Formally, the dollar has some trump cards: inflation remains above target. But MUFG argues that even a rate increase is unlikely to be decisive. The ECB, Bank of England, and RBA are more hawkish than expected, and rate differentials are unlikely to swing sharply in the greenback's favor. What matters is not the fact of a hike but the signal — whether it marks the start of a cycle or is a one?off adjustment. MUFG's base case is the latter, which creates short?term upside risks for the dollar versus the euro without overturning the broader bearish view.

Treasury yields and the dollar dynamics

The Fed's hands are tied by more than just data. With two months until the midterm elections, large fiscal tightening is off the table. Monetary policy remains the only tool. The risk is asymmetric: if the Fed refrains from moving despite strong data, investors will demand risk premia and lose confidence, pushing yields higher and the curve steeper — as happened after July. Tightening would have avoided much of that.

The dollar's sharp slide in the first half of 2025 was a story of the narrative turning against US exceptionalism. Trade policy crowded out pro?cyclical measures, political uncertainty rose, and growth shifted toward Europe — helped materially by a German fiscal package. The dollar stabilized when the noise subsided. But structural weaknesses — fiscal outlook, term premium and trust issues — keep the bearish case for the greenback alive. In the short term, the picture is less one?sided: the eurozone is resilient and inflation there has unexpectedly picked up.

ECB rate outlook

The ECB itself faces a tricky calibration. Bloomberg economists expect one hike to 2.5% followed by a pause through 2027 — a dovish scenario versus traders pricing roughly three more moves into mid?next year. The divergence is widening amid Middle East escalation: oil is moving back toward $100, and gas is rising to 2023 levels. A 25?bp step looks necessary, but it is unlikely to trigger a sustained euro rally.

ANZ notes that EUR/USD's rise above 1.17 in August reflected not just dollar weakness but eurozone resilience. GDP grew 0.4% in Q2 and PMI has been rising for months. The policy meeting on September 9–10 will bring the ECB's first projections since June; they should confirm resilience and support the euro. The risk is that the bank focuses on energy?driven disinflation and trims forecasts, which would cap the instrument's rally.

Either way, the dollar and euro are playing the same game in September under different rules — each side is waiting for the other central bank to blink first. Who will do it earlier?

Technically, on the daily chart, a break below 1.1610 in EUR/USD would be a sell signal. Conversely, a move above 1.1635 would be a buy signal.

The wave pattern on the four-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. There is still no question of canceling the upward section of the trend (lower chart), which began in January of last year. On the contrary, we saw a complete A-B-C corrective structure, which has most likely been completed. We never saw a convincing wave 5 in C. This wave took a truncated form, which also happens from time to time. Let me remind you that classical wave structures are generally found only in textbooks. In real-life market conditions, traders and analysts should be more flexible in their analysis.

Unfortunately, the wave structure may become more complex again at present. Wave C may take a three-wave form, the wave that follows it will be identified as wave D, and the entire trend section that began on January 27 will take the five-wave corrective form A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, wave D will take a three-wave form, and on August 21, EUR/USD entered the phase of forming wave E, whose low should be below the low of wave C at 1.1325. At the same time, however, this scenario is an alternative one. Based on the fundamental backdrop, I am more inclined to expect the formation of a global upward wave.

The EUR/USD pair declined by 10 basis points during Friday's trading session. Of course, by the end of the day, the exchange-rate change may turn out to be much greater than the current figure. However, the absolute change in the EUR/USD rate is not the key factor today; rather, the intraday price movements are more important. In short, the US currency managed to gain approximately 35 points after the release of an exceptionally strong Nonfarm Payrolls report. This increase was relatively small given the strength of the report. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a figure that market participants had been waiting for for at least four months. In August, 162,000 jobs were created, exceeding market expectations by at least three times. The unemployment rate did not deteriorate and remained unchanged at 4.1%. Accordingly, the US currency had an excellent opportunity to strengthen its position following its gains in recent weeks, but it failed to take advantage of it. Why?

In my view, the answer is straightforward and particularly clear, just like today's payrolls report. Despite the strong August figure, the overall state of the US labor market in 2025 and 2026 remains unsatisfactory. Over the past 17 months, we have seen a Nonfarm Payrolls figure above 100,000 only five times. Let me remind you that during Joe Biden's presidency, at least 100,000 jobs were created every month, and usually considerably more. Therefore, the August payrolls figure is an exception rather than the rule. The US labor market remains in a "cooled" state, so in my view, the Fed is unlikely to risk raising the interest rate in September. This explains the lack of a strong strengthening of the US currency today. The market once again does not believe that the FOMC will tighten policy.

Overall Conclusions.

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within a local upward section of the trend as part of the first wave of a new global upward section. It should be acknowledged that the trend section that began in January of this year may take the form of A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, the decline in quotations will resume, with targets below the low of wave C at 1.1325. However, I consider this scenario to be an alternative one. I believe that a new upward section of the trend began forming in June, which will return the euro currency to the 20th level and take it significantly above this level.

On the higher time frame, an upward section of the trend is visible, followed by the formation of an A-B-C corrective structure. This structure may take a five-wave form, but at the current time I consider it complete. If so, the formation of a new impulsive upward section of the trend has begun.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of a price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair had been declining for six days, but the bears' advance has now come to an end. For five full days, the US dollar has been unable to convince traders that further purchases of the currency are justified. Imbalance 21 has not been invalidated, while imbalance 20 triggered a price reaction. The Nonfarm Payrolls report released today somewhat spoiled the picture for the bulls. Following a series of weak reports on the labor market and business activity, it showed a genuinely strong result. In August, 162,000 new jobs were created, while traders had not expected more than 56,000. It does not matter that this figure may be revised in a month. What matters is that today the previous month's figure was revised from -29,000 to +21,000. Thus, the Nonfarm Payrolls report should have triggered a very strong rise in the US currency. This is not only because the labor market itself finally showed a positive result, but also because the chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening have now increased. Of course, I do not want to draw conclusions about the state of the labor market based on a single monthly report, but nevertheless, ahead of the September meeting, this is a good argument in favor of a rate hike. However, I still believe that the Fed will not take a hawkish step in September, and the dollar did not rise today by an amount commensurate with the payrolls report and the prospect of future monetary policy tightening.

Overall, in my view, the fundamental backdrop continues to fully support the bulls. First, it is clearly visible on any chart that the euro currency began its rise from relatively low levels, compared with its average price over the past year. This means that it still has upward potential. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what Worsh says. Third, economic data from the United States have recently brought nothing but disappointment. Fourth, geopolitics no longer supports the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB may tighten monetary policy once more this autumn. Sixth, the US Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, which reduces demand for the dollar. Seventh, a new trade war between the United States and Canada and between the United States and China may begin in the near future. Eighth, the US labor market is contracting, which could put an end to Worsh's hawkish initiatives. Therefore, I currently see no reason whatsoever for a bearish advance.

US labor market data have shown weak readings over the past 4–6 months, inflation has slowed over the past two months, and GDP growth has decelerated over the past three quarters. These three factors make me doubt that the FOMC will raise rates not only in September but also by the end of the year. In my view, the bears' only opportunity at present lies in a new escalation in the Middle East, rather than in isolated reports.

The current technical picture indicates that the bullish momentum is being maintained. Price has completely filled the latest bullish imbalance 21 and even touched the previous bullish imbalance 20. The combined reaction to these two patterns could bring the bulls back into the market, and the upward move could resume. The bears will gain technical grounds for an advance only if both patterns are invalidated. The euro currency also has to save the pound, which does not have such a strong support zone.

