided by the convergence of the 9-day and 14-day EMAs. The round $4000 level offers further support below.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against the specified major currencies today. The dollar has recorded its largest gain against the New Zealand dollar.

On Friday, the euro continued to decline for the second consecutive day. The US dollar remained in strong demand as risk appetite weakened following the sell-off in equity markets, which particularly affected the technology sector. During the European session, EUR/USD traded between 1.1180 and 1.1200, retreating from Thursday's highs near 1.1270. The positive German industrial production data released today failed to support the European currency.

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, industrial production increased by 0.7% in September. The figure exceeded market expectations, which had pointed to no change, and was higher than August's 0.1% increase. The improvement was mainly driven by the automotive and pharmaceutical industries. At the same time, declines were recorded in construction and the production of machinery and equipment.

Later on Friday, Eurostat will release September retail sales data for the eurozone. Analysts expect the indicator to decline by 0.1%, offsetting an increase of the same magnitude in August. Unless the data deliver an unexpectedly positive surprise, they are unlikely to provide significant support for the euro.

The US dollar, traditionally regarded by investors as a safe-haven asset, is benefiting from falling equity markets. The sell-off is linked to growing concerns about the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Shares of US and Asian chipmakers fell sharply as investors became concerned that a Democratic victory in the United States could lead to tighter regulation and the abandonment of plans to build data centers. OCBC strategists note that the combination of resilient US economic growth, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to further monetary policy tightening continues to favor the dollar overall.

Today, the October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later during the North American session, is the main focus for identifying trading opportunities. Labor market data released earlier this week were strong: initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in almost four months, ADP employment growth significantly exceeded forecasts, and the JOLTS report showed a sharp increase in job openings in September. If the NFP report confirms this picture, the dollar could receive additional support.

From a technical perspective, the pair remains under selling pressure, as indicated by negative oscillators and its recent failure to hold above the 20-day SMA. The pair is also trading below all key moving averages, further confirming bearish pressure. Selling pressure may ease somewhat if the pair consolidates above the 20-day SMA. The next resistance level is Thursday's high near 1.1270. Support is provided by the 1.1180–1.1150 level. The next major support level is 1.1100, below which the pair could accelerate its decline.

The table below shows how the euro has performed against the major currencies today. The euro has been weakest against the US dollar.

The key factor that triggered the sell-off is that the market priced out a wartime premium after the Democrats won the midterms. The president is signaling restraint, and Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could limit his ability to expand military action. Recall that on November 4, he said he was "ready to fight," but political constraints may remove the justification for a strike.

Hopes of a near-term end to the conflict are rising, but deep disagreements remain. Iran demands an end to the US maritime blockade, sanctions relief, and the unfreezing of assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US outlets report that Tehran is reviewing mediators' proposals on its nuclear program, and Qatar's shuttle diplomacy is intensifying. The frozen assets issue is not new — on October 21, reports surfaced about an interest-bearing arrangement for $6 billion in Qatari banks — but today, the political weakness of Washington is a new element.

Meanwhile, the physical market is softening. Gulf crude exports continue despite frequent attacks on vessels in Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has cut prices for Asian buyers even though Asian margins are at six-year lows. Producers are now competing for market share; Asian refiners and importers benefit, while exporters lose out on price, not volume.

The price path matters for central banks. If oil climbs back toward the highs, the Bank of England will be closer to a second hike, in Andrew Bailey's words, and the Fed, already weighing a December move, would have another reason to tighten. That is why Brent's $19-range swings ripple through FX: expensive oil supports the dollar and pressures the pound and euro.

I believe the market is paying not for actual supply shortfalls, which are not currently the problem, but for the White House's decision. With Trump weighing a strike versus a deal and Tehran making unacceptable demands, any report from Axios or similar outlets can swing prices by 3–4%. I expect Brent to trade around $100 in the near term, with risk of sudden moves both ways. Only a real agreement to secure Hormuz would produce a sustained downtrend.

Technically, the immediate task for buyers is to reclaim resistance at $92. That would open a target near $95, above which progress becomes more difficult. The next target is around $98. On the downside, bears aim to take control at $89. A break below that level would be a serious blow to bulls and could drive oil to $87, with a further target near $84.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders have been expecting at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US dollar, while traders consider other factors secondary.

There was no significant economic news on Thursday, but the currency market had plenty of developments to assess. First, traders reassessed their initial interpretation of the US election results and concluded that the change in the balance of power in Congress could benefit the US dollar. At the very least, the Democrats' victory in the congressional elections is not necessarily negative for the dollar. As a result, the US currency resumed its appreciation.

Overnight, it became known that Donald Trump is still considering the possibility of completely destroying Iran. This would increase geopolitical tensions, which had only recently eased following conciliatory statements from Democrats. However, as developments suggest, Trump has no intention of ending the conflict because of the election losses. Oil prices are rising again, while the US dollar is benefiting from demand for safe-haven assets.

Today, the United States will also release important Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports, which will indicate whether September's disappointing figures were an isolated occurrence. The US dollar's appreciation ahead of these releases suggests that the market is anticipating positive results. However, forecasts indicate that neither report is likely to show particularly encouraging figures. The dollar could weaken in the second half of the day.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar after the CCI indicator formed a second bearish divergence. Consolidation below the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1221 supports the prospect of further declines toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No new emerging divergences are currently visible.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,225 Long positions and 13,595 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 231,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 374,000. Bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributable to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's intention to bring inflation down. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Naturally, various global developments, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unexpected events. Therefore, the European currency is waiting for more favorable conditions.

US and Eurozone Economic Calendar

• Germany – Change in Industrial Production (07:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Change in Retail Sales (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

On November 6, the economic calendar contains six releases, at least two of which are particularly important. Economic data could have a significant impact on market sentiment on Friday, particularly during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Buying opportunities may arise today if the pair reverses near either of the two most recent swing points on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1270. Selling opportunities emerged after the pair closed below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target. These short positions can remain open.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the latest upward wave broke above the previous high. Thus, the bulls continue to control the market. The market has already priced in further FOMC monetary policy tightening in the near term, while the Bank of England's tightening cycle is only beginning. A renewed upward move in the pound is expected after the corrective pullback is complete.

