U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline after reaching multi-year highs. This, combined with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at next week's meeting, forces dollar buyers to take a cautious stance. At the same time, traders price in roughly a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. Inflation risks tied to higher oil prices, along with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, support the dollar as a safe-haven currency and limit DXY's downside.

On the Middle East situation: Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is ready to give diplomacy another chance if the U.S. demonstrates a sincere interest in finding a settlement. The New York Times reported that the U.S. and Israel have prepared plans for a possible new series of strikes on Iran that could follow the U.S. midterm elections. Under these conditions, market participants should exercise caution when opening new short positions on the dollar index (DXY).

Traders should also adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of next week's key events. Pay particular attention to the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which concludes on October 28. Additional guidance may come from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the preliminary U.S. Q3 GDP estimate, both due next Thursday. Those releases could materially affect Fed policy expectations and give DXY a directional impulse.

In the short term, the technical picture does not reassure bears, as the index remains above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-period SMA, though it has slipped slightly below the 20-day SMA. To resume an uptrend, the index needs to reclaim and hold above the 20-day SMA. A clear break above that level would open the door to further gains and tests of higher levels. On the downside, nearest support is at 101.40, with the 50-day EMA near 101.00 below that. Oscillators remain positive for now, and bulls are not ready to surrender.

The table below shows the dollar's performance versus major currencies over the past seven days. The largest appreciation was versus the Japanese yen.

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair moved into a "bullish" consolidation phase and trades just below the 1.3400 mark, near a new monthly high set during the day.

The fundamental backdrop remains favorable for pound buyers, setting up continued upward movement, as seen over the past week.

The U.S. dollar is struggling to attract buyers and remains near three-week lows set Tuesday, amid falling U.S. government bond yields.

By contrast, the British pound is supported by rising expectations of a Bank of England rate hike in November. An additional factor was an acceleration in UK annual consumer-price inflation in September to an 11-month high. This creates a favorable background for GBP/USD's rise and supports a positive outlook for the pair.

At the same time, a geopolitical risk premium remains due to the threat of further escalation in the Middle East. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is ready to give diplomacy another chance if it receives convincing evidence of a sincere U.S. desire for a fair settlement. In addition, The New York Times reported that the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for a possible new series of strikes on Iran that could be carried out after the U.S. midterm elections.

These circumstances support high oil prices, amplify inflationary risks, and raise expectations of imminent further tightening by the Federal Reserve.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders assess the probability of a Fed rate hike in December at roughly 90%. This factor limits the dollar's downside potential as a traditional safe haven and prevents market participants from aggressively opening new long positions in GBP/USD.

The table below shows the percentage change of the British pound against major world currencies over the past 7 days. The pound showed the best performance versus the US dollar.

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD trades above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). This indicates a predominantly neutral short-term bias while also suggesting renewed upside and the formation of a base above this support, the 100-day SMA. The 200-day SMA now represents strong resistance. A break above that level would allow bulls to gain better control of the market. Oscillators are mixed so far, but the relative strength index is positive, indicating a bullish tilt.

The classic logic "yields fall — gold rises" broke today. 10-year Treasuries fell below 5%, the dollar weakened, oil retreated from peaks — yet gold stubbornly moves down toward 4000.00. The reason isn't the rates themselves, but why they are falling.

What's happening

10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell below 5%, reaching about a one-month low. The dollar index (USDX) eased to 101.40, giving back part of its recent rally. WTI retreated from five-week highs to around $99, and Brent to about $108. This seems like an ideal setup for gold to recover.

But XAU/USD trades near 4045.00, marking a low not seen since early August. Silver fell below 56.00, losing roughly 5% on the day.

Why gold does not react to falling yields

Reason one: yields are falling for the "wrong" reason. Yields are falling not because the market anticipates Federal Reserve easing, but because investors are fleeing into bonds amid a sell-off in AI stocks and fears of credit stress in the tech sector. When the flight to quality is driven by fear of credit stress rather than hope for rate cuts, gold receives no support — investors buy Treasuries, not the metal.

Reason two: the oil shock has not eased. Despite the pullback from peaks, oil remains above $99, and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi infrastructure persist. Once oil rises again, inflation expectations will return and markets will re-price a December Fed hike, currently assessed at about 76–90%. For gold, that means any recovery will meet fresh selling pressure.

Reason three: the Fed gives no reason for a turn. The market expects the Fed to hold rates at the October 27–28 meeting, but a December hike remains the base case. While that threat hangs over the market, gold cannot sustainably rally even if yields fall temporarily.

Where gold may head next

• Immediate support: 4040.00–4030.00. If price holds this zone, a bounce to 4130.00–4137.00 (200-EMA on the hourly chart) is possible.
• Critical support: 4000.00. A break of this level would open the way to 3900.00 and below. After 3900.00, 3600.00 can be considered the next major target.
• Resistance: 4130.00–4140.00 — the first zone where sellers are likely to return. Above that — 4200.00–4210.00 (200-EMA on H4) and 4235.00 (50-EMA on D1).

Recommendations

Do not buy the "dip" without confirmation. Gold has fallen for the fourth session in a row, and there are no reversal signals yet — neither technical (a close above resistance) nor fundamental (Fed rhetoric easing or a sustained drop in oil). Buying in the middle of a falling range is the most expensive way to test a reversal hypothesis.

For short-term trading: the 4040.00–4030.00 zone may provide a bounce to 4130.00, but place a strict stop below 4000.00. If price doesn't bounce from this zone within one to two sessions, that's a sign of weakness.

For medium-term investors: wait for either a close above 4150.00 (a signal that buyers are regaining control) or a pullback to 4000.00–4020.00 with subsequent confirmation of support. The October 28 FOMC meeting is the key catalyst: if the Fed signals a December pause, gold will get a powerful impulse to recover. If it confirms a hawkish stance, pressure will continue.

The EUR/USD pair showed some upward movement on only three days last week, then remained largely flat for several days before declining again today. At this point, it is too early to say that the bearish advance has resumed, as the pair's price may recover before the end of the day. However, after the latest bearish impulse ended, the bulls failed to produce even a corrective pullback. Imbalance 24 is clearly visible on the chart, and a move to this pattern would be logical even if the bears have no intention of launching another advance. Nevertheless, the bulls have been unable to push the euro up to this pattern.

Overall, the reasons for another decline in the euro are not difficult to find. They can simply be selected from a list: the crisis in France, unrest and strikes in many European countries, FOMC monetary policy tightening, rising geopolitical tensions, and so on. The last factor deserves a closer look. This week, reports emerged that the war in Iran could resume immediately after the US midterm elections, and Donald Trump has already begun developing plans for new strikes in coordination with Israel. It is therefore possible that the market is preparing for another war and seeking to distance itself from the European Union, which is currently engulfed in turmoil, as well as from its currency.

Over the past two weeks, no FOMC member has spoken in favor of monetary policy tightening in October. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly decide to leave interest rates unchanged next week. In that case, the dollar's gains are not being driven by Fed monetary policy.

At this point, it is also too early to say that the euro's decline has been halted and reversed. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price may react to it, generating a new sell signal. The bears have advanced too far, and stopping them will now be difficult. Although the market spent more than a month largely ignoring the fundamental factors supporting the euro, this does not mean the euro will now rise continuously. First, Imbalance 24 must be invalidated, and the bulls must form their own bullish patterns. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, but the bulls continue to demonstrate weakness and a lack of momentum.

In September, the FOMC not only raised interest rates but also signaled its willingness to continue tightening policy. This was enough to trigger a large-scale bearish advance. However, even after the Fed's September tightening and the possibility of further tightening in December, I do not believe that the euro has received any positive news during this period. The market is simply ignoring most of it.