The economic backdrop on Friday allowed the bears to launch a powerful attack. However, as of the time of writing, I can say only one thing: the reaction was extremely weak. Traders refrained from buying the US dollar, and it rose in value only nominally. Thus, it appears that the market no longer believes in FOMC policy tightening.

There are still plenty of reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, has not changed. At present, I see no serious supporting factors for the US currency, despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitics, which supported demand for the US currency for most of the first half of 2026, is no longer doing so. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, but there have been no new hostilities from either Iran or the United States.

Economic calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – Change in industrial production (06:00 UTC).
• European Union – Change in GDP in the second quarter (09:00 UTC).

On September 7, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which is of particular interest. The economic backdrop may have little or no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has taken a year-long pause. The fundamental backdrop changed sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or completed. In the long term, I would say that the pair is in a range. However, the range does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Therefore, the bulls may well continue their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support level in the form of imbalance 21, where a new bullish signal may form. We have already seen a precise rebound from imbalance 20. I consider the levels of 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the targets for a new rise in the euro currency.

The GBP/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum, but the bullish advance is still not over. In my view, the pound's salvation lies in the hands of the euro. At present, the euro currency is still maintaining a bullish bias and has not invalidated its two latest bullish imbalances. These imbalances could save both the euro and the pound. As I said earlier, I see no reasons for the bears to launch an advance. This week, traders could observe paradoxical movements. During the first three days of the week, the dollar had no reasons to rise, but it did. On Thursday, the dollar had grounds to rise, but it fell. Today, the US currency could have risen by at least 100 points, but instead it declined by literally 10–20 points. Therefore, I cannot describe the current movements as logical, especially in the pound. I believe that the technical picture for the euro is currently more logical and informative. Despite the strong August Nonfarm Payrolls report, the overall picture in the labor market has not changed, while at least two FOMC members spoke out against changing the interest rate in the near future this week. I believe that the Fed will not tighten policy in September. If the euro currency rebounds from its two imbalances and begins an upward move, I expect the pound to rise as well, even without the formation of signals or patterns and despite the two bearish imbalances.

Over the past month, the dollar has suffered numerous setbacks, including the US Treasury's decision to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks, weak monthly Nonfarm Payrolls reports, a weak annual Nonfarm Payrolls report, a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index, a slowdown in GDP growth, and declining market expectations for Fed monetary policy tightening. This week, the only factors supporting the dollar were the Nonfarm Payrolls report (for the first time in a long while) and the ISM Services PMI. However, at the most critical moment, the bulls retreated despite having all the cards in their hands. All that remains is to hope for the euro and for this behavior by the bulls to be temporary.

Do the bears have prospects at present? In my view, very few. As we have already established, the fundamental backdrop does not support the US dollar. However, we should not forget that not everything in the market depends solely on the fundamental backdrop. In the long term, the market has been in a range for about a year. We have seen three waves upward, and everything suggests that the bulls should continue their advance. However, over the past year, we have seen an alternation of three-wave structures and similar formations. A liquidity sweep of the swing from May 1 could provide a basis for a new bearish part, which would be completely inconsistent with the fundamental backdrop.

Geopolitics is no longer having a favorable effect on the dollar. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed once again and are no longer taking place. From time to time, Iran and the United States exchange strikes, threats, and ultimatums, which have no effect whatsoever on resolving the conflict or ending the war. No one can currently predict how much longer the conflict will continue. And the dollar cannot count on market support every time the two sides exchange strikes, which are occurring with notable regularity.

Technical analysis shows that within just a few days, the picture changed from bullish to bearish based on two completely ambiguous events. The euro may stop the pound's decline, but at present, the bears have two imbalances from which positions can be opened. However, the pound's decline could end at any moment if the euro fails to overcome its imbalances. In the euro-pound pair, the euro currency has the higher status.

The economic fundamental backdrop on Friday handed all the cards to the bears. The European retail sales report was weaker than market expectations, while the US unemployment and labor market reports were much stronger than forecasts or in line with them. Paradoxically, the US dollar failed to rise (as of the time of writing). If the market is now refusing to buy the dollar, this means it is not pricing in FOMC monetary policy tightening. In this case, the pound may resume its trend.

The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I cannot expect anything other than a decline in the US currency. However, this decline appears to be postponed once again for some time. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my long-term expectations. Geopolitics prompted the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The prospects for FOMC monetary policy tightening remain ambiguous, while the market itself is constantly changing its expectations. Therefore, in my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and random in nature. I see no reasons for a large-scale advance by the bears.

Economic calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On September 7, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The economic backdrop will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

The long-term picture for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two latest swings and the formation of a series of buy signals, the bulls may still continue their advance. Unfortunately, the bears have controlled the initiative over the past week, and all the latest bullish patterns have been invalidated. The bears currently have technical grounds for an advance. Only the euro currency can save the pound. The liquidity sweep of the swing from May 1 triggered the decline, and a sell signal formed within the "inverted imbalance" 27. It is difficult to say how long the pound will continue to decline. Two bullish imbalances on EUR/USD could well stop the decline. The fact that the bears did not launch a new attack after the Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates that this report does not change the market's view of the Fed's rate decision in September.

Revisions proved even more important. June's figure was revised up by 11,000 (from 20k to 31k) and July's was revised up by 44,000 (from -23k to +21k). Together, employment over the two months was 55,000 higher than previously reported. In other words, the July jobs decline that prompted so much discussion simply didn't exist.

This report diverged from all leading indicators at once, and I regard the magnitude of that divergence as the day's key fact. ADP counted just 38,000 private?sector jobs — the weakest since January. The ISM services employment index remained in contraction for a second month at 47.8. The manufacturing ISM showed employment at 51.2 versus 52.8 a month earlier. All three signals pointed to slowing hiring, while the official data produced the best result of the year.

Who's right? I'm convinced the difference is not a survey error but methodology. ADP covers only the private sector and relies on its payroll client base, whereas local government education — which added 42,000 jobs — is outside that scope. ISM indices measure the share of firms expanding payrolls, not absolute hires; if hiring is concentrated in a narrow set of industries, ISM can still show weakness.

The composition of the gain supports this view. Accommodation and food services added 59,000 jobs versus a 12,000 monthly average over the year; local government education added 42,000; manufacturing 16,000; construction 22,000; healthcare 13,000. Almost all the increase was provided by two sectors, one of them public. That narrowness favors those arguing for a pause at the Fed and undercuts those who read the headline number as clear overheating.

Wage dynamics remain subdued, which is crucial for the Fed. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $37.75, with a 12?month increase of 3.1%. Average weekly hours rose 0.1 hour to 34.4. The lack of wage acceleration means second?round effects from higher energy prices have yet to materialize in the labor market.

This report materially changes the outlook for the September meeting. Christopher Waller had said he leaned toward holding rates if he saw inflation progress, and John Williams cited signs of disinflation. Both arguments relied on a weakening labor market, and that assumption has just fallen apart. I expect the odds of a 25?bp hike to move back into roughly the 65–75% range, with the CPI report on September 11 becoming decisive, since the dovish wing now lacks an employment?based argument.

Yet, despite the multi?faceted labor report, I will venture that the Federal Reserve still may raise interest rates on September 15–16.

Technically, for EUR/USD, the key task for buyers is to hold above 1.1641 — only that would open the way to test 1.1657. From there, the currency pair can reach 1.1673, though without participation from large players such a move seems unlikely. On a decline, I expect serious buying interest only near 1.1621; if demand does not appear, it would be wiser to wait for a new low at 1.1601 or look for longs from 1.1584.

For GBP/USD, the technical picture centers on nearby resistance at 1.3545, which pound buyers must first take. Only then can the pair target 1.3573, above which further gains will be difficult; the more distant target is 1.3596. On the downside, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3521. If they succeed, a range break would deal a significant blow to bulls and, in my view, push the instrument to 1.3501 with a prospect of reaching 1.3480.