The fundamental background on Thursday allowed bullish traders to continue their strong advance. However, it became clear that the hawkish outcome of the Bank of England meeting had already been priced in by the market. Consequently, the interest rate hike did not trigger another rally in the pound. Moreover, the pound is declining quite sharply on Friday, as the market is once again concerned about a possible resumption of hostilities in the Middle East and strong US labor market data. There are reasons to question whether the labor market and unemployment reports will actually be strong. However, the conflict in the Middle East could indeed resume in the near future, as Donald Trump can still make decisions about military operations without seeking approval from Congress. Congress will undoubtedly attempt to block a war with Iran by passing the relevant legislation. However, Trump has veto power, which he can use to block any decisions made by Democrats. In my view, the likelihood of renewed hostilities is increasing again. The congressional elections have taken place, and Trump had intended to resume attacks on Iran afterward.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and declined to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3405. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and could lead to a recovery toward the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level. Consolidation below 1.3405 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 1.3342. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 2,417, while the number of Short positions rose by 1,411. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 57,000 versus 136,000. The bears maintain a substantial advantage, which continues to widen over time. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but the situation has become less clear as the fundamental background has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound is still not considered convincing. However, developments in the near future will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had even properly begun. The war between the two countries could resume in full force as early as November.

US and UK Economic Calendar

• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

On November 6, the economic calendar contains four events, with Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate being the most significant. The impact of economic data on market sentiment could be substantial on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Selling opportunities emerged after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3469 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3404 and 1.3342. The first target has been reached, and the positions can remain open. Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from 1.3404, with a target of 1.3454–1.3469.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3674 to 1.3137 on the 4-hour chart.

Adding to the pressure were concerns that Democratic control of Congress will bring tougher oversight of the AI sector. That hit tech stocks and, through them, crypto — which was already suffering from the Binance hack and cooling retail interest. Even falling Treasury yields, which normally support speculative assets, did not help this time.

It's clear Bitcoin doesn't depend on tech profits, but investors sell correlated risk positions when cutting risk exposure, and leveraged liquidations amplify the move. Losers include miners and crypto-exchange equities; winners were those who locked in profits earlier.

Technically, the picture has worsened. Bitcoin had been trading above the cost basis of short-term holders (CryptoQuant) at $75,832, but the price has now fallen below that level. A month ago, almost all coins bought in the past 155 days were in profit; now the majority are underwater. That means any rally toward purchase prices will meet sellers trying to exit at breakeven.

Views on the outlook diverge. Some see the drop as part of a general risk reduction and argue yesterday's rally should not have occurred. Others say the fall was driven by factors unrelated to Bitcoin's price cycle and fundamentals and expect long-term growth to resume once the market calms. I believe that until the tech sector stabilizes, Bitcoin will remain under pressure, and the ETF inflows on Wednesday were too weak to change that. In the coming days, I expect trading below $76,000, with bounces running into the $77,700–78,000 area — the cost basis of recent buyers.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,900, which would open a direct path to $78,500 and then toward $79,900 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $75,300. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $72,800. The next downside target would be around $71,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,241 would open a direct path to $2,312. The farther target is the $2,383 high; overcoming that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,176. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,137. The next downside target would be around $2,084.

Chart notes:

• Red levels denote support and resistance points where price is expected to either stall or accelerate.
• Green shows the 50-day moving average.
• Blue shows the 100-day moving average.
• Light green shows the 200-day moving average.

Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.

This is clearly a continuation of Thursday's rout, when the S&P 500 plunged 4.4% — the worst performance since the tariff shock in April 2025. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 6.4% and lost $2.3 trillion of market cap. It's the worst week for semiconductors since April last year. Remarkably fast was the shift in logic. As recently as Wednesday, investors were betting that a Democratic wave would speed the end of the Iran war, and tech giants added nearly $1 trillion on hopes that tighter rules on AI spending would ease pressure on cash flows. Now the market sees regulation as a threat to the entire chain from chipmakers to data-centre builders.

The causal chain looks like this. New Democratic Texas governor Gina Hinojosa called for an immediate moratorium on data-centre projects, and winning candidates in other states have echoed that demand. As a result, about 40% of planned US data-centre capacity sits in states where new governors have promised to halt or pause construction. The biggest losers are Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Arm — whose orders depend on build-out pace — and Korean memory manufacturers.

Winners so far are bonds and the dollar. China's 10-year yield fell to an intraday record low on safe-haven demand and excess liquidity; US Treasuries held Thursday's gains, and the dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies.

Oil adds contradictions. Brent rose 1.7% to $99.93/bbl after a 3.9% jump in the previous session. For context: on Wednesday it closed at $94.62, on Thursday morning it was about $93.6, last Monday it closed at $104.77, and at the end of October it had climbed toward $118. Hopes for a quick end to the Iran war after Republican setbacks were overwhelmed by panic around AI, and commodities are retracing some of the fall.

The Fed's main focus remains the US nonfarm payrolls. Consensus suggests that the US economy could have added 65,000 jobs (versus 29,000 in September), with an unemployment rate at near 4.18% versus an expected 4.2%. I believe the market is now reacting to political headlines faster than to measured estimates of real losses. But the risk to the chain is real: 40% of new projects depend on the decisions of incoming governors. All this implies continued volatility in markets and the tech sector in the coming sessions, with only partial rebounds, while the dollar and government bonds are likely to remain beneficiaries.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

Buyers' main task today is to overcome immediate resistance at 7,355. That would confirm upside and open the way to a push toward 7,381. Equally important for bulls is holding control above 7,404 to strengthen their positions. On a downside move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must step in around 7,328. A breach would quickly drive the instrument back to 7,300 and open the path to 7,279.

Stock?index dynamics

No sector of the S&P 500 closed in the green. The VIX volatility index recorded its sharpest spike since April 2025; fear now dominates the US stock market amid severe shocks to the AI industry. Fears that Democrats will put roadblocks in front of tech companies are compounded by concerns that colossal AI investments are not paying off.

