The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade sideways on Thursday, as was particularly visible on the hourly chart. The British pound demonstrates the market's weariness when new geopolitical news comes in. Traders are tired of Trump's endless promises, the recurring opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and constant reports of deals and negotiations. Therefore, the market is now only prepared to respond to significant, verified, and confirmed information. What's the point of another message from the U.S. president if it is contradicted by the authorities in Tehran just 15 minutes later? This week, Trump has mentioned negotiations and a deal happening "any minute now" at least five times. Yet all we see is that Tehran is refusing to meet again with JD Vance and other "cronies" of Trump, as the White House has a peculiar understanding of the concepts of "agreement" and "fairness."

Over the past weekend, Trump claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and secure, only for Iran to close it again on Saturday. It turned out that Tehran agreed to open the strait, but the White House maintained its blockade. This has created a situation where all commercial vessels and tankers can cross the strait at will while the U.S. Navy continues to block Iranian ports and ships. Naturally, Iran could not tolerate such a situation in its "own" strait for more than a day.

Yesterday, Donald Trump made several more "important" statements. First, the U.S. president indicated that there are no timelines for the war in Iran. It does not matter that, a month and a half ago, Trump spoke about the short duration of the operation and said it would take no more than a few weeks. The seventh week of confrontation has passed, and the market has once again confirmed that Trump's words should be viewed with skepticism. Trump also stated that negotiations could last as long as needed, and that the US is profiting directly from the ongoing conflict.

This is indeed the case, as oil and gas prices (which Washington actively trades) have surged over the past two months, and currently, there are no military actions in the Middle East. Thus, American energy companies are reaping significant profits (while ensuring they share with the government), and at the moment, Trump is spending minimally on the war in the Middle East. Here he is—a true businessman.

Overall, Trump has nearly stated openly that he has decided to impose a financial blockade on Iran. Iran, for which revenues from energy sales are fundamental to its budget, is supposed by Trump's thinking to rush to a deal if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed to it. Meanwhile, the US would make more money on LNG and oil. This is how one can kill two birds with one stone. Should we expect further declines in the GBP/USD pair? It is possible, but unlikely to be strong or prolonged. The geopolitical factor has already been priced in by traders, just like the most pessimistic scenario regarding oil and gas prices.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 63 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. On Friday, April 24, we expect movements within a range bounded by 1.3429 and 1.3555. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3489
• S2 – 1.3428
• S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3550
• R2 – 1.3611
• R3 – 1.3672

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to recover after two "months of geopolitics." Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the U.S. dollar to grow in 2026. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3367 on technical grounds. In recent weeks, the British currency has recovered, while the geopolitical factor has lost its influence on the market.

Explanations of Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help to define the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility readings;

The CCI indicator – its entrance into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its modest decline on Thursday, and in this article, we will analyze why the euro is falling while the pound is not. Overall, we can say that both the pound and the euro remain relatively stable—not just in the short term (the last two months), but also in the long term. Switching to the daily timeframe shows that the U.S. dollar has only managed another correction. Importantly, the EUR/USD pair has been unable to drop below 1.1440 during any correction over the past nine months, which marks the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Thus, there is no talk of a long-term downward trend. Yes, we have observed sideways movement for the last nine months (with rare exceptions), but a flat trend can persist indefinitely. It is worth reminding traders that trending movements are sharp and fast, while flat trends are slow and weak.

As mentioned over the weekend, we anticipated a corrective decline for both the euro and the pound. The euro is indeed falling, but the British pound is holding steady. Why? In our view, the issue lies in energy and inflation. First and foremost, it should be remembered that the UK is far less dependent on external energy resource supplies than the European Union. This means that London has felt much more confident than Brussels over the past two months. Additionally, the recent inflation data in the UK shows an increase of only 0.3% in March, while in the eurozone it was 0.7%. Thus, the potential energy crisis triggered by Donald Trump has more serious consequences for the European economy than for the British one.

Furthermore, it is important to note that both pairs are currently influenced by technical factors. Geopolitics has faded into the background, allowing both the euro and the pound to recover in recent weeks. Additionally, there have been no significant geopolitical news items this week. The constant flow of alternating messages about the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the similar flow regarding negotiations in Pakistan are data that traders no longer react to. What is the point if there are up to ten contradictory messages coming in a single day?

The situation in the Middle East may heat up again, and that is a fact. Therefore, the necessity for a correction is somewhat supported by the current geopolitical situation. However, there have been no significant changes in the positions of the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days. Oil prices remain high, the Strait remains closed, and Tehran and Washington are still unable to reach any agreements, with Donald Trump continuing to exert any possible pressure on Iran.

Thus, we believe that the EUR/USD pair will continue to correct, but without serious negative news from the Middle East, the decline will not last long. The dollar has lost its sole support factor.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 24 is 64 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1640 and 1.1768 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, there could actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1658
• S2 – 1.1597
• S3 – 1.1536

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1719
• R2 – 1.1780
• R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement amid the weakening influence of geopolitics on market sentiment. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, so in the long term, we still expect the pair to grow. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.1658 and 1.1640 on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1780 and 1.1841. The market gradually distances itself from the geopolitical factor, while the dollar loses its only growth driver.

Explanations of Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help to define the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility readings;

The CCI indicator – its entrance into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded between 1.3480 and 1.3588 on Thursday, though the channel has narrowed to 1.3480-1.3535. The area between 1.3465 and 1.3480 could not be breached again, so the flat movement remains intact. Yesterday, business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors were published in the UK. Although both indices showed higher values than expected, there was no market reaction to this data. This again proves that the market is ignoring the broader macroeconomic backdrop. Earlier in the week, more significant and equally resonant reports on unemployment and inflation in the UK were published, which also did not elicit any response from traders. Thus, the situation remains unchanged, and the British pound continues to struggle to correct meaningfully.

From a technical perspective, the British currency is set for a downward correction but is still trading within a flat range. If the price consolidates below the 1.3465-1.3480 area, the decline will continue toward the Senkou Span B line. Below the Senkou Span B line, we only expect further declines if negotiations between the US and Iran completely fail and war resumes.

On the 5-minute timeframe, five trading signals were formed yesterday for buying. The price bounced off the 1.3480 level five times during the day, and in the best case, it moved up by about 20-25 pips. Consequently, traders could have opened long positions, but they did not yield significant profit or loss.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently intersect and are usually close to zero. Currently, these lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders still dominating with their sales. However, given the events in the Middle East, it is no longer surprising that demand for risk currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors currently take precedence, providing strong support for the dollar. According to the latest COT report (from April 14), the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,600 BUY contracts and 5,900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,700 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, but it is only correcting this week. The situation in the Middle East remains tense but has not worsened, so there are few solid reasons for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at this time. This week has been corrective and low-volatility, with the market waiting for truly important events.

For April 24, we highlight the following important trading levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3487) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3535) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Friday, the UK retail sales report will be published, and in the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released. However, how likely is it that the market will even notice these reports? Donald Trump has promised that good news on negotiations with Iran will be announced by Friday... Well, we can only wait.

Trading Recommendations:

On Friday, traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1657-1.1666 area, targeting 1.1615-1.1625. Long positions can be opened on a bounce off the Senkou Span B line with targets of 1.1750-1.1760.

Explanations of Illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance – thick red lines, around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator that are carried over to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward corrective movement on Thursday. Volatility has remained quite low for several days, and the pair's decline is purely technical. However, it cannot be denied that the geopolitical backdrop may currently provide muted support for the U.S. dollar, as the conflict in the Middle East has clearly not de-escalated in recent days. Despite the ceasefire being respected by all parties, there has been no progress in negotiations, nor any movement by both sides toward talks. Yesterday, business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors were published in the EU and Germany, as well as in the US and the UK, but judging by the pair's volatility, these data failed to interest the market once again. As a result, the European currency has been sluggishly declining technically throughout the week.