Overall, in my view, the fundamental backdrop continues to favor the bulls. Despite the Fed's more hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. The European Union also faces problems, but that is precisely the point: problems exist everywhere, yet only the euro is falling. Both central banks are tightening monetary policy, but only the dollar is rising. Nevertheless, I do not recommend expecting the euro to rise before bullish signals emerge. Buying the euro in advance is not advisable either.

The current technical picture indicates that the bearish impulse remains intact, with no clear signs of a reversal. The only relevant pattern at present is Imbalance 24, which may be revisited soon, as a corrective pullback has finally begun. The bulls' only current opportunity lies in a liquidity sweep below the 1.1066 low. However, opening long positions requires more than just a liquidity sweep.

There was no significant economic news on Thursday, which explains the low level of trading activity. The US dollar has begun rising again, but for now, the hope is that this will not turn into another bearish advance without a clear fundamental catalyst.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to attack in 2026. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I see no substantial factors supporting the US currency, despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical risks and the tense situation in Europe are currently weighing on the euro.

Economic Calendar for the US and the European Union

• Germany – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (07:30 UTC).
• Germany – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (07:30 UTC).
• European Union – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC).
• United States – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).
• United States – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).

On October 23, the economic calendar contains six releases, but traders are currently managing perfectly well without economic data. The influence of economic releases on market sentiment may be limited on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has been undergoing a corrective pause for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears eight months ago, but the trend itself, which has lasted four years, cannot be considered invalidated or complete.

The bulls may resume their advance before the end of the year, but their only realistic opportunity at present is the 1.1066 low established in June last year. The bears received a new sell signal at Imbalance 19. At this point, existing short positions should be kept open. A new sell signal may form at Imbalance 24. Since a further corrective pullback remains possible, it would be prudent to take partial profits on short positions.

The GBP/USD pair began rising after sweeping liquidity below the most recent bearish swing and has since gained 260 points. Over the past five days, the pound has posted a strong advance, invalidating Imbalance 30, which had failed to produce a convincing reaction. This is the first step toward the formation of a bullish trend. In addition, a bullish Order Block and bullish Imbalance 31 have formed. In my view, the technical picture is rapidly turning bullish.

As for the fundamental backdrop, it has become much more favorable for the pound this week. Unemployment has declined, inflation has risen, and the Bank of England can no longer delay raising interest rates. The market has yet to price in any monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England, unlike the Federal Reserve's tightening, which has already been more than fully priced in. I do not see what could prevent the bulls from advancing. Imbalance 29 halted their advance. As expected, the pattern did trigger a reaction, so a corrective pullback may now begin. This would be an excellent development for the bulls, as it could allow one of the two bullish patterns to play out and generate buy signals.

An important factor for the pound's outlook is that traders expect the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy three times, while the Federal Reserve is expected to tighten only once or, at most, twice. The dot plot also points to one policy tightening, and the latest FOMC minutes confirmed that most central bank policymakers expect only one rate hike. Of course, it is impossible to know how events will unfold in 2027, but this is the current consensus forecast. As a result, the Bank of England may ultimately raise interest rates more aggressively than the Federal Reserve in the coming months, which is unlikely to support further gains in the US dollar. The dollar has already benefited fully from expectations of Fed tightening; the market may now begin pricing in the Bank of England's tightening instead.

If the Fed had not raised interest rates in September and signaled its intention to continue tightening monetary policy, the US dollar would likely have started declining a month ago. I still expect the dollar to weaken. GBP/USD has reversed in favor of the pound, and the next step is for bullish signals to emerge, allowing traders to open long positions. In my view, the pound's long-term outlook remains positive.

Do the bears have any further room to advance? In my view, not much. Over the past month and a half to two months, the bears seem to have achieved the impossible by pushing the dollar to levels that are exceptionally high by recent standards. It is worth remembering that the market has had reasons to buy the dollar recently, but there have also been reasons for the pound to rise that traders have simply overlooked. A reversal in the opposite direction may now begin, and this move would be more fundamentally justified than the preceding decline.

There was no significant economic news on Thursday. Today, GBP/USD reacted to Imbalance 29, explaining the decline in the pair's exchange rate during the day. Tomorrow, business activity indices will be released in the UK and the US, followed by an FOMC meeting next week. The pound has time for a corrective pullback.

Overall, the fundamental outlook continues to favor a weaker US dollar in the long term, and further depreciation is expected. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my outlook. Geopolitical tensions reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most acute phase. The outlook for future FOMC monetary policy remains uncertain, while the market continues to anticipate tightening. This is the main reason the bears remain optimistic. However, traders are still overlooking the possibility of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England. Inflation is rising in the UK, as it is around the world, leaving the Bank of England with little choice but to raise interest rates as well.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK

• European Union – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC).
• United States – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).
• United States – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).

On October 23, the economic calendar contains four releases, with the UK reports being particularly noteworthy. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the first half of Friday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Bears have controlled the market in recent weeks, but the broader range is clearly visible on the daily chart. The liquidity sweep below the swing low formed on May 1 triggered a decline within the horizontal range. However, liquidity was also swept below the June lows, allowing the bulls to regain the initiative.

Therefore, I believe the short-term technical picture has now turned bullish. For traders, this means that in the near term, they should either maintain existing long positions or look for new buying opportunities. Potential setups may emerge at the Order Block or Imbalance 31. However, a corrective pullback will be needed before new signals can form. The pound's target is near the upper boundary of the range at 1.3670. The reaction to Imbalance 29 may trigger the corrective pullback needed for this scenario.

The euro is trading around 1.1207, pulling back after having attempted on several occasions since October 14 to break above the downtrend channel that has been forming since early October.

Since the European session, the EUR/USD pair has entered a strong downtrend, falling below the 0/8 Murray level and below the 21-period moving average. Therefore, we believe the pair could face downward pressure in the coming days, and a return to the 1.1108 level is expected. If the downward momentum persists, the euro could even fall toward the psychological level of 1.10.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is overbought, and technically, the 1.1250 area represents strong resistance; therefore, if a pullback occurs toward 1.1235 or 1.1250, it could be interpreted as a signal to open short positions.

The Eagle indicator has reached the 95-point zone, suggesting that the euro could fall in the coming days. Therefore, we will look for an opportunity to open short positions. If the price consolidates below the Murray 0/8 level, it will be interpreted as a signal to sell down to the lower band of the bearish channel, at 1.11.

Tehran says it will no longer be confined to a defensive posture. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has officially announced a move to a harder, offensive, and asymmetric strategy. Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said the doctrine of purely retaliatory strikes is over: any potential aggressor will face preventive strikes and full-scale operations intended to demonstrate Iran's resolve and military capability.

Rhetoric has been matched by action. Tankers and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf have been targeted, and waters near the Strait of Hormuz have been mined. Pro-Iranian Houthi forces have also stepped up an aggressive campaign against Saudi Arabia, including regular attacks on the kingdom's energy infrastructure and a recent strike on Dammam international airport. Follow the link for more details.

Targeting Tehran and Europe's gas impasse

Donald Trump has flatly rejected talks with Iran and has hinted at decisive actions against Tehran likely to be considered after the midterm elections. The US president says Iran's economy and military capacity are already weakened and credits a tougher US line with preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon. That said, the White House is unlikely to risk a direct escalation before voters go to the polls, though its rhetoric makes clear it will not seek a diplomatic compromise with Tehran.

Meanwhile, Europe is edging toward a severe energy crisis, driven less by a global LNG shortage than by strategic missteps and fierce competition with Asia. Physically, LNG supplies exist, but record prices reflect a failed policy play: hoping for cheaper fuel, Europeans underfilled storage, which now sits at only about 72% ahead of winter. China's emergency buying amid its coal crisis exacerbated the squeeze. The result has been a price war between Europe and Asia for every tanker, and a harsh winter will be an extreme stress test for European economies. Follow the link for more details.