A triumphant breach of Bitcoin's $80,000 psychological level amid dovish Fed rhetoric, and a historic synchronicity between crypto and gold as go-to havens against fiat depreciation

Investors focused on four key developments likely to set trends for months ahead: Bitcoin's triumphant push through the $80,000 psychological level amid dovish signals from the Fed; a historic synchronicity between Bitcoin and gold as primary hedges against fiat?currency debasement; and major corporate showdowns in the tech sector.

While Meta moves to seize AI leadership with a powerful new model, Muse Spark, Microsoft made a revolutionary step by disclosing detailed financials for its cloud division, Azure, for the first time and announcing a global business restructuring.

This review breaks down how these events are reshaping market reality and what trading opportunities arise at the intersection of macroeconomics and high technology.

Bitcoin conquers $80,000: how Fed doves fueled the crypto rally and what comes next

Thursday was a day of triumph for crypto. Bitcoin finally cleared the psychological $80,000 mark, with Fed moderation as the main trigger. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled that the Fed is in no rush to tighten monetary policy, instantly easing strain on risk assets.

In an exclusive comment to Reuters, Waller acknowledged that the three-month pace of core inflation fell from a worrying 4.76% in February to a comfortable 3.05% through July. That "encouraging" trend convinced him to support keeping the policy rate unchanged at the September meeting.

He added an important caveat: the annual PCE still sits at 3.3%, and if August inflation prints start creeping back up, the question of a rate hike will return to the agenda. But markets heard the positive tone on Thursday.

The dovish signal pushed prices higher: Bitcoin jumped roughly 5%, settling near $80,600. Ethereum and XRP also gained, rising about 4% and 8% respectively.

Before Waller's remarks, traders priced a nearly 70% chance of a September hike (per the CME FedWatch). After his comments, that probability plunged to 54.6%, helping fuel the powerful rally.

August had already been spectacular for the flagship crypto — a 25% monthly gain, the best in nearly two years. Bulls are now trying to hold the new level after briefly touching $80,000 at the end of last month.

ETF flows add to the optimism: despite slower inflows compared with record August, about $81 million of net new money flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs this week.

The decisive monetary policy battle will take place at the Fed's two-day meeting on September 15–16. Crucial input for policymakers will be the August CPI data released before the meeting.

Waller warned directly that if progress against inflation reverses, the Fed will not hesitate to make a "small adjustment."

Fundamentals remain fragile. At the July meeting, three Fed members voted to raise rates by 25 bps immediately. There are also upside risks to oil prices and geopolitical turbulence.

Waller candidly acknowledged that prices can be affected by "military conflicts, trade policy and even artificial intelligence." Still, investors are opting for optimism for now.

Macro shifts and regulator statements create trading opportunities from price differentials. All instruments and crypto pairs mentioned are tradable on the InstaForex platform.

To stay at the center of events and act quickly on key releases—potentially catching Bitcoin's next leg toward new highs—open an InstaForex trading account and download the mobile app. Trade comfortably where it's advantageous and secure.

Allies in a turbulent era: why Bitcoin and gold are rising in tandem

Forget old debates between digital and physical gold. Today Bitcoin and gold are dancing the same macroeconomic tune, displaying synchronization not seen since the 2020 shock.

Investors increasingly use both assets as a shield against fiat debasement amid massive US sovereign-debt expansion.

The catalyst for this unprecedented unity was US authorities' actions. Correlation jumped after the US Treasury more than doubled its debt-buyback program, which drove up long-term yields and, consequently, weakened the dollar.

Bitwise's new report, released Wednesday, shows the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and an ounce of gold surged to a six-year high. The market found a new foothold.

Numbers speak for themselves. In the second half of August, Bitcoin rallied about 25% — the best three-year performance. Gold rose more modestly but steadily, up roughly 5%, while traditional stock markets fell.

By Thursday, the trend had not only persisted but accelerated: Bitcoin firmly held above $80,000, and gold traded above $4,500 per ounce.

Experts agree: in times of global uncertainty, the lines between classic and digital safe havens blur.

"When things heat up, and macro forces get out of control, investors stop distinguishing between Bitcoin and gold. With growing risks of currency debasement, they're simply different forms of protection," says Andre Dragosh, head of European research at Bitwise. In such scenarios, Bitcoin increasingly looks like "gold on steroids."

A similar market setup last occurred in 2020, when governments and central banks launched unprecedented stimulus during the pandemic. Moreover, in late August, Bitcoin showed a negative correlation with the US dollar index, underlining that dollar weakness is the main fuel for this dual rally.

Meta's AI Ace: how Muse Spark revived the tech giant's stock amid fierce competition

On Thursday, Meta Platforms shares spiked more than 4% after management touted a new AI breakthrough. The upbeat news came as the company attempts to recover from a 10% year-to-date decline.

Alexander Wang, head of Meta's AI division, said the new Muse Spark 1.3 model reaches parity with leading competitors Anthropic and OpenAI in performance. He called it "the biggest jump in model performance we've achieved."

Wall Street awaits independent verification. Betting markets view the odds skeptically: the chance Muse Spark scores 55%+ on the Humanity's Last Exam this year is only about 48%.

What can the model do? Released September 2, Muse Spark 1.3 is a multimodal reasoning model with closed weights, supporting text, images and video, and offering an impressive one?million?token context window.

Internal benchmarks show Muse Spark excels in coding and long-context search. Its "max" reasoning mode scored 62 in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, ranking third overall behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Opus 5.

Wang told Bloomberg the model is "comparable to Claude Fable 5.1, outperforms OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol in coding, and surpasses any existing Chinese models."

Pricing is notable: the standard tier is $1.25 per million input tokens; a "contributor" tier is $0.10 per million tokens. The trade-off is that users must grant Meta rights to use their data for model training. Whether user data access outweighs open-sourcing concerns remains debated: weights for 1.3 will not be published, but an open 1.2 release is promised.

The AI rally is particularly meaningful against complex financial realities. Meta's Q2 2026 report (published July 29) was mixed: revenue rose 28% year?on?year to $60.80 billion, but diluted EPS was $6.18 — missing the $7.22 consensus due to margin pressure from litigation and severance costs. That broke a six-quarter streak of beats.

Meta also faces a formidable rival. Google remains a benchmark for investors: Google Cloud revenue grew 82% in Q2, 90% of Fortune 100 companies use Gemini Enterprise, and Gemini's monthly audience hit 950 million. Meta aims to narrow that competitive gap with its AI advances.

The AI arms race creates huge market volatility — and trading opportunities. Tech giants' shares react strongly to each release and statement.

End of the cloud mystery: Microsoft discloses Azure revenue and reshapes its empire

Wall Street long demanded Azure transparency, and on Tuesday Microsoft opened its books. The company released detailed financials for its cloud division for the first time and announced the first global reporting restructure since 2015.

Azure revenue impressed: $29.4 billion for the last quarter and $101.9 billion for the fiscal year ended June 30. This satisfies investors' demand for apples?to?apples comparisons with peers.

Now analysts can benchmark more directly: AWS reported $128.7 billion in 2025 calendar-year sales, while Google Cloud showed $24.8 billion in the last quarter.

But disclosure is only part of the story. Microsoft is restructuring reporting. It will move from three segments to two. The new reporting will start this fall with FY-2027 Q1 results.

Market attention will focus on two new groups. "Agents and Infra" combines Azure, Microsoft 365 commercial products and server licensing — a heavy infrastructure mix. "Devices and Consumer" will include Windows, Xbox, search & advertising, and LinkedIn.

These strategic moves at tech titans aren't dry corporate news — they're major market drivers creating volatility and trading opportunities.