From a technical perspective, the upward trend may be disrupted soon. The ascending trend line has been breached, but the Senkou Span B line still remains intact. Until it is broken, we would not rush to conclude that the local upward trend has ended. Additionally, significant geopolitical news may emerge at any time, triggering a new market storm.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Thursday. During the European trading session, the price approached the Senkou Span B line but failed to react to it. Therefore, no buy signal was generated.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated April 14. The illustration of the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly decreasing due to geopolitical events. Traders are shedding European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar. Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar is currently serving as a "reserve currency," which is driving high demand for it.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro, while there are plenty of factors that would weaken the U.S. dollar. The war in the Middle East has made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but once that "shelf life" expires, everything will revert to the way it was. In the long term, the euro could fall to as low as 1.06 (trendline), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Currently, the pair has not strayed far from the descending trendline, which has been breached several times.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 13,700, while the number of shorts decreased by 19,900. Consequently, the net position increased by 33,600 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend but is currently undergoing a correction. The situation in the Middle East remains tense but is not worsening, so there are few strong reasons for the U.S. dollar to strengthen in the near term. This week has been corrective and low-volatility, with the market awaiting major events.

For April 24, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1674) and Kijun-sen line (1.1765). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Friday, Germany will publish the business climate index, and the University of Michigan will release the consumer sentiment index in the US. The market is likely to ignore these macroeconomic data as it does not consider them important.

Trading Recommendations:

On Friday, traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1657-1.1666 area, targeting 1.1615-1.1625. Long positions can be opened on a bounce off the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.1750-1.1760.

Explanations of Illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance – thick red lines, around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator that are carried over to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Iran has reported that the blockade of Iranian ports is the main reason why full-fledged peace negotiations are impossible. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran welcomes dialogue, but America must also demonstrate a readiness for peace. Pezeshkian openly accused the U.S. authorities and the American state of hypocrisy and contradictions "that the whole world can see." Tehran will continue to take all necessary measures to protect its national interests.

Some experts and "insiders" report that Iranian authorities may fear a national uprising; however, this information should be regarded with caution, as it has been in previous "insider" reports. For example, the BBC reported that Iran may eventually find itself at the negotiating table, as the number of public protests has increased in recent weeks. According to some data, nearly 20 people have been executed. Representatives of military units report that any dissent will be actively suppressed. Is this already Orwell's "1984"? Or not yet?

At the same time, Iran attacked several commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that were attempting to breach the blockade, and one more vessel was seized. This event sends a clear message to all insiders who continuously talk about negotiations, peace, and the unblocking of Hormuz. Real events show that movement through the strait is completely blocked, without exception. Pakistan continues to try to urge both sides toward negotiations, hoping to assert itself on the international stage.

Analysts also highlight Donald Trump's contradictory statements. One moment, the U.S. president threatens to completely destroy Iran, and the next, he talks about an almost signed deal and good news. Trump has effectively achieved a change in leadership in Tehran, but has not succeeded in changing the political regime. Instead of the ousted officials, others with the same anti-American views have come to power. Trump himself stated that Iran needs more time for the ruling elite to come to a common position regarding negotiations with the US. This raises the question: who exactly is Trump negotiating with?

From the above, one thing is clear—nothing is clear. The situation can swing in any direction at any moment. This is why the currency market is hesitant to make decisions, and why oil prices are rising again: the absence of negotiations is, in fact, the path to escalation, not peace. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more the world's strategic oil reserves will shrink. Consequently, the shortage of black gold may become even more acute in the near future.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (lower picture), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if a stable, long-term truce is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that from current positions, a new downward wave set may begin. Or a corrective wave may continue.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one descending wave (presumably d). The upward segment of the trend may take on a five-wave form, but for that to happen, the conflict in the Middle East needs to subside, not reignite. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34th figure or slightly below. After that, everything will again depend on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back and often entail changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty regarding the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

There are a few reasons for joy regarding the Middle East and oil prices in the markets right now. Brent crude oil futures have risen from $84 to $98 over the past five days, illustrating market expectations regarding negotiations between the US and Iran and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the only optimist in this situation remains U.S. President Donald Trump. Over the past day, he has made several new statements on this key topic for all markets, revealing that the White House is in no hurry regarding the Middle East, as it is focused on cashing in on oil and gas sales at elevated prices.

Overall, Trump has previously stated that America is making hundreds of billions of dollars from high energy prices. He has expressed interest in Iranian oil, and previously, Trump conducted a military intervention in Venezuela that also ended with control over black gold. Perhaps this time the raw truth lies in the black substance without which the modern world can hardly go a week?

This week, Trump unexpectedly extended the ceasefire with Iran. This event has an intriguing background, raising questions. Why did Trump extend the ceasefire if Iran has effectively walked away from negotiations? Why is there no specific deadline for the new ceasefire? Normally, Trump establishes clear timeframes, but now it seems as if he does not care how much longer the conflict, in which the US is directly involved, will persist.

In my opinion, there are two possible explanations. The first is that Trump is indeed in no hurry. What is there to rush for? The ceasefire does not imply new rocket attacks or strikes on American bases or Iranian facilities. In other words, it seems there is no war, but there are super profits from oil and gas. The second is that Trump is preparing a new strike against Iran. Recent reports indicate that a third aircraft carrier is heading to the Persian Gulf, suggesting an impending escalation.

Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to assure that a new round of negotiations may take place in the next 2-3 days. Based on what are such promises made if Iran has openly stated that new negotiations are impossible until America lifts the blockade of Iranian ports? And the US is not planning to lift the blockade, as it also represents a financial blockade. Iran cannot sell oil, and Trump has already calculated that the country is losing about $500 million a day.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (lower picture), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if a stable, long-term truce is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that from current positions, a new downward wave set may begin. Or a corrective wave may continue.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one descending wave (presumably d). The upward segment of the trend may take on a five-wave form, but for that to happen, the conflict in the Middle East needs to subside, not reignite. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34th figure or slightly below. After that, everything will again depend on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back and often entail changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty regarding the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Dynamics of European Business Activity

The main blow from the Strait of Hormuz blockade has fallen on Europe. Meanwhile, companies from Japan to Australia feel more resilient. According to DZ Bank, the economic damage to the currency bloc has already been significant. It remains to be seen how much worse it will get. The answer to this question will depend on the duration of the blockade of this key global oil artery.

Currently, there are no grounds for a full resumption of traffic. The US has decided to establish an indefinite ceasefire and is awaiting proposals from Iran on conflict resolution. Iran continues to terrorize foreign tankers and expresses outrage when Americans do the same to Tehran's vessels. Such aggression between the two could ultimately lead to an escalation and increased demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

However, markets continue to remain optimistic. No one is bombing Iran anymore. Oil prices are far from record highs, and there is no scent of recession in the global economy. Everything is fine, a wonderful marquise? Why sell EUR/USD if the peak of escalation in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has passed?

Whether this is true or not, opponents will try to answer. The White House is waiting for proposals from Tehran, but they are not forthcoming. Attempts by Americans to deprive Iran of income from oil and gas seem, to put it mildly, naive. It's a long process that takes time. Donald Trump has decided that he has that time.

In reality, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the higher the oil prices climb. The worse the situation becomes for the eurozone and the euro. Ultimately, the principle of fundamental analysis—"a strong economy equals a strong currency"—is still valid. The eurozone appears decidedly weak, whereas the US is benefiting from exporting oil and petroleum products at record levels.

In such conditions, the theme of American exceptionalism, which dominated in 2022-2023, may return to the financial markets. When both the stock market and the U.S. economy are ahead of the rest of the world. The rest can only lament and imitate. And this typically ends poorly.

Technically, the EUR/USD daily chart shows a continuation of the pullback toward the upward trend, in line with fair value at 1.1535. If the "bears" find the strength to reach that level, then a trend change can be considered. For now, opportunities should be sought to increase short positions on the euro against the U.S. dollar that were established at 1.1760.

Thus, after the powerful short initiative during the Asian session, the instrument has shifted to a long correction and is now testing the short breakdown zone, from which a continuation of the short trend may happen.

I suggest considering short positions on a pullback to the short breakdown level.

Set the risk limit at 4753. Take profit on a breakout at 4729.

The second and third target levels should be set at 4667 and 4640, respectively.

This trading idea is framed within the "Price Action" method and "Stop Hunting."

Wishing you success in trading, and remember to manage your risks!

The benchmark price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is weakening after a recovery, reaching $95.80-$95.85, a one-and-a-half-week high, and is under pressure as it returns to the 20-day SMA over the past few hours. Currently, oil prices are above $93.50.