When rules break: why markets behave illogically

The classic playbook — yields down, stocks up — is not working today. Investors are piling into bonds while simultaneously selling equities, gold, and silver. The yen is strengthening. The driver is not Fed sentiment but a toxic mix of an oil shock (Brent has pierced $109 after an attack on Saudi Aramco) and a French debt crisis (OAT yields at levels not seen since 2002). The paradox is that higher oil boosts inflation expectations, increases the odds of a December Fed hike, and makes real-return assets like metals less attractive despite their safe-haven status.

Adding to the pressure are disappointing AI-related earnings. Lam Research plunged by 8.5%, IBM lost 5.4%, and Tesla dropped by nearly 5% after lowering its capex outlook. The yen rallied to about 156.80 per dollar as the Bank of Japan hinted at normalization in December. This is not a classic broad risk-off but a US- and Europe-centered stress event. So long as oil hovers around $110 and the French spread remains unstable, markets will stay fragile and finely balanced. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting on October 27–28 for any signal about a December rate move. Follow the link for more details.

Gold is trading around $4,073, rebounding after reaching 0/8 Murray and showing a positive signal, as the $4,060 area represents strong support.

Since Wednesday's US trading session, gold has been under downward pressure, falling below the 1/8 Murray level around 4,140 until reaching the $4,153 area—around the 0/8 Murray level—and showing a slight recovery.

Technically, we could expect gold to rebound above $4,060 until it reaches the upper band of the downtrend channel or the 21 SMA around $4,120.

Should a bullish scenario occur, we could buy the XAU/USD pair above $4,060 with targets at 4,123. Although the Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, this brief recovery could be seen as a sign that the downtrend is resuming, and we believe that in the short term, gold could continue to fall until it reaches the psychological level of $4,000 and might even reach the -1/8 Murray level around $3,984.

Conversely, if gold breaks decisively above the downtrend channel and consolidates above $4,123, this could be seen as a positive signal to continue buying, with targets at the 200 EMA around 4,211; ultimately, we believe it could reach the 3/8 Murray level around $4,296.

Our outlook for the coming days is to buy above 4,060, always with moderate risk and only until the price reaches the upper band of the downtrend channel. In this zone, we should exercise caution, as a technical correction or a breakout from the downtrend channel could occur. Once this happens, we can then decide whether to buy or sell gold.

Bitcoin is trading around $81,609 within the downtrend channel that has been forming since September 23 and is showing a negative signal after reaching the upper band of the uptrend channel around $84,700.

Yesterday, during the US trading session, we observed this sharp move in Bitcoin and noted that the cryptocurrency faced strong resistance at the upper band of the downtrend channel. Technically, Bitcoin has held at this level, and since then, the trend has reversed, leading to a sharp decline.

On the H4 chart, we can see that Bitcoin is trading below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA, which leads us to believe it could continue falling until it reaches the 6/8 Murray level and could ultimately reach the lower band of the downtrend channel, located around $78,750.

If Bitcoin settles below the 6/8 Murray level in the coming days—a zone that has historically served as a strong support level, allowing Bitcoin to continue rising on previous occasions—a technical rebound above this zone could be seen as a buy signal.

Conversely, a decisive break below the uptrend channel formed since October 13 could accelerate Bitcoin's downward movement, and we could even expect it to reach the 5/8 Murray level around $78,125.

The British pound is trading around 1.1368, pulling back from Thursday's European session and falling below 4/8 of Murray; technically, we could see that the British pound has reached overbought levels.

If the British pound falls below the 3/8 Murray level and below the 21SMA, this could be considered a negative signal, and we could expect a decline toward the 200 EMA at 1.3328. If the GBP falls even below this zone, we could expect a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3250.

Since hitting its low on October 13 around 1.3136, the British pound has rebounded with a strong upward move, reaching the 1.3420 area. Technically, it has reached overbought levels, so we believe it could come under downward pressure in the coming days.

An opportunity to take short positions could be to wait for a pullback toward 1.3427 or for the British pound to fall below 1.3360; both levels could offer a selling opportunity in the coming days.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels, and the British pound's price has reached the 4/8 Murray zone—which represents a strong resistance zone—so it could come under downward pressure in the coming days.

The price test at 157.30 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, the dollar was not sold, and the downward move was missed.

In the second half of the day, US economic data will remain the main driver for USD/JPY. Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 200,000, compared with 199,000 in the previous report. The market recorded exactly the same figure on October 15. This indicator measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and provides an early indication of whether a wave of layoffs has begun in the economy. Analysts expect the Leading Economic Indicators Index for September to decline by 0.2%, following a decrease of 0.1%, while the previous reading stood at 99.5 points. The index combines around ten leading indicators and shows the likely direction of the economy over the coming months. Strong US data would clearly reinforce expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy.

As for currency intervention, the most recent coordinated actions by Japan and the United States took place on July 31. The market currently estimates the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its October 30 meeting at around 25%. Trade remains a weak spot: the trade deficit for September reached £704.0 billion, compared with a forecast of £260.0 billion and a previous figure of £801.1 billion. If US data are strong, USD/JPY may recover some of its losses. However, the risk of further statements and actions by Japanese authorities is likely to prevent the dollar from extending its gains confidently.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: USD/JPY can be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around 157.11 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of 157.68 (the thick green line on the chart). Near 157.68, the long position will be closed and a short position opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. Further gains in the pair are possible today, but the upward potential remains limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 156.79 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 157.11 and 157.68 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: USD/JPY can be sold today after the price breaks below 156.79 (the red line on the chart), potentially triggering a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 156.18, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline further.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 157.11 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the levels of 156.79 and 156.18 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when deciding whether to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3402 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points.

However, the UK manufacturing sector quickly delivered disappointing news at the worst possible time for the pound. The October order balance came in at -32, compared with analysts' expectations of -20 and the previous month's reading of -9. This indicator measures business managers' sentiment and provides an early indication of the direction of industrial output ahead of official statistics, which is why the market monitors it closely. The report revealed an even more mixed picture in its details. New orders continued to decline in October, although at the slowest pace since April 2025, while weakness affected both domestic and external demand. Output fell over the three months to October, particularly in the food and chemical industries and the fabricated metals sector. As long as manufacturing data remain weak and the US dollar receives support from US economic releases, the pound is likely to struggle to maintain its recent gains.

The focus will now shift to US economic data. Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 200,000, compared with the previous reading of 199,000. This indicator measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week and is considered a timely gauge of labor market conditions. The second release will be the Leading Economic Indicators Index for September. It combines data on orders, building permits, sentiment, and other factors to provide an outlook for the economy over the coming months. The index is expected to decline by 0.2%, following a decrease of 0.1%, from the previous level of 99.5 points. The pound is likely to hold its ground only if US data are weak. Stronger-than-expected figures would likely force the currency to surrender another portion of its weekly gains.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3384 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3416 (the thick green line on the chart). Near 1.3416, the long position will be closed and a short position opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. Further gains in the pound today can be expected only if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3363 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3384 and 1.3416 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3363 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3331, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline further.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3384 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the next levels of 1.3363 and 1.3331 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1239 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1218.

