The euro is trading around 1.1531, rebounding after reaching the psychological low of 1.15. EUR/USD is bouncing around this area and is likely to continue rising in the coming days, reaching either the 7/8 Murray level around 1.1596 or the upper band of the descending trend channel at 1.1615.

If the euro continues to fall in the next few hours, we could expect it to reach the lower band of the descending trend channel around 1.1484 and could even reach the 6/8 Murray level around 1.1474.

The sharp drop from the resistance zone around 1.1650 seen last week could lead to a recovery in the euro. Therefore, if it continues to bounce above 1.1511, it could be considered a buying opportunity in the coming days, potentially reaching 1.1630.

A pullback towards the resistance zone located at the 7/8 Murray level around 1.1596 could be seen as a selling point in the coming days, with targets at 1.1474.

The Eagle indicator is giving a negative signal, so we expect a technical rebound before EUR/USD resumes its downward cycle.

Gold is trading around $4,317.95 within a descending trend channel formed in April 2016, and is currently reaching the upper band of this channel.

Given that gold is accumulating and consolidating around $4,310, we could expect a technical rebound, potentially reaching the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375.

If gold consolidates below $4,300, the outlook could be negative, and we could expect it to reach the daily S_1 support level around $4,265 and the daily S_2 support level around $4,204.

We must closely monitor gold's movements. A sharp break below the descending trend channel could accelerate its decline to the psychological level of $4,000 in the short term, or the price could find support around the 5/8 Murray level located at $4,062.

A technical bounce above $4,310 could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions with targets at the 6/8 Murray level and the 21-period SMA around $4,430. We could ultimately expect it to reach the 200-period EMA around $4,550.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal. So, after a technical bounce in gold towards the strong resistance at the 6/8 Murray level, the bearish cycle could resume. Gold could reach the psychological level of $4,000 in the coming days.

The sharp increase of 170,000 in employed people in the U.S. non-farm sector led to a strengthening of the dollar and a decline in risk assets. The employment report showed that the U.S. economy created far more jobs than expected, fueling expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Amid growing forecasts of a tightening of monetary policy, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies.

The European currency and the British pound, closely tied to overall market sentiment toward risk assets, have experienced the most negative impact from the positive shift in the U.S.

In the first half of today, data on the change in factory orders in Germany and the Sentix investor confidence indicator for the Eurozone will be released. These macroeconomic reports are crucial for understanding the current state and prospects of the German economy. Special attention will be paid to German orders, as their dynamics are among the leading indicators of future manufacturing activity. A decline in this indicator could significantly impact GDP expectations for Germany and, consequently, for the Eurozone as a whole. Weak results will serve as a negative signal, confirming the industrial sector's weakness.

The Sentix indicator, in turn, reflects the sentiments of institutional and retail investors regarding the current and expected situation in the Eurozone. A high confidence level traditionally correlates with capital inflows and higher asset valuations, while a decline in the indicator, as expected, may signal rising risks and investors' readiness to reduce their appetite for riskier assets.

As for the pound, there are no data from the UK today, so there will be few reasons for the GBP/USD pair to recover. The absence of new economic data means that the pair will be influenced primarily by external factors, particularly the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Any statements or hints of further Fed rate hikes could exert significant pressure on the pound, causing it to decline against the dollar. The lack of positive internal news from the UK in recent days only exacerbates the situation.

If the data align with economists' expectations, it would be best to act on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy will be optimal.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 1.1535 may lead to the euro rising to the area of 1.1560 and 1.1580;

Sell on a breakout of level 1.1510 may lead to the euro falling to the area of 1.1480 and 1.1448;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 1.3345 may lead to the pound rising to the area of 1.3375 and 1.3407;

Sell on a breakout of level 1.3317 may lead to the pound falling to the area of 1.3290 and 1.3256;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 160.43 may lead to the dollar rising to the area of 160.72 and 160.91;

Sell on a breakout of level 160.24 may lead to dollar losses in the area of 160.02 and 159.83;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1541 on a return below this level;

I will look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1501 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3360 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3307 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7070 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7035 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3959 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3935 on a return to this level;

For Opening Long Positions in GBP/USD:

The pound collapsed on news that the May U.S. labor market report exceeded all economists' forecasts, increasing the likelihood of rising inflation and, consequently, of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the second half of this year. Today, there are no reports from the UK, so there will be few reasons for the GBP/USD pair to recover. If the pair continues to decline, only the formation of a false breakout around the support level of 1.3317 will provide a point of entry for long positions, with a recovery to the level of 1.3346, formed by the end of today. A breakout and a retest of this range from top to bottom will increase the chances of GBP/USD strengthening, triggering stop-loss orders for sellers and creating a suitable entry point for long positions, with the possibility of reaching 1.3375, where I expect a more active appearance of bears. The furthest target will be at 1.3407, where I plan to take profits. If GBP/USD drops and there is no buying activity at 1.3317, which is more likely, pressure on the pound will increase again, leading to a move toward the next support level of 1.3290. Only the formation of a false breakout there will create suitable conditions for opening long positions. I intend to buy GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from the low of 1.3256, targeting a 30-35 pip intraday correction.

For Opening Short Positions in GBP/USD:

Pound sellers demonstrated their strength last Friday, regaining control of the market. The only challenge for them today could be positive news from the Middle East, which is unlikely to materialize. If the pair sees a correction, I expect the first appearance of bears in the area around 1.3346. Only a false breakout at this level will be grounds for opening new short positions, targeting a decline to the support level of 1.3317. A breakout and retest of this range from bottom to top will deliver a larger blow to buyer positions, triggering stop orders and opening the way to support at 1.3290. I expect a more active appearance of buyers there. The furthest target will be at 1.3256, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD moves higher and there is no activity at 1.3346, buyers will have a chance at a larger recovery at the start of the week, with substantial movement towards 1.3375, where the moving averages favor the bears. I plan to open short positions there only after a false breakout. I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.3407, but only in anticipation of a 30-35 pip intraday correction.