Despite the temporary ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, traders remain skeptical of the prospects for sustainable de-escalation, given the lack of real progress in peace negotiations. Furthermore, rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns about prolonged disruptions in this strategically vital waterway, creating a high level of geopolitical risk and supporting rising oil prices for the third consecutive day.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the blockade of Iranian ports by the U.S. Navy will continue. In the same vein, Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim reported the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Navy seized two vessels, and on Wednesday, three container ships were shelled in the strait. These events, combined with an unexpected reduction in U.S. oil inventories, provide additional momentum for rising oil prices.

Meanwhile, the recent spike in prices was fueled by false reports of an attack on Tehran. However, this momentum quickly wanes in the absence of any significant news. This, in turn, requires traders focused on growth to exercise caution and be ready for potential further price increases. Nevertheless, the fundamental factors indicate that the path of least resistance for oil prices remains upward.

From a technical perspective, the picture is ambiguous: prices have dropped below the 20-day SMA, suggesting some weakening among bulls, but the relative strength index remains positive, confirming that bulls still dominate the market. The merging of the 9- and 14-day EMAs, along with the 50-day EMA, suggests a sideways movement in the near term. Therefore, traders looking to open directional positions should wait for a directional impulse.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no indication that the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year, has been canceled. However, the wave structure itself now looks quite ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest and smallest wave structures to make short-term forecasts—this is usually sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can become very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The simplest approach is to trade based on standard "five-three" patterns.

In the chart above, we can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave. If this is indeed the case, then the formation of this structure has been completed, and a corrective pattern of at least three waves is currently unfolding. We have already seen three waves, so the market may soon form at least one more corrective wave. Future developments will depend on geopolitics: either a more complex correction will develop, or a new downward trend segment will begin.

The EUR/USD pair declined by another 20–30 basis points on Thursday, with low volatility. Market participants could have shifted their focus from the largely uneventful geopolitical news flow to economic data. However, it cannot be said that PMI figures from Germany and the eurozone influenced trading.

In Germany, the manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2 (in line with expectations), while the services PMI was 46.9 (significantly below expectations). In the eurozone, manufacturing rose to 52.2, while services declined to 47.4. Thus, two out of four indicators were positive, and two were negative. The weak price movement suggests that the market largely ignored these reports.

There were no other significant reports. In the US, weekly jobless claims were released, but this data is generally considered insignificant for assessing the labor market, as it is published every week and rarely influences sentiment. PMI data from S&P (similar to European indicators) was also released, but the market tends to rely more on ISM indices, which are published monthly. As a result, no significant movement occurred, although the pair may still show slight movement before the end of the day.

The market remains focused on geopolitics, even though no major developments have occurred for about a week. Each day brings the same updates: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and negotiations between Tehran and Washington are being discussed but have yet to take place.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis, EUR/USD remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart) in the broader perspective, while in the short term it is in a corrective phase. The corrective wave structure appears largely complete and could become more complex and extended only if a stable, long-term ceasefire is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and other countries in the Middle East.

Otherwise, a new downward wave structure may begin from current levels—or the correction could continue.

On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is somewhat unconventional, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. Such cases do occur. It is better to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than strictly labeling every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction is impossible—always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

Undoubtedly, the US position is more convincing. Iran is now under an oil blockade, meaning it currently cannot sell its oil and gas to countries like China or India. For Iran, energy exports are a key source of budget revenue. This allows Trump to wait indefinitely until Tehran agrees to new negotiations. But will Tehran agree? In my view, it is unlikely. More likely, Iran may resume military action to forcefully lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and establish full control over it. I do not believe that a renewed conflict would provide enough support to the bears for EUR/USD to fall below the recent low near 1.1400, but the euro could decline toward imbalance 13.

The bullish move began after a reaction to the bullish imbalance 12 and cannot yet be considered complete. Traders had an excellent opportunity to open long positions, which are currently in solid profit. Now traders must decide whether to lock in profits or wait for further growth. The geopolitical background is better now than a few weeks ago, but the conflict in the Middle East could resume at any moment. From a technical perspective, no bearish signals or patterns have formed, so I do not expect a strong decline in the euro.

It is worth noting that the entire strengthening of the US dollar over the past one and a half to two months has been driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the bears immediately retreated, and the bulls launched an attack. At present, the truce remains fragile but intact, despite failed negotiations last Saturday and canceled talks on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. I have repeatedly said that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the break of key trend-forming lows. The movement of the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if geopolitics worsens further. However, markets often price in the most pessimistic scenario in advance. Thus, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the Middle East conflict.

The technical picture is currently clear. First, the price showed no reaction to imbalance 11. Second, it reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which represents a zone of interest for future long positions and a support area for the euro.

The news background on Thursday was mixed and once again had no impact on trader sentiment. Business activity indices in Germany and the eurozone were once again largely ignored.

There are still plenty of reasons for bulls to remain active in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the US currency may occasionally strengthen due to risk-off flows, but this requires constant escalation in the Middle East, which is unlikely. After just two weeks of calm, the euro has already recovered by 60%. And there are no other strong supporting factors for the dollar. I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will drive bears in the long term?

News calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Ifo Business Climate Index (08:00 UTC).
• US – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On April 24, the economic calendar contains only two events, none of which are particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is again expected to be very weak.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news background shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend cannot yet be considered canceled or completed. Thus, in the near term, bulls may continue their advance unless geopolitics suddenly turns toward renewed escalation.

Bulls had the opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, and the upward movement could continue toward this year's highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which may provide another bullish signal in the future. For the euro to rise without obstacles, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward a stable peace, which is not currently the case. However, bears also lack strong reasons to attack. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis.

At the moment, the situation in the Middle East remains difficult and tense, but it is not worsening. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively not been reopened, negotiations between the US and Iran were initially at a deadlock, and the ceasefire remains in place. Washington's main demand—that Tehran abandon nuclear weapons—has been rejected, and Iran is not ready for new talks while US naval forces continue blocking its ports. Thus, the situation has not improved, but it has not deteriorated either. The market continues to wait for a resolution: either the war resumes, or the sides hold at least another round of negotiations that brings some clarity regarding the timeline of the conflict and the truce. A reaction to imbalance 19 (bullish) could push bulls into new attacks. Therefore, in the coming days, traders should closely watch for the formation of a new bullish signal. If this pattern is invalidated, the pound's decline will continue toward imbalance 18.

The latest rally in the pound began with a "Three Drives Pattern." Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very start of the move, and the trend remains bullish. At present, the ceasefire is quite fragile, and the parties to the conflict have not yet decided what to do next—resume negotiations or continue fighting. Talks may resume this week, but the conflict could also reignite. The Strait of Hormuz remains under dual blockade, and Tehran and Washington cannot agree on the next round of negotiations. In fact, as of Thursday, nothing has changed for about a week. Both sides express willingness to sign an agreement only verbally, while no real steps are being taken.

The "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle, allowed bulls to take control. There was a second reaction to imbalance 16, but the second reaction is typically weaker than the first. The pair also took liquidity from the February 26 high, and together these two factors triggered the current corrective pullback, which may end at imbalance 19. Thus, in the near future, either a new bullish signal may form, or the bullish pattern will be invalidated, allowing for a bearish move.

The economic news background on Thursday was again quite interesting, but traders did not seem to care. Both PMI indicators in the UK came in better than forecasts, yet the pound showed no growth, and traders displayed no interest in these reports.

In the United States, the overall background remains such that, in the long term, little can be expected other than a weakening dollar. Even the war between Iran and the US does little to change this. Geopolitics temporarily revived the dollar's safe-haven appeal for about two months, but overall, the long-term outlook for the US dollar remains challenging. The US labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not planning to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, there have already been four major protests across the US directed personally against Donald Trump. From an economic standpoint, I see no strong reasons for dollar growth.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• UK – Retail sales (06:00 UTC).
• US – University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (14:00 UTC).

On April 24, the economic calendar contains just two events, which may also be ignored, as has been the case with most reports this week. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may again be extremely weak.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

For the pound, the long-term picture remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" warned traders of possible growth, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a bullish signal. The price took liquidity from bullish swings on March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, yet the bears did not launch an attack in either case. This is another positive factor for the pound—traders remain in a bullish mood.

Thus, under the current conditions, despite geopolitical factors, I believe the upward movement will continue. Most likely, the euro will also continue to rise. The target for the pound is the 2026 high. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered a corrective pullback, but a reaction to imbalance 19 could provide traders with a new buying signal.