With no significant eurozone economic data available, the euro was left exposed to geopolitical developments and declined against the US dollar. The Middle East has delivered several unsettling developments in recent days, and these are driving market sentiment today. In the morning, Iranian journalists reported that aircraft were being evacuated from Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. Reports subsequently emerged that US military personnel and diplomats were secretly leaving the region. Meanwhile, Tehran is preparing for a possible attack by the United States and Israel and has described Washington's diplomatic efforts as insincere. This situation is putting pressure on the euro through several channels. High energy prices are slowing the region's economy and accelerating inflation, while heightened uncertainty is encouraging investors to buy the US dollar. As long as tensions surrounding Iran remain high, the euro is likely to react to every new report and is unlikely to achieve a sustained recovery.

US economic data will be released in the second half of the day. Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 200,000, compared with the previous reading of 199,000. This indicator measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week and therefore serves as an early signal of whether businesses are beginning to reduce their workforces. Low readings indicate a resilient labor market, which, in turn, reinforces expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy and supports the dollar. The second release will be the Leading Economic Indicators Index, forecast at -0.2%, compared with the previous reading of -0.1% and a previous index level of 99.5 points. This composite index indicates the likely direction of the US economy over the coming months. A modest deterioration is unlikely to alarm the market, but it is also unlikely to provide meaningful support for the euro. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and US economic data, EUR/USD is likely to remain under pressure. For buyers of the single currency to achieve a sustained recovery, either weaker-than-expected US data or positive developments in the Middle East will be needed.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought if the price reaches around 1.1226 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1250. At 1.1250, the plan is to close the position and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected if positive news emerges regarding Iran and the United States. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1209 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1226 and 1.1250 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1209 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1175, where the position will be closed and a reverse trade opened immediately by buying the euro, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Selling pressure could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline further.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1226 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the next levels of 1.1209 and 1.1175 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure, with attempts to recover proving unsuccessful, as it trades below the $4,100 level.

The US dollar remains under pressure following recent statements by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, who indicated that there is no urgent need to raise interest rates at the October 27–28 meeting. At the same time, US Treasury yields continue to decline after reaching multi-year highs, limiting the dollar's upward potential and providing some support for the precious metal.

Meanwhile, US inflation data released last week strengthened expectations of a near-term tightening of Fed policy. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants assign a 90% probability to the US central bank raising borrowing costs in December. Furthermore, persistent inflation risks, exacerbated by volatile oil prices, leave room for further monetary policy tightening by the Fed. This continues to weigh on gold. At the same time, geopolitical tensions could limit the decline in the US dollar, which serves as a safe-haven asset, and constrain gains in precious metal prices.

Commenting on recent developments in the Middle East, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that Tehran remains open to diplomatic engagement but is also prepared to defend itself. According to Araghchi, there is currently little reason to expect progress, as the United States has not demonstrated a willingness to reach a mutual understanding. In addition, The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel had prepared plans for a short but intensive military operation against Iran following the US midterm elections. This factor supports the US dollar bulls.

Meanwhile, XAU/USD appears to have consolidated below the psychologically important $4,100 level, increasing the risk of further declines.

Today, Thursday, traders should wait for the release of US initial jobless claims data and the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings on Friday to identify better trading opportunities. These releases could provide a fresh catalyst for XAU/USD. However, the main focus should remain on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for next week.

From a technical perspective, the daily XAU/USD chart retains a bearish outlook, with prices trading below all key moving averages. Oscillators are in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Support is provided by October's low at $4,065. Resistance near $4,155, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is located, is preventing the bulls from gaining an opportunity to extend the recovery.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous high. Following the FOMC meeting in September, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US dollar, while other factors remain largely irrelevant for now. The bears have strong momentum, which is also helping the dollar appreciate.

There was no significant economic news on Wednesday, and none is expected today, Thursday. The market is gradually preparing for next week, when central banks in the European Union and the United States will hold their meetings. Although neither central bank is likely to raise interest rates, the market is not rushing to draw conclusions or open new positions. The bears continue to maintain control of the pair, while the bulls have so far been unable to counter them. The only notable events remaining this week are the business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors in the United States, Germany, and the European Union, which will be released tomorrow. The US indices can largely be disregarded, as more important ISM indices are published at the beginning of each month, and traders are accustomed to using them as their primary reference. The European and German indices, however, could help the euro break out of its current stagnation. Nevertheless, all six indices are currently above the critically important 50.0 threshold, and no significant changes are expected in October.

On the 4-hour chart, following the formation of a fifth bullish divergence, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and rose toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1221. A consolidation above this level would open the way for a rise toward 1.1325. A consolidation below 1.1221 would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1088. No developing divergences are currently visible.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 20,091 Long positions and opened 18,150 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, compared with 360,000 Short positions. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributed to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's determination to bring inflation down. The market continues to believe that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any available means.

Overall, major market participants remain strongly interested in the euro over the long term. Naturally, global events of various kinds—which have been abundant in recent years—influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of events that could not have been anticipated in advance. As a result, traders have little choice but to adapt to the changing environment as events unfold.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• United States – Change in Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

On October 22, the economic calendar contains just one event, which traders are unlikely to pay much attention to. Economic news is not expected to influence market sentiment on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Buying the pair is possible following a rebound from 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. Selling is possible if the pair closes below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target. The 1.1220 level has not performed particularly well in recent days, and the signals forming around it have been weak.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

The market situation has turned bullish. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the new upward wave has also broken above the previous high. Thus, the bulls have temporarily taken the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Perhaps the time has now come for a bullish advance.

The news background on Wednesday allowed the bulls to continue their advance. The UK Consumer Price Index rose more than traders had expected. Core inflation also exceeded expectations. As a result, the market is now more confident that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in early November. This would be the Bank of England's first monetary policy tightening in several years and could provide even stronger support for the bulls, especially considering how long they have remained inactive. The current week has been particularly favorable for the pound. Therefore, graphic signals can be used for trading during the final two days of the week. A corrective pullback is possible, but it should not be assumed that one will begin simply because the pound has recently recorded substantial gains. The bears are not all-powerful, and the daily chart clearly shows a trading range, a liquidity sweep on the buy side, the formation of bullish patterns, and the invalidation of bearish patterns. Thus, the upward movement may continue over the coming weeks. The dollar, meanwhile, will find it difficult to strengthen further, as the market has already priced in several FOMC interest rate hikes.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has risen to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and a potential decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348. A consolidation above 1.3409 would increase the likelihood of further gains toward the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. Speculators reduced their Long positions by 1,074, while Short positions increased by 8,279. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 44,000 versus 151,000, respectively. The bears are once again increasing their advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but it is now open to question because the news background has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound remains unconvincing. However, in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward a more peaceful outlook, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. It is also uncertain whether they will resume in the near future.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (10:50 UTC).
• United States – Change in Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

On October 22, the economic calendar contains two events, one of which is Andrew Bailey's speech. Economic news may influence market sentiment on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible following a rebound from 1.3404 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3342. Buying is possible if the hourly candle closes above 1.3404, with targets at 1.3454–1.3469.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

On the lower timeframe (top chart), an impulsive wave sequence continues to develop, which may belong to wave E on the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how much further it rises. The anticipated wave 5 of E has either been completed or is close to completion. In any case, the current wave structure suggests that the formation of the downward wave sequence is nearing its end on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have led to a strong appreciation of the US dollar, but the number of new factors supporting further dollar strength is steadily declining.

The EUR/USD exchange rate remained virtually unchanged on Wednesday. Market activity has been very low this week, and there has been virtually no significant news from the European Union or the United States. By and large, the most interesting news has come from the United Kingdom, where the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% and inflation rose to 3.5%. In the first case, forecasts had been more pessimistic, while in the second, they had been more optimistic. Both reports favored the British pound, which is why the pound is rising while the euro is not.