You don't need to be institutional to participate. Shares and CFDs on these tech giants are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. Want to stay on top of global markets and profit from each corporate shift? Open an InstaForex account and download the mobile app to trade quickly, safely and anywhere in the world.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The test of the 156.50 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and decided to wait before the important U.S. data.

Currency interventions by the Bank of Japan are currently on hold, which is not surprising, as the market is awaiting the August U.S. employment report, which has become the main event of the week. The forecast calls for an increase in employment of around 50,000–60,000, with unemployment at approximately 4.1%, but the backdrop ahead of the release is clearly negative, as the entire week of U.S. labor-market data has been disappointing. For the yen, the outcome of the report is directly relevant. It will then become clear whether the effect of the Bank of Japan's currency intervention, carried out in coordination with the United States, will become firmly established, as it has already led to a stronger yen. I believe that even a strong NFP report will struggle to break against this trend, while a weak report would only increase pressure on the dollar and give USD/JPY additional downside momentum. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that the intervention changes the pair's underlying dynamics, as dollar buyers have to contend with the real risk of further intervention. I think that a weak employment report could accelerate the decline in USD/JPY, while data in line with forecasts, which would not rule out a September Fed rate hike, would provide the dollar with only limited support against the strengthening yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point is reached around 156.50 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 157.16 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.16, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.10 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.50 and 157.16 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 156.10 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.50, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.50 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.10 and 155.50 can be expected.

What the chart shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and instead trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.

The test of the 1.3530 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

Today, Andrew Bailey delivered a speech on central bank independence, but the pound paid no attention to it, which is telling. The Governor of the Bank of England began with a quote from Alexander Hamilton dating back to 1780, referred to Douglas North's definition of institutions as the rules of the game in society, and explained why independence emerged in the first place. He also addressed the concerns of critics who ask why an unelected institution has so much power. There was no reaction in the currency market for a simple reason: there is simply no conflict over the central bank's independence in the UK, while traders are waiting for U.S. labor-market data rather than philosophical discussions.

As for the NFP report, economists expect employment to increase by around 50,000–60,000, with unemployment at approximately 4.1%, but the entire week of U.S. labor-market data has already been disappointing. Let me remind you that ADP showed only 38,000 new jobs, the lowest figure since January, while the JOLTS report pointed to a decline in hiring, so confidence in the strength of employment has weakened considerably. Under these conditions, the pound becomes dependent on external factors. In my view, data in line with forecasts would not rule out a Fed rate hike in September, in which case the dollar would retain its advantage and pressure on GBP/USD could return. However, another significant disappointment in employment could put serious pressure on the central bank and push it toward a pause, which would weaken the dollar and support the British currency.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point is reached around 1.3534 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3561 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3561, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pound today can be expected only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3518 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3534 and 1.3561 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3518 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3494, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong pressure on the pound will return if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3534 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3518 and 1.3494 can be expected.

What the chart shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and instead trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.

The test of the 1.1622 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and instead waited for Scenario #2 for a buy trade to materialize. Ultimately, the second test of 1.1622 triggered this scenario, but the euro did not make a significant rise, for objective reasons.

The weak retail sales report confirmed that consumers remain a vulnerable area of the eurozone economy. Sales fell by 0.6% in July, while annual growth virtually disappeared, amounting to just 0.6%. The underlying structure only reinforced this picture: while food sales increased by 0.4%, non-food products fell by 1.4%. To me, this is a clear sign that higher energy costs continue to put pressure on disposable incomes, forcing Europeans to cut spending on everything except food. The single currency responded with a decline, but, as expected, there was no major sell-off. I still believe the euro has support ahead of the central bank's decision, and the EUR/USD pair is more likely to undergo a moderate correction. However, we may see considerable volatility today, and here is why.

The euro is approaching the key report of the week with heightened expectations, as the August NFP could set the tone for trading. The market expects employment to increase by approximately 50,000, with unemployment at around 4.1%, but the broader context is more important than the forecast itself. The entire week of U.S. labor-market data has been disappointing: the ADP report fell sharply, while job-opening data showed a decline in hiring, significantly increasing tension ahead of the official figures. However, in my view, even data in line with forecasts would not rule out a September Fed rate hike, as the regulator has made it clear that inflation is currently the priority. That is why I believe that only a significant third consecutive disappointment in employment could seriously undermine the dollar and force the Fed to consider a pause.

For the single currency, this means that a weak report would create room for the EUR/USD pair to rise, while a result in line with expectations would leave the initiative with the dollar. Given the weakness that has already accumulated in the U.S. labor market over the course of the week, I believe the risk of an adverse surprise for the dollar is elevated, and I would not rule out a sharp move in the euro immediately after the release.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1627 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1657. At 1.1657, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1615 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1627 and 1.1657 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1615 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1595, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return with strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1627 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1615 and 1.1595 can be expected.

What the chart shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and instead trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.

According to the data, eurozone retail sales fell by 0.6% in July after increasing by 0.2% in June, while the decline across the EU was 0.4%, with annual growth almost disappearing, falling to a symbolic 0.6%. Let me remind you that retail sales reflect consumer demand, and such a sharp decline indicates a noticeable cooling in demand. The structure of the decline is particularly telling, as food sales increased by 0.4%, while non-food products fell by 1.4%, meaning that Europeans continue to buy food while cutting back on everything else. In my view, this is typical consumer behavior when high energy costs eat into disposable income.

Germany was primarily responsible for the result, with a 3.4% monthly decline, followed by Spain. The German figures are particularly interesting against the backdrop of the recent jump in the Ifo index to 88.8, the upward revision to GDP, and the first annual increase in industrial production since the beginning of 2023. I believe the explanation is simple, as the economy is growing through exports and investment without benefiting consumers, who have lost 212,000 jobs over the past year.

The euro responded to all this with a decline, but, as I expected, there was no major sell-off. The market is looking ahead to the ECB meeting on September 10, where a rate increase to 2.5% is almost fully priced in, and this anchor kept the single currency from falling more sharply.

Now all attention is turning to the statistics that traders have been waiting for all week — the change in U.S. nonfarm employment for August. According to economists' forecasts, the increase is expected to be around 50,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at around 4.1%. Employment is considered one of the most important economic indicators, as the number of jobs created is used by the market to assess economic dynamics, while the unemployment rate reflects labor-market conditions. The report is particularly significant because the entire U.S. labor-market data flow this week has been frankly disappointing: ADP showed only 38,000 new jobs, the lowest figure since January, while JOLTS data pointed to a decline in hiring.

In my view, this backdrop makes Friday's report twice as important. If the data match forecasts, this will not in itself rule out a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, as the central bank shifted its focus toward prices following Jackson Hole. However, I believe that only a very significant second consecutive disappointment in the number of people employed could put pressure on the central bank and force it to seriously consider a pause.

The implications for the euro and the pound are straightforward. A weak report would weaken the dollar and support EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while a result in line with forecasts would most likely allow the U.S. currency to retain its advantage. I expect elevated volatility during the second half of the day, and in my assessment, the outcome will ultimately favor the dollar.

In the event of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EURUSD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1630 could lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1641 and 1.1657.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1615 could lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1600 and 1.1584.

For GBPUSD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3545 could lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3573 and 1.3596.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3521 could lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3501 and 1.3480.

For USDJPY

• Buying on a breakout above 156.40 could lead to a rise in the dollar toward 156.75 and 157.05.
• Selling on a breakout below 156.02 could lead to a decline in the dollar toward 155.56 and 155.23.

Mean Reversion Strategy (return) for the second half of the day:

For EURUSD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1636, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1604, followed by a return to this level.