Yesterday, equity indices finished the day mostly higher: the S&P 500 rose by 1.05%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.64%, and the Dow Jones added 0.69%. However, futures on the major indices are now trading lower as markets were rattled by a lack of progress in US–Iran talks, which increased geopolitical uncertainty.

Against that backdrop, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reports of several commercial vessels seized en route supported crude prices and weighed on investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6%: decliners outnumbered advancers roughly three to one, and rising oil prices pushed down growth expectations. Follow the link for more details.

Investors remain bullish on S&P 500 and Nasdaq

The market seems to have "priced it all in": if the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are setting fresh highs, investors evidently expect a favorable outcome. Despite the collapse of US–Iran talks, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and elevated oil prices, investors are buying the dips. The Middle East drama is not over, but market participants appear to believe the worst is behind us: the ceasefire is being extended, and Trump says he does not plan to return to bombing.

As for oil and recession risks, those threats have been softened: supply shortfalls are not one-for-one, while high prices, releases from strategic reserves, alternative logistics routes, and re-routing of tanker cargoes are all cushioning the impact. Against that backdrop, attention is shifting back to corporate earnings and technology. After a lull, interest in AI has returned, and among S&P 500 companies that have already reported Q1 results, roughly 80% beat earnings expectations. Follow the link for more details.

Trump highlights naval blockade of Iranian ports as key pressure tool

Donald Trump has shifted the emphasis in the Iran discussion. According to himm Washington will not push talks into a "hard window" and will wait for a truly advantageous outcome. At the same time, he argued that pressure on Iranian ports via a naval blockade is, in his view, more effective than kinetic strikes.

Meanwhile, the situation at sea remains explosive: US interceptions of tankers, IRGC detentions of vessels, and promises of "surprises" have increased the risk of mines. Clearing the strait could take months, effectively freezing a key oil route through summer 2026. There has been no progress on deblocking. The world is losing millions of barrels of oil and a significant share of LNG every day. Therefore, early optimism about peace initiatives looks like more of a media effect. Follow the link for more details.

The test of the 159.63 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 14 points.

In the second half of the day, economic data from the United States is expected to be released, presenting a similar picture of the economy's condition. It will begin with manufacturing and services PMI indices and conclude with the composite PMI. A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while a decline below this level signals recession. The key element of the analysis will be the composite PMI, which combines data from both sectors and provides a more averaged assessment of overall business conditions.

In addition, weekly initial jobless claims data will be released. A decline in new claims indicates a strengthening labor market and falling unemployment, which is a positive signal for the economy and the US dollar. Conversely, an increase in this indicator may suggest slowing economic growth and rising labor market stress.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point is reached around 159.81 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.19 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.19, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). A rise in the pair today may occur if the US and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.63 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 159.81 and 160.19 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.63 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.17, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return today if positive news emerges from the Middle East.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.81 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.63 and 159.17 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3486 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. However, this did not lead to a major decline, and buying at 1.3497 turned out to be more successful.

Positive news from the UK, particularly related to PMI indices, halted the pound's decline in the first half of the day. Such positive economic signals usually stimulate capital inflows into the country and support the national currency. However, due to the situation in the Middle East and continued strong demand for the US dollar, this did not happen. The market remains cautious, with the tense geopolitical situation around the Strait of Hormuz being the main reason for this restrained behavior.

In the second half of the day, similar reports are expected, but from the United States. It will begin with manufacturing and services PMI data and conclude with the composite PMI. Together, these indicators will provide a comprehensive picture of the state of the US economy, allowing investors and analysts to assess growth rates and potential risks. The manufacturing PMI, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is traditionally one of the key indicators of industrial activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a drop below that level indicates contraction.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3498 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3519 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3519, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). A rise in the pound today can only be expected after weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3486 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3498 and 1.3519 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3486 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3457, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound may return today if the US and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3498 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3486 and 1.3457 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1701 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by nearly 20 points.

Positive reports on manufacturing PMI in the eurozone certainly brought a glimmer of hope to the region's economic outlook. The increase in manufacturing output, reflected in the PMI data, indicated a possible recovery and strengthening of production capacity. However, despite these encouraging signals, the overall picture is overshadowed by rather disappointing data from the services sector. This segment, which accounts for a significant share of the eurozone's GDP, is once again facing serious difficulties. Reduced consumer spending due to sharply rising prices, the consequences of the war in the Middle East, and overall uncertainty may have led to stagnation or even decline in sectors such as tourism, hospitality, retail, and personal services.

In the second half of the day, close attention will shift to economic data from the United States. The key indicators today will be the PMIs covering both the manufacturing and services sectors. The manufacturing PMI will serve as a reliable indicator of the health of the industrial sector. Meanwhile, the services PMI, which represents the backbone of the U.S. economy, will reflect trends in key areas, including retail. However, the most significant event of the day will be the release of the composite PMI. This comprehensive indicator, combining data from both manufacturing and services, will provide an overall picture of business activity in the United States.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1694 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1712. At 1.1712, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after positive news from the Middle East.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1678 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1694 and 1.1712 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1678 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1645, where I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1694 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1678 and 1.1645 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Strong data on manufacturing activity in the eurozone and the UK undoubtedly provided a ray of hope, given the economic challenges both regions are expected to face in the near future due to the energy crisis. Growth in the manufacturing sector, reflected in the PMI indices, suggests a potential recovery and strengthening of the industrial sector at the beginning of this spring. This may have been driven by various factors, including increased export demand, the restoration of supply chains, or the successful implementation of government support measures. However, it is unlikely that we can count on sustained strength in the manufacturing sector, as it has not yet fully felt the impact of the looming new energy crisis in the region.

Today, in the second half of the day, attention shifts to the U.S. economic calendar, where a number of key macroeconomic indicators are expected to be released, potentially having a significant impact on the currency market. The main focus will be on the U.S. manufacturing and services PMI indices.

The manufacturing PMI traditionally serves as a barometer of the health of the industrial sector, reflecting production volumes, new orders, employment, and other key parameters. Similarly, the services PMI—which represents the largest sector of the U.S. economy—will show trends in areas such as retail trade, transportation, hospitality, and professional services. Together, these indicators will help traders assess whether their current decisions to buy the U.S. dollar are justified.

In addition, weekly initial jobless claims data in the U.S. will be released. This report is considered one of the most timely indicators of labor market conditions. Significant changes in this figure may signal trends in employment, which in turn directly affect consumer spending, overall economic activity, and the U.S. dollar.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1695 may lead to growth toward 1.1720 and 1.1750;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1680 may lead to a decline toward 1.1650 and 1.1620.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3515 may lead to growth toward 1.3551 and 1.3596;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3475 may lead to a decline toward 1.3446 and 1.3416.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.83 may lead to growth toward 160.02 and 160.24;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.60 may lead to a decline toward 159.36 and 159.13.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1705, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1675, on a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3511, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3469, on a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7154, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7120, on a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3690, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3665, on a return to this level.

Thus, according to the published data, the headline consumer price index rose 0.7% month-on-month in March (forecast 0.6%). That represents the strongest monthly pace since April last year. On a year-on-year basis headline CPI rose as expected to 3.3% (the fastest pace since December last year).

However, the core consumer price index, which excludes energy and food, unexpectedly slowed to 3.1% after rising to 3.2% in the prior month; most analysts had expected the measure to remain at the February level.

By contrast, the retail price index, which employers use in wage discussions, printed in the green. After two months of decline (it dropped to 3.6% in February) RPI jumped to 4.1% year-on-year, above the 3.9% forecast.

Other inflation gauges also accelerated materially. For example, the input PPI hit a multi-year high, jumping to 5.4% year on year in March; by comparison, it oscillated in a -1.3% to +1.1% range over the past year. Producer output prices also accelerated to 2.6% after four consecutive months of deceleration (they stood at 1.8% in February).

As we see, March's result looks quite mixed. Perhaps the main surprise here came from slowing core inflation. That signal tells the market that price growth stems not from domestic demand but from external shocks, primarily the energy crisis. Consequently, the Bank of England has every reason to view the March inflation spike as transitory. In other words, headline CPI is unlikely to force a material shift in the regulator's stance.

On the contrary, yesterday's report may soften the central bank's rhetoric, because imported inflation hits households' pockets and restrains economic growth. As noted above, the rise in headline inflation reflects mainly a surge in gasoline and diesel prices amid the Middle East conflict. Higher pump prices and rising energy bills literally erode household incomes. Against this backdrop the IMF already cut its UK growth forecast for the year to 0.8% from the prior 1.3%.