Recommended for Review:

In the COT (Commitment of Traders) report for May 26, both long and short positions decreased. The fact that the Bank of England may soon be forced to raise interest rates to combat inflation is increasingly being discussed by representatives of the central bank, but this has not yet impacted buyer positions, as the situation in the Middle East is still unresolved, and it is quite difficult to predict what will happen next. The report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 10,196 to 57,978, while short non-commercial positions fell by 13,006 to 119,376. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,721.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline for the pair.

Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of traditional daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3270 will act as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving average (indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart;
• Moving average (indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart;
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence – convergence/divergence of moving averages): fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9;
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period – 20;
• Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain criteria;
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders;
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders;
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

For Opening Long Positions in EUR/USD:

The sharp increase in employment in the U.S. non-farm sector strengthened the dollar and led to declines in risk assets, including the European currency. All of this indicates ongoing inflation pressures, even as the economy continues to create new jobs. The higher inflation is, the greater the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of this year.

Today, in the first half of the day, data on factory orders in Germany and the Sentix investor confidence indicator for the Eurozone will be released. Poor performance in these indicators will likely maintain pressure on the euro, leading to a decline towards the new support at 1.1506. Only the formation of a false breakout there will provide an entry point for long positions, targeting a recovery of the pair to 1.1534 by the end of today. A breakout and a retest of this range will serve as confirmation to buy euros, anticipating a stronger surge towards the resistance at 1.1560. The furthest target will be the high at 1.1579, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying activity at 1.1506, pressure on the euro will intensify, leading to a larger decline for the pair. In this case, sellers will try to reach the next interesting level at 1.1480. Only if a false breakout forms will there be a suitable condition for buying euros. I plan to open long positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1448, targeting a 30-35 pip corrective rise intraday.

For Opening Short Positions in EUR/USD:

Sellers made their presence felt on Friday and now fully control the market. If the pair rises today, I expect bears to first appear around the resistance level of 1.1534. A false breakout at this level will provide a good entry point for short positions, anticipating a further decline to the support level of 1.1506. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a retest from the bottom to the top, will facilitate a larger sell-off in euros, providing an additional opportunity to open short positions as prices move towards 1.1480. The furthest target will be the area of 1.1448, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD moves upward and there is no active bearish action around 1.1534, the euro may recover significantly. In that case, it would be best to hold off on short positions until the larger level of 1.1560. I will sell there only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1579, targeting a 30-35 pip downward correction.

Recommended for Review:

In the COT (Commitment of Traders) report for May 26, both long and short positions decreased. Traders are still pricing in a potential increase in interest rates in the Eurozone, but they are doing so cautiously, as the situation in the Middle East is still in a critical phase, and nothing is resolved definitively. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 10,196 to 223,055, while short non-commercial positions fell by 6,009 to 193,629. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 7,237.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is occurring below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline for the pair.

Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of traditional daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1470 will act as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving Average: Identifies the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart;
• Moving Average: Identifies the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart;
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; SMA – period 9;
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20;
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements;
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders;
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders;
• Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.

However, this is unlikely to be the end. Blockchain analytics data from Arkham Intelligence has recorded a troubling movement: over the past week, Fidelity's storage, which holds part of the Bitcoin reserves of Strategy, has decreased by approximately 15,000 coins. This is not a minor technical movement — 15,000 BTC at current prices is worth over $1 billion. Where exactly the coins have gone remains unknown, but in light of recent events, the market interprets this as a clear signal: Strategy is preparing for another sale.

Remember that the company sold 32 Bitcoins at the end of May — its first sale in three and a half years — and documented this in an official SEC filing. At that time, it appeared symbolic. Now the disappearance of 15,000 coins from storage sounds entirely different.

It is evident that everyone is waiting for Monday. If Saylor announces the sale of Bitcoins to service debt obligations, it will provide the company with some temporary relief — but at the same time, confirm what skeptics have long warned: the Strategy model is operating at its limit.

The worst part is that any announcement of a sale will occur at a time when the market is at its most vulnerable, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing outflows and the number of buyers decreasing.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at around $63,400, targeting a rise to $65,800. Around $65,800, I intend to exit the buy positions and immediately sell on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.Scenario 2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $62,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $63,400 and $65,800.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $62,300, targeting a drop to $60,000. Around $60,000, I intend to exit the sell positions and immediately buy on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $63,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $62,200 and $60,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at around $1,688, targeting a rise to $1,793. Around $1,793, I intend to exit the buy positions and immediately sell on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario 2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,650 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $1,688 and $1,793.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,650, targeting a drop to $1,518. Around $1,518, I intend to exit the sell positions and immediately buy on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario 2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,688 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $1,650 and $1,518.

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a powerful decline on Friday, which was triggered solely by one event - the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Much has been said about this report, so I won't repeat it. It's worth noting that, in addition to the Non-Farms, wage and unemployment data were also published. However, the first report did not attract any interest, and the second matched projections. Therefore, the market focused only on the Non-Farms, and only because the values of this report were very resonant. Thus, the three-week flat is over, and we need to figure out whether further declines in the pair are expected. Given that geopolitics remains tense and Iran and the US cannot reach an agreement, further strengthening of the dollar seems likely. Considering the possible Federal Reserve tightening by the end of the year, dollar strengthening seems logical. Yet, we would like to remind you that these are only two factors supporting the U.S. currency. There are numerous other factors acting against the dollar.

Technical analysis indicates a resumption of the downward trend, but whether it will continue remains a big question. If Tehran and Washington somehow sign a deal, demand for the U.S. currency will begin to fall. If inflation in the U.S. starts to slow down, the Fed will not face the dilemma of whether to tighten monetary policy.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, three trading signals were generated. The first buy signal near the critical line was meaningless to pursue, as only 20 pips above was positioned level 1.1657. The second sell signal, along with the Non-Farm data, allowed for short positions. The third sell signal formed during the movement. Thus, traders could have opened one short position and gained a good profit.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 2. On the weekly timeframe illustration, it is evident that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but for some time, the dollar has been the "reserve currency." However, this process may now be coming to an end.