Formally, the trigger for the S&P 500 sell-off was disappointing corporate results from Qualcomm, a long-time chip supplier for Apple. In reality, investors' nerves were wound so tight that one relatively small company became the butterfly that set off a storm. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 12% — the second-worst daily drop in its history. NVIDIA's largest decline since January 2025 wiped out all the issuer's gains for the year.

S&P 500 dynamics and equal-weight ETF performance

A day earlier, there had been rotation in the stock market: divided government was seen as a boon for the economy, with investors selling tech and buying other sectors. On Thursday, everything changed. It became clear that restrictions on building and commissioning data centres will hurt not only chipmakers. They will negatively affect construction and industrial firms, banks that financed projects, and the tech giants that use the chips.

Not only markets but the real economy will suffer. It's no surprise that the Nasdaq Composite has entered a correction — its 11th in the past decade — and has entered a bear market five times over that period. A bear market here means a 20% decline from record highs.

What's next? Nobody wants to catch falling daggers while the Middle East conflict continues and the Fed keeps tightening policy. On the other hand, a statement by the new Texas governor that commissioning of data centres in 2027–2028 is not off the table suggests the underlying case may still hold. Is fear really that overblown?

Technically, a breakout strategy worked on the S&P 500 daily chart. A break below the trading range of 7,650–7,720 allowed traders to enter short positions. As long as the broad index remains below the pivot resistance at 7,460, it makes sense to keep the focus on selling.

The trigger was Thursday's acceleration of chipmakers' sell-off on worries about how a Democratic Congress will affect the AI sector. Some investors began selling gold to reduce risk and free up liquidity.

The contrast with earlier in the week is stark. On Wednesday morning, spot was around $3,942, then the metal jumped more than 3% on the day — the strongest daily gain since August — and on Thursday in Asia, the price reached roughly $4,140. The bet was simple: new politicians will fight inflation, much driven by the Iran conflict, and divided government will constrain Trump's fiscal agenda — meaning lower spending and borrowing. But that logic has two opposing implications. If inflation is under control, the Fed gains more room and rate pressure eases, which supports a non-yielding metal. At the same time, tighter fiscal expansion is theoretically less supportive for gold, which some investors buy as protection against unchecked government spending and deficits.

Then, the dollar kicked in. It strengthened on Thursday, enough to check gold since the metal is dollar-priced. On Friday, the pressure intensified: the dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies, whereas on Wednesday it was the weakest in the group. That benefits dollar holders and cash/bond investors, while leveraged gold holders are forced to cut positions to meet margin calls.

The key question is why the stock sell-off did not translate into the usual safe-haven bid for gold. The answer lies in rates. The market still prices a Fed hike in December, and another one in March, and high energy prices support inflation expectations. I think the pattern of the past two weeks is repeating: on October 22–23 gold was sold to raise liquidity; on October 30 it fell below $4,000 together with AI stocks, and now it is giving up gains again. The metal is acting as a source of cash to cover losses, not as a haven.

The next twist in the road depends on the US nonfarm payrolls. Consensus expects payrolls to rise by 65,000 after 29,000 in September. A weak print would be bearish for the dollar and Fed-hike expectations, which would support gold.

Technical view: buyers need to reclaim immediate resistance at $4,060. That would target $4,124, above which further gains will be difficult. The farther target is $4,192. On the downside, bears will try to take control of $4,000. A decisive break below that range would hit bulls hard and push gold toward $3,954, with a further extension to $3,906.

The test of the 158.22 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the US dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 157.94.

Japan reported encouraging wage data, but this may not be enough to support the yen. Nominal wages increased by 4.6% year over year in September, compared with analysts' expectations of 3.8%, while the previous month's growth stood at 3.9%. This result was significantly better than expected and brought the indicator back to July levels, when growth reached 4.7%. These figures are important for the Bank of Japan, as sustained income growth is expected to fuel inflation in the services sector, giving the central bank grounds to continue raising its interest rate, which currently stands at 1.25%. It is worth recalling that the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged on October 30 following an 8-1 vote, while Hajime Takata called for an immediate rate hike. More than 80% of economists expect a rate increase at the December 17–18 meeting, and today's wage figures further strengthen this scenario.

However, the external environment remains challenging for the yen. Yesterday, US economic data once again supported the dollar. Weekly jobless claims came in at 189,000, compared with the forecast of 197,000. Labor productivity increased by 3.6% in the third quarter, against expectations of 2.8%, while hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack about the need for restrictive monetary policy further boosted demand for the US currency. The only concerning signal for the dollar was a 0.7% decline in unit labor costs, but the market barely reacted. Today's main test will be the US employment report, with job growth forecast at 65,000 compared with 29,000 in September. Later in the evening, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is also scheduled to speak.

In my view, the overall picture is mixed. Strong Japanese wage growth and expectations of a December rate hike provide solid support for the yen. However, as long as US economic data continue to exceed forecasts and the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, the yen will struggle to appreciate. If the employment report falls short of expectations, the yen will have an opportunity to recover some of its losses.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, USD/JPY will be considered for buying when the price reaches the entry level around 158.00 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 158.33 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.33, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from that level. It is preferable to resume buying the pair during corrective pullbacks and significant declines in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 157.83 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.00 and 158.33 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, USD/JPY will be considered for selling only after the price breaks below the 157.83 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 157.44, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Sellers could return at any moment; all it would take is any indication from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 158.00 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.83 and 157.44 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Yesterday, the Bank of England did everything the market expected and even a little more. The interest rate was raised to 4.00%, with the voting results showing a unanimous 9-0-0 decision. This was the first unanimous decision in more than three years. Nevertheless, the pound remained weaker than the US dollar. The reason is that the rate hike had already been priced in, while the US currency received strong support. Initial jobless claims in the United States came in at 189,000, below the forecast of 197,000, while labor productivity increased by 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with expectations of 2.8%. These figures were accompanied by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack about the need for restrictive monetary policy.