A classic stagflation configuration is taking shape: high headline inflation alongside slowing economic growth. That combination raises the risk that the economy will fall into a stagflation trap.

Under these conditions, the Bank of England will almost certainly remain on hold and is unlikely to harden its rhetoric, especially given the persistent weakness in the UK labor market. Recall that, according to data published the day before yesterday, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 26.8 thousand (forecast 21.4 thousand). That increase marks the fifth consecutive month of upward dynamics. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, but the key driver of that decline proved to be people leaving the labor force: economic inactivity rose to 21%. In addition, February recorded the slowest wage growth since late 2020 (pay rose only 3.8% including bonuses and 3.6% excluding bonuses).

Thus, the macro releases on inflation and the labor market published this week did not support the pound, despite the green readings in some components. Headline inflation rises do not coincide with economic optimism and instead raise recession risks — they constrain the Bank of England's hands — while unemployment falls because economic inactivity increases.

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD sits inside the Kumo cloud on the H4 and D1 charts. On the H4 timeframe, the price lies between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands and on the Tenkan-sen line but beneath Kijun-sen. On the D1 timeframe, the price sits between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands and above both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. All this points to persistent uncertainty. Consider short positions only after the pair confirms a close below support at 1.3480 (the lower Bollinger Band on the H4 chart); in that case the next downside target would be 1.3410 (the lower Kumo boundary on D1). Longs on the pair look too risky given ongoing and intensifying geopolitical risks.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure, although it is showing some resilience below the $4700 level. The US dollar has been strengthening for the third consecutive day, acting as a key factor weighing on the asset. Ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran—driven by the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz—remain a significant market driver. Additional pressure comes from reduced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports the dollar and weighs on precious metal prices.On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a temporary extension of the truce with Iran just hours before it was due to expire. Nevertheless, market participants remain skeptical about the prospects for sustained de-escalation, given the lack of meaningful progress in peace negotiations and the continuing escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump confirmed that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue, while Iran insists on its removal as a precondition for resuming dialogue. In addition, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported the seizure of two container ships—the first such incidents since the beginning of the conflict with the United States and Israel in February. This increases the risk of further escalation and maintains a high level of geopolitical uncertainty, supporting the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.At the same time, disruptions in energy supplies through this strategically important maritime route continue to keep oil prices elevated, contributing to accelerating global inflation. In turn, this strengthens expectations of tighter monetary policy from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Although policymakers still allow for one rate cut by the end of the year, persistent inflationary pressure and solid economic activity raise the bar for policy easing. As a result, the Fed may adopt a wait-and-see stance, which further supports the US dollar and contributes to capital outflows from precious metals.

Bearish sentiment for XAU/USD is intensifying; however, market participants are advised to wait for a firm break below the $4700 level before opening new short positions. Oscillators on the daily chart are negative. Nevertheless, the 200-day SMA has not yet turned downward, indicating that the bearish sentiment in the gold market may be temporary.

Investors reacted to this escalation immediately.

Demand for the US dollar, traditionally a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical uncertainty, rose again. At the same time, risk assets such as the euro and the British pound showed noticeable declines.

The new incident in the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and then the open seas, again became the number one problem for global trade and the economy. If last Friday Iran declared the strait fully open, then today's firing on merchant vessels and seizure of ships worsened prospects for a peaceful settlement by adding the immediate threat of a return to open warfare.

Two of the attacked vessels, MSC Francesca and Epaminondas, were subsequently boarded by Iranian forces, marking a new phase in Tehran's efforts to assert control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

In recent days, shipowners with vessels in the Persian Gulf have been on edge, and Wednesday's incident became the second wave of attacks in less than a week. As noted above, over the past weekend Iranian forces abruptly interrupted the brief reopening of the strait by firing on passing vessels — a step Tehran later said came in response to the US decision to keep its naval blockade in place.

The currency market reacted quickly. The euro, the pound, and other risk assets returned to decline, as all of this points to a possible escalation of the conflict after US President Donald Trump yesterday extended the truce indefinitely, saying it is necessary to seek a compromise to sign a peace agreement.

As for the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1720 level. Only that will allow a target test of 1.1760. From there it is possible to climb to 1.1790, but doing so without support from major players will prove rather difficult. The most distant target will be the high at 1.1822. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer interest only around 1.1690. If no buyers appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1650 or to open longs from 1.1620.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3515. Only that will allow the pair to reach a target of 1.3550, above which a breakout will prove rather difficult. The most distant target stands at the 1.3595 area. In the event of a drop, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3475. If they succeed, a range breakout will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.3445 with a prospect of reaching 1.3415.

Oil prices continued to climb for a third trading session on Thursday. The rise is being supported by two factors at once: stalled peace talks between the US and Iran and mounting disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Reuters, Brent futures were up 1.3% in early Asian trading, to $103.28 a barrel. Earlier on Wednesday, the contract closed above $100 for the first time in more than two weeks. At the same time, WTI futures rose 1.6% to $94.48 a barrel.

Both key benchmarks finished the previous session more than $3 higher as the market reacted to two stronger-than-expected drivers: a notable drop in US gasoline and distillate inventories and a lack of progress in diplomatic efforts.

Against this backdrop, hopes for a swift diplomatic settlement are fading. President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan's request, yet the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, in effect since April 13, remains in place.

As reported, Vice President J.D. Vance, who was to head the US negotiating team for the second round of talks in Islamabad, canceled the trip, while Iran never confirmed its willingness to take part in the second round.

Analysts note that "the oil market is revising expectations amid virtually no signs of a settlement in the Persian Gulf," and "hopes for resolving the crisis are waning as peace talks reach an impasse."

Trump has blamed the delay on Iran's "deeply divided" leadership and said he will wait until Tehran's leaders "produce a unified proposal."

The situation is being fueled by further escalation. According to NPR and Iranian state media, in recent days, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked at least three commercial vessels near the strait and seized two of them.

Iran, for its part, accuses the vessels of operating without proper permits — just days after it accused the Americans of "piracy" for seizing the Iranian cargo ship Touska on April 19.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's daily oil shipments passed before the war began on February 28, is effectively closed to normal commercial navigation.

The International Energy Agency described the current regime as "the largest disruption to supply in the history of the global oil market."

Compensating supplies from the US: there is growth, but it is not a "complete solution" While Asian and European countries are urgently seeking alternatives, US crude oil and petroleum product exports have risen to a record 12.88 million barrels per day. That is 137,000 barrels per day more than the previous week (Reuters).

Crude oil exports alone are about 5.44 million bpd in April and 5.48 million bpd in May. According to Kpler, that is roughly three times prewar shipment volumes to Asia.

Nevertheless, analysts warn that even a significant increase in US exports cannot fully offset the loss of flows from the Persian Gulf. Moreover, even under the most favorable scenario of the strait suddenly reopening, the market may not receive immediate relief: the EIA forecasts that traffic will not return to prewar levels before the end of 2026.

Key takeaways for traders

1. Geopolitics vs. progress: the lack of confirmed steps toward a settlement and the cancellation of the negotiator's trip increase the risk of a prolonged "supply-scarcity premium."
2. Live supplies under pressure: the effective halt of commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz supports hedging demand and makes prices more sensitive to news flow.
3. Macro and inventory support: the price rally is driven not only by regional developments but also by US signals of falling gasoline and distillate inventories.
4. Compensation is not recovery: US exports are rising (12.88 million bpd), but the market expects a full return to normal to be delayed until the end of 2026 at the earliest.

In short, while US crude and product exports have hit a record 12.88 million barrels per day, analysts believe this will not fully compensate for the loss of Persian Gulf flows. The EIA's forecast points to no return to prewar traffic levels before late 2026.

"Slow strangulation" strategy

President Donald Trump has radically shifted his rhetoric, saying that Washington is no longer rushing Tehran into a deal. In a Fox News interview, he denied rumors of a hard "three-to-five day window," stressing that the administration intends to wait for a "favorable agreement" rather than chase deadlines for the sake of midterm election ratings. Trump set a new target — next Sunday. At the same time he made clear that the current naval blockade of Iranian ports is a far more effective tool of pressure than massive bombings. In the president's view, the Iranians "hate the blockade" because it delivers a systemic blow to the economy that cannot be ignored.