As previously stated, the euro's current price levels are not considered fair. Moreover, the wave count indicates that the trend should transition to an upward segment on both timeframes. It is also worth noting that the ECB could raise interest rates three times this year, unlike the Federal Reserve and even the Bank of England. Therefore, in this assessment, the euro has supportive news factors. However, market participants either do not recognize them or are unwilling to acknowledge them.

There were no significant events in the United States or the European Union on Wednesday or Thursday. The only hope is for Friday, when October business activity indices will be released in many countries around the world. These reports are not expected to determine the direction of EUR/USD. It is worth recalling that over the past month alone, traders have largely ignored disappointing US labor market and unemployment reports. They have also paid little attention to the ECB's monetary policy tightening. Consequently, business activity indices are not a priority for traders. The euro remains under pressure from France's budget crisis, mass unrest in EU countries, and a significant outflow of capital from the EU bond market. The euro may remain under market pressure until these issues are resolved.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the broader corrective trend segment A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. In this assessment, the current period presents a favorable opportunity not only to buy the euro but also to anticipate the development of a full-fledged upward trend segment. According to the higher timeframe, the euro is expected to rise to at least the 17th–18th levels. The failed attempt to break above 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (bottom chart, higher timeframe), also indicates that the market may be preparing for a move higher.

On the higher timeframe, the downward trend segment has taken the form of A-B-C-D-E. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, but this pattern may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

The main principles of this analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in the expected market pattern.
2. If there is uncertainty about what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

It appears Tehran has thoroughly revised the fundamentals of its military strategy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has officially announced that the Islamic Republic's military doctrine will henceforth be explicitly "offensive and asymmetric." IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi told SNN in an interview that the prior concept—limited to defensive actions and retaliatory strikes only in the event of direct aggression—is a thing of the past. The Iranian command now openly threatens full-scale incursions into any country that attempts an attack.

The aim of the new doctrine is to inflict such a pre-emptive blow on an adversary that it fully appreciates Tehran's power and resolve. This hard rhetoric is matched by operations in the Persian Gulf maritime theater:

• Four oil tankers were struck near the IRGC's area of operations;
• three commercial vessels were later damaged by naval mines west of the Strait of Hormuz;
• the international airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, suffered an air strike;
• pro-Iran Houthi forces continue regular raids on Saudi strategic and transport targets.

Political time pressure on Trump

In Washington, by contrast, officials show a marked reluctance to pursue diplomatic compromise. President Donald Trump told the White House pool he categorically denies any talks with Tehran: "No, I think we're not negotiating. We are going to have something one way or the other that'll happen fairly soon. Most people seem to think it's after the election, and we're going to see what happens." He did not disclose details of any planned actions and described Iran's financial and military situation as critical.

Trump assesses that Iran simply "has no money" and that the Iranian army, navy, and air forces have been largely degraded by prior US operations. He called actions against Iran among the most outstanding decisions of his administration, arguing that only forceful military intervention prevented Iran from acquiring a nuclear arsenal. There is little doubt Washington will avoid escalation until after the vote, shielding the administration from electoral shocks.

Europe's gas dilemma

The same dynamics are playing out in France, where protests against the rising cost of living have erupted. President Emmanuel Macron publicly acknowledged that the threat of a Strait of Hormuz cut-off was catastrophically underestimated by the international community. Traders, however, must distinguish strictly between oil, diesel, and gas: each market obeys its own dynamics, with its own supply-and-demand balance and specific culprits. Paradoxically, there is no global shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to IEA calculations, global LNG deliveries in 2026 will be broadly unchanged from 2025. Lost Qatari and Emirati exports due to Gulf tensions were almost fully offset by new terminal capacity in the US, Australia, and several African states. Physical gas has not disappeared from world markets, yet spot prices have surged to record levels. The reason lies in buyer behavior — primarily European and Chinese purchases:

1. Failure of Europe's procurement strategy. European gas management mistakes began to show last autumn. EU traders deliberately underfilled underground gas storage (UGS) facilities, deeming current prices too high and hoping for seasonal declines. After the Hormuz blockade, prices did not fall but surged. European operators were forced into panic buying of LNG cargoes competing with Asian importers, which further pushed prices up. As a result, by October 1 average UGS fill levels in Europe were only about 72%—historically a disastrous level ahead of the heating season. Facing winter cold peaks with such stocks becomes an extreme survival test for the continent's energy system.

2. China's coal crisis. A second powerful price driver came from Beijing. A spring accident at a coal mining site in Shanxi province prompted draconian safety tightening across the country. Miners moved to strict regimes, triggering a sharp fall in coal output amid steadily rising electricity demand. The shortage of solid fuels forced Chinese authorities to fire up gas-fired generation and to sweep the global LNG market, depriving Europe of opportunities to buy available cargoes at reasonable prices.

Treasuries as haven and consolidation of US dollar

Tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices keep inflationary pressure high, yet the US bond market has found a pause. Investors actively buy discounted US Treasuries as a classic safe haven amid a broad tech sell-off and capital flight from over-heated AI-linked stocks. Fresh US macro releases showed a slowdown in homebuilder activity and residential market transactions collapsing to historic lows.

Ahead lies a series of meetings of major global central banks. Market consensus now nearly rules out policy changes next week: the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan are all very likely to leave key rates unchanged. However, the geopolitical premium embedded in commodity contracts fans inflationary expectations, and its rise will prevent central banks from loosening policy prematurely.

October 22

October 22, 09:00 / Eurozone / **/ New car registrations in September / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 4.5% / forecast: 10.1% / EUR/USD — up

The EU auto market posted its seventh consecutive month of growth in August, rising 4.5% on the back of a solid inflow of buyers into the electric vehicle segment. Fully electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 21.7% of total sales, with France, Germany, and Denmark the key growth drivers. Among the bloc's largest economies, Spain showed double-digit growth in registrations (+11.8%), while France, Italy, and Germany recorded more modest but steady increases. Analysts expect a marked acceleration in new car registrations in September. A strong pick-up in both consumer demand and auto production would support the euro.

October 22, 13:00 / United Kingdom / **/ CBI business optimism index Q4 (leading) / prev.: -65 / actual: -36 / forecast: -38 / GBP/USD — down

The quarterly business sentiment gauge from the Confederation of British Industry rebounded strongly in Q3, rising to -36 after a deep plunge in Q2. Despite the marked reduction in pessimism among manufacturers, the indicator remains far below its long-run norm, reflecting corporate caution amid high rates and geopolitical instability. Markets expect a moderate deterioration in business sentiment in Q4. Any renewed weakening of business confidence would weigh on the pound.

October 22, 13:00 / United Kingdom /**/ CBI manufacturing orders balance for October (leading) / prev.: -25 / actual: -9 / forecast: -20 / GBP/USD — down

September's CBI survey recorded the manufacturing orders balance at its best level since summer 2023. The industrial picture was shaped by:

• a sharp reduction in the decline of both domestic and export order books, now above long-run averages;
• a significant slowdown in expectations for factory gate price increases, bringing them close to normal;
• cautious production expectations for the months ahead amid high energy, labor, and logistics costs.

Consensus for the October release assumes a noticeable pullback and deterioration in the manufacturing orders balance. A decline in order book indicators would put pressure on the pound.

October 22, 15:30 / Canada / **/ New home price for September (m/m) / prev.: -0.1% / actual: -0.1% / forecast: 0.4% / USD/CAD — down

August prices on Canada's primary housing market fell a token 0.1% month-on-month, repeating the trajectory of the prior two months. Near-zero dynamics in unit prices, with land values stabilizing, point to a gradual establishment of a price floor in homebuilding after an extended cooling driven by costly credit. Experts expect a clear return to growth in the primary housing market in September. A recovery in construction activity would support the Canadian dollar.