We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the European currency, but there are plenty of factors for the American dollar to decline. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but as this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will return to normal. And it may already have expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past few months, the pair has not gotten too close to this line.

The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group increased by 12,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 7,000. Consequently, the net position rose by 21,400 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD on 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense; it is not getting worse, and Washington and Tehran may only dream of signing a preliminary agreement. If there are no new signs of renewed war in the Middle East and a memorandum is indeed signed, the dollar will begin to lose ground. But for now, we see neither a deal nor a revival of war.

On June 8, we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1631) and Kijun-sen (1.1586). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has moved in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Monday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone and the US. Hence, traders will have nothing to react to, and Monday may prove boring and corrective.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders can consider short positions targeting level 1.1444 if the price remains below level 1.1542. Long positions can be opened in case of consolidation above 1.1542, with a target of 1.1585.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) – thick red lines around which the price may end its move. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines: trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Meanwhile, experts have begun analyzing why Bitcoin lost 50% of its value and experienced a new crash last week. It turns out that the reasons are quite apparent. For example, the sharply rising cost of electricity amid the war in the Middle East has combined with the decline in Bitcoin's value over the last eight months. When Bitcoin is worth more than $100,000, it is pleasant for miners. When the price drops to $70,000, and electricity costs rise by 1.5 times, the pleasure diminishes. Thus, not only are investors shifting capital into more promising sectors like AI from a profit perspective, but miners themselves are also moving into the AI sector, as that area requires computational power.

At the same time, miner rewards decrease every four years due to the "halving." Some "experts" believe that the "halving" itself should lead to a doubling of the value of "digital gold," as otherwise it would simply become unprofitable to mine. We believe that this predictive logic is flawed. As the "halving" decreases miner rewards by half every four years, interest in the mining process will decline. According to forecasts, the last Bitcoin block will not be mined until at least 2100. This means that during this time,, Bitcoin should increase in value by at least 2x every 4 years. It is not difficult to calculate that by 2100, one coin should be worth... $15 billion.

It is logical to assume that this will not happen under any circumstances unless hyperinflation "devours" fiat money each year. This is why we do not believe in forecasts of perpetual Bitcoin growth. For Bitcoin to rise continuously (in the long term), demand for it must constantly increase. However, demand is not limitless. Liquidity is not limitless. Beyond Bitcoin, new technologies are constantly emerging that also offer profits to investors. A striking example is artificial intelligence. By 2100, a multitude of new technologies could be invented; therefore, it is unrealistic to think that Bitcoin will be bought and valued forever.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of a three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of a long-term upward trend beginning. A new bearish FVG pattern has formed in the $68,000 – $70,700 area, so this area serves as a point of interest (POI) for traders in the coming weeks. Patterns may also form on the 4-hour timeframe, but first, the crash must complete, and a correction must begin.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

The daily timeframe continues to show the downward trend that began last August. The key selling pattern has been and remains the bearish Order Block on the weekly timeframe. As we have warned, the movement triggered by this signal may be strong and prolonged. We do not believe it is over, as there are no signs of a completed downward trend for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near term, Ethereum may continue to decline with targets of $1,391 and $788. An upward correction can be expected when at least some bullish patterns or other signs of an upward price reversal form on the 4-hour timeframe. New areas of POI for selling should be sought on the daily timeframe.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• CHOCH – break of the trend structure.
• Liquidity – Liquidity, Stop Losses, pending orders, which market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Area of price inefficiency. Prices pass through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, prices tend to return to and react from such areas as the main trend continues.
• IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to collect liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

The key macroeconomic releases and events for the upcoming week could also provoke significant volatility in the EUR/USD pair. In focus are the reports on inflation growth in the U.S. and the June meeting of the European Central Bank.

On Wednesday, June 10 (a week before the June FOMC meeting), the U.S. will release data on May Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth. This release will help to understand whether the recent surge in inflation is sustainable and to what extent rising energy prices have "leaked" into the core components of the indicator.

According to preliminary forecasts, the overall consumer price index is expected to accelerate in May to 4.2% year-over-year, its highest level in the past three years. However, an increase in overall inflation is unlikely to surprise traders, as high energy prices remain the key driver of its increase. As a result, market participants will pay special attention to the core CPI. The rise in oil prices has already led to a significant increase in gasoline and transportation costs, which, of course, gradually translates into the prices of goods and services. However, the extent of this transfer remains an open question. Most analysts expect the core CPI to accelerate to 2.9% in May (up from 2.8% the previous month). If this figure exceeds forecasts and surpasses the psychologically significant three percent mark, it will indicate that inflationary pressure extends well beyond the energy sector and is becoming more stable.

In other words, if the core CPI rises to 3.0% or exceeds that level, the dollar will again see increased demand amid heightened hawkish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions. However, if the core CPI comes in below expectations, the market will likely ignore the rise in overall inflation, attributing it to energy-related factors.

The next day (i.e., Thursday, June 11), another important inflation indicator will be released in the U.S. – the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May. Last month, the April data shocked the markets with a sharp spike: month-over-month, the Producer Price Index accelerated to 1.4%, while year-over-year, it jumped to 6.0% (the highest since December 2022). It appears that this month the PPI will again hit multi-year highs, given the dynamics of the leading indicators for May. In particular, the ISM services price sub-index surged to 71.3 (a four-year high), reflecting heightened price pressures and rising business costs. The corresponding manufacturing ISM sub-index, although it dropped by two points, remains at an extremely high level. All of this suggests that the PPI is likely to continue accelerating, increasing the risk that price pressure will spill over into overall inflation in the coming months.