Today, the pound remains in the shadow of the US dollar. During the first half of the day, the only scheduled releases are the Lloyds house price index, which is unlikely to change much based on the forecast, and a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. No new signals are expected from him, as his hawkish stance is already well known to the market. Yesterday's hawkish tone from Bailey also showed that even confident remarks from the central bank governor are currently insufficient to generate interest in the pound. In my view, under these circumstances, UK news simply cannot outweigh the influence of US developments.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for buying when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3431 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.3446 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3446, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from that level. The pound can only be expected to rise today following very strong UK economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.3420 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3431 and 1.3446 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for selling after the price breaks below the 1.3420 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3403, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Negative news will bring renewed pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.3431 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3420 and 1.3403 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1228 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The sudden return of demand for the US dollar pushed the euro lower. Just the day before, the single currency had been holding up thanks to the weakness of the US dollar, but strong US labor market data and remarks by Beth Hammack of the Federal Reserve changed the outlook. The FOMC member emphasized that inflation has remained above the target for almost six years and that monetary policy will need to become restrictive. She also stated that she prefers to take smaller steps more frequently. This is the same message she delivered in October, when the euro hit new monthly lows following her remarks. It confirms that the Fed has no intention of stopping, while a rate hike in December remains the baseline scenario.

Today, euro buyers will find it difficult to count on support from Europe. German industrial production and eurozone retail sales figures will be released in the first half of the day, and forecasts for both indicators are disappointing. For comparison, German industrial production jumped by 2.0% in August, whereas a 0.2% decline is now expected. Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.1% month over month in August after falling by 0.6% in July, while the market is now expecting another 0.1% decline. Annual retail sales growth is also expected to slow to 0.6% from 0.8%. If the data disappoint, pressure on the euro will only intensify.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1202 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1230. At 1.1230, the position will be closed, and the euro will also be sold in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. The euro can only be expected to rise today if the economic data are positive. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.1182 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1202 and 1.1230 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: The euro will be considered for selling after the price reaches the 1.1182 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1154, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from that level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data are weak. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.1202 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1182 and 1.1154 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when using large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The decision itself was more hawkish than expected. The interest rate was raised to 4.00%, with all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting in favor. The market had expected seven votes in favor, while only three members had supported a rate hike in September. The number of votes in favor increased from three to nine in less than two months, representing a significant shift within the committee. However, the pound did not appreciate in response to this news. The rate hike had been anticipated, while the dollar received support from strong US economic data at the same time.

The most important comments came from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He indicated that the tightening cycle might not be over and that another rate hike was more likely than not. However, there is one condition: this would only be possible if energy prices returned to their previous levels.

This is where the main problem for the pound lies. Oil prices are moving in the opposite direction. Brent crude has fallen to approximately $93.60 after reaching nearly $118 at the end of October. Over the past few days, its price has declined by almost $10 as the market anticipates an imminent end to the war with Iran. High oil prices were precisely what kept inflation elevated and gave the Bank of England grounds to consider further rate increases.

The market understands this and currently assigns a 50% probability to another rate hike in December. This explains why Bailey's hawkish comments failed to support the pound.

An interesting situation has emerged: the pound currently depends less on the Bank of England and more on oil prices. As long as oil continues to decline, the argument in favor of another rate hike becomes weaker with each trading session. Bailey himself acknowledged that much of the inflation surge has already been priced in. This means that lower oil prices may provide less relief than initially expected. However, the currency market focuses less on the precise figures and more on the overall direction, which currently remains unfavorable for the pound.

No support from UK economic data should be expected today. The Lloyds House Price Index will be released, with growth expected to be almost zero and some estimates even pointing to a decline. This would indicate a sluggish housing market under pressure from high borrowing costs.

Huw Pill will then deliver a speech. Back in July, he was among the three policymakers who voted for immediate monetary tightening, alongside Megan Greene and Catherine Mann. His hawkish stance has been well established and is already reflected in market prices, so no new market impetus is expected from his comments.

Therefore, the US labor market report remains the main market focus. This report will be discussed in detail in the forecast for the second half of the day.

Momentum

The price is currently trading within a range, with 10 points separating it from the upward breakout level of 1.3434 and 16 points from the downward breakout level of 1.3408.

The 1.3434 level is important for an upward move. If the pound consolidates firmly above it, the next targets will be 1.3460 and then 1.3481. Such a move is possible if the US economic report is weaker than expected or oil prices rise sharply. However, as oil prices continue to decline, this scenario appears less likely.

For a downward move, attention is focused on 1.3408. A downward breakout would open the way toward 1.3379 and 1.3355. This is considered the primary scenario. The dollar is supported by US economic data and the Federal Reserve, while the argument in favor of another Bank of England rate hike is becoming weaker.

Mean Reversion

The upper reference level is 1.3445, while the lower level is 1.3409. The upper level is 11 points above the breakout level of 1.3434, meaning that price could reach it quickly following an upward breakout. If the price touches 1.3445 and then moves back down, this would indicate a reversal rather than a continuation of the upward movement.

The lower level of 1.3409 is only 1 point above 1.3408. Because these levels are so close, it is impossible to distinguish a genuine breakout from a false breakout based on the first test alone. Therefore, it is better to avoid trading the initial reaction to the US labor market report and observe subsequent price action.

The reason is that US economic data exceeded expectations, while European data disappointed. Initial jobless claims, which measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, came in at 189,000 versus the forecast of 197,000. The lower this figure, the stronger the labor market. Labor productivity, which measures how much output workers produce per hour, accelerated to 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with the forecast of 2.8%.

The situation in Europe was the opposite. German industrial orders increased by 4.4%, below the expected 4.8%, while industrial production in France declined by 0.5%, despite analysts forecasting growth. The market favored the dollar.

Beth Hammack of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, added to market confidence in the dollar. She stated that monetary policy would need to become restrictive to bring inflation back to 2% and that she would prefer more frequent but smaller interest rate adjustments. This is not new information. Similar comments on October 12 had already pushed the euro to monthly lows, while Hammack voted in favor of an interest rate increase on October 28. Her stance has not changed, but the market reaction is telling. Investors are once again seriously pricing in a December Fed rate hike, and these expectations are supporting the dollar.