October 22, 15:30 / Canada / **/ Industrial producer price index (IPPI) for September / prev.: 12.3% / actual: 13.5% / forecast: 14.1% / USD/CAD — down

Output factory prices in Canada accelerated in August, rising more than one percentage point. Higher output costs have synchronized with a global upswing in commodity markets, forcing producers to pass elevated material costs into final goods prices. The September report anticipates further growth in industrial inflationary pressure. Stronger wholesale inflation increases the likelihood that the central bank will keep policy tight, which supports the Canadian dollar.

October 22, 15:30 / Canada / **/Raw materials price index (RMPI) for September / prev.: 18.2% / actual: 22.8% / forecast: 24.0% / USD/CAD—down

Annual growth in Canada's raw materials prices for August showed a powerful rally, reaching 22.8%—far above long-run averages for the past four decades. The sharp price surge was driven by global supply disruptions in energy and broad increases in key raw inputs for manufacturing. Analysts expect the raw materials rally to continue. High commodity export prices will provide substantial support to the Canadian dollar.

October 22, 15:30 / USA / **/Initial jobless claims / prev.: 198k / actual: 199k / forecast: 200k / USDX (six-currency USD index) — down

The weekly US Labor Department data show continued near-record stability: initial claims remain below the 200k threshold, and continuing claims fell to 1.71m, holding near three-year lows. Despite a local increase in claims from public sector workers, the overall labor picture supports a full employment scenario in the US economy. The next release is expected to show a modest rise in initial claims. Early signs of weakening hiring would put pressure on the US dollar.

October 22, 17:00 / Eurozone / ***/Consumer confidence for October (leading) / prev.: -15.5 / actual: -16.5 / forecast: -17.0 / EUR/USD — down

The eurozone's leading consumer confidence indicator fell to -16.5 in September, interrupting a four-month recovery. Household stress reflects a broad set of factors:

• a surge in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict and an expectation of prolonged high rates;
• declines in households' assessments of their personal finances both retrospectively and prospectively;
• worsening views of the general economic situation;
• a sharp drop in plans to make major purchases.

Analysts expect consumer pessimism to deepen in October. A weakening of domestic demand will weigh on the euro.

October 22, 18:00 / USA / **/ Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for October (leading) / prev.: 17 / actual: 20 / forecast: 18 / USDX — down

Manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City district reached its highest level since spring 2022 in September. The upswing covered both durable and nondurable goods, with the strongest impulse from furniture, rubber, and plastic makers. Key leading indicators confirm business revival: new order balances jumped to multi-month highs and shipments expanded notably, although rising input costs and cautious six-month managerial expectations continue to constrain hiring plans. The October report is expected to show a moderate cooling of regional manufacturing. Slowing activity would put pressure on the US dollar.

October 23

October 23, 01:00 / Australia /**/ S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 52.0 / actual: 49.6 / forecast: 49.4 / AUD/USD — down

Australia's manufacturing PMI plunged into contraction in September, marking the deepest deterioration in conditions in 21 months. The primary trigger was a synchronous fall in domestic and export demand: new orders ended a three-month upswing as competition and high input prices forced factories to cut output at the fastest pace since late 2024. Logistics delays from the Middle East crisis and adverse weather in Asia exacerbated the situation, leading to the first employment decline in the sector in five months. The preliminary October release is expected to show a further deepening of the industrial downturn. A worsening manufacturing picture will weigh on the Australian dollar.

October 23, 01:00 / Australia /**/ S&P Global services PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 53.2 / actual: 51.9 / forecast: 51.1 / AUD/USD — down

Australia's services sector remained in modest expansion in September, but growth slowed to a three-month low amid weak new business inflows. Despite a muted recovery in foreign orders, service firms began trimming staff to curb rapidly rising costs driven by more expensive fuel and labor. Higher production costs are being passed through into final prices, and with falling corporate confidence this raises questions about the sustainability of consumer demand. The October consensus points to further slowing in service activity. A cooling in services growth would weigh on the Australian dollar.

October 23, 02:01 / United Kingdom / **/ GfK consumer confidence for October (leading) / prev.: -14 / actual: -13 / forecast: -15 / GBP/USD — down

September's GfK survey showed an unexpected improvement in UK consumer sentiment to its best level in more than two years. Households became noticeably more upbeat about their personal finances and the national economic outlook, reflected in concurrent gains across related confidence metrics. Nevertheless, the indicator remains deeply negative, and a renewed bout of energy price inflation poses a serious risk of eroding consumer optimism ahead of winter. Analysts expect the measure to fall back in October. A return to weaker consumer confidence would weigh on the pound.

October 23, 02:30 / Japan / ***/CPI for September / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 1.9% / forecast: 2.3% / USD/JPY — down

Japan's annual consumer inflation for August stayed at the year's peak amid sustained price rises in household goods, food, and transport services. A rise in gas prices was offset by government energy subsidies for electricity, and core inflation excluding fresh food eased slightly for the first time in four months, remaining below the 2% policy benchmark. The September release is expected to show a material acceleration in consumer prices. A stronger inflation backdrop would raise the likelihood of further Bank of Japan tightening and support the yen.

October 23, 03:30 / Japan / **/S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 54.9 / actual: 54.1 / forecast: 59.5 / USD/JPY — down

Japan's manufacturing PMI held at 54.1 in September, indicating the slowest expansion since spring. Slower output and domestic sales came with lengthening supplier lead times, forcing firms to increase raw material inventories for the first time in over two years. Export demand and hiring remained resilient near multi-year highs, while inflationary pressure on input costs eased to a six-month low. The preliminary October reading anticipates a strong uptick in industrial activity. A meaningful revival in manufacturing would strengthen the yen.

October 23, 01:00 / Australia / **/ S&P Global services PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 53.2 / actual: 51.9 / forecast: 50.5 / AUD/USD — down

Australia's services sector showed its weakest expansion in three months in September. Slower inflows of new domestic business prompted firms to cut staff for the first time since May to rein in rapidly rising operating costs driven by higher fuel and labor prices. The need to pass higher input costs into final charges amid falling corporate confidence raises risks to demand sustainability. The October consensus expects activity to cool further toward the brink of stagnation. A slowdown in services growth will weigh on the Australian dollar.

October 23, 09:00 / United Kingdom / ***/ Retail sales for September / prev.: 1.2% / actual: 2.4% / forecast: 1.0% / GBP/USD — down

UK retail volumes in August rose 2.4% year-on-year, comfortably beating expectations and exceeding long-run averages of the past three decades. A strong consumer uptick followed a modest July rise, temporarily supporting the retail sector ahead of the autumn season. The September consensus foresees a sharp cooling in retail turnover. A marked pullback in consumer spending will weigh on the pound.

October 23, 10:30 / Germany / ***/S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 54.3 / actual: 53.9 / forecast: 53.5 / EUR/USD — down

Germany's manufacturing sector maintained solid expansion in September, with a composite PMI of 53.9, near two-year highs. Growth was supported by robust output and an expanding order book, driving capacity utilization to its highest since spring 2022 and sharply slowing job cuts at factories. Manufacturers' 12-month expectations hit a February high despite logistic disruptions and persistent energy price pressure. A lower print could weaken the euro.

October 23, 10:30 / Germany / ***/S&P Global services PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 49.7 / actual: 52.9 / forecast: 52.5 / EUR/USD — down

Germany's services PMI rose to a seven-month high in September, returning to clear expansion on the back of stronger new orders and rising investment spending. Firms increased hiring for the second month as backlogs built, though resurging input cost inflation pushed service providers to raise prices. The October preliminary reading expects a moderate slowdown in the pace of expansion. Some easing in services momentum would weigh on the euro.

