The September 2026 data, updated on 12 October 2026, indicate that price growth has accelerated rather than eased, suggesting that cost pressures remain elevated across the basket of goods and services measured by the CPI. The shift from 15.70% to 17.20% year-over-year underscores a worsening inflation backdrop that may influence future policy considerations and household purchasing power in Rwanda.

Imports grew at a slightly faster pace, rising 21.32% to EUR 4,710.9 million. The increase was driven primarily by purchases from non-EU countries, which jumped 36.81%, alongside an 8.97% rise in imports from EU partners. Over the first eight months of 2026, Bulgaria’s cumulative trade deficit expanded to EUR 8,073.7 million, compared with EUR 5,920.4 million in the same period a year earlier.

At the stock level, Volkswagen advanced 1.6% ahead of an investor update and the release of its third-quarter sales figures, while Nordex reported a sharp year-on-year increase in orders. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs cut its rating on Aroundtown to “Sell” from “Neutral,” and Nagarro is set to exit the small-cap index after India’s Persistent Systems acquired roughly 94% of its shares.

Market participants are also positioning for the onset of earnings season, with ASML and LVMH among the key names due to report quarterly results this week. Banks led the advance, utilities also moved higher, while energy stocks lagged under pressure from the softer oil price.

Among financials, HSBC rose 2.1%, Banco Santander gained 1.8%, BBVA added 1.6% and BNP Paribas climbed 1.0%. Automakers were another bright spot, with Renault and Stellantis up 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In the industrial space, Nordex jumped 3.8% after reporting a 30% year-on-year increase in project intake in the third quarter.

By contrast, sales growth weakened for automotive fuel (6.9% vs 8.1%), cultural and recreational goods (8.9% vs 9.5%), other goods in specialized stores (19.8% vs 20.2%), and sales via stalls and markets (9.7% vs 17.4%). In addition, sales of other household equipment fell by 2.7%, reversing a 0.2% increase recorded in July.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales rose 1.4% in August, the strongest expansion in three months, following a 0.2% increase in July.

The RBI’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike, along with indications of further tightening, has led mutual funds to pare exposure to longer-dated government securities. They recorded net sales of INR 378 billion in July–September and an additional INR 51 billion over the three sessions following the rate increase. At the same time, Brent crude trading above USD 100 per barrel and expectations that September inflation will rise to 5.4% year-on-year have heightened concerns about persistent price pressures.

At the same time, lower spot coke prices have eased cost pressures, helping to narrow steelmakers’ losses and potentially slowing the pace of output cuts. Nonetheless, any upside remains limited by signs of growing global supply, as miners ramp up shipments in the fourth quarter to meet quarterly and annual targets. Adding to the sector’s challenges, recent data showed that only 6.9% of Chinese steel producers were profitable at the end of September, underscoring the industry’s ongoing financial strain.

Retail sales rose 10.1% year-on-year in August, down marginally from a 10.4% increase recorded in July 2026. Both figures compare the respective months to the same month a year earlier, indicating that while consumer activity remains robust, the pace of expansion has begun to moderate.

The slight slowdown suggests that demand in Turkey’s consumer market is stabilizing after a period of stronger growth, with August’s reading still pointing to solid underlying retail activity despite the softer uptick from July’s performance.

The month-over-month comparison indicates that consumer activity gained momentum as the summer progressed. While July’s figure reflected only marginal growth, August’s sharper increase suggests a firmer pick-up in spending across the retail segment. The data compares each reported month with the immediately preceding one, highlighting that the current 1.4% gain follows the weaker 0.2% advance recorded in the prior period.

The August reading will be closely watched by market participants tracking the trajectory of domestic demand in Turkey, as retail sales remain a key gauge of consumer behavior and short-term economic dynamics.

Imports increased at an even faster pace, advancing 13.7% to EUR 10.692 billion, fueled by higher purchases from EU partners (+11.5%) as well as from non-EU markets (+18.5%).

Over the January–August period, exports grew 4.0% to EUR 65.825 billion, driven mainly by higher sales of machinery and transport equipment (+2.1%), manufactured goods classified chiefly by raw materials (+7.1%), and food and live animals (+9.8%). During the same interval, imports rose 3.4% to EUR 88.270 billion, reflecting increased inflows of machinery and transport equipment (+4.5%), chemicals and related products (+5.7%), and mineral fuels, lubricants, and related products (+14.5%).

As a result, Romania’s trade deficit for the first eight months of the year reached EUR 22.445 billion.

The European economic calendar is relatively light, with no major data releases scheduled, though French luxury group LVMH is due to report earnings. Investors are also looking ahead to Wednesday’s results from Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML Holding, which are expected to provide fresh insight into demand linked to artificial intelligence. In premarket trading, futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 were both up about 0.3%.

By contrast, price growth slowed in restaurants and hotels (5.2% vs 7.6%) and in information and communication (3.7% vs 5.1%). Food prices declined further (-2.1% vs -1.5%), and prices for clothing and footwear also fell (-0.6% vs 1.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat in September, following a 0.3% decrease in August. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, eased to 1.9% in September—its lowest level in five months—from 2.2% in August.