According to preliminary forecasts, the overall Producer Price Index is expected to accelerate in May to 6.8% year-over-year (up from 6.0%), while the core index is expected to rise to 5.3% (after an April increase to 5.2%).

Again, if the PPI acceleration is broad and not solely focused on energy (i.e., if the core index shows a more significant increase), the EUR/USD pair will come under substantial pressure as market concerns that the PPI will support a high CPI level will intensify. Conversely, if the core index falls below 5.2%, the market's reaction will be muted, even if the overall PPI comes in "green."

In addition to the inflation reports, the results of the ECB meeting on Thursday, June 11, will also affect the dynamics of EUR/USD. Most analysts expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This is the basic and most anticipated scenario, which was already priced in last week when the Eurozone inflation data was published. It was reported that the overall consumer price index rose 3.2% (the highest since November 2023), while the core CPI accelerated to 2.5% (the strongest growth rate since April of last year).

In other words, the prospect of a rate hike is unlikely to provide significant and sustainable support for the euro and, consequently, for buyers of EUR/USD. Now the intrigue lies not in whether "the rate will be raised or not," but in whether the ECB will limit itself to a single move. If Christine Lagarde indicates that the June increase is a "precautionary" one-time measure due to geopolitical factors (which are inherently temporary), the EUR/USD pair will come under pressure, despite the actual tightening of monetary policy. However, if the head of the central bank suggests it may resort to additional rate hikes in the second half of the year, the euro will strengthen across markets, including against the dollar.

However, considering the latest GDP growth data for the Eurozone, the ECB, in my opinion, will implement a "dovish rate hike." That is, it will effectively tighten policy while simultaneously conveying soft commentary. Let me remind you that on Friday, final data on Eurozone economic growth for the first quarter was published. It turned out that GDP shrank by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter (initially, a weak but nonetheless positive 0.1% growth was announced). Year-on-year economic growth was also revised downward significantly to 0.3%, down from the expected 0.8%.

Thus, based on preliminary fundamental forecasts, the EUR/USD pair retains potential for further declines. The same is indicated by the "technical" picture. On the four-hour chart, the price has confidently breached the lower Bollinger Bands line, and the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bearish "Line Break" signal. On the daily chart, the pair is at the lower Bollinger Bands line and below all Ichimoku lines. All of this indicates a priority for short positions. If sellers manage to hold below the support level of 1.1530 (the lower Bollinger Band on the D1 timeframe), the next targets for the downward movement will be the marks of 1.1500 and, in the medium term, 1.1430 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the W1 timeframe).

The GBP/USD currency pair traded last week in a manner similar to the EUR/USD pair. Thus, we can draw the same conclusions. Throughout the week, the market ignored fundamentals, macroeconomics, and even geopolitics, only reacting on Friday to the truly resonant U.S. labor market report. Therefore, the further rise of the U.S. dollar against the British pound is also in question, in our opinion.

However, it is time to shift our focus to the new week. We see no sense in reviewing all macroeconomic reports and other events since the market ignores 90% of them. Therefore, we will focus on the two most important events. The first is the European Central Bank meeting. One might immediately wonder: what does the ECB have to do with the British pound? Firstly, if the euro reacts to the ECB meeting, it may pull the sterling along with it. Secondly, we need to understand whether there will be any market reaction to a possible tightening of monetary policy. It can be said that the market pays no attention to this factor at the moment, as in recent weeks the EUR/USD pair has been either flat or experiencing dollar growth. Thus, if this event is ignored, we will understand that the market still sees only geopolitics. And even that is only influenced by individual, significant, confirmed reports and news.

The second important event of the week is the U.S. inflation report for May. According to expert forecasts, the consumer price index may rise from 3.8% to 4.0-4.2%. In any case, this will be the third consecutive acceleration of inflation, which the Federal Reserve cannot ignore. Recent remarks from neutral members of the FOMC (rather than those aligned with Trump) indicate that the Fed's position is favorable for waiting and watching. However, if they wait too long, they may see double-digit inflation. We understand that such statements may sound like fantasy now, but inflation in the US could double in just three months. The conflict in the Middle East is not only unresolved; it is not even moving towards de-escalation and peace.

If Iran contributes to the blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, it will trigger a new surge in energy prices. Then the inflation rate of 4.2% will look like a mere detail. The main thing to understand now is that the conflict in the Middle East is ongoing, meaning inflation could continue to rise. If the Fed does take this factor into account, it will soon begin considering options to tighten monetary policy. This aspect could support the U.S. currency.

In general, the fate of the dollar in the coming weeks will depend on unpredictable events. We do not know at what inflation level the Fed will start considering raising the key rate. We do not know when the conflict between Iran and the US will end or when the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Therefore, reactions must be based on the situation.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of June 7 is 73 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Monday, June 8, we expect the pair to move within a range bounded by 1.3267 and 1.3413. The upper linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3245

S3 – 1.3184

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3367

R2 – 1.3428

R3 – 1.3489

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy; therefore, we do not expect long-term growth for the U.S. currency. However, 2026 is turning out to be super positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be taken with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3267. The market situation often changes, and it continues to primarily track geopolitical news, which is not uniform.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, it means the trend is currently strong;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;
• The CCI indicator — its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair has shown notable movement this week. For four days, there was a total flat, which is best seen on the hourly timeframe, and on Friday, the pair fell by over 100 pips, thus concluding a three-week flat. The sharp rise of the American currency was triggered exclusively by the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Notably, all other positive data from across the ocean was blatantly ignored by the market. On the 4-hour timeframe, it is clearly visible that the flat between 1.1597 and 1.1658 lasted for three weeks. Only Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls managed to push the EUR/USD pair out of the sideways channel.

Thus, one can immediately conclude that the Non-Farm Payrolls report and the market's reaction to it are more of an exception than the rule. Next week, the market may again ignore macroeconomics and fundamentals, waiting for a geopolitical resolution in the Middle East, reacting to the CCI indicator's oversold condition, and recalling the very likely tightening of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Therefore, we are not at all sure that the downward trend will continue, and we will see another fall next week.