The euro has little to counter this pressure. The European economy is slowing, while inflation remains high, at around 4.0%. The ECB continues to signal that the final rate increase will take place in December, bringing the rate to 2.75%, but it has provided no new hawkish signals. Such signals could have helped offset the dollar's strength.

Today, the euro faces another round of European economic data, which offers little reason for buyers to be optimistic. German industrial production for September is forecast to decline by 0.2% following a strong August, when it increased by 2.0%. This expected pullback will nevertheless highlight the weakness of the industrial sector. Retail sales in the eurozone are also expected to decline slightly, while their annual growth rate is forecast to slow. This indicates weaker consumer spending, as more money is being spent on expensive energy.

Momentum

The price is currently below both key levels. The breakout level for an upward move is 1.1211, just 14 points above the current price, while the breakout level for a downward move is 1.1177, 20 points below.

The 1.1211 level is important for an upward move. If the euro consolidates firmly above it, the next targets will be 1.1244 and then 1.1272. Such a move is possible if the US economic report disappoints, but there is insufficient reason to anticipate it before the data are released.

For a downward move, attention is focused on 1.1177. A downward breakout would open the way toward 1.1138 and 1.1108. This is considered the primary scenario. European economic data remain weak, the Federal Reserve is supporting the dollar, and the euro has no new catalyst for appreciation.

Mean Reversion

The upper reference level is 1.1218, while the lower level is 1.1180. The upper level is just 7 points above the breakout level of 1.1211, meaning that price could reach it quickly following an upward breakout. If the price touches 1.1218 and then moves back down, this would indicate a reversal rather than a continuation of the upward movement.

The lower level of 1.1180 is only 3 points above 1.1177. Because these levels are so close, it is impossible to distinguish a genuine breakout from a false breakout based on the first test alone. Such sharp price movements are common following labor market reports. Therefore, it is better to wait for the initial market reaction to subside and observe subsequent price action.

On the first day after the election, investors thought a divided government might be good for the economy. By day two, they changed their minds. Democratic control of Congress was read as a business risk, prompting a rush into the greenback and driving EUR/USD off the upper edge of its 1.115–1.124 trading band.

Nasdaq 100 and Treasury yield dynamics

The equity sell-off is a clear negative for EUR/USD because it signals a fresh bout of liquidity stress. Investors are selling assets to raise cash and hedge political risk, and are buying US Treasuries aggressively. Falling yields conflict with the apparent strength of the US economy, leaving the market's next move unclear.

What supports the dollar is a Citigroup economic surprise index running hotter on strong employment prints, jobless claim data, and productivity gains hitting one-year highs. Coupled with hawkish Fed rhetoric, including vocal support for high interest rates from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, the evidence suggests the dollar's policy advantages remain intact.

Economic surprise index and Treasury yields

Context matters. The US economy looks stronger than others, and slowing it will take time and likely require Democrats to successfully curb AI investment — a doubtful prospect given the president's veto power.

A politically weakened Donald Trump historically correlated with a more hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar. The dollar had occasionally softened on fears around Trump's foreign policy agenda (tariffs, Greenland talk), but later recovered. The Republicans' midterm losses free Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to take a tougher stance on inflation.

Transatlantic divergence is expected to persist. Traders are pricing in two Fed rate hikes by mid-next year and a roughly 50% chance of a third move. Standard Chartered calls the dollar the strongest G10 currency and expects the US to outperform energy-dependent Europe, while acknowledging the political risks from Washington.

Thus, dollar support comes from US resilience and expected Fed tightening. Any dollar weakness driven by politics will likely be temporary.

Technically, the daily chart shows that EUR/USD is forming an expanding wedge pattern. A rebound off fair value near 1.1190 would be a buying opportunity, while a break below 1.1165 would be a trigger to sell.

The Elliott Wave structure of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has become more complex. On the higher timeframe (bottom chart), the downward trend segment has taken the form of a five-wave A-B-C-D-E structure, which could be completed at any time, as it appears sufficiently developed. All the waves within this segment are approximately equal in size, which suggests that the structure is corrective. If this assumption is correct, the completion of this structure will be followed by the development of a new upward impulse segment, with targets well above the 20th level.

On the lower timeframe (top chart), an impulsive wave structure continues to develop, which may belong to wave E of the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is approaching its end, regardless of how strong its upward movement becomes. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or nearing completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts.

The news background and the sharp shift in market sentiment have triggered a significant appreciation of the US currency. However, relatively few new reasons remain for further dollar strength.

The Euro Is Once Again Depending on Dollar Weakness

The EUR/USD exchange rate declined by 10 points on Thursday, and Friday began with a further decline of 20 points. Overall, the European currency remains in low demand and continues to struggle against the dollar. This week, conditions appeared particularly favorable for the euro, yet it failed to rise even above the peak of wave 4. Toward the end of the week, the euro is declining again, despite the news background and the Elliott Wave structure.

Overnight, Donald Trump stated that he might have to destroy the remaining part of Iran. As can be seen, the US president is paying no attention to the Democrats' demands to end the war and is showing no intention of reaching an agreement with Congress. As previously noted, Trump could well order new strikes against Iran, even without the approval of a fully Democratic Congress.

The only unclear point is what Trump is waiting for. Threats against Iran have been made for several consecutive months. Previously, Trump was concerned about further escalation because oil and fuel prices could rise even more sharply. There is now little reason for such concern: the elections are over, so what comes next? In any case, the market appears to place more confidence in Trump than in the Democrats. At least, this is the conclusion that can be drawn from the latest appreciation of the US dollar.

Important US labor market and unemployment reports will be released today. However, it is worth considering in advance what results could realistically mean for the market. If the labor market once again produces disappointing figures, should a dollar decline of more than 20–30 points be expected? Probably not. The market has already had sufficient reasons to sell the dollar this week. Therefore, regardless of how weak the US reports turn out to be, a substantial dollar decline is not expected.