October 23, 13:30, 15:00 / Russia / **/ Bank of Russia key rate decision and press conference / prev.: 14.0% / actual: 14.0% / forecast: 14.0% / USD/RUB — down

The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14% following the September meeting, pausing after ten consecutive easing steps. The pause was justified by a jump in core inflation in Q3, with seasonally smoothed annual growth hitting 11.6% due to refinery disruptions and a spike in fuel tariffs. While the central bank treats the price shock as largely exogenous and expects disinflation to resume, labor market tightness persists amid record low unemployment and consumer spending is slowing only moderately. The decision to remain tight and the regulator's readiness to counter inflationary risks will support the ruble.

October 23, 15:30 / Canada / **/Retail sales for August / prev.: 5.2% / actual: 5.1% / forecast: 4.9% / USD/CAD — up

Canada's retail sales rose 5.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the long-run market benchmark of 4.65%. The consumer sector remained resilient near strong June levels, providing solid support for domestic demand. The August consensus expects retail growth to slow. Cooling consumer activity would weigh on the Canadian dollar.

October 23, 16:45 / USA / ***/S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 53.9 / actual: 55.9 / forecast: 55.5 / USDX (six-currency USD index) — down

US manufacturing business activity held at 55.9 in September, marking the best reading since spring 2022. The industrial impulse was supported by inflows of orders from the public sector and tech firms, allowing factories to raise output for the sixteenth consecutive month and to accelerate hiring at the fastest pace in five years. At the same time export demand remained under pressure from trade tariffs and expensive logistics, and lengthening supplier lead times coincided with renewed upward pressure on input costs. The preliminary October reading is expected to show a moderate slowdown in manufacturing growth. A weakening of industrial momentum would weigh on the US dollar.

October 23, 16:45 / USA / ***/ S&P Global services PMI preliminary for October / prev.: 56.5 / actual: 58.8 / forecast: 58.0 / USDX — down

The US services sector showed its strongest expansion since summer 2021 in September, extending a six-month growth run. High domestic demand produced the strongest inflow of new orders in more than four years, led by high tech industries, health care, and retail, which created capacity shortages and a continuous build-up of backlogs. To cope with the surge in clients, service firms increased payrolls for the third month running while facing sharp rises in gas and labor costs that forced them to raise prices. The October preliminary release anticipates some cooling of service expansion. Slower services growth would put downward pressure on the greenback.

October 23, 17:00 / USA / **/ University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October (leading) / prev.: 51.7 / actual: 48.1 / forecast: 46.3 / USDX — down

US consumer confidence fell in early October to its weakest levels since late spring as households expressed growing frustration with the rising cost of living. The assessment of current economic conditions plunged to a historic low of 44.7, reflecting adverse conditions for purchasing durable goods amid higher prices and costly credit. Lower income families with limited savings were hit hardest, their budgets exhausted by further spending pressure. Expected worsening of household sentiment raises the risk of further contraction in domestic demand and will weigh on the US dollar.

October 23, 17:00 / USA / **/ University of Michigan inflation expectations for October (leading) / prev.: 4.0% / actual: 4.6% / forecast: 4.7% / USDX — up

Short-term inflation expectations of US consumers continued to rise in October, reaching a five-month high. Consumers' belief that prices will keep rising over the year coincided with a lift in the five-year expectation to 3.5%, signaling a deeper entrenchment of pro-inflationary sentiment among the public. Analysts expect inflation expectations to edge higher in the next report. Persistently elevated household inflation fears strengthen the case for a hawkish Fed and support the US dollar.

October 22, 13:50 / UK — Andrew Bailey, Bank of England — GBP/USD

October 22, 15:15 / Eurozone — Fabio Panetta, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Italy — EUR/USD

October 22, 23:00 / UK — Catherine Braddick, Bank of England — GBP/USD

October 23, 10:55 / Eurozone — Patrick Montagner, ECB Supervisory Board — EUR/USD

October 23, 17:00 / Eurozone — Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board — EUR/USD

Additional senior central bank speakers are scheduled over these days; their comments typically drive FX volatility by signaling policy plans.

A link to economic calendar. All figures are year-on-year unless noted (m/m where applicable). Trade balance, export, and import values are in the country's currency. An asterisk denotes report importance for instruments available on the InstaForex platform. The indicated time is Moscow (GMT+3.00). Open a trading account here. See InstaForex market video news. For on-the-go access, download the MobileTrader app.

US equity index dynamics

Even though asset managers are trimming tech exposure in portfolios, the AI theme is not going away. It will be rekindled by headlines such as NVIDIA's announcement about supercomputers already in cloud deployments. Yes, investors worry that massive AI spending may not pay off — they need proof that revenues are rising. And whenever any positive signs appear, S&P 500 drawdowns tend to get bought.

Impressive Q3 results at SpaceX and merger rumors involving Tesla — potentially the largest ever — handed the broad market a rescue rope. So did Anthropic's IPO filing, which revealed $16.3 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026.

Tech giants are pulling the S&P 500 out of the abyss, and this is happening against a supportive macro backdrop. The Fed appears unlikely to tighten policy before December, Treasury yields have fallen to five-week lows, and history shows positive returns in the five months following primaries.

That said, conditions can change quickly. The current situation echoes events eight years ago, when political disappointment over the direction of the Trump administration increased the odds of a "blue wave" and raised the perceived risk of tighter policy. Newly-appointed Fed Chair Jerome Powell then showed hawkish tendencies, which drove up the probability of interest rate hikes and triggered a market sell-off.

S&P 500 behavior during primaries

The S&P 500 initially fell but then recovered lost ground — and if history repeats, that could create buying opportunities for those willing to pick up US equities at lower prices. In 2018, the odds of continued Fed tightening later eased, which became a tailwind for the broad market.

Today, markets put the odds of an October fed-funds hike at roughly 15% and a December increase at about 88%. Derivatives imply about 75 basis points of rate tightening over the next 12 months. If those expectations are too aggressive, that would be bullish for equities.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows consolidation above fair value and a rise to a fresh high. A break above 7,770 would support adding to existing long positions.

According to the latest reports, a drone struck the Saudi Aramco Shaybah field, killing two workers, though output was not affected. Another attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one person. Against this backdrop, the U.S. ordered the evacuation of some embassy staff and their families from the kingdom.

Note that Brent has risen more than 80% since the start of the year. Flows from the Persian Gulf were disrupted by the U.S.–Iran war, which is approaching its ninth month with no sign of resolution. At the same time, crude shipments recently increased and are close to pre-war levels, as tankers turn off transponders to avoid detection.

Official data on U.S. inventories was also released yesterday: crude stocks fell by just over 3 million barrels, another 300,000 barrels were withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and distillate inventories rose by almost 2 million barrels, slightly easing diesel and fuel-oil markets.

However, the Middle East remains the main factor. Iran in recent weeks has stepped up attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran-linked Houthis frequently strike Saudi Arabia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported strikes on four oil tankers during ship-to-ship transfers in the northern Persian Gulf; the timing of the attacks was not specified. The New York Times reported that the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for new strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterms.

Meanwhile, a tanker carrying about 40,000 tonnes (roughly 300,000 barrels) of Russian diesel is due to sail to the U.S. on Thursday under Trump's deal with Moscow. However, ongoing fighting and the risk of renewed escalation after the elections keep prices from falling, and the market is struggling to sustain a new bull run. All this suggests oil remains in a high-price zone, and rising exports and Washington's price-reduction policies do not yet outweigh military risks. While diplomacy is absent, Brent will hold near $110.

As for the current technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $101. That would set up a target at $105, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farthest target is the $109 area. In case of a decline, bears will try to seize control of $98. If that succeeds, a range breakout would deal a severe blow to bulls' positions and push Oil to a $95 low with a prospect of extending to $92.