The market continues to selectively price in geopolitical factors and, to a lesser extent, macroeconomic and fundamental factors. As we mentioned, almost all important reports from the US last week were ignored, except for the Non-Farm Payrolls. The market paid no attention to ECB monetary policy and has simply grown weary of geopolitics. This week, the US and Iran made no progress in negotiations, despite Trump's claims that an agreement was again supposed to be "signed literally within days." Independent media continue to note that the parties more frequently launch new strikes or issue new demands and ultimatums in negotiations than they do concessions and steps towards signing a deal.

Therefore, we maintain the opinion that there will be no agreement in the near future. Is this factor enough for the dollar to continue to rise? In our view, no. If negotiations drag on for another two years, will the dollar rise during this time? Unlikely. The dollar receives support from time to time, but it should be understood that the global fundamental backdrop continues to weigh on it. Trump's policies are the main reason for the fall of the US currency in 2025, and in 2026, it worsened further. Simply because the dollar remains, in the minds of many investors, a "safe-haven currency," it has appreciated in recent months.

We should not forget about the technical picture as well. On the weekly timeframe, the entire "mind-boggling" rise of the dollar is best seen. Since July of last year, the pair has essentially been in a flat. The upward trend that began in 2022 remains and is supported by the trendline. Thus, a decline in the pair to the level of $1.08 will not break this trend.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of June 7 is 64 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between levels of 1.1459 and 1.1587 on Monday. The upper linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating a potential change in trend toward an uptrend. The CCI indicator entered the overbought area and formed two "bearish" divergences, which warned of the beginning of a downward correction that is still not complete. On Friday, it entered the oversold area, signaling a possible end to the correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1475

S2 – 1.1414

S3 – 1.1353

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1536

R2 – 1.1597

R3 – 1.1658

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, which is presumably a correction within the global upward trend. The global fundamental background for the dollar remains extremely negative, and only the geopolitical factor regularly supports it. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1475 and 1.1459. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to detach from the geopolitical factor, but in recent weeks, the dollar has been in demand as hopes for peace in the Middle East have diminished.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, it means the trend is currently strong;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;
• The CCI indicator — its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Ethereum is trading around $1,599, rebounding after reaching its low of around $1,545 on April 20, 2025.

Ethereum has lost over 70% of its value since its all-time high around the psychological level of $5,000. Therefore, we could expect a technical rebound above this important monthly support level around $1,540 in the coming days.

Ethereum has been trading within a descending trend channel since August 2025. We believe that if a recovery above $1,500 occurs, ETH could reach the 3/8 Murray level around $1,875 and even the upper band of the weekly descending trend channel around the psychological level of $2,000.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy ETH/USD above $1,550 with targets at $1,875 and $2,000.

The technical chart shows a potential weekly downside. Thus, if a pullback to $1,875 occurs, the bearish cycle could resume, and Ethereum is expected to reach the 2/8 Murray around $1,250 in the coming weeks or even months.

Ethereum is experiencing significant depreciation. As Bitcoin continues its fall, we could expect Ethereum to reach the psychological level of $1,000 due to its strong correlation with Bitcoin, since analysts expect Bitcoin to collapse to the psychological level of $50,000.

In the coming days, we will buy Ethereum at attractive price levels, provided it consolidates above $1,550, with a target at the psychological level of $2,000.

The gold chart shows it's in the midst of a sharp decline and is likely to continue its downward movement until it reaches the lower band of the descending trend channel around $4,288 in the coming days.

If gold consolidates below $4,375 in the next few hours, which represents strong support, we could expect a continuation of the downward movement, reaching the $4,320 weekly support, $4,301 monthly support, and finally $4,288.

We could expect gold to consolidate around $4,320 or $4,300 to anticipate a technical rebound. The trading idea could be to buy around this zone, always with great caution, as bearish pressure persists.

At current price levels, we can sell gold below $4,375, as we observe a breakout of the Murray 6/8. Therefore, the target price would always be around $4,320 or $4,288.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we believe that gold will continue to fall in the coming days to reach the 5/8 Murray level around the psychological level of $4,000, but before this happens, we should expect a rebound towards the 21-period SMA.

Bitcoin is trading around $60,532, reaching price levels last seen in February 2006 when it hit $59,735. Bitcoin could reach this low in the coming hours. If a technical bounce occurs, it could form a double bottom pattern, which would signify a sustained recovery in the short term.

The daily Bitcoin chart shows that it has reached oversold levels, and a recovery is technically expected in the coming hours.

Bearish pressure will continue over the next few days, so if a technical bounce occurs towards the strong Murray 2/8 support zone located around $68,750, the instrument could resume a bearish cycle.

Given that Bitcoin has reached the psychological level of $60,000, this level is key and decisive. Therefore, we would look for buying opportunities in the coming hours, always with a stop-loss order below the February low, with targets at the 0/8 Murray level around $62,500 and finally around $68,750.

If our strategy is bearish, we should wait for a technical bounce in the coming hours and then take short positions. A clear area to sell could be the $65,000 zone. This level also served as support in March and has now become strong resistance, so if Bitcoin reaches these levels, we could open short positions.

The daily chart shows that the Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so as long as the BTC/USD price remains below the 21 SMA and below the 200 SMA, any technical bounce in the medium term will be considered a signal to continue selling.

Geopolitical developments are also currently favoring the dollar, as Tehran and Washington remain unable to sign even an interim agreement on peace and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the dollar continues to hold a stronger position relative to both the euro and the pound. Although the current technical picture appears relatively straightforward and suggests further downside for the pair, I would caution traders against drawing definitive conclusions. The dollar received strong support today, but nobody knows what developments may occur over the weekend or on Monday. If an unexpected breakthrough occurs and Donald Trump ultimately signs a deal with Iran, demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar could quickly begin to fade.