For GBPUSD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3559, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3500, followed by a return to this level.

For AUDUSD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7217, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7192, followed by a return to this level.

For USDCAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3813, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3785, followed by a return to this level.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bullish despite the two-week decline. The latest completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the latest downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. However, the FOMC's stance, which remains highly contradictory, is currently more important for the dollar.

The fundamental background on Thursday allowed the bears to continue their attacks, but they unexpectedly retreated. The bears' retreat may have been related to today's U.S. labor market and unemployment reports, as many traders are expecting weak figures. Thus, the market may have started preparing for the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate in advance. I am not sure that these two reports will prove disastrous for the dollar, but in any case, they will not affect the overall picture. The official U.S. unemployment rate remains at a fairly low level, so a sharp deterioration or improvement in the situation should not be expected. Nonfarm Payrolls are a different matter: the figure has been declining for almost six months, while the latest annual revision resulted in an even larger reduction in the number of jobs created. Thus, even a figure above traders' expectations will not repair the dire situation in 2026. I still believe that the FOMC will not tighten monetary policy in September due to the weakness of the labor market. However, the bears may resume their attacks today if Nonfarm Payrolls surprise traders positively for the first time in a long while.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline and has consolidated below the upward trend channel. A new rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1588 has allowed for expectations of a small rise in the euro. Consolidation above the 1.1649 level would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1726. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,678 Long positions and closed 20,058 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-two weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid the apparent ceasefire and the market's hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 235,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is shrinking rapidly.

Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show greater interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war alternately appears to end and then resume. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Change in Retail Sales (09:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (12:30 UTC).

On September 4, the economic events calendar contains four entries, among which I cannot fail to highlight Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, the two most important indicators. The economic background may have a strong influence on market sentiment on Friday during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Buying the pair was possible on a close above the 1.1620 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1700. These trades can be kept open today, taking the U.S. reports into account. Selling is possible on consolidation below the 1.1620 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1551.

The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.

The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage remains intact. The bullish trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is broken, that is, below the 1.3414 level, or after two downward waves form.

The fundamental background on Thursday allowed the bears to make a local advance. The ISM Services Business Activity Index came in at 55.4 points in August, compared with the market expectation of 54.3 points. Thus, this was the first report this week to support the U.S. dollar, yet it had no effect on market sentiment. I do not see any point in highlighting the other reports, as the most important one was ignored. Traders are waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports, which will be released today, so the other indicators are of no significance. Let me remind you that the FOMC's September decision will largely depend on the state of the labor market in August, but at the same time, it will not be the determining factor (in my view). The U.S. labor market has been experiencing another difficult period for several months already. One report, even a positive one, will not change the overall trend. Thus, the dollar may receive only local support today. Next week, another highly important U.S. inflation report will be released. If it turns out that the Consumer Price Index slowed for the third consecutive time, the FOMC will 100% refrain from tightening policy.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair declined to the 1.3467–1.3482 support level, rebounded from it after a bullish divergence formed on the CCI indicator, reversed in favor of the British pound, and rose to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. A rebound from this level today would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.3467–1.3482 level. Consolidation above the 1.3638 level would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3657.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 16,269, while the number of Short positions increased by 6,220. The gap between the number of Long and Short positions is currently effectively as follows: 93 thousand versus 1,382 thousand. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still maintain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance raised no questions, but it does now, as the fundamental background has changed.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the British pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's position on monetary policy remains contradictory.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• U.S. – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (12:30 UTC).

On September 4, the economic events calendar contains three entries, each of which can be considered important. The economic background will influence market sentiment on Friday during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.3556 level on the hourly chart and on a close below the 1.3526 level, with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3447. Buying is possible today on a rebound from the 1.3526 level and on a close above 1.3556, with a target of 1.3633.

The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Concerns about energy-driven inflation are bolstering the prospect of Fed tightening and further constraining gold price gains.

Gold (XAU/USD) has eased slightly, interrupting a two-day advance amid a modestly stronger US dollar. Nonetheless, the metal remains above $4,450 and close to the weekly high reached yesterday as traders await the release of key monthly US employment data. The well-known nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report should provide additional signals about the Federal Reserve's likely strategy as markets pare back expectations for a September rate hike — developments that will materially affect the dollar and could add momentum to the precious metal.

TD Securities notes that "the nonfarm payrolls data due Friday is the next important event for the precious metals market," given market participants' exposure to "resurgent Fed hawkishness and strong volatility in energy markets." The bank, however, strikes a more upbeat long-term tone, saying it does not expect a sharp price collapse because the gold market's backdrop improves as the dollar depreciates and because Fed rate hikes are by no means guaranteed.

Ahead of the data, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he is inclined to keep the federal funds rate on hold at the next FOMC meeting provided inflation releases bring no surprises. Investors reacted: US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar softened, helping gold recover from a four-week low hit on Wednesday. Still, inflation risks linked to rising energy prices keep the door open for a rate increase later this month, which could allow the dollar to rebound from a one-and-a-half-week low and cap commodity price gains.

Oil prices are trading near highs not seen since July 24 amid renewed US–Iran tensions and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. In the context of the Middle East escalation, Iran struck US military bases in Kuwait and the UAE on Thursday. Meanwhile, US Vice President J. D. Vance said President Donald Trump has several options against Tehran — economic, military, diplomatic and covert. South Korea is also preparing to deploy forces to secure shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz by year-end.

These factors support a geopolitical risk premium that boosts oil and reinforces the US dollar's safe-haven appeal. Short-term gold price direction will, however, hinge on the upcoming US employment report.

Technically, gold has so far halted the recent corrective decline from around $4,700 — the highest level since May 14 — and is trading toward a modest weekly gain. A meaningful further advance would require convincing strength and a sustained break above the round $4,500 level and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' edge, so there remains hope for their victory. But if prices drop back below the 100-day SMA and the 200-day EMA, the bulls would likely lose momentum again.

This report matters not only in isolation but also in the context of recent Fed signals. After Kevin Warsh's high-profile Jackson Hole speech, the market materially increased the odds of a September hike. The Fed chair highlighted persistent inflation risks and allowed that policy might need to tighten further if key inflation indicators do not soften.

On the eve of NFP, however, Fed Governor Christopher Waller effectively pushed the debate back to square one by saying he is prepared to support leaving rates unchanged if inflation pressures continue to ease. As a result, hike odds that had been near 65% fell to roughly 50%.

The labor report therefore sits at the crossroads of monetary expectations. Strong payrolls will strengthen the hawks' case: sustained hiring will indicate the economy can tolerate tighter financial conditions and preserve scope for rate increases. Weak NFP, by contrast—especially after July's poor print—will bolster the Fed's doves.

Consensus expects about 58,000 new jobs in August, after a 23,000 decline in July, with a typical range of forecasts between roughly 45,000 and 65,000. The unemployment rate is broadly expected to remain at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise about 0.2% month-on-month, implying a slowdown in annual wage growth to roughly 3.0%.

The wage component can materially change how the market reads the entire report. If wages accelerate to 0.4% m/m or higher, Fed inflation concerns will intensify, and hawkish bets will rise. Conversely, weak wage growth (0.2%–0.1% m/m or below) will reinforce the narrative of cooling labor demand and lower inflation risks.

Another key element is the labor force participation rate. In July it fell to 61.4%, the lowest since early 2021 (it was 62.1% in January). At the same time unemployment declined to 4.1%. On the surface that looks paradoxical, but the causal chain is clear: people leaving the labor force are no longer counted as unemployed. In July, the labor force shrank by 264,000 while the population outside the labor force rose by 381,000. If August's unemployment reading remains low solely because participation has fallen, the Fed will struggle to spin that as a hawkish signal.