Oil remains the main factor. It rose above $110 a barrel after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia that heightened supply concerns from the region. The U.S. ordered the evacuation of some embassy staff and their families from the kingdom. Rising real yields on U.S. bonds also add pressure on gold, since the metal pays no interest.

Recall that since last Friday, traders have had almost no fresh Fed cues: comments from Fed chair Kevin Warsh did not change expectations that the Fed will hold rates at next week's meeting. Weak housing data — notably a drop in housing starts and record-low pending home sales — support that scenario. The probability of a 25-bp hike is now less than one in six, but rising oil prices could change that. Traders currently expect another hike in December, yet inflation remains well above the 2% target, and high energy prices increase the chance the Fed will need to tighten policy further.

All this means gold now depends less on safe-haven demand and more on rate expectations. As long as oil stays above $110 and markets price in a December hike, pressure on the metal will persist.

As for the technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,124. That would allow targeting $4,192, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The far target is the $4,249 area. In a decline, bears will try to seize control of $4,062. If that succeeds, a breakout above the range will deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold toward a $4,047 low, with the prospect of extending to $4,021.

Mixed earnings failed to reassure. Tesla shares slipped by 3.3% in after-hours trading on a lowered capex guide, while Meta rose by 2.2% after increasing its AI-spend commitment. Lam Research dropped by 7.4% on a weak outlook. The market is hard to please: it reacts when companies both ramp and cut spending. Barclays says the market has shifted from trading AI sentiment to demanding higher evidence thresholds for strong reports, both in guidance and monetization paths.

Major tech reports are limited in the coming days: Microsoft and Alphabet report next week. Meanwhile, attention will return to oil prices.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding pressure. The US State Department ordered non-emergency staff and dependents to leave Saudi Arabia amid Houthi threats, and The New York Times reports the United States and Israel have drafted plans to resume strikes on Iran after the US midterms.

Oil is responding higher: Brent is up about 2.4% near $111.40/bbl. Gold is down roughly 1.6% to about $4,075/oz, and Bitcoin is off more than 2% to settle at $82,600.

Treasuries rallied across the curve; the 30-year yield fell by 3 bps to 5.38%, marking the lowest level since September 23. The yen is the top G10 performer, strengthening even versus the dollar.

Bottom line: the market is not yet willing to pay up for AI without confirmed payoffs, and rising oil plus Iran-related risks add further pressure. With mixed earnings and Brent above $110, safe-haven assets remain in favor.

As for S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,698. That would signal upside momentum and open a move toward $7,718. Controlling $7,737 is also a priority to strengthen bulls' positions. If the price falls amid waning risk appetite, buyers should defend near $7,679. A break below that level would likely push the index down to $7,656 and open the way to $7,633.

The test of the price 158.04 came at a time when the MACD indicator had moved far down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For that reason, I didn't sell and missed a good downward move.

Given how rapidly the yen is strengthening against the dollar today and how noticeably the euro and the pound jumped during Asian trading, the Japanese central bank likely intervened in the FX market. We have seen such moves several times in recent months, often with U.S. support, and today appears to be no exception. Recall the last joint Japan–U.S. intervention on July 31; in September the pair moved from 160.37 on September 2 to 153.40 on September 9 — levels not seen since February. That reversal also came with loud political signals.

Officials from both countries have made similar declarations before. Scott Bessent has been pressing the Bank of Japan and met with Kazuo Ueda, and recently publicly suggested traders bet against him, saying he relied on insider information. On October 6, Ueda confirmed that rate rises would continue, though he left pace and timing open; on October 15, board member Junko Koda warned against excessive caution and said the neutral rate is significantly above 1%. For comparison, the BOJ's current rate is 1.25%. The market prices in about a 25% chance of a rate hike at the October 30 meeting, and 10-year JGB yields reached around 3% for the first time in 30 years on October 9, at 3.025%.

I would not be surprised if leading U.S. and Japanese politicians make new statements on this topic in the coming days. When central banks stand behind a move, it can be sharp and unexpected, and levels that seemed reliable can be pierced in minutes. For this reason, I will be extremely cautious about buying USD/JPY in the near term and will not rush to trade against parties willing to spend reserves to defend the yen.

For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 157.69 (the green line on the chart), targeting 158.27 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.27, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip move away from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant USD/JPY drawdowns. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 157.30 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 157.69 and 158.27.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.30 level is refreshed (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. Sellers' key target is 156.77, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move away from the level). Sellers will return at any moment — only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 157.69 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 157.30 and 156.77.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the price 1.3382 came at a time when the MACD indicator had moved far down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. A second test of 1.3382 led to the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for buying the pound, resulting in a 20-pip rise.

UK inflation did its work yesterday. The annual consumer price index stood at 3.5% versus a 3.4% forecast and 3.1% in August; the monthly figure was 0.4% versus a 0.3% forecast (0.5% a month earlier). Core inflation gave an even stronger signal, rising to 2.8% versus a 2.7% forecast and 2.6% previously. Strong US reports could have helped sellers, but no US data were released in the afternoon, and there was no reason to sell the pound against the dollar. In my view, while rate expectations persist, the pound will hold, and only data that make the Bank of England doubt the need for tightening can cool it.

Today the pound will focus on two events. First, the Confederation of British Industry's industrial-orders balance, forecast to worsen to -20 from -9 a month earlier. Second, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak. Bailey's remarks yesterday did not move GBP/USD, and I do not expect a different outcome today. Recall that Megan Greene urged a rate hike at the November 5 meeting earlier this week. If Bailey gives no hint of a hawkish turn and industrial orders print near forecasts, the pound is unlikely to leave the current range.

For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches an entry point around 1.3402 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3420 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3420, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip move away from the level). You can count on the pound to rise today after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3390 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3402 and 1.3420.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3390 level is refreshed (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target is 1.3365, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move away from the level). Bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3402 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3390 and 1.3365.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of 1.1230 came when the MACD indicator had moved far above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. For that reason, I did not buy the euro. A second test of 1.1230 triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling, with the pair falling 15 pips.

With no important U.S. data and under pressure from worrying news from the Middle East, EUR/USD traded the day in a narrow sideways channel without losing chances for a rise. While traders waited for another impulse, the newsfeed produced several worrying signals. According to Iranian journalists, aircraft are being evacuated from Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. At the same time, reports say U.S. military and diplomats are secretly leaving the region. Tehran, in turn, is preparing for an attack by the U.S. and Israel and does not trust Washington's diplomatic gestures. Such headlines usually play into the dollar's hands as a safe-haven currency, which makes it all the more interesting that the pair still holds near the top of the range and has not collapsed. This shows euro buyers have not yet surrendered. I think further growth is possible if the news stays in words, but a serious escalation would give the dollar a chance to recover its losses quickly.

The European calendar is thin today, with only the consumer-confidence indicator as a notable item. It is expected at -17.0 points versus -16.5 a month ago. Even if the figure comes in noticeably better or worse than expected, it is unlikely to overturn the market, and traders will likely ignore it. Therefore, the day's main protagonists will be U.S. Treasury yields and news from the Middle East. The former directly affects the dollar's appeal, and the latter set the overall tone of caution or, conversely, optimism. The euro is more of a spectator here, and EUR/USD will react to external narratives. In my view, while Europe remains quiet, US yields and geopolitics will point to direction, and consumer confidence will only slightly tweak sentiment.

For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: Today, it is possible to buy the euro when it reaches around 1.1253 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1280. At 1.1280, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. One can count on the euro rising today only after good news on the Middle East. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1239 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1253 and 1.1280.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1239 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1218, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Strong pressure on the pair can return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1253 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1239 and 1.1218.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.