Therefore, bears have received an excellent opportunity to extend their advance thanks to the U.S. labor market data, but maintaining this momentum will require additional support from geopolitical developments. The more negative the geopolitical backdrop becomes, the more favorable it will be for the dollar.

Overall, the situation surrounding the Middle East conflict is currently better than it was a few months ago when the parties were engaged in full-scale military confrontation. Nevertheless, conditions can change rapidly. Over the past several weeks, there have been numerous potential triggers for renewed escalation, and only the apparent reluctance of both sides to resume active hostilities has prevented a return to broader conflict.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's substantial declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still in effect and could potentially be extended for another 60 days. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations relies largely on statements from Donald Trump. Iran continues to present a very different perspective.

The situation continues to shift between positive and negative developments. At present, the market still retains some confidence that an agreement can be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited.

The technical picture is currently as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a price reaction, while Bearish Imbalance 19 remained close to invalidation for two weeks but may ultimately generate a valid sell signal. As a result, the technical outlook shifted dramatically within a single day. However, it could reverse again in the coming days, as geopolitical developments have recently been changing several times per day.

Friday's economic backdrop supported both the bears and the U.S. dollar. The Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered unexpectedly strong figures for both May and April. Following that report, the unemployment rate became largely irrelevant, although it remained unchanged at 4.3% in May. As a result, bears are currently benefiting from favorable conditions, but the key question is how long this environment will persist.

The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect long-term weakness in the U.S. dollar. The conflict between Iran and the United States has changed little in that regard. Geopolitical tensions have temporarily restored the dollar's safe-haven appeal, but the overall outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging. If the U.S. economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its tightening cycle, and the conflict between the United States and Iran evolves into a prolonged confrontation, then the dollar could potentially strengthen toward the 1.3100–1.3000 level. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar cannot be fundamentally altered by a single strong Nonfarm Payrolls report.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

June 8: The economic calendar contains no significant releases. Therefore, economic data is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, although the most recent signal is a sell signal. Therefore, provided geopolitical developments do not interfere, bears may continue targeting the lows formed on May 18 and March 31. Liquidity may be collected below those swing lows, after which bulls could regain control if the geopolitical backdrop becomes more supportive.

At present, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which the conflict between Iran and the United States continues for months or years. Consequently, any appreciation of the U.S. dollar is likely to have limited long-term potential.

As a result, the pair has now fallen well below Imbalance 13, making it likely that this pattern will be invalidated. If that occurs, traders will be left with a sell signal from Bearish Imbalance 15, and the technical picture could shift dramatically. However, even under current conditions, bulls still retain some hope for a recovery. Today's candlestick may simply represent a liquidity sweep below the most recent lows, while the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States over the weekend—as suggested by Donald Trump—could sharply reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. Therefore, although today's U.S. data was genuinely strong, it is unlikely to support dollar strength for another one or two weeks on its own.

Market direction and trader sentiment will continue to depend primarily on geopolitical developments. If Tehran and Washington ultimately sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, and make progress in negotiations on the nuclear issue, bears may be forced to retreat, allowing the euro and the pound to resume their upward movement. However, the probability of such an optimistic scenario appears to be declining with each passing day.

Under current conditions, traders can only anticipate further downside following the reaction from Bearish Imbalance 15 and the formation of new patterns. If geopolitical developments begin to favor bulls—that is, if an agreement between Iran and the United States is reached in the foreseeable future—the euro may resume its advance in line with the broader bullish trend. However, it is now unclear how far the euro could decline before that occurs. The current technical picture provides stronger support for the U.S. dollar.

It is worth noting once again that the dollar's entire rally between January and March was driven primarily by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears retreated, and bulls dominated trading for more than a month. At present, the likelihood of a broader agreement appears to be declining again, while the market remains highly skeptical of reports suggesting an imminent resolution of the conflict or a deal between Iran and the United States. Consequently, geopolitics continues to exert underlying pressure on EUR/USD.

Friday's economic data triggered a sharp and decisive move by the bears. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, while April's figure was revised upward to 179,000. As a result, the Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a double blow to bullish sentiment and the euro. Today's dollar rally is fully justified by the data, but further gains are likely only if Iran and the United States fail to reach an agreement in the near future.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not significantly reduced them. Structurally and globally, the policies that contributed to the dollar's sharp decline last year have not changed. In the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen amid risk-off flows, but this factor would require continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East. I still do not believe in a sustainable bearish trend for the euro. The dollar has received temporary support, but it remains unclear what factors could provide bears with a lasting advantage over the longer term.

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

June 8: The economic calendar contains no significant releases. Therefore, the economic backdrop is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a broader bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed significantly three months ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. Therefore, bulls may resume their advance if they receive even modest support from geopolitical developments.

At present, traders can only maintain short positions initiated from Bearish Imbalance 15 and wait for new patterns to emerge. The decline in the pair has been driven by objective factors. Without the strong U.S. labor market and unemployment data, the support zone associated with Imbalance 13 would likely have held. However, that support failed, giving bears an opportunity to launch a stronger offensive. Geopolitical developments remain the key market driver.

Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the levels I identified during the first half of the day. As a result, I ended the session without any trades.

In the second half of the day, a spike in volatility is expected, although it is unlikely to be critical for the USD/JPY pair, as markets are still anticipating potential intervention from the Bank of Japan. Nevertheless, it is important to review the upcoming data. The release sequence begins with the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for May. This indicator is closely monitored as a barometer of the U.S. economy, reflecting job creation outside the agricultural sector. Immediately after the employment report, the unemployment rate will be released. The final key release will be average hourly earnings. This indicator is of primary importance to the Federal Reserve, as wage growth is one of the main drivers of inflation. Higher inflation increases the likelihood of interest rate hikes, which generally strengthens the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 160.01 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 160.35 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.35, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the pair is possible in the case of negative news regarding agreements and strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.88 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 160.01 and 160.35 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakdown below 159.88 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.49, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of weak data releases. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 160.01 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward 159.88 and 159.49 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3434 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a long position in the pound. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.3456.