At the same time, if the reports exceed expectations, the dollar is likely to continue appreciating. A decline in EUR/USD below the 1.11 level would make adjustments to the Elliott Wave structure necessary.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the instrument is still within the global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend structure. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. At present, conditions appear favorable not only for buying the European currency but also for anticipating the development of a full-fledged upward trend segment.

According to the higher timeframe, an advance of at least to the 1.17–1.18 levels is expected. The unsuccessful attempt to break above the 1.1126 level, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (bottom chart, higher timeframe), also indicates that the market may be preparing for an upward move.

The higher timeframe shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, but it may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment should begin to develop.

The Main Principles of the Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to changes.

2. If there is uncertainty about current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.

3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.

4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Bitcoin's latest three-month rally was essentially a move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to its upper boundary on the daily timeframe. This movement followed the formation of a deviation below the channel's lower boundary and was accompanied by a deviation above its upper boundary. The deviation above the upper boundary was substantial, but if it was indeed a deviation, Bitcoin is now heading toward the $70,800 level. "Digital gold" has returned to the sideways channel, making a move toward its 50% level a logical and technically consistent development.

As already mentioned, immediately after the US Congressional elections, which the Democrats won, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market posted solid gains. This once again contradicts the fundamental background, as the Democrats are likely to attempt to block Trump's latest efforts to pass the Clarity Act. Moreover, the Democrats support reducing government spending and may begin an open political confrontation with Donald Trump in Congress.

As a result, US economic growth could slow in the coming years. Under such conditions, investors tend to favor safe-haven assets. The US stock market has declined for several consecutive days, which also does little to improve sentiment among cryptocurrency traders. In our view, the fundamental background for Bitcoin deteriorated further this week. A long list of factors that clearly do not support Bitcoin's appreciation had already been identified. This week, that list became even longer. In addition, spot demand remains weak, while capital outflows from ETF products have been more frequent than inflows throughout 2026.

Overall BTC/USD Outlook on the 1-Day Timeframe

On the daily timeframe, the bearish trend structure has been broken. Therefore, "digital gold" has most likely officially entered a new bullish trend formation phase. Price reached the bearish FVG from the previous trend and reacted to this pattern, triggering the expected correction. However, the move beyond the 60,000–82,500 sideways channels in September may have been a deviation. Combined with the reactions to two bearish FVGs, this could trigger a decline toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Bitcoin also retraced to the nearest bearish FVG and showed a clear reaction, forming a new sell signal.

Overall BTC/USD Outlook on the 4-Hour Timeframe

The bearish trend structure continues to develop on the 4-hour timeframe. The CHOCH level is currently at $82,000. All the necessary bearish reversal signals have appeared on the daily timeframe, allowing traders to open short positions.

Bitcoin's targets are currently best determined using the sideways channel on the daily chart, which remains relevant in the current market structure. The trend structure is bearish on the 4-hour timeframe, while Bitcoin has reacted to another bearish pattern on the daily timeframe. The next decline followed shortly afterward.

BTC/USD Trading Recommendations

Bitcoin attempted to establish a new uptrend, but the fundamental background, spot demand, and latest news remain too weak to support its continuation. In the near term, Bitcoin may continue to decline on the daily timeframe, as price has reacted to two bearish FVGs and formed a bearish Order Block.

The move beyond the sideways channel on the daily chart is currently interpreted as a deviation. Thus, Bitcoin has generated a reversal signal and is heading toward the $70,800 level. The bearish trend is not considered complete. Short positions are currently more relevant than long positions.

Among the current patterns, the bearish FVG on the daily chart deserves particular attention, as a new sell signal formed near this area today. A new bearish FVG has also formed on the 4-hour timeframe. A reaction to this area could provide traders with an opportunity to open new short positions.

Explanations for the Charts:

• CHOCH (Change of Character) – A break in the existing trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop-loss orders and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG (Fair Value Gap) – An area of price inefficiency. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a lack of participation from one side of the market. Subsequently, price tends to return to these areas and react to them in the direction of the prevailing trend.
• IFVG (Inversion Fair Value Gap) – An inverted area of price inefficiency. When price returns to such an area, it does not react to it but instead breaks through it with strong momentum and then retests it from the opposite side.
• OB (Order Block) – A candle associated with market-maker activity, where liquidity is collected to establish a position in the opposite direction.

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded lower on Thursday, although a further rise in the British pound would have seemed more logical. Yesterday, the Bank of England made the expected decision to begin tightening monetary policy as part of its ongoing efforts to combat high inflation. However, the market had already anticipated this move and priced it in beforehand. Overall, the pound has performed relatively well in recent weeks.

It should also be recalled that the pound's appreciation was driven not only by expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The sideways channels on the daily and weekly timeframes remain relevant. After price has reached their lower boundaries, a move toward their upper boundaries would be a logical development. Therefore, following the correction, a resumption of the pound's upward movement is expected, regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic background.

It should also be noted that the long-term uptrend remains intact. Returning to yesterday's Bank of England meeting, it is worth adding that the decision to raise the key interest rate was unanimous, although traders had expected two members of the Monetary Policy Committee to vote against tightening. Thus, the Bank of England's stance can be considered more hawkish than anticipated.

Today, GBP/USD movements will depend entirely on the US unemployment data and the Nonfarm Payrolls report.

From a technical perspective, the British pound continues to develop an uptrend, as indicated by the trendline. On the higher timeframes, price continues to move from the lower boundaries of the sideways channels toward their upper boundaries. From a technical standpoint, the pound's movement remains consistent with the overall market structure, and a minor correction will not alter this outlook.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals were generated on Thursday, and their implications may extend into today's session. First, the price consolidated below the 1.3465–1.3480 level and then rebounded from it. The British pound did not decline yesterday, but such a move could occur today, particularly if the US labor market and unemployment reports show stronger-than-forecast results.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have maintained a dominant net short position for several consecutive months. The net position remains negative despite the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Given developments in the Middle East, it is hardly surprising that demand for the US dollar remains relatively high in 2026. The war between the United States and Iran has formally been put on hold, but hostilities could resume in the near future. The Federal Reserve's changed monetary policy stance is also supporting the dollar, while the upward trendline has been broken. However, this break occurred within a sideways market, so the uptrend is not considered complete.