Context from recent labor indicators is important. ADP's private sector payrolls for August were a weak 38,000—the worst print since January—and JOLTS was mixed: openings rose to 7.27 million, but hires dropped to 5.05 million, and the hiring rate fell to 3.2%. In other words, the US labor market looks increasingly like "low hire, low fire."

Given lowered market expectations, a strong NFP will have outsized influence on policy pricing compared with a weak print. But if the actual result undershoots even modest expectations, the dollar will be under significant pressure. For example, an NFP gain below 40,000 (or a negative print), accompanied by a further fall in participation and wages rising no more than 0.2% m/m, would materially cut September hike odds below 50% and strengthen the case that Waller publicly made for a pause.

If NFP unexpectedly prints strong, Treasury yields will rise, the dollar will strengthen, and EUR/USD will attempt to return to the area of figure 1.15. But for a durable turn in the greenback's favor, more than a strong headline number will be required—a true "hawkish combination": high wage growth, stable unemployment, and no further decline in labor force participation. Otherwise, the pair will get another chance to hold above 1.1630 (the Tenkan-sen on the daily chart) and move toward 1.1660 (the H4 upper Bollinger Band) and, in time, 1.1710 (the D1 upper Bollinger Band).

A related, but less clear, picture surrounds HashKey Capital, which appears to have bought 1 million UNI for $6.4 million within a five-hour window, then immediately transferred the tokens back to Binance. Is that a genuine buy? Probably not—rapid transfers between probed addresses often serve to complicate tracing rather than signal a directional accumulation. It is therefore premature to infer a bullish posture by HashKey toward UNI. By contrast, Multicoin Capital presented a more transparent flow: the fund moved another 150,000 HYPE to Coinbase, about $12.8 million. Since July 28 the fund has sold HYPE for roughly $112 million, locking in a paper gain of about $64.1 million — a 134% return — which benefits the fund but gradually removes one of HYPE's larger institutional backers that had lent the asset a reputation for steady capital inflows.

Most ambivalent are Abraxas Capital's actions. The fund bought 16,554 ETH on the spot market, spending about $39.8 million, while two hedging accounts linked to the same fund hold short positions at Hyperliquid equivalent to 120,178 ETH, or $291.4 million—roughly seven times the fresh spot purchase. That construction is difficult to call a pure long bet; it looks more like a classic carry or hedged-carry approach, where the spot position provides collateral or yield while the large short protects the fund from directional downside. Taken together — the finished institutional sell-off, Multicoin's profit taking, and Abraxas's hedged rather than directional stance — the evidence points to large players managing risk and harvesting accrued gains rather than initiating new directional long bets. That means Ether is likely to find it harder in coming days to rely on institutional demand in the way Bitcoin has benefitted from its own technical rotation.

Trading recommendations:

A technical outlook for Bitcoin shows that buyers are targeting a return to $81,300, which would open a direct path to $83,600, and then to $85,600—a breach of which would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On downside moves, expect buyers at $79,200. A break below that area can quickly drag BTC toward $77,200. A farther target on weakness is $75,300.

A technical outlook for Ethereum unveiled a confirmed hold above $2,557 opens a direct path to $2,624, with a farther target around $2,684; a break above that level would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, expect buyers at $2,491. A drop below that area can quickly push ETH toward $2,443. The farther target on weakness is $2,385.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

The market turn was triggered by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks yesterday, in which he indicated he was prepared to support holding rates steady if price pressure continued to ease. He said his decision would be heavily influenced by August inflation data due next week. "But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike," he added, while noting that recent data show some signs of disinflation.

The market's reaction to that caveat was disproportionate to its content. Traders cut the probability of a rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting to roughly 50%, down from about 70% at the start of the week. Holders of gold benefited from this repricing since the metal pays no yield and gains when the opportunity cost of holding cash falls. Losers include those who had positioned for a hawkish outcome after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech—a sizeable group over the past week.

It is worth asking whether Waller actually said anything new. In my view, he did not, and that is the essential point. He simply reiterated that his decision will be data-dependent—a routine stance for a committee member. The market reacted sharply because, after Jackson Hole, positioning skewed more hawkish than the data warranted, and the first dovish signal prompted widespread position-squaring.

A second source of support for precious metals was the yen. The currency strengthened almost 2% on Thursday, recovering much of a month-long decline, as markets priced a greater chance of a Bank of Japan rate rise. It was the yen's best day since the coordinated Tokyo–Washington market intervention a little more than a month ago, and growing odds of another intervention added pressure on the dollar. The US currency slid to a May low, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.

The causal chain works through the dollar and benefits bullion from two directions simultaneously. A dovish Fed signal reduces yields on dollar assets, a prospect of BoJ tightening draws carry-trade capital back into the yen, and a weaker dollar mechanically lowers the foreign currency price of gold. It is a rare case in which policy moves in the two largest economies push the metal in the same direction.

The week has been jagged. On Tuesday gold plunged, losing almost 6% over three sessions amid renewed strikes on Iran and hawkish rhetoric, then bounced and now sits modestly higher for the week. The amplitude itself indicates the market has no stable view and is reacting to each incoming signal with amplified volatility.

I think the decisive input for gold will not be today's employment report but the inflation prints next week that Waller explicitly referenced. If the August CPI confirms disinflation, the probability of a September hike will fall below 40% and gold will have a case to push toward $4,600. A hot print would push hike odds back toward 70% and drive the metal back toward roughly $4,300. The main risk to this outlook remains geopolitical: any fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could lift oil and inflation expectations simultaneously, a scenario that tends to hurt gold through the interest rate channel even as it supports the metal's safe-haven appeal.

A technical picture for gold suggests that buyers need to clear resistance at $4,481 to target $4,540, above which further gains will be difficult without fresh momentum. The farther target is around $4,609. On the downside, bears will attempt to seize control of $4,425. If they succeed, a break of the range will inflict serious damage on bullish positions and push gold toward $4,372 with a prospect of extending to $4,304.

Waller framed his comments as a fork in the road with two equally plausible outcomes. "If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level," he said, adding: "But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike." Describing policy as somewhat restrictive, he warned that less dramatic inflationary strength could still push him toward a tighter stance.

The crucial moment came when he went on to say he is wary of the risk of tightening into falling inflation and suggested current policy settings might themselves be sufficient to return inflation to target. "I'm going to paraphrase John Lennon here. Give disinflation a chance," Waller said. "I'm not going to say let's wait until next year, but let's just wait and see if we get some improvement on this." Those words upend recent hawkish logic because, for the first time publicly, Waller openly weighs the risk of inaction against the risk of premature tightening.

Markets reacted immediately—and notably to the Q&A rather than to the speech itself. Traders cut the probability of a September hike to roughly 50% based on Fed funds futures. Risk assets and gold benefited, while the dollar slid to a May low, and those who had positioned for a hawkish outcome after Jackson Hole suffered losses.

Waller's remarks echo recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and challenge the market's post-Warsh expectation of a near-term hike. The balance of forces on the committee has shifted over the past week.

At least two influential officials have now publicly argued against a September increase. Williams on Wednesday cited evidence of easing inflation as tariff effects fade, while Waller on Thursday made a similar point: energy costs have risen but have not yet translated broadly into services inflation. Those leaning for a hike include Governor Michael Barr, who warned of the risk of entrenched price pressures, and three regional presidents who dissented in July. Chair Warsh has argued that financial conditions do not look restrictive.

Does that mean the committee is evenly split? I do not think so—the tilt is toward a pause. Williams, as New York Fed president, holds a permanent vote and is traditionally the committee's second most influential member, and Waller is a Fed governor. Two such officials publicly favor pause and carry more weight than three rotating regional dissenters.