In the second half of the day, we will receive the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data. Sustained employment growth typically indicates strong economic recovery, but economists expect the indicator to slow significantly compared to April. Weak figures may raise concerns about economic slowdown and lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar. The unemployment rate, in turn, reflects the overall labor market situation. A decline in unemployment is traditionally seen as a positive signal; however, a sharp drop may indicate an overheating labor market and potential inflationary pressure. Finally, changes in average hourly earnings play a critical role in assessing inflation risks. Rapid wage growth can stimulate higher consumer spending, which in turn may fuel inflation—something negative for the Federal Reserve and may force it to maintain a relatively tight monetary policy stance.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3468 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3510 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3510, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the pound today is only possible if U.S. data is weak. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3448 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.3468 and 1.3510 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown below 1.3448 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3390, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3468 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward 1.3448 and 1.3390 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1624 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a long position in the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar is expected to become significantly more active, as three key macroeconomic indicators are released that are directly related to the future course of Federal Reserve monetary policy. The sequence of events begins with the publication of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for May. This indicator is one of the most closely watched measures of the health of the U.S. economy, reflecting job creation dynamics outside the agricultural sector. Immediately after the employment report, the unemployment rate will be released. The combination of these two indicators—job creation and unemployment—provides a comprehensive view of the labor market, which in turn directly influences consumer spending and inflation expectations.

The highlight of the day's economic agenda will be the release of average hourly earnings data. This indicator is of particular importance to the Federal Reserve, as wage growth is one of the key drivers of inflation. All of these figures will undoubtedly be closely analyzed in the context of future Fed interest rate decisions, which will determine the further direction of the U.S. dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, euro purchases can be considered when the price reaches the 1.1652 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1689. At 1.1689, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. A rise in the euro today is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1631 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.1652 and 1.1689 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1631 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1585, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1652 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward 1.1631 and 1.1585 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

In the second half of the day, we will see three important U.S. reports. The most significant will be the change in Nonfarm Payrolls for May. In addition, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will also be released.

These labor market indicators are key to understanding the current state of the U.S. economy and, consequently, to forecasting further actions by the Federal Reserve. The change in Nonfarm Payrolls is the most closely watched report. Strong employment growth typically signals solid economic recovery and may push the Fed toward tighter monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes.

The unemployment rate, in turn, reflects the overall picture of the labor market. A decline in unemployment is traditionally considered a positive signal, but a sharp drop may indicate an overheating labor market and potential inflation growth. Finally, changes in average hourly earnings are a critical component for assessing inflation risks. Rapid wage growth can lead to increased consumer spending, which in turn may fuel inflation—something the Federal Reserve aims to avoid.

In case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.1645 – potential rise to 1.1665 and 1.1684
• Sell breakout below 1.1630 – potential decline to 1.1600 and 1.1575

GBP/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.3480 – potential rise to 1.3510 and 1.3550
• Sell breakout below 1.3445 – potential decline to 1.3411 and 1.3370

USD/JPY

• Buy breakout above 160.00 – potential rise to 160.24 and 160.43
• Sell breakout below 159.80 – potential decline to 159.60 and 159.40

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1666 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.1610 and return above this level

GBP/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3478 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3428 and return above this level

AUD/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 0.7150 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 0.7120 and return above this level

USD/CAD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3900 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3868 and return above this level

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The inability to resolve the standoff between the United States and Iran has already led to a deadlock that has created significant uncertainty across financial markets.

When the conflict began in March, the market reaction was relatively straightforward. A clear pattern emerged in which rising oil prices supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on precious metals. Although this relationship remains in place, it is no longer as consistent as before. For example, declining oil prices no longer necessarily lead to gains in gold. Recently, there have been periods of uncoordinated market movement, with both oil and gold prices falling simultaneously.

In the Forex market, the U.S. Dollar Index has spent the last two weeks trading within an exceptionally narrow range—the narrowest seen over the past year. Certain currency pairs, such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD, have experienced substantial declines in recent days compared with EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, their influence on the index remains relatively limited.

The key factor behind this market behavior is the prolonged crisis in the Middle East, with no clear resolution in sight. The conflict continues to put pressure on energy prices, contributing to higher inflation. Central banks are monitoring the situation closely, recognizing that if the issue remains unresolved, they may be forced to raise interest rates to combat inflation, which could further weigh on already fragile economies.

Every day, news headlines are filled with reports of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, followed by reports of their suspension, only for discussions to resume again shortly afterward. Market participants must also take into account the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and President Donald Trump, who continues to express confidence that progress is being made. Markets appear increasingly skeptical of these statements, which is reflected in the significant reduction in directional price movement across many assets. While market swings were substantial from March through mid-May, they have narrowed considerably over the past two weeks. At the same time, volatility remains elevated. This volatility is being driven by erratic intraday price action, with assets often rising during the session before falling back close to the previous day's closing levels.

Even the release of important economic data has been unable to stabilize market conditions. In the past, traders would actively react to such reports by buying or selling assets, particularly currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar.

Today, markets will receive a series of labor market reports, including U.S. unemployment data, Nonfarm Payrolls, and several other important indicators. Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added 85,000 jobs in May, down from 123,000 in April.

This raises an important question: will the market react meaningfully to the data?

The answer is difficult to determine. Since April, when reports reflecting the post-conflict period began to be released, the market has largely ignored labor market data. The same could happen today. Market attention remains heavily focused on developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon, and the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran. As a result, the reaction to the Nonfarm Payrolls report may once again be muted. Even if a reaction occurs, it is likely to be less pronounced than under normal circumstances.

What can be expected from markets today?

In my view, the current environment of uncertainty is likely to persist until either the conflict ends, a clear signal emerges that it is approaching resolution, or central banks begin raising interest rates. Any of these developments could trigger more decisive and sustained market movements, particularly in the currency market.