Escalation at sea and the mine threat. Despite Trump's diplomatic courtesies toward Iran's "prudent" foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, the situation on the water remains extremely explosive. The conflict has spread well beyond the Persian Gulf: US forces intercepted three Iranian tankers in Asian waters, an act Tehran called piracy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also seized two vessels, and Iranian commanders promised the opponent "surprises" the Pentagon might not be ready for. The main "surprise" could be a mine and explosive barrier. US military estimates say full clearance of the strait could take up to six months, which would effectively freeze the world's principal oil artery for the entire summer of 2026.

Chokepoints economy

The current crisis vividly demonstrates the transformation of the global economy into a system of total confrontation through chokepoints. In the modern world, a state's power is defined not only by the number of aircraft carriers but also by control over critical segments:

• Financial systems and the ability to block transactions.
• Technology chains and access to chip manufacturing.
• Logistic arteries such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Malacca Strait.
• Rare earth resources critical for the new energy economy.

Control over these points provides asymmetric leverage. A mistake in identifying such a chokepoint makes any economic pressure useless, but a precise strike — as with the current blockade of Iranian exports — can paralyze an entire country without a full-scale invasion. The world is watching whether the Trump administration has enough patience and resources to hold these control points while the adversary is willing to take radical countermeasures.

For the global financial system, it is irrelevant whether the fighting is "hot" or "frozen." The only factor that objectively matters is the stability of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At present, there is no progress in unblocking the Persian Gulf. That means the world is losing 8–15 million barrels of oil per day and about 20% of global LNG volumes. All the optimism of the past two weeks, driven by Trump's "fake" peace plans, is a product of media manipulation. In reality, the energy crisis today is at the same point it was in early April.

Mathematics of depletion

Modeling shows the world is moving toward a "point of no return." With the current supply shortfall of 10–12 million barrels per day (over 300 million barrels per month), global stocks are shrinking at an alarming rate. By early May 2026, aggregate resources (strategic reserves of developed countries, temporarily released Russian and Iranian oil, and floating storage buffers) will be almost completely exhausted. Washington has only three options left:

• Truly open the Strait of Hormuz (which would require unacceptable concessions to Iran).
• Release another tranche of strategic reserves (a path to a complete depletion of energy security).
• Economic collapse when reserves hit rock bottom.

Iran's newfound agency

For Tehran, the current war has become a portal to regional great?power status. Control of the Persian Gulf and the ability to menace global infrastructure have given Iran real agency. Without these levers, the country risks becoming an isolated "vassal" of China with ruined industry and a degrading economy. Naturally, Iran does not intend to release the stranglehold on the global economy — it now dictates terms to the United States despite US military superiority. Moreover, even with limited exports (1.5 million bpd), Iran is earning windfall revenues of $2–3 billion per month thanks to soaring prices.

TACO won't help. While the US shows an incapacity to control shipping traffic, Iran keeps monetizing the chaos. The situation has reached an impasse: Trump is desperately looking for a way to arrive at the November elections not necessarily as the victor, but at least without losing face. Meanwhile, Iran is steadily raising the stakes, knowing that time and the West's emptying reserves are working in its favor. Russell Hardy, CEO of the largest independent oil trader Vitol, speaking at a summit in Lausanne, stated that the loss of one billion barrels of oil and petroleum products is not a gloomy forecast but already a fait accompli. Even if hostilities stop immediately, that colossal volume of "lost" crude is already predetermined by the paralysis of infrastructure. Since late February, when the first strikes on Iran began, roughly 12 million barrels per day have disappeared from the global balance.

That is twice the size of all strategic reserve interventions ever undertaken. Hardy, whose career spans nearly 40 years, says the current collapse even eclipses Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Back then, there were still spare capacities in the system, and the market was more compact. Today, all the "insurance" oil volumes are locked behind the Strait of Hormuz, delivering a direct hit to the global economy. And oil is only the tip of the iceberg:

• the blockade of Middle Eastern gas is already provoking a fertilizer shortage and a food crisis;
• a lack of sulfuric acid from the region is slowing global copper production.

The Wall Street dilemma, social rifts and long-term echo

Skepticism is growing over Donald Trump's ability to "solve" the situation. While equity indexes hover near highs, investors pin hopes on the mythical ability of the 47th president to end the conflict by fiat. In private conversations, the abbreviation TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is being tossed around, with people expecting another dramatic turn toward peace. However, as RBC Capital Markets analysts note, "it takes two for TACO," and Tehran shows no sign of conceding, leaving Trump hostage to the escalation he helped create. "If the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened within three months, the situation will evolve into a macroeconomic problem that will push the world into recession," warns Frederic Lasser of Gunvor.

According to Trafigura CEO Richard Hultum, rich Western countries will be able to "buy" physical security for their consumers at the cost of insane budgetary spending. At the same time, developing countries in Asia and Africa will face collapsing demand and real resource shortages. The allocation of shortages will be markedly unfair. Moreover, even in the most optimistic scenario, the effects on refining will be felt for years.

Amrita Sen, head of analytics at Energy Aspects, emphasizes that even if the strait's throughput is restored to half capacity by the end of May, the market will still irreversibly lose 450 million barrels of diesel and gasoline. Given the lack of spare refining capacity worldwide, this deficit cannot be filled before 2030. The world that grew used to cheap energy is gone; it has been replaced by a reality where fuel becomes a luxury available only to the few.

The Old World chooses autonomy

Despite the war in the Middle East, the European currency is showing remarkable resilience. Ursula von der Leyen openly calls for European consolidation to prevent domination by Washington, Beijing or Ankara. Those words are backed by market sentiment: the euro has recovered to $1.18, posting the second?best performance among G?10 currencies. Investors are buying bullish options en masse, targeting $1.20, and ignoring forecasts of a collapse in European industry. The market increasingly prices in a structural weakening of the dollar, and euro dynamics are now driven less by Fed interest rates than by Brussels' ability to distance itself from unpredictable Trump policy.

The Iranian ricochet

The US military campaign against Iran has produced results that were likely unplanned in the Oval Office. Instead of expected national rallying, Trump faces a deep split in his electorate and a decline in domestic political influence. On the external front, it is even more ironic: the energy crisis triggered by the war has become a powerful catalyst for the "green transition." Seeking to escape dependence on unstable fossil fuels and unpredictable sea routes through Hormuz, countries are accelerating solar and wind deployment. Thus, Trump's attempt to "save the world" by controlling oil has only hastened the day when that oil is no longer needed. Washington risks being left alone with its aircraft carriers in a region that is no longer the planet's energy center, while Europe and China build new autonomous energy systems.

"Absolutely not"

The future head of the US central bank will not be obedient to the president either. The Senate Banking Committee hearings on April 23, 2026, became a moment of truth for Kevin Warsh. The Fed chair nominee, put forward by Donald Trump, faced a blunt question from Senator John Kennedy: would he become a "puppet" of the White House? Warsh's reply was terse and unequivocal: "Absolutely not." He stressed that the independence of monetary policy is not a privilege but a tool for making quality decisions without regard for political distractions.

This statement came under unprecedented pressure from the Oval Office. Just two days earlier, Trump said on CNBC he would be disappointed if the new Fed chair did not immediately slash rates. The president dreams of a cut to 1% this year, but Warsh has shown caution, refusing to give the market "preliminary signals." While Trump demands cheap money, Kevin Warsh focuses on institutional autonomy. At the upcoming meeting on April 28–29, experts almost unanimously expect the rate to be kept in the current 3.5%–3.75% range, which will be the first sign of divergence between the White House's course and the future Fed leadership.

The US dollar

Alongside the financial battles, geopolitics continues to keep the US currency afloat. The dollar index has reached a weekly high. Investors are once again using the dollar as a safe-haven amid the complete lack of progress with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed. Donald Trump has shifted to a strategy of strategic waiting, calling the current ceasefire "open-ended." Washington has taken the position that "the ball is in the opponent's court," waiting for a new peace proposal from Iran. However, for the economy, this pause looks more alarming than reassuring: the ongoing blockade supports high energy prices and fuels inflationary risks.

23 April

23 April, 2:00 / Australia / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 51.0 / actual: 49.8 / forecast: 49.0 / AUD/USD – down

The Australian manufacturing sector in March 2026 moved into stagnation for the first time in five months, slipping to 49.8 points. The main pressure came from:

• a reduction in domestic orders
• a second consecutive drop in output volumes

With no load on production capacities, employment growth has turned into staff cuts, and business confidence collapsed, triggering a sharp drawdown in inventories. The situation is worsened by geopolitics: the conflict in the Middle East has caused major supply chain disruptions and driven input?cost inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high. If the April reading falls to the forecast 49.0 points, it will weaken the Australian dollar.