Waller's Q&A also went beyond the rate debate to assert his preferred communication strategy, a three-part approach combining current policy views, an outlook, and—under certain conditions—the use of forward guidance. That is a direct divergence from the chair's stated reform to reduce forward guidance and cut back on public communications. Waller said he agreed with Chair Warsh that forward guidance was inappropriate now and in many situations but added that when it was needed, he thought it should be used. That caveat effectively amounts to a public disagreement over institutional reform and follows criticism in July that Warsh's views lacked sufficient clarity for markets. The dispute is now about both policy and how much the Fed should talk.

My base case is that the funds rate will remain unchanged at the September 15–16 meeting, and that the decisive input will be the September 11 inflation print that Waller flagged. If the August data confirm disinflation, a pause will likely be agreed without significant controversy, although two or three hawks may again vote against. The risk—noted by Waller himself—is that hotter-than-expected inflation could reverse his position and tilt the committee back toward tightening, since the current balance of power means a single influential vote can change the outcome.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD: buyers need to take 1.1640 to target 1.1660. From there a move to 1.1675 is possible, but achieving that without support from major players will be difficult. On the downside, any serious buying is likely only near 1.1620. If there are no buyers there, it would be prudent to wait for a fresh low at 1.1600 or consider longs from 1.1580.

GBP/USD: pound buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at 1.3494 to target 1.3515; a break above that level will be challenging. The farther target is 1.3531. On a decline, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3475. If they do, a break of the range will inflict a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3457 with a prospect of extending to 1.3435.

S&P 500 daily performance

The catalyst was comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller. He said that if August inflation data confirms recent progress, he is prepared to support keeping the federal funds rate at the current 3.75% at the next FOMC meeting. In his view, recent data shows signs of disinflation. The derivatives market reacted immediately: CME-priced odds of a rate move in September tumbled to a coin-flip — 50/50 — down from about 70% the day before.

Waller's remarks also filled a vacuum left after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stepped back from the practice of steering market expectations in advance. That role is now being filled by individual officials and investors' own interpretation of the data. Meanwhile, Treasury yields, whose recent rise has frayed nerves globally, eased slightly.

The corporate calendar added fuel. Nvidia shares rose by 1.8% after the company, with a market cap north of $5 trillion, agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93 billion — another move to expand its open-model ecosystem amid competition from Chinese developers. Navellier & Associates says the AI data-center boom is intact, and as autumn cools the weather, the firm expects equities to heat up on another wave of record corporate profits.

US nonfarm payrolls dynamics

However, it's too early to celebrate. Economists expect the payrolls report to show a 55,000 rise in jobs, roughly this year's average. The futures market is pricing in only about a 0.7% move in the S&P 500 in either direction, according to Citigroup. A "Goldilocks" print would ease rate-hike fears; an overly strong NFP would revive them. Initial jobless claims largely matched forecasts, while services sector activity posted its strongest monthly gain in six months in August.

In short, the market has priced in a soft landing, but the final verdict won't come from Christopher Waller; it will come from US jobs data.

Technically, the S&P 500 reclaimed fair value at 7,675 on the daily chart, enabling long positions. The odds of a completed 1-2-3 reversal have fallen, increasing the likelihood of a resumed uptrend. Recommendation: hold positions open.

This morning, US indices and Treasuries are pausing ahead of the August jobs report, an event that could determine the Fed's September rate decision. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the previous session's biggest one-day gain in a month. The 10-year Treasury yield eased by one basis point to 4.76%, while most of the curve remained muted. Brent crude is holding near $95.50/bbl and the dollar is flat. The lack of a clear directional bias across asset classes is notable — a rare moment when no one wants to be the first to take a position.

Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 55,000, following July's surprising decline. That outcome would be roughly in line with this year's average pace of job creation, signaling that the labor market is not collapsing but not overheating either. The market currently views the odds of a 25-bp hike in September as roughly even, so the cost of a forecasting error is higher than usual.

The Fed debate makes this report particularly consequential. Last week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's strong focus on price stability, but the jobs data could buy the committee time to judge whether current policy is sufficiently restrictive. In practice, a weak labor report would give the Fed formal cover to hold rates while retaining hawkish rhetoric. That outcome would be supportive for both equities and bonds but would erode confidence in the Fed's resolve since each delay in the face of above-target inflation undermines credibility.

The market needs a mildly weak payrolls print — weak enough to justify a pause, but not so weak that recession fears spike. How realistic is that? I think the odds are lower than the market assumes, given the recent data mix. ADP showed just a 38,000 rise in private payrolls in August, the smallest gain since January, and the ISM services employment index stayed in contraction for a second month at 47.8. Both indicators point to hiring materially below the 55,000 consensus. At the same time, the ISM services prices index surged to 72.6, the highest since August 2022. The combination of soft hiring and accelerating prices leaves the committee with no comfortable exit route.

European markets have their own story today. The Stoxx 600 ticked higher, and Volkswagen spiked by as much as 9.7% after announcing a large restructuring. Regional bonds lagged, with UK gilts underperforming most, consistent with a broader sell-off in sovereign debt amid budget concerns and pricier energy.

The yen also merits attention: it has retained most of its gain after a more than 2% advance on Thursday, reaching levels not seen since May and the previous intervention. This episode looks structurally different from past moves. Earlier, yen strength was driven by one-off interventions; the current move reflects unwind of carry trades ahead of the Bank of Japan decision, and that position adjustment is a more durable driver than a one-time policy purchase.

Today's payrolls report is shaping up as a fork in the road for at least three markets: equities, bonds, and FX. My base case is for the actual payrolls print to come in below the 55,000 consensus, closer to the 20–40k range, given the consistent weakness in ADP and ISM. That would push yields lower and support risk assets but would not strengthen the dollar, as markets would price a September Fed pause. The main risk to this view remains the familiar divergence between survey-based indicators and official data that surprised forecasters in July.

As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, buyers need to overcome the resistance level of 7,756 to confirm further upside and open a path to 7,774. Holding above 7,793 would further cement the bulls' case. On the downside, buyers must defend 7,737. A break below that level would likely drive the index back to 7,718 and open the way to 7,698.

Note that nearly $550 million of positions were liquidated from the market in the last 24 hours, of which $470 million were bearish stakes. At the same time, futures open interest jumped 7.79%, indicating that part of the inflow still comes from fresh money entering the derivatives market rather than from the closure of old positions. The behavior of big players on exchanges is also noteworthy: retail traders and whales reduced long exposure and shifted to net bearish positioning even as price rose.

Also, just yesterday, the total crypto market capitalization expanded by 4.49% to $2.72 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index returned to greed, repeating the late-August picture before the sharp reversal after Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. Given that a very important US labor market and unemployment report is due today, this situation could play a nasty trick on the crypto market, similar to Jackson Hole.

It is also worth noting that global net liquidity remains roughly $5 trillion below its peak, meaning the current rally can quickly end against a structurally thinner liquidity backdrop than in past bull cycles. The key level for bulls remains the 200-day moving average around $69,400; holding that level preserves a constructive technical picture even if a correction unfolds from current overheated values.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy scenario

Scenario No.1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the entry point around $81,200 is reached, with a target to rise to $82,200. Around $82,200, I will exit longs and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No.2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $80,500 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout, aiming for $81,200 and $82,100.

Sell scenario

Scenario No.1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the entry point around $81,200 is reached, with a target to fall to $80,500. Around $80,500, I will exit shorts and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario No.2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $81,200 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout, targeting $80,500 and $79,700.

Ethereum

Buy scenario

Scenario No.1: I will buy Ether today if the entry point around $2,520 is reached, with a target to rise to $2,547. Around $2,547, I will exit longs and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No.2: Ether can be bought from the lower boundary of $2,499 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout, aiming for $2,520 and $2,547.