In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, as clearly illustrated on the weekly timeframe. The trade war is likely to continue in one form or another for a considerable period, while Trump's policies are aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact.

According to the latest COT report (dated October 27), the "Non-commercial" group opened 2,400 buy positions and 1,400 sell positions. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,000 over the week.

GBP/USD Analysis: 1-Hour Chart

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to develop a logical and technically consistent uptrend. On the daily and weekly timeframes, price has swept liquidity below recent lows while remaining within the sideways channels. Therefore, further appreciation of the British currency can be expected, at least toward 1.3650, which represents the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. No fundamental or macroeconomic catalysts are required for the pound to appreciate, as GBP/USD remains within the sideways channels.

For November 6, the following key levels are identified: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, and 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3358) and Kijun-sen (1.3440) lines may also generate trading signals. It is recommended that the Stop Loss be moved to breakeven once the price has moved 20 points in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals.

No significant economic events or publications are scheduled in the UK today, while the US is set to release several important macroeconomic reports. Naturally, the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate will be particularly important, as these indicators could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, even without considering this factor, the market reaction to these releases could be substantial.

Summary of the Analysis

Traders may consider the 1.3369–1.3382 level as a target for short positions, as two sell signals were generated in the 1.3465–1.3480 level yesterday. Consolidation above the 1.3465–1.3480 level would make 1.3588 a potential target for long positions.

Explanations for the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels – thick red lines around which price movements may end. These levels are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour chart. These are strong technical levels.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines from which price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position held by each trader category.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again failed to break above the 1.1261–1.1274 level and, consequently, exit the sideways channel and begin a logical and technically justified upward trend. As can be seen, the euro still cannot manage even a corrective recovery. After declining by 600 points, the price has been trading sideways for a month. Thus, the euro remains at the bottom of the market and has little chance of appreciating until traders change their attitude toward the currency. It is worth recalling that the pound has been trading much more consistently than the euro in recent weeks. The ECB is also raising interest rates, just like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The point is that the euro's current market position clearly does not reflect the news background of the past several months. Conditions in Europe are not entirely favorable, but positive developments are also emerging. The situation in the United States, however, is currently highly unstable and unpredictable. Therefore, the outlook remains unfavorable for further US dollar appreciation. Nevertheless, the price remains within the sideways channel. Following the rebound from its upper boundary, a decline toward the lower boundary would be a logical scenario. There were no significant fundamental or macroeconomic events in the European Union or the United States yesterday.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend may have ended, as the second descending trendline has now been broken. However, the price remains within the 1.1115–1.1261 sideways channel, so the euro's outlook remains uncertain. A rebound from the channel's upper boundary could trigger another decline in the euro, regardless of the news background.

One sell signal was formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the price rebounded from the 1.1261–1.1274 level, allowing traders to open short positions. By the end of the day, the pair had declined by 25–30 points.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated October 27. The weekly timeframe chart clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains bearish and declined significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical developments. Traders have been reducing their exposure to the euro in favor of the US dollar over the past eight months. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar temporarily served as a safe-haven currency.

However, there are still no fundamental factors supporting further US dollar appreciation. The war in the Middle East temporarily made the dollar exceptionally attractive, while the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance provided another boost to the US currency this year. Over the long term, the euro could decline as far as the 1.08 level (the trendline), but the upward trend would still remain valid. Nevertheless, in recent months, the market has been taking only positive factors for the dollar into account while ignoring all others.

The positioning of the red and blue indicator lines points to bearish dominance. During the latest reporting week, the number of long contracts held by the Non-commercial group increased by 4,200, while the number of short positions increased by 13,600. Consequently, the net position declined by another 9,400 over the week.

EUR/USD Analysis – 1H Chart

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD has the potential to develop an upward trend, but the pair remains within a sideways channel for now. A look at the daily and weekly timeframes suggests that the potential for a strong and prolonged trend remains considerable. However, the euro can only appreciate if market participants are willing to buy it. Over the past two months, there has been little interest in buying European currency. As long as the price remains within the sideways channel, an upward trend cannot be confirmed.

For November 6, the following trading levels are identified: 1.1006, 1.1115, 1.1154–1.1165, 1.1261–1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, and 1.1657–1.1665. The Senkou Span B (1.1183) and Kijun-sen (1.1184) lines are also relevant. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Traders should also remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price has moved 15 points in the favorable direction. This helps protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Friday, the European Union will publish a relatively minor retail sales report, while the United States will release the much more important labor market and unemployment reports. Average earnings data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also be published. Therefore, significant market volatility is likely during the second half of the day.

Summary of the Analysis:

Traders may consider short positions with a target near 1.1115, as the price has once again failed to break above the 1.1261–1.1274 level, while the Ichimoku indicator lines provide weak signals under current sideways market conditions. If the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen or Senkou Span B line, a target of 1.1261–1.1274 may be considered for long positions.

Explanations for the Charts:

Support and resistance levels are represented by thick red lines. Price movements may end near these levels, but they do not serve as sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are considered strong technical levels.

Extremum levels are represented by thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They serve as sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position held by each category of traders.

The British pound is trading around 1.3447 within a small secondary uptrend channel and is pulling back after encountering strong resistance near the upper band of the main channel and around the 5/8 Murray level.

If the British pound decisively breaks below the secondary uptrend channel in the coming hours and consolidates below the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3450, this will be considered a signal to open short positions. We expect GBP/USD to reach the Murray 4/8 line around 1.3427 and, ultimately, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) around 1.3366.

Conversely, if the British pound rebounds above the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) and remains within the uptrend channel, this will be considered an opportunity to buy above 1.3450 with targets at 1.3488; ultimately, we expect GBP/USD to reach the upper band of the channel at 1.3528.

Since US government employment data is released on the first Friday of each month, the British pound could come under strong downward pressure if the NFPs are negative; hence, GBP/USD could plunge to 1.3366.