In August 2026, the CPI had dropped by 0.30% compared with July, pointing to downward pressure on prices at the time. September’s flat reading suggests that this pressure may have eased, with price levels holding steady relative to the previous month.

The figures are based on a month‑over‑month comparison, where the current value shows the change in September versus August, and the previous value reflects the change in August versus July. This shift from a negative to a neutral rate will be watched closely as an indicator of whether Danish inflation is stabilizing after recent volatility in consumer prices.

On a year-over-year basis, the “actual” figure for September compares the price level in September 2026 with that of September 2025, while the “previous” figure for August compared prices in August 2026 with August 2025. The move from 2.00% to 2.10% suggests that, although inflation remains relatively contained, underlying price pressures in Denmark have edged higher as the third quarter came to a close.

Both the current and previous readings compare prices to the same month a year earlier, meaning September’s 2.2% figure reflects how much prices have increased since September of the prior year, while August’s 2.0% was measured against August a year earlier. The move suggests that, although price pressures remain relatively contained, inflationary dynamics in Denmark have not fully settled and continue to fluctuate modestly on an annual basis.

The worsening trade gap in August suggests sustained demand for foreign goods and services, or relatively weaker export performance, compared with the previous month. While the data set does not break down sector contributions, the negative trajectory of the trade balance may raise concerns for policymakers monitoring Romania’s external position and its potential implications for currency stability and growth prospects.

Market participants and analysts are likely to watch upcoming releases closely to determine whether August’s figures represent a temporary fluctuation or signal a more persistent trend of widening deficits in Romania’s trade dynamics.

In India, the world’s largest buyer, refiners reportedly purchased about 150,000 tonnes of palm oil over three days last week, amid tight sunflower oil supplies ahead of the November festive season.

However, gains were limited by bearish monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. September inventories surged 24.5% to a record 3.51 million tonnes, extending a six-month upward trend. Output increased 16.5% to 2.12 million tonnes, the highest level since August 2015, while exports declined 12.1% to 1.12 million tonnes, marking a second consecutive monthly drop.

Traders remained cautious, awaiting China’s inflation and trade data due later this week for further indications of demand from another key consuming market.

The strongest export growth was recorded in base metals and articles thereof (+18%), raw materials and products of the chemical industry (+17%), paper and paper products (+13%), and optical, measuring and precision instruments (+8%).

Imports, however, grew at a considerably faster pace, increasing by 10% to EUR 1,835 million, driven by higher purchases from both EU (+10%) and non-EU (+8%) partners. The largest gains were seen in mineral products (+30%), machinery and mechanical appliances (+25%), raw materials and products of the chemical industry (+18%), and transport equipment (+17%).

Over the first eight months of the year, Estonia posted a cumulative trade deficit of EUR 2,701 million, up from EUR 2,561 million in the corresponding period of 2025.

Sector moves were mixed: commercial services, manufacturing, and non-energy minerals led the advance, more than offsetting declines in communications, technology, and industrials. Among heavyweight names, BHP Group climbed 2.4% and Rio Tinto added 1.3%, while the big four banks gained between 1% and 2.3%. Other notable performers included Bluescope Steel, up 3.7%, Sandfire Resources, up 3.5%, Xero, up 3.3%, and Seek, up 2.3%.

Investors are now looking ahead to the Reserve Bank’s meeting minutes, along with September data on the labor market, business confidence, and the leading index. In China, attention turns to the upcoming releases of CPI, PPI, and trade figures later this week.

Market participants are now watching for confirmation from both Moscow and Kyiv, as well as any indication that this agreement could lead to a broader easing of tensions. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, making the Black Sea a critical corridor for international supply.

At the same time, Asian wheat millers are trimming forward purchases amid rising prices and continuing disruptions in the Black Sea, which remains one of the world’s key exporting hubs. According to traders and processors, some millers in Southeast and South Asia are limiting coverage to their requirements through December, or even closer to actual delivery dates.

The local market also followed Wall Street’s advance on Friday, supported by optimism over a potentially strong corporate earnings season. Nonetheless, investors remained cautious ahead of key domestic data, including New Zealand’s food inflation figures and the latest business PMI, both due later this week.

Market participants were also looking to upcoming US inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, as well as China’s September CPI and PPI releases for further guidance on global economic conditions.

Notable gainers included Ryman Healthcare (+7.0%), Ebos Group (+4.9%), Brisco Group (+3.5%), South Port NZ (+3.0%), ANZ Group (+2.7%), Westpac Banking Corp. (+2.2%), Infratil (+1.8%), and Fisher & Paykel (+1.6%).

At the same time, China and the European Union recently reached an agreement that could cut Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the bloc by more than half, as both sides move to address the EU’s widening trade deficit with China amid intensifying tensions over trade imbalances and market access. Investors are now focused on an upcoming slate of Chinese economic indicators, including inflation and trade figures.