Sell scenario

Scenario No.1: I will sell Ether today if the entry point around $2,499 is reached, with a target to fall to $2,474. Around $2,474, I will exit shorts and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario No.2: Ether can be sold from the upper boundary of $2,520 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout, targeting $2,499 and $2,474.

Notably, eurozone business-activity data by themselves did not provide support. The services index fell compared with July, and the composite PMI, according to final S&P Global data, remained at 52.0 — the same as in July. Neither the downward revision nor a stagnant composite index prevented the pair from continuing its gradual appreciation, confirming that eurozone fundamentals do not drive demand for the euro at the moment.

Producer-price data added arguments for a hawkish European Central Bank stance: the PPI rose 1.6% in July and 5.8% year-on-year, per Eurostat. Formally, this could support the euro on its own, but against the backdrop of currency intervention, this factor looks secondary.

Also noteworthy: even a strong US services report failed to move traders — the ISM Services jumped to 55.4 in August from 54.1 in July. The explanation here is again interventions and profit-taking ahead of the much more important US labor report due today.

In the first half of the day, eurozone retail sales for July are due: a 0.3% rise is forecast after a 0.3% decline in June, though this relatively old data is unlikely to materially change euro dynamics. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak, and German industrial orders and Italian retail sales are scheduled. No UK data is due, but Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak; he may comment on recent price dynamics and persistent service-sector labor issues. Without clear hints on the BoE's future stance, high volatility in the pound is unlikely.

The main focus of the day, however, is the US. The Non-Farm Payrolls report is expected: after the disappointing July print of -23k, consensus calls for a rise of +55k and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. If the actual number significantly exceeds the forecast — say 100–120k — the dollar could regain leadership versus the euro, pound and other risk assets. If the print matches the forecast or is worse, dollar pressure will intensify, and we should expect a solid recovery in the euro and pound by week's end. Additional context will come from average hourly earnings and private payrolls, but the market will focus mainly on the headline employment change.

Technical notes and intraday levels (EUR/USD):

• On the hourly chart, long positions can be considered on pullbacks: false break of 1.1621, false break of 1.1601, or longs on a bounce from 1.1584 aiming for short 15–20 pip moves.
• Short positions are logical on a false break of 1.1641, especially since morning volatility may be limited.
• If bulls break and hold above the range, expect a larger move to 1.1684, where shorts on a failed breakout are appropriate, or sell on a rebound from 1.1673 after weak US data, targeting 15–20 pips.

Technical notes and intraday levels (GBP/USD):

• Decisive Bailey comments could push the pair above 1.3545: a break and hold there offers buying opportunities toward 1.3573 and 1.3596, from which selling on a rebound (target ~225 pips from the swing) is logical.
• Shorts from 1.3545 (previous day high) are justified on a false breakout, expecting the pair to remain in the range, or from a false breakout of 1.3573.
• Bears' near-term target is 1.3521: a drop and a false break there would be grounds to go long, continuing the reversal that began on September 3. A break of 1.3521 opens the move to 1.3501, where longs are again appropriate on failed holds, or buy a bounce from 1.3480 for ~15–20 pips.

All these scenarios for both pairs hinge on one figure coming out this afternoon. The market trades on expectations — whether the dollar reclaims the initiative or interventions, together with a weak NFP, send the euro and pound into a new leg of appreciation will be clear by Friday evening.

The price test of 156.18 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential — especially after the large decline observed the previous day. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

The US services report was strong and inflationary, but the dollar will not gain support due to active currency intervention by the United States and the Bank of Japan, which has led to its weakening. For the yen, intervention remains a powerful driver of strength, as it is not a one-off episode but ongoing support for the national currency from the BOJ in coordination with the US. In my view, the intervention factor currently determines the USD/JPY price. As long as central banks maintain pressure, the yen retains the advantage, especially given the recent acceleration in Japan's services PMI and Ueda's rhetoric about policy normalization.

It is worth noting that ongoing interventions materially change the balance of power because dollar buyers against the yen must reckon with the real threat of renewed intervention. I believe that while authorities show readiness to act, USD/JPY's attempts to rise will encounter resistance. Nevertheless, I keep in mind the strong US price signal: if interventions ease, hawkish price signals from the US could quickly help the dollar regain some lost ground.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 156.50 (the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target to rise to 157.16 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.16, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 156.10, with the MACD indicator in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 156.50 and 157.16.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.10 level (the red line on the chart) is breached, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.50, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers will return at any moment — we only need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.50 while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 156.10 and 155.50.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3501 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the pound. As a result, the pair rose and exceeded the target level of 1.3523, allowing about 30 pips of profit to be taken.

A strong US services report would have set the tone on any other day, but this time the dollar ignored it. The ISM Services index rose to 55.4, business activity jumped to its highest since November 2022, and new orders showed their best reading in almost two and a half years. It is encouraging that the share of firms cutting staff fell from 19% to 17.1%, although employment remained in contraction. Overall, the services economy looks robust, and I think this signal should not be underestimated. The pound nevertheless strengthened against the dollar because the US currency weakened under pressure from currency intervention. The US and the Bank of Japan actively entered the market, and those actions offset the report's positive impact, depriving the dollar of support.

Today the British currency will spend the first half of the day without domestic drivers, as no UK data are scheduled; attention will focus on Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks. I do not expect new policy signals from him, but his assessment of recent price and labor market data can set the tone for the pair. Given recent reports showing accelerating services inflation alongside weakening employment, the governor's comments could tilt the balance either way. In my view, a cautious stance would quickly reapply pressure to GBP/USD by reducing expectations of imminent tightening, while emphasizing inflation risks would support the pound.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on execution of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point around 1.3547 (the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target to rise to 1.3572 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3572, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Expect pound strength today only after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3530, with the MACD indicator in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3547 and 1.3572.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3530 level (the red line on the chart) is breached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3505, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3547 while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3530 and 1.3505.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1610 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair reached the target level of 1.1632.

The US services report turned out to be outright strong, but the dollar did not react to it, and that, in my view, is the main point in today's picture. Business activity jumped to 61.7, and new orders to 60.9, the best reading since February 2023. Employment, however, remained in contraction at 47.8, which reflects a personnel shortage rather than weak demand. The price component proved far more important, surging to 72.6. The reason is clear: fuel has been among rising items for seven months in a row, while tariffs and the Middle East conflict have returned to the list of main supply-chain problems. The scale of the AI boom also stands out. For the Federal Reserve, this is an obvious argument for tightening, and I still consider a September rate hike quite likely. However, the dollar ignored all this because the US and the Bank of Japan were actively conducting currency intervention that weakened it. The single currency took advantage of the moment, and EUR/USD moved up. I believe the intervention effect can keep the euro afloat in the near term, at least until US labor market data are released.

Today the euro enters the first half of the day with a focus on German industrial orders and eurozone retail sales. Industrial orders show how confidently the bloc's largest economy looks to the future, and retail characterizes consumers' willingness to spend; through these channels, the data influence European Central Bank policy expectations. I believe that even a disappointing print will not provoke a strong move, because the central bank's hawkish tilt currently supports the euro. In the event of weak reports, I allow only a small pullback in EUR/USD, but not a major sell-off, since the market expects an ECB rate hike on September 10 and price pressures persist. In my view, absent strong negative surprises, the euro's initiative will be determined more by dollar dynamics than by German or eurozone data.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought if the price reaches around 1.1636 (the green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 1.1657. At 1.1657, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. Expect euro strength only after very strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1622, with the MACD indicator in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1636 and 1.1657.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the level 1.1622 (the red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1602, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1636 while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1622 and 1.1602.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.