Forecast of the Day:

#SPX

The S&P 500 futures CFD is trading below the 7550.65 level. Against the backdrop of persistent market uncertainty and potentially weak U.S. employment data, the index could decline toward 7494.00. Under this scenario, short positions may be considered around 7526.37.

#USDX

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade within a sideways range of 98.90–99.40. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could push the index toward the lower boundary of the range near 98.00. A potential selling level may be located around 99.17.

On the lower timeframe, I can identify a classic three-wave bullish corrective structure. Following the completion of this structure, a new downward trend segment began to develop, which logically should take the form of an impulsive wave sequence. If this assumption is correct, we should expect the formation of a five-wave structure within wave C of the higher degree, with targets below the 1.1400 level. Are there sufficient fundamental reasons to expect such a strong strengthening of the U.S. dollar? Not with complete certainty. However, the market is increasingly losing confidence in the prospect of a deal between the United States and Iran, which is supporting sellers.

EUR/USD gained 15 points on Thursday, but overall once again showed a very limited trading range. During the day, the market received no meaningful information from Christine Lagarde's speech, leading me to conclude that no important statements were made. In addition, for the first time in a long while, there were no geopolitical headlines from either Trump or Iran. As a result, we witnessed another uneventful trading day. The pair continues to form corrective wave 4, which has taken the shape of a sideways range.

However, attention should shift this morning to the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the U.S. unemployment rate. Just a few months ago, these reports were key drivers of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Now, however, inflation driven by the conflict involving Trump in the Middle East has moved to the forefront. Since we continue to hear about a potential agreement between the United States and Iran without seeing any concrete results, conditions in the oil, gas, and fuel markets could continue to deteriorate over time. This may trigger a new round of inflationary pressures. Consequently, the Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on inflation dynamics than on labor market conditions in the near term. Therefore, today's reports are not as important as they were several months ago.

Nevertheless, they cannot be considered secondary. The U.S. labor market recovered during 2026, although not completely. If the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates, it could trigger another period of economic cooling. For this reason, the regulator is not rushing to tighten monetary policy, even though inflation has increased by 1.4 percentage points over the past two months. Such a move could weaken labor market conditions again and slow economic growth. However, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates if inflation continues to accelerate. The U.S. inflation report for May will be released next Wednesday.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the broader upward trend segment (lower chart) and, in the shorter term, within a corrective structure. At present, wave 5 may be forming, potentially as part of wave C. The entire wave C structure (if the current wave count is correct) could ultimately complete far below the 1.1400 level. However, such a substantial decline would require significant geopolitical support. Otherwise, the bearish wave sequence could become truncated and complete only slightly below the 1.1600 level.

On the higher timeframe, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to develop with targets near 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There is never complete certainty regarding market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The British pound is attempting to establish itself slightly above the 200-day SMA following yesterday's reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. However, reports that Hezbollah had rejected the proposal led to a correction in the pound's exchange rate. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3424 after reaching an intraday high of 1.3460 yesterday.

GBP/USD is also attempting to advance amid falling oil prices, which partially offset various uncertainties related to the Hezbollah situation.

Meanwhile, military activity continues in the Middle East, with Israel carrying out strikes in southern Lebanon. According to Al-Hadath, the Israeli army has begun withdrawing troops from Dibbine in southern Lebanon. Iran has reaffirmed the importance of a ceasefire for progress in peace negotiations with the United States.

A swift resolution of the regional conflict could ease inflationary pressures, as major central banks are expected to keep interest rates at current levels. Other central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), have tightened monetary policy by 75 basis points this year, citing the impact of energy shocks and disruptions to oil supplies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the benchmark for the U.S. market, fell by 5% to $91.11 per barrel. This is weighing on the U.S. dollar, as a close relationship exists between oil prices and currency valuations. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, declined by 0.21% to 99.38.

In the United States, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30 exceeded expectations, coming in at 225,000 compared with the previous week's revised reading of 212,000. The four-week moving average rose to 214,750 from 208,250 previously.

In May, announced job cuts increased from 83,387 to 97,006, with nearly 39% of the reductions occurring in the technology sector. This represented an increase of approximately 16% compared with April.

Despite this, the labor market continues to show resilience as traders await the release of the May Nonfarm Payrolls report. The report is expected to show job growth of 85,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

In the United Kingdom, amid an ongoing political crisis and speculation regarding his future, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing growing dissatisfaction within his party, which is reportedly seeking a replacement following disappointing local election results.

Additional support for the pound comes from recent comments by Bank of England officials. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that, without factors related to the situation in the Persian Gulf, inflation could already have reached the Bank's 2% target. Two days ago, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene emphasized that the case for raising interest rates is becoming increasingly compelling.

Financial markets are currently pricing in approximately 47 basis points of potential Bank of England rate increases in 2026, implying expectations of at least two rate hikes by the central bank.

The table below shows the percentage change in the British pound against major currencies today. The pound posted its strongest performance against the Canadian dollar.

From a technical perspective, the pair continues to trade within a sideways range between key moving averages. The 200-day SMA serves as immediate support, followed by the psychological level of 1.3400. The nearest resistance is provided by the 20-day SMA, after which bulls will face the challenge of overcoming the 100-day SMA. However, as long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears retain the advantage.

During Friday's Asian session, the euro is posting a modest gain of 0.15%, as traders remain optimistic about the outcome of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate within a sideways range, constrained by key moving averages. Immediate resistance is provided by the 20-day SMA at 1.1645, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1670 and the 200-day SMA near 1.1679.

A breakout above these levels would open the way for a test of the 100-day moving average, located at the psychological level of 1.1700.

On the other hand, the nearest support is located at the May 21 low of 1.1575. If this level is broken, the next targets would be the April 6 low at 1.1504 and the March 30 low at 1.1443.

As the oscillators remain in negative territory, bears continue to hold the advantage in the market.