We should keep an eye on the 1.3427 area. A technical bounce above this level could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying in the coming days, whereas a drop below the 4/8 Murray line could change the outlook for the British pound—we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around 1. 3360, and finally, we expect GBP/USD to fall to the lower band of the uptrend channel around 1.3300.

The NASDAQ 100 Industrial Index, which comprises the 100 largest US companies by market capitalization, is trading around 26,953 points.

The NQ 100 is recovering after hitting a low of 26,273 points and has returned above the Murray 2/8 line, within the downtrend channel that has been forming since October 22.

Companies such as SanDisk Corporation and Astera Labs fell 16% and 17%, respectively, and other companies reporting negative results contributed to the sharp decline in the NASDAQ.

The H4 chart shows the losses recorded during the trading session on Thursday, November 5. If the NQ consolidates above the Murray 2/8 level, around 26,562, in the coming hours, this could be considered a buy signal with targets at the Murray 3/8 level, around 27,343. Ultimately, we expect the index to reach the Murray 4/8 level, around 28,125.

If the NASDAQ pulls back toward the 2/8 Murray level in the coming hours, it will be a buying opportunity, with a target of 28,125 (4/8). Conversely, this zone could also be considered an opportunity to open short positions, anticipating that the index will return to the 2/8 Murray level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading around 51,244 points after posting a sharp decline upon encountering significant resistance around the 5/8 Murray level.

The Dow Jones 30 has fallen below 53,900 points to 51,244 points—a drop of more than 3% over the past 12 hours— so we believe it could continue to fall in the coming hours until it reaches the 1/8 Murray level, around 50,781 points, and could even touch the psychological level of 50,000.

Shares of one of the 30 most liquid companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average—NVIDIA Corporation—fell more than 8%, and we also observed that Cisco Systems shares dropped 6%. These stocks, along with others, were the main drivers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline, so it is likely to continue falling, as US employment data will be released tomorrow.

From a technical perspective, if the Dow rebounds toward the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at 52,199, or toward the 3/8 Murray level, around 52,343, this will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions, and we could expect it to target 50,781 and 50,000 points in the coming days.

On the other hand, if the price consolidates above 50,781—around the 1/8 Murray level—in the coming hours, it could be considered a buying opportunity, with targets at 52,199 and 52,343—around the 3/8 Murray level.

The Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels, and from a technical standpoint, we could plan to enter long poisitons in a support zone.

The GBP/USD currency pair also remained largely unchanged throughout most of Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the euro and the pound have been trading very differently in recent weeks. While the British currency has been rising for several consecutive weeks, in line with broader market conditions, the euro has been trading sideways for a month. Therefore, the lack of gains in the euro is not surprising, whereas the pound had reasons to appreciate during Thursday's trading session.

Essentially, the Bank of England made exactly the decision the market had expected. Several weeks ago, it became clear that the British regulator would have to begin tightening monetary policy, as inflation in the United Kingdom was expected to reach 4% by the end of the year. Consequently, traders anticipated a hawkish decision from the Bank of England, and that expectation was confirmed. However, the outcome of the Bank of England's meeting was even more hawkish than anticipated. Most analysts expected seven of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members to vote in favor of raising interest rates. In reality, the entire committee unanimously supported the increase. This means that the market may have already priced in the rate hike in advance, but it could not have anticipated such a hawkish stance from the regulator.

What does a more hawkish stance from the regulator indicate? It suggests that interest rates could be raised again at the final meeting in December. It also indicates that the Bank of England may implement at least three or four additional monetary tightening measures. If the Monetary Policy Committee's voting results had been less decisive, it would have been reasonable to conclude that its members were uncertain about the need to raise interest rates as soon as possible. However, the voting results demonstrated that there was no such uncertainty.

Therefore, the British currency may continue to appreciate against the US dollar. First, the price has not yet reached the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily timeframe. Second, it has also not reached the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the weekly timeframe. Third, the global upward trend that began in 2022 remains intact and has not been invalidated. Fourth, the Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rate at least as many times as the Federal Reserve. Fifth, geopolitical developments are unlikely to trigger another major wave of market panic, meaning that the US dollar is unlikely to receive further support from this factor.

The outlook remains that the market has already priced in the factors supporting the US dollar several times over. Essentially, geopolitical developments were the main reason behind the dollar's appreciation in 2026, while the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening was a consequence of those geopolitical factors. Moreover, the dollar should not have benefited significantly from tighter US monetary policy because the Bank of England is also raising its key interest rate. The British regulator may have started tightening monetary policy a month and a half later, but the market began pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes back in the summer. Despite this considerable advantage, the dollar has failed to achieve substantial gains in 2026. A look at the weekly timeframe reveals a prolonged sideways movement that has already lasted 16 months.

The average volatility of GBP/USD over the last five trading days stands at 63 points. This is considered an average level for the pound/dollar pair. On Friday, November 6, the pair is therefore expected to trade within a range bounded by 1.3418 and 1.3544. The higher linear regression channel has turned downward again. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory twice and also formed a bullish divergence, signaling the end of the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3428

S2 – 1.3367

S3 – 1.3306

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3489

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to follow an upward trend that may form part of the broader trend that began in 2022. Donald Trump's policies are likely to continue putting pressure on the US economy, so substantial long-term gains in the US dollar are not expected. So far, 2026 has been relatively favorable for the dollar due to geopolitical developments and inflation, which prompted capital outflows from riskier assets and forced the Federal Reserve to resume monetary tightening. However, the weekly timeframe still shows a sideways range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within the four-year upward trend. This suggests that the British currency could continue appreciating over the medium term.

Long positions with targets at 1.3544 and 1.3550 may be considered if the price remains above the moving average. If the price moves below the moving average, short positions may be considered with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306.

Explanations for the Charts:

Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the current trend is strong.

The moving average (settings: 20.0, smoothed) identifies the short-term trend and indicates the preferred trading direction.

Murray levels serve as targets for price movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel within which the currency pair is expected to trade over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility readings.

The CCI indicator: entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.