23 April, 3:30 / Japan / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 53.0 / actual: 51.6 / forecast: 51.2 / USD/JPY – up

Japan's manufacturing PMI for March was revised up to 51.6. However, the indicator showed a clear slowdown from February's four-year high (53.0). Hiring slowed to its weakest pace since the start of 2026 despite firms' attempts to address labor shortages. Inflationary pressure intensified:

• raw material and energy costs reached levels not seen since August 2024
• combined with a weaker yen, this forced manufacturers to raise factory gate prices at record two?year rates

Business caution amid the war in the Middle East cooled business sentiment. If the April index reaches the forecast 51.2 points, the yen will weaken.

23 April, 7:00 / Eurozone / Passenger car registrations in March / prev.: -3.9% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 5.5% / EUR/USD – up

The EU car market in February 2026 showed signs of recovery: passenger car registrations rose 1.4% (to 865,437 units) after a decline in January. Growth was supported by three of the four largest economies:

• Italy – 14.0%
• Spain – 7.5%
• Germany – 3.8%

France, however, recorded a plunge of 14.7%. The electric vehicle (BEV) segment deserves special attention: its market share rose to 18.8%, and registrations jumped 20.6%, especially in Italy and Germany. If March sales growth reaches the forecast 5.5%, it will strengthen the euro.

23 April, 10:30 / Germany / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 50.9 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.3 / EUR/USD – down

German industry in March showed unexpected resilience. The PMI was revised to 52.2 — the highest since May 2022. Order growth was paradoxically driven by customers building inventories amid fears of shortages due to the war in the Middle East. Those same fears caused the worst delivery delays from Asia since July 2022. German manufacturers faced a powerful inflationary shock:

• commodity and energy prices surged to peaks not seen since October 2022
• this sent business expectations to four-month lows

If the April index falls to the forecast 51.3 amid the logistics crisis, the euro will weaken.

23 April, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 50.8 / actual: 51.6 / forecast: 50.7 / EUR/USD – down

The eurozone manufacturing sector in March 2026 showed unexpected strength. The PMI rose to 51.6, recording the strongest rise since mid-2022. Growth came in a paradoxical context: the war in the Middle East caused major logistical disruptions, forcing companies to ramp up production (a 7-month high) and leading to the first rise in order books in a long time. Export orders stabilized, but employment continues to fall. Price pressures remain critical:

• input cost inflation reached peaks seen at the end of 2022
• factory gate prices are rising at the fastest pace in three years

Despite current readings, business confidence is falling under geopolitical strain. If the April index drops to the forecast 50.7 points, the euro will weaken.

23 April, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 51.7 / actual: 51.0 / forecast: 50.2 / GBP/USD – down

UK manufacturing cooled in March 2026 — the PMI fell to 51.0. The outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East destabilized energy markets, forcing companies to cut output for the first time in six months. Nevertheless, the index remains above the psychological 50 mark, and new orders show moderately positive dynamics. The main negative factor was explosive rises in oil and gas costs, which forced about half of the manufacturers to raise prices. Rising uncertainty continues to undermine long-term business optimism. If the April reading falls to the forecast 50.2, the pound will weaken.

23 April, 13:00 / United Kingdom / CBI Industrial Trends Survey (business optimism) for Q2 / prev.: 31 / actual: -19 / forecast: -23 / GBP/USD – down

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey recorded a sharp deterioration in manufacturing sentiment: optimism dropped to -19%, and export prospects are assessed at -12%. Although this is the "least negative" result in the past 18 months, fundamental problems remain: clients are delaying orders and cutting spending. Profitability is being "burned" by:

• high wages
• taxes
• sky-high prices
• Business urgently needs clear government support to offset costs. If the Q2 index hits the forecast -23 points, the pound will weaken.

23 April, 15:30 / Canada / Producer Price Index (annual) for March / prev.: 5.6% / actual: 5.4% / forecast: 6.5% / USD/CAD – down Canada's year-on-year producer price growth in February 2026 slowed to 5.4%, still well above the long?term average of 3.46%. Despite a slight decline from January peaks, industrial inflation remains high, reflecting volatile raw?material and intermediate goods prices. The market expects a sharp acceleration in March. If the figure reaches the forecast 6.5%, it will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

23 April, 15:30 / Canada / Raw materials price growth for March / prev.: 8.0% / actual: 8.6% / forecast: 14.0% / USD/CAD – down

Commodity sector inflation in Canada accelerated to 8.60% in February 2026, more than double the long-term average (3.74%). Commodity price growth remains persistent, though far from pandemic-era highs. This indicator is key for an export?oriented economy and directly pressures monetary policy. If March's reading reaches the forecast 14.0%, the Canadian dollar will strengthen.

23 April, 15:30 / USA / Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March / prev.: 0.20 / actual: -0.11 / forecast: 0.20 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

Economic activity in the Chicago Fed's district unexpectedly turned negative in February 2026, falling to -0.11. The main negative contributions came from:

• manufacturing
• employment

Personal consumption and the housing market showed only symbolic growth. The data point to a local slowdown in economic expansion at the end of winter. If March's report shows a recovery to the forecast 0.20, the US dollar will strengthen.

23 April, 15:30 / USA / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 218k / actual: 207k / forecast: 212k / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The US labor market remains resilient. Initial unemployment claims for the week ending 11 April fell to 207,000 — the largest weekly decline in two months and better than expected. Despite a slight rise in the 4-week moving average and an increase in continuing claims to 1,818,000, overall dynamics point to limited layoffs. If next week's claims rise to the forecast 212,000, the dollar will weaken.

23 April, 16:45 / USA / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 52.3 / forecast: 52.0 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The US manufacturing PMI in March 2026 held at 52.3, confirming sector expansion. Growth was driven by domestic demand and firms building inventories amid the Middle East conflict. Export sales remain pressured by tariffs, and logistics disruptions caused the longest delivery times in 3.5 years. Input cost inflation hit a peak not seen since August 2025, forcing firms to raise factory gate prices at the fastest pace in seven months. If the advance April index falls to the forecast 52.0, the greenback will weaken.

23 April, 18:00 / USA / Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for April (advance) / prev.: 10 / actual: 11 / forecast: 12 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

Manufacturing activity in the Kansas City Fed region continued to rise in March 2026, reaching 11 points. Positive dynamics were seen in:

• durable goods manufacturing (lumber)
• consumer segments (plastics, paper)

An important signal was the recovery of the employment index (7 points vs. -6 in February), although export orders and capital spending remain weak. Firms remain optimistic, expecting further strengthening over the next six months. If the April index rises to the forecast 12 points, the US dollar will strengthen.

Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom fell to -21 points in March 2026, a one-year low. The main source of pessimism was the war with Iran. Petrol prices jumped by 50%, forcing households to sharply cut big?ticket purchase plans and raise their savings rate (up 6 points). The largest drop was in expectations for the country's overall economic prospects over the next 12 months. According to Neil Bellamy of GfK, Britons doubt the national economy's ability to withstand shocks from the Middle East conflict. Nevertheless, a rise in the indicator would strengthen the British pound.

24 April

24 April, 02:30 / Japan / Headline CPI (y/y) for March / prev.: 1.5% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: 1.5% / USD/JPY – down

Japan's headline annual inflation slowed to 1.3% in February 2026, the weakest reading since spring 2022. Deflationary pressure was driven by softer rice prices and government subsidies for:

• electricity (-8.0%)

• gas (-5.1%)

At the same time, inflation in communications (6.8%) and household goods (1.2%) accelerated.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell for the third consecutive month. Although inflation missed forecasts, the yen's status as a safe-haven currency amid the war is supporting the Japanese yen.

24 April, 02:30 / Japan / Core CPI (y/y) for March / prev.: 2.0% / actual: 1.6% / forecast: 1.8% / USD/JPY – down

Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) slowed to 1.6% in February, the weakest gain in four years. The measure fell below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time since March 2022. Despite the slowdown—partly the result of government measures to stabilize living costs—the BoJ keeps its policy rate at 0.75% and says it may tighten if the economic slowdown triggered by the Iran conflict proves temporary. Markets price in the risk of a renewed inflation pickup in March due to higher oil prices, which supports the yen.

24 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Retail sales (y/y) for March / prev.: 4.8% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 1.3% / GBP/USD – down

UK retail sales grew 2.5% y/y in February 2026. While the result beat consensus (2.1%), it marked a sharp slowdown from January's four-year high of 4.8%. Current growth remains above the long-term average (1.90%), but the month-on-month downtrend indicates cooling consumer activity under inflationary pressure. The significant loss of momentum in sales weighs on the pound.

24 April, 11:00 / Germany / Ifo Business Climate Index for April (advance) / prev.: 88.4 / actual: 86.4 / forecast: 85.5 / EUR/USD – down

German business climate deteriorated to 86.4 in March 2026 — the weakest level in 13 months. The sharp escalation in the Middle East hit business expectations, which plunged from 90.2 to 86.0. Current conditions remain at 86.7. Negative sentiment has spread across key sectors:

• industry
• construction
• trade
• services

Ifo President Clemens Fuest said the war with Iran has effectively "frozen" hopes for economic recovery and triggered a spike in uncertainty. If the April index falls to the forecast 85.5, the euro will weaken.

24 April, 15:30 / Canada / Retail sales (m/m) for February / prev.: -0.1% / actual: 1.5% / forecast: 1.3% / USD/CAD – up

Canadian consumer activity showed signs of recovery in January 2026: retail sales rose 1.5% y/y after a slight decline the previous month. Growth remains well below the long?term average (4.63%), reflecting household caution. Markets watch sales dynamics as an indicator of domestic demand resilience. If the March data confirm forecasted growth of 1.3%, amid global uncertainty, this could weaken the Canadian dollar.

4 April, 17:00 / US / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (advance) for April / prev.: 56.6 / actual: 53.3 / forecast: 47.6 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

Consumer sentiment in early April 2026 plunged 11% to a historic low of 47.6. The survey recorded widespread pessimism: 98% of respondents, surveyed before news of the temporary ceasefire, linked their fears to:

• the Iran conflict
• rising prices
• asset depreciation One-year business activity expectations collapsed by 20%, and willingness to buy cars and homes reached critically low levels. Such a sharp drop in consumer confidence tends to weaken the US dollar.

24 April, 17:00 / USA / University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (advance) for April / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.8% / forecast: 4.8% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up One?year inflation expectations in April 2026 jumped to 4.8% — the largest monthly rise in a year. Five?year expectations also hit a five-month high at 3.4%. The rise is directly linked to the energy shock and supply instability. This data is a warning sign for the Fed: if expectations remain elevated, it may require keeping policy tight for longer. If the 4.8% expectation is confirmed in the final reading, the dollar will strengthen.

23 April, 18:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD 24 April, 11:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Martin Schlegel (Swiss National Bank) / USD/CHF, EUR/USD

Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled this week. Their comments usually trigger volatility in FX markets as they can signal future policy intentions.

The wave situation on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke through six previous peaks, while the new downward wave has not come close to the last low. A two-week truce between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish." In the near future, the geopolitical backdrop may worsen again, which would give the bears more strength and confidence. However, to break the bullish trend, two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low will be required.

On Wednesday, there was no economic data, but news continued to come from the White House and the Middle East throughout the day. Iran once again rejected Washington's proposal to hold a second round of negotiations, while Donald Trump decided to extend the truce indefinitely and later stated that the war in Iran has no deadline. The U.S. president believes that setting time frames would only complicate already difficult relations with Iran, and there is no need to rush negotiations with Tehran. Trump confirmed that the blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place until the parties to the conflict are able to sign an agreement. Earlier, the U.S. president refused to lift the blockade, believing that doing so would make reaching an agreement impossible. Iran has not yet responded to Trump's latest statements, and currency traders also prefer to wait for more significant information than "we will wait." Nevertheless, bearish traders are currently in a more favorable position, as the conflict is once again shifting away from a path toward truce and back toward escalation.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1849, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and declined toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. Consolidation below 1.1706 would allow traders to expect continued decline toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1617. A rebound from 1.1706 would favor the euro and lead to some growth toward 1.1778. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 13,693 long positions and closed 19,866 short positions. Over the past seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has evaporated. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 214,000, while short positions stand at 188,000. Two months ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has only been paused, not ended. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. The dollar can still expect to benefit from this situation.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – Manufacturing PMI (07:30 UTC).
• Germany – Services PMI (07:30 UTC).
• Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC).
• U.S. – Services PMI (13:45 UTC).

On April 23, the economic calendar contains seven entries, with the greatest interest focused on the Eurozone PMIs. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday is again expected to be weak.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.1824 level on the hourly chart and after consolidation below 1.1745. The current target is 1.1666. I recommend buying on a rebound from 1.1666 with a target of 1.1745. Trader activity has been low in recent days.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave situation remains "bullish." The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave the bears an almost complete advantage in the market for two months, then for two weeks the geopolitical backdrop supported the bulls. At present, the situation in the Middle East is contradictory, so traders are in a pause mode. To break the "bullish" trend, two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low are required.

The news background on Wednesday was quite interesting, but traders continue to remain calm and are not rushing into action. Yesterday it became known that the main inflation indicator in the UK rose only to 3.3% year-on-year in March. On the one hand, traders expected exactly this figure; on the other hand, inflation could have accelerated much more strongly. If the consumer price index had risen to 3.5% or higher, the Bank of England might already have decided at its next meeting to tighten monetary policy, since in that case inflation would exceed the target level by almost twice. However, inflation rose only slightly, while core inflation actually declined. Therefore, at the next MPC meeting, a decision to keep monetary policy parameters unchanged is likely. A day earlier, the UK unemployment rate was released, showing a decline from 5.2% to 4.9%. Again, it could have been much worse. No one expected such a sharp drop in unemployment, but this week traders still do not intend to pay attention to the economic background. The pound is standing still.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the downward trend channel, which allows us to expect a full-fledged trend. After a "bearish" divergence formed on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3540. However, the quotes then got stuck between the levels of 1.3482 and 1.3540. The graphical picture on the hourly chart is currently clearer, so it is advisable to rely on it. No new emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,603, while short positions rose by 5,973. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively as follows: 55,000 versus 110,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, which led to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full ceasefire is still far away, and the war could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could become even stronger.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

• UK – Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC).
• UK – Services PMI (08:30 UTC).
• US – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).
• US – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC).
• US – Services PMI (13:45 UTC).

On April 23, the economic calendar contains five entries which, unfortunately, may also be ignored, just like all the reports this week. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may again be extremely weak.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3513–1.3539 level, with a target of 1.3428–1.3437. Buying is possible if there is a consolidation above the 1.3513–1.3539 level, with a target of 1.3596–1.3620.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012 to 1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

S&P 500 and global equity index performance

The armed conflict in the Middle East is not over, but investors are convinced that its worst is behind us. The White House has extended the ceasefire indefinitely. Donald Trump says he will not return immediately to bombing. That is already seen as good news.

When the US president sends mixed signals, markets are left guessing. Will talks happen, or were they invented? Will Trump order mass strikes, or will he back down? In such circumstances, investors naturally revert to familiar patterns — for example, the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. The longer a conflict drags on, the more investors adapt.

It is quite possible that the same will happen this time. The scale of supply loss may differ, but demand destruction from high oil prices, sales from strategic reserves, the search for workaround routes, and the use of Russian oil currently on tankers smooth out the negative impact. Over time, markets will accommodate the geopolitical factor and get back to their core drivers — expectations for strong corporate earnings or the promise of AI technology.

Tech returned to favor after falling out of fashion earlier in the year. A few impressive earnings reports, and investors are ready to pile back into Big Tech. Of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q1 results so far, 80% beat earnings estimates. Wall Street analysts still expect double-digit EPS growth. So why not buy the dip?

Dynamics of US stock indices

Markets feared that a spike in oil to record levels would trigger a global recession. Yet Brent is far from the highs seen at the start of the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, emerging-market oil inventories have so far been sufficient to avert the worst-case outcome.

Yes, the worst case can still play out — especially with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — but new workaround routes will emerge, and additional releases from strategic reserves are likely.

Technically, the S&P 500 opened with a gap up on the daily chart. The broad index moved higher with conviction and appears ready to re-establish the uptrend. In these conditions, it makes sense to orient toward long positions with targets around 7,200 and